Search results for: timing model

Authors: Pricillia Priska Sianita

Abstract:

An aesthetic facial profile is one of the goals in Orthodontics treatment. However, this is not easily achieved, especially in patients with Class II Division 1 malocclusion who have the clinical characteristics of convex profile and significant skeletal discrepancy due to mandibular growth deficiency. Malocclusion with skeletal problems require proper treatment timing for growth stimulation, and it must be done in early age and in need of good cooperation from the patient. If this is not done and the patient has passed the growth period, the ideal treatment is orthognathic surgery which is more complicated and more painful. The growth stimulation of skeletal malocclusion requires a careful cephalometric evaluation ranging from diagnosis to determine the parts that require stimulation to post-treatment evaluation to see the success achieved through changes in the measurement of the skeletal parameters shown in the cephalometric analysis. This case report aims to describe skeletal changes cephalometrically that were achieved through orthodontic treatment in growing period. Material and method: Lateral Cephalograms, pre-treatment, and post-treatment of cases of Class II Division 1 malocclusion is selected from a collection of cephalometric radiographic in a private clinic. The Cephalogram is then traced and measured for the skeletal parameters. The result is noted as skeletal condition data of pre-treatment and post-treatment. Furthermore, superimposition is done to see the changes achieved. The results show that growth stimulation through orthodontic treatment can solve the skeletal problem of Class II Division 1 malocclusion and the skeletal changes that occur can be verified through cephalometric analysis. The skeletal changes have an impact on the improvement of patient's facial profile. To sum up, the treatment timing on a skeletal malocclusion is very important to obtain satisfactory results for the improvement of the aesthetic facial profile, and skeletal changes can be verified through cephalometric evaluation of pre- and post-treatment.

Keywords: cephalometric evaluation, class II division 1 malocclusion, growth stimulation, skeletal changes, skeletal problems

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Authors: Zhou Jianhong

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Model averaging is a desirable approach to deal with model uncertainty, which, however, has rarely been explored for Poisson regression. In this paper, we propose a model averaging procedure based on an unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance for the Poisson regression. Simulation study shows that the proposed model average estimator outperforms some other commonly used model selection and model average estimators in some situations. Our proposed methods are further applied to a real data example and the advantage of this method is demonstrated again.

Keywords: model averaging, poission regression, Kullback-Leibler distance, statistics

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Authors: Eisa Younes Alblooshi

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Counterterrorism strategies, to be effective and efficient, require a sound understanding of the dynamics, the interlinked organizational elements of the terrorist outfits being combated, with a view to having cognizance of their strong points to be guarded against, as well as the vulnerable zones that can be targeted for optimal results in a timely fashion by counterterrorism agencies. A unique model regarding the organizational imperatives was evolved in this research through likening the terrorist organizations with the traditional commercial ones, with a view to understanding in detail the dynamics of interconnectivity and dependencies, and the related compulsions facing the leaderships of such outfits that provide counterterrorism agencies with opportunities for forging better strategies. It involved assessing the evolving organizational dynamics and imperatives of different types of terrorist organizations, to enable the researcher to construct a prototype model that defines the progression and linkages of the related organizational elements of such organizations. It required detailed analysis of how the various elements are connected, with sequencing identified, as any outfit positions itself with respect to its external environment and internal dynamics. A case study focusing on a transnational radical religious state-sponsored terrorist organization was conducted to validate the research findings and to further strengthen the specific counterterrorism strategies. Six different variants of the business model of terrorist organizations were identified, categorized based on their outreach, mission, and status of any state sponsorship. The variants represent vast majority of the range of terrorist organizations acting locally or globally. The model shows the progression and dynamics of these organizations through various dimensions including mission, leadership, outreach, state sponsorship status, resulting in the organizational structure, state of autonomy, preference divergence in its fold, recruitment core, propagation avenues, down to their capacity to adapt, resulting critically in their own life cycles. A major advantage of the model is the utility of mapping terrorist organizations according to their fits to the sundry identified variants, allowing for flexibility and differences within, enabling the researchers and counterterrorism agencies to observe a neat blueprint of the organization’s footprint, along with highlighting the areas to be evaluated for focused target zone selection and timing of counterterrorism interventions. Special consideration is given to the dimension of financing, keeping in context the latest developments regarding cryptocurrencies, hawala, and global anti-money laundering initiatives. Specific counterterrorism strategies and intervention points have been identified for each of the respective model variants, with a view to efficient and effective deployment of resources.

