Search results for: dead inventory

Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Mohsen Abdelrazek Khorshid Ali Selim

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Disadvantages and errors of current concrete reinforcement methodsL: Current concrete reinforcement methods are adopted in most parts of the world in their various doctrines and names. They adopt the so-called concrete slab system, where these slabs are semi-independent and isolated from each other and from the surrounding environment of concrete columns or beams, so that the reinforcing steel does not cross from one slab to another or from one slab to adjacent columns. It or the beams surrounding it and vice versa are only a few centimeters and no more. The same applies exactly to the concrete columns that support the building, where the reinforcing steel does not extend from the slabs or beams to the inside of the columns or vice versa except for a few centimeters and no more, just as the reinforcing steel does not extend from inside the column at the top. The ceiling is only a few centimetres, and the same thing is literally repeated in the concrete beams that connect the columns and separate the slabs, where the reinforcing steel does not cross from one beam to another or from one beam to the slabs or columns adjacent to it and vice versa, except for a few centimeters, which makes the basic building elements of columns, slabs and beams They all work in isolation from each other and from the environment surrounding them from all sides. This traditional method of reinforcement may be valid and lasting in geographical areas that are not exposed to earthquakes and earthquakes, where all the loads and tensile forces in the building are constantly directed vertically downward due to gravity and are borne directly by the vertical reinforcement of the building. However, in the case of earthquakes and earthquakes, the loads and tensile forces in the building shift from the vertical direction to the horizontal direction at an angle of inclination that depends on the strength of the earthquake, and most of them are borne by the horizontal reinforcement extending between the basic elements of the building, such as columns, slabs and beams, and since the crossing of the reinforcement between each of the columns, slabs and beams between them And each other, and vice versa, does not exceed several centimeters. In any case, the tensile strength, cohesion and bonding between the various parts of the building are very weak, which causes the buildings to disintegrate and collapse in the horrific manner that we saw in the earthquake in Turkey and Syria in February 2023, which caused the collapse of tens of thousands of buildings in A few seconds later, it left more than 50,000 dead, hundreds of thousands injured, and millions displaced. Description of the new earthquake-resistant model: The idea of the new model in the reinforcement of concrete buildings and constructions is based on the theory that we have formulated as follows: [The tensile strength, cohesion and bonding between the basic parts of the concrete building (columns, beams and slabs) increases as the lengths of the reinforcing steel bars increase and they extend and branch and the different parts of the building share them with each other.] . In other words, the strength, solidity, and cohesion of concrete buildings increase and they become resistant to earthquakes as the lengths of the reinforcing steel bars increase, extend, branch, and share with the various parts of the building, such as columns, beams, and slabs. That is, the reinforcing skewers of the columns must extend in their lengths without cutting to cross from one floor to another until their end. Likewise, the reinforcing skewers of the beams must extend in their lengths without cutting to cross from one beam to another. The ends of these skewers must rest at the bottom of the columns adjacent to the beams. The same thing applies to the reinforcing skewers of the slabs where they must These skewers should be extended in their lengths without cutting to cross from one tile to another, and the ends of these skewers should rest either under the adjacent columns or inside the beams adjacent to the slabs as follows: First, reinforce the columns: The columns have the lion's share of the reinforcing steel in this model in terms of type and quantity, as the columns contain two types of reinforcing bars. The first type is large-diameter bars that emerge from the base of the building, which are the nerves of the column. These bars must extend over their normal length of 12 meters or more and extend to a height of three floors, if desired. In raising other floors, bars with the same diameter and the same length are added to the top after the second floor. The second type is bars with a smaller diameter, and they are the same ones that are used to reinforce beams and slabs, so that the bars that reinforce the beams and slabs facing each column are bent down inside this column and along the entire length of the column. This requires an order. Most engineers do not prefer it, which is to pour the entire columns and pour the roof at once, but we prefer this method because it enables us to extend the reinforcing bars of both the beams and slabs to the bottom of the columns so that the entire building becomes one concrete block that is cohesive and resistant to earthquakes. Secondly, arming the cameras: The beams' reinforcing skewers must also extend to a full length of 12 meters or more without cutting. The ends of the skewers are bent and dropped inside the column at the beginning of the beam to its bottom. Then the skewers are extended inside the beam so that their other end falls under the facing column at the end of the beam. The skewers may cross over the head of a column. Another passes through another adjacent beam and rests at the bottom of a third column, according to the lengths of each of the skewers and beams. Third, reinforcement of slabs: The slab reinforcing skewers must also extend their entire length, 12 meters or more, without cutting, distinguishing between two cases. The first case is the skewers opposite the columns, and their ends are dropped inside one of the columns. Then the skewers cross inside the adjacent slab and their other end falls below the opposite column. The skewers may cross over The head of the adjacent column passes through another adjacent slab and rests at the bottom of a third column, according to the dimensions of the slabs and the lengths of the skewers. The second case is the skewers opposite the beams, and their ends must be bent in the form of a square or rectangle according to the dimensions of the beam’s width and height, and this square or rectangle is dropped inside the beam at the beginning of the slab, and it serves as The skewers are for the beams, then the skewers are extended along the length of the slab, and at the end of the slab, the skewers are bent down to the bottom of the adjacent beam in the shape of the letter U, after which the skewers are extended inside the adjacent slab, and this is repeated in the same way inside the other adjacent beams until the end of the skewer, then it is bent downward in the form of a square or rectangle inside the beam, as happened. In its beginning.

Keywords: earthquake resistant buildings, earthquake resistant concrete constructions, new technology for reinforcement of concrete buildings, new technology in concrete reinforcement

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Mary Hanhoun, Jilla Bamarni, Anne-Sophie Bougard

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INSPIR’ECO is a 18-month research and innovation project that aims to specify and develop a tool to offer new services for industrials and territorial planners/managers based on Industrial Ecology Principles. This project is carried out on the territory of Salaise Sablons and the services are designed to be deployed on other territories. Salaise-Sablons area is located in the limit of 5 departments on a major European economic axis multimodal traffic (river, rail and road). The perimeter of 330 ha includes 90 hectares occupied by 20 companies, with a total of 900 jobs, and represents a significant potential basin of development. The project involves five multi-disciplinary partners (Syndicat Mixte INSPIRA, ENGIE, IDEEL, IDEAs Laboratory and TREDI). INSPIR’ECO project is based on the principles that local stakeholders need services to pool, share their activities/equipment/purchases/materials. These services aims to : 1. initiate and promote exchanges between existing companies and 2. identify synergies between pre-existing industries and future companies that could be implemented in INSPIRA. These eco-industrial synergies can be related to: the recovery / exchange of industrial flows (industrial wastewater, waste, by-products, etc.); the pooling of business services (collective waste management, stormwater collection and reuse, transport, etc.); the sharing of equipments (boiler, steam production, wastewater treatment unit, etc.) or resources (splitting jobs cost, etc.); and the creation of new activities (interface activities necessary for by-product recovery, development of products or services from a newly identified resource, etc.). These services are based on IT tool used by the interested local stakeholders that intends to allow local stakeholders to take decisions. Thus, this IT tool: - include an economic and environmental assessment of each implantation or pooling/sharing scenarios for existing or further industries; - is meant for industrial and territorial manager/planners - is designed to be used for each new industrial project. - The specification of the IT tool is made through an agile process all along INSPIR’ECO project fed with: - Users expectations thanks to workshop sessions where mock-up interfaces are displayed; - Data availability based on local and industrial data inventory. These input allow to specify the tool not only with technical and methodological constraints (notably the ones from economic and environmental assessments) but also with data availability and users expectations. A feedback on innovative resource management initiatives in port areas has been realized in the beginning of the project to feed the designing services step.

Keywords: development opportunities, INSPIR’ECO, INSPIRA, industrial ecology, planification, synergy identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: S. Ebadzadsahraei, H. Kazemian

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The main objective of this research was to measure particulate matter (PM₂.₅) and Volatile Organic Compound (VOCs) as two classes of air pollutants, at Prince George (PG) neighborhood in warm and cold seasons. To fulfill this objective, analytical protocols were developed for accurate sampling and measurement of the targeted air pollutants. PM₂.₅ samples were analyzed for their chemical composition (i.e., toxic trace elements) in order to assess their potential source of emission. The City of Prince George, widely known as the capital of northern British Columbia (BC), Canada, has been dealing with air pollution challenges for a long time. The city has several local industries including pulp mills, a refinery, and a couple of asphalt plants that are the primary contributors of industrial VOCs. In this research project, which is the first study of this kind in this region it measures physical and chemical properties of particulate air pollutants (PM₂.₅) at the city neighborhood. Furthermore, this study quantifies the percentage of VOCs at the city air samples. One of the outcomes of this project is updated data about PM₂.₅ and VOCs inventory in the selected neighborhoods. For examining PM₂.₅ chemical composition, an elemental analysis methodology was developed to measure major trace elements including but not limited to mercury and lead. The toxicity of inhaled particulates depends on both their physical and chemical properties; thus, an understanding of aerosol properties is essential for the evaluation of such hazards, and the treatment of such respiratory and other related diseases. Mixed cellulose ester (MCE) filters were selected for this research as a suitable filter for PM₂.₅ air sampling. Chemical analyses were conducted using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) for elemental analysis. VOCs measurement of the air samples was performed using a Gas Chromatography-Flame Ionization Detector (GC-FID) and Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) allowing for quantitative measurement of VOC molecules in sub-ppb levels. In this study, sorbent tube (Anasorb CSC, Coconut Charcoal), 6 x 70-mm size, 2 sections, 50/100 mg sorbent, 20/40 mesh was used for VOCs air sampling followed by using solvent extraction and solid-phase micro extraction (SPME) techniques to prepare samples for measuring by a GC-MS/FID instrument. Air sampling for both PM₂.₅ and VOC were conducted in summer and winter seasons for comparison. Average concentrations of PM₂.₅ are very different between wildfire and daily samples. At wildfire time average of concentration is 83.0 μg/m³ and daily samples are 23.7 μg/m³. Also, higher concentrations of iron, nickel and manganese found at all samples and mercury element is found in some samples. It is able to stay too high doses negative effects.

