Search results for: nonlinear logistic regression

Authors: Minas Balyan

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In the third-order nonlinear Takagi’s equations for monochromatic waves and in the third-order nonlinear time-dependent dynamical diffraction equations for X-ray pulses for forbidden reflections the Fourier-coefficients of the linear and the third order nonlinear susceptibilities are zero. The dynamical diffraction in the nonlinear case is related to the presence in the nonlinear equations the terms proportional to the zero order and the second order nonzero Fourier coefficients of the third order nonlinear susceptibility. Thus in the third order nonlinear Bragg diffraction case a nonlinear analogue of the well known Renninger effect takes place. In this work, the ‘third order nonlinear Renninger effect’ is considered theoretically and numerically. If the reflection exactly is forbidden the diffracted wave’s amplitude is zero both in Laue and Bragg cases since the boundary conditions and dynamical diffraction equations are compatible with zero solution. But in real crystals due to some percent of dislocations and other localized defects, the atoms are displaced with respect to their equilibrium positions. Thus in real crystals susceptibilities of forbidden reflection are by some order small than for usual not forbidden reflections but are not exactly equal to zero. The numerical calculations for susceptibilities two order less than for not forbidden reflection show that in Bragg geometry case the nonlinear reflection curve’s behavior is the same as for not forbidden reflection, but for forbidden reflection the rocking curves’ width, center and boundaries are two order sensitive on the input intensity value. This gives an opportunity to investigate third order nonlinear X-ray dynamical diffraction for not intense beams – 0.001 in the units of critical intensity.

Keywords: third order nonlinearity, Bragg diffraction, nonlinear Renninger effect, rocking curves

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Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

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Kalman filter is a famous algorithm that utilizes to estimate the state in the linear systems. It has numerous applications in technology and science. Since of the most of applications in real life can be described by nonlinear systems. So, Kalman filter does not work with the nonlinear systems because it is suitable to linear systems only. In this work, a nonlinear filtering algorithm is presented which is suitable to use with the special kinds of nonlinear systems. This filter generalizes the Kalman filter. This means that this filter also can be used for the linear systems. Our algorithm depends on a special linearization of the second degree. We introduced the nonlinear algorithm with a bilinear state-space model. A simulation example is presented to illustrate the efficiency of the algorithm.

Keywords: Kalman filter, filtering algorithm, nonlinear systems, state-space model

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Authors: Seun Mayowa Sunday

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Loan prediction is one of the most significant and recognised fields of research in the banking, insurance, and the financial security industries. Some prediction systems on the market include the construction of static software. However, due to the fact that static software only operates with strictly regulated rules, they cannot aid customers beyond these limitations. Application of many machine learning (ML) techniques are required for loan prediction. Four separate machine learning models, random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), and logistic regression, are used to create the loan prediction model. Using the anaconda navigator and the required machine learning (ML) libraries, models are created and evaluated using the appropriate measuring metrics. From the finding, the random forest performs with the highest accuracy of 80.17% which was later implemented into the Django framework. For real-time testing, the web application is deployed on the Alibabacloud which is among the top 4 biggest cloud computing provider. Hence, to the best of our knowledge, this research will serve as the first academic paper which combines the model development and the Django framework, with the deployment into the Alibaba cloud computing application.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbor, random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, django, cloud computing, alibaba cloud

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Authors: Yijun Shao, Yan Cheng, Rashmee U. Shah, Charlene R. Weir, Bruce E. Bray, Qing Zeng-Treitler

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Deep neural network (DNN) models are being explored in the clinical domain, following the recent success in other domains such as image recognition. For clinical adoption, outcome prediction models require explanation, but due to the multiple non-linear inner transformations, DNN models are viewed by many as a black box. In this study, we developed a deep neural network model for predicting 1-year mortality of patients who underwent major cardio vascular procedures (MCVPs), using temporal image representation of past medical history as input. The dataset was obtained from the electronic medical data warehouse administered by Veteran Affairs Information and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). We identified 21,355 veterans who had their first MCVP in 2014. Features for prediction included demographics, diagnoses, procedures, medication orders, hospitalizations, and frailty measures extracted from clinical notes. Temporal variables were created based on the patient history data in the 2-year window prior to the index MCVP. A temporal image was created based on these variables for each individual patient. To generate the explanation for the DNN model, we defined a new concept called impact score, based on the presence/value of clinical conditions’ impact on the predicted outcome. Like (log) odds ratio reported by the logistic regression (LR) model, impact scores are continuous variables intended to shed light on the black box model. For comparison, a logistic regression model was fitted on the same dataset. In our cohort, about 6.8% of patients died within one year. The prediction of the DNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.5% while the LR model achieved an AUC of 74.6%. A strong but not perfect correlation was found between the aggregated impact scores and the log odds ratios (Spearman’s rho = 0.74), which helped validate our explanation.

