Search results for: autoregressive moving average model

Authors: Sadia Arshad, Ayesha Sohail, Sana Javed, Khadija Maqbool, Salma Kanwal

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The dynamical study of the carriers play an essential role in the evolution and global transmission of infectious diseases and will be discussed in this study. To make this approach novel, we will consider the fractional order model which is generalization of integer order derivative to an arbitrary number. Since the integration involved is non local therefore this property of fractional operator is very useful to study epidemic model for infectious diseases. An extended numerical method (ODE solver) is implemented on the model equations and we will present the simulations of the model for different values of fractional order to study the effect of carriers on transmission dynamics. Global dynamics of fractional model are established by using the reproduction number.

Keywords: Fractional differential equation, Numerical simulations, epidemic model, transmission dynamics

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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Finding algorithms to predict the growth of tumors has piqued the interest of researchers ever since the early days of cancer research. A number of studies were carried out as an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. Mathematical modeling can play a very important role in the prognosis of tumor process of breast cancer. However, mathematical models describe primary tumor growth and metastases growth separately. Consequently, we propose a mathematical growth model for primary tumor and primary metastases which may help to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoM-IV and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-IV which reflects relations between PT and MTS; 3) analyzing the CoM-IV scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The CoM-IV is based on exponential tumor growth model and consists of a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations; corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for primary metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for primary metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-IV model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases; b) make forecast of the period of primary metastases appearance; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of BC and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-IV: the number of doublings for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases. The CoM-IV enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-IV describes correctly primary tumor and primary distant metastases growth of IV (T1-4N0-3M1) stage with (N1-3) or without regional metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and manifestation of primary metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical modelling, primary metastases, primary tumor, survival

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Authors: Ying-Jung Hsieh, Angela S. Huang, Chu-Ming Chiu, Yu-Min Chou, Chin-Hui Yang

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Background and Objectives: Hepatitis A is primarily acquired by the fecal-oral route through person-to-person contact or ingestion of contaminated food or water. During 2010 to 2014, an average of 83 cases of locally-acquired disease was reported to Taiwan’s notifiable disease system. Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (TCDC) identified an outbreak of acute hepatitis A which began in June 2015. Of the 126 cases reported in 2015, 103 (82%) cases were reported during June–December and 95 cases (92%) of them were male. The average age of all male cases was 31 years (median, 29 years; range, 15–76 years). Among the 95 male cases, 49 (52%) were also infected with HIV, and all reported to have had sex with other men. To control this outbreak, TCDC launched a free hepatitis A vaccination program in January 2016 for close contacts of confirmed hepatitis A cases, including family members, sexual partners, and household contacts. Effect of the vaccination program was evaluated. Methods: All cases of hepatitis A reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System were included. A case of hepatitis A was defined as a locally-acquired disease in a person who had acute clinical symptoms include fever, malaise, loss of appetite, nausea or abdominal discomfort compatible with hepatitis, and tested positive for anti-HAV IgM during June 2015 to June 2016 in Taiwan. The rate of case accumulation was calculated using a simple regression model. Results: During January–June 2016, there were 466 cases of hepatitis A reported; of the 243 (52%) who were also infected with HIV, 232 (95%) had a history of having sex with men. Of the 346 cases that were followed up, 259 (75%) provided information on contacts but only 14 (5%) of them provided the name of their sexual partners. Among the 602 contacts reported, 349 (58%) were family members, 14 (2%) were sexual partners, and 239 (40%) were other household contacts. Among the 602 contacts eligible for free hepatitis A vaccination, 440 (73%) received the vaccine. There were 87 (25%) cases that refused to disclose their close contacts. The average case accumulation rate during January–June 2016 was 21.7 cases per month, which was 6.8 times compared to the average case accumulation rate during June–December 2015 of 3.2 cases per month. Conclusions: Despite vaccination program aimed to provide free hepatitis A vaccine to close contacts of hepatitis A patients, the outbreak continued and even gained momentum in transmission. Refusal by hepatitis A patients to provide names of their close contacts and rejection of contacts to take the hepatitis A vaccine may have contributed to the poor effect of the program. Targeted vaccination efforts of all MSM may be needed to control the outbreak among this population in the short term. In the long term, universal vaccination program is needed to prevent the infection of hepatitis A.

