Search results for: reservoir risk profile

Authors: Nurul Noraziemah Mohd Pauzi, Muhammad Fauzi Mohd Zain

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The rapid advance in the electronic industry has led to the increase amount of the waste cathode ray tube (CRT) devices. The management of CRT waste upon disposal haves become a major issue of environmental concern as it contains toxic elements (i.e. lead, barium, zinc, etc.) which has a risk of leaching if it is not managed appropriately. Past studies have reported regarding the possible use of CRT glass as a part of aggregate in concrete production. However, incorporating waste CRT glass may present an environmental risk via leachability of toxic elements. Accordingly, the preventive measures for reducing the risk was proposed. The current work presented the experimental results regarding potential leaching of toxic elements from four types of concrete mixed, each compromising waste CRT glass as coarse aggregate with different shape and properties. Concentrations of detected elements are measure in the leachates by using atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS). Results indicate that the concentration of detected elements were found to be below applicable risk, despite the higher content of toxic elements in CRT glass. Therefore, the used of waste CRT glass as coarse aggregate in hardened concrete does not pose any risk of leachate of heavy metals to the environment.

Keywords: recycled CRT glass, coarse aggregate, physical properties, leaching, toxic elements

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Authors: Aida Alemany, Laura Ballester, Ana González-Urteaga

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From 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis the European banking industry has experienced a terrible financial instability situation with increasing levels of CDS spreads (used as a proxy of credit risk). This paper investigates whether volatility transmission channels in European banking markets have changed after three significant crises’ events during the period January 2006 to March 2013. The global financial crisis is characterized by a unidirectional volatility shocks spillovers effect in credit risk from inside to outside the Eurozone. By contrast, the Eurozone debt crisis is revealed to be local in nature with the euro as the key element suggesting a market fragmentation between distressed peripheral and non-distressed core Eurozone countries, whereas retaining the local currency have acted as a firewall. With these findings we are able to shed light on the impact of the different crises on the European banking credit risk dynamics.

Keywords: CDS spreads, credit risk, volatility spillovers, financial crisis

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Authors: Yawen Xia, Rubi Yang, Jing Zhao

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By using the Reputation Risk Index (RRI) to measure company environmental, social, and governance (ESG) activities, this research studies firms’ ESG comovement with their industry and local peers. This comovement is attenuated during the Covid-19 pandemic. Further analysis shows that corporate governance plays an important role in comovement decrease. We classify companies by region (city, state, region) and industry and calculate the average RRI of companies of the same type. We run separate regressions to test 1) industry comovement; 2) local comovement; 3) Covid-19 pandemic and reputation risk comovement; 4) corporate governance and reputation risk comovement. Our findings are consistent with previous literature that companies follow their industry and local counterparts in engaging in irresponsible activities and reducing ESG engagement. We speculate Covid shock led to a reduction in social activities and information sharing among enterprise managers, and comovement between enterprises, as a result, decreased during the pandemic.

Keywords: ESG, Covid, peer pressure, local comovement, corporate governance

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang

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Urban ecosystems, as complex coupled human-environment systems, contain abundant natural resources for breeding natural assets and, at the same time, attract urban assets and consume natural resources, triggered by urban development. Land use change illustrates the interaction between human activities and environments factually. However, IPCC (2014) announces that land use change and urbanization due to human activities are the major cause of climate change, leading to serious impacts on urban ecosystem resilience and risk. For this reason, risk assessment and resilience analysis are the keys for responding to climate change on urban ecosystems. Urban spatial planning can guide urban development by land use planning, transportation planning, and environmental planning and affect land use allocation and human activities by building major constructions and protecting important national land resources simultaneously. Urban spatial planning can aggravate climate change and, on the other hand, mitigate and adapt climate change. Research on effects of spatial planning on land use change and climate change is one of intense issues currently. Therefore, this research focuses on developing frameworks for risk assessment and resilience analysis from the aspect of ecosystem based on typhoon precipitation in Taipei area. The integrated method of risk assessment and resilience analysis will be also addressed for applying spatial planning practice and sustainable development.

Keywords: ecosystem, land use change, risk analysis, resilience

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Authors: Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa

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This study assesses the levels of knowledge of sexually transmitted infections among unmarried youths in Nigeria; examines the pattern of high risk sex among unmarried youths in Nigeria; investigate the socio-demographic factors (age, place of residence, religion, level of education, wealth index and employment status) affecting the practice of high-risk sexual behaviour and ascertain the relationships between knowledge of sexually transmitted infections and practice of high risk sex. The goal of the study is to identify the factors associated with the practice of high risk sex among youth. These were with a view to identifying critical actions needed to reduce high risk sexual behaviour among youths. The study employed secondary data. The data for the study were extracted from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). The 2013 NDHS collected information from 38,948 Women ages 15-49 years and 17,359 men ages 15-49. A total of 7,744 female and 6,027 male respondents were utilized in the study. In order to adjust for the effect of oversampling of the population, the weighting factor provided by Measure DHS was applied. The data were analysed using frequency distribution and logistic regression. The results show that both male (92.2%) and female (93.6%) have accurate knowledge of sexually transmitted infections. The study also revealed that prevalence of high risk sexual behavior is high among Nigerian youths; this is evident as 77.7% (female) and 78.4% (male) are engaging in high risk sexual behavior. The bivariate analysis shows that age of respondent (χ2=294.2; p < 0.05), religion (χ2=136.64; p < 0.05), wealth index (χ2=17.38; p < 0.05), level of education (χ2=34.73; p < 0.05) and employment status (χ2=94.54; p < 0.05) were individual factors significantly associated with high risk sexual behaviour among male while age of respondent (χ2=327.07; p < 0.05), place of residence (χ2=6.71; p < 0.05), religion (χ2=81.04; p < 0.05), wealth index (χ2=7.41; p < 0.05), level of education (χ2=18.12; p < 0.05) and employment status (χ2=51.02; p < 0.05) were individual factors significantly associated with high risk sexual behaviour among female. Furthermore, the study shows that there is a relationship between knowledge of sexually transmitted infections and high risk sex among male (χ2=38.32; p < 0.05) and female (χ2=18.37; p < 0.05). At multivariate level, the study revealed that individual characteristics such as age, religion, place of residence, wealth index, levels of education and employment status were statistically significantly related with high risk sexual behaviour among male and female (p < 0.05). Lastly, the study shows that knowledge of sexually transmitted infection was significantly related to high risk sexual behaviour among youths (p < 0.05). The study concludes that there is a high level of knowledge of sexually transmitted infections among unmarried youths in Nigeria. The practice of high risk sex is high among unmarried youths but higher among male youths. The prevalence of high risk sexual activity is higher for males when they are at disadvantage and higher for females when they are at advantage. Socio-demographic factors like age of respondents, religion, wealth index, place of residence, employment status and highest level of education are factors influencing high risk sexual behaviour among youths.

Keywords: high risk sex, wealth index, sexual behaviour, knowledge

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Authors: Amir Sattari, Mac Panah, Naeim Rashidfarokhi

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To enhance the mixing of fluid in a rectangular enclosure with a circular inlet and outlet, an energy-efficient approach is further investigated through computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements help confirm that the pulsation of the inflow velocity improves the mixing performance inside the enclosure considerably without increasing energy consumption. In this study, multiple CFD simulations with different turbulent models were performed. The results obtained were compared with experimental PIV results. This study investigates small-scale representations of flow patterns in a ventilated rectangular room. The objective is to validate the concept of an energy-efficient ventilation strategy with improved thermal comfort and reduction of stagnant air inside the room. Experimental and simulated results confirm that through pulsation of the inflow velocity, strong secondary vortices are generated downstream of the entrance wall-jet. The pulsatile inflow profile promotes a periodic generation of vortices with stronger eddies despite a relatively low inlet velocity, which leads to a larger boundary layer with increased kinetic energy in the occupied zone. A real-scale study was not conducted; however, it can be concluded that a constant velocity inflow profile can be replaced with a lower pulsated flow rate profile while preserving the mixing efficiency. Among the turbulent CFD models demonstrated in this study, SST-kω is most advantageous, exhibiting a similar global airflow pattern as in the experiments. The detailed near-wall velocity profile is utilized to identify the wall-jet instabilities that consist of mixing and boundary layers. The SAS method was later applied to predict the turbulent parameters in the center of the domain. In both cases, the predictions are in good agreement with the measured results.

Keywords: CFD, PIV, pulsatile inflow, ventilation, wall-jet

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Authors: Samaneh Abolli, Mahmood Alimohammadi

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The survey analyzed 71 bottled water brands in Tehran, Iran, examining 10 physicochemical parameters and 16 heavy metals. The water quality index (WQI) approach was used to assess water quality, and methods such as carcinogen risk (CR) and hazard index (HI) were employed to evaluate health risks. The results indicated that the bottled water had good quality overall, but some brands were of poor or very poor quality. The study also revealed significant human health risks, especially for children, due to the presence of minerals and heavy metals in bottled water. Correlation analyses and risk assessments for various substances were conducted, providing valuable insights into the potential health impacts of the analyzed bottled water.

