Search results for: Scenario Plannnig

Authors: Yehuda Roth

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In quantum theory, a system’s time evolution is predictable unless an observer performs measurement, as the measurement process can randomize the system. This randomness appears when the measuring device does not accurately describe the measured item, i.e., when the states characterizing the measuring device appear as a superposition of those being measured. When such a mismatch occurs, the measured data randomly collapse into a single eigenstate of the measuring device. This scenario resembles the interpretation process in which the observer does not experience an objective reality but interprets it based on preliminary descriptions initially ingrained into his/her mind. This distinction is the motivation for the present study in which the collapse scenario is regarded as part of the interpretation process of the observer. By adopting the formalism of the quantum theory, we present a complete mathematical approach that describes the interpretation process. We demonstrate this process by applying the proposed interpretation formalism to the ambiguous image "My wife and mother-in-law" to identify whether a woman in the picture is young or old.

Keywords: quantum-like interpretation, ambiguous image, determination, quantum-like collapse, classified representation

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Authors: Youssef El Makhrout, Aude Pommeret, Tunç Durmaz

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This paper analyses the consequences of a heat pump on the optimal behavior of a prosumer. A theoretical microeconomic model is developed for household heating and electricity consumption to analyze the profitability of installing a solar PV system with a heat pump, battery storage, and grid use. The aim is to present the optimal scenario of investment in renewable energy equipment to cover domestic and heating needs. Simulation data of a French house of 170m² in Chambery are used in this paper. The house is divided into 5 zones with 3 heated zones of 89.4 m² occupied by two people. The analysis is based on hourly data for one year, from 00:00 01/01/2021 to 23:00 31/12/2021. Results indicate that without taking the cost of materials and no financial aid, the most profitable scenario for a household is when he owns solar panels, a heat pump, and battery storage. However, with the costs and financial aid of the French government for energy renovation, the net economic surplus change and the profitability during 20 years are important when the household decides to add a heat pump to existing solar panels. In this scenario, the household can realize 35.84% as a surplus change improvement, but this cannot cover all installation costs. The household can get benefits and cover all installation costs after exploiting financial support in the case of adopting a heat pump. The investment in a battery is still not profitable because of its high cost and the lack of financial aid. Some public policy recommendations are proposed, especially for solar panels and battery storage.

Keywords: household’s heating, prosumer, electricity consumption, renewable energy, welfare gain, comfort, solar PV, heat pumps, storage

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Authors: Aldona Kluczek

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Energy efficient process have become a pressing research field in manufacturing. The arguments for having an effective industrial energy efficiency processes are interacted with factors: economic and environmental impact, and energy security. Improvements in energy efficiency are most often achieved by implementation of more efficient technology or manufacturing process. Current processes of electricity production represents the biggest consumption of energy and the greatest amount of emissions to the environment. The goal of this study is to improve the potential energy-savings and reduce greenhouse emissions related to improvement scenarios for the treatment of hardwood lumber produced by an industrial plant operating in the U.S. through the application of green balancing procedure, in order to find the preferable efficient technology. The green procedure for energy is based on analysis of energy efficiency data. Three alternative scenarios of the cogeneration systems plant (CHP) construction are considered: generation of fresh steam, the purchase of a new boiler with the operating pressure 300 pounds per square inch gauge (PSIG), an installation of a new boiler with a 600 PSIG pressure. In this paper, the application of a bottom-down modelling for energy flow to devise a streamlined Energy and Emission Flow Analyze method for the technology of producing electricity is illustrated. It will identify efficiency or technology of a given process to be reached, through the effective use of energy, or energy management. Results have shown that the third scenario seem to be the efficient alternative scenario considered from the environmental and economic concerns for treating hardwood lumber. The energy conservation evaluation options could save an estimated 6,215.78 MMBtu/yr in each year, which represents 9.5% of the total annual energy usage. The total annual potential cost savings from all recommendations is $143,523/yr, which represents 30.1% of the total annual energy costs. Estimation have presented that energy cost savings are possible up to 43% (US$ 143,337.85), representing 18.6% of the total annual energy costs.

Keywords: alternative scenario improvements, cogeneration system, energy and emission flow analyze, energy balancing, green procedure, hardwood lumber manufacturing process

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Authors: Rajeshkumar Mahendrabhai Patel, Narendrakumar D. Vasava

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It is seen that higher education in India requires a high degree of attention for the quality. The Government of India has been putting its efforts to improvise the quality of higher education through different means such as need based changes in the policy of higher education, accreditation of the institutions of higher education and many others. The Social Work education in India started way back in Tata School of Social Sciences in the year 1936. Gradually the need for social work education was felt, and different institution started imparting social work education in different regions. Due to the poor educational policy of Gujarat state (The Concept of Self-Financed Education) different Universities initiated the MSW program on a self-financed basis. The present scenario of the Social work Education in Gujarat faces ample challenges and problems which need to be addressed consciously. The present paper will try to examine and analyze the challenges and problems such as curriculum, staffing, quality of teaching, the pattern of education etc. The probable responses to this scenario are also discussed in this paper.