Keywords: terrorism, counterterrorism, model, strategy

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Authors: Solange Adechian, Michèle Balage, Didier Remond, Carole Migné, Annie Quignard-Boulangé, Agnès Marset-Baglieri, Sylvie Rousset, Yves Boirie, Claire Gaudichon, Dominique Dardevet, Laurent Mosoni

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Studies have shown that timing of protein intake, leucine content, and speed of digestion significantly affect postprandial protein utilization. Our aim was to determine if one can spare lean body mass during energy restriction by varying the quality and the timing of protein intake. Obese volunteers followed a 6-wk restricted energy diet. Four groups were compared: casein pulse, casein spread, milk-soluble protein (MSP, = whey) pulse, and MSP spread (n = 10-11 per group). In casein groups, caseins were the only protein source; it was MSP in MSP groups. Proteins were distributed in four meals per day in the proportion 8:80:4:8% in the pulse groups; it was 25:25:25:25% in the spread groups. We measured weight, body composition, nitrogen balance, 3-methylhistidine excretion, perception of hunger, plasma parameters, adipose tissue metabolism, and whole body protein metabolism. Volunteers lost 7.5 ± 0.4 kg of weight, 5.1 ± 0.2 kg of fat, and 2.2 ± 0.2 kg of lean mass, with no difference between groups. In adipose tissue, cell size and mRNA expression of various genes were reduced with no difference between groups. Hunger perception was also never different between groups. In the last week, due to a higher inhibition of protein degradation and despite a lower stimulation of protein synthesis, postprandial balance between whole body protein synthesis and degradation was better with caseins than with MSP. It seems likely that the positive effect of caseins on protein balance occurred only at the end of the experiment.

Keywords: lean body mass, fat mass, casein, whey, protein metabolism

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Authors: L. Madouni, M. Ould Ouali, N. E. Hannachi

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Two constitutive models for concrete are available in ABAQUS/Explicit, the Brittle Cracking Model and the Concrete Damaged Plasticity Model, and their suitability and limitations are well known. The aim of the present paper is to implement a damage-friction concrete constitutive model and to evaluate the performance of this model by comparing the predicted response with experimental data. The constitutive formulation of this material model is reviewed. In order to have consistent results, the parameter identification and calibration for the model have been performed. Several numerical simulations are presented in this paper, whose results allow for validating the capability of the proposed model for reproducing the typical nonlinear performances of concrete structures under different monotonic and cyclic load conditions. The results of the evaluation will be used for recommendations concerning the application and further improvements of the investigated model.

Keywords: Abaqus, concrete, constitutive model, numerical simulation

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Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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Authors: Yushen Dai, Tao Deng, Miaoying Chen, Baoqin Huang, Yan Ji, Yongshen Feng, Shaofei Liu, Dongmei Zhong, Tao Zhang, Lifeng Zhang

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Background: Detection and diagnosis are prerequisites for early interventions in the care of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). However, few studies have focused on this topic. Aim: This study aims to characterize the timing from symptom detection to intervention in children with ASD and to identify the potential predictors of early detection, diagnosis, and intervention. Methods and procedures: A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 314 parents of children with ASD in Guangzhou, China. Outcomes and Results: This study found that most children (76.24%) were diagnosed within one year after detection, and 25.8% of them did not receive the intervention after diagnosis. Predictors to ASD diagnosis included ASD-related symptoms identified at a younger age, more serious symptoms, and initial symptoms with abnormal development and sensory anomalies. ASD-related symptoms observed at an older age, initial symptoms with the social deficit, sensory anomalies, and without language impairment, parents as the primary caregivers, family with lower income and less social support utilization increased the odds of the time lag between detection and diagnosis. Children whose fathers had a lower level of education were less likely to receive the intervention. Conclusions and Implications: The study described the time for detection, diagnosis, and interventions of children with ASD. Findings suggest that the ASD-related symptoms, the timing at which symptoms first become a concern, primary caregivers’ roles, father’s educational level, and the family economic status should be considered when offering support to improve early detection, diagnosis, and intervention. Helping children and their families take full advantage of support is also important.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, child, detection, diagnosis, intervention, social support

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Authors: Arslan Murtaza

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Model Driven Architecture (MDA) is technique presented by OMG (Object Management Group) for software development in which different models are proposed and converted them into code. The main plan is to identify task by using PIM (Platform Independent Model) and transform it into PSM (Platform Specific Model) and then converted into code. In this review paper describes some challenges and issues that are faced in MDA, type and transformation of models (e.g. CIM, PIM and PSM), and evaluation of MDA-based methodologies.