Keywords: bottled wate, rwater quality index, health risk assessment, contamination degree, heavy metal evaluation index

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Authors: R. Govender, T. C. Katsande, E. Madoroba, N. M. Thiebaut, D. Naidoo

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South African control over meat safety is managed by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF). Veterinary services department in each of the nine provinces in the country is tasked with overseeing the farm and abattoir segments of the meat supply chain. Abattoirs are privately owned. The number of abattoirs over the years has increased. This increase has placed constraints on government resources required to monitor these abattoirs. This paper presents empirical research results on the hygienic processing of meat in high and low throughout abattoirs. This paper presents a case for the adoption of risk-based regulation as a method of government control over hygiene and safe meat processing at abattoirs in South Africa. Recommendations are made to the DAFF regarding policy considerations on risk-based regulation as a model of control in South Africa.

Keywords: risk-based regulation, abattoir, food control, meat safety

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Authors: Tom Spears, Zotique Laframboise

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Soil inorganic carbon is the most common form of carbon in arid and semiarid regions, and has a very long turnover time. However, little is known about dissolved inorganic carbon storage and its turnover time in these soils. With 81 arid soil samples taken from 6 profiles in the Nepean Desert, Canada, we investigated the soil inorganic carbon (SIC) and the soil dissolved inorganic carbon (SDIC) in whole profiles of saline and alkaline soils by analyzing their contents and ages with radiocarbon dating. The results showed that there is considerable SDIC content in SIC, and the variations of SDIC and SIC contents in the saline soil profile were much larger than that in the alkaline profile. We investigated the possible implications for tectonic platelet activity but identified none.

Keywords: soil, carbon storage, acidity, soil inorganic carbon (SIC)

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Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor Sookia

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In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that 'fat-tailedness' alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: extreme value theory, financial crisis 2008, value at risk, frontier markets

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Authors: Tya M. Arthur

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Purpose: BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, and People of Color) adolescents face racism and discrimination at a young age. These early experiences have short- and long-term impacts on their health and overall well-being. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationships between perceived racial discrimination at school and health risk behaviors and experiences of BIPOC adolescents. Methods: Data from the 2021 Adolescent Behaviors and Experiences Survey (ABES) were analyzed. All demographic data were summarized using frequencies and chi-squared tests. A univariate and multivariate logistic regression model was used to test the relationship between perceived racial discrimination and selected health risk factors. All analyses were conducted using STATA SE 18. Results: A total of 42.2% of the BIPOC adolescents in the study indicated being treated unfairly at school due to their race. The majority of those who reported being discriminated against were Black/African American or Multiple Race-Hispanic. Asian adolescents were almost 5 times more likely to face racial discrimination at school compared to their American Indian/Alaska Native counterparts (OR = 4.86, 95% CI [2.69-8.77], p < 0.001). Other risk predictors of racial discrimination included being female (OR = 1.38, 95% CI [1.13-1.68], p = 0.002) and feeling disconnected at school (OR = 1.76, 95% CI [1.30-2.38], p < 0.001). After adjustment for health risk behaviors and experiences, BIPOC adolescents were still more likely to face racial discrimination with even higher odds. Conclusions: The results of this study highlight the depth of racial discrimination faced by BIPOC adolescents at school. Greater attention should be placed on racial discrimination as a social determinant of health and a public health crisis.

Keywords: racial discrimination, adolescents, heath risk factors, BIPOC

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Authors: Sana Gul, Sheeba Murad, Aneela Javed

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Introduction: Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) is small DNA virus mostly infecting mucosa and cutaneous keratinocytes. So far, more than 200 Human papillomaviruses are known. HPV have been divided into high- and low-risk on the basis of their oncogenic potential. High risk HPV is considered to be the main etiological cause for cervical cancer. Objective: Current study was designed to screen the local cervical cancer patients from the twin cities of Pakistan for the occurance of high risk HPV. Methodology: A total of 67 formalin fixed paraffin-embedded samples of cervical cancer biopsies were obtained from the government hospitals in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Cervical cancer biopsies were examined for the presence of HPV DNA. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used for the amplification of a region in the HPV-L1 gene for the general detection of the Papilloma virus and for the genotype specific detection of high risk HPV 16 and 18 using the GP5/GP6 primers and genotype specific primers respectively. Results: HPV DNA was detected in 59 out of 67 samples analyzed. 30 samples showed the presence of HPV16 while 22 samples were positive for HPV 18 . HPV subtype could not be determined in 7 samples. Conclusion: Our results show a strong association between HPV infection and cervical cancer among women in twin cities of Pakistan. One way to minimize the disease burden in relation to HPV infection in Pakistani population is the use of prophylactic vaccines and routine screening. An early diagnosis of HPV infection will allow better health management to reduce the risk of developing cervical cancer.