Keywords: social work education, challenges, problems, responses, self-financed education in Gujarat

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Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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Authors: Meng Xu, Alexis K. H. Lau, Ming Xu, Bill Barron, Narges Shahraki

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As an emerging unconventional energy, shale gas has been an economically viable step towards a cleaner energy future in U.S. China also has shale resources that are estimated to be potentially the largest in the world. In addition, China has enormous unmet for a clean alternative to substitute coal. Nonetheless, the geological complexity of China’s shale basins and issues of water scarcity potentially impose serious constraints on shale gas development in China. Further, even if China could replicate to a significant degree the U.S. shale gas boom, China faces the problem of transporting the gas efficiently overland with its limited pipeline network throughput capacity and coverage. The aim of this study is to identify the potential bottlenecks in China’s gas transmission network, as well as to examine the shale gas development affecting particular supply locations and demand centers. We examine this through application of three scenarios with projecting domestic shale gas supply by 2020: optimistic, medium and conservative shale gas supply, taking references from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) projections and China’s shale gas development plans. Separately we project the gas demand at provincial level, since shale gas will have more significant impact regionally than nationally. To quantitatively assess each shale gas development scenario, we formulated a gas pipeline optimization model. We used ArcGIS to generate the connectivity parameters and pipeline segment length. Other parameters are collected from provincial “twelfth-five year” plans and “China Oil and Gas Pipeline Atlas”. The multi-objective optimization model uses GAMs and Matlab. It aims to minimize the demands that are unable to be met, while simultaneously seeking to minimize total gas supply and transmission costs. The results indicate that, even if the primary objective is to meet the projected gas demand rather than cost minimization, there’s a shortfall of 9% in meeting total demand under the medium scenario. Comparing the results between the optimistic and medium supply of shale gas scenarios, almost half of the shale gas produced in Sichuan province and Chongqing won’t be able to be transmitted out by pipeline. On the demand side, the Henan province and Shanghai gas demand gap could be filled as much as 82% and 39% respectively, with increased shale gas supply. To conclude, the pipeline network in China is currently not sufficient in meeting the projected natural gas demand in 2020 under medium and optimistic scenarios, indicating the need for substantial pipeline capacity expansion for some of the existing network, and the importance of constructing new pipelines from particular supply to demand sites. If the pipeline constraint is overcame, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Henan’s gas demand gap could potentially be filled, and China could thereby reduce almost 25% its dependency on LNG imports under the optimistic scenario.

Keywords: energy policy, energy systematic analysis, scenario analysis, shale gas in China

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Authors: Umut Tac, Leyla Tavacioglu, Pelin Bolat

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Human factor has been one of the elements that cause vulnerabilities which can be resulted with accidents in maritime transportation. When the roots of human factor based accidents are analyzed, gaps in performing cognitive abilities (reaction time, attention, memory…) are faced as the main reasons for the vulnerabilities in complex environment of maritime systems. Thus cognitive processes in maritime systems have arisen important subject that should be investigated comprehensively. At this point, neurocognitive tests such as reaction time analysis tests have been used as coherent tools that enable us to make valid assessments for cognitive status. In this respect, the aim of this study is to evaluate the reaction time (response time or latency) of seafarers due to their occupational experience and age. For this study, reaction time for different maneuverers has been taken while the participants were performing a sea voyage through a simulator which was run up with a certain scenario. After collecting the data for reaction time, a statistical analyze has been done to understand the relation between occupational experience and cognitive abilities.

Keywords: cognitive abilities, human factor, neurocognitive test battery, reaction time

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Authors: Jinghua Zhang

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Shaft-tunnel junction is a typical case of the structural nonuniformity in underground structures. The shaft and the tunnel possess greatly different structural features. Even under uniform excitations, they tend to behave discrepantly. Studies on shaft-tunnel junctions are mainly performed numerically. Shaking table tests are also conducted. Although many numerical and experimental data are obtained, an analytical solution still has great merits of gaining more insights into the shaft-tunnel problem. This paper will try to remedy the situation. Since the seismic responses of shaft-tunnel junctions are very related to directions of the excitations, they are studied in two scenarios: the longitudinal-excitation scenario and the transverse-excitation scenario. The former scenario will be addressed in this paper. Given that responses of the tunnel are highly dependent on the shaft, the analytical solutions would be developed firstly for the vertical shaft. Then, the seismic responses of the tunnel would be discussed. Since vertical shafts bear a resemblance to rigid caissons, the solution proposed in this paper is derived by introducing terms of shaft-tunnel and soil-tunnel interactions into equations originally developed for rigid caissons. The validity of the solution is examined by a validation model computed by finite element method. The mutual influence between the shaft and the tunnel is introduced. The soil-structure interactions are discussed parametrically based on the proposed equations. The shaft-tunnel relative displacement and the soil-tunnel relative stiffness are found to be the most important parameters affecting the magnitudes and distributions of the internal forces of the tunnel. A hinge-joint at the shaft-tunnel junction could significantly reduce the degree of stress concentration compared with a rigid joint.

Keywords: analytical solution, longitudinal excitation, numerical validation , shaft-tunnel junction

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Authors: Avi Harel

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Most accidents are commonly attributed in hindsight to human errors, yet most methodologies for safety focus on technical issues. According to the Black Swan theory, this paradox is due to insufficient data about the ways systems fail. The article presents a study of the sources of errors, and proposes a methodology for utility-oriented design, comprising methods for coping with each of the sources identified. Accident analysis indicates that errors typically result from difficulties of operating in exceptional conditions. Therefore, following STAMP, the focus should be on preventing exceptions. Exception analysis indicates that typically they involve an improper account of the operational scenario, due to deficiencies in the system integration. The methodology proposes a model, which is a formal definition of the system operation, as well as principles and guidelines for safety-oriented system integration. The article calls to develop and integrate tools for recording and analysis of the system activity during the operation, required to implement validate the model.

