Search results for: baseline drift

Authors: Mohamed A. Eid, Sobhy M. Aly

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Background: About 75% of children with spastic hemiplegic cerebral palsy walk independently, but most still show abnormal gait patterns because of contractures across the joints and muscle spasticity. Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare the effects of extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) versus functional electrical stimulation (FES) on spasticity, function, and gait parameters in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy (CP). Methods: A randomized controlled trail was conducted for 45 children with hemiplegic CP ranging in age from 6 to 9 years. They were assigned randomly using opaque envelopes into three groups. Physical Therapy (PT) group consisted of 15 children and received the conventional physical therapy program (CPTP) in addition to ankle foot orthosis (AFO). ESWT group consisted of 15 children and received the CPTP, AFO in addition to ESWT. FES group also consisted of 15 children and received the CPTP, AFO in addition to FES. All groups received the program of treatment 3 days/week for 12 weeks. Evaluation of spasticity by using the Modified Ashworth Scale (MAS), function by using the Pediatric Evaluation Disability Inventory (PEDI) and gait parameters by using the 3-D gait analysis was conducted at baseline and after 12 weeks of the treatment program. Results: Within groups, significant improvements in spasticity, function, and gait (P = 0.05) were observed in both ESWT and FES groups after treatment. While between groups, ESWT group showed significant improvements in all measured variables compared with FES and PT groups (P ˂ 0.05) after treatment. Conclusion: ESWT induced significant improvement than FES in decreasing spasticity and improving function and gait in children with hemiplegic CP. Therefore, ESWT should be included as an adjunctive therapy in the rehabilitation program of these children.

Keywords: cerebral palsy, extracorporeal shock wave therapy, functional electrical stimulation, function, gait, spasticity

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Authors: Abdullah Kaya, Muammer Koc

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A levelized cost analysis of solar energy powered seawater desalination in The Emirate of Abu Dhabi is conducted to show that clean and renewable desalination is economically viable. The Emirate heavily relies on seawater desalination for its freshwater needs due to limited freshwater resources available. This trend is expected to increase further due to growing population and economic activity, rapid decline in limited freshwater reserves, and aggravating effects of climate change. Seawater desalination in Abu Dhabi is currently done through thermal desalination technologies such as multi-stage flash (MSF) and multi-effect distillation (MED) which are coupled with thermal power plants known as co-generation. Our analysis indicates that these thermal desalination methods are inefficient regarding energy consumption and harmful to the environment due to CO₂ emissions and other dangerous byproducts. Therefore, utilization of clean and renewable desalination options has become a must for The Emirate for the transition to a sustainable future. The rapid decline in the cost of solar PV system for energy production and RO technology for desalination makes the combination of these two an ideal option for a future of sustainable desalination in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. A Levelized cost analysis for water produced by solar PV + RO system indicates that Abu Dhabi is well positioned to utilize this technological combination for cheap and clean desalination for the coming years. It has been shown that cap-ex cost of solar PV powered RO system has potential to go as low as to 101 million US $ (1111 $/m³) at best case considering the recent technological developments. The levelized cost of water (LCW) values fluctuate between 0.34 $/m³ for the baseline case and 0.27 $/m³ for the best case. Even the highly conservative case yields LCW cheaper than 100% from all thermal desalination methods currently employed in the Emirate. Exponential cost decreases in both solar PV and RO sectors along with increasing economic scale globally signal the fact that a cheap and clean desalination can be achieved by the combination of these technologies.

Keywords: solar PV, RO desalination, sustainable desalination, levelized cost of analysis, Emirate of Abu Dhabi

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Authors: Shivahari Revathi Venkateswaran

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Segmenting customers plays a significant role in churn prediction. It helps the marketing team with proactive and reactive customer retention. For the reactive retention, the retention team reaches out to customers who already showed intent to disconnect by giving some special offers. When coming to proactive retention, the marketing team uses churn prediction model, which ranks each customer from rank 1 to 100, where 1 being more risk to churn/disconnect (high ranks have high propensity to churn). The churn prediction model is built by using XGBoost model. However, with the churn rank, the marketing team can only reach out to the customers based on their individual ranks. To profile different groups of customers and to frame different marketing strategies for targeted groups of customers are not possible with the churn ranks. For this, the customers must be grouped in different segments based on their profiles, like demographics and other non-controllable attributes. This helps the marketing team to frame different offer groups for the targeted audience and prevent them from disconnecting (proactive retention). For segmentation, machine learning approaches like k-mean clustering will not form unique customer segments that have customers with same attributes. This paper finds an alternate approach to find all the combination of unique segments that can be formed from the user attributes and then finds the segments who have uplift (churn rate higher than the baseline churn rate). For this, search algorithms like fast search and recursive search are used. Further, for each segment, all customers can be targeted using individual churn ranks from the churn prediction model. Finally, a UI (User Interface) is developed for the marketing team to interactively search for the meaningful segments that are formed and target the right set of audience for future marketing campaigns and prevent them from disconnecting.

