Search results for: generalized additive model

Authors: M. Mohsin Munir, Taimoor Ahmad, Javed Munir, Usman Rashid

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Determination of maximum elevation of a flowing fluid due to sudden rejection of load in a hydropower facility is of great interest to hydraulic engineers to ensure safety of the hydraulic structures. Several mathematical models exist that employ one-dimensional modeling for the determination of surge but none of these perfectly simulate real-time circumstances. The paper envisages investigation of surge inception and propagation for a Low Head Hydropower project using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis on FLOW-3D software package. The fluid dynamic model utilizes its analysis for surge by employing Reynolds’ Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations (RANSE). The CFD model is designed for a case study at Taunsa hydropower Project in Pakistan. Various scenarios have run through the model keeping in view upstream boundary conditions. The prototype results were then compared with the results of physical model testing for the same scenarios. The results of the numerical model proved quite accurate coherence with the physical model testing and offers insight into phenomenon which are not apparent in physical model and shall be adopted in future for the similar low head projects limiting delays and cost incurred in the physical model testing.

Keywords: surge, FLOW-3D, numerical model, Taunsa, RANSE

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Authors: S. B. V. S. P. Sastry, V. V. S. Kesava Rao

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In this paper, x-ray impact of Taguchi method and design of experiment philosophy to project relationship between various factors leading to output yield strength of rebar is studied. In bar mill of an integrated steel plant, there are two production lines called as line 1 and line 2. The metallic properties e.g. yield strength of finished product of the same material is varying for a particular grade material when rolled simultaneously in both the lines. A study has been carried out to set the process parameters at optimal level for obtaining equal value of yield strength simultaneously for both lines.

Keywords: bar mill, design of experiment, taguchi, yield strength

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Authors: N. Tugrul, A. S. Kipcak, E. Moroydor Derun, S. Piskin

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Zinc borate is an important boron compound that can be used as multi-functional flame retardant additive due to its high dehydration temperature property. In this study, the raw materials of ZnSO4.7H2O, NaOH and H3BO3 were characterized by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) and used in the synthesis of zinc borates. The synthesis parameters were set to 100°C reaction temperature and 120 minutes of reaction time, with different molar ratio of starting materials (ZnSO4.7H2O:NaOH:H3BO3). After the zinc borate synthesis, the identifications of the products were conducted by XRD and FT-IR. As a result, Zinc Oxide Borate Hydrate [Zn3B6O12.3.5H2O], were synthesized at the molar ratios of 1:1:3, 1:1:4, 1:2:5 and 1:2:6. Among these ratios 1:2:6 had the best results.

Keywords: Zinc borate, ZnSO4.7H2O, NaOH, H3BO3, XRD, FT-IR

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Authors: Enlin Lo, Ioannis Dogaris, George Philippidis

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Succinic acid is a compound used for manufacturing lacquers, resins, and other coating chemicals. It is also used in the food and beverage industry as a flavor additive. It is predominantly manufactured from petrochemicals, but it can also be produced by fermentation of sugars from renewable feedstocks, such as plant biomass. Bio-based succinic acid has great potential in becoming a platform chemical (building block) for commodity and high-value chemicals. In this study, the production of bio-based succinic acid from sweet sorghum was investigated. Sweet sorghum has high fermentable sugar content and can be cultivated in a variety of climates. In order to avoid competition with food feedstocks, its non-edible ‘bagasse’ (the fiber part after extracting the juice) was targeted. Initially, various conditions of pretreating sweet sorghum bagasse (SSB) were studied in an effort to remove most of the non-fermentable components and expose the cellulosic fiber containing the fermentable sugars (glucose). Concentrated (83%) phosphoric acid was utilized at temperatures 50-80 oC for 30-60 min at various SSB loadings (10-15%), coupled with enzymatic hydrolysis using commercial cellulase (Ctec2, Novozymes) enzyme, to identify the conditions that lead to the highest glucose yields for subsequent fermentation to succinic acid. As the pretreatment temperature and duration increased, the bagasse color changed from light brown to dark brown-black, indicating decomposition, which ranged from 15% to 72%, while the theoretical glucose yield is 91%. With Minitab software statistical analysis, a model was built to identify the optimal pretreatment condition for maximum glucose released. The projected theoretical bio-based succinic acid production is 23g per 100g of SSB, which will be confirmed with fermentation experiments using the bacterium Actinobacillus succinogenes.

