Search results for: 3D plant data
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 27277

Search results for: 3D plant data

17737 BIM Modeling of Site and Existing Buildings: Case Study of ESTP Paris Campus

Authors: Rita Sassine, Yassine Hassani, Mohamad Al Omari, Stéphanie Guibert

Abstract:

Building Information Modelling (BIM) is the process of creating, managing, and centralizing information during the building lifecycle. BIM can be used all over a construction project, from the initiation phase to the planning and execution phases to the maintenance and lifecycle management phase. For existing buildings, BIM can be used for specific applications such as lifecycle management. However, most of the existing buildings don’t have a BIM model. Creating a compatible BIM for existing buildings is very challenging. It requires special equipment for data capturing and efforts to convert these data into a BIM model. The main difficulties for such projects are to define the data needed, the level of development (LOD), and the methodology to be adopted. In addition to managing information for an existing building, studying the impact of the built environment is a challenging topic. So, integrating the existing terrain that surrounds buildings into the digital model is essential to be able to make several simulations as flood simulation, energy simulation, etc. Making a replication of the physical model and updating its information in real-time to make its Digital Twin (DT) is very important. The Digital Terrain Model (DTM) represents the ground surface of the terrain by a set of discrete points with unique height values over 2D points based on reference surface (e.g., mean sea level, geoid, and ellipsoid). In addition, information related to the type of pavement materials, types of vegetation and heights and damaged surfaces can be integrated. Our aim in this study is to define the methodology to be used in order to provide a 3D BIM model for the site and the existing building based on the case study of “Ecole Spéciale des Travaux Publiques (ESTP Paris)” school of engineering campus. The property is located on a hilly site of 5 hectares and is composed of more than 20 buildings with a total area of 32 000 square meters and a height between 50 and 68 meters. In this work, the campus precise levelling grid according to the NGF-IGN69 altimetric system and the grid control points are computed according to (Réseau Gédésique Français) RGF93 – Lambert 93 french system with different methods: (i) Land topographic surveying methods using robotic total station, (ii) GNSS (Global Network Satellite sytem) levelling grid with NRTK (Network Real Time Kinematic) mode, (iii) Point clouds generated by laser scanning. These technologies allow the computation of multiple building parameters such as boundary limits, the number of floors, the floors georeferencing, the georeferencing of the 4 base corners of each building, etc. Once the entry data are identified, the digital model of each building is done. The DTM is also modeled. The process of altimetric determination is complex and requires efforts in order to collect and analyze multiple data formats. Since many technologies can be used to produce digital models, different file formats such as DraWinG (DWG), LASer (LAS), Comma-separated values (CSV), Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) and ReViT (RVT) will be generated. Checking the interoperability between BIM models is very important. In this work, all models are linked together and shared on 3DEXPERIENCE collaborative platform.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital terrain model, existing buildings, interoperability

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17736 Increasing Access to Upper Limb Reconstruction in Cervical Spinal Cord Injury

Authors: Michelle Jennett, Jana Dengler, Maytal Perlman

Abstract:

Background: Cervical spinal cord injury (SCI) is a devastating event that results in upper limb paralysis, loss of independence, and disability. People living with cervical SCI have identified improvement of upper limb function as a top priority. Nerve and tendon transfer surgery has successfully restored upper limb function in cervical SCI but is not universally used or available to all eligible individuals. This exploratory mixed-methods study used an implementation science approach to better understand these factors that influence access to upper limb reconstruction in the Canadian context and design an intervention to increase access to care. Methods: Data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information’s Discharge Abstracts Database (CIHI-DAD) and the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS) were used to determine the annual rate of nerve transfer and tendon transfer surgeries performed in cervical SCI in Canada over the last 15 years. Semi-structured interviews informed by the consolidated framework for implementation research (CFIR) were used to explore Ontario healthcare provider knowledge and practices around upper limb reconstruction. An inductive, iterative constant comparative process involving descriptive and interpretive analyses was used to identify themes that emerged from the data. Results: Healthcare providers (n = 10 upper extremity surgeons, n = 10 SCI physiatrists, n = 12 physical and occupational therapists working with individuals with SCI) were interviewed about their knowledge and perceptions of upper limb reconstruction and their current practices and discussions around upper limb reconstruction. Data analysis is currently underway and will be presented. Regional variation in rates of upper limb reconstruction and trends over time are also currently being analyzed. Conclusions: Utilization of nerve and tendon transfer surgery to improve upper limb reconstruction in Canada remains low. There are a complex array of interrelated individual-, provider- and system-level barriers that prevent individuals with cervical SCI from accessing upper limb reconstruction. In order to offer equitable access to care, a multi-modal approach addressing current barriers is required.

Keywords: cervical spinal cord injury, nerve and tendon transfer surgery, spinal cord injury, upper extremity reconstruction

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17735 Introduce a New Model of Anomaly Detection in Computer Networks Using Artificial Immune Systems

Authors: Mehrshad Khosraviani, Faramarz Abbaspour Leyl Abadi

Abstract:

The fundamental component of the computer network of modern information society will be considered. These networks are connected to the network of the internet generally. Due to the fact that the primary purpose of the Internet is not designed for, in recent decades, none of these networks in many of the attacks has been very important. Today, for the provision of security, different security tools and systems, including intrusion detection systems are used in the network. A common diagnosis system based on artificial immunity, the designer, the Adhasaz Foundation has been evaluated. The idea of using artificial safety methods in the diagnosis of abnormalities in computer networks it has been stimulated in the direction of their specificity, there are safety systems are similar to the common needs of m, that is non-diagnostic. For example, such methods can be used to detect any abnormalities, a variety of attacks, being memory, learning ability, and Khodtnzimi method of artificial immune algorithm pointed out. Diagnosis of the common system of education offered in this paper using only the normal samples is required for network and any additional data about the type of attacks is not. In the proposed system of positive selection and negative selection processes, selection of samples to create a distinction between the colony of normal attack is used. Copa real data collection on the evaluation of ij indicates the proposed system in the false alarm rate is often low compared to other ir methods and the detection rate is in the variations.

