Search results for: non lane based intersection

Authors: Yu Song, Yuefei Jin

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Urban public transportation can be integrated when there is an efficient connection between urban rail lines, however, there are currently no effective or quick solutions being investigated for this connection. This paper analyzes the space-time distribution and travel demand of passenger connection travel based on taxi track data and data from the road network, excavates potential bus connection stations based on potential connection demand data, and introduces the link growth probability model in the complex network to solve the basic connection bus lines in order to ascertain the direction of the bus lines that are the most connected given the demand characteristics. Then, a tree view exhaustive approach based on constraints is suggested based on graph theory, which can hasten the convergence of findings while doing chain calculations. This study uses WEI QU NAN Station, the Xi'an Metro Line 2 terminal station in Shaanxi Province, as an illustration, to evaluate the model's and the solution method's efficacy. According to the findings, 153 prospective stations have been dug up in total, the feeder bus network for the entire line has been laid out, and the best route adjustment strategy has been found.

Keywords: feeder bus, route optimization, link growth probability, the graph theory

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Authors: Wieland Hoppe, Nadine Wachter, Stefan Bringezu

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) utilization might be a promising way to substitute fossil raw materials like coal, oil or natural gas as carbon source of chemical production. While first life cycle assessments indicate a positive environmental performance of CO2-based process routes, a commercialization of CO2 is limited by several economic obstacles up to now. We, therefore, analyzed the economic performance of the three CO2-based chemicals methane and methanol as basic chemicals and polyoxymethylene as polymer on a cradle-to-gate basis. Our approach is oriented towards life cycle costing. The focus lies on the cost drivers of CO2-based technologies and options to stimulate a CO2-based economy by changing regulative factors. In this way, we analyze various modes of operation and give an outlook for the potentially cost-effective development in the next decades. Biogas, waste gases of a cement plant, and flue gases of a waste incineration plant are considered as CO2-sources. The energy needed to convert CO2 into hydrocarbons via electrolysis is assumed to be supplied by wind power, which is increasingly available in Germany. Economic data originates from both industrial processes and process simulations. The results indicate that CO2-based production technologies are not competitive with conventional production methods under present conditions. This is mainly due to high electricity generation costs and regulative factors like the German Renewable Energy Act (EEG). While the decrease in production costs of CO2-based chemicals might be limited in the next decades, a modification of relevant regulative factors could potentially promote an earlier commercialization.

Keywords: carbon capture and utilization (CCU), economic assessment, life cycle costing (LCC), power-to-X

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Authors: Mkhize Xolile, Davies Theopheluis

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The purpose of the study was to develop a variety of fruit, vegetable and indigenous wild herb (amaranth) based juices, which can increase mineral consumption (of Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Zn). Ten samples of juice varieties were developed. The concentration range for the standards was between 10 and 150 ppm. Standards and samples were analysed using Perkin Elmer Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer and the AAnalyst 400 model was used. The indigenous herb based juice was the most nutritious than all the other varieties developed. Mg and Fe could contribute significantly in improving cardio vascular health, bone functionality and immunity of elderly.

Keywords: minerals, elderly, juice, hypertension, intervention

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Authors: Aya M. Aboudesouky

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Covid-19 has changed and affected the whole world dramatically in a new way that the entire world, even scientists, have not imagined before. The educational institutions around the world have been fighting since Covid-19 hit the world last December to keep the educational process unchanged for all students. E-learning was a must for almost all US universities during the pandemic. It was specifically more challenging to use online case-based learning instead of regular classes among nursing students who take practical education. This study aims to examine the difference in performance and satisfaction between nursing students taking traditional education and those who take virtual case-based education during their practical study. This study enrolls 40 last-year nursing undergraduates from a mid-sized university in Western Pennsylvania. The study uses a convenient sample. Students will be divided into two groups; a control group that is exposed to traditional teaching strategy and a treatment group that is exposed to a case-based teaching strategy. The module designed for this study is a total parenteral nutrition (TPN) module that will be taught for one month. The treatment group (n=20) utilizes the virtual simulation of the CBL method, while the control group (n=20) uses the traditional lecture-based teaching method. Student evaluations are collected after a month by using the survey to attain the students’ learning satisfaction and self-evaluation of the course. The post-test is used to assess the end of the course performance.