Keywords: deep neural network, temporal data, prediction, frailty, logistic regression model

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Authors: T. Yamaguchi, M. Watanabe, M. Sasajima, C. Yuan, S. Maruyama, T. B. Ibrahim, H. Tomita

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This paper deals with nonlinear vibration analysis using finite element method for frame structures consisting of elastic and viscoelastic damping layers supported by multiple nonlinear concentrated springs with hysteresis damping. The frame is supported by four nonlinear concentrated springs near the four corners. The restoring forces of the springs have cubic non-linearity and linear component of the nonlinear springs has complex quantity to represent linear hysteresis damping. The damping layer of the frame structures has complex modulus of elasticity. Further, the discretized equations in physical coordinate are transformed into the nonlinear ordinary coupled differential equations using normal coordinate corresponding to linear natural modes. Comparing shares of strain energy of the elastic frame, the damping layer and the springs, we evaluate the influences of the damping couplings on the linear and nonlinear impact responses. We also investigate influences of damping changed by stiffness of the elastic frame on the nonlinear coupling in the damped impact responses.

Keywords: dynamic response, nonlinear impact response, finite element analysis, numerical analysis

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Marybec Griffin

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Purpose: The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to get a better understanding of healthcare usage and satisfaction among young adult gay men (YAGM), including the facility used as the usual source of healthcare, preference for coordinated healthcare, and if their primary care provider (PCP) adequately addressed the health needs of gay men. Methods: Interviews were conducted among n=800 YAGM in New York City (NYC). Participants were surveyed about their sociodemographic characteristics and healthcare usage and satisfaction access using multivariable logistic regression models. The surveys were conducted between November 2015 and June 2016. Results: The mean age of the sample was 24.22 years old (SD=4.26). The racial and ethnic background of the participants is as follows: 35.8% (n=286) Black Non-Hispanic, 31.9% (n=225) Hispanic/Latino, 20.5% (n=164) White Non-Hispanic, 4.4% (n=35) Asian/Pacific Islander, and 6.9% (n=55) reporting some other racial or ethnic background. 31.1% (n=249) of the sample had an income below $14,999. 86.7% (n=694) report having either public or private health insurance. For usual source of healthcare, 44.6% (n=357) of the sample reported a private doctor’s office, 16.3% (n=130) reported a community health center, and 7.4% (n=59) reported an urgent care facility, and 7.6% (n=61) reported not having a usual source of healthcare. 56.4% (n=451) of the sample indicated a preference for coordinated healthcare. 54% (n=334) of the sample were very satisfied with their healthcare. Findings from multivariable logistical regression models indicate that participants with higher incomes (AOR=0.54, 95% CI 0.36-0.81, p < 0.01) and participants with a PCP (AOR=0.12, 95% CI 0.07-0.20, p < 0.001) were less likely to use a walk-in facility as their usual source of healthcare. Results from the second multivariable logistic regression model indicated that participants who experienced discrimination in a healthcare setting were less likely to prefer coordinated healthcare (AOR=0.63, 95% CI 0.42-0.96, p < 0.05). In the final multivariable logistic model, results indicated that participants who had disclosed their sexual orientation to their PCP (AOR=2.57, 95% CI 1.25-5.21, p < 0.01) and were comfortable discussing their sexual activity with their PCP (AOR=8.04, 95% CI 4.76-13.58, p < 0.001) were more likely to agree that their PCP adequately addressed the healthcare needs of gay men. Conclusion: Understanding healthcare usage and satisfaction among YAGM is necessary as the healthcare landscape changes, especially given the relatively recent addition of urgent care facilities. The type of healthcare facility used as a usual source of care influences the ability to seek comprehensive and coordinated healthcare services. While coordinated primary and sexual healthcare may be ideal, individual preference for this coordination among YAGM is desired but may be limited due to experiences of discrimination in primary care settings.

