Search results for: maximum likelihood estimator (MLE)

Authors: Radhika V., J. M. Chandra Kishen

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The theory of critical distances (TCD), due to its appealing characteristics, has been successfully used in the past to predict the strength of brittle as well as ductile materials, weakened by the presence of stress risers under both static and fatigue loading. By utilising most of the TCD's unique features, this paper summarises an attempt for a reformulation of the point method of the TCD to predict the strength of notched plain concrete beams under mode I quasi-static loading. A zone of micro cracks, which is responsible for the non-linearity of concrete, is taken into account considering the concept of an effective elastic crack. An attempt is also made to correlate the value of the material characteristic length required for the application of TCD with the maximum aggregate size in the concrete mix, eliminating the need for any extensive experimentation prior to the application of TCD. The devised reformulation and the proposed power law based relationship is found to yield satisfactory predictions for static strength of notched plain concrete beams, with geometric dimensions of the beam, tensile strength, and maximum aggregate size of the concrete mix being the only needed input parameters.

Keywords: characteristic length, effective elastic crack, inherent material strength, modeI loading, theory of critical distances

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Authors: Nandhini Ravi, Muthukumaran Shanmugam

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Metals are being replaced by thermoplastic polymer composites in automotive industries because of their low density, easiness to fabricate, low cost and good wear resistance. Complex polymer components consist of assemblies of smaller parts which can be joined by friction stir welding. This study deals with the additive friction stir welding of 15 wt.% glass fiber reinforced polyamide 66 composite which is a modified technique of the conventional friction stir welding by the addition of a filler plate for the heating of the composite work piece through the tool during the welding process. Welding at different combinations of tool rotational speed, travel speed and tool plunge depth was done after which the tensile strength of the respective experiments was determined. The maximum tensile strength obtained was 77 MPa which was 80% of the strength of the base material. The process parameters were optimized using the L9 orthogonal array and also the effect of individual welding parameter on the tensile strength was studied. The optimum parameter combination was determined with the help of ANOVA studies. The hardness of the welded joints was studied with the help of Shore Durometer which yielded the maximum of D 75.

Keywords: additive friction stir welding, polyamide 66, process parameters, thermoplastic polymer composite

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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Authors: Lila Boulekbache-Makhlouf, Brahmi Fatiha

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This study was carried out with the aim of enriching fresh cheese with the food by-products, which are the leaves of shallots and the peels of potatoes. Firstly, the conditions for extracting the total polyphenols (TPP) using ultrasound are optimized. Then, the contents of PPT, flavonoids, and antioxidant activity were evaluated for the extracts obtained by adopting the optimal parameter. On the other hand, we have carried out some physico-chemical, microbiological, and sensory analyzes of the cheese produced. The maximum PPT value of 70.44 mg GAE/g DM of shallot leaves was reached with 40% (v/v) ethanol, an extraction time of 90 min, and a temperature of 10°C. Meanwhile, the maximum TPP content of potato peels of 45.03 ± 4.16 mg GAE/g DM was obtained using an ethanol/water mixture (40%, v/v), a time of 30 min, and a temperature of 60°C and the flavonoid contents were 13.99 and 7.52 QE/g DM, respectively. From the antioxidant tests, we deduced that the potato peels present a higher antioxidant power with IC50s of 125.42 ± 2.78 μg/mL for DPPH, of 87.21 ± 7.72 μg/mL for phosphomolybdate and 200.77 ± 13.38 μg/mL for iron chelation, compared with the results obtained for shallot leaves which were 204.29 ± 0.09, 45.85 ± 3,46 and 1004.10 ± 145.73 μg/mL, respectively. The results of the physico-chemical analyzes have shown that the formulated cheese was compliant with standards. Microbiological analyzes show that the hygienic quality of the cheese produced was satisfactory. According to the sensory analyzes, the experts liked the cheese enriched with the powder and pieces of the leaves of the shallots.

Keywords: shallots leaves, potato peels, ultrasound extraction, phenolic, cheese

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Authors: Po-Jen Su, Huann-Ming Chou

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In this article we uses the residual correction method to deal with transient thermoelastic problems with a hollow spherical region when the continuum medium possesses spherically isotropic thermoelastic properties. Based on linear thermoelastic theory, the equations of hyperbolic heat conduction and thermoelastic motion were combined to establish the thermoelastic dynamic model with consideration of the deformation acceleration effect and non-Fourier effect under the condition of transient thermal shock. The approximate solutions of temperature and displacement distributions are obtained using the residual correction method based on the maximum principle in combination with the finite difference method, making it easier and faster to obtain upper and lower approximations of exact solutions. The proposed method is found to be an effective numerical method with satisfactory accuracy. Moreover, the result shows that the effect of transient thermal shock induced by deformation acceleration is enhanced by non-Fourier heat conduction with increased peak stress. The influence on the stress increases with the thermal relaxation time.

