Search results for: Support Vector Regression
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10521

Search results for: Support Vector Regression

9681 A Research on Tourism Market Forecast and Its Evaluation

Authors: Min Wei

Abstract:

The traditional prediction methods of the forecast for tourism market are paid more attention to the accuracy of the forecasts, ignoring the results of the feasibility of forecasting and predicting operability, which had made it difficult to predict the results of scientific testing. With the application of Linear Regression Model, this paper attempts to construct a scientific evaluation system for predictive value, both to ensure the accuracy, stability of the predicted value, and to ensure the feasibility of forecasting and predicting the results of operation. The findings show is that a scientific evaluation system can implement the scientific concept of development, the harmonious development of man and nature co-ordinate.

Keywords: linear regression model, tourism market, forecast, tourism economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 330
9680 Application of the Quantile Regression Approach to the Heterogeneity of the Fine Wine Prices

Authors: Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme, Benoit Faye, Eric Le Fur

Abstract:

In this paper, the heterogeneity of the Bordeaux Legends 50 wine market price segment is addressed. For this purpose, quantile regression is applied – with market segmentation based on wine bottle price quantile – and the hedonic price of wine attributes is computed for various price segments of the market. The approach is applied to a major privately held data set which consists of approximately 30,000 transactions over the 2003–2014 period. The findings suggest that the relative hedonic prices of several wine attributes differ significantly among deciles. In particular, the elasticity coefficient of the expert ratings shows strong variation among prices. If - as suggested in the literature - expert ratings have a positive influence on wine price on average, they have a clearly decreasing impact over the quantiles. Finally, the lower the wine price, the higher the potential for price appreciation over time. Other variables such as chateaux or vintage are also shown to vary across the distribution of wine prices. While enhancing our understanding of the complex market dynamics that underlie Bordeaux wines’ price, this research provides empirical evidence that the QR approach adequately captures heterogeneity among wine price ranges, which simultaneously applies to wine stock, vintage and auctions’ house.

Keywords: hedonics, market segmentation, quantile regression, heterogeneity, wine economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 338
9679 Exploring the Relationships between Cyberbullying Perceptions and Facebook Attitudes of Turkish Students

Authors: Yavuz Erdoğan, Hidayet Çiftçi

Abstract:

Cyberbullying, a phenomenon among adolescents, is defined as actions that use information and communication technologies such as social media to support deliberate, repeated, and hostile behaviour by an individual or group. With the advancement in communication and information technology, cyberbullying has expanded its boundaries among students in schools. Thus, parents, psychologists, educators, and lawmakers must become aware of the potential risks of this phenomenon. In the light of these perspectives, this study aims to investigate the relationships between cyberbullying perception and Facebook attitudes of Turkish students. A survey method was used for the study and the data were collected by “Cyberbullying Perception Scale”, “Facebook Attitude Scale” and “Personal Information Form”. For this purpose, study has been conducted during 2014-2015 academic year, with a total of 748 students with 493 male (%65.9) and 255 female (%34.1) from randomly selected high schools. In the analysis of data Pearson correlation and multiple regression analysis, multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and Scheffe post hoc test has been used. At the end of the study, the results displayed a negative correlation between Turkish students’ Facebook attitudes and cyberbullying perception (r=-.210; p<0.05). In order to identify the predictors of students’ cyberbullying perception, multiple regression analysis was used. As a result, significant relations were detected between cyberbullying perception and independent variables (F=5.102; p<0.05). Independent variables together explain 11.0% of the total variance in cyberbullying scores. The variables that significantly predict the students’ cyberbullying perception are Facebook attitudes (t=-5.875; p<0.05), and gender (t=3.035; p<0.05). In order to calculate the effects of independent variables on students’ Facebook attitudes and cyberbullying perception MANOVA was conducted. The results of the MANOVA indicate that the Facebook attitudes and cyberbullying perception were significantly differed according to students’ gender, age, educational attainment of the mother, educational attainment of the father, income of the family and daily usage of internet.