Keywords: accidents, complexity, errors, exceptions, interaction, modeling, resilience, risks

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Authors: Shaidatul Azdawiyah Abdul Talib, Wan Mohd Razi Idris, Liew Ju Neng, Tukimat Lihan, Muhammad Zamir Abdul Rasid

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Climate change has received great attention worldwide due to the impact of weather causing extreme events. Rainfall and temperature are crucial weather components associated with climate change. In Malaysia, increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution patterns lead to drought and flood events involving agricultural areas, especially rice fields. Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA) is the largest rice growing area among the 10 granary areas in Malaysia and has faced floods and droughts in the past due to changing climate. Changes in rainfall and temperature patter affect rice yield. Therefore, trend analysis is important to identify changes in temperature and rainfall patterns as it gives an initial overview for further analysis. Six locations across the MADA area were selected based on the availability of meteorological station (MetMalaysia) data. Historical data (1991 to 2020) collected from MetMalaysia and future climate projection by multi-model ensemble of climate model from CMIP5 (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) have been analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the time series trend, together with standardized precipitation anomaly, rainfall anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and temperature anomaly. Future projection data were analyzed based on 3 different periods; early century (2020 – 2046), middle century (2047 – 2073) and late-century (2074 – 2099). Results indicate that the MADA area does encounter extremely wet and dry conditions, leading to drought and flood events in the past. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test discovered a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in annual rainfall (z = 0.40; s = 15.12) and temperature (z = 0.61; s = 0.04) during the historical period. Similarly, for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) was found for rainfall (RCP 4.5: z = 0.15; s = 2.55; RCP 8.5: z = 0.41; s = 8.05;) and temperature (RCP 4.5: z = 0.84; s = 0.02; RCP 8.5: z = 0.94; s = 0.05). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.6 °C in early century, 2.0 °C in the middle century and 2.4 °C in the late century. In contrast, under RCP 8.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.8 °C in the early century, 3.1 °C in the middle century and 4.3 °C in late century. Drought is projected to occur in 2038 and 2043 (early century); 2052 and 2069 (middle century); and 2095, 2097 to 2099 (late century) under RCP 4.5 scenario. As for RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is projected to occur in 2021, 2031 and 2034 (early century); and 2069 (middle century). No drought is projected to occur in the late century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Thus, this information can be used for the analysis of the impact of climate change scenarios on rice growth and yield besides other crops found in MADA area. Additionally, this study, it would be helpful for researchers and decision-makers in developing applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change.

Keywords: climate projection, drought, flood, rainfall, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, temperature

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

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Transport infrastructures are high-cost, long-term investments that serve as vital foundations for the operation of a region or nation and are essential to a country’s or business’s economic development and prosperity, by improving well-being and generating jobs and income. The development of appropriate financing options is of key importance in the decision making process in order develop viable transport infrastructures. The development of transport infrastructure has increasingly been shifting toward alternative methods of project financing such as Public Private Partnership (PPPs) and hybrid forms. In this paper, a methodological decision-making framework based on the evaluation of the financial viability of transportation infrastructure for different financial schemes is presented. The framework leads to an assessment of the financial viability which can be achieved by performing various financing scenarios analyses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, a case study of rail transport infrastructure financing scenario analysis in Greece is developed.

Keywords: rail transport infrastructure, financial viability, scenario analysis, rail project feasibility

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Authors: Farzaneh Sasanpour, Saeed Amini Varaki

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Resilience is an important goal for cities as urban areas face an increasing range of challenges in the 21st century; therefore, according to the characteristics of risks, adopting an approach that responds to sensitive conditions in the risk management process is the resilience of cities. In the meantime, most of the resilience assessments have dealt with natural hazards and less attention has been paid to pandemics.In the covid-19 pandemic, the country of Iran and especially the metropolis of Tehran, was not immune from the crisis caused by its effects and consequences and faced many challenges. One of the methods that can increase the resilience of Tehran's metropolis against possible crises in the future is future studies. This research is practical in terms of type. The general pattern of the research will be descriptive-analytical and from the point of view that it is trying to communicate between the components and provide urban resilience indicators with pandemic crises and explain the scenarios, its future studies method is exploratory. In order to extract and determine the key factors and driving forces effective on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), the method of structural analysis of mutual effects and Micmac software was used. Therefore, the primary factors and variables affecting the resilience of Tehran's urban areas were set in 5 main factors, including physical-infrastructural (transportation, spatial and physical organization, streets and roads, multi-purpose development) with 39 variables based on mutual effects analysis. Finally, key factors and variables in five main areas, including managerial-institutional with five variables; Technology (intelligence) with 3 variables; economic with 2 variables; socio-cultural with 3 variables; and physical infrastructure, were categorized with 7 variables. These factors and variables have been used as key factors and effective driving forces on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), in explaining and developing scenarios. In order to develop the scenarios for the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), intuitive logic, scenario planning as one of the future research methods and the Global Business Network (GBN) model were used. Finally, four scenarios have been drawn and selected with a creative method using the metaphor of weather conditions, which is indicative of the general outline of the conditions of the metropolis of Tehran in that situation. Therefore, the scenarios of Tehran metropolis were obtained in the form of four scenarios: 1- solar scenario (optimal governance and management leading in smart technology) 2- cloud scenario (optimal governance and management following in intelligent technology) 3- dark scenario (optimal governance and management Unfavorable leader in intelligence technology) 4- Storm scenario (unfavorable governance and management of follower in intelligence technology). The solar scenario shows the best situation and the stormy scenario shows the worst situation for the Tehran metropolis. According to the findings obtained in this research, city managers can, in order to achieve a better tomorrow for the metropolis of Tehran, in all the factors and components of urban resilience against pandemic crises by using future research methods, a coherent picture with the long-term horizon of 2050, from the path Provide urban resilience movement and platforms for upgrading and increasing the capacity to deal with the crisis. To create the necessary platforms for the realization, development and evolution of the urban areas of Tehran in a way that guarantees long-term balance and stability in all dimensions and levels.

