Search results for: fog occurrence
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 1261

Search results for: fog occurrence

121 Ways to Prevent Increased Wear of the Drive Box Parts and the Central Drive of the Civil Aviation Turbo Engine Based on Tribology

Authors: Liudmila Shabalinskaya, Victor Golovanov, Liudmila Milinis, Sergey Loponos, Alexander Maslov, D. O. Frolov

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The work is devoted to the rapid laboratory diagnosis of the condition of aircraft friction units, based on the application of the nondestructive testing method by analyzing the parameters of wear particles, or tribodiagnostics. The most important task of tribodiagnostics is to develop recommendations for the selection of more advanced designs, materials and lubricants based on data on wear processes for increasing the life and ensuring the safety of the operation of machines and mechanisms. The object of tribodiagnostics in this work are the tooth gears of the central drive and the gearboxes of the gas turbine engine of the civil aviation PS-90A type, in which rolling friction and sliding friction with slip occur. The main criterion for evaluating the technical state of lubricated friction units of a gas turbine engine is the intensity and rate of wear of the friction surfaces of the friction unit parts. When the engine is running, oil samples are taken and the state of the friction surfaces is evaluated according to the parameters of the wear particles contained in the oil sample, which carry important and detailed information about the wear processes in the engine transmission units. The parameters carrying this information include the concentration of wear particles and metals in the oil, the dispersion composition, the shape, the size ratio and the number of particles, the state of their surfaces, the presence in the oil of various mechanical impurities of non-metallic origin. Such a morphological analysis of wear particles has been introduced into the order of monitoring the status and diagnostics of various aircraft engines, including a gas turbine engine, since the type of wear characteristic of the central drive and the drive box is surface fatigue wear and the beginning of its development, accompanied by the formation of microcracks, leads to the formation of spherical, up to 10 μm in size, and in the aftermath of flocculent particles measuring 20-200 μm in size. Tribodiagnostics using the morphological analysis of wear particles includes the following techniques: ferrography, filtering, and computer analysis of the classification and counting of wear particles. Based on the analysis of several series of oil samples taken from the drive box of the engine during their operating time, a study was carried out of the processes of wear kinetics. Based on the results of the study and comparing the series of criteria for tribodiagnostics, wear state ratings and statistics of the results of morphological analysis, norms for the normal operating regime were developed. The study allowed to develop levels of wear state for friction surfaces of gearing and a 10-point rating system for estimating the likelihood of the occurrence of an increased wear mode and, accordingly, prevention of engine failures in flight.

Keywords: aviation, box of drives, morphological analysis, tribodiagnostics, tribology, ferrography, filtering, wear particle

Procedia PDF Downloads 238
120 Age-Related Health Problems and Needs of Elderly People Living in Rural Areas in Poland

Authors: Anna Mirczak

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Introduction: In connection with the aging of the population and the increase in the number of people with chronic illnesses, the priority objective for public health has become not only lengthening life, but also improving quality of life in older persons, as well as maintenance of their relative independence and active participation in social life. The most important determinant of a person’s quality of life is health. According to the literature, older people with chronic illness who live in rural settings are at greater risk for poor outcomes than their urban counterparts. Furthermore research characterizes the rural elderly as having a higher incidence of sickness, dysfunction, disability, restricted mobility, and acute and chronic conditions than their urban citizens. It is dictated by the overlapping certain specific socio-economic factors typical for rural areas which include: social and geography exclusion, limited access to health care centers, and low socioeconomic status. Aim of the study: The objective of this study was to recognize health status and needs of older people living in selected rural areas in Poland and evaluate the impacts of working in the farm on their health status. Material and methods: The study was performed personally, using interviews based on the structural questionnaires, during the period from March 2011 to October 2012. The group of respondents consisted 203 people aged 65 years and over living in selected rural areas in Poland. The analysis of collected research material was performed using the statistical package SPSS 19 for Windows. The level of significance for the tested the hypotheses assumed value of 0.05. Results: The mean age of participants was 75,5 years (SD=5,7) range from 65 to 94 years. Most of the interviewees had children (89.2%) and grandchildren (83.7) and lived mainly with family members (75.9%) mostly in double (46.8%) and triple (20.8%) household. The majority of respondents (71,9%) were physical working on the farm. At the time of interview, each of the respondents reported that they had been diagnosed with at least one chronic diseases by their GP. The most common were: hypertension (67,5%), osteoarthritis (44,8%), atherosclerosis (43,3%), cataract (40,4%), arrhythmia (28,6%), diabetes mellitus (19,7%) and stomach or duodenum ulcer diseases (17,2%).The number of diseases occurring of the sample was dependent on gender and age. Significant associations were observed between working on the farm and frequency of occurrence cardiovascular diseases, the gastrointestinal tract dysfunction and sensory disorders. Conclusions: The most common causes of disability among older citizens were: chronic diseases, malnutrition and complaints about access to health services (especially to cardiologist and an ophthalmologist). Health care access and health status are a particular concern in rural areas where the population is older, has lower education and income levels, and is more likely to be living in medically underserved areas than is the case in urban areas.

Keywords: ageing, health status, older people, rural

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
119 Distribution and Diversity of Pyrenocarpous Lichens in India with Special Reference to Forest Health

Authors: Gaurav Kumar Mishra, Sanjeeva Nayaka, Dalip Kumar Upreti

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Our nature exhibited presence of a number of unique plants which can be used as indicator of environmental condition of particular place. Lichens are unique plant which has an ability to absorb not only organic, inorganic and metaloties but also absorb radioactive nuclide substances present in the environment. In the present study pyrenocarpous lichens will used as indicator of good forest health in a particular place. The Pyrenocarpous lichens are simple crust forming with black dot like perithecia have few characters for their taxonomical segregation as compared to their foliose and fruticose brethrean. The thallus colour and nature, presence and absence of hypothallus are only few characters of thallus are used to segregate the pyrenocarpous taxa. The fruiting bodies of pyrenolichens i.e. ascocarps are perithecia. The perithecia and the contents found within them posses many important criteria for the segregation of pyrenocarpous lichen taxa. The ascocarp morphology, ascocarp arrangement, the perithecial wall, ascocarp shape and colour, ostiole shape and position, ostiole colour, ascocarp anatomy including type of paraphyses, asci shape and size, ascospores septation, ascospores wall and periphyses are the valuable charcters used for segregation of different pyrenocarpous lichen taxa. India is represented by the occurrence of the 350 species of 44 genera and eleven families. Among the different genera Pyrenula is dominant with 82 species followed by the Porina with 70 species. Recently, systematic of the pyrenocarpous lichens have been revised by American and European lichenologists using phylogenetic methods. Still the taxonomy of pyrenocarpous lichens is in flux and information generated after the completion of this study will play vital role in settlement of the taxonomy of this peculiar group of lichens worldwide. The Indian Himalayan region exhibit rich diversity of pyrenocarpous lichens in India. The western Himalayan region has luxuriance of pyrenocarpous lichens due to its unique topography and climate condition. However, the eastern Himalayan region has rich diversity of pyrenocarpous lichens due to its warmer and moist climate condition. The rich moist and warmer climate in eastern Himalayan region supports forest with dominance of evergreen tree vegetation. The pyrenocarpous lichens communities are good indicator of young and regenerated forest type. The rich diversity of lichens clearly indicates that moist of the forest within the eastern Himalayan region has good health of forest. Due to fast pace of urbanization and other developmental activities will defiantly have adverse effects on the diversity and distribution of pyrenocarpous lichens in different forest type and the present distribution pattern will act as baseline data for carried out future biomonitoring studies in the area.

Keywords: lichen diversity, indicator species, environmental factors, pyrenocarpous

Procedia PDF Downloads 126
118 Slope Stability Assessment in Metasedimentary Deposit of an Opencast Mine: The Case of the Dikuluwe-Mashamba (DIMA) Mine in the DR Congo

Authors: Dina Kon Mushid, Sage Ngoie, Tshimbalanga Madiba, Kabutakapua Kakanda

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Slope stability assessment is still the biggest challenge in mining activities and civil engineering structures. The slope in an opencast mine frequently reaches multiple weak layers that lead to the instability of the pit. Faults and soft layers throughout the rock would increase weathering and erosion rates. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the stability of the complex strata to figure out how stable they are. In the Dikuluwe-Mashamba (DIMA) area, the lithology of the stratum is a set of metamorphic rocks whose parent rocks are sedimentary rocks with a low degree of metamorphism. Thus, due to the composition and metamorphism of the parent rock, the rock formation is different in hardness and softness, which means that when the content of dolomitic and siliceous is high, the rock is hard. It is softer when the content of argillaceous and sandy is high. Therefore, from the vertical direction, it appears as a weak and hard layer, and from the horizontal direction, it seems like a smooth and hard layer in the same rock layer. From the structural point of view, the main structures in the mining area are the Dikuluwe dipping syncline and the Mashamba dipping anticline, and the occurrence of rock formations varies greatly. During the folding process of the rock formation, the stress will concentrate on the soft layer, causing the weak layer to be broken. At the same time, the phenomenon of interlayer dislocation occurs. This article aimed to evaluate the stability of metasedimentary rocks of the Dikuluwe-Mashamba (DIMA) open-pit mine using limit equilibrium and stereographic methods Based on the presence of statistical structural planes, the stereographic projection was used to study the slope's stability and examine the discontinuity orientation data to identify failure zones along the mine. The results revealed that the slope angle is too steep, and it is easy to induce landslides. The numerical method's sensitivity analysis showed that the slope angle and groundwater significantly impact the slope safety factor. The increase in the groundwater level substantially reduces the stability of the slope. Among the factors affecting the variation in the rate of the safety factor, the bulk density of soil is greater than that of rock mass, the cohesion of soil mass is smaller than that of rock mass, and the friction angle in the rock mass is much larger than that in the soil mass. The analysis showed that the rock mass structure types are mostly scattered and fragmented; the stratum changes considerably, and the variation of rock and soil mechanics parameters is significant.

