Search results for: maturity transformation risk

Authors: Imtiaz Ali, Imam Mansoor

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Investigations as a part of the academic study were undertaken to identify and evaluate the significant risks associated with the construction of K-span buildings in the region of UAE. Primary field data was collected through questionnaires obtaining specific open and close-ended questions from carefully selected construction firms, civil engineers and, construction manager regarding risks associated to K-span building construction. Historical data available for other regions of the same construction technique was available which was compared for identifying various non-critical and critical risk parameters by comparative evaluation techniques to come up with important risks and potential sources for their control and minimization in K-Span buildings that is increasing in the region. The associated risks have been determined with their Relative Importance Index (RII) values of which Risk involved in Change of Design required by Owners carries the highest value (RII=0.79) whereas, Delayed Payment by Owner to Contractor is one of the least (RII=0.42) value. The overall findings suggest that most relative risks as quantified originate or associated with the contractors. It may be concluded that project proponents undertaking K-span projects in planning and budgeting the cost and delays should take into account of risks on high account if changes in design are also required any delays in the material by the supplier would then be a major risk in K-span project delay. Since projects are, less costly, so owners have limited budgets, then they hire small contractors, which are not highly competent contractors. So study suggests that owner should be aware of these types of risks associated with the construction of K-span buildings in order to make it cost effective.

Keywords: k-span buildings, k-span construction, risk management, relative improvement index (RII)

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The Public Private Partnership (PPP) contracts are produced taking into account the reason that the configuration, development, operation, and financing of an open undertaking is to be recompensed to a private gathering inside a solitary contractual structure. PPP venture dangers are ordinarily connected with the improvement and development of another resource and in addition its operation for a considerable length of time. Without a doubt, the most genuine outcomes of dangers amid the development period are value and time overwhelms. These occasions are amongst the most extensively utilized situations as a part of worth for cash investigation dangers. The wellsprings of danger change over the life cycle of a PPP venture. In customary acquirement, the general population segment ordinarily needs to cover all value trouble from these dangers. At any rate there is bounty confirmation to recommend that cost pain is a standard in a percentage of the tasks that are conveyed under customary obtainment. This paper means to research the effect of endogenous dangers on expense overwhelm in KSA PPP ventures. The paper displays a brief writing survey on PPP danger evaluating systems, and after that presents an affiliation model between danger occasions and expense invade in KSA. The paper finishes up with considerations for future examination.

Keywords: PPP, risk pricing, impact of risk, Endogenous risks

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Authors: Ndou Rembuluwani Moddy, Daniel Ter Goon, Takalani Grace Tshitangano, Lindelani Fhumudzani Mushaphi

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Obesity is a global public health problem. The study aimed to determine the risk factors associated with and the consequences of obesity among residents of Tshikota, Makhado Municipality, Limpopo Province, South Africa. A cross-sectional study involving 318 randomly selected adults aged 18-45 years residing at Tshikota, Makhado Local Municipality, South Africa. Sociodemographic information includes age, gender, educational level, occupation, behavioral lifestyle, environmental, psychological, and family history. Anthropometric, blood pressure, and blood glucose measurements followed standard procedure. The prevalence of obesity and overweight was 35.5% and 28.6%, respectively. About 75.2% of obese do not engage in physical activity. Most participants (63.5%) take meals three times a day, and 19.2% do not skip breakfast. Most participants do not have access to fruits and vegetables. Participants who were pre-hypertensive were 92(28.9%) and 32(10.1%) were in Stage 1 hypertension. Of the participants with Class 1 obesity, 40.9% were pre-hypertensive, and 15.2% were in Stage 1 hypertension. In Class 2 obesity, 37.8% were pre-hypertensive, and 26.7% were in Stage 1 hypertension. There was a significant difference between BMI and blood pressure among participants (p=0.00). About 6.1% of the participants in Class 1 obesity were at high risk, and 3.0% were at very high risk of glucose levels. Regarding cholesterol levels, 65 (20.4%) were at borderline, and 17(5.3%) were at high risk. There was no significant difference in BMI and cholesterol levels among participants (p= 0.20). The prevalence of obesity and overweight was high among residents of this setting. Age, marital and educational status, and employment were significantly associated with obesity. An obesity awareness campaign is crucial, and the availability of supermarkets and full-service grocery stores would provide accessibility to healthy food such as fruits and vegetables.

Keywords: obesity, overweight, risk factors, adults.

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Authors: Alexander Guzman Urbina, Atsushi Aoyama

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The sustainability of traditional technologies employed in energy and chemical infrastructure brings a big challenge for our society. Making decisions related with safety of industrial infrastructure, the values of accidental risk are becoming relevant points for discussion. However, the challenge is the reliability of the models employed to get the risk data. Such models usually involve large number of variables and with large amounts of uncertainty. The most efficient techniques to overcome those problems are built using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more specifically using hybrid systems such as Neuro-Fuzzy algorithms. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a hybrid algorithm for risk assessment trained using near-miss accident data. As mentioned above the sustainability of traditional technologies related with energy and chemical infrastructure constitutes one of the major challenges that today’s societies and firms are facing. Besides that, the adaptation of those technologies to the effects of the climate change in sensible environments represents a critical concern for safety and risk management. Regarding this issue argue that social consequences of catastrophic risks are increasing rapidly, due mainly to the concentration of people and energy infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, aggravated by the lack of knowledge about the risks. Additional to the social consequences described above, and considering the industrial sector as critical infrastructure due to its large impact to the economy in case of a failure the relevance of industrial safety has become a critical issue for the current society. Then, regarding the safety concern, pipeline operators and regulators have been performing risk assessments in attempts to evaluate accurately probabilities of failure of the infrastructure, and consequences associated with those failures. However, estimating accidental risks in critical infrastructure involves a substantial effort and costs due to number of variables involved, complexity and lack of information. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a well trained algorithm for risk assessment using deep learning, which could be capable to deal efficiently with the complexity and uncertainty. The advantage point of the deep learning using near-miss accidents data is that it could be employed in risk assessment as an efficient engineering tool to treat the uncertainty of the risk values in complex environments. The basic idea of using a Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines is focused in the objective of improve the validity of the risk values learning from near-miss accidents and imitating the human expertise scoring risks and setting tolerance levels. In summary, the method of Deep Learning for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment involves a regression analysis called group method of data handling (GMDH), which consists in the determination of the optimal configuration of the risk assessment model and its parameters employing polynomial theory.