Keywords: healthcare policy, gay men, healthcare access, Affordable Care Act

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Authors: Cornelius Femi Popoola

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This study investigated logistics information systems in the distribution of flour in Nigeria. A case study design was used and 50 staff of Honeywell Flour Mill was sampled for the study. Data generated through a questionnaire were analysed using correlation and regression analysis. The findings of the study revealed that logistic information systems such as e-commerce, interactive telephone systems and electronic data interchange positively correlated with the distribution of flour in Honeywell Flour Mill. Finding also deduced that e-commerce, interactive telephone systems and electronic data interchange jointly and positively contribute to the distribution of flour in Honeywell Flour Mill in Nigeria (R = .935; Adj. R2 = .642; F (3,47) = 14.739; p < .05). The study therefore recommended that Honeywell Flour Mill should upgrade their logistic information systems to computer-to-computer communication of business transactions and documents, as well adopt new technology such as, tracking-and-tracing systems (barcode scanning for packages and palettes), tracking vehicles with Global Positioning System (GPS), measuring vehicle performance with ‘black boxes’ (containing logistic data), and Automatic Equipment Identification (AEI) into their systems.

Keywords: e-commerce, electronic data interchange, flour distribution, information system, interactive telephone systems

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Authors: O. Abiodun Adeyinka, B. Adeyemo Adesesan

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The forensic use of handwriting depends on the analysis, comparison, and evaluation decisions made by forensic document examiners. When using biometric technology in forensic applications, it is necessary to compute Likelihood Ratio (LR) for quantifying strength of evidence under two competing hypotheses, namely the prosecution and the defense hypotheses wherein a set of assumptions and methods for a given data set will be made. It is therefore important to know how repeatable and reproducible our estimated LR is. This paper evaluated the accuracy and reproducibility of examiners' decisions. Confidence interval for the estimated LR were presented so as not get an incorrect estimate that will be used to deliver wrong judgment in the court of Law. The estimate of LR is fundamentally a Bayesian concept and we used two LR estimators, namely Logistic Regression (LoR) and Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) for this paper. The repeatability evaluation was carried out by retesting the initial experiment after an interval of six months to observe whether examiners would repeat their decisions for the estimated LR. The experimental results, which are based on handwriting dataset, show that LR has different confidence intervals which therefore implies that LR cannot be estimated with the same certainty everywhere. Though the LoR performed better than the KDE when tested using the same dataset, the two LR estimators investigated showed a consistent region in which LR value can be estimated confidently. These two findings advance our understanding of LR when used in computing the strength of evidence in handwriting using forensics.

Keywords: confidence interval, handwriting, kernel density estimator, KDE, logistic regression LoR, repeatability, reproducibility

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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This paper presents a study about a nonparametric regression model consisting of a smoothing spline method and a penalized spline regression method. We also compare the techniques used for estimation and prediction of nonparametric regression model. We tried both methods with crude oil prices in dollars per barrel and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. According to the results, it is concluded that smoothing spline method performs better than that of penalized spline regression method.

Keywords: nonparametric regression model, penalized spline regression method, smoothing spline method, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)

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Authors: Danica Maljkovic, Igor Balen, Bojana Dalbelo Basic

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Following the regulation of EU Directive on Energy Efficiency, specifically Article 9, individual metering in district heating systems has to be introduced by the end of 2016. These directions have been implemented in member state’s legal framework, Croatia is one of these states. The directive allows installation of both heat metering devices and heat cost allocators. Mainly due to bad communication and PR, the general public false image was created that the heat cost allocators are devices that save energy. Although this notion is wrong, the aim of this work is to develop a model that would precisely express the influence of installation heat cost allocators on potential energy savings in each unit within multifamily buildings. At the same time, in recent years, a science of machine learning has gain larger application in various fields, as it is proven to give good results in cases where large amounts of data are to be processed with an aim to recognize a pattern and correlation of each of the relevant parameter as well as in the cases where the problem is too complex for a human intelligence to solve. A special method of machine learning, decision tree method, has proven an accuracy of over 92% in prediction general building consumption. In this paper, a machine learning algorithms will be used to isolate the sole impact of installation of heat cost allocators on a single building in multifamily houses connected to district heating systems. Special emphasises will be given regression analysis, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision trees and random forest method.