Keywords: slope stability, weak layer, safety factor, limit equilibrium method, stereography method

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
117 Inhibition of Food Borne Pathogens by Bacteriocinogenic Enterococcus Strains

Authors: Neha Farid

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Due to the abuse of antimicrobial medications in animal feed, the occurrence of multi-drug resistant (MDR) pathogens in foods is currently a growing public health concern on a global scale. MDR infections have the potential to penetrate the food chain by posing a serious risk to both consumers and animals. Food pathogens are those biological agents that have the tendency to cause pathogenicity in the host body upon ingestion. The major reservoirs of foodborne pathogens include food-producing fauna like cows, pigs, goats, sheep, deer, etc. The intestines of these animals are highly condensed with several different types of food pathogens. Bacterial food pathogens are the main cause of foodborne disease in humans; almost 66% of the reported cases of food illness in a year are caused by the infestation of bacterial food pathogens. When ingested, these pathogens reproduce and survive or form different kinds of toxins inside host cells causing severe infections. The genus Listeria consists of gram-positive, rod-shaped, non-spore-forming bacteria. The disease caused by Listeria monocytogenes is listeriosis or gastroenteritis, which induces fever, vomiting, and severe diarrhea in the affected body. Campylobacter jejuni is a gram-negative, curved-rod-shaped bacteria causing foodborne illness. The major source of Campylobacter jejuni is livestock and poultry; particularly, chicken is highly colonized with Campylobacter jejuni. Serious public health concerns include the widespread growth of bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics and the slowing in the discovery of new classes of medicines. The objective of this study is to provide some potential antibacterial activities with certain broad-range antibiotics and our desired bacteriocins, i.e., Enterococcus faecium from specific strains preventing microbial contamination pathways in order to safeguard the food by lowering food deterioration, contamination, and foodborne illnesses. The food pathogens were isolated from various sources of dairy products and meat samples. The isolates were tested for the presence of Listeria and Campylobacter by gram staining and biochemical testing. They were further sub-cultured on selective media enriched with the growth supplements for Listeria and Campylobacter. All six strains of Listeria and Campylobacter were tested against ten antibiotics. Campylobacter strains showed resistance against all the antibiotics, whereas Listeria was found to be resistant only against Nalidixic Acid and Erythromycin. Further, the strains were tested against the two bacteriocins isolated from Enterococcus faecium. It was found that bacteriocins showed better antimicrobial activity against food pathogens. They can be used as a potential antimicrobial for food preservation. Thus, the study concluded that natural antimicrobials could be used as alternatives to synthetic antimicrobials to overcome the problem of food spoilage and severe food diseases.

Keywords: food pathogens, listeria, campylobacter, antibiotics, bacteriocins

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116 On Stochastic Models for Fine-Scale Rainfall Based on Doubly Stochastic Poisson Processes

Authors: Nadarajah I. Ramesh

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Much of the research on stochastic point process models for rainfall has focused on Poisson cluster models constructed from either the Neyman-Scott or Bartlett-Lewis processes. The doubly stochastic Poisson process provides a rich class of point process models, especially for fine-scale rainfall modelling. This paper provides an account of recent development on this topic and presents the results based on some of the fine-scale rainfall models constructed from this class of stochastic point processes. Amongst the literature on stochastic models for rainfall, greater emphasis has been placed on modelling rainfall data recorded at hourly or daily aggregation levels. Stochastic models for sub-hourly rainfall are equally important, as there is a need to reproduce rainfall time series at fine temporal resolutions in some hydrological applications. For example, the study of climate change impacts on hydrology and water management initiatives requires the availability of data at fine temporal resolutions. One approach to generating such rainfall data relies on the combination of an hourly stochastic rainfall simulator, together with a disaggregator making use of downscaling techniques. Recent work on this topic adopted a different approach by developing specialist stochastic point process models for fine-scale rainfall aimed at generating synthetic precipitation time series directly from the proposed stochastic model. One strand of this approach focused on developing a class of doubly stochastic Poisson process (DSPP) models for fine-scale rainfall to analyse data collected in the form of rainfall bucket tip time series. In this context, the arrival pattern of rain gauge bucket tip times N(t) is viewed as a DSPP whose rate of occurrence varies according to an unobserved finite state irreducible Markov process X(t). Since the likelihood function of this process can be obtained, by conditioning on the underlying Markov process X(t), the models were fitted with maximum likelihood methods. The proposed models were applied directly to the raw data collected by tipping-bucket rain gauges, thus avoiding the need to convert tip-times to rainfall depths prior to fitting the models. One advantage of this approach was that the use of maximum likelihood methods enables a more straightforward estimation of parameter uncertainty and comparison of sub-models of interest. Another strand of this approach employed the DSPP model for the arrivals of rain cells and attached a pulse or a cluster of pulses to each rain cell. Different mechanisms for the pattern of the pulse process were used to construct variants of this model. We present the results of these models when they were fitted to hourly and sub-hourly rainfall data. The results of our analysis suggest that the proposed class of stochastic models is capable of reproducing the fine-scale structure of the rainfall process, and hence provides a useful tool in hydrological modelling.

Keywords: fine-scale rainfall, maximum likelihood, point process, stochastic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 255
115 Gender Differences in the Impact and Subjective Interpretation of Childhood Sexual Abuse Survivors

Authors: T. Borja-Alvarez, V. Jiménez-Borja, M. Jiménez Borja, C. J. Jiménez-Mosquera

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Research on child sexual abuse has predominantly focused on female survivors. This has resulted in less research looking at the particular context in which this abuse takes place for boys and the impact this abuse may have on male survivors. The aim of this study is to examine the sex and age of the perpetrators of child sexual abuse and explore gender differences in the impact along with the subjective interpretation that survivors attribute to these experiences. The data for this study was obtained from Ecuadorian university students (M = 230, F = 293) who reported sexual abuse using the ISPCAN Child Abuse Screening Tool Retrospective version (ICAST-R). Participants completed Horowitz's Impact of Event Scale (IES) and were also requested to choose among neutral, positive, and negative adjectives to describe these experiences. The results indicate that in the case of males, perpetrators were both males (adults =27%, peers =20%, relatives =10.3%, cousins =7.4%) and young females (girlfriends or ex-girlfriends =25.6%, neighborhood =20.7%, school =16.7%, cousins =15.3%, strangers =12.8%). In contrast, almost all females reported that adult males were the perpetrators (relatives =29.6%, neighborhood =11.9%, strangers =19.9%, family friends =9.7%). Regarding the impact of these events, significant gender differences emerged. More females (50%) than males (20%) presented symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Gender differences also surfaced in the way survivors interpret their experiences. Almost half of the male participants selected the word “consensual” followed by the words “normal”, “helped me to mature”, “shameful”, “confusing”, and “traumatic”. In contrast, almost all females chose the word “non-consensual” followed by the words “shameful”, “traumatic”, “scary”, and “confusing”. In conclusion, the findings of this study suggest that young females and adult males were the most common perpetrators of sexually abused boys whereas adult males were the most common perpetrators of sexually abused girls. The impact and the subjective interpretation of these experiences were more negative for girls than for boys. The factors that account for the gender differences in the impact and the interpretation of these experiences need further exploration. It is likely that the cultural expectations of sexual behaviors for boys and girls in Latin American societies may partially explain the differential impact in the way these childhood sexual abuse experiences are interpreted in adulthood. In Ecuador, as is the case in other Latin American countries, the machismo culture not only accepts but encourages early sexual behaviors in boys and negatively judges premature sexual behavior in females. The result of these different sexual expectations may be that sexually abused boys may re-define these experiences as “consensual” and “normal” in adulthood, even though these were not consensual at the time of occurrence. Future studies are needed to more deeply understand the different contexts of sexual abuse for boys and girls in order to analyze the long-term impact of these experiences.

Keywords: abuse, child, gender differences, sexual

Procedia PDF Downloads 77
114 Comparison of GIS-Based Soil Erosion Susceptibility Models Using Support Vector Machine, Binary Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network in the Southwest Amazon Region

Authors: Elaine Lima Da Fonseca, Eliomar Pereira Da Silva Filho

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The modeling of areas susceptible to soil loss by hydro erosive processes consists of a simplified instrument of reality with the purpose of predicting future behaviors from the observation and interaction of a set of geoenvironmental factors. The models of potential areas for soil loss will be obtained through binary logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines. The choice of the municipality of Colorado do Oeste in the south of the western Amazon is due to soil degradation due to anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture, road construction, overgrazing, deforestation, and environmental and socioeconomic configurations. Initially, a soil erosion inventory map constructed through various field investigations will be designed, including the use of remotely piloted aircraft, orbital imagery, and the PLANAFLORO/RO database. 100 sampling units with the presence of erosion will be selected based on the assumptions indicated in the literature, and, to complement the dichotomous analysis, 100 units with no erosion will be randomly designated. The next step will be the selection of the predictive parameters that exert, jointly, directly, or indirectly, some influence on the mechanism of occurrence of soil erosion events. The chosen predictors are altitude, declivity, aspect or orientation of the slope, curvature of the slope, composite topographic index, flow power index, lineament density, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, lithology, soil type, erosivity, and ground surface temperature. After evaluating the relative contribution of each predictor variable, the erosion susceptibility model will be applied to the municipality of Colorado do Oeste - Rondônia through the SPSS Statistic 26 software. Evaluation of the model will occur through the determination of the values of the R² of Cox & Snell and the R² of Nagelkerke, Hosmer and Lemeshow Test, Log Likelihood Value, and Wald Test, in addition to analysis of the Confounding Matrix, ROC Curve and Accumulated Gain according to the model specification. The validation of the synthesis map resulting from both models of the potential risk of soil erosion will occur by means of Kappa indices, accuracy, and sensitivity, as well as by field verification of the classes of susceptibility to erosion using drone photogrammetry. Thus, it is expected to obtain the mapping of the following classes of susceptibility to erosion very low, low, moderate, very high, and high, which may constitute a screening tool to identify areas where more detailed investigations need to be carried out, applying more efficient social resources.

