Search results for: wheat yield prediction

Authors: Yijun Shao, Yan Cheng, Rashmee U. Shah, Charlene R. Weir, Bruce E. Bray, Qing Zeng-Treitler

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Deep neural network (DNN) models are being explored in the clinical domain, following the recent success in other domains such as image recognition. For clinical adoption, outcome prediction models require explanation, but due to the multiple non-linear inner transformations, DNN models are viewed by many as a black box. In this study, we developed a deep neural network model for predicting 1-year mortality of patients who underwent major cardio vascular procedures (MCVPs), using temporal image representation of past medical history as input. The dataset was obtained from the electronic medical data warehouse administered by Veteran Affairs Information and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). We identified 21,355 veterans who had their first MCVP in 2014. Features for prediction included demographics, diagnoses, procedures, medication orders, hospitalizations, and frailty measures extracted from clinical notes. Temporal variables were created based on the patient history data in the 2-year window prior to the index MCVP. A temporal image was created based on these variables for each individual patient. To generate the explanation for the DNN model, we defined a new concept called impact score, based on the presence/value of clinical conditions’ impact on the predicted outcome. Like (log) odds ratio reported by the logistic regression (LR) model, impact scores are continuous variables intended to shed light on the black box model. For comparison, a logistic regression model was fitted on the same dataset. In our cohort, about 6.8% of patients died within one year. The prediction of the DNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.5% while the LR model achieved an AUC of 74.6%. A strong but not perfect correlation was found between the aggregated impact scores and the log odds ratios (Spearman’s rho = 0.74), which helped validate our explanation.

Keywords: deep neural network, temporal data, prediction, frailty, logistic regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Marimuthu Gurusamy

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In vibration analysis (with accelerometers) of rotating machines with rolling element bearing, the customers are interested to know the failure of the machine well in advance to plan the spare inventory and maintenance. But in real world most of the machines fails before the prediction of vibration analyst or Expert analysis software. Presently the prediction of failure is based on ISO 10816 vibration limits only. But this is not enough to monitor the failure of machines well in advance. Because more than 50% of the machines will fail even the vibration readings are within acceptable zone as per ISO 10816.Hence it requires further detail analysis and different techniques to predict the failure well in advance. In vibration Analysis, the velocity spectrum is used to analyse the root cause of the mechanical problems like unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc. The envelope spectrum are used to analyse the bearing frequency components, hence the failure in inner race, outer race and rolling elements are identified. But so far there is no correlation made between these two concepts. The author used both velocity spectrum and Envelope spectrum to analyse the machine behaviour and bearing condition to correlated the changes in dynamic load (by unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc.) and effect of impact on the bearing. Hence we could able to predict the expected life of the machine and bearings in the rotating equipment (with rolling element bearings). Also we used process parameters like temperature, flow and pressure to correlate with flow induced vibration and load variations, when abnormal vibration occurs due to changes in process parameters. Hence by correlation of velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum and process data with 20 years of experience in vibration analysis, the author could able to predict the rotating Equipment and its component’s deterioration and expected duration for maintenance.

Keywords: vibration analysis, velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum, prediction of deterioration

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: Chinwe Pearl Poly-Mbah, Evelyn Obioma, Juliet Amajuoyi

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The investigation here reported examined growth and yield responses of Cucumber to manure rates in Owerri, Southeastern Nigeria. Fruit vegetables are widely cultivated and produced in Northern Nigeria but greatly consumed in Southern Nigeria where cucumbers command high demand and price but are minimally cultivated. Unfortunately, farmers in northern Nigeria incur lots of losses because cucumber is a perishable vegetable and is transported all the way from the northern Nigeria where cucumbers are produced to Southern Nigeria where cucumbers are consumed, hence the high cost of cucumber fruits in Southern Nigeria. There is a need, therefore, to evolve packages that will enhance cucumber production in Southern Nigeria. The main objective of this study was to examine the effects of poultry manure rates on the growth and yield of cucumber in Owerri, South Eastern Nigeria. Specifically, this study was designed to assess the effect of poultry manure rates on number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length/plant, leaf area per plant and the number of leaves produced per plant. The design used for the experiment was Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three blocks (replications). Treatment consisted of four rates of well-decomposed poultry manure at the rate of 0 tons/ha, 2 tons/ha, 4 tons/ha and 6 tons/ha. Data were collected on number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length per plant at two weeks interval, leaf number per plant at two weeks interval, leaf area per plant at two weeks interval, number of fruits produced per plant, and fresh weight of fruits per plant at harvest. Results from the analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that there were highly significant effects (P=0.05) of poultry manure on growth and yield parameters studied which include number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length per plant, leaf number per plant, leaf area per plant, fruit number and fruit weight per plant such that increase in poultry manure rates lead to increase in growth and yield parameters studied. Therefore, the null hypothesis (Ho) was rejected, while the alternative hypothesis was accepted. Farmers should be made to know that growing cucumber with poultry manure in southeastern Nigeria agro ecology is a successful enterprise

Keywords: cucumber, effects, growth and yield, manure

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Melodi Mbuyi Mata, Blessing Olamide Taiwo, Afolabi Ayodele David

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The purpose of this research is to create empirical models for assessing the profitability of granite aggregate production in Akure, Ondo state aggregate quarries. In addition, an artificial neural network (ANN) model and multivariate predicting models for granite profitability were developed in the study. A formal survey questionnaire was used to collect data for the study. The data extracted from the case study mine for this study includes granite marketing operations, royalty, production costs, and mine production information. The following methods were used to achieve the goal of this study: descriptive statistics, MATLAB 2017, and SPSS16.0 software in analyzing and modeling the data collected from granite traders in the study areas. The ANN and Multi Variant Regression models' prediction accuracy was compared using a coefficient of determination (R²), Root mean square error (RMSE), and mean square error (MSE). Due to the high prediction error, the model evaluation indices revealed that the ANN model was suitable for predicting generated profit in a typical quarry. More quarries in Nigeria's southwest region and other geopolitical zones should be considered to improve ANN prediction accuracy.