Keywords: cervical cancer, Pakistan, human papillomavirus, HPV 16

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Authors: Bilal Wadood, Suleman Khan, Sajjad Ahmed

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The Late Cretaceous strata (Mughal Kot Formation) exposed in Central Indus Basin, Pakistan is evaluated for establishing sequence stratigraphic framework and potential of hydrocarbon accumulation. The petrographic studies and SEM analysis were carried out to infer the hydrocarbon potential of the rock unit. The petrographic details disclosed 4 microfacies including Pelagic Mudstone, OrbitoidalWackestone, Quartz Arenite, and Quartz Wacke. The lowermost part of the rock unit consists of OrbitoidalWackestone which shows deposition in the middle shelf environment. The Quartz Arenite and Quartz Wacke suggest deposition on the deep slope settings while the Pelagic Mudstone microfacies point toward deposition in the distal deep marine settings. Based on the facies stacking patterns and cyclicity in the chronostratigraphic context, the strata is divided into two 3rd order cycles. One complete sequence i.e Transgressive system tract (TST), Highstand system tract (HST) and Lowstand system tract (LST) are again replaced by another Transgressive system tract and Highstant system tract with no markers of sequence boundary. The LST sands are sandwiched between TST and HST shales but no potential porosity/permeability values have been determined. Microfacies and SEM studies revealed very fewer chances for hydrocarbon accumulation and overall reservoir potential is characterized as low.

Keywords: cycle, deposition, microfacies, reservoir

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Authors: Farhad Reyazat, Richard Werner

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This paper contributes to the existent literature by developing a framework that explains how to monitor potential threats to banking sector stability. The study explores structural vulnerabilities at the country level, but also look at bilateral exposures within a network context. The study contributes in analysing of the European banking systemic risk at aggregated level, which integrates the characteristics of bank size, and interconnectedness relative to the size of the economy which ultimate risk belong to, taking to account the concentration ratio of the banking industry within the whole economy. The nature of the systemic risk depends on the interplay of the network topology with the nature of financial transactions over the network, assets and buffer stemming from bank size, correlations, and the nature of the shocks to the financial system. The study’s results illustrate the contribution of banks’ size, size of economy and concentration of counterparty exposures to a given country’s banks in explaining its systemic importance, how much the banking network depends on a few traditional hubs activities and the changes of this dependencies over the last 9 years. The role of few of traditional hubs such as Swiss banks and British Banks and also Irish banks- where the financial sector is fairly new and grew strongly between 1990s till 2008- take the fourth position on 2014 reducing the relative size since 2006 where they had the first position. In-degree concentration index analysis in the study shows concentration index of banking network was not changed since financial crisis 2007-8. In-degree concentration index on first quarter of 2014 indicates that US, UK and Germany together, getting over 70% of the network exposures. The result of comparing the in-degree concentration index with 2007-4Q, shows the same group having over 70% of the network exposure, however the UK getting more important role in the hub and the market share of US and Germany are slightly diminished.

Keywords: systemic risk, counterparty risk, financial stability, interconnectedness, banking concentration, european banks risk, network effect on systemic risk, concentration risk

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Authors: Atousa Ataieyan, Salvador A. Gomez-Lopera, Gennaro Sepede

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Today, due to the growing urban population and consequently, the increasing water demand in cities, the amount of contaminants entering the water resources is increasing. This can impose harmful effects on the quality of the downstream water. Therefore, predicting the concentration of discharged pollutants at different times and distances of the interested area is of high importance in order to carry out preventative and controlling measures, as well as to avoid consuming the contaminated water. In this paper, the concentration distribution of an injected conservative pollutant in a square reservoir containing four symmetric blocks and three sources using Finite Volume Method (FVM) is simulated. For this purpose, after estimating the flow velocity, classical Advection-Diffusion Equation (ADE) has been discretized over the studying domain by Backward Time- Backward Space (BTBS) scheme. Then, the discretized equations for each node have been derived according to the initial condition, boundary conditions and point contaminant sources. Finally, taking into account the appropriate time step and space step, a computational code was set up in MATLAB. Contaminant concentration was then obtained at different times and distances. Simulation results show how using BTBS differentiating scheme and FVM as a numerical method for solving the partial differential equation of transport is an appropriate approach in the case of two-dimensional contaminant transfer in an advective-diffusive flow.

Keywords: BTBS differentiating scheme, contaminant concentration, finite volume, mass transfer, water pollution

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Authors: Emma M. Iglesias

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We have analyzed extreme movements of the main stocks traded in the Eurozone in the 2000-2012 period. Our results can help future very-risk-averse investors to choose their portfolios in the Eurozone for risk management purposes. We find two main results. First, we can clearly classify firms by economic sector according to their different estimated VaR values in five of the seven countries we analyze. In special, we find sectors in general where companies have very high (telecommunications and banking) and very low (petroleum, utilities, energy and consumption) estimated VaR values. Second, we only find differences according to the geographical situation of where the stocks are traded in two countries: (1) all firms in the Irish stock market (the only financially rescued country we analyze) have very high estimated VaR values in all sectors; while (2) in Spain all firms have very low estimated VaR values including in the banking and the telecommunications sectors. All our results are supported when we study also the expected shortfall of the firms.

