Search results for: tail value at risk

Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Maria J. Alves, Sofia Cunha

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Vector-borne diseases are transmitted to humans by mosquitos, sandflies, bugs, ticks, and other vectors. Some are re-transmitted between vectors, if the infected human has a new contact when his levels of infection are high. The vector is infected for lifetime and can transmit infectious diseases not only between humans but also from animals to humans. Some vector borne diseases are very disabling and globally account for more than one million deaths worldwide. The mosquitoes from the complex Culex pipiens sl. are the most abundant in Portugal, and we dispose in this moment of a data set from the surveillance program that has been carried on since 2006 across the country. All mosquitos’ species are included, but the large coverage of Culex pipiens sl. and its importance for public health make this vector an interesting candidate to assess risk of disease amplification. This work focus on ports and airports identified as key areas of high density of vectors. Mosquitoes being ectothermic organisms, the main factor for vector survival and pathogen development is temperature. Minima and maxima local air temperatures for each area of interest are averaged by month from data gathered on a daily basis at the national network of meteorological stations, and interpolated in a geographic information system (GIS). The range of temperatures ideal for several pathogens are known and this work shows how to use it with the meteorological data in each port and airport facility, to focus an efficient implementation of countermeasures and reduce simultaneously risk transmission and mitigation costs. The results show an increased alert with decreasing latitude, which corresponds to higher minimum and maximum temperatures and a lower amplitude range of the daily temperature.

Keywords: human health, risk assessment, risk management, vector-borne diseases

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Authors: Maria Reichenber Arcilla

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Objective: To determine the risk factors for maternal and neonatal complications associated with operative vaginal deliveries. Methods: A retrospective chart review of 435 patients who underwent operative vaginal deliveries was done. Patient profiles – age, parity, AOG, duration of labor – and outcomes – birthweight, maternal and neonatal complications - were tabulated and multivariable analysis and logistic regression were performed using SPSS® Statistics Base. Results and Conclusion: There was no significant difference in the incidence of maternal and neonatal complications between those that underwent vacuum and forceps extraction. Among the variables analysed, parity and duration of labor reached statistical significance. The odds of maternal complications were 3 times higher among nulliparous patients. Neonatal complications were seen in those whose labor lasted more than 9 hours.

Keywords: operative vaginal deliveries, maternal, neonatal, morbidity

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Authors: Getachew Demesa Bexa

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Building resilience to withstand extreme weather events through reduction and mitigation measures towards predicted disasters with appropriate contingency plans complemented by timely and effective emergency response demands committed and integrated/coordinated efforts. The 2006 flood disaster that claimed more than 200 people in Dire Dawa town shifted the paradigm from reactive to proactive engagement among government, NGOs and communities to contain future disasters through resilience building. Dire Dawa CMDRR Association is a model community organization that demonstrated the basic minimum and turning adversity into opportunity by mobilizing vulnerable community members. Meanwhile the birth of African Centre for Disaster Risk Management is a milestone in changing the image of the country and beyond in resilience building while linking relief and development.

Keywords: Dire Dawa, disaster, resilience, risk management

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Authors: Muhammad Yasir Tarar

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Background: Intraarticular steroid injections are an effective option in alleviating the symptoms of conditions like osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, crystal arthropathy, and rotator cuff tendinopathy. Most of these injections are conducted in the elderly who are on polypharmacy, including anticoagulants at times. Up to 6% of patients aged 80-84 years have been reported to be taking Warfarin. The literature availability on safety quotient for patients undergoing intraarticular injections on Warfarin is scarce. It has remained debatable over the years which approach is safe for these patients. Continuing warfarin has a theoretical bleeding risk, and stopping it can lead to even severe life-threatening thromboembolic events in high-risk patients. Objectives: To evaluate the risk of bleeding complications in patients on warfarin undergoing intraarticular injections or arthrocentesis. Study Design & Methods: A literature search of MEDLINE (1946 to present), EMBASE (1974 to present), and Cochrane CENTRAL (1988 to present) databases were conducted using any combination of the keywords, Injection, Knee, Shoulder, Joint, Intraarticular, arthrocentesis, Warfarin, and Anticoagulation in November 2020 for articles published in any language with no publication year limit. The study inclusion criteria included reporting on the rate of bleeding complications following injection of the knee or shoulder in patients on warfarin treatment. Randomized control trials and prospective and retrospective study designs were included. An electronic standardized Performa for data extraction was made. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) the methodology was used. The articles were appraised using the methodological index for nonrandomized studies. The Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool used to assess the risk of bias in included RCTs and the MINORS tool for assessment of bias in observational studies. Results: The search of databases resulted in a total of 852 articles. Relevant articles as per the inclusion criteria were shortlisted, 7 articles deemed suitable to be include. A total of 1033 joints sample size was undertaken with specified knee and shoulder joints of a total of 820. Only 6 joints had bleeding complications, 5 early bleeding at the time of injection or aspiration, and one late bleeding complication with INR of 5, additionally, 2 patients complained of bruising, 3 of pain, and 1 managed for infection. Conclusions: The results of the metanalysis show that it is relatively safe to perform intraarticular injections in patients on Warfarin regardless of the INR range.

Keywords: arthrocentesis, warfarin, bleeding, injection

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Authors: Galawezh Obaid Othman

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The present investigation was undertaken to evaluate the germ cell toxicity induced by ciprofloxacin antibiotic and the Protective effect of grape seed oil, Ciproflaxin uses include treatment of genitor-urinary and some reproductive tract bacterial infections. One of the most attractive approaches to disease prevention involves the use of natural antioxidants to protect tissue against toxic injury, the possible protective effect of grape seed oil, against ciprofloxacin induced reproductive toxicity on mouse .the animals were randomly divided into four groups consisting of five mice. Group (1) was orally given distilled water (solvent of the used drugs) and kept as a control. Group (2) was administered 6ml/kg. b.w of grape seed oil orally 15 days .Group (3) was administered 206mg/kg. b.w of ciprofloxacin orally for 15 days.. Last group was treated orally with Grape seed oil (6mg/kg b.w. /day) prior to an orally administered ciprofloxacin (CPX) at a dose of 206 mg⁄kg. b.w. by three hours for fifteen days. Ciproflaxin have ability to induce various types of sperm abnormalities such as (Sperm without head, sperm without tail, defective head spearm,swollen head sperm ), The results explored that Grape seed oil possesses statistically significant (p<0.05) protective potential against Ciproflaxin by decreasing sperm abnormalities frequency in mouse.