Keywords: artificial immune system, abnormality detection, intrusion detection, computer networks

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17734 Categorization of Cattle Farmers Based on Market Participation in Adamawa State, Nigeria

Authors: Mohammed Ibrahim Girei

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Adamawa state is one the major producers of both crop and animals in Nigeria. Agricultural production serves as the major means livelihood of the people in the state. However, the agricultural activities of the farmers in the state are at subsistence level. However integration of these small scale farmers in local, national and international market is paramount importance. The paper was designed to categorize farmers based on market participation among the cattle farmers in Adamawa state, Nigeria. The multistage sampling procedure was employed. To achieve this procedure, structured questionnaires were used to collect data from 400 respondents. The data were analyzed using the descriptive statistics. The result revealed that the majority of market participants were net sellers (78.51 %) (Sales greater than purchase), net buyers were (purchase greater than sales) 12.95 % and only 9% were autarkic (sales equal purchase). The study recommends that Government should provide more effective security services in cattle farming communities, which is very important as the market participants in the study area were net sellers (producers), it will help in addressing the problem of cattle rustling and promote more investment in cattle industry. There is a need to establish a standard cattle market, veterinary services and grazing reserves in the area so that to facilitate the cattle production and marketing system in the area and to meet up with the challenging of livestock development as a result of rapid human population growth in developing countries like Nigeria.

Keywords: categories, cattle, farmers, market, participation

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17733 Engaging Girls in 'Learn Science by Doing' as Strategy for Enhanced Learning Outcome at the Junior High School Level in Nigeria

Authors: Stella Y. Erinosho

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In an attempt to impact on girls’ interest in science, an instructional package on ‘Learn Science by Doing (LSD)’ was developed to support science teachers in teaching integrated science at the junior secondary level in Nigeria. LSD provides an instructional framework aimed at actively engaging girls in beginners’ science through activities that are discovery-oriented and allow for experiential learning. The goal of this study was to show the impact of application of LSD on girls’ performance and interest in science. The major hypothesis that was tested in the study was that students would exhibit higher learning outcomes (achievement and attitude) in science as effect of exposure to LSD instructional package. A quasi-experimental design was adopted, incorporating four all-girls schools. Three of the schools (comprising six classes) were randomly designated as experimental and one as the control. The sample comprised 357 girls (275 experimental and 82 control) and nine science teachers drawn from the experimental schools. The questionnaire was designed to gather data on students’ background characteristics and their attitude toward science while the cognitive outcomes were measured using tests, both within a group and between groups, the girls who had exposure to LSD exhibited improved cognitive outcomes and more positive attitude towards science compared with those who had conventional teaching. The data are consistent with previous studies indicating that interactive learning activities increase student performance and interest.

Keywords: active learning, school science, teaching and learning, Nigeria

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17732 Analysys of Some Solutions to Protect the Tombolo of Giens

Authors: Yves Lacroix, Van Van Than, Didier Léandri, Pierre Liardet

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The western Tombolo of the Giens peninsula in southern France, known as Almanarre beach, is subject to coastal erosion. We are trying to use computer simulation in order to propose solutions to stop this erosion. Our aim was first to determine the main factors for this erosion and successfully apply a coupled hydro-sedimentological numerical model based on observations and measurements that have been performed on the site for decades. We have gathered all available information and data about waves, winds, currents, tides, bathymetry, coastal line, and sediments concerning the site. These have been divided into two sets: one devoted to calibrating a numerical model using Mike 21 software, the other to serve as a reference in order to numerically compare the present situation to what it could be if we implemented different types of underwater constructions. This paper presents the first part of the study: selecting and melting different sources into a coherent data basis, identifying the main erosion factors, and calibrating the coupled software model against the selected reference period. Our results bring calibration of the numerical model with good fitting coefficients. They also show that the winter South-Western storm events conjugated to depressive weather conditions constitute a major factor of erosion, mainly due to wave impact in the northern part of the Almanarre beach. Together, current and wind impact is shown negligible.

Keywords: Almanarre beach, coastal erosion, hydro-sedimentological, numerical model

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17731 Real-Time Gesture Recognition System Using Microsoft Kinect

Authors: Ankita Wadhawan, Parteek Kumar, Umesh Kumar

Abstract:

Gesture is any body movement that expresses some attitude or any sentiment. Gestures as a sign language are used by deaf people for conveying messages which helps in eliminating the communication barrier between deaf people and normal persons. Nowadays, everybody is using mobile phone and computer as a very important gadget in their life. But there are some physically challenged people who are blind/deaf and the use of mobile phone or computer like device is very difficult for them. So, there is an immense need of a system which works on body gesture or sign language as input. In this research, Microsoft Kinect Sensor, SDK V2 and Hidden Markov Toolkit (HTK) are used to recognize the object, motion of object and human body joints through Touch less NUI (Natural User Interface) in real-time. The depth data collected from Microsoft Kinect has been used to recognize gestures of Indian Sign Language (ISL). The recorded clips are analyzed using depth, IR and skeletal data at different angles and positions. The proposed system has an average accuracy of 85%. The developed Touch less NUI provides an interface to recognize gestures and controls the cursor and click operation in computer just by waving hand gesture. This research will help deaf people to make use of mobile phones, computers and socialize among other persons in the society.

Keywords: gesture recognition, Indian sign language, Microsoft Kinect, natural user interface, sign language

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17730 Detection of Internal Mold Infection of Intact Tomatoes by Non-Destructive, Transmittance VIS-NIR Spectroscopy

Authors: K. Petcharaporn

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The external characteristics of tomatoes, such as freshness, color and size are typically used in quality control processes for tomatoes sorting. However, the internal mold infection of intact tomato cannot be sorted based on a visible assessment and destructive method alone. In this study, a non-destructive technique was used to predict the internal mold infection of intact tomatoes by using transmittance visible and near infrared (VIS-NIR) spectroscopy. Spectra for 200 samples contained 100 samples for normal tomatoes and 100 samples for mold infected tomatoes were acquired in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. This data was used in conjunction with partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) method to generate a classification model for tomato quality between groups of internal mold infection of intact tomato samples. For this task, the data was split into two groups, 140 samples were used for a training set and 60 samples were used for a test set. The spectra of both normal and internally mold infected tomatoes showed different features in the visible wavelength range. Combined spectral pretreatments of standard normal variate transformation (SNV) and smoothing (Savitzky-Golay) gave the optimal calibration model in training set, 85.0% (63 out of 71 for the normal samples and 56 out of 69 for the internal mold samples). The classification accuracy of the best model on the test set was 91.7% (29 out of 29 for the normal samples and 26 out of 31 for the internal mold tomato samples). The results from this experiment showed that transmittance VIS-NIR spectroscopy can be used as a non-destructive technique to predict the internal mold infection of intact tomatoes.

