Search results for: time series
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19485

Search results for: time series

18495 Rapid Detection of MBL Genes by SYBR Green Based Real-Time PCR

Authors: Taru Singh, Shukla Das, V. G. Ramachandran

Abstract:

Objectives: To develop SYBR green based real-time PCR assay to detect carbapenemases (NDM, IMP) genes in E. coli. Methods: A total of 40 E. coli from stool samples were tested. Six were previously characterized as resistant to carbapenems and documented by PCR. The remaining 34 isolates previously tested susceptible to carbapenems and were negative for these genes. Bacterial RNA was extracted using manual method. The real-time PCR was performed using the Light Cycler III 480 instrument (Roche) and specific primers for each carbapenemase target were used. Results: Each one of the two carbapenemase gene tested presented a different melting curve after PCR amplification. The melting temperature (Tm) analysis of the amplicons identified was as follows: blaIMP type (Tm 82.18°C), blaNDM-1 (Tm 78.8°C). No amplification was detected among the negative samples. The results showed 100% concordance with the genotypes previously identified. Conclusions: The new assay was able to detect the presence of two different carbapenemase gene type by real-time PCR.

Keywords: resistance, b-lactamases, E. coli, real-time PCR

Procedia PDF Downloads 401
18494 Modelling of Cavity Growth in Underground Coal Gasification

Authors: Preeti Aghalayam, Jay Shah

Abstract:

Underground coal gasification (UCG) is the in-situ gasification of unmineable coals to produce syngas. In UCG, gasifying agents are injected into the coal seam, and a reactive cavity is formed due to coal consumption. The cavity formed is typically hemispherical, and this report consists of the MATLAB model of the UCG cavity to predict the composition of the output gases. There are seven radial and two time-variant ODEs. A MATLAB solver (ode15s) is used to solve the radial ODEs from the above equations. Two for-loops are implemented in the model, i.e., one for time variations and another for radial variation. In the time loop, the radial odes are solved using the MATLAB solver. The radial loop is nested inside the time loop, and the density odes are numerically solved using the Euler method. The model is validated by comparing it with the literature results of laboratory-scale experiments. The model predicts the radial and time variation of the product gases inside the cavity.

Keywords: gasification agent, MATLAB model, syngas, underground coal gasification (UCG)

Procedia PDF Downloads 193
18493 Spatial Spillovers in Forecasting Market Diffusion of Electric Mobility

Authors: Reinhold Kosfeld, Andreas Gohs

Abstract:

In the reduction of CO₂ emissions, the transition to environmentally friendly transport modes has a high significance. In Germany, the climate protection programme 2030 includes various measures for promoting electromobility. Although electric cars at present hold a market share of just over one percent, its stock more than doubled in the past two years. Special measures like tax incentives and a buyer’s premium have been put in place to promote the shift towards electric cars and boost their diffusion. Knowledge of the future expansion of electric cars is required for planning purposes and adaptation measures. With a view of these objectives, we particularly investigate the effect of spatial spillovers on forecasting performance. For this purpose, time series econometrics and panel econometric models are designed for pure electric cars and hybrid cars for Germany. Regional forecasting models with spatial interactions are consistently estimated by using spatial econometric techniques. Regional data on the stocks of electric cars and their determinants at the district level (NUTS 3 regions) are available from the Federal Motor Transport Authority (Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt) for the period 2017 - 2019. A comparative examination of aggregated regional and national predictions provides quantitative information on accuracy gains by allowing for spatial spillovers in forecasting electric mobility.

Keywords: electric mobility, forecasting market diffusion, regional panel data model, spatial interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
18492 Determining Coordinates of Ultra-Light Drones Based on the Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) Method

Authors: Nguyen Huy Hoang, Do Thanh Quan, Tran Vu Kien

Abstract:

The use of the active radar to measure the coordinates of ultra-light drones is frequently difficult due to long-distance, absolutely small radar cross-section (RCS) and obstacles. Since ultra-light drones are usually controlled by the Time Difference of Arrival (RF), the paper proposed a method to measure the coordinates of ultra-light drones in the space based on the arrival time of the signal at receiving antennas and the time difference of arrival (TDOA). The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is really potential and highly accurate.

Keywords: ultra-light drone, TDOA, radar cross-section (RCS), RF

Procedia PDF Downloads 190
18491 Designing User Interfaces for Just in Time Enterprise Solution

Authors: Romi Dey

Abstract:

Introduction: One of the most important criteria for technology to sustain and grow is through it’s elaborate and intuitive design methodology and design thinking. Designing for enterprise applications that cater to Just in Time Technology is one of the most challenging and detailed processes any User Experience Designer would come across. Description: The basic principles of Design, when applied to tailor to these technologies, creates an immense challenge and that’s how a set of redefined and revised design principles that can be applied to designing any Just In Time manufacturing solution. Findings: The thorough process of understanding the end user, their existing pain points which they’ve faced in the real world, their responsibilities and expectations, the core needs and last but not the least the demands, creates havoc nurturing of the design methodologies for the Just in Time solutions. With respect to the business aspect, design and design principles play a strong role in any form of innovation. Conclusion: Innovation and knowledge about the latest technologies are the keywords in the manufacturing industry. It becomes crucial for the product development team to be precise in their understanding of the technology and being sure of end users expectation.