Keywords: antimutagen, ciprofloxacin, grape seed oil, germ cell

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Authors: Renate Gericke, Carol Long

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Despite the robust empirical support of attachment, advancement in the description and conceptualization of attachment has been slow and has not significantly advanced beyond the identification of attachment security or type (namely, secure, avoidant, ambivalent and disorganized). This has continued despite papers arguing for theoretical refinement in the classification of attachment presentations. For thinking and practice to advance, it is critically important that these categories and their assessment be interrogated in different contexts and across developmental age. To achieve this, a quantitative design was used with descriptive and inferential statistics, and general linear models were employed to analyze the data. The Attachment Story Completion Test (ASCT) was administered to 105 children between the ages of eight and twelve from socio-economically deprived contexts with high exposure to trauma. A staggering 93% of the children had insecure attachments (specifically, avoidant 37%, disorganized 34% and ambivalent 22%) and attachment was more complex than currently conceptualized in the attachment literature. Primary attachment did not only present as one of four discreet categories, but 70% of the sample had a complex attachment with more than one type of maternal attachment style. Attachment intensity also varied along a continuum (between 1 and 5). The findings have implications for a) research that has not considered the potential complexity of attachment or attachment intensity, b) policy to more actively support mother-infant dyads, particularly in high-risk contexts and c) question the applicability of a western conceptualization of a primary maternal attachment figure in non-western collectivist societies.

Keywords: attachment, children at risk, middle childhood, non-western context

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Authors: Abdel-Monem Sayed Mohamed

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Egypt rapidly growing development is accompanied by increasing levels of standard living particular in its urban areas. However, there is a limited experience in quantifying the sources of risk management in Egypt and in designing efficient strategies to keep away serious impacts of earthquakes. From the historical point of view and recent instrumental records, there are some seismo-active regions in Egypt, where some significant earthquakes had occurred in different places. The special tectonic features in Egypt: Aswan, Greater Cairo, Red Sea and Sinai Peninsula regions are the territories of a high seismic risk, which have to be monitored by up-to date technologies. The investigations of the seismic events and interpretations led to evaluate the seismic hazard for disaster prevention and for the safety of the dense populated regions and the vital national projects as the High Dam. In addition to the monitoring of the recent crustal movements, the most powerful technique of satellite geodesy GPS are used where geodetic networks are covering such seismo-active regions. The results from the data sets are compared and combined in order to determine the main characteristics of the deformation and hazard estimation for specified regions. The final compiled output from the seismological and geodetic analysis threw lights upon the geodynamical regime of these seismo-active regions and put Aswan and Greater Cairo under the lowest class according to horizontal crustal strains classifications. This work will serve a basis for the development of so-called catastrophic models and can be further used for catastrophic risk management. Also, this work is trying to evaluate risk of large catastrophic losses within the important regions including the High Dam, strategic buildings and archeological sites. Studies on possible scenarios of earthquakes and losses are a critical issue for decision making in insurance as a part of mitigation measures.

Keywords: b-value, Gumbel distribution, seismic and GPS data, strain parameters

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Authors: Gil Soriano, Aubreyrose Casilang

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Soil-transmitted helminth infection remains to be one of the leading public health problem worldwide, which is common in the rural developing regions especially among children. This study aimed to detect the presence of soil transmitted helminths among children and its associated transmission factors. Descriptive cross sectional research was the design used in the study and questionnaires were administered. Stool samples were collected among the samples (n=108) and were analyzed using kato thick method. Results showed that 61 out of 108 respondents are infected by soil transmitted helminth infection with A. lumbricoides the highest, followed by hookworm and T. trichuria. Parent's educational attainment, hand washing practices, and water sources were found to be associated with presence of Soil Transmitted Helminth infection.

Keywords: associated risk factors, barangay, school children, soil transmitted helminth infection

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Authors: Bill D. Geis

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Suicide wrongful death forensic cases are the fastest rising tort in mental health law. It is estimated that suicide-related cases have accounted for 15% of U.S. malpractice claims since 2006. Most suicide-related personal injury claims fall into the legal category of “wrongful death.” Though mental health experts may be called on to address a range of forensic questions in wrongful death cases, the central consultation that most experts provide is about the negligence element—specifically, the issue of whether the clinician met the clinical standard of care in assessing, treating, and managing the deceased person’s mental health care. Standards of care, varying from U.S. state to state, are broad and address what a reasonable clinician might do in a similar circumstance. This fact leaves the issue of the suicide standard of care, in each case, up to forensic experts to put forth a reasoned estimate of what the standard of care should have been in the specific case under litigation. Because the general state guidelines for standard of care are broad, forensic experts are readily retained to provide scientific and clinical opinions about whether or not a clinician met the standard of care in their suicide assessment, treatment, and management of the case. In the past and in much of current practice, the assessment of suicide has centered on the elicitation of verbalized suicide ideation. Research in recent years, however, has indicated that the majority of persons who end their lives do not say they are suicidal at their last medical or psychiatric contact. Near-term risk assessment—that goes beyond verbalized suicide ideation—is needed. Our previous research employed structural equation modeling to predict lethal suicide risk--eight negative thought patterns (feeling like a burden on others, hopelessness, self-hatred, etc.) mediated by nine transdiagnostic clinical factors (mental torment, insomnia, substance abuse, PTSD intrusions, etc.) were combined to predict acute lethal suicide risk. This structural equation model, the Lethal Suicide Risk Pattern (LSRP), Acute model, had excellent goodness-of-fit [χ2(df) = 94.25(47)***, CFI = .98, RMSEA = .05, .90CI = .03-.06, p(RMSEA = .05) = .63. AIC = 340.25, ***p < .001.]. A further SEQ analysis was completed for this paper, adding a measure of Acute Suicide Ideation to the previous SEQ. Acceptable prediction model fit was no longer achieved [χ2(df) = 3.571, CFI > .953, RMSEA = .075, .90% CI = .065-.085, AIC = 529.550].This finding suggests that, in this additional study, immediate verbalized suicide ideation information was unhelpful in the assessment of lethal risk. The LSRP and other dynamic, near-term risk models (such as the Acute Suicide Affective Disorder Model and the Suicide Crisis Syndrome Model)—going beyond elicited suicide ideation—need to be incorporated into current clinical suicide assessment training. Without this training, the standard of care for suicide assessment is out of sync with current research—an emerging dilemma for the forensic evaluation of suicide wrongful death cases.