Keywords: tomato, mold, quality, prediction, transmittance

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17729 Simultaneous Measurement of Wave Pressure and Wind Speed with the Specific Instrument and the Unit of Measurement Description

Authors: Branimir Jurun, Elza Jurun

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The focus of this paper is the description of an instrument called 'Quattuor 45' and defining of wave pressure measurement. Special attention is given to measurement of wave pressure created by the wind speed increasing obtained with the instrument 'Quattuor 45' in the investigated area. The study begins with respect to theoretical attitudes and numerous up to date investigations related to the waves approaching the coast. The detailed schematic view of the instrument is enriched with pictures from ground plan and side view. Horizontal stability of the instrument is achieved by mooring which relies on two concrete blocks. Vertical wave peak monitoring is ensured by one float above the instrument. The synthesis of horizontal stability and vertical wave peak monitoring allows to create a representative database for wave pressure measuring. Instrument ‘Quattuor 45' is named according to the way the database is received. Namely, the electronic part of the instrument consists of the main chip ‘Arduino', its memory, four load cells with the appropriate modules and the wind speed sensor 'Anemometers'. The 'Arduino' chip is programmed to store two data from each load cell and two data from the anemometer on SD card each second. The next part of the research is dedicated to data processing. All measured results are stored automatically in the database and after that detailed processing is carried out in the MS Excel. The result of the wave pressure measurement is synthesized by the unit of measurement kN/m². This paper also suggests a graphical presentation of the results by multi-line graph. The wave pressure is presented on the left vertical axis, while the wind speed is shown on the right vertical axis. The time of measurement is displayed on the horizontal axis. The paper proposes an algorithm for wind speed measurements showing the results for two characteristic winds in the Adriatic Sea, called 'Bura' and 'Jugo'. The first of them is the northern wind that reaches high speeds, causing low and extremely steep waves, where the pressure of the wave is relatively weak. On the other hand, the southern wind 'Jugo' has a lower speed than the northern wind, but due to its constant duration and constant speed maintenance, it causes extremely long and high waves that cause extremely high wave pressure.

Keywords: instrument, measuring unit, waves pressure metering, wind seed measurement

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17728 Cross-Tier Collaboration between Preservice and Inservice Language Teachers in Designing Online Video-Based Pragmatic Assessment

Authors: Mei-Hui Liu

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This paper reports the progression of language teachers’ learning to assess students’ speech act performance via online videos in a cross-tier professional growth community. This yearlong research project collected multiple data sources from several stakeholders, including 12 preservice and 4 inservice English as a foreign language (EFL) teachers, 4 English professionals, and 82 high school students. Data sources included surveys, (focus group) interviews, online reflection journals, online video-based assessment items/scores, and artifacts related to teacher professional learning. The major findings depicted the effectiveness of this proposed learning module on language teacher development in pragmatic assessment as well as its impact on student learning experience. All these teachers appreciated this professional learning experience which enhanced their knowledge in assessing students’ pragmalinguistic and sociopragmatic performance in an English speech act (i.e., making refusals). They learned how to design online video-based assessment items by attending to specific linguistic structures, semantic formula, and sociocultural issues. They further became aware of how to sharpen pragmatic instructional skills in the near future after putting theories into online assessment and related classroom practices. Additionally, data analysis revealed students’ achievement in and satisfaction with the designed online assessment. Yet, during the professional learning process most participating teachers encountered challenges in reaching a consensus on selecting appropriate video clips from available sources to present the sociocultural values in English-speaking refusal contexts. Also included was to construct test items which could testify the influence of interlanguage transfer on students’ pragmatic performance in various conversational scenarios. With pedagogical implications and research suggestions, this study adds to the increasing amount of research into integrating preservice and inservice EFL teacher education in pragmatic assessment and relevant instruction. Acknowledgment: This research project is sponsored by the Ministry of Science and Technology in the Republic of China under the grant number of MOST 106-2410-H-029-038.

Keywords: cross-tier professional development, inservice EFL teachers, pragmatic assessment, preservice EFL teachers, student learning experience

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17727 Cryptocurrency Forensics: Analysis on Bitcoin E-Wallet from Computer Source Evidence

Authors: Muhammad Nooraiman bin Noorashid, Mohd Sharizuan bin Mohd Omar, Mohd Zabri Adil bin Talib, Aswami Fadillah bin Mohd Ariffin

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Nowadays cryptocurrency has become a global phenomenon known to most people. People using this alternative digital money to do a transaction in many ways (e.g. Used for online shopping, wealth management, and fundraising). However, this digital asset also widely used in criminal activities since its use decentralized control as opposed to centralized electronic money and central banking systems and this makes a user, who used this currency invisible. The high-value exchange of these digital currencies also has been a target to criminal activities. The cryptocurrency crimes have become a challenge for the law enforcement to analyze and to proof the evidence as criminal devices. In this paper, our focus is more on bitcoin cryptocurrency and the possible artifacts that can be obtained from the different type of digital wallet, which is software and browser-based application. The process memory and physical hard disk are examined with the aims of identifying and recovering potential digital evidence. The stage of data acquisition divided by three states which are the initial creation of the wallet, transaction that consists transfer and receiving a coin and the last state is after the wallet is being deleted. Findings from this study suggest that both data from software and browser type of wallet process memory is a valuable source of evidence, and many of the artifacts found in process memory are also available from the application and wallet files on the client computer storage.

