Search results for: threat modelling

Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Josef Navrátil

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Natural or human made disasters have a significant negative impact on the environment. At the same time there is an extensive effort to support management and decision making in emergency situations by information technologies. Therefore the purpose of the paper is to propose a design patterns applicable in emergency management, enabling better analysis and design of emergency management processes and therefore easier development and deployment of information systems in the field of emergency management. It will be achieved by detailed analysis of existing emergency management legislation, contingency plans, and information systems. The result is a set of design patterns focused at emergency management processes that enable easier design of emergency plans or development of new information system. These results will have a major impact on the development of new information systems as well as to more effective and faster solving of emergencies.

Keywords: analysis and design, Business Process Modelling Notation, contingency plans, design patterns, emergency management

Procedia PDF Downloads 484

Authors: Bryan Low

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In the coming decades, the global maritime industry will face a most formidable environmental challenge -achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. To meet this target, the Maritime Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has worked to establish green shipping and digital corridors with ports of several other countries around the world where ships will use low-carbon alternative fuels such as ammonia for power generation. While this paradigm shift to the bunkering of greener fuels is encouraging, fuels like ammonia will also introduce a new and unique type of environmental risk in the unlikely scenario of a spill. While numerous modelling studies have been conducted for oil spills and their associated environmental impact on coastal and marine ecosystems, ammonia spills are comparatively less well understood. For example, there is a knowledge gap regarding how the complex hydrodynamic conditions of the Singapore Straits may influence the dispersion of a hypothetical ammonia plume, which has different physical and chemical properties compared to an oil slick. Chemically, ammonia can be absorbed by phytoplankton, thus altering the balance of the marine nitrogen cycle. Biologically, ammonia generally serves the role of a nutrient in coastal ecosystems at lower concentrations. However, at higher concentrations, it has been found to be toxic to many local species. It may also have the potential to trigger eutrophication and harmful algal blooms (HABs) in coastal waters, depending on local hydrodynamic conditions. Thus, the key objective of this research paper is to support the development of a model-based forecasting system that can predict ammonia plume behaviour in coastal waters, given prevailing hydrodynamic conditions and their environmental impact. This will be essential as ammonia bunkering becomes more commonplace in Singapore’s ports and around the world. Specifically, this system must be able to assess the HAB-triggering potential of an ammonia plume, as well as its lethal and sub-lethal toxic effects on local species. This will allow the relevant authorities to better plan risk mitigation measures or choose a time window with the ideal hydrodynamic conditions to conduct ammonia bunkering operations with minimal risk. In this paper, we present the first part of such a forecasting system: a jointly coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model that can capture how advection-diffusion processes driven by ocean currents influence plume behaviour and how the plume interacts with the marine nitrogen cycle. The model is then applied to various ammonia spill scenarios where the results are discussed in the context of current ammonia toxicity guidelines, impact on local ecosystems, and mitigation measures for future bunkering operations conducted in the Singapore Straits.

Keywords: ammonia bunkering, forecasting, harmful algal blooms, hydrodynamics, marine nitrogen cycle, oceanography, water quality modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Nader Al-Rashidi, David Greenhalgh

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Mathematical modelling techniques are now being used by health organizations worldwide to help understand the likely impact that intervention strategies treatment options and combinations of these have on the prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the people who inject drugs (PWID) population. In this poster, we develop a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model to approximate the spread of the HCV in a PWID population that has been divided into two groups by time since onset of injection. The model assumes that after injection needles adopt the most infectious state of their previous state or that of the PWID who last injected with them. Using analytical techniques, we find that the model behaviour is determined by the basic reproductive number R₀, where R₀ = 1 is a critical threshold separating two different outcomes. The disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R₀ ≤ 1 and unstable if R₀ > 1. Additionally, we make some simulations where have confirmed that the model tends to this endemic equilibrium value with realistic parameter values giving an HCV prevalence.

Keywords: hepatitis C, people who inject drugs, HCV, PWID

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Authors: A. S. Zgalei, B. T. Al-Mabrouk

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With a particularly significant growth rate observed in the Libyan commercial and residential buildings coupled with a growth in energy demand, solar desiccant evaporative cooling offers energy savings and promises a good sharing for sustainable buildings where the availability of solar radiation matches with the cooling load demand. The paper presents a short introduction for the desiccant systems. A mathematical model of a selected system has been developed and a simulation has been performed in order to investigate the system performance at different working conditions and an optimum design of the system structure is established. The results showed a technical feasibility of the system working under the Libyan climatic conditions with a reasonable COP at temperatures that can be obtained through the solar reactivation system. Discussion of the results and the recommendations for future work are proposed.