Keywords: future research, resilience, crisis, pandemic, covid-19, Tehran

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Authors: Yakubu Adamu, Baba Alfa, Salahudeen Adamu Gene

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As the drive towards clean, renewable and sustainable energy generation is gradually been reshaped by renewable penetration over time, energy storage has thus, become an optimal solution for utilities looking to reduce transmission and capacity cost, therefore the need for capacity resources to be adjusted accordingly such that renewable energy storage may have the opportunity to substitute for retiring conventional energy systems with higher capacity factors. Considering the Nigeria scenario, where Over 80% of the current Nigerian primary energy consumption is met by petroleum, electricity demand is set to more than double by mid-century, relative to 2025 levels. With renewable energy penetration rapidly increasing, in particular biomass, hydro power, solar and wind energy, it is expected to account for the largest share of power output in the coming decades. Despite this rapid growth, the imbalance between load and resources has created a hindrance to the development of energy storage capacity, load and resources, hence forecasting energy storage capacity will therefore play an important role in maintaining the balance between load and resources including supply and demand. Therefore, the degree to which this might occur, its timing and more importantly its sustainability, is the subject matter of the current research. Here, we forecast the future energy storage capacity rating and thus, evaluate the load and resource scenario in Nigeria. In doing so, We used the scenario-based International Energy Agency models, the projected energy demand and supply structure of the country through 2030 are presented and analysed. Overall, this shows that in high renewable (solar) penetration scenarios in Nigeria, energy storage with 4-6h duration can obtain over 86% capacity rating with storage comprising about 24% of peak load capacity. Therefore, the general takeaway from the current study is that most power systems currently used has the potential to support fairly large penetrations of 4-6 hour storage as capacity resources prior to a substantial reduction in capacity ratings. The data presented in this paper is a crucial eye-opener for relevant government agencies towards developing these energy resources in tackling the present energy crisis in Nigeria. However, if the transformation of the Nigeria. power system continues primarily through expansion of renewable generation, then longer duration energy storage will be needed to qualify as capacity resources. Hence, the analytical task from the current survey will help to determine whether and when long-duration storage becomes an integral component of the capacity mix that is expected in Nigeria by 2030.

Keywords: capacity, energy, power system, storage

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Authors: Davi Marinho de Araujo Falcão, Ronaldo Moreira Salles, Paulo Henrique Maranhão

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Disruption Tolerant Networks (DTN) are an evolution of Mobile Adhoc Networks (MANET) and work good in scenarioswhere nodes are sparsely distributed, with low density, intermittent connections and an end-to-end infrastructure is not possible to guarantee. Therefore, DTNs are recommended for high latency applications that can last from hours to days. The maritime scenario has mobility characteristics that contribute to a DTN network approach, but the concern with data security is also a relevant aspect in such scenarios. Continuing the previous work, which evaluated the performance of some DTN protocols (Epidemic, Spray and Wait, and Direct Delivery) in three warship scenarios and proposed the application of discriminant analysis, as a classification technique for secure connections, in the Epidemic protocol, thus, the current article proposes a new analysis of the directional discriminant function with opening angles smaller than 90 degrees, demonstrating that the increase in directivity influences the selection of a greater number of secure connections by the directional discriminant Epidemic protocol.

Keywords: DTN, discriminant function, epidemic protocol, security, tactical messages, warship scenario

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Authors: Jade V. Rushby, Tony Loughland, Tracy L. Durksen, Hoa Nguyen, Robert M. Klassen

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This paper reports a study investigating the development and implementation of an online multi-session ‘scenario-based learning’ (SBL) program administered to preservice teachers in Australia. The transition from initial teacher education to the teaching profession can present numerous cognitive and psychological challenges for early career teachers. Therefore, the identification of additional supports, such as scenario-based learning, that can supplement existing teacher education programs may help preservice teachers to feel more confident and prepared for the realities and complexities of teaching. Scenario-based learning is grounded in situated learning theory which holds that learning is most powerful when it is embedded within its authentic context. SBL exposes participants to complex and realistic workplace situations in a supportive environment and has been used extensively to help prepare students in other professions, such as legal and medical education. However, comparatively limited attention has been paid to investigating the effects of SBL in teacher education. In the present study, the SBL intervention provided participants with the opportunity to virtually engage with school-based scenarios, reflect on how they might respond to a series of plausible response options, and receive real-time feedback from experienced educators. The development process involved several stages, including collaboration with experienced educators to determine the scenario content based on ‘critical incidents’ they had encountered during their teaching careers, the establishment of the scoring key, the development of the expert feedback, and an extensive review process to refine the program content. The 4-part SBL program focused on areas that can be challenging in the beginning stages of a teaching career, including managing student behaviour and workload, differentiating the curriculum, and building relationships with colleagues, parents, and the community. Results from prior studies implemented by the research group using a similar 4-part format have shown a statistically significant increase in preservice teachers’ self-efficacy and classroom readiness from the pre-test to the final post-test. In the current research, professional teaching identity - incorporating self-efficacy, motivation, self-image, satisfaction, and commitment to teaching - was measured over six weeks at multiple time points: before, during, and after the 4-part scenario-based learning program. Analyses included latent growth curve modelling to assess the trajectory of change in the outcome variables throughout the intervention. The paper outlines (1) the theoretical underpinnings of SBL, (2) the development of the SBL program and methodology, and (3) the results from the study, including the impact of the SBL program on aspects of participating preservice teachers’ professional identity. The study shows how SBL interventions can be implemented alongside the initial teacher education curriculum to help prepare preservice teachers for the transition from student to teacher.