Keywords: cryptocurrency, bitcoin, digital wallet, digital forensics

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17726 Incidence of Iron Deficiency Anemia Among the Children with Febrile Seizures

Authors: Samina Nazli, Nadia Qamar, Quratulain, Akasha, Saman Jamal

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Objective: The objective is to determine the frequency of iron deficiency anemia among children having febrile seizures. A descriptive Cross-Sectional Study was done in the Pediatric Unit of Allama Iqbal Memorial Teaching Hospital Sialkot from September 2020 to February 2021. Material & Methods: A total of 70 children were studied aged six months to 10 years, with either gender presenting with febrile seizures. All data of the patients was documented, including demographic data like age, gender, residential area, educational status, socioeconomic status and clinical findings at the time of presentation like fever, fits and duration of symptoms etc. Blood hemoglobin and ferritin levels were tested for each patient to evaluate iron deficiency anemia. Results: There were 65.7% male and 34.3% female cases in this study. The age range of the patients was 6 months to 10 years, with a mean age of 4.36 ± 2.71 years. Most of the children (60%) were below three years of age. Most children belonged to low and middle socioeconomic status with a frequency of 42.8% and 45.7%, respectively. Iron deficiency anemia was found in 38.6% of cases. The majority of the mothers were illiterate (65%). There were 44.3% cases from rural areas and 55.7% from urban areas. Conclusion: Iron deficiency anemia is a common problem among children with febrile seizures, younger than 03 years and belonging to rural areas. Illiterate mothers are an important risk factor for iron deficiency anemia in their children.

Keywords: febrile seizure, iron deficiency anemia, illetrate mother, low scioeconomic status, febrile siezure

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17725 Immunity Boosting and Balanced Diet Prevents Viral Infections with Special Emphasis on COVID-19

Authors: K. R. Padma, K. R. Don

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Background and aims: A balanced nutritional diet is essential in maintaining immunity and for deterrence as well as desisting of viral infections. Nevertheless, currently, very less information is available online regarding nutrition consumption during the period of coronavirus infection, i.e. (COVID-19). In our systematic review article, we portrayed and aimed to evaluate evidence from various previous clinical trials, which was based on nutritional interventions for viral diseases and given a concise overview. Methods: A systematic search was carried out employing 3 key medical databases: PubMed®, Web of Science®, and SciVerse Scopus®. Studies were performed and evaluated suitable if clinical trials in humans, appropriate immunological parameters on viral and respiratory infections, need to perform. Basic Clinical trials on nutritional vitamins, minerals, nutraceuticals as well as probiotics were included. Results: We have explored 10 review articles and extracted data for our study. A total of > 2000 participants were included and excluded several other trace elements as well as various vitamins, but in inclusion criteria mainly concentrated on those who have shown propitious immune-modulatory effects against viral respiratory infections. Conclusions: We have encapsulated the potential health benefits of some minerals, vitamins, as well as certain designer foods, nutraceuticals, and probiotics in viral infections. Based on this nutritional interventional strategy available from our present data, it could be promising to abstain and reduce the COVID-19 infection replication and boost our immunity to fight against the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, immunity, vitamins, nutritional intervention strategy

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17724 A Geoprocessing Tool for Early Civil Work Notification to Optimize Fiber Optic Cable Installation Cost

Authors: Hussain Adnan Alsalman, Khalid Alhajri, Humoud Alrashidi, Abdulkareem Almakrami, Badie Alguwaisem, Said Alshahrani, Abdullah Alrowaished

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Most of the cost of installing a new fiber optic cable is attributed to civil work-trenching-cost. In many cases, information technology departments receive project proposals in their eReview system, but not all projects are visible to everyone. Additionally, if there was no IT scope in the proposed project, it is not likely to be visible to IT. Sometimes it is too late to add IT scope after project budgets have been finalized. Finally, the eReview system is a repository of PDF files for each project, which commits the reviewer to manual work and limits automation potential. This paper details a solution to address the late notification of the eReview system by integrating IT Sites GIS data-sites locations-with land use permit (LUP) data-civil work activity, which is the first step before securing the required land usage authorizations and means no detailed designs for any relevant project before an approved LUP request. To address the manual nature of eReview system, both the LUP System and IT data are using ArcGIS Desktop, which enables the creation of a geoprocessing tool with either Python or Model Builder to automate finding and evaluating potentially usable LUP requests to reduce trenching between two sites in need of a new FOC. To achieve this, a weekly dump was taken from LUP system production data and loaded manually onto ArcMap Desktop. Then a custom tool was developed in model builder, which consisted of a table of two columns containing all the pairs of sites in need of new fiber connectivity. The tool then iterates all rows of this table, taking the sites’ pair one at a time and finding potential LUPs between them, which satisfies the provided search radius. If a group of LUPs was found, an iterator would go through each LUP to find the required civil work between the two sites and the LUP Polyline feature and the distance through the line, which would be counted as cost avoidance if an IT scope had been added. Finally, the tool will export an Excel file named with sites pair, and it will contain as many rows as the number of LUPs, which met the search radius containing trenching and pulling information and cost. As a result, multiple projects have been identified – historical, missed opportunity, and proposed projects. For the proposed project, the savings were about 75% ($750,000) to install a new fiber with the Euclidean distance between Abqaiq GOSP2 and GOSP3 DCOs. In conclusion, the current tool setup identifies opportunities to bundle civil work on single projects at a time and between two sites. More work is needed to allow the bundling of multiple projects between two sites to achieve even more cost avoidance in both capital cost and carbon footprint.