Keywords: district heating, heat cost allocator, energy efficiency, machine learning, decision tree model, regression analysis, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision trees and random forest method

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Authors: M. Ouassaf, S. Belaid

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A series of quinoline derivatives with antimalarial activity were subjected to two-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (2D-QSAR) studies. Three models were implemented using multiple regression linear MLR, a regression partial least squares (PLS), nonlinear regression (MNLR), to see which descriptors are closely related to the activity biologic. We relied on a principal component analysis (PCA). Based on our results, a comparison of the quality of, MLR, PLS, and MNLR models shows that the MNLR (R = 0.914 and R² = 0.835, RCV= 0.853) models have substantially better predictive capability because the MNLR approach gives better results than MLR (R = 0.835 and R² = 0,752, RCV=0.601)), PLS (R = 0.742 and R² = 0.552, RCV=0.550) The model of MNLR gave statistically significant results and showed good stability to data variation in leave-one-out cross-validation. The obtained results suggested that our proposed model MNLR may be useful to predict the biological activity of derivatives of quinoline.

Keywords: antimalarial, quinoline, QSAR, PCA, MLR , MNLR, MLR

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Authors: Dieudonne Uwizeye

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Introduction: Diarrhoea is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality among communities living in urban informal settlements of developing countries. It is assumed that mountainous environment introduces variations of the burden among residents of the same settlements. Design and Objective: A cross-sectional study was done in Kigali to explore the effect of mountainous informal settlements on diarrhoea risk variations. Data were collected among 1,152 households through household survey and transect walk to observe the status of sanitation. The outcome variable was the incidence of diarrhoea among household members of any age. The study used the most knowledgeable person in the household as the main respondent. Mostly this was the woman of the house as she was more likely to know the health status of every household member as she plays various roles: mother, wife, and head of the household among others. The analysis used cross tabulation and logistic regression analysis. Results: Results suggest that risks for diarrhoea vary depending on home location in the settlements. Diarrhoea risk increased as the distance from the road increased. The results of the logistic regression analysis indicate the adjusted odds ratio of 2.97 with 95% confidence interval being 1.35-6.55 and 3.50 adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval being 1.61-7.60 in level two and three respectively compared with level one. The status of sanitation within and around homes was also significantly associated with the increase of diarrhoea. Equally, it is indicated that stable households were less likely to have diarrhoea. The logistic regression analysis indicated the adjusted odds ratio of 0.45 with 95% confidence interval being 0.25-0.81. However, the study did not find evidence for a significant association between diarrhoea risks and household socioeconomic status in the multivariable model. It is assumed that environmental factors in mountainous settings prevailed. Households using the available public water sources were more likely to have diarrhoea in their households. Recommendation: The study recommends the provision and extension of infrastructure for improved water, drainage, sanitation and wastes management facilities. Equally, studies should be done to identify the level of contamination and potential origin of contaminants for water sources in the valleys to adequately control the risks for diarrhoea in mountainous urban settings.

Keywords: urbanisation, diarrhoea risk, mountainous environment, urban informal settlements in Rwanda

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Authors: Dwi Kartika Rukmi, Miftafu Darussalam

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Background: The disclosure of women’s HIV status toward their sexual partners is an important issue that should be regarded as one of the efforts to prevent and control the spread of HIV. Research on the disclosure of seropositive HIV status as well as women-related factors in Indonesia, especially Yogyakarta is only a few. Methods: This is a correlational descriptive research along with its cross-sectional approach on 329 women with HIV/AIDS at the Victory Plus NGO from June to July 2016. This research used a purposive sampling method and a questionnaire as the data collection technique. The bivariate analysis test was undertaken by using a chi-square and multivariate test along with a logistic regression. Result: The multivariate analysis and logistic regression show five independent variables related to the disclosure of seropositive HIV status of women with HIV/AIDS toward their sexual partners, namely ethnicity (aOR = 36,859; 95% CI; (6,544-207,616)) religion (aOR =0,255; 95%CI; (0,075-0,868)), discussion with partners prior to the HIV test (aOR =0,069; 95%CI; (0,065-0,438)) , types of sexual partners (aOR = 0.191; 95% CI; (0.082-0,445)) and knowledge on the partners’ HIV status (aOR = 0.036; 95% CI; (0.008-0.160)). The highest level of reason for seropositive HIV women not to be open about their partners’ status is the fear of being rejected by their partners and the environmental stigma of HIV AIDS disease. Conclusion: The disclosure of seropositive HIV status in women with HIV/AIDS in the Victory Plus NGO of Yogyakarta was 79.4% or classified as a high category with some related factors such as ethnicity, religion, discussion with partners prior to the HIV test, types of partners and knowledge on the partners’ HIV status.

