Search results for: small signal model

Authors: S. J. Shahidzadeh Tabatabaei, A. M. Fattahi

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Modal analysis of an FGM plate composed of Al2O3 ceramic phase and 304 stainless steel metal phases was performed in this paper by ABAQUS software with the assumption that the behavior of material is elastic and mechanical properties (Young's modulus and density) are variable in the thickness direction of the plate. Therefore, a sub-program was written in FORTRAN programming language and was linked with ABAQUS software. For modal analysis, a finite element analysis was carried out similar to the model of other researchers and the accuracy of results was evaluated after comparing the results. Comparison of natural frequencies and mode shapes reflected the compatibility of results and optimal performance of the program written in FORTRAN as well as high accuracy of finite element model used in this research. After validation of the results, it was evaluated the effect of material (n parameter) on the natural frequency. In this regard, finite element analysis was carried out for different values of n and in simply supported mode. About the effect of n parameter that indicates the effect of material on the natural frequency, it was observed that the natural frequency decreased as n increased; because by increasing n, the share of ceramic phase on FGM plate has decreased and the share of steel phase has increased and this led to reducing stiffness of FGM plate and thereby reduce in the natural frequency. That is because the Young's modulus of Al2O3 ceramic is equal to 380 GPa and Young's modulus of SUS304 steel is 207 GPa.

Keywords: FGM plates, modal analysis, natural frequency, finite element method

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Wenfeng Xie

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Bulk/hull cavitation evolution induced by an underwater explosion (UNDEX) near a free surface (bulk) or a deformable structure (hull) is numerically investigated using a multiphase compressible fluid solver coupled with a one-fluid cavitation model. A series of two-dimensional computations is conducted with varying material elasticity and surface curvature. Results suggest that material elasticity and surface curvature influence the peak pressures generated from UNDEX shock and cavitation collapse, as well as the bulk/hull cavitation regions near the surface. Results also show that such effects can be different for bulk cavitation generated from UNDEX-free surface interaction and for hull cavitation generated from UNDEX-structure interaction. More importantly, results demonstrate that shock wave focusing caused by a concave solid surface can lead to a larger cavitation region and thus intensify the cavitation reload. The findings can be linked to the strength and the direction of reflected waves from the structural surface and reflected waves from the expanding bubble surface, which are functions of material elasticity and surface curvature. Shockwave focusing effects are also observed for axisymmetric simulations, but the strength of the pressure contours for the axisymmetric simulations is less than those for the 2D simulations due to the difference between the initial shock energy. The current method is limited to two-dimensional or axisymmetric applications. Moreover, the thermal effects are neglected and the liquid is not allowed to sustain tension in the cavitation model.

Keywords: cavitation, UNDEX, fluid-structure interaction, multiphase

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Authors: Meitham Amereh, Mohsen Akbari, Ben Nadler

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Cancer has been recognized as one of the most challenging problems in biology and medicine. Aggressive tumors are a lethal type of cancers characterized by high genomic instability, rapid progression, invasiveness, and therapeutic resistance. Their behavior involves complicated molecular biology and consequential dynamics. Although tremendous effort has been devoted to developing therapeutic approaches, there is still a huge need for new insights into the dark aspects of tumors. As one of the key requirements in better understanding the complex behavior of tumors, mathematical modeling and continuum physics, in particular, play a pivotal role. Mathematical modeling can provide a quantitative prediction on biological processes and help interpret complicated physiological interactions in tumors microenvironment. The pathophysiology of aggressive tumors is strongly affected by the extracellular cues such as stresses produced by mechanical forces between the tumor and the host tissue. During the tumor progression, the growing mass displaces the surrounding extracellular matrix (ECM), and due to the level of tissue stiffness, stress accumulates inside the tumor. The produced stress can influence the tumor by breaking adherent junctions. During this process, the tumor stops the rapid proliferation and begins to remodel its shape to preserve the homeostatic equilibrium state. To reach this, the tumor, in turn, upregulates epithelial to mesenchymal transit-inducing transcription factors (EMT-TFs). These EMT-TFs are involved in various signaling cascades, which are often associated with tumor invasiveness and malignancy. In this work, we modeled the tumor as a growing hyperplastic mass and investigated the effects of mechanical stress from surrounding ECM on tumor invasion. The invasion is modeled as volume-preserving inelastic evolution. In this framework, principal balance laws are considered for tumor mass, linear momentum, and diffusion of nutrients. Also, mechanical interactions between the tumor and ECM is modeled using Ciarlet constitutive strain energy function, and dissipation inequality is utilized to model the volumetric growth rate. System parameters, such as rate of nutrient uptake and cell proliferation, are obtained experimentally. To validate the model, human Glioblastoma multiforme (hGBM) tumor spheroids were incorporated inside Matrigel/Alginate composite hydrogel and was injected into a microfluidic chip to mimic the tumor’s natural microenvironment. The invasion structure was analyzed by imaging the spheroid over time. Also, the expression of transcriptional factors involved in invasion was measured by immune-staining the tumor. The volumetric growth, stress distribution, and inelastic evolution of tumors were predicted by the model. Results showed that the level of invasion is in direct correlation with the level of predicted stress within the tumor. Moreover, the invasion length measured by fluorescent imaging was shown to be related to the inelastic evolution of tumors obtained by the model.