Keywords: biomass, cellulose, enzymatic hydrolysis, fermentation, pretreatment, succinic acid

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

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The current study follows an educational intervention on bottle-weaning to simultaneously evaluate the effect of the bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months. A shared parameter model and a random effects model are used to jointly model bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake. We show in the two joint models that the bottle-weaning intervention promotes bottleweaning, and reduces daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles and daily energy intake. We also show that the odds of drinking from a bottle were positively associated with the amount of milk intake from bottles and increased daily milk intake from bottles was associated with increased daily energy intake. The effect of bottle use on daily energy intake is through its effect on increasing daily milk intake from bottles that in turn increases daily energy intake.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, joint model, gamma regression, shared parameter model, random effects model

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Authors: Behzad Behnia, Noah LaRussa-Trott

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In recent years, fibers have been successfully used as an additive to reinforce asphalt concrete materials and to enhance the sustainability and resiliency of transportation infrastructure. Roads covered with fiber-reinforced asphalt concrete (FRAC) require less frequent maintenance and tend to have a longer lifespan. The present work investigates the application of sasobit-coated aramid fibers in asphalt pavements and employs machine learning to develop prediction models to evaluate the cracking performance of FRAC materials. For the experimental part of the study, the effects of several important parameters such as fiber content, fiber length, and testing temperature on fracture characteristics of FRAC mixtures were thoroughly investigated. Two mechanical performance tests, i.e., the disk-shaped compact tension [DC(T)] and indirect tensile [ID(T)] strength tests, as well as the non-destructive acoustic emission test, were utilized to experimentally measure the cracking behavior of the FRAC material in both macro and micro level, respectively. The experimental results were used to train the supervised machine learning approach in order to establish prediction models for fracture performance of the FRAC mixtures in the field. Experimental results demonstrated that adding fibers improved the overall fracture performance of asphalt concrete materials by increasing their fracture energy, tensile strength and lowering their 'embrittlement temperature'. FRAC mixtures containing long-size fibers exhibited better cracking performance than regular-size fiber mixtures. The developed prediction models of this study could be easily employed by pavement engineers in the assessment of the FRAC pavements.

Keywords: fiber reinforced asphalt concrete, machine learning, cracking performance tests, prediction model

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Authors: Hojjat Mohammadi, Randall Divito, Gary J. E. Kramer

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Tunnelling and pipe jacking in very soft soils (fat clays), even with an Earth Pressure Balance tunnel boring machine (EPBM), can cause large ground displacements. In this study, the short-term and long-term ground and tunnel response is predicted for twin, pipe-jacked EPBM 3 meter diameter tunnels with a narrow pillar width. Initial modelling indicated complete closure of the annulus gap at the tail shield onto the centrifugally cast, glass-fiber-reinforced, polymer mortar jacking pipe (FRP). Numerical modelling was employed to simulate the excavation and support installation sequence, examine the ground response during excavation, confirm the adequacy of the pillar width and check the structural adequacy of the installed pipe. In the numerical models, Mohr-Coulomb constitutive model with the effect of unloading was adopted for the fat clays, while for the bedrock layer, the generalized Hoek-Brown was employed. The numerical models considered explicit excavation sequences and different levels of ground convergence prior to support installation. The well-studied excavation sequences made the analysis possible for this study on a very soft clay, otherwise, obtaining the convergency in the numerical analysis would be impossible. The predicted results indicate that the ground displacements around the tunnel and its effect on the pipe would be acceptable despite predictions of large zones of plastic behaviour around the tunnels and within the entire pillar between them due to excavation-induced ground movements.