Keywords: modeling, susceptibility to erosion, artificial intelligence, Amazon

Procedia PDF Downloads 44
113 Toxic Chemicals from Industries into Pacific Biota. Investigation of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs), Dioxins (PCDD), Furans (PCDF) and Polybrominated Diphenyls (PBDE No. 47) in Tuna and Shellfish in Kiribati, Solomon Islands and the Fiji Islands

Authors: Waisea Votadroka, Bert Van Bavel

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The most commonly consumed shellfish species produced in the Pacific, shellfish and tuna fish, were investigated for the occurrence of a range of brominated and chlorinated contaminants in order to establish current levels. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) were analysed in the muscle of tuna species Katsuwonis pelamis, yellow fin tuna, and shellfish species from the Fiji Islands. The investigation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), furans (PCDFs) and polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDE No.47) in tuna and shellfish in Kiribati, Solomon Islands and Fiji is necessary due to the lack of research data in the Pacific region. The health risks involved in the consumption of marine foods laced with toxic organo-chlorinated and brominated compounds makes in the analyses of these compounds in marine foods important particularly when Pacific communities rely on these resources as their main diet. The samples were homogenized in a motor with anhydrous sodium sulphate in the ratio of 1:3 (muscle) and 1:4-1:5 (roe and butter). The tuna and shellfish samples were homogenized and freeze dried at the sampling location at the Institute of Applied Science, Fiji. All samples were stored in amber glss jars at -18 ° C until extraction at Orebro University. PCDD/Fs, PCBs and pesticides were all analysed using an Autospec Ultina HRGC/HRMS operating at 10,000 resolutions with EI ionization at 35 eV. All the measurements were performed in the selective ion recording mode (SIR), monitoring the two most abundant ions of the molecular cluster (PCDD/Fs and PCBs). Results indicated that the Fiji Composite sample for Batissa violacea range 0.7-238.6 pg/g lipid; Fiji sample composite Anadara antiquate range 1.6 – 808.6 pg/g lipid; Solomon Islands Katsuwonis Pelamis 7.5-3770.7 pg/g lipid; Solomon Islands Yellow Fin tuna 2.1 -778.4 pg/g lipid; Kiribati Katsuwonis Pelamis 4.8-1410 pg/g lipids. The study has demonstrated that these species are good bio-indicators of the presence of these toxic organic pollutants in edible marine foods. Our results suggest that for pesticides levels, p,p-DDE is the most dominant for all the groups and seems to be highest at 565.48 pg/g lipid in composite Batissa violacea from Fiji. For PBDE no.47 in comparing all samples, the composite Batissa violacea from Fiji had the highest level of 118.20 pg/g lipid. Based upon this study, the contamination levels found in the study species were quite lower compared with levels reported in impacted ecosystems around the world

Keywords: polychlorinated biphenyl, polybrominated diphenylethers, pesticides, organoclorinated pesticides, PBDEs

Procedia PDF Downloads 355
112 Comparative Assessment of Heavy Metals Influence on Growth of Silver Catfish (Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus) and Tilapia Fish (Oreochromis niloticus) Collected from Brackish and Freshwater, South-West, Nigeria

Authors: Atilola O. Abidemi-Iromini, Oluayo A. Bello-Olusoji, Immanuel A. Adebayo

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Ecological studies were carried out in Asejire Reservoir (AR) and Lagos Lagoon (LL), Southwest Nigeria from January 2012 to December 2013 to determine the health status of Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus (CN) and Oreochromis niloticus (ON). The fish species samples were collected every month, these were separated into sexes, and growth pattern {length, (cm); weight (g), Isometric index, condition factor} were measured. Heavy metals (lead (Pb), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), and chromium (Cr) in ppm concentrations were also determined while bacteria occurrence(s), (load and prevalence) on fish skins, gills and intestine in the two ecological zones were determined. The fish ratio collected is in range with normal aquatic (1: 1+) male: female ratio. Growth assessment determined revealed no significant difference in length and weight in O. niloticus between locations, but a significant difference in weight occurred in C. nigrodigitatus between locations, with a higher weight (196.06 ±0.16 g) from Lagos Lagoon. Highest condition factor (5.25) was recorded in Asejire Reservoir O. niloticus, (ARON); and lowest condition factor (1.64) was observed in Asejire Reservoir C. nigrodigitatus (ARCN); as this indicated a negative allometric value which is normal in Bagridae species because it increases more in Length to weight gain than for the Cichlidae growth status. Normal growth rate (K > 1) occurred between sexes, with the male species having higher K - factors than female species within locations, between locations, between species, and within species, except for female C. nigrodigitatus having higher condition factor (K = 1.75) than male C. nigrodigitatus (K = 1.54) in Asejire Reservoir. The highest isometric value (3.05) was recorded in Asejire Reservoir O. niloticus and lowest in Lagos Lagoon C. nigrodigitatus. Male O. niloticus from Asejire Reservoir had highest isometric value, and O. niloticus species had higher condition factor which ranged between isometric (b ≤ 3) and positive allometric (b > 3), hence, denoted robustness of fish to grow more in weight than in length; while C. nigrodigitatus fish has negative allometric (b < 3) indicating fish add more length than in weight on growth. The status of condition factors and isometric values obtained is species-specific, and environmental influence, food availability or reproduction factor may as well be contributing factors. The concentrations of heavy metals in fish flesh revealed that Zn (6.52 ±0.82) had the highest, while Cr (0.01±0.00) was ranked lowest; for O. niloticus in Asejire Reservoir. In Lagos Lagoon, heavy metals concentration level revealed that O. niloticus flesh had highest in Zn (4.71±0.25) and lowest in Pb (0.01±0.00). Lagos Lagoon C. nigrodigitatus heavy metal concentration level revealed Zn (9.56±0.96) had highest, while Cr (0.06±0.01) had lowest; and Asejire Reservoir C. nigrodigitatus heavy metal level revealed that Zn (8.26 ±0.74) had highest, and Cr (0.08±0.00) had lowest. In all, Zinc (Zn) was top-ranked in level among species.

Keywords: Oreochromis niloticus, growth status, Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus, environments, heavy metals

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111 Effect of Temperature on the Permeability and Time-Dependent Change in Thermal Volume of Bentonite Clay During the Heating-Cooling Cycle

Authors: Nilufar Chowdhury, Fereydoun Najafian Jazi, Omid Ghasemi-Fare

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The thermal effect on soil properties induces significant variations in hydraulic conductivity, which is attributable to temperature-dependent transitions in soil properties. With the elevation of temperature, there can be a notable increase in intrinsic permeability due to the degeneration of bound water molecules into a free state facilitated by thermal energy input. Conversely, thermal consolidation may cause a reduction in intrinsic permeability as soil particles undergo densification. This thermal response of soil permeability exhibits pronounced heterogeneity across different soil types. Furthermore, this temperature-induced disruption of the bound water within clay matrices can enhance the mineral-to-mineral contact, initiating irreversible deformation within the clay structure. This indicates that when soil undergoes heating-cooling cycles, plastic strain can develop, which needs to be investigated for every soil type to understand the thermo-hydro mechanical behavior of clay properly. This research aims to study the effect of the heating-cooling cycle on the intrinsic permeability and time-dependent evaluation of thermal volume change of sodium Bentonite clay. A temperature-controlled triaxial permeameter cell is used in this study. The selected temperature is 20° C, 40° C, 40° C and 80° C. The hydraulic conductivity of Bentonite clay under 100 kPa confining stresses was measured. Hydraulic conductivity analysis was performed on a saturated sample for a void ratio e = 0.9, corresponding to a dry density of 1.2 Mg/m3. Different hydraulic gradients were applied between the top and bottom of the sample to obtain a measurable flow through the sample. The hydraulic gradient used for the experiment was 4000. The diameter and thickness of the sample are 101. 6 mm, and 25.4 mm, respectively. Both for heating and cooling, the hydraulic conductivity at each temperature is measured after the flow reaches the steady state condition to make sure the volume change due to thermal loading is stabilized. Thus, soil specimens were kept at a constant temperature during both the heating and cooling phases for at least 10-18 days to facilitate the equilibration of hydraulic transients. To assess the influence of temperature-induced volume changes of Bentonite clay, the evaluation of void ratio change during this time period has been monitored. It is observed that the intrinsic permeability increases by 30-40% during the heating cycle. The permeability during the cooling cycle is 10-12% lower compared to the permeability observed during the heating cycle at a particular temperature. This reduction in permeability implies a change in soil fabric due to the thermal effect. An initial increase followed by a rapid decrease in void ratio was observed, representing the occurrence of possible osmotic swelling phenomena followed by thermal consolidation. It has been observed that after a complete heating-cooling cycle, there is a significant change in the void ratio compared to the initial void ratio of the sample. The results obtained suggest that Bentonite clay’s microstructure can change subject to a complete heating-cooling process, which regulates macro behavior such as the permeability of Bentonite clay.