Keywords: virtual case-based learning, traditional education, nursing education, Covid-19 crisis, online practical education

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Tanushree Jaitly, Shailendra Gupta, Leila Taher, Gerold Schuler, Julio Vera

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Genomics-based personalized medicine is a promising approach to fight aggressive tumors based on patient's specific tumor mutation and expression profiles. A remarkable case is, dendritic cell-based immunotherapy, in which tumor epitopes targeting patient's specific mutations are used to design a vaccine that helps in stimulating cytotoxic T cell mediated anticancer immunity. Here we present a computational pipeline for epitope-based personalized cancer vaccines using patient-specific haplotype and cancer mutation profiles. In the workflow proposed, we analyze Whole Exome Sequencing and RNA Sequencing patient data to detect patient-specific mutations and their expression level. Epitopes including the tumor mutations are computationally predicted using patient's haplotype and filtered based on their expression level, binding affinity, and immunogenicity. We calculate binding energy for each filtered major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-peptide complex using docking studies, and use this feature to select good epitope candidates further.

Keywords: cancer immunotherapy, epitope prediction, NGS data, personalized medicine

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Authors: Efrain Rodriguez, Sergio Pertuz, Cristhian Riano

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Tool-path generation is an essential step in the FFF (Fused Filament Fabrication)-based Additive Manufacturing (AM) process planning. In the manufacture of a mechanical part by using additive processes, high resource consumption and prolonged production times are inherent drawbacks of these processes mainly due to non-optimized tool-path generation. In this work, we propose a heuristic-search intelligent algorithm-based approach for optimized tool-path generation for FFF-based AM. The main benefit of this approach is a significant reduction of travels without material deposition when the AM machine performs moves without any extrusion. The optimization method used reduces the number of travels without extrusion in comparison with commercial software as Slic3r or Cura Engine, which means a reduction of production time.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, tool-path optimization, fused filament fabrication, process planning

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Authors: Anne Lehner, Mostafa Salari Rad, Jeremy Ginges

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Many of life’s privileges (and burdens) are thrust on us at birth. Someone born white or male in the United States is also born with a set of advantages over someone born non-white or female. One aspect of privileges conferred by birth is that they are so entrenched in social institutions and social norms that until they are robustly challenged, they can be seen as a moral good. While American society increasingly confronts privileges based on gender and race, other types of privileges, like one's nationality, see less attention. The nationality one is born into can have enormous effects on one’s personal life, work opportunities, and health outcomes. Yet, we predicted that although most Americans would regard it as absurd to think that white people have a right to protect their privileges and 'way of life', they would regard it as obvious that Americans have a right to protect the American way of life and associated privileges. In a preregistered study we presented 300 Americans randomly with one out of three 'privilege scales' in order to assess their agreement with certain statements. The domains for the privilege scales were nationality, race, and gender. Next, all participants completed the switched-at-birth task assessing ones tendency to essentialize nationality. We found that Americans are more approving of privilege based on nationality than of privilege based on gender and race. In addition, we found an interaction of condition with ideology, showing that conservatives are in general more approving of the privilege of any kind than liberals are, and they especially approve of privilege based on nationality. For the switched-at-birth task, we found that both, liberals as well as conservatives are equally willing to grant the child 100% American nationality. Whether or not one chose 100% is unrelated to the expressed approval of privilege based on nationality. One might hesitate to fully grant the child 100% American nationality in the task, yet disapprove of privilege based on nationality. This shows that as much as we see beholders of privilege being oblivious to their statuses within other social categories, like gender or race, we seem to detect the same blindness for the privilege based on nationality. Liberals showing relatively fewer support for privilege based on nationality compared to conservatives still refused to acknowledge the child as having become 100% American and thereby denying the privileges it potentially bestows upon them.

