Search results for: daily rainfall

Authors: A. Benatiallah, D. Benatiallah, F. Abaidi, B. Nasri, A. Harrouz, S. Mansouri

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The region of Adrar is located in the south-western Algeria and covers a total area of 443.782 km², occupied by a population of 432,193 inhabitants. The main activity of population is agriculture, mainly based on the date palm cultivation occupies a total area of 23,532 ha. Adrar region climate is a continental desert characterized by a high variation in temperature between months (July, August) it exceeds 48°C and coldest months (December, January) with 16°C. Rainfall is very limited in frequency and volume with an aridity index of 4.6 to 5 which corresponds to a type of arid climate. Geologically Adrar region is located on the edge North West and is characterized by a Precambrian basement cover stolen sedimentary deposit of Phanerozoic age transgressive. The depression is filled by Touat site Paleozoic deposits (Cambrian to Namurian) of a vast sedimentary basin extending secondary age of the Saharan Atlas to the north hamada Tinhirt Tademaït and the plateau of south and Touat Gourara west to Gulf of Gabes in the Northeast. In this work we have study geothermal potential of Adrar region from the borehole data eatable in various sites across the area of 400,000 square kilometres; from these data we developed a GIS (Adrar_GIS) that plots data on the various points and boreholes in the region specifying information on available geothermal potential has variable depths.

Keywords: sig, geothermal, potenteil, temperature

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Authors: Girish Chavadappanavar

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The impact of climate on agriculture could result in problems with food security and may threaten the livelihood activities upon which much of the population depends. In the present study, the development of a statistical yield forecast model has been carried out for sugarcane production over Belagavi district, Karnataka using weather variables of crop growing season and past observed yield data for the period of 1971 to 2010. The study shows that this type of statistical yield forecast model could efficiently forecast yield 5 weeks and even 10 weeks in advance of the harvest for sugarcane within an acceptable limit of error. The performance of the model in predicting yields at the district level for sugarcane crops is found quite satisfactory for both validation (2007 and 2008) as well as forecasting (2009 and 2010).In addition to the above study, the climate variability of the area has also been studied, and hence, the data series was tested for Mann Kendall Rank Statistical Test. The maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be significant with opposite trends (decreasing trend in maximum and increasing in minimum temperature), while the other three are found in significant with different trends (rainfall and evening time relative humidity with increasing trend and morning time relative humidity with decreasing trend).

Keywords: climate impact, regression analysis, yield and forecast model, sugar models

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Authors: Edilene Machado, Carolina Karoly, Amanda Britz, Luciane Salvi, Claudineia Brazil

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Climate teleconnections refer to the climatic relationships between geographically distant regions, where changes in one location can influence weather patterns in another. These connections can occur through atmospheric and oceanic processes, leading to variations in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic elements. Studying teleconnections is crucial for better understanding the mechanisms that govern global climate and the potential consequences of climate change. A notable example of a teleconnection is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which involves the interaction between the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. During El Niño episodes, there is anomalous warming of the surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific, resulting in significant changes in global climate patterns. These changes can affect rainfall distribution, wind patterns, and temperatures in different parts of the world. The cold phase of ENSO, known as La Niña, is often associated with reduced precipitation and below-average temperatures in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Therefore, the objective of this research is to identify patterns between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in their different phases and dengue transmission. Meteorological data and dengue case records for the city of Porto Alegre, in the southern region of Brazil, were used for the development of this research. The study highlighted that the highest incidence of dengue cases occurred during the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Keywords: climate patterns, climate teleconnections, climate variability, dengue, El Niño-Southern oscillation

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Authors: Mario Zgela

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Application of Benford’s Law is very rarely covered in the field of stock market analysis, especially in percentage change of stock market indices. Deutscher Aktien IndeX (DAX) is very important stock market index of Frankfurt Deutsche Börse which serves as underlying basis for large number of financial instruments. It is calculated for selected 30 German blue chips stocks. In this paper, Benford's Law first digit test is applied on 10 year DAX daily percentage changes in order to check compliance. Deviations of 10 year DAX percentage changes set as well as distortions of certain subsets from Benford's Law distribution are detected. It is possible that deviations are the outcome of speculations; and psychological influence should not be eliminated.

Keywords: Benford's Law, DAX, index percentage changes, stock market

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Authors: G. Sridevi, Amalendu Jyotishi, Sushanta Mahapatra, G. Jagadeesh, Satyasiba Bedamatta

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Climate change is a main challenge for agriculture, food security and rural livelihoods for millions of people in India. Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to climate change due to its high dependence on climate and weather conditions. Among India’s population of more than one billion people, about 68% are directly or indirectly involved in the agricultural sector. This sector is particularly vulnerable to present-day climate variability. In this contest this paper examines the Socio-economic and climate analytical study of the vulnerability index in Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Using secondary data; it examines the vulnerability through five different sub-indicator of socio-demographic, agriculture, occupational, common property resource (CPR), and climate in respective states among different districts. Data used in this paper has taken from different sources, like census in India 2011, Directorate of Economics and Statistics of respective states governments. Rainfall data was collected from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). In order to capture the vulnerability from two different states the composite vulnerability index (CVI) was developed and used. This indicates the vulnerability situation of different districts under two states. The study finds that Adilabad district in Andhra Pradesh and Chamarajanagar in Karnataka had highest level of vulnerability while Hyderabad and Bangalore in respective states have least level of vulnerability.