Keywords: forensic evaluation, standard of care, suicide, suicide assessment, wrongful death

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Authors: Yusra Ibrahim

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Parental involvement in their children’s education and behavioral modification is important. This article provides a policy analysis that describes laws and public education regulations concerning justice-involved youth and youth at risk of delinquency in the United Arab Emirates. The article aims to clarify the UAE laws for parents and guardians regarding their involvement in addressing school violations and crimes committed by their children, particularly those with emotional and behavioral disorders, youths at risk for delinquency, and justice-involved youths. The article concludes with implications for parents, policymakers, and educators and suggests ways to improve services and support for these parents and their youth.

Keywords: justice-involved youth, parents, incarceration, incarcerated youth, United Arab Emirates.

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Authors: H. Yousefnia, S. Zolghadri, A. Golabi Dezfuli

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Tris (1,10-phenanthroline) lanthanum(III)] trithiocyanate is a new compound that has shown to stop DNA synthesis in CCRF-CEM and Ehrlich ascites cells leading to a cell cycle arrest in G0/G1. One other important property of the phenanthroline nucleus is its ability to act as a triplet-state photosensitizer especially in complexes with lanthanides. In Nowadays, the radiation dose assessment resource (RADAR) method is known as the most common method for absorbed dose calculation. 177Lu was produced by irradiation of a natural Lu2O3 target at a thermal neutron flux of approximately 4 × 1013 n/cm2•s. 177Lu-PL3 was prepared in the optimized condition. The radiochemical yield was checked by ITLC method. The biodistribution of the complex was investigated by intravenously injection to wild-type rats via their tail veins. In this study, the absorbed dose of 177Lu-PL3 to human organs was estimated by RADAR method. 177Lu was prepared with a specific activity of 2.6-3 GBq.mg-1 and radionuclide purity of 99.98 %. The 177Lu-PL3 complex can prepare with high radiochemical yield (> 99 %) at optimized conditions. The results show that liver and spleen have received the highest absorbed dose of 1.051 and 0.441 mSv/MBq, respectivley. The absorbed dose values for these two dose-limiting tissues suggest more biological studies special in tumor-bearing animals.

Keywords: internal dosimetry, Lutetium-177, radar, animals

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Authors: Levente Varga, Dávid Deritei, Mária Ercsey-Ravasz, Răzvan Florian, Zsolt I. Lázár, István Papp, Ferenc Járai-Szabó

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One of the major shortcomings of widely used scientometric indicators is that different disciplines cannot be compared with each other. The issue of cross-disciplinary normalization has been long discussed, but even the classification of publications into scientific domains poses problems. Structural properties of citation networks offer new possibilities, however, the large size and constant growth of these networks asks for precaution. Here we present a new tool that in order to perform cross-field normalization of scientometric indicators of individual publications relays on the structural properties of citation networks. Due to the large size of the networks, a systematic procedure for identifying scientific domains based on a local community detection algorithm is proposed. The algorithm is tested with different benchmark and real-world networks. Then, by the use of this algorithm, the mechanism of the scientometric indicator normalization process is shown for a few indicators like the citation number, P-index and a local version of the PageRank indicator. The fat-tail trend of the article indicator distribution enables us to successfully perform the indicator normalization process.

Keywords: citation networks, cross-field normalization, local cluster detection, scientometric indicators

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Authors: Ifeyinwa Victor-Uadiale, Georgina Pearson, Sophie Witter, D. Reidpath

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Introduction: Smoking, alcohol misuse, unhealthy diet, and physical inactivity are the primary drivers of noncommunicable diseases (NCD), including cardiovascular diseases, cancers, respiratory diseases, and diabetes, worldwide. Collectively, these diseases are the leading cause of all global deaths, most of which are premature, affecting people between 30 and 70 years. Empirical evidence suggests that these risk behaviors can be modified by community-based interventions (CBI). However, there is little insight into the mechanisms and contextual factors of successful community interventions that impact risk behaviours for chronic diseases. This study examined “Under what circumstances, for whom, and how, do community-based interventions modify smoking, alcohol use, unhealthy diet, and physical inactivity among adults”. Adopting the Capability (C), Opportunity (O), Motivation (M), Behavior (B) (COM-B) framework for behaviour change, it sought to: (1) identify the mechanisms through which CBIs could reduce tobacco use and alcohol consumption and increase physical activity and the consumption of healthy diets and (2) examine the contextual factors that trigger the impact of these mechanisms on these risk behaviours among adults. Methods: Pawson’s realist review method was used to examine the literature. Empirical evidence and theoretical understanding were combined to develop a realist program theory that explains how CBIs influence NCD risk behaviours. Documents published between 2002 and 2020 were systematically searched in five electronic databases (CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Medline, ProQuest Central, and PsycINFO). They were included if they reported on community-based interventions aimed at cardiovascular diseases, cancers, respiratory diseases, and diabetes in a global context; and had an outcome targeted at smoking, alcohol, physical activity, and diet. Findings: Twenty-nine scientific documents were retrieved and included in the review. Over half of them (n = 18; 62%) focused on three of the four risk behaviours investigated in this review. The review identified four mechanisms: capability, opportunity, motivation, and social support that are likely to change the dietary and physical activity behaviours in adults given certain contexts. There were weak explanations of how the identified mechanisms could likely change smoking and alcohol consumption habits. In addition, eight contextual factors that may affect how these mechanisms impact physical activity and dietary behaviours were identified: suitability to work and family obligations, risk status awareness, socioeconomic status, literacy level, perceived need, availability and access to resources, culture, and group format. Conclusion: The findings suggest that CBIs are likely to improve the physical activity and dietary habits of adults if the intervention function seeks to educate, incentivize, change the environment, and model the right behaviours. The review applies and advances theory, realist research, and the design and implementation of community-based interventions for NCD prevention.