Keywords: cancer, invasion, mathematical modeling, microfluidic chip, tumor spheroids

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Authors: Valentina A. Mikhailova, Serguei V. Feskov, Anatoly I. Ivanov

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In the last decade the nonequilibrium charge transfer have attracted considerable interest from the scientific community. Examples of such processes are the charge recombination in excited donor-acceptor complexes and the intramolecular electron transfer from the second excited electronic state. In these reactions the charge transfer proceeds predominantly in the nonequilibrium mode. In the excited donor-acceptor complexes the nuclear nonequilibrium is created by the pump pulse. The intramolecular electron transfer from the second excited electronic state is an example where the nuclear nonequilibrium is created by the forward electron transfer. The kinetics of these nonequilibrium reactions demonstrate a number of peculiar properties. Most important from them are: (i) the absence of the Marcus normal region in the free energy gap law for the charge recombination in excited donor-acceptor complexes, (ii) extremely low quantum yield of thermalized charge separated state in the ultrafast charge transfer from the second excited state, (iii) the nonexponential charge recombination dynamics in excited donor-acceptor complexes, (iv) the dependence of the charge transfer rate constant on the excitation pulse frequency. This report shows that most of these kinetic features can be well reproduced in the framework of stochastic point-transition multichannel model. The model involves an explicit description of the nonequilibrium excited state formation by the pump pulse and accounts for the reorganization of intramolecular high-frequency vibrational modes, for their relaxation as well as for the solvent relaxation. The model is able to quantitatively reproduce complex nonequilibrium charge transfer kinetics observed in modern experiments. The interpretation of the nonequilibrium effects from a unified point of view in the terms of the multichannel point transition stochastic model allows to see similarities and differences of electron transfer mechanism in various molecular donor-acceptor systems and formulates general regularities inherent in these phenomena. The nonequilibrium effects in photoinduced ultrafast charge transfer which have been studied for the last 10 years are analyzed. The methods of suppression of the ultrafast charge recombination, similarities and dissimilarities of electron transfer mechanism in different molecular donor-acceptor systems are discussed. The extremely low quantum yield of the thermalized charge separated state observed in the ultrafast charge transfer from the second excited state in the complex consisting of 1,2,4-trimethoxybenzene and tetracyanoethylene in acetonitrile solution directly demonstrates that its effectiveness can be close to unity. This experimental finding supports the idea that the nonequilibrium charge recombination in the excited donor-acceptor complexes can be also very effective so that the part of thermalized complexes is negligible. It is discussed the regularities inherent to the equilibrium and nonequilibrium reactions. Their fundamental differences are analyzed. Namely the opposite dependencies of the charge transfer rates on the dynamical properties of the solvent. The increase of the solvent viscosity results in decreasing the thermal rate and vice versa increasing the nonequilibrium rate. The dependencies of the rates on the solvent reorganization energy and the free energy gap also can considerably differ. This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Grant No. 16-13-10122).

Keywords: Charge recombination, higher excited states, free energy gap law, nonequilibrium

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Authors: Shakila Singh, Devanya Reddy, Navisha Sewnath

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Children spend a substantial time at school, and their awareness and construction of sexual identities are significantly impacted by their teachers. South African primary schools locate sex and sexuality education in the Life Orientation (LO), leaving all engagement with issues of identity and diversity in the domain of LO teachers. This paper examines the views and experiences of selected teachers regarding their engagement with sexual diversity in a primary school in South Africa. This is a small-scale qualitative study. The sample comprised twelve teachers (including non-LO teachers), and the main research method was a semi-structured interview. The findings show that the teachers have limited understanding of sexual diversity. They mostly hold heteronormative and moralistic views, negate children's sexuality, and they are awkward about acknowledging and discussing diverse sexualities. We argue that teachers need to reflect on their own conservative socialisation and moral judgements, address their discomfort concerning addressing issues of sex and sexual diversity with children, and create an environment for children to construct their sexualities within a supportive context. Teacher Education must, therefore, prepare teachers in a manner that recognises the complex ways gender and sexuality infuse all aspects of learners' lives and prepare all teachers for a non-judgmental approach to sexual inclusion that challenges heteronormativity in primary school.

Keywords: primary school, sexuality education, sexual diversity, teachers

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Authors: S. Bahrami, A. Rezaie, Z. Boroumand, S. Ghavami

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Neospora caninum is protozoan parasite which can cause a serious disease in dogs and cattle. It has been shown that birds may be a permissive intermediate host for N. caninum since parasite DNA has been detected in tissues from birds. It is showed that embryonated chicken egg can be used as an animal model for experimental infection. The aim of present study was to compare experimental infection of Neospora in chicken and pigeons embryonated eggs. An infection with N. caninum Nc1 isolate was conducted in chicken and pigeons embryonated eggs to evaluate LD50. After calculation of LD50, 2LD50 of tachyzoites were injected to eggs. Macroscopic changes of each embryo were noticed and to investigate the parasite distribution in tissues immunohistochemistry (IHC) and molecular methods were used. In the present study, histopathological changes were considered and sections to those used for histopathological examination including heart, liver, brain and chorioallantoic (CA) membrane were subjected to IHC, too. For PCR procedure, primer pair Np21/Np6 was used for amplification of the Nc5 gene. Pigeon's embryo showed more macroscopic changes than chicken embryo. A hemorrhage of the CA was the main grass lesion. All the infected tissues had histopathological changes. Microscopic examination of tissues revealed acute neosporosis due to hemorrhage, necrosis and infiltration of mononuclear inflammatory cells. Based on IHC and molecular results, the parasite aggregation in the heart was more predominant than in the other tissues. These results reinforce that there is genetic susceptibility to N. caninum in pigeons embryonated eggs like chickens embryonated eggs and provide new insights to research an inexpensive and available animal model for N. caninum.

Keywords: immunohistochemistry, Neospora caninum, PCR, pigeon embryonated egg

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Authors: Sukran Acikel, Mehmet Ekmekci, Otgonbayar Namkhai