Keywords: hepatitis A, HIV, men who have sex with men, vaccination

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Authors: Zhihua Cao, Hongfei Zhao, Zhongneng Wu

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The development of polar-based agroforestry was necessary due to the influence of the timber market environment in China, which can promote the coordinated development of forestry and agriculture, and gain remarkable ecological, economic and social benefits. The main agroforestry models of the main poplar planting area in Huaibei plain and along the Yangtze River plain were carried out. 11 typical management models of poplar were selected to sum up: pure poplar forest, poplar-rape-soybean, poplar-wheat-soybean, poplar-rape-cotton, poplar-wheat, poplar-chicken, poplar-duck, poplar-sheep, poplar-Agaricus blazei, poplar-oil peony, poplar-fish, represented by M0-M10, respectively. 12 indexes related with economic, ecological and social benefits (annual average cost, net income, ratio of output to investment, payback period of investment, land utilization ratio, utilization ratio of light energy, improvement and system stability of ecological and production environment, product richness, labor capacity, cultural quality of labor force, sustainability) were screened out to carry on the comprehensive evaluation and analysis to 11 kinds of typical agroforestry models based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The results showed that the economic benefit of each agroforestry model was in the order of: M8 > M6 > M9 > M7 > M5 > M10 > M4 > M1 > M2 > M3 > M0. The economic benefit of poplar-A. blazei model was the highest (332, 800 RMB / hm²), followed by poplar-duck and poplar-oil peony model (109, 820RMB /hm², 5, 7226 RMB /hm²). The order of comprehensive benefit was: M8 > M4 > M9 > M6 > M1 > M2 > M3 > M7 > M5 > M10 > M0. The economic benefit and comprehensive benefit of each agroforestry model were higher than that of pure poplar forest. The comprehensive benefit of poplar-A. blazei model was the highest, and that of poplar-wheat model ranked second, while its economic benefit was not high. Next were poplar-oil peony and poplar-duck models. It was suggested that the model of poplar-wheat should be adopted in the plain along the Yangtze River, and the whole cycle mode of poplar-grain, popalr-A. blazei, or poplar-oil peony should be adopted in Huaibei plain, northern Anhui. Furthermore, wheat, rape, and soybean are the main crops before the stand was closed; the agroforestry model of edible fungus or Chinese herbal medicine can be carried out when the stand was closed in order to maximize the comprehensive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to provide a reference for forest farmers in the selection of poplar agroforestry model in the future and to provide the basic data for the sustainable and efficient study of poplar agroforestry in Anhui province, eastern China.

Keywords: agroforestry, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), comprehensive benefit, model, poplar

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Authors: V. Moser-Siegmeth, M. C. Gambal, M. Jelovcak, B. Prytek, I. Swietalsky, D. Würzl, C. Fida, V. Mühlegger

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Adaptability is the capacity to adjust without great difficulty to changing circumstances. Within our project, we aimed to detect whether older people living within a long-term care hospital lose the ability to adapt. Theoretical concepts are contradictory in their statements. There is also lack of evidence in the literature how the adaptability of older people changes over the time. Following research questions were generated: Are older residents of a long-term care facility able to adapt to changes within their daily routine? How long does it take for older people to adapt? The study was designed as a convergent parallel mixed method intervention study, carried out within a four-month period and took place within seven wards of a long-term care hospital. As a planned intervention, a change of meal-times was established. The inhabitants were surveyed with qualitative interviews and quantitative questionnaires and diaries before, during and after the intervention. In addition, a survey of the nursing staff was carried out in order to detect changes of the people they care for and how long it took them to adapt. Quantitative data was analysed with SPSS, qualitative data with a summarizing content analysis. The average age of the involved residents was 82 years, the average length of stay 45 months. The adaptation to new situations does not cause problems for older residents. 47% of the residents state that their everyday life has not changed by changing the meal times. 24% indicate ‘neither nor’ and only 18% respond that their daily life has changed considerably due to the changeover. The diaries of the residents, which were conducted over the entire period of investigation showed no changes with regard to increased or reduced activity. With regard to sleep quality, assessed with the Pittsburgh sleep quality index, there is little change in sleep behaviour compared to the two survey periods (pre-phase to follow-up phase) in the cross-table. The subjective sleep quality of the residents is not affected. The nursing staff points out that, with good information in advance, changes are not a problem. The ability to adapt to changes does not deteriorate with age or by moving into a long-term care facility. It only takes a few days to get used to new situations. This can be confirmed by the nursing staff. Although there are different determinants like the health status that might make an adjustment to new situations more difficult. In connection with the limitations, the small sample size of the quantitative data collection must be emphasized. Furthermore, the extent to which the quantitative and qualitative sample represents the total population, since only residents without cognitive impairments of selected units participated. The majority of the residents has cognitive impairments. It is important to discuss whether and how well the diary method is suitable for older people to examine their daily structure.