Keywords: design thinking, enterprise application, Just in Time, user experience design

Procedia PDF Downloads 161
18490 Airy Wave Packet for a Particle in a Time-Dependant Linear Potential

Authors: M. Berrehail, F. Benamira

Abstract:

We study the quantum motion of a particle in the presence of a time- dependent linear potential using an operator invariant that is quadratic in p and linear in q within the framework of the Lewis-Riesenfeld invariant, The special invariant operator proposed in this work is demonstrated to be an Hermitian operator which has an Airy wave packet as its Eigenfunction

Keywords: airy wave packet, ivariant, time-dependent linear potential, unitary transformation

Procedia PDF Downloads 483
18489 West Meets Islam in Contemporary World, Leadership Perspective

Authors: Muhamad Rosdi Senam, Khairuddin Abdul Rashid, Azila Ahmad Sarkawi, Rapiah Mohd Zaini

Abstract:

Islam is a way of life than merely a religion that covers all facets of Muslim affairs and lifes. It provides the most comprehensive values, principles and guidance that are based on divine sources to all mankind in all spheres including leadership. Islamic leadership is all encompassing and holistic model of leadership that offers the tauhidic paradigm, spiritual and ethical (akhlaq) dimensions that are absent in the modern conventional leadership theories. Islamic leadership has a glorious history of great success from the era of the Prophet S.A.W. and the following caliphs that had conquered almost one third of the world territory during that time, as their leadership was paragon of excellence that followed to the spirits and teachings of the Qur’an and the Sunnah. As the modern civilisation designed by the West takes place, the modern leadership theories has been dominating the world and literature including those in the Muslim countries. However, it is clear that values and principles derived from Islam and the West are distinct, as the Islamic ones are based on divine, the non-Islamics are not indeed as there are based on human rational and judgement. Recent development in business organisations and literature have seen the tendency towards moral, ethical, even spiritual and positive form of leadership such as servant leadership, ethical leadership, authentic leadership and spiritual leadership that found its root in the Islamic model of leadership.This development has surfaced after series of serious ethical dilemma, corporate scandals and leadership crisis in the West. This paper aims to draw a comparative discussions and analysis between the modern conventional leadership theories with the Islamic leadership by highlighting the key dimensions that distinguish the two. It is suggested in this paper that the core dimensions of Islamic leadership are spiritual dimension, moral and ethical dimension and physical dimension which is also paralleled with the roles of khalifah of Allah on earth; relationship with Allah, relationship with human beings and relationship with the environment respectively. Islam is a way of life than merely a religion that covers all facets of Muslim affairs and lifes. It provides the most comprehensive values, principles and guidance that are based on divine sources to all mankind in all spheres including leadership. Islamic leadership is all encompassing and holistic model of leadership that offers the tauhidic paradigm, spiritual and ethical (akhlaq) dimensions that are absent in the modern conventional leadership theories. Islamic leadership has a glorious history of great success from the era of the Prophet S.A.W. and the following caliphs that had conquered almost one third of the world territory during that time, as their leadership was paragon of excellence that followed to the spirits and teachings of the Qur’an and the Sunnah. As the modern civilisation designed by the West takes place, the modern leadership theories has been dominating the world and literature including those in the Muslim countries. However, it is clear that values and principles derived from Islam and the West are distinct, as the Islamic ones are based on divine, the non-Islamics are not indeed as there are based on human rational and judgement. Recent development in business organisations and literature have seen the tendency towards moral, ethical, even spiritual and positive form of leadership such as servant leadership, ethical leadership, authentic leadership and spiritual leadership that found its root in the Islamic model of leadership.This development has surfaced after series of serious ethical dilemma, corporate scandals and leadership crisis in the West. This paper aims to draw a comparative discussions and analysis between the modern conventional leadership theories with the Islamic leadership by highlighting the key dimensions that distinguish the two. It is suggested in this paper that the core dimensions of Islamic leadership are spiritual dimension, moral and ethical dimension and physical dimension which is also paralleled with the roles of khalifah of Allah on earth; relationship with Allah, relationship with human beings and relationship with the environment respectively.