Keywords: facebook, cyberbullying, attitude, internet usage

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9678 A General Framework for Knowledge Discovery Using High Performance Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: S. Nandagopalan, N. Pradeep

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to propose a general framework for storing, analyzing, and extracting knowledge from two-dimensional echocardiographic images, color Doppler images, non-medical images, and general data sets. A number of high performance data mining algorithms have been used to carry out this task. Our framework encompasses four layers namely physical storage, object identification, knowledge discovery, user level. Techniques such as active contour model to identify the cardiac chambers, pixel classification to segment the color Doppler echo image, universal model for image retrieval, Bayesian method for classification, parallel algorithms for image segmentation, etc., were employed. Using the feature vector database that have been efficiently constructed, one can perform various data mining tasks like clustering, classification, etc. with efficient algorithms along with image mining given a query image. All these facilities are included in the framework that is supported by state-of-the-art user interface (UI). The algorithms were tested with actual patient data and Coral image database and the results show that their performance is better than the results reported already.

Keywords: active contour, bayesian, echocardiographic image, feature vector

Procedia PDF Downloads 418
9677 Framework for Decision Support Tool for Quality Control and Management in Botswana Manufacturing Companies

Authors: Mogale Sabone, Thabiso Ntlole

Abstract:

The pressure from globalization has made manufacturing organizations to move towards three major competitive arenas: quality, cost, and responsiveness. Quality is a universal value and has become a global issue. In order to survive and be able to provide customers with good products, manufacturing organizations’ supporting systems, tools, and structures it uses must grow or evolve. The majority of quality management concepts and strategies that are practiced recently are aimed at detecting and correcting problems which already exist and serve to limit losses. In agile manufacturing environment there is no room for defect and error so it needs a quality management which is proactively directed at problem prevention. This proactive quality management avoids losses by focusing on failure prevention, virtual elimination of the possibility of premature failure, mistake-proofing, and assuring consistently high quality in the definition and design of creation processes. To achieve this, a decision support tool for quality control and management is suggested. Current decision support tools/methods used by most manufacturing companies in Botswana for quality management and control are not integrated, for example they are not consistent since some tests results data is recorded manually only whilst others are recorded electronically. It is only a set of procedures not a tool. These procedures cannot offer interactive decision support. This point brings to light the aim of this research which is to develop a framework which will help manufacturing companies in Botswana build a decision support tool for quality control and management.

Keywords: decision support tool, manufacturing, quality control, quality management

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9676 A Neuro-Automata Decision Support System for the Control of Late Blight in Tomato Crops

Authors: Gizelle K. Vianna, Gustavo S. Oliveira, Gabriel V. Cunha

Abstract:

The use of decision support systems in agriculture may help monitoring large fields of crops by automatically detecting the symptoms of foliage diseases. In our work, we designed and implemented a decision support system for small tomatoes producers. This work investigates ways to recognize the late blight disease from the analysis of digital images of tomatoes, using a pair of multilayer perceptron neural networks. The networks outputs are used to generate repainted tomato images in which the injuries on the plant are highlighted, and to calculate the damage level of each plant. Those levels are then used to construct a situation map of a farm where a cellular automata simulates the outbreak evolution over the fields. The simulator can test different pesticides actions, helping in the decision on when to start the spraying and in the analysis of losses and gains of each choice of action.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, cellular automata, decision support system, pattern recognition

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9675 Factors Affecting Green Consumption Behaviors of the Urban Residents in Hanoi, Vietnam

Authors: Phan Thi Song Thuong

Abstract:

This paper uses data from a survey on the green consumption behavior of Hanoi residents in October 2022. Data was gathered from a survey conducted in ten districts in the center of Hanoi, with 393 respondents. The hypothesis focuses on understanding the factors that may affect green consumption behavior, such as demographic characteristics, concerns about the environment and health, people living around, self-efficiency, and mass media. A number of methods, such as the T-test, exploratory factor analysis, and a linear regression model, are used to prove the hypotheses. Accordingly, the results show that gender, age, and education level have separate effects on the green consumption behavior of respondents.

Keywords: green consumption, urban residents, environment, sustainable, linear regression

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9674 Development of a Mobile Image-Based Reminder Application to Support Tuberculosis Treatment in Africa

Authors: Haji Ali Haji, Hussein Suleman, Ulrike Rivett

Abstract:

This paper presents the design, development and evaluation of an application prototype developed to support tuberculosis (TB) patients’ treatment adherence. The system makes use of graphics and voice reminders as opposed to text messaging to encourage patients to follow their medication routine. To evaluate the effect of the prototype applications, participants were given mobile phones on which the reminder system was installed. Thirty-eight people, including TB health workers and patients from Zanzibar, Tanzania, participated in the evaluation exercises. The results indicate that the participants found the mobile graphic-based application is useful to support TB treatment. All participants understood and interpreted the intended meaning of every image correctly. The study findings revealed that the use of a mobile visual-based application may have potential benefit to support TB patients (both literate and illiterate) in their treatment processes.

