Search results for: economic project
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 11313

Search results for: economic project

2163 Count Data Regression Modeling: An Application to Spontaneous Abortion in India

Authors: Prashant Verma, Prafulla K. Swain, K. K. Singh, Mukti Khetan

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Objective: In India, around 20,000 women die every year due to abortion-related complications. In the modelling of count variables, there is sometimes a preponderance of zero counts. This article concerns the estimation of various count regression models to predict the average number of spontaneous abortion among women in the Punjab state of India. It also assesses the factors associated with the number of spontaneous abortions. Materials and methods: The study included 27,173 married women of Punjab obtained from the DLHS-4 survey (2012-13). Poisson regression (PR), Negative binomial (NB) regression, zero hurdle negative binomial (ZHNB), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models were employed to predict the average number of spontaneous abortions and to identify the determinants affecting the number of spontaneous abortions. Results: Statistical comparisons among four estimation methods revealed that the ZINB model provides the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions. Antenatal care (ANC) place, place of residence, total children born to a woman, woman's education and economic status were found to be the most significant factors affecting the occurrence of spontaneous abortion. Conclusions: The study offers a practical demonstration of techniques designed to handle count variables. Statistical comparisons among four estimation models revealed that the ZINB model provided the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions and is recommended to be used to predict the number of spontaneous abortions. The study suggests that women receive institutional Antenatal care to attain limited parity. It also advocates promoting higher education among women in Punjab, India.

Keywords: count data, spontaneous abortion, Poisson model, negative binomial model, zero hurdle negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
2162 Application of Digital Technologies as Tools for Transformative Agricultural Science Instructional Delivery in Secondary Schools

Authors: Cajethan U. Ugwuoke

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Agriculture is taught in secondary schools to develop skills in students which will empower them to contribute to national economic development. Unfortunately, our educational system emphasizes the application of conventional teaching methods in delivering instructions, which fails to produce students competent enough to carry out agricultural production. This study was therefore aimed at examining the application of digital technologies as tools for transformative instructional delivery. Four specific purposes, research questions and hypotheses guided the study. The study adopted a descriptive survey research design where 80 subjects representing 64 teachers of agriculture and 16 principals in the Udenu local government area of Enugu State, Nigeria, participated in the study. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data. The assumption of normality was ascertained by subjecting the data collected to a normality test. Data collected were later subjected to mean, Pearson product-moment correlation, ANOVA and t-test to answer the research questions and test the hypotheses at a 5% significant level. The result shows that the application of digital technologies helps to reduce learners’ boredom (3.52.75), improves learners’ performance (3.63.51), and is used as a visual aid for learners (3.56.61), among others. There was a positive, strong and significant relationship between the application of digital technologies and effective instructional delivery (+.895, p=.001<.05, F=17.73), competency of teachers to the application of digital technologies and effective instructional delivery (+998, p=.001<0.5, F=16263.45), and frequency of the application of digital technologies and effective instructional delivery (+.999, p=.001<.05, F=31436.14). There was no evidence of autocorrelation and multicollinearity in the regression models between the application of digital technologies and effective instructional delivery (2.03, Tolerance=1.00, VIF=1.00), competency of teachers in the application of digital technologies and effective instructional delivery (2.38, Tolerance=1.00, VIF=1.00) and frequency of the application of digital technologies and effective instructional delivery (2.00, Tolerance=1.00, VIF=1.00). Digital technologies should be therefore applied in teaching to facilitate effective instructional delivery in agriculture.

Keywords: agricultural science, digital technologies, instructional delivery, learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
2161 The Growth of E-Commerce and Online Dispute Resolution in Developing Nations: An Analysis

Authors: Robin V. Cupido

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Online dispute resolution has been identified in many countries as a viable alternative for resolving conflicts which have arisen in the so-called digital age. This system of dispute resolution is developing alongside the Internet, and as new types of transactions are made possible by our increased connectivity, new ways of resolving disputes must be explored. Developed nations, such as the United States of America and the European Union, have been involved in creating these online dispute resolution mechanisms from the outset, and currently have sophisticated systems in place to deal with conflicts arising in a number of different fields, such as e-commerce, domain name disputes, labour disputes and conflicts arising from family law. Specifically, in the field of e-commerce, the Internet’s borderless nature has served as a way to promote cross-border trade, and has created a global marketplace. Participation in this marketplace boosts a country’s economy, as new markets are now available, and consumers can transact from anywhere in the world. It would be especially advantageous for developing nations to be a part of this global marketplace, as it could stimulate much-needed investment in these nations, and encourage international co-operation and trade. However, for these types of transactions to proliferate, an effective system for resolving the inevitable disputes arising from such an increase in e-commerce is needed. Online dispute resolution scholarship and practice is flourishing in developed nations, and it is clear that the gap is widening between developed and developing nations in this regard. The potential for implementing online dispute resolution in developing countries has been discussed, but there are a number of obstacles that have thus far prevented its continued development. This paper aims to evaluate the various political, infrastructural and socio-economic challenges faced in developing nations, and to question how these have impacted the acceptance and development of online dispute resolution, scholarship and training of online dispute resolution practitioners and, ultimately, developing nations’ readiness to participate in cross-border e-commerce.

Keywords: developing countries, feasibility, online dispute resolution, progress

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2160 NDVI as a Measure of Change in Forest Biomass

Authors: Amritansh Agarwal, Tejaswi Agarwal

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Forest ecosystem plays very important role in the global carbon cycle. It stores about 80% of all above ground and 40% of all below ground terrestrial organic carbon. There is much interest in the extent of tropical forests and their rates of deforestation for two reasons: greenhouse gas contributions and the impact of profoundly negative biodiversity. Deforestation has many ecological, social and economic consequences, one of which is the loss of biological diversity. The rapid deployment of remote sensing (RS) satellites and development of RS analysis techniques in the past three decades have provided a reliable, effective, and practical way to characterize terrestrial ecosystem properties. Global estimates of tropical deforestation vary widely and range from 50,000 to 170,000 km2 /yr Recent FAO tropical deforestation estimates for 1990–1995 cite 116,756km2 / yr globally. Remote Sensing can prove to be a very useful tool in monitoring of forests and associated deforestation to a sufficient level of accuracy without the need of physically surveying the forest areas as many of them are physically inaccessible. The methodology for the assessment of forest cover using digital image processing (ERDAS) has been followed. The satellite data for the study was procured from USGS website in the digital format. While procuring the satellite data, care was taken to ensure that the data was cloud and aerosol free by making using of FLAASH atmospheric correction technique. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been used as a numerical indicator of the reduction in ground biomass. NDVI = (near I.R - Red)/ (near I.R + Red). After calculating the NDVI variations and associated mean we have analysed the change in ground biomass. Through this paper we have tried to indicate the rate of deforestation over a given period of time by comparing the forest cover at different time intervals. With the help of remote sensing and GIS techniques it is clearly shows that the total forest cover is continuously degrading and transforming into various land use/land cover category.