Keywords: adaptability, intervention study, mixed methods, nursing home residents

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Authors: Shamim Akhtar

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The purpose of the present research was to analyse the performance level of district administrators and school heads teachers at secondary school level. The sample of the study was head teachers and teachers of secondary schools. In survey three scales were used, two scales were for the head teachers, one five point scale was for analysing the working efficiency of educational administrators and other seven points scale was for head teachers for analysing their own performance and one another seven point rating scale similar to head teacher was for the teachers for analysing the working performance of their head teachers. The results of the head teachers’ responses revealed that the performance of their District Educational Administrators was average and for the performance efficiency of the head teachers, researcher constructed the rating scales on seven parameters of management likely academic management, personnel management, financial management, infra-structure management, linkage and interface, student’s services, and managerial excellence. Results of percentages, means, and graphical presentation on different parameters of management showed that there was an obvious difference in head teachers and teachers’ responses and head teachers probably were overestimating their efficiency; but teachers evaluated that they were performing averagely on majority statements. Results of t-test showed that there was no significance difference in the responses of rural and urban teachers but significant difference in male and female teachers’ responses showed that female head teachers were performing their responsibilities better than male head teachers in public sector schools. When efficiency of the head teachers on different parameters of management were analysed it was concluded that their efficiency on academic and personnel management was average and on financial management and on managerial excellence was highly above of average level but on others parameters like infra-structure management, linkage and interface and on students services was above of average level on most statements but highly above of average on some statements. Hence there is need to improve the working efficiency in academic management and personnel management.

Keywords: educational administration, educational management, parameters of management, education

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Authors: M. Z. Bin Mohd Ghazali, N. C. Wilson, A. F. Bin Ahmad Fuad, M. A. H. B. Musa, M. U. Mohamad Sani, F. Zulkifli, M. S. Zainal Abidin

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Physical activity levels are low in Malaysia and this study was undertaken to determine if a four week work-based intervention program would be effective in changing physical activity levels. The study was conducted in a Malaysian Government Department and had three stages: baseline data collection, four-week intervention and two-month post intervention data collection. During the intervention and two-month post intervention phases, physical activity levels (determined by a pedometer) and basic health profiles (BMI, abdominal obesity, blood pressure) were measured. Staff (58 males, 47 females) with an average age of 33 years completed baseline data collection. Pedometer steps averaged 7,102 steps/day at baseline, although male step counts were significantly higher than females (7,861 vs. 6114). Health profiles were poor: over 50% were overweight/obese (males 66%, females 40%); hypertension (males 23%, females 6%); excess waist circumference (males 52%, females 17%). While 86 staff participated in the intervention, only 49 regularly reported their steps. There was a significant increase (17%) in average daily steps from 8,965 (week 1) to 10,436 (week 4). Unfortunately, participation in the intervention program was avoided by the less healthy staff. Two months after the intervention there was no significant difference in average steps/day, despite the fact that 89% of staff reporting they planned to make long-term changes to their lifestyle. An unexpected average increase of 2kg in body weight occurred in participants, although this was less than the 5.6kg in non-participants. A number of recommendations are made for future interventions, including the conclusion that pedometers were a useful tool and popular with participants.

Keywords: pedometers, walking, health, intervention

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Authors: Fujio Akagi, Hiroaki Ito, Shin-Ichi Inage

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The aim of this study is to develop a combustion model that can be applied uniformly to laminar and turbulent premixed flames while considering the effect of the Lewis number (Le). The model considers the effect of Le on the transport equations of the reaction progress, which varies with the chemical species and temperature. The distribution of the reaction progress variable is approximated by a hyperbolic tangent function, while the other distribution of the reaction progress variable is estimated using the approximated distribution and transport equation of the reaction progress variable considering the Le. The validity of the model was evaluated under the conditions of propane with Le > 1 and methane with Le = 1 (equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 1). The estimated results were found to be in good agreement with those of previous studies under all conditions. A method of introducing a turbulence model into this model is also described. It was confirmed that conventional turbulence models can be expressed as an approximate theory of this model in a unified manner.

Keywords: combustion model, laminar flame, Lewis number, turbulent flame

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Authors: Omar Abdalla, Abdelfatah Ahmed, Ahmed Mustafa, Abdelazem Eldouma

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The purpose of this study is evaluating the effect of extremely low frequency magnetic field on Waster rats brain. The number of rats used in this study were 25, which were divided into five groups, each group containing five rats as follows: Group 1: The control group which was not exposed to energized field; Group 2: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field with an intensity of 0.6 mT (2 hours/day); Group 3: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field of 1.2 mT (2 hours/day); Group4: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field of 1.8 mT (2 hours/day); Group 5: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field of 2.4 mT (2 hours/day) and all groups were exposed for seven days, by designing a maze and calculating the time average for arriving to the decoy at special conditions. We found the time average before exposure for the all groups was G2=330 s, G3=172 s, G4=500 s and G5=174 s, respectively. We exposed all groups to ELF-MF and measured the time and we found: G2=465 s, G3=388 s, G4=501 s, and G5=442 s. It was observed that the time average increased directly with field strength. Histological samples of frontal lop of brain for all groups were taken and we found lesion, atrophy, empty vacuoles and disorder choroid plexus at frontal lope of brain. And finally we observed the disorder of choroid plexus in histological results and Alzheimer's symptoms increase when the magnetic field increases.