Keywords: ICT4D, mobile technology, tuberculosis, visual-based reminder

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9673 Forecasting the Future Implications of ChatGPT Usage in Education Based on AI Algorithms

Authors: Yakubu Bala Mohammed, Nadire Chavus, Mohammed Bulama

Abstract:

Generative Pre-trained Transformer (ChatGPT) represents an artificial intelligence (AI) tool capable of swiftly generating comprehensive responses to prompts and follow-up inquiries. This emerging AI tool was introduced in November 2022 by OpenAI firm, an American AI research laboratory, utilizing substantial language models. This present study aims to delve into the potential future consequences of ChatGPT usage in education using AI-based algorithms. The paper will bring forth the likely potential risks of ChatGBT utilization, such as academic integrity concerns, unfair learning assessments, excessive reliance on AI, and dissemination of inaccurate information using four machine learning algorithms: eXtreme-Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Support vector machine (SVM), Emotional artificial neural network (EANN), and Random forest (RF) would be used to analyze the study collected data due to their robustness. Finally, the findings of the study will assist education stakeholders in understanding the future implications of ChatGPT usage in education and propose solutions and directions for upcoming studies.

Keywords: machine learning, ChatGPT, education, learning, implications

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9672 Data Mining Approach for Commercial Data Classification and Migration in Hybrid Storage Systems

Authors: Mais Haj Qasem, Maen M. Al Assaf, Ali Rodan

Abstract:

Parallel hybrid storage systems consist of a hierarchy of different storage devices that vary in terms of data reading speed performance. As we ascend in the hierarchy, data reading speed becomes faster. Thus, migrating the application’ important data that will be accessed in the near future to the uppermost level will reduce the application I/O waiting time; hence, reducing its execution elapsed time. In this research, we implement trace-driven two-levels parallel hybrid storage system prototype that consists of HDDs and SSDs. The prototype uses data mining techniques to classify application’ data in order to determine its near future data accesses in parallel with the its on-demand request. The important data (i.e. the data that the application will access in the near future) are continuously migrated to the uppermost level of the hierarchy. Our simulation results show that our data migration approach integrated with data mining techniques reduces the application execution elapsed time when using variety of traces in at least to 22%.

Keywords: hybrid storage system, data mining, recurrent neural network, support vector machine

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9671 Pharmaceutical Applications of Newton's Second Law and Disc Inertia

Authors: Nicholas Jensen

Abstract:

As the effort to create new drugs to treat rare conditions cost-effectively intensifies, there is a need to ensure maximum efficiency in the manufacturing process. This includes the creation of ultracompact treatment forms, which can best be achieved via applications of fundamental laws of physics. This paper reports an experiment exploring the relationship between the forms of Newton's 2ⁿᵈ Law appropriate to linear motion and to transversal architraves. The moment of inertia of three discs was determined by experiments and compared with previous data derived from a theoretical relationship. The method used was to attach the discs to a moment arm. Comparing the results with those obtained from previous experiments, it is found to be consistent with the first law of thermodynamics. It was further found that Newton's 2ⁿᵈ law violates the second law of thermodynamics. The purpose of this experiment was to explore the relationship between the forms of Newton's 2nd Law appropriate to linear motion and to apply torque to a twisting force, which is determined by position vector r and force vector F. Substituting equation alpha in place of beta; angular acceleration is a linear acceleration divided by radius r of the moment arm. The nevrological analogy of Newton's 2nd Law states that these findings can contribute to a fuller understanding of thermodynamics in relation to viscosity. Implications for the pharmaceutical industry will be seen to be fruitful from these findings.

Keywords: Newtonian physics, inertia, viscosity, pharmaceutical applications

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9670 A Statistical Model for the Geotechnical Parameters of Cement-Stabilised Hightown’s Soft Soil: A Case Stufy of Liverpool, UK

Authors: Hassnen M. Jafer, Khalid S. Hashim, W. Atherton, Ali W. Alattabi

Abstract:

This study investigates the effect of two important parameters (length of curing period and percentage of the added binder) on the strength of soil treated with OPC. An intermediate plasticity silty clayey soil with medium organic content was used in this study. This soft soil was treated with different percentages of a commercially available cement type 32.5-N. laboratory experiments were carried out on the soil treated with 0, 1.5, 3, 6, 9, and 12% OPC by the dry weight to determine the effect of OPC on the compaction parameters, consistency limits, and the compressive strength. Unconfined compressive strength (UCS) test was carried out on cement-treated specimens after exposing them to different curing periods (1, 3, 7, 14, 28, and 90 days). The results of UCS test were used to develop a non-linear multi-regression model to find the relationship between the predicted and the measured maximum compressive strength of the treated soil (qu). The results indicated that there was a significant improvement in the index of plasticity (IP) by treating with OPC; IP was decreased from 20.2 to 14.1 by using 12% of OPC; this percentage was enough to increase the UCS of the treated soil up to 1362 kPa after 90 days of curing. With respect to the statistical model of the predicted qu, the results showed that the regression coefficients (R2) was equal to 0.8534 which indicates a good reproducibility for the constructed model.

Keywords: cement admixtures, soft soil stabilisation, geotechnical parameters, multi-regression model

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9669 Prediction of Malawi Rainfall from Global Sea Surface Temperature Using a Simple Multiple Regression Model

Authors: Chisomo Patrick Kumbuyo, Katsuyuki Shimizu, Hiroshi Yasuda, Yoshinobu Kitamura

Abstract:

This study deals with a way of predicting Malawi rainfall from global sea surface temperature (SST) using a simple multiple regression model. Monthly rainfall data from nine stations in Malawi grouped into two zones on the basis of inter-station rainfall correlations were used in the study. Zone 1 consisted of Karonga and Nkhatabay stations, located in northern Malawi; and Zone 2 consisted of Bolero, located in northern Malawi; Kasungu, Dedza, Salima, located in central Malawi; Mangochi, Makoka and Ngabu stations located in southern Malawi. Links between Malawi rainfall and SST based on statistical correlations were evaluated and significant results selected as predictors for the regression models. The predictors for Zone 1 model were identified from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans while those for Zone 2 were identified from the Pacific Ocean. The correlation between the fit of predicted and observed rainfall values of the models were satisfactory with r=0.81 and 0.54 for Zone 1 and 2 respectively (significant at less than 99.99%). The results of the models are in agreement with other findings that suggest that SST anomalies in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans have an influence on the rainfall patterns of Southern Africa.

Keywords: Malawi rainfall, forecast model, predictors, SST

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9668 Dengue Virus Infection Rate in Mosquitoes Collected in Thailand Related to Environmental Factors

Authors: Chanya Jetsukontorn

Abstract:

Dengue hemorrhagic fever is the most important Mosquito-borne disease and the major public health problem in Thailand. The most important vector is Aedes aegypti. Environmental factors such as temperature, relative humidity, and biting rate affect dengue virus infection. The most effective measure for prevention is controlling of vector mosquitoes. In addition, surveillance of field-caught mosquitoes is imperative for determining the natural vector and can provide an early warning sign at risk of transmission in an area. In this study, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes were collected in Amphur Muang, Phetchabun Province, Thailand. The mosquitoes were collected in the rainy season and the dry season both indoor and outdoor. During mosquito’s collection, the data of environmental factors such as temperature, humidity and breeding sites were observed and recorded. After identified to species, mosquitoes were pooled according to genus/species, and sampling location. Pools consisted of a maximum of 10 Aedes mosquitoes. 70 pools of 675 Aedes aegypti were screened with RT-PCR for flaviviruses. To confirm individual infection for determining True infection rate, individual mosquitoes which gave positive results of flavivirus detection were tested for dengue virus by RT-PCR. The infection rate was 5.93% (4 positive individuals from 675 mosquitoes). The probability to detect dengue virus in mosquitoes at the neighbour’s houses was 1.25 times, especially where distances between neighboring houses and patient’s houses were less than 50 meters. The relative humidity in dengue-infected villages with dengue-infected mosquitoes was significantly higher than villages that free from dengue-infected mosquitoes. Indoor biting rate of Aedes aegypti was 14.87 times higher than outdoor, and biting times of 09.00-10.00, 10.00-11.00, 11.00-12.00 yielded 1.77, 1.46, 0.68mosquitoes/man-hour, respectively. These findings confirm environmental factors were related to Dengue infection in Thailand. Data obtained from this study will be useful for the prevention and control of the diseases.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, Dengue virus, environmental factors, one health, PCR

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9667 A Comparative Study of Resilience Factors of First-Generation Students of Social Work with Their Non-first Generation Fellow Students