Keywords: deep learning, risk assessment, neuro fuzzy, pipelines

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Authors: Peifang Hsieh

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New Taipei city faces increasing number of migrant families, in which the needs of children are sometimes neglected due to insufficient support from communities. Moreover, the traditional mindset of disengagement discourages citizens from preemptively identifying families in need in their communities, resulting in delay of prompt intervention from authorities concerned. To safeguard these vulnerable families, New Taipei city develops the 'Integrated Safety-Net Program for High-Risk Families' from 2011 by implementing the following measures: (A) New attitude and action: Instead of passively receiving reported case of high-risk families, the program takes proactive and preemptive approach to detect and respond at early stage, so the cases are prevented from worsening. In addition, cross-departmental integration mechanism is established to meet multiple needs of high-risk families. The children number added to the government care network is greatly increased to over 10,000, which is around 4.4 times the original number before the program. (B) New service points: 2000 city-wide convenience stores are added as service stations so that children in less privileged families can go to any of 24-hour convenience stores across the city to pick up free meals. This greatly increases the approachability to high-risk families. Moreover, the social welfare institutes will be notified with information left in convenience stores by children and follow up with further assistance, greatly enhancing chances of less privileged families being identified. (C) New Key Figures: Mobilize community officers and volunteers to detect and offer on-site assistance. Volunteer organizations within communities are connected to report and offer follow-up services in a more active manner. In total, from 2011 to 2015, 54,789 cases are identified through active care, benefiting 82,124 children. In addition, 87.49% family-cases in the program receiving comprehensive social assistance are no longer at high risk.

Keywords: cross department, high-risk families, public-private partnership, integrated safety net

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Authors: Rui Miguel Costa, Jose Pestana, David Costa, Paula Mangia, Catarina Correia, Mafalda Pinto Coelho

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There is lack of studies examining the relation of different heart rate variability (HRV) parameters with the risk of erectile dysfunction (ED) in younger men. Thus, the present study aimed at examining, in a nonclinical sample of men aged 19-39 years old (mean age = 23.98 years, SD = 4.90), the relations of risk of ED with the standard deviation of the heart rate (SD of HR), high and low frequency power of HRV, and low-to-high frequency HRV ratio. Eighty-three heterosexual Portuguese men completed the 5-item version of the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5) and HRV parameters were calculated from a 5-minute resting period. Risk of ED was determined by IIEF-5 scores of 21 or less. Fifteen men (18.1%) reported symptoms of ED (14 with mild and one with mild to moderate symptoms). Univariate analyses of variance revealed that risk of ED was related to lesser SD of HR and lesser low-frequency power, the two HRV parameters that express a coupling of higher vagal and sympathetic tone. Risk of ED was unrelated to high-frequency power and low-to-high frequency HRV ratio. Further, in a logistic regression, the risk of ED was independently predicted by older age and lower SD of HR, but not by low-frequency power, having a regular sexual partner, and cohabiting. The results provide preliminary evidence that, in younger men, a coupling of higher vagal and sympathetic tone, as indexed by the SD of HR, is important for erections. Greater resting SD of HR might reflect better vascular and interpersonal function via vagal tone coupled with greater motor mobilization to pursue sexual intercourse via sympathetic tone. Many interventions can elevate HRV; future research is warranted on how they can be tailored to treat ED in younger men.

Keywords: erectile dysfunction, heart rate variability, standard deviation of the heart rate, younger men

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Authors: Elias Nemer, Greg Vines

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Time-frequency transformation and spectral representations of audio signals are commonly used in various machine learning applications. Training networks on frequency features such as the Mel-Spectrogram or Cochleogram have been proven more effective and convenient than training on-time samples. In practical realizations, these features are created on a different processor and/or pre-computed and stored on disk, requiring additional efforts and making it difficult to experiment with different features. In this paper, we provide a PyTorch framework for creating various spectral features as well as time-frequency transformation and time-domain filter-banks using the built-in trainable conv1d() layer. This allows computing these features on the fly as part of a larger network and enabling easier experimentation with various combinations and parameters. Our work extends the work in the literature developed for that end: First, by adding more of these features and also by allowing the possibility of either starting from initialized kernels or training them from random values. The code is written as a template of classes and scripts that users may integrate into their own PyTorch classes or simply use as is and add more layers for various applications.

Keywords: neural networks Mel-Spectrogram, chromagram, cochleogram, discrete Fourrier transform, PyTorch conv1d()