Keywords: thought experiment, anti-immigrant attitudes, privilege of nationality, immigration, moral circles, psychology

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Authors: Ajish K. Abraham

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Hearing aid is the most fundamental technology employed towards rehabilitation of persons with sensory neural hearing impairment. Hearing in noise is still a matter of major concern for many hearing aid users and thus continues to be a challenging issue for the hearing aid designers. Several techniques are being currently used to enhance the speech at the hearing aid output. Most of these techniques, when implemented, result in reduction of intelligibility of the speech signal. Thus the dissatisfaction of the hearing aid user towards comprehending the desired speech amidst noise is prevailing. Multichannel Wiener Filter is widely implemented in binaural hearing aid technology for noise reduction. In this study, Wiener filter based noise reduction approach is experimented for a single microphone based hearing aid set up. This method checks the status of the input speech signal in each frequency band and then selects the relevant noise reduction procedure. Results showed that the Wiener filter based algorithm is capable of enhancing speech even when the input acoustic signal has a very low Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR). Performance of the algorithm was compared with other similar algorithms on the basis of improvement in intelligibility and SNR of the output, at different SNR levels of the input speech. Wiener filter based algorithm provided significant improvement in SNR and intelligibility compared to other techniques.

Keywords: hearing aid output speech, noise reduction, SNR improvement, Wiener filter, speech enhancement

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Authors: W. A. Gonçalves, E. P. Souza, C. R. Alcântara

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The ISCCP-Tracking database offers an opportunity to study physical and morphological characteristics of Convective Systems based on geostationary meteorological satellites. This database contains 26 years of tracking of Convective Systems for the entire globe. Then, Tropical Squall Lines which occur in Brazil are certainly within the database. In this study, we propose a methodology for identification of these systems based on the ISCCP-Tracking database. A physical and morphological characterization of these systems is also shown. The proposed methodology is firstly based on the year of 2007. The Squall Lines were subjectively identified by visually analyzing infrared images from GOES-12. Based on this identification, the same systems were identified within the ISCCP-Tracking database. It is known, and it was also observed that the Squall Lines which occur on the north coast of Brazil develop parallel to the coast, influenced by the sea breeze. In addition, it was also observed that the eccentricity of the identified systems was greater than 0.7. Then, a methodology based on the inclination (based on the coast) and eccentricity (greater than 0.7) of the Convective Systems was applied in order to identify and characterize Tropical Squall Lines in Brazil. These thresholds were applied back in the ISCCP-Tracking database for the year of 2007. It was observed that other systems, which were not Squall Lines, were also identified. Then, we decided to call all systems identified by the inclination and eccentricity thresholds as Linear Convective Systems, instead of Squall Lines. After this step, the Linear Convective Systems were identified and characterized for the entire database, from 1983 to 2008. The physical and morphological characteristics of these systems were compared to those systems which did not have the required inclination and eccentricity to be called Linear Convective Systems. The results showed that the convection associated with the Linear Convective Systems seems to be more intense and organized than in the other systems. This affirmation is based on all ISCCP-Tracking variables analyzed. This type of methodology, which explores 26 years of satellite data by an objective analysis, was not previously explored in the literature. The physical and morphological characterization of the Linear Convective Systems based on 26 years of data is of a great importance and should be used in many branches of atmospheric sciences.

Keywords: squall lines, convective systems, linear convective systems, ISCCP-Tracking

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Authors: B. Bergström, A. Ladd, A. Jones, L. Rosso, P. Michael

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Attitudes toward treatment manuals serve as a meaningful predictor of general attitudes toward evidence-based practice. Despite demonstrating high effectiveness in treating many mental disorders, manualized treatments have been underutilized by practitioners. Thus, one can assess the state of the field regarding the adoption of evidence-based practices by surveying practitioner attitudes towards manualized treatments. This study is an adapted replication that assesses psychology graduate student attitudes towards manualized treatments, as a general marker for attitudes towards evidence-based practice. Training programs provide future clinicians with the foundation for critical skills in clinical practice. Research demonstrates that post-graduate continuing education has little to no effect on clinical practice; thus, graduate programs serve as the primary, and often final platform for all future practice. However, there are little empirical data identifying the attitudes and training of graduate students in utilizing manualized treatments. The empirical analysis of this study indicates an increase in positive attitudes among graduate student attitudes towards manualized treatments (within the United States), when compared to past surveys of professional psychologists. Findings from this study may inform graduate programs of barriers for students in developing positive attitudes toward manualized treatments and evidence-based practice. This study also serves as a preliminary predictor of the state-of-the field, in regards to professional psychologists attitudes towards evidence-based practice, if attitudes remain stable. This study indicates that the attitudes toward utilizing evidence-based practices, such as treatment manuals, has become more positive since year 2000.