Keywords: air pollutants, chemical analysis, particulate matter (PM₂.₅), volatile organic compound, VOCs

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Pardis Moslemzadeh Tehrani

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Due to the emergence of blockchain technology and the benefits of cryptocurrencies, intelligent or smart contracts are gaining traction. Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming our lives, and it is being embraced by a wide range of sectors. Smart contracts, which are at the heart of blockchains, incorporate AI characteristics. Such contracts are referred to as "smart" contracts because of the underlying technology that allows contracting parties to agree on terms expressed in computer code that defines machine-readable instructions for computers to follow under specific situations. The transmission happens automatically if the conditions are met. Initially utilised for financial transactions, blockchain applications have since expanded to include the financial, insurance, and medical sectors, as well as supply networks. Raw material acquisition by suppliers, design, and fabrication by manufacturers, delivery of final products to consumers, and even post-sales logistics assistance are all part of supply chains. Many issues are linked with managing supply chains from the planning and coordination stages, which can be implemented in a smart contract in a blockchain due to their complexity. Manufacturing delays and limited third-party amounts of product components have raised concerns about the integrity and accountability of supply chains for food and pharmaceutical items. Other concerns include regulatory compliance in multiple jurisdictions and transportation circumstances (for instance, many products must be kept in temperature-controlled environments to ensure their effectiveness). Products are handled by several providers before reaching customers in modern economic systems. Information is sent between suppliers, shippers, distributors, and retailers at every stage of the production and distribution process. Information travels more effectively when individuals are eliminated from the equation. The usage of blockchain technology could be a viable solution to these coordination issues. In blockchains, smart contracts allow for the rapid transmission of production data, logistical data, inventory levels, and sales data. This research investigates the legal and technical advantages and disadvantages of AI-blockchain technology in the supply chain business. It aims to uncover the applicable legal problems and barriers to the use of AI-blockchain technology to supply chains, particularly in the food industry. It also discusses the essential legal and technological issues and impediments to supply chain implementation for stakeholders, as well as methods for overcoming them before releasing the technology to clients. Because there has been little research done on this topic, it is difficult for industrial stakeholders to grasp how blockchain technology could be used in their respective operations. As a result, the focus of this research will be on building advanced and complex contractual terms in supply chain smart contracts on blockchains to cover all unforeseen supply chain challenges.

Keywords: blockchain, supply chain, IoT, smart contract

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Alfonsina Buoniconto

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The aim of this study is to investigate the degree of cross-linguistic and intra-linguistic variation in the encoding of motion events (MEs) in English and Italian, these being typologically different languages both showing signs of disobedience to their respective types. As a matter of fact, the traditional typological classification of MEs encoding distributes languages into two macro-types, based on the preferred locus for the expression of Path, the main ME component (other components being Figure, Ground and Manner) characterized by conceptual and structural prominence. According to this model, Satellite-framed (SF) languages typically express Path information in verb-dependent items called satellites (e.g. preverbs and verb particles) with main verbs encoding Manner of motion; whereas Verb-framed languages (VF) tend to include Path information within the verbal locus, leaving Manner to adjuncts. Although this dichotomy is valid altogether, languages do not always behave according to their typical classification patterns. English, for example, is usually ascribed to the SF type due to the rich inventory of postverbal particles and phrasal verbs used to express spatial relations (i.e. the cat climbed down the tree); nevertheless, it is not uncommon to find constructions such as the fog descended slowly, which is typical of the VF type. Conversely, Italian is usually described as being VF (cf. Paolo uscì di corsa ‘Paolo went out running’), yet SF constructions like corse via in lacrime ‘She ran away in tears’ are also frequent. This paper will try to demonstrate that such a typological overlapping is due to the fact that the semantic units making up MEs are distributed within several loci of the sentence –not only verbs and satellites– thus determining a number of different constructions stemming from convergent factors. Indeed, the linguistic expression of motion events depends not only on the typological nature of languages in a traditional sense, but also on a series morphological, lexical, and syntactic resources, as well as on inferential, discursive, usage-related, and cultural factors that make semantic information more or less accessible, frequent, and easy to process. Hence, rather than describe English and Italian in dichotomic terms, this study focuses on the investigation of cross-linguistic and intra-linguistic variation in the use of all the strategies made available by each linguistic system to express motion. Evidence for these assumptions is provided by parallel corpora analysis. The sample texts are taken from two contemporary Italian novels and their respective English translations. The 400 motion occurrences selected (200 in English and 200 in Italian) were scanned according to the MODEG (an acronym for Motion Decoding Grid) methodology, which grants data comparability through the indexation and retrieval of combined morphosyntactic and semantic information at different levels of detail.

Keywords: construction typology, motion event encoding, parallel corpora, satellite-framed vs. verb-framed type

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Sophie-Bo Heinkel, Andrea Rechenburg, Thomas Kistemann

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The current status of wellbeing and life satisfaction of subsistence farmers in a wetland in Uganda and the contributing role of place attachment has been assessed. The aim of this study is to shed light on environmental factors supporting wellbeing in a wetland setting. Furthermore, it has been assessed, how the emotional bonding to the wetland as ‘place’ influences the peoples’ wellbeing and life satisfaction. The results shed light on the human-environment-relationship. A survey was carried out in three communities in urban and rural areas in a wetland basin in Uganda. A sample (n=235) provided information about the attachment to the wetland, the participants’ relation to the place of their residence and their emotional wellbeing. The Wellbeing Index (WHO-5) was assessed as well as the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10) and Rosenberg’s Self-Esteem scale (RSE). Furthermore, the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS) was applied as well as the Place Attachment Inventory (PAI), which consists of the two intertwined dimensions of place identity and place dependence. Beside this, binary indicators as ‘feeling save’ and ‘feeling comfortable’ and ‘enjoying to live at the place of residence’ have been assessed. A bivariate correlation analysis revealed a high interconnectivity between all metric scales. Especially, the subscale ‘place identity’ showed significances with all other scales. A cluster analysis revealed three groups, which differed in the perception of place-related indicators and their attachment to the wetland as well as the status of wellbeing. First, a cluster whose majority is dissatisfied with their lives, but mainly had a good status of emotional well-being. This group does not feel attached to the wetland and lives in a town. Comparably less persons of this group feel safe and comfortable at their place of residence. In the second cluster, persons feel highly attached to the wetland and identify with it. This group was characterized by the high number of persons preferring their current place of residence and do not consider moving. All persons feel well and satisfied with their lives. The third group of persons is mainly living in rural areas and feels highly attached to the wetland. They are satisfied with their lives, but only a small minority is in a good emotional state of wellbeing. The emotional attachment to a place influences life satisfaction and, indirectly, the emotional wellbeing. In the present study it could be shown that subsistence farmers are attached to the wetland, as it is the source of their livelihood. While those living in areas with a good infrastructure are less dependent on the wetland and, therefore, less attached to. This feeling also was mirrored in the perception of a place as being safe and comfortable. The identification with a place is crucial for the feeling of being at “home”. Subsistence farmers feel attached to the ecosystem, but they also might be exposed to environmental and social stressors influencing their short-term emotional wellbeing. The provision of place identity is an ecosystem service provided by wetlands, which supports the status of wellbeing in human beings.