Keywords: OMG, model driven rrchitecture (MDA), computation independent model (CIM), platform independent model (PIM), platform specific model(PSM), MDA-based methodologies

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Authors: Shannon Rappe, Elizabeth Morse, David Phillippi

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Postpartum women with an opioid use disorder (OUD) are at high risk for treatment disengagement, leaving them vulnerable to overdose and death between seven and twelve months postpartum. Intensive case management programs have been proposed as an effective strategy to reduce barriers and increase treatment engagement among postpartum women. The purpose of this project is to determine the effects of early engagement in an intensive case management program on postpartum engagement and infant health outcomes among postpartum women with opioid use. This retrospective review of secondary data was collected on 225 infants, and 221 postpartum women enrolled in an intensive case management program in Tennessee between May 1, 2019, and May 5, 2020. Chi-squares were computed to examine the timing of engagement during pregnancy, maternal treatment outcomes, and infant health outcomes, including neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS), birth weight, gestational age, and length of stay. The mean prenatal program engagement was 109 days (SD = 67.6); 16.7% (n = 37) enrolled during the first trimester, 37.6% (n = 83) in the second trimester, and 45.7% (n = 101) in the third trimester. Of the 221 women engaged, 45.2% (n = 100) remained engaged in the case of management at the time of data collection, and 40% (n = 89) remained engaged in MAT at the time of data collection. Twenty- five percent (n = 25) of mothers who graduated sustained engagement in MAT. Of 225 infants 28.9% (n = 65) had a positive NAS status, mean birth weight was 6.5 lbs. (SD = 19.3); mean gestational age was 38.3 weeks (SD = 19.3) and mean length of stay was 8.19 days (SD = 9.8). This study's findings identified that engaging mothers during pregnancy in a program designed to meet their unique challenges positively impacts both the mother and infant outcomes, regardless of their timing.

Keywords: intensive case management, neonatal abstinence syndrome, opioid addiction, opioid crisis, opioid use in pregnant women, postpartum addiction

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Authors: Mohamed Rabhi, Kouider Halim Benrahou

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The rheological properties of the carbonyl-methylcellulose (CMC), of different concentrations (25000, 50000, 60000, 80000 and 100000 ppm) and different temperatures were studied. We found that the rheological behavior of all CMC solutions presents a pseudo-plastic behavior, it follows the model of Ostwald-de Waele. The objective of this work is the modeling of flow by the CMC Cross model. The Cross model gives us the variation of the viscosity according to the shear rate. This model allowed us to adjust more clearly the rheological characteristics of CMC solutions. A comparison between the Cross model and the model of Ostwald was made. Cross the model fitting parameters were determined by a numerical simulation to make an approach between the experimental curve and those given by the two models. Our study has shown that the model of Cross, describes well the flow of "CMC" for low concentrations.

Keywords: CMC, rheological modeling, Ostwald model, cross model, viscosity

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Authors: Viet-Hung Truong, Seung-Eock Kim

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Rain–wind induced vibration of inclined cable is a special aerodynamic phenomenon because it is easily influenced by many factors, especially the distribution of rivulet and wind velocity. This paper proposes a new 3D model of inclined cable, based on single degree-of-freedom model. Aerodynamic forces are firstly established and verified with the existing results from a 2D model. The 3D model of inclined cable is developed. The 3D model is then applied to assess the effects of wind velocity distribution and the continuity of rivulets on the cable. Finally, an inclined cable model with small sag is investigated.

Keywords: 3D model, rain - wind induced vibration, rivulet, analytical model

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Authors: Bok Yae Chung, Eun Hee Oh

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Breast cancer patients require more nutritional interventions than others. However, a few studies have attempted to assess the overall nutritional status, to reduce body weight and BMI by improving diet, and to improve the prognosis of cancer for breast cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of diet intervention in the breast cancer patients through meta-analysis. For the study purpose, 16 studies were selected by using PubMed, ScienceDirect, ProQuest and CINAHL. Meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model, and the effect size on outcome variables in breast cancer was calculated. The effect size for outcome variables of diet intervention was a large effect size. For heterogeneity, moderator analysis was performed using intervention type and intervention duration. All moderators did not significant difference. Diet intervention has significant positive effects on outcome variables in breast cancer. As a result, it is suggested that the timing of the intervention should be no more than six months, but a strategy for sustaining long-term intervention effects should be added if nutritional intervention is to be administered for breast cancer patients in the future.