Keywords: churn prediction modeling, XGBoost model, uplift segments, proactive marketing, search algorithms, retention, k-mean clustering

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Authors: Mark Joseph Quinto, Roan Beronilla, Guiller Damian, Eliza Camaso, Ronaldo Alberto

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Forest inventories are essential to assess the composition, structure and distribution of forest vegetation that can be used as baseline information for management decisions. Classical forest inventory is labor intensive and time-consuming and sometimes even dangerous. The use of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) in forest inventory would improve and overcome these restrictions. This study was conducted to determine the possibility of using LiDAR derived data in extracting high accuracy forest biophysical parameters and as a non-destructive method for forest status analysis of San Manual, Pangasinan. Forest resources extraction was carried out using LAS tools, GIS, Envi and .bat scripts with the available LiDAR data. The process includes the generation of derivatives such as Digital Terrain Model (DTM), Canopy Height Model (CHM) and Canopy Cover Model (CCM) in .bat scripts followed by the generation of 17 composite bands to be used in the extraction of forest classification covers using ENVI 4.8 and GIS software. The Diameter in Breast Height (DBH), Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and Carbon Stock (CS) were estimated for each classified forest cover and Tree Count Extraction was carried out using GIS. Subsequently, field validation was conducted for accuracy assessment. Results showed that the forest of San Manuel has 73% Forest Cover, which is relatively much higher as compared to the 10% canopy cover requirement. On the extracted canopy height, 80% of the tree’s height ranges from 12 m to 17 m. CS of the three forest covers based on the AGB were: 20819.59 kg/20x20 m for closed broadleaf, 8609.82 kg/20x20 m for broadleaf plantation and 15545.57 kg/20x20m for open broadleaf. Average tree counts for the tree forest plantation was 413 trees/ha. As such, the forest of San Manuel has high percent forest cover and high CS.

Keywords: carbon stock, forest inventory, LiDAR, tree count

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Nejla Fourati, Zied Fessi, Fatma Dhouib, Wicem Siala, Leila Farhat, Afef Khanfir, Wafa Mnejja, Jamel Daoud

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Purpose: Radiation induced hypothyroidism in nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) ranged from 15% to 55%. In reported data, it is considered as a common late complication of definitive radiation and is mainly observed 2 years after the end of treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of early hypothyroidism within 6 months after radiotherapy. Patients and methods: From June 2017 to February 2020, 35 patients treated with concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CCR) for NPC were included in this prospective study. Median age was 49 years [23-68] with a sex ratio of 2.88. All patients received intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) at a dose of 69.96 Gy in 33 daily fractions with weekly cisplatin (40mg/m²) chemotherapy. Thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and Free Thyroxine 4 (FT4) dosage was performed before the start of radiotherapy and 6 months after. Different dosimetric parameters for the thyroid gland were reported: the volume (cc); the mean dose (Dmean) and the %age of volume receiving more than 45 Gy (V45Gy). Wilcoxon Test was used to compare these different parameters between patients with or without hypothyroidism. Results: At baseline, 5 patients (14.3%) had hypothyroidism and were excluded from the analysis. For the remaining 30 patients, 9 patients (30%) developed a hypothyroidism 6 months after the end of radiotherapy. The median thyroid volume was 10.3 cc [4.6-23]. The median Dmean and V45Gy were 48.3 Gy [43.15-55.4] and 74.8 [38.2-97.9] respectively. No significant difference was noted for all studied parameters. Conclusion: Early hypothyroidism occurring within 6 months after CCR for NPC seems to be a common complication (30%) that should be screened. Good patient monitoring with regular dosage of TSH and FT4 makes it possible to treat hypothyroidism in asymptomatic phase. This would be correlated with an improvement in the quality of life of these patients. The results of our study do not show a correlation between the thyroid doses and the occurrence of hypothyroidism. This is probably related to the high doses received by the thyroid in our series. These findings encourage more optimization to limit thyroid doses and then the risk of radiation-induced hypothyroidism

Keywords: nasopharyngeal carcinoma, hypothyroidism, early complication, thyroid dose

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Authors: Shahnaz Haque, Anand Shukla, Sunita Singh, Anil Kem

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Introduction: Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disease affecting millions worldwide. Metformin is the most commonly prescribed first line oral hypoglycemic drug for type 2 diabetes mellitus, but due to progressive worsening of blood glucose control during the natural history of type 2 diabetes, combination therapy usually becomes necessary. Objective: This study was designed to assess the treatment satisfaction between Sitagliptin versus Pioglitazone added to Metformin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: We conducted a prospective, open label, randomized, parallel group study in SIMS, Hapur, U.P. Eligible patients fulfilling inclusion criteria were randomized into two groups having 25 patients in each group using tab Sitagliptin 100mg, tab Pioglitazone 30mg added to ongoing tab Metformin (500mg) therapy for 16 weeks. The follow-up visits were on weeks 4,12 and 16. Result: 16 weeks later, addition of Sitagliptin 100mg compared to that of Pioglitazone 30 mg to ongoing Metformin therapy provided similar glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) lowering efficacy in patients with T2DM with inadequate glycemic control on metformin monotherapy. Change in HbA1c in group1 was -0.656±0.21%(p<0.0001) whereas in group2 was -0.748±0.35%(p<0.0001). Hence decrease in HbA1c from baseline was more in group2. Both treatments were well tolerated with negligible risk of hypoglycaemia. Weight loss was observed with Sitagliptin in contrast to weight gain seen in Pioglitazone. Conclusion: In this study, Sitagliptin 100 mg along with metformin therapy in comparison to pioglitazone 30 mg plus metformin therapy was both effective, well-tolerated and improved glycemic control in both the groups. Addition of pioglitazone had cause oedema and weight gain to the patients whereas sitagliptin caused weight loss in its patients.