Keywords: nonionizing radiation, biophysics, magnetic field, shrinkage

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Authors: S. W. Chen, W. K. Lin, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, H. T. Lin, H. C. Chang, W. Y. Li

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Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 type NPP and located on the northern coast of Taiwan. First, Kuosheng NPP TRACE model were developed in this research. In order to assess the system response of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model, startup tests data were used to evaluate Kuosheng NPP TRACE model. Second, the over pressurization transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP TRACE model was performed. Besides, in order to confirm the mechanical property and integrity of fuel rods, FRAPTRAN analysis was also performed in this study.

Keywords: TRACE, safety analysis, BWR/6, FRAPTRA

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Authors: Yehjune Heo

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Fingerprint Anti-Spoofing approaches have been actively developed and applied in real-world applications. One of the main problems for Fingerprint Anti-Spoofing is not robust to unseen samples, especially in real-world scenarios. A possible solution will be to generate artificial, but realistic fingerprint samples and use them for training in order to achieve good generalization. This paper contains experimental and comparative results with currently popular GAN based methods and uses realistic synthesis of fingerprints in training in order to increase the performance. Among various GAN models, the most popular StyleGAN is used for the experiments. The CNN models were first trained with the dataset that did not contain generated fake images and the accuracy along with the mean average error rate were recorded. Then, the fake generated images (fake images of live fingerprints and fake images of spoof fingerprints) were each combined with the original images (real images of live fingerprints and real images of spoof fingerprints), and various CNN models were trained. The best performances for each CNN model, trained with the dataset of generated fake images and each time the accuracy and the mean average error rate, were recorded. We observe that current GAN based approaches need significant improvements for the Anti-Spoofing performance, although the overall quality of the synthesized fingerprints seems to be reasonable. We include the analysis of this performance degradation, especially with a small number of samples. In addition, we suggest several approaches towards improved generalization with a small number of samples, by focusing on what GAN based approaches should learn and should not learn.

Keywords: anti-spoofing, CNN, fingerprint recognition, GAN

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Authors: Mohammadali Abedini Sanigy, Jiangang Fei

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In this paper, a mathematical optimization model was developed to maximize the profit in a vegetable production planning problem. It serves as a decision support system that assists farmers in land allocation to crops and harvest scheduling decisions. The developed model can handle different rotation rules in two consecutive cycles of production, which is a common practice in organic production system. Moreover, different production methods of the same crop were considered in the model formulation. The main strength of the model is that it is not restricted to predetermined production periods, which makes the planning more flexible. The model is classified as a mixed integer programming (MIP) model and formulated in PYOMO -a Python package to formulate optimization models- and solved via Gurobi and CPLEX optimizer packages. The model was tested with secondary data from 'Australian vegetable growing farms', and the results were obtained and discussed with the computational test runs. The results show that the model can successfully provide reliable solutions for real size problems.

Keywords: crop rotation, harvesting, mathematical model formulation, vegetable production

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Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

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In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, gaussian mixture models, learning motion patterns, tracked robots for urban search and rescue

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Authors: Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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The present study deals with the selection of the most suitable quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) models which should be used in prediction of the retention behavior of basic, neutral, acidic and phenolic pesticides which belong to different classes: fungicides, herbicides, metabolites, insecticides and plant growth regulators. Sum of ranking differences (SRD) approach can give a different point of view on selection of the most consistent QSRR model. SRD approach can be applied not only for ranking of the QSRR models, but also for detection of similarity or dissimilarity among them. Applying the SRD analysis, the most similar models can be found easily. In this study, selection of the best model was carried out on the basis of the reference ranking (“golden standard”) which was defined as the row average values of logarithm of retention time (logtr) defined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Also, SRD analysis based on experimental logtr values as reference ranking revealed similar grouping of the established QSRR models already obtained by hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA).

Keywords: chemometrics, chromatography, pesticides, sum of ranking differences

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Authors: H. Al-Hajeri

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The computation of the effectiveness of turbulence enhancement surface features, such as ribs as means of promoting mixing and hence heat transfer, has attracted the continued attention of the engineering community. In this study, the simulation of a three-dimensional cooling passage is carried out employing a number of turbulence models including Durbin model. The cooling passage consists of a square section duct whose upper and lower surfaces feature staggered cuboid ribs. The main objective of this paper is to provide comparisons of the performance of the v2-f model against other established turbulence models as implemented in the commercial CFD code Ansys Fluent. The present study demonstrates that the v2-f model can successfully capture the isothermal air flow phenomena in flow over obstacles.