Keywords: community-based interventions, noncommunicable disease, realist program theory, risk behaviors

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Authors: Benedicta N. Nkeh-Chungag, Constance R. Sewani-Rusike, Isaac M. Malema, Daniel T. Goon, Oladele V. Adeniyi, Idowu A. Ajayi

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Background: Childhood and adolescent obesity is an important predictor of adult cardiometabolic diseases. Current data on age- and gender-specific cardiometabolic risk factors are lacking in the peri-urban Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. However, such information is important in designing innovative strategies to promote healthy living among children and adolescents. The purpose of this pilot study was to compare and determine the extent of cardiometabolic risk factors between samples of lean and overweight/obese adolescent population in a peri-urban township of South Africa. Methods: In this case-control study, age-matched, non-pregnant and non-lactating female adolescents consisting of equal number of cases (50 overweight/obese) and control (50 lean) participated in the study. Fasting venous blood samples were obtained for total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglyceride (Trig), highly sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and blood sugar. Anthropometric measurements included weight, height, waist and hip circumferences. Body mass index was calculated. Blood pressure was measured; and metabolic syndrome was assessed using appropriate diagnostic criteria for children and adolescents. Results: Of the 76 participants with complete data, 12/38 of the overweight/obese and 1/38 of the lean group met the criteria for adolescent metabolic syndrome. All cardiometabolic risk factors were elevated in the overweight/obese group compared with the lean group: low HDL-C (RR = 2.21), elevated TC (RR = 1.23), elevated LDL-C (RR = 1.42), elevated Trig (RR = 1.73), and elevated hsCRP (RR = 1.9). There were significant atherosclerotic indices among the overweight/obese group compared with the lean group: TC/HDL and LDL/HDL (2.99±0.91 vs 2.63±0.48; p=0.016 and 1.73±0.61 vs 1.41±0.46; p= 0.014, respectively). Conclusion: There are multiple cardiometabolic risk factors among the overweight/obese female adolescent group compared with lean adolescent group in the study. Female adolescent who are overweight and obese have higher relative risks of developing cardiometabolic diseases compared with their lean counterparts in the peri-urban Mthatha, South Africa. School health programme focusing on promoting physical exercise, healthy eating and keeping appropriate weight are needed in the country.

Keywords: adolescents, cardiometabolic risk factors, obesity, peri-urban South Africa

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Authors: Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Fatemeh Rezaei

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Introduction: Improving patient safety in health systems is one of the main priorities in healthcare systems, so clinical risk management in organizations has become increasingly significant. Although several tools have been developed for clinical risk management, each has its own limitations. Aims: This study aims to develop a comprehensive tool that can complete the limitations of each risk assessment and management tools with the advantage of other tools. Methods: Procedure was determined in two main stages included development of an initial model during meetings with the professors and literature review, then implementation and verification of final model. Subjects and Methods: This study is a quantitative − qualitative research. In terms of qualitative dimension, method of focus groups with inductive approach is used. To evaluate the results of the qualitative study, quantitative assessment of the two parts of the fourth phase and seven phases of the research was conducted. Purposive and stratification sampling of various responsible teams for the selected process was conducted in the operating room. Final model verified in eight phases through application of activity breakdown structure, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), healthcare risk priority number (RPN), root cause analysis (RCA), FT, and Eindhoven Classification model (ECM) tools. This model has been conducted typically on patients admitted in a day-clinic ward of a public hospital for surgery in October 2012 to June. Statistical Analysis Used: Qualitative data analysis was done through content analysis and quantitative analysis done through checklist and edited RPN tables. Results: After verification the final model in eight-step, patient's admission process for surgery was developed by focus discussion group (FDG) members in five main phases. Then with adopted methodology of FMEA, 85 failure modes along with its causes, effects, and preventive capabilities was set in the tables. Developed tables to calculate RPN index contain three criteria for severity, two criteria for probability, and two criteria for preventability. Tree failure modes were above determined significant risk limitation (RPN > 250). After a 3-month period, patient's misidentification incidents were the most frequent reported events. Each RPN criterion of misidentification events compared and found that various RPN number for tree misidentification reported events could be determine against predicted score in previous phase. Identified root causes through fault tree categorized with ECM. Wrong side surgery event was selected by focus discussion group to purpose improvement action. The most important causes were lack of planning for number and priority of surgical procedures. After prioritization of the suggested interventions, computerized registration system in health information system (HIS) was adopted to prepare the action plan in the final phase. Conclusion: Complexity of health care industry requires risk managers to have a multifaceted vision. Therefore, applying only one of retrospective or prospective tools for risk management does not work and each organization must provide conditions for potential application of these methods in its organization. The results of this study showed that the integrated clinical risk management model can be used in hospitals as an efficient tool in order to improve clinical governance.