Keywords: GIS, fiber optic cable installation optimization, eliminate redundant civil work, reduce carbon footprint for fiber optic cable installation

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17723 The “Bright Side” of COVID-19: Effects of Livestream Affordances on Consumer Purchase Willingness: Explicit IT Affordances Perspective

Authors: Isaac Owusu Asante, Yushi Jiang, Hailin Tao

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Live streaming marketing, the new electronic commerce element, became an optional marketing channel following the COVID-19 pandemic. Many sellers have leveraged the features presented by live streaming to increase sales. Studies on live streaming have focused on gaming and consumers’ loyalty to brands through live streaming, using interview questionnaires. This study, however, was conducted to measure real-time observable interactions between consumers and sellers. Based on the affordance theory, this study conceptualized constructs representing the interactive features and examined how they drive consumers’ purchase willingness during live streaming sessions using 1238 datasets from Amazon Live, following the manual observation of transaction records. Using structural equation modeling, the ordinary least square regression suggests that live viewers, new followers, live chats, and likes positively affect purchase willingness. The Sobel and Monte Carlo tests show that new followers, live chats, and likes significantly mediate the relationship between live viewers and purchase willingness. The study introduces a new way of measuring interactions in live streaming commerce and proposes a way to manually gather data on consumer behaviors in live streaming platforms when the application programming interface (API) of such platforms does not support data mining algorithms.

Keywords: livestreaming marketing, live chats, live viewers, likes, new followers, purchase willingness

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17722 Human Resource Management Challenges in Age of Artificial Intelligence: Methodology of Case Analysis

Authors: Olga Leontjeva

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In the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI), some organization management approaches need to be adapted or changed. Human Resource Management (HRM) is a part of organization management that is under the managers' focus nowadays, because AI integration into organization activities brings some HRM-connected challenges. The topic became more significant during the crises of many organizations in the world caused by the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). The paper presents an approach, which will be used for the study that is going to be focused on the various case analysis. The author of the future study will analyze the cases of the organizations from Latvia and Spain that are grouped by the size, type of activity and area of business. The information for the cases will be collected through structured interviews and online surveys. The main result presented is the questionnaire developed that will be used for the study as well as the definition and description of sampling. The first round of the survey will be based on convenience sampling that is the main limitation of the study. To conclude, the approach developed will help to collect valid data if the organizations participating in the survey are ready to share their cases in depth, so the researchers could draw the right conclusions and generalize compared organizations’ cases. The questionnaire developed for the survey is applicable for both written online data collection as well as for the interviews. The case analysis will help to identify some HRM challenges that are connected to AI integration into organization activities such as management of different generation employees and their training peculiarities.

Keywords: age of artificial intelligence, case analysis, generation Y and Z employees, human resource management

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17721 Lived Experiences and Perspectives of Adult Survivors of Incest-Related Childhood Sexual Abuse

Authors: Varsha Puri, Sharon Hudson, Ian Kim

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Background: Incest-related childhood sexual abuse (IRCSA) is challenging to study due to the shame and secrecy experienced by its survivors. Ramifications of IRCSA worsen when it is unidentified, and interventions are not made. IRCSA perspectives are essential for future prevention and intervention strategies. However, there is limited understanding of this population’s experiences, perspectives, and long-term struggles. To date, research for IRCSA has utilized data from treatment programs and qualitative research with cohorts of 10-20 people, much of the data is from 10-40 years prior. Methods. In June 2018, an anonymous online survey was posted to multiple social media sites (e.g., Facebook IRCSA groups) and sexual abuse resource sites. Survey responses were collected for a year. The survey collected non-identifying demographics, IRCSA experiences, and outcomes data. Results: We obtained 1310 completed surveys. Demographics of all ages, racial backgrounds, financial backgrounds, and genders were obtained; the majority identified as white (81%) and female (76%). Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) started before the age of 6 in 49% and was endured for more than one year in 84% of respondents, and 39% reported ten or more years of abuse. CSA by multiple perpetrators occurred in 58%, while 8% had ten or more perpetrators. CSA by perpetrators under 21 years old was reported by 46%. Female perpetrators were reported by 28% of respondents. Fathers were the highest reported sexual abusers at 60%, and mothers were reported at 17%. Only 16% reported that at least one of their perpetrators was prosecuted for sexual abuse of a minor. Respondents confirmed that 54% of the time, they informed an adult of the abuse; only 2% agreed that “an intervention was made by the family that protected me.” A majority reported that IRCSA has negatively impacted their intimate/sexual relationships (96%) and mental health (96%). A majority reported negative impacts on biological family relationships (88%), physical health (73%), finances (59%), educational achievement (57%), and employment (56%). When asked about suffering from addiction, 85% of respondents answered yes. Prevention strategies selected most by respondents include early school education around CSA prevention (67%), removing the statute of limitations for reporting CSA (69%), and improved laws protecting IRCSA survivors (63%). Conclusion: The data document that IRCSA can be pervasive, and the dearth of intervention and support for survivors have major lasting impacts. Survivors have a unique and valuable perspective on what interventions are needed to prevent IRCSA and support survivors; their voice has long been unheard in crafting prevention and intervention policies and services. These results thus provide an important call to action from these critical stakeholders. Pediatricians should recognize that perpetrators can be pediatric patients, women, and parents. Pediatricians can advocate for more early CSA prevention education and policy changes that remove the statute of limitations for reporting CSA.

Keywords: incest, childhood sexual abuse, incest-related childhood sexual abuse, incest survivor

Procedia PDF Downloads 80
17720 Spiritual Symbols of African Fruits as Responsive Catalysts for Naturopathy

Authors: Orogun Daniel Oghenekevhwe

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Africa being an agrarian continent has an abundance of fruits that are both nutritional and medicinal. Regardless of the abundance of these healing elements, Africa leads the statistics of poor healthcare globally. Among others, there are two noticeable challenges in the healthcare system which are ‘Poor access and high cost of medical healthcare’. The effects of both the access and economic implications are (1) Low responsiveness and (2) High mortality rate. While the United Nations and the global health community continue to work towards reduced mortality rates and poor responsiveness to healthcare and wellness, this paper investigates how some Africans use the spiritual symbols of African fruits as responsive catalysts to embrace naturopathy thereby reducing the effects and impacts of poor healthcare challenges in Africa. The main argument is whether there are links between spiritual symbols and fruits that influence Africans' response to naturopathy and low-cost healthcare. Following that is the question of how medical healthcare responds to such development. Bitter Kola (Garcinia) is the case study fruit, and Sunnyside in Pretoria, South Africa, has been spotted as one of the high-traffic selling points of herbal fruits. A mixed research method is applicable with an expected 20 Quantitative data respondents among sellers and nutritionists and 50 Qualitative Data respondents among consumers. Based on the results, it should be clear how spirituality contributes to alternative healthcare and how it can be further encouraged to bridge the gap between the high demand and low supply of healthcare in Africa and beyond.