Keywords: finite element modeling (FEM), pipe-jacked tunneling, very soft clay, EPBM

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Authors: T. M. Ismail, M. A. El-Salam

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A mathematical model study was carried out to investigate gasification of biomass fuels using high-temperature air and steam as a gasifying agent using high-temperature air up to 1000°C. In this study, a 2D computational fluid dynamics model was developed to study the gasification process in an updraft gasifier, considering drying, pyrolysis, combustion, and gasification reactions. The gas and solid phases were resolved using a Euler−Euler multiphase approach, with exchange terms for the momentum, mass, and energy. The standard k−ε turbulence model was used in the gas phase, and the particle phase was modeled using the kinetic theory of granular flow. The results show that the present model giving a promising way in its capability and sensitivity for the parameter effects that influence the gasification process.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, gasification, biomass fuel, fixed bed gasifier

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Authors: Gül Ebru Orhun

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A half diallel crossing design was carried out during 2011 and 2012 growing seasons under Çanakkale-Turkey ecological conditions. In this research, 20 F1 maize hybrids obtained by 6x6 half diallel crossing were used. Gene action for protein content and grain yield traits were explored in half set involving six elite inbred lines. According to the results diallel analysis dominance and additive gene variances were determined for protein content. Variance/Co-variance graphs revealed for grain yield and protein content traits. In this study, inheritance of grain yield and protein content demonstrated over-dominance type of gene action.

Keywords: protein, maize, inheritance, gene action

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Authors: Dheyaa Wajid Abbood, Hanan Hussien Abood

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Stepped cascade has been utilized as a hydraulic structure for years. It has proven to be the least costly aeration system in replenishing dissolved oxygen. Numerical modeling of stepped cascade with end sill is very complicated and challenging because of the high roughness and velocity re circulation regions. Volume of fluid multiphase flow model (VOF) is used .The realizable k-ξ model is chosen to simulate turbulence. The computational results are compared with lab-scale stepped cascade data. The lab –scale model was constructed in the hydraulic laboratory, Al-Mustansiriya University, Iraq. The stepped cascade was 0.23 m wide and consisted of 3 steps each 0.2m high and 0.6 m long with variable end sill. The discharge was varied from 1 to 4 l/s. ANSYS has been employed to simulate the experimental data and their related results. This study shows that ANSYS is able to predict results almost the same as experimental findings in some regions of the structure.

Keywords: stepped cascade weir, aeration, multiphase flow model, ansys

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Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: M. Kharazmi, M. Zakeri, M. Packirisamy, J. Faraji

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Micro/Nanorobotics or manipulation of nanoparticles by Atomic Force Microscopic (AFM) is one of the most important solutions for controlling the movement of atoms, particles and micro/nano metrics components and assembling of them to design micro/nano-meter tools. Accurate modelling of manipulation requires identification of forces and mechanical knowledge in the Nanoscale which are different from macro world. Due to the importance of the adhesion forces and the interaction of surfaces at the nanoscale several friction models were presented. In this research, friction and normal forces that are applied on the AFM by using of the dynamic bending-torsion model of AFM are obtained based on Hurtado-Kim friction model (HK), Johnson-Kendall-Robert contact model (JKR) and Greenwood-Williamson roughness model (GW). Finally, the effect of standard deviation of asperities height on the normal load, friction force and friction coefficient are studied.

Keywords: atomic force microscopy, contact model, friction coefficient, Greenwood-Williamson model

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Authors: Pouya Molana, Zeinab Alimohammadi

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Determining wind wave characteristics is essential for implementing projects related to Coastal and Marine engineering such as designing coastal and marine structures, estimating sediment transport rates and coastal erosion rates in order to predict significant wave height (H_s), this study applies the third generation spectral wave model, Mike 21 SW, along with CEM model. For SW model calibration and verification, two data sets of meteorology and wave spectroscopy are used. The model was exposed to time-varying wind power and the results showed that difference ratio mean, standard deviation of difference ratio and correlation coefficient in SW model for H_s parameter are 1.102, 0.279 and 0.983, respectively. Whereas, the difference ratio mean, standard deviation and correlation coefficient in The Choice Experiment Method (CEM) for the same parameter are 0.869, 1.317 and 0.8359, respectively. Comparing these expected results it is revealed that the Choice Experiment Method CEM has more errors in comparison to MIKE 21 SW third generation spectral wave model and higher correlation coefficient does not necessarily mean higher accuracy.