Keywords: remote sensing, deforestation, supervised classification, NDVI change detection

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2159 A Critical Review on Temperature Affecting the Morpho-Physiological, Hormonal and Genetic Control of Branching in Chrysanthemum

Authors: S. Ahmad, C. Yuan, Q. Zhang

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The assorted architectural plasticity of a plant is majorly specified by stooling, a phenomenon tackled by a combination of developmental, environmental and hormonal accelerators of lateral buds. Chrysanthemums (Chrysanthemum morifolium) are one of the most economically important ornamental plants worldwide on the account of having plentiful architectural patterns, diverse shapes and attractive colors. Side branching is the major determinant guaranteeing the consistent demand of cut chrysanthemum in flower industry. Presence of immense number of axillary branches devalues the economic importance of this imperative plant and is a major challenge for mum growers to hold a stake in the cut flower market. Restricting branches to a minimum level, or no branches at all, is the dire need of the day in order to introducing novelty in cut chrysanthemums. Temperature is a potent factor which affects largely the escalation, development of chrysanthemum, and also the genetic expression of various vegetative traits like branching. It affects differently the developmental characteristics and phenotypic expressions of inherent qualities, thereby playing a significant role in differentiating the developmental responses in different cultivars of chrysanthemum. A detailed study pertaining to the affect of temperature on branching in chrysanthemum is a clear lacking throughout the literature on mums. Therefore, searching with temperature as an effective means of reducing side branching to a desired level could be an influencing extension of struggles about how to nullify stooling. This requires plenty of research in order to reveal the extended penetration of temperature in manipulating the genetic control of various important traits like branching, which is a burning issue now a days in producing cut flowers in chrysanthemum. The present review will highlight the impact of temperature on branching control mechanism in chrysanthemum at morpho-physiological, hormonal and molecular levels.

Keywords: branching, chrysanthemum, genetic control, hormonal, morpho-physiological, temperature

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2158 Synthetic Classicism: A Machine Learning Approach to the Recognition and Design of Circular Pavilions

Authors: Federico Garrido, Mostafa El Hayani, Ahmed Shams

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The exploration of the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in architecture is still embryonic, however, its latent capacity to change design disciplines is significant. 'Synthetic Classism' is a research project that questions the underlying aspects of classically organized architecture not just in aesthetic terms but also from a geometrical and morphological point of view, intending to generate new architectural information using historical examples as source material. The main aim of this paper is to explore the uses of artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms in architectural design while creating a coherent narrative to be contained within a design process. The purpose is twofold: on one hand, to develop and train machine learning algorithms to produce architectural information of small pavilions and on the other, to synthesize new information from previous architectural drawings. These algorithms intend to 'interpret' graphical information from each pavilion and then generate new information from it. The procedure, once these algorithms are trained, is the following: parting from a line profile, a synthetic 'front view' of a pavilion is generated, then using it as a source material, an isometric view is created from it, and finally, a top view is produced. Thanks to GAN algorithms, it is also possible to generate Front and Isometric views without any graphical input as well. The final intention of the research is to produce isometric views out of historical information, such as the pavilions from Sebastiano Serlio, James Gibbs, or John Soane. The idea is to create and interpret new information not just in terms of historical reconstruction but also to explore AI as a novel tool in the narrative of a creative design process. This research also challenges the idea of the role of algorithmic design associated with efficiency or fitness while embracing the possibility of a creative collaboration between artificial intelligence and a human designer. Hence the double feature of this research, both analytical and creative, first by synthesizing images based on a given dataset and then by generating new architectural information from historical references. We find that the possibility of creatively understand and manipulate historic (and synthetic) information will be a key feature in future innovative design processes. Finally, the main question that we propose is whether an AI could be used not just to create an original and innovative group of simple buildings but also to explore the possibility of fostering a novel architectural sensibility grounded on the specificities on the architectural dataset, either historic, human-made or synthetic.

Keywords: architecture, central pavilions, classicism, machine learning

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2157 Kinetics of Sugar Losses in Hot Water Blanching of Water Yam (Dioscorea alata)

Authors: Ayobami Solomon Popoola

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Yam is majorly a carbohydrate food grown in most parts of the world. It could be boiled, fried or roasted for consumption in a variety of ways. Blanching is an established heat pre-treatment given to fruits and vegetables prior to further processing such as dehydration, canning, freezing etc. Losses of soluble solids during blanching has been a great problem because a reasonable quantity of the water-soluble nutrients are inevitably leached into the blanching water. Without blanching, the high residual levels of reducing sugars after extended storage produce a dark, bitter-tasting product because of the Maillard reactions of reducing sugars at frying temperature. Measurement and prediction of such losses are necessary for economic efficiency in production and to establish the level of effluent treatment of the blanching water. This paper aims at resolving this problem by investigating the effects of cube size and temperature on the rate of diffusional losses of reducing sugars and total sugars during hot water blanching of water-yam. The study was carried out using four temperature levels (65, 70, 80 and 90 °C) and two cubes sizes (0.02 m³ and 0.03 m³) at 4 times intervals (5, 10, 15 and 20 mins) respectively. Obtained data were fitted into Fick’s non-steady equation from which diffusion coefficients (Da) were obtained. The Da values were subsequently fitted into Arrhenius plot to obtain activation energies (Ea-values) for diffusional losses. The diffusion co-efficient were independent of cube size and time but highly temperature dependent. The diffusion coefficients were ≥ 1.0 ×10⁻⁹ m²s⁻¹ for reducing sugars and ≥ 5.0 × 10⁻⁹ m²s⁻¹ for total sugars. The Ea values ranged between 68.2 to 73.9 KJmol⁻¹ and 7.2 to 14.30 KJmol⁻¹ for reducing sugars and total sugars losses respectively. Predictive equations for estimating amount of reducing sugars and total sugars with blanching time of water-yam at various temperatures were also presented. The equation could be valuable in process design and optimization. However, amount of other soluble solids that might have leached into the water along with reducing and total sugars during blanching was not investigated in the study.