Keywords: maximum principle, non-Fourier heat conduction, residual correction method, thermo-elastic response

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Authors: Maedeh Shojaeizadeh, Amirreza Yeganegi

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Nowadays many people lose their lives due to cardiovascular diseases. Inappropriate food habits and lack of exercise expedite deposit process of fatty substances on inner surface of blood arteries. This abnormal lump disturbs uniform blood flow and reduces oxygen delivery to active organs. This work presents a numerical simulation of Non-Newtonian blood flow in a stenosis vessel. The vessel is considered as two dimensional channel and plaque area is modelled as a homogenous porous medium. To simulate blood flow reaction around stenosis region, we use C++ code and solve coupled Cauchy, Darcy, governing continuity and energy equations. The analyses results show that viscosity power (n) plays an important role in flow separation and the size of the eddy at the downstream edge of the plaque. It is also observed that with increasing (n) value, temperature discontinuity and likelihood of vessel rupture declined.

Keywords: blood flow, computational fluid dynamic, porosity, power law fluid

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Authors: Christo Nicholls

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The National Electricity Grid (NEG) in South Africa has been under strain for the last five years. This overburden of the NEG led Eskom (the State-Owned Entity responsible for the NEG) to implement a blunt methodology to assist them in reducing the maximum demand (MD) on the NEG, when required, called Loadshedding. The challenge of this methodology is that not only does it lead to immense technical issues with the distribution network equipment, e.g., transformers, due to the frequent abrupt off and on switching, it also has a broader negative fiscal impact on the distributors, as their key consumers (commercial & industrial) are now grid defecting due to the lack of Electricity Security Provision (ESP). This paper provides a pragmatic alternative methodology utilizing specific functionalities embedded within direct-connect single and three-phase Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI) Solutions deployed within the distribution network, in conjunction with a Multi-Agent Systems Based AI implementation focused on Automated Negotiation Peer-2-Peer trading. The results of this research clearly illustrate, not only does methodology provide a factual percentage contribution towards the NEG MD at the point of consideration, it also allows the distributor to leverage the real-time MD data from key consumers to activate complex, yet impact-measurable Demand Response (DR) programs.

Keywords: AI, AMI, demand response, multi-agent

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Authors: S. Wagner, C. Boley, Y. Forouzandeh

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When digging excavations, groundwater bearing layers are often encountered. In order to allow anhydrous excavation, soil groutings are carried out, which form a water-impermeable layer. As it is injected into groundwater areas, the effects of the materials used on the environment must be known. Developing an eco-friendly, economical and low viscous acrylic gel which has a sealing effect on groundwater is therefore a significant task. At this point the study begins. Basic investigations with the rheometer and a reverse column experiment have been performed with different mixing ratios of an acrylic gel. A dynamic rheology study was conducted to determine the time at which the gel still can be processed and the maximum gel strength is reached. To examine the effect of acrylic gel grouting on determine the parameters pH value, turbidity, electric conductivity, and total organic carbon on groundwater, an acrylic gel was injected in saturated sand filled the column. The structure was rinsed with a constant flow and the eluate was subsequently examined. The results show small changes in pH values and turbidity but there is a dependency between electric conductivity and total organic carbon. The curves of the two parameters react at the same time, which means that the electrical conductivity in the eluate can be measured constantly until the maximum is reached and only then must total organic carbon (TOC) samples be taken.

Keywords: acrylic gel grouting, dynamic rheology study, electric conductivity, total organic carbon

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Authors: Roberta Guerra, Juan Pablo Pozo Hernandez

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Surface sediments from the coastal lagoon of Pialassa Piomboni in the NW Adriatic Sea were collected and analysed and the potential ecological risks in the area were assessed based on the acid-volatile sulphide (AVS) model. The AVS levels are between 0.03 and 8.8 µmol g-1, with the average at 3.1 µmol g-1. The simultaneously extracted metals (∑SEM), which is the molar sum of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn, range from 0.3 to 6.6 µmol g-1, with the average at 1.7 µmol g-1. Most of the high ∑SEM concentrations are located in the southern area of the lagoon. [SEM]Zn had the comparatively high mean concentration (1.4 µmol g-1), and a maximum value of 6.1 µmol g-1, respectively. Concentrations of [SEM]Cd, [SEM]Cu, [SEM]Ni, and [SEM]Pb were consistently lower, with maximum values of 0.007 µmol g-1, 1.4 µmol g-1, 0.3 µmol g-1 and 0.2 µmol g-1, respectively. Compared to other metals, [SEM]Zn was the dominant component in all samples and accounted for approximately 31 - 93% of the ∑SEM, whereas the contribution of Cd – the most toxic metal studied – to ∑SEM was no more than 1%. According to the USEPA evaluation method, the sediment samples can be divided into the three following categories: category 1, adverse biological effects on aquatic life may be expected when ([SEM]–[AVS])/fOC > 3000; category 2, adverse effects on aquatic life are uncertain when ([SEM]–[AVS])/fOC = 130 to 3,000; and category 3, no indication of adverse effects when ([SEM]–[AVS])/fOC < 130. Most of the surface sediments of the Pialassa Piomboni lagoon (>90%) had no adverse biological effects according to the criterion proposed by the USEPA; while adverse effects were uncertain in few stations (~2%).