Keywords: mental health, positive environments, quality of life, wellbeing

Procedia PDF Downloads 410

Authors: Ana Julia Acevedo Urquiaga, Jose A. Acevedo Suarez, Ana Julia Urquiaga Rodriguez, Neyfe Sablon Cossio

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Despite the progress made in logistics and supply chains fields, it is unavoidable the development of business models that use efficiently information to facilitate the integrated logistics flows management between partners. Collaborative management is an important tool for materializing the cooperation between companies, as a way to achieve the supply chain efficiency and effectiveness. The first face of this research was a comprehensive analysis of the collaborative planning on the Cuban companies. It is evident that they have difficulties in supply chains planning where production, supplies and replenishment planning are independent tasks, as well as logistics and distribution operations. Large inventories generate serious financial and organizational problems for entities, demanding increasing levels of working capital that cannot be financed. Problems were found in the efficient application of Information and Communication Technology on business management. The general objective of this work is to develop a methodology that allows the deployment of a planning and control system in a coordinated way on the medicine’s logistics system in Cuba. To achieve these objectives, several mechanisms of supply chain coordination, mathematical programming models, and other management techniques were analyzed to meet the requirements of collaborative logistics management in Cuba. One of the findings is the practical and theoretical inadequacies of the studied models to solve the current situation of the Cuban logistics systems management. To contribute to the tactical-operative management of logistics, the Collaborative Logistics Flow Management Model (CLFMM) is proposed as a tool for the balance of cycles, capacities, and inventories, always to meet the final customers’ demands in correspondence with the service level expected by these. The CLFMM has as center the supply chain planning and control system as a unique information system, which acts on the processes network. The development of the model is based on the empirical methods of analysis-synthesis and the study cases. Other finding is the demonstration of the use of a single information system to support the supply chain logistics management, allows determining the deadlines and quantities required in each process. This ensures that medications are always available to patients and there are no faults that put the population's health at risk. The simulation of planning and control with the CLFMM in medicines such as dipyrone and chlordiazepoxide, during 5 months of 2017, permitted to take measures to adjust the logistic flow, eliminate delayed processes and avoid shortages of the medicines studied. As a result, the logistics cycle efficiency can be increased to 91%, the inventory rotation would increase, and this results in a release of financial resources.

Keywords: collaborative management, medicine logistic system, supply chain planning, tactical-operative planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Sunjay

Abstract:

Plate tectonics is of very great significance as it represents the spatial relationships of volcanic rock suites at plate margins, the distribution in space and time of the conditions of different metamorphic facies, the scheme of deformation in mountain belts, or orogens, and the association of different types of economic deposit. Orogenic belts are characterized by extensive thrust faulting, movements along large strike-slip fault zones, and extensional deformation that occur deep within continental interiors. Within oceanic areas there also are regions of crustal extension and accretion in the backarc basins that are located on the landward sides of many destructive plate margins.Collisional orogens develop where a continent or island arc collides with a continental margin as a result of subduction. collisional and noncollisional orogens can be explained by differences in the strength and rheology of the continental lithosphere and by processes that influence these properties during orogenesis.Seismic Imaging Difficulties-In triangle zones, several factors reduce the effectiveness of seismic methods. The topography in the central part of the triangle zone is usually rugged and is associated with near-surface velocity inversions which degrade the quality of the seismic image. These characteristics lead to low signal-to-noise ratio, inadequate penetration of energy through overburden, poor geophone coupling with the surface and wave scattering. Depth Seismic Imaging Techniques-Seismic processing relates to the process of altering the seismic data to suppress noise, enhancing the desired signal (higher signal-to-noise ratio) and migrating seismic events to their appropriate location in space and depth. Processing steps generally include analysis of velocities, static corrections, moveout corrections, stacking and migration. Exploration seismology Bow-tie effect -Shadow Zones-areas with no reflections (dead areas). These are called shadow zones and are common in the vicinity of faults and other discontinuous areas in the subsurface. Shadow zones result when energy from a reflector is focused on receivers that produce other traces. As a result, reflectors are not shown in their true positions. Subsurface Discontinuities-Diffractions occur at discontinuities in the subsurface such as faults and velocity discontinuities (as at “bright spot” terminations). Bow-tie effect caused by the two deep-seated synclines. Seismic imaging of thrust faults and structural damage-deepwater thrust belts, Imaging deformation in submarine thrust belts using seismic attributes,Imaging thrust and fault zones using 3D seismic image processing techniques, Balanced structural cross sections seismic interpretation pitfalls checking, The seismic pitfalls can originate due to any or all of the limitations of data acquisition, processing, interpretation of the subsurface geology,Pitfalls and limitations in seismic attribute interpretation of tectonic features, Seismic attributes are routinely used to accelerate and quantify the interpretation of tectonic features in 3D seismic data. Coherence (or variance) cubes delineate the edges of megablocks and faulted strata, curvature delineates folds and flexures, while spectral components delineate lateral changes in thickness and lithology. Carbon capture and geological storage leakage surveillance because fault behave as a seal or a conduit for hydrocarbon transportation to a trap,etc.

Keywords: tectonics, seismic imaging, fold and thrust belts, seismic interpretation

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Robby Y. Tallar, Nikodemus L., Yuri S., Jian P. Suen

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Research in the subject of ecological water resources management is full of trivial questions addressed and it seems, today to be one branch of science that can strongly contribute to the study of complexity (physical, biological, ecological, socio-economic, environmental, and other aspects). Existing literature available on different facets of these studies, much of it is technical and targeted for specific users. This study offered the combination all aspects in evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes with its paradigm refer to hierarchical theory and to the effects of spatial specific arrangement of an object into a space or local area. Therefore, the process in developing a conceptual framework represents the more integrated and related applicable concept from the grounded theory. A design of integrated evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes is presented. The method is based on the identification of a series of attributes which can be used to describe status of aquaculture lakes using certain indicators from aquaculture water quality index (AWQI), aesthetic aquaculture lake index (AALI) and rapid appraisal for fisheries index (RAPFISH). The preliminary preparation could be accomplished as follows: first, the characterization of study area was undertaken at different spatial scales. Second, an inventory data as a core resource such as city master plan, water quality reports from environmental agency, and related government regulations. Third, ground-checking survey should be completed to validate the on-site condition of study area. In order to design an integrated evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes, finally we integrated and developed rating scores system which called Integrated Aquaculture Lake Index (IALI).The development of IALI are reflecting a compromise all aspects and it responds the needs of concise information about the current status of aquaculture lakes by the comprehensive approach. IALI was elaborated as a decision aid tool for stakeholders to evaluate the impact and contribution of anthropogenic activities on the aquaculture lake’s environment. The conclusion was while there is no denying the fact that the aquaculture lakes are under great threat from the pressure of the increasing human activities, one must realize that no evaluation methodology for aquaculture lakes can succeed by keeping the pristine condition. The IALI developed in this work can be used as an effective, low-cost evaluation methodology of aquaculture lakes for developing countries. Because IALI emphasizes the simplicity and understandability as it must communicate to decision makers and the experts. Moreover, stakeholders need to be helped to perceive their lakes so that sites can be accepted and valued by local people. For this site of lake development, accessibility and planning designation of the site is of decisive importance: the local people want to know whether the lake condition is safe or whether it can be used.

Keywords: aesthetic value, AHP, aquaculture lakes, integrated lakes, RAPFISH

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Markéta Chmelíková, David Ullrich, Iva Burešová

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The paper maps the possibilities and limits of diagnosing selected personality and performance characteristics of military leadership and psychology students in the context of coping with challenging situations. Individuals vary greatly inter-individually in their ability to effectively manage extreme situations, yet existing diagnostic tools are often criticized mainly for their low predictive power. Nowadays, every modern army focuses primarily on the systematic minimization of potential risks, including the prediction of desirable forms of behavior and the performance of military commanders. The context of military leadership is well known for its life-threatening nature. Therefore, it is crucial to research stress load in the specific context of military leadership for the purpose of possible anticipation of human failure in managing extreme situations of military leadership. The aim of the submitted pilot study, using an experiment of 24 hours duration, is to verify the possibilities of a specific combination of psychodiagnostic to predict people who possess suitable equipment for coping with increased stress load. In our pilot study, we conducted an experiment of 24 hours duration with an experimental group (N=13) in the bomb shelter and a control group (N=11) in a classroom. Both groups were represented by military leadership students (N=11) and psychology students (N=13). Both groups were equalized in terms of study type and gender. Participants were administered the following test battery of personality characteristics: Big Five Inventory 2 (BFI-2), Short Dark Triad (SD-3), Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ), Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS), and Impulsive Behavior Scale (UPPS-P). This test battery was administered only once at the beginning of the experiment. Along with this, they were administered a test battery consisting of the Test of Attention (d2) and the Bourdon test four times overall with 6 hours ranges. To better simulate an extreme situation – we tried to induce sleep deprivation - participants were required to try not to fall asleep throughout the experiment. Despite the assumption that a stay in an underground bomb shelter will manifest in impaired cognitive performance, this expectation has been significantly confirmed in only one measurement, which can be interpreted as marginal in the context of multiple testing. This finding is a fundamental insight into the issue of stress management in extreme situations, which is crucial for effective military leadership. The results suggest that a 24-hour stay in a shelter, together with sleep deprivation, does not seem to simulate sufficient stress for an individual, which would be reflected in the level of cognitive performance. In the context of these findings, it would be interesting in future to extend the diagnostic battery with physiological indicators of stress, such as: heart rate, stress score, physical stress, mental stress ect.