Keywords: risk management, firms, pareto tail thickness parameter, GARCH-type models, value-at-risk, extreme value theory, heavy tails, stock indexes, eurozone

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Authors: Benmoussa Rachid, Deguio Roland, Dubois Sebastien, Rasovska Ivana

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Implementation of LARG (Lean, Agile, Resilient, Green) practices in the supply chain management is a complex task mainly because ecological, economical and operational goals are usually in conflict. To implement these LARG practices successfully, companies’ need relevant decision making tools allowing processes performance control and improvement strategies visibility. To contribute to this issue, this work tries to answer the following research question: How to master performance and anticipate problems in supply chain LARG practices implementation? To answer this question, a risk management approach (RMA) is adopted. Indeed, the proposed RMA aims basically to assess the ability of a supply chain, guided by “Lean, Green and Achievement” performance goals, to face “agility and resilience risk” factors. To proof its relevance, a logistics academic case study based on simulation is used to illustrate all its stages. It shows particularly how to build the “LARG risk map” which is the main output of this approach.

Keywords: agile supply chain, lean supply chain, green supply chain, resilient supply chain, risk approach

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Authors: Luis Prada, Jose Gomez, Arlex Chaves, Julio Pedraza

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Polymeric liquids have been used in the oil industry, especially at enhanced oil recovery (EOR). From the rheological point of view, polymers have the particularity of being viscoelastic liquids. One of the most common and useful models to describe that behavior is the Upper Convected Maxwell model (UCM). The main characteristic of the polymer used in EOR process is the increase in viscosity which pushes the oil outside of the reservoir. The elasticity could contribute in the drag of the oil that stays in the reservoir. Studying the elastic effect on the oil drop at the pore scale, bring an explanation if the addition of elastic force could mobilize the oil. This research explores if the contraction and expansion of the polymer in the pore scale may increase the elastic behavior of this kind of fluid. For that reason, this work simplified the pore geometry and build two simple geometries with micrometer lengths. Using source terms with the user define a function this work introduces the UCM model in the ANSYS fluent simulator with the purpose of evaluating the elastic effect of the polymer in a contraction and expansion geometry. Also, using the Eulerian multiphase model, this research considers the possibility that extra elastic force will show a deformation effect on the oil; for that reason, this work considers an oil drop on the upper wall of the geometry. Finally, all the simulations exhibit that at the pore scale conditions exist extra vortices at UCM model but is not possible to deform the oil completely and push it outside of the restrictions, also this research find the conditions for the oil displacement.

Keywords: ANSYS fluent, interfacial fluids mechanics, polymers, pore scale, viscoelasticity

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Authors: Misarah Abdelaziz, L Djenidi, Mergen H. Ghayesh, Rey Chin

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Measurements of a turbulent boundary layer over 3D sinusoidal roughness are performed for friction Reynolds numbers ranging from 650 < Reτ < 2700. This surface was fabricated by a Multicam CNC Router machine of an acrylic sheet to have an amplitude of k/2 = 0.8 mm and an equal wavelength of 8k in both streamwise and spanwise directions, a 0.6 mm stepover and 12 mm ball nose cutter was used. Single hotwire anemometry measurements are done at one location x=1.5 m downstream at different freestream velocities under zero-pressure gradient conditions. As expected, the roughness causes a downward shift on the wall-unit normalised streamwise mean velocity profile when compared to the smooth wall profile. The shift is increasing with increasing Reτ, 1.8 < ∆U+ < 6.2. The coefficient of friction is almost constant at all cases Cf = 0.0042 ± 0.0002. The results show a gradual reduction in the inner peak of profiles with increasing Reτ until fully destruction at Reτ of 2700.

Keywords: hotwire, roughness, TBL, ZPG

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Authors: Suvorov Vasyl, Filipchuk Viktor

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Background: If non-surgical treatment of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) fails or if DDH is late-detected, surgery is necessary. Salter pelvic osteotomy (SPO) is an effective surgical option for such cases. The objectives of this study were to assess the results after SPO, evaluate risk factors, and reveal those radiological parameters that may correlate with the results. Mid- and long-term postoperative results after SPO in 17 patients (22 hip joints) were analyzed. Risk factors included those that do not depend on the surgeon (patient's age, value of the acetabular index (AI) preoperatively, DDH Tonnis grade) and those that depend on the surgeon (amount of AI correction). To radiological parameters which may correlate with the amount of AI correction, we referred distance "d" and the lateral rotation angle. Results: SPO allows performing AI correction in ranges 24.1 ± 6.5°. Excellent and good clinical results were obtained in 95.5% of patients; excellent and good radiological results in 86.4% of patients. Risk factors that do not depend on the surgeon were older patient’s age and higher preoperative AI values (p < 0.05). The risk factor that depends on the surgeon was the amount of AI correction (p < 0.05). The distance "d" was recognized as a radiological parameter that may indicate sufficient AI correction (p < 0.05). Conclusion: In older patients with a higher preoperative AI value, the results will be predictably worse. The surgeon may influence the result with a greater amount of AI correction (which may also be indicated radiologically by the distance "d" values).