Keywords: classroom simulations, e-learning, initial teacher education, preservice teachers, professional learning, professional teaching identity, scenario-based learning, teacher development

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Authors: Geir Kirkebøen

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Most patients with serious diagnoses want to know their prognosis, in particular their expected survival time. As part of the informed consent process, physicians are legally obligated to communicate such information to patients. However, there is no established (evidence based) ‘best practice’ for how to do this. The two questions explored in this study are: How do physicians communicate expected survival time to patients, and how should it be done? We explored the first, descriptive question in a study with Norwegian oncologists as participants. The study had a scenario and a survey part. In the scenario part, the doctors should imagine that a patient, recently diagnosed with a serious cancer diagnosis, has asked them: ‘How long can I expect to live with such a diagnosis? I want an honest answer from you!’ The doctors should assume that the diagnosis is certain, and that from an extensive recent study they had optimal statistical knowledge, described in detail as a right-skewed survival curve, about how long such patients with this kind of diagnosis could be expected to live. The main finding was that very few of the oncologists would explain to the patient the variation in survival time as described by the survival curve. The majority would not give the patient an answer at all. Of those who gave an answer, the typical answer was that survival time varies a lot, that it is hard to say in a specific case, that we will come back to it later etc. The survey part of the study clearly indicates that the main reason why the oncologists would not deliver the mortality prognosis was discomfort with its uncertainty. The scenario part of the study confirmed this finding. The majority of the oncologists explicitly used the uncertainty, the variation in survival time, as a reason to not give the patient an answer. Many studies show that patients want realistic information about their mortality prognosis, and that they should be given hope. The question then is how to communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis in a realistic and optimistic – hopeful – way. Based on psychological research, our hypothesis is that the best way to do this is by explicitly describing the variation in survival time, the (usually) right skewed survival curve of the prognosis, and emphasize to the patient the (small) possibility of being a ‘lucky outlier’. We tested this hypothesis in two scenario studies with lay people as participants. The data clearly show that people prefer to receive expected survival time as a median value together with explicit information about the survival curve’s right skewedness (e.g., concrete examples of ‘positive outliers’), and that communicating expected survival time this way not only provides people with hope, but also gives them a more realistic understanding compared with the typical way expected survival time is communicated. Our data indicate that it is not the existence of the uncertainty regarding the mortality prognosis that is the problem for patients, but how this uncertainty is, or is not, communicated and explained.

Keywords: cancer patients, decision psychology, doctor-patient communication, mortality prognosis

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Authors: Niloofar Mobasem, Kambiz Heidarzadeh Hanzaee

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Purpose: The study aimed to measure the customer satisfaction with service recovery through the conflict management framework, especially assessing the role of pre-existing attitudes for measuring the customer response to the service failure. Design/ methodology/ approach: The study is based on the experimental research method. The factorial designs are used in the research that measures the variables in two separate studies. In the first study, the factorial design is 3 conflict management style: cooperative, competitive, avoiding; - 3 service performance: exceed expectation, meet expectation, fail to meet expectation; and in the second study includes: - 3 conflict management style: cooperative, competitive, avoiding; - 2 service performance: exceed expectation, fail to meet expectation; - 2 pre-existing attitude: positive, negative. Finding: The results of study based on a scenario indicate that the conflict management style affected on customer satisfaction by service recovery efforts as well as the pre-existing attitudes affected the customer interpretation for service providers (conflict management style) and those who have positive pre-existing attitudes are interested to response to the cooperative approach in dealing with service failure. Research limitation/ implication: According to all researches, the study has several limitations. The nature of scenario in this study may cause to hit the reality of life. Although, the similar scenario approaches commonly are used for such researches, but the approaches are not without criticism. Practical implications: Given the importance of service recovery, companies can understand the importance of creating customer satisfaction achieved by the positive results due to the service recovery during the shortness or service failure by the mentioned companies. Originality/ value: The study highlights the importance of service failure and providing the education in relation to the service recovery.

Keywords: service recovery, pre-existing attitude, service failure, customer satisfaction

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Authors: Modupe O. Jimoh

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During manhole overflows, its contents pollute the immediate environment. Understanding the pollutant transfer characteristics between manhole’s incoming sewer and the overflow is therefore of great importance. A square manhole with sides 388 mm by 388 mm and height 700 mm with an overflow facility was used in the laboratory to carry out overflow concentration measurements. Two scenarios were investigated using three flow rates. The first scenario corresponded to when the exit of the pipe becomes blocked and the only exit for the flow is the manhole. The second scenario is when there is an overflow in combination with a pipe exit. The temporal concentration measurements showed that the peak concentration of pollutants in the flow was attenuated between the inlet and the overflow. A deconvolution software was used to predict the Residence time distribution (RTD) and consequently the Cumulative Residence time distribution (CRTD). The CRTDs suggest that complete mixing is occurring between the pipe inlet and the overflow, like what is obtained in a low surcharged manhole. The results also suggest that an instantaneous stirred tank reactor model can describe the mixing characteristics.

Keywords: CRTDs, instantaneous stirred tank reactor model, overflow, square manholes, surcharge, temporal concentration profiles

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Authors: Karen Armstrong

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This study is a narrative inquiry into the use of simulated person methodology (SPM) in teacher education classes. This methodology -often used in medical schools- has tremendous benefits in terms of enhancing experiential education in teacher education classes. Literacy education is a major focus in elementary schools. New teachers must work with parents to ensure that children learn to read and expand their literacy horizons. The classes used in this narrative inquiry research consist of one graduate class on family literacy and two pre-service teacher education classes: literacy and culture and early and family literacy. Two scenarios were devised, both of which simulated a parent-teacher interview. In the first scenario, the parent is a reluctant father who is ashamed of his lack of reading ability and does not understand why literacy is important. His seven-year-old son, wanting to emulate his father, has suddenly transformed from an eager student to one who rejects the value of reading in loyalty to his father who cannot read. In the second scenario, a father is called in by the teacher because his son has started acting out in class. The mother in this scenario is temporarily absent from the home, and the father is now the sole caregiver. In each of the scenarios, students are the teachers who are problem-solving these dilemmas in a safe environment with the 'parent' who is a specially trained simulated person. Teacher candidates enact, with the trained simulated person, their strategies for encouraging parents to engage in the literacy development of their children. Teacher candidates attempt to offer support and encouragement to parents. This simulation strategy offers both beginning and more experienced teachers the opportunity to practice an interview with two distinct and contrasting family situations with regard to the literacy of young children. The paper discusses the details of the scenarios enacted in class and the reflective discussion through which students learn from the simulation.