Keywords: vulnerability, agriculture, climate change, global warming

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Authors: Matthew J. I. Woolley, Gemma J. M. Read, Paul M. Salmon, Natassia Goode

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The significance of high consequence, workplace failures within construction continues to resonate with a combined average of 12 fatal incidents occurring daily throughout Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Within the Australian construction domain, more than 35 serious, compensable injury incidents are reported daily. These alarming figures, in conjunction with the continued occurrence of fatal and serious, occupational injury incidents globally suggest existing approaches to incident analysis may not be achieving required injury prevention outcomes. One reason may be that, incident analysis methods used in construction have not kept pace with advances in the field of safety science and are not uncovering the full range system-wide contributory factors that are required to achieve optimal levels of construction safety performance. Another reason underpinning this global issue may also be the absence of information surrounding the construction operating and project delivery system. For example, it is not clear who shares the responsibility for construction safety in different contexts. To respond to this issue, to the author’s best knowledge, a first of its kind, control structure model of the construction industry is presented and then used to analyse a fatal construction incident. The model was developed by applying and extending the Systems Theoretic and Incident Model and Process method to hierarchically represent the actors, constraints, feedback mechanisms, and relationships that are involved in managing construction safety performance. The Causal Analysis based on Systems Theory (CAST) method was then used to identify the control and feedback failures involved in the fatal incident. The conclusions from the Coronial investigation into the event are compared with the findings stemming from the CAST analysis. The CAST analysis highlighted additional issues across the construction system that were not identified in the coroner’s recommendations, suggested there is a potential benefit in applying a systems theory approach to incident analysis in construction. The findings demonstrate the utility applying systems theory-based methods to the analysis of construction incidents. Specifically, this study shows the utility of the construction control structure and the potential benefits for project leaders, construction entities, regulators, and construction clients in controlling construction performance.

Keywords: construction project management, construction performance, incident analysis, systems thinking

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Authors: Amy Stringer, Resa Chandler

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High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) involves a 3-10-minute circuit of various exercises which is a viable alternative to a traditional cardiovascular and strength training regimen. Research suggests that measures of health-related fitness can either be maintained or actually improve with the use of this training method. After conducting a 6-week HIIT research study with 10-14 year old children, considerations for using a daily HIIT workout are presented. Is the use of HIIT with children a reasonable consideration for physical education programs? The benefits and challenges of this type of an intervention are identified. This study is significant in that achieving fitness gains in a small amount of daily class time is an attractive concept – especially for physical education teachers who often do not have the time necessary to accomplish all of their curricular goals in the amount of class time assigned. Basic methodologies include students participating in a circuit of exercises for 7-10 minutes at 80-95% of max heart rate as measured by heart rate monitors. Student pre and post fitness test data were collected for cardio-vascular endurance, muscular endurance, and body composition. Research notes as well as commentary by the teachers and researchers who participated in the HIIT study contributed to the understanding of the cost-benefit analysis. Major findings of the study are that HIIT has limited effectiveness but is a good choice for limited class times. Student efficacy of their ability to complete the exercises and visible heart rate data were considered to be significant factors in success of the HIIT study. The effective use of technology promoting positive audience effect during the display of heart rate data was more important at the beginning of the study than at the end. Student ‘buy-in’ and motivation, teacher motivation and ‘buy-in’, the variety of activities in the circuit and the fitness level of the student at the beginning of the study were also findings influencing the fitness outcomes of the study. Concluding Statement: High intensity interval training can be used effectively in a secondary physical education program. It is not a ‘magic bullet’ to produce health-related fitness outcomes in every student but it is an effective tool to enhance student fitness in a limited time and contribute to the goals of the program.

Keywords: cardio vascular fitness, children, high intensity interval training, physical education

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Authors: Miraji H. Mohamed

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The purpose of this study is to critique ‘radicalisation’ and more particularly ‘youth radicalisation’ by exploring its usage in online newspapers. ‘Radicalisation’ and ‘extremism’ have become the most common terms in terrorism studies since the 9/11 attacks. Regardless of the geographic location, when the word terrorism is used the terms ‘radicalisation’ and ‘extremism’ always follow to attempt to explore the journey of the perpetrators towards violence. These terms have come to represent a discourse of dominantly pejorative traits often used to describe spaces, groups, and processes identified as problematic. Even though ambiguously defined they feature widely in government documents, political statements, news articles, academic research, social media platforms, religious gatherings, and public discussions. Notably, ‘radicalisation’ and ‘extremism’ have been closely conflated with the term youth to form ‘youth radicalisation’ to refer to a discourse of ‘youth at risk’. The three terms largely continue to be used unquestioningly and interchangeably hence the reason why they are placed in single quotation marks to deliberately question their conventional usage. Albeit this comes timely in the Kenyan context where there has been a proliferation of academic and expert research on ‘youth radicalisation’ (used as a neutral label) without considering the political, cultural and socio-historical contexts that inform this label. This study seeks to draw these nuances by employing a genealogical approach that historicises and deconstructs ‘youth radicalisation’; and by applying a Discourse-Historical Approach (DHA) of Critical Discourse Analysis to analyse Kenyan online newspaper - The Daily Nation between 2015 and 2018. By applying the concept of representation to analyse written texts, the study reveals that the use of ‘youth radicalisation’ as a discursive strategy disproportionately affects young people especially those from cultural/ethnic/religious minority groups. Also, the ambiguous use of ‘radicalisation’ and ‘youth radicalisation’ by the media reinforces the discourse of ‘youth at risk’ which has become the major framework underpinning Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) interventions. Similarly, the findings indicate that the uncritical use of ‘youth radicalisation’ has been used to serve political interests; and has become an instrument of policing young people, thus contributing to their cultural shaping. From this, it is evident that the media could thwart rather than assist CVE efforts. By exposing the political nature of the three terms through evidence-based research, this study offers recommendations on how critical reflective reporting by the media could help to make CVE more nuanced.