Authors: K. Verlinden

Abstract:

Being the first family member to study is challenging due to the lack of intergenerational support, financial challenges, etc. The often very deficit-oriented view of these first-generation students (FGS) is challenged by assuming that precisely these students have a high degree of resilience, which will be demonstrated by comparing individual resilience factors. First-generation students are disproportionately often found in courses of social work. Correspondingly, this study compares two samples from social work (FGS vs. non-FGS) with regard to certain determinants of resilience, such as grit, social support, self-efficacy, sense of coherence, and emotional intelligence. An online questionnaire was generated from valid psychological instruments and handed out to the sample. The results portray a double mediation model in which gender and being an FGS associate with lower levels of individual resources, which in then associate with social support. This tiered model supports the possibility that individual resources facilitate the recruitment and use of social support and perhaps other related social resources to better cope with academic challenges.

Keywords: resilience, first generation students, grit, self-efficacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
9666 Vibration-Based Data-Driven Model for Road Health Monitoring

Authors: Guru Prakash, Revanth Dugalam

Abstract:

A road’s condition often deteriorates due to harsh loading such as overload due to trucks, and severe environmental conditions such as heavy rain, snow load, and cyclic loading. In absence of proper maintenance planning, this results in potholes, wide cracks, bumps, and increased roughness of roads. In this paper, a data-driven model will be developed to detect these damages using vibration and image signals. The key idea of the proposed methodology is that the road anomaly manifests in these signals, which can be detected by training a machine learning algorithm. The use of various machine learning techniques such as the support vector machine and Radom Forest method will be investigated. The proposed model will first be trained and tested with artificially simulated data, and the model architecture will be finalized by comparing the accuracies of various models. Once a model is fixed, the field study will be performed, and data will be collected. The field data will be used to validate the proposed model and to predict the future road’s health condition. The proposed will help to automate the road condition monitoring process, repair cost estimation, and maintenance planning process.

Keywords: SVM, data-driven, road health monitoring, pot-hole

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9665 Employee Aggression, Labeling and Emotional Intelligence

Authors: Martin Popescu D. Dana Maria

Abstract:

The aims of this research are to broaden the study on the relationship between emotional intelligence and counterproductive work behavior (CWB). The study sample consisted in 441 Romanian employees from companies all over the country. Data has been collected through web surveys and processed with SPSS. The results indicated an average correlation between the two constructs and their sub variables, employees with a high level of emotional intelligence tend to be less aggressive. In addition, labeling was considered an individual difference which has the power to influence the level of employee aggression. A regression model was used to underline the importance of emotional intelligence together with labeling as predictors of CWB. Results have shown that this regression model enforces the assumption that labeling and emotional intelligence, taken together, predict CWB. Employees, who label themselves as victims and have a low degree of emotional intelligence, have a higher level of CWB.

Keywords: aggression, CWB, emotional intelligence, labeling

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9664 The Associations of Family Support with Sexual Behaviour and Repeat Induced Abortion among Chinese Adolescents

Authors: Jiashu Shen

Abstract:

Background: The abortion rate has increased significantly, which is harmful especially to adolescents, making repeat induced abortion (RIA) among adolescents a social problem. This study aims to investigate the associations of family support with sexual behavior and repeat induced abortion among Chinese adolescents Methods: This study based on a national hospital-based sample with 945 girls aged 15-19 who underwent induced abortion in 43 hospitals. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to estimated odds ratio for the risk factors. Results: Adolescences living with parents were less inclined to undergo RIA, especially if they were rural (adjusted odds ratio=0.48 95%CI 0.31-0.72) and local (adjusted odds ratio =0.39 95%=0.23-0.66). Those with parental financial support were likely to have less sexual partnersand take contraceptives more regularly. Those with higher self-perceived importance in family were more likely to take contraceptives during the first sexual intercourse in higher age, and with higher first abortion age and less sexual partners. Conclusion: In mainland China, living with parents, parental financial support, high self-perceived importance in family and adequate family sexuality communications may contribute to lower incidence of RIA.