Keywords: developmental dysplasia of the hip, results, risk factor, pelvic osteotomy, salter osteotomy

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Authors: Claire Williams

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Randomised controlled Trials (RCTs) of efficacy are still perceived as the gold standard for the generation of evidence, and whilst advances in data collection methods are well developed, this progress has not been matched for the reporting of adverse events (AEs). Assessment and reporting of AEs in clinical trials are fraught with human error and inefficiency and are extremely time and resource intensive. Recent research conducted into the quality of reporting of AEs during clinical trials concluded it is substandard and reporting is inconsistent. Investigators commonly send reports to sponsors who are incorrectly categorised and lacking in critical information, which can complicate the detection of valid safety signals. In our presentation, we will describe an electronic data capture system, which has been designed to support clinical trial processes by reducing the resource burden on investigators, improving overall trial efficiencies, and making trials safer for patients. This proprietary technology was developed using expertise proven in the delivery of the world’s first prospective, phase 3b real-world trial, ‘The Salford Lung Study, ’ which enabled robust safety monitoring and reporting processes to be accomplished by the remote monitoring of patients’ EHRs. This technology enables safety alerts that are pre-defined by the protocol to be detected from the data extracted directly from the patients EHR. Based on study-specific criteria, which are created from the standard definition of a serious adverse event (SAE) and the safety profile of the medicinal product, the system alerts the investigator or study team to the safety alert. Each safety alert will require a clinical review by the investigator or delegate; examples of the types of alerts include hospital admission, death, hepatotoxicity, neutropenia, and acute renal failure. This is achieved in near real-time; safety alerts can be reviewed along with any additional information available to determine whether they meet the protocol-defined criteria for reporting or withdrawal. This active surveillance technology helps reduce the resource burden of the more traditional methods of AE detection for the investigators and study teams and can help eliminate reporting bias. Integration of multiple healthcare data sources enables much more complete and accurate safety data to be collected as part of a trial and can also provide an opportunity to evaluate a drug’s safety profile long-term, in post-trial follow-up. By utilising this robust and proven method for safety monitoring and reporting, a much higher risk of patient cohorts can be enrolled into trials, thus promoting inclusivity and diversity. Broadening eligibility criteria and adopting more inclusive recruitment practices in the later stages of drug development will increase the ability to understand the medicinal products risk-benefit profile across the patient population that is likely to use the product in clinical practice. Furthermore, this ground-breaking approach to AE detection not only provides sponsors with better-quality safety data for their products, but it reduces the resource burden on the investigator and study teams. With the data taken directly from the source, trial costs are reduced, with minimal data validation required and near real-time reporting enables safety concerns and signals to be detected more quickly than in a traditional RCT.

Keywords: more comprehensive and accurate safety data, near real-time safety alerts, reduced resource burden, safer trials

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Authors: Mehrnaz Farzingohar, Mehran Yasemi, Ahmad Savari

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The oil products are imported and exported via Rajaee’s tanker terminal. Within loading and discharging in several cases the oil is released into the berths and made oil spills. The spills are distributed within short time and seriously affected Rajaee port’s environment and even extended areas. The trajectory and fate of oil spills investigated by modeling and parted by three risk levels base on the modeling results. First GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) applied to trajectory the liquid oil. Second, ALOHA (Areal Location Of Hazardous Atmosphere) air quality model, is integrated to predict the oil evaporation path within the air. Base on the identified zones the high risk areas are signed by colored dots which their densities calculated and clarified on a map which displayed the harm places. Wind and water circulation moved the pollution to the East of Rajaee Port that accumulated about 12 km of coastline. Approximately 20 km of north east of Qeshm Island shore is covered by the three levels of risky areas. Since the main wind direction is SSW the pollution pushed to the east and the highest risk zones formed on the crests edges hence the low risk appeared on the concavities. This assessment help the management and emergency systems to monitor the exposure places base on the priority factors and find the best approaches to protect the environment.

Keywords: oil spill, modeling, pollution, risk assessment

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Maria Nikishova

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The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2^nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.

