Search results for: interlaminar damage model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 18276

Search results for: interlaminar damage model

17376 An Improved Model of Estimation Global Solar Irradiation from in situ Data: Case of Oran Algeria Region

Authors: Houcine Naim, Abdelatif Hassini, Noureddine Benabadji, Alex Van Den Bossche

Abstract:

In this paper, two models to estimate the overall monthly average daily radiation on a horizontal surface were applied to the site of Oran (35.38 ° N, 0.37 °W). We present a comparison between the first one is a regression equation of the Angstrom type and the second model is developed by the present authors some modifications were suggested using as input parameters: the astronomical parameters as (latitude, longitude, and altitude) and meteorological parameters as (relative humidity). The comparisons are made using the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean percentage error (MPE), and mean absolute bias error (MABE). This comparison shows that the second model is closer to the experimental values that the model of Angstrom.

Keywords: meteorology, global radiation, Angstrom model, Oran

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17375 Expert Review on Conceptual Design Model of Assistive Courseware for Low Vision (AC4LV) Learners

Authors: Nurulnadwan Aziz, Ariffin Abdul Mutalib, Siti Mahfuzah Sarif

Abstract:

This paper reports an ongoing project regarding the development of Conceptual Design Model of Assistive Courseware for Low Vision (AC4LV) learners. Having developed the intended model, it has to be validated prior to producing it as guidance for the developers to develop an AC4LV. This study requires two phases of validation process which are through expert review and prototyping method. This paper presents a part of the validation process which is findings from experts review on Conceptual Design Model of AC4LV which has been carried out through a questionnaire. Results from 12 international and local experts from various respectable fields in Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) were discussed and justified. In a nutshell, reviewed Conceptual Design Model of AC4LV was formed. Future works of this study are to validate the reviewed model through prototyping method prior to testing it to the targeted users.

Keywords: assistive courseware, conceptual design model, expert review, low vision learners

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17374 Water Balance Components under Climate Change in Croatia

Authors: Jelena Bašić, Višnjica Vučetić, Mislav Anić, Tomislav Bašić

Abstract:

Lack of precipitation combined with high temperatures causes great damage to the agriculture and economy in Croatia. Therefore, it is important to understand water circulation and balance. We decided to gain a better insight into the spatial distribution of water balance components (WBC) and their long-term changes in Croatia. WBC are precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture content (S), runoff (RO), recharge (R), and soil moisture loss (L). Since measurements of the mentioned components in Croatia are very rare, the Palmer model has been applied to estimate them. We refined method by setting into the account the corrective factor to include influence effects of the wind as well as a maximum soil capacity for specific soil types. We will present one hundred years’ time series of PET and ET showing the trends at few meteorological stations and a comparison of components of two climatological periods. The meteorological data from 109 stations have been used for the spatial distribution map of the WBC of Croatia.

Keywords: croatia, long-term trends, the palmer method, water balance components

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17373 Early Detection of Lymphedema in Post-Surgery Oncology Patients

Authors: Sneha Noble, Rahul Krishnan, Uma G., D. K. Vijaykumar

Abstract:

Breast-Cancer related Lymphedema is a major problem that affects many women. Lymphedema is the swelling that generally occurs in the arms or legs caused by the removal of or damage to lymph nodes as a part of cancer treatment. Treating it at the earliest possible stage is the best way to manage the condition and prevent it from leading to pain, recurrent infection, reduced mobility, and impaired function. So, this project aims to focus on the multi-modal approaches to identify the risks of Lymphedema in post-surgical oncology patients and prevent it at the earliest. The Kinect IR Sensor is utilized to capture the images of the body and after image processing techniques, the region of interest is obtained. Then, performing the voxelization method will provide volume measurements in pre-operative and post-operative periods in patients. The formation of a mathematical model will help in the comparison of values. Clinical pathological data of patients will be investigated to assess the factors responsible for the development of lymphedema and its risks.