Keywords: Chinese adolescent, family support, repeat induced abortion, sexual behavior

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9663 Analysing Time Series for a Forecasting Model to the Dynamics of Aedes Aegypti Population Size

Authors: Flavia Cordeiro, Fabio Silva, Alvaro Eiras, Jose Luiz Acebal

Abstract:

Aedes aegypti is present in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world and is a vector of several diseases such as dengue fever, yellow fever, chikungunya, zika etc. The growth in the number of arboviruses cases in the last decades became a matter of great concern worldwide. Meteorological factors like mean temperature and precipitation are known to influence the infestation by the species through effects on physiology and ecology, altering the fecundity, mortality, lifespan, dispersion behaviour and abundance of the vector. Models able to describe the dynamics of the vector population size should then take into account the meteorological variables. The relationship between meteorological factors and the population dynamics of Ae. aegypti adult females are studied to provide a good set of predictors to model the dynamics of the mosquito population size. The time-series data of capture of adult females of a public health surveillance program from the city of Lavras, MG, Brazil had its association with precipitation, humidity and temperature analysed through a set of statistical methods for time series analysis commonly adopted in Signal Processing, Information Theory and Neuroscience. Cross-correlation, multicollinearity test and whitened cross-correlation were applied to determine in which time lags would occur the influence of meteorological variables on the dynamics of the mosquito abundance. Among the findings, the studied case indicated strong collinearity between humidity and precipitation, and precipitation was selected to form a pair of descriptors together with temperature. In the techniques used, there were observed significant associations between infestation indicators and both temperature and precipitation in short, mid and long terms, evincing that those variables should be considered in entomological models and as public health indicators. A descriptive model used to test the results exhibits a strong correlation to data.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, cross-correlation, multicollinearity, meteorological variables

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9662 Selection of Designs in Ordinal Regression Models under Linear Predictor Misspecification

Authors: Ishapathik Das

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs

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9661 Modelling Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility with Markov-Switching Regression, Single Regime GARCH and Markov-Switching GARCH Models: Empirical Evidence from South Africa

Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

Abstract:

Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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9660 Isolation and Classification of Red Blood Cells in Anemic Microscopic Images

Authors: Jameela Ali Alkrimi, Abdul Rahim Ahmad, Azizah Suliman, Loay E. George

Abstract:

Red blood cells (RBCs) are among the most commonly and intensively studied type of blood cells in cell biology. The lack of RBCs is a condition characterized by lower than normal hemoglobin level; this condition is referred to as 'anemia'. In this study, a software was developed to isolate RBCs by using a machine learning approach to classify anemic RBCs in microscopic images. Several features of RBCs were extracted using image processing algorithms, including principal component analysis (PCA). With the proposed method, RBCs were isolated in 34 second from an image containing 18 to 27 cells. We also proposed that PCA could be performed to increase the speed and efficiency of classification. Our classifier algorithm yielded accuracy rates of 100%, 99.99%, and 96.50% for K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) algorithm, support vector machine (SVM), and neural network ANN, respectively. Classification was evaluated in highly sensitivity, specificity, and kappa statistical parameters. In conclusion, the classification results were obtained for a short time period with more efficient when PCA was used.

Keywords: red blood cells, pre-processing image algorithms, classification algorithms, principal component analysis PCA, confusion matrix, kappa statistical parameters, ROC

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9659 A Study of Classification Models to Predict Drill-Bit Breakage Using Degradation Signals

Authors: Bharatendra Rai

Abstract:

Cutting tools are widely used in manufacturing processes and drilling is the most commonly used machining process. Although drill-bits used in drilling may not be expensive, their breakage can cause damage to expensive work piece being drilled and at the same time has major impact on productivity. Predicting drill-bit breakage, therefore, is important in reducing cost and improving productivity. This study uses twenty features extracted from two degradation signals viz., thrust force and torque. The methodology used involves developing and comparing decision tree, random forest, and multinomial logistic regression models for classifying and predicting drill-bit breakage using degradation signals.

Keywords: degradation signal, drill-bit breakage, random forest, multinomial logistic regression

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9658 Isolation Preserving Medical Conclusion Hold Structure via C5 Algorithm

Authors: Swati Kishor Zode, Rahul Ambekar

Abstract:

Data mining is the extraction of fascinating examples on the other hand information from enormous measure of information and choice is made as indicated by the applicable information extracted. As of late, with the dangerous advancement in internet, stockpiling of information and handling procedures, privacy preservation has been one of the major (higher) concerns in data mining. Various techniques and methods have been produced for protection saving data mining. In the situation of Clinical Decision Support System, the choice is to be made on the premise of the data separated from the remote servers by means of Internet to diagnose the patient. In this paper, the fundamental thought is to build the precision of Decision Support System for multiple diseases for different maladies and in addition protect persistent information while correspondence between Clinician side (Client side) also, the Server side. A privacy preserving protocol for clinical decision support network is proposed so that patients information dependably stay scrambled amid diagnose prepare by looking after the accuracy. To enhance the precision of Decision Support System for various malady C5.0 classifiers and to save security, a Homomorphism encryption algorithm Paillier cryptosystem is being utilized.