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Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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Technology adoption models are extensively used in the literature to explore drivers and inhibitors affecting the adoption of Computer Assisted Audit Techniques and Tools (CAATTs). Further studies from recent years suggested additional factors that may affect technology adoption by CPA firms. However, the adoption of CAATTs by financial auditors differs from the adoption of technologies in other industries. This is a result of the unique characteristics of the auditing process, which are expressed in the audit risk elements and the risk-based auditing approach, as encoded in the auditing standards. Since these audit risk factors are not part of the existing models that are used to explain technology adoption, these models do not fully correspond to the specific needs and requirements of the auditing domain. The overarching objective of this qualitative research is to fill the gap in the literature, which exists as a result of using generic technology adoption models. Followed by a pretest and based on semi-structured in-depth interviews with 16 Israeli CPA firms of different sizes, this study aims to reveal determinants related to audit risk factors that influence the adoption of CAATTs in audits and proposes a new modeling approach for the successful adoption of CAATTs. The findings emphasize several important aspects: (1) while large CPA firms developed their own inner guidelines to assess the audit risk components, other CPA firms do not follow a formal and validated methodology to evaluate these risks; (2) large firms incorporate a variety of CAATTs, including self-developed advanced tools. On the other hand, small and mid-sized CPA firms incorporate standard CAATTs and still need to catch up to better understand what CAATTs can offer and how they can contribute to the quality of the audit; (3) the top management of mid-sized and small CPA firms should be more proactive and updated about CAATTs capabilities and contributions to audits; and (4) All CPA firms consider professionalism as a major challenge that must be constantly managed to ensure an optimal CAATTs operation. The study extends the existing knowledge of CAATTs adoption by looking at it from a risk-based auditing approach. It suggests a new model for CAATTs adoption by incorporating influencing audit risk factors that auditors should examine when considering CAATTs adoption. Since the model can be used in various audited scenarios and supports strategic, risk-based decisions, it maximizes the great potential of CAATTs on the quality of the audits. The results and insights can be useful to CPA firms, internal auditors, CAATTs developers and regulators. Moreover, it may motivate audit standard-setters to issue updated guidelines regarding CAATTs adoption in audits.

Keywords: audit risk, CAATTs, financial auditing, information technology, technology adoption models

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Authors: Olukayode Bamgbose, Feyisola Agboola, Adewale M. Taiwo, Olanrewaju Olujimi Oluwole Terebo, Azeez Soyingbe, Akeem Bamgbade

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The present study evaluated the contents and health risk assessment of metals determined in milk and milk product samples collected from the Abeokuta market. Forty-five milk and milk product (yoghurt) samples were digested and analysed for selected metals using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometric method. Health risk assessment was evaluated for hazard quotient (HQ), hazard index (HI), and cancer risk (CR). Data were subjected to descriptive and inferential statistics. The concentrations of Zn, which ranged from 3.24±0.59 to 4.35±0.59 mg/kg, were the highest in the samples. Cr and Cd were measured below the detection limit of the analytical instrument, while the Pb level was higher than the Codex Alimentarius Commission value of 0.02 mg/kg, indicating unsafe for consumption. However, the HQ of Pb and other metals in milk and milk product samples was less than 1.0, thereby establishing no adverse health effects for Pb and other metals. The distribution pattern of metals in milk and milk product samples followed the decreasing order of Zn > Fe > Ni > Co > Cu > Mn > Pb > Cd/Cr. The CR levels of meals were also less than the permissible limit of 1.0 x 10-4, establishing no possible development of cancer. Keywords: adverse effects, cancer, metals, milk, milk product, the permissible limit.

Keywords: adverse effects, cancer, metals, milk, milk product, permissible limit

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Authors: Christian Skowronski, Andrew Shanholtzer, Brent Yelton, Muayad Almahariq, Daniel J. Krauss

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Prostate cancer has the third highest incidence rate and is the second leading cause of cancer death for men in the United States. Of the diagnostic tools available for intermediate-risk prostate cancer, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides superior soft tissue delineation serving as a valuable tool for both diagnosis and treatment planning. Currently, there is minimal data regarding the practical utility of MRI for evaluation of intermediate-risk prostate cancer. As such, the National Comprehensive Cancer Network’s guidelines indicate MRI as optional in intermediate-risk prostate cancer evaluation. This project aims to elucidate whether MRI affects radiation treatment decisions for intermediate-risk prostate cancer. This was a retrospective study evaluating 210 patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer, treated with definitive radiotherapy at our institution between 2019-2020. NCCN risk stratification criteria were used to define intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Patients were divided into two groups: those with pretreatment prostate MRI, and those without pretreatment prostate MRI. We compared the use of external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy alone, brachytherapy boost, and androgen depravation therapy between the two groups. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to match the two groups for age, comorbidity index, American Urologic Association symptoms index, pretreatment PSA, grade group, and percent core involvement on prostate biopsy. Wilcoxon Rank Sum and Chi-squared tests were used to compare continuous and categorical variables. Of the patients who met the study’s eligibility criteria, 133 had a prostate MRI and 77 did not. Following propensity matching, there were no differences between baseline characteristics between the two groups. There were no statistically significant differences in treatments pursued between the two groups: 42% vs 47% were treated with brachytherapy alone, 40% vs 42% were treated with external beam radiotherapy alone, 18% vs 12% were treated with external beam radiotherapy with a brachytherapy boost, and 24% vs 17% received androgen deprivation therapy in the non-MRI and MRI groups, respectively. This analysis suggests that pretreatment MRI does not significantly impact radiation therapy or androgen deprivation therapy decisions in patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Obtaining a pretreatment prostate MRI should be used judiciously and pursued only to answer a specific question, for which the answer is likely to impact treatment decision. Further follow up is needed to correlate MRI findings with their impacts on specific oncologic outcomes.

Keywords: magnetic resonance imaging, prostate cancer, definitive radiotherapy, gleason score 7

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Authors: Ratri A. Benedictus, Felicia M. Yolanda

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Public transport is a crucial issue for capital city in developing country, such as Jakarta. Inadequate number and low quality of public transport services resulting personal vehicles as the main option. As a result, traffic jams are getting worse in Jakarta. The low quality of public transport, particularly buses, compounded by the risk behavior of the driver. Traffic accidents involving public bus in Jakarta were often the case, even result in fatality. The purpose of this study is to get a description of risk behavior among the public bus drivers in Jakarta. 132 bus drivers become respondent of this study. Risky Driving Behavior scale of Dorn were used. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. 51.5% of respondents felt often showing risky behavior while on driving. The highest type of risky driving behavior is still using the unsafe bus (62%). Followed by trespass the bus line (30%), over speed (21%), violate the road signs (15%) and driving with unhealthy physical condition (4%). Results of this study suggested that high understanding of the bus drivers on their risk behaviors have not lead to the emergence of safe driving behavior. Therefore, together with technical engineering and instrumentation work intervention over this issue, psychological aspects also need to be considered, such as: risk perception, safety attitude,safety culture, locus of control and Fatalism.