Keywords: sitagliptin, pioglitazone, metformin, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: I. Boroňová, J. Bernasovská, J. Kmec, E. Petrejčíková

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Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a primary myocardial disease, it is characterized by progressive systolic dysfunction due to cardiac chamber dilatation and inefficient myocardial contractility with estimated prevalence of 37 in 100 000 people. It is the most frequent cause of heart failure and cardiac transplantation in young adults. About one-third of all patients have a suspected familial disease indicating a genetic basis of DCM. Many candidate gene studies in humans have tested the association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in various genes coding for proteins with a known cardiovascular function. In our study we present the results of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism genotyping in relation to dilated cardiomyopathy in Slovak population. The study included 78 individuals, 39 patients with DCM and 39 healthy control persons. The mean age of patients with DCM was 50.7±11.5 years; the mean age of individuals in control group was 51.3±9.8 years. Risk factors detected at baseline in each group included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, diabetes and blood pressure. Genomic DNA was extracted from leukocytes by a standard methodology and screened for rs10927875 polymorphism in intron of ZBTB17 gene using Real-time PCR method (Step One Applied Biosystems). The distribution of investigated genotypes for rs10927875 polymorphism in the group of patients with DCM was as follows: CC (89.74%), CT (10.26%), TT (0%), and the distribution in the control group: CC (92.31%), CT (5.13%), and TT (2.56%). Using the chi-square (χ2) test we compared genotype and allele frequencies between patients and controls. There was no difference in genotype or allele frequencies in ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism between patients and control group (χ2=3.028, p=0.220; χ2=0.264, p=0.608). Our results represent an initial study, it can be considered as preliminary and first of its kind in Slovak population. Further studies of ZBTB17 gene polymorphisms of more numerous files and additional functional investigations are needed to fully understand the role of genetic associations.

Keywords: dilated cardiomyopathy, SNP polymorphism, ZBTB17 gene, bioscience

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Authors: Akshay Patil

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Objective: Mediation analysis identifies causal pathways by testing the relationships between the NCR, the OS, and an intermediate variable that mediates the relationship between the Nimotuzumab-cisplatin-radiation (NCR) and OS. Introduction: In randomized controlled trials, the primary interest is in the mechanisms by which an intervention exerts its effects on the outcomes. Clinicians are often interested in how the intervention works (or why it does not work) through hypothesized causal mechanisms. In this work, we highlight the value of understanding causal mechanisms in randomized trial by applying causal mediation analysis in a randomized trial in oncology. Methods: Data was obtained from a phase III randomized trial (Subgroup of HPVNOCP). NCR is reported to significantly improve the OS of patients locally advanced head and neck cancer patients undergoing definitive chemoradiation. Here, based on trial data, the mediating effect of NCR on patient overall survival was systematically quantified through progression-free survival(PFS), disease free survival (DFS), Loco-regional failure (LRF), and the disease control rate (DCR), Overall response rate (ORR). Effects of potential mediators on the HR for OS with NCR versus cisplatin-radiation (CR) were analyzed by Cox regression models. Statistical analyses were performed using R software Version 3.6.3 (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing) Results: Effects of potential mediator PFS was an association between NCR treatment and OS, with an indirect-effect (IE) 0.76(0.62 – 0.95), which mediated 60.69% of the treatment effect. Taking into account baseline confounders, the overall adjusted hazard ratio of death was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.43 – 0.96; P=0.03). The DFS was also a significant mediator and had an IE 0.77 (95% CI; 0.62-0.93), 58% mediated). Smaller mediation effects (maximum 27%) were observed for LRF with IE 0.88(0.74 – 1.06). Both DCR and ORR mediated 10% and 15%, respectively, of the effect of NCR vs. CR on the OS with IE 0.65 (95% CI; 0.81 – 1.08) and 0.94(95% CI; 0.79 – 1.04). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that PFS and DFS were the most important mediators of the OS with nimotuzumab to weekly cisplatin-radiation in HPVNOCP.

Keywords: mediation analysis, cancer data, survival, NCR, HPV negative oropharyngeal

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Authors: Isabelle Snyder

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Microgrid protection presents challenges to conventional protection techniques due to the low induced fault current. Protection relays present in microgrid applications require a combination of settings groups to adjust based on the architecture of the microgrid in islanded and grid-connected mode. In a radial system where the microgrid is at the other end of the feeder, directional elements can be used to identify the direction of the fault current and switch settings groups accordingly (grid connected or microgrid connected). However, with multiple microgrid connections, this concept becomes more challenging, and the direction of the current alone is not sufficient to identify the source of the fault current contribution. ORNL has previously developed adaptive relaying schemes through other DOE-funded research projects that will be evaluated and used as a baseline for this research. The four protection techniques in this study are the following: (1) Adaptive Current only Protection System (ACPS), Intentional (2) Unbalanced Control for Protection Control (IUCPC), (3) Adaptive Protection System with Communication Controller (APSCC) (4) Adaptive Model-Driven Protective Relay (AMDPR). The first two methods focus on identifying the islanded mode without communication by monitoring the current sequence component generated by the system (ACPS) or induced with inverter control during islanded mode (IUCPC) to identify the islanding condition without communication at the relay to adjust the settings. These two methods are used as a backup to the APSCC, which relies on a communication network to communicate the islanded configuration to the system components. The fourth method relies on a short circuit model inside the relay that is used in conjunction with communication to adjust the system configuration and computes the fault current and adjusts the settings accordingly.

Keywords: adaptive relaying, microgrid protection, sequence components, islanding detection, communication controlled protection, integrated short circuit model

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Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, Tsz W. Tsang

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Many Hong Kong people nowadays spend most of their lifetime working indoor. Since poor Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) potentially leads to discomfort, ill health, low productivity and even absenteeism in workplaces, a call for establishing statutory IAQ control to safeguard the well-being of residents is urgently required. Although policies, strategies, and guidelines for workplace IAQ diagnosis have been developed elsewhere and followed with remedial works, some of those workplaces or buildings have relatively late stage of the IAQ problems when the investigation or remedial work started. Screening for IAQ problems should be initiated as it will provide information as a minimum provision of IAQ baseline requisite to the resolution of the problems. It is not practical to sample all air pollutants that exit. Nevertheless, as a statutory control, reliable, rapid screening is essential in accordance with a compromise strategy, which balances costs against detection of key pollutants. This study investigates the feasibility of using an IAQ index as a parameter of IAQ control in Hong Kong. The index is a screening parameter to identify the unsatisfactory workplace IAQ and will highlight where a fully effective IAQ monitoring and assessment is needed for an intensive diagnosis. There already exist a number of representative common indoor pollutants based on some extensive IAQ assessments. The selection of pollutants is surrogate to IAQ control consists of dilution, mitigation, and emission control. The IAQ Index and assessment will look at high fractional quantities of these common measurement parameters. With the support of the existing comprehensive regional IAQ database and the IAQ Index by the research team as the pre-assessment probability, and the unsatisfactory IAQ prevalence as the post-assessment probability from this study, thresholds of maintaining the current measures and performing a further IAQ test or IAQ remedial measures will be proposed. With justified resources, the proposed IAQ Index and assessment protocol might be a useful tool for setting up a practical public IAQ surveillance programme and policy in Hong Kong.