Keywords: bomb shelter, extreme situation, military leadership, psychodiagnostic

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Rene Hellmuth

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The requirements for the factory planning and the building concerned have changed in the last years. Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the building of a factory. Regular restructuring gains more importance in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions regarding new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) world cause more frequently occurring rebuilding measures within a factory. Restructuring of factories is the most common planning case today. Restructuring is more common than new construction, revitalization and dismantling of factories. The increasing importance of restructuring processes shows that the ability to change was and is a promising concept for the reaction of companies to permanently changing conditions. The factory building is the basis for most changes within a factory. If an adaptation of a construction project (factory) is necessary, the inventory documents must be checked and often time-consuming planning of the adaptation must take place to define the relevant components to be adapted, in order to be able to finally evaluate them. The different requirements of the planning participants from the disciplines of factory planning (production planner, logistics planner, automation planner) and industrial construction planning (architect, civil engineer) come together during reconstruction and must be structured. This raises the research question: Which requirements do the disciplines involved in the reconstruction planning place on a digital factory model? A subordinate research question is: How can model-based decision support be provided for a more efficient design of the conversion within a factory? Because of the high adaptation rate of factories and its building described above, a methodology for rescheduling factories based on the requirements engineering method from software development is conceived and designed for practical application in factory restructuring projects. The explorative research procedure according to Kubicek is applied. Explorative research is suitable if the practical usability of the research results has priority. Furthermore, it will be shown how to best use a digital factory model in practice. The focus will be on mobile applications to meet the needs of factory planners on site. An augmented reality (AR) application will be designed and created to provide decision support for planning variants. The aim is to contribute to a shortening of the planning process and model-based decision support for more efficient change management. This requires the application of a methodology that reduces the deficits of the existing approaches. The time and cost expenditure are represented in the AR tablet solution based on a building information model (BIM). Overall, the requirements of those involved in the planning process for a digital factory model in the case of restructuring within a factory are thus first determined in a structured manner. The results are then applied and transferred to a construction site solution based on augmented reality.

Keywords: augmented reality, digital factory model, factory planning, restructuring

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Authors: Elaine Lima Da Fonseca, Eliomar Pereira Da Silva Filho

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The modeling of areas susceptible to soil loss by hydro erosive processes consists of a simplified instrument of reality with the purpose of predicting future behaviors from the observation and interaction of a set of geoenvironmental factors. The models of potential areas for soil loss will be obtained through binary logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines. The choice of the municipality of Colorado do Oeste in the south of the western Amazon is due to soil degradation due to anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture, road construction, overgrazing, deforestation, and environmental and socioeconomic configurations. Initially, a soil erosion inventory map constructed through various field investigations will be designed, including the use of remotely piloted aircraft, orbital imagery, and the PLANAFLORO/RO database. 100 sampling units with the presence of erosion will be selected based on the assumptions indicated in the literature, and, to complement the dichotomous analysis, 100 units with no erosion will be randomly designated. The next step will be the selection of the predictive parameters that exert, jointly, directly, or indirectly, some influence on the mechanism of occurrence of soil erosion events. The chosen predictors are altitude, declivity, aspect or orientation of the slope, curvature of the slope, composite topographic index, flow power index, lineament density, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, lithology, soil type, erosivity, and ground surface temperature. After evaluating the relative contribution of each predictor variable, the erosion susceptibility model will be applied to the municipality of Colorado do Oeste - Rondônia through the SPSS Statistic 26 software. Evaluation of the model will occur through the determination of the values of the R² of Cox & Snell and the R² of Nagelkerke, Hosmer and Lemeshow Test, Log Likelihood Value, and Wald Test, in addition to analysis of the Confounding Matrix, ROC Curve and Accumulated Gain according to the model specification. The validation of the synthesis map resulting from both models of the potential risk of soil erosion will occur by means of Kappa indices, accuracy, and sensitivity, as well as by field verification of the classes of susceptibility to erosion using drone photogrammetry. Thus, it is expected to obtain the mapping of the following classes of susceptibility to erosion very low, low, moderate, very high, and high, which may constitute a screening tool to identify areas where more detailed investigations need to be carried out, applying more efficient social resources.

Keywords: modeling, susceptibility to erosion, artificial intelligence, Amazon

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Christopher Thornton, Niina Kolehmainen, Kianoush Nazarpour

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Background: Accelerometers are widely used to measure physical activity behavior, including in children. The traditional method for processing acceleration data uses cut points, relying on calibration studies that relate the quantity of acceleration to energy expenditure. As these relationships do not generalise across diverse populations, they must be parametrised for each subpopulation, including different age groups, which is costly and makes studies across diverse populations difficult. A data-driven approach that allows physical activity intensity states to emerge from the data under study without relying on parameters derived from external populations offers a new perspective on this problem and potentially improved results. We evaluated the data-driven approach in a diverse population with a range of rapidly evolving physical and mental capabilities, namely very young children (9-38 months old), where this new approach may be particularly appropriate. Methods: We applied an unsupervised machine learning approach (a hidden semi-Markov model - HSMM) to segment and cluster the accelerometer data recorded from 275 children with a diverse range of physical and cognitive abilities. The HSMM was configured to identify a maximum of six physical activity intensity states and the output of the model was the time spent by each child in each of the states. For comparison, we also processed the accelerometer data using published cut points with available thresholds for the population. This provided us with time estimates for each child’s sedentary (SED), light physical activity (LPA), and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Data on the children’s physical and cognitive abilities were collected using the Paediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory (PEDI-CAT). Results: The HSMM identified two inactive states (INS, comparable to SED), two lightly active long duration states (LAS, comparable to LPA), and two short-duration high-intensity states (HIS, comparable to MVPA). Overall, the children spent on average 237/392 minutes per day in INS/SED, 211/129 minutes per day in LAS/LPA, and 178/168 minutes in HIS/MVPA. We found that INS overlapped with 53% of SED, LAS overlapped with 37% of LPA and HIS overlapped with 60% of MVPA. We also looked at the correlation between the time spent by a child in either HIS or MVPA and their physical and cognitive abilities. We found that HIS was more strongly correlated with physical mobility (R²HIS =0.5, R²MVPA= 0.28), cognitive ability (R²HIS =0.31, R²MVPA= 0.15), and age (R²HIS =0.15, R²MVPA= 0.09), indicating increased sensitivity to key attributes associated with a child’s mobility. Conclusion: An unsupervised machine learning technique can segment and cluster accelerometer data according to the intensity of movement at a given time. It provides a potentially more sensitive, appropriate, and cost-effective approach to analysing physical activity behavior in diverse populations, compared to the current cut points approach. This, in turn, supports research that is more inclusive across diverse populations.

Keywords: physical activity, machine learning, under 5s, disability, accelerometer

Procedia PDF Downloads 210

Authors: Matthew McArthur, Margaret Friend

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The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the stability of the home environment for families across the world. Potential disruptions include parent work modality (in-person vs. remote), levels of health anxiety, family routines, and caregiving. These disruptions may have interfered with the processes of early vocabulary acquisition, carrying lasting effects over the life course. Our justification for this research is as follows: First, early, stable, caregiver-child reciprocal interactions, which may have been disrupted during the pandemic, contribute to the development of the brain architecture that supports language, cognitive, and social-emotional development. Second, early vocabulary predicts several cognitive outcomes, such as numeracy, literacy, and executive function. Further, disruption in the home is associated with adverse cognitive, academic, socio-emotional, behavioral, and communication outcomes in young children. We are interested in how disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with vocabulary acquisition in children born during the first two waves of the pandemic. We are conducting a moderated online experiment to assess this question. Participants are 16 children (10F) ranging in age from 19 to 39 months (M=25.27) and their caregivers. All child participants were screened for language background, health history, and history of language disorders, and were typically developing. Parents completed a modified version of the COVID-19 Family Stressor Scale (CoFaSS), a published measure of COVID-19-related family stressors. Thirteen items from the original scale were replaced to better capture change in family organization and stability specifically related to disruptions in income, anxiety, family relations, and childcare. Following completion of the modified CoFaSS, children completed a Web-Based version of the Computerized Comprehension Task and the Receptive One Word Picture Vocabulary if 24 months or older or the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventory if younger than 24 months. We report our preliminary data as a partial correlation analysis controlling for age. Raw vocabulary scores on the CCT, ROWPVT-4, and MCDI were all negatively associated with pandemic-related disruptions related to anxiety (r12=-.321; r1=-.332; r9=-.509), family relations (r12=-.590*; r1=-.155; r9=-.468), and childcare (r12=-.294; r1=-.468; r9=-.177). Although the small sample size for these preliminary data limits our power to detect significance, this trend is in the predicted direction, suggesting that increased pandemic-related disruption across multiple domains is associated with lower vocabulary scores. We anticipate presenting data on a full sample of 50 monolingual English participants. A sample of 50 participants would provide sufficient statistical power to detect a moderate effect size, adhering to a nominal alpha of 0.05 and ensuring a power level of 0.80.