Keywords: blanching, kinetics, sugar losses, water yam

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2156 Investigation of the Effects of 10-Week Nordic Hamstring Exercise Training and Subsequent Detraining on Plasma Viscosity and Oxidative Stress Levels in Healthy Young Men

Authors: H. C. Ozdamar , O. Kilic-Erkek, H. E. Akkaya, E. Kilic-Toprak, M. Bor-Kucukatay

Abstract:

Nordic hamstring exercise (NHE) is used to increase hamstring muscle strength, prevent injuries. The aim of this study was to reveal the acute, long-term effects of 10-week NHE, followed by 5, 10-week detraining on anthropometric measurements, flexibility, anaerobic power, muscle architecture, damage, fatigue, oxidative stress, plasma viscosity (PV), blood lactate levels. 40 sedentary, healthy male volunteers underwent 10 weeks of progressive NHE followed by 5, 10 weeks of detraining. Muscle architecture was determined by ultrasonography, stiffness by strain elastography. Anaerobic power was assessed by double-foot standing, long jump, vertical jump, flexibility by sit-lie, hamstring flexibility tests. Creatine kinase activity, oxidant/antioxidant parameters were measured from venous blood by a commercial kit, whereas PV was determined using a cone-plate viscometer. The blood lactate level was measured from the fingertip. NHE allowed subjects to lose weight, this effect was reversed by detraining for 5 weeks. Exercise caused an increase in knee angles measured by a goniometer, which wasn’t affected by detraining. 10-week NHE caused a partially reversed increase in anaerobic performance upon detraining. NHE resulted in increment of biceps femoris long head (BFub) area, pennation angle, which was reversed by detraining of 10-weeks. Blood lactate levels, muscle pain, fatigue were increased after each exercise session. NHE didn’t change oxidant/antioxidant parameters; 5-week detraining resulted in an increase in total oxidant capacity (TOC) and oxidative stress index (OSI). Detraining of 10 weeks caused a reduction of these parameters. Acute exercise caused a reduction in PV at 1 to 10 weeks. Pre-exercise PV measured on the 10th week was lower than the basal value. Detraining caused the increment of PV. The results may guide the selection of the exercise type to increase performance and muscle strength. Knowing how much of the gains will be lost after a period of detraining can contribute to raising awareness of the continuity of the exercise. This work was supported by PAU Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit (Project number: 2018SABE034)

Keywords: anaerobic power, detraining, Nordic hamstring exercise, oxidative stress, plasma viscosity

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2155 Prevalence of Intestinal Parasite among Patients Attending Two Medical Centers in Jos

Authors: G. I. Ozumba, V. A. Pam, V. A. Adejoh, S. A. Odey

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Intestinal parasitic infections are the most common parasitic infections of the man commonly resulting in morbidity and mortality in infected individuals. Two hundred (200) patients from two medical centers were randomly examined for intestinal parasites using normal saline wet mount and formol-ether concentration methods. One hundred patients each were examined from Plateau State Specialist Hospital (PSSH) and Vom Christian Hospital (VCH) respectively. Of the 100 patients examined at PSSH, (22.0%) tested positive for intestinal parasites, while only (6.0%) was reported for VCH. Ascaris lumbricoides and Taenia spp. were significantly (P value=0.0002726) the most prevalent intestinal parasites in PSSH with (31.8%) respectively. Balantidium coli and Entamoeba histolytica were the least prevalent at (4.5%) respectively. Hookworm (50.0%) was significantly (P<0.0001) the most prevalent intestinal parasite in VCH, followed by A. lumbricoides (33.3%), while Taenia spp. (16.7%) was the least. Female subjects 12(54.5%) were more infected than their male 10(45.4%) counterparts in PSSH. The difference (P value=0.3633) in the infection between female and male subjects at PSSH was not significant. Female subjects were significantly (P value=0.0008586) more infected 4(66.7%) than male subjects 2(33.3%) at VCH. The prevalence of intestinal parasite in relation to age in PSSH shows a significantly (P-value = 0.02573) high level among age group 11-20years 9(36.0%). On the contrary, the high prevalence of intestinal parasites among age groups 31-40 years 2(9.1%) at VCH was not significant (P value=0.1595). The result in relation to a water source in patients attending PSSH shows that the boreholes sources (66.7%) had a significantly (P<0.0001) high prevalence of intestinal parasites, while the least prevalence was observed in tap source (7.9%). Results from VCH shows that streams/rivers (16.7%) revealed high prevalence, while the tap source was least parasitized (10.0%). There was no significant difference (P value=0.436) in the prevalence of parasites in relation to the water source at VCH. This prevalence is directly related to the sanitary condition, socio-economic status, educational level, the age and hygienic habits of the patients. Thus, necessary sanitary policies, awareness, screening and de-worming exercises and occasional check of intestinal parasites are recommended.

Keywords: intestinal parasites, Jos, patients, prevalence

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2154 Prioritizing Forest Conservation Strategies Using a Multi-Attribute Decision Model to Address Concerns with the Survival of the Endangered Dragon Tree (Dracaena ombet Kotschy and Peyr.)

Authors: Tesfay Gidey, Emiru Birhane, Ashenafi Manaye, Hailemariam Kassa, Tesfay Atsbha, Negasi Solomon, Hadgu Hishe, Aklilu Negussie, Petr Madera, Jose G. Borges

Abstract:

The globally endangered Dracaena ombet is one of the ten dragon multipurpose tree species in arid ecosystems. Anthropogenic and natural factors are now impacting the sustainability of the species. This study was conducted to prioritize criteria and alternative strategies for the conservation of the species using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model by involving all relevant stakeholders in the Desa'a dry Afromontane forest in northern Ethiopia. Information about the potential alternative strategies and the criteria for their evaluation was first collected from experts, personal experiences, and literature reviews. Afterward, they were validated using stakeholders' focus group discussions. Five candidate strategies with three evaluation criteria were considered for prioritization using the AHP techniques. The overall priority ranking value of the stakeholders showed that the ecological criterion was deemed as the most essential factor for the choice of alternative strategies, followed by the economic and social criteria. The minimum cut-off strategy, combining exclosures with the collection of only 5% of plant parts from the species, soil and water conservation, and silviculture interventions, was selected as the best alternative strategy for sustainable D. ombet conservation. The livelihood losses due to the selected strategy should be compensated by the collection of non-timber forest products, poultry farming, home gardens, rearing small ruminants, beekeeping, and agroforestry. This approach may be extended to study other dragon tree species and explore strategies for the conservation of other arid ecosystems.

Keywords: conservation strategies, analytical hierarchy process model, Desa'a forest, endangered species, Ethiopia, overexploitation

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2153 Impact of Gold Mining on Crop Production, Livelihood and Environmental Sustainability in West Africa in the Context of Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Authors: Yusif Habib

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The Volta River Basin (VRB) is a transboundary resource shared by Six (6) the West African States. It’s utilization spans across irrigation, hydropower generation, domestic/household water use, transportation, industrial processing, among others. Simultaneously, mineral resources such as gold are mined within the VRB catchment. Typically, the extraction/mining operation is earth-surface excavation; known as Artisanal and Small-scale mining. We developed a conceptual framework in the context of Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus to delineate the trade-offs and synergies between the mineral extractive operation’s impact on Agricultural systems, specifically, cereal crops (e.g. Maize, Millet, and Rice) and the environment (water and soil quality, deforestation, etc.) on the VRB. Thus, the study examined the trade-offs and synergies through the WEF nexus lens to explore the extent of an eventual overarching mining preference for gold exploration with high economic returns as opposed to the presumably low yearly harvest and household income from food crops production to inform intervention prioritization. Field survey (household, expert, and stakeholder consultation), bibliometric analysis/literature review, scenario, and simulation models, including land-use land cover (LULC) analyses, were conducted. The selected study area(s) in Ghana was the location where the mineral extractive operation’s presence and impact are widespread co-exist with the Agricultural systems. Overall, the study proposes mechanisms of the virtuous cycle through FEW Nexus instead of the presumably existing vicious cycle to inform decision making and policy implementation.