Keywords: exposure therapy, evidence based practice, manualized treatments, student attitudes

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Authors: Chet Narayan Acharya, Prachyakorn Chaiyakot, Nuttaya Yuangyai

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This research explores the symbiotic relationship between community based tourism (CBT) businesses and sustainable livelihood practices in the context of Amaltari Tharu Village Community, Nepal. Through a thorough investigation, it analyzes the impact of community-based tourism entrepreneurship on local livelihoods. Using an interpretive case study approach, it assesses how tourism activities affect the sociocultural, economic, and environmental dimensions of the community. The research highlights the sustainable livelihood practices embraced by local communities, guided by the principles of sustainable development. The study employs a triangulation approach to analyze data, aiming to generate insights that contribute to a KICK START discourse on sustainable tourism in the region, shedding light on the connection between community-based tourism entrepreneurship and local livelihood practices. The findings are expected to offer valuable discourse among academic researchers and suggestions for sustainable tourism management strategies in similar global contexts.

Keywords: community based tourism businesses, sustainable livelihood, Nepal, sociocultural and environmental impact, kick start discourse

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Authors: Sulaiman Al amro, Ali Alkhalifah

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The growing number of computer viruses and the detection of zero day malware have been the concern for security researchers for a large period of time. Existing antivirus products (AVs) rely on detecting virus signatures which do not provide a full solution to the problems associated with these viruses. The use of logic formulae to model the behaviour of viruses is one of the most encouraging recent developments in virus research, which provides alternatives to classic virus detection methods. In this paper, we proposed a comparative study about different virus detection techniques. This paper provides the advantages and drawbacks of different detection techniques. Different techniques will be used in this paper to provide a discussion about what technique is more effective to detect computer viruses.

Keywords: computer viruses, virus detection, signature-based, behaviour-based, heuristic-based

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Authors: C. M. Balaceanu, G. Suciu, C. S. Bosoc, O. Orza, C. Fernandez, Z. Viniczay

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The Internet of Things (IoT) represents the best option for smart vineyard applications, even if it is necessary to integrate the technologies required for the development. This article is based on the research and the results obtained in the DISAVIT project. For Smart Agriculture, the project aims to provide a trustworthy, intelligent, integrated vineyard management solution that is based on the IoT. To have interoperability through the use of a multiprotocol technology (being the future connected wireless IoT) it is necessary to adopt an agnostic approach, providing a reliable environment to address cyber security, IoT-based threats and traceability through blockchain-based design, but also creating a concept for long-term implementations (modular, scalable). The ones described above represent the main innovative technical aspects of this project. The DISAVIT project studies and promotes the incorporation of better management tools based on objective data-based decisions, which are necessary for agriculture adapted and more resistant to climate change. It also exploits the opportunities generated by the digital services market for smart agriculture management stakeholders. The project's final result aims to improve decision-making, performance, and viticulturally infrastructure and increase real-time data accuracy and interoperability. Innovative aspects such as end-to-end solutions, adaptability, scalability, security and traceability, place our product in a favorable situation over competitors. None of the solutions in the market meet every one of these requirements by a unique product being innovative.

Keywords: blockchain, IoT, smart agriculture, vineyard

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Authors: Madina Hamiane

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Modelling and simulation of an analogy function generator is presented based on a polynomial expansion model. The proposed function generator model is based on a 10th order polynomial approximation of any of the required functions. The polynomial approximations of these functions can then be implemented using basic CMOS circuit blocks. In this paper, a circuit model is proposed that can simultaneously generate many different mathematical functions. The circuit model is designed and simulated with HSPICE and its performance is demonstrated through the simulation of a number of non-linear functions.

Keywords: modelling and simulation, analog function generator, polynomial approximation, CMOS transistors

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Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh, John E. Daniels, Joseph W. McKean

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In this paper numerous robust fitting procedures are considered in estimating spatial variograms. In spatial statistics, the conventional variogram fitting procedure (non-linear weighted least squares) suffers from the same outlier problem that has plagued this method from its inception. Even a 3-parameter model, like the variogram, can be adversely affected by a single outlier. This paper uses the Hogg-Type adaptive procedures to select an optimal score function for a rank-based estimator for these non-linear models. Numeric examples and simulation studies will demonstrate the robustness, utility, efficiency, and validity of these estimates.