Keywords: MIKE 21 SW, CEM method, significant wave height, difference ratio

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Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin

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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.

Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data

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Authors: Ashley Wei-Ting Wang, Wen-Yau Hsu

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Objectives: The current study applies and expands the Tripartite Model to elaborate the link between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal behavior. We propose a structural model of NSSI and suicidal risk, in which negative affect (NA) predicts both anxiety and depression, positive affect (PA) predicts depression only, anxiety is linked to NSSI, and depression is linked to suicidal risk. Method: Four hundreds and eighty seven undergraduates participated. Data were collected by administering self-report questionnaires. We performed hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling to test the proposed structural model. Results: The results largely support the proposed structural model, with one exception: anxiety was strongly associated with NSSI and to a lesser extent with suicidal risk. Conclusions: We conclude that the co-occurrence of NSSI and suicidal risk is due to NA and anxiety, and suicidal risk can be differentiated by depression. Further theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: non-suicidal self-injury, suicidal risk, anxiety, depression, the tripartite model, hierarchical relationship

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Authors: Shih-Kuei Lin

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The characterization of the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates is developed in this study under the presence of Markov jump risks, when the term structure of the interest rates is modeled through simple forward rates. We consider Markov jump risks by allowing randomness in jump sizes, independence between jump sizes and jump times. The Markov jump diffusion model is used to capture empirical phenomena and to accurately describe interest jump risks in a financial market. We derive the arbitrage-free model of simple forward rates under the spot measure. Moreover, the analytical pricing formulas for a cap and a floor are derived under the forward measure when the jump size follows a lognormal distribution. In our empirical analysis, we find that the LIBOR market model with Markov jump risk better accounts for changes from/to different states and different rates.

Keywords: arbitrage-free, cap and floor, Markov jump diffusion model, simple forward rate model, volatility smile, EM algorithm

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Authors: Christopher Godwin Udomboso, Angela Unna Chukwu, Isaac Kwame Dontwi

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In selecting a Statistical Neural Network model, the Network Information Criterion (NIC) has been observed to be sample biased, because it does not account for sample sizes. The selection of a model from a set of fitted candidate models requires objective data-driven criteria. In this paper, we derived and investigated the Adjusted Network Information Criterion (ANIC), based on Kullback’s symmetric divergence, which has been designed to be an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler information of a fitted model. The analyses show that on a general note, the ANIC improves model selection in more sample sizes than does the NIC.

Keywords: statistical neural network, network information criterion, adjusted network, information criterion, transfer function

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Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

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In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software

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Authors: Tareq Oshan

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Facility location and size decisions are important to any company because they affect profitability and success. However, warehouses are exposed to various risks of failure that affect their activity. This paper presents a mixed-integer non-linear mathematical model that can be used to determine optimal warehouse locations and sizes, which warehouses to fortify, and which branches should be assigned to specific warehouses when there is a risk of warehouse failure. Every branch is assigned to a fortified primary warehouse or a nonfortified primary warehouse and a fortified backup warehouse. The standard method and an introduced method, based on the average probabilities, for linearizing this mathematical model were used. A Canadian case study was used to demonstrate the developed mathematical model, followed by some sensitivity analysis.

Keywords: supply chain network design, fortified warehouse, mixed-integer mathematical model, warehouse failure risk

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Authors: Augustus K. Lebechi, Kenneth I. Ozoemena