Keywords: COVID-19, early vocabulary, home environment, language acquisition, multiple measures

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Authors: Kristina Colovic, Mari Janikian, Nikolaos Takis, Fotini-Sonia Apergi

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A considerable number of Afghan asylum seekers in Greece are still waiting for answers about their future and status for personal, social and societal advancement. Most have been trapped in a stalemate of continuously postponed or temporarily progressed levels of integration into the EU/Greek process of asylum. Limited quantitative research exists investigating the psychological effects of long-term displacement among Afghans refugees in Greece. The purpose of this study is to investigate factors that are associated with and predict psychological distress symptoms among this population. Data from a sample of native Afghan nationals (N > 70) living in Greece for approximately the last ten years will be collected from May to July 2016. Criteria for participation include the following: being 18 years of age or older, and emigration from Afghanistan to Greece from 2003 onwards (i.e., long-term refugees or part of the 'old system of asylum'). Snowball sampling will be used to recruit participants, as this is considered the most effective option when attempting to study refugee populations. Participants will complete self-report questionnaires, consisting of the Afghan Symptom Checklist (ASCL), a culturally validated measure of psychological distress, the World Health Organization Quality of Life scale (WHOQOL-BREF), an adapted version of the Comprehensive Trauma Inventory-104 (CTI-104), and a modified Psychological Acculturation Scale. All instruments will be translated in Greek, through the use of forward- and back-translations by bilingual speakers of English and Greek, following WHO guidelines. A pilot study with 5 Afghan participants will take place to check for discrepancies in understanding and for further adapting the instruments as needed. Demographic data, including age, gender, year of arrival to Greece and current asylum status will be explored. Three different types of analyses (descriptive statistics, bivariate correlations, and multivariate linear regression) will be used in this study. Descriptive findings for respondent demographics, psychological distress symptoms, traumatic life events and quality of life will be reported. Zero-order correlations will assess the interrelationships among demographic, traumatic life events, psychological distress, and quality of life variables. Lastly, a multivariate linear regression model will be estimated. The findings from the study will contribute to understanding the determinants of acculturation, distress and trauma on daily functioning for Afghans in Greece. The main implications of the current study will be to advocate for capacity building and empower communities through effective program evaluation and design for mental health services for all refugee populations in Greece.

Keywords: Afghan refugees, evaluation, Greece, mental health, quality of life

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Rayanne Branco Dos Santos Lima, Lorena Pinheiro Barbosa, Kamila Ferreira Lima, Victor Manuel Tegoma Ruiz, Monyka Brito Lima Dos Santos, Maria Wendiane Gueiros Gaspar, Luzia Camila Coelho Ferreira, Leandro Cardozo Dos Santos Brito, Deyse Maria Alves Rocha

Abstract:

Introduction: The lack of regulation of the baby's sleep-wake pattern in the first years of life affects the health of thousands of women. Maternal sleep deprivation can trigger or aggravate psychosomatic problems such as depression, anxiety and stress that can directly influence maternal safety, with consequences for the baby's and mother's sleep. Such conditions can affect the family's quality of life and child development. Objective: To correlate maternal security with maternal state anxiety scores and the mother's and baby's total sleep time. Method: Cross-sectional study carried out with 96 mothers of babies aged 10 to 24 months, accompanied by nursing professionals linked to a Federal University in Northeast Brazil. Study variables were maternal security, maternal state anxiety scores, infant latency and sleep time, and total nocturnal sleep time of mother and infant. Maternal safety was calculated using a four-point Likert scale (1=not at all safe, 2=somewhat safe, 3=very safe, 4=completely safe). Maternal anxiety was measured by State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, state-anxiety subscale whose scores vary from 20 to 80 points, and the higher the score, the higher the anxiety levels. Scores below 33 are considered mild; from 33 to 49, moderate and above 49, high. As for the total nocturnal sleep time, values between 7-9 hours of sleep were considered adequate for mothers, and values between 9-12 hours for the baby, according to the guidelines of the National Sleep Foundation. For the sleep latency time, a time equal to or less than 20 min was considered adequate. It is noteworthy that the latency time and the time of night sleep of the mother and the baby were obtained by the mother's subjective report. To correlate the data, Spearman's correlation was used in the statistical package R version 3.6.3. Results: 96 women and babies participated, aged 22 to 38 years (mean 30.8) and 10 to 24 months (mean 14.7), respectively. The average of maternal security was 2.89 (unsafe); Mean maternal state anxiety scores were 43.75 (moderate anxiety). The babies' average sleep latency time was 39.6 min (>20 min). The mean sleep times of the mother and baby were, respectively, 6h and 42min and 8h and 19min, both less than the recommended nocturnal sleep time. Maternal security was positively correlated with maternal state anxiety scores (rh=266, p=0.009) and negatively correlated with infant sleep latency (rh= -0.30. P=0.003). Baby sleep time was positively correlated with maternal sleep time. (rh 0.46, p<0.001). Conclusion: The more secure the mothers considered themselves, the higher the anxiety scores and the shorter the baby's sleep latency. Also, the longer the baby sleeps, the longer the mother sleeps. Thus, interventions are needed to promote the quality and efficiency of sleep for both mother and baby.

Keywords: sleep, anxiety, infant, mother-child relations

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Mehdi Boukri, Mohammed Naboussi Farsi, Mounir Naili, Omar Amellal, Mohamed Belazougui, Ahmed Mebarki, Nabila Guessoum, Brahim Mezazigh, Mounir Ait-Belkacem, Nacim Yousfi, Mohamed Bouaoud, Ikram Boukal, Aboubakr Fettar, Asma Souki

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The seismic risk to which the urban centres are more and more exposed became a world concern. A co-operation on an international scale is necessary for an exchange of information and experiments for the prevention and the installation of action plans in the countries prone to this phenomenon. For that, the 1990s was designated as 'International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)' by the United Nations, whose interest was to promote the capacity to resist the various natural, industrial and environmental disasters. Within this framework, it was launched in 1996, the RADIUS project (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster), whose the main objective is to mitigate seismic risk in developing countries, through the development of a simple and fast methodological and operational approach, allowing to evaluate the vulnerability as well as the socio-economic losses, by probable earthquake scenarios in the exposed urban areas. In this paper, we will present the adaptation and application of this methodology to the Algerian context for the seismic risk evaluation in urban areas potentially exposed to earthquakes. This application consists to perform an earthquake scenario in the urban centre of Constantine city, located at the North-East of Algeria, which will allow the building seismic damage estimation of this city. For that, an inventory of 30706 building units was carried out by the National Earthquake Engineering Research Centre (CGS). These buildings were digitized in a data base which comprises their technical information by using a Geographical Information system (GIS), and then they were classified according to the RADIUS methodology. The study area was subdivided into 228 meshes of 500m on side and Ten (10) sectors of which each one contains a group of meshes. The results of this earthquake scenario highlights that the ratio of likely damage is about 23%. This severe damage results from the high concentration of old buildings and unfavourable soil conditions. This simulation of the probable seismic damage of the building and the GIS damage maps generated provide a predictive evaluation of the damage which can occur by a potential earthquake near to Constantine city. These theoretical forecasts are important for decision makers in order to take the adequate preventive measures and to develop suitable strategies, prevention and emergency management plans to reduce these losses. They can also help to take the adequate emergency measures in the most impacted areas in the early hours and days after an earthquake occurrence.

Keywords: seismic risk, mitigation, RADIUS, urban areas, Algeria, earthquake scenario, Constantine

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Robert H. Bradley

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Many minority adolescents in the United States live in adverse circumstances that pose long-term threats to their well-being. A strong sense of personal control and self-efficacy can help youth mitigate some of those risks and may help protect youth from influences connected with deviant peer groups. Accordingly, it is important to identify conditions that help foster feelings of efficacy in areas that seem critical for the accomplishment of developmental tasks during adolescence. The purpose of this study is to examine two aspects of the home environment (modeling and encouragement of maturity, family companionship and investment) and their relation to three components of self efficacy (self efficacy in enlisting social resources, self efficacy for engaging in independent learning, and self-efficacy for self-regulatory behavior) in three groups of minority adolescents (Native American, African American, Latino). The sample for this study included 54 Native American, 131 African American, and 159 Latino families, each with a child between 16 and 20 years old. The families were recruited from four states: Arizona, Arkansas, California, and Oklahoma. Each family was administered the Late Adolescence version of the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment (HOME) Inventory and each adolescent completed a 30-item measure of perceived self-efficacy. Three areas of self-efficacy beliefs were examined for this study: enlisting social resources, independent learning, and self-regulation. Each of the three areas of self-efficacy was regressed on the two aspects of the home environment plus overall household risk. For Native Americans, modeling and encouragement were significant for self-efficacy pertaining to enlisting social resources and independent learning. For African Americans, companionship and investment was significant in all three models. For Latinos, modeling and encouragement was significant for self-efficacy pertaining to enlisting social resources and companionship and investment were significant for the other two areas of self-efficacy. The findings show that even as minority adolescents are becoming more individuated from their parents, the quality of experiences at home continues to be associated with their feelings of self-efficacy in areas important for adaptive functioning in adult life. Specifically, individuals can develop a sense that they are efficacious in performing key tasks relevant to work, social relationships, and management of their own behavior if they are guided in how to deal with key challenges and they have been exposed and supported by others who are competent in dealing with such challenges. The findings presented in this study would seem useful given that there is so little current research on home environmental factors connected to self-efficacy beliefs among adolescents in the three groups examined. It would seem worthwhile that personnel from health, human service and juvenile justice agencies give attention to supporting parents in communicating with adolescents, offering expectations to adolescents in mutually supportive ways, and in engaging with adolescents in productive activities. In comparison to programs for parents of young children, there are few specifically designed for parents of children in middle childhood and adolescence.

