Search results for: comprehensive model

Authors: Diana F. Lopes, Jorge Simoes, José Martins, Eduardo Castro

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Health professionals are the keystone of any health system, by delivering health services to the population. Given the time and cost involved in training new health professionals, the planning process of the health workforce is particularly important as it ensures a proper balance between the supply and demand of these professionals and it plays a central role on the Health 2020 policy. In the past 40 years, the planning of the health workforce in Portugal has been conducted in a reactive way lacking a prospective vision based on an integrated, comprehensive and valid analysis. This situation may compromise not only the productivity and the overall socio-economic development but the quality of the healthcare services delivered to patients. This is even more critical given the expected shortage of the health workforce in the future. Furthermore, Portugal is facing an aging context of some professional classes (physicians and nurses). In 2015, 54% of physicians in Portugal were over 50 years old, and 30% of all members were over 60 years old. This phenomenon associated to an increasing emigration of young health professionals and a change in the citizens’ illness profiles and expectations must be considered when planning resources in healthcare. The perspective of sudden retirement of large groups of professionals in a short time is also a major problem to address. Another challenge to embrace is the health workforce imbalances, in which Portugal has one of the lowest nurse to physician ratio, 1.5, below the European Region and the OECD averages (2.2 and 2.8, respectively). Within the scope of the HEALTH 2040 project – which aims to estimate the ‘Future needs of human health resources in Portugal till 2040’ – the present study intends to get a comprehensive dynamic approach of the problem, by (i) estimating the needs of physicians and nurses in Portugal, by specialties and by quinquenium till 2040; (ii) identifying the training needs of physicians and nurses, in medium and long term, till 2040, and (iii) estimating the number of students that must be admitted into medicine and nursing training systems, each year, considering the different categories of specialties. The development of such approach is significantly more critical in the context of limited budget resources and changing health care needs. In this context, this study presents the drivers of the healthcare needs’ evolution (such as the demographic and technological evolution, the future expectations of the users of the health systems) and it proposes a Bayesian methodology, combining the best available data with experts opinion, to model such evolution. Preliminary results considering different plausible scenarios are presented. The proposed methodology will be integrated in a user-friendly decision support system so it can be used by politicians, with the potential to measure the impact of health policies, both at the regional and the national level.

Keywords: bayesian estimation, health economics, health workforce planning, human health resources planning

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Authors: Ghita Benayad

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Asset allocation, which affects the long-term profitability of portfolios by distributing assets to fulfill a range of investment objectives, is the cornerstone of investment management in the dynamic and complicated world of financial markets. This paper offers a technique for optimizing strategic asset allocation with the goal of improving portfolio performance by addressing the inherent complexity and uncertainty of the market through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in a multi-objective modeling framework. The study's first section starts with a critical evaluation of conventional asset allocation techniques, highlighting how poorly they are able to capture the intricate relationships between assets and the volatile nature of the market. In order to overcome these challenges, the project suggests a PCA-driven methodology that isolates important characteristics influencing asset returns by decreasing the dimensionality of the investment universe. This decrease provides a stronger basis for asset allocation decisions by facilitating a clearer understanding of market structures and behaviors. Using a multi-objective optimization model, the project builds on this foundation by taking into account a number of performance metrics at once, including risk minimization, return maximization, and the accomplishment of predetermined investment goals like regulatory compliance or sustainability standards. This model provides a more comprehensive understanding of investor preferences and portfolio performance in comparison to conventional single-objective optimization techniques. While applying the PCA-driven multi-objective optimization model to historical market data, aiming to construct portfolios better under different market situations. As compared to portfolios produced from conventional asset allocation methodologies, the results show that portfolios optimized using the proposed method display improved risk-adjusted returns, more resilience to market downturns, and better alignment with specified investment objectives. The study also looks at the implications of this PCA technique for portfolio management, including the prospect that it might give investors a more advanced framework for navigating financial markets. The findings suggest that by combining PCA with multi-objective optimization, investors may obtain a more strategic and informed asset allocation that is responsive to both market conditions and individual investment preferences. In conclusion, this capstone project improves the field of financial engineering by creating a sophisticated asset allocation optimization model that integrates PCA with multi-objective optimization. In addition to raising concerns about the condition of asset allocation today, the proposed method of portfolio management opens up new avenues for research and application in the area of investment techniques.