Keywords: agriculture, environmental sustainability, gold Mining, synergies, trade-off, water-energy-food nexus

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2152 Acculturation Impact on Mental Health Among Arab Americans

Authors: Sally Kafelghazal

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Introduction: Arab Americans, who include immigrants, refugees, or U.S. born persons of Middle Eastern or North African descent, may experience significant difficulties during acculturation to Western society. Influential stressors include relocation, loss of social support, language barriers, and economic factors, all of which can impact mental health. There is limited research investigating the effects of acculturation on the mental health of the Arab American population. Objectives: The purpose of this study is to identify ways in which acculturation impacts the mental health of Arab Americans, specifically the development of depression and anxiety. Method: A literature search was conducted using PubMed and PsycArticles (ProQuest), utilizing the following search terms: “Arab Americans,” “Arabs,” “mental health,” “depression,” “anxiety,” “acculturation.” Thirty-nine articles were identified and of those, nine specifically investigated the relationship between acculturation and mental health in Arab Americans. Three of the nine focused exclusively on depression. Results: Several risk factors were identified that contribute to poor mental health associated with acculturation, which include immigrant or refugee status, facing discrimination, and religious ideology. Protective factors include greater levels of acculturation, being U.S. born, and greater heritage identity. Greater mental health disorders were identified in Arab Americans compared to normative samples, perhaps particularly depression; none of the articles specifically addressed anxiety. Conclusion: The current research findings support the potential association between the process of acculturation and greater levels of mental health disorders in Arab Americans. However, the diversity of the Arab American population makes it difficult to draw consistent conclusions. Further research needs to be conducted in order to assess which subgroups in the Arab American population are at highest risk for developing new or exacerbating existing mental health disorders in order to devise more effective interventions.

Keywords: arab americans, arabs, mental health, anxiety, depression, acculturation

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2151 Structural Challenges of Social Integration of Immigrants in Iran: Investigating the Status of Providing Citizenship and Social Services

Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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In terms of its geopolitical position, Iran has been one of the main centers of migration movements in the world in recent decades. However, the policy makers' lack of preparation in completing the cycle of social integration of these immigrants, especially the second and third generation, has caused these people to always be prone to leave the country and immigrate to developed and industrialized countries. In this research, the issue of integration of immigrants in Iran from the perspective of four indicators, "Identity Documents", "Access to Banking Services", "Access to Health and Treatment Services" and "Obtaining a Driver's License" will be analyzed. The research method is descriptive-analytical. To collect information, library and document sources in the field of laws and regulations related to immigrants' rights in Iran, semi-structured interviews with experts have been used. The investigations of this study show that none of the residence documents of immigrants in Iran guarantee the full enjoyment of basic citizenship rights for them. In fact, the function of many of these identity documents, such as the census card, educational support card, etc., is only to prevent crossing the border, and none of them guarantee the basic rights of citizenship. Therefore, for many immigrants, the difference between legality and illegality is only in the risk of crossing the border, and this has led to the spread of the habit of illegal presence for them. Despite this, it seems that there is no clear and coherent policy framework around the issue of foreign immigrants in the country. This policy incoherence can be clearly seen in the diversity and plurality of identity and legal documents of the citizens present in the country and the policy maker's lack of planning to integrate and organize the identity of this huge group. Examining the differences and socioeconomic inequalities between immigrants and the native Iranian population shows that immigrants have been poorly integrated into the structures of Iranian society from an economic and social point of view.

Keywords: immigrants, social integration, citizen services, structural inequality

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2150 Assessing the Impact of Construction Projects on Disabled Accessibility and Inclusion

Authors: Yasser Aboel-Magd

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This research addresses the critical issue of accessibility for individuals with special needs and the broader implications of disability on one's ability to lead an independent and integrated life within society. It highlights the consequences of injury, illness, or disability not only on the physical level but also on psychological, social, educational, economic, and functional aspects of life. The study emphasizes the importance of inclusive design in urban spaces, reflecting on how a society's treatment of individuals with disabilities serves as a measure of its progress. The research delves into the challenges faced by people with special needs in the Kingdom, where, despite advancements in various sectors, there is a noticeable lack of accommodating public opportunities for this significant demographic. It argues for the necessity of a Saudi building code that considers the needs of a diverse population during the design phase. The paper discusses the role of urban space as a fundamental element in urban formation and its impact on the societal integration of individuals with special needs. The study explores a variety of inclusive design principles, ranging from physical features like ramps and tactile paving to digital and cognitive accessibility measures such as screen readers, closed captions, plain language, and visual aids. It also considers the impact of wayfinding and appropriate lighting design on the orientation and assistance of individuals within urban spaces at the lowest cost. The researchers connect inclusive design with sustainable practices, advocating for environments that are not only environmentally friendly but also adaptable and lasting. The paper concludes with the assertion that the integration of accessibility, universal design, and sustainability signifies a society's commitment to inclusivity and the empowerment of all individuals, paving the way for a future where everyone can participate fully and independently in society.

Keywords: accessibility, inclusive design, Saudi building code, disability inclusion, socioeconomic progress

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2149 Buy-and-Hold versus Alternative Strategies: A Comparison of Market-Timing Techniques

Authors: Jonathan J. Burson

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With the rise of virtually costless, mobile-based trading platforms, stock market trading activity has increased significantly over the past decade, particularly for the millennial generation. This increased stock market attention, combined with the recent market turmoil due to the economic upset caused by COVID-19, make the topics of market-timing and forecasting particularly relevant. While the overall stock market saw an unprecedented, historically-long bull market from March 2009 to February 2020, the end of that bull market reignited a search by investors for a way to reduce risk and increase return. Similar searches for outperformance occurred in the early, and late 2000’s as the Dotcom bubble burst and the Great Recession led to years of negative returns for mean-variance, index investors. Extensive research has been conducted on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, and other techniques—all using different methodologies and investment periods—in pursuit of higher returns with lower risk. The enormous variety of timeframes, data, and methodologies used by the diverse forecasting methods makes it difficult to compare the outcome of each method directly to other methods. This paper establishes a process to evaluate the market-timing methods in an apples-to-apples manner based on simplicity, performance, and feasibility. Preliminary findings show that certain technical analysis models provide a higher return with lower risk when compared to the buy-and-hold method and to other market-timing strategies. Furthermore, technical analysis models tend to be easier for individual investors both in terms of acquiring the data and in analyzing it, making technical analysis-based market-timing methods the preferred choice for retail investors.