Keywords: sediment quality, heavy metals, coastal lagoon, bioavailability, SEM, AVS

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Authors: Mukesh Ranjan

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Applying probit model on the micro data of NSS 71st round on education for understanding the access to education post the passage of Right to Education act,2009 in India. The empirical analysis shows that at all India level the mean age of enrollment in school is 5.5 years and drop-out age is around 14 years (or studied up to class 7) and around 60 percent females never get enrolled in any school in their lifetime. Nearly 20 percent children in Bihar never seen school and surprisingly, the relatively developed states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have more than one-third of the children and half of the children in Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Orissa as educationally wasted. The relative contribution in educational wastage is maximum by Bengal (10 %) while UP contributed a maximum of 30 % in educational non-enrollment in the country. Educational wastage is more likely to increase with age. Marriage is a resistive factor in getting education. Muslims are educationally more deprived than Hindus. Larger family and rich household are less likely to be educationally deprived. Major reasons for drop-out until 9 years were lack of interest in education and financial constraint; between 10-12 years, lack of interest and unable to cope up with studies and post 12 years financial constraint, marriage and other household reasons.

Keywords: probit model, educational wastage, educational non-enrollment, educational deprivation

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Authors: Rabiaa Gammoudi, Najet Rebei, Othman Hasnaoui

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Photovoltaic systems use different techniques for tracking the Maximum Power Point (MPPT) to provide the highest possible power to the load regardless of the climatic conditions variation. In this paper, the proposed method is the Open Circuit (OC) method with sudden and random variations of insolation. The simulation results of the water pumping system controlled by OC method are validated by an experimental experience in real-time using a test bench composed by a centrifugal pump powered by a PVG via a boost chopper for the adaptation between the source and the load. The output of the DC/DC converter supplies the motor pump LOWARA type, assembly by means of a DC/AC inverter. The control part is provided by a computer incorporating a card DS1104 running environment Matlab/Simulink for visualization and data acquisition. These results show clearly the effectiveness of our control with a very good performance. The results obtained show the usefulness of the developed algorithm in solving the problem of degradation of PVG performance depending on the variation of climatic factors with a very good yield.

Keywords: PVWPS (PV Water Pumping System), maximum power point tracking (MPPT), open circuit method (OC), boost converter, DC/AC inverter

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Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

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The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: generalized autoregressive score model, South Africa, stock returns, time-varying

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Authors: Odejayi Adedayo Olugbenga, Aina Adebisi

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Weather variables (rainfall and temperature) affect the diversity and abundance of both fauna and flora species. This study compared the weather variables with spider abundance in two ecological zones of Ogun State, Nigeria namely Ago-iwoye (Rainforest) in the Ijebu axis and Aiyetoro (Derived Savannah) in the Yewa axis. Seven study sites chosen by Simple Random Sampling in each ecosystem were used for the study. In each sampling area, a 60 m x 120 m land area was marked and sampled, spider collection techniques were; hand picking, use of sweep netting, and Pitfall trap. Adult spiders were identified to the species level. Species richness was estimated by a non-parametric species estimator while the diversity of spider species was assessed by Simpson Diversity Index and Species Richness by One-way Analysis of Variance. Results revealed that spiders were more abundant in rainforest zones than in derived savannah ecosystems. However, the pattern of spider abundance in rainforest zone and residential areas were similar. During high temperatures, the activities of spiders tended to increase according to this study. In contrast, results showed that there was a negative correlation between rainfall and spider species abundance in addition to a negative and weak correlation between rainfall and species richness. It was concluded that heavy downpour has lethal effects on both immature and sometimes matured spiders, which could lead to the extinction of some unknown species of spiders. Tree planting should be encouraged, as this shelters the spider.

Keywords: spider, abundance, species richness, species diversity

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Authors: F. Hekmatipour, M. A. Akhavan-Behabadi, B. Sajadi

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In this paper, the combined free and forced convection heat transfer of the Copper Oxide-Heat Transfer Oil (CuO-HTO) nanofluid flow in horizontal and inclined microfin tubes is studied experimentally. The flow regime is laminar, and pipe surface temperature is constant. The effect of nanoparticle and microfin tube on the heat transfer rate is investigated with the Richardson number which is between 0.1 and 0.7. The results show an increasing nanoparticle concentration between 0% and 1.5% leads to enhance the combined free and forced convection heat transfer rate. According to the results, five correlations are proposed to provide estimating the free and forced heat transfer rate as the increasing Richardson number from 0.1 to 0.7. The maximum deviation of both correlations is less than 16%. Moreover, four correlations are suggested to assess the Nusselt number based on the Rayleigh number in inclined tubes from 1800000 to 7000000. The maximum deviation of the correlation is almost 16%. The Darcy friction factor of the nanofluid flow has been investigated. Furthermore, CuO-HTO nanofluid flows in inclined microfin tubes.