Keywords: Kinect IR sensor, Lymphedema, voxelization, lymph nodes

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17372 Ethylene Response Factor BnERF from Brassica napus L. Enhances Submergence Tolerance and Alleviates the Oxidative Damage Caused by Submergence in Arabidopsis thaliana

Authors: Sanxiong Fu, Yanyan Lv, Song Chen, Wei Zhang, Cunkou Qi

Abstract:

Ethylene response factor proteins are known to play an important role in regulating a variety of stress responses in plants, but their exact functions in submergence stress are not completely understood. In this study, we isolated BnERF from Brassica napus L. to study the function of BnERF in submergence tolerance. The expression of BnERF gene in Brassica napus L. and the expression of antioxidant enzyme genes in transgenic Arabidopsis were analyzed by Quantitative RT-PCR. It was found that expression of BnERF is apparently induced by submergence in Brassica napus L. and overexpression of BnERF in Arabidopsis increases the tolerance level to submergence and oxidative stress. Histochemical method detected lower level of H2O2, O2•− and malondialdehyde (MDA) in the transgenic Arabidopsis. Compared to wild type, transgenic lines also have higher soluble sugar content and higher activity of antioxidant enzymes, which helps protect the plants against the oxidative damage caused by submergence. It was concluded that BnERF can increase the tolerance of plants to submergence stress and BnERF might be involved in regulating soluble sugar content and the antioxidant system in the defense against submergence stress.

Keywords: antioxidant enzyme, Arabidopsis, ethylene response factor, submergence

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17371 Application of Model Tree in the Prediction of TBM Rate of Penetration with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique

Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar

Abstract:

The rate of penetration is (RoP) one of the vital factors in the cost and time of tunnel boring projects; therefore, predicting it can lead to a substantial increase in the efficiency of the project. RoP is heavily dependent geological properties of the project site and TBM properties. In this study, 151-point data from Queen’s water tunnel is collected, which includes unconfined compression strength, peak slope index, angle with weak planes, and distance between planes of weaknesses. Since the size of the data is small, it was observed that it is imbalanced. To solve that problem synthetic minority oversampling technique is utilized. The model based on the model tree is proposed, where each leaf consists of a support vector machine model. Proposed model performance is then compared to existing empirical equations in the literature.

Keywords: Model tree, SMOTE, rate of penetration, TBM(tunnel boring machine), SVM

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17370 An Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Human Muscle

Authors: Sina Saadati, Mohammadreza Razzazi

Abstract:

In this article, we have tried to present an agent-based model of human muscle. A suitable model of muscle is necessary for the analysis of mankind's movements. It can be used by clinical researchers who study the influence of motion sicknesses, like Parkinson's disease. It is also useful in the development of a prosthesis that receives the electromyography signals and generates force as a reaction. Since we have focused on computational efficiency in this research, the model can compute the calculations very fast. As far as it concerns prostheses, the model can be known as a charge-efficient method. In this paper, we are about to illustrate an agent-based model. Then, we will use it to simulate the human gait cycle. This method can also be done reversely in the analysis of gait in motion sicknesses.

Keywords: agent-based modeling and simulation, human muscle, gait cycle, motion sickness

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17369 Safety Risks of Gaseous Toxic Compounds Released from Li Batteries

Authors: Jan Karl, Ondrej Suchy, Eliska Fiserova, Milan Ruzicka

Abstract:

The evolving electromobility and all the electronics also bring an increase of danger with used Li-batteries. Li-batteries have been used in many industries, and currently many types of the batteries are available. Batteries have different compositions that affect their behavior. In the field of Li-battery safety, there are some areas of little discussion, such as extinguishing of fires caused by Li-batteries as well as toxicity of gaseous compounds released from Li batteries, transport or storage. Technical Institute of Fire Protection, which is a part of Fire Brigades of the Czech Republic, is dealing with the safety of Li batteries. That is the reason why we are dealing with toxicity of gaseous compounds released under conditions of fire, mechanical damage, overcharging and other emergencies that may occur. This is necessary for protection of intervening of fire brigade units, people in the vicinity and other envirnomental consequences. In this work, different types of batteries (Li-ion, Li-Po, LTO, LFP) with different kind of damage were tested, and the toxicity and total amount of released gases were studied. These values were evaluated according to their environmental hazard. FTIR spectroscopy was used for the evaluation of toxicity. We used a FTIR gas cell for continuous measurement. The total amount of released gases was determined by collecting the total gas phase through the absorbers and then determining the toxicants absorbed into the solutions. Based on the obtained results, it is possible to determine the protective equipment necessary for the event of an emergency with a Li-battery, to define the environmental load and the immediate danger in an emergency.