Keywords: failure modes and effective analysis, risk management, root cause analysis, model

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Authors: Rebecca Dunne, Cormac Small, Geraldine O'Boyle, Nazir Ibrahim, Anisha

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Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers. It is estimated that approximately 12% of men will develop prostate cancer during their lifetime. Patients with intermediate, high risk, and very-high risk prostate cancer often undergo a combination of radiation treatments. These treatments include external beam radiotherapy with a low-dose rate or high-dose rate brachytherapy boost, often with concomitant androgen deprivation therapy. The literature on follow-up of patients that receive brachytherapy is scarce, particularly follow-up of patients that undergo high-dose rate brachytherapy. This retrospective study aims to investigate the biochemical failure and toxicities associated with triple therapy and external beam radiotherapy given in combination with brachytherapy. Reported toxicities and prostate specific antigen (PSA) were retrospectively evaluated in eighty patients that previously underwent external beam radiotherapy with a low-dose rate or high dose-rate brachytherapy boost. The severity of toxicities were correlated with intra-operative dosing during brachytherapy on ultrasound and CT scan. The results of this study will provide further information for clinicians and patients when considering treatment options.

Keywords: toxicities, combination, brachytherapy, intra-operative dosing, biochemical failure

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Authors: Daniel Ter Goon, Aanuoluwa O. Adedokun, Eyitayo Omolara Owolabi, Oladele Vincent Adeniyi, Anthony Idowu Ajayi

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Background: The unhealthy food choices and sedentary lifestyle of commercial drivers predisposes them to obesity and obesity related diseases. Yet, no attention has been paid to obesity burden among this high risk group in South Africa. This study examines the prevalence of obesity and its risk factors among commercial drivers in East London, South Africa. Methods: This cross-sectional study utilized the WHO STEP wise approach to screen for obesity among 403 drivers in Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality (BCMM), South Africa. Anthropometric, blood pressure and blood glucose measurements were taken following a standard procedure. Overweight and obesity was defined as a body mass index (BMI) of 25.0 kgm⁻²–29.9 kg/m² and≥ 30 kg/ m², respectively. Bivariate and multivariate analysis were used to determine the prevalence and determinants of obesity. Result: The mean age of the participants was 43.3 (SD12.5) years, mean height (cm) and weight (kg) were 170.1(6.2cm) and 83(SD18.7), respectively. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was 34.0% and 38.0%, respectively. After adjusting for confounding factors, only age (OR 1.6, CI 1.0-2.7), hypertension (OR 3.6, CI 2.3-5.7) and non-smoking (OR 2.0, CI 1.3-3.1) were independent predictors of obesity. Conclusion: The prevalence of overweight and obesity is high among commercial drivers. Age, hypertension, and non-smoking were independent predictors of obesity among the sample. Measures aimed at promoting health and reducing obesity should be prioritized among this group.

Keywords: obesity and overweight, commercial taxi drivers, risk factors, South Africa

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Authors: Sadie Khorramnia, Asha Bonney, Kate Galloway, Andrew Kyoong

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Sleep plays a pivotal role in the registration and consolidation of memory. Multiple observational studies have demonstrated that self-reported sleep duration and sleep quality are associated with cognitive performance. Montreal Cognitive Assessment questionnaire is a screening tool to assess mild cognitive (MCI) impairment with a 90% diagnostic sensitivity. In our current study, we used MOCA to identify MCI in patients who underwent sleep study in our sleep department. We then looked at the clinical risk factors and sleep-related parameters in subjects found to have mild cognitive impairment but without a diagnosis of sleep-disordered breathing. Clinical risk factors, including physician, diagnosed hypertension, diabetes, and depression and sleep-related parameters, measured during sleep study, including percentage time of each sleep stage, total sleep time, awakenings, sleep efficiency, apnoea hypopnoea index, and oxygen saturation, were evaluated. A total of 90 subjects who underwent sleep study between March 2019 and October 2019 were included. Currently, there is no pharmacotherapy available for MCI; therefore, identifying the risk factors and attempting to reverse or mitigate their effect is pivotal in slowing down the rate of cognitive deterioration. Further characterization of sleep parameters in this group of patients could open up opportunities for potentially beneficial interventions.

Keywords: apnoea hypopnea index, mild cognitive impairment, sleep architecture, sleep study

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Authors: Jose A. Diaz-Olivares, Nafise Mahdavian, Farhad Abtahi, Kaj Lindecrantz, Abdelakram Hafid, Fernando Seoane

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Despite new recommendations and guidelines for the evaluation of occupational risk assessments and their prevention, work-related musculoskeletal disorders are still one of the biggest causes of work activity disruption, productivity loss, sick leave and chronic work disability. It affects millions of workers throughout Europe, with a large-scale economic and social burden. These specific efforts have failed to produce significant results yet, probably due to the limited availability and high costs of occupational risk assessment at work, especially when the methods are complex, consume excessive resources or depend on self-evaluations and observations of poor accuracy. To overcome these limitations, a pervasive system of risk assessment tools in real time has been developed, which has the characteristics of a systematic approach, with good precision, usability and resource efficiency, essential to facilitate the prevention of musculoskeletal disorders in the long term. The system allows the combination of different wearable sensors, placed on different limbs, to be used for data collection and evaluation by a software solution, according to the needs and requirements in each individual working environment. This is done in a non-disruptive manner for both the occupational health expert and the workers. The creation of this solution allows us to attend different research activities that require, as an essential starting point, the recording of data with ergonomic value of very diverse origin, especially in real work environments. The software platform is here presented with a complimentary smart clothing system for data acquisition, comprised of a T-shirt containing inertial measurement units (IMU), a vest sensorized with textile electronics, a wireless electrocardiogram (ECG) and thoracic electrical bio-impedance (TEB) recorder and a glove sensorized with variable resistors, dependent on the angular position of the wrist. The collected data is processed in real-time through a mobile application software solution, implemented in commercially available Android-based smartphones and tablet platforms. Based on the collection of this information and its analysis, real-time risk assessment and feedback about postural improvement is possible, adapted to different contexts. The result is a tool which provides added value to ergonomists and occupational health agents, as in situ analysis of postural behavior can assist in a quantitative manner in the evaluation of work techniques and the occupational environment.

