Search results for: flares

Authors: Viktor Novikov, Yuri Ruzhin

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The studies completed to-date on a relation of the Earth's seismicity and solar processes provide the fuzzy and contradictory results. For verification of an idea that solar flares can trigger earthquakes, we have analyzed a case of a powerful surge of solar flash activity early in September 2017 during approaching the minimum of 24th solar cycle was accompanied by significant disturbances of space weather. On September 6, 2017, a group of sunspots AR2673 generated a large solar flare of X9.3 class, the strongest flare over the past twelve years. Its explosion produced a coronal mass ejection partially directed towards the Earth. We carried out a statistical analysis of the catalogs of earthquakes USGS and EMSC for determination of the effect of solar flares on global seismic activity. New evidence of earthquake triggering due to the Sun-Earth interaction has been demonstrated by simple comparison of behavior of Earth's seismicity before and after the strong solar flare. The global number of earthquakes with magnitude of 2.5 to 5.5 within 11 days after the solar flare has increased by 30 to 100%. A possibility of electric/electromagnetic triggering of earthquake due to space weather disturbances is supported by results of field and laboratory studies, where the earthquakes (both natural and laboratory) were initiated by injection of electrical current into the Earth crust. For the specific case of artificial electric earthquake triggering the current density at a depth of earthquake, sources are comparable with estimations of a density of telluric currents induced by variation of space weather conditions due to solar flares. Acknowledgment: The work was supported by RFBR grant No. 18-05-00255.

Keywords: solar flare, earthquake activity, earthquake triggering, solar-terrestrial relations

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Authors: Viacheslav Shkuratskyy, Aminu Bello Usman, Michael O’Dea, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

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This paper examines relationships between solar activity and earthquakes; it applied machine learning techniques: K-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, and long short-term memory network. Data from the SILSO World Data Center, the NOAA National Center, the GOES satellite, NASA OMNIWeb, and the United States Geological Survey were used for the experiment. The 23rd and 24th solar cycles, daily sunspot number, solar wind velocity, proton density, and proton temperature were all included in the dataset. The study also examined sunspots, solar wind, and solar flares, which all reflect solar activity and earthquake frequency distribution by magnitude and depth. The findings showed that the long short-term memory network model predicts earthquakes more correctly than the other models applied in the study, and solar activity is more likely to affect earthquakes of lower magnitude and shallow depth than earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger with intermediate depth and deep depth.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, long short-term memory network, earthquakes, solar activity, sunspot number, solar wind, solar flares

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Authors: Zavkiddin Mirtoshev, Mirabbos Mirkamalov

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We have analyzed the time series of full disk integrated soft X-ray (SXR) and hard X-ray (HXR) emission from the solar corona during 2004 January 1 to 2009 December 31, covering the descending phase of solar cycle 23. We employed the daily X-ray index (DXI) derived from X-ray observations from the Solar X-ray Spectrometer (SOXS) mission in four different energy bands: 4-5.5; 5.5-7.5 keV (SXR) and 15-20; 20-25 keV (HXR). The application of Lomb-Scargle periodogram technique to the DXI time series observed by the Silicium detector in the energy bands reveals several short and intermediate periodicities of the X-ray corona. The DXI explicitly show the periods of 13.6 days, 26.7 days, 128.5 days, 151 days, 180 days, 220 days, 270 days, 1.24 year and 1.54 year periods in SXR as well as in HXR energy bands. Although all periods are above 70% confidence level in all energy bands, they show strong power in HXR emission in comparison to SXR emission. These periods are distinctly clear in three bands but somehow not unambiguously clear in 5.5-7.5 keV band. This might be due to the presence of Ferrum and Ferrum/Niccolum line features, which frequently vary with small scale flares like micro-flares. The regular 27-day rotation and 13.5 day period of sunspots from the invisible side of the Sun are found stronger in HXR band relative to SXR band. However, flare activity Rieger periods (150 and 180 days) and near Rieger period 220 days are very strong in HXR emission which is very much expected. On the other hand, our current study reveals strong 270 day periodicity in SXR emission which may be connected with tachocline, similar to a fundamental rotation period of the Sun. The 1.24 year and 1.54 year periodicities, represented from the present research work, are well observable in both SXR as well as in HXR channels. These long-term periodicities must also have connection with tachocline and should be regarded as a consequence of variation in rotational modulation over long time scales. The 1.24 year and 1.54 year periods are also found great importance and significance in the life formation and it evolution on the Earth, and therefore they also have great astro-biological importance. We gratefully acknowledge support by the Indian Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia and the Pacific (CSSTEAP, the Centre is affiliated to the United Nations), Physical Research Laboratory (PRL) at Ahmedabad, India. This work has done under the supervision of Prof. Rajmal Jain and paper consist materials of pilot project and research part of the M. Tech program which was made during Space and Atmospheric Science Course.