Keywords: nanofluid, heat transfer oil, mixed convection, inclined tube, laminar flow

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Authors: Defne Uz

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Horizontal Tail of helicopter is exposed to repeated oscillatory loading generated by aerodynamic and inertial loads, and bending moments depending on operating conditions and maneuvers of the helicopter. In order to ensure that maximum stress levels do not exceed certain fatigue limit of the material and to prevent damage, a numerical analysis approach can be utilized through the Finite Element Method. Therefore, in this paper, fatigue analysis of the Horizontal Tail model is studied numerically to predict high-cycle and low-cycle fatigue life related to defined loading. The analysis estimates the stress field at stress concentration regions such as around fastener holes where the maximum principal stresses are considered for each load case. Critical element identification of the main load carrying structural components of the model with rivet holes is performed as a post-process since critical regions with high-stress values are used as an input for fatigue life calculation. Once the maximum stress is obtained at the critical element and the related mean and alternating components, it is compared with the endurance limit by applying Soderberg approach. The constant life straight line provides the limit for several combinations of mean and alternating stresses. The life calculation based on S-N (Stress-Number of Cycles) curve is also applied with fully reversed loading to determine the number of cycles corresponds to the oscillatory stress with zero means. The results determine the appropriateness of the design of the model for its fatigue strength and the number of cycles that the model can withstand for the calculated stress. The effect of correctly determining the critical rivet holes is investigated by analyzing stresses at different structural parts in the model. In the case of low life prediction, alternative design solutions are developed, and flight hours can be estimated for the fatigue safe operation of the model.

Keywords: fatigue analysis, finite element method, helicopter horizontal tail, life prediction, stress concentration

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Authors: N. Haj Salem, M. Belhadj, S. Ben Jomâa, R. Dhouieb, S. Saadi, M. A. Mesrati, A. Chadly

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Introduction: The hyoid bone is considered as one of many bones used to identify a missed person. There is a specificity of each population group in human identifications. Objective: To analyze the relationship between age, sex and metric parameters of hyoid bone in Tunisian population sample, using CT-scan. Materials and Methods: A prospective study was conducted in the Department of Forensic Medicine of FattoumaBourguiba Hospital of Monastir-Tunisia during 4 years. A total of 240 samples of hyoid bone were studied. The age of cases ranged from 18 days to 81 years. The specimens were collected only from the deceased of known age. Once dried, each hyoid bone was scanned using CT scan. For each specimen, 10 measurements were taken using a computer program. The measurements consisted of 6 lengths and 4 widths. A regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship between age, sex, and different measurements. For age estimation, a multiple logistic regression was carried out for samples ≤ 35 years. For sex determination, ROC curve was performed. Discriminant value finally retained was based on the best specificity with the best sensitivity. Results: The correlation between real age and estimated age was good (r²=0.72) for samples aged 35 years or less. The unstandardised canonical function equation was estimated using three variables: maximum length of the right greater cornua, length from the middle of the left joint space to the middle of the right joint space and perpendicular length from the centre point of a line between the distal ends of the right and left greater cornua to the centre point of the anterior view of the body of the hyoid bone. For sex determination, the ROC curve analysis reveals that the area under curve was at 81.8%. Discriminant value was 0.451 with a specificity of 73% and sensibility of 79%. The equation function was estimated based on two variables: maximum length of the greater cornua and maximum length of the hyoid bone. Conclusion: The findings of the current study suggest that metric analysis of the hyoid bone may predict the age ≤ 35 years. Sex estimation seems to be more reliable. Further studies dealing with the fusion of the hyoid bone and the current study could help to achieve more accurate age estimation rates.

Keywords: anthropology, age estimation, CT scan, sex determination, Tunisia

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Authors: Milind S. Patil, Purushottam S. Desale, Eknath R. Deore

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Thermal analysis of reheat, regenerative, inter-cooled gas turbine cycle is presented. Specific work output, thermal efficiency and SFC is simulated with respect to operating conditions. Analytical formulas were developed taking into account the effect of operational parameters like ambient temperature, compression ratio, compressor efficiency, turbine efficiency, regenerator effectiveness, pressure loss in inter cooling, reheating and regenerator. Calculations were made for wide range of parameters using engineering equation solver and the results were presented here. For pressure ratio of 12, regenerator effectiveness 0.95, and maximum turbine inlet temperature 1200 K, thermal efficiency decreases by 27% with increase in ambient temperature (278 K to 328 K). With decrease in regenerator effectiveness thermal efficiency decreases linearly. With increase in ambient temperature (278 K to 328 K) for the same maximum temperature and regenerator effectiveness SFC decreases up to a pressure ratio of 10 and then increases. Sharp rise in SFC is noted for higher ambient temperature. With increase in isentropic efficiency of compressor and turbine, thermal efficiency increases by about 40% for low ambient temperature (278 K to 298 K) however, for higher ambient temperature (308 K to 328 K) thermal efficiency increases by about 70%.

Keywords: gas turbine, reheating, regeneration, inter-cooled, thermal analysis

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Authors: Akhtar Malik Muhammad, Agha Mirwais

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Dams are considered to recharge aquifers by raising the water table, especially the ones near wells. The present study investigates the impact of dams on groundwater recharge in Jilga, Pakistan. The comparative analysis of changes in the groundwater table of the year 2012 and 2019 was carried out using ArcGIS 10.5 through the kriging method and remote sensing techniques to evaluate the mini dam's impact on the upstream area. Arc Info Spatial Analyze extension was used to find static water level maps of the years. The water table was observed minimum 67.08 feet and maximum 130.09 feet in 2012 whereas in 2019 the minimum water table level 49.89 feet and maximum 115.85 feet. Groundwater recharge with different ratio was noted, but the most significant was at Rabbani dam with 26ft due to supported lithology conditions and the lowest recharge was found at Garang dam14ft. The overall positive trend indicates the rehabilitation of dead karez and agriculture activities by increasing 36% the vegetation area in 2019. An over 6% increase in human settlement indicates socioeconomic development. Thus, it highlights the need for preferential focus on the construction of the dam so that the water level could be sustained to cater to the agricultural and domestic needs of the local population around the year