Keywords: bentonite, permeability, temperature, thermal volume change

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110 Probabilistic Study of Impact Threat to Civil Aircraft and Realistic Impact Energy

Authors: Ye Zhang, Chuanjun Liu

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In-service aircraft is exposed to different types of threaten, e.g. bird strike, ground vehicle impact, and run-way debris, or even lightning strike, etc. To satisfy the aircraft damage tolerance design requirements, the designer has to understand the threatening level for different types of the aircraft structures, either metallic or composite. Exposing to low-velocity impacts may produce very serious internal damages such as delaminations and matrix cracks without leaving visible mark onto the impacted surfaces for composite structures. This internal damage can cause significant reduction in the load carrying capacity of structures. The semi-probabilistic method provides a practical and proper approximation to establish the impact-threat based energy cut-off level for the damage tolerance evaluation of the aircraft components. Thus, the probabilistic distribution of impact threat and the realistic impact energy level cut-offs are the essential establishments required for the certification of aircraft composite structures. A new survey of impact threat to civil aircraft in-service has recently been carried out based on field records concerning around 500 civil aircrafts (mainly single aisles) and more than 4.8 million flight hours. In total 1,006 damages caused by low-velocity impact events had been screened out from more than 8,000 records including impact dents, scratches, corrosions, delaminations, cracks etc. The impact threat dependency on the location of the aircraft structures and structural configuration was analyzed. Although the survey was mainly focusing on the metallic structures, the resulting low-energy impact data are believed likely representative to general civil aircraft, since the service environments and the maintenance operations are independent of the materials of the structures. The probability of impact damage occurrence (Po) and impact energy exceedance (Pe) are the two key parameters for describing the statistic distribution of impact threat. With the impact damage events from the survey, Po can be estimated as 2.1x10-4 per flight hour. Concerning the calculation of Pe, a numerical model was developed using the commercial FEA software ABAQUS to backward estimate the impact energy based on the visible damage characteristics. The relationship between the visible dent depth and impact energy was established and validated by drop-weight impact experiments. Based on survey results, Pe was calculated and assumed having a log-linear relationship versus the impact energy. As the product of two aforementioned probabilities, Po and Pe, it is reasonable and conservative to assume Pa=PoxPe=10-5, which indicates that the low-velocity impact events are similarly likely as the Limit Load events. Combing Pa with two probabilities Po and Pe obtained based on the field survey, the cutoff level of realistic impact energy was estimated and valued as 34 J. In summary, a new survey was recently done on field records of civil aircraft to investigate the probabilistic distribution of impact threat. Based on the data, two probabilities, Po and Pe, were obtained. Considering a conservative assumption of Pa, the cutoff energy level for the realistic impact energy has been determined, which provides potential applicability in damage tolerance certification of future civil aircraft.

Keywords: composite structure, damage tolerance, impact threat, probabilistic

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109 Pesticides Monitoring in Surface Waters of the São Paulo State, Brazil

Authors: Fabio N. Moreno, Letícia B. Marinho, Beatriz D. Ruiz, Maria Helena R. B. Martins

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Brazil is a top consumer of pesticides worldwide, and the São Paulo State is one of the highest consumers among the Brazilian federative states. However, representative data about the occurrence of pesticides in surface waters of the São Paulo State is scarce. This paper aims to present the results of pesticides monitoring executed within the Water Quality Monitoring Network of CETESB (The Environmental Agency of the São Paulo State) between the 2018-2022 period. Surface water sampling points (21 to 25) were selected within basins of predominantly agricultural land-use (5 to 85% of cultivated areas). The samples were collected throughout the year, including high-flow and low-flow conditions. The frequency of sampling varied between 6 to 4 times per year. Selection of pesticide molecules for monitoring followed a prioritizing process from EMBRAPA (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation) databases of pesticide use. Pesticides extractions in aqueous samples were performed according to USEPA 3510C and 3546 methods following quality assurance and quality control procedures. Determination of pesticides in water (ng L-1) extracts were performed by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS) and by gas chromatography with nitrogen phosphorus (GC-NPD) and electron capture detectors (GC-ECD). The results showed higher frequencies (20- 65%) in surface water samples for Carbendazim (fungicide), Diuron/Tebuthiuron (herbicides) and Fipronil/Imidaclopride (insecticides). The frequency of observations for these pesticides were generally higher in monitoring points located in sugarcane cultivated areas. The following pesticides were most frequently quantified above the Aquatic life benchmarks for freshwater (USEPA Office of Pesticide Programs, 2023) or Brazilian Federal Regulatory Standards (CONAMA Resolution no. 357/2005): Atrazine, Imidaclopride, Carbendazim, 2,4D, Fipronil, and Chlorpiryfos. Higher median concentrations for Diuron and Tebuthiuron in the rainy months (october to march) indicated pesticide transport through surface runoff. However, measurable concentrations in the dry season (april to september) for Fipronil and Imidaclopride also indicates pathways related to subsurface or base flow discharge after pesticide soil infiltration and leaching or dry deposition following pesticide air spraying. With exception to Diuron, no temporal trends related to median concentrations of the most frequently quantified pesticides were observed. These results are important to assist policymakers in the development of strategies aiming at reducing pesticides migration to surface waters from agricultural areas. Further studies will be carried out in selected points to investigate potential risks as a result of pesticides exposure on aquatic biota.

Keywords: pesticides monitoring, são paulo state, water quality, surface waters

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108 Urban Seismic Risk Reduction in Algeria: Adaptation and Application of the RADIUS Methodology

Authors: Mehdi Boukri, Mohammed Naboussi Farsi, Mounir Naili, Omar Amellal, Mohamed Belazougui, Ahmed Mebarki, Nabila Guessoum, Brahim Mezazigh, Mounir Ait-Belkacem, Nacim Yousfi, Mohamed Bouaoud, Ikram Boukal, Aboubakr Fettar, Asma Souki

Abstract:

The seismic risk to which the urban centres are more and more exposed became a world concern. A co-operation on an international scale is necessary for an exchange of information and experiments for the prevention and the installation of action plans in the countries prone to this phenomenon. For that, the 1990s was designated as 'International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)' by the United Nations, whose interest was to promote the capacity to resist the various natural, industrial and environmental disasters. Within this framework, it was launched in 1996, the RADIUS project (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster), whose the main objective is to mitigate seismic risk in developing countries, through the development of a simple and fast methodological and operational approach, allowing to evaluate the vulnerability as well as the socio-economic losses, by probable earthquake scenarios in the exposed urban areas. In this paper, we will present the adaptation and application of this methodology to the Algerian context for the seismic risk evaluation in urban areas potentially exposed to earthquakes. This application consists to perform an earthquake scenario in the urban centre of Constantine city, located at the North-East of Algeria, which will allow the building seismic damage estimation of this city. For that, an inventory of 30706 building units was carried out by the National Earthquake Engineering Research Centre (CGS). These buildings were digitized in a data base which comprises their technical information by using a Geographical Information system (GIS), and then they were classified according to the RADIUS methodology. The study area was subdivided into 228 meshes of 500m on side and Ten (10) sectors of which each one contains a group of meshes. The results of this earthquake scenario highlights that the ratio of likely damage is about 23%. This severe damage results from the high concentration of old buildings and unfavourable soil conditions. This simulation of the probable seismic damage of the building and the GIS damage maps generated provide a predictive evaluation of the damage which can occur by a potential earthquake near to Constantine city. These theoretical forecasts are important for decision makers in order to take the adequate preventive measures and to develop suitable strategies, prevention and emergency management plans to reduce these losses. They can also help to take the adequate emergency measures in the most impacted areas in the early hours and days after an earthquake occurrence.

Keywords: seismic risk, mitigation, RADIUS, urban areas, Algeria, earthquake scenario, Constantine

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107 Disability in the Course of a Chronic Disease: The Example of People Living with Multiple Sclerosis in Poland

Authors: Milena Trojanowska

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Disability is a phenomenon for which meanings and definitions have evolved over the decades. This became the trigger to start a project to answer the question of what disability constitutes in the course of an incurable chronic disease. The chosen research group are people living with multiple sclerosis.The contextual phase of the research was participant observation at the Polish Multiple Sclerosis Society, the largest NGO in Poland supporting people living with MS and their relatives. The research techniques used in the project are (in order of implementation): group interviews with people living with MS and their relatives, narrative interviews, asynchronous technique, participant observation during events organised for people living with MS and their relatives.The researcher is currently conducting follow-up interviews, as inaccuracies in the respondents' narratives were identified during the data analysis. Interviews and supplementary research techniques were used over the four years of the research, and the researcher also benefited from experience gained from 12 years of working with NGOs (diaries, notes). The research was carried out in Poland with the participation of people living in this country only.The research has been based on grounded theory methodology in a constructivist perspectivedeveloped by Kathy Charmaz. The goal was to follow the idea that research must be reliable, original, and useful. The aim was to construct an interpretive theory that assumes temporality and the processualityof social life. TheAtlas.ti software was used to collect research material and analyse it. It is a program from the CAQDAS(Computer-Assisted Qualitative Data Analysis Software) group.Several key factors influencing the construction of a disability identity by people living with multiple sclerosis was identified:-course of interaction with significant relatives,- the expectation of identification with disability (expressed by close relatives),- economic profitability (pension, allowances),- institutional advantages (e.g. parking card),- independence and autonomy (not equated with physical condition, but access to adapted infrastructure and resources to support daily functioning),- the way a person with MS construes the meaning of disability,- physical and mental state,- medical diagnosis of illness.In addition, it has been shown that making an assumption about the experience of disability in the course of MS is a form of cognitive reductionism leading to further phenomenon such as: the expectation of the person with MS to construct a social identity as a person with a disability (e.g. giving up work), the occurrence of institutional inequalities. It can also be a determinant of the choice of a life strategy that limits social and individual functioning, even if this necessity is not influenced by the person's physical or psychological condition.The results of the research are important for the development of knowledge about the phenomenon of disability. It indicates the contextuality and complexity of the disability phenomenon, which in the light of the research is a set of different phenomenon of heterogeneous nature and multifaceted causality. This knowledge can also be useful for institutions and organisations in the non-governmental sector supporting people with disabilities and people living with multiple sclerosis.