Keywords: corona, flares, solar activity, X-ray emission

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Authors: Ken Ninez Nurpramesti Prinindya, Yuli Setiyorini

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Crown enclosure high temperature flares damaged and reduced dimensions crown. Generally crown on EHTF could have a life time up to twenty years. Therefore, this study aims to increase the value of thermal resistance with the effect post treatment on NiCr coated arc spray method. The variation of post treatment temperature, was at 650°C, 750°C, and 850°C. Morphology on the surface and the adhesion strength was analyzed by SEM-EDX, Surface Roughness and Pull - off test. XRD testing was conducted to determine the contained in NiCr coated. Thermal stability of NiCr coated was tested by DSC-TGA. The most optimal results was owned by NiCr coating with post treated at 850°C. It has good thermal stability until 1000°C because of Cr2O3 formation in coated specimen. The higher temperature of post treatment coating was showed better result on porosity and roughness surface value.

Keywords: Arc spray process, NiCr wire, post-treatment coating, high temperature-corrosion resistance

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Authors: H. Zidoum, A. AlShareedah, S. Al Sawafi, A. Al-Ansari, B. Al Lawati

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Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease with genetic and environmental components. SLE is characterized by a wide variability of clinical manifestations and a course frequently subject to unpredictable flares. Despite recent progress in classification tools, the early diagnosis of SLE is still an unmet need for many patients. This study proposes an interpretable disease classification model that combines the high and efficient predictive performance of CatBoost and the model-agnostic interpretation tools of Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The CatBoost model was trained on a local cohort of 219 Omani patients with SLE as well as other control diseases. Furthermore, the SHAP library was used to generate individual explanations of the model's decisions as well as rank clinical features by contribution. Overall, we achieved an AUC score of 0.945, F1-score of 0.92 and identified four clinical features (alopecia, renal disorders, cutaneous lupus, and hemolytic anemia) along with the patient's age that was shown to have the greatest contribution on the prediction.

Keywords: feature selection, classification, systemic lupus erythematosus, model interpretation, SHAP, Catboost

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Authors: Аndrey Marchenko, Oleg Linkov, Alexander Osetrov, Sergiy Kravchenko