Keywords: discourse, extremism, radicalisation, terrorism, youth

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Authors: Subrat Kumar Bhattamisra, Vivian Lee Yean Yan, Chin Koh Lee, Chew Hui Kuean, Yun Khoon Liew, Mayuren Candasamy

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Geraniol, an acyclic monoterpenoid is the main active constituent in the essential oils of rose and palmorosa. Antioxidant, antibacterial, anticancer and antiulcer activity of geraniol was reported by many researchers. The present investigation was designed to study in vivo antiulcer and anti-Helicobacter pylori activity of geraniol. Antiulcer and anti-H. pylori activity of geraniol was evaluated on acetic acid plus H. pylori induced ulcer in rats. Acetic acid (0.03 mL) was injected to the sub-serosal layer of the stomach through laparotomy under anaesthesia. Orogastric inoculation of H. pylori (ATCC 43504) was done twice daily for 7 days. Geraniol (15 and 30 mg/kg), vehicle and standard drugs (Amoxicillin, 50 mg/kg; clarithromycin, 25 mg/kg & omeprazole, 20 mg/kg) was administered twice daily for 14 days. Antiulcer activity of geraniol was examined by the determination of gastric ulcer index, measuring the volume of gastric juice, pH and total acidity, myeloperoxidase activity and histopathological examination. Histopathological investigation for the presence of inflammation, white blood cell infiltration, edema, the mucosal damage was studied. The presence of H. pylori was detected by placing a biopsy sample from antral part of the stomach into rapid urease test. Ulcer index in H. pylori inoculated control group was 4.13 ± 0.85 and was significantly (P < 0.05) lowered in geraniol (30 mg/kg) and reference drug treated group. Geraniol increase the pH of the gastric juice (2.18 ± 0.13 in control vs. 4.14 ± 0.57 in geraniol 30mg/kg) and lower total acidity significantly (P < 0.01) in geraniol (15 & 30 mg/kg). Myeloperoxidase (MPO) activity was measured in stomach homogenate of all the groups. H. pylori control group has significant (P < 0.05) increase in MPO activity compared to normal control group. Geraniol (30 mg/kg) was showed significant (P < 0.05) and most effective among all the groups. Histopathological examination of rat stomach was scored and the total score for H. pylori control group was 8. After geraniol (30 mg/kg) and reference drug treatment, the histopathological score was significantly decreased and it was observed to be 3.5 and 2.0 respectively. Percentage inhibition of H. pylori infection in geraniol (30 mg/kg) and reference drug were found to be 40% and 50% respectively whereas, 100% infection in H. pylori control group was observed. Geraniol exhibited significant antiulcer and anti- H. pylori activity in the rats. Thus, geraniol has the potential for the further development as an effective medication in treating H. pylori associated ulcer.

Keywords: geraniol, helicobacter pylori atcc 43504, myeloperoxidase, ulcer

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Authors: Hussain-Abdulah Arjmand, Nikki S. Rickard

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The response to stress can be highly heterogenous, and may be influenced by methodological factors. The integrity of data will be optimized by measuring both positive and negative affective responses to an event, by measuring responses in real time as close to the stressful event as possible, and by utilizing data collection methods that do not interfere with naturalistic behaviours. The aim of the current study was to explore short term prototypical responses to major stressor events on outcome measures encompassing both positive and negative indicators of psychological functioning. A novel mobile experience sampling methodology (m-ESM) was utilized to monitor both effective responses to stressors in real time. A smartphone mental health app (‘Moodprism’) which prompts users daily to report both their positive and negative mood, as well as whether any significant event had occurred in the past 24 hours, was developed for this purpose. A sample of 142 participants was recruited as part of the promotion of this app. Participants’ daily reported experience of stressor events, levels of depressive symptoms and positive affect were collected across a 30 day period as they used the app. For each participant, major stressor events were identified on the subjective severity of the event rated by the user. Depression and positive affect ratings were extracted for the three days following the event. Responses to the event were scaled relative to their general reactivity across the remainder of the 30 day period. Participants were first clustered into groups based on initial reactivity and subsequent recovery following a stressor event. This revealed distinct patterns of responding along depressive symptomatology and positive affect. Participants were then grouped based on allocations to clusters in each outcome variable. A highly individualised nature in which participants respond to stressor events, in symptoms of depression and levels of positive affect, was observed. A complete description of the novel profiles identified will be presented at the conference. These findings suggest that real-time measurement of both positive and negative functioning to stressors yields a more complex set of responses than previously observed with retrospective reporting. The use of smartphone technology to measure individualized responding also proved to shed significant insight.