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Lignite coal fields in western Turkey generally occurs in tensional Neogene basins bordered by major faults. Karacahisar coal field in Mugla province of western Turkey is a large Neogene basin filled with alternation of silisic and calcerous layers. The basement of the basin is composed of mainly karstified carbonate rocks of Mesozoic and schists of Paleozoic age. The basement rocks are exposed at highlands surrounding the basin. The basin fill deposits forms shallow, low yield and local aquifers whereas karstic carbonate rock masses forms the major aquifer in the region. The karstic aquifer discharges through a spring zone issuing at intersection of two major faults. Municipal water demand in Bodrum city, a touristic attraction area is almost totally supplied by boreholes tapping the karstic aquifer. A well field has been constructed on the eastern edge of the coal basin, which forms a ridge separating two Neogene basins. A major concern was raised about the plausible impact of mining activities on groundwater system in general and on water supply well field in particular. The hydrogeological studies carried out in the area revealed that the coal seam is located below the groundwater level. Mining operations will be affected by groundwater inflow to the pits, which will require dewatering measures. Dewatering activities in mine sites have two-sided effects: a) lowers the groundwater level at and around the pit for a safe and effective mining operation, b) continuous dewatering causes expansion of cone of depression to reach a spring, stream and/or well being utilized by local people, capturing their water. Plausible effect of mining operations on the flow of the spring zone was another issue of concern. Therefore, a detailed representative hydrogeological conceptual model of the site was developed on the basis of available data and field work. According to the hydrogeological conceptual model, dewatering of Neogene layers will not hydraulically affect the water supply wells, however, the ultimate perimeter of the open pit will expand to intersect the well field. According to the conceptual model, the coal seam is separated from the bottom by a thick impervious clay layer sitting on the carbonate basement. Therefore, the hydrostratigraphy does not allow a hydraulic interaction between the mine pit and the karstic carbonate rock aquifer. However, the structural setting in the basin suggests that deep faults intersecting the basement and the Neogene sequence will most probably carry the deep groundwater up to a level above the bottom of the pit. This will require taking necessary measure to lower the piezometric level of the carbonate rock aquifer along the faults. Dewatering the carbonate rock aquifer will reduce the flow to the spring zone. All findings were put together to recommend a strategy for safe and effective mining operation.

Keywords: conceptual model, dewatering, groundwater, mining operation

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Authors: Kawsar Ahmed, Hong Wang

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The study's goal was to estimate the causal mediation impact of tobacco tax before and after price hikes among low-income male smokers, with a particular emphasis on the effect estimating pathways framework for continuous and dichotomous variables. From July to December 2021, a cross-sectional investigation of observational data (n=739) was collected from Bangladeshi low-wage smokers. The Quasi-Bayesian technique, binomial probit model, and sensitivity analysis using a simulation of the computational tools R mediation package had been used to estimate the effect. After a price rise for tobacco products, the average number of cigarettes or bidis sticks taken decreased from 6.7 to 4.56. Tobacco product rising prices have a direct effect on low-income people's decisions to quit or lessen their daily smoking habits of Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) [effect=2.31, 95 % confidence interval (C.I.) = (4.71-0.00), p<0.01], Average Direct Effect (ADE) [effect=8.6, 95 percent (C.I.) = (6.8-0.11), p<0.001], and overall significant effects (p<0.001). Tobacco smoking choice is described by the mediated proportion of income effect, which is 26.1% less of following price rise. The curve of ACME and ADE is based on observational figures of the coefficients of determination that asses the model of hypothesis as the substantial consequence after price rises in the sensitivity analysis. To reduce smoking product behaviors, price increases through taxation have a positive causal mediation with income that affects the decision to limit tobacco use and promote low-income men's healthcare policy.

Keywords: causal mediation analysis, directed acyclic graphs, tobacco price policy, sensitivity analysis, pathway estimation

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Authors: Chun Hsien Wu, Guan Xuan Wu, Hsia Ying Cheng, Shyh Ming Kuo

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Articular cartilage is composed of chondrocytes and extracellular matrix, such as collagen fibers, glycosaminoglycans, etc., which play an important role in lubricating and cushion joint activities. The phenotypic expression and metabolic activity of chondrocytes are extremely important in maintaining the functions of articular cartilage. In in vitro passaged culture of chondrocytes, chondrocytes gradually lose their original cell phenotype and morphology, which is called dedifferentiation. After continuous passaged culture of chondrocytes or induction by inflammatory factor IL-1, chondrocytes changed their phenotype and morphology. Also, the extracellular matrix type II collagen and GAG secretion were significantly reduced, while type I and X collagen were synthesized. Farnesol is an anti-inflammatory and antioxidant sesquiterpene compound that has the specific property of promoting collagen production. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether farnesol could restore the original type II collagen synthesis and, furthermore, the mechanisms of farnesol on the synthesis of type II collagen from the de-differentiated chondrocytes. The obtained results showed that the de-differentiated chondrocytes significantly restored to secret type II collagen and GAG (2.5-folds increases), and the secretion of collagen I and X and PGE2 synthesis were also significantly reduced after being treated with farnesol, indicating that farnesol had a restoration/re-differentiation effect on de-differentiated chondrocytes. The de-differentiated chondrocytes exhibited decreased expression of PPAR-γ and upregulated TGF-β expression to increase the MMP-13 expression. Higher expression of MMP-13 caused chondrocytes to secret type X collagen. On the contrary, increasing the expression of PPAR-γ would benefit the production of type II collagen. As shown, the PPAR-γ expression increased, and MMP-13 expression decreased after being treated with farnesol, indicating a possible signal pathway of farnesol to restore the production of type II collagen. However, more detailed mechanisms still need to evaluate.

Keywords: chondrocytes, de-differentiation, farnesol, re-differentiation

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Authors: Mohammad Alipour, Ekin Esen, Riza Kizilel