Keywords: women, HIV, disclosure, sexual partner

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Authors: Tahir Nawaz Cheema, Dumitru Baleanu, Ali Raza

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In this research work, we design intelligent computing through Bayesian Regularization artificial neural networks (BRANNs) introduced to solve the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases (Covid-19). The dynamical transmission is due to the interaction of people and its mathematical representation based on the system's nonlinear differential equations. The generation of the dataset of the Covid-19 model is exploited by the power of the explicit Runge Kutta method for different countries of the world like India, Pakistan, Italy, and many more. The generated dataset is approximately used for training, testing, and validation processes for every frequent update in Bayesian Regularization backpropagation for numerical behavior of the dynamics of the Covid-19 model. The performance and effectiveness of designed methodology BRANNs are checked through mean squared error, error histograms, numerical solutions, absolute error, and regression analysis.

Keywords: mathematical models, beysian regularization, bayesian-regularization backpropagation networks, regression analysis, numerical computing

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Authors: Anjali Chouksey, Riya Nimje, Jahanvi Saraf

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Online transactions have increased dramatically in this new ‘social-distancing’ era. With online transactions, Fraud in online payments has also increased significantly. Frauds are a significant problem in various industries like insurance companies, baking, etc. These frauds include leaking sensitive information related to the credit card, which can be easily misused. Due to the government also pushing online transactions, E-commerce is on a boom. But due to increasing frauds in online payments, these E-commerce industries are suffering a great loss of trust from their customers. These companies are finding credit card fraud to be a big problem. People have started using online payment options and thus are becoming easy targets of credit card fraud. In this research paper, we will be discussing machine learning algorithms. We have used a decision tree, XGBOOST, k-nearest neighbour, logistic-regression, random forest, and SVM on a dataset in which there are transactions done online mode using credit cards. We will test all these algorithms for detecting fraud cases using the confusion matrix, F1 score, and calculating the accuracy score for each model to identify which algorithm can be used in detecting frauds.

Keywords: machine learning, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, decision tree, k nearest neighbour, random forest, XGBOOST, logistic regression, support vector machine

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Authors: Aishwarya Ravindra Fursule, Shruti Kshirsagar

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In the intersection of artificial intelligence and human-centered computing, this paper delves into speech emotion recognition (SER). It presents a comparative analysis of machine learning models such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN),logistic regression, support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, ensemble classifiers, and random forests, applied to SER. The research employs four datasets: Crema D, SAVEE, TESS, and RAVDESS. It focuses on extracting salient audio signal features like Zero Crossing Rate (ZCR), Chroma_stft, Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC), root mean square (RMS) value, and MelSpectogram. These features are used to train and evaluate the models’ ability to recognize eight types of emotions from speech: happy, sad, neutral, angry, calm, disgust, fear, and surprise. Among the models, the Random Forest algorithm demonstrated superior performance, achieving approximately 79% accuracy. This suggests its suitability for SER within the parameters of this study. The research contributes to SER by showcasing the effectiveness of various machine learning algorithms and feature extraction techniques. The findings hold promise for the development of more precise emotion recognition systems in the future. This abstract provides a succinct overview of the paper’s content, methods, and results.

Keywords: comparison, ML classifiers, KNN, decision tree, SVM, random forest, logistic regression, ensemble classifiers

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Authors: Abdisalam Hassan Muse, Samuel Mwalili, Oscar Ngesa

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A generalized log-logistic distribution with variable shapes of the hazard rate was introduced and studied, extending the log-logistic distribution by adding an extra parameter to the classical distribution, leading to greater flexibility in analysing and modeling various data types. The proposed distribution has a large number of well-known lifetime special sub-models such as; Weibull, log-logistic, exponential, and Burr XII distributions. Its basic mathematical and statistical properties were derived. The method of maximum likelihood was adopted for estimating the unknown parameters of the proposed distribution, and a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to assess the behavior of the estimators. The importance of this distribution is that its tendency to model both monotone (increasing and decreasing) and non-monotone (unimodal and bathtub shape) or reversed “bathtub” shape hazard rate functions which are quite common in survival and reliability data analysis. Furthermore, the flexibility and usefulness of the proposed distribution are illustrated in a real-life data set and compared to its sub-models; Weibull, log-logistic, and BurrXII distributions and other parametric survival distributions with 3-parmaeters; like the exponentiated Weibull distribution, the 3-parameter lognormal distribution, the 3- parameter gamma distribution, the 3-parameter Weibull distribution, and the 3-parameter log-logistic (also known as shifted log-logistic) distribution. The proposed distribution provided a better fit than all of the competitive distributions based on the goodness-of-fit tests, the log-likelihood, and information criterion values. Finally, Bayesian analysis and performance of Gibbs sampling for the data set are also carried out.