Keywords: FMCG companies, marketing budget, risk management, owner, Russian economy, organization, formation, development, system

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Authors: Henry Pariaman, Iwa Garniwa, Isti Surjandari, Bambang Sugiarto

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Availability of a complex system of thermal power plant is strongly influenced by the reliability of spare parts and maintenance management policies. A reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) technique is an established method of analysis and is the main reference for maintenance planning. This method considers the consequences of failure in its implementation, but does not deal with further risk of down time that associated with failures, loss of production or high maintenance costs. Risk-based maintenance (RBM) technique provides support strategies to minimize the risks posed by the failure to obtain maintenance task considering cost effectiveness. Meanwhile, condition-based maintenance (CBM) focuses on monitoring the application of the conditions that allow the planning and scheduling of maintenance or other action should be taken to avoid the risk of failure prior to the time-based maintenance. Implementation of RCM, RBM, CBM alone or combined RCM and RBM or RCM and CBM is a maintenance technique used in thermal power plants. Implementation of these three techniques in an integrated maintenance will increase the availability of thermal power plants compared to the use of maintenance techniques individually or in combination of two techniques. This study uses the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance in an integrated manner to increase the availability of thermal power plants. The method generates MPI (Priority Maintenance Index) is RPN (Risk Priority Number) are multiplied by RI (Risk Index) and FDT (Failure Defense Task) which can generate the task of monitoring and assessment of conditions other than maintenance tasks. Both MPI and FDT obtained from development of functional tree, failure mode effects analysis, fault-tree analysis, and risk analysis (risk assessment and risk evaluation) were then used to develop and implement a plan and schedule maintenance, monitoring and assessment of the condition and ultimately perform availability analysis. The results of this study indicate that the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance methods, in an integrated manner can increase the availability of thermal power plants.

Keywords: integrated maintenance techniques, availability, thermal power plant, MPI, FDT

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Authors: Hachmi Ben Ameur, Jean Luc Prigent

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We propose an extension of the CPPI method, which is based on conditional floors. In this framework, we examine in particular the TIPP and margin based strategies. These methods allow keeping part of the past gains and protecting the portfolio value against future high drawdowns of the financial market. However, as for the standard CPPI method, the investor can benefit from potential market rises. To control the risk of such strategies, we introduce both Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures. For each of these criteria, we show that the conditional floor must be higher than a lower bound. We illustrate these results, for a quite general ARCH type model, including the EGARCH (1,1) as a special case.

Keywords: CPPI, conditional floor, ARCH, VaR, expected ehortfall

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Authors: Ya-Ching Wang, Yi-Maun Subeq

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Background: There is a lack of evidence to understand differences in risk for developing breast cancer between sexual minority women and heterosexual women in Taiwan. The purpose of this study is to compare differences in risk for developing breast cancer between the two groups of Taiwanese women. Methods: An online cross-sectional survey was used to collect data. A total of 238 Taiwanese women (mean age 30.69 years old, SD=8.231, range 20-60) were recruited between December 2016 and February 2017, including 115 heterosexual women and 123 sexual minority women. Results: There were no significant differences between heterosexual women and sexual minority women in body mass index, history of non-malignant breast disease, age at menarche and menopause, use of hormone replacement therapy, use of hormone replacement therapy, nor the prevalence of breast cancer. The sexual minority women had higher rates of current drinking, smoking and using breast-bindings and also reported exercise more a week; the heterosexual women had higher rates of pregnancy, children, breastfeed, miscarriages, abortion and use of birth control pills. Discussion/Conclusion: There were significant differences between heterosexual women and sexual minority women in reproductive factors and behavioral risk factors for the development of breast cancer. In particular, the finding that the sexual minority women had higher rate of using breast-bindings (56.6%) than the heterosexual women (4.7%) should be further explore, in order to understand whether long-term breast compression is associated with the development of breast cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer, risk, sexual orientation, Taiwan

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Authors: A. Aydin, E. Akyol, N. Soyatik

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This study has been presented which is a detailed work of seismic microzonation of the city center. For seismic microzonation area of 225 km2 has been selected as the study area. MASW (Multichannel analysis of surface wave) and seismic refraction methods have been used to generate one-dimensional shear wave velocity profile at 250 locations and two-dimensional profile at 60 locations. These shear wave velocities are used to estimate equivalent shear wave velocity in the study area at every 2 and 5 m intervals up to a depth of 60 m. Levels of equivalent shear wave velocity of soil are used the classified of the study area. After the results of the study, it must be considered as components of urban planning and building design of Denizli and the application and use of these results should be required and enforced by municipal authorities.

Keywords: seismic microzonation, liquefaction, land use management, seismic refraction

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Authors: Sridhar S, Govinda Raj Mandela, Aruna Mangalpady

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In the present day scenario, Indian underground mines are moving towards full scale mechanisation for improvement of production and productivity levels. These mines are employing a wide variety of earth moving machines for the transportation of ore and overburden (waste). Low Profile Dump Trucks (LPDTs) have proven more advantageous towards improvement of production levels in underground mines through quick transportation. During the operation of LPDT, different kinds of vibrations are generated which can affect the health condition of the operator. Keeping this in view, the present research work focuses on measurement and evaluation of Hand Arm Vibrations (HAVs) from the steering system of LPDTs. The study also aims to evaluate the HAVs of different job components of a work cycle in operating LPDTs. The HAVs were measured and evaluated according to ISO 5349-2: 2001 standards, and the daily vibration exposures A(8) were calculated. The evaluated A(8) results show that LPDTs of 60 and 50 tons capacity have vibration levels more than that of the Exposure Action Value (EAV) of 2.5 m/s2 in every job component of the work cycle. Further, the results show that the vibration levels were more during empty haulage especially during descending journey when compared to other job components in all LPDTs considered for the study.