Keywords: spiritual symbols, naturopathy, African fruits, spirituality, healthcare

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17719 Access to the Community and Needed Supports among People with Physical Disabilities Receiving Long-Term Services and Supports in the United States

Authors: Stephanie Giordano, Eric Lam, Rosa Plasencia

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An important piece of active aging is ensuring people have the right support to meet individual needs. Using NCI-AD data, we will look at measures of satisfaction with community access and needed services among people with physical disabilities receiving LTSS in the US. National Core Indicators—Aging and Disabilities (NCI-AD) is a voluntary effort by State Medicaid, aging, and disability agencies across the US to measure and track their own performance. NCI-AD uses a standardized survey – the Adult Consumer Survey (ACS), to hear directly from people receiving services about the quality of services and supports they receive. Data from the 2018-19 ACS found that compared to people without a physical disability, those with a physical disability were more likely to make choices about the services they receive, including when and how often they receive those services. Yet people with a physical disability were less likely to report they get enough assistance with everyday activities (e.g., shopping, housework, and taking medications) and self-care (e.g., dressing or bathing) and more likely to report that services and supports do not fully meet their needs and goals. A further breakdown by age shows that people 40-65 years old with a physical disability experienced even greater barriers to being as active in the community as they would like to be, indicating a need to better support people as they age with or into a disability. We will explore how these and other outcomes were affected by COVID-19, take a closer look at outcomes by demographics (e.g., race/ethnicity, gender, and mental health diagnoses) and discuss implications on the future needs of service systems.

Keywords: quality-of-life, long-term services and supports, person-centered, community

Procedia PDF Downloads 91
17718 On Consolidated Predictive Model of the Natural History of Breast Cancer Considering Primary Tumor and Primary Distant Metastases Growth

Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

Abstract:

Finding algorithms to predict the growth of tumors has piqued the interest of researchers ever since the early days of cancer research. A number of studies were carried out as an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. Mathematical modeling can play a very important role in the prognosis of tumor process of breast cancer. However, mathematical models describe primary tumor growth and metastases growth separately. Consequently, we propose a mathematical growth model for primary tumor and primary metastases which may help to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoM-IV and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-IV which reflects relations between PT and MTS; 3) analyzing the CoM-IV scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The CoM-IV is based on exponential tumor growth model and consists of a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations; corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for primary metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for primary metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-IV model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases; b) make forecast of the period of primary metastases appearance; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of BC and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-IV: the number of doublings for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases. The CoM-IV enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-IV describes correctly primary tumor and primary distant metastases growth of IV (T1-4N0-3M1) stage with (N1-3) or without regional metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and manifestation of primary metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical modelling, primary metastases, primary tumor, survival

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17717 Entrepreneurship, Institutional Quality, and Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence from Nigeria

Authors: Cleopatra Oluseye Ibukun

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Following the endogenous growth theory, entrepreneurship has been considered pivotal to economic growth and development, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. Meanwhile, efforts to reduce unemployment has yielded minimal result with over 36% of youth unemployment and a dwindling economic growth despite the country’s natural and human resource endowment. This study, therefore, investigates the effects of entrepreneurship and institutional quality on economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria over the period 1996 to 2018. The data is obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), and the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators (WGI). The study period is guided by the availability of data, and the study employs both descriptive and econometric techniques of analysis (specifically, the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Approach). This approach is preferable given that the variables are stationary at the first difference, while the bounds test suggests the existence of co-integration among the variables. By implication, an increase in entrepreneurship significantly improves economic growth, and it reduces unemployment in both the short-run and the long-run. Besides, institutional quality proxied by the control of corruption, political stability, and government effectiveness significantly mediates the interaction between entrepreneurship and macroeconomic performance. This study concludes that improved institutional quality enhances the effect of entrepreneurship on economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria, and it recommends an improvement in Nigeria’s institutional quality because it can jeopardise or augment the effect of entrepreneurship on macroeconomic performance.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, institutional quality, unemployment, gross domestic product, Nigeria

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17716 A Machine Learning Approach for Earthquake Prediction in Various Zones Based on Solar Activity

Authors: Viacheslav Shkuratskyy, Aminu Bello Usman, Michael O’Dea, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

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This paper examines relationships between solar activity and earthquakes; it applied machine learning techniques: K-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, and long short-term memory network. Data from the SILSO World Data Center, the NOAA National Center, the GOES satellite, NASA OMNIWeb, and the United States Geological Survey were used for the experiment. The 23rd and 24th solar cycles, daily sunspot number, solar wind velocity, proton density, and proton temperature were all included in the dataset. The study also examined sunspots, solar wind, and solar flares, which all reflect solar activity and earthquake frequency distribution by magnitude and depth. The findings showed that the long short-term memory network model predicts earthquakes more correctly than the other models applied in the study, and solar activity is more likely to affect earthquakes of lower magnitude and shallow depth than earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger with intermediate depth and deep depth.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, long short-term memory network, earthquakes, solar activity, sunspot number, solar wind, solar flares

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17715 Numerical Simulation of a Point Absorber Wave Energy Converter Using OpenFOAM in Indian Scenario

Authors: Pooja Verma, Sumana Ghosh

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There is a growing need for alternative way of power generation worldwide. The reason can be attributed to limited resources of fossil fuels, environmental pollution, increasing cost of conventional fuels, and lower efficiency of conversion of energy in existing systems. In this context, one of the potential alternatives for power generation is wave energy. However, it is difficult to estimate the amount of electrical energy generation in an irregular sea condition by experiment and or analytical methods. Therefore in this work, a numerical wave tank is developed using the computational fluid dynamics software Open FOAM. In this software a specific utility known as waves2Foam utility is being used to carry out the simulation work. The computational domain is a tank of dimension: 5m*1.5m*1m with a floating object of dimension: 0.5m*0.2m*0.2m. Regular waves are generated at the inlet of the wave tank according to Stokes second order theory. The main objective of the present study is to validate the numerical model against existing experimental data. It shows a good matching with the existing experimental data of floater displacement. Later the model is exploited to estimate energy extraction due to the movement of such a point absorber in real sea conditions. Scale down the wave properties like wave height, wave length, etc. are used as input parameters. Seasonal variations are also considered.