Keywords: breast cancer, diet, mete-analysis, intervention

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Authors: Go Bong Choi, Shin Je Lee, Sung Jin Yoo, Gibaek Lee, Jong Min Lee

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In South Korea, it is difficult to obtain data for statistical pipe assessment. In this paper, to address these issues, we find that various statistical model presented before is how data mixed with noise and are whether apply in South Korea. Three major type of model is studied and if data is presented in the paper, we add noise to data, which affects how model response changes. Moreover, we generate data from model in paper and analyse effect of noise. From this we can find robustness and applicability in Korea of each model.

Keywords: proportional hazard model, survival model, water main deterioration, ecological sciences

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Authors: Clorinda Hogan, Shaun Abbott, Mark Halaki, Marcela Torres Catiglioni, Goshi Yamauchi, Lachlan Mitchell, James Salter, Michael Romann, Stephen Cobley

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Introduction: Common annual age-group competition structures unintentionally introduce participation inequalities, performance (dis)advantages and selection biases due to the effect of maturational variation between youth swimmers. On this basis, there are implications for improving performance evaluation strategies. Therefore the aim was to: (1) To determine maturity timing distributions in female youth swimming; (2) quantify the relationship between maturation status and 100-m FC performance; (3) apply Maturational-based Corrective Adjustment Procedures (Mat-CAPs) for removal of maturational status performance influences. Methods: (1) Cross-sectional analysis of 663 female (10-15 years) swimmers who underwent assessment of anthropometrics (mass, height and sitting height) and estimations of maturity timing and offset. (2) 100-m front-crawl performance (seconds) was assessed at Australian regional, state, and national-level competitions between 2016-2020. To determine the relationship between maturation status and 100-m front-crawl performance, MO was plotted against 100-m FC performance time. The expected maturity status - performance relationship for females aged 10-15 years of age was obtained through a quadratic function (y = ax2 + bx + c) from unstandardized coefficients. The regression equation was subsequently used for Mat-CAPs. (3) Participants aged 10-13 years were categorised into maturity-offset categories. Maturity offset distributions for Raw (‘All’, ‘Top 50%’ & ‘Top 25%’) and Correctively Adjusted swim times were examined. Chi-square, Cramer’s V and ORs determined the occurrence of maturation biases for each age group and selection level. Results—: (1) Maturity timing distributions illustrated overrepresentation of ‘normative’ maturing swimmers (11.82 ± 0.40 years), with a descriptive shift toward the early maturing relative to the normative population. (2) A curvilinear relationship between maturity-offset and swim performance was identified (R2 = 0.53, P < 0.001) and subsequently utilised for Mat-CAPs. (3) Raw maturity offset categories identified partial maturation status skewing towards biologically older swimmers at 10/11 and 12 years, with effect magnitudes increasing in the ‘Top 50%’ and ‘25%’ of performance times. Following Mat-CAPs application, maturity offset biases were removed in similar age groups and selection levels. When adjusting performance times for maturity offset, Mat-CAPs was successful in mitigating against maturational biases until approximately 1-year post Peak Height Velocity. The overrepresentation of ‘normative’ maturing female swimmers contrasted with the substantial overrepresentation of ‘early’ maturing male swimmers found previously in 100-m front-crawl. These findings suggest early maturational timing is not advantageous in females, but findings associated with Aim 2, highlight how advanced maturational status remained beneficial to performance. Observed differences between female and male maturational biases may relate to the differential impact of physiological development during pubertal years. Females experience greater increases of fat mass and potentially differing changes in body shape which can negatively affect swim performance. Conclusions: Transient maturation status-based participation and performance advantages were apparent within a large sample of Australian female youth 100-m FC swimmers. By removing maturity status performance biases within female youth swimming, Mat-CAPs could help improve participation experiences and the accuracy of identifying genuinely skilled female youth swimmers.

Keywords: athlete development, long-term sport participation, performance evaluation, talent identification, youth competition

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Authors: Saeed Sayyad Hagh Shomar

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Modeling users’ decisions on departure time choice is the main motivation for this research. In particular, it examines the impact of social-demographic features, household, job characteristics and trip qualities on individuals’ departure time choice. Departure time alternatives are presented as adjacent discrete time periods. The choice between these alternatives is done using a discrete choice model. Since a great deal of early morning trips and traffic congestion at that time of the day comprise work trips, the focus of this study is on the work trip over the entire day. Therefore, this study by using questionnaire of stated preference models users’ departure time choice affected by congestion pricing plan in downtown Tehran. Experimental results demonstrate efficient social-demographic impact on work trips’ departure time. These findings have substantial outcomes for the analysis of transportation planning. Particularly, the analysis shows that ignoring the effects of these variables could result in erroneous information and consequently decisions in the field of transportation planning and air quality would fail and cause financial resources loss.