Keywords: asymptotic relative efficiency, non-linear rank-based, rank estimates, variogram

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Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Mohammad Ara

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The purpose of this study is to provide some empirical evidence about implementing Activity-Based Costing (ABC) in the hospitality industry in Iran. For this purpose, we consider the Tabriz International Hotel as our sample hotel and then gather the relevant data from its cost accounting system in 2012. Then, we use ABC as our costing method and compare the cost of each service unit with that cost which had been extracted for the traditional costing method. The results show a different cost per unit for two methods. Also, because of its more precise and detailed provided information, an ABC system facilitates the decision-making process for managers on decisions related to profitability analysis, budgeting, pricing, and so on.

Keywords: Activity-Based Costing (ABC), activity, cost driver, hospitality industry

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Authors: Khue Nguyen Dinh, Loi Nguyen Van, Thanh Nguyen Nhu

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In this paper, we propose an adaptive method to resolve ambiguities and a ghost target removal process to extract targets detected by a ground-based pulse-Doppler radar using medium pulse repetition frequency (PRF) waveforms. The ambiguity resolution method is an adaptive implementation of the coincidence algorithm, which is implemented on a two-dimensional (2D) range-velocity matrix to resolve range and velocity ambiguities simultaneously, with a proposed clustering filter to enhance the anti-error ability of the system. Here we consider the scenario of multiple target environments. The ghost target removal process, which is based on the power after Doppler processing, is proposed to mitigate ghosting detections to enhance the performance of ground-based radars using a short PRF schedule in multiple target environments. Simulation results on a ground-based pulsed Doppler radar model will be presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: ambiguity resolution, coincidence algorithm, medium PRF, ghosting removal

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

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Authors: Kelsey Fortin, Susan Harvey

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The intersection between hunger and health outcomes is beginning to gain traction among the research community. With new interventions focusing on collaborations between the medical and social service sectors, this study aimed to understand the acceptability and approach of a health coaching intervention within a county-wide Midwest food pantry. Through formative research, the study used mixed methods to review secondary data and conduct surveys and semi-structured interviews with food pantry clients (n=30), staff (n=7), and volunteers (n=10). Supplemental secondary data collected and provided by pantry staff were reviewed to understand the broader pantry context of clientele health and health behaviors, annual food donations, and current pantry programming. Results from secondary data showed that the broader pantry client population reported high rates of chronic disease, low consumption of fruits and vegetables, and poor self-reported health, while annual donation data showed increases in produce availability on pantry shelves. This disconnect between produce availability, client health status, and behaviors was supported in the current study, with pantry staff and volunteers reporting lack of knowledge in produce selection and preparation being amongst the most common client inquiries and barriers to healthy food selection. Additional supports to secondary data came from pantry clients in the current study through self-reported high rates of both individual (60%, n=18) and household (43%, n=13 ) disease diagnosis, low consumption of fruits and vegetables averaging zero to one servings of vegetables (67%, n=20) and fruits (47%, n=14) per day, and low levels of physical activity averaging zero to 120 minutes per week (67%, n=20). Further, pantry clients provided health coaching programmatic recommendations through interviews with feedback such as non-judgmental coaching, accountability measures, and providing participant incentives as considerations for future program design and approach. Volunteers and staff reported the need for client education in food preparation, basic nutrition and physical activity, and the need for additional health expertise to educate and respond to diet related nutrition recommendations. All three stakeholder groups supported hosting a health coach within the pantry to focused on nutrition, physical activity, and health programming, with one client stating, 'I am hoping it really works out [the health coaching program]. I think it would be great for something like this to be offered for someone that isn’t knowledgeable like me.' In conclusion, high rates of chronic disease, partnered with low food, nutrition, and physical activity literacy among pantry clients, demonstrates the need to address health behaviors. With all three stakeholder groups showing acceptability of a health coaching program, partnered with existing literature showing health coaching success as a behavior change intervention, further research should be conducted to pilot the design and implementation of such a program in the pantry setting.

Keywords: food insecurity, formative research, food pantries, health coaching, hunger and health

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Authors: A. T. Kuda, J. J. Dayya, A. Jimoh

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This paper investigates the fault detection and Isolation technique of measurement data sets from a three tank system using analytical model-based temporal redundancy which is based on residual generation using parity equations/space approach. It further briefly outlines other approaches of model-based residual generation. The basic idea of parity space residual generation in temporal redundancy is dynamic relationship between sensor outputs and actuator inputs (input-output model). These residuals where then used to detect whether or not the system is faulty and indicate the location of the fault when it is faulty. The method obtains good results by detecting and isolating faults from the considered data sets measurements generated from the system.