Keywords: family companionship, home environment, household income, modeling, self-efficacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: J. Hash, J. Converse, L. Gibson

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Plant medicines are of growing interest for addressing mental health concerns. Ayahuasca, a traditional plant-based medicine, has established itself as a powerful way of processing trauma and precipitating healing and mood stabilization. Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing (EMDR) is another treatment modality that aids in the rapid processing and resolution of trauma. We investigated group EMDR therapy, G-TEP, as a preparatory practice before Ayahuasca ceremonies to determine if the combination of these modalities supports participants in their journeys of letting go of past experiences negatively impacting mental health, thereby accentuating the healing of the plant medicine. We surveyed 96 participants (51 experimental G-TEP, 45 control grounding prior to their ceremony; age M=38.6, SD=9.1; F=57, M=34; white=39, Hispanic/Latinx=23, multiracial=11, Asian/Pacific Islander=10, other=7) in a pre-post, mixed methods design. Participants were surveyed for demographic characteristics, symptoms of PTSD and cPTSD (International Trauma Questionnaire (ITQ), depression (Beck Depression Inventory, BDI), and stress (Perceived Stress Scale, PSS) before the ceremony and at the end of the ceremony weekend. Open-ended questions also inquired about their expectations of the ceremony and results at the end. No baseline differences existed between the control and experimental participants. Overall, participants reported a decrease in meeting the threshold for PTSD symptoms (p<0.01); surprisingly, the control group reported significantly fewer thresholds met for symptoms of affective dysregulation, 2(1)=6.776, p<.01, negative self-concept, 2 (1)=7.122, p<.01, and disturbance in relationships, 2 (1)=9.804, p<.01, on subscales of the ITQ as compared to the experimental group. All participants also experienced a significant decrease in scores on the BDI, t(94)=8.995, p<.001, and PSS, t(91)=6.892, p<.001. Similar to patterns of PTSD symptoms, the control group reported significantly lower scores on the BDI, t(65.115)=-2.587, p<.01, and a trend toward lower PSS, t(90)=-1.775, p=.079 (this was significant with a one-sided test at p<.05), compared to the experimental group following the ceremony. Qualitative interviews among participants revealed a potential explanation for these relatively higher levels of depression and stress in the experimental group following the ceremony. Many participants reported needing more time to process their experience to gain an understanding of the effects of the Ayahuasca medicine. Others reported a sense of hopefulness and understanding of the sources of their trauma and the necessary steps to heal moving forward. This suggests increased introspection and openness to processing trauma, therefore making them more receptive to their emotions. The integration process of an Ayahuasca ceremony is a week- to months-long process that was not accessible in this stage of research, yet it is an integral process to understanding the full effects of the Ayahuasca medicine following the closure of a ceremony. Our future research aims to assess participants weeks into their integration process to determine the effectiveness of EMDR, and if the higher levels of depression and stress indicate the initial reaction to greater awareness of trauma and receptivity to healing.

Keywords: ayahuasca, EMDR, PTSD, mental health

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Nicholas Anderson, Steven Petersen, Tom Bates, Val Anderson

Abstract:

Under the multiple-use management regime established in the United States for federally owned lands, government agencies have come under pressure from commercial apiaries to grant permits for the summer pasturing of honeybees on government lands. Federal agencies have struggled to integrate honeybees into their management plans and have little information to make regulations that resolve how many colonies should be allowed in a single location and at what distance sets of hives should be placed. Many conservation groups have voiced their concerns regarding the introduction of honeybees to these natural lands, as they may outcompete and displace native pollinating species. Assessing the quality of an area in regard to its floral resources, pollen, and nectar can be important when attempting to create regulations for the integration of commercial honeybee operations into a native ecosystem. Areas with greater floral resources may be able to support larger numbers of honeybee colonies, while poorer resource areas may be less resilient to introduced disturbances. Attempts are made in this study to determine flower cover using high resolution drone imagery to help assess the floral resource availability to pollinators in high elevation, tall forb communities. This knowledge will help in determining the potential that different areas may have for honeybee pasturing and honey production. Roughly 700 images were captured at 23m above ground level using a drone equipped with a Sony QX1 RGB 20-megapixel camera. These images were stitched together using Pix4D, resulting in a 60m diameter high-resolution mosaic of a tall forb meadow. Using the program ENVI, a supervised maximum likelihood classification was conducted to calculate the percentage of total flower cover and flower cover by color (blue, white, and yellow). A complete vegetation inventory was taken on site, and the major flowers contributing to each color class were noted. An accuracy assessment was performed on the classification yielding an 89% overall accuracy and a Kappa Statistic of 0.855. With this level of accuracy, drones provide an affordable and time efficient method for the assessment of floral cover in large areas. The proximal step of this project will now be to determine the average pollen and nectar loads carried by each flower species. The addition of this knowledge will result in a quantifiable method of measuring pollen and nectar resources of entire landscapes. This information will not only help land managers determine stocking rates for honeybees on public lands but also has applications in the agricultural setting, aiding producers in the determination of the number of honeybee colonies necessary for proper pollination of fruit and nut crops.

Keywords: honeybee, flower, pollinator, remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Digdem M. Siyez, Bariscan Ozturk, Erol Esen, Ender Siyez, Yelda Kagnici, Bahar Baran

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Infertility is a reproductive disease identified with the absence of pregnancy after regular unprotected sexual intercourse that has been lasting for 12 months or more. Some of the factors that cause infertility, which has been considered as a social and societal issue since the first days of the humankind, are preventable. These are veneral diseases, age, the frequency of the intercourse and its timing, drug use, bodyweight, environmental and professional conditions. Having actual information about the reproductive health is essential to take protective and preventive measures, and it is accepted as the most effective way to reduce the rate of infertility. However, during the literature review, it has been observed that there are so few studies that focus on the prevention of the infertility. The aim of this study is to develop a psycho-education program to reduce infertility among university students and also to evaluate the program’s effectiveness. It is believed that this program will increase the information level about infertility among the university students, help them to adopt healthy attitudes, develop life skills, create awareness about the risk factors and also contribute to the literature. Throughout the study, first, the contents of sexual/reproductive health programs developed for university students were examined by the researches. Besides, “Views about Reproductive Health Psycho-education Program Survey” was developed and applied to 10221 university students from 21 universities. In accordance with the literature and the university students’ views about reproductive health psycho-education program consisting of 9 sessions each of which lasts for 90 minutes was developed. The pilot program was carried out with 16 volunteer undergraduate students attending to a state university. During the evaluation of the pilot study, at the end of each session “Session Evaluation Form” and at the end of the entire program “Program Evaluation Form” were administered to the participants. Besides, one week after the end of the program, a focus group with half of the group, and individual interviews with the rest were conducted. Based on the evaluations, it was determined that the session duration is enough, the teaching methods meet the expectation, the techniques applied are appropriate and clear, and the materials are adequate. Also, an extra session was added to psycho-education program based on the feedbacks of the participants. In order to evaluate program’s effectiveness, Solomon control group design will be used. According to this design, the research has 2 experiment groups and 2 control groups. The participants who voluntarily participated in the research after the announcement of the psycho-education program were divided into experiment and control groups. In the experiment 1 and control 1 groups, “Personal Information Test”, “Infertility Information Test” and “Infertility Attitude Scale”, “Self Identification Inventory” and “Melbourne Decision Scale” were administered as a preliminary test. Currently, at the present stage, psycho-education still continues. After this 10-week program, the same tests will be administered again as the post-tests. The decision upon which statistical method will be applied in the analysis will be made afterwards according to whether the data meets the presuppositions or not.

Keywords: infertility, prevention, psycho-education, reproductive health

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Stamatia Nasiakou, Dimitrios Chouvardas, Michael Vrahnakis, Vassiliki Kleftoyanni

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Recent research in the mountainous and semi-mountainous rural landscapes of Greece shows that they have been significantly changed over the last 80 years. These changes have the form of structural modification of land cover/use patterns, with the main characteristic being the extensive expansion of dense forests and shrubs at the expense of grasslands and extensive agricultural areas. The aim of this research was to study the 60-year changes (1960-2019) of land cover/ use units in the rural landscape of Mouzaki (Karditsa Prefecture, central Greece). Relevant cartographic material such as forest land use maps, digital maps (Corine Land Cover -2018), 1960 aerial photos from Hellenic Military Geographical Service, and satellite imagery (Google Earth Pro 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2019) was collected and processed in order to study landscape evolution. ArcGIS v 10.2.2 software was used to process the cartographic material and to produce several sets of data. Main product of the analysis was a digitized photo-mosaic of the 1960 aerial photographs, a digitized photo-mosaic of recent satellite images (2014, 2016, 2017 and 2019), and diagrams and maps of temporal transformation of the rural landscape (1960 – 2019). Maps and diagrams were produced by applying photointerpretation techniques and a suitable land cover/ use classification system on the two photo-mosaics. Demographic and socioeconomic inventory data was also collected mainly from diachronic census reports of the Hellenic Statistical Authority and local sources. Data analysis of the temporal transformation of land cover/ use units showed that they are mainly located in the central and south-eastern part of the study area, which mainly includes the mountainous part of the landscape. The most significant change is the expansion of the dense forests that currently dominate the southern and eastern part of the landscape. In conclusion, the produced diagrams and maps of the land cover/ use evolution suggest that woody vegetation in the rural landscape of Mouzaki has significantly increased over the past 60 years at the expense of the open areas, especially grasslands and agricultural areas. Demographic changes, land abandonment and the transformation of traditional farming practices (e.g. agroforestry) were recognized as the main cause of the landscape change. This study is part of a broader research project entitled “Perspective of Agroforestry in Thessaly region: A research on social, environmental and economic aspects to enhance farmer participation”. The project is funded by the General Secretariat for Research and Technology (GSRT) and the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (HFRI).