Keywords: asset allocation, portfolio optimization, principle component analysis, multi-objective modelling, financial market

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Authors: Jian Yang, Atsushi Yagi

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Tree-grass coexistence system is of great importance for forest ecology. Mathematical models are being proposed to study the dynamics of tree-grass coexistence and the stability of the systems. However, few of the models concentrates on spatial dynamics of the tree-grass coexistence. In this study, we modified an age-structured continuous-space population model for forests, obtaining an age-structured continuous-space population model for the tree-grass competition model. In the model, for thermal competitions, adult trees can out-compete grass, and grass can out-compete seedlings. We mathematically studied the model to make sure tree-grass coexistence solutions exist. Numerical experiments demonstrated that a fraction of area that trees or grass occupies can affect whether the coexistence is stable or not. We also tried regulating the mortality of adult trees with other parameters and the fraction of area trees and grass occupies were fixed; results show that the mortality of adult trees is also a factor affecting the stability of the tree-grass coexistence in this model.

Keywords: population-structured models, stabilities of ecosystems, thermal competitions, tree-grass coexistence systems

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Authors: Sohaib Z. Khan, Farrukh Mustahsan, Essam R. I. Mahmoud, S. H. Masood

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Materials or structures that contract laterally on the application of a compressive load and vice versa are said to be Auxetic materials which exhibit Negative Poisson’s Ratio (NPR). Numerous auxetic structures are proposed in the literature. One of the most studied periodic auxetic structure is the re-entrant honeycomb model. In this paper, a modified re-entrant model is proposed to enhance the auxetic behavior. The paper aimed to investigate the elastic behaviour of the proposed model to improve Young’s modulus and NPR by evaluating the analytical model. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is also conducted to support the analytical results. A significant increment in Young’s modulus and NPR can be achieved in one of the two orthogonal directions of the loading at the cost of compromising these values in other direction. The proposed modification resulted in lower relative densities when compared to the existing re-entrant honeycomb structure. A trade-off in the elastic properties in one direction at low relative density makes the proposed model suitable for uni-direction applications where higher stiffness and NPR is required, and strength to weight ratio is important.

Keywords: 2D model, auxetic materials, re-entrant honeycomb, negative Poisson's ratio

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Authors: Yunusa Aliyu Hadejia

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Cholera is a gastrointestinal disease caused by a bacterium called Vibrio Cholerae which spread as a result of eating food or drinking water contaminated with feaces from an infected person. In this work we proposed and analyzed the impact of isolating infected people and give them therapeutic treatment, the specific objectives of the research was to formulate a mathematical model of cholera transmission incorporating treatment class, to make analysis on stability of equilibrium points of the model, positivity and boundedness was shown to ensure that the model has a biological meaning, the basic reproduction number was derived by next generation matrix approach. The result of stability analysis show that the Disease free equilibrium was both locally and globally asymptotically stable when R_0< 1 while endemic equilibrium has locally asymptotically stable when R_0> 1. Sensitivity analysis was perform to determine the contribution of each parameter to the basic reproduction number. Numerical simulation was carried out to show the impact of the model parameters using MAT Lab Software.

Keywords: mathematical model, treatment, stability, sensitivity

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Authors: Nader Al-Rashidi, David Greenhalgh

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Mathematical modelling techniques are now being used by health organizations worldwide to help understand the likely impact that intervention strategies treatment options and combinations of these have on the prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the people who inject drugs (PWID) population. In this poster, we develop a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model to approximate the spread of the HCV in a PWID population that has been divided into two groups by time since onset of injection. The model assumes that after injection needles adopt the most infectious state of their previous state or that of the PWID who last injected with them. Using analytical techniques, we find that the model behaviour is determined by the basic reproductive number R₀, where R₀ = 1 is a critical threshold separating two different outcomes. The disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R₀ ≤ 1 and unstable if R₀ > 1. Additionally, we make some simulations where have confirmed that the model tends to this endemic equilibrium value with realistic parameter values giving an HCV prevalence.