Keywords: fault detection, fault isolation, disturbing influences, system failure, parity equation/relation, structured parity equations

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Authors: Priyal Motwani

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The current market for bamboo products in India is about Rs. 21000 crores and is highly unorganised and fragmented. In this study, we have closely analysed the structure and functions of a major bamboo craft based organisation in Kerela, India and elaborated about its value chain, product mix, pricing strategy and supply chain, collaborations and competitive landscape. We have identified six major bottlenecks that are prevalent in such organisations, based on the Indian context, in relation to their product mix, asset management, and supply chain- corresponding waste management and retail network. The study has identified that the target customers for the bamboo based products and alternative revenue streams (eco-tourism, microenterprises, training), by carrying out secondary and primary research (5000 sample space), that can boost the existing revenue by 150%. We have then recommended an optimum product mix-covering premium, medium and low valued processing, for medium sized bamboo based organisations, in accordance with their capacity to maximize their revenue potential. After studying such organisations and their counter parts, the study has established an optimum retail network, considering B2B, B2C physical and online retail, to maximize their sales to their target groups. On the basis of the results obtained from the analysis of the future and present trends, our study gives recommendations to improve the revenue potential of bamboo based organisation in India and promote sustainability.

Keywords: bamboo, bottlenecks, optimization, product mix, retail network, value chain

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Authors: I. Pelizzoni, C. Cavallini, I. Salvaderi, F. Cavallini

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We present the improvement in writing skills obtained by 94 participants (aged between six and 10 years) with special educational needs through a writing enhancement program based on fluency principles. The study was planned and conducted with a single-subject experimental plan for each of the participants, in order to confirm the results in the literature. These results were obtained using precision teaching (PT) methodology to increase the number of written graphemes per minute in the pre- and post-test, by curriculum based measurement (CBM). Results indicated an increase in the number of written graphemes for all participants. The average overall duration of the intervention is 144 minutes in five months of treatment. These considerations have been analyzed taking account of the complexity of the implementation of measurement systems in real operational contexts (an Italian learning center) and important aspects of replicability and cost-effectiveness of such interventions.

Keywords: curriculum based measurement, precision teaching, writing skill, Italian learning center

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Authors: Cinzia Carrodano, Dimitri Konstantas

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Risk is part of our lives. In today’s society risk is connected to our safety and safety has become a major priority in our life. Each person lives his/her life based on the evaluation of the risk he/she is ready to accept and sustain, and the level of safety he/she wishes to reach, based on highly personal criteria. The assessment of risk a person takes in a complex environment and the impact of actions of other people’actions and events on our perception of risk are alements to be considered. The concept of Holistic Risk Assessment (HRA) aims in developing a methodology and a model that will allow us to take into account elements outside the direct influence of the individual, and provide a personalized risk assessment. The concept is based on the fact that in the near future, we will be able to gather and process extremely large amounts of data about an individual and his/her environment in real time. The interaction and correlation of these data is the key element of the holistic risk assessment. In this paper, we present the HRA concept and describe the most important elements and considerations.

Keywords: continuous data, dynamic risk, holistic risk assessment, risk concept

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: early warning system, knowledge management, market prediction, topic modeling.

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Authors: Sefa Aksu, Ünal Kızıl

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For this study, a town based soil database created in Gümüşçay District of Biga Town, Çanakkale, Turkey. Crop and livestock production are major activities in the district. Nutrient management is mainly based on commercial fertilizer application ignoring the livestock manure. Within the boundaries of district, 122 soil sampling points determined over the satellite image. Soil samples collected from the determined points with the help of handheld Global Positioning System. Labeled samples were sent to a commercial laboratory to determine 11 soil parameters including salinity, pH, lime, organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, iron, manganese, copper and zinc. Based on the test results soil maps for mentioned parameters were developed using remote sensing, GIS, and geostatistical analysis. In this study we developed a GIS database that will be used for soil nutrient management. Methods were explained and soil maps and their interpretations were summarized in the study.