Keywords: Li-battery, toxicity, gaseous toxic compounds, FTIR spectroscopy

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17368 Multinomial Dirichlet Gaussian Process Model for Classification of Multidimensional Data

Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sanggoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

Abstract:

We present probabilistic multinomial Dirichlet classification model for multidimensional data and Gaussian process priors. Here, we have considered an efficient computational method that can be used to obtain the approximate posteriors for latent variables and parameters needed to define the multiclass Gaussian process classification model. We first investigated the process of inducing a posterior distribution for various parameters and latent function by using the variational Bayesian approximations and important sampling method, and next we derived a predictive distribution of latent function needed to classify new samples. The proposed model is applied to classify the synthetic multivariate dataset in order to verify the performance of our model. Experiment result shows that our model is more accurate than the other approximation methods.

Keywords: multinomial dirichlet classification model, Gaussian process priors, variational Bayesian approximation, importance sampling, approximate posterior distribution, marginal likelihood evidence

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17367 The Use of Haar Wavelet Mother Signal Tool for Performance Analysis Response of Distillation Column (Application to Moroccan Case Study)

Authors: Mahacine Amrani

Abstract:

This paper aims at reviewing some Moroccan industrial applications of wavelet especially in the dynamic identification of a process model using Haar wavelet mother response. Two recent Moroccan study cases are described using dynamic data originated by a distillation column and an industrial polyethylene process plant. The purpose of the wavelet scheme is to build on-line dynamic models. In both case studies, a comparison is carried out between the Haar wavelet mother response model and a linear difference equation model. Finally it concludes, on the base of the comparison of the process performances and the best responses, which may be useful to create an estimated on-line internal model control and its application towards model-predictive controllers (MPC). All calculations were implemented using AutoSignal Software.

Keywords: process performance, model, wavelets, Haar, Moroccan

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17366 Structural Analysis of Hole-Type Plate for Weight Lightening of Road Sign

Authors: Joon-Yeop Na, Sang-Keun Baik, Kyu-Soo Chong

Abstract:

Road sign sizes are related to their support and foundation, and the large-scale support that is generally installed at roadsides can cause inconvenience to pedestrians and damage the urban landscape. The most influential factor in determining the support and foundation of road signs is the wind load. In this study, we introduce a hole-type road sign to analyze its effects on reducing wind load. A hole-type road sign reduces the drag coefficient that is applied when considering the air and fluid resistance of a plate when the wind pressure is calculated, thus serving as an effective option for lightening the weights of road sign structures. A hole-type road sign is punctured with a perforator. Furthermore, the size of the holes and their distance is determined considering the damage to characters, the poor performance of reflective sheets, and legibility. For the calculation of the optimal specification of a hole-type road sign, we undertook a theoretical examination for reducing the wind loads on hole-type road signs, and analyzed the bending and reflectivity of sample road sign plates. The analytic results confirmed that a hole-type road sign sample that contains holes of 6 mm in diameter with a distance of 18 mm between the holes shows reflectivity closest to that of existing road signs; moreover, the average bending moment resulted in a reduction of 4.24%, and the support’s diameter is reduced by 40.2%.

Keywords: hole type, road sign, weight lightening, wind load

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17365 Model Estimation and Error Level for Okike’s Merged Irregular Transposition Cipher

Authors: Okike Benjamin, Garba E. J. D.

Abstract:

The researcher has developed a new encryption technique known as Merged Irregular Transposition Cipher. In this cipher method of encryption, a message to be encrypted is split into parts and each part encrypted separately. Before the encrypted message is transmitted to the recipient(s), the positions of the split in the encrypted messages could be swapped to ensure more security. This work seeks to develop a model by considering the split number, S and the average number of characters per split, L as the message under consideration is split from 2 through 10. Again, after developing the model, the error level in the model would be determined.

Keywords: merged irregular transposition, error level, model estimation, message splitting

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17364 3D Multimedia Model for Educational Design Engineering

Authors: Mohanaad Talal Shakir

Abstract:

This paper tries to propose educational design by using multimedia technology for Engineering of computer Technology, Alma'ref University College in Iraq. This paper evaluates the acceptance, cognition, and interactiveness of the proposed model by students by using the statistical relationship to determine the stage of the model. Objectives of proposed education design are to develop a user-friendly software for education purposes using multimedia technology and to develop animation for 3D model to simulate assembling and disassembling process of high-speed flow.