Keywords: national development, granite, profitability assessment, ANN models

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Lukas Kano Mangalla, Raden Rinova Sisworo, Luther Pagiling

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Torrefaction is an emerging thermo-chemical treatment process that aims to improve the quality of biomass fuels. This study focused on upgrading the waste teakwood through microwave torrefaction processes and investigating the key operating parameters to improve energy density for the quality of biochar production. The experiments were carried out in a 250 mL reactor placed in a microwave cavity on two different media, inert and non-inert. The microwave was operated at a frequency of 2.45GHz with power level variations of 540W, 720W, and 900W, respectively. During torrefaction processes, the nitrogen gas flows into the reactor at a rate of 0.125 mL/min, and the air flows naturally. The temperature inside the reactor was observed every 0.5 minutes for 20 minutes using a K-Type thermocouple. Changes in the mass and the properties of the torrefied products were analyzed to predict the correlation between calorific value, mass yield, and level power of the microwave. The results showed that with the increase in the operating power of microwave torrefaction, the calorific value and energy density of the product increased significantly, while mass and energy yield tended to decrease. Air can be a great potential media for substituting the expensive nitrogen to perform the microwave torrefaction for teakwood biomass.

Keywords: torrefaction, microwave heating, energy enhancement, mass and energy yield

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Authors: Victor Chinecherem Ejeke, Raphael Eze Nnam

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The main objective of this research is to produce biodiesel from waste vegetable oil using activated eggshell waste as solid catalysts. A transesterification reaction was performed for the conversion to biodiesel. Waste eggshells were calcined at 700°C, 800°C and 900°C for a time period of 3hrs for the preparation of the renewable catalyst. The calcined waste eggshell catalyst was characterized using X-Ray Florescence (XRF) Spectroscopy, which revealed CaO as the major constituent (90.86%); this was further confirmed by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) analyses. The prepared catalyst was used for transesterification reaction and the effects of calcination temperature (700 to 900°C), Deep Eutectic Solvent DES loading (3 to 18 wt. %), Waste Egg Shell (WES) catalyst loading (6 to 14 wt. %) on the conversion to biodiesel were studied. The yield of biodiesel using a waste eggshell catalyst (91%) is comparable to conventional catalyst like sodium hydroxide with a yield of 80-90%. The maximum biodiesel production yield was obtained at a specific oil-to methanol molar ratio of 1:10, a temperature of 65°C and a catalyst loading of 14g-wt%. The biodiesel produced was characterized as being composed of methyl Tetradecanoate (C₁₄H₂₈O₂) 30.92% using the Gas Chromatographic (GC-MS) analysis. The fuel properties of the biodiesel (Flashpoint 138ᵒC) were comparable to commercial diesel, and hence it can be used in compression-ignition engines. The results indicated that the catalysts derived from waste eggshell had high potential to be used as biodiesel production catalysts in transesterification of waste vegetable oil with the advantage of reusability and also not requiring water washing steps.

Keywords: waste vegetable oil, catalyst , biodiesel , waste egg shell

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Authors: Elda Maraj, Shkelqim Kuka

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Coronary heart disease causes many deaths in the world. Unfortunately, this problem will continue to increase in the future. In this paper, a fuzzy logic model to predict coronary heart disease is presented. This model has been developed with seven input variables and one output variable that was implemented for 30 patients in Albania. Here fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB is used. Fuzzy model inputs are considered as cholesterol, blood pressure, physical activity, age, BMI, smoking, and diabetes, whereas the output is the disease classification. The fuzzy sets and membership functions are chosen in an appropriate manner. Centroid method is used for defuzzification. The database is taken from University Hospital Center "Mother Teresa" in Tirana, Albania.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, fuzzy logic toolbox, membership function, prediction model

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Authors: Abdullah Al Faruque, Ram Balachandar

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Series of laboratory tests were carried out to study the extent of scour caused by a three-dimensional wall jets exiting from a square cross-section nozzle and into a non-cohesive sand beds. Previous observations have indicated that the effect of the tailwater depth was significant for densimetric Froude number greater than ten. However, the present results indicate that the cut off value could be lower depending on the value of grain size-to-nozzle width ratio. Numbers of equations are drawn out for a better scaling of numerous scour parameters. Also suggested the empirical prediction of scour to predict the scour centre line profile and plan view of scour profile at any particular time.