Keywords: buy-and-hold, forecast, market-timing, probit, technical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
2148 A Proposed Inclusive Motor Skill Intervention Programme for Pre-schoolers in Low Resources Areas in Preparation of School Readiness

Authors: J. Van der Walt, N. A. Plastow, M. Unger

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Gross and fine motor skill difficulties among children affect their ability to learn and progress in school. Research indicates that children in low socio-economic areas are at a higher risk of motor skill difficulties, while therapy resources are limited. The Hopscotch motor skill programme is a well-researched accessible in-school intervention developed by occupational and physiotherapists through complex intervention development. The development stage of the complex intervention development model firstly included a prevalence study in a low-resourced area in the West Coast of South Africa, indicating a high prevalence with significant motor skill difficulties among pre-school children at 14.5% with fine motor skill difficulties at 24.6%. A scoping review identifies motor skill interventions for pre-school children and a proposed a framework of fundamental concepts to consider when developing a motor skill intervention. a Delphi-study considered the framework and encouraged collaboration between therapists and educators to make the programme accessible, resource and cost effective, specifically geared towards a rural, low resourced area. The results from the Delphi study, together with the proposed framework from the scoping review was used to develop the Hopscotch programme, adopting a task-shifting approach. The eight-week small-group programme is facilitated by teachers with the support of therapists. The programme aims to improve the motor skills of pre-school aged children with motor skill difficulties to promote academic readiness through obstacle courses, ball skill games and fine motor games and crafts. A randomised controlled trial is planned as a next stage to determine the preliminary effect of the programme on the motor and early academic skills of pre-school children.

Keywords: accesible learning, motor skill intervention, school readiness, task shifting

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
2147 Rule of Natural Synthetic Chemical on Lead Immobilization in Polluted Sandy Soils

Authors: Saud S. AL Oud

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Soil contamination can have dire consequences, such as loss of ecosystem and agricultural productivity, diminished food chain quality, tainted water resources, economic loss, and human and animal illness. In recent years, attention has focused on the development of in situ immobilization methods that are generally less expensive and disruptive to the natural landscape, hydrology, and ecosystems than are conventional excavation treatments, and disposal methods. Soft, inexpensive, and efficient agents were used in the present research to immobilize Pb in polluted sandy soil. Five agents, either naturally occurring or chemically prepared, were used for this purpose. These agents include; iron ore (72% Fe2O3), cement, a mixture of calcite and shale rich in aluminum (CASH), and two chemically prepared amorphous materials of Al- and Fe-gel. These agents were selected due to their ability to specifically adsorb heavy metals onto their surface OH functional groups, which provide permanent immobilization of metal pollutants and reduce the fraction that is potentially mobile or bioavailable. The efficiency of these agents in immobilizing Pb were examined in a laboratory experiment, in which two rates (0.5 and 1.0 %) of tested agents were added to the polluted soils containing total contents of Pb ranging from 17.4-49.8 mg/kg. The results show that all immobilizing agents were succeed in minimizing the mobile form of Pb as extracted by 0.5 N HNO3. The extracted Pb decreased with increasing addition rate of immobilizing agents. At addition rate of 0.5%, HNO3 extractable-Pb varied widely depending on the agents type and were found to represent 21-67% of the initial values. All agents were able to reduce mobile Pb to levels lower than that (2.0 mg/kg) reported for non polluted soil, particularly for soils had initials of mobile Pb less than 10 mg/kg. Both iron oxide and CASH had the highest efficiency in immobilizing Pb, followed by cement, then amorphous materials of Fe and Al hydroxides.

Keywords: soil, synthetic chemical, lead, immobilization, polluted

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2146 Antibacterial Studies on Cellulolytic Bacteria for Termite Control

Authors: Essam A. Makky, Chan Cai Wen, Muna Jalal, Mashitah M. Yusoff

Abstract:

Termites are considered as important pests that could cause severe wood damage and economic losses in urban, agriculture and forest of Malaysia. The ability of termites to degrade cellulose depends on association of gut cellulolytic microflora or better known as mutual symbionts. With the idea of disrupting the mutual symbiotic association, better pest control practices can be attained. This study is aimed to isolate cellulolytic bacteria from the gut of termites and carry out antibacterial studies for the termite. Confirmation of cellulase activity is done by qualitative and quantitative methods. Impacts of antibiotics and their combinations, as well as heavy metals and disinfectants, are conducted by using disc diffusion method. Effective antibacterial agents are then subjected for termite treatment to study the effectiveness of the agents as termiticides. 24 cellulolytic bacteria are isolated, purified and screened from the gut of termites. All isolates were identified as Gram-negative with either rod or cocci in shape. For antibacterial studies result, isolates were found to be 100% sensitive to 4 antibiotics (rifampicin, tetracycline, gentamycin, and neomycin), 2 heavy metals (cadmium and mercury) and 3 disinfectants (lactic acid, formalin, and hydrogen peroxide). 22 out of 36 antibiotic combinations showed synergistic effect while 15 antibiotic combinations showed an antagonistic effect on isolates. The 2 heavy metals and 3 disinfectants that showed 100% effectiveness, as well as 22 antibiotic combinations, that showed synergistic effect were used for termite control. Among the 27 selected antibacterial agents, 12 of them were found to be effective to kill all the termites within 1 to 6 days. Mercury, lactic acid, formalin and hydrogen peroxide were found to be the most effective termiticides in which all termites were killed within 1 day only. These effective antibacterial agents possess a great potential to be a new application to control the termite pest species in the future.

Keywords: antibacterial, cellulase, termicide, termites

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2145 Development of a Test Plant for Parabolic Trough Solar Collectors Characterization

Authors: Nelson Ponce Jr., Jonas R. Gazoli, Alessandro Sete, Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Valério L. Borges, Moacir A. S. de Andrade

Abstract:

The search for increased efficiency in generation systems has been of great importance in recent years to reduce the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. For clean energy sources, such as the generation systems that use concentrated solar power technology, this efficiency improvement impacts a lower investment per kW, improving the project’s viability. For the specific case of parabolic trough solar concentrators, their performance is strongly linked to their geometric precision of assembly and the individual efficiencies of their main components, such as parabolic mirrors and receiver tubes. Thus, for accurate efficiency analysis, it should be conducted empirically, looking for mounting and operating conditions like those observed in the field. The Brazilian power generation and distribution company Eletrobras Furnas, through the R&D program of the National Agency of Electrical Energy, has developed a plant for testing parabolic trough concentrators located in Aparecida de Goiânia, in the state of Goiás, Brazil. The main objective of this test plant is the characterization of the prototype concentrator that is being developed by the company itself in partnership with Eudora Energia, seeking to optimize it to obtain the same or better efficiency than the concentrators of this type already known commercially. This test plant is a closed pipe system where a pump circulates a heat transfer fluid, also calledHTF, in the concentrator that is being characterized. A flow meter and two temperature transmitters, installed at the inlet and outlet of the concentrator, record the parameters necessary to know the power absorbed by the system and then calculate its efficiency based on the direct solar irradiation available during the test period. After the HTF gains heat in the concentrator, it flows through heat exchangers that allow the acquired energy to be dissipated into the ambient. The goal is to keep the concentrator inlet temperature constant throughout the desired test period. The developed plant performs the tests in an autonomous way, where the operator must enter the HTF flow rate in the control system, the desired concentrator inlet temperature, and the test time. This paper presents the methodology employed for design and operation, as well as the instrumentation needed for the development of a parabolic trough test plant, being a guideline for standardization facilities.