Keywords: CAL, multimedia, shock tunnel, interactivity, engineering education

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17363 Diagnostic Assessment for Mastery Learning of Engineering Students with a Bayesian Network Model

Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Yingchen Yang

Abstract:

In this study, a diagnostic assessment model for Mastery Engineering Learning was established based on a group of undergraduate students who studied in an engineering course. A diagnostic assessment model can examine both students' learning process and report achievement results. One very unique characteristic is that the diagnostic assessment model can recognize the errors and anything blocking students in their learning processes. The feedback is provided to help students to know how to solve the learning problems with alternative strategies and help the instructor to find alternative pedagogical strategies in the instructional designs. Dynamics is a core course in which is a common course being shared by several engineering programs. This course is a very challenging for engineering students to solve the problems. Thus knowledge acquisition and problem-solving skills are crucial for student success. Therefore, developing an effective and valid assessment model for student learning are of great importance. Diagnostic assessment is such a model which can provide effective feedback for both students and instructor in the mastery of engineering learning.

Keywords: diagnostic assessment, mastery learning, engineering, bayesian network model, learning processes

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17362 Modelling Residential Space Heating Energy for Romania

Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption, in Romania. Both techno-economic and consumer behavior approaches have been considered, in order to develop the model. The proposed model aims to reduce the energy consumption, in households, by assembling in a unitary model, aspects concerning: residential lighting, space heating, hot water, and combined space heating – hot water, space cooling, and passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating domestic energy consumption model, and quantify not only technical-economic issues, but also consumer behavior impact, related to people decision to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: consumer behavior, open source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model, virtual technologies

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17361 Antifungal Susceptibility of Saprolegnia parasitica Isolated from Rainbow Trout and Its Host Pathogen Interaction in Zebrafish Disease Model

Authors: Sangyeop Shin, D. C. M. Kulatunga, S. H. S. Dananjaya, Chamilani Nikapitiya, Jehee Lee, Mahanama De Zoysa

Abstract:

Saprolegniasis is one of the most devastating fungal diseases in freshwater fish which is caused by species in the genus Saprolegnia including Saprolegnia parasitica. In this study, we isolated the strain of S. parasitica from diseased rainbow trout in Korea. Morphological and molecular based identification confirmed that isolated fungi belong to the member of S. parasitica, supported by its typical fungal features including cotton-like whitish mycelium, zoospores (primary and secondary) and phylogenetic analysis with internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region. Pathogenicity of isolated S. parasitica was developed in embryo, larvae, juvenile and adult zebrafish as a disease model. Up regulation of host genes encoding ZfTnf-α, Zfc-Rel, ZfIl-12, ZfLyz-c, Zfβ-def, and ZfHsp-70 was identified in zebrafish larvae after experimental challenge of S. parasitica showing the host immune responses against the S. parasitica. Survival of the juveniles upon fungal infection might be due to the increased immune protection in the host. Investigation of antifungal susceptibility of S. parasitica with natural lawsone (2-hydroxy-1,4-naphthoquinone) revealed the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and percentage inhibition of radial growth (PIRG %) as 200 µg/mL and 31.8%, respectively. Lawsone was able to change the membrane permeability, and cause irreversible damage and disintegration to the cellular membranes of S. parasitica which might have effect on fungi growth inhibition. Moreover, the mycelium exposed to lawsone (MIC level) changed the transcriptional responses of S. parasitica genes. Overall results indicate that lawsone could be a potential and novel anti-S. parasitica agent for controlling S. parasitica infection.

Keywords: host-pathogen interactions, lawsone, rainbow trout, Saprolegnia parasitica, Saprolegniasis, zebrafish

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17360 Ecosystem Model for Environmental Applications

Authors: Cristina Schreiner, Romeo Ciobanu, Marius Pislaru

Abstract:

This paper aims to build a system based on fuzzy models that can be implemented in the assessment of ecological systems, to determine appropriate methods of action for reducing adverse effects on environmental and implicit the population. The model proposed provides new perspective for environmental assessment, and it can be used as a practical instrument for decision-making.

Keywords: ecosystem model, environmental security, fuzzy logic, sustainability of habitable regions

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17359 Modeling of the Effect of Explosives, Geological and Geotechnical Parameters on the Stability of Rock Masses Case of Marrakech: Agadir Highway, Morocco

Authors: Taoufik Benchelha, Toufik Remmal, Rachid El Hamdouni, Hamou Mansouri, Houssein Ejjaouani, Halima Jounaid, Said Benchelha

Abstract:

During the earthworks for the construction of Marrakech-Agadir highway in southern Morocco, which crosses mountainous areas of the High Western Atlas, the main problem faced is the stability of the slopes. Indeed, the use of explosives as a means of excavation associated with the geological structure of the terrain encountered can trigger major ruptures and cause damage which depends on the intrinsic characteristics of the rock mass. The study consists of a geological and geotechnical analysis of several unstable zones located along the route, mobilizing millions of cubic meters of rock, with deduction of the parameters influencing slope stability. From this analysis, a predictive model for rock mass stability is carried out, based on a statistic method of logistic regression, in order to predict the geomechanical behavior of the rock slopes constrained by earthworks.