Keywords: assessment, index, indoor air quality, surveillance programme

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Authors: A. M. Taleb, A. G. Tail, A. F. Kara, B. B. Djedouani, C. T. Moussa

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Forensic entomology is the use of insects to aid legal investigations. The main purpose of forensic entomology is to establish the postmortem interval (PMI). In order to estimate the PMI, a forensic entomologist compares the case data with certain reference information relevant to the particular location and time of year. This reference information, including the local distribution of species, are not available in Algeria. Therefore, experiments need to be conducted to provide references for entomological evidence. The objective of this study was to identify the necrophagous flies species which arrive first to carrion using liver baits in Ghardaia, South Algeria. The study was carried out during the spring season in the palmeral of Beni Isguen, Ghardaia which is well known by its hot arid climate. The experiment site (32°28’0’’ N, 3°42’0’’ E), is situated at an altitude of about 526 metres above mean sea level. On April the 4th, 2014, a number of three replicates of liver baited traps were placed in the shade and other three baits were exposed to the sun. Flying insects and larvae were captured and identified. After few minutes, flies invaded the traps which were exposed to the sun. In contrast, no flies were observed in the other traps. A total number of fourty five (45) adult specimens belonging to three taxa were identified: Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy, 1830) (Diptera, Calliphoridae) (51.11 %), Lucilia sericata (Meigen, 1826) (Diptera, Calliphoridae) (33.33 %) and Sarcophaga africa (Wiedemann, 1824) (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) (15.55 %). Six hundred and three (603) maggots belonging to two taxa were identified: Calliphora vicina (76.28 %) and Lucilia sericata (23.71 %). The data obtained from this study provides baseline information regarding the carrion fauna of this area. It will also form a basis for similar studies in different geographical and climatological regions of Algeria.

Keywords: forensic entomology, liver baits, necrophagous fly, Ghardaia, South Algeria

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Authors: Lubomir Vecera, Tomas Gabrhelik, Benjamin Tolmaci, Josef Srovnal, Emil Berta, Petr Prasil, Petr Stourac

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Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide and colon cancer is the second most common type of cancer. Currently, there are only a few studies evaluating the effect of postoperative analgesia on the prognosis of patients undergoing radical colon cancer surgery. Postoperative analgesia in patients undergoing colon cancer surgery is usually managed in two ways, either with strong opioids (morphine, piritramide) or epidural analgesia. In our prospective study, we evaluated the effect of postoperative analgesia on the presence of circulating tumor cells or minimal residual disease after colon cancer surgery. A total of 60 patients who underwent radical colon cancer surgery were enrolled in this prospective, randomized, two-center study. Patients were randomized into three groups, namely piritramide, morphine and postoperative epidural analgesia. We evaluated the presence of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and cytokeratin 20 (CK-20) mRNA positive circulating tumor cells in peripheral blood before surgery, immediately after surgery, on postoperative day two and one month after surgery. The presence of circulating tumor cells was assessed by quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). In the priritramide postoperative analgesia group, the presence of CEA mRNA positive cells was significantly lower on a postoperative day two compared to the other groups (p=0.04). The value of CK-20 mRNA positive cells was the same in all groups on all days. In all groups, both types of circulating tumor cells returned to normal levels one month after surgery. Demographic and baseline clinical characteristics were similar in all groups. Compared with morphine and epidural analgesia, piritramide significantly reduces the amount of CEA mRNA positive circulating tumor cells after radical colon cancer surgery.

Keywords: cancer progression, colon cancer, minimal residual disease, perioperative analgesia.

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Authors: Sofia Serra-Dawa

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Adult relationships accrue on a variety of past social experiences, intentions, and emotions that might predispose and influence the approach to and construction of subsequent relationships. The Adult Attachment Theory (AAT) proposes four types of adult attachment, where attachment is built over two dimensions of anxiety and avoidance: secure, anxious-preoccupied, dismissive-avoidant, and fearful-avoidant. The AAT has been studied in multiple settings such as personal and therapeutic relationships, educational settings, sexual orientation, health, and religion. In music scholarship, the AAT has been used to frame class learning of student singers and study the relational behavior between voice teachers and students. Building on this study, the present inquiry studies how attachment types might characterize learning relationships of music students (in the Western Conservatory tradition), and whether particular instrumental experiences might correlate to given attachment styles. Given certain behavioral cohesive features of established traditions of instrumental playing and performance modes, it is hypothesized that student musicians will display specific characteristics correlated to instrumental traditions, demonstrating clear tendency of attachment style, which in turn has implications on subsequent professional interactions. This study is informed by the methodological framework of Adult Attachment Scale-R (Collins and Read, 1990), which was particularly chosen given its non-invasive questions and classificatory validation. It is further hypothesized that the analytical comparison of musicians’ profiles has the potential to serve as the baseline for other comparative behavioral observation studies [this component is expected to be verified and completed well before the conference meeting]. This research may have implications for practitioners concerned with matching and improving musical teaching and learning relationships and in (professional and amateur) long-term musical settings.