Keywords: hazard rate function, log-logistic distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, generalized log-logistic distribution, survival data, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Daming Xu, Yuanyuan Wang

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Abstract: Under the trend of rapid expansion of urbanization, the motorized urban characteristics become more and more obvious, and the walkability of urban space is seriously affected. The construction of walkability of space, as the main mode of travel for the elderly in their daily lives, has become more and more important in the current social context of serious aging. Settlement is the most basic living unit of residents, and daily shopping, medical care, and other daily trips are closely related to the daily life of the elderly. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to explore the impact of built environment on elderly people's daily walking trips at the settlement level for the construction of pedestrian-friendly settlements for the elderly. The study takes three typical settlements in Harbin Daoli District in three different periods as examples and obtains data on elderly people's walking trips and built environment characteristics through field research, questionnaire distribution, and internet data acquisition. Finally, correlation analysis and multinomial logistic regression model were applied to analyze the influence mechanism of built environment on elderly people's walkability based on the control of personal attribute variables in order to provide reference and guidance for the construction of walkability for elderly people in built environment in the future.

Keywords: built environment, elderly, walkability, multinomial logistic regression model

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Authors: Boo-Sung Koh, Seung-Eock Kim

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In this paper, a direct design using a nonlinear inelastic analysis is suggested. Also, this paper compares the load carrying capacity obtained by a nonlinear inelastic analysis with experiment results to verify the accuracy of the results. The allowable stress design results of a railroad through a plate girder bridge and the safety factor of the nonlinear inelastic analysis were compared to examine the safety performance. As a result, the load safety factor for the nonlinear inelastic analysis was twice as high as the required safety factor under the allowable stress design standard specified in the civil engineering structure design standards for urban magnetic levitation railways, which further verified the advantages of the proposed direct design method.

Keywords: direct design, nonlinear inelastic analysis, residual stress, initial geometric imperfection

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Authors: Emmanuel Osaze Oshoiribhor, Adetokunbo MacGregor John-Otumu

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There has been a need in recent years to predict student academic achievement prior to graduation. This is to assist them in improving their grades, especially for those who have struggled in the past. The purpose of this research is to use supervised learning techniques to create a model that predicts student academic progress. Many scholars have developed models that predict student academic achievement based on characteristics including smoking, demography, culture, social media, parent educational background, parent finances, and family background, to mention a few. This element, as well as the model used, could have misclassified the kids in terms of their academic achievement. As a prerequisite to predicting if the student will perform well in the future on related courses, this model is built using a logistic regression classifier with basic features such as the previous semester's course score, attendance to class, class participation, and the total number of course materials or resources the student is able to cover per semester. With a 96.7 percent accuracy, the model outperformed other classifiers such as Naive bayes, Support vector machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Random forest, and Adaboost. This model is offered as a desktop application with user-friendly interfaces for forecasting student academic progress for both teachers and students. As a result, both students and professors are encouraged to use this technique to predict outcomes better.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ML, logistic regression, performance, prediction

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Authors: Nurten Akgun, Dilum Dissanayake, Neil Thorpe, Margaret C. Bell

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Cycling has gained a great attention with comparable speeds, low cost, health benefits and reducing the impact on the environment. The main challenge associated with cycling is the provision of safety for the people choosing to cycle as their main means of transport. From the road safety point of view, cyclists are considered as vulnerable road users because they are at higher risk of serious casualty in the urban network but more specifically at roundabouts. This research addresses the development of an enhanced mathematical model by including a broad spectrum of casualty related variables. These variables were geometric design measures (approach number of lanes and entry path radius), speed limit, meteorological condition variables (light, weather, road surface) and socio-demographic characteristics (age and gender), as well as contributory factors. Contributory factors included driver’s behavior related variables such as failed to look properly, sudden braking, a vehicle passing too close to a cyclist, junction overshot, failed to judge other person’s path, restart moving off at the junction, poor turn or manoeuvre and disobeyed give-way. Tyne and Wear in the UK were selected as a case study area. The cyclist casualty data was obtained from UK STATS19 National dataset. The reference categories for the regression model were set to slight and serious cyclist casualties. Therefore, binary logistic regression was applied. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that approach number of lanes was statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence. A higher number of approach lanes increased the probability of severity of cyclist casualty occurrence. In addition, sudden braking statistically significantly increased the cyclist casualty severity at the 95% level of confidence. The result concluded that cyclist casualty severity was highly related to approach a number of lanes and sudden braking. Further research should be carried out an in-depth analysis to explore connectivity of sudden braking and approach number of lanes in order to investigate the driver’s behavior at approach locations. The output of this research will inform investment in measure to improve the safety of cyclists at roundabouts.