Keywords: bus driver, psychological factors, public transportation, risky driving behavior

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Authors: Osayomwanbor E. Oghama, John O. Olomukoro

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The school environment, apart from home, is probably the most important indoor environment for children. Children spend as much as 80-90% of their indoor time either at school or at home; an average of 35 - 40 hours per week in schools, hence are at the risk of indoor air pollutants such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Concentrations of VOCs vary widely but are generally higher indoors than outdoors. This research was, therefore, carried out to evaluate the levels of VOCs in secondary school classrooms in Benin City, Edo State. Samples were obtained from a total of 18 classrooms in 6 secondary schools. Samples were collected 3 times from each school and from 3 different classrooms in each school using Draeger ORSA 5 tubes. Samplers were left to stay for a school-week (5 days). The VOCs detected and analyzed were benzene, ethlybenzene, isopropylbenzene, naphthalene, n-butylbenzene, n-propylbenzene, toluene, m-xylene, p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, chlorobenzene, chloroform, 1,2-dichloropropane, 2,2-dichloropropane, tetrachloroethane, tetrahydrofuran, isopropyl acetate, α-pinene, and camphene. The results showed that chloroform, o-xylene, and styrene were the most abundant while α-pinene and camphene were the least abundant. The health risk assessment was done in terms of carcinogenic (CRI) and non-carcinogenic risks (THR). The CRI values of the schools ranged from 1.03 × 10-5 to 1.36 × 10-5 μg/m³ (a mean of 1.16 × 10-5 μg/m³) with School 6 and School 3 having the highest and lowest values respectively. The THR values of the study schools ranged from 0.071-0.086 μg/m³ (a mean of 0.078 μg/m³) with School 3 and School 2 having the highest and lowest values respectively. The results show that all the schools pose a potential carcinogenic risks having CRI values greater than the recommended limit of 1 × 10-6 µg/m³ and no non-carcinogenic risk having THR values less than the USEPA hazard quotient of 1 µg/m³. It is recommended that school authorities should ensure adequate ventilation in their schools, supplementing natural ventilation with mechanical sources, where necessary. In addition, indoor air quality should be taken into consideration in the design and construction of classrooms.

Keywords: carcinogenic risk indicator, health risk, indoor air, non-carcinogenic risk indicator, secondary schools, volatile organic compounds

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Authors: Vivek Anand, Rainer Naegele

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Industry 4.0 envisages 'smart' manufacturing and services, taking the automation of the 3rd Industrial Revolution to the autonomy of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Powered by innovations in technology and business models, this disruptive transformation is revitalising industry by integrating silos across and beyond value chains. Motivated by the challenges faced by SMEs and Startups in understanding and adopting Industry 4.0, this paper aims to analyse the concept of Growth Poles and evaluate the possibility of its application to Innovation Clusters that strive to propel Industry 4.0 adoption and capacity building. The proposed paper applies qualitative research methodologies including focus groups and survey questionnaires to identify the various factors that affect formation and development of Innovation Clusters. Employing content analysis, the interaction between SMEs and other ecosystem players in such clusters is studied. A strong collaborative culture is a key driver of digital transformation and technology adoption across sectors, value chains and supply chains; and will position these cluster-based growth poles at the forefront of industrial renaissance. Motivated by this argument, and based on the results of the qualitative research, a roadmap will be proposed to position Innovation Clusters as Growth Poles and effective ecosystems to support Industry 4.0 adoption in a region in the medium to long term. This paper will contribute to the current understanding of the role of Innovation Clusters in capacity building. Relevant management and policy implications stem from the analysis. Furthermore, the findings will be helpful for academicians and policymakers alike, who can leverage an ‘innovation cluster policy’ to enable Industry 4.0 Growth Poles in their regions.

Keywords: digital transformation, fourth industrial revolution, growth poles, industry 4.0, innovation clusters, innovation policy, SMEs and startups

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Authors: Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshenas, Fatemeh Rezaei

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Surgical procedures aim at preserving human life and improving quality of their life. However, there are many potential risk sources that can cause serious harm to patients. For centuries, managers believed that technical competence of a surgeon is the only key to a successful surgery. But over the past decade, risks are considered in terms of process-based safety procedures, teamwork and inter departmental communication. Aims: This study aims to determine how the process- biased surgical risk management should be done in terms of project management tool named ABS (Activity Breakdown Structure). Settings and Design: This study was conducted in two stages. First, literature review and meeting with professors was done to determine principles and framework of surgical risk management. Next, responsible teams for surgical patient journey were involved in following meeting to develop the process- biased surgical risk management. Methods and Material: This study is a qualitative research in which focus groups with the inductive approach is used. Sampling was performed to achieve representativeness through intensity sampling biased on experience and seniority. Analysis Method used: context analysis of interviews and consensus themes extracted from FDG meetings discussion was the analysis tool. Results: we developed the patient journey process in 5 main phases, 24 activities and 108 tasks. Then, responsible teams, transposition and allocated places for performing determined. Some activities and tasks themes were repeated in each phases like patient identification and records review because of their importance. Conclusions: Risk management of surgical departments is significant as this facility is the hospital’s largest cost and revenue center. Good communication between surgical team and other clinical teams outside surgery department through process- biased perspective could improve safety of patient under this procedure.