Keywords: CFD, cooling passage, Durbin model, turbulence model

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Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

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Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

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Authors: Chunhua Liao, Jinfei Wang, Bo Shan, Yang Song, Yongjun He, Taifeng Dong

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Winter wheat is one of the main crops in Canada. Forecasting of within-field variability of yield in winter wheat at the early stages is essential for precision farming. However, the crop yield modelling based on high spatial resolution satellite data is generally affected by the lack of continuous satellite observations, resulting in reducing the generalization ability of the models and increasing the difficulty of crop yield forecasting at the early stages. In this study, the correlations between Sentinel-2 data (vegetation indices and reflectance) and yield data collected by combine harvester were investigated and a generalized multivariate linear regression (MLR) model was built and tested with data acquired in different years. It was found that the four-band reflectance (blue, green, red, near-infrared) performed better than their vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, WDRVI and OSAVI) in wheat yield prediction. The optimum phenological stage for wheat yield prediction with highest accuracy was at the growing stages from the end of the flowering to the beginning of the filling stage. The best MLR model was therefore built to predict wheat yield before harvest using Sentinel-2 data acquired at the end of the flowering stage. Further, to improve the ability of the yield prediction at the early stages, three simple unsupervised domain adaptation (DA) methods were adopted to transform the reflectance data at the early stages to the optimum phenological stage. The winter wheat yield prediction using multiple vegetation indices showed higher accuracy than using single vegetation index. The optimum stage for winter wheat yield forecasting varied with different fields when using vegetation indices, while it was consistent when using multispectral reflectance and the optimum stage for winter wheat yield prediction was at the end of flowering stage. The average testing RMSE of the MLR model at the end of the flowering stage was 604.48 kg/ha. Near the booting stage, the average testing RMSE of yield prediction using the best MLR was reduced to 799.18 kg/ha when applying the mean matching domain adaptation approach to transform the data to the target domain (at the end of the flowering) compared to that using the original data based on the models developed at the booting stage directly (“MLR at the early stage”) (RMSE =1140.64 kg/ha). This study demonstrated that the simple mean matching (MM) performed better than other DA methods and it was found that “DA then MLR at the optimum stage” performed better than “MLR directly at the early stages” for winter wheat yield forecasting at the early stages. The results indicated that the DA had a great potential in near real-time crop yield forecasting at the early stages. This study indicated that the simple domain adaptation methods had a great potential in crop yield prediction at the early stages using remote sensing data.

Keywords: wheat yield prediction, domain adaptation, Sentinel-2, within-field scale

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Authors: Maba Boniface Matadi

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This paper analyses the model of Malaria endemic from the point of view of the group theoretic approach. The study identified new independent variables that lead to the transformation of the nonlinear model. Furthermore, corresponding determining equations were constructed, and new symmetries were found. As a result, the findings of the study demonstrate of the integrability of the model to present an invariant solution for the Malaria model.

Keywords: group theory, lie symmetry, invariant solutions, malaria

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Authors: Yi-Guang Li, Suresh Sampath

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Gas turbine performance degrades over time, and the degradation is greatly affected by environmental, ambient, and operating conditions. The engines may degrade slowly under favorable conditions and result in a waste of engine life if a scheduled maintenance scheme is followed. They may also degrade fast and fail before a scheduled overhaul if the conditions are unfavorable, resulting in serious secondary damage, loss of engine availability, and increased maintenance costs. To overcome these problems, gas turbine owners are gradually moving from scheduled maintenance to condition-based maintenance, where condition monitoring is one of the key supporting technologies. This paper presents an integrated adaptive GPA diagnostics and performance monitoring system developed at Cranfield University for gas turbine gas path condition monitoring. It has the capability to predict the performance degradation of major gas path components of gas turbine engines, such as compressors, combustors, and turbines, using gas path measurement data. It is also able to predict engine key performance parameters for condition monitoring, such as turbine entry temperature that cannot be directly measured. The developed technology has been implemented into digital twin computer Software, Pythia, to support the condition monitoring of gas turbine engines. The capabilities of the integrated GPA condition monitoring system are demonstrated in three test cases using a model gas turbine engine similar to the GE aero-derivative LM2500 engine widely used in power generation and marine propulsion. It shows that when the compressor of the model engine degrades, the Adaptive GPA is able to predict the degradation and the changing engine performance accurately using gas path measurements. Such a presented technology and software are generic, can be applied to different types of gas turbine engines, and provide crucial engine health and performance parameters to support condition monitoring and condition-based maintenance.