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The low-calorie of gases include biogas, coal gas, coke oven gas, associated petroleum gas, gases sewage, etc. These gases are usually released into the atmosphere or burned on flares, causing substantial damage to the environment. However, with the right approach, low-calorie gas fuel can become a valuable source of energy. Specified determines the relevance of areas related to the development of low-calorific gas utilization technologies. As an example, in the work considered one of way of utilization of coalmine gas, because Ukraine ranks fourth in the world in terms of coal mine gas emission (4.7% of total global emissions, or 1.2 billion m³ per year). Experts estimate that coal mine gas is actively released in the 70-80 percent of existing mines in Ukraine. The main component of coal mine gas is methane (25-60%) Methane in 21 times has a greater impact on the greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide disposal problem has become increasingly important in the context of the increasing need to address the problems of climate, ecology and environmental protection. So marked causes negative effect of both local and global nature. The efforts of the United Nations and the World Bank led to the adoption of the program 'Zero Routine Flaring by 2030' dedicated to the cessation of these gases burn in flares and disposing them with the ability to generate heat and electricity. This study proposes to use coal gas as a fuel for gas engines to generate heat and electricity. Analyzed the physical-chemical properties of low-calorie gas fuels were allowed to choose a suitable engine, as well as estimate the influence of the composition of the fuel at its techno-economic indicators. Most suitable for low-calorie gas is engine with pre-combustion chamber jet ignition. In Ukraine is accumulated extensive experience in exploitation and production of gas engines with capacity of 1100 kW type GD100 (10GDN 207/2 * 254) fueled by natural gas. By using system pre- combustion chamber jet ignition and quality control in the engines type GD100 introduces the concept of burning depleted burn fuel mixtures, which in turn leads to decrease in the concentration of harmful substances of exhaust gases. The main problems of coal mine gas as a fuel for ICE is low calorific value, the presence of components that adversely affect combustion processes and terms of operation of the ICE, the instability of the composition, weak ignition. In some cases, these problems can be solved by adaptation engine design using coal mine gas as fuel (changing compression ratio, fuel injection quantity increases, change ignition time, increase energy plugs, etc.). It is shown that the use of coal mine gas engines with prechamber has not led to significant changes in the indicator parameters (ηi = 0.43 - 0.45). However, this significantly increases the volumetric fuel consumption, which requires increased fuel injection quantity to ensure constant nominal engine power. Thus, the utilization of low-calorie gas fuels in stationary gas engine type-based GD100 will significantly reduce emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere when the generate cheap electricity and heat.

Keywords: gas engine, low-calorie gas, methane, pre-combustion chamber, utilization

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Authors: Caroline F. Moeser

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The skin-gut axis defines the relationship between the intestinal microbiota and the development of pathological skin diseases. Low diversity within the gut can predispose to the development of allergic skin conditions, and a greater diversity of the gastrointestinal microflora has been associated with a reduction of skin flares in people with atopic dermatitis. Manipulation of the gut microflora has been used as a treatment option for several conditions in people, but there is limited data available on the use of faecal transplantation as a preventative measure in either people or dogs. Six, 4-month-old pups from a litter of ten were presented for diarrhea and/or signs of skin disease (chronic scratching, otitis externa). Of these pups, two were given probiotics with a resultant resolution of diarrhea. The other four pups were given faecal transplantation, either as a sole treatment or in combination with other treatments. Follow-up on the litter of ten pups was performed at 18 months of age. At this stage, the four pups that had received faecal transplantation had resolved all clinical signs and had no recurrence of either skin or gastrointestinal symptoms. Of the remaining six pups from the litter, all had developed at least one episode of Malassezia otitis externa within the period of 5 months to 18 months of age. Two pups had developed two Malassezia otitis infections, and one had developed three Malassezia otitis infections during this period. Favrot’s criteria for the diagnosis of canine atopic dermatitis include chronic or recurrent Malassezia infections by the age of three years. Early results from this litter predict a reduction in the development of canine atopic disease in dogs given faecal microbial transplantation. Follow-up studies at three years of age and within a larger population of dogs can enhance understanding of the impact of early faecal transplantation in the prevention of canine atopic dermatitis.

Keywords: canine atopic dermatitis, faecal microbial transplant, skin-gut axis, otitis

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Authors: Keshav Prasad Kandel, Balaram Khadka, Karan Bhatta, Basu Dev Ghimire