Keywords: Agroforestry, Forest expansion, Land cover/ use changes, Mountainous and semi-mountainous areas

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Authors: C. Silveira, A. Ascenso, J. Ferreira, A. I. Miranda, P. Tuccella, G. Curci

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Poor air quality is one of the main environmental causes of premature deaths worldwide, and mainly in cities, where the majority of the population lives. It is a consequence of successive land cover (LC) and use changes, as a result of the intensification of human activities. Knowing these landscape modifications in a comprehensive spatiotemporal dimension is, therefore, essential for understanding variations in air pollutant concentrations. In this sense, the use of air quality models is very useful to simulate the physical and chemical processes that affect the dispersion and reaction of chemical species into the atmosphere. However, the modelling performance should always be evaluated since the resolution of the input datasets largely dictates the reliability of the air quality outcomes. Among these data, the updated LC is an important parameter to be considered in atmospheric models, since it takes into account the Earth’s surface changes due to natural and anthropic actions, and regulates the exchanges of fluxes (emissions, heat, moisture, etc.) between the soil and the air. This work aims to evaluate the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), when different LC classifications are used as an input. The influence of two LC classifications was tested: i) the 24-classes USGS (United States Geological Survey) LC database included by default in the model, and the ii) CLC (Corine Land Cover) and specific high-resolution LC data for Portugal, reclassified according to the new USGS nomenclature (33-classes). Two distinct WRF-Chem simulations were carried out to assess the influence of the LC on air quality over Europe and Portugal, as a case study, for the year 2015, using the nesting technique over three simulation domains (25 km², 5 km² and 1 km² horizontal resolution). Based on the 33-classes LC approach, particular emphasis was attributed to Portugal, given the detail and higher LC spatial resolution (100 m x 100 m) than the CLC data (5000 m x 5000 m). As regards to the air quality, only the LC impacts on tropospheric ozone concentrations were evaluated, because ozone pollution episodes typically occur in Portugal, in particular during the spring/summer, and there are few research works relating to this pollutant with LC changes. The WRF-Chem results were validated by season and station typology using background measurements from the Portuguese air quality monitoring network. As expected, a better model performance was achieved in rural stations: moderate correlation (0.4 – 0.7), BIAS (10 – 21µg.m^-3) and RMSE (20 – 30 µg.m^-3), and where higher average ozone concentrations were estimated. Comparing both simulations, small differences grounded on the Leaf Area Index and air temperature values were found, although the high-resolution LC approach shows a slight enhancement in the model evaluation. This highlights the role of the LC on the exchange of atmospheric fluxes, and stresses the need to consider a high-resolution LC characterization combined with other detailed model inputs, such as the emission inventory, to improve air quality assessment.

Keywords: land use, spatial resolution, WRF-Chem, air quality assessment

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Authors: Sakinah Idris, Gabrine Jagersma, Bjorn Jaime Van Pelt, Kirstin Greaves-Lord

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Background: The PEERS (Program for the Education and Enrichment of Relational Skills) intervention can be considered a well-established, evidence-based intervention in the USA. However, testing the efficacy of cultural adaptations of PEERS is still ongoing. More and more, the involvement of all stakeholders in the development and evaluation of interventions is acknowledged as crucial for the longer term implementation of interventions across settings. Therefore, in the current project, teens with ASD (Autism Spectrum Disorder), their neurotypical peers, parents, teachers, as well as clinicians were involved in the development and evaluation of the Dutch version of PEERS. Objectives: The current presentation covers (1) the formative phase and (2) the preliminary adaptation test phase of the cultural adaptation of evidence-based interventions. In the formative phase, we aim to describe the process of adaptation of the PEERS program to the Dutch culture and care system. In the preliminary adaptation phase, we will present results from the preliminary adaptation test among 32 adolescents with ASD. Methods: In phase 1, a group discussion on common vocabulary was conducted among 70 teenagers (and their teachers) from special and regular education aged 12-18 years old. This inventory concerned 14 key constructs from PEERS, e.g., areas of interests, locations for making friends, common peer groups and crowds inside and outside of school, activities with friends, commonly used ways for electronic communication, ways for handling disagreements, and common teasing comebacks. Also, 15 clinicians were involved in the translation and cultural adaptation process. The translation and cultural adaptation process were guided by the research team, and who included input and feedback from all stakeholders through an iterative feedback incorporation procedure. In phase 2, The parent-reported Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS), the Test of Adolescent Social Skills Knowledge (TASSK), and the Quality of Socialization Questionnaire (QSQ) were assessed pre- and post-intervention to evaluate potential treatment outcome. Results: The most striking cultural adaptation - reflecting the standpoints of all stakeholders - concerned the strategies for handling rumors and gossip, which were suggested to be taught using a similar approach as the teasing comebacks, more in line with ‘down-to-earth’ Dutch standards. The preliminary testing of this adapted version indicated that the adolescents with ASD significantly improved their social knowledge (TASSK; t₃₁ = -10.9, p < .01), social experience (QSQ-Parent; t₃₁ = -4.2, p < .01 and QSQ-Adolescent; t₃₂ = -3.8, p < .01), and in parent-reported social responsiveness (SRS; t₃₃ = 3.9, p < .01). In addition, subjective evaluations of teens with ASD, their parents and clinicians were positive. Conclusions: In order to further scrutinize the effectiveness of the Dutch version of the PEERS intervention, we recommended performing a larger scale randomized control trial (RCT) design, for which we provide several methodological considerations.

Keywords: cultural adaptation, PEERS, preliminary testing, translation

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Authors: Marc Toutain, Pascale Leconte, Antoine Gauthier

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Introduction: Eating Disorders (ED), such as anorexia, bulimia, and binge eating, are psychiatric illnesses that mostly affect young people. The main symptoms concern eating (restriction, excessive food intake) and weight control behaviors (laxatives, vomiting). Psychological comorbidities (depression, executive function disorders, etc.) and problematic behaviors toward physical activity (PA) are commonly associated with ED. Acquaintances on ED risk factors are still lacking, and more community sample studies are needed to improve prevention and early detection. To our knowledge, studies are needed to specifically investigate the link between ED risk level, PA, and psychological risk factors in a community sample of adolescents. The aim of this study is to assess the relation between ED risk level, exercise (type, frequency, and motivations for engaging in exercise), and psychological factors based on the Jacobi risk factors model. We suppose that a high risk of ED will be associated with the practice of high caloric cost PA, motivations oriented to weight and shape control, and psychological disturbances. Method: An online survey destined for students has been sent to several middle schools and colleges in northwest France. This survey combined several questionnaires, the Eating Attitude Test-26 assessing ED risk; the Exercise Motivation Inventory–2 assessing motivations toward PA; the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale assessing anxiety and depression, the Contour Drawing Rating Scale; and the Body Esteem Scale assessing body dissatisfaction, Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale assessing self-esteem, the Exercise Dependence Scale-Revised assessing PA dependence, the Multidimensional Assessment of Interoceptive Awareness assessing interoceptive awareness and the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale assessing perfectionism. Machine learning analysis will be performed in order to constitute groups with a tree-based model clustering method, extract risk profile(s) with a bootstrap method comparison, and predict ED risk with a prediction method based on a decision tree-based model. Expected results: 1044 complete records have already been collected, and the survey will be closed at the end of May 2022. Records will be analyzed with a clustering method and a bootstrap method in order to reveal risk profile(s). Furthermore, a predictive tree decision method will be done to extract an accurate predictive model of ED risk. This analysis will confirm typical main risk factors and will give more data on presumed strong risk factors such as exercise motivations and interoceptive deficit. Furthermore, it will enlighten particular risk profiles with a strong level of proof and greatly contribute to improving the early detection of ED and contribute to a better understanding of ED risk factors.