Keywords: water table, GIS, land cover, mini dams, agriculture

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Palaniyandi Karuppaiya, Hsin Sheng Tsay, Fang Chen

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Medicinal herbs do represent a huge and noteworthy reservoir for novel anticancer drugs discovery. Dysosma pleiantha (Hance) Woodson (Berberidaceae), one of the oldest traditional Chinese medicinal herb, highly prized by the mountain tribes of Taiwan and China for its medicinal properties contained pharmaceutically important antitumor compounds podophyllotoxin, quercetin and kaempferol. Among lignans, podophyllotoxin is an active antitumor compound and has now been modified to produce clinically useful drugs etoposide and teniposide. In recent years, natural populations of D. peliantha have declined considerably due to anthropogenic activities such as habitat destruction and commercial exploitation for medicinal applications. As to its overall conservation status, D. pleiantha has been ranked as threatened on the China Species Red List. In the present study, an efficient in vitro callus culture system of D. pleiantha was established on Gamborg’s medium with various combinations and concentrations of different auxins and cytokinins under dark condition. Best callus induction was recorded in 2 mg/L 2, 4 - Dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) along with 0.2 mg/L kinetin and the maximum callus proliferation was achieved at 1 mg/L 2,4-D. Among the explants tested, maximum callus induction (86 %) was achieved from tender leaves. Hence, in subsequent experiments, leaf callus was further investigated for suitable callus biomass and production level of anticancer compounds under the influence of different additives. A maximum fresh callus biomass (8.765 g) was recorded in callus proliferation medium contained 500 mg/L casein hydrolysate. High performance liquid chromatography results revealed that the addition of different concentrations of peptone (1, 2 and 4 g/L) in callus proliferation medium enhanced podophyllotoxin (16 fold), quercetin (12 fold) and kaempferol (5 fold) accumulation than control. Thus, the established in vitro callus culture under the influence of different additives may offer an alternative source of enhanced production of podophyllotoxin, kaempferol and quecertin without harming natural plant population.

Keywords: dysosma pleiantha, kaempferol, podophyllotoxin, quercetin

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Authors: Shinji Ukita, Naohiro Nakamura, Yuji Miyazu

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In considering the dynamic characteristics of structure, natural frequency and damping ratio are useful indicator. When performing dynamic design, it's necessary to select an appropriate initial damping model and hysteretic model. In the linear region, the setting of initial damping model influences the response, and in the nonlinear region, the combination of initial damping model and hysteretic model influences the response. However, the dynamic characteristics of structure in the nonlinear region remain unclear. In this paper, we studied the effect of setting of initial damping model and hysteretic model on the dynamic characteristics of structure. On initial damping model setting, Initial stiffness proportional, Tangent stiffness proportional, and Rayleigh-type were used. On hysteretic model setting, TAKEDA model and Normal-trilinear model were used. As a study method, dynamic analysis was performed using a lumped mass model of base-fixed. During analysis, the maximum acceleration of input earthquake motion was gradually increased from 1 to 600 gal. The dynamic characteristics were calculated using the ARX model. Then, the characteristics of 1st and 2nd natural frequency and 1st damping ratio were evaluated. Input earthquake motion was simulated wave that the Building Center of Japan has published. On the building model, an RC building with 30×30m planes on each floor was assumed. The story height was 3m and the maximum height was 18m. Unit weight for each floor was 1.0t/m2. The building natural period was set to 0.36sec, and the initial stiffness of each floor was calculated by assuming the 1st mode to be an inverted triangle. First, we investigated the difference of the dynamic characteristics depending on the difference of initial damping model setting. With the increase in the maximum acceleration of the input earthquake motions, the 1st and 2nd natural frequency decreased, and the 1st damping ratio increased. Then, in the natural frequency, the difference due to initial damping model setting was small, but in the damping ratio, a significant difference was observed (Initial stiffness proportional≒Rayleigh type>Tangent stiffness proportional). The acceleration and the displacement of the earthquake response were largest in the tangent stiffness proportional. In the range where the acceleration response increased, the damping ratio was constant. In the range where the acceleration response was constant, the damping ratio increased. Next, we investigated the difference of the dynamic characteristics depending on the difference of hysteretic model setting. With the increase in the maximum acceleration of the input earthquake motions, the natural frequency decreased in TAKEDA model, but in Normal-trilinear model, the natural frequency didn’t change. The damping ratio in TAKEDA model was higher than that in Normal-trilinear model, although, both in TAKEDA model and Normal-trilinear model, the damping ratio increased. In conclusion, in initial damping model setting, the tangent stiffness proportional was evaluated the most. In the hysteretic model setting, TAKEDA model was more appreciated than the Normal-trilinear model in the nonlinear region. Our results would provide useful indicator on dynamic design.