Keywords: disability, multiple sclerosis, grounded theory, poland

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106 Liquefaction Phenomenon in the Kathmandu Valley during the 2015 Earthquake of Nepal

Authors: Kalpana Adhikari, Mandip Subedi, Keshab Sharma, Indra P. Acharya

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The Gorkha Nepal earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 struck the central region of Nepal on April 25, 2015 with the epicenter about 77 km northwest of Kathmandu Valley . Peak ground acceleration observed during the earthquake was 0.18g. This motion induced several geotechnical effects such as landslides, foundation failures liquefaction, lateral spreading and settlement, and local amplification. An aftershock of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.3 hit northeast of Kathmandu on May 12 after 17 days of main shock caused additional damages. Kathmandu is the largest city in Nepal, have a population over four million. As the Kathmandu Valley deposits are composed mainly of sand, silt and clay layers with a shallow ground water table, liquefaction is highly anticipated. Extensive liquefaction was also observed in Kathmandu Valley during the 1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake. Field investigations were carried out in Kathmandu Valley immediately after Mw 7.8, April 25 main shock and Mw 7.3, May 12 aftershock. Geotechnical investigation of both liquefied and non-liquefied sites were conducted after the earthquake. This paper presents observations of liquefaction and liquefaction induced damage, and the liquefaction potential assessment based on Standard Penetration Tests (SPT) for liquefied and non-liquefied sites. SPT based semi-empirical approach has been used for evaluating liquefaction potential of the soil and Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) has been used to determine liquefaction probability. Recorded ground motions from the event are presented. Geological aspect of Kathmandu Valley and local site effect on the occurrence of liquefaction is described briefly. Observed liquefaction case studies are described briefly. Typically, these are sand boils formed by freshly ejected sand forced out of over-pressurized sub-strata. At most site, sand was ejected to agricultural fields forming deposits that varied from millimetres to a few centimeters thick. Liquefaction-induced damage to structures in these areas was not significant except buildings on some places tilted slightly. Boiled soils at liquefied sites were collected and the particle size distributions of ejected soils were analyzed. SPT blow counts and the soil profiles at ten liquefied and non-liquefied sites were obtained. The factors of safety against liquefaction with depth and liquefaction potential index of the ten sites were estimated and compared with observed liquefaction after 2015 Gorkha earthquake. The liquefaction potential indices obtained from the analysis were found to be consistent with the field observation. The field observations along with results from liquefaction assessment were compared with the existing liquefaction hazard map. It was found that the existing hazard maps are unrepresentative and underestimate the liquefaction susceptibility in Kathmandu Valley. The lessons learned from the liquefaction during this earthquake are also summarized in this paper. Some recommendations are also made to the seismic liquefaction mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley.

Keywords: factor of safety, geotechnical investigation, liquefaction, Nepal earthquake

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105 Understanding the Impact of Out-of-Sequence Thrust Dynamics on Earthquake Mitigation: Implications for Hazard Assessment and Disaster Planning

Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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104 Cytotoxicity and Genotoxicity of Glyphosate and Its Two Impurities in Human Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells

Authors: Marta Kwiatkowska, Paweł Jarosiewicz, Bożena Bukowska

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Glyphosate (N-phosphonomethylglycine) is a non-selected broad spectrum ingredient in the herbicide (Roundup) used for over 35 years for the protection of agricultural and horticultural crops. Glyphosate was believed to be environmentally friendly but recently, a large body of evidence has revealed that glyphosate can negatively affect on environment and humans. It has been found that glyphosate is present in the soil and groundwater. It can also enter human body which results in its occurrence in blood in low concentrations of 73.6 ± 28.2 ng/ml. Research conducted for potential genotoxicity and cytotoxicity can be an important element in determining the toxic effect of glyphosate. Due to regulation of European Parliament 1107/2009 it is important to assess genotoxicity and cytotoxicity not only for the parent substance but also its impurities, which are formed at different stages of production of major substance – glyphosate. Moreover verifying, which of these compounds are more toxic is required. Understanding of the molecular pathways of action is extremely important in the context of the environmental risk assessment. In 2002, the European Union has decided that glyphosate is not genotoxic. Unfortunately, recently performed studies around the world achieved results which contest decision taken by the committee of the European Union. World Health Organization (WHO) in March 2015 has decided to change the classification of glyphosate to category 2A, which means that the compound is considered to "probably carcinogenic to humans". This category relates to compounds for which there is limited evidence of carcinogenicity to humans and sufficient evidence of carcinogenicity on experimental animals. That is why we have investigated genotoxicity and cytotoxicity effects of the most commonly used pesticide: glyphosate and its impurities: N-(phosphonomethyl)iminodiacetic acid (PMIDA) and bis-(phosphonomethyl)amine on human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), mostly lymphocytes. DNA damage (analysis of DNA strand-breaks) using the single cell gel electrophoresis (comet assay) and ATP level were assessed. Cells were incubated with glyphosate and its impurities: PMIDA and bis-(phosphonomethyl)amine at concentrations from 0.01 to 10 mM for 24 hours. Evaluating genotoxicity using the comet assay showed a concentration-dependent increase in DNA damage for all compounds studied. ATP level was decreased to zero as a result of using the highest concentration of two investigated impurities, like bis-(phosphonomethyl)amine and PMIDA. Changes were observed using the highest concentration at which a person can be exposed as a result of acute intoxication. Our survey leads to a conclusion that the investigated compounds exhibited genotoxic and cytotoxic potential but only in high concentrations, to which people are not exposed environmentally. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Polish National Science Centre (Contract-2013/11/N/NZ7/00371), MSc Marta Kwiatkowska, project manager.

Keywords: cell viability, DNA damage, glyphosate, impurities, peripheral blood mononuclear cells

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103 Climate Change Impact on Whitefly (Bemisia tabaci) Population Infesting Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentus) in Sub-Himalayan India and Their Sustainable Management Using Biopesticides

Authors: Sunil Kumar Ghosh

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Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentus L.) is an annual vegetable crop grown in the sub-Himalayan region of north east India throughout the year except rainy season in normal field cultivation. The crop is susceptible to various insect pests of which whitefly (Bemesia tabaci Genn.) causes heavy damage. Thus, a study on its occurrence and sustainable management is needed for successful cultivation. The pest was active throughout the growing period. During 38th standard week to 41st standard week that is during 3rd week of September to 2nd week of October minimum population was observed. The maximum population level was maintained during 11th standard week to 18th standard week that is during 2nd week of March to 3rd week of March with peak population (0.47/leaf) was recorded. Weekly population counts on white fly showed non-significant negative correlation (p=0.05) with temperature and weekly total rainfall where as significant negative correlation with relative humidity. Eight treatments were taken to study the management of the white fly pest such as botanical insecticide azadirachtin botanical extracts, Spilanthes paniculata flower, Polygonum hydropiper L. flower, tobacco leaf and garlic and mixed formulation like neem and floral extract of Spilanthes were evaluated and compared with the ability of acetamiprid. The insectide acetamiprid was found most lethal against whitefly providing 76.59% suppression, closely followed by extracts of neem + Spilanthes providing 62.39% suppression. Spectophotometric scanning of crude methanolic extract of Polygonum flower showed strong absorbance wave length between 645-675 nm. Considering the level of peaks of wave length the flower extract contain some important chemicals like Spirilloxanthin, Quercentin diglycoside, Quercentin 3-O-rutinoside, Procyanidin B1 and Isorhamnetin 3-O-rutinoside. These chemicals are responsible for pest control. Spectophotometric scanning of crude methanolic extract of Spilanthes flower showed strong absorbance wave length between 645-675 nm. Considering the level of peaks of wave length the flower extract contain some important chemicals of which polysulphide compounds are important and responsible of pest control. Neem and Spilanthes individually did not produce good results but when used as a mixture they recorded better results. Highest yield (30.15 t/ha) were recorded from acetamiprid treated plots followed by neem + Spilanthes (27.55 t/ha). Azadirachtin and Plant extracts are biopesticides having less or no hazardous effects on human health and environment. Thus they can be incorporated in IPM programmes and organic farming in vegetable cultivation.