Keywords: densimetric froude number, jets, nozzle, sand, scour, tailwater, time

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Authors: Hicham Elomari, Absa Fall, Taoufiq Elkrochni

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This present work mainly concerns the improvement of citrus water productivity in the Souss Massa region. The objective is to evaluate the effect of deficit irrigation applied during the fruit growth stage on fruit size, quality and yield of the Orogrande variety grafted on Citrus macrophylla and Citrus volkameriana. Three irrigation regimes were adopted, a control D0 of 3.6 l/h and two doses D1 (58% D0 =2.1 l/h) and D2 (236% D0 =8.5 l/h). The experimental design was a randomized complete block while keeping the same spacing between drippers, the same duration of irrigation and the beginning of trials (fruit growth stage). Results showed that at the end of the cycle from October 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021, a total water supply of 732 mm and 785 mm using the D1 dose was provided to trees of Orogrande variety, respectively grafted on Citrus macrophylla and Citrus volkameriana rootstocks. Citrus macrophylla presented largest fruit size of 38 mm compared to Citrus volkameriana (33mm) with a significant difference. Total soluble sugar (8°Brix) and juice content level (40%) were higher with the application of the D1 dose on both rootstocks. Yield of 36 Tons was not affected by the deficit irrigation. Reduction of water supply by 18% increases agronomic productivity (6 MAD/m³) and economic productivity (3 MAD/m³).

Keywords: citrus, irrigation, fruit size, fruit quality, yield

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Authors: Rudi P. Nielsen, Karina H. Hansen, Morten E. Simonsen

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To improve the possibility of the chemical recycling of mixed plastic waste, such as municipal plastic waste, work has been conducted to gain an understanding of the effect of typical polymers from waste (PP, PET, and PA) on the quality of the pyrolysis oil produced. Plastic fractions were pyrolyzed in a lab-scale reactor system, with mixture compositions of up to 15 wt.% PET and five wt.% PA in a PP matrix and processing conditions from 400 to 450°C. The experiments were conducted as a full factorial design and in duplicates to provide reliable results and the possibility to determine any interactions between the parameters. The products were analyzed using FT-IR and GC-MS for compositional information as well as the determination of calorific value, ash content, acid number, density, viscosity, and elemental analysis to provide further data on the fuel quality of the pyrolysis oil. Oil yield was found to be between 61 and 84 wt.%, while char yield was below 2.6 wt.% in all cases. The calorific value of the produced oil was between 32 and 46 MJ/kg, averaging at approx. 41 MJ/kg, thus close to that of heavy fuel oil. The oil product was characterized to contain aliphatic and cyclic hydrocarbons, alcohols, and ethers with chain lengths between 10 and 25 carbon atoms. Overall, it was found that the addition of PET decreased oil yield, while the addition of both PA and PET decreased oil quality in general by increasing acid number (PET), decreasing calorific value (PA), and increasing nitrogen content (PA). Furthermore, it was identified that temperature increased ammonia production from PA during pyrolysis, while ammonia production was decreased by the addition of PET.

Keywords: PET, plastic waste, polyamide, polypropylene, pyrolysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Adu Micheal Kwaku, Lamptey Shirley

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Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walpis) is a major food grain legume in Ghana and plays a significant role in consumer diets. Drought in rain-fed crop production is known to cause substantial crop yield reduction due to their negative impacts on plant growth, physiology, and reproduction. There are various ways of reducing the effect of drought or addressing the problem of drought stress, including irrigation, breeding, and mulching. Among these three ways of reducing the effect of drought stress, the cheapest and quickest method is mulching. The broad objective of this project is to determine the influence of mulching on the performance of cowpea. The experiment was conducted at Planting for future garden located at Nyankpala Campus of the University for Development Studies (UDS), comprising five treatments (black plastic, rice hull, groundnut hull, dry grass mulch, and control). The treatments were evaluated in a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three replications. The result shows that black plastic mulch increased soil moisture by 1, 8, 15, and 24% compared to rice hull, groundnut hull, dry grass, and control, respectively. Increased soil moisture translated into black plastic mulch increasing grain yield by 8, 25, 39, and 46% compared to groundnut hull, rice hull, dry grass and control, respectively. However, black plastic mulch increased the cost of production, resulting in decreased net returns compared to the other treatment. This study recommends the use of rice and groundnut hull as mulching material to improve soil moisture, grain yield, and profit of smallholder cowpea farmers and also because they are almost free and available.

Keywords: mulch, plastic mulch, cowpea, growth response

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Natalia Hordynska, Magdalena Szechynska-Hebda, Miroslaw Sobczak, Elzbieta Rozanska, Joanna Troczynska, Zofia Banaszak, Maria Wedzony

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Albinism is a common problem encountered in wheat and triticale breeding programs, which require in vitro culture steps e.g. generation of doubled haploids via androgenesis process. Genetic factor is a major determinant of albinism, however, environmental conditions such as temperature and media composition influence the frequency of albino plant formation. Cold incubation of wheat and triticale spikes induced a switch from gametophytic to sporophytic development. Further, androgenic structures formed from anthers of the genotypes susceptible to androgenesis or treated with cold stress, had a pool of structurally primitive plastids, with small starch granules or swollen thylakoids. High temperature was a factor inducing andro-genesis of wheat and triticale, but at the same time, it was a factor favoring the formation of albino plants. In genotypes susceptible to albinism or after heat stress conditions, cells formed from anthers were vacuolated, and plastids were eliminated. Partial or complete loss of chlorophyll pigments and incomplete differentiation of chloroplast membranes result in formation of tissues or whole plant unable to perform photosynthesis. Indeed, susceptibility to the andro-genesis process was associated with an increase of total concentration of photosynthetic pigments in anthers, spikes and regenerated plants. The proper balance of the synthesis of various pigments, was the starting point for their proper incorporation into photosynthetic membranes. In contrast, genotypes resistant to the androgenesis process and those treated with heat, contained 100 times lower content of photosynthetic pigments. In particular, the synthesis of violaxanthin, zeaxanthin, lutein and chlorophyll b was limited. Furthermore, deregulation of starch and lipids synthesis, which led to the formation of very complex starch granules and an increased number of oleosomes, respectively, correlated with the reduction of the efficiency of androgenesis. The content of other sugars varied depending on the genotype and the type of stress. The highest content of various sugars was found for genotypes susceptible to andro-genesis, and highly reduced for genotypes resistant to androgenesis. The most important sugars seem to be glucose and fructose. They are involved in sugar sensing and signaling pathways, which affect the expression of various genes and regulate plant development. Sucrose, on the other hand, seems to have minor effect at each stage of the androgenesis. The sugar metabolism was related to metabolic activity of microspores. The genotypes susceptible to androgenesis process had much faster mitochondrium- and chloroplast-dependent energy conversion and higher heat production by tissues. Thus, the effectiveness of metabolic processes, their balance and the flexibility under the stress was a factor determining the direction of microspore development, and in the later stages of the androgenesis process, a factor supporting the induction of androgenic structures, chloroplast formation and the regeneration of green plants. The work was financed by Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development within Program: ‘Biological Progress in Plant Production’, project no HOR.hn.802.15.2018.