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Rechargeable zinc-air batteries (RZABs) have been described as one of the most viable next-generation ‘beyond-the-lithium-ion’ battery technologies with great potential for renewable energy storage. It is safe, with a high specific energy density (1086 Wh/kg), environmentally benign, and low-cost, especially in resource-limited African countries. For widespread commercialization, the sluggish oxygen reaction kinetics pose a major challenge that impedes the reversibility of the system. Hence, there is a need for low-cost and highly active bifunctional electrocatalysts. Manganese oxide catalysts on carbon conducting additives remain the best couple for the realization of such low-cost RZABs. In this work, hausmannite Mn₃O₄ nanoparticles were synthesized through the annealing method from commercial electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD), multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) were synthesized via the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) method and carbon nanofibers (CNFs) were synthesized via the electrospinning process with subsequent carbonization. Both Mn₃O₄ catalysts and the carbon conducting additives (MWCNT and CNF) were thoroughly characterized using X-ray powder diffraction spectroscopy (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), thermogravimetry analysis (TGA) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). Composite electrocatalysts (Mn₃O₄/CNT and Mn₃O₄/CNF) were investigated for oxygen evolution reaction (OER) and oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in an alkaline medium. Using the established electrocatalytic modalities for evaluating the electrocatalytic performance of materials (including double layer, electrochemical active surface area, roughness factor, specific current density, and catalytic stability), CNFs proved to be the most efficient conducting additive material for the Mn₃O₄ catalyst. From the DFT calculations, the higher performance of the CNFs over the MWCNTs is related to the ability of the CNFs to allow for a more favorable distribution of the d-electrons of the manganese (Mn) and enhanced synergistic effect with Mn₃O₄ for weaker adsorption energies of the oxygen intermediates (O*, OH* and OOH*). In a proof-of-concept, Mn₃O₄/CNF was investigated as the air cathode for rechargeable zinc-air battery (RZAB) in a micro-3D-printed cell configuration. The RZAB showed good performance in terms of open circuit voltage (1.77 V), maximum power density (177.5 mW cm-2), areal-discharge energy and cycling stability comparable to Pt/C (20 wt%) + IrO2. The findings here provide fresh physicochemical perspectives on the future design and utility of CNFs for developing manganese-based RZABs.

Keywords: bifunctional electrocatalyst, oxygen evolution reaction, oxygen reduction reactions, rechargeable zinc-air batteries.

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Authors: Muhammed Ertugrul Celoglu, Beyza Furtana, Mehmet Yilmaz, Baha Vural Kok

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Biomass, which is considered to be one of the largest renewable energy sources in the world, has a potential to be utilized as a bitumen additive after it is processed by a wide variety of thermochemical methods. Furthermore, biomasses are renewable in short amounts of time, and they possess a hydrocarbon structure. These characteristics of biomass promote their usability as additives. One of the most common ways to create materials with significant economic values from biomasses is the processes of pyrolysis. Pyrolysis is defined as the process of an organic matter’s thermochemical degradation (carbonization) at a high temperature and in an anaerobic environment. The resultant liquid substance at the end of the pyrolysis is defined as bio-oil, whereas the resultant solid substance is defined as biochar. Olive pomace is the resultant mildly oily pulp with seeds after olive is pressed and its oil is extracted. It is a significant source of biomass as the waste of olive oil factories. Because olive pomace is waste material, it could create problems just as other waste unless there are appropriate and acceptable areas of utilization. The waste material, which is generated in large amounts, is generally used as fuel and fertilizer. Generally, additive materials are used in order to improve the properties of bituminous binders, and these are usually expensive materials, which are produced chemically. The aim of this study is to investigate the usability of biochars obtained after subjecting olive pomace and smashed olive seeds, which are considered as waste materials, to pyrolysis as additives in bitumen modification. In this way, various ways of use will be provided for waste material, providing both economic and environmental benefits. In this study, olive pomace and smashed olive seeds were used as sources of biomass. Initially, both materials were ground and processed through a No.50 sieve. Both of the sieved materials were subjected to pyrolysis (carbonization) at 400 ℃. Following the process of pyrolysis, bio-oil and biochar were obtained. The obtained biochars were added to B160/220 grade pure bitumen at 10% and 15% rates and modified bitumens were obtained by mixing them in high shear mixtures at 180 ℃ for 1 hour at 2000 rpm. Pure bitumen and four different types of bitumen obtained as a result of the modifications were tested with penetration, softening point, rotational viscometer, and dynamic shear rheometer, evaluating the effects of additives and the ratios of additives. According to the test results obtained, both biochar modifications at both ratios provided improvements in the performance of pure bitumen. In the comparison of the test results of the binders modified with the biochars of olive pomace and smashed olive seed, it was revealed that there was no notable difference in their performances.