Keywords: risk management, activity breakdown structure (ABS), surgical department, medical sciences

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Authors: Ezgi Nevruz, Kasirga Yildirak, Ashis SenGupta

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Comparing or ranking risks is the main motivating factor behind the human trait of making choices. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a preference theory approach that evaluates perception and bias in decision making under risk and uncertainty. We aim to investigate the aggregate claims of different risk classes in terms of their comparability and amenability to ordering when the impact of risk perception is considered. For this aim, we prioritize the aggregate claims taken as actuarial risks by using various stochastic ordering relations. In order to prioritize actuarial risks, we use stochastic relations such as stochastic dominance and stop-loss dominance that are proposed in the frame of partial order theory. We take into account the dependency of the individual claims exposed to similar environmental risks. At first, we modify the zero-utility premium principle in order to obtain a solution for the stop-loss premium under CPT. Then, we propose a stochastic stop-loss dominance of the aggregate claims and find a relation between the stop-loss dominance and the first-order stochastic dominance under the dependence assumption by using properties of the familiar as well as some emerging multivariate claim distributions.

Keywords: cumulative prospect theory, partial order theory, risk perception, stochastic dominance, stop-loss dominance

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Authors: Sarah Müller-Sägebrecht

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Today’s volatile environment challenges executives to make the right strategic decisions to gain sustainable success. Entrepreneurship scholars postulate mainly positive effects of environmental changes on entrepreneurship behavior, such as developing new business opportunities, promoting ingenuity, and the satisfaction of resource voids. A strategic solution approach to overcome threatening environmental changes and catch new business opportunities is business model innovation (BMI). Although this research stream has gained further importance in the last decade, BMI research is still insufficient. Especially BMI barriers, such as inefficient strategic decision-making processes, need to be identified. Strategic decisions strongly impact organizational future and are, therefore, usually made in groups. Although groups draw on a more extensive information base than single individuals, group-interaction effects can influence the decision-making process - in a favorable but also unfavorable way. Decisions are characterized by uncertainty and risk, whereby their intensity is perceived individually differently. The individual risk-willingness influences which option humans choose. The special nature of strategic decisions, such as in BMI processes, is that these decisions are not made individually but in groups due to their high organizational scope. These groups consist of different personalities whose individual risk-willingness can vary considerably. It is known from group decision theory that these individuals influence each other, observable in different group-interaction effects. The following research questions arise: i) How does group interaction shape BMI decision-making from managers’ perspective? ii) What are the potential interrelations among managers’ risk-willingness, group biases, and BMI decision-making? After conducting 26 in-depth interviews with executives from the manufacturing industry, applied Gioia methodology reveals the following results: i) Risk-averse decision-makers have an increased need to be guided by facts. The more information available to them, the lower they perceive uncertainty and the more willing they are to pursue a specific decision option. However, the results also show that social interaction does not change the individual risk-willingness in the decision-making process. ii) Generally, it could be observed that during BMI decisions, group interaction is primarily beneficial to increase the group’s information base for making good decisions, less than for social interaction. Further, decision-makers mainly focus on information available to all decision-makers in the team but less on personal knowledge. This work contributes to strategic decision-making literature twofold. First, it gives insights into how group-interaction effects influence an organization’s strategic BMI decision-making. Second, it enriches risk-management research by highlighting how individual risk-willingness impacts organizational strategic decision-making. To date, it was known in BMI research that risk aversion would be an internal BMI barrier. However, with this study, it becomes clear that it is not risk aversion that inhibits BMI. Instead, the lack of information prevents risk-averse decision-makers from choosing a riskier option. Simultaneously, results show that risk-averse decision-makers are not easily carried away by the higher risk-willingness of their team members. Instead, they use social interaction to gather missing information. Therefore, executives need to provide sufficient information to all decision-makers to catch promising business opportunities.

Keywords: business model innovation, cognitive biases, group-interaction effects, strategic decision-making, risk-willingness

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Authors: Siqi Qiu, Yijian Zheng, Xin Guo Ming

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In many reliability and risk analysis, failures of components are supposed to be independent. However, in reality, the ignorance of failure dependencies among components may render the results of reliability and risk analysis incorrect. There are two principal ways to incorporate failure dependencies in system reliability and risk analysis: implicit and explicit methods. In the implicit method, failure dependencies can be modeled by joint probabilities, correlation values or conditional probabilities. In the explicit method, certain types of dependencies can be modeled in a fault tree as mutually independent basic events for specific component failures. In this paper, explicit and implicit methods based on BDD will be proposed to evaluate the reliability of systems considering failure dependencies. The obtained results prove the equivalence of the proposed implicit and explicit methods. It is found that the consideration of failure dependencies decreases the reliability of systems. This observation is intuitive, because more components fail due to failure dependencies. The consideration of failure dependencies helps designers to reduce the dependencies between components during the design phase to make the system more reliable.

Keywords: reliability assessment, risk assessment, failure dependencies, binary decision diagram

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Authors: Samuel Carpintero

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Public-private partnerships (PPP) arrangements have emerged all around the world as a response to infrastructure deficits and the need to refurbish existing infrastructure. The motivations of governments for embarking on PPPs for the delivery of public infrastructure are manifold, and include on-time and on-budget delivery as well as access to private project management expertise. The PPP formula has been used by some State governments in United States and Canada, where the participation of private companies in financing and managing infrastructure projects has increased significantly in the last decade, particularly in the transport sector. On the one hand, this paper examines the various ways used in these two countries in the implementation of PPP arrangements, with a particular focus on risk transfer. The examination of risk transfer in this paper is carried out with reference to the following key PPP risk categories: construction risk, revenue risk, operating risk and availability risk. The main difference between both countries is that in Canada the demand risk remains usually within the public sector whereas in the United States this risk is usually transferred to the private concessionaire. The aim is to explore which lessons can be learnt from both models than might be useful for other countries. On the other hand, the paper also analyzes why the Spanish companies have been so successful in winning PPP contracts in North America during the past decade. Contrary to the Latin American PPP market, the Spanish companies do not have any cultural advantage in the case of the United States and Canada. Arguably, some relevant reasons for the success of the Spanish groups are their extensive experience in PPP projects (that dates back to the late 1960s in some cases), their high technical level (that allows them to be aggressive in their bids), and their good position and track-record in the financial markets. The article’s empirical base consists of data provided by official sources of both countries as well as information collected through face-to-face interviews with public and private representatives of the stakeholders participating in some of the PPP schemes. Interviewees include private project managers of the concessionaires, representatives of banks involved as financiers in the projects, and experts in the PPP industry with close knowledge of the North American market. Unstructured in-depth interviews have been adopted as a means of investigation for this study because of its powers to achieve honest and robust responses and to ensure realism in the collection of an overall impression of stakeholders’ perspectives.