Keywords: androgenesis, chloroplast, metabolism, temperature stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Danute Karcauskiene, Dalia Ambrazaitiene, Regina Skuodiene, Monika Vilkiene, Regina Repsiene, Ieva Jokubauskaite

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The main ambition for nowadays agriculture is to get the economically effective yield and to secure the soil ecological sustainability. According to the effect on the main soil quality indexes, tillage systems may be separated into two types, conventional and conservation tillage. The goal of this study was to determine the impact of conservation and conventional primary soil tillage methods and soil fertility improvement measures on soil properties and crop productivity. Methods: The soil of the experimental site is Dystric Glossic Retisol (WRB 2014) with texture of sandy loam. The trial was established in 2003 in the experimental field of crop rotation of Vėžaičiai Branch of Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry. Trial factors and treatments: factor A- primary soil tillage in (autumn): deep ploughing (20-25cm), shallow ploughing (10-12cm), shallow ploughless tillage (8-10cm); factor B – soil fertility improvement measures: plant residues, plant residues + straw, green manure 1st cut + straw, farmyard manure 40tha-1 + straw. The four - course crop rotation consisted of red clover, winter wheat, spring rape and spring barley with undersown. Results: The tillage had no statistically significant effect on topsoil (0-10 cm) pHKCl level, it was 5.5 - 5.7. During all experiment period, the highest soil pHKCl level (5.65) was in the shallow ploughless tillage. The organic fertilizers particularly the biomass of grass and farmyard manure had tendency to increase the soil pHKCl. The content of plant - available phosphorus and potassium significantly increase in the shallow ploughing compared with others tillage systems. The farmyard manure increases those elements in whole arable layer. The dissolved organic carbon concentration was significantly higher in the 0 - 10 cm soil layer in the shallow ploughless tillage compared with deep ploughing. After the incorporation of clover biomass and farmyard manure the concentration of dissolved organic carbon increased in the top soil layer. During all experiment period the largest amount of water stable aggregates was determined in the soil where the shallow ploughless tillage was applied. It was by 12% higher compared with deep ploughing. During all experiment time, the soil moisture was higher in the shallow ploughing and shallow ploughless tillage (9-27%) compared to deep ploughing. The lowest emission of CO2 was determined in the deep ploughing soil. The highest rate of CO2 emission was in shallow ploughless tillage. The addition of organic fertilisers had a tendency to increase the CO2 emission, but there was no statistically significant effect between the different types of organic fertilisers. The crop yield was larger in the deep ploughing soil compared to the shallow and shallow ploughless tillage.

Keywords: reduced tillage, soil structure, soil pH, biological activity, crop productivity

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Authors: Liang Zhao, Jili Zhang, Chongquan Zhong

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Energy consumption data, in particular those involving public buildings, are impacted by many factors: the building structure, climate/environmental parameters, construction, system operating condition, and user behavior patterns. Traditional methods for data analysis are insufficient. This paper delves into the data mining technology to determine its application in the analysis of building energy consumption data including energy consumption prediction, fault diagnosis, and optimal operation. Recent literature are reviewed and summarized, the problems faced by data mining technology in the area of energy consumption data analysis are enumerated, and research points for future studies are given.

Keywords: data mining, data analysis, prediction, optimization, building operational performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 851

Authors: Ebenezer Amoquandoh, Daniel Bruce Sarpong, Godfred K. Ofosu-Budu, Andreas Fliessbach

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Soil quality is at stake globally, but under tropical conditions, the loss of soil fertility may be existential. The current rates of soil nutrient depletion, erosion and environmental degradation in most of Africa’s farmland urgently require methods for soil fertility restoration through affordable agricultural management techniques. The study assessed the effects of locally available organic resources to improve soil fertility, crop yield and profitability compared to business as usual on farms in the Eastern and Greater Accra regions of Ghana. Apart from this, we analyzed the change of farmers’ perceptions and knowledge upon the experience with the new techniques; the effect of using locally available organic resource on farmers’ yield and determined the factors influencing the profitability of farming. Using the Difference in Mean Score and Proportion to estimate the extent to which farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and practices have changed, the study showed that farmers’ perception, knowledge and practice on the use of locally available organic resources have changed significantly. This paves way for the sustainable use of locally available organic resource for soil fertility improvement. The Propensity Score Matching technique and Endogenous Switching Regression model used showed that using locally available organic resources have the potential to increase crop yield. It was also observed that using the Profit Margin, Net Farm Income and Return on Investment analysis, it is more profitable to use locally available organic resources than other soil fertility amendments techniques studied. The results further showed that socioeconomic, farm characteristics and institutional factors are significant in influencing farmers’ decision to use locally available organic resources and profitability.