Keywords: explosive, logistic regression, rock mass, slope stability

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17358 Mathematical and Numerical Analysis of a Nonlinear Cross Diffusion System

Authors: Hassan Al Salman

Abstract:

We consider a nonlinear parabolic cross diffusion model arising in applied mathematics. A fully practical piecewise linear finite element approximation of the model is studied. By using entropy-type inequalities and compactness arguments, existence of a global weak solution is proved. Providing further regularity of the solution of the model, some uniqueness results and error estimates are established. Finally, some numerical experiments are performed.

Keywords: cross diffusion model, entropy-type inequality, finite element approximation, numerical analysis

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17357 ACBM: Attention-Based CNN and Bi-LSTM Model for Continuous Identity Authentication

Authors: Rui Mao, Heming Ji, Xiaoyu Wang

Abstract:

Keystroke dynamics are widely used in identity recognition. It has the advantage that the individual typing rhythm is difficult to imitate. It also supports continuous authentication through the keyboard without extra devices. The existing keystroke dynamics authentication methods based on machine learning have a drawback in supporting relatively complex scenarios with massive data. There are drawbacks to both feature extraction and model optimization in these methods. To overcome the above weakness, an authentication model of keystroke dynamics based on deep learning is proposed. The model uses feature vectors formed by keystroke content and keystroke time. It ensures efficient continuous authentication by cooperating attention mechanisms with the combination of CNN and Bi-LSTM. The model has been tested with Open Data Buffalo dataset, and the result shows that the FRR is 3.09%, FAR is 3.03%, and EER is 4.23%. This proves that the model is efficient and accurate on continuous authentication.

Keywords: keystroke dynamics, identity authentication, deep learning, CNN, LSTM

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17356 A Genetic-Neural-Network Modeling Approach for Self-Heating in GaN High Electron Mobility Transistors

Authors: Anwar Jarndal

Abstract:

In this paper, a genetic-neural-network (GNN) based large-signal model for GaN HEMTs is presented along with its parameters extraction procedure. The model is easy to construct and implement in CAD software and requires only DC and S-parameter measurements. An improved decomposition technique is used to model self-heating effect. Two GNN models are constructed to simulate isothermal drain current and power dissipation, respectively. The two model are then composed to simulate the drain current. The modeling procedure was applied to a packaged GaN-on-Si HEMT and the developed model is validated by comparing its large-signal simulation with measured data. A very good agreement between the simulation and measurement is obtained.

Keywords: GaN HEMT, computer-aided design and modeling, neural networks, genetic optimization

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17355 Energy and Exergy Analysis of Anode-Supported and Electrolyte–Supported Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Gas Turbine Power System

Authors: Abdulrazzak Akroot, Lutfu Namli

Abstract:

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are one of the most promising technologies since they can produce electricity directly from fuel and generate a lot of waste heat that is generally used in the gas turbines to promote the general performance of the thermal power plant. In this study, the energy, and exergy analysis of a solid oxide fuel cell/gas turbine hybrid system was proceed in MATLAB to examine the performance characteristics of the hybrid system in two different configurations: anode-supported model and electrolyte-supported model. The obtained results indicate that if the fuel utilization factor reduces from 0.85 to 0.65, the overall efficiency decreases from 64.61 to 59.27% for the anode-supported model whereas it reduces from 58.3 to 56.4% for the electrolyte-supported model. Besides, the overall exergy reduces from 53.86 to 44.06% for the anode-supported model whereas it reduces from 39.96 to 33.94% for the electrolyte-supported model. Furthermore, increasing the air utilization factor has a negative impact on the electrical power output and the efficiencies of the overall system due to the reduction in the O₂ concentration at the cathode-electrolyte interface.