Keywords: PPP, concession, infrastructure, construction

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Authors: Takashi Mitsuishi

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Fuzzy logic has gained acceptance in the recent years in the fields of social sciences and humanities such as psychology and linguistics because it can manage the fuzziness of words and human subjectivity in a logical manner. However, the major field of application of the fuzzy logic is control engineering as it is a part of the set theory and mathematical logic. Mamdani method, which is the most popular technique for approximate reasoning in the field of fuzzy control, is one of the ways to numerically represent the control afforded by human language and sensitivity and has been applied in various practical control plants. Fuzzy logic has been gradually developing as an artificial intelligence in different applications such as neural networks, expert systems, and operations research. The objects of inference vary for different application fields. Some of these include time, angle, color, symptom and medical condition whose fuzzy membership function is a periodic function. In the defuzzification stage, the domain of the membership function should be unique to obtain uniqueness its defuzzified value. However, if the domain of the periodic membership function is determined as unique, an unintuitive defuzzified value may be obtained as the inference result using the center of gravity method. Therefore, the authors propose a method of circular-polar-coordinates transformation and defuzzification of the periodic membership functions in this study. The transformation to circular polar coordinates simplifies the domain of the periodic membership function. Defuzzified value in circular polar coordinates is an argument. Furthermore, it is required that the argument is calculated from a closed plane figure which is a periodic membership function on the circular polar coordinates. If the closed plane figure is continuous with the continuity of the membership function, a significant amount of computation is required. Therefore, to simplify the practice example and significantly reduce the computational complexity, we have discretized the continuous interval and the membership function in this study. In this study, the following three methods are proposed to decide the argument from the discrete polygon which the continuous plane figure is transformed into. The first method provides an argument of a straight line passing through the origin and through the coordinate of the arithmetic mean of each coordinate of the polygon (physical center of gravity). The second one provides an argument of a straight line passing through the origin and the coordinate of the geometric center of gravity of the polygon. The third one provides an argument of a straight line passing through the origin bisecting the perimeter of the polygon (or the closed continuous plane figure).

Keywords: defuzzification, fuzzy membership function, periodic function, polar coordinates transformation

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Abouzari, Shahrokh Sahraei

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Arrival of artificial intelligence or smart robots in the modern world put them in charge on pericise and at risk. So acting human activities with robots makes criminal or civil responsibilities for their acts or behavior. The practical usage of smart robots has entered them in to a unique situation when naturalization happens and smart robots are identifies as members of society. There would be some legal situation by adopting these new smart citizens. The first situation is about legal responsibility of robots. Recognizing the naturalization of robot involves some basic right , so humans have the rights of employment, property, housing, using energy and other human rights may be employed for robots. So how would be the practice of these rights in the society and if some problems happens with these rights, how would the civil responsibility and punishment? May we consider them as population and count on the social programs? The second episode is about the criminal responsibility of robots in important activity instead of human that is the aim of inventing robots with handling works in AI technology , but the problem arises when some accidents are happened by robots who are in charge of important activities like army, surgery, transporting, judgement and so on. Moreover, recognizing independent identification for robots in the legal world by register ID cards, naturalization and civilian rights makes and prepare the same rights and obligations of human. So, the civil responsibility is not avoidable and if the robot commit a crime it would have criminal responsibility and have to be punished. The basic component of criminal responsibility may changes in so situation. For example, if designation for criminal responsibility bounds to human by sane, maturity, voluntariness, it would be for robots by being intelligent, good programming, not being hacked and so on. So it is irrational to punish robots by prisoning , execution and other human punishments for body. We may determine to make digital punishments like changing or repairing programs, exchanging some parts of its body or wreck it down completely. Finally the responsibility of the smart robot creators, programmers, the boss in chief, the organization who employed robot, the government which permitted to use robot in important bases and activities , will be analyzing and investigating in their article.

Keywords: robot, artificial intelligence, personality, responsibility

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Authors: Walaa W. Diab

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The present paper offers a fundamental critique of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy after it surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. It emphasizes the importance of the fiscal policy after reviewing the revolution of almost all economic schools and bringing them in one summarized figure; the paper links the developmental role of the fiscal policy with the objectives and measures of the economic transformation. Thus, the importance of this study can be seen from several perspectives: First, it reviews the theoretical harvest of fiscal policy and provides a comparison between the main revolutionary Economic thoughts; the classical school, Keynesian school, and monetarist school. Then it turns to conclude the fiscal policy from the new consensus mainstream economic schools. Finally, the study presents grouped and classified empirical pieces of evidence as it divides those empirical studies into two groups; the first for developed economies and the second for developing ones. So the study is important also for the policymakers as well as scholars as it gives its recommendations upon the last analysis in the form of ‘policy implications’. The paper also presents a deeper look into the evaluation approaches of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy at the empirical level. Thus it is useful for both researchers and decision makers.