Keywords: hepatitis C, people who inject drugs, HCV, PWID

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Authors: N. Ismail, O. Thammajinda, U. Thongpanya

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Games-based learning (GBL) has become increasingly important in teaching and learning. This paper explains the first two phases (analysis and design) of a GBL development project, ending up with a prototype design based on students’ and teachers’ perceptions. The two phases are part of a full cycle GBL project aiming to help secondary school students in Thailand in their study of Comprehensive Sex Education (CSE). In the course of the study, we invited 1,152 students to complete questionnaires and interviewed 12 secondary school teachers in focus groups. This paper found that GBL can serve students in their learning about CSE, enabling them to gain understanding of their sexuality, develop skills, including critical thinking skills and interact with others (peers, teachers, etc.) in a safe environment. The objectives of this paper are to outline the development of GBL variables from the research question(s) into the developers’ flow chart, to be responsive to the GBL beneficiaries’ preferences and expectations, and to help in answering the research questions. This paper details the steps applied to generate GBL variables that can feed into a game flow chart to develop a GBL prototype. In our approach, we detailed two models: (1) Game Elements Model (GEM) and (2) Game Object Model (GOM). There are three outcomes of this research – first, to achieve the objectives and benefits of GBL in learning, game design has to start with the research question(s) and the challenges to be resolved as research outcomes. Second, aligning the educational aims with engaging GBL end users (students) within the data collection phase to inform the game prototype with the game variables is essential to address the answer/solution to the research question(s). Third, for efficient GBL to bridge the gap between pedagogy and technology and in order to answer the research questions via technology (i.e. GBL) and to minimise the isolation between the pedagogists “P” and technologist “T”, several meetings and discussions need to take place within the team.

Keywords: games-based learning, engagement, pedagogy, preferences, prototype

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Authors: Guilherme B. B. Vieira, Rafael M. da Silva, Eliana T. P. Senna, Luiz A. S. Senna, Francisco J. Kliemann Neto

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Given the importance of ports as links in the global supply chains and because they are key elements to induce competitiveness in their hinterlands, the number of studies devoted to port governance, management and operations has increased in the last decades. Some of these studies address the port governance model as an element to improve coordination among the actors of the port logistics chain and to generate a better port performance. In this context, the present study analyzes the governance of Port of Santos through individual interviews with port managers, based on a conceptual model that considers the key dimensions associated with port governance. The results reinforce the usefulness of the applied model and highlight some existing improvement opportunities in the port studied.

Keywords: port governance, model, Port of Santos, managers’ perception

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Authors: Iva Zdrilić, Petra Došenović Bonča, Darija Aleksić

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Since the boundaryless career, with its emphasis on cross-employer movements, was introduced as a new paradigm of career development, inter-organizational employee mobility has been increasing. Although this phenomenon may have positive implications for individual careers and destination organizations, the consequences for the source organizations losing workers are less clear. The aim of this paper is thus to develop a comprehensive typology of possible inter-organizational employee mobility determinants. Since the most common classification differentiates between mobility determinants at different levels (i.e., economic, organizational, and individual), this paper focuses on building a comprehensive multi-level typology of inter-organizational mobility determinants across diverse sectors and industries. By using a structured literature review approach and bibliometric analysis, the paper reveals both intricate relationships between different mobility determinants and the complexity of inter-organizational networks and social ties. The latter appears as both a mobility determinant (at the organizational and individual level) and a mobility effect. Indeed, inter-organizational employee mobility leads to the formation of networks between source and destination organizations. These networks are practically based on the social ties between mobile employees and their colleagues and, in this way, they close the "inter-organizational employee mobility - inter-organizational network/ties" circle. The paper contributes to the career development literature by uncovering hitherto underexplored diverse determinants of intra- and inter-sectoral mobility as well as the conflicting results of the existing studies on some factors (e.g., inter-organizational networks and/or social ties) that appear both as a mobility determinant and a mobility effect.

Keywords: inter-organizational mobility, social ties, inter-organizational network, knowledge transfer

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Authors: Abdul Qader Melhm, Hussein Elrafidi

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This paper is dealing with studying the structural behavior of a steel-composite hollow reinforced concrete (RC) column model under combined eccentric loading. The composite model consists of an inner steel tube surrounded via a concrete core with longitudinal and circular transverse reinforcement. The radius of gyration according to American and Euro specifications be calculated, in order to calculate the thinnest ratio for this type of composite column model, in addition to the flexural rigidity. Formulas for interaction diagram is given for this type of model, which is a general loading conditions in which an element is exposed to an axial load with bending at the same time. The structural capacity of this model, elastic, plastic loads and strains will be computed and compared with experimental results. The total eccentric axial load of the column model is calculated based on the effective length KL available from several relationships provided in the paper. Furthermore, the inner tube experiences buckling failure after reaching its maximum strength will be investigated.