Keywords: binary logistic regression, casualty severity, cyclist safety, roundabout

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Authors: Muhamad N. Borhan, Nur S. Darus, Siti Z. Ishak, Rozmi Ismail, Siti F. M. Razali

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Children are at the greater risk to be involved in road traffic collisions due to the complex interaction of various elements in our transportation system. It encompasses interactions between the elements of children and driver behavior along with physical and social environment factors. The present study examined the effect between the collisions severity and physical environment factors on child pedestrian collisions. The severity of collisions is categorized into four injury outcomes: fatal, serious injury, slight injury, and damage. The sample size comprised of 2487 cases of child pedestrian-vehicle collisions in which children aged 7 to 12 years old was involved in Malaysia for the years 2006-2015. A multinomial logistic regression was applied to establish the effect between severity levels and physical environment factors. The results showed that eight contributing factors influence the probability of an injury road surface material, traffic system, road marking, control type, lighting condition, type of location, land use and road surface condition. Understanding the effect of physical environment factors may contribute to the improvement of physical environment design and decrease the collision involvement.

Keywords: child pedestrian, collisions, primary school, road injuries

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Authors: Süleyman Günes

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The crucial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have on social and economic systems in Turkey as well as all over the world. It has impacted logistic providers and worldwide supply chains. Unexpected risks played a central role in creating vulnerabilities for logistics service operations during the pandemic terms. This study aims to research and design qualitative and quantitive contributions to logistic services. The COVID-19 pandemic brought unavoidable risks to the logistics industry in Turkey. The Logistic Service Providers (LSPs) have learned how to ensure uncertainties and risks triggered by main and adverse effects. The risks that LSPs encounter during the COVID-19 pandemic have been investigated and unveiled, and identified uncertainties and risks. The cause-effect structures were displayed by the qualitative and quantitive studies. The results suggest that supply chains and demand changes triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic while it influenced financial failure and forecast horizon with operational performances.

Keywords: logistic service providers, COVID-19, development, financial failure

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Authors: H. Triki, Y. Hamaizi, A. El-Akrmi

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We consider the higher order nonlinear Schrödinger equation model with fourth-order dispersion, cubic-quintic terms, and self-steepening. This equation governs the propagation of fem to second pulses in optical fibers. We present new bright and dark solitary wave type solutions for such a model under certain parametric conditions. This kind of solution may be useful to explain some physical phenomena related to wave propagation in a nonlinear optical fiber systems supporting high-order nonlinear and dispersive effects.

Keywords: nonlinear Schrödinger equation, high-order effects, soliton solution

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Authors: Jummalla Aashrith, N. L. Shiva Sai, K. Bhavya Sri

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The swift progress of web technology has not only amassed a vast reservoir of internet data but also triggered a substantial surge in data generation. The internet has metamorphosed into one of the dynamic hubs for online education, idea dissemination, as well as opinion-sharing. Notably, the widely utilized social networking platform Twitter is experiencing considerable expansion, providing users with the ability to share viewpoints, participate in discussions spanning diverse communities, and broadcast messages on a global scale. The upswing in online engagement has sparked a significant curiosity in subjective analysis, particularly when it comes to Twitter data. This research is committed to delving into sentiment analysis, focusing specifically on the realm of Twitter. It aims to offer valuable insights into deciphering information within tweets, where opinions manifest in a highly unstructured and diverse manner, spanning a spectrum from positivity to negativity, occasionally punctuated by neutrality expressions. Within this document, we offer a comprehensive exploration and comparative assessment of modern approaches to opinion mining. Employing a range of machine learning algorithms such as Naive Bayes and Logistic Regression, our investigation plunges into the domain of Twitter data streams. We delve into overarching challenges and applications inherent in the realm of subjectivity analysis over Twitter.