Keywords: classification, homomorphic encryption, clinical decision support, privacy

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9657 A Study on Reliability of Gender and Stature Determination by Odontometric and Craniofacial Anthropometric Parameters

Authors: Churamani Pokhrel, C. B. Jha, S. R. Niraula, P. R. Pokharel

Abstract:

Human identification is one of the most challenging subjects that man has confronted. The determination of adult sex and stature are two of the four key factors (sex, stature, age, and race) in identification of an individual. Craniofacial and odontometric parameters are important tools for forensic anthropologists when it is not possible to apply advanced techniques for identification purposes. The present study provides anthropometric correlation of the parameters with stature and gender and also devises regression formulae for reconstruction of stature. A total of 312 Nepalese students with equal distribution of sex i.e., 156 male and 156 female students of age 18-35 years were taken for the study. Total of 10 parameters were measured (age, sex, stature, head circumference, head length, head breadth, facial height, bi-zygomatic width, mesio-distal canine width and inter-canine distance of both maxilla and mandible). Co-relation and regression analysis was done to find the association between the parameters. All parameters were found to be greater in males than females and each was found to be statistically significant. Out of total 312 samples, the best regressor for the determination of stature was head circumference and mandibular inter-canine width and that for gender was head circumference and right mandibular teeth. The accuracy of prediction was 83%. Regression equations and analysis generated from craniofacial and odontometric parameters can be a supplementary approach for the estimation of stature and gender when extremities are not available.

Keywords: craniofacial, gender, odontometric, stature

Procedia PDF Downloads 190
9656 Current Status of Mosquitoes Vector Research and Control in Iran

Authors: Seyed Hassan Moosa-kazemi, Hassan Vatandoost

Abstract:

Malaria, Dirofilaria immitis (dog heart worm), and D. repens (dirofilariasis), which are transmitted by mosquitoes, have been reported in Iran. The Iranian mosquito fauna includes seven genera, 65 species, and three subspecies. Aedes albopictus has been reported since. West Nile, Sindbis, Dengue, Japanese encephalitis viruses, and the nematode Setaria (setariasis) has been reported in the country but there are no information about their vectors in Iran. Iran is malaria elimination phase. Insecticides residual spraying (IRS), distributed of insecticides long lasting treated nets (ITNs), fogging, release of larvivours fishes and Bacillus thuringiensis, chemical larviciding, as well as case finding and manipulation and modification of breeding places carried out thought the IVM program in the country. Prolonged exposure to insecticides over several generations of the vectors, develop resistance, a capacity to survive contact with insecticides. However, use of insecticides in agriculture has often been implicated as contributing to resistance in mosquito’s vectors. Resistance of mosquitoes to some insecticides has been documented just within a few years after the insecticides were introduced. Some enzymes such as monooxygenases, esterases and glutathione S-transferases have been considered as a reason for resistance to pyrethroid insecticides. In conclusion, regarding to documented resistance and tolerance of mosquitoes vectors to some insecticides, resistance management is suggested by using new insecticide with novel mode of action.

Keywords: control, Iran, resistance, vector

Procedia PDF Downloads 302
9655 The Intention to Use Telecare in People of Fall Experience: Application of Fuzzy Neural Network

Authors: Jui-Chen Huang, Shou-Hsiung Cheng

Abstract:

This study examined their willingness to use telecare for people who have had experience falling in the last three months in Taiwan. This study adopted convenience sampling and a structural questionnaire to collect data. It was based on the definition and the constructs related to the Health Belief Model (HBM). HBM is comprised of seven constructs: perceived benefits (PBs), perceived disease threat (PDT), perceived barriers of taking action (PBTA), external cues to action (ECUE), internal cues to action (ICUE), attitude toward using (ATT), and behavioral intention to use (BI). This study adopted Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) to put forward an effective method. It shows the dependence of ATT on PB, PDT, PBTA, ECUE, and ICUE. The training and testing data RMSE (root mean square error) are 0.028 and 0.166 in the FNN, respectively. The training and testing data RMSE are 0.828 and 0.578 in the regression model, respectively. On the other hand, as to the dependence of ATT on BI, as presented in the FNN, the training and testing data RMSE are 0.050 and 0.109, respectively. The training and testing data RMSE are 0.529 and 0.571 in the regression model, respectively. The results show that the FNN method is better than the regression analysis. It is an effective and viable good way.