Keywords: column, composite, eccentric, inner tube, interaction, reinforcement

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Authors: Hassan Youssef Mohamed

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In this paper, we show new wave equations, and by using the equations, we concluded that the strong force and the weak force are not fundamental, but they are quantum effects for electromagnetism. This result is different from the current scientific understanding about strong and weak interactions at all. So, we introduce three evidences for our theory. First, we prove the asymptotic freedom phenomenon in the strong force by using our model. Second, we derive the nuclear shell model as an approximation of our model. Third, we prove that the leptons do not participate in the strong interactions, and we prove the short ranges of weak and strong interactions. So, our model is consistent with the current understanding of physics. Finally, we introduce the electron-positron model as the basic ingredients for protons, neutrons, and all matters, so we can study all particles interactions and nuclear interaction as many-body problems of electrons and positrons. Also, we prove the violation of parity conservation in weak interaction as evidence of our theory in the weak interaction. Also, we calculate the average of the binding energy per nucleon.

Keywords: new wave equations, the strong force, the grand unification theory, hydrogen atom, weak force, the nuclear shell model, the asymptotic freedom, electron-positron model, the violation of parity conservation, the binding energy

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Authors: I. A Tijani, Y. F Wu, C.W. Lim

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Concrete Damaged Plasticity Model (CDPM) is capable of modeling the stress-strain behavior of confined concrete. Nevertheless, the accuracy of the model largely depends on its parameters. To date, most research works mainly focus on the identification and modification of the parameters for fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) confined concrete prior to damage. And, it has been established that the FRP-strengthened concrete behaves differently to FRP-repaired concrete. This paper presents a modified plastic damage model within the context of the CDPM in ABAQUS for modelling of a uniformly FRP-confined repaired concrete under monotonic loading. The proposed model includes infliction damage, elastic stiffness, yield criterion and strain hardening rule. The distinct feature of damaged concrete is elastic stiffness reduction; this is included in the model. Meanwhile, the test results were obtained from a physical testing of repaired concrete. The dilation model is expressed as a function of the lateral stiffness of the FRP-jacket. The finite element predictions are shown to be in close agreement with the obtained test results of the repaired concrete. It was observed from the study that with necessary modifications, finite element method is capable of modeling FRP-repaired concrete structures.

Keywords: Concrete, FRP, Damage, Repairing, Plasticity, and Finite element method

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Authors: A. S. Mousa, F. Shoman

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We present a discrete game theoretical model with homogeneous individuals who make simultaneous decisions. In this model the strategy space of all individuals is a discrete and dichotomous set which consists of two strategies. We fully characterize the coherent, split and mixed strategies that form Nash equilibria and we determine the corresponding Nash domains for all individuals. We find all strategic thresholds in which individuals can change their mind if small perturbations in the parameters of the model occurs.

Keywords: coherent strategy, split strategy, pure strategy, mixed strategy, Nash equilibrium, game theory