Keywords: initial damping model, damping ratio, dynamic analysis, hysteretic model, natural frequency

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Authors: Naser Alajmi, Ali Alobaidly, Mubarak Alhajri, Salem Salamah, Muhammad Alsubaie

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Iterative Learning Control (ILC) known to be a controlling tool to overcome periodic disturbances for repetitive systems. This technique is required to let the error signal tends to zero as the number of operation increases. The learning process that lies within this context is strongly dependent on the initial input which if selected properly tends to let the learning process be more effective compared to the case where a system starts from blind. ILC uses previous recorded execution data to update the following execution/trial input such that a reference trajectory is followed to a high accuracy. Error convergence in ILC is generally highly dependent on the input applied to a plant for trial $1$, thus a good choice of initial starting input signal would make learning faster and as a consequence the error tends to zero faster as well. In the work presented within, an upper limit based on the Singular Values Principle (SV) is derived for the initial input signal applied at trial $1$ such that the system follow the reference in less number of trials without responding aggressively or exceeding the working envelope where a system is required to move within in a robot arm, for example. Simulation results presented illustrate the theory introduced within this paper.

Keywords: initial input, iterative learning control, maximum input, singular values

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Authors: Bhawesh Kumar, A. P. Krishna

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There are continuous changes upon earth’s surface by a variety of natural and anthropogenic agents cut, carry away and depositing of minerals from land. Running water has higher capacity of erosion than other geomorphologic agents. This research work has been carried out on Ganga River, whose channel is continuously changing under the influence of geomorphic agents and human activities in the surrounding regions. The main focus is to study morphological characteristics and sand dynamics of Ganga River with particular emphasis on bank lines and width changes using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The advance remote sensing data and topographical data were interpreted for obtaining 52 years of changes. For this, remote sensing data of different years (LANDSAT TM 1975, 1988, 1993, ETM 2005 and ETM 2012) and toposheet of SOI for the year 1960 were used as base maps for this study. Sinuosity ratio, braiding index and migratory activity index were also established. It was found to be 1.16 in 1975 and in 1988, 1993, 2005 and 2005 it was 1.09, 1.11, 1.1, 1.09 respectively. The analysis also shows that the minimum value found in 1960 was in reach 1 and maximum value is 4.8806 in 2012 found in reach 4 which suggests creation of number of islands in reach 4 for the year 2012. Migratory activity index (MAI), which is a standardized function of both length and time, was computed for the 8 representative reaches. MAI shows that maximum migration was in 1975-1988 in reach 6 and 7 and minimum migration was in 1993-2005. From the channel change analysis, it was found that the shifting of bank line was cyclic and the river Ganges showed a trend of southward maximum values. The advanced remote sensing data and topographical data helped in obtaining 52 years changes in the river due to various natural and manmade activities like flood, water velocity and excavation, removal of vegetation cover and fertile soil excavation for the various purposes of surrounding regions.

Keywords: braided index, migratory activity index (MAI), Ganga river, river morphology

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Authors: Casta Guillaume, Robert Jagers, Deborah Rivas-Drake

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Civically engaged youth are critical to maintaining and/or improving the functioning of local, national and global communities and their institutions. The present study investigated how school climate and academic beliefs (academic self-efficacy and school belonging) may inform emergent civic behaviors (emergent citizenship) among self-identified middle school youth of color (African American, Multiracial or Mixed, Latino, Asian American or Pacific Islander, Native American, and other). Study aims: 1) Understand whether and how school climate is associated with civic engagement behaviors, directly and indirectly, by fostering a positive sense of connection to the school and/or engendering feelings of self-efficacy in the academic domain. Accordingly, we examined 2) The association of youths’ sense of school connection and academic self-efficacy with their personally responsible and participatory civic behaviors in school and community contexts—both concurrently and longitudinally. Data from two subsamples of a larger study of social/emotional development among middle school students were used for longitudinal and cross sectional analysis. The cross-sectional sample included 324 6th-8th grade students, of which 43% identified as African American, 20% identified as Multiracial or Mixed, 18% identified as Latino, 12% identified as Asian American or Pacific Islander, 6% identified as Other, and 1% identified as Native American. The age of the sample ranged from 11 – 15 (M = 12.33, SD = .97). For the longitudinal test of our mediation model, we drew on data from the 6th and 7th grade cohorts only (n =232); the ethnic and racial diversity of this longitudinal subsample was virtually identical to that of the cross-sectional sample. For both the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, full information maximum likelihood was used to deal with missing data. Fit indices were inspected to determine if they met the recommended thresholds of RMSEA below .05 and CFI and TLI values of at least .90. To determine if particular mediation pathways were significant, the bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals for each indirect pathway were inspected. Fit indices for the latent variable mediation model using the cross-sectional data suggest that the hypothesized model fit the observed data well (CFI = .93; TLI =. 92; RMSEA = .05, 90% CI = [.04, .06]). In the model, students’ perceptions of school climate were significantly and positively associated with greater feelings of school connectedness, which were in turn significantly and positively associated with civic engagement. In addition, school climate was significantly and positively associated with greater academic self-efficacy, but academic self-efficacy was not significantly associated with civic engagement. Tests of mediation indicated there was one significant indirect pathway between school climate and civic engagement behavior. There was an indirect association between school climate and civic engagement via its association with sense of school connectedness, indirect association estimate = .17 [95% CI: .08, .32]. The aforementioned indirect association via school connectedness accounted for 50% (.17/.34) of the total effect. Partial support was found for the prediction that students’ perceptions of a positive school climate are linked to civic engagement in part through their role in students’ sense of connection to school.