Keywords: ergonomics, mobile technologies, risk assessment, smart textiles

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Authors: Charlotte K. Lee, Henrique R. N. Aguiar, Ralph Smith, James Baldock, Sam Botchey

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Background: Femoral neck stress fractures (FNSF) are uncommon, making up 1 to 7.2% of stress fractures in healthy subjects. FNSFs are prevalent in young women, military recruits, endurance athletes, and individuals with energy deficiency syndrome or female athlete triad. Presentation is often non-specific and is often misdiagnosed following the initial examination. There is limited research addressing the return–to–activity time after FNSF. Previous studies have demonstrated prognostic time predictions based on various imaging techniques. Here, (1) OxSport clinic FNSF practice standards are retrospectively reviewed, (2) FNSF cohort demographics are examined, (3) Regression models were used to predict return–to–activity prognosis and consequently determine bone stress risk factors. Methods: Patients with a diagnosis of FNSF attending Oxsport clinic between 01/06/2020 and 01/01/2020 were selected from the Rheumatology Assessment Database Innovation in Oxford (RhADiOn) and OxSport Stress Fracture Database (n = 14). (1) Clinical practice was audited against five criteria based on local and National Institute for Health Care Excellence guidance, with a 100% standard. (2) Demographics of the FNSF cohort were examined with Student’s T-Test. (3) Lastly, linear regression and Random Forest regression models were used on this patient cohort to predict return–to–activity time. Consequently, an analysis of feature importance was conducted after fitting each model. Results: OxSport clinical practice met standard (100%) in 3/5 criteria. The criteria not met were patient waiting times and documentation of all bone stress risk factors. Importantly, analysis of patient demographics showed that of the population with complete bone stress risk factor assessments, 53% were positive for modifiable bone stress risk factors. Lastly, linear regression analysis was utilized to identify demographic factors that predicted return–to–activity time [R2 = 79.172%; average error 0.226]. This analysis identified four key variables that predicted return-to-activity time: vitamin D level, total hip DEXA T value, femoral neck DEXA T value, and history of an eating disorder/disordered eating. Furthermore, random forest regression models were employed for this task [R2 = 97.805%; average error 0.024]. Analysis of the importance of each feature again identified a set of 4 variables, 3 of which matched with the linear regression analysis (vitamin D level, total hip DEXA T value, and femoral neck DEXA T value) and the fourth: age. Conclusion: OxSport clinical practice could be improved by more comprehensively evaluating bone stress risk factors. The importance of this evaluation is demonstrated by the population found positive for these risk factors. Using this cohort, potential bone stress risk factors that significantly impacted return-to-activity prognosis were predicted using regression models.

Keywords: eating disorder, bone stress risk factor, femoral neck stress fracture, vitamin D

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Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

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Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

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Authors: Bartłomiej K. Sołtysik, Agnieszka Guligowska, Łukasz Kroc, Małgorzata Pigłowska, Elizavetta Fife, Tomasz Kostka

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Introduction: Functional capacity is one of the basic determinants of health in older age. Functional capacity may be influenced by multiple disorders, including cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Nevertheless, there is relatively little evidence regarding the association of functional status and cardiometabolic risk factors. Aim: The aim of this research is to check possible association between functional capacity and cardiovascular risk factor in a group of younger seniors. Materials and Methods: The study group consisted of 300 participants aged 60-65 years (50% were women). Total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), glucose, uric acid, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and blood pressure were measured. Smoking status and physical activity level (by Seven Day Physical Activity Recall Questionnaire ) were analysed. Functional status was assessed with the Timed Up and Go (TUG) Test. The data were compared according to gender, and then separately for both sexes regarding prolonged TUG score (>7 s). The limit of significance was set at p≤0.05 for all analyses. Results: Women presented with higher serum lipids and longer TUG. Men had higher blood pressure, glucose, uric acid, the prevalence of hypertension and history of heart infarct. In women group, those with prolonged TUG displayed significantly higher obesity rate (BMI, WHTR), uric acid, hypertension and ischemic heart disease (IHD), but lower physical activity level, TC or LDL-C. Men with prolonged TUG were heavier smokers, had higher TG, lower HDL and presented with higher prevalence of diabetes and IHD. Discussion: This study shows association between functional status and risk profile of cardiometabolic disorders. In women, the relationship of lower functional status to cardiometabolic diseases may be mediated by overweight/obesity. In men, locomotor problems may be related to smoking. Higher education level may be considered as a protective factor regardless of gender.

Keywords: cardiovascular risk factors, functional capacity, TUG test, seniors

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Authors: Navah Z. Ratzon, Rachel Shichrur

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Background: Many studies have assessed and identified the risk factors of safe driving, but there is relatively little research-based evidence concerning the ability to improve the driving skills of drivers in general and in particular of bus drivers, who are defined as a population at risk. Accidents involving bus drivers can endanger dozens of passengers and cause high direct and indirect damages. Objective: To examine the effectiveness of a metacognitive-functional intervention program for the reduction of risk factors among professional drivers relative to a control group. Methods: The study examined 77 bus drivers working for a large public company in the center of the country, aged 27-69. Twenty-one drivers continued to the intervention stage; four of them dropped out before the end of the intervention. The intervention program we developed was based on previous driving models and the guiding occupational therapy practice framework model in Israel, while adjusting the model to the professional driving in public transportation and its particular risk factors. Treatment focused on raising awareness to safe driving risk factors identified at prescreening (ergonomic, perceptual-cognitive and on-road driving data), with reference to the difficulties that the driver raises and providing coping strategies. The intervention has been customized for each driver and included three sessions of two hours. The effectiveness of the intervention was tested using objective measures: In-Vehicle Data Recorders (IVDR) for monitoring natural driving data, traffic accident data before and after the intervention, and subjective measures (occupational performance questionnaire for bus drivers). Results: Statistical analysis found a significant difference between the degree of change in the rate of IVDR perilous events (t(17)=2.14, p=0.046), before and after the intervention. There was significant difference in the number of accidents per year before and after the intervention in the intervention group (t(17)=2.11, p=0.05), but no significant change in the control group. Subjective ratings of the level of performance and of satisfaction with performance improved in all areas tested following the intervention. The change in the ‘human factors/person’ field, was significant (performance : t=- 2.30, p=0.04; satisfaction with performance : t=-3.18, p=0.009). The change in the ‘driving occupation/tasks’ field, was not significant but showed a tendency toward significance (t=-1.94, p=0.07,). No significant differences were found in driving environment-related variables. Conclusions: The metacognitive-functional intervention significantly improved the objective and subjective measures of safety of bus drivers’ driving. These novel results highlight the potential contribution of occupational therapists, using metacognitive functional treatment, to preventing car accidents among the healthy drivers population and improving the well-being of these drivers. This study also enables familiarity with advanced technologies of IVDR systems and enriches the knowledge of occupational therapists in regards to using a wide variety of driving assessment tools and making the best practice decisions.