Keywords: conventional leadership, Islamic leadership, comparative, dimensions

Procedia PDF Downloads 515
18488 Theoretical Approach and Proof of Concept Implementation of Adaptive Partition Scheduling Module for Linux

Authors: Desislav Andreev, Veselin Stanev

Abstract:

Linux operating system continues to gain popularity with every passed year. This is due to its open-source license and a great number of distributions, covering users’ needs. At first glance it seems that Linux can be integrated in every type of systems – it is already present in personal computers, smartphones and even in some embedded systems like Raspberry Pi. However, Linux still does not meet the performance and security requirements to run effectively on a real-time system. Real-time systems are very time-restricted – their processes have to execute and finish at strict time intervals. The Completely Fair Scheduler present in Linux does not have such scheduling capabilities and it is not able to ensure that critical-time processes will execute on time. One of the ways to solve this problem is implementing an Adaptive Partition Scheduler solution similar to that present in QNX Neutrino operating system. This type of scheduling divides the CPU in multiple adaptive partitions where each partition holds a percentage of CPU usage called budget, which allows optimal usage of the CPU resources and also provides protection against cyber attacks such as Denial of Service. This approach will also benefit systems, where functional safety is highly demanded, such as the instrumental clusters in the Automotive industry. The purpose of this paper is to present a concept of Adaptive Partition Scheduler designed for Linux-based operating systems.

Keywords: adaptive partitions, Linux kernel modules, real-time systems, scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 91
18487 Modeling Environmental, Social, and Governance Financial Assets with Lévy Subordinated Processes and Option Pricing

Authors: Abootaleb Shirvani, Svetlozar Rachev

Abstract:

ESG stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance and is a non-financial factor that investors use to specify material risks and growth opportunities in their analysis process. ESG ratings provide a quantitative measure of socially responsible investment, and it is essential to incorporate ESG ratings when modeling the dynamics of asset returns. In this article, we propose a triple subordinated Lévy process for incorporating numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory to model the time series properties of the stock returns. The motivation for introducing three layers of subordinator is twofold. The first two layers of subordinator capture the skew and fat-tailed properties of the stock return distribution that cannot be explained well by the existing Lévy subordinated model. The third layer of the subordinator introduces ESG valuation and incorporates numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory and option pricing. We employ the triple subordinator Lévy model for developing the ESG-valued stock return model, derive the implied ESG score surfaces for Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon stock returns, and compare the shape of the ESG implied surface scores for these stocks.

Keywords: ESG scores, dynamic asset pricing theory, multiple subordinated modeling, Lévy processes, option pricing

Procedia PDF Downloads 74
18486 Fast Terminal Synergetic Converter Control

Authors: Z. Bouchama, N. Essounbouli, A. Hamzaoui, M. N. Harmas

Abstract:

A new robust finite time synergetic controller is presented based on recently developed synergetic control methodology and a terminal attractor technique. A Fast Terminal Synergetic Control (FTSC) is proposed for controlling DC-DC buck converter. Unlike Synergetic Control (SC) and sliding mode control, the proposed control scheme has the characteristics of finite time convergence and chattering free phenomena. Simulation of stabilization and reference tracking for buck converter systems illustrates the approach effectiveness while stability is assured in the Lyapunov sense and converse Lyapunov results involving scalar differential inequalities are given for finite-time stability.

Keywords: dc-dc buck converter, synergetic control, finite time convergence, terminal synergetic control, fast terminal synergetic control, Lyapunov

Procedia PDF Downloads 449
18485 Radial Basis Surrogate Model Integrated to Evolutionary Algorithm for Solving Computation Intensive Black-Box Problems

Authors: Abdulbaset Saad, Adel Younis, Zuomin Dong

Abstract:

For design optimization with high-dimensional expensive problems, an effective and efficient optimization methodology is desired. This work proposes a series of modification to the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving computation Intensive Black-Box Problems. The proposed methodology is called Radial Basis Meta-Model Algorithm Assisted Differential Evolutionary (RBF-DE), which is a global optimization algorithm based on the meta-modeling techniques. A meta-modeling assisted DE is proposed to solve computationally expensive optimization problems. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) model is used as a surrogate model to approximate the expensive objective function, while DE employs a mechanism to dynamically select the best performing combination of parameters such as differential rate, cross over probability, and population size. The proposed algorithm is tested on benchmark functions and real life practical applications and problems. The test results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is promising and performs well compared to other optimization algorithms. The proposed algorithm is capable of converging to acceptable and good solutions in terms of accuracy, number of evaluations, and time needed to converge.

Keywords: differential evolution, engineering design, expensive computations, meta-modeling, radial basis function, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 388
18484 A Real-time Classification of Lying Bodies for Care Application of Elderly Patients

Authors: E. Vazquez-Santacruz, M. Gamboa-Zuniga

Abstract:

In this paper, we show a methodology for bodies classification in lying state using HOG descriptors and pressures sensors positioned in a matrix form (14 x 32 sensors) on the surface where bodies lie down. it will be done in real time. Our system is embedded in a care robot that can assist the elderly patient and medical staff around to get a better quality of life in and out of hospitals. Due to current technology a limited number of sensors is used, wich results in low-resolution data array, that will be used as image of 14 x 32 pixels. Our work considers the problem of human posture classification with few information (sensors), applying digital process to expand the original data of the sensors and so get more significant data for the classification, however, this is done with low-cost algorithms to ensure the real-time execution.