Keywords: adult attachment, music education, musicians attachment profile, musicians relationships

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Authors: Dagim Dessalegn Haile

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This study investigated the interaction between the drivers' socio-demographic background information (age, gender, and driving experience) and the risky events score in the i-DREAMS platform. Further, the relationship between the participants' background driving behavior and the i-DREAMS platform behavioral output scores of risky events was also investigated. The i-DREAMS acronym stands for Smart Driver and Road Environment Assessment and Monitoring System. It is a European Union Horizon 2020 funded project consisting of 13 partners, researchers, and industry partners from 8 countries. A total of 25 Belgian car drivers (16 male and nine female) were considered for analysis. Drivers' ages were categorized into ages 18-25, 26-45, 46-65, and 65 and older. Drivers' driving experience was also categorized into four groups: 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 years. Drivers are classified into two clusters based on the recorded score for risky events during phase 1 (baseline) using risky events; acceleration, deceleration, speeding, tailgating, overtaking, and lane discipline. Agglomerative hierarchical clustering using SPSS shows Cluster 1 drivers are safer drivers, and Cluster 2 drivers are identified as risky drivers. The analysis result indicated no significant relationship between age groups, gender, and experience groups except for risky events like acceleration, tailgating, and overtaking in a few phases. This is mainly because the fewer participants create less variability of socio-demographic background groups. Repeated measure ANOVA shows that cluster 2 drivers improved more than cluster 1 drivers for tailgating, lane discipline, and speeding events. A positive relationship between background drivers' behavior and i-DREAMS platform behavioral output scores is observed. It implies that car drivers who in the questionnaire data indicate committing more risky driving behavior demonstrate more risky driver behavior in the i-DREAMS observed driving data.

Keywords: i-dreams, car drivers, socio-demographic background, risky events

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Authors: Gabriela Ilie, Robert D. H. Rutledge

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A review of the literature reveals a need for longitudinal studies to properly understand the quality of life of prostate cancer survivors during their prostate cancer journey in order to identify opportunities for patient support and care during prostate cancer survivorship. In this study, mental health and relationship satisfaction were assessed longitudinally and by treatment modality among a population-based sample of Canadian adult men with a history of prostate cancer diagnosis. A total of 98 men, aged 51 or older with a history of prostate cancer completed an on-line 15-minute survey between May 2017 and February 2018, assessing mental health (Kessler Psychological Distress Scale) and relationship satisfaction (Dyadic Adjustment Scale) at baseline and at three months post-treatment with either active or nonactive prostate cancer treatment. Almost 1 in 6 men in this sample screened positive for mental health issues (17.34%, n=17) irrespective of treatment modality and most (n=11) were not currently on medication for depression, anxiety or both. Mental health outcomes were poorer for men with multimorbidity. For every instance of screening positive for mental health issues, 2.021 (95% CI:1.1 to 3.8) times more comorbidities were recorded. Relationship satisfaction and dyadic cohesion were statistically significantly lower from first assessment to 3 months for men who underwent multiple treatment modalities (surgery and radiation with hormonal therapy). Relationship satisfaction was also lower at 3 months for men who underwent radiation therapy. Almost 1 in 2 men in this sample (74%) indicated they did not attend a prostate cancer support group. Results suggest that treatment for mental health is underutilized in men with prostate cancer. Men who undergo multiple forms of active treatment appear more vulnerable to relationship dissatisfaction and feeling disconnected from their partner. Data points to important opportunities for patient education and care support during survivorship.

Keywords: prostate cancer survivorship, mental health, quality of life, relationship satisfaction

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Authors: Zahra Bahadoran, Parvin Mirmiran, Hanieh-Sadat Ejtahed, Maryam Tohidi, Fereidoun Azizi

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Background and Aim: Broccoli sprouts, rich source of bioactive compounds specially sulforaphane (SFN), have unique functional properties. This study was conducted to investigate the possible treatment effects of high-SFN broccoli sprouts powder on metabolic and liver disorders in rats fed with high-fructose corn syrup. Methods: Thirty-two male wistar rats, pretreated with an eight-week high-fructose diet (water containing 30% fructose), were randomly allocated into three groups: Baseline control (BC), control (C) (normal diet), and BSP-diet (normal diet+5% BSP). The duration of the study was 6 weeks. Biochemical measurements, liver weight and triglyceride content were evaluated and histopathological examination of liver was performed. Results: After 6-weeks, the liver weight was significantly lower in BSP group compared to controls (13.4 g vs. 11.4 g, P<0.05). After 6 weeks, a significant decrease was observed in fasting serum glucose, total cholesterol and triglyceride levels in both experimental groups (P<0.05). Compared to controls, serum levels of HDL-C were significantly higher in BSP group. The liver TG content in BSP compared to control group was lower (14.6 vs. 16.4 mg/mg tissue). The hepatic levels of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase and γ-glutamyl transferase had not considerable changes in the groups after the intervention period but the level of alkaline phosphatase significantly decreased in BSP group (P<0.05). The histopathological examination of liver confirmed a decrease lobular and portal inflammation and ballooning in BSP group compared to control. Conclusion: High-SFN broccoli sprouts powder has beneficials effect on metabolic and liver changes-induced by high fructose corn syrup.