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Earthquakes still exist as a threating disaster. Being able to predict earthquakes will certainly help prevent substantial loss of life and property. Perhaps, Very Low Frequency/Low Frequency (VLF/LF) signal band (3-30 kHz), which is effectively reflected from D-layer of ionosphere, can be established as a tool to predict earthquake. On May 20 and May 29, 2012, earthquakes of magnitude 6.1 and 5.8 respectively struck Emilia-Romagna of Italy. A year back, on August 24, 2016, an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 struck Central Italy (42.7060 N and 13.2230 E) at 1:36 UT. We present the results obtained from the US Navy VLF Transmitter’s NSY signal of 45.9 kHz transmitted from Niscemi, in the province of Sicily, Italy and received at the Kiel Longwave Monitor, Germany for 2012 and 2016. We analyzed the terminator times, their individual differences and nighttime fluctuation counts. We also analyzed trends, dispersion and nighttime fluctuation which gave us a possible precursors to these earthquakes. Since perturbations in VLF amplitude could also be due to various other factors like lightning, geomagnetic activities (storms, auroras etc.) and solar activities (flares, UV flux, etc.), we filtered the possible perturbations due to these agents to guarantee that the perturbations seen in VLF/LF amplitudes were as a precursor to Earthquakes. As our TRGCP path is North-south, the sunrise and sunset time in transmitter and receiver places matches making pathway for VLF/LF smoother and therefore hoping to obtain more natural data. To our surprise, we found many clear anomalies (as precursors) in terminator times 5 days to 16 days before the earthquakes. Moreover, using night time fluctuation method, we found clear anomalies 5 days to 13 days prior to main earthquakes. This exactly correlates with the findings of previous authors that ionospheric perturbations are seen few days to one month before the seismic activity. In addition to this, we were amazed to observe unexpected decrease of dispersion on certain anomalies where it was supposed to increase, thereby not supporting our finding to some extent. To resolve this problem, we devised a new parameter called dispersion nighttime (dispersion). On analyzing, this parameter decreases significantly on days of nighttime anomalies thereby supporting our precursors to much extent.

Keywords: D-layer, TRGCP (Transmitter Receiver Great Circle Path), terminator times, VLF/LF

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Authors: Evgenia Papathanasiou, Georgios Kokkotis, Georgios Axiaris, Theodoros Argyropoulos, Nikos Viazis, Olga Giouleme, Konstantinos Gkoumas, Αnthia Gatopoulou, Αggelos Theodoulou, Georgios Theocharis, Αngeliki Theodoropoulou, Μaria Κalogirou, Pantelis Karatzas, Κonstantinos Κatsanos, Theodora Kafetzi, Κonstantinos Κarmiris, Αnastasia Κourikou, Ιoannis E Κoutroubakis, Christos Liatsos, Gerassimos J. Mantzaris, Νicoletta Μathou, Georgia Bellou, George Michalopoulos Αikaterini Μantaka, Penelope Nikolaou, Μichael Oikonomou, Dimitrios Polymeros, George Papatheodoridis, Εvdoxia Stergiou, Κonstantinos Soufleris, Εpameinondas Skouloudis, Μaria Tzouvala, Georgia Tsiolakidou, Εftychia Tsironi, Styliani Tsafaraki, Kalliopi Foteinogiannopoulou, Konstantina Chalakatevaki, Αngeliki Christidou, Dimitrios K. Christodoulou, Giorgos Bamias, Spyridon Michopoulos, Εvanthia Zampeli

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Background: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) commonly affects female patients of reproductive age, making the interaction between fertility, pregnancy and IBD an important issue in disease management. The effect of disease activity on the outcome of pregnancy and its impact on neonatal growth is a field of intense research. Close follow-up of pregnant IBD patients by a multidisciplinary team improves maternal and neonatal outcomes. Aim – Methods: Α national retrospective study of pregnancies in women with IBD between 2010-2020 was carried out in 22 IBD reference centers in Greece. Patient characteristics such as disease profile, type of treatment, and disease activity during gestation were analyzed in correlation to the method of delivery, pregnancy outcomes, as well as breastfeeding and offspring health. Results: Two-hundred and twenty-three pregnancies in 175 IBD patients were registered in the study. 122 with Crohn’s disease (CD). Median age during diagnosis was 25.6 years (12-44), with median disease duration of 7.4 years (0-23). One-hundred and twenty-nine patients (58%) were recorded during their first pregnancy. Early pregnancy termination was reported by 48 patients (22%). Pregnancy as a result of in vitro fertilization (IVF) occurred in 15 cases (6.7%). At the beginning of gestation, 165 patients (74%) were under treatment: 48 with anti-TNF agents (29%), 43 with azathioprine (26%), 101 with 5-aminosalicylic acid formulations (61%) and 12 with steroids (7%). We recorded 49 cases of IBD flares (22%) during pregnancy. Two-thirds of them (n=30) were in remission at the onset of the pregnancy. Almost half of them (n=22) required corticosteroid treatment. Patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) were in greater risk of disease flare during pregnancy (p<0.001). All but 3 pregnancies (99.1%) resulted in uncomplicated delivery. In 147 cases (67.1%), cesarean delivery was performed. Two late fetal deaths (0.9%) were reported, both in patients with continuously active disease since the beginning of pregnancy. After delivery, 75 patients (34%) presented with a disease flare, which was associated with active disease at the beginning of pregnancy (p <0.001). Conclusion: The majority of female, Greek IBD patients, had a favorable pregnancy outcome. Active inflammation during gestation and UC diagnosis were associated with a negative impact on pregnancy outcomes. The results of this study are in favor of the continuation of IBD treatment during pregnancy.