Keywords: computer program, solar desiccant wheel cooling, system modelling, simulation, technical feasibility

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Authors: Sabria Barka, Imen Gdara, Zouhour Ouanès, Samia Mouelhi, Monia El Bour, Amel Hamza-Chaffai

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Because dams are large semi-closed reservoirs of pollutants originating from numerous anthropogenic activities, they represent a threat to aquatic life and they should be monitored. The present work aims to use freshwater zooplankton (Copepods and Cladocerans) in order to evaluate the environmental health status of Bir M'cherga dam in Tunisia. Animals were collected in situ monthly between October and August. Genotoxicity (micronucleus test), neurotoxicity (acetylcholinesterase, AChE) and oxidative stress (catalase, CAT and malondialdehyde, MDA) biomarkers were analyzed in zooplankton. High frequencies of micronucleus were observed in zooplankton cells during summer. AChE activities were inhibited during early winter and summer. CAT and MDA biomarker levels showed high seasonal variability, suggesting that animals are permanently exposed to multiple oxidative stress. The results of this study suggest that the Bir Mcherga dam is subject to continuous multi-origin stress, probably amplified by abiotic parameters. It is then recommended to urgently monitor freshwater environments in Tunisia, especially those used for irrigation and consumption.

Keywords: Biomonitoring, Bir Mcherga Dam, cladocerans, copepods, freshwater zooplankton, genotoxicity, neurotoxicity, oxidative stress, Tunisia

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Authors: Salma El Aimani

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Freshwater is an essential material in our daily life; its availability is on the decline due to population growth and climate change. To meet the demand for fresh water in regions where reserves are insufficient, several countries have adopted seawater desalination. Several physical methods allow the production of fresh water from seawater; among these methods are distillation and reverse osmosis, and there is great potential to use renewable energy sources such as solar Photovoltaics. The work presented in this paper consists of three parts. First, the generalities of desalination technologies will be presented. The second part is devoted to the presentation of different water desalination systems combined with renewable energy and their benefits and drawbacks on different sides. In the third part, we will perform a modeling of a PV water desalination system under Matlab Simulink software. Then, according to the obtained simulation results, we conclude this paper with the prospects of the presented work.

Keywords: reverse-osmosis, desalination, modelling, ‎irradiation, Matlab

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Hubert Pun

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When a manufacturer outsources the production of a product, it distributes its intellectual property (IP) into a supply chain that it may not be able to fully control. An IP agreement between a manufacturer and its suppliers is a popular solution to address the challenge of supplier-copycatting. The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of copycatting, from both the supplier and third-party firms, and the effectiveness of an IP agreement. Specifically, we use a game-theoretic approach to examine a system where a manufacturer outsources to a supplier. The supplier and a third-party firm decide whether or not to enter the market with copycat products while the manufacturer selects the level of marketing investment. The manufacturer can reduce the threat of supplier-copycatting by signing an IP agreement. We find that the manufacturer can be worse off from signing an IP agreement with its supplier, even if the IP agreement is costless and perfectly enforceable. We show that a manufacturer can deter copycat products through vertical integration and IP agreements and we outline the instances where each method is preferred. Furthermore, we find that the manufacturer may choose not to invest in quality improvements as a copycat deterrence strategy. We show that the supplier can benefit from the manufacturer’s decision to sign an IP agreement and that the supplier and the consumers can benefit from government regulations against copycat products. Our paper demonstrates the strengths and limitations of various copycat deterrence strategies when a supplier and third-party may produce copycat products.