Keywords: broccoli sprouts, metabolic disorders, fatty liver, food science

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Authors: Eda Arat Maden, Ceyhan Altun, Bilal Ozmen, Feridun Basak

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Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the antimicrobial effect of toothpastes containing fluoride, xylitol or xylitol-probiotic in vivo, Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacillus in 13-15 years old children. Method: The study consisted of 60 pediatric patients were randomly divided into 3 groups of 20 each. Group 1 received fluoride toothpaste (Colgate Max Fresh), group 2 used xylitol toothpaste (Xyliwhite) and group 3 used xylitol-probiotic toothpaste (PerioBiotic). Subjects were asked to use the allocated dentifrice two times a day, for 6 weeks. We performed tests on the samples of saliva in the beginning of the study and after 6 weeks’ duration following the use of toothpaste. Result and Conclusion: All of the participants of the study stated that they brushed their teeth well twice a day by using the toothpastes given to them for 6 weeks. Majority of the subjects had high counts of salivary mutans streptococci and Lactobacillus at baseline. When the number of cariogenic bacteria (S. mutans and Lactobacillus) at the start of the PerioBiotic Probiotic toothpaste usage are compared with the results measured after 6 weeks, an important decrease is observed in the S. mutans and Lactobacillus bacteria according to the CRT Tests. After the 6-week use of Probiotic toothpaste, the S. mutans (≥105) decreased to 20% from 75% in the group with S. mutans and Lactobacillus (≥105) decreased to 30% from 60% in the group with Lactobacillus. In addition, an important decrease was recorded in the participants with the S. mutans percentage (80% - 45%) and Lactobacillus (70% - 55%) after using the Colgate Max Fresh toothpaste for six weeks. On the other hand, it was determined with the Chi-square that there were not important changes between the Xyliwhite toothpaste group and the other groups with S. mutans (80% - 75%) and Lactobacillus (75% -65%). It was also determined after the comparison of the groups that the decrease in the S. mutans was higher than the group using PerioBiotic Probiotic toothpaste at a significant level, when compared with the Colgate Max Fresh toothpaste and Xyliwhite toothpaste. S. mutans were more sensitive to the antimicrobial activity of the PerioBiotic Probiotic toothpaste and to the Colgate Max Fresh toothpaste when compared with the Lactobacillus. In the light of the data obtained in this in vivo study, the use of probiotics ensure the balance between the bacterial flora in the oral cavity.

Keywords: lactobacillus, probiotic, Streptococcus mutans, toothpaste

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Authors: Hoda Manafian, Stephen Holland

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Silver Springs are one of Florida's first tourist attractions. They are one of the largest artesian spring formations in the world, producing nearly 550 million gallons of crystal-clear water daily that is one of the most popular sites for water-based leisure activities. As part of managing the use of a state park, the state is interested in establishing a baseline count of number of boating users to compare this to the quality of the natural resources and environment in the park. Understanding the status of the environmental resources and also the human recreational experience is the main objective of the project. Two main goals of current study are 1) to identify the distribution of different types of watercrafts (kayak, canoe, motor boat, Jet Ski, paddleboard and pontoon). 2) To document the level of real crowdedness in the river during different seasons, months, and hours of each day based on the reliable information gained from camera versus self-reported method by tourists themselves in the past studies (the innovative achievement of this study). In line with these objectives, on-site surveys and also boat counting using a time-lapse camera at the Riverside launch was done during 12 months of 2015. 700 on-site surveys were conducted at three watercraft boat ramp sites (Rays Wayside, Riverside launch area, Ft. King Waterway) of recreational users. We used Virtualdub and ImageJ software for counting boats for meeting the first and second goals, since this two software can report even the hour of presence of watercraft in the water in addition to the number of users and the type of watercraft. The most crowded hours were between 9-11AM from February to May and kayak was the most popular watercraft. The findings of this research can make a good foundation for better management in this state park in future.

Keywords: eco-tourism, Florida state, visitors' perception, water-based recreation

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Authors: E. Farg, M. M. El-Sharkawy, M. S. Mostafa, S. M. Arafat

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Mapping water stress provides important baseline data for sustainable agriculture. Recent developments in the new Sentinel-1 data which allow the acquisition of high resolution images and varied polarization capabilities. This study was conducted to detect and quantify vegetation water content from canopy backscatter for extracting spatial information to encourage drought mapping activities throughout new reclaimed sandy soils in western Nile delta, Egypt. The performance of radar imagery in agriculture strongly depends on the sensor polarization capability. The dual mode capabilities of Sentinel-1 improve the ability to detect water stress and the backscatter from the structure components improves the identification and separation of vegetation types with various canopy structures from other features. The fieldwork data allowed identifying of water stress zones based on land cover structure; those classes were used for producing harmonious water stress map. The used analysis techniques and results show high capability of active sensors data in water stress mapping and monitoring especially when integrated with multi-spectral medium resolution images. Also sub soil drip irrigation systems cropped areas have lower drought and water stress than center pivot sprinkler irrigation systems. That refers to high level of evaporation from soil surface in initial growth stages. Results show that high relationship between vegetation indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI the observed radar backscattering. In addition to observational evidence showed that the radar backscatter is highly sensitive to vegetation water stress, and essentially potential to monitor and detect vegetative cover drought.

Keywords: canopy backscatter, drought, polarization, NDVI

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Authors: Julius Steinkopf, Eric Rost, Aike Hessel, Sonia Lippke

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Objective: This study examined possible determinants of return to work (RTW) in individuals who participated in a medical rehabilitation program longitudinally over a time period of six months. Design/methodology/approach: N=1,044 rehabilitants were included in the baseline measurement in terms of completing a questionnaire during their medical rehabilitation. About 30% (n=350) have remained in the study in terms of participating in computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) six months later. Frequency analyses and Regression analyses were run. Findings: About 70% of the rehabilitants returned to work six months after rehabilitation. Regression analyses revealed that the RTW rates were significantly predicted by gender (OR=0.12, men were more likely to return), perceived social support (OR=3.01) and current physical functioning (OR=1.25). Furthermore RTW motives, like expected monetary rewards (OR=25.2) and feelings of being needed (OR=0.18) same as motives for not returning to work (nRTW), like the wish to stop working in order to spend time with the spouse (OR=0.13) or a lack of enjoyment of work (OR=3.81), significantly predicted return to work rates. Life satisfaction, self-efficacy beliefs, mental health, current income, educational background or age did not significantly increase explained variance (all ps > .05). Practical implications: Taking theses predictors into account provides options to increase the effectiveness of interventions aiming at increasing RTW: Medical rehabilitations should not only aim at improving the physical functioning but also to enhance beneficial motives and social support as well as support women specifically in order to improve the effectiveness of medical rehabilitation and public health interventions. Originality/value: Illness-caused work absences are related to high financial costs and individual burden. Despite of the public health and societal implications, this is one of the very few studies investigating systematically fitness and health for the return to work.