Keywords: parabolic trough, concentrated solar power, CSP, solar power, test plant, energy efficiency, performance characterization, renewable energy

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2144 A Study on the Construction Process and Sustainable Renewal Development of High-Rise Residential Areas in Chongqing (1978-2023)

Authors: Xiaoting Jing, Ling Huang

Abstract:

After the reform and opening up, Chongqing has formed far more high-rise residential areas than other cities in its more than 40 years of urban construction. High-rise residential areas have become one of the main modern living models in Chongqing and an important carrier reflecting the city's high quality of life. Reviewing the construction process and renewal work helps understand the characteristics of high-rise residential areas in Chongqing at different stages, clarify current development demands, and look forward to the focus of future renewal work. Based on socio-economic development and policy background, the article sorts the construction process of high-rise residential areas in Chongqing into four stages: the early experimental construction period of high-rise residential areas (1978-1996), the rapid start-up period of high-rise commodity housing construction (1997-2006), the large-scale construction period of high-rise commodity housing and public rental housing (2007-2014), and the period of renewal and renovation of high-rise residential areas and step-by-step construction of quality commodity housing (2015-present). Based on the construction demands and main construction types of each stage, the article summarizes that the construction of high-rise residential areas in Chongqing features large scale, high speed, and high density. It points out that a large number of high-rise residential areas built after 2000 will become important objects of renewal and renovation in the future. Based on existing renewal work experience, it is urgent to explore a path for sustainable renewal and development in terms of policy mechanisms, digital supervision, and renewal and renovation models, leading the high-rise living in Chongqing toward high-quality development.

Keywords: high-rise residential areas, construction process, renewal and renovation, Chongqing

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2143 Construction Innovation: Support for 3D Printing House

Authors: Andrea Palazzo, Daniel Macek, Veronika Malinova

Abstract:

Contour processing is the new technology challenge for architects and construction companies. The many advantages it promises make it one of the most interesting solutions for construction in terms of automation of building processes. The technology for 3D printing houses offers many application possibilities, from low-cost construction, to being considered by NASA for visionary projects as a good solution for building settlements on other planets. Another very important point is that clients, as architects, will no longer have many limits in design concerning ideas and creativity. The prices for real estate are constantly increasing and the lack of availability of construction materials as well as the speculation that has been created around it in 2021 is bringing prices to such a level that in the future real estate developers risk not being able to find customers for these ultra-expensive homes. Hence, this paper starts with the introduction of 3D printing, which now has the potential to gain an important position in the market, becoming a valid alternative to the classic construction process. This technology is not only beneficial from an economic point of view but it is also a great opportunity to have an impact on the environment by reducing CO2 emissions. Further on in the article we will also understand if, after the COP 26 (2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference), world governments could also push towards building technologies that reduce the waste materials that are needed to be disposed of and at the same time reduce emissions with the contribution of governmental funds. This paper will give us insight on the multiple benefits of 3D printing and emphasise the importance of finding new solutions for materials that can be used by the printer. Therefore, based on the type of material, it will be possible to understand the compatibility with current regulations and how the authorities will be inclined to support this technology. This will help to enable the rise and development of this technology in Europe and in the rest of the world on actual housing projects and not only on prototypes.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, contour crafting, development, new regulation, printing material

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2142 Chilean Social Work Students and Their Options to Access to College Financial Aid: Policy Implications on Equity and Professional Training

Authors: Oscar E. Cariceo

Abstract:

In Chile, social workers´ professional training is developed in the undergraduate level, mainly. Despite the fact that several schools have been launched Master of Social Work programs, the Bachelor in Social Work is the minimum qualification to start a professional career. In the current Chilean higher education system, there exist different financial aid options in order to guarantee equal access to higher education. These policies, which are student loans and scholarships, basically, are applied and distributed by Government agencies. They are linked to academic performance and socio-economic needs, in terms of standardized test scores and social vulnerability criteria. In addition, institutions that enroll students with high scores, also receive direct financial support. In other words, social work students must compete for the resources to pay for college tuitions and fees with other students from different programs and knowledge fields and, as a consequence, they can indirectly enhance schools´ money income. This work aims to describe the reality of social work students to access to financial aid in Chile. The analysis presents the results of the University Selection Test of students, who were accepted in social work undergraduate programs during 2014 related to their qualifications to apply to three main financial aid programs, and their contribution to attracting resources to their schools. In general, data show that social work students participate in a low proportion in the distribution of financial aid, both student loans and scholarships. Few of them reach enough scores to guarantee direct financial resources to their institutions. Therefore, this situation has deep implications on equal access to higher education for vulnerable students and affects equal access to training options for young social workers, due to the highly competitive financial aid system.

Keywords: social work, professional training, higher education, financial aid, equity

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2141 The Effect of Acute Consumption of a Nutritional Supplement Derived from Vegetable Extracts Rich in Nitrate on Athletic Performance

Authors: Giannis Arnaoutis, Dimitra Efthymiopoulou, Maria-Foivi Nikolopoulou, Yannis Manios

Abstract:

AIM: Nitrate-containing supplements have been used extensively as ergogenic in many sports. However, extract fractions from plant-based nutritional sources high in nitrate and their effect on athletic performance, has not been systematically investigated. The purpose of the present study was to examine the possible effect of acute consumption of a “smart mixture” from beetroot and rocket on exercise capacity. MATERIAL & METHODS: 12 healthy, nonsmoking, recreationally active, males (age: 25±4 years, % fat: 15.5±5.7, Fat Free Mass: 65.8±5.6 kg, VO2 max: 45.46.1 mL . kg -1 . min -1) participated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial study, in a randomized and counterbalanced order. Eligibility criteria for participation in this study included normal physical examination, and absence of any metabolic, cardiovascular, or renal disease. All participants completed a time to exhaustion cycling test at 75% of their maximum power output, twice. The subjects consumed either capsules containing 360 mg of nitrate in total or placebo capsules, in the morning, under fasted state. After 3h of passive recovery the performance test followed. Blood samples were collected upon arrival of the participants and 3 hours after the consumption of the corresponding capsules. Time until exhaustion, pre- and post-test lactate concentrations, and rate of perceived exertion for the same time points were assessed. RESULTS: Paired-sample t-test analysis found a significant difference in time to exhaustion between the trial with the nitrate consumption versus placebo [16.1±3.0 Vs 13.5±2.6 min, p=0.04] respectively. No significant differences were observed for the concentrations of lactic acid as well as for the values in the Borg scale between the two trials (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results of the present study, it appears that a nutritional supplement derived from vegetable extracts rich in nitrate, improves athletic performance in recreationally active young males. However, the precise mechanism is not clear and future studies are needed. Acknowledgment: This research has been co‐financed by the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH – CREATE – INNOVATE (project code:T2EDK-00843).