Keywords: coopetitive supply chain, copycat, government regulation, intellectual property

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Authors: Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević, Lidija R. Jevrić, Stela Jokić

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The subject of this paper is to correlate antibacterial behavior of benzimidazole derivatives with their molecular characteristics using chemometric QSAR (Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationships) approach. QSAR analysis has been carried out on the inhibitory activity of benzimidazole derivatives against Staphylococcus aureus. The data were processed by linear least squares (LLS) and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures. The LLS mathematical models have been developed as a calibration models for prediction of the inhibitory activity. The quality of the models was validated by leave one out (LOO) technique and by using external data set. High agreement between experimental and predicted inhibitory acivities indicated the good quality of the derived models. These results are part of the CMST COST Action No. CM1306 "Understanding Movement and Mechanism in Molecular Machines".

Keywords: Antibacterial, benzimidazoles, chemometric, QSAR.

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Authors: A. Bouchakour, L. Zaghba, M. Brahami, A. Borni

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The work presented in this paper present the design and the simulation of a centrifugal pump coupled to a photovoltaic (PV) generator via a MPPT controller. The PV system operating is just done in sunny period by using water storage instead of electric energy storage. The process concerns the modelling, identification and simulation of a photovoltaic pumping system, the centrifugal pump is driven by an asynchronous three-phase voltage inverter sine triangle PWM motor through. Two configurations were simulated. For the first, it is about the alimentation of the motor pump group from electrical power supply. For the second, the pump unit is connected directly to the photovoltaic panels by integration of a MPPT control. A code of simulation of the solar pumping system was initiated under the Matlab-Simulink environment. Very convivial and flexible graphic interfaces allow an easy use of the code and knowledge of the effects of change of the sunning and temperature on the pumping system.

Keywords: photovoltaic generator, chopper, electrical motor, centrifugal pump

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Authors: Zhao Pengcheng, Yin Siyuan

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Fintech is the new hot topic of the 21st century, a discipline that combines financial theory with computer modelling. It can provide both digital analysis methods for investment banks and investment decisions for users. Given the variety of services available, it is necessary to provide a superior method of requirements elicitation to ensure that users' needs are addressed in the software development process. The accuracy of traditional software requirements elicitation methods is not sufficient, so this study attempts to use a multi-perspective based requirements heuristic framework. Methods such as interview and questionnaire combination, card sorting, and model driven are proposed. The collection results from PCA show that the new methods can better help with requirements elicitation. However, the method has some limitations and, there are some efficiency issues. However, the research in this paper provides a good theoretical extension that can provide researchers with some new research methods and perspectives viewpoints.

Keywords: requirement elicitation, FinTech, mobile application, survey, interview, model-driven

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Authors: Li̇zan Mahmood Khorsheed Zangana

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Experimental and numerical investigations have been carried out to study the mechanism of separation energy and flow phenomena in the counter-flow vortex tube. This manuscript presents a complete comparison between the experimental investigation and CFD analysis. The experimental model tested under different inlet pressures. Three-dimensional numerical modelling using the k-ε model. The results show any increase in both cold mass fraction and inlet pressure caused to increase ΔTc, and the maximum ΔTc value occurs at P = 6 bar. The coefficient of performance (COP) of two important factors in the vortex tube have been evaluated, which ranged from 0.25 to 0.74. The maximum axial velocity is 93, where it occurs at the tube axis close the inlet exit (Z/L=0.2). The results showed a good agreement for experimental and numerical analysis.

Keywords: counter flow, vortex tube, computational fluid dynamics analysis, energy separation, experimental study

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Authors: Ivana Bulog, Ana Rimac Smiljanić, Sandra Pepur

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The financial fragility of households has received increased attention following the recent health crisis, which has created uncertainty and caused increased levels of stress and consequently impaired individual and family well-being. Job losses and/or reduced wages and insecurity increased the number of people that were unable to meet unexpected expenses, which, in many cases, led to increased household debt levels. This presents a threat to the stability of the financial system and the whole economy; therefore, reducing financial fragility and improving financial literacy present challenges for academicians, practitioners, and policymakers. Concerning financial fragility, significant research attention has been devoted to financial knowledge and financial literacy. However, apart from specific knowledge, personal characteristics are of great importance in making financial decisions in the household. Self-efficacy is one of the personal non-cognitive attributes that is a valuable framework for understanding how household financial decisions are made. Thus, this research proposes that individual levels of financial literacy and self-efficacy are related to the indebtedness and financial instability of the household. The primary data were collected using a structured, self-administered online questionnaire, and a snowball sampling method was applied to reach the participants. Preliminary results confirm our assumptions on the influence of financial literacy and self-efficacy on household financial stability.