Keywords: depression, experience sampling methodology, positive functioning, resilience

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Authors: Aman Guru, Chiron Singhi

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The Earth’s climate is being changed at an unrivalled rate since beginning of the evolution of the Earth, 4–5 billion years back, but presently it gained pace due to unintentional anthropogenic disturbances and also increased global warming since the mid-20th century, and these incessant changes in the climatic pattern may bring unpropitious effect on global health and security. Today, however, it is not only the air, or water that are polluted, but the whole atmosphere is prone to pollution and this resulted in other cascading ramification in the form of change in the pattern of rainfall, melting of ice, the rise in the sea level etc. Human activities like production, transport, burning of fuels are adding umpteen dangerous pollutants to the atmosphere which in turn gives rise to global warming. Agriculture plays an imperative part in India's economy. Agriculture, along with fisheries and forestry, is one of the largest contributors to the Gross Domestic Product in India. Research on the effect of climate change and vulnerability of agriculture is a high need in India. A steady increase of CO2 is a primary cause of climate change and global warming and which in turn have a great impact on Indian agriculture. The research focuses on the effect of climate change on Indian agriculture and the proceedings and legal control of legislative measures on such issues and the ways to implement such laws which can help to provide a solution to these problems which can prove beneficial to Indian farmers and their agricultural produce.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, global warming, India laws, legislative measures

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Ayad K. Hussein, Aseel A. Alkatib

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Groundwater accumulated at geological formations constitutes a worldwide vital water resource component which can be used to supply agriculture, industry, and domestic uses. The subsurface environment is affected by human activities; consequently, planning and sustainable management of aquifers require serious attention, especially as the world is exposed to the problem of global warming. Establishing accurate and efficient groundwater models will provide confident results for the behavior of the aquifer's system. The new approach, 'Distributed Value Property Zones,' available in Visual MODFLOW, is used to reconstruct the subsurface zones of the Al-Najaf region aquifer, and then its effect is compared with those manual and automated (PEST) approaches. Results show that the model has become more accurate with the use of the new approach, as the calibration and results analyses revealed. The assessment of the Al-Najaf region groundwater aquifer has revealed a degree of insufficiency of the required pumping demand, which reflects dry areas in both of the aquifer's layers. In addition, with pumping, the Euphrates River loses water of 7458 m³/day to the aquifer, while without pumping, it gains 28837 m³/day from the rainfall's recharge. The distributed value property zones approach achieves a precise groundwater model to assess the state of the Al-Najaf region aquifer.

Keywords: Al-Najaf region, distributed value property zones approach, hydraulic conductivity, groundwater modelling using visual MODFLOW

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Authors: Osung Im, Neha Yadav, Eui Hoon Lee, Joong Hoon Kim

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach is commonly used in lots of fields for forecasting. In water resources engineering, forecast of water level or inflow of reservoir is useful for various kind of purposes. Due to advantages of ANN, many papers were written for inflow prediction in river networks, but in this study, ANN is used in urban sewer networks. The growth of severe rain storm in Korea has increased flood damage severely, and the precipitation distribution is getting more erratic. Therefore, effective pump operation in pump station is an essential task for the reduction in urban area. If real time inflow of pump station reservoir can be predicted, it is possible to operate pump effectively for reducing the flood damage. This study used ANN model for pump station reservoir inflow prediction using upstream sewer depth data. For this study, rainfall events, sewer depth, and inflow into Banpo pump station reservoir between years of 2013-2014 were considered. Feed – Forward Back Propagation (FFBF), Cascade – Forward Back Propagation (CFBP), Elman Back Propagation (EBP) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) were used as ANN model for prediction. A comparison of results with ANN model suggests that ANN is a powerful tool for inflow prediction using the sewer depth data.

Keywords: artificial neural network, forecasting, reservoir inflow, sewer depth

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Authors: Shormin Choudhury, Nazrul Islam, Atiqur Rahman Shaon

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High tunnels can provide several benefits to horticultural crops, including environmental stress protection such as hail, frost, excessive rainfall, and high wind. In hot and sunny areas, high tunnel is one of the cooling ways for modifying the microclimate and maximizing crop development. Present study was carried out to assess the effect of different type of high tunnels on banana growth, yield, and fruit quality characteristics. Net houses, poly net houses, UV poly shed houses, and open field (control) conditions are among the experimental treatments. The results revealed that the plants produced in the poly net house condition had maximum pseudo stem height (171.00cm), stem girth (68.66 cm), chlorophyll content (57.63), number of fruits (140), number of hands (9.66), individual fruit weight (125.00) and pulp: peel ratio (3.35) of bananas as compared to the other treatments. Quality parameters like total soluble solid (21.78°Brix), ascorbic acid (10.24 mg/100g), total sugar (25.44%), and reducing sugar (15.75%) were higher in fruits grown in poly net house. The study revealed that the poly net house is the best growing environment for bananas in terms of growth, yield, and quality attributes.

Keywords: shed houses, banana, chlorophyll content, fruit yield, quality

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Authors: Rebeca V. Tholen, Elaine Bundy