Keywords: sports performance, ergogenic supplements, nitrate, extract fractions

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2140 Variability of the X-Ray Sun during Descending Period of Solar Cycle 23

Authors: Zavkiddin Mirtoshev, Mirabbos Mirkamalov

Abstract:

We have analyzed the time series of full disk integrated soft X-ray (SXR) and hard X-ray (HXR) emission from the solar corona during 2004 January 1 to 2009 December 31, covering the descending phase of solar cycle 23. We employed the daily X-ray index (DXI) derived from X-ray observations from the Solar X-ray Spectrometer (SOXS) mission in four different energy bands: 4-5.5; 5.5-7.5 keV (SXR) and 15-20; 20-25 keV (HXR). The application of Lomb-Scargle periodogram technique to the DXI time series observed by the Silicium detector in the energy bands reveals several short and intermediate periodicities of the X-ray corona. The DXI explicitly show the periods of 13.6 days, 26.7 days, 128.5 days, 151 days, 180 days, 220 days, 270 days, 1.24 year and 1.54 year periods in SXR as well as in HXR energy bands. Although all periods are above 70% confidence level in all energy bands, they show strong power in HXR emission in comparison to SXR emission. These periods are distinctly clear in three bands but somehow not unambiguously clear in 5.5-7.5 keV band. This might be due to the presence of Ferrum and Ferrum/Niccolum line features, which frequently vary with small scale flares like micro-flares. The regular 27-day rotation and 13.5 day period of sunspots from the invisible side of the Sun are found stronger in HXR band relative to SXR band. However, flare activity Rieger periods (150 and 180 days) and near Rieger period 220 days are very strong in HXR emission which is very much expected. On the other hand, our current study reveals strong 270 day periodicity in SXR emission which may be connected with tachocline, similar to a fundamental rotation period of the Sun. The 1.24 year and 1.54 year periodicities, represented from the present research work, are well observable in both SXR as well as in HXR channels. These long-term periodicities must also have connection with tachocline and should be regarded as a consequence of variation in rotational modulation over long time scales. The 1.24 year and 1.54 year periods are also found great importance and significance in the life formation and it evolution on the Earth, and therefore they also have great astro-biological importance. We gratefully acknowledge support by the Indian Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia and the Pacific (CSSTEAP, the Centre is affiliated to the United Nations), Physical Research Laboratory (PRL) at Ahmedabad, India. This work has done under the supervision of Prof. Rajmal Jain and paper consist materials of pilot project and research part of the M. Tech program which was made during Space and Atmospheric Science Course.

Keywords: corona, flares, solar activity, X-ray emission

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2139 Petrogenesis of the Neoproterozoic Rocks of Megele Area, Asosa, Western Ethiopia

Authors: Temesgen Oljira, Olugbenga Akindeji Okunlola, Akinade Shadrach Olatunji, Dereje Ayalew, Bekele Ayele Bedada

Abstract:

The Western Ethiopian Shield (WES) is underlain by volcano-sedimentary terranes, gneissic terranes, and ophiolitic rocks intruded by different granitoid bodies. For the past few years, Neoproterozoic rocks of the Megele area in the western part of the WES have been explored. Understanding the geology of the area and assessing the mineralized area's economic potential requires petrological, geochemical, and geological characterization of the Neoproterozoic granitoids and associated metavolcanic rocks. Thus, the geological, geochemical, and petrogenetic features of Neoproterozoic granitoids and associated metavolcanic rocks were elucidated using a combination of field mapping, petrological, and geochemical study. The Megele area is part of a low-grade volcano-sedimentary zone that has been intruded by mafic (dolerite dyke) and granitoid intrusions (granodiorite, diorite, granite gneiss). The granodiorite, associated diorite, and granite gneiss are calc-alkaline, peraluminous to slightly metaluminous, S-type granitoids formed in volcanic arc subduction (VAG) to syn-collisional (syn-COLD) tectonic setting by fractionation of LREE-enriched, HREE-depleted basaltic magma with considerable crustal input. While the metabasalt is sub-alkaline (tholeiitic), metaluminous bodies are generated at the mid-oceanic ridge tectonic setting by partially melting HREE-depleted and LREE-enriched basaltic magma. The reworking of sediment-loaded crustal blocks at depth in a subduction zone resulted in the production of S-type granitoids. This basaltic magma was supplied from an LREE-enriched, HREE-depleted mantle.

Keywords: fractional crystallization, geochemistry, Megele, petrogenesis, s-type granite

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2138 Does Innovation Impact on Performance of Organizations? An Empirical Discovery

Authors: Zachary Bolo Awino

Abstract:

The need to gain and sustain a competitive advantage is overwhelming for businesses, especially now with cut throat competition. Innovation has been suggested as one way of gaining the advantage sustainably. But innovation can only happen within certain enabling environment and cultures. This study had one hypothesis: that there is no relationship between innovation and performance. This research was a cross sectional survey in which variables of interest are not controlled or manipulated. The cross sectional survey design is also appropriate for this study as it improves accuracy in generalizing findings, since it involves detailed study of a unit. Also known as one shot study, this design enhances uniform data collection and comparison across respondents. The population of the study was the 55 publicly quoted corporations in the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) as at October 2013.The number was initially envisaged to be 60 but 5 firms were delisted or suspended during the year, hence leaving 55 firms as the population of study. The rationale for the choice for these firms is because they cut across the key economic sectors in Kenyan economy which include agriculture, commercial and services, manufacturing, finance and investment. This was a census survey and targeted all the firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange as of October 2013. The primary data for the study was collected through the use of a structured questionnaire. A five point type Likert scale ranging from 1 - denoting to a less event to 5 - denoting to a greater extent was used. Respondents were from senior management of NSE. From the analyses, the study established that there was a strong positive relationship between innovation and performance, and organization innovation significantly contributes to employee engagement. Also there was a moderate positive relationship between innovation and performance. The study drew expressions of interrelations between various variables, offered generalization of understanding and meaning of these relationships, thus expanding the frontiers of knowledge both theoretical and practical with respect to innovation and firm performance. Major conclusion in this study was that there is a positive strong relationship between innovation and major measures of firm performance.