Keywords: financial literacy, self-efficacy, household financial fragility, well-being

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Authors: Fabrizio Ascione, Martina Borrelli, Rosa Francesca De Masi, Silvia Ruggiero, Giuseppe Peter Vanoli

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The Directive 2010/31/EC 'Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 may 2010 on the energy performance of buildings' moved the targets of the previous version toward more ambitious targets, for instance by establishing that, by 31 December 2020, all new buildings should demand nearly zero-energy. Moreover, the demonstrative role of public buildings is strongly affirmed so that also the target nearly zero-energy buildings is anticipated, in January 2019. On the other hand, given the very low turn-over rate of buildings (in Europe, it ranges between 1-3%/yearly), each policy that does not consider the renovation of the existing building stock cannot be effective in the short and medium periods. According to this proposal, the study provides a novel, holistic approach to design the refurbishment of educational buildings in colder cities of Mediterranean regions enabling stakeholders to understand the uncertainty to use numerical modelling and the real environmental and economic impacts of adopting some energy efficiency technologies. The case study is a university building of Molise region in the centre of Italy. The proposed approach is based on the application of the cost-optimal methodology as it is shown in the Delegate Regulation 244/2012 and Guidelines of the European Commission, for evaluating the cost-optimal level of energy performance with a macroeconomic approach. This means that the refurbishment scenario should correspond to the configuration that leads to lowest global cost during the estimated economic life-cycle, taking into account not only the investment cost but also the operational costs, linked to energy consumption and polluting emissions. The definition of the reference building has been supported by various in-situ surveys, investigations, evaluations of the indoor comfort. Data collection can be divided into five categories: 1) geometrical features; 2) building envelope audit; 3) technical system and equipment characterization; 4) building use and thermal zones definition; 5) energy building data. For each category, the required measures have been indicated with some suggestions for the identifications of spatial distribution and timing of the measurements. With reference to the case study, the collected data, together with a comparison with energy bills, allowed a proper calibration of a numerical model suitable for the hourly energy simulation by means of EnergyPlus. Around 30 measures/packages of energy, efficiency measure has been taken into account both on the envelope than regarding plant systems. Starting from results, two-point will be examined exhaustively: (i) the importance to use validated models to simulate the present performance of building under investigation; (ii) the environmental benefits and the economic implications of a deep energy refurbishment of the educational building in cold climates.

Keywords: energy simulation, modelling calibration, cost-optimal retrofit, university building

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

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Authors: Alaa A. Osman, Amgad M. Bayoumy Aly, Ismail El baialy, Osama E. Abdellatif, Essam E. Khallil

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In this paper, a numerical simulation of a finned store separating from a wing-pylon configuration has been studied and validated. A dynamic unstructured tetrahedral mesh approach is accomplished by using three grid sizes to numerically solving the discretized three dimensional, inviscid and compressible Navier-stokes equations. The method used for computations of separation of an external store assuming quasi-steady flow condition. Computations of quasi-steady flow have been directly coupled to a six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) rigid-body motion code to generate store trajectories. The pressure coefficients at four different angular cuts and time histories of various trajectory parameters during the store separation are compared for every grid size with published experimental data.

Keywords: CFD modelling, transonic store separation, quasi-steady flow, moving-body trajectories

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Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

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This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption, in Romania. Both techno-economic and consumer behavior approaches have been considered, in order to develop the model. The proposed model aims to reduce the energy consumption, in households, by assembling in a unitary model, aspects concerning: residential lighting, space heating, hot water, and combined space heating – hot water, space cooling, and passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating domestic energy consumption model, and quantify not only technical-economic issues, but also consumer behavior impact, related to people decision to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: consumer behavior, open source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model, virtual technologies

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Authors: A. H. Elkholy, A. H. Falah

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A new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and stress distribution of worm gear sets. The approach is based upon considering the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness where the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using the well established formulae of spur gears. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire envolute worm gear set loading and stressing was obtained. The geometric modelling method presented, allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. On the basis of the method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share were obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analysis accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line

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Authors: Tsai-Yun Liao, Fang-Yi Hsu