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Authors: Peter Carter

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Comprehensive climate change indicators and trends inform the state of the climate (system) with respect to present and future climate change scenarios and the urgency of mitigation and adaptation. With data records now going back for many decades, indicator trends can complement model projections. They are provided as datasets by several climate monitoring centers, reviewed by state of the climate reports, and documented by the IPCC assessments. Up-to-date indicators are provided here. Rates of change are instructive, as are extremes. The indicators include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (natural and synthetic), cumulative CO2 emissions, atmospheric GHG concentrations (including CO2 equivalent), stratospheric ozone, surface ozone, radiative forcing, global average temperature increase, land temperature increase, zonal temperature increases, carbon sinks, soil moisture, sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, ocean acidification, ocean oxygen, glacier mass, Arctic temperature, Arctic sea ice (extent and volume), northern hemisphere snow cover, permafrost indices, Arctic GHG emissions, ice sheet mass, sea level rise, and stratospheric and surface ozone. Global warming is not the most reliable single metric for the climate state. Radiative forcing, atmospheric CO2 equivalent, and ocean heat content are more reliable. Global warming does not provide future commitment, whereas atmospheric CO2 equivalent does. Cumulative carbon is used for estimating carbon budgets. The forcing of aerosols is briefly addressed. Indicator interactions are included. In particular, indicators can provide insight into several crucial global warming amplifying feedback loops, which are explained. All indicators are increasing (adversely), most as fast as ever and some faster. One particularly pressing indicator is rapidly increasing global atmospheric methane. In this respect, methane emissions and sources are covered in more detail. In their application, indicators used in assessing safe planetary boundaries are included. Indicators are considered with respect to recent published papers on possible catastrophic climate change and climate system tipping thresholds. They are climate-change-policy relevant. In particular, relevant policies include the 2015 Paris Agreement on “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” and the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate change, which has “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

Keywords: climate change, climate change indicators, climate change trends, climate system change interactions

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Authors: Hyun-Kyu Cho, Jun-Su Kim, Choon-Geun Huh, Geon Lee Young-Chul Park

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In this study, the relationship between flow properties and fluid projection distance look into connection for shape variations of foam monitor. A numerical analysis technique for fluid analysis of a foam monitor was developed for the prediction. Shape of foam monitor the flow path of fluid flow according to the shape, The fluid losses were calculated from flow analysis result.. The modified model used the length increase model of the flow path, and straight line of the model. Inlet pressure was 7 [bar] and external was atmosphere codition. am. The results showed that the length increase model of the flow path and straight line of the model was improved in the nozzle projection distance.

Keywords: injection performance, finite element method, foam monitor, Projection distance

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Authors: Bello Gonzalez, Setten Van M., Brouwer M.

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The chicken small intestine represents a dynamic and complex organ in which the enzymatic digestion and absorption of nutrients take place. The development of an in vitro fermentation chicken small intestinal model could be used as an alternative to explore the interaction between the microbiota and nutrient metabolism and to enhance the efficacy of targeting interventions to improve animal health. In the present study we have developed an in vitro fermentation chicken ileum microbiota model for unrevealing the complex interaction of ileum microbial community under physiological conditions. A two-vessel continuous fermentation process simulating in real-time the physiological conditions of the ileum content (pH, temperature, microaerophilic/anoxic conditions, and peristaltic movements) has been standardized as a proof of concept. As inoculum, we use a pool of ileum microbial community obtained from chicken broilers at the age of day 14. The development and validation of the model provide insight into the initial characterization of the ileum microbial community and its dynamics over time-related to nutrient assimilation and fermentation. Samples can be collected at different time points and can be used to determine the microbial compositional structure, dynamics, and diversity over time. The results of studies using this in vitro model will serve as the foundation for the development of a whole small intestine in vitro fermentation chicken gastrointestinal model to complement our already established in vitro fermentation chicken caeca model. The insight gained from this model could provide us with some information about the nutritional strategies to restore and maintain chicken gut homeostasis. Moreover, the in vitro fermentation model will also allow us to study relationships between gut microbiota composition and its dynamics over time associated with nutrients, antimicrobial compounds, and disease modelling.

Keywords: broilers, in vitro model, ileum microbiota, fermentation

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Authors: Sikiru Ademola Adewale, Joe Thomas, Bolanle Hafiz Matti, Tosin Ige

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This project demonstrates the implementation and use of an encoder-decoder model to perform a many-to-many mapping of video data to text captions. The many-to-many mapping occurs via an input temporal sequence of video frames to an output sequence of words to form a caption sentence. Data preprocessing, model construction, and model training are discussed. Caption correctness is evaluated using 2-gram BLEU scores across the different splits of the dataset. Specific examples of output captions were shown to demonstrate model generality over the video temporal dimension. Predicted captions were shown to generalize over video action, even in instances where the video scene changed dramatically. Model architecture changes are discussed to improve sentence grammar and correctness.