Keywords: modeling, departure time, travel timing, time of the day, congestion pricing, transportation planning

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Authors: Fabricio Costa Silva, Samuel Xavier de Souza

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A Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver is responsible to determine position, velocity and timing information by using satellite information. To get this information are necessary to combine an incoming and a locally generated signal. The procedure called acquisition need to found two information, the frequency and phase of the incoming signal. This is very time consuming, so there are several techniques to reduces the computational complexity, but each of then put projects issues in conflict. I this papers we present a method that can reduce the computational complexity by reducing the search space and paralleling the search.

Keywords: GPS, acquisition, complexity, parallelism

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Authors: Zhiguo Shi, Cheng Ning Loong, Jiazeng Shan, Weichao Wu

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This study proposes an equivalent circuit model to simulate the eddy current damping force with shaking table tests and finite element modeling. The model is firstly proposed and applied to a simple eddy current damper, which is modelled in ANSYS, indicating that the proposed model can simulate the eddy current damping force under different types of excitations. Then, a non-contact and friction-free eddy current damper is designed and tested, and the proposed model can reproduce the experimental observations. The excellent agreement between the simulated results and the experimental data validates the accuracy and reliability of the equivalent circuit model. Furthermore, a more complicated model is performed in ANSYS to verify the feasibility of the equivalent circuit model in complex eddy current damper, and the higher-order fractional model and viscous model are adopted for comparison.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, eddy current damping, finite element model, shake table test

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Authors: Fabricio Costa Silva, Samuel Xavier de Souza

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A Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver is responsible to determine position, velocity and timing information by using satellite information. To get this information's are necessary to combine an incoming and a locally generated signal. The procedure called acquisition need to found two information, the frequency and phase of the incoming signal. This is very time consuming, so there are several techniques to reduces the computational complexity, but each of then put projects issues in conflict. I this papers we present a method that can reduce the computational complexity by reducing the search space and paralleling the search.

Keywords: GPS, acquisition, low complexity, parallelism

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Authors: M. T. Alodat

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In this paper, we propose a generalization to the Gaussian process regression(GPR) model called the extended skew Gaussian process for regression(ESGPr) model. The ESGPR model works better than the GPR model when the errors are skewed. We derive the predictive distribution for the ESGPR model at a new input. Also we apply the ESGPR model to FOREX data and we find that it fits the Forex data better than the GPR model.

Keywords: extended skew normal distribution, Gaussian process for regression, predictive distribution, ESGPr model

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Authors: Ulrich Wake, Eniman Syamsuddin

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The model for camera model identificaiton is trained using pretrained model ResNet43 and ResNet50. The dataset consists of 500 photos of each phone. Dataset is divided into 1280 photos for training, 320 photos for validation and 400 photos for testing. The model is trained using One Cycle Policy Method and tested using Test-Time Augmentation. Furthermore, the model is trained for 50 epoch using regularization such as drop out and early stopping. The result is 90% accuracy for validation set and above 85% for Test-Time Augmentation using ResNet50. Every model is also trained by slightly updating the pretrained model’s weights

Keywords: ​ One Cycle Policy, ResNet34, ResNet50, Test-Time Agumentation

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Authors: Cytha Nilam Chairani, Ditha Noviantika, Hidayati Amir, Nurul Khairiyah, Siti Rahmadita, Fadila Khairani

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Background: Dental caries is one of the most common diseases with high prevalence in children. The first permanent molar (FPM) has an essential role in establishing the occlusion. Nevertheless, FPM is very prone to caries because of various factors, such as their anatomical structure and early emergence in oral cavity. It is due to the little knowledge from parents and children regarding the timing of emergence of FPM in oral cavity which is still considered as primary teeth. Furthermore, the lack of knowledge from parents and children may affect their oral hygiene practice resulting to carious process. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the status of FPM caries and its association with children’s oral hygiene practice in 9-12-year-old school children in Lubuk Kilangan Community Health Centre, Padang City. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in 50 school children (9-12 years old) using random sampling technique from two randomly selected schools in Lubuk Kilangan Community Health Centre, Padang City. A questionnaire was developed from other studies consisting of four closed ended questions regarding oral health practice. The data obtained were analyzed statistically using Mann-Whitney Test to assess the status of FPM caries and its association with children’s oral hygiene practice. Results: The results showed that 32% of children had FPMs sound and the remaining 68% had FPMs carious which were grouped into 1-2 FPMs carious (60%) and 3-4 FPMs carious (8%). The caries status of mandibular FPM (64%) was higher compared to maxillary FPM (10%). Conclusion: There was significant association in subject who did not visit dentist in the last 6 months which had more carious FPMs compared to subject who visited dentist (p < 0.05). There was no significant association between the status of FPM caries and knowledge of the timing eruption of FPM, oral hygiene instruction from parents and tooth brushing (p > 0.05).