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Consumer behavior and consumption patterns have changed in reacting to the threat of COVID-19 pandemic situations. In order to explore the factors affecting customers’ purchase intention under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, this research uses structural equation modeling to explore the effect of media effect, conformity, and personality on customers’ purchase intention. Four essential objectives are investigated: how does media affect the conformity and perceived value of customers; the effect of media effect, conformity, and personality on customers’ purchase intention; the moderating effect of personality; and the mediating effect of perceived value toward purchase intention. By convenience sampling method, 428 questionnaires were collected, and the total number of valid samples was 406. Data analysis and results indicate that: (1) The media effect positively affects conformity. (2) The media effect positively affects perceived value. (3) Both conformity and perceived value positively affect purchase intention. (4) Consumer’s personality of openness to experience moderates the relationship between conformity and purchase intention. (5) Media effect affects purchase intention through the mediating effect of perceived value. This study contributes to the research by providing the factors affecting customers’ purchase intention and to the enterprises by maintaining incumbent customers and attracting potential customers.

Keywords: COVID-19, media effect, conformity, personality, purchase intention

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Authors: Sajid Iqbal Sheikh

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From almost last 100 years 'political islam' has diversity in its usage as terminology in the speculative works of both muslim and non-muslims theorists. 'Political islam' as a term was coined consciously as equal to the 'militant islam' and “Terrorist Islam” vs “Plain Islam” and “Modern Islam” etc. Many paradigm shifts tamed the term into one of the hottest debate of the day. This research paper aims to categorize historical linkage of its coinage, development phases and present status. Based on content analysis, Narrative approach has been utilized for the sake of dexterous conclusion. The paper treasures out that Western dominance on civilizational and political spheres of the holistic world considers 'political islam' a gigantic threat and plans to resist it in theoretic and practical fields simultaneously. Despite minor strategic variances, the ideological followers of Syed Qutab, Mulana Mudoodi and Hasan Al-Bana, are struggling hard for the achievement of their ultimate goal of Political change, specifically in the Muslim World in the prior phase. The paper concludes that Resistance to Islamic resurgence and its Political goals is being observed in most of the Muslim world, especially in the Turkey, Algeria, Egypt, Tsunia and Yeman etc, which is a basic cause of contrary reaction in the Muslim World.

Keywords: electoral process, islamic resurgence, islamic political theory, muslim response, resistance, western hegemony

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Authors: I. A. Simsek, S. N. Dogan, A. S. Kipcak, E. Morodor Derun, N. Tugrul

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In this study, the drying characteristics of shrimp are studied by using the traditional drying method of oven. Drying temperatures are selected between 60-80°C. Obtained experimental drying results are applied to eleven mathematical models of Alibas, Aghbashlo et al., Henderson and Pabis, Jena and Das, Lewis, Logaritmic, Midilli and Kucuk, Page, Parabolic, Wang and Singh and Weibull. The best model was selected as parabolic based on the highest coefficient of determination (R²) (0.999990 at 80°C) and the lowest χ² (0.000002 at 80°C), and the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) (0.000976 at 80°C) values are compared to other models. The effective moisture diffusivity (Deff) values were calculated using the Fick’s second law’s cylindrical coordinate approximation and are found between 6.61×10⁻⁸ and 6.66×10⁻⁷ m²/s. The activation energy (Ea) was calculated using modified form of Arrhenius equation and is found as 18.315 kW/kg.

Keywords: activation energy, drying, effective moisture diffusivity, modelling, oven, shrimp

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: David A. Olasehinde, Peter I. Olasehinde, Segun M. A. Adelana, Dapo O. Olasehinde