Keywords: gender, fitness, health, physical functioning

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Authors: Akaash Tawade, Manan Khattar, Lucas Spangher, Costas J. Spanos

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Many grids are increasing the share of renewable energy in their generation mix, which is causing the energy generation to become less controllable. Buildings, which consume nearly 33% of all energy, are a key target for demand response: i.e., mechanisms for demand to meet supply. Understanding the behavior of office workers is a start towards developing demand response for one sector of building technology. The literature notes that dynamic computational modeling can be predictive of individual action, especially given that occupant behavior is traditionally abstracted from demand forecasting. Recent work founded on Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) has provided a promising conceptual basis for modeling behavior, personal states, and environment using control theoretic principles. Here, an adapted linear dynamical system of latent states and exogenous inputs is proposed to simulate energy demand amongst office workers engaged in a social energy shifting game. The energy shifting competition is implemented in an office in Singapore that is connected to a minigrid of buildings with a consistent 'price signal.' This signal is translated into a 'points signal' by a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to influence participant energy use. The dynamic model functions at the intersection of the points signals, baseline energy consumption trends, and SCT behavioral inputs to simulate future outcomes. This study endeavors to analyze how the dynamic model trains an RL agent and, subsequently, the degree of accuracy to which load deferability can be simulated. The results offer a generalizable behavioral model for energy competitions that provides the framework for further research on transfer learning for RL, and more broadly— transactive control.

Keywords: energy demand forecasting, social cognitive behavioral modeling, social game, transfer learning

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Authors: Ali Kadivar, Kaveh Niayesh

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The integration of green energy resources is a major focus, and the role of Medium Voltage Direct Current (MVDC) systems is exponentially expanding. However, the protection of MVDC systems against DC faults is a challenge that can have consequences on reliable and safe grid operation. This challenge reveals the need for MVDC circuit breakers (MVDC CB), which are in infancies of their improvement. Therefore will be a lack of MVDC CBs standards, including thresholds for acceptable power losses and operation speed. To establish a baseline for comparison purposes, a benchmark system for testing future MVDC CBs is vital. The literatures just give the timing sequence of each switch and the emphasis is on the topology, without in-depth study on the control algorithm of DCCB, as the circuit breaker control system is not yet systematic. A digital testing benchmark is designed for the Proof-of-concept of simulation studies using software models. It can validate studies based on real-time digital simulators and Transient Network Analyzer (TNA) models. The proposed experimental setup utilizes data accusation from the accurate sensors installed on the tested MVDC CB and through general purpose input/outputs (GPIO) from the microcontroller and PC Prototype studies in the laboratory-based models utilizing Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) equipment connected to real-time digital simulators is achieved. The improved control algorithm of the circuit breaker can reduce the peak fault current and avoid arc resignation, helping the coordination of DCCB in relay protection. Moreover, several research gaps are identified regarding case studies and evaluation approaches.

Keywords: DC circuit breaker, hardware-in-the-loop, real time digital simulation, testing benchmark

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Authors: Jiajia Peng, Jianqing Qiu, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

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Background: Insufficient sleep has been focused on as a public health epidemic. However, a comprehensive analysis of disease trajectory associated with unhealthy sleep habits is still unclear currently. Objective: This study sought to comprehensively clarify the disease's trajectory in relation to the overall poor sleep pattern and unhealthy sleep behaviors separately. Methods: 410,682 participants with available information on sleep behaviors were collected from the UK Biobank at the baseline visit (2006-2010). These participants were classified as having high- and low risk of each sleep behavior and were followed from 2006 to 2020 to identify the increased risks of diseases. We used Cox regression to estimate the associations of high-risk sleep behaviors with the elevated risks of diseases, and further established diseases trajectory using significant diseases. The low-risk unhealthy sleep behaviors were defined as the reference. Thereafter, we also examined the trajectory of diseases linked with the overall poor sleep pattern by combining all of these unhealthy sleep behaviors. To visualize the disease's trajectory, network analysis was used for presenting these trajectories. Results: During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, we noted 12 medical conditions in relation to unhealthy sleep behaviors and the overall poor sleep pattern among 410,682 participants with a median age of 58.0 years. The majority of participants had unhealthy sleep behaviors; in particular, 75.62% with frequent sleeplessness, and 72.12% had abnormal sleep durations. Besides, a total of 16,032 individuals with an overall poor sleep pattern were identified. In general, three major disease clusters were associated with overall poor sleep status and unhealthy sleep behaviors according to the disease trajectory and network analysis, mainly in the digestive, musculoskeletal and connective tissue, and cardiometabolic systems. Of note, two circularity disease pairs (I25→I20 and I48→I50) showed the highest risks following these unhealthy sleep habits. Additionally, significant differences in disease trajectories were observed in relation to sex and sleep medication among individuals with poor sleep status. Conclusions: We identified the major disease clusters and high-risk diseases following participants with overall poor sleep health and unhealthy sleep behaviors, respectively. It may suggest the need to investigate the potential interventions targeting these key pathways.