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Lithium-ion batteries are a commonly used type of rechargeable batteries because of their high specific energy and specific power. With the growing popularity of electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles, increasing attentions have been paid to rechargeable Lithium-ion batteries. However, safety problems, high cost and poor performance in low ambient temperatures and high current rates, are big obstacles for commercial utilization of these batteries. By proper thermal management, most of the mentioned limitations could be eliminated. Temperature profile of the Li-ion cells has a significant role in the performance, safety, and cycle life of the battery. That is why little temperature gradient can lead to great loss in the performances of the battery packs. In recent years, numerous researchers are working on new techniques to imply a better thermal management on Li-ion batteries. Keeping the battery cells within an optimum range is the main objective of battery thermal management. Commercial Li-ion cells are composed of several electrochemical layers each consisting negative-current collector, negative electrode, separator, positive electrode, and positive current collector. However, many researchers have adopted a single-layer cell to save in computing time. Their hypothesis is that thermal conductivity of the layer elements is so high and heat transfer rate is so fast. Therefore, instead of several thin layers, they model the cell as one thick layer unit. In previous work, we showed that single-layer model is insufficient to simulate the thermal behavior and temperature nonuniformity of the high-capacity Li-ion cells. We also studied the effects of the number of layers on thermal behavior of the Li-ion batteries. In this work, first thermal and electrochemical behavior of the LiFePO₄ battery is modeled with 3D multilayer cell. The model is validated with the experimental measurements at different current rates and ambient temperatures. Real time heat generation rate is also studied at different discharge rates. Results showed non-uniform temperature distribution along the cell which requires thermal management system. Therefore, aluminum plates with mini-channel system were designed to control the temperature uniformity. Design parameters such as channel number and widths, inlet flow rate, and cooling fluids are optimized. As cooling fluids, water and air are compared. Pressure drop and velocity profiles inside the channels are illustrated. Both surface and internal temperature profiles of single cell and battery packs are investigated with and without cooling systems. Our results show that using optimized Mini-channel cooling plates effectively controls the temperature rise and uniformity of the single cells and battery packs. With increasing the inlet flow rate, cooling efficiency could be reached up to 60%.

Keywords: lithium ion battery, 3D multilayer model, mini-channel cooling plates, thermal management

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Authors: Fangzheng Li, Xiong Li

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Significant differences in urban greening have occurred in Chinese cities, which accompanied with China's rapid urbanization. However, few studies focused on the spatial differentiation of urban greening in China with large amounts of data. The spatial differentiation pattern, spatial correlation characteristics and the distribution shape of urban green space ratio, urban green coverage rate and public green area per capita were calculated and analyzed, using Global and Local Moran's I using data from 289 cities in 2014. We employed Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model to assess the impacts of urbanization process on urban greening of China. Then we used Geographically Weighted Regression to estimate the spatial variations of the impacts. The results showed: 1. a significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity existed in urban greening values, and the differentiation patterns were featured by the administrative grade and the spatial agglomeration simultaneously; 2. it revealed that urbanization has a negative correlation with urban greening in Chinese cities. Among the indices, the the proportion of secondary industry, urbanization rate, population and the scale of urban land use has significant negative correlation with the urban greening of China. Automobile density and per capita Gross Domestic Product has no significant impact. The results of GWR modeling showed that the relationship between urbanization and urban greening was not constant in space. Further, the local parameter estimates suggested significant spatial variation in the impacts of various urbanization factors on urban greening.

Keywords: China’s urbanization, geographically weighted regression, spatial differentiation pattern, urban greening

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Authors: Mateusz Janas

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Innovative implementations in the micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSME) sector are among the essential activities considering the current market realities, technological advancements, and digitization trends. MSMEs play a crucial role and significantly influence the economic conditions of countries, as their competitiveness directly impacts the global economy. Business development and investment in innovation and technology are integral parts of every modern enterprise's strategy, seeking to maintain and achieve a desired competitive position. The instability of the socio-economic environment, along with contemporary changes in artificial intelligence implementation and digitization, requires businesses to adopt increasingly newer solutions and actions. Enterprises must strive to survive in the global market and build competitive positions, especially in uncertain conditions. Being aware of the significance of innovative actions is crucial for MSMEs as it enables them to enhance their operations and expand their scope. It is essential for managers and executives of MSMEs to be focused on development and innovation, as their approach will also impact their employees, emphasizing results and maximizing the company's value. Managers of MSMEs must be aware of various threats, costs, opportunities, and gains that can arise from implementing new technical and organizational solutions. Businesses must view development as an integral part of their strategy and continuously strive for improvement.

Keywords: innovation, SME, develop, management

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Authors: C. R. Danielle, S. Erik, T. Patrick, M. Hugh

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In the last decade there has been an increase in demand for fine grinding due to the depletion of coarse-grained orebodies and an increase of processing fine disseminated minerals and complex orebodies. These ores have provided new challenges in concentrator design because fine and ultra-fine grinding is required to achieve acceptable recovery rates. Therefore, the correct design of a grinding circuit is important for minimizing unit costs and increasing product quality. The use of ball mills for grinding in fine size ranges is inefficient and, therefore, vertical stirred grinding mills are becoming increasingly popular in the mineral processing industry due to its already known high energy efficiency. This work presents a hypothesis of a methodology to predict the product size distribution of a vertical stirred mill using a Bond ball mill. The Population Balance Model (PBM) was used to empirically analyze the performance of a vertical mill and a Bond ball mill. The breakage parameters obtained for both grinding mills are compared to determine the possibility of predicting the product size distribution of a vertical mill based on the results obtained from the Bond ball mill. The biggest advantage of this methodology is that most of the minerals processing laboratories already have a Bond ball mill to perform the tests suggested in this study. Preliminary results show the possibility of predicting the performance of a laboratory vertical stirred mill using a Bond ball mill.

Keywords: bond ball mill, population balance model, product size distribution, vertical stirred mill

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Authors: Sudeshna Mukherjee, Leena Fageria, R. Venkataramana Dilip, Rajdeep Chowdhury, Jitendra Panwar

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Metal nanoparticles in recent years have gained importance in cancer therapy due to their enhanced permeability retention effect. Among various nanomaterials, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) have received considerable attention due to their unique properties like conductivity, chemical stability, relative lower toxicity and outstanding therapeutic potential, such as anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial and anti-cancerous activities. In this study, we took a greener approach to synthesize silver nanoparticle from fungus and analyze its effects on both epithelial and mesenchymal derived cancer cells. Much research has been done on nanoparticle-induced apoptosis, but little is known about its role in autophagy. In our study, the silver nanoparticles were seen to induce autophagy which was analyzed by studying the expression of several autophagy markers like, LC3B-II and ATG genes. Monodansylcadaverine (MDC) assay also revealed the induction of autophagy upon treatment with AgNPs. Inhibition of autophagy by chloroquine resulted in increased cell death suggesting autophagy as a survival strategy adopted by the cells. In parallel to autophagy induction, silver nanoparticles induced ROS accumulation. Interestingly, autophagy inhibition by chloroquine increased ROS level, resulting in enhanced cell death. We further analyzed MAPK signaling upon AgNP treatment. It was observed that along with autophagy, activation of JNK signaling served as pro-survival while ERK signaling served as a pro-death signal. Our results provide valuable insights into the role of autophagy upon AgNP exposure and provide cues to probabilistic strategies to effectively sensitize cancer cells.