Keywords: machine learning, sentiment analysis, visualisation, python

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Authors: Wataru Nakamura, Tomoaki Hashimoto, Liang-Kuang Chen

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This paper provides a state estimation method for automatic control systems of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. A nonlinear tire model is employed to represent the realistic behavior of a vehicle. In general, all the state variables of control systems are not precisedly known, because those variables are observed through output sensors and limited parts of them might be only measurable. Hence, automatic control systems must incorporate some type of state estimation. It is needed to establish a state estimation method for nonlinear vehicle dynamics with restricted measurable state variables. For this purpose, unscented Kalman filter method is applied in this study for estimating the state variables of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The objective of this paper is to propose a state estimation method using unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: state estimation, control systems, observer systems, nonlinear systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Atikah Nurhayati, Asep A. Handaka

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Indonesia is a world’s major fish producer which can feed not only its citizens but also the people of the world. Currently, the total annual production is 11 tons and expected to double by the year of 2050. Given the potential, fishery has been an important part of the national food security system in Indonesia. Despite such a potential, a big challenge is facing the Indonesians in making fish the reliable source for their food, more specifically source of protein intake. The long geographic distance between the fish production centers and the consumer concentrations has prevented effective supply chain from producers to consumers and therefore demands a good logistic system. This paper is based on our research, which aimed at analyzing the fish supply chain and is to suggest relevant improvement to the chain. The research was conducted in the Year of 2016 in selected locations of Java Island, where intensive transaction on fishery commodities occur. Data used in this research comprises secondary data of time series reports on production and distribution and primary data regarding distribution aspects which were collected through interviews with purposively selected 100 respondents representing fishers, traders and processors. The data were analyzed following the supply chain management framework and processed following logistic regression and validity tests. The main findings of the research are as follows. Firstly, it was found that improperly managed connectivity and logistic chain is the main cause for insecurity of availability and affordability for the consumers. Secondly, lack of quality of most local processed products is a major obstacle for improving affordability and connectivity. The paper concluded with a number of recommended strategies to tackle the problem. These include rationalization of the length of the existing supply chain, intensification of processing activities, and improvement of distribution infrastructure and facilities.

Keywords: fishery, food security, logistic, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: Alam Zeb, Glen W. Armstrong, Muhammad Qasim

Abstract:

Loss of forest cover is one of the most important land cover changes and has been of great concern to policy makers. This study quantified forest cover changes over pre logging ban (1973-1993) and post logging ban (1993-2015) to examine the role of geophysical factors and spatial attributes of land in the two periods. We show that despite a complete ban on green felling, forest cover decreased by 28% and mostly converted to rangeland. Nevertheless, the logging ban was completely effective in controlling agriculture expansion. The binary logistic regression revealed that the south facing aspects at low elevation witnessed more deforestation in the pre-ban period compared to post-ban. Opposite to deforestation, forest degradation was more prominent on the northern aspects at higher elevation during the policy period. Agriculture expansion was widespread in the low elevation flat areas with gentle slope, while during the policy period agriculture contraction in the form of regeneration was observed on the low elevation areas of north facing slopes. All proximity variables, except distance to administrative boundary, showed a similar trend across the two periods and were important explanatory variables in understanding forest and agriculture expansion. The changes in determinants of forest and agriculture expansion and contraction over the two periods might be attributed to the influence of policy and a general decrease in resource availability.

Keywords: forest conservation , wood harvesting ban, logistic regression, deforestation, forest degradation, agriculture expansion, Chitral, Pakistan

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Authors: Hirbaye Mokona, Abebaw Gebeyehu, Aemro Zerihun

Abstract:

Introduction: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder is serious public health problem affecting millions of children throughout the world. Method: A cross-sectional study conducted from May to June 2015 among children age 6 to 17 years living in rural area of Girja district. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was used to select 1302 study participants. Disruptive Behavior Disorder rating scale was used to collect the data. Data were coded, entered and cleaned by Epi-Data version 3.1 and analyzed by SPSS version 20. Logistic regression analysis was used and Variables that have P-values less than 0.05 on multivariable logistic regression was considered as statistically significant. Results: Prevalence of Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) among children age 6 to 17 years was 7.3%. Being male [AOR=1.81, 95%CI: (1.13, 2.91)]; living with single parent [AOR=5.0, 95%CI: (2.35, 10.65)]; child birth order/rank [AOR=2.35, 95%CI: (1.30, 4.25)]; low family socio-economic status [AOR= 2.43, 95%CI: (1.29, 4.59)]; maternal alcohol/khat use during pregnancy [AOR=3.14, 95%CI: (1.37, 7.37)] and complication at delivery [AOR=3.56, 95%CI: (1.19, 10.64)] were more likely to develop Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Conclusion: In this study, the prevalence of Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder was similar with worldwide prevalence. Prevention and early management of its modifiable risk factors should be carryout alongside increasing community awareness.

Keywords: attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, ADHD, associated factors, children, prevalence

Procedia PDF Downloads 159