Keywords: biopesticides, organic farming, seasonal fluctuation, vegetable IPM

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102 The Dynamics of a Droplet Spreading on a Steel Surface

Authors: Evgeniya Orlova, Dmitriy Feoktistov, Geniy Kuznetsov

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Spreading of a droplet over a solid substrate is a key phenomenon observed in the following engineering applications: thin film coating, oil extraction, inkjet printing, and spray cooling of heated surfaces. Droplet cooling systems are known to be more effective than film or rivulet cooling systems. It is caused by the greater evaporation surface area of droplets compared with the film of the same mass and wetting surface. And the greater surface area of droplets is connected with the curvature of the interface. Location of the droplets on the cooling surface influences on the heat transfer conditions. The close distance between the droplets provides intensive heat removal, but there is a possibility of their coalescence in the liquid film. The long distance leads to overheating of the local areas of the cooling surface and the occurrence of thermal stresses. To control the location of droplets is possible by changing the roughness, structure and chemical composition of the surface. Thus, control of spreading can be implemented. The most important characteristic of spreading of droplets on solid surfaces is a dynamic contact angle, which is a function of the contact line speed or capillary number. However, there is currently no universal equation, which would describe the relationship between these parameters. This paper presents the results of the experimental studies of water droplet spreading on metal substrates with different surface roughness. The effect of the droplet growth rate and the surface roughness on spreading characteristics was studied at low capillary numbers. The shadow method using high speed video cameras recording up to 10,000 frames per seconds was implemented. A droplet profile was analyzed by Axisymmetric Drop Shape Analyses techniques. According to change of the dynamic contact angle and the contact line speed three sequential spreading stages were observed: rapid increase in the dynamic contact angle; monotonous decrease in the contact angle and the contact line speed; and form of the equilibrium contact angle at constant contact line. At low droplet growth rate, the dynamic contact angle of the droplet spreading on the surfaces with the maximum roughness is found to increase throughout the spreading time. It is due to the fact that the friction force on such surfaces is significantly greater than the inertia force; and the contact line is pinned on microasperities of a relief. At high droplet growth rate the contact angle decreases during the second stage even on the surfaces with the maximum roughness, as in this case, the liquid does not fill the microcavities, and the droplet moves over the “air cushion”, i.e. the interface is a liquid/gas/solid system. Also at such growth rates pulsation of liquid flow was detected; and the droplet oscillates during the spreading. Thus, obtained results allow to conclude that it is possible to control spreading by using the surface roughness and the growth rate of droplets on surfaces as varied factors. Also, the research findings may be used for analyzing heat transfer in rivulet and drop cooling systems of high energy equipment.

Keywords: contact line speed, droplet growth rate, dynamic contact angle, shadow system, spreading

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101 Application of Unstructured Mesh Modeling in Evolving SGE of an Airport at the Confluence of Multiple Rivers in a Macro Tidal Region

Authors: A. A. Purohit, M. M. Vaidya, M. D. Kudale

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Among the various developing countries in the world like China, Malaysia, Korea etc., India is also developing its infrastructures in the form of Road/Rail/Airports and Waterborne facilities at an exponential rate. Mumbai, the financial epicenter of India is overcrowded and to relieve the pressure of congestion, Navi Mumbai suburb is being developed on the east bank of Thane creek near Mumbai. The government due to limited space at existing Mumbai Airports (domestic and international) to cater for the future demand of airborne traffic, proposes to build a new international airport near Panvel at Navi Mumbai. Considering the precedence of extreme rainfall on 26th July 2005 and nearby townships being in a low-lying area, wherein new airport is proposed, it is inevitable to study this complex confluence area from a hydrodynamic consideration under both tidal and extreme events (predicted discharge hydrographs), to avoid inundation of the surrounding due to the proposed airport reclamation (1160 hectares) and to determine the safe grade elevation (SGE). The model studies conducted using the application of unstructured mesh to simulate the Panvel estuarine area (93 km2), calibration, validation of a model for hydraulic field measurements and determine the maxima water levels around the airport for various extreme hydrodynamic events, namely the simultaneous occurrence of highest tide from the Arabian Sea and peak flood discharges (Probable Maximum Precipitation and 26th July 2005) from five rivers, the Gadhi, Kalundri, Taloja, Kasadi and Ulwe, meeting at the proposed airport area revealed that: (a) The Ulwe River flowing beneath the proposed airport needs to be diverted. The 120m wide proposed Ulwe diversion channel having a wider base width of 200 m at SH-54 Bridge on the Ulwe River along with the removal of the existing bund in Moha Creek is inevitable to keep the SGE of the airport to a minimum. (b) The clear waterway of 80 m at SH-54 Bridge (Ulwe River) and 120 m at Amra Marg Bridge near Moha Creek is also essential for the Ulwe diversion and (c) The river bank protection works on the right bank of Gadhi River between the NH-4B and SH-54 bridges as well as upstream of the Ulwe River diversion channel are essential to avoid inundation of low lying areas. The maxima water levels predicted around the airport keeps SGE to a minimum of 11m with respect to Chart datum of Ulwe Bundar and thus development is not only technologically-economically feasible but also sustainable. The unstructured mesh modeling is a promising tool to simulate complex extreme hydrodynamic events and provides a reliable solution to evolve optimal SGE of airport.

Keywords: airport, hydrodynamics, safe grade elevation, tides

Procedia PDF Downloads 244
100 Linguistic Analysis of Borderline Personality Disorder: Using Language to Predict Maladaptive Thoughts and Behaviours

Authors: Charlotte Entwistle, Ryan Boyd

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Recent developments in information retrieval techniques and natural language processing have allowed for greater exploration of psychological and social processes. Linguistic analysis methods for understanding behaviour have provided useful insights within the field of mental health. One area within mental health that has received little attention though, is borderline personality disorder (BPD). BPD is a common mental health disorder characterised by instability of interpersonal relationships, self-image and affect. It also manifests through maladaptive behaviours, such as impulsivity and self-harm. Examination of language patterns associated with BPD could allow for a greater understanding of the disorder and its links to maladaptive thoughts and behaviours. Language analysis methods could also be used in a predictive way, such as by identifying indicators of BPD or predicting maladaptive thoughts, emotions and behaviours. Additionally, associations that are uncovered between language and maladaptive thoughts and behaviours could then be applied at a more general level. This study explores linguistic characteristics of BPD, and their links to maladaptive thoughts and behaviours, through the analysis of social media data. Data were collected from a large corpus of posts from the publicly available social media platform Reddit, namely, from the ‘r/BPD’ subreddit whereby people identify as having BPD. Data were collected using the Python Reddit API Wrapper and included all users which had posted within the BPD subreddit. All posts were manually inspected to ensure that they were not posted by someone who clearly did not have BPD, such as people posting about a loved one with BPD. These users were then tracked across all other subreddits of which they had posted in and data from these subreddits were also collected. Additionally, data were collected from a random control group of Reddit users. Disorder-relevant behaviours, such as self-harming or aggression-related behaviours, outlined within Reddit posts were coded to by expert raters. All posts and comments were aggregated by user and split by subreddit. Language data were then analysed using the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) 2015 software. LIWC is a text analysis program that identifies and categorises words based on linguistic and paralinguistic dimensions, psychological constructs and personal concern categories. Statistical analyses of linguistic features could then be conducted. Findings revealed distinct linguistic features associated with BPD, based on Reddit posts, which differentiated these users from a control group. Language patterns were also found to be associated with the occurrence of maladaptive thoughts and behaviours. Thus, this study demonstrates that there are indeed linguistic markers of BPD present on social media. It also implies that language could be predictive of maladaptive thoughts and behaviours associated with BPD. These findings are of importance as they suggest potential for clinical interventions to be provided based on the language of people with BPD to try to reduce the likelihood of maladaptive thoughts and behaviours occurring. For example, by social media tracking or engaging people with BPD in expressive writing therapy. Overall, this study has provided a greater understanding of the disorder and how it manifests through language and behaviour.

Keywords: behaviour analysis, borderline personality disorder, natural language processing, social media data

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99 The Asymptotic Hole Shape in Long Pulse Laser Drilling: The Influence of Multiple Reflections

Authors: Torsten Hermanns, You Wang, Stefan Janssen, Markus Niessen, Christoph Schoeler, Ulrich Thombansen, Wolfgang Schulz

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In long pulse laser drilling of metals, it can be demonstrated that the ablation shape approaches a so-called asymptotic shape such that it changes only slightly or not at all with further irradiation. These findings are already known from ultra short pulse (USP) ablation of dielectric and semiconducting materials. The explanation for the occurrence of an asymptotic shape in long pulse drilling of metals is identified, a model for the description of the asymptotic hole shape numerically implemented, tested and clearly confirmed by comparison with experimental data. The model assumes a robust process in that way that the characteristics of the melt flow inside the arising melt film does not change qualitatively by changing the laser or processing parameters. Only robust processes are technically controllable and thus of industrial interest. The condition for a robust process is identified by a threshold for the mass flow density of the assist gas at the hole entrance which has to be exceeded. Within a robust process regime the melt flow characteristics can be captured by only one model parameter, namely the intensity threshold. In analogy to USP ablation (where it is already known for a long time that the resulting hole shape results from a threshold for the absorbed laser fluency) it is demonstrated that in the case of robust long pulse ablation the asymptotic shape forms in that way that along the whole contour the absorbed heat flux density is equal to the intensity threshold. The intensity threshold depends on the special material and radiation properties and has to be calibrated be one reference experiment. The model is implemented in a numerical simulation which is called AsymptoticDrill and requires such a few amount of resources that it can run on common desktop PCs, laptops or even smart devices. Resulting hole shapes can be calculated within seconds what depicts a clear advantage over other simulations presented in literature in the context of industrial every day usage. Against this background the software additionally is equipped with a user-friendly GUI which allows an intuitive usage. Individual parameters can be adjusted using sliders while the simulation result appears immediately in an adjacent window. A platform independent development allow a flexible usage: the operator can use the tool to adjust the process in a very convenient manner on a tablet during the developer can execute the tool in his office in order to design new processes. Furthermore, at the best knowledge of the authors AsymptoticDrill is the first simulation which allows the import of measured real beam distributions and thus calculates the asymptotic hole shape on the basis of the real state of the specific manufacturing system. In this paper the emphasis is placed on the investigation of the effect of multiple reflections on the asymptotic hole shape which gain in importance when drilling holes with large aspect ratios.