Keywords: gas turbine, adaptive GPA, performance, diagnostics, condition monitoring

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Authors: Rishabh Ambavanekar

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Expressive Aphasia (EA) is an oral disability, common among stroke victims, in which the Broca’s area of the brain is damaged, interfering with verbal communication abilities. EA currently has no technological solutions and its only current viable solutions are inefficient or only available to the affluent. This prompts the need for an affordable, innovative solution to facilitate recovery and assist in speech generation. This project proposes a novel concept: using a wearable low-cost electroencephalography (EEG) device-based brain-computer interface (BCI) to translate a user’s inner dialogue into words. A low-cost EEG device was developed and found to be 10 to 100 times less expensive than any current EEG device on the market. As part of the BCI, a machine learning (ML) model was developed and trained using the EEG data. Two stages of testing were conducted to analyze the effectiveness of the device: a proof-of-concept and a final solution test. The proof-of-concept test demonstrated an average accuracy of above 90% and the final solution test demonstrated an average accuracy of above 75%. These two successful tests were used as a basis to demonstrate the viability of BCI research in developing lower-cost verbal communication devices. Additionally, the device proved to not only enable users to verbally communicate but has the potential to also assist in accelerated recovery from the disorder.

Keywords: neurotechnology, brain-computer interface, neuroscience, human-machine interface, BCI, HMI, aphasia, verbal disability, stroke, low-cost, machine learning, ML, image recognition, EEG, signal analysis

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Authors: Javier López

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This Paper presents the evaluation model designed for the virtual education branch of The “Universidad Manuela Beltrán, Bogotá-Colombia”. This was the result of a research, developed as a case study, which had three stages: Document review, observation, and a perception survey for teachers. In the present model, the evaluation is a cross-cutting issue to the educational process. Therefore, it consists in a group of actions and guidelines which lead to analyze the student’s learning process from the admission, during the academic training, and to the graduation. This model contributes to the evaluation components which might interest other educational institutions or might offer methodological guidance to consolidate an own model

Keywords: model, evaluation, virtual education, learning process

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Authors: Remo Waser, Simon Maranda, Anastasia Stamatiou, Ludger J. Fischer, Joerg Worlitschek

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In latent heat storage, a phase change material (PCM) is used to store thermal energy. The heat transfer rate during solidification is limited and considered as a key challenge in the development of latent heat storages. Thus, finned heat exchangers (HEX) are often utilized to increase the heat transfer rate of the storage system. In this study, a new modeling approach to calculating the heat transfer rate in latent thermal energy storages with complex HEX geometries is presented. This model allows for an optimization of the HEX design in terms of costs and thermal performance of the system. Modeling solidification processes requires the calculation of time-dependent heat conduction with moving boundaries. Commonly used computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods enable the analysis of the heat transfer in complex HEX geometries. If applied to the entire storage, the drawback of this approach is the high computational effort due to small time steps and fine computational grids required for accurate solutions. An alternative to describe the process of solidification is the so-called temperature-based approach. In order to minimize the computational effort, a quasi-stationary assumption can be applied. This approach provides highly accurate predictions for tube heat exchangers. However, it shows unsatisfactory results for more complex geometries such as finned tube heat exchangers. The presented simulation model uses a temporal and spatial discretization of heat exchanger tube. The spatial discretization is based on the smallest possible symmetric segment of the HEX. The heat flow in each segment is calculated using finite volume method. Since the heat transfer fluid temperature can be derived using energy conservation equations, the boundary conditions at the inner tube wall is dynamically updated for each time step and segment. The model allows a prediction of the thermal performance of latent thermal energy storage systems using complex HEX geometries with considerably low computational effort.

Keywords: modelling of solidification, finned tube heat exchanger, latent thermal energy storage

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Authors: Kalpana Rajouriya, Ajay Taneja

Abstract:

Particulates are ubiquitous in the air environment and cause serious threats to human beings, such as lung cancer, COPD, and Asthma. Particulates mainly arise from industrial effluent, vehicular emission, and other anthropogenic activities. In the glass industrial city Firozabad, real-time monitoring of size segregated Particulate Matter (PM) and black carbon was done by Aerosol Black Carbon Detector (ABCD) and GRIMM portable aerosol Spectrometer at two different sites in which one site is urban and another is rural. The average mass concentration of size segregated PM during the study period (March & April 2022) was recorded as PM10 (223.73 g/m⁻³), PM5.0 (44.955 g/m⁻³), PM2.5 (59.275 g/m⁻³), PM1.0 (33.02 g/m⁻³), PM0.5 (2.05 g/m⁻³), and PM0.25 (2.99 g/m⁻³). The highest concentration of BC was found in Urban due to the emissions from diesel engines and wood burning, while NO2 was highest at the rural sites. The average concentrations of PM10 (6.08 and 2.73 times) PM2.5 exceeded the NAAQS and WHO guidelines. Particulate Matter deposition and health risk assessment was done by MPPD and USEPA model to know about the particulate matter toxicity in industrial residents. Health risk assessment results showed that Children are most likely to be affected by exposure of PM10 and PM2.5 and may have various non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic diseases. Deposition results inferred that the sensitive exposed population, especially 9 years old children, have high PM deposition as well as visualization and may be at risk of developing health-related problems from exposure to size-segregated PM. They will be discussed during presentation.