Keywords: pregnancy, ulcerative colitis, Crohn disease, flare

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Authors: Tamar Lin, Nufar Buchshtab, Yifat Elharar, Julian Nicenboim, Rotem Edgar, Iddo Weiner, Lior Zelcbuch, Ariel Cohen, Sharon Kredo-Russo, Inbar Gahali-Sass, Naomi Zak, Sailaja Puttagunta, Merav Bassan

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Background: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic, relapsing inflammatory skin disorder that is characterized by dry skin and flares of eczematous lesions and intense pruritus. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that AD is associated with increased colonization by Staphylococcus aureus, which contributes to disease pathogenesis through the release of virulence factors that affect both keratinocytes and immune cells, leading to disruption of the skin barrier and immune cell dysfunction. The aim of the current study is to develop a bacteriophage-based product that specifically targets S. aureus. Methods: For the discovery of phage, environmental samples were screened on 118 S. aureus strains isolated from skin samples, followed by multiple enrichment steps. Natural phages were isolated, subjected to Next-generation Sequencing (NGS), and analyzed using proprietary bioinformatics tools for undesirable genes (toxins, antibiotic resistance genes, lysogeny potential), taxonomic classification, and purity. Phage host range was determined by an efficiency of plating (EOP) value above 0.1 and the ability of the cocktail to completely lyse liquid bacterial culture under different growth conditions (e.g., temperature, bacterial stage). Results: Sequencing analysis demonstrated that the 118 S. aureus clinical strains were distributed across the phylogenetic tree of all available Refseq S. aureus (~10,750 strains). Screening environmental samples on the S. aureus isolates resulted in the isolation of 50 lytic phages from different genera, including Silviavirus, Kayvirus, Podoviridae, and a novel unidentified phage. NGS sequencing confirmed the absence of toxic elements in the phages’ genomes. The host range of the individual phages, as measured by the efficiency of plating (EOP), ranged between 41% (48/118) to 79% (93/118). Host range studies in liquid culture revealed that a subset of the phages can infect a broad range of S. aureus strains in different metabolic states, including stationary state. Combining the single-phage EOP results of selected phages resulted in a broad host range cocktail which infected 92% (109/118) of the strains. When tested in vitro in a liquid infection assay, clearance was achieved in 87% (103/118) of the strains, with no evidence of phage resistance throughout the study (24 hours). A S. aureus host was identified that can be used for the production of all the phages in the cocktail at high titers suitable for large-scale manufacturing. This host was validated for the absence of contaminating prophages using advanced NGS methods combined with multiple production cycles. The phages are produced under optimized scale-up conditions and are being used for the development of a topical formulation (BX005) that may be administered to subjects with atopic dermatitis. Conclusions: A cocktail of natural phages targeting S. aureus was effective in reducing bacterial burden across multiple assays. Phage products may offer safe and effective steroid-sparing options for atopic dermatitis.

Keywords: atopic dermatitis, bacteriophage cocktail, host range, Staphylococcus aureus

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