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Background: Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease Background: Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease (ESLD). The effects of alcoholism can cause irreversible liver damage, cirrhosis and subsequent liver failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant occurs in 20-50% of patients and increases the risk for recurrent cirrhosis, organ rejection, and graft failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant has been identified as a problem among liver transplant recipients at a large urban academic transplant center in the United States. Transplantation will reverse the complications of ESLD, but it does not treat underlying alcoholism or reduce the risk of relapse after transplant. The purpose of this quality improvement project is to implement and evaluate the effectiveness of a High-Risk Alcoholism Relapse (HRAR) Scale to screen and identify patients at high-risk for alcohol relapse after receiving an LT. Methods: The HRAR Scale is a predictive tool designed to determine the severity of alcoholism and risk of relapse after transplant. The scale consists of three variables identified as having the highest predictive power for early relapse including, daily number of drinks, history of previous inpatient treatment for alcoholism, and the number of years of heavy drinking. All adult liver transplant recipients at a large urban transplant center were screened with the HRAR Scale prior to hospital discharge. A zero to two ordinal score is ranked for each variable, and the total score ranges from zero to six. High-risk scores are between three to six. Results: Descriptive statistics revealed 25 patients were newly transplanted and discharged from the hospital during an 8-week period. 40% of patients (n=10) were identified as being high-risk for relapse and 60% low-risk (n=15). The daily number of drinks were determined by alcohol content (1 drink = 15g of ethanol) and number of drinks per day. 60% of patients reported drinking 9-17 drinks per day, and 40% reported ≤ 9 drinks. 50% of high-risk patients reported drinking ≥ 25 years, 40% for 11-25 years, and 10% ≤ 11 years. For number of inpatient treatments for alcoholism, 50% received inpatient treatment one time, 20% ≥ 1, and 30% reported never receiving inpatient treatment. Findings reveal the importance and value of a validated screening tool as a more efficient method than other screening methods alone. Integration of a structured clinical tool will help guide the drinking history portion of the psychosocial assessment. Targeted interventions can be implemented for all high-risk patients. Conclusions: Our findings validate the effectiveness of utilizing the HRAR scale to screen and identify patients who are a high-risk for alcohol relapse post-LT. Recommendations to help maintain post-transplant sobriety include starting a transplant support group within the organization for all high-risk patients. (ESLD). The effects of alcoholism can cause irreversible liver damage, cirrhosis and subsequent liver failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant occurs in 20-50% of patients, and increases the risk for recurrent cirrhosis, organ rejection, and graft failure. Alcohol relapse after transplant has been identified as a problem among liver transplant recipients at a large urban academic transplant center in the United States. Transplantation will reverse the complications of ESLD, but it does not treat underlying alcoholism or reduce the risk of relapse after transplant. The purpose of this quality improvement project is to implement and evaluate the effectiveness of a High-Risk Alcoholism Relapse (HRAR) Scale to screen and identify patients at high-risk for alcohol relapse after receiving a LT. Methods: The HRAR Scale is a predictive tool designed to determine severity of alcoholism and risk of relapse after transplant. The scale consists of three variables identified as having the highest predictive power for early relapse including, daily number of drinks, history of previous inpatient treatment for alcoholism, and the number of years of heavy drinking. All adult liver transplant recipients at a large urban transplant center were screened with the HRAR Scale prior to hospital discharge. A zero to two ordinal score is ranked for each variable, and the total score ranges from zero to six. High-risk scores are between three to six. Results: Descriptive statistics revealed 25 patients were newly transplanted and discharged from the hospital during an 8-week period. 40% of patients (n=10) were identified as being high-risk for relapse and 60% low-risk (n=15). The daily number of drinks were determined by alcohol content (1 drink = 15g of ethanol) and number of drinks per day. 60% of patients reported drinking 9-17 drinks per day, and 40% reported ≤ 9 drinks. 50% of high-risk patients reported drinking ≥ 25 years, 40% for 11-25 years, and 10% ≤ 11 years. For number of inpatient treatments for alcoholism, 50% received inpatient treatment one time, 20% ≥ 1, and 30% reported never receiving inpatient treatment. Findings reveal the importance and value of a validated screening tool as a more efficient method than other screening methods alone. Integration of a structured clinical tool will help guide the drinking history portion of the psychosocial assessment. Targeted interventions can be implemented for all high-risk patients. Conclusions: Our findings validate the effectiveness of utilizing the HRAR scale to screen and identify patients who are a high-risk for alcohol relapse post-LT. Recommendations to help maintain post-transplant sobriety include starting a transplant support group within the organization for all high-risk patients.

Keywords: alcoholism, liver transplant, quality improvement, substance abuse

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Authors: Hung Manh Nguyen, Duong Dai Nguyen

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Objective: To evaluate the effects of Tai Chi exercise on cognitive performance of community-dwelling elderly in Vinh city, Vietnam. Design: A randomized controlled trial. Participants: One hundred and two subjected were recruited. Intervention: Subjects were divided randomly into two groups. Tai Chi group was assigned 6-months Tai Chi training. Control group was instructed to maintain their routine daily activities. Outcome measures: Trail Making Test (TMT) is primary outcome measure. Results: Participants in Tai Chi group reported significant improvement in TMT (part A) F(1, 71) = 78.37, p < .001, and in TMT (part B) F(1, 71)= 175.00, p < .001 in comparison with Control group. Conclusion: Tai Chi is beneficial to improve cognitive performance of the elderly.

Keywords: cognitive, elderly, Vietnam, Tai Chi

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Authors: Karla Lebedoff, Susan Walsh, Michelle Bain

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Eczema is a chronic atopy condition requiring long-term daily management in children. Written action plans for other chronic atopic conditions, such as asthma and food allergies, are widely recommended and distributed to pediatric patients' parents and caregivers, seeking to improve clinical outcomes and become empowered to manage the patient's ever-changing symptoms. Written action plans for eczema, referred to as "asthma of the skin," are not routinely used in practice. Parents of children suffering from eczema rarely receive a written action plan to follow, and commendations supporting eczema action plans are inconsistent. Pediatric patients between birth and 18 years old who were followed for eczema at an urban Midwest community hospital were eligible to participate in this quality improvement project. At the initial visit, parents received instructions on individualized eczema action plans for their child and completed two validated surveys: Health Confidence Score (HCS) and Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM). Pre- and post-survey responses were collected, and clinical symptom presentation at follow-up were outcome determinants. Project implementation was guided by Institute for Healthcare Improvement's Step-up Framework and the Plan-Do-Study-Act cycle. This project measured clinical outcomes and parent confidence in self-management of their child's eczema symptoms with the responses from 26 participant surveys. Pre-survey responses were collected from 36 participants, though ten were lost to follow-up. Average POEM scores improved by 53%, while average HCS scores remained unchanged. Of seven completed in-person follow-up visits, six clinical progress notes documented improvement. Individualized eczema action plans can be seamlessly incorporated into primary and specialty care visits for pediatric patients suffering from eczema. Following a patient-specific eczema action plan may lessen the daily physical and mental burdens of uncontrolled eczema for children and parents, managing symptoms that chronically flare and recede. Furthermore, incorporating eczema action plans into practice potentially reduces the likely underestimated $5.3 billion economic disease burden of eczema on the U.S. healthcare system.