Keywords: autophagy, JNK signalling, reactive oxygen species, silver nanoparticles

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Authors: Elisa Y. M. Ang, Teng Yong Ng, Jingjie Yeo, Rongming Lin, Zishun Liu, K. R. Geethalakshmi

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By stacking carbon nanotubes (CNT) one on top of another, single layer CNT arrays can perform water-salt separation with ultra-high permeability and selectivity. Such outer-wall CNT slit membrane is named as the transverse flow CNT membrane. By adjusting the slit size between neighboring CNTs, the membrane can be configured to sieve out different solutes, right down to the separation of monovalent salt ions from water. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation results show that the permeability of transverse flow CNT membrane is more than two times that of conventional axial-flow CNT membranes, and orders of magnitude higher than current reverse osmosis membrane. In addition, by carrying out MD simulations with different CNT size, it was observed that the variance in desalination performance with CNT size is small. This insensitivity of the transverse flow CNT membrane’s performance to CNT size is a distinct advantage over axial flow CNT membrane designs. Not only does the membrane operate well under constant pressure desalination operation, but MD simulations further indicate that oscillatory operation can further enhance the membrane’s desalination performance, making it suitable for operation such as electrodialysis reversal. While there are still challenges that need to be overcome, particularly on the physical fabrication of such membrane, it is hope that this versatile membrane design can bring the idea of using low dimensional structures for desalination closer to reality.

Keywords: carbon nanotubes, membrane desalination, transverse flow carbon nanotube membrane, molecular dynamics

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Authors: Rachel Karasenty Saltoun, Charlotte Roddick, Chelsea D. Christie, Frances Chen

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Moving has become an integral part of many people’s lives. This research explores whether relocating to a new city is associated with an increase in loneliness and cardiovascular disease risk and if this increased risk diminishes with continued residency. To test this, various psychosocial variables and three cardiovascular disease risk markers (C-reactive protein, albumin, blood pressure) were assessed on two groups of individuals: those who have moved to Vancouver, Canada in the previous 6 weeks (‘Movers’) and those who have lived in Vancouver for at least five years (‘Non-Movers’). It was hypothesized that individuals who had recently relocated would have heightened levels of loneliness, blood pressure (BP), albumin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) compared to those who had not recently relocated. Length of residency was hypothesized to moderate these effects, such that after a few months, loneliness levels and cardiovascular disease risk would decrease among those who had recently relocated. Correlational analysis indicated a trend between the change in CRP and albumin levels and loneliness overtime on an individual level. However, these results must be interpreted with caution due to the small sample size. As Vancouver’s immigration rates continue to grow, this study has important implications regarding the social support resources offered to new immigrants, as well as bringing awareness at the healthcare level of the potential increase in cardiovascular disease risk among those who have recently relocated.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease risk, loneliness, moving, residential mobility

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Authors: M. N. Islam, B. Boswell, Y. R. Ginting

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The influence of canned cycles and cutting parameters on hole quality in cryogenic drilling has been investigated experimentally and analytically. A three-level, three-parameter experiment was conducted by using the design-of-experiment methodology. The three levels of independent input parameters were the following: for canned cycles—a chip-breaking canned cycle (G73), a spot drilling canned cycle (G81), and a deep hole canned cycle (G83); for feed rates—0.2, 0.3, and 0.4 mm/rev; and for cutting speeds—60, 75, and 100 m/min. The selected work and tool materials were aluminum 6061-6T and high-speed steel (HSS), respectively. For cryogenic cooling, liquid nitrogen (LN2) was used and was applied externally. The measured output parameters were the three widely used quality characteristics of drilled holes—diameter error, circularity, and surface roughness. Pareto ANOVA was applied for analyzing the results. The findings revealed that the canned cycle has a significant effect on diameter error (contribution ratio 44.09%) and small effects on circularity and surface finish (contribution ratio 7.25% and 6.60%, respectively). The best results for the dimensional accuracy and surface roughness were achieved by G81. G73 produced the best circularity results; however, for dimensional accuracy, it was the worst level.

Keywords: circularity, diameter error, drilling canned cycle, pareto ANOVA, surface roughness

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Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

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The urban transit system is a critical part of a solution to the economic, energy, and environmental challenges. Furthermore, it ultimately contributes the improvement of people’s quality of lives. For taking these kinds of advantages, the city of Seoul has tried to construct an integrated transit system including both subway and buses. The effort led to the fact that approximately 6.9 million citizens use the integrated transit system every day for their trips. Diagnosing the current transit network is a significant task to provide more convenient and pleasant transit environment. Therefore, the critical objective of this study is to establish a methodological framework for the analysis of an integrated bus-subway network and to examine the relationship between subway ridership and parameters such as network topology measures, bus demand, and a variety of commercial business facilities. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, many previous studies relied on Ordinary Least Square regression, but there was lack of studies considering the endogeneity issues which might show in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of integrated transit network topology measures and endogenous effect of bus demand on subway ridership. It could ultimately contribute to developing more accurate subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers Seoul city in South Korea, and it includes 243 subway stations and 10,120 bus stops with the temporal scope set during twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The subway and bus ridership information in detail was collected from the Seoul Smart Card data in 2015 and 2016. First, integrated subway-bus network topology measures which have characteristics regarding connectivity, centrality, transitivity, and reciprocity were estimated based on the complex network theory. The results of integrated transit network topology analysis were compared to subway-only network topology. Also, the non-recursive approach which is Three-Stage Least Square was applied to develop the daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity between bus and subway demands. Independent variables included roadway geometry, commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. Consequently, it was found that network topology measures were significant size effect. Especially, centrality measures showed that the elasticity was a change of 4.88% for closeness centrality, 24.48% for betweenness centrality while the elasticity of bus ridership was 8.85%. Moreover, it was proved that bus demand and subway ridership were endogenous in a non-recursive manner as showing that predicted bus ridership and predicted subway ridership is statistically significant in OLS regression models. Therefore, it shows that three-stage least square model appears to be a plausible model for efficient subway ridership estimation. It is expected that the proposed approach provides a reliable guideline that can be used as part of the spectrum of tools for evaluating a city-wide integrated transit network.