Keywords: experiential education, literacy, simulated person methodology, teacher education

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Authors: B. Unnikrishnan, Tanuj Kanchan, Ramesh Holla, Nithin Kumar

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Euthanasia has been debated for the ethical, legal, social, and religious implications associated with it. The present research was conducted to study the perceptions of doctors and nurses about ethical and legal aspects of Euthanasia in Indian scenario. The study was carried out at three tertiary care hospitals of Kasturba Medical College (KMC), Mangalore, India. Practicing doctors and nurses working in the hospitals associated with KMC were included in the study after taking written informed consent from the participants. The data was analyzed using SPSS version 11.5. Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the responses of doctors and nurses. P-value of <0.05 was taken as statistically significant. A total of 144 doctors and nurses participated in the study. Both doctors and nurses agreed that if a terminally ill patient wishes to die, the wish cannot be honored ethically and legally. A significantly larger number of nurses agreed that patient’s wish for euthanasia cannot be honored ethically and legally when compared to the doctors. Though the doctors and nurses were broadly in agreement with the existing legal and ethical views on the issue, their knowledge on the issue with regard to the legal status of euthanasia in India and ethical aspects relating to it needs to be strengthened.

Keywords: euthanasia, ethical aspects, legal aspects, India

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Authors: Óscar Muñoz Garrigós, José Manuel Bernabeu Aubán

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Time-sensitive services are the base of the cloud services industry. Keeping low service saturation is essential for controlling response time. All auto-scalable services make use of reactive auto-scaling. However, reactive auto-scaling has few in-depth studies. This presentation shows a model for reactive auto-scaling methodologies with a MAPE-k architecture. Queuing theory can compute different properties of static services but lacks some parameters related to the transition between models. Our model uses queuing theory parameters to relate the transition between models. It associates MAPE-k related times, the sampling frequency, the cooldown period, the number of requests that an instance can handle per unit of time, the number of incoming requests at a time instant, and a function that describes the acceleration in the service's ability to handle more requests. This model is later used as a solution to horizontally auto-scale time-sensitive services composed of microservices, reevaluating the model’s parameters periodically to allocate resources. The solution requires limiting the acceleration of the growth in the number of incoming requests to keep a constrained response time. Business benefits determine such limits. The solution can add a dynamic number of instances and remains valid under different system sizes. The study includes performance recommendations to improve results according to the incoming load shape and business benefits. The exposed methodology is tested in a simulation. The simulator contains a load generator and a service composed of two microservices, where the frontend microservice depends on a backend microservice with a 1:1 request relation ratio. A common request takes 2.3 seconds to be computed by the service and is discarded if it takes more than 7 seconds. Both microservices contain a load balancer that assigns requests to the less loaded instance and preemptively discards requests if they are not finished in time to prevent resource saturation. When load decreases, instances with lower load are kept in the backlog where no more requests are assigned. If the load grows and an instance in the backlog is required, it returns to the running state, but if it finishes the computation of all requests and is no longer required, it is permanently deallocated. A few load patterns are required to represent the worst-case scenario for reactive systems: the following scenarios test response times, resource consumption and business costs. The first scenario is a burst-load scenario. All methodologies will discard requests if the rapidness of the burst is high enough. This scenario focuses on the number of discarded requests and the variance of the response time. The second scenario contains sudden load drops followed by bursts to observe how the methodology behaves when releasing resources that are lately required. The third scenario contains diverse growth accelerations in the number of incoming requests to observe how approaches that add a different number of instances can handle the load with less business cost. The exposed methodology is compared against a multiple threshold CPU methodology allocating/deallocating 10 or 20 instances, outperforming the competitor in all studied metrics.

Keywords: reactive auto-scaling, auto-scaling, microservices, cloud computing

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Authors: Shih-Ming Wang, Chun-Kai Yeh, Ming-Hwang Shie, Tai-Wei Lin, Chieh-Fu Chang

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This paper introduces a FPGA-based baseband signals generator (BSG) of X-band transmitter developed by National Space Organization (NSPO), Taiwan, for earth observation. In order to gain more flexibility for various applications, a number of modulation schemes, QPSK, DeQPSK and 8PSK 4D-TCM are included. For micro satellite scenario, the maximum symbol rate is up to 150Mbsps, and the EVM is as low as 1.9%. For CubeSat scenario, the maximum symbol rate is up to 60Mbsps, and the EVM is less than 1.7%. The maximum data rates are 412.5Mbps and 165Mbps, respectively. Besides, triple modular redundancy (TMR) scheme is implemented in order to reduce single event effect (SEE) induced by radiation. Finally, the theoretical error performance is provided based on comprehensive analysis, especially when BER is lower and much lower than 10⁻⁶ due to low error bit requirement of modern high-resolution earth remote-sensing instruments.

Keywords: X-band transmitter, FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array), CubeSat, micro satellite

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Authors: Shruti Chopra, Vikas Rao Vadi

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In the era of the digital world, the Internet of Things (IoT) has been receiving significant attention. Its ubiquitous connectivity between humans, machines to machines (M2M) and machines to humans provides it a potential to transform the society and establish an ecosystem to serve new dimensions to the economy of the country. Thereby, this study has attempted to identify the challenges that seem prevalent in IoT adoption in India through the literature survey. Further, the data has been collected by taking the opinions of experts to conduct the foresight analysis and it has been analyzed with the help of scenario planning process – Micmac, Mactor, Multipol, and Smic-Prob. As a methodology, the study has identified the relationship between variables through variable analysis using Micmac and actor analysis using Mactor, this paper has attempted to generate the entire field of possibilities in terms of hypotheses and construct various scenarios through Multipol. And lastly, the findings of the study include final scenarios that are selected using Smic-Prob by assigning the probability to all the scenarios (including the conditional probability). This study may help the practitioners and policymakers to remove the obstacles to successfully implement the IoT in India.