Keywords: soil fertility, locally available organic resources, perception, profitability, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Nurhayati Br Tarigan, Rizkita Rachmi Esyanti

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Stevia (Stevia rebaudiana Bertoni) has a great potential to be used as a natural sweetener because it contains steviol glycoside, which is approximately 100 - 300 times sweeter than sucrose, yet low calories. Vegetative and generative propagation of S. rebaudiana is inefficient to produce stevia biomass and stevioside. One of alternative for stevia propagation is in vitro shoot culture. This research was conducted to optimize the best medium for shoot growth and to compare the bioconversion efficiency and stevioside production of S. rebaudiana shoot culture cultivated in thin layer culture (TLC), recipient for automated temporary immersion system (TIS RITA®) bioreactor, and bubble column bioreactor. The result showed that 1 ppm of Kinetin produced a healthy shoot and the highest number of leaves compared to BAP. Shoots were then cultivated in TLC, TIS RITA® bioreactor, and bubble column bioreactor. Growth medium efficiency was determined by yield and productivity. TLC produced the highest growth medium efficiency of S. rebaudiana, the yield was 0.471 ± 0.117 gbiomass.gsubstrate-1, and the productivity was 0.599 ± 0.122 gbiomass.Lmedium-1.day-1. While TIS RITA® bioreactor produced the lowest yield and productivity, 0.182 ± 0.024 gbiomass.gsubstrate-1 and 0.041 ± 0.0002 gbiomass.Lmedium-1.day-1 respectively. The yield of bubble column bioreactor was 0.354 ± 0.204 gbiomass.gsubstrate-1 and the productivity was 0,099 ± 0,009 gbiomass.Lmedium-1.day-1. The stevioside content from the highest to the lowest was obtained from stevia shoot which was cultivated on TLC, TIS RITA® bioreactor, and bubble column bioreactor; the content was 93,44 μg/g, 42,57 μg/g, and 23,03 μg/g respectively. All three systems could be used to produce stevia shoot biomass, but optimization on the number of nutrition and oxygen intake was required in each system.

Keywords: bubble column, growth medium efficiency, Stevia rebaudiana, stevioside, TIS RITA®, TLC

Procedia PDF Downloads 266

Authors: Omar M. Elmabrouk., Roaa Y. Taha., Najat M. Ebrahim, Sabbreen A. Mohammed

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Power transformers are the most crucial part of power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. This part is maintained using predictive or condition-based maintenance approach. The diagnosis of power transformer condition is performed based on Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA). There are five main methods utilized for analyzing these gases. These methods are International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) gas ratio, Key Gas, Roger gas ratio, Doernenburg, and Duval Triangle. Moreover, due to the importance of the transformers, there is a need for an accurate technique to diagnose and hence predict the transformer condition. The main objective of this technique is to avoid the transformer faults and hence to maintain the power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. In this paper, the DGA was utilized based on the data collected from the transformer records available in the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) which is located in Benghazi-Libya. The Fuzzy Logic (FL) technique was implemented as a diagnostic approach based on IEC gas ratio method. The FL technique gave better results and approved to be used as an accurate prediction technique for power transformer faults. Also, this technique is approved to be a quite interesting for the readers and the concern researchers in the area of FL mathematics and power transformer.

Keywords: dissolved gas-in-oil analysis, fuzzy logic, power transformer, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Prozorkevitch D., Mishurov A., Sokolov K., Karsakov L., Pestrikova L.

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The current body of knowledge about the marine environment and the dynamics of marine ecosystems includes a huge amount of heterogeneous data collected over decades. It generally includes a wide range of hydrological, biological and fishery data. Marine researchers collect these data and analyze how and why the ecosystem changes from past to present. Based on these historical records and linkages between the processes it is possible to predict future changes. Multivariate analysis of trends and their interconnection in the marine ecosystem may be used as an instrument for predicting further ecosystem evolution. A wide range of information about the components of the marine ecosystem for more than 50 years needs to be used to investigate how these arrays can help to predict the future.

Keywords: barents sea ecosystem, abiotic, biotic, data sets, trends, prediction

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Authors: Yasir E. Mohieldeen