Keywords: bus drivers, IVDR, human risk factors, metacognitive-functional intervention

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Authors: Alina Fedossova, Jose Jorge Sierra Molina

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SIP problems are part of non-classical optimization. There are problems in which the number of variables is finite, and the number of constraints is infinite. These are semi-infinite programming problems. Most algorithms for semi-infinite programming problems reduce the semi-infinite problem to a finite one and solve it by classical methods of linear or nonlinear programming. Typically, any of the constraints or the objective function is nonlinear, so the problem often involves nonlinear programming. An investment portfolio is a set of instruments used to reach the specific purposes of investors. The risk of the entire portfolio may be less than the risks of individual investment of portfolio. For example, we could make an investment of M euros in N shares for a specified period. Let yi> 0, the return on money invested in stock i for each dollar since the end of the period (i = 1, ..., N). The logical goal here is to determine the amount xi to be invested in stock i, i = 1, ..., N, such that we maximize the period at the end of ytx value, where x = (x1, ..., xn) and y = (y1, ..., yn). For us the optimal portfolio means the best portfolio in the ratio "risk-return" to the investor portfolio that meets your goals and risk ways. Therefore, investment goals and risk appetite are the factors that influence the choice of appropriate portfolio of assets. The investment returns are uncertain. Thus we have a semi-infinite programming problem. We solve a semi-infinite optimization problem of portfolio selection using the outer approximations methods. This approach can be considered as a developed Eaves-Zangwill method applying the multi-start technique in all of the iterations for the search of relevant constraints' parameters. The stochastic outer approximations method, successfully applied previously for robotics problems, Chebyshev approximation problems, air pollution and others, is based on the optimal criteria of quasi-optimal functions. As a result we obtain mathematical model and the optimal investment portfolio when yields are not clear from the beginning. Finally, we apply this algorithm to a specific case of a Colombian bank.

Keywords: outer approximation methods, portfolio problem, semi-infinite programming, numerial solution

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Authors: James Freeman, Andry Rakotonirainy

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Train pedestrian collisions are common and are the most likely to result in severe injuries and fatalities when compared to other types of rail crossing accidents. However, there is limited research that has focused on understanding the reasons why some pedestrians’ break level crossings rules, which limits the development of effective countermeasures. As a result, this study undertook a deeper exploration into the origins of risky pedestrian behaviour through structured interviews. A total of 40 pedestrians who admitted to either intentionally breaking crossing rules or making crossing errors participated in an in-depth telephone interview. Qualitative analysis was undertaken via thematic analysis that revealed participants were more likely to report deliberately breaking rules (rather than make errors), particular after the train had passed the crossing as compared to before it arrives. Predominant reasons for such behaviours were identified to be: calculated risk taking, impatience, poor knowledge of rules and low likelihood of detection. The findings have direct implications for the development of effective countermeasures to improve crossing safety (and managing risk) such as increasing surveillance and transit officer presence, as well as installing appropriate barriers that either deter or incapacitate pedestrians from violating crossing rules. This paper will further outline the study findings in regards to the development of countermeasures as well as provide direction for future research efforts in this area.

Keywords: crossings, mistakes, risk, violations

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Authors: Ananya Das, Arun Kumar, Gazala Habib, Vivekanandan Perumal

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Regulatory bodies has proposed limits on Particulate Matter (PM) concentration in air; however, it does not explicitly indicate the incorporation of effects of toxicities of constituents of PM in developing regulatory limits. This study aimed to provide a structured approach to incorporate toxic effects of components in developing regulatory limits on PM. A four-step human health risk assessment framework consists of - (1) hazard identification (parameters: PM and its constituents and their associated toxic effects on health), (2) exposure assessment (parameters: concentrations of PM and constituents, information on size and shape of PM; fate and transport of PM and constituents in respiratory system), (3) dose-response assessment (parameters: reference dose or target toxicity dose of PM and its constituents), and (4) risk estimation (metric: hazard quotient and/or lifetime incremental risk of cancer as applicable). Then parameters required at every step were obtained from literature. Using this information, an attempt has been made to determine limits on PM using component-specific information. An example calculation was conducted for exposures of PM_2.5 and its metal constituents from Indian ambient environment to determine limit on PM values. Identified data gaps were: (1) concentrations of PM and its constituents and their relationship with sampling regions, (2) relationship of toxicity of PM with its components.

Keywords: air, component-specific toxicity, human health risks, particulate matter

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Authors: Hillary Onyeka Abugu, Valentine Chinakwugwo Ezea, Janefrances Ngozi Ihedioha, Nwachukwu Romanus Ekere

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The study assessed the spring water quality in Igbo-Etiti, Nigeria, for drinking and irrigation application using Physico-chemical parameters, water quality index, mineral and trace elements, pollution indices and risk assessment. Standard methods were used to determine the physicochemical properties of the spring water in rainy and dry seasons. Trace metals such as Pb, Cd, Zn and Cu were determined with atomic absorption spectrophotometer. The results showed that most of the physicochemical properties studied were within the guideline values set by Nigeria Standard for Drinking Water Quality (NSDWQ), WHO and US EPA for drinking water purposes. However, pH of all the spring water (4.27- 4.73; and 4.95- 5.73), lead (Pb) (0.01-1.08 mg/L) and cadmium (Cd) (0.01-0.15 mg/L) concentrations were above the guideline values in both seasons. This could be attributed to the lithography of the study area, which is the Nsukka formation. Leaching of lead and sulphides from the embedded coal deposits could have led to the increased lead levels and made the water acidic. Two-way ANOVA showed significant differences in most of the parameters studied in dry and rainy seasons. Pearson correlation analysis and cluster analysis showed strong significant positive and negative correlations in some of the parameters studied in both seasons. The water quality index showed that none of the spring water had excellent water status. However, one spring (Iyi Ase) had poor water status in dry season and is considered unsafe for drinking. Iyi Ase was also considered not suitable for irrigation application as predicted by most of the pollution indices, while others were generally considered suitable for irrigation application. Probable cancer and non-cancer risk assessment revealed a probable risk associated with the consumption of the spring in the Igbo-Ettiti area, Nigeria.