Keywords: OpenFOAM, numerical wave tank, regular waves, floating object, point absorber

Procedia PDF Downloads 342
17714 Role of Pulp Volume Method in Assessment of Age and Gender in Lucknow, India, an Observational Study

Authors: Anurag Tripathi, Sanad Khandelwal

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Age and gender determination are required in forensic for victim identification. There is secondary dentine deposition throughout life, resulting in decreased pulp volume and size. Evaluation of pulp volume using Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT)is a noninvasive method to evaluate the age and gender of an individual. The study was done to evaluate the efficacy of pulp volume method in the determination of age and gender.Aims/Objectives: The study was conducted to estimate age and determine sex by measuring tooth pulp volume with the help of CBCT. An observational study of one year duration on CBCT data of individuals was conducted in Lucknow. Maxillary central incisors (CI) and maxillary canine (C) of the randomly selected samples were assessed for measurement of pulp volume using a software. Statistical analysis: Chi Square Test, Arithmetic Mean, Standard deviation, Pearson’s Correlation, Linear & Logistic regression analysis. Results: The CBCT data of Ninety individuals with age range between 18-70 years was evaluated for pulp volume of central incisor and canine (CI & C). The Pearson correlation coefficient between the tooth pulp volume (CI & C) and chronological age suggested that pulp volume decreased with age. The validation of the equations for sex determination showed higher prediction accuracy for CI (56.70%) and lower for C (53.30%).Conclusion: Pulp volume obtained from CBCT is a reliable indicator for age estimation and gender prediction.

Keywords: forensic, dental age, pulp volume, cone beam computed tomography

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
17713 Variability of Hydrological Modeling of the Blue Nile

Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

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The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, climate change, hydrological modeling, watershed

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17712 Preservice EFL Teachers in a Blended Professional Development Program: Learning to Teach Speech Acts

Authors: Mei-Hui Liu

Abstract:

This study examines the effectiveness of a blended professional development program on preservice EFL (English as a foreign language) teachers’ learning to teach speech acts with the advent of Information and Communication Technology, researchers and scholars underscore the significance of integrating online and face-to-face learning opportunities in the teacher education field. Yet, a paucity of evidence has been documented to investigate the extent to which such a blended professional learning model may impact real classroom practice and student learning outcome. This yearlong project involves various stakeholders, including 25 preservice teachers, 5 English professionals, and 45 secondary school students. Multiple data sources collected are surveys, interviews, reflection journals, online discussion messages, artifacts, and discourse completion tests. Relying on the theoretical lenses of Community of Inquiry, data analysis depicts the nature and process of preservice teachers’ professional development in this blended learning community, which triggers and fosters both face-to-face and synchronous/asynchronous online interactions among preservice teachers and English professionals (i.e., university faculty and in-service teachers). Also included is the student learning outcome after preservice teachers put what they learn from the support community into instructional practice. Pedagogical implications and research suggestions are further provided based on the research findings and limitations.

Keywords: blended professional development, preservice EFL teachers, speech act instruction, student learning outcome

Procedia PDF Downloads 209
17711 Times2D: A Time-Frequency Method for Time Series Forecasting

Authors: Reza Nematirad, Anil Pahwa, Balasubramaniam Natarajan

Abstract:

Time series data consist of successive data points collected over a period of time. Accurate prediction of future values is essential for informed decision-making in several real-world applications, including electricity load demand forecasting, lifetime estimation of industrial machinery, traffic planning, weather prediction, and the stock market. Due to their critical relevance and wide application, there has been considerable interest in time series forecasting in recent years. However, the proliferation of sensors and IoT devices, real-time monitoring systems, and high-frequency trading data introduce significant intricate temporal variations, rapid changes, noise, and non-linearities, making time series forecasting more challenging. Classical methods such as Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing aim to extract pre-defined temporal variations, such as trends and seasonality. While these methods are effective for capturing well-defined seasonal patterns and trends, they often struggle with more complex, non-linear patterns present in real-world time series data. In recent years, deep learning has made significant contributions to time series forecasting. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and their variants, such as Long short-term memory (LSTMs) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), have been widely adopted for modeling sequential data. However, they often suffer from the locality, making it difficult to capture local trends and rapid fluctuations. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), particularly Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), leverage convolutional layers to capture temporal dependencies by applying convolutional filters along the temporal dimension. Despite their advantages, TCNs struggle with capturing relationships between distant time points due to the locality of one-dimensional convolution kernels. Transformers have revolutionized time series forecasting with their powerful attention mechanisms, effectively capturing long-term dependencies and relationships between distant time points. However, the attention mechanism may struggle to discern dependencies directly from scattered time points due to intricate temporal patterns. Lastly, Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) have also been employed, with models like N-BEATS and LightTS demonstrating success. Despite this, MLPs often face high volatility and computational complexity challenges in long-horizon forecasting. To address intricate temporal variations in time series data, this study introduces Times2D, a novel framework that parallelly integrates 2D spectrogram and derivative heatmap techniques. The spectrogram focuses on the frequency domain, capturing periodicity, while the derivative patterns emphasize the time domain, highlighting sharp fluctuations and turning points. This 2D transformation enables the utilization of powerful computer vision techniques to capture various intricate temporal variations. To evaluate the performance of Times2D, extensive experiments were conducted on standard time series datasets and compared with various state-of-the-art algorithms, including DLinear (2023), TimesNet (2023), Non-stationary Transformer (2022), PatchTST (2023), N-HiTS (2023), Crossformer (2023), MICN (2023), LightTS (2022), FEDformer (2022), FiLM (2022), SCINet (2022a), Autoformer (2021), and Informer (2021) under the same modeling conditions. The initial results demonstrated that Times2D achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting tasks. Furthermore, the generality of the Times2D framework allows it to be applied to various tasks such as time series imputation, clustering, classification, and anomaly detection, offering potential benefits in any domain that involves sequential data analysis.