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Qatar is one of the most water scarce countries in the World. In 2014, the average per capita rainfall was less than 29 m3/y/ca, while the global average is 6,000 m3/y/ca. However, the per capita water consumption in Qatar is among the highest in the World: more than 500 liters per person per day, whereas the global average is 160 liters per person per day. Since the early 2000s, Qatar has been relying heavily on desalinated water from the Arabian Gulf as the main source of fresh water. In 2009, about 99.9% of the total potable water produced was desalinated. Reliance on desalinated water makes Qatar very vulnerable to water related natural disasters, such as the red-tide phenomenon. Qatar’s strategic water reserve lasts for only 7 days. In case of red-tide outbreak, the country would not be able to desalinate water for days, let alone the months that this disaster would bring about (as it clogs the desalination equipment). The 2008-09 red-tide outbreak, for instance, lasted for more than eight months and forced the closure of desalination plants in the region for weeks. This study aims at identifying favorite conditions for red-tide outbreaks, using satellite data along with in-situ measurements. This identification would allow the prediction of these outbreaks and their hotspots. Prediction and monitoring of outbreaks are crucial to water security in the country, as different measures could be put in place in advance to prevent an outbreak and mitigate its impact if it happened. Red-tide outbreaks are detected using different algorithms for chlorophyll concentration in the Gulf waters. Vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were used along with Surface Algae Bloom Index (SABI) to detect known outbreaks. MODIS (or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) bands are used to calculate these indices. A red-tide outbreaks atlas in the Arabian Gulf is being produced. Prediction of red-tide outbreaks ahead of their occurrences would give critical information on possible water-shortage in the country. Detecting known outbreaks in the past few decades and related parameters (e.g. water salinity, water surface temperature, nutrition, sandstorms, … etc) enables the identification of favorite conditions of red-tide outbreak that are key to the prediction of these outbreaks.

Keywords: Arabian Gulf, MODIS, red-tide detection, strategic water reserve, water desalination

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: S. Moumen, M. Melizi

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In order to characterize rabbits does of an Aures local population raised in Algeria; a study of their milk yield was realized in the experimental rabbitry of El Hadj Lakhdhar University. Milk production of does was measured every day during the days following 215 parturitions. It was estimated by weighing the female before and after the single daily suckling (10-15 min between the 2 weighing operations). The various calculated parameters were the quantity of milk produced per day, per week and the total quantity produced in 21 days, as well as the intake of milk by young rabbits. The analysis concerned the effects of the number of successive litters (3 classes: 1 to 3 and more) and of the average number of the number of young rabbits suckled per litter (6 classes: from 1-2 kits to more than 6). During the 21 days of controlled lactation, the average litter size was 6±3. The rabbits of the Aures area produced on average 2544.34±747 g in 21 days that is 121 g of milk/day or 21g of milk/kit/day. The milk yield increased from 526, 1035, 1240, and 2801g to 760, 1365, 1715 and 3840 for week 1, 2, 3 and the total period of lactation respectively. Nevertheless, milk production available per kit and per day decreased linearly with kits number in the litter for each of the 3 weeks considered. On the other hand the milk yield was not affected by the weight at birth of kits.

Keywords: milk production, litter size, rabbit, Aures area, Algeria

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Authors: Idowu Olugbenga Adewumi, Foluke Iyabo Oluwatoyinbo

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Presently, there are several discussions on the food security with increase in yield of arable crop throughout the world. This article, briefly present research efforts to create digital interfaces to nature, in particular to area of crop production in agriculture with increase in yield with interest on pervasive computing. The approach goes beyond the use of sensor networks for environmental monitoring but also by emphasizing the development of a system architecture that detect intruder (Intrusion Process) which reduce the yield of the farmer at the end of the planting/harvesting period. The objective of the work is to set a model for setting up the hand held or portable device for increasing the quality and quantity of arable crop. This process incorporates the use of infrared motion image sensor with security alarm system which can send a noise signal to intruder on the farm. This model of the portable image sensing device in monitoring or scaring human, rodent, birds and even pests activities will reduce post harvest loss which will increase the yield on farm. The nano intelligence technology was proposed to combat and minimize intrusion process that usually leads to low quality and quantity of produce from farm. Intranet system will be in place with wireless radio (WLAN), router, server, and client computer system or hand held device e.g PDAs or mobile phone. This approach enables the development of hybrid systems which will be effective as a security measure on farm. Since, precision agriculture has developed with the computerization of agricultural production systems and the networking of computerized control systems. In the intelligent plant production system of controlled greenhouses, information on plant responses, measured by sensors, is used to optimize the system. Further work must be carry out on modeling using pervasive computing environment to solve problems of agriculture, as the use of electronics in agriculture will attracts more youth involvement in the industry.

Keywords: pervasive computing, intrusion detection, precision agriculture, security, arable crop

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Authors: Dariush Jafari, S. Mostafa Nowee

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In this study a ternary system containing sodium chloride as solute, water as primary solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent was considered to investigate the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in prediction of sodium solubility in the mixture of water as the solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent. The system was previously studied using by Extended UNIQUAC model by the authors of this study. The comparison between the results of the two models shows an excellent agreement between them (R2=0.99), and also approves the capability of ANN to predict the thermodynamic behavior of ternary electrolyte systems which are difficult to model.

Keywords: thermodynamic modeling, ANN, solubility, ternary electrolyte system

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Authors: Tursunay Vassilina, Aigerim Shibikeyeva, Adilet Sakhbek