Keywords: decoder, encoder, many-to-many mapping, video captioning, 2-gram BLEU

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: A. Bayaga

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This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

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Authors: Morteza Giti

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As online shopping is becoming increasingly popular, computing customer lifetime value for better knowing the customers is also gaining more importance. Two distinct factors that can affect the value of a customer in the context of online shopping is the number of returned orders and payment method. Returned orders are those which have been shipped but not collected by the customer and are returned to the store. Payment method refers to the way that customers choose to pay for the price of the order which are usually two: Pre-pay and Cash-on-delivery. In this paper, a novel model called RFMSP is presented to calculated the customer lifetime value, taking these two parameters into account. The RFMSP model is based on the common RFM model while adding two extra parameter. The S represents the order status and the P indicates the payment method. As a case study for this model, the purchase history of customers in an online shop is used to compute the customer lifetime value over a period of twenty months.

Keywords: RFMSP model, AHP, customer lifetime value, k-means clustering, e-commerce

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Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

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Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf=bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf=diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution

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Authors: Agastya Pratap Singh

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Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have emerged as powerful tools in the fields of image recognition and anomaly detection due to their ability to model complex data distributions and generate realistic images. This systematic review explores recent advancements and applications of GANs in both image recognition and anomaly detection tasks. We discuss various GAN architectures, such as DCGAN, CycleGAN, and StyleGAN, which have been tailored to improve accuracy, robustness, and efficiency in visual data analysis. In image recognition, GANs have been used to enhance data augmentation, improve classification models, and generate high-quality synthetic images. In anomaly detection, GANs have proven effective in identifying rare and subtle abnormalities across various domains, including medical imaging, cybersecurity, and industrial inspection. The review also highlights the challenges and limitations associated with GAN-based methods, such as instability during training and mode collapse, and suggests future research directions to overcome these issues. Through this review, we aim to provide researchers with a comprehensive understanding of the capabilities and potential of GANs in transforming image recognition and anomaly detection practices.

Keywords: generative adversarial networks, image recognition, anomaly detection, DCGAN, CycleGAN, StyleGAN, data augmentation

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Authors: Yang Chen, Lili Fu

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Promoting urban regeneration in existing areas has been elevated to a national strategy in China. In this context, because of the multidimensional sustainable effect through the intensive use of land, mixed-use development has become an important objective for high-quality urban regeneration in the inner city. However, in the long period of time since China's reform and opening up, the "unbalanced phenomenon" of mixed-use development in China's inner cities has been very serious. On the one hand, the excessive focus on certain individual spaces has led to an increase in the level of mixed-use development in some areas, substantially ahead of others, resulting in a growing gap between different parts of the inner city; On the other hand, the excessive focus on a one-dimensional element of the spatial organization of mixed-use development, such as the enhancement of functional mix or spatial capacity, has led to a lagging phenomenon or neglect in the construction of other dimensional elements, such as pedestrian permeability, green environmental quality, social inclusion, etc. This phenomenon is particularly evident in the central area of the inner city, and it clearly runs counter to the need for sustainable development in China's new era. Therefore, a rational qualitative and quantitative analysis of the "unbalanced phenomenon" will help to identify the problem and provide a basis for the formulation of relevant optimization plans in the future. This paper builds a dynamic evaluation method of mixed-use development based on a meta-dimensional model and then uses spatial evolution analysis and spatial consistency analysis with ArcGIS software to reveal the "unbalanced phenomenon " in over the past 40 years of the central city area in Nanjing, a China’s typical city facing regeneration. This study result finds that, compared to the increase in functional mix and capacity, the dimensions of residential space mix, public service facility mix, pedestrian permeability, and greenness in Nanjing's city central area showed different degrees of lagging improvement, and the unbalanced development problems in each part of the city center are different, so the governance and planning plan for future mixed-use development needs to fully address these problems. The research methodology of this paper provides a tool for comprehensive dynamic identification of mixed-use development level’s change, and the results deepen the knowledge of the evolution of mixed-use development patterns in China’s inner cities and provide a reference basis for future regeneration practices.