Keywords: economic transformation, fiscal policy, macroeconomic effects, public spending

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Authors: Davendra Singh Malik

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India is one of the mega-biodiversity countries in the world and contributing about 11.72% of global fish diversity. The Yamuna river is the longest tributary of Ganga river ecosystem, providing a natural habitat for existing fish diversity of Himalayan region of Indian subcontinent. The several hydropower dams and barrages have been constructed on different locations of major rivers in Garhwal region. These dams have caused a major ecological threat to change existing fresh water ecosystems altering water flows, interrupting ecological connectivity, fragmenting habitats and native riverine fish species. Mahseer fishes (Indian carp) of the genus Tor, are large cyprinids endemic to continental Asia popularly known as ‘Game or sport fishes’ have continued to be decimated by fragmented natural habitats due to damming the water flow in riverine system and categorized as threatened fishes of India. The fresh water fish diversity as 24 fish species were recorded from Yamuna river. The present fish catch data has revealed that mahseer fishes (Tor tor and Tor putitora) were contributed about 32.5 %, 25.6 % and 18.2 % in upper, middle and lower riverine stretches of Yaumna river. The length range of mahseer (360-450mm) recorded as dominant size of catch composition. The CPUE (catch per unit effort) of mahseer fishes also indicated about a sharp decline of fish biomass, changing growth pattern, sex ratio and maturity stages of fishes. Only 12.5 – 14.8 % mahseer female brooders have showed only maturity phases in breeding months. The fecundity of mature mahseer female fish brooders ranged from 2500-4500 no. of ova during breeding months. The present status of mahseer fishery has attributed to the over exploitative nature in Yamuna river. The mahseer population is shrinking continuously in down streams of Yamuna river due to cumulative effects of various ecological stress. Mahseer conservation programme have implemented as 'in situ fish conservation' for enhancement of viable population size of mahseer species and restore the genetic loss of mahseer fish germplasm in Yamuna river of Garhwal Himalayan region.

Keywords: conservation practice, population dynamics, tor fish species, Yamuna River

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Authors: Marju Ben Sayed, Shigeko Haruyama

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Among all kinds of natural disaster, the flood is a common feature in rapidly urbanizing Dhaka city. In this research, assessment of flood risk of Dhaka metropolitan area has been investigated by using an integrated approach of GIS, remote sensing and socio-economic data. The purpose of the study is to measure the flooding risk concerning with the flood protection embankment in big flooding events (1988, 1998 and 2004) and urbanization of Dhaka metropolitan zone. In this research, we considered the Dhaka city into two parts; East Dhaka (outside the flood protection embankment) and West Dhaka (inside the flood protection embankment). Using statistical data, we explored the socio-economic status of the study area population by comparing the density of population, land price and income level. We have drawn the cross section profile of the flood protection embankment into three different points for realizing the flooding risk in the study area, especially in the big flooding year (1988, 1998 and 2004). According to the physical condition of the study area, the land use/land cover map has been classified into five classes. Comparing with each land cover unit, historical weather station data and the socio-economic data, the flooding risk has been evaluated. Moreover, we compared between DEM data and each land cover units to find out the relationship with flood. It is expected that, this study could contribute to effective flood forecasting, relief and emergency management for a future flood event in Dhaka city.

Keywords: land use, land cover change, socio-economic, Dhaka city, GIS, flood

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Authors: Liyu Adhi Kasari Sulung

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Poverty has been a major problem in Indonesia. Islamic micro finance (IMF) named Baitul Maal Wat Tamwil (Bmt) plays a prominent role to eradicate this. Indonesia as the biggest muslim country has many successful applied products such as worldwide adopt group-based lending approach, flexible financing for farmers, and gold pawning. The Problems related to these models are operation risk management and internal control system (ICS). A proper ICS will help an organization in preventing the occurrence of bad financing through detecting error and irregularities in its operation. This study aims to seek a proper risk management scheme of credit system in Bmt and internal control system’s rank for every stage. Risk management variables are obtained at the first In-Depth Interview (IDI) and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with Shariah supervisory boards, boards of directors, and operational managers. Survey was conducted covering nationwide data; West Java, South Sulawesi, and West Nusa Tenggara. Moreover, Content analysis is employed to build the relationship among these variables. Research Findings shows that risk management Characteristics in Indonesia involves ex ante, credit process, and ex post strategies to deal with risk in credit system. Ex-ante control consists of Shariah compliance, survey, group leader reference, and islamic forming orientation. Then, credit process involves saving, collateral, joint liability, loan repayment, and credit installment controlling. Finally, ex-post control includes shariah evaluation, credit evaluation, grace period and low installment provisions. In addition, internal control order sort three stages by its priority; Credit process as first rank, then ex-post control as second, and ex ante control as the last rank.

Keywords: internal control system, islamic micro finance, poverty, risk management

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Authors: Marina Nosik, Irina Rymanova, Sergei Sevostyanihin, Natalya Sergeeva, Alexander Sobkin

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This paper presents results of the survey regarding the awareness about HIV/AIDS among HIV-infected individuals. A questionnaire covering various aspects of HIV-infection was conducted among 110 HIV-infected individuals who attended the G.A. Zaharyan Moscow Tuberculosis Clinic, Department for the treatment of TB patients with HIV. The questionnaire included questions about modes of HIV transmission and preventive measures against HIV/AIDS, as well as questions about age, gender, education, and employment status. The survey revealed that the respondents in the whole had a good knowledge regarding modes of HIV transmission and preventive measures against HIV/AIDS: about 83,6% male respondents and 85,7% female respondents gave accurate answers regarding the HIV-infection. However, the overwhelming majority of the study participants, that is, 88,5% men and 98% women, was quite ignorant about the risk of acquiring HIV through saliva and toothbrush of HIV-infected individual. Though that risk is rather insignificant, it is still biologically possible. And this gap in knowledge needs to be filled. As the study showed another point of concern was the fact, that despite the knowledge of HIV transmission risk through unprotected sex about 40% percent of HIV-positive men and 25% of HIV-positive women did not insist on using condoms with their sexual partners. These findings indicate that there are still some aspects about HIV-infection which needed to be clarified and explained through more detailed and specific educational programmes.