Keywords: solid oxide fuel cell, anode-supported model, electrolyte-supported model, energy analysis, exergy analysis

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17354 Numerical Modeling of Storm Swells in Harbor by Boussinesq Equations Model

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

Abstract:

The purpose of work is to study the phenomenon of agitation of storm waves at basin caused by different directions of waves relative to the current provision thrown numerical model based on the equation in shallow water using Boussinesq model MIKE 21 BW. According to the diminishing effect of penetration of a wave optimal solution will be available to be reproduced in reduced model. Another alternative arrangement throws will be proposed to reduce the agitation and the effects of the swell reflection caused by the penetration of waves in the harbor.

Keywords: agitation, Boussinesq equations, combination, harbor

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17353 Bottling the Darkness of Inner Life: Considering the Origins of Model Psychosis

Authors: Matthew Perkins-McVey

Abstract:

The pharmacological arm of mental health treatment is in a state of crisis. The promises of the Prozac century have fallen short; the number of different therapeutically significant medications that successfully complete development shrinks with every passing year, and the demand for better treatments only grows. Answering these hardships is a renewed optimism concerning the efficacy of controlled psychedelic therapy, a renaissance that has seen the return of a familiar concept: intoxication as a model psychosis. First appearing in the mid-19th century and featuring in an array of 20th century efforts in psychedelic research, model psychosis has, once more, come to the foreground of psychedelic research. And yet, little has been made of where this peculiar, perhaps even intoxicatingly mad, the idea originates. This paper seeks to uncover the conceptual foundations underlying the early emergence of model psychosis. This narrative will explore the conceptual foundations behind their independent development of the concept of model psychosis, considering their similarities and differences. In the course of this examination, it becomes apparent that the definition of endogenous psychosis, which formed in the mid-19th century, is the direct product of emerging understandings of exogenous psychosis, or model psychosis. Ultimately, the goal is not merely to understand how and why model psychosis became thinkable but to examine how seemingly secondary concept changes can engender new ways of being a psychiatric subject.

Keywords: history of psychiatry, model psychosis, history of medicine, history of science

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17352 An Agent-Based Model of Innovation Diffusion Using Heterogeneous Social Interaction and Preference

Authors: Jang kyun Cho, Jeong-dong Lee

Abstract:

The advent of the Internet, mobile communications, and social network services has stimulated social interactions among consumers, allowing people to affect one another’s innovation adoptions by exchanging information more frequently and more quickly. Previous diffusion models, such as the Bass model, however, face limitations in reflecting such recent phenomena in society. These models are weak in their ability to model interactions between agents; they model aggregated-level behaviors only. The agent based model, which is an alternative to the aggregate model, is good for individual modeling, but it is still not based on an economic perspective of social interactions so far. This study assumes the presence of social utility from other consumers in the adoption of innovation and investigates the effect of individual interactions on innovation diffusion by developing a new model called the interaction-based diffusion model. By comparing this model with previous diffusion models, the study also examines how the proposed model explains innovation diffusion from the perspective of economics. In addition, the study recommends the use of a small-world network topology instead of cellular automata to describe innovation diffusion. This study develops a model based on individual preference and heterogeneous social interactions using utility specification, which is expandable and, thus, able to encompass various issues in diffusion research, such as reservation price. Furthermore, the study proposes a new framework to forecast aggregated-level market demand from individual level modeling. The model also exhibits a good fit to real market data. It is expected that the study will contribute to our understanding of the innovation diffusion process through its microeconomic theoretical approach.

Keywords: innovation diffusion, agent based model, small-world network, demand forecasting

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17351 Generalized Extreme Value Regression with Binary Dependent Variable: An Application for Predicting Meteorological Drought Probabilities

Authors: Retius Chifurira

Abstract:

Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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17350 The Flooding Management Strategy in Urban Areas: Reusing Public Facilities Land as Flood-Detention Space for Multi-Purpose

Authors: Hsiao-Ting Huang, Chang Hsueh-Sheng

Abstract:

Taiwan is an island country which is affected by the monsoon deeply. Under the climate change, the frequency of extreme rainstorm by typhoon becomes more and more often Since 2000. When the extreme rainstorm comes, it will cause serious damage in Taiwan, especially in urban area. It is suffered by the flooding and the government take it as the urgent issue. On the past, the land use of urban planning does not take flood-detention into consideration. With the development of the city, the impermeable surface increase and most of the people live in urban area. It means there is the highly vulnerability in the urban area, but it cannot deal with the surface runoff and the flooding. However, building the detention pond in hydraulic engineering way to solve the problem is not feasible in urban area. The land expropriation is the most expensive construction of the detention pond in the urban area, and the government cannot afford it. Therefore, the management strategy of flooding in urban area should use the existing resource, public facilities land. It can archive the performance of flood-detention through providing the public facilities land with the detention function. As multi-use public facilities land, it also can show the combination of the land use and water agency. To this purpose, this research generalizes the factors of multi-use for public facilities land as flood-detention space with literature review. The factors can be divided into two categories: environmental factors and conditions of public facilities. Environmental factors including three factors: the terrain elevation, the inundation potential and the distance from the drainage system. In the other hand, there are six factors for conditions of public facilities, including area, building rate, the maximum of available ratio etc. Each of them will be according to it characteristic to given the weight for the land use suitability analysis. This research selects the rules of combination from the logical combination. After this process, it can be classified into three suitability levels. Then, three suitability levels will input to the physiographic inundation model for simulating the evaluation of flood-detention respectively. This study tries to respond the urgent issue in urban area and establishes a model of multi-use for public facilities land as flood-detention through the systematic research process of this study. The result of this study can tell which combination of the suitability level is more efficacious. Besides, The model is not only standing on the side of urban planners but also add in the point of view from water agency. Those findings may serve as basis for land use indicators and decision-making references for concerned government agencies.

Keywords: flooding management strategy, land use suitability analysis, multi-use for public facilities land, physiographic inundation model

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17349 2D Surface Flow Model in The Biebrza Floodplain

Authors: Dorota Miroslaw-Swiatek, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sylwia Szporak

Abstract:

We applied a two-dimensional surface water flow model with irregular wet boundaries. In this model, flow equations are in the form of a 2-D, non-linear diffusion equations which allows to account spatial variations in flow resistance and topography. Calculation domain to simulate the flow pattern in the floodplain is congruent with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) grid. The rate and direction of sheet flow in wetlands is affected by vegetation type and density, therefore the developed model take into account spatial distribution vegetation resistance to the water flow. The model was tested in a part of the Biebrza Valley, of an outstanding heterogeneity in the elevation and flow resistance distributions due to various ecohydrological conditions and management measures. In our approach we used the highest-possible quality of the DEM in order to obtain hydraulic slopes and vegetation distribution parameters for the modelling. The DEM was created from the cloud of points measured in the LiDAR technology. The LiDAR reflects both the land surface as well as all objects on top of it such as vegetation. Depending on the density of vegetation cover the ability of laser penetration is variable. Therefore to obtain accurate land surface model the “vegetation effect” was corrected using data collected in the field (mostly the vegetation height) and satellite imagery such as Ikonos (to distinguish different vegetation types of the floodplain and represent them spatially). Model simulation was performed for the spring thaw flood in 2009.

Keywords: floodplain flow, Biebrza valley, model simulation, 2D surface flow model

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17348 A Study of Mode Choice Model Improvement Considering Age Grouping

Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hyunwoo Park, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is providing an improved mode choice model considering parameters including age grouping of prime-aged and old age. In this study, 2010 Household Travel Survey data were used and improper samples were removed through the analysis. Chosen alternative, date of birth, mode, origin code, destination code, departure time, and arrival time are considered from Household Travel Survey. By preprocessing data, travel time, travel cost, mode, and ratio of people aged 45 to 55 years, 55 to 65 years and over 65 years were calculated. After the manipulation, the mode choice model was constructed using LIMDEP by maximum likelihood estimation. A significance test was conducted for nine parameters, three age groups for three modes. Then the test was conducted again for the mode choice model with significant parameters, travel cost variable and travel time variable. As a result of the model estimation, as the age increases, the preference for the car decreases and the preference for the bus increases. This study is meaningful in that the individual and households characteristics are applied to the aggregate model.

Keywords: age grouping, aging, mode choice model, multinomial logit model

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17347 BERT-Based Chinese Coreference Resolution

Authors: Li Xiaoge, Wang Chaodong

Abstract:

We introduce the first Chinese Coreference Resolution Model based on BERT (CCRM-BERT) and show that it significantly outperforms all previous work. The key idea is to consider the features of the mention, such as part of speech, width of spans, distance between spans, etc. And the influence of each features on the model is analyzed. The model computes mention embeddings that combine BERT with features. Compared to the existing state-of-the-art span-ranking approach, our model significantly improves accuracy on the Chinese OntoNotes benchmark.

Keywords: BERT, coreference resolution, deep learning, nature language processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 191