Keywords: civic engagement, early adolescence, school climate, school belonging, developmental niche

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Authors: Saleh Alshehri

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Thermoelectric technology is currently being used in many industrial applications for cooling, heating and generating electricity. This research mainly focuses on using thermoelectric to cool down high-speed computer chips at different operating conditions. A previously developed and validated three-dimensional model for optimizing and assessing the performance of cascaded thermoelectric and non-cascaded thermoelectric is used in this study to investigate the possibility of decreasing the hotspot temperature of computer chip. Additionally, a test assembly is built and tested at steady-state and transient conditions. The obtained optimum thermoelectric current at steady-state condition is used to conduct a number of pulsed tests (i.e. transient tests) with different shapes to cool the computer chips hotspots. The results of the steady-state tests showed that at hotspot heat rate of 15.58 W (5.97 W/cm²), using thermoelectric current of 4.5 A has resulted in decreasing the hotspot temperature at open circuit condition (89.3 °C) by 50.1 °C. Maximum and minimum hotspot temperatures have been affected by ON and OFF duration of the electrical current pulse. Maximum hotspot temperature was resulted by longer OFF pulse period. In addition, longer ON pulse period has generated the minimum hotspot temperature.

Keywords: thermoelectric generator, TEG, thermoelectric cooler, TEC, chip hotspots, electronic cooling

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Authors: Anwar Hussain, Ahmed Imran, Farida Faisal, Fatima Sultana

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The present research evaluates a comparative assessment of dividend policy and share price across the South Asian countries including Pakistan, India and Sri-Lanka over the period of 2010 to 2014. Academic writers found that dividend policy and share price relationship is not same in south Asian market due to different reasons. Moreover, Panel Models used = for the evaluation of current study. In addition, Redundant fixed effect Likelihood and Hausman test used for determine of Common, Fixed and Random effect model. Therefore Indian market dividend policies play a fundamental role and significant impact on Market Share Prices. Although, present research found that different as compared to previous study that dividend policy have no impact on share price in Sri-Lanka and Pakistan.

Keywords: dividend policy, share price, South Asian countries, panel data analysis, theories and parameters of dividend

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Authors: Nihat Dipova, Bulent Cangir

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This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Antalya (SW Turkey). South west of Turkey is characterized by large earthquakes resulting from the continental collision between the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates and crustal faults. Earthquakes around the study area are grouped into two; crustal earthquakes (D=0-50 km) and subduction zone earthquakes (50-140 km). Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw=6.0. Maximum magnitude of crustal earthquakes is Mw=6.6. Sources for crustal earthquakes are faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. A new earthquake catalogue for Antalya, with unified moment magnitude scale has been prepared and seismicity of the area around Antalya city has been evaluated by defining ‘a’ and ‘b’ parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. The Standard Cornell-McGuire method has been used for hazard computation utilizing CRISIS2007 software. Attenuation relationships proposed by Chiou and Youngs (2008) has been used for 0-50 km earthquakes and Youngs et. al (1997) for deep subduction earthquakes. Finally, Seismic hazard map for peak horizontal acceleration on a uniform site condition of firm rock (average shear wave velocity of about 1130 m/s) at a hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years has been prepared.

Keywords: Antalya, peak ground acceleration, seismic hazard assessment, subduction

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Authors: Shreyas Srinivas Rangan, Jurgis Porins

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The internet traffic has increased exponentially due to the high demand for data rates by the users, and the constantly increasing metro networks and access networks are focused on improving the maximum transmit distance of the long-reach optical networks. One of the common methods to improve the maximum transmit distance of the long-reach optical networks at the component level is to use broadband optical amplifiers. The Erbium Doped Fiber Amplifier (EDFA) provides high amplification with low noise figure but due to the characteristics of EDFA, its operation is limited to C-band and L-band. In contrast, the Raman amplifier exhibits a wide amplification spectrum, and negative noise figure values can be achieved. To obtain such results, high powered pumping sources are required. Operating Raman amplifiers with such high-powered optical sources may cause fire hazards and it may damage the optical system. In this paper, we implement a hybrid optical amplifier configuration. EDFA and Raman amplifiers are used in this hybrid setup to combine the advantages of both EDFA and Raman amplifiers to improve the reach of the system. Using this setup, we analyze the maximum transmit distance of the network by obtaining a correlation diagram between the length of the single-mode fiber (SMF) and the Bit Error Rate (BER). This hybrid amplifier configuration is implemented in a Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) system with a BER of 10⁻⁹ by using NRZ modulation format, and the gain uniformity noise ratio (signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)), the efficiency of the pumping source, and the optical signal gain efficiency of the amplifier are studied experimentally in a mathematical modelling environment. Numerical simulations were implemented in RSoft OptSim simulation software based on the nonlinear Schrödinger equation using the Split-Step method, the Fourier transform, and the Monte Carlo method for estimating BER.