Keywords: particulate matter, black carbon, NO2, deposition of PM, health risk

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Authors: L. Sun, O. Bloom, K. Anderson

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The medial and lateral sural artery perforator flaps (MSAP and LSAP, respectively) are two recently described flaps that are less commonly used in lower limb trauma reconstructive surgeries compared to flaps such as the anterolateral thigh (ALT) flap or the gastrocnemius flap. The LSAP flap has several theoretical benefits over the MSAP, including the ability to be sensate and being more easily manoeuvred into position as a local flap for coverage of lateral knee or leg defects. It is less commonly used in part due to a lack of documented studies of the anatomical reliability of the perforator, and an unquantified average length of the pedicle used for microsurgical anastomosis (if used as a free flap) or flap rotation (if used as a pedicled flap). It has been shown to have significantly lower donor site morbidity compared to other flaps such as the ALT, due to the decreased need for intramuscular dissection and resulting in less muscle loss at the donor site. 11 cadaveric lower limbs were dissected, with a mean of 1.6 perforators per leg, with an average pedicle length of 45mm to the sural artery and 70mm to the popliteal artery. While the majority of perforating arteries lay close to the midline (average of 19mm lateral to the midline), there were patients whose artery was significantly lateral and would have been likely injured by the initial incision during an operation. Adding to the literature base of documented LSAP dissections provides a greater understanding of the anatomical basis of these perforator flaps, and the authors hope this will establish them as a more commonly used and discussed option when managing complicated lower limb trauma requiring soft tissue reconstruction.

Keywords: cadaveric, dissection, lateral, perforator flap, sural artery, surface anatomy

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Authors: Kamal, J. P. Narayan

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In the present wok the effects of basin-shape-ratio on the frequency content and spectral amplitudes of the basin-generated surface waves and the associated spatial variation of ground motion amplification and differential ground motion in a 3D semi-spherical basin has been studied. A recently developed 3D fourth-order spatial accurate time-domain finite-difference (FD) algorithm based on the parsimonious staggered-grid approximation of the 3D viscoelastic wave equations was used to estimate seismic responses. The simulated results demonstrated the increase of both the frequency content and the spectral amplitudes of the basin-generated surface waves and the duration of ground motion in the basin with the increase of shape-ratio of semi-spherical basin. An increase of the average spectral amplification (ASA), differential ground motion (DGM) and the average aggravation factor (AAF) towards the centre of the semi-spherical basin was obtained.

Keywords: 3D viscoelastic simulation, basin-generated surface waves, basin-shape-ratio effects, average spectral amplification, aggravation factors and differential ground motion

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Authors: Mazwane S., Makhura M. N., Ginege A.

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Digitalization in South Africa has received considerable attention from policymakers. The support for the development of the digital economy by the South African government has been demonstrated through the enactment of various national policies and strategies. This study sought to develop an index for agricultural digitalization by applying composite confirmatory analysis (CCA). Another aim was to determine the factors that affect the development of digitalization in PLAS farms. Data on the indicators of the three dimensions of digitalization were collected from 300 Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy (PLAS) farms in South Africa using semi-structured questionnaires. Confirmatory composite analysis (CCA) was employed to reduce the items into three digitalization dimensions and ultimately to a digitalization index. Standardized digitalization index scores were extracted and fitted to a linear regression model to determine the factors affecting digitalization development. The results revealed that the model shows practical validity and can be used to measure digitalization development as measures of fit (geodesic distance, standardized root mean square residual, and squared Euclidean distance) were all below their respective 95%quantiles of bootstrap discrepancies (HI95 values). Therefore, digitalization is an emergent variable that can be measured using CCA. The average level of digitalization in PLAS farms was 0.2 and varied significantly across provinces. The factors that significantly influence digitalization development in PLAS land reform farms were age, gender, farm type, network type, and cellular data type. This should enable researchers and policymakers to understand the level of digitalization and patterns of development, as well as correctly attribute digitalization development to the contributing factors.