Keywords: real-time classification, sensors, robots, health care, elderly patients, artificial intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 855
18483 Transport Mode Selection under Lead Time Variability and Emissions Constraint

Authors: Chiranjit Das, Sanjay Jharkharia

Abstract:

This study is focused on transport mode selection under lead time variability and emissions constraint. In order to reduce the carbon emissions generation due to transportation, organization has often faced a dilemmatic choice of transport mode selection since logistic cost and emissions reduction are complementary with each other. Another important aspect of transportation decision is lead-time variability which is least considered in transport mode selection problem. Thus, in this study, we provide a comprehensive mathematical based analytical model to decide transport mode selection under emissions constraint. We also extend our work through analysing the effect of lead time variability in the transport mode selection by a sensitivity analysis. In order to account lead time variability into the model, two identically normally distributed random variables are incorporated in this study including unit lead time variability and lead time demand variability. Therefore, in this study, we are addressing following questions: How the decisions of transport mode selection will be affected by lead time variability? How lead time variability will impact on total supply chain cost under carbon emissions? To accomplish these objectives, a total transportation cost function is developed including unit purchasing cost, unit transportation cost, emissions cost, holding cost during lead time, and penalty cost for stock out due to lead time variability. A set of modes is available to transport each node, in this paper, we consider only four transport modes such as air, road, rail, and water. Transportation cost, distance, emissions level for each transport mode is considered as deterministic and static in this paper. Each mode is having different emissions level depending on the distance and product characteristics. Emissions cost is indirectly affected by the lead time variability if there is any switching of transport mode from lower emissions prone transport mode to higher emissions prone transport mode in order to reduce penalty cost. We provide a numerical analysis in order to study the effectiveness of the mathematical model. We found that chances of stock out during lead time will be higher due to the higher variability of lead time and lad time demand. Numerical results show that penalty cost of air transport mode is negative that means chances of stock out zero, but, having higher holding and emissions cost. Therefore, air transport mode is only selected when there is any emergency order to reduce penalty cost, otherwise, rail and road transport is the most preferred mode of transportation. Thus, this paper is contributing to the literature by a novel approach to decide transport mode under emissions cost and lead time variability. This model can be extended by studying the effect of lead time variability under some other strategic transportation issues such as modal split option, full truck load strategy, and demand consolidation strategy etc.

Keywords: carbon emissions, inventory theoretic model, lead time variability, transport mode selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 420
18482 The Impact of Community Settlement on Leisure Time Use and Body Composition in Determining Physical Lifestyles among Women

Authors: Mawarni Mohamed, Sharifah Shahira A. Hamid

Abstract:

Leisure time is an important component to offset the sedentary lifestyle of the people. Women tend to benefit from leisure activities not only to reduce stress but also to provide opportunities for well-being and self-satisfaction. This study was conducted to investigate body composition and leisure time use among women in Selangor from the influences of community settlement. A total of 419 women aged 18-65 years were selected to participate in this study. Descriptive statistics, t-test and ANOVA were used to analyze the level of physical activity and the relationship between leisure-time use and body composition were made to analyze the physical lifestyles. The results showed that women with normal body composition seem to be involved in more passive activities than women with less weight gain and obesity. Thus, the study recommended that the government and other health and recreational agencies should develop more places and activities suitable for leisure preference for women in their community settlement so they become more interested to engage in more active recreational and physical activities.

Keywords: body composition, community settlement, leisure time, physical lifestyles

Procedia PDF Downloads 447
18481 Improving the Residence Time of a Rectangular Contact Tank by Varying the Geometry Using Numerical Modeling

Authors: Yamileth P. Herrera, Ronald R. Gutierrez, Carlos, Pacheco-Bustos

Abstract:

This research aims at the numerical modeling of a rectangular contact tank in order to improve the hydrodynamic behavior and the retention time of the water to be treated with the disinfecting agent. The methodology to be followed includes a hydraulic analysis of the tank to observe the fluid velocities, which will allow evidence of low-speed areas that may generate pathogenic agent incubation or high-velocity areas, which may decrease the optimal contact time between the disinfecting agent and the microorganisms to be eliminated. Based on the results of the numerical model, the efficiency of the tank under the geometric and hydraulic conditions considered will be analyzed. This would allow the performance of the tank to be improved before starting a construction process, thus avoiding unnecessary costs.