Keywords: water quality, pollution index, risk assessment, physico-chemical parameters

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Authors: Nadia H. Mohammed, Anmar Al-Taie, Fadia H. Al-Sultany

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Although breast cancer prevalence continues to increase, mortality has been decreasing as a result of early detection and improvement in adjuvant systemic therapy. Nevertheless, this disease required further efforts to understand and identify the associated potential risk factors that could play a role in the prevalence of this malignancy among Iraqi women. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of certain predictive risk factors on the prevalence of breast cancer types among a sample of Iraqi women diagnosed with breast cancer. This was a retrospective observational study carried out at National Cancer Research Center in College of Medicine, Baghdad University from November 2017 to January 2018. Data of 100 patients with breast cancer whose biopsies examined in the National Cancer Research Center were included in this study. Data were collected to structure a detailed assessment regarding the patients’ demographic, medical and cancer records. The majority of study participants (94%) suffered from ductal breast cancer with mean age 49.57 years. Among those women, 48.9% were obese with body mass index (BMI) 35 kg/m². 68.1% of them had positive family history of breast cancer and 66% had low parity. 40.4% had stage II ductal breast cancer followed by 25.5% with stage III. It was found that 59.6% and 68.1% had positive oestrogen receptor sensitivity and positive human epidermal growth factor (HER2/neu) receptor sensitivity respectively. In regard to the impact of prediction of certain variables on the incidence of ductal breast cancer, positive family history of breast cancer (P < 0.0001), low parity (P< 0.0001), stage I and II breast cancer (P = 0.02) and positive HER2/neu status (P < 0.0001) were significant predictive factors among the study participants. The results from this study provide relevant evidence for a significant positive and potential association between certain risk factors and the prevalence of breast cancer among Iraqi women.

Keywords: Ductal Breast Cancer, Hormone Sensitivity, Iraq, Risk Factors

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Authors: Ida Ngurah

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Indonesia is one of the most prone disaster countries, which has earthquake, tsunami or high wave, flood and landslide as well as volcano eruption and drought. Disaster risk reduction has been developing extensively and comprehensively, particularly after tsunami hit in 2004. Yet, saving people live including children and youth from disaster risk is still far from succeed. Poor management of environment, poor development of policy and high level of corruption has become challenges for Indonesia to save its people from disaster impact. Indonesia is struggling to ensure its future best investment, children and youth to have better protection when disaster strike in school hours and have basic knowledge on disaster risk reduction. The program of safe school is being initiated and developed by Plan Indonesia since 2010, yet this effort still needs to be elaborated. This paper is reviewing sporadic safe school programs that have been implemented or currently being implemented Plan Indonesia in few areas of Indonesia, including both rural and urban setting. Methods used are in-depth interview with dedicated person for the program from Plan Indonesia and its implementing patners and analysis of project documents. The review includes program’s goal and objectives, implementation activity, result and achievement as well as its monitoring and evaluation scheme. Moreover, paper will be showing challenges, lesson learned and best practices of the program. Eventually, paper will come up with recommendation for strategy for better implementation of safe school program in Indonesia.

Keywords: disaster impact, safe school, programs, children, youth

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Authors: Jiajia Peng, Jianqing Qiu, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

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Background: Insufficient sleep has been focused on as a public health epidemic. However, a comprehensive analysis of disease trajectory associated with unhealthy sleep habits is still unclear currently. Objective: This study sought to comprehensively clarify the disease's trajectory in relation to the overall poor sleep pattern and unhealthy sleep behaviors separately. Methods: 410,682 participants with available information on sleep behaviors were collected from the UK Biobank at the baseline visit (2006-2010). These participants were classified as having high- and low risk of each sleep behavior and were followed from 2006 to 2020 to identify the increased risks of diseases. We used Cox regression to estimate the associations of high-risk sleep behaviors with the elevated risks of diseases, and further established diseases trajectory using significant diseases. The low-risk unhealthy sleep behaviors were defined as the reference. Thereafter, we also examined the trajectory of diseases linked with the overall poor sleep pattern by combining all of these unhealthy sleep behaviors. To visualize the disease's trajectory, network analysis was used for presenting these trajectories. Results: During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, we noted 12 medical conditions in relation to unhealthy sleep behaviors and the overall poor sleep pattern among 410,682 participants with a median age of 58.0 years. The majority of participants had unhealthy sleep behaviors; in particular, 75.62% with frequent sleeplessness, and 72.12% had abnormal sleep durations. Besides, a total of 16,032 individuals with an overall poor sleep pattern were identified. In general, three major disease clusters were associated with overall poor sleep status and unhealthy sleep behaviors according to the disease trajectory and network analysis, mainly in the digestive, musculoskeletal and connective tissue, and cardiometabolic systems. Of note, two circularity disease pairs (I25→I20 and I48→I50) showed the highest risks following these unhealthy sleep habits. Additionally, significant differences in disease trajectories were observed in relation to sex and sleep medication among individuals with poor sleep status. Conclusions: We identified the major disease clusters and high-risk diseases following participants with overall poor sleep health and unhealthy sleep behaviors, respectively. It may suggest the need to investigate the potential interventions targeting these key pathways.

Keywords: sleep, poor sleep, unhealthy sleep behaviors, disease trajectory, UK Biobank

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