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An investigation was carried out on underground water system dynamics within Ilorin metropolis to monitor the subsurface flow and its corresponding pollution. Africa population growth rate is the highest among the regions of the world, especially in urban areas. A corresponding increase in waste generation and a change in waste composition from predominantly organic to non-organic waste has also been observed. Percolation of leachate from non-engineered landfills, the chief means of waste disposal in many of its cities, constitutes a threat to the underground water bodies. Ilorin city, a transboundary town in southwestern Nigeria, is a ready microcosm of Africa’s unique challenge. In spite of the fact that groundwater is naturally protected from common contaminants such as bacteria as the subsurface provides natural attenuation process, groundwater samples have been noted to however possesses relatively higher dissolved chemical contaminants such as bicarbonate, sodium, and chloride which poses a great threat to environmental receptors and human consumption. The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used as a tool to illustrate, subsurface dynamics and the corresponding pollutant indicators. Forty-four sampling points were selected around known groundwater pollutant, major old dumpsites without landfill liners. The results of the groundwater flow directions and the corresponding contaminant transport were presented using expert geospatial software. The experimental results were subjected to four descriptive statistical analyses, namely: principal component analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, scree plot analysis, and Ward cluster analysis. Regression model was also developed aimed at finding functional relationships that can adequately relate or describe the behaviour of water qualities and the hypothetical factors landfill characteristics that may influence them namely; distance of source of water body from dumpsites, static water level of groundwater, subsurface permeability (inferred from hydraulic gradient), and soil infiltration. The regression equations developed were validated using the graphical approach. Underground water seems to flow from the northern portion of Ilorin metropolis down southwards transporting contaminants. Pollution pattern in the study area generally assumed a bimodal pattern with the major concentration of the chemical pollutants in the underground watershed and the recharge. The correlation between contaminant concentrations and the spread of pollution indicates that areas of lower subsurface permeability display a higher concentration of dissolved chemical content. The principal component analysis showed that conductivity, suspended solids, calcium hardness, total dissolved solids, total coliforms, and coliforms were the chief contaminant indicators in the underground water system in the study area. Pearson correlation revealed a high correlation of electrical conductivity for many parameters analyzed. In the same vein, the regression models suggest that the heavier the molecular weight of a chemical contaminant of a pollutant from a point source, the greater the pollution of the underground water system at a short distance. The study concludes that the associative properties of landfill have a significant effect on groundwater quality in the study area.

Keywords: dumpsite, leachate, groundwater pollution, linear regression, principal component

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Authors: Habib Muhammetoglu, I. Ethem Karadirek, Selami Kara, Ayse Muhammetoglu

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The problem of non-revenue water (NRW) from municipal water distribution networks is common in many countries such as Turkey, where the average yearly water losses are around 50% . Water losses can be divided into two major types namely: 1) Real or physical water losses, and 2) Apparent or commercial water losses. Total water losses in Antalya city, Turkey is around 45%. Methods: A research study was conducted to develop appropriate methodologies to reduce NRW. A pilot study area of about 60 thousands inhabitants was chosen to apply the study. The pilot study area has a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system for the monitoring and control of many water quantity and quality parameters at the groundwater drinking wells, pumping stations, distribution reservoirs, and along the water mains. The pilot study area was divided into 18 District Metered Areas (DMAs) with different number of service connections that ranged between a few connections to less than 3000 connections. The flow rate and water pressure to each DMA were on-line continuously measured by an accurate flow meter and water pressure meter that were connected to the SCADA system. Customer water meters were installed to all billed and unbilled water users. The monthly water consumption as given by the water meters were recorded regularly. Water balance was carried out for each DMA using the well-know standard IWA approach. There were considerable variations in the water losses percentages and the components of the water losses among the DMAs of the pilot study area. Old Class B customer water meters at one DMA were replaced by more accurate new Class C water meters. Hydraulic modelling using the US-EPA EPANET model was carried out in the pilot study area for the prediction of water pressure variations at each DMA. The data sets required to calibrate and verify the hydraulic model were supplied by the SCADA system. It was noticed that a number of the DMAs exhibited high water pressure values. Therefore, pressure reducing valves (PRV) with constant head were installed to reduce the pressure up to a suitable level that was determined by the hydraulic model. On the other hand, the hydraulic model revealed that the water pressure at the other DMAs cannot be reduced when complying with the minimum pressure requirement (3 bars) as stated by the related standards. Results: Physical water losses were reduced considerably as a result of just reducing water pressure. Further physical water losses reduction was achieved by applying acoustic methods. The results of the water balances helped in identifying the DMAs that have considerable physical losses. Many bursts were detected especially in the DMAs that have high physical water losses. The SCADA system was very useful to assess the efficiency level of this method and to check the quality of repairs. Regarding apparent water losses reduction, changing the customer water meters resulted in increasing water revenue by more than 20%. Conclusions: DMA, SCADA, modelling, pressure management, leakage detection and accurate customer water meters are efficient for NRW.