Keywords: bituminous binders, biochar, biomass, olive pomace, pomace, pyrolysis

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Authors: Sara Ataei, Mohammad Bagher Oghazian, Mania Radfar

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We describe a patient with hypercalcemia associated with the injection of high doses vitamin D as supplement for a period of six months. A 76-year-old woman had been taking an intramuscular injection of vitamin D 300,000 IU every ten days for six months. She was hospitalized with symptoms of hypercalcemia: chronic constipation, unstable gait, a chronic generalized musculoskeletal pain and increased fatigue. On admission her 25 (OH) vitamin D and Calcium levels were 559 nmol/L and 13.85 mg/dL respectively, and Parathyroid Hormone (PTH) level was 7.1 pg/mL. Immediately she received diuresis therapy with saline and furosemide in conjunction with calcitonin and pamidronate. At discharge her serum calcium level was 11.5 mg/dL. To lower endogenous overproduction of calcitriol, prednisolone 20 mg/day for 10 days was administered at discharge time.

Keywords: vitamin D, hypercalcemia, vitamin D toxicity, parathyroid hormone

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Authors: Mohammed F. Haddad, Mohammad A. Albenayyan

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Realistically, 3-D printing as a technology has not yet reached the required maturity level to handle construction housing projects for citizens on a country scale. However, potentially, it has all of the required elements for addressing this issue. There are two main high-level elements of this technology that need to be capitalized on in order for the technology to reach its full potential, technical and logistical. This paper aims to cover how 3-D printing can be a viable technical solution for housing projects and describe the impact of 3-D printing technical features on the logistical aspects of completing a housing project. Additionally, a perspective about 3-D printing in Saudi Arabia will be presented in order to give the reader an idea of where the kingdom stands in the deployment of this technology. Finally, a glimpse will be given regarding the potential utilization of this technology for space applications.

Keywords: large-scale 3-D printing, additive manufacturing, D- shape, contour crafting

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Authors: Nitaya Buntao

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This paper considers the problems of interval estimation for rainfall mean of the lognormal distribution and the delta-lognormal distribution in Northeastern Thailand. We present here the modified generalized pivotal approach (MGPA) compared to the modified method of variance estimates recovery (MMOVER). The performance of each method is examined in term of coverage probabilities and average lengths by Monte Carlo simulation. An extensive simulation study indicates that the MMOVER performs better than the MGPA approach in terms of the coverage probability; it results in highly accurate coverage probability.

Keywords: rainfall mean, interval estimation, lognormal distribution, delta-lognormal distribution

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Authors: K. M. Anusha, R. Krishnaveni

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Crossing a decade of the 21st century, the paradigm of human resources can be seen evolving with the strategic gene induced into it. There seems to be a radical shift descending as the corporate sector calls on its HR team to become strategic rather than administrative. This transferal eventually requires the metrics employed by these HR teams not to be just operationally reactive but to be aligned to an evidence-based strategic thinking. Realizing the growing need for a prescriptive metric model for effective HR analytics, this study has designed a conceptual framework for a basic metric model that can assist IT-HRM professionals to transition to a practice of evidence-based decision-making to enhance organizational performance.

Keywords: metric model, evidence based HR, HR analytics, strategic HR practices, IT sector

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Authors: Nikolaos Reppas, Yilin Gui

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A dual-porosity finite element-code will be presented for the stability analysis of the wellbore during CO₂ injection. An elastoplastic damage response will be considered to the model. The Finite Element Method (FEM) will be validated using experimental results from literature or from experiments that are planned to be undertaken at Newcastle University. The main target of the research paper is to present a constitutive model that can help industries to safely store CO₂ in geological rock formations and forecast any changes on the surrounding rock of the wellbore. The fully coupled elastoplastic damage Thermo-Hydraulic-Mechanical (THM) model will determine the pressure and temperature of the injected CO₂ as well as the size of the radius of the wellbore that can make the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) procedure more efficient.