Keywords: asymptotic hole shape, intensity threshold, long pulse laser drilling, robust process

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98 Monitoring of Vector Mosquitors of Diseases in Areas of Energy Employment Influence in the Amazon (Amapa State), Brazil

Authors: Ribeiro Tiago Magalhães

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Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of a hydroelectric power plant in the state of Amapá, and to present the results obtained by dimensioning the diversity of the main mosquito vectors involved in the transmission of pathogens that cause diseases such as malaria, dengue and leishmaniasis. Methodology: The present study was conducted on the banks of the Araguari River, in the municipalities of Porto Grande and Ferreira Gomes in the southern region of Amapá State. Nine monitoring campaigns were conducted, the first in April 2014 and the last in March 2016. The selection of the catch sites was done in order to prioritize areas with possible occurrence of the species considered of greater importance for public health and areas of contact between the wild environment and humans. Sampling efforts aimed to identify the local vector fauna and to relate it to the transmission of diseases. In this way, three phases of collection were established, covering the schedules of greater hematophageal activity. Sampling was carried out using Shannon Shack and CDC types of light traps and by means of specimen collection with the hold method. This procedure was carried out during the morning (between 08:00 and 11:00), afternoon-twilight (between 15:30 and 18:30) and night (between 18:30 and 22:00). In the specific methodology of capture with the use of the CDC equipment, the delimited times were from 18:00 until 06:00 the following day. Results: A total of 32 species of mosquitoes was identified, and a total of 2,962 specimens was taxonomically subdivided into three genera (Culicidae, Psychodidae and Simuliidae) Psorophora, Sabethes, Simulium, Uranotaenia and Wyeomyia), besides those represented by the family Psychodidae that due to the morphological complexities, allows the safe identification (without the method of diaphanization and assembly of slides for microscopy), only at the taxonomic level of subfamily (Phlebotominae). Conclusion: The nine monitoring campaigns carried out provided the basis for the design of the possible epidemiological structure in the areas of influence of the Cachoeira Caldeirão HPP, in order to point out among the points established for sampling, which would represent greater possibilities, according to the group of identified mosquitoes, of disease acquisition. However, what should be mainly considered, are the future events arising from reservoir filling. This argument is based on the fact that the reproductive success of Culicidae is intrinsically related to the aquatic environment for the development of its larvae until adulthood. From the moment that the water mirror is expanded in new environments for the formation of the reservoir, a modification in the process of development and hatching of the eggs deposited in the substrate can occur, causing a sudden explosion in the abundance of some genera, in special Anopheles, which holds preferences for denser forest environments, close to the water portions.

Keywords: Amazon, hydroelectric, power, plants

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97 Profiling of Bacterial Communities Present in Feces, Milk, and Blood of Lactating Cows Using 16S rRNA Metagenomic Sequencing

Authors: Khethiwe Mtshali, Zamantungwa T. H. Khumalo, Stanford Kwenda, Ismail Arshad, Oriel M. M. Thekisoe

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Ecologically, the gut, mammary glands and bloodstream consist of distinct microbial communities of commensals, mutualists and pathogens, forming a complex ecosystem of niches. The by-products derived from these body sites i.e. faeces, milk and blood, respectively, have many uses in rural communities where they aid in the facilitation of day-to-day household activities and occasional rituals. Thus, although livestock rearing plays a vital role in the sustenance of the livelihoods of rural communities, it may serve as a potent reservoir of different pathogenic organisms that could have devastating health and economic implications. This study aimed to simultaneously explore the microbial profiles of corresponding faecal, milk and blood samples from lactating cows using 16S rRNA metagenomic sequencing. Bacterial communities were inferred through the Divisive Amplicon Denoising Algorithm 2 (DADA2) pipeline coupled with SILVA database v138. All downstream analyses were performed in R v3.6.1. Alpha-diversity metrics showed significant differences between faeces and blood, faeces and milk, but did not vary significantly between blood and milk (Kruskal-Wallis, P < 0.05). Beta-diversity metrics on Principal Coordinate Analysis (PCoA) and Non-Metric Dimensional Scaling (NMDS) clustered samples by type, suggesting that microbial communities of the studied niches are significantly different (PERMANOVA, P < 0.05). A number of taxa were significantly differentially abundant (DA) between groups based on the Wald test implemented in the DESeq2 package (Padj < 0.01). The majority of the DA taxa were significantly enriched in faeces than in milk and blood, except for the genus Anaplasma, which was significantly enriched in blood and was, in turn, the most abundant taxon overall. A total of 30 phyla, 74 classes, 156 orders, 243 families and 408 genera were obtained from the overall analysis. The most abundant phyla obtained between the three body sites were Firmicutes, Bacteroidota, and Proteobacteria. A total of 58 genus-level taxa were simultaneously detected between the sample groups, while bacterial signatures of at least 8 of these occurred concurrently in corresponding faeces, milk and blood samples from the same group of animals constituting a pool. The important taxa identified in this study could be categorized into four potentially pathogenic clusters: i) arthropod-borne; ii) food-borne and zoonotic; iii) mastitogenic and; iv) metritic and abortigenic. This study provides insight into the microbial composition of bovine faeces, milk, and blood and its extent of overlapping. It further highlights the potential risk of disease occurrence and transmission between the animals and the inhabitants of the sampled rural community, pertaining to their unsanitary practices associated with the use of cattle by-products.

Keywords: microbial profiling, 16S rRNA, NGS, feces, milk, blood, lactating cows, small-scale farmers

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96 Prosodic Transfer in Foreign Language Learning: A Phonetic Crosscheck of Intonation and F₀ Range between Italian and German Native and Non-Native Speakers

Authors: Violetta Cataldo, Renata Savy, Simona Sbranna

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Background: Foreign Language Learning (FLL) is characterised by prosodic transfer phenomena regarding pitch accents placement, intonation patterns, and pitch range excursion from the learners’ mother tongue to their Foreign Language (FL) which suggests that the gradual development of general linguistic competence in FL does not imply an equally correspondent improvement of the prosodic competence. Topic: The present study aims to monitor the development of prosodic competence of learners of Italian and German throughout the FLL process. The primary object of this study is to investigate the intonational features and the f₀ range excursion of Italian and German from a cross-linguistic perspective; analyses of native speakers’ productions point out the differences between this pair of languages and provide models for the Target Language (TL). A following crosscheck compares the L2 productions in Italian and German by non-native speakers to the Target Language models, in order to verify the occurrence of prosodic interference phenomena, i.e., type, degree, and modalities. Methodology: The subjects of the research are university students belonging to two groups: Italian native speakers learning German as FL and German native speakers learning Italian as FL. Both of them have been divided into three subgroups according to the FL proficiency level (beginners, intermediate, advanced). The dataset consists of wh-questions placed in situational contexts uttered in both speakers’ L1 and FL. Using a phonetic approach, analyses have considered three domains of intonational contours (Initial Profile, Nuclear Accent, and Terminal Contour) and two dimensions of the f₀ range parameter (span and level), which provide a basis for comparison between L1 and L2 productions. Findings: Results highlight a strong presence of prosodic transfer phenomena affecting L2 productions in the majority of both Italian and German learners, irrespective of their FL proficiency level; the transfer concerns all the three domains of the contour taken into account, although with different modalities and characteristics. Currently, L2 productions of German learners show a pitch span compression on the domain of the Terminal Contour compared to their L1 towards the TL; furthermore, German learners tend to use lower pitch range values in deviation from their L1 when improving their general linguistic competence in Italian FL proficiency level. Results regarding pitch range span and level in L2 productions by Italian learners are still in progress. At present, they show a similar tendency to expand the pitch span and to raise the pitch level, which also reveals a deviation from the L1 possibly in the direction of German TL. Conclusion: Intonational features seem to be 'resistant' parameters to which learners appear not to be particularly sensitive. By contrast, they show a certain sensitiveness to FL pitch range dimensions. Making clear which the most resistant and the most sensitive parameters are when learning FL prosody could lay groundwork for the development of prosodic trainings thanks to which learners could finally acquire a clear and natural pronunciation and intonation.