Keywords: Internet of Thing (IoT), foresight analysis, scenario planning, challenges, policymaking

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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The objective of this work is to evaluate the results of solar radiation projections between 2006 and 2013 for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The projections are provided by the General Circulation Models (MCGs) belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). In all, the results of the simulation of six models are evaluated, compared to monthly data, measured by a network of thirteen meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Institute (INMET). The performance of the models is evaluated by the Nash coefficient and the Bias. The results are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatialization maps. The ACCESS1-0 RCP 4.5 model presented the best results for the solar radiation simulations, for the most optimistic scenario, in much of the state. The efficiency coefficients (CEF) were between 0.95 and 0.98. In the most pessimistic scenario, HADGen2-AO RCP 8.5 had the best accuracy among the analyzed models, presenting coefficients of efficiency between 0.94 and 0.98. From this validation, solar radiation projection maps were elaborated, indicating a seasonal increase of this climatic variable in some regions of the Brazilian territory, mainly in the spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, validation

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: Yufeng Wu, Yifan Gu, Bin Li, Wei Wang

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Resource recycling process contains a subsystem with interactions of three dimensions including coupling allocation of primary and secondary resources, responsibility coordination of stakeholders in forward and reverse supply chains, and trans-boundary transfer of hidden resource and environmental responsibilities between regions. Overlap or lack of responsibilities is easy to appear at the intersection of the three management dimensions. It is urgent to make an overall design of the policy system for recycling resources. From theoretical perspective, this paper analyzes the unique external differences of resource and environment in various dimensions and explores the reason why the effects of trans-dimensional policies are strongly correlated. Taking the example of the copper resources contained in the waste electrical and electronic equipment, this paper constructs reduction effect accounting model of resources recycling and set four trans-dimensional policy scenarios including resources tax and environmental tax reform of the raw and secondary resources, application of extended producer responsibility system, promotion of clean development mechanism, and strict entry barriers of imported wastes. In these ways, the paper simulates the impact effect of resources recycling process on resource deduction and emission reduction of waste water and gas, and constructs trans-dimensional policy mix scenario through integrating dominant strategy. The results show that combined application of various dimensional policies can achieve incentive compatibility and the trans-dimensional policy mix scenario can reach a better effect. Compared with baseline scenario, this scenario will increase 91.06% copper resources reduction effect and improve emission reduction of waste water and gas by eight times from 2010 to 2030. This paper further analyzes the development orientation of policies in various dimension. In resource dimension, the combined application of compulsory, market and authentication methods should be promoted to improve the use ratio of secondary resources. In supply chain dimension, resource value, residual functional value and potential information value contained in waste products should be fully excavated to construct a circular business system. In regional dimension, it should give full play to the comparative advantages of manufacturing power to improve China’s voice in resource recycling in the world.

Keywords: resource recycling, trans-dimension, policy design, incentive compatibility, life cycle

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Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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Earthquake is known as one of the most frequent natural hazards in Iran. Therefore, policy making to improve the strengthening of structures is one of the requirements of the approach to prevent and reduce the risk of the destructive effects of earthquakes. In order to choose the optimal policy in the face of earthquakes, this article tries to examine the cost of financial damages caused by earthquakes in the building sector and compare it with the costs of retrofitting. In this study, the results of adopting the scenario of "action after the earthquake" and the policy scenario of "strengthening structures before the earthquake" have been collected, calculated and finally analyzed by putting them together. Methodologically, data received from governorates and building retrofitting engineering companies have been used. The scope of the study is earthquakes occurred in the geographical area of Iran, and among them, eight earthquakes have been specifically studied: Miane, Ahar and Haris, Qator, Momor, Khorasan, Damghan and Shahroud, Gohran, Hormozgan and Ezgole. The main basis of the calculations is the data obtained from retrofitting companies regarding the cost per square meter of building retrofitting and the data of the governorate regarding the power of earthquake destruction, the realized costs for the reconstruction and construction of residential units. The estimated costs have been converted to the value of 2021 using the time value of money method to enable comparison and aggregation. The cost-benefit comparison of the two policies of action after the earthquake and retrofitting before the earthquake in the eight earthquakes investigated shows that the country has suffered five thousand billion Tomans of losses due to the lack of retrofitting of buildings against earthquakes. Based on the data of the Budget Law's of Iran, this figure was approximately twice the budget of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development and five times the budget of the Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation in 2021. The results show that the policy of retrofitting structures before an earthquake is significantly more optimal than the competing scenario. The comparison of the two policy scenarios examined in this study shows that the policy of retrofitting buildings before an earthquake, on the one hand, prevents huge losses, and on the other hand, by increasing the number of earthquake-resistant houses, it reduces the amount of earthquake destruction. In addition to other positive effects of retrofitting, such as the reduction of mortality due to earthquake resistance of buildings and the reduction of other economic and social effects caused by earthquakes. These are things that can prove the cost-effectiveness of the policy scenario of "strengthening structures before earthquakes" in Iran.