Keywords: atopic dermatitis, eczema action plan, eczema symptom management, pediatric eczema

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Authors: Saima Iftikhar Rida Shabbir, Zeeshan Hassan

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Water shortage, energy crisis and natural misfortunes are the glitches which reduce the efficacy of agricultural ecosystems especially in Pakistan where these are more frequent besides being intense. Accordingly, the agricultural water resources, food security and country’s economy are at risk. To address this, we have used Geospatial techniques incorporating ASTER Global DEM, Geological map, rainfall data, discharge data, Landsat 5 image of Swat valley in order to assess the viability of selected sites. The sites have been studied via GIS tools, Hydrological investigation and multiparametric analysis for their potentialities of collecting and securing the rain water; regulating floods by storing the surplus water bulks by check dams and developing them for power generation. Our results showed that Siat1-1 was very useful for low-cost dam with main objective of as Debris dam; Site-2 and Site 3 were check dams sites having adequate storing reservoir so as to arrest the inconsistent flow accompanied by catering the sedimentation effects and the debris flows; Site 4 had a huge reservoir capacity but it entails enormous edifice cost over very great flood plain. Thus, there is necessity of active Hydrological developments to estimate the flooded area using advanced and multifarious GIS and remote sensing approaches so that the sites could be developed for harnessing those sites for agricultural and energy drives.

Keywords: site suitability, check dams, SHP, terrain analysis, volume estimation

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Authors: Oladele V. Adeniyi, B. Longo-Mbenza, Daniel T. Goon

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Background: Lipids are often low or in the normal ranges and controversial in the atherogenesis among Black Africans. The effect of the severity of obesity on some traditional and novel cardiovascular disease risk factors is unclear before and after a diet and exercise maintenance programme among obese black South Africans with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Therefore, this study aimed to identify the risk factors to discriminate obesity classes among patients with T2DM before and after a diet and exercise programme. Methods: This interventional cohort of Black South Africans with T2DM was followed by a very – low calorie diet and exercise programme in Mthatha, between August and November 2013. Gender, age, and the levels of body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, monthly income, daily frequency of meals, blood random plasma glucose (RPG), serum creatinine, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), LDL –C, HDL – C, Non-HDL, ratios of TC/HDL, TG/HDL, and LDL/HDL were recorded. Univariate analysis (ANOVA) and multivariate discriminant analysis were performed to separate obesity classes: normal weight (BMI = 18.5 – 24.9 kg/m2), overweight (BMI = 25 – 29.9 kg/m2), obesity Class 1 (BMI = 30 – 34.9 kg/m2), obesity Class 2 (BMI = 35 – 39.9 kg/m2), and obesity Class 3 (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2). Results: At the baseline (1st Month September), all 327 patients were overweight/obese: 19.6% overweight, 42.8% obese class 1, 22.3% obese class 2, and 15.3% obese class 3. In discriminant analysis, only systolic blood pressure (SBP with positive association) and LDL/HDL ratio (negative association) significantly separated increasing obesity classes. At the post – evaluation (3rd Month November), out of all 327 patients, 19.9%, 19.3%, 37.6%, 15%, and 8.3% had normal weight, overweight, obesity class 1, obesity class 2, and obesity class 3, respectively. There was a significant negative association between serum creatinine and increase in BMI. In discriminant analysis, only age (positive association), SBP (U – shaped relationship), monthly income (inverted U – shaped association), daily frequency of meals (positive association), and LDL/HDL ratio (positive association) classified significantly increasing obesity classes. Conclusion: There is an epidemic of diabesity (Obesity + T2DM) in this Black South Africans with some weight loss. Further studies are needed to understand positive or negative linear correlations and paradoxical curvilinear correlations between these markers and increase in BMI among black South African T2DM patients.

Keywords: atherogenic dyslipidaemia, dietary interventions, obesity, south africans

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Authors: Adam Musa Adam Eissa

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Environmental and weather changes especially rainfall affects the distribution and densities of mosquitoes. This work was carried out to study the distribution and densities of mosquitoes adults and larvae in a total of five selected stations in El Obied Town. A cross-sectional survey of Anopheline mosquito larval habitats was conducted. The survey was conducted during the dry season (January 2013). Larvae were collected by using the standard dipping technique, while adult stages were collected by rearing larvae in cage, because the density of adults Anopheles mosquito per room was zero by using spray sheet method by using Permethrin pesticide 25%E.C, during the study period. The results revealed that (2347) Anopheline mosquito larvae were found and collected from only one station. All of which (2347) larvae (100%) were classified as probably Anopheles Squamosus. The study also showed that, a number of 81 adults (100%) Anopheline mosquito were classified as probably Anopheles Squamosus. Anopheles Squamosus were found only in the shallow pond water habitat in Alrahma west area of El Obied, the mean Anopheline density in the study area for larvae was 0.313 per dip while the mean density of adult was 0 per room. The high mosquito larval density in Alrahma west area indicated that, this part of El Obied Town is at risk of mosquito-borne diseases including malaria. This study recommended to apply the control program against mosquito at this part of the Town.