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Research has been carried out to study the influence of modified zeolite fertilizers on the quantitative and qualitative indicators of cabbage variety Nezhenka. The use of zeolite and mineral fertilizers had a positive effect on both the yield and quality indicators of the studied crop. The maximum increase in yield from fertilizers was 16.5 t/ha. Application of both zeolite and fertilizer increased the dry matter, sugar and vitamin C content of cabbage heads. It was established that the cabbage contains an amount of nitrates that is safe for human health. Among vegetable crops, cabbage has both food and feed value. One of the limiting factors in the sale of vegetable crops is the degradation of soil fertility due to depletion of nutrient reserves and erosion processes, and non-compliance with fertilizer application technologies. Natural zeolites are used as additives to mineral fertilizers for application in the field, which makes it possible to reduce their doses to minimal quantities. Zeolites improve the agrophysical and agrochemical properties of the soil and the quality of plant products. The research was carried out in a field experiment, carried out in 3 repetitions, on dark chestnut soil in 2023. The soil (pH = 7.2-7.3) of the experimental plot is dark chestnut, the humus content in the arable layer is 2.15%, gross nitrogen 0.098%, phosphorus, potassium 0.225 and 2.4%, respectively. The object of the study was the late cabbage variety Nezhenka. Scheme for applying fertilizers to cabbage: 1. Control (without fertilizers); 2. Zeolite 2t/ha; 3. N45P45K45; 4. N90P90K90; 5. Zeolite, 2 t/ha + N45P45K45; 6. Zeolite, 2 t/ha + N90P90K90. Yield accounting was carried out on a plot-by-plot basis manually. In plant samples, the following was determined: dry matter content by thermostatic method (at 105ºC); sugar content by Bertrand titration method, nitrate content by 1% diphenylamine solution, vitamin C by titrimetric method with acid solution. According to the results, it was established that the yield of cabbage was high – 42.2 t/ha in the treatment Zeolite, 2 t/ha + N90P90K90. When determining the biochemical composition of white cabbage, it was found that the dry matter content was 9.5% and increased with fertilized treatments. The total sugar content increased slightly with the use of zeolite (5.1%) and modified zeolite fertilizer (5.5%), the vitamin C content ranged from 17.5 to 18.16%, while in the control, it was 17.21%. The amount of nitrates in products also increased with increasing doses of nitrogen fertilizers and decreased with the use of zeolite and modified zeolite fertilizer but did not exceed the maximum permissible concentration. Based on the research conducted, it can be concluded that the application of zeolite and fertilizers leads to a significant increase in yield compared to the unfertilized treatment; contribute to the production of cabbage with good and high quality indicators.

Keywords: cabbage, dry matter, nitrates, total sugar, yield, vitamin C

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Authors: Yujiang Wu

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As electrical machine (e-machine) power density re-querulents become more stringent in vehicle electrification, mounting a temperature sensor for e-machine stator windings becomes increasingly difficult. This can lead to higher manufacturing costs, complicated harnesses, and reduced reliability. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method for predicting electric machine winding temperature, which can either replace the sensor entirely or serve as a backup to the existing sensor. We compare the performance of our method, the stateful long short-term memory networks (LSTM) with truncated backpropagation through time (TBTT), with that of linear regression, as well as stateless LSTM with/without residual connection. Our results demonstrate the strength of combining stateful LSTM and TBTT in tackling nonlinear time series prediction problems with long sequence lengths. Additionally, in industrial applications, high-temperature region prediction accuracy is more important because winding temperature sensing is typically used for derating machine power when the temperature is high. To evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we developed a temperature-stratified MSE. We propose a simple but effective data preprocessing trick to improve the high-temperature region prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately predicting winding temperature, particularly in high-temperature regions, while also reducing manufacturing costs and improving reliability.

Keywords: deep learning, electrical machine, functional safety, long short-term memory networks (LSTM), thermal management, time series prediction

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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Authors: Harun Çoban, Aydın Akın

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In this study, the effects of different dose zinc application from soil and foliar on drying yield and some quality characters of raisins ‘Sultana’ were investigated. The experiment was conducted in randomized blocks with four replications, zinc treatment was used at one time (before pre- bloom) and from foliar in three times (pre-bloom, fruit set, and veraison). At harvest, both soil and foliar zinc sulphate applications increased the amount of fresh grapes per vine. Fresh grapes were dried on the drying place. However, the most efficient applications for drying yield and quality of raisins were observed from foliar. Therefore, it was preferred that foliar application dosage level at 0.10 %.

Keywords: zinc, raisins, soil application, foliar application, sultana, expertise value

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Authors: A. H. Nanher, N. P. Singh

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In India, Agriculture is largely in rice- based cropping system. It has indicated decline in factor productivity along with emergence of multi - nutrient deficiency, buildup of soil pathogen and weed flora because it operates and removes nutrients from the same rooting depth. In designing alternative cropping systems, the common approaches are crop intensification, crop diversification and cultivar options. The intensification leads to the diversification of the cropping system. Intensification is achieved by introducing an additional component crop in a pre-dominant sequential system by desirable adjustments in cultivars of one or all the component crops. Invariably, this results in higher land use efficiency and productivity per unit time Crop Diversification through such crop and inclusion of fodder crops help to improve the economic situation of small and marginal farmers because of higher income. Inclusion of crops in sequential and intercropping systems reduces some obnoxious weeds through formation of canopies due to competitive planting pattern and thus provides an opportunity to utilize cropping systems as a tool of weed management with non-chemical means. Use of organic source not only acts as supplement for fertilizer (nitrogen) but also improve the physico-chemical properties of soils. Production and use of nitrogen rich biomass offer better prospect for supplementing chemical fertilizers on regular basis. Such biological diversity brings yield and economic stability because of its potential for compensation among components of the system. In a particular agro-climatic and resource condition, the identification of most suitable crop sequence is based on its productivity, stability, land use efficiency as well as production efficiency and its performance is chiefly judged in terms of productivity and net return.