Keywords: dental caries, children, first permanent molar, oral hygiene practice

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Authors: Le Kang

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According to the nature of the university, as a free and responsible academic community, USR is based on a different foundation —academic responsibility, so the Pyramid and the IC Model of CSR could not fully explain the most distinguished feature of USR. This paper sought to put forward a new model— Ferris Wheel Model, to illustrate the nature of USR and the process of achievement. The Ferris Wheel Model of USR shows the university creates a balanced, fairness and neutrality systemic structure to afford social responsibilities; that makes the organization could obtain a synergistic effect to achieve more extensive interests of stakeholders and wider social responsibilities.

Keywords: USR, achievement model, ferris wheel model, social responsibilities

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Authors: Mohan H., C. Elajchet Senni

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In the present of high energy consumption in every sphere of life, renewable energy sources are emerging as alternative to conventional fuels for energy security, mitigating green house gas emission and climate change. There has been a world wide interest in searching for alternatives to petroleum derived fuels due to their depletion as well as due to the concern for the environment. Vegetable oils have capability to solve this problem because they are renewable and lead to reduction in environmental pollution. But high smoke emission and lower thermal efficiency are the main problems associated with the use of neat vegetable oils in diesel engines. In the present work, performance, combustion and emission characteristics of CI engine fuelled with 20% by vol. methyl esters mixed with Karanja seed Oil, and Fuel injection pressures of 200 bar and 240 bar, injection timings (21°,23° and 25° BTDC) and Proportion B20 diesel respectively. Vegetable oils have capability to solve this problem because they are renewable and lead to reduction in environmental pollution. But, high smoke emission and lower thermal efficiency are the main problems associated with the use of neat vegetable oils in diesel engines. In the present work, performance, combustion and emission characteristics of CI engine fuelled with 20% by vol. methyl esters mixed with Karanja seed Oil, and Fuel injection pressures of 200 bar and 240 bar ,Injection timings (21°,23° and 25° BTDC) and Proportion B20 diesel respectively. Various performance, combustion and emission characteristics such as thermal efficiency, and brake specific fuel consumption, maximum cylinder pressure, instantaneous heat release, cumulative heat release with respect to crank angle, ignition lag, combustion duration, HC, NOx, CO, exhaust temperature and smoke intensity were measured.

Keywords: karanja oil, injection pressure, injection timing, karanja oil methyl ester

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Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

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This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) of a utility interactive three phase inverter (TPI) for a photovoltaic (PV) system at commercial level. The proposed model uses phase locked loop (PLL) to synchronize TPI with the power electric grid (PEG) and performs MPC control in a dq reference frame. TPI model consists of boost converter (BC), maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control, and a three leg voltage source inverter (VSI). Operational model of VSI is used to synthesize sinusoidal current and track the reference. Model is validated using a 35.7 kW PV system in Matlab/Simulink. Implementation and results show simplicity and accuracy, as well as reliability of the model.

Keywords: model predictive control, three phase voltage source inverter, PV system, Matlab/simulink

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Authors: Amreth Chandrasehar

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Machine Learning (ML) Models are developed and run in production to solve various use cases that help organizations to be more efficient and help drive the business. But this comes at a massive development cost and lost business opportunities. According to the Gartner report, 85% of data science projects fail, and one of the factors impacting this is not paying attention to Model Observability. Model Observability helps the developers and operators to pinpoint the model performance issues data drift and help identify root cause of issues. This paper focuses on providing insights into incorporating model observability in model development and operationalizing it in production.

Keywords: model observability, monitoring, drift detection, ML observability platform

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Authors: S. A. Sadegh Zadeh, C. Kambhampati

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Mathematical and computational modellings are the necessary tools for reviewing, analysing, and predicting processes and events in the wide spectrum range of scientific fields. Therefore, in a field as rapidly developing as neuroscience, the combination of these two modellings can have a significant role in helping to guide the direction the field takes. The paper combined mathematical and computational modelling to prove a weakness in a very precious model in neuroscience. This paper is intended to analyse all-or-none principle in Hodgkin-Huxley mathematical model. By implementation the computational model of Hodgkin-Huxley model and applying the concept of all-or-none principle, an investigation on this mathematical model has been performed. The results clearly showed that the mathematical model of Hodgkin-Huxley does not observe this fundamental law in neurophysiology to generating action potentials. This study shows that further mathematical studies on the Hodgkin-Huxley model are needed in order to create a model without this weakness.