Keywords: foreign language learning, German, Italian, L2 prosody, pitch range, transfer

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95 Web-Based Instructional Program to Improve Professional Development: Recommendations and Standards for Radioactive Facilities in Brazil

Authors: Denise Levy, Gian M. A. A. Sordi

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This web based project focuses on continuing corporate education and improving workers' skills in Brazilian radioactive facilities throughout the country. The potential of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) shall contribute to improve the global communication in this very large country, where it is a strong challenge to ensure high quality professional information to as many people as possible. The main objective of this system is to provide Brazilian radioactive facilities a complete web-based repository - in Portuguese - for research, consultation and information, offering conditions for learning and improving professional and personal skills. UNIPRORAD is a web based system to offer unified programs and inter-related information about radiological protection programs. The content includes the best practices for radioactive facilities in order to meet both national standards and international recommendations published by different organizations over the past decades: International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN). The website counts on concepts, definitions and theory about optimization and ionizing radiation monitoring procedures. Moreover, the content presents further discussions related to some national and international recommendations, such as potential exposure, which is currently one of the most important research fields in radiological protection. Only two publications of ICRP develop expressively the issue and there is still a lack of knowledge of fail probabilities, for there are still uncertainties to find effective paths to quantify probabilistically the occurrence of potential exposures and the probabilities to reach a certain level of dose. To respond to this challenge, this project discusses and introduces potential exposures in a more quantitative way than national and international recommendations. Articulating ICRP and AIEA valid recommendations and official reports, in addition to scientific papers published in major international congresses, the website discusses and suggests a number of effective actions towards safety which can be incorporated into labor practice. The WEB platform was created according to corporate public needs, taking into account the development of a robust but flexible system, which can be easily adapted to future demands. ICTs provide a vast array of new communication capabilities and allow to spread information to as many people as possible at low costs and high quality communication. This initiative shall provide opportunities for employees to increase professional skills, stimulating development in this large country where it is an enormous challenge to ensure effective and updated information to geographically distant facilities, minimizing costs and optimizing results.

Keywords: distance learning, information and communication technology, nuclear science, radioactive facilities

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94 Impact of Lined and Unlined Water Bodies on the Distribution and Abundance of Fresh Water Snails in Certain Governorates in Egypt

Authors: Nahed Mohamed Ismail, Bayomy Mostafa, Ahmed Abdel Kader, Ahmed Mohamed Azzam

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Effect of lining watercourses on the distribution and abundance of fresh water snails at two Egyptian governorates, Baheria (new reclaimed area) and Giza was studied. Seasonal survey in lined and unlined sites during two successive years was carried out. Samples of snails and water were collected from each examined site and the ecological conditions were recorded. The collected snails from each site were placed in plastic aquaria and transferred to the laboratory, where they were sorted out, identified, counted and examined for natural infection. The size frequency distribution was calculated for each snail species. Results revealed that snails were represented in all examined watercourses (lined and unlined) at the two tested habitats by 14 species. (Biomphalaria alexandrina, B. glabrata, Bulinus truncatus, Physa acuta. Helisoma duryi, Lymnaea natalensis, Planorbis planorbis, Cleopatra bulimoids, Lanistes carinatus, Bellamya unicolor, Melanoides tuberculata, Theodoxus nilotica, Succinia cleopatra and Gabbiella senaarensis). During spring, the percentage of live (45%) and dead (55%) snail species was extremely highly significant lower (p>0.001) in lined water bodies compared to the unlined ones (93.5% and 6.5%, respectively) in the examined sites at Baheria. At Giza, the percentage values of live snail species from all lined watercourses (82.6% and 60.2%, during winter and spring, respectively) was significantly lower (p>0.05 & p>0.01) than those in unlined ones (91.1% and 79%, respectively). Size frequency distribution of snails collected from the lined and unlined water bodies at Baheria and Giza governorates during all seasons revealed that during survey, snail populations were stable and the recruitment of young to adult was continuing for some species, where the recruits were observed with adults. However, there was no sign of small snails occurrence in case of B. glabrata and B. alexandrina during autumn, winter and spring and disappear during summer at Giza. Meanwhile they completely absent during all seasons at Baheria Governorate. Chemical analysis of some heavy metals of water samples collected from lined and unlined sites from Baheria and Giza governorates during autumn, winter and spring were approximately as the same in both lined and unlined water bodies. However, Zn and Fe were higher in lined sites (0.78±0.37and 17.4 ± 4.3, respectively) than that of unlined ones (0.4±0.1 and 10.95 ± 1.93, respectively) and Cu was absent in both lined and unlined sites during summer at Baheria governorate. At Giza, Cu and Pb were absent and Fe were higher in lined sites (4.7± 4.2) than that of unlined ones (2.5 ± 1.4) during summer. Statistical analysis showed that no significant difference in all physico-chemical parameters of water in lined and unlined water bodies at the two tested habitats during all seasons. However, it was found that the water conductivity and TDS showed a lower mean values in lined sites than those of unlined ones. Thus, the present obtained data support the concept of utilizing environmental modification such as lining of water courses to help in minimizing the population density of certain vector snails and consequently reduce the transmission of snails born diseases.

Keywords: lining, fresh water, snails, watercourses

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93 Social Implementation of Information Sharing Road Safety Measure in South-East Asia

Authors: Hiroki Kikuchi, Atsushi Fukuda, Hirokazu Akahane, Satoru Kobayakawa, Tuenjai Fukuda, Takeru Miyokawa

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According to WHO reports, fatalities by road traffic accidents in many countries of South-East Asia region especially Thailand and Malaysia are increasing year by year. In order to overcome these serious problems, both governments are focusing on road safety measures. In response, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) of Japan and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) have begun active support based on the experiences to reduce the number of fatalities in road accidents in Japan in the past. However, even if the successful road safety measures in Japan is adopted in South-East Asian countries, it is not sure whether it will work well or not. So, it is necessary to clarify the issues and systematize the process for the implementation of road safety measures in South-East Asia. On the basis of the above, this study examined the applicability of "information sharing traffic safety measure" which is one of the successful road safety measures in Japan to the social implementation of road safety measures in South-East Asian countries. The "Information sharing traffic safety measure" is carried out traffic safety measures by stakeholders such as residents, administration, and experts jointly. In this study, we extracted the issues of implementation of road safety measures under local context firstly. This is clarifying the particular issues with its implementation in South-East Asian cities. Secondly, we considered how to implement road safety measures for solving particular issues based on the method of "information sharing traffic safety measure". In the implementation method, the location of the occurrence of a dangerous event was extracted based on the “HIYARI-HATTO” data which were obtained from the residents. This is because it is considered that the implementation of the information sharing traffic safety measure focusing on the location where the dangerous event occurs leads to the reduction of traffic accidents. Also, the target locations for the implementation of measures differ for each city. In Penang, we targeted the intersections in the downtown, while in Suphan Buri, we targeted mainly traffic control on the intercity highway. Finally, we proposed a method for implementing traffic safety measures. For Penang, we proposed a measure to improve the signal phase and showed the effect of the measure on the micro traffic simulation. For Suphan Buri, we proposed the suitable measures for the danger points extracted by collecting the “HIYARI-HATTO” data of residents to the administration. In conclusion, in order to successfully implement the road safety measure based on the "information sharing traffic safety measure", the process for social implementation of the road safety measures should be consistent and carried out repeatedly. In particular, by clarifying specific issues based on local context in South-East Asian countries, the stakeholders, not only such as government sectors but also local citizens can share information regarding road safety and select appropriate countermeasures. Finally, we could propose this approach to the administration that had the authority.

Keywords: information sharing road safety measure, social implementation, South-East Asia, HIYARI-HATTO

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92 Valorization of Surveillance Data and Assessment of the Sensitivity of a Surveillance System for an Infectious Disease Using a Capture-Recapture Model

Authors: Jean-Philippe Amat, Timothée Vergne, Aymeric Hans, Bénédicte Ferry, Pascal Hendrikx, Jackie Tapprest, Barbara Dufour, Agnès Leblond

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The surveillance of infectious diseases is necessary to describe their occurrence and help the planning, implementation and evaluation of risk mitigation activities. However, the exact number of detected cases may remain unknown whether surveillance is based on serological tests because identifying seroconversion may be difficult. Moreover, incomplete detection of cases or outbreaks is a recurrent issue in the field of disease surveillance. This study addresses these two issues. Using a viral animal disease as an example (equine viral arteritis), the goals were to establish suitable rules for identifying seroconversion in order to estimate the number of cases and outbreaks detected by a surveillance system in France between 2006 and 2013, and to assess the sensitivity of this system by estimating the total number of outbreaks that occurred during this period (including unreported outbreaks) using a capture-recapture model. Data from horses which exhibited at least one positive result in serology using viral neutralization test between 2006 and 2013 were used for analysis (n=1,645). Data consisted of the annual antibody titers and the location of the subjects (towns). A consensus among multidisciplinary experts (specialists in the disease and its laboratory diagnosis, epidemiologists) was reached to consider seroconversion as a change in antibody titer from negative to at least 32 or as a three-fold or greater increase. The number of seroconversions was counted for each town and modeled using a unilist zero-truncated binomial (ZTB) capture-recapture model with R software. The binomial denominator was the number of horses tested in each infected town. Using the defined rules, 239 cases located in 177 towns (outbreaks) were identified from 2006 to 2013. Subsequently, the sensitivity of the surveillance system was estimated as the ratio of the number of detected outbreaks to the total number of outbreaks that occurred (including unreported outbreaks) estimated using the ZTB model. The total number of outbreaks was estimated at 215 (95% credible interval CrI95%: 195-249) and the surveillance sensitivity at 82% (CrI95%: 71-91). The rules proposed for identifying seroconversion may serve future research. Such rules, adjusted to the local environment, could conceivably be applied in other countries with surveillance programs dedicated to this disease. More generally, defining ad hoc algorithms for interpreting the antibody titer could be useful regarding other human and animal diseases and zoonosis when there is a lack of accurate information in the literature about the serological response in naturally infected subjects. This study shows how capture-recapture methods may help to estimate the sensitivity of an imperfect surveillance system and to valorize surveillance data. The sensitivity of the surveillance system of equine viral arteritis is relatively high and supports its relevance to prevent the disease spreading.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, capture-recapture, epidemiology, equine viral arteritis, infectious disease, seroconversion, surveillance

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