Keywords: integrated farming systems, sustainable intensification, system of crop intensification, wheat

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Authors: Misheck Musokwa, Paramu Mafongoya, Simon Lorentz

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Seasonal shortages of fodder during the dry season is a major constraint to smallholder livestock farmers in South Africa. To mitigate the shortage of fodder, legume trees can be intercropped with pastures which can diversify the sources of feed and increase the amount of protein for grazing animals. The objective was to evaluate dry matter yield of Panicum maximum and land productivity under different fodder production systems during 2016/17-2017/18 seasons at Empangeni (28.6391° S and 31.9400° E). A randomized complete block design, replicated three times was used, the treatments were sole Panicum maximum, Panicum maximum + Sesbania sesban, Panicum maximum + pigeonpea, sole Sesbania sesban, Sole pigeonpea. Three months S.sesbania seedlings were transplanted whilst pigeonpea was direct seeded at spacing of 1m x 1m. P. maximum seeds were drilled at a respective rate of 7.5 kg/ha having an inter-row spacing of 0.25 m apart. In between rows of trees P. maximum seeds were drilled. The dry matter yield harvesting times were separated by six months’ timeframe. A 0.25 m² quadrant randomly placed on 3 points on the plot was used as sampling area during harvesting P. maximum. There was significant difference P < 0.05 across 3 harvests and total dry matter. P. maximum had higher dry matter yield as compared to both intercrops at first harvest and total. The second and third harvest had no significant difference with pigeonpea intercrop. The results was in this order for all 3 harvest: P. maximum (541.2c, 1209.3b and 1557b) kg ha¹ ≥ P. maximum + pigeonpea (157.2b, 926.7b and 1129b) kg ha¹ > P. maximum + S. sesban (36.3a, 282a and 555a) kg ha¹. Total accumulation of dry matter yield of P. maximum (3307c kg ha¹) > P. maximum + pigeonpea (2212 kg ha¹) ≥ P. maximum + S. sesban (874 kg ha¹). There was a significant difference (P< 0.05) on seed yield for trees. Pigeonpea (1240.3 kg ha¹) ≥ Pigeonpea + P. maximum (862.7 kg ha¹) > S.sesbania (391.9 kg ha¹) ≥ S.sesbania + P. maximum. The Land Equivalent Ratio (LER) was in the following order P. maximum + pigeonpea (1.37) > P. maximum + S. sesban (0.84) > Pigeonpea (0.59) ≥ S. Sesbania (0.57) > P. maximum (0.26). Results indicates that it is beneficial to have P. maximum intercropped with pigeonpea because of higher land productivity. Planting grass with pigeonpea was more beneficial than S. sesban with grass or sole cropping in terms of saving the shortage of arable land. P. maximum + pigeonpea saves a substantial (37%) land which can be subsequently be used for other crop production. Pigeonpea is recommended as an intercrop with P. maximum due to its higher LER and combined production of livestock feed, human food, and firewood. Panicum grass is low in crude protein though high in carbohydrates, there is a need for intercropping it with legume trees. A farmer who buys concentrates can reduce costs by combining P. maximum with pigeonpea this will provide a balanced diet at low cost.

Keywords: fodder, livestock, productivity, smallholder farmers

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Authors: V. S. Manivasagam, R. Nagarajan

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Modeling the soil, water and crop growth interactions are attaining major importance, considering the future climate change and water availability for agriculture to meet the growing food demand. Progress in understanding the crop growth response during water stress period through crop modeling approach provides an opportunity for improving and sustaining the future agriculture water use efficiency. An attempt has been made to evaluate the potential use of crop modeling approach for assessing the minimal supplementary irrigation requirement for crop growth during water limited condition and its practical significance in sustainable improvement of crop yield and water productivity. Among the numerous crop models, water driven-AquaCrop model has been chosen for the present study considering the modeling approach and water stress impact on yield simulation. The study has been evaluated in rainfed maize grown area of semi-arid Shanmuganadi watershed (a tributary of the Cauvery river system) located in southern India during the rabi cropping season (October-February). In addition to actual rainfed maize growth simulation, irrigated maize scenarios were simulated for assessing the supplementary irrigation requirement during water shortage condition for the period 2012-2015. The simulation results for rainfed maize have shown that the average maize yield of 0.5-2 t ha-1 was observed during deficit monsoon season (<350 mm) whereas 5.3 t ha-1 was noticed during sufficient monsoonal period (>350 mm). Scenario results for irrigated maize simulation during deficit monsoonal period has revealed that 150-200 mm of supplementary irrigation has ensured the 5.8 t ha-1 of irrigated maize yield. Thus, study results clearly portrayed that minimal application of supplementary irrigation during the critical growth period along with the deficit rainfall has increased the crop water productivity from 1.07 to 2.59 kg m-3 for major soil types. Overall, AquaCrop is found to be very effective for the sustainable irrigation assessment considering the model simplicity and minimal inputs requirement.

Keywords: AquaCrop, crop modeling, rainfed maize, water stress

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Authors: Jong Won, Park, Sung Hyun, Kim

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The kinetic energy to pass subjected to shock and chisel reciprocating piston hydraulic power supplied by the excavator using for the purpose of crushing the rock, and roads, buildings, etc., hydraulic breakers blow. Impact frequency, efficiency measurement of the impact energy, hydraulic breakers, to demonstrate the ability of hydraulic breaker manufacturers and users to a very important item. And difficult in order to confirm the initial performance degradation in the life of the hydraulic breaker has been thought to be a problem.In this study, we measure the efficiency of hydraulic breaker, Impact energy and Impact frequency, the degradation analysis of research to predict the life.

Keywords: impact energy, impact frequency, hydraulic breaker, life prediction

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