Keywords: Raman amplifier, erbium doped fibre amplifier, bit error rate, hybrid optical amplifiers

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Authors: M. D. Nirmani, K. L. N. Perera, G. H. Galhena

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Dengue has become one of the most important arbo-viral disease in all tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Aedes aegypti, is the principal vector of the virus, vary in both epidemiological and behavioral characteristics, which could be finely measured through DNA sequence comparison at their population level. Such knowledge in the population differences can assist in implementation of effective vector control strategies allowing to make estimates of the gene flow and adaptive genomic changes, which are important predictors of the spread of Wolbachia infection or insecticide resistance. As such, this study was undertaken to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Ae. aegypti from Galle and Colombo, Sri Lanka, based on the ribosomal protein region which spans between two exons, in order to understand the geographical distribution of genetically distinct mosquito clades and its impact on mosquito control measures. A 320bp DNA region spanning from 681-930 bp, corresponding to the ribosomal protein, was sequenced in 62 Ae. aegypti larvae collected from Galle (N=30) and Colombo (N=32), Sri Lanka. The sequences were aligned using ClustalW and the haplotypes were determined with DnaSP 5.10. Phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes were constructed using the maximum likelihood method under Tamura 3 parameter model in MEGA 7.0.14 including three previously reported sequences of Australian (N=2) and Brazilian (N=1) Ae. aegypti. The bootstrap support was calculated using 1000 replicates and the tree was rooted using Aedes notoscriptus (GenBank accession No. KJ194101). Among all sequences, nineteen different haplotypes were found among which five haplotypes were shared between 80% of mosquitoes in the two populations. Seven haplotypes were unique to each of the population. Phylogenetic tree revealed two basal clades and a single derived clade. All observed haplotypes of the two Ae. aegypti populations were distributed in all the three clades, indicating a lack of genetic differentiation between populations. The Brazilian Ae. aegypti haplotype and one of the Australian haplotypes were grouped together with the Sri Lankan basal haplotype in the same basal clade, whereas the other Australian haplotype was found in the derived clade. Phylogram showed that Galle and Colombo Ae. aegypti populations are highly related to each other despite the large geographic distance (129 Km) indicating a substantial genetic similarity between them. This may have probably arisen from passive migration assisted by human travelling and trade through both land and water as the two areas are bordered by the sea. In addition, studied Sri Lankan mosquito populations were closely related to Australian and Brazilian samples. Probably this might have caused by shipping industry between the three countries as all of them are fully or partially enclosed by sea. For example, illegal fishing boats migrating to Australia by sea is perhaps a good mean of transportation of all life stages of mosquitoes from Sri Lanka. These findings indicate that extensive mosquito migrations occur between populations not only within the country, but also among other countries in the world which might be a main barrier to the successful vector control measures.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, dengue control, extensive mosquito migration, haplotypes, phylogeny, ribosomal protein

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Authors: Aline Woine, Moïra Mikolajczak, Virginie Dardier, Isabelle Roskam

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Background information: Becoming a parent is said to be the happiest event one can ever experience in one’s life. This popular (and almost absolute) truth–which no reasonable and decent human being would ever dare question on pain of being singled out as a bad parent–contrasts with the nuances that reality offers. Indeed, while many parents do thrive in their parenting role, some others falter and become progressively overwhelmed by their parenting role, ineluctably caught in a spiral of exhaustion. Parental burnout (henceforth PB) sets in when parental demands (stressors) exceed parental resources. While it is now generally acknowledged that PB affects the parent’s behavior in terms of neglect and violence toward their offspring, little is known about the impact that the syndrome might have on the children’s internalized (anxious and depressive symptoms, somatic complaints, etc.) and/or externalized (irritability, violence, aggressiveness, conduct disorder, oppositional disorder, etc.) behaviors. Furthermore, at the time of writing, to our best knowledge, no research has yet tested the reverse effect, namely, that of the child's internalized and/or externalized behaviors on the onset and/or maintenance of parental burnout symptoms. Goals and hypotheses: The present pioneering research proposes to fill an important gap in the existing literature related to PB by investigating the bidirectional effect between PB and the child’s internalized and/or externalized behaviors. Relying on a cross-lagged longitudinal study with three waves of data collection (4 months apart), our study tests a transactional model with bidirectional and recursive relations between observed variables and at the three waves, as well as autoregressive paths and cross-sectional correlations. Methods: As we write this, wave-two data are being collected via Qualtrics, and we expect a final sample of about 600 participants composed of French-speaking (snowball sample) and English-speaking (Prolific sample) parents. Structural equation modeling is employed using Stata version 17. In order to retain as much statistical power as possible, we use all available data and therefore apply the maximum likelihood with a missing value (mlmv) as the method of estimation to compute the parameter estimates. To limit (in so far is possible) the shared method variance bias in the evaluation of the child’s behavior, the study relies on a multi-informant evaluation approach. Expected results: We expect our three-wave longitudinal study to show that PB symptoms (measured at T1) raise the occurrence/intensity of the child’s externalized and/or internalized behaviors (measured at T2 and T3). We further expect the child’s occurrence/intensity of externalized and/or internalized behaviors (measured at T1) to augment the risk for PB (measured at T2 and T3). Conclusion: Should our hypotheses be confirmed, our results will make an important contribution to the understanding of both PB and children’s behavioral issues, thereby opening interesting theoretical and clinical avenues.

Keywords: exhaustion, structural equation modeling, cross-lagged longitudinal study, violence and neglect, child-parent relationship

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