Keywords: fall, fuzzy neural network, health belief model, telecare, willingness

Procedia PDF Downloads 200
9654 Statistical Analysis with Prediction Models of User Satisfaction in Software Project Factors

Authors: Katawut Kaewbanjong

Abstract:

We analyzed a volume of data and found significant user satisfaction in software project factors. A statistical significance analysis (logistic regression) and collinearity analysis determined the significance factors from a group of 71 pre-defined factors from 191 software projects in ISBSG Release 12. The eight prediction models used for testing the prediction potential of these factors were Neural network, k-NN, Naïve Bayes, Random forest, Decision tree, Gradient boosted tree, linear regression and logistic regression prediction model. Fifteen pre-defined factors were truly significant in predicting user satisfaction, and they provided 82.71% prediction accuracy when used with a neural network prediction model. These factors were client-server, personnel changes, total defects delivered, project inactive time, industry sector, application type, development type, how methodology was acquired, development techniques, decision making process, intended market, size estimate approach, size estimate method, cost recording method, and effort estimate method. These findings may benefit software development managers considerably.

Keywords: prediction model, statistical analysis, software project, user satisfaction factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 122
9653 A Quantitative Analysis of Rural to Urban Migration in Morocco

Authors: Donald Wright

Abstract:

The ultimate goal of this study is to reinvigorate the philosophical underpinnings the study of urbanization with scientific data with the goal of circumventing what seems an inevitable future clash between rural and urban populations. To that end urban infrastructure must be sustainable economically, politically and ecologically over the course of several generations as cities continue to grow with the incorporation of climate refugees. Our research will provide data concerning the projected increase in population over the coming two decades in Morocco, and the population will shift from rural areas to urban centers during that period of time. As a result, urban infrastructure will need to be adapted, developed or built to fit the demand of future internal migrations from rural to urban centers in Morocco. This paper will also examine how past experiences of internally displaced people give insight into the challenges faced by future migrants and, beyond the gathering of data, how people react to internal migration. This study employs four different sets of research tools. First, a large part of this study is archival, which involves compiling the relevant literature on the topic and its complex history. This step also includes gathering data bout migrations in Morocco from public data sources. Once the datasets are collected, the next part of the project involves populating the attribute fields and preprocessing the data to make it understandable and usable by machine learning algorithms. In tandem with the mathematical interpretation of data and projected migrations, this study benefits from a theoretical understanding of the critical apparatus existing around urban development of the 20th and 21st centuries that give us insight into past infrastructure development and the rationale behind it. Once the data is ready to be analyzed, different machine learning algorithms will be experimented (k-clustering, support vector regression, random forest analysis) and the results compared for visualization of the data. The final computational part of this study involves analyzing the data and determining what we can learn from it. This paper helps us to understand future trends of population movements within and between regions of North Africa, which will have an impact on various sectors such as urban development, food distribution and water purification, not to mention the creation of public policy in the countries of this region. One of the strengths of this project is the multi-pronged and cross-disciplinary methodology to the research question, which enables an interchange of knowledge and experiences to facilitate innovative solutions to this complex problem. Multiple and diverse intersecting viewpoints allow an exchange of methodological models that provide fresh and informed interpretations of otherwise objective data.

Keywords: climate change, machine learning, migration, Morocco, urban development

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
9652 The Effect of Peer Pressure and Leisure Boredom on Substance Use Among Adolescents in Low-Income Communities in Capetown

Authors: Gaironeesa Hendricks, Shazly Savahl, Maria Florence

Abstract:

The aim of the study is to determine whether peer pressure and leisure boredom influence substance use among adolescents in low-income communities in Cape Town. Non-probability sampling was used to select 296 adolescents between the ages of 16–18 from schools located in two low-income communities. The measurement tools included the Drug Use Disorders Identification Test, the Resistance to Peer Influence and Leisure Boredom Scales. Multiple regression revealed that the combined influence of peer pressure and leisure boredom predicted substance use, while peer pressure emerged as a stronger predictor than leisure boredom on substance use among adolescents.

Keywords: substance use, peer pressure, leisure boredom, adolescents, multiple regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 597