Keywords: all-or-none, computational modelling, mathematical model, transmembrane voltage, action potential

Procedia PDF Downloads 591

Authors: Alonggot Limcharoen, Jintana Wannarat, Vorawat Panich

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the balancing of the number of operators (Line Balancing technique) in the production line of hard disk drive components in order to increase efficiency. At present, the trend of using hard disk drives has continuously declined leading to limits in a company’s revenue potential. It is important to improve and develop the production process to create market share and to have the ability to compete with competitors with a higher value and quality. Therefore, an effective tool is needed to support such matters. In this research, the Arena program was applied to analyze the results both before and after the improvement. Finally, the precedent was used before proceeding with the real process. There were 14 work stations with 35 operators altogether in the RA production process where this study was conducted. In the actual process, the average production time was 84.03 seconds per product piece (by timing 30 times in each work station) along with a rating assessment by implementing the Westinghouse principles. This process showed that the rating was 123% underlying an assumption of 5% allowance time. Consequently, the standard time was 108.53 seconds per piece. The Takt time was calculated from customer needs divided by working duration in one day; 3.66 seconds per piece. Of these, the proper number of operators was 30 people. That meant five operators should be eliminated in order to increase the production process. After that, a production model was created from the actual process by using the Arena program to confirm model reliability; the outputs from imitation were compared with the original (actual process) and this comparison indicated that the same output meaning was reliable. Then, worker numbers and their job responsibilities were remodeled into the Arena program. Lastly, the efficiency of production process enhanced from 70.82% to 82.63% according to the target.

Keywords: hard disk drive, line balancing, ECRS, simulation, arena program

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Richard Ren

Abstract:

Air pollution is a serious danger to international well-being and economies - it will kill an estimated 7 million people every year, costing world economies $2.6 trillion by 2060 due to sick days, healthcare costs, and reduced productivity. In the United States alone, 60,000 premature deaths are caused by poor air quality. For this reason, there is a crucial need to develop effective methods to forecast air quality, which can mitigate air pollution’s detrimental public health effects and associated costs by helping people plan ahead and avoid exposure. The goal of this study is to propose an artificial intelligence framework for predicting future air quality based on timing variables (i.e. season, weekday/weekend), future weather forecasts, as well as past pollutant and air quality measurements. The proposed framework utilizes multiple machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, neural network) with different specifications and averages the results of the three top-performing models to eliminate inaccuracies, weaknesses, and biases from any one individual model. Over time, the proposed framework uses new data to self-adjust model parameters and increase prediction accuracy. To demonstrate its applicability, a prototype of this framework was created to forecast air quality in Los Angeles, California using datasets from the RP4 weather data repository and EPA pollutant measurement data. The results showed good agreement between the framework’s predictions and real-life observations, with an overall 92% model accuracy. The combined model is able to predict more accurately than any of the individual models, and it is able to reliably forecast season-based variations in air quality levels. Top air quality predictor variables were identified through the measurement of mean decrease in accuracy. This study proposed and demonstrated the efficacy of a comprehensive air quality prediction framework leveraging multiple machine learning algorithms to overcome individual algorithm shortcomings. Future enhancements should focus on expanding and testing a greater variety of modeling techniques within the proposed framework, testing the framework in different locations, and developing a platform to automatically publish future predictions in the form of a web or mobile application. Accurate predictions from this artificial intelligence framework can in turn be used to save and improve lives by allowing individuals to protect their health and allowing governments to implement effective pollution control measures.Air pollution is a serious danger to international wellbeing and economies - it will kill an estimated 7 million people every year, costing world economies $2.6 trillion by 2060 due to sick days, healthcare costs, and reduced productivity. In the United States alone, 60,000 premature deaths are caused by poor air quality. For this reason, there is a crucial need to develop effective methods to forecast air quality, which can mitigate air pollution’s detrimental public health effects and associated costs by helping people plan ahead and avoid exposure. The goal of this study is to propose an artificial intelligence framework for predicting future air quality based on timing variables (i.e. season, weekday/weekend), future weather forecasts, as well as past pollutant and air quality measurements. The proposed framework utilizes multiple machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, neural network) with different specifications and averages the results of the three top-performing models to eliminate inaccuracies, weaknesses, and biases from any one individual model. Over time, the proposed framework uses new data to self-adjust model parameters and increase prediction accuracy. To demonstrate its applicability, a prototype of this framework was created to forecast air quality in Los Angeles, California using datasets from the RP4 weather data repository and EPA pollutant measurement data. The results showed good agreement between the framework’s predictions and real-life observations, with an overall 92% model accuracy. The combined model is able to predict more accurately than any of the individual models, and it is able to reliably forecast season-based variations in air quality levels. Top air quality predictor variables were identified through the measurement of mean decrease in accuracy. This study proposed and demonstrated the efficacy of a comprehensive air quality prediction framework leveraging multiple machine learning algorithms to overcome individual algorithm shortcomings. Future enhancements should focus on expanding and testing a greater variety of modeling techniques within the proposed framework, testing the framework in different locations, and developing a platform to automatically publish future predictions in the form of a web or mobile application. Accurate predictions from this artificial intelligence framework can in turn be used to save and improve lives by allowing individuals to protect their health and allowing governments to implement effective pollution control measures.Air pollution is a serious danger to international wellbeing and economies - it will kill an estimated 7 million people every year, costing world economies $2.6 trillion by 2060 due to sick days, healthcare costs, and reduced productivity. In the United States alone, 60,000 premature deaths are caused by poor air quality. For this reason, there is a crucial need to develop effective methods to forecast air quality, which can mitigate air pollution’s detrimental public health effects and associated costs by helping people plan ahead and avoid exposure. The goal of this study is to propose an artificial intelligence framework for predicting future air quality based on timing variables (i.e. season, weekday/weekend), future weather forecasts, as well as past pollutant and air quality measurements. The proposed framework utilizes multiple machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, neural network) with different specifications and averages the results of the three top-performing models to eliminate inaccuracies, weaknesses, and biases from any one individual model. Over time, the proposed framework uses new data to self-adjust model parameters and increase prediction accuracy. To demonstrate its applicability, a prototype of this framework was created to forecast air quality in Los Angeles, California using datasets from the RP4 weather data repository and EPA pollutant measurement data. The results showed good agreement between the framework’s predictions and real-life observations, with an overall 92% model accuracy. The combined model is able to predict more accurately than any of the individual models, and it is able to reliably forecast season-based variations in air quality levels. Top air quality predictor variables were identified through the measurement of mean decrease in accuracy. This study proposed and demonstrated the efficacy of a comprehensive air quality prediction framework leveraging multiple machine learning algorithms to overcome individual algorithm shortcomings. Future enhancements should focus on expanding and testing a greater variety of modeling techniques within the proposed framework, testing the framework in different locations, and developing a platform to automatically publish future predictions in the form of a web or mobile application. Accurate predictions from this artificial intelligence framework can in turn be used to save and improve lives by allowing individuals to protect their health and allowing governments to implement effective pollution control measures.

Keywords: air quality prediction, air pollution, artificial intelligence, machine learning algorithms

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Pontus Backstrom

Abstract:

In the educational literature on peer effects, attention has been brought to the fact that the mechanisms creating peer effects are still to a large extent hidden in obscurity. The hypothesis in this study is that the Frame Factor Theory can be used to explain these mechanisms. At heart of the theory is the concept of “time needed” for students to learn a certain curricula unit. The relations between class-aggregated time needed and the actual time available, steers and hinders the actions possible for the teacher. Further, the theory predicts that the timing and pacing of the teachers’ instruction is governed by a “criterion steering group” (CSG), namely the pupils in the 10th-25th percentile of the aptitude distribution in class. The class composition hereby set the possibilities and limitations for instruction, creating peer effects on individual outcomes. To test if the theory can be applied to the issue of peer effects, the study employs multilevel structural equation modelling (M-SEM) on Swedish TIMSS 2015-data (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study; students N=4090, teachers N=200). Using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) in the SEM-framework in MPLUS, latent variables are specified according to the theory, such as “limitations of instruction” from TIMSS survey items. The results indicate a good model fit to data of the measurement model. Research is still in progress, but preliminary results from initial M-SEM-models verify a strong relation between the mean level of the CSG and the latent variable of limitations on instruction, a variable which in turn have a great impact on individual students’ test results. Further analysis is required, but so far the analysis indicates a confirmation of the predictions derived from the frame factor theory and reveals that one of the important mechanisms creating peer effects in student outcomes is the effect the class composition has upon the teachers’ instruction in class.

Keywords: compositional effects, frame factor theory, peer effects, structural equation modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 119