Keywords: agriculture, digitalization, confirmatory composite model, land reform, proactive land acquisition strategy, South Africa

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Authors: T. H. N. Nguyen, A. Khodan, M. Amamra, J-V. Vignes, A. Kanaev

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The ultraporous nanofibrous alumina (NOA, Al2O3·nH2O) was synthesized by oxidation of laminated aluminium plates through a liquid mercury-silver layer in a humid atmosphere ~80% at 25°C. The material has an extremely high purity (99%), porosity (90%) and specific area (300 m2/g). The subsequent annealing of raw NOA permits obtaining pure transition phase (γ and θ) nanostructured materials. In this combination, we report on chemical, structural and phase transformations of pure and modified NOA by an impregnation of trimethylethoxysilane (TMES) and tetraethoxysilane (TEOS) during thermal annealing in the temperature range between 20 and 1650°C. The mass density, specific area, average diameter and specific area are analysed. The 3D model of pure NOA monoliths and silica modified NOA is proposed, which successfully describes the evolution of specific area, mass density and phase transformations. Activation energies of the mass transport in two regimes of surface diffusion and bulk sintering were obtained based on this model. We conclude about a common origin of modifications of the NOA morphology, chemical composition and phase transition.

Keywords: nanostructured materials, alumina (Al₂O₃), morphology, phase transitions

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Authors: Massy Guillaume

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Introduction: The implementation of creativity in educational policies or curricula raises several issues, including the evaluation of creativity and the means to do so. This doctoral research focuses on the appropriation and transposition of creativity assessment models by future teachers. Our objective is to identify the elements of the models that are most transferable to practice in order to improve their implementation in the students' curriculum while seeking to create a new model for assessing creativity in the school environment. Methods: In order to meet our objective, this preliminary quantitative exploratory study by questionnaire was conducted at two points in the participants' training: at the beginning of the training module and throughout the practical work. The population is composed of 40 people of diverse origins with an average age of 26 (s:8,623) years. In order to be as close as possible to our research objective and to test our questionnaires, we set up a pre-test phase during the spring semester of 2022. Results: The results presented focus on aspects of the OECD Creative Competencies Assessment Model. Overall, 72% of participants support the model's focus on skill levels as appropriate for the school context. More specifically, the data indicate that the separation of production and process in the rubric facilitates observation by the assessor. From the point of view of transposing the grid into teaching practice, the participants emphasised that production is easier to plan and observe in students than in the process. This difference is reinforced by a lack of knowledge about certain concepts such as innovation or risktaking in schools. Finally, the qualitative results indicate that the addition of multiple levels of competencies to the OECD rubric would allow for better implementation in the classroom. Conclusion: The identification by the students of the elements allowing the evaluation of creativity in the school environment generates an innovative approach to the training contents. These first data, from the test phase of our research, demonstrate the difficulty that exists between the implementation of an evaluation model in a training program and its potential transposition by future teachers.

Keywords: creativity, evaluation, schooling, training

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Authors: Wanessa G. Oliveira, Fernando C. Capovilla

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Capovilla and Raphael’s Libras Dictionary documents a corpus of 4,200 Brazilian Sign Language (Libras) signs. Duduchi and Capovilla’s software SignTracking permits users to retrieve signs even when ignoring the gloss corresponding to it and to discover the meaning of all 4,200 signs sign simply by clicking on graphic menus of the sign characteristics (phonemes). Duduchi and Capovilla have discovered that the ease with which any given sign can be retrieved is an inverse function of the average popularity of its component phonemes. Thus, signs composed of rare (distinct) phonemes are easier to retrieve than are those composed of common phonemes. SignTracking offers a means of computing the average popularity of the phonemes that make up each one of 4,200 signs. It provides a precise measure of the degree of ease with which signs can be retrieved, and sign meanings can be discovered. Duduchi and Capovilla’s logarithmic model proved valid: The degree with which any given sign can be retrieved is an inverse function of the arithmetic mean of the logarithm of the popularity of each component phoneme. Capovilla, Raphael and Mauricio’s New Libras Dictionary documents a corpus of 10,400 Libras signs. The present analysis revealed Libras DNA structure by mapping the incidence of 501 sign phonemes resulting from the layered distribution of five parameters: 163 handshape phonemes (CherEmes-ManusIculi); 34 finger shape phonemes (DactilEmes-DigitumIculi); 55 hand placement phonemes (ArtrotoToposEmes-ArticulatiLocusIculi); 173 movement dimension phonemes (CinesEmes-MotusIculi) pertaining to direction, frequency, and type; and 76 Facial Expression phonemes (MascarEmes-PersonalIculi).

Keywords: Brazilian sign language, lexical retrieval, libras sign, sign phonology

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Authors: L. S. Zavodna, J. Zavodny Pospisil

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The aim of this paper is to identify the factors for sustainability in the accommodation sector. Although sustainability is a current trend in tourism, not many facilities know how to apply the concept in practice. This paper presents a model for the implementation of sustainability in hotels, hostels, campgrounds, or other facilities. First, there are identified sections of each accommodation facility, which can contribute to sustainability. Furthermore, concrete steps are presented to transfer this model into reality.

Keywords: accommodation sector, model, sustainable tourism, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 299