Keywords: emperical, innovation, NSE, organizations, performance

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2137 Preparing and Scaling up Resiliency among Female Entrepreneurs in Mountain Environments

Authors: Shadreck Muchaku, Grey Magaiza, Jerit Dube

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The high insolvency rate of female-led emerging enterprises in the Southern African mountain region reflects the various vulnerabilities that exist. Although this is the case, there is a limited understanding of how these vulnerabilities influence entrepreneurship failure. This paper focuses on female entrepreneurs because of their role in economic development. Emerging female entrepreneurs in this region often operate in uncertain environments, which makes it difficult for them to thrive. The form and nature of entrepreneurial opportunities rural women of the Afro Montane region engage in are largely unsustainable as a lot of women struggle with confidence, and they need help with understanding their skills. However, there is still a gap in the existing literature on women entrepreneurship resilience and vulnerability reduction in the Afromontane. Furthermore, a major problem is the lack of empirical studies on this matter and limited studies indicating a general profile of emerging female entrepreneurs in this region. This systematic literature review attempts to fill in the gap of knowledge on entrepreneurship resilience and vulnerability reduction of emerging female entrepreneurs in the Afromontane regions and other similar precarious environments. In this review, we focus much on highlighting the nexus between entrepreneurship resilience and vulnerability reduction of emerging female entrepreneurs in academic literature through a chronological dispersal of publications in developing countries. This review adopts an ATLAS ti.22 software-based thematic analysis to analyze results obtained from reviewed academic journal articles. As research on entrepreneurship resilience and vulnerability reduction is still developing in the Sothern African mountain region, the results of this review will contribute to the body of literature and provide recommendations and a foundation for future research. This systematic review paper provides valuable insights and methodological approaches to scholarship in a nascent area of emerging female entrepreneurs in the Afromontane.

Keywords: entrepreneurship resiliency, vulnerability reduction, female entrepreneurs, mountain regions

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2136 The Impact of City Mobility on Propagation of Infectious Diseases: Mathematical Modelling Approach

Authors: Asrat M.Belachew, Tiago Pereira, Institute of Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Avenida Trabalhador São Carlense, 400, São Carlos, 13566-590, Brazil

Abstract:

Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to human beings. They cause morbidity and mortality to an individual and collapse the social, economic, and political systems of the whole world collectively. Mathematical models are fundamental tools and provide a comprehensive understanding of how infectious diseases spread and designing the control strategy to mitigate infectious diseases from the host population. Modeling the spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental model of inhomogeneous populations is good in terms of complexity. However, in the real world, there is a situation that accounts for heterogeneity, such as ages, locations, and contact patterns of the population which are ignored in a homogeneous setting. In this work, we study how classical an SEIR infectious disease spreading of the compartmental model can be extended by incorporating the mobility of population between heterogeneous cities during an outbreak of infectious disease. We have formulated an SEIR multi-cities epidemic spreading model using a system of 4k ordinary differential equations to describe the disease transmission dynamics in k-cities during the day and night. We have shownthat the model is epidemiologically (i.e., variables have biological interpretation) and mathematically (i.e., a unique bounded solution exists all the time) well-posed. We constructed the next-generation matrix (NGM) for the model and calculated the basic reproduction number R0for SEIR-epidemic spreading model with cities mobility. R0of the disease depends on the spectral radius mobility operator, and it is a threshold between asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and disease persistence. Using the eigenvalue perturbation theorem, we showed that sending a fraction of the population between cities decreases the reproduction number of diseases in interconnected cities. As a result, disease transmissiondecreases in the population.

Keywords: SEIR-model, mathematical model, city mobility, epidemic spreading

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2135 Trends of Cancer Patients Who Underwent Curative/radical Radiotherapy at Radiotherapy Center, Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital

Authors: Emeshaw Damtew Zebene, Edom Seife, Hagos Tesfay, Gurja Belay

Abstract:

Background: cancer incidence and mortality has grown rapidly throughout the world. Aging of the population, urbanization, physical inactivity, economic growth followed by smoking and drinking contributed a lot for the increased incidence of cancer all over the globe. Objective: the aim of this study was to assess a one-year trend of cancer patients who underwent curative/radical radiotherapy at radiotherapy center, Tikur Anbessa specialized hospital, Ethiopia. Methodology: We performed a prospective descriptive study of cancer patients treated with LINAC at Tikur Anbessa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from April 2021- March 2022. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. Descriptive statistics and chi-square results were generated using SPSS version 24. The level of significance was obtained at 0.05. Results: Sixty-four (64) curative/radical patients-44 females and 20 males were analyzed. Majority, 27(42.2%), of the patients age range from 45 to 64, and 45(70%) of them were urban residents where a group of higher gynecologic cancer was observed.78% of the patients were with locally advanced cancer, and 54(84.4%) of them had no awareness about cancer. Generally, head & neck cancer were found the most prevalent cancer 20(31.3%), and the leading cause of cancer among women was cervical cancer 17(38.6%), where about half 7(15.9%) of them were HIV positive. Conclusion: Our finding revealed that most of curative/radical patients presented at a locally advanced stage of the disease. Hence, maintaining the already available teletherapy machines and installing additional radiotherapy centers may help in treating the patients at the early stage of the disease. Since almost all of our study participants did not have information about cancer, awareness raising mechanisms should be done. Additionally, understanding differences in cancer incidence between urban and rural is important. Key words: Cancer, Curative/radical, Radiotherapy, Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital

Keywords: cancer, curative/radical, radiotherapy, tkur anbessa specialized hospital

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2134 Analyzing the Changing Pattern of Nigerian Vegetation Zones and Its Ecological and Socio-Economic Implications Using Spot-Vegetation Sensor

Authors: B. L. Gadiga

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This study assesses the major ecological zones in Nigeria with the view to understanding the spatial pattern of vegetation zones and the implications on conservation within the period of sixteen (16) years. Satellite images used for this study were acquired from the SPOT-VEGETATION between 1998 and 2013. The annual NDVI images selected for this study were derived from SPOT-4 sensor and were acquired within the same season (November) in order to reduce differences in spectral reflectance due to seasonal variations. The images were sliced into five classes based on literatures and knowledge of the area (i.e. <0.16 Non-Vegetated areas; 0.16-0.22 Sahel Savannah; 0.22-0.40 Sudan Savannah, 0.40-0.47 Guinea Savannah and >0.47 Forest Zone). Classification of the 1998 and 2013 images into forested and non forested areas showed that forested area decrease from 511,691 km2 in 1998 to 478,360 km2 in 2013. Differencing change detection method was performed on 1998 and 2013 NDVI images to identify areas of ecological concern. The result shows that areas undergoing vegetation degradation covers an area of 73,062 km2 while areas witnessing some form restoration cover an area of 86,315 km2. The result also shows that there is a weak correlation between rainfall and the vegetation zones. The non-vegetated areas have a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.0088, Sahel Savannah belt 0.1988, Sudan Savannah belt -0.3343, Guinea Savannah belt 0.0328 and Forest belt 0.2635. The low correlation can be associated with the encroachment of the Sudan Savannah belt into the forest belt of South-eastern part of the country as revealed by the image analysis. The degradation of the forest vegetation is therefore responsible for the serious erosion problems witnessed in the South-east. The study recommends constant monitoring of vegetation and strict enforcement of environmental laws in the country.

Keywords: vegetation, NDVI, SPOT-vegetation, ecology, degradation

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