Keywords: low profile dump trucks, hand arm vibrations, exposure action value, underground mines

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Authors: Rebeca P Ramos-Bueno, Maria Jose Gonzalez-Fernandez, Rosa M. Moreno-Zamora, Antonia Barros Heras, Yolanda Serrano Alonso, Carolina Sanchez Barranco

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Insects are a new source of fatty acids (FA), so they are considered a sustainable and environmentally friendly alternative for both animal feed and the human diet, and furthermore, their harvesting/rearing require a low-tech and low capital investment. For that reason, lipids obtained by insect breeding open interesting possibilities with alimentary and industrial purposes, i.e., the production of biodiesel. Particularly, certain insect species, especially during the larval stage, contain high proportions of fat which is highly dependent on their feed and stage of development. Among them, Hermetia illucens larvae can be bred on food wastes to produce fat- and protein-rich raw materials for food by-product management. So, insects can act as excellent bioconverters of organic waste to nutrient-rich materials. In this regard, the aim of the study was to evaluate the effects of fruit byproducts on the FA compositions of Tenebrio molitor, Zophoba morio, and H. illucens larvae. Firstly, oil was extracted with the green solvent ethyl acetate, and FA methyl ester was obtained and analyzed by GC to show the FA profile. In addition, the triacylglycerol (TAG) profile was obtained by HPLC. Dehydrated watermelon, tomato, and papaya by-products, as well as wheat-based control feed, were assayed. High FA content was reached by Z. morio larvae fed with all fruits; however, no differences were shown in lipid profile with any change. It is worth highlighting that both Z. morio and H. illucens could be selected as the best candidates for biodiesel production due to their high content of saturated FA. On the other hand, T. molitor larvae showed a higher content of monounsaturated FA than control larvae, whereas the n-6 polyunsaturated FA content decreased in larvae fed with fruits. This result indicates that the improvement of the FA profile of Tenebrio can depend on both the type of feeding and the intended use. The lipid profile of H. illucens larvae fed with papaya and tomato showed a slight increase in the content of α-linoleic acid (ALA, 18:3n3). This FA is the precursor of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, 22:6n3), which plays an important role as a component of structural lipids in cell membranes as well as in the synthesis of eicosanoids, protecting and resolving. Also, it was evaluated the TAG profile of Z. morio larvae due to their highest oil content. The results showed a high oleic acid (OA, 18:1n9) content, which displays modulatory effects in a wide range of physiological functions, having anti-inflammatory and anti-atherogenic properties. In conclusion, this study clearly shows that Z. morio and H. illucens larvae constitute an alternative source of OA- and ALA-rich oils, respectively, which can be devoted for food use, as well as for using in the food and pharmaceutical industries, with agronomic implications. Finally, although the profile of Z. morio was not improved with fruit feeding, this kind of feeding could be used due to its low environmental impact.

Keywords: fatty acids, fruit byproducts, Hermetia illucens, Zophoba morio, Tenebrio molitor, insect rearing

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Authors: M. Mokhber, J. Hedayati

Abstract:

From the managerial perspective, it is important to devise an operational plan based on top priorities due to limited resources, diversity of measures and high costs needed to improve safety in infrastructure. Dealing with the high-risk corridors across Iran, this study prioritized the corridors according to statistical data on accidents involving fatalities, injury or damage over three consecutive years. In collaboration with the Iranian Police Department, data were collected and modified. Then, the prioritization criteria were specified based on the expertise opinions and international standards. In this study, the prioritization criteria included accident severity and accident density. Finally, the criteria were standardized and weighted (equal weights) to score each high-risk corridor. The prioritization phase involved the scoring and weighting procedure. The high-risk corridors were divided into twelve groups out of 50. The results of data analysis for a three-year span suggested that the first three groups (150 corridors) along with a quarter of Iranian road network length account for nearly 60% of traffic accidents. In the next step, according to variables including weather conditions particular roads for the purpose of winter safety measures were extracted from the abovementioned categories. According to the results ranking, ‎‏9‏‎ roads with the overall ‎length of about ‎‎‏1000‏‎ Km of high-risk corridors are considered as preferences of ‎safety measures‎.

Keywords: high-risk corridors, HRCs, road safety rating, road scoring, winter safety measures

Procedia PDF Downloads 159