Keywords: anopheles, squamosus, Alrahma, distribution

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Authors: Noor Aliza Binti Ahmad, Azra Munirah Mat Daud, Sabariah Musa, Mohamad Azhar MK

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Flooding is a common natural disaster in Malaysia triggered by heavy rainfall. Urbanization that increases the construction of paved areas, subsequently raise surface runoff and reduce time of concentration. It increases flood magnitude and so that leads to greater flood problems as what has happened at Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM) area in December 2006 and earlier 2007. Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi were constructed as recreation ponds and have also functioned as flood ponds. Unfortunately, the flood problem still occurs persistently. Thus, the effectiveness of Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi in reducing the flood problems need to be investigated and the causes of flood events at UTHM Campus need to be evaluated. The results from this study show that the conditions of Tasik Kemajuan and Tasik Inovasi are effective in reducing the flood water levels. It also can be concluded that increasing water level in both lakes in UTHM Campus are significantly influenced by presence of the grass and rubbish. During dry condition, the flow rates with three different days are 59.38m3/s, 60.71m3/s and 59.08m3/s and while for wet condition in two different days are 89.59 m3/s and 86.61m3/s. In conclusion, this system should be improved to prevent future flooding either widened or reduced drainage floor, and also perform maintenance on the plants that live around the lake.

Keywords: drainage system, flood detention, lakes, storm water

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Authors: Sheng Huang, Xin Zhao, Xiaofeng Gao, Tao Zhou, Shijin Dai, Youcai Zhao

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Adsorption of heavy metal pollutants (Zn, Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu) and organic pesticide (phorate, dithiophosphate diethyl, triethyl phosphorothioate), along with their multi-contamination on the surface of industrial construction & demolition waste (C&D waste) was investigated. Brick powder was selected as the appropriate waste while its maximum equilibrium adsorption amount of heavy metal under single controlled contamination matrix reached 5.41, 0.81, 0.45, 1.13 and 0.97 mg/g, respectively. Effects of pH and spiking dose of ICDW was also investigated. Equilibrium adsorption amount of organic pesticide varied from 0.02 to 0.97 mg/g, which was negatively correlated to the size distribution and hydrophilism. Existence of organic pesticide on surface of ICDW caused various effects on the heavy metal adsorption, mainly due to combination of metal ions and the floccule formation along with wrapping behaviors by pesticide pollutants. Adsorption of Zn was sharply decreased from 7.1 to 0.15 mg/g compared with clean ICDW and phorate contaminated ICDW, while that of Pb, Cr and Cd experienced an increase- then decrease procedure. On the other hand, runoff of pesticide contaminants was investigated under 25 mm/h simulated rainfall. Results showed that the cumulative runoff amount fitted well with curve obtained from a power function, of which r2=0.95 and 0.91 for 1DAA (1 day between contamination and runoff) and 7DAA, respectively. This study helps provide evaluation of industrial construction and demolition waste contamination into aquatic systems.

Keywords: adsorption mechanism, industrial construction waste, metals, pesticide, runoff

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Authors: Evren Şar İşbilen

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As it is known, the movies and tv series are occupying a large part in the daily lives of adults and children in our era. In this connection, in the present study, the most popular historical TV series of recent years in Turkey, “Muhteşem Yüzyıl” (The Magnificent Century), was selected as the sample for the data collection in order to explore the perception of history of university students’. The data collected was analyzed bothqualitatively and quantitatively. The findings discussed in relation to the possible educative effects of historical non-educational TV series and movies on students' perceptions related to history. Additionally, suggestions were made regarding to the utilization of non-educational TV series or movies in education in a positive way.

Keywords: education, history, movies, teacher candidates

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Authors: Germans Natuhwera, Peter Ellis, Acuda Wilson, Anne Merriman, Martha Rabwoni

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Objective: The aim of the study was to diagnose the socio-economic burden and impact of a diagnosis of cervical cancer (CC) in rural women in the context of low-resourced country Uganda, using a phenomenological enquiry. Methods: This was a multi-site phenomenological inquiry, conducted at three hospice settings; Mobile Hospice Mbarara in southwestern, Little Hospice Hoima in Western, and Hospice Africa Uganda Kampala in central Uganda. A purposive sample of women with a histologically confirmed diagnosis of CC was recruited. Data was collected using open-ended audio-recorded interviews conducted in the native languages of participants. Interviews were transcribed verbatim in English, and Braun and Clarke’s (2019) framework of thematic analysis was used. Results: 13 women with a mean age of 49.2 and age range 29-71 participated in the study. All participants were of low socioeconomic status. The majority (84.6%) had advanced disease at diagnosis. A fuller reading of transcripts produced four major themes clustered under; (1) socioeconomic characteristics of women, (2) impact of CC on women’s relationships, (3) disrupted and impaired activities of daily living (ADLs), and (4) economic disruptions. Conclusions: A diagnosis of CC introduces significant socio-economic disruptions in a woman’s and her family’s life. CC causes disability, impairs the woman and her family’s productivity hence exacerbating levels of poverty in the home. High and expensive out-of-pocket expenditure on treatment, investigations, and transport costs further compound the socio-economic burden. Decentralizing cancer care services to regional centers, scaling up screening services, subsidizing costs of cancer care services, or making cervical cancer care treatment free of charge, strengthening monitoring mechanisms in public facilities to curb the vice of healthcare workers soliciting bribes from patients, increased mass awareness campaigns about cancer, training more healthcare professionals in cancer investigation and management, and palliative care, and introducing an introductory course on gynecologic cancers into all health training institutions are recommended.