Keywords: integrated transit system, network topology measures, three-stage least squared, endogeneity, subway ridership

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Authors: Bhavesh Dadhich, Fenil Bamnoliya, Akshita Swaminathan

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This project aims to design a system to generate energy from flowing wind due to the motion of a vehicle on the road or from the flow of wind in compact areas to utilize the wasteful energy into a useful one. It is envisaged through a design and aerodynamic performance improvement of a Savonius vertical axis wind turbine rotor and used in an integrated system with a Triboelectric Nanogenerator (TENG) that can generate a good amount of electrical energy. Aerodynamic calculations are performed numerically using Computational Fluid Dynamics software, and TENG's performance is evaluated analytically. The Turbine's coefficient of power is validated with published results for an inlet velocity of 7 m/s with a Tip Speed Ratio of 0.75 and found to reasonably agree with that of experiment results. The baseline design is modified with a new blade arc angle and rotor position angle based on the recommended parameter ranges suggested by previous researchers. Simulations have been performed for different T.S.R. values ranging from 0.25 to 1.5 with an interval of 0.25 with two applicable free stream velocities of 5 m/s and 7m/s. Finally, the newly designed VAWT CFD performance results are used as input for the analytical performance prediction of the triboelectric nanogenerator. The results show that this approach could be feasible and useful for small power source applications.

Keywords: savonius turbine, power, overlap ratio, tip speed ratio, TENG

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Authors: M. M. Essa, S. Subash, M. Akbar, S. Al-Adawi, A. Al-Asmi, G. J. Guillemein

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Transgenic (tg) mice which contain an amyloid precursor protein (APP) gene mutation, develop extracellular amyloid beta (Aβ) deposition in the brain, and severe memory and behavioral deficits with age. These mice serve as an important animal model for testing the efficacy of novel drug candidates for the treatment and management of symptoms of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Several reports have suggested that oxidative stress is the underlying cause of Aβ neurotoxicity in AD. Date palm fruits contain very high levels of antioxidants and several medicinal properties that may be useful for improving the quality of life in AD patients. In this study, we investigated the effect of dietary supplementation of Omani date palm fruits on the memory, anxiety and learning skills along with inflammation in an AD mouse model containing the double Swedish APP mutation (APPsw/Tg2576). The experimental groups of APP-transgenic mice from the age of 4 months were fed custom-mix diets (pellets) containing 2% and 4% Date palm fruits. We assessed spatial memory and learning ability, psychomotor coordination, and anxiety-related behavior in Tg and wild-type mice at the age of 4-5 months and 18-19 months using the Morris water maze test, rota rod test, elevated plus maze test, and open field test. Further, inflammatory parameters also analyzed. APPsw/Tg2576 mice that were fed a standard chow diet without dates showed significant memory deficits, increased anxiety-related behavior, and severe impairment in spatial learning ability, position discrimination learning ability and motor coordination along with increased inflammation compared to the wild type mice on the same diet, at the age of 18-19 months In contrast, PPsw/Tg2576 mice that were fed a diet containing 2% and 4% dates showed a significant improvements in memory, learning, locomotor function, and anxiety with reduced inflammatory markers compared to APPsw/Tg2576 mice fed the standard chow diet. Our results suggest that dietary supplementation with dates may slow the progression of cognitive and behavioral impairments in AD. The exact mechanism is still unclear and further extensive research needed.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, date palm fruits, Oman, cognitive decline, memory loss, anxiety, inflammation

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Authors: Desta Brhanu Gebrehiwot

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The purpose of this review was to analyze the overall or combined effect of scholarly studies conducted on the impacts of Food for work (FFW) and Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on farm households’ livelihood (agricultural investment on the adoption of fertilizer, food security, livestock holding, nutrition and its’ disincentive effect) in Ethiopia. In addition, to make a critical assessment of the internal and external validity of the existing studies, the review also indicates the possibility to redesign the program. The method of selecting eligible studies for review was PICOS (Participants, Intervention, Comparison, Outcomes, and Settings) framework. The method of analysis was the fixed effects model under Meta-Analysis. The findings of this systematic review confirm the overall or combined positive significant impact of PSNP on fertilizer adoption (combined point estimate=0.015, standard error=0.005, variance=0.000, lower limit 0.004 up to the upper limit=0.026, z-value=2.726, and p-value=0.006). And the program had a significant positive impact on the child nutrition of rural households and had no significant disincentive effect. However, the program had no significant impact on livestock holdings. Thus, PSNP is important for households whose livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture and are exposed to rainfall shocks. Thus, better to integrate the program into the national agricultural policy. In addition, most of the studies suggested that PSNP needs more attention to the design and targeting issued in order to be effective and efficient in social protection.