Keywords: contact tank, numerical models, hydrodynamic modeling, residence time

Procedia PDF Downloads 161
18480 Parametric Non-Linear Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Frames with Supplemental Damping Systems

Authors: Daniele Losanno, Giorgio Serino

Abstract:

This paper focuses on parametric analysis of reinforced concrete structures equipped with supplemental damping braces. Practitioners still luck sufficient data for current design of damper added structures and often reduce the real model to a pure damper braced structure even if this assumption is neither realistic nor conservative. In the present study, the damping brace is modelled as made by a linear supporting brace connected in series with the viscous/hysteretic damper. Deformation capacity of existing structures is usually not adequate to undergo the design earthquake. In spite of this, additional dampers could be introduced strongly limiting structural damage to acceptable values, or in some cases, reducing frame response to elastic behavior. This work is aimed at providing useful considerations for retrofit of existing buildings by means of supplemental damping braces. The study explicitly takes into consideration variability of (a) relative frame to supporting brace stiffness, (b) dampers’ coefficient (viscous coefficient or yielding force) and (c) non-linear frame behavior. Non-linear time history analysis has been run to account for both dampers’ behavior and non-linear plastic hinges modelled by Pivot hysteretic type. Parametric analysis based on previous studies on SDOF or MDOF linear frames provide reference values for nearly optimal damping systems design. With respect to bare frame configuration, seismic response of the damper-added frame is strongly improved, limiting deformations to acceptable values far below ultimate capacity. Results of the analysis also demonstrated the beneficial effect of stiffer supporting braces, thus highlighting inadequacy of simplified pure damper models. At the same time, the effect of variable damping coefficient and yielding force has to be treated as an optimization problem.

Keywords: brace stiffness, dissipative braces, non-linear analysis, plastic hinges, reinforced concrete frames

Procedia PDF Downloads 284
18479 Driver Behavior Analysis and Inter-Vehicular Collision Simulation Approach

Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

Abstract:

The safety test of deploying intelligent connected vehicles (ICVs) on the road network is a critical challenge. Road traffic network simulation can be used to test the functionality of ICVs, which is not only time-saving and less energy-consuming but also can create scenarios with car collisions. However, the relationship between different human driver behaviors and the car-collision occurrences has been not understood clearly; meanwhile, the procedure of car-collisions generation in the traffic numerical simulators is not fully integrated. In this paper, we propose an approach to identify specific driver profiles from real driven data; then, we replicate them in numerical traffic simulations with the purpose of generating inter-vehicular collisions. We proposed three profiles: (i) 'aggressive': short time-headway, (ii) 'inattentive': long reaction time, and (iii) 'normal' with intermediate values of reaction time and time-headway. These three driver profiles are extracted from the NGSIM dataset and simulated using the intelligent driver model (IDM), with an extension of reaction time. At last, the generation of inter-vehicular collisions is performed by varying the percentages of different profiles.

Keywords: vehicular collisions, human driving behavior, traffic modeling, car-following models, microscopic traffic simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 165
18478 Intermediate-Term Impact of Taiwan High-Speed Rail (HSR) and Land Use on Spatial Patterns of HSR Travel

Authors: Tsai Yu-hsin, Chung Yi-Hsin

Abstract:

The employment of an HSR system, resulting in elevation in the inter-city/-region accessibility, is likely to promote spatial interaction between places in the HSR and extended territory. The inter-city/-region travel via HSR could be, among others, affected by the land use, transportation, and location of the HSR station at both trip origin and destination ends. However, relatively few insights have been shed on these impacts and spatial patterns of the HSR travel. The research purposes, as phase one of a series of HSR related research, of this study are threefold: to analyze the general spatial patterns of HSR trips, such as the spatial distribution of trip origins and destinations; to analyze if specific land use, transportation characteristics, and trip characteristics affect HSR trips in terms of the use of HSR, the distribution of trip origins and destinations, and; to analyze the socio-economic characteristics of HSR travelers. With the Taiwan HSR starting operation in 2007, this study emphasizes on the intermediate-term impact of HSR, which is made possible with the population and housing census and industry and commercial census data and a station area intercept survey conducted in the summer 2014. The analysis will be conducted at the city, inter-city, and inter-region spatial levels, as necessary and required. The analysis tools include descriptive statistics and multivariate analysis with the assistance of SPSS, HLM and ArcGIS. The findings, on the one hand, can provide policy implications for associated land use, transportation plan and the site selection of HSR station. On the other hand, on the travel the findings are expected to provide insights that can help explain how land use and real estate values could be affected by HSR in following phases of this series of research.

Keywords: high speed rail, land use, travel, spatial pattern

Procedia PDF Downloads 453
18477 Joint Modeling of Longitudinal and Time-To-Event Data with Latent Variable

Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

Abstract:

Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
18476 Time's Arrow and Entropy: Violations to the Second Law of Thermodynamics Disrupt Time Perception

Authors: Jason Clarke, Michaela Porubanova, Angela Mazzoli, Gulsah Kut

Abstract:

What accounts for our perception that time inexorably passes in one direction, from the past to the future, the so-called arrow of time, given that the laws of physics permit motion in one temporal direction to also happen in the reverse temporal direction? Modern physics says that the reason for time’s unidirectional physical arrow is the relationship between time and entropy, the degree of disorder in the universe, which is evolving from low entropy (high order; thermal disequilibrium) toward high entropy (high disorder; thermal equilibrium), the second law of thermodynamics. Accordingly, our perception of the direction of time, from past to future, is believed to emanate as a result of the natural evolution of entropy from low to high, with low entropy defining our notion of ‘before’ and high entropy defining our notion of ‘after’. Here we explored this proposed relationship between entropy and the perception of time’s arrow. We predicted that if the brain has some mechanism for detecting entropy, whose output feeds into processes involved in constructing our perception of the direction of time, presentation of violations to the expectation that low entropy defines ‘before’ and high entropy defines ‘after’ would alert this mechanism, leading to measurable behavioral effects, namely a disruption in duration perception. To test this hypothesis, participants were shown briefly-presented (1000 ms or 500 ms) computer-generated visual dynamic events: novel 3D shapes that were seen either to evolve from whole figures into parts (low to high entropy condition) or were seen in the reverse direction: parts that coalesced into whole figures (high to low entropy condition). On each trial, participants were instructed to reproduce the duration of their visual experience of the stimulus by pressing and releasing the space bar. To ensure that attention was being deployed to the stimuli, a secondary task was to report the direction of the visual event (forward or reverse motion). Participants completed 60 trials. As predicted, we found that duration reproduction was significantly longer for the high to low entropy condition compared to the low to high entropy condition (p=.03). This preliminary data suggests the presence of a neural mechanism that detects entropy, which is used by other processes to construct our perception of the direction of time or time’s arrow.

Keywords: time perception, entropy, temporal illusions, duration perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
18475 Gaze Patterns of Skilled and Unskilled Sight Readers Focusing on the Cognitive Processes Involved in Reading Key and Time Signatures

Authors: J. F. Viljoen, Catherine Foxcroft

Abstract:

Expert sight readers rely on their ability to recognize patterns in scores, their inner hearing and prediction skills in order to perform complex sight reading exercises. They also have the ability to observe deviations from expected patterns in musical scores. This increases the “Eye-hand span” (reading ahead of the point of playing) in order to process the elements in the score. The study aims to investigate the gaze patterns of expert and non-expert sight readers focusing on key and time signatures. 20 musicians were tasked with playing 12 sight reading examples composed for one hand and five examples composed for two hands to be performed on a piano keyboard. These examples were composed in different keys and time signatures and included accidentals and changes of time signature to test this theory. Results showed that the experts fixate more and for longer on key and time signatures as well as deviations in examples for two hands than the non-expert group. The inverse was true for the examples for one hand, where expert sight readers showed fewer and shorter fixations on key and time signatures as well as deviations. This seems to suggest that experts focus more on the key and time signatures as well as deviations in complex scores to facilitate sight reading. The examples written for one appeared to be too easy for the expert sight readers, compromising gaze patterns.

Keywords: cognition, eye tracking, musical notation, sight reading

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
18474 Volarization of Sugarcane Bagasse: The Effect of Alkali Concentration, Soaking Time and Temperature on Fibre Yield

Authors: Tamrat Tesfaye, Tilahun Seyoum, K. Shabaridharan

Abstract:

The objective of this paper was to determine the effect of NaOH concentration, soaking time, soaking temperature and their interaction on percentage yield of fibre extract using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). A Box-Behnken design was employed to optimize the extraction process of cellulosic fibre from sugar cane by-product bagasse using low alkaline extraction technique. The quadratic model with the optimal technological conditions resulted in a maximum fibre yield of 56.80% at 0.55N NaOH concentration, 4 h steeping time and 60ᵒC soaking temperature. Among the independent variables concentration was found to be the most significant (P < 0.005) variable and the interaction effect of concentration and soaking time leads to securing the optimized processes.

Keywords: sugarcane bagasse, low alkaline, Box-Behnken, fibre

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
18473 Modelling Hydrological Time Series Using Wakeby Distribution

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: generalized extreme values, likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
18472 Treatment of High Concentration Cutting Fluid Wastewater by Ceramic Membrane Bioreactor

Authors: Kai-Shiang Chang, Shiao-Shing Chen, Saikat Sinha Ray, Hung-Te Hsu

Abstract:

In recent years, membrane bioreactors (MBR) have been widely utilized as it can effectively replace conventional activated sludge process (CAS). Membrane bioreactor (MBR) is found to be more effective technology compared to other conventional activated sludge process and advanced membrane separation technique. Additionally, as far as the MBR is concerned, it is having excellent control of sludge retention time (SRT) and hydraulic retention time (HRT) and conducive to the retention of high concentration of sludge biomass. The membrane bioreactor (MBR) can effectively reduce footprint in terms of area and omit the secondary processing procedures in the conventional activated sludge process (CAS). Currently, as per the membrane technology, the ceramic membrane is found to have highly strong anti-acid-base properties, and it is more suitable than polymeric membrane while using for backwash and chemical cleaning. This study is based upon the treatment of Cutting Fluid wastewater, as the Cutting Fluid is widely used in the cutting equipment. However, the Cutting Fluid wastewater is very difficult to treat. In this study, the ceramic membrane was used and combine with of MBR system to treat the Cutting Fluid wastewater. In this present study, different kind of chemical coagulants have been utilized for pretreatment purpose in order to get the supernatant and simultaneously this wastewater (supernatant) was treated by MBR process. Nevertheless, ceramic membrane has three advantages such as high mechanical strength, drug resistance and reuse. During the experiment, the backwash technique was used for every interval of 10 minutes in order to avoid fouling of the membrane. In this study, during pretreatment the Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) removal efficiency was found to be 71-86% and oil removal efficiency was analyzed to be 83-92%. This pretreatment study suggests that it is quiet effective methodology to reduce COD and oil concentration. Finally, In the MBR system when the HRT is more than 7.5 hour, the COD removal efficiency was found to be 87-93% and could achieve 100% oil removal efficiency. Coagulation test series were seen in Refs coagulants for the treatment of wastewater containing cutting oil with better oil and COD removal efficiency. The results also showed that the oil removal efficiency in the MBR system could reduce the oil content to less than 1 mg / L when the oil quality was 126 mg / L. Therefore, in this paper, the performance of membrane bioreactor by utilizing ceramic membrane has been demonstrated for treatment of Cutting Fluid wastewater.