Keywords: activities of daily living, cervical cancer, out-of-pocket, expenditure, phenomenology, socioeconomic

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Authors: Amanuel Bekuma, Rebecca Swift, Sarah Jackson, Ben Biddulph

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Economic loss to frost damage is increasing over the past years in the Western Australian Wheatbelt. Agronomic, genetic, and climatic works have still found a weak correlation between temperature and frost damage. One possibility that has not been explored within the Australian cropping system is whether ice nucleation active bacteria (INB) either present in situ on crop residue or introduced by rainfall could be responsible for the increased sensitivity of cereal plants to frost at different stages of development. This study investigated upper and lower leaf canopy, stubble, and soil as a potential site of ice nucleation activity (INA) and tracked the changes in INA during the plant development. We found that older leaves of wheat are the primary sites of ice nucleation (-4.7 to -6.3°C) followed by stubble (-5.7 to -6.7°C) which increases the risk of frost damage during heading and flowering (the most susceptible stages). However, healthy and green upper canopy leaves (flag and flag-2) and the soil have lower INA (< -11°C) during the frost-sensitive stage of wheat. We anticipate the higher INA on the stubble and older leaves to be due to the presence of biologically active ice-nucleating bacteria (INB), known to cause frost injury to sensitive plants at -5°C. Stubble retained or applied during the growing season further exacerbates additional frost risk by potentially increasing the INB load. The implications of the result for stubble and frost risk management in a frost-prone landscape will be discussed.

Keywords: frost, ice-nucleation-activity, stubble, wheat

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Authors: Dinebari Akpee, Friday Aabe Gaage, Florence Fred Nwaigwu

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Natural disasters like flood affect many parts of the world including developing countries like Nigeria. As a result, many human lives are lost, properties damaged and so much money is lost in infrastructure damages. These hazards and losses can be mitigated and reduced by providing reliable spatial information to the generality of the people through about flood risks through flood inundation maps. Flood inundation maps are very crucial for emergency action plans, urban planning, ecological studies and insurance rates. Nigeria experience her worst flood in her entire history this year. Many cities were submerged and completely under water due to torrential rainfall. Poor city planning, lack of effective development control among others contributes to the problem too. Geographic information system (GIS) can be used to visualize the extent of flooding, analyze flood maps to produce flood damaged estimation maps and flood risk maps. In this research, the under listed steps were taken in preparation of flood risk maps for the study area: (1) Digitization of topographic data and preparation of digital elevation model using ArcGIS (2) Flood simulation using hydraulic model and integration and (3) Integration of the first two steps to produce flood risk maps. The results shows that GIS can play crucial role in Flood disaster control and mitigation.

Keywords: flood disaster, risk maps, geographic information system, hazards

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Authors: T. Qasim, M. Alqawasmi, M. Hawash, M. Betar, W. Qasim

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Over the last decade, the over population that has happened in urban areas has been reflecting on the services that various local institutions provide to car users in the form of car parks, which is becoming a daily necessity in our lives. This study focuses on car parks at Jordan University of Science and Technology, in Irbid, Jordan, to understand the university parking needs. Data regarding arrival and departure times of cars and the parking utilization were collected, to find various options that the university can implement to solve and develop an efficient car parking system. Arena software was used to simulate a parking model. This model allows measuring the different solutions that solve the parking problem at Jordan University of Science and Technology.

Keywords: car park, simulation, modeling, service time

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Preeti Yadav, Dandeswar Bisoyi, Debkumar Chakrabati

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For many years organization have been exercising a creative technique of applying brand mascots, which results in making a visual ‘ambassador’ of a brand. The goal of mascot’s is just not confined to strengthening the brand identity, improving customer perception, but also acting as a vehicle of anthropomorphic translation towards the consumer. Such that it helps in embracing the power of recognition and processing the experiences happening in our daily lives. The study examines the relationship between the specific mascot features and brand attitude. It eliminates that mascot trust is an important mediator of the mascot features on brand attitude. Anthropomorphic characters turn out to be the key players despite the application of brand mascots in today’s marketing.

Keywords: advertising, mascot, branding, recall

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Authors: Pingping Zhang, Yanpeng Cai, Jianlong Wang

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Stormwater storage tank (SST) is a popular low impact development technology for reducing stormwater runoff in the construction of sponge city. At present, it is difficult to perform the automatic control of SST for reducing peak flow. In this paper, fuzzy control was introduced into the peak control of SST to improve the efficiency of reducing stormwater runoff. Firstly, the design of SST was investigated. A catchment area and a return period were assumed, a SST model was manufactured, and then the storage capacity of the SST was verified. Secondly, the control parameters of the SST based on reducing stormwater runoff were analyzed, and a schematic diagram of real-time control (RTC) system based on peak control SST was established. Finally, fuzzy control system of a double input (flow and water level) and double output (inlet and outlet valve) was designed. The results showed that 1) under the different return periods (one year, three years, five years), the SST had the effect of delayed peak control and storage by increasing the detention time, 2) rainfall, pipeline flow, the influent time and the water level in the SST could be used as RTC parameters, and 3) the response curves of flow velocity and water level fluctuated very little and reached equilibrium in a short time. The combination of online monitoring and fuzzy control was feasible to control the SST automatically. This paper provides a theoretical reference for reducing stormwater runoff and improving the operation efficiency of SST.

Keywords: stormwater runoff, stormwater storage tank, real-time control, fuzzy control

Procedia PDF Downloads 197