Keywords: carbon capture and storage, Wellbore stability, elastoplastic damage response for rock, constitutive THM model, fully coupled thermo-hydraulic-mechanical model

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Authors: Hesam Gholami

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Elevated suspended sediment loads in riverine systems resulting from accelerated erosion due to human activities are a serious threat to the sustainable management of watersheds and ecosystem services therein worldwide. Therefore, mitigation of deleterious sediment effects as a distributed or non-point pollution source in the catchments requires reliable provenance information. Sediment tracing or sediment fingerprinting, as a combined process consisting of sampling, laboratory measurements, different statistical tests, and the application of mixing or unmixing models, is a useful technique for discriminating the sources of sediments. From 1996 to the present, different aspects of this technique, such as grouping the sources (spatial and individual sources), discriminating the potential sources by different statistical techniques, and modification of mixing and unmixing models, have been introduced and modified by many researchers worldwide, and have been applied to identify the provenance of fine materials in agricultural, rural, mountainous, and coastal catchments, and in large catchments with numerous lakes and reservoirs. In the last two decades, efforts exploring the uncertainties associated with sediment fingerprinting results have attracted increasing attention. The frameworks used to quantify the uncertainty associated with fingerprinting estimates can be divided into three groups comprising Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian approaches and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Given the above background, the primary goal of this study was to apply geochemical fingerprinting within the GLUE framework in the estimation of sub-basin spatial sediment source contributions in the arid Mehran River catchment in southern Iran, which drains into the Persian Gulf. The accuracy of GLUE predictions generated using four different sets of statistical tests for discriminating three sub-basin spatial sources was evaluated using 10 virtual sediments (VS) samples with known source contributions using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Based on the results, the contributions modeled by GLUE for the western, central and eastern sub-basins are 1-42% (overall mean 20%), 0.5-30% (overall mean 12%) and 55-84% (overall mean 68%), respectively. According to the mean absolute fit (MAF; ≥ 95% for all target sediment samples) and goodness-of-fit (GOF; ≥ 99% for all samples), our suggested modeling approach is an accurate technique to quantify the source of sediments in the catchments. Overall, the estimated source proportions can help watershed engineers plan the targeting of conservation programs for soil and water resources.

Keywords: sediment source tracing, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation, virtual sediment mixtures, Iran

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Authors: N. Guo, C. Xu, Z. C. Yang

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In order to ensure the high reliability of an aircraft, the accurate structural dynamics analysis has become an indispensable part in the design of an aircraft structure. Therefore, the structural finite element model which can be used to accurately calculate the structural dynamics and their transfer relations is the prerequisite in structural dynamic design. A dynamic finite element model updating method is presented to correct the uncertain parameters of the finite element model of a structure using measured modal parameters. The coordinate modal assurance criterion is used to evaluate the correlation level at each coordinate over the experimental and the analytical mode shapes. Then, the weighted summation of the natural frequency residual and the coordinate modal assurance criterion residual is used as the objective function. Moreover, the hybrid pattern search (HPS) optimization technique, which synthesizes the advantages of pattern search (PS) optimization technique and genetic algorithm (GA), is introduced to solve the dynamic FE model updating problem. A numerical simulation and a model updating experiment for GARTEUR aircraft model are performed to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the present dynamic model updating method, respectively. The updated results show that the proposed method can be successfully used to modify the incorrect parameters with good robustness.

Keywords: model updating, modal parameter, coordinate modal assurance criterion, hybrid genetic/pattern search

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Authors: Jin Sung Kim, Hoon Huh

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The material properties of OFHC copper film was investigated with the High-Speed Material Micro Testing Machine (HSMMTM) at the high strain rates. The rate-dependent stress-strain curves from the experiment and the Johnson-Cook curve fitting showed large discrepancies as the plastic strain increases since the constitutive model implies no rate-dependent strain hardening effect. A new constitutive model was proposed in consideration of rate-dependent strain hardening effect. The strain rate hardening term in the new constitutive model consists of the strain rate sensitivity coefficients of the yield strength and strain hardening.

Keywords: rate dependent material properties, dynamic constitutive model, OFHC copper film, strain rate

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

Abstract:

Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: risk, control, banking, FMECA, criticality

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