Keywords: meta-analysis, fixed effect model, PSNP, rural-livelihood, Ethiopia

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Authors: Mustafa Metin Donma, Orkide Donma

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Childhood obesity is an important clinical problem because it may lead to chronic diseases during the adulthood period of the individual. Obesity is a metabolic disease associated with low-grade inflammation. The liver occurs at the center of metabolic pathways. Adropin, fibroblast growth factor-21 (FGF-21), and fetuin-A are hepatokines. Due to the immense participation of the liver in glucose metabolism, these liver-derived factors may be associated with insulin resistance (IR), which is a phenomenon discussed within the scope of obesity problems. The aim of this study is to determine the concentrations of adropin, FGF-21, and fetuin-A in childhood obesity, to point out possible differences between the obesity groups, and to investigate possible associations among these three hepatokines in obese and morbidly obese children. A total of one hundred and thirty-two children were included in the study. Two obese groups were constituted. The groups were matched in terms of mean ± SD values of ages. Body mass index values of obese and morbidly obese groups were 25.0 ± 3.5 kg/m² and 29.8 ± 5.7 kg/m², respectively. Anthropometric measurements including waist circumference, hip circumference, head circumference, and neck circumference were recorded. Informed consent forms were taken from the parents of the participants. The ethics committee of the institution approved the study protocol. Blood samples were obtained after overnight fasting. Routine biochemical tests, including glucose- and lipid-related parameters, were performed. Concentrations of the hepatokines (adropin, FGF-21, fetuin A) were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Insulin resistance indices such as homeostasis model assessment for IR (HOMA-IR), alanine transaminase-to aspartate transaminase ratio (ALT/AST), diagnostic obesity notation model assessment laboratory index, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment metabolic syndrome index as well as obesity indices such as diagnostic obesity notation model assessment-II index, and fat mass index were calculated using the previously derived formulas. Statistical evaluation of the study data as well as findings of the study was performed by SPSS for Windows. Statistical difference was accepted significant when p is smaller than 0.05. Statistically significant differences were found for insulin, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of the groups. A significant increase was observed for FGF-21 concentrations in the morbidly obese group. Higher adropin and fetuin-A concentrations were observed in the same group in comparison with the values detected in the obese group (p > 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the ALT/AST values of the groups. In all of the remaining IR and obesity indices, significantly increased values were calculated for morbidly obese children. Significant correlations were detected between HOMA-IR and each of the hepatokines. The highest one was the association with fetuin-A (r=0.373, p=0.001). In conclusion, increased levels observed in adropin, FGF-21, and fetuin-A have shown that these hepatokines possess increasing potential going from obese to morbid obese state. Out of the correlations found with the IR index, the most affected hepatokine was fetuin-A, the parameter possibly used as the indicator of the advanced obesity stage.

Keywords: adropin, fetuin A, fibroblast growth factor-21, insulin resistance, pediatric obesity

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Authors: Shih-Heng Tung, Ming-Hsiang Shih, Wen-Pei Sung

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Because of the rapid development of digital camera and computer, digital image correlation method has drawn lots of attention recently and has been applied to a variety of fields. However, the image distortion is inevitable when the image is captured through a lens. This image distortion problem can result in an innegligible error while using digital image correlation method. There are already many different ways to correct the image distortion, and most of them require specific image patterns or precise control points. A new distortion correction method is proposed in this study. The proposed method is based on the fact that a flat surface should keep flat when it is measured using three-dimensional (3D) digital image measurement technique. Lens distortion can be divided into radial distortion, decentering distortion and thin prism distortion. Because radial distortion has a more noticeable influence than the other types of distortions, this method deals only with radial distortion. The simplified 3D digital image measurement technique is adopted to measure the surface coordinates of a flat specimen. Then the gradient method is applied to find the best correction parameters. A few experiments are carried out in this study to verify the correctness of this method. The results show that this method can achieve a good accuracy and it is suitable for both large and small distortion conditions. The most important advantage is that it requires neither mark with specific pattern nor precise control points.

Keywords: 3D DIC, radial distortion, distortion correction, planarity

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Authors: Pilar Gamarra Gamarra, Michele Girotto

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In the expanding field of leaders’ ethical behavior research, little attention has been paid to the association between finance leaders’ ethical traits (beyond personality) and ethical leadership, and more importantly, how these ethical characteristics can be predictors of ethical behavior at the leadership level in the financial sector. In this study, we tested a theoretical model based on uponsocial cognitive theory (Bandura, 1986) and the cognitive-developmental model (Piaget, 1932) to examine leaders’ moral identity and moral attentiveness as antecedents of ethical leadership. After the 2008 economic crisis, the marketplace has awakened to the potential dangers of unethical behavior. The unethical behavior of the leaders of the financial sector was identified as guilty of this economic catastrophe. For that reason, it seems increasingly prudent for organizations to have leaders who are cognitively inclined toward ethical behavior. This evidence suggests that moral attentiveness and moral identity is perhaps one way of identifying those kinds of leaders. For leaders who are morally attentive and have a high moral identity, themes of ethics interventions are consistent with their way of seeing the word. As a result, these leaders could become critical components of change in organizations and could provide the energy and skills necessary for these efforts to be successful. Ethical behavior of leader from the financial sector and marketing sectors must be joined to manage the change. In this study, a leader’s moral identity, leader’s moral attentiveness, and self-importance of Ethical Leadership are measured for financial and marketing leaders to be compared to determine the relationship between the three variables in each sector. Other conclusion related to gender, educational level or generation are obtained.

Keywords: ethical leadership, moral identity, moral attentiveness, financial leaders, marketing leaders, ethical behavior

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Authors: Mahtsente Tadese, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech

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The aim of this study was to project and analyze climate change in the Awash River Basin (ARB) using bias-corrected Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. The analysis included a baseline period from 1986-2005 and two future scenarios (the 2050s and 2070s) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Bias correction methods were evaluated using graphical and statistical methods. Following the evaluation of bias correction methods, the Distribution Mapping (DM) and Power Transformation (PT) were used for temperature and precipitation projection, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4 simulations showed an increase in precipitation during half of the months with 32 and 10%, respectively. Moreover, the 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a decrease in precipitation with 18 and 26%, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a significant decrease in precipitation in four of the months (February/March to May) with the highest decreasing rate of 34.7%. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4.5 simulation showed an increase of 0.48-2.6 °C in maximum temperature. In the case of RCP8.5, the increase rate reached 3.4 °C and 4.1 °C in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. The changes in precipitation and temperature might worsen the water stress, flood, and drought in ARB. Moreover, the critical focus should be given to mitigation strategies and management options to reduce the negative impact. The findings of this study provide valuable information on future precipitation and temperature change in ARB, which will help in the planning and design of sustainable mitigation approaches in the basin.