Keywords: NRW, water losses, pressure management, SCADA, apparent water losses, urban water distribution networks

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Authors: Olga Sukhoveeva

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main component of carbon biogeochemical cycle and one of the most important greenhouse gases (GHG). Agriculture, particularly arable soils, are one the largest sources of GHG emission for the atmosphere including CO2.Models may be used for estimation of GHG emission from agriculture if they can be adapted for different countries conditions. The only model used in officially at national level in United Kingdom and China for this purpose is DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition). In our research, the model DNDC is offered for estimation of GHG emission from arable soils in Russia. The aim of our research was to create the method of DNDC using for evaluation of CO2 emission in Russia based on official statistical information. The target territory was European part of Russia where many field experiments are located. At the first step of research the database on climate, soil and cropping characteristics for the target region from governmental, statistical, and literature sources were created. All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre provides open daily data about average meteorological and climatic conditions. It must be calculated spatial average values of maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation over the region. Spatial average values of soil characteristics (soil texture, bulk density, pH, soil organic carbon content) can be determined on the base of Union state register of soil recourses of Russia. Cropping technologies are published by agricultural research institutes and departments. We offer to define cropping system parameters (annual information about crop yields, amount and types of fertilizers and manure) on the base of the Federal State Statistics Service data. Content of carbon in plant biomass may be calculated via formulas developed and published by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation. At the second step CO2 emission from soil in this region were calculated by DNDC. Modelling data were compared with empirical and literature data and good results were obtained, modelled values were equivalent to the measured ones. It was revealed that the DNDC model may be used to evaluate and forecast the CO2 emission from arable soils in Russia based on the official statistical information. Also, it can be used for creation of the program for decreasing GHG emission from arable soils to the atmosphere. Financial Support: fundamental scientific researching theme 0148-2014-0005 No 01201352499 ‘Solution of fundamental problems of analysis and forecast of Earth climatic system condition’ for 2014-2020; fundamental research program of Presidium of RAS No 51 ‘Climate change: causes, risks, consequences, problems of adaptation and regulation’ for 2018-2020.

Keywords: arable soils, carbon dioxide emission, DNDC model, European Russia

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Junlong Shang, Zhengxian Chua, Hoongping Peh, Zhiye Zhao

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Due to scarce land resources in Singapore, it is imperative to increase water storage capacities to meet the increasing demand of water to secure a sustainable development, which can be achieved in the underground by rock caverns. In this paper, a preliminary study on the effects of cavern span, height and radius on the cavern stability is presented to provide a guidance on the cavern construction in the context of Singapore. It is found that the radius of caverns should be around half of the span width (i.e., B/R=2) to reduce vertical displacement at the crown of cavern. The smaller the rock cover, the smaller displacement. The minimum rock thickness should be at least the same as the cavern span to eliminate excessive yielded element. Finally, rock support system is introduced to maintain the profile of caverns.

Keywords: cavern dimension, numerical modelling, sustainable development, underground rock cavern

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Authors: Elke Mackensen

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Systems Engineering plays a key role during industrial product development of complex technical systems. The need for systems engineers in industry is growing. However, there is a gap between the industrial need and the academic education. Normally the academic education is focused on the domain specific design, implementation and testing of technical systems. Necessary systems engineering expertise like knowledge about requirements analysis, product cost estimation, management or social skills are poorly taught. Thus, there is the need of new academic concepts for teaching systems engineering skills. This paper presents a project-orientated training concept to prepare students from different technical degree programs for systems engineering activities. The training concept has been initially implemented and applied in the industrial engineering master program of the University of Applied Sciences Offenburg.

Keywords: educational systems engineering training, requirements analysis, system modelling, SysML

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Authors: Jyoti Jha, Asim Tewari, Sushil Mishra

Abstract:

The alpha-beta Titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) is the most common alloy in the aerospace industry. The hot workability of Ti–6Al–4V has been investigated by means of hot compression tests carried out in the 750–950 °C temperature range and 0.001–10s-1 strain rate range. Stress-strain plot obtained from the Gleeble 3800 test results show the dynamic recrystallization at temperature 950 °C. The effect of microstructural characteristics of the deformed specimens have been studied and correlated with the test temperature, total strain and strain rate. Finite element analysis in DEFORM 2D has been carried out to see the effect of flow stress parameters in different zones of deformed sample. Dynamic recrystallization simulation based on Cellular automata has been done in DEFORM 2D to simulate the effect of hardening and recovery during DRX. Simulated results well predict the grain growth and DRX in the deformed sample.