Keywords: mixed-use development, unbalanced phenomenon, the meta-dimensional model, over the past 40 years of Nanjing, China

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Authors: Guorong Sui, Xingwei Jia, Fei Tong, Xiumin Gao

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Camera calibration is a fundamental issue of high precision noncontact measurement. And it is necessary to analyze and study the reliability and application range of its linear model which is often used in the camera calibration. According to the imaging features of monocular cameras, a camera model which is based on the image pixel coordinates and three dimensional space coordinates is built. Using our own customized template, the image pixel coordinate is obtained by the subpixel corner detection method. Without considering the aberration of the optical system, the feature extraction and linearity analysis of the line segment in the template are performed. Moreover, the experiment is repeated 11 times by constantly varying the measuring distance. At last, the linearity of the camera is achieved by fitting 11 groups of data. The camera model measurement results show that the relative error does not exceed 1%, and the repeated measurement error is not more than 0.1 mm magnitude. Meanwhile, it is found that the model has some measurement differences in the different region and object distance. The experiment results show this linear model is simple and practical, and have good linearity within a certain object distance. These experiment results provide a powerful basis for establishment of the linear model of camera. These works will have potential value to the actual engineering measurement.

Keywords: camera linear model, geometric imaging relationship, image pixel coordinates, three dimensional space coordinates, sub-pixel corner detection

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

Abstract:

Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Arezoo Fallahi

Abstract:

We aimed at investigating the association between health beliefs and exercise behavior in infertile women who were at risk of developing osteoporosis. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Sanandaj city, west of Iran in 2018. From 35 comprehensive healthcare centers, 483 infertile women were included in the study through convenience sampling. Standardized face-to-face interviews were conducted using established, reliable instruments for the assessment of exercise behavior behavior and health beliefs. Logistic regression models were applied to assess the association between exercise behavior and health beliefs. Estimates were adjusted for age, job status, income, literacy, and duration and type of infertility. We reported estimated logits and Odds Ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Employed women compared to housewives had substantially higher odds of adopting exercise behavior behaviors (OR=3.19, 95% CI=1.53-6.66, p<0.01). Moreover, the odds of exercise behavior adoption increased with self-efficacy (OR=1.35, 95% CI=1.20-1.52, p<0.01), and decreased with perceived barriers (OR=0.90, 95% CI=0.84-0.97, p<0.01). It is essential to increase perceived self-efficacy and reduce perceived barriers to promote EB in infertile women. Consequently, health professionals should develop or adopt appropriate strategies to decrease barriers and increase self-efficacy to enhance exercise behavior in this group of women.

Keywords: infertility, women, exercise, osteoporosis

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Authors: Naragain Phumchusri, Kittitach Pongpairoj

Abstract:

Overbooking is a very useful revenue management technique that could help reduce costs caused by either undersales or oversales. In this paper, we propose an overbooking model for two types of cars that can minimize the total cost for car rental service. With two types of cars, there is an upgrade possibility for lower type to upper type. This makes the model more complex than one type of cars scenario. We have found that convexity can be proved in this case. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters is conducted to observe the effects of relevant parameters on the optimal solution. Model simplification is proposed using multiple linear regression analysis, which can help estimate the optimal overbooking level using appropriate independent variables. The results show that the overbooking level from multiple linear regression model is relatively close to the optimal solution (with the adjusted R-squared value of at least 72.8%). To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, the total cost was compared with the case where the decision maker uses a naïve method for the overbooking level. It was found that the total cost from optimal solution is only 0.5 to 1 percent (on average) lower than the cost from regression model, while it is approximately 67% lower than the cost obtained by the naïve method. It indicates that our proposed simplification method using regression analysis can effectively perform in estimating the overbooking level.

Keywords: overbooking, car rental industry, revenue management, stochastic model

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Authors: W. Hasan, H. Farhat, A. Alhilo, L. Tamimi

Abstract:

Oil in water (O/W) emulsions are utilized extensively for cooling and lubricating cutting tools during parts machining. A robust Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) thermal-surfactants model, which provides a useful platform for exploring complex emulsions’ characteristics under variety of flow conditions, is used here for the study of the fluid behavior during conventional tools cooling. The transient thermal capabilities of the model are employed for simulating the effects of the flow conditions of O/W emulsions on the cooling of cutting tools. The model results show that the temperature outcome is slightly affected by reversing the direction of upper plate (workpiece). On the other hand, an important increase in effective viscosity is seen which supports better lubrication during the work.

Keywords: hybrid lattice Boltzmann method, Gunstensen model, thermal, surfactant-covered droplet, Marangoni stress

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Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

Abstract:

The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

Abstract:

Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

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