Keywords: geostatistics, GIS, nutrient management, soil mapping

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Authors: Susanta Kumar Gachhayat, S. K. Dash

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Multi objective non-convex economic dispatch problems of a thermal power plant are of grave concern for deciding the cost of generation and reduction of emission level for diminishing the global warming level for improving green-house effect. This paper deals with ramp rate constraints for achieving better inequality constraints so as to incorporate valve point loading for cost of generation in thermal power plant through ramp rate biogeography based optimization involving mutation and migration. Through 50 out of 100 trials, the cost function and emission objective function were found to have outperformed other classical methods such as lambda iteration method, quadratic programming method and many heuristic methods like particle swarm optimization method, weight improved particle swarm optimization method, constriction factor based particle swarm optimization method, moderate random particle swarm optimization method etc. Ramp rate biogeography based optimization applications prove quite advantageous in solving non convex multi objective economic dispatch problems subjected to nonlinear loads that pollute the source giving rise to third harmonic distortions and other such disturbances.

Keywords: economic load dispatch, ELD, biogeography-based optimization, BBO, ramp rate biogeography-based optimization, RRBBO, valve-point loading, VPL

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Authors: S. Deswal, M. Pal

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The paper aims to compare the performance of vertical and inclined multiple plunging jets and to model and predict their mass transfer capacity by multi-linear regression based approach. The multiple vertical plunging jets have jet impact angle of θ = 90O; whereas, multiple inclined plunging jets have jet impact angle of θ = 600. The results of the study suggests that mass transfer is higher for multiple jets, and inclined multiple plunging jets have up to 1.6 times higher mass transfer than vertical multiple plunging jets under similar conditions. The derived relationship, based on multi-linear regression approach, has successfully predicted the volumetric mass transfer coefficient (KLa) from operational parameters of multiple plunging jets with a correlation coefficient of 0.973, root mean square error of 0.002 and coefficient of determination of 0.946. The results suggests that predicted overall mass transfer coefficient is in good agreement with actual experimental values; thereby suggesting the utility of derived relationship based on multi-linear regression based approach and can be successfully employed in modelling mass transfer by multiple plunging jets.

Keywords: mass transfer, multiple plunging jets, multi-linear regression, earth sciences

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Authors: Darrol Stanley, Levan Efremidze, Jannie Rossouw

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We investigate the predictability of the USD/ZAR (South African Rand) exchange rate with sample entropy analytics for the period of 2004-2015. We calculate sample entropy based on the daily data of the exchange rate and conduct empirical implementation of several market timing rules based on these entropy signals. The dynamic investment portfolio based on entropy signals produces better risk adjusted performance than a buy and hold strategy. The returns are estimated on the portfolio values in U.S. dollars. These results are preliminary and do not yet account for reasonable transactions costs, although these are very small in currency markets.

Keywords: currency trading, entropy, market timing, risk factor model

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Authors: Rami El-Hajj Mohamad, Mahmoud Skafi, Ali Massoud Haidar

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Several meteorological parameters were used for the prediction of monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Climatological data and measures, mainly air temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed between 1995 and 2007 were used to design and validate a feed forward and recurrent neural network based prediction systems. In this paper we present our reference system based on a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) as well as the proposed approach based on an RNN model. The obtained results were promising and comparable to those obtained by other existing empirical and neural models. The experimental results showed the advantage of RNNs over simple MLPs when we deal with time series solar radiation predictions based on daily climatological data.

Keywords: recurrent neural networks, global solar radiation, multi-layer perceptron, gradient, root mean square error

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Authors: Shahbaz G. Hassan

Abstract:

Water quality models are very important to predict the changes in surface water quality for environmental management. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the water qualities, and to provide directions for selecting models in specific situation. Water quality models include one kind of model based on a mechanistic approach, while other models simulate water quality without considering a mechanism. Mechanistic models can be widely applied and have capabilities for long-time simulation, with highly complexity. Therefore, more spaces are provided to explain the principle and application experience of mechanistic models. Mechanism models have certain assumptions on rivers, lakes and estuaries, which limits the application range of the model, this paper introduces the principles and applications of water quality model based on the above three scenarios. On the other hand, mechanistic models are more easily to compute, and with no limit to the geographical conditions, but they cannot be used with confidence to simulate long term changes. This paper divides the empirical models into two broad categories according to the difference of mathematical algorithm, models based on artificial intelligence and models based on statistical methods.

Keywords: empirical models, mathematical, statistical, water quality

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