Keywords: eating disorders, risk factors, physical activity, machine learning

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Authors: R. Tamborrino, F. Rinaudo

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Digital technologies offer possibilities to effectively convert historical archives into instruments of knowledge able to provide a guide for the interpretation of historical phenomena. Digital conversion and management of those documents allow the possibility to add other sources in a unique and coherent model that permits the intersection of different data able to open new interpretations and understandings. Urban history uses, among other sources, the inventories that register human activities in a specific space (e.g. cadastres, censuses, etc.). The geographic localisation of that information inside cartographic supports allows for the comprehension and visualisation of specific relationships between different historical realities registering both the urban space and the peoples living there. These links that merge the different nature of data and documentation through a new organisation of the information can suggest a new interpretation of other related events. In all these kinds of analysis, the use of GIS platforms today represents the most appropriate answer. The design of the related databases is the key to realise the ad-hoc instrument to facilitate the analysis and the intersection of data of different origins. Moreover, GIS has become the digital platform where it is possible to add other kinds of data visualisation. This research deals with the industrial development of Turin at the beginning of the 20th century. A census of factories realized just prior to WWI provides the opportunity to test the potentialities of GIS platforms for the analysis of urban landscape modifications during the first industrial development of the town. The inventory includes data about location, activities, and people. GIS is shaped in a creative way linking different sources and digital systems aiming to create a new type of platform conceived as an interface integrating different kinds of data visualisation. The data processing allows linking this information to an urban space, and also visualising the growth of the city at that time. The sources, related to the urban landscape development in that period, are of a different nature. The emerging necessity to build, enlarge, modify and join different buildings to boost the industrial activities, according to their fast development, is recorded by different official permissions delivered by the municipality and now stored in the Historical Archive of the Municipality of Turin. Those documents, which are reports and drawings, contain numerous data on the buildings themselves, including the block where the plot is located, the district, and the people involved such as the owner, the investor, and the engineer or architect designing the industrial building. All these collected data offer the possibility to firstly re-build the process of change of the urban landscape by using GIS and 3D modelling technologies thanks to the access to the drawings (2D plans, sections and elevations) that show the previous and the planned situation. Furthermore, they access information for different queries of the linked dataset that could be useful for different research and targets such as economics, biographical, architectural, or demographical. By superimposing a layer of the present city, the past meets to the present-industrial heritage, and people meet urban history.

Keywords: digital urban history, census, digitalisation, GIS, modelling, digital humanities

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Authors: Egemen Sert, Leila Hedayatifar, Rachel A. Rigg, Amir Akhavan, Olha Buchel, Dominic Elias Saadi, Aabir Abubaker Kar, Alfredo J. Morales, Yaneer Bar-Yam

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The complexity of providing timely and cost-effective distribution of finished goods from industrial facilities to customers makes effective operational coordination difficult, yet effectiveness is crucial for maintaining customer service levels and sustaining a business. Logistics planning becomes increasingly complex with growing numbers of customers, varied geographical locations, the uncertainty of future orders, and sometimes extreme competitive pressure to reduce inventory costs. Linear optimization methods become cumbersome or intractable due to a large number of variables and nonlinear dependencies involved. Here we develop a complex systems approach to optimizing logistics networks based upon dimensional reduction methods and apply our approach to a case study of a manufacturing company. In order to characterize the complexity in customer behavior, we define a “customer space” in which individual customer behavior is described by only the two most relevant dimensions: the distance to production facilities over current transportation routes and the customer's demand frequency. These dimensions provide essential insight into the domain of effective strategies for customers; direct and indirect strategies. In the direct strategy, goods are sent to the customer directly from a production facility using box or bulk trucks. In the indirect strategy, in advance of an order by the customer, goods are shipped to an external warehouse near a customer using trains and then "last-mile" shipped by trucks when orders are placed. Each strategy applies to an area of the customer space with an indeterminate boundary between them. Specific company policies determine the location of the boundary generally. We then identify the optimal delivery strategy for each customer by constructing a detailed model of costs of transportation and temporary storage in a set of specified external warehouses. Customer spaces help give an aggregate view of customer behaviors and characteristics. They allow policymakers to compare customers and develop strategies based on the aggregate behavior of the system as a whole. In addition to optimization over existing facilities, using customer logistics and the k-means algorithm, we propose additional warehouse locations. We apply these methods to a medium-sized American manufacturing company with a particular logistics network, consisting of multiple production facilities, external warehouses, and customers along with three types of shipment methods (box truck, bulk truck and train). For the case study, our method forecasts 10.5% savings on yearly transportation costs and an additional 4.6% savings with three new warehouses.

Keywords: logistics network optimization, direct and indirect strategies, K-means algorithm, dimensional reduction

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Authors: Hollie Ashworth, Sarah Heath, Nick Bryan, Liam Abrahamsen, Simon Kellet

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Sellafield has a number of fuel storage ponds, some of which have been open to the air for a number of decades. This has caused corrosion of the fuel resulting in a release of some activity into solution, reduced water clarity, and accumulation of sludge at the bottom of the pond consisting of brucite (Mg(OH)2) and other uranium corrosion products. Both of these phases are also present as colloidal material. 90Sr and 137Cs are known to constitute a small volume of the radionuclides present in the pond, but a large fraction of the activity, thus they are most at risk of challenging effluent discharge limits. Organic molecules are known to be present also, due to the ponds being open to the air, with occasional algal blooms restricting visibility further. The contents of the pond need to be retrieved and safely stored, but dealing with such a complex, undefined inventory poses a unique challenge. This work aims to determine and understand the sorption-desorption interactions of 90Sr and 137Cs to brucite and uranium phases, with and without the presence of organic molecules from chemical degradation and bio-organisms. The influence of organics on these interactions has not been widely studied. Partitioning of these radionuclides and organic molecules has been determined through LSC, ICP-AES/MS, and UV-vis spectrophotometry coupled with ultrafiltration in both binary and ternary systems. Further detailed analysis into the surface and bonding environment of these components is being investigated through XAS techniques and PHREEQC modelling. Experiments were conducted in CO2-free or N2 atmosphere across a high pH range in order to best simulate conditions in the pond. Humic acid used in brucite systems demonstrated strong competition against 90Sr for the brucite surface regardless of the order of addition of components. Variance of pH did have a small effect, however this range (10.5-11.5) is close to the pHpzc of brucite, causing the surface to buffer the solution pH towards that value over the course of the experiment. Sorption of 90Sr to UO2 obeyed Ho’s rate equation and demonstrated a slow second-order reaction with respect to the sharing of valence electrons from the strontium atom, with the initial rate clearly dependent on pH, with the equilibrium concentration calculated at close to 100% sorption. There was no influence of humic acid seen when introduced to these systems. Sorption of 137Cs to UO3 was significant, with more than 95% sorbed in just over 24 hours. Again, humic acid showed no influence when introduced into this system. Both brucite and uranium based systems will be studied with the incorporation of cyanobacterial cultures harvested at different stages of growth. Investigation of these systems provides insight into, and understanding of, the effect of organics on radionuclide partitioning to brucite and uranium phases at high pH. The majority of sorption-desorption work for radionuclides has been conducted at neutral to acidic pH values, and mostly without organics. These studies are particularly important for the characterisation of legacy wastes at Sellafield, with a view to their safe retrieval and storage.

Keywords: caesium, legacy wastes, organics, sorption-desorption, strontium, uranium

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Authors: Maryam Ziaee

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This research proposes a new approach and provides an opportunity for manufacturing companies to produce large amounts of products that meet their prospective customers’ tastes, needs, and expectations and simultaneously enable manufacturers to increase their profit. Mass customization is the production of products or services to meet each individual customer’s desires to the greatest possible extent in high quantities and at reasonable prices. This process takes place at different levels such as the customization of goods’ design, assembly, sale, and delivery status, and classifies in several categories. The main focus of this study is on one class of mass customization, called optional customization, in which companies try to provide their customers with as many options as possible to customize their products. These options could range from the design phase to the manufacturing phase, or even methods of delivery. Mass customization values customers’ tastes, but it is only one side of clients’ satisfaction; on the other side is companies’ fast responsiveness delivery. It brings the concept of agility, which is the ability of a company to respond rapidly to changes in volatile markets in terms of volume and variety. Indeed, mass customization is not effectively feasible without integrating the concept of agility. To gain the customers’ satisfaction, the companies need to be quick in responding to their customers’ demands, thus highlighting the significance of agility. This research offers a different method that successfully integrates mass customization and fast production in manufacturing industries. This research is built upon the hypothesis that the success key to being agile in mass customization is to forecast demand, cooperate with suppliers, and control inventory. Therefore, the significance of the supply chain (SC) is more pertinent when it comes to this stage. Since SC behavior is dynamic and its behavior changes constantly, companies have to apply one of the predicting techniques to identify the changes associated with SC behavior to be able to respond properly to any unwelcome events. System dynamics utilized in this research is a simulation approach to provide a mathematical model among different variables to understand, control, and forecast SC behavior. The final stage is delayed differentiation, the production strategy considered in this research. In this approach, the main platform of products is produced and stocked and when the company receives an order from a customer, a specific customized feature is assigned to this platform and the customized products will be created. The main research question is to what extent applying system dynamics for the prediction of SC behavior improves the agility of mass customization. This research is built upon a qualitative approach to bring about richer, deeper, and more revealing results. The data is collected through interviews and is analyzed through NVivo software. This proposed model offers numerous benefits such as reduction in the number of product inventories and their storage costs, improvement in the resilience of companies’ responses to their clients’ needs and tastes, the increase of profits, and the optimization of productivity with the minimum level of lost sales.

Keywords: agility, manufacturing, resilience, supply chain

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