Keywords: derivative patterns, spectrogram, time series forecasting, times2D, 2D representation

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17710 The Cleaning Equipment to Prevents Dust Diffusion of Bus Air Filters

Authors: Jiraphorn Satechan, Thanaphon Khamthieng, Warunee Phanwong

Abstract:

This action research aimed at designing and developing the cleaning equipment to preventing dust diffusion of bus air filter. Quantitative and qualitative data collection methods were used to conduct data from October 1st, 2018 to September 30th, 2019. All of participants were male (100.0%) with aged 40- 49 years and 57.15%, of them finish bachelor degree. 71.43% of them was a driver and 57.15% of them had the working experience between 10 and 15 years. Research revealed that the participants assessed the quality of the bus air filter cleaning equipment for preventing dust diffusion at a moderate level (σ= 0.29), and 71.43 of them also suggested the development methods in order to improve the quality of bus air filters cleaning equipment as follows: 1) to install the circuit breaker for cutting the electricity and controlling the on-off of the equipment and to change the motor to the DC system, 2) should install the display monitor for wind pressure and electricity system as well as to install the air pressure gauge, 3) should install the tank lid lock for preventing air leakage and dust diffusion by increasing the blowing force and sucking power, 4) to stabilize the holding points for preventing the filter shaking while rotating and blowing for cleaning and to reduce the rotation speed in order to allow the filters to move slowly for the air system to blow for cleaning more thoroughly, 5) the amount of dust should be measured before and after cleaning and should be designed the cleaning equipment to be able to clean with a variety of filters, and sizes. Moreover, the light-weight materials should be used to build the cleaning equipment and the wheels should be installed at the base of the equipment in order to make it easier to move.

Keywords: Cleaning Equipment, Bus Air Filters, Preventing Dust Diffusion, Innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 93
17709 PaSA: A Dataset for Patent Sentiment Analysis to Highlight Patent Paragraphs

Authors: Renukswamy Chikkamath, Vishvapalsinhji Ramsinh Parmar, Christoph Hewel, Markus Endres

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Given a patent document, identifying distinct semantic annotations is an interesting research aspect. Text annotation helps the patent practitioners such as examiners and patent attorneys to quickly identify the key arguments of any invention, successively providing a timely marking of a patent text. In the process of manual patent analysis, to attain better readability, recognising the semantic information by marking paragraphs is in practice. This semantic annotation process is laborious and time-consuming. To alleviate such a problem, we proposed a dataset to train machine learning algorithms to automate the highlighting process. The contributions of this work are: i) we developed a multi-class dataset of size 150k samples by traversing USPTO patents over a decade, ii) articulated statistics and distributions of data using imperative exploratory data analysis, iii) baseline Machine Learning models are developed to utilize the dataset to address patent paragraph highlighting task, and iv) future path to extend this work using Deep Learning and domain-specific pre-trained language models to develop a tool to highlight is provided. This work assists patent practitioners in highlighting semantic information automatically and aids in creating a sustainable and efficient patent analysis using the aptitude of machine learning.

Keywords: machine learning, patents, patent sentiment analysis, patent information retrieval

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17708 Valorization of Surveillance Data and Assessment of the Sensitivity of a Surveillance System for an Infectious Disease Using a Capture-Recapture Model

Authors: Jean-Philippe Amat, Timothée Vergne, Aymeric Hans, Bénédicte Ferry, Pascal Hendrikx, Jackie Tapprest, Barbara Dufour, Agnès Leblond

Abstract:

The surveillance of infectious diseases is necessary to describe their occurrence and help the planning, implementation and evaluation of risk mitigation activities. However, the exact number of detected cases may remain unknown whether surveillance is based on serological tests because identifying seroconversion may be difficult. Moreover, incomplete detection of cases or outbreaks is a recurrent issue in the field of disease surveillance. This study addresses these two issues. Using a viral animal disease as an example (equine viral arteritis), the goals were to establish suitable rules for identifying seroconversion in order to estimate the number of cases and outbreaks detected by a surveillance system in France between 2006 and 2013, and to assess the sensitivity of this system by estimating the total number of outbreaks that occurred during this period (including unreported outbreaks) using a capture-recapture model. Data from horses which exhibited at least one positive result in serology using viral neutralization test between 2006 and 2013 were used for analysis (n=1,645). Data consisted of the annual antibody titers and the location of the subjects (towns). A consensus among multidisciplinary experts (specialists in the disease and its laboratory diagnosis, epidemiologists) was reached to consider seroconversion as a change in antibody titer from negative to at least 32 or as a three-fold or greater increase. The number of seroconversions was counted for each town and modeled using a unilist zero-truncated binomial (ZTB) capture-recapture model with R software. The binomial denominator was the number of horses tested in each infected town. Using the defined rules, 239 cases located in 177 towns (outbreaks) were identified from 2006 to 2013. Subsequently, the sensitivity of the surveillance system was estimated as the ratio of the number of detected outbreaks to the total number of outbreaks that occurred (including unreported outbreaks) estimated using the ZTB model. The total number of outbreaks was estimated at 215 (95% credible interval CrI95%: 195-249) and the surveillance sensitivity at 82% (CrI95%: 71-91). The rules proposed for identifying seroconversion may serve future research. Such rules, adjusted to the local environment, could conceivably be applied in other countries with surveillance programs dedicated to this disease. More generally, defining ad hoc algorithms for interpreting the antibody titer could be useful regarding other human and animal diseases and zoonosis when there is a lack of accurate information in the literature about the serological response in naturally infected subjects. This study shows how capture-recapture methods may help to estimate the sensitivity of an imperfect surveillance system and to valorize surveillance data. The sensitivity of the surveillance system of equine viral arteritis is relatively high and supports its relevance to prevent the disease spreading.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, capture-recapture, epidemiology, equine viral arteritis, infectious disease, seroconversion, surveillance

Procedia PDF Downloads 282