Keywords: AIDS, HIV transmission risks, HIV misconceptions, risk behavior

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Authors: Saeed Nazari, Masoom Nazari, Ali Hejazi, Siamak Sanoobari Ghazi Jahani, Mohammad Dehghani, Javad Vakili

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More than ever, digitization is an imperative for businesses to keep their competitive advantages, foster innovation and reduce paperwork. To design and successfully implement digital transformation initiatives within process safety management system, employees need to be equipped with the right tool, frameworks, and best practices. we developed a unique full stack application so-called SHEQTool which is entirely dynamic based on our extensive expertise, experience, and client feedback to help business processes particularly operations safety management. We use our best knowledge and scientific methodologies published by CCPS and OSHA Guidelines to streamline operations and integrated them into task management within Petrochemical Companies. We digitalize their main process safety management system elements and their sub elements such as hazard identification and risk management, training and communication, inspection and audit, critical changes management, contractor management, permit to work, pre-start-up safety review, incident reporting and investigation, emergency response plan, personal protective equipment, occupational health, and action management in a fully customizable manner with no programming needs for users. We review the feedback from main actors within petrochemical plant which highlights improving their business performance and productivity as well as keep tracking their functions’ key performance indicators (KPIs) because it; 1) saves time, resources, and costs of all paperwork on our businesses (by Digitalization); 2) reduces errors and improve performance within management system by covering most of daily software needs of the organization and reduce complexity and associated costs of numerous tools and their required training (One Tool Approach); 3) focuses on management systems and integrate functions and put them into traceable task management (RASCI and Flowcharting); 4) helps the entire enterprise be resilient to any change of your processes, technologies, assets with minimum costs (through Organizational Resilience); 5) reduces significantly incidents and errors via world class safety management programs and elements (by Simplification); 6) gives the companies a systematic, traceable, risk based, process based, and science based integrated management system (via proper Methodologies); 7) helps business processes complies with ISO 9001, ISO 14001, ISO 45001, ISO 31000, best practices as well as legal regulations by PDCA approach (Compliance).

Keywords: process, safety, digitalization, management, risk, incident, SHEQTool, OSHA, CCPS

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Authors: Sajjad Baghernezhad

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Meta-heuristic and hybrid algorithms have high adeer in modeling medical problems. In this study, a neural network was used to predict covid-19 among high-risk and low-risk patients. This study was conducted to collect the applied method and its target population consisting of 550 high-risk and low-risk patients from the Kerman University of medical sciences medical center to predict the coronavirus. In this study, the memetic algorithm, which is a combination of a genetic algorithm and a local search algorithm, has been used to update the weights of the neural network and develop the accuracy of the neural network. The initial study showed that the accuracy of the neural network was 88%. After updating the weights, the memetic algorithm increased by 93%. For the proposed model, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity value, value/accuracy to 97.4, 92.3, 95.8, 96.2, and 0.918, respectively; for the genetic algorithm model, 87.05, 9.20 7, 89.45, 97.30 and 0.967 and for logistic regression model were 87.40, 95.20, 93.79, 0.87 and 0.916. Based on the findings of this study, neural network models have a lower error rate in the diagnosis of patients based on individual variables and vital signs compared to the regression model. The findings of this study can help planners and health care providers in signing programs and early diagnosis of COVID-19 or Corona.

Keywords: COVID-19, decision support technique, neural network, genetic algorithm, memetic algorithm

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Authors: Pinar Ercan, Bulut Mert

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The baking industry is prone to occupational health challenges like other industries. Workers in bakeries face many hazards in their work environment; hazards have the potential for causing injury, illness or work accidents. Most of these hazards are preventable and arise from the neglect of occupational safety measures. Some bakeries in Izmır Turkey was evaluated according to occupational health and safety. First of all, the production process was evaluated. The survey was administered to a total of 50 employees. The survey consisted of two sections. The first one comprised only demographic questions and items related to job characteristics. The remaining section was assessing the satisfaction and confidence about occupational health and safety in terms of employees consist of a 10-item questionnaire by using HSE (2010) survey with some modifications. Also, hazards, risks and control measures in the bakeries were determined. Risk assessment has been done by the use of '5x5 Risk Assessment Table' for this purpose.

Keywords: bakeries, occupational health and safety, hazards, risks, risk assessment

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Authors: Luana Parisi, Sohrab Donyavi

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Cities have become the nodes of global networks, standing at the intersection points of the flows of capital, goods, workers, businesses and travellers, making them the spots where innovation, progress and economic development occur. The primary challenge for them is to create the most fertile ecosystems for triggering innovation activities. Design emerges as an essential feature in this process of laboratorisation of cities. This paper aims at exploring the spatial hubs of transformation within the knowledge economy, providing an overview of the current models of innovation spaces, before focusing on the innovation district of one of the cities that are riding the innovation wave, namely, Boston, USA. Useful lessons will be drawn from the case study of the innovation district in Boston, allowing to define precious tools for policymakers, in the form of a range of factors that define the broad strategy able to implement the model successfully. A mixed methodology is implemented, including information from observations, exploratory interviews to key stakeholders and on-desk data.

Keywords: Innovation District, innovation ecosystem, economic development, urban regeneration

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Authors: Omar Hamdy, Schichen Zhao, Hussein Abd El-Atty, Ayman Ragab, Muhammad Salem

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One of the most risky areas in Aswan is Abouelreesh, which is suffering from flood disasters, as heavy deluge inundates urban areas causing considerable damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, the main problem was the urban sprawl towards this risky area. This paper aims to identify the urban areas located in the risk areas prone to flash floods. Analyzing this phenomenon needs a lot of data to ensure satisfactory results; however, in this case the official data and field data were limited, and therefore, free sources of satellite data were used. This paper used ArcGIS tools to obtain the storm water drains network by analyzing DEM files. Additionally, historical imagery in Google Earth was studied to determine the age of each building. The last step was to overlay the urban area layer and the storm water drains layer to identify the vulnerable areas. The results of this study would be helpful to urban planners and government officials to make the disasters risk estimation and develop primary plans to recover the risky area, especially urban areas located in torrents.

Keywords: risk area, DEM, storm water drains, GIS

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