Keywords: compression test, Cellular automata, DEFORM , DRX

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Authors: Shuaibu Umar Abdul

Abstract:

This paper examines Nigeria’s foreign policy in the age of global terrorism. It worth saying that the threat of ‘terrorism’ is not peculiar to Western and Middle Eastern countries alone, its tentacles are now spreading all over, Africa inclusive. The issue of domestic terrorism in Nigeria has become pervasive since the return of democratic rule in 1999. This development has never been a witness in any form throughout the year of statehood in Nigeria, the issues of banditry, armed robbery, ritual killing, and criminal activities like kidnapping and pipeline vandalization, the breakdown of law and order, poorly managed infrastructural facilities and corruption remain synonymous to Nigeria. These acts of terrorism no doubt have constituted a challenge that necessitates the paradigm shift in Nigeria’s foreign policy. The study employed the conceptual framework of analysis to lead interrogation; secondary sources were used to generate data while descriptive and content analysis were considered for data presentation and interpretation. In view of the interrogation and discussion on the subject matter, the paper revealed that Nigerian government underrated and underestimated the strength of terrorism within and outside her policy hence, it becomes difficult to address. As a response to the findings and conclusion of the study, the paper recommends among others that Nigeria’s foreign policy has to be rethought, reshaped and remodeled in cognizance to the rising global terrorism for peace, growth and development in the country.

Keywords: foreign policy, globe, Nigeria, rethinking, terrorism

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Authors: Athmane Bakhta, Sebastien Leclaire, David Vidal, Francois Bertrand, Mohamed Cheriet

Abstract:

This work presents a new three-dimensional variational model proposed for the simulation of ink seepage into paper sheets at the fiber level. The model, inspired by the Hising model, takes into account a finite volume of ink and describes the system state through gravity, cohesion, and adhesion force interactions. At the mesoscopic scale, the paper substrate is modeled using a discretized fiber structure generated using a numerical deposition procedure. A modified Monte Carlo method is introduced for the simulation of the ink dynamics. Besides, a multiphase lattice Boltzmann method is suggested to fine-tune the mesoscopic variational model parameters, and it is shown that the ink seepage behaviors predicted by the proposed model can resemble those predicted by a method relying on first principles.

Keywords: fibrous media, lattice Boltzmann, modelling and simulation, Monte Carlo, variational model

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Authors: Ayesha Sohail, Khadija Maqbool, Anila Asif, Haroon Ahmad

Abstract:

The field of tissue engineering is an active area of research. Bone tissue engineering helps to resolve the clinical problems of critical size and non-healing defects by the creation of man-made bone tissue. We will design and validate an efficient numerical model, which will simulate the effective diffusivity in bone tissue engineering. Our numerical model will be based on the finite element analysis of the diffusion-reaction equations. It will have the ability to optimize the diffusivity, even at multi-scale, with the variation of time. It will also have a special feature, with which we will not only be able to predict the oxygen, glucose and cell density dynamics, more accurately, but will also sort the issues arising due to anisotropy. We will fix these problems with the help of modifying the governing equations, by selecting appropriate spatio-temporal finite element schemes, by adaptive grid refinement strategy and by transient analysis.

Keywords: scaffolds, porosity, diffusion, transient analysis

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Authors: Mansour Al Qubeissi, Sergei S. Sazhin, Cyril Crua, Morgan R. Heikal

Abstract:

This paper presents the application of the Discrete Component Model for heating and evaporation to multi-component biodiesel fuel droplets in direct injection internal combustion engines. This model takes into account the effects of temperature gradient, recirculation and species diffusion inside droplets. A distinctive feature of the model used in the analysis is that it is based on the analytical solutions to the temperature and species diffusion equations inside the droplets. Nineteen types of biodiesel fuels are considered. It is shown that a simplistic model, based on the approximation of biodiesel fuel by a single component or ignoring the diffusion of components of biodiesel fuel, leads to noticeable errors in predicted droplet evaporation time and time evolution of droplet surface temperature and radius.

Keywords: heat/mass transfer, biodiesel, multi-component fuel, droplet

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