Keywords: disaster economy, earthquake economy, cost-benefit analysis, resilience

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Authors: B. Sudhakara Reddy

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In modern economy, energy is fundamental to virtually every product and service in use. It has been developed on the dependence of abundant and easy-to-transform polluting fossil fuels. On one hand, increase in population and income levels combined with increased per capita energy consumption requires energy production to keep pace with economic growth, and on the other, the impact of fossil fuel use on environmental degradation is enormous. The conflicting policy objectives of protecting the environment while increasing economic growth and employment has resulted in this paradox. Hence, it is important to decouple economic growth from environmental degeneration. Hence, the search for green energy involving affordable, low-carbon, and renewable energies has become global priority. This paper explores a transition to a sustainable energy system using the socio-economic-technical scenario method. This approach takes into account the multifaceted nature of transitions which not only require the development and use of new technologies, but also of changes in user behaviour, policy and regulation. The scenarios that are developed are: baseline business as usual (BAU) as well as green energy (GE). The baseline scenario assumes that the current trends (energy use, efficiency levels, etc.) will continue in future. India’s population is projected to grow by 23% during 2010 –2030, reaching 1.47 billion. The real GDP, as per the model, is projected to grow by 6.5% per year on average between 2010 and 2030 reaching US$5.1 trillion or $3,586 per capita (base year 2010). Due to increase in population and GDP, the primary energy demand will double in two decades reaching 1,397 MTOE in 2030 with the share of fossil fuels remaining around 80%. The increase in energy use corresponds to an increase in energy intensity (TOE/US $ of GDP) from 0.019 to 0.036. The carbon emissions are projected to increase by 2.5 times from 2010 reaching 3,440 million tonnes with per capita emissions of 2.2 tons/annum. However, the carbon intensity (tons per US$ of GDP) decreases from 0.96 to 0.67. As per GE scenario, energy use will reach 1079 MTOE by 2030, a saving of about 30% over BAU. The penetration rate of renewable energy resources will reduce the total primary energy demand by 23% under GE. The reduction in fossil fuel demand and focus on clean energy will reduce the energy intensity to 0.21 (TOE/US$ of GDP) and carbon intensity to 0.42 (ton/US$ of GDP) under the GE scenario. The study develops new ‘pathways out of poverty’ by creating more than 10 million jobs and thus raise the standard of living of low-income people. Our scenarios are, to a great extent, based on the existing technologies. The challenges to this path lie in socio-economic-political domains. However, to attain a green economy the appropriate policy package should be in place which will be critical in determining the kind of investments that will be needed and the incidence of costs and benefits. These results provide a basis for policy discussions on investments, policies and incentives to be put in place by national and local governments.

Keywords: energy, renewables, green technology, scenario

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Authors: Mahboobeh Hemmati, Tahar Messadi, Hongmei Gu

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This overall research is targeted at the assessment of the new CLT-built Adohi Hall residential building located on the campus of the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The purpose of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study is to analyze the environmental impacts resulting from the transportation route of the Austrian imported CLT to the construction site with those of the CLT assumed to be originating from Conway, Arkansas. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CLT from Europe (Styria-Graz in Austria) to the site was first investigated. The results were then compared with the GWP of the CLT produced in Conway, Arkansas. The impacts of each scenario, using the Ecoinvent database, are then calculated and compared against each other to find the most environmentally efficient scenario in terms of global warming impacts. The quantification of GWP is associated with different transportation systems, water, road, and rail. Obtained through comparison, the findings reveal that the use of local materials is more efficient. In addition, transportation by water produces less Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission in comparison to freight transportation by rail and road. Thus, besides the travel distance, the utilized transportation system is still a significant factor and should be seriously considered in making decisions for moving materials.

Keywords: comparative analysis, GWP, LCA, transportation

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Authors: Michael Mertel, Lars Friedrich, Kai-Ingo Voigt

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Based on principle-agent theory, an information asymmetry exists in the traditional donation process. Consumers cannot comprehend whether nonprofit organizations (NPOs) use raised funds according to the designated cause after the transaction took place (hidden action). Therefore, charity organizations have tried to appear transparent and gain trust by using the same marketing instruments for decades (e.g., releasing project success reports). However, none of these measures can guarantee consumers that charities will use their donations for the purpose. With awareness of misuse of donations rising due to the Ukraine conflict (e.g., funding crime), consumers are increasingly concerned about the destination of their charitable purposes. Therefore, innovative charities like the Human Rights Foundation have started to offer donations via blockchain. Blockchain technology has the potential to establish profound trust and transparency in the donation process: Consumers can publicly track the progress of their donation at any time after deciding to donate. This ensures that the charity is not using donations against its original intent. Hence, the aim is to investigate the effect of blockchain-enabled transactions on the willingness to donate. Sample and Design: To investigate consumers' behavior, we use a scenario-based experiment. After removing participants (e.g., due to failed attention checks), 3192 potential donors participated (47.9% female, 62.4% bachelor or above). Procedure: We randomly assigned the participants to one of two scenarios. In all conditions, the participants read a scenario about a fictive charity organization called "Helper NPO." Afterward, the participants answered questions regarding their perception of the charity. Manipulation: The first scenario (n = 1405) represents a typical donation process, where consumers donate money without any option to track and trace. The second scenario (n = 1787) represents a donation process via blockchain, where consumers can track and trace their donations respectively. Using t-statistics, the findings demonstrate a positive effect of donating via blockchain on participants’ willingness to donate (mean difference = 0.667, p < .001, Cohen’s d effect size = 0.482). A mediation analysis shows significant effects for the mediation of transparency (Estimate = 0.199, p < .001), trust (Estimate = 0.144, p < .001), and transparency and trust (Estimate = 0.158, p < .001). The total effect of blockchain usage on participants’ willingness to donate (Estimate = 0.690, p < .001) consists of the direct effect (Estimate = 0.189, p < .001) and the indirect effects of transparency and trust (Estimate = 0.501, p < .001). Furthermore, consumers' affinity for technology moderates the direct effect of blockchain usage on participants' willingness to donate (Estimate = 0.150, p < .001). Donating via blockchain is a promising way for charities to engage consumers for several reasons: (1) Charities can emphasize trust and transparency in their advertising campaigns. (2) Established charities can target new customer segments by specifically engaging technology-affine consumers in the future. (3) Charities can raise international funds without previous barriers (e.g., setting up bank accounts). Nevertheless, increased transparency can also backfire (e.g., disclosure of costs). Such cases require further research.

Keywords: blockchain, social sector, transparency, trust

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