Keywords: variability, climate change, Awash River Basin, precipitation

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Authors: Wu Wei-Ting, Liu Po-Yen, Chang Chin-Tzu, Cheng Wei-Chun

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Three types of low-temperature phase transformations in an Fe-12.5 Mn-6.53 Al-1.28 C (wt %) alloy have been studied. The steel underwent solution heat treatment at 1100℃ and isothermal holding at low temperatures. γ’ phase appears in the austenite matrix in the air-cooled steel. Coherent ultra-fine particles of γ’ phase precipitated uniformly in the austenite matrix after the air-cooling process. These ultra-fine particles were very small and only could be detected by TEM through dark-field images. After short periods of isothermal holding at low temperatures these particles of γ’ phase grew and could be easily detected by TEM. A pro-eutectoid reaction happened after isothermal holding at temperatures below 875 ℃. Proeutectoid κ-carbide and ferrite appear in the austenite matrix as grain boundary precipitates and cellular precipitates. The cellular precipitates are composed of lamellar κ-carbide and austenite. The lamellar κ-carbide grains are always accompanied by layers of austenite twins. The presence of twin layers adhering to the κ-carbide plates might be attributed to the lower activation energy for the precipitation of κ-carbide plates in the austenite. The final form of phase transformation is the eutectoid reaction for the decomposition of supersaturated austenite into stable κ-carbide and ferrite phases at temperatures below 700℃. The ferrite and κ-carbide are in the form of pearlite lamellae.

Keywords: austenite, austenite twin layers, κ-carbide, twins

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Authors: Rafiat Bolanle Fasasi-Hammed

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Cassava is an important food crop in rural households of Nigeria. It has a high potential for product diversification, because it can be processed into various products forms for human consumption and can be made into chips for farm animals, and also starch and starch derivatives. However, cassava roots are highly perishable and contain potentially toxic cyanogenic glycosides which necessitate its processing. Therefore, this study was carried out to assess information needs of cassava processors on food safety practices in Oyo State, Nigeria. Simple random sampling technique was used in the selection of 110 respondents for this study. Descriptive statistics and chi-square were used to analyze the data collected. Results of this study showed that the mean age of the respondents was 39.4 years, majority (78.7%) of the respondents was married, 51.9% had secondary education; 45.8% of the respondents have spent more than 12 years in cassava processing. The mean income realized was ₦26,347.50/month from cassava processing. Information on cassava processing got to the respondents through friends, family and relations (73.6%) and fellow cassava processors (58.6%). Serious constraints identified were ineffective extension agents (93.9%), food safety regulatory agencies (88.1%) and inadequate processing and storage facilities (67.8%). Chi-square results showed that significant relationship existed between socio-economic characteristics of the respondents (χ2 = 29.80, df = 2,), knowledge level (χ2 = 9.26, df = 4), constraints (χ2 = 13.11, df = 2) and information needs at p < 0.05 level of significance. The study recommends that there should be regular training on improved cassava processing methods for the cassava processors in the study area.

Keywords: information, needs, cassava, Oyo State, processing

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Authors: Prakash Singh

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The question that arises is whether a theory such as the Collegial Leadership Model of Emancipation (COLME) has the potency to introduce leadership change by empowering and emancipating their employees. It is a fallacy to simply assume that experience alone, in the absence of theory, will contribute to this knowledge base to develop collegial leaders. The focus of this study is to therefore ascertain whether the COLME can serve as a conceptual framework to transform traditional bureaucratic management practices (TBMPs) in order to promote shared decision-making in organizations such as schools. All the respondents in this exploratory qualitative study embraced collegiality to transform TBMPs in their organizations. For the positive effects to be sustained, the collegial practices need to be evolutionary and emancipatory in order to evoke the values of collegial leadership as elucidated by the findings of this study. Interviewees affirmed that the COLME provides an astute framework to develop commendable collegial leadership practices as it clearly outlines procedures to develop and use the leadership potential of all the employees in order to foster joint accountability. They acknowledged that when the principles of collegiality are flexibly applied, they contribute to the creation of a holistic milieu in which all employees are able to express themselves freely, without fear of failure, and thus feel that they are part of the democratic decision-making process. Evidently, a conceptual framework such as the COLME can serve as a benchmark for leadership effectiveness because organizational outcomes need to be measured against standards of excellence in meeting both employee and customer expectations.

Keywords: collegial leadership model, employee empowerment, shared decision-making, traditional bureaucratic management practices

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Authors: Christopher Benedikt Jakob

Abstract:

Human beings are intrigued by luxury watches for decades. It is fascinating that customers pay an enormous amount of money for specific wristwatch models. It is fascinating that customers of the luxury watch industry accept a yearly price increase. This behavior increases their desirability even more. Luxury watches are perceived as status symbols, but they are additionally accepted as a currency without the disadvantage of currency fluctuations. It is obvious that the symbolic value is more important as the functional value with reference to the buying-reasons as regards luxury watches. Nowadays human beings do not need a wristwatch to read the time. Tablets, notebooks, smartphones, the watch in the car and watches on public places are used to inform people about the current time. This is one of the reasons why there is a trend that people do not wear wristwatches anymore. Due to these facts, this study has the intention to give answers to the question why people invest an enormous amount of money on the consumption of luxury watches and why those watches are seen as a status symbol. The study examines why the luxury watch industry records significant growth rates. The self-expression model is used as an appropriate methodology to find reasons why human beings purchase specific luxury watches. This evaluative approach further discusses if human beings are aware of their current self and their ideal self and how they express them. Furthermore, the research critically evaluates the people’s social self and their ideal social self. One of the goals is to identify if customers know why they like specific luxury watches and dislike others although they have the same quality and cost comparable prices.

Keywords: luxury watch, brand awareness, buying-behaviour, consumer, self-expression

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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