Keywords: membrane bioreactor, cutting fluid, oil, chemical oxygen demand

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18471 QSAR Modeling of Germination Activity of a Series of 5-(4-Substituent-Phenoxy)-3-Methylfuran-2(5H)-One Derivatives with Potential of Strigolactone Mimics toward Striga hermonthica

Authors: Strahinja Kovačević, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Lidija Jevrić, Cristina Prandi, Piermichele Kobauri

Abstract:

The present study is based on molecular modeling of a series of twelve 5-(4-substituent-phenoxy)-3-methylfuran-2(5H)-one derivatives which have potential of strigolactones mimics toward Striga hermonthica. The first step of the analysis included the calculation of molecular descriptors which numerically describe the structures of the analyzed compounds. The descriptors ALOGP (lipophilicity), AClogS (water solubility) and BBB (blood-brain barrier penetration), served as the input variables in multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling of germination activity toward S. hermonthica. Two MLR models were obtained. The first MLR model contains ALOGP and AClogS descriptors, while the second one is based on these two descriptors plus BBB descriptor. Despite the braking Topliss-Costello rule in the second MLR model, it has much better statistical and cross-validation characteristics than the first one. The ALOGP and AClogS descriptors are often very suitable predictors of the biological activity of many compounds. They are very important descriptors of the biological behavior and availability of a compound in any biological system (i.e. the ability to pass through the cell membranes). BBB descriptor defines the ability of a molecule to pass through the blood-brain barrier. Besides the lipophilicity of a compound, this descriptor carries the information of the molecular bulkiness (its value strongly depends on molecular bulkiness). According to the obtained results of MLR modeling, these three descriptors are considered as very good predictors of germination activity of the analyzed compounds toward S. hermonthica seeds. This article is based upon work from COST Action (FA1206), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).

Keywords: chemometrics, germination activity, molecular modeling, QSAR analysis, strigolactones

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18470 An Econometric Analysis of the Impacts of Inflation on the Economic Growth of South Africa

Authors: Gisele Mah, Paul Saah

Abstract:

The rising rates of inflation are hindering economic growth in developing nations. Hence, this study investigated the effects of inflation rates on the economic growth of South Africa using the secondary time series data from 1987 to 2022. The main objectives of this study were to investigate the long run relationship between inflation and economic growth, and also to determine the causality direction between these two variables. The study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test of co-integration to investigate whether there is a long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth. The Pairwise Granger causality approach was employed to determine the second objective, which is the direction of causality. The study discovered only one co-integration relationship between our variables and it was between inflation and economic growth. The results showed that there is a negative and significant relationship between inflation and economic growth. There appeared to be a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and exchange rate. The interest rates have shown to be negative and insignificant in explaining economic growth. The study also established that inflation does Granger cause economic growth which is given as GDP. Similarly, the study discovered that inflation Granger causes exchange rates. Therefore, the study recommends that inflation should be decreased in South Africa, in order for economic growth to increase. Contrary, this study recommends that South Africa should increase its exchange rates, in order for economic growth to also increase.

Keywords: inflation rate, economic growth, South Africa, autoregressive distributed lag model

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18469 The Influence of Alvar Aalto on the Early Work of Álvaro Siza

Authors: Eduardo Jorge Cabral dos Santos Fernandes

Abstract:

The expression ‘Porto School’, usually associated with an educational institution, the School of Fine Arts of Porto, is applied for the first time with the sense of an architectural trend by Nuno Portas in a text published in 1983. The expression is used to characterize a set of works by Porto architects, in which common elements are found, namely the desire to reuse languages and forms of the German and Dutch rationalism of the twenties, using the work of Alvar Aalto as a mediation for the reinterpretation of these models. In the same year, Álvaro Siza classifies the Finnish architect as a miscegenation agent who transforms experienced models and introduces them to different realities in a text published in Jornal de Letras, Artes e Ideias. The influence of foreign models and their adaptation to the context has been a recurrent theme in Portuguese architecture, which finds important contributions in the writings of Alexandre Alves Costa, at this time. However, the identification of these characteristics in Siza’s work is not limited to the Portuguese theoretical production: it is the recognition of this attitude towards the context that leads Kenneth Frampton to include Siza in the restricted group of architects who embody Critical Regionalism (in his book Modern architecture: a critical history). For Frampton, his work focuses on the territory and on the consequences of the intervention in the context, viewing architecture as a tectonic fact rather than a series of scenographic episodes and emphasizing site-specific aspects (topography, light, climate). Therefore, the motto of this paper is the dichotomous opposition between foreign influences and adaptation to the context in the early work of Álvaro Siza (designed in the sixties) in which the influence (theoretical, methodological, and formal) of Alvar Aalto manifests itself in the form and the language: the pool at Quinta da Conceição, the Seaside Pools and the Tea House (three works in Leça da Palmeira) and the Lordelo Cooperative (in Porto). This work is part of a more comprehensive project, which considers several case studies throughout the Portuguese architect's vast career, built in Portugal and abroad, in order to obtain a holistic view.

Keywords: Alvar Aalto, Álvaro Siza, foreign influences, adaptation to the context

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18468 Numerical Experiments for the Purpose of Studying Space-Time Evolution of Various Forms of Pulse Signals in the Collisional Cold Plasma

Authors: N. Kh. Gomidze, I. N. Jabnidze, K. A. Makharadze

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The influence of inhomogeneities of plasma and statistical characteristics on the propagation of signal is very actual in wireless communication systems. While propagating in the media, the deformation and evaluation of the signal in time and space take place and on the receiver we get a deformed signal. The present article is dedicated to studying the space-time evolution of rectangular, sinusoidal, exponential and bi-exponential impulses via numerical experiment in the collisional, cold plasma. The presented method is not based on the Fourier-presentation of the signal. Analytically, we have received the general image depicting the space-time evolution of the radio impulse amplitude that gives an opportunity to analyze the concrete results in the case of primary impulse.

Keywords: collisional, cold plasma, rectangular pulse signal, impulse envelope

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18467 Human-factor and Ergonomics in Bottling Lines

Authors: Parameshwaran Nair

Abstract:

Filling and packaging lines for bottling of beverages into glass, PET or aluminum containers require specialized expertise and a different configuration of equipment like – Filler, Warmer, Labeller, Crater/Recrater, Shrink Packer, Carton Erector, Carton Sealer, Date Coder, Palletizer, etc. Over the period of time, the packaging industry has evolved from manually operated single station machines to highly automized high-speed lines. Human factor and ergonomics have gained significant consideration in this course of transformation. A pre-requisite for such bottling lines, irrespective of the container type and size, is to be suitable for multi-format applications. It should also be able to handle format changeovers with minimal adjustment. It should have variable capacity and speeds, for providing great flexibility of use in managing accumulation times as a function of production characteristics. In terms of layout as well, it should demonstrate flexibility for operator movement and access to machine areas for maintenance. Packaging technology during the past few decades has risen to these challenges by a series of major breakthroughs interspersed with periods of refinement and improvement. The milestones are many and varied and are described briefly in this paper. In order to have a brief understanding of the human factor and ergonomics in the modern packaging lines, this paper, highlights the various technologies, design considerations and statutory requirements in packaging equipment for different types of containers used in India.

Keywords: human-factor, ergonomics, bottling lines, automized high-speed lines

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18466 The Effectiveness of the Counselling Module in Counseling Interventions for Low Performance Employees

Authors: Hazaila Hassan

Abstract:

This research aims and discusses about the effectiveness of the Psynnova i-Behaviour Modification Technique (iBMT) module towards the change in behaviour of low-performing employees. The purpose of the study is to examine the effectiveness of the Psynnova Module on changing behaviour through five factors among low-performing employees in the public sector. The five main factors/constructs were cognitive enhancement and rationality, emotional stability, attitude alignment and adjustment, social skills development and psycho-spirituality enhancement. In this research, 5 main constructs will be using to indicate behaviour changing performance of the employees after attending The Psynnova Program that using this Psynnova IBMT Module. The respondents are among those who have low scores in terms of annual performance through annual performance value reports and have gone through various stages before being required to attend Psynnova Program. Besides that, the research plan was also to critically examine and understand the change in behaviour among the low-performing employees through the five dimensions in the Psynnova Module. A total of 50 respondent will purposively sampled to be the respondents of this research. This study will use the Experimental Method to One Group Purposively Pre and Post Test using the Time Series Design. Experimental SPSS software version 22.0 will be used to analyse this data. Hopefully this research can see the changing of their behaviour in five factors as an indicator to the respondent after attending the Psynnova Programme. Findings from this study are also used to propose to assisting psychologist to see the changes that occurred to the respondents with the best framework of behaviour changing for them.

Keywords: five dimension of behaviour changing, among adult, low performance, modul effectiveness

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