Keywords: sleep, poor sleep, unhealthy sleep behaviors, disease trajectory, UK Biobank

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Authors: Thomas S. Abia II, Citlali Garcia-Saucedo

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A continuous copper precipitation treatment (CCPT) system was conceived at Intel Chandler Site to serve as a first-of-kind (FOK) facility-scale waste copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and manganese (Mn) co-precipitation facility. The process was designed to treat highly variable wastewater discharged from a substrate packaging research factory. The paper discusses metals co-precipitation induced by internal changes for manufacturing facilities that lack the capacity for hardware expansion due to real estate restrictions, aggressive schedules, or budgetary constraints. Herein, operating parameters such as pH and oxidation reduction potential (ORP) were examined to analyze the ability of the CCPT System to immobilize various waste metals. Additionally, influential factors such as influent concentrations and retention times were investigated to quantify the environmental variability against system performance. A total of 2,027 samples were analyzed and statistically evaluated to measure the performance of CCPT that was internally retrofitted for Mn abatement to meet environmental regulations. In order to enhance the consistency of the influent, a separate holding tank was cannibalized from another system to collect and slow-feed the segregated Mn wastewater from the factory into CCPT. As a result, the baseline influent Mn decreased from 17.2+18.7 mg¹L^-1 at pre-pilot to 5.15+8.11 mg¹L^-1 post-pilot (70.1% reduction). Likewise, the pre-trial and post-trial average influent Cu values to CCPT were 52.0+54.6 mg¹L^-1 and 33.9+12.7 mg¹L^-1, respectively (34.8% reduction). However, the raw Ni content of 0.97+0.39 mg¹L^-1 at pre-pilot increased to 1.06+0.17 mg¹L^-1 at post-pilot. The average Mn output declined from 10.9+11.7 mg¹L^-1 at pre-pilot to 0.44+1.33 mg¹L^-1 at post-pilot (96.0% reduction) as a result of the pH and ORP operating setpoint changes. In similar fashion, the output Cu quality improved from 1.60+5.38 mg¹L^-1 to 0.55+1.02 mg¹L^-1 (65.6% reduction) while the Ni output sustained a 50% enhancement during the pilot study (0.22+0.19 mg¹L^-1 reduced to 0.11+0.06 mg¹L^-1). pH and ORP were shown to be significantly instrumental to the precipitative versatility of the CCPT System.

Keywords: copper, co-precipitation, industrial wastewater treatment, manganese, optimization, pilot study

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Authors: A. Kumar, D. Himanshu, Ak Vaish, K. Usman , A. Singh, R. Misra, V. Atam, S. P. Verma, S. Singhal

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Introduction: Resistant and uncontrolled hypertension offer great challenge, in terms of higher risk of morbidity, mortality and not the least, difficulty in diagnosis and management. Our study tries to identify the importance of two crucial aspects of hypertension management, i.e. drug compliance and optimum dosing and also the effect of spironolactone on blood pressure in cases of resistant hypertension. Methodology: A prospective study was carried out among patients, who were referred as case of resistant hypertension to Hypertension Clinic at Gandhi memorial and associated hospital, Lucknow, India from August, 2013 to July 2014. A total of 122 Subjects having uncontrolled BP with ≥3 antihypertensives were selected. After ruling out secondary resistance and with appropriate lifestyle modifications, effect of adherence and optimum doses was seen with monitoring of BP. Only those having blood pressure still uncontrolled were true resistant. These patients were given spironolactone to see its effect on BP over next 12 weeks. Results: Mean baseline BP of all (n=122) patients was 150.4±7.2 mmHg systolic and 92.1±5.7 mmHg diastolic. After promoting adherence to the regimen, there was reduction of 4.20±3.65 mmHg systolic and 2.08±4.74 mmHg Diastolic blood pressure, with 26 patients achieving target blood pressure goal. Further reduction of 6.66±5.99 mmHg in systolic and 2.59±3.67 mmHg in diastolic BP was observed after optimizing the drug doses with another 66 patients achieving target blood pressure goal. Only 30 patients were true resistant hypertensive and prescribed spironolactone. Over 12 weeks, mean reduction of 20.62±3.65 mmHg in systolic and 10.08 ± 6.46 mmHg in diastolic BP was observed. Out of these 30, BP was controlled in 24 patients. Side effects observed were hyperkalemia in 2 patients and breast tenderness in 2 patients. Conclusion: Improper adherence and suboptimal regimen appear to be the important reasons for uncontrolled hypertension. By virtue of maintaining proper adherence to an optimum regimen, target BP goal can be reached in many without adding much to the regimen. Spironolactone is effective in patients with resistant hypertension, in terms of blood pressure reduction with minimal side effects.

Keywords: resistant, hypertension, spironolactone, blood pressure

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Authors: Pei-Chen Wu

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Both preexisting cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of personality-depression relationship have suffered from one main limitation: they ignored the stability of the construct of interest (e.g., personality and depression) can be expected to influence the estimate of the association between personality and depression. To address this limitation, the Trait-State-Occasion (TSO) modeling was adopted to analyze the sources of variance of the focused constructs. A TSO modeling was operated by partitioning a state variance into time-invariant (trait) and time-variant (occasion) components. Within a TSO framework, it is possible to predict change on the part of construct that really changes (i.e., time-variant variance), when controlling the trait variances. 750 high school students were followed for 4 waves over six-month intervals. The baseline data (T1) were collected from the senior high schools (aged 14 to 15 years). Participants were given Beck Depression Inventory and Big Five Inventory at each assessment. TSO modeling revealed that 70~78% of the variance in personality (five constructs) was stable over follow-up period; however, 57~61% of the variance in depression was stable. For personality construct, there were 7.6% to 8.4% of the total variance from the autoregressive occasion factors; for depression construct there were 15.2% to 18.1% of the total variance from the autoregressive occasion factors. Additionally, results showed that when controlling initial symptom severity, the time-invariant components of all five dimensions of personality were predictive of change in depression (Extraversion: B= .32, Openness: B = -.21, Agreeableness: B = -.27, Conscientious: B = -.36, Neuroticism: B = .39). Because five dimensions of personality shared some variance, the models in which all five dimensions of personality were simultaneous to predict change in depression were investigated. The time-invariant components of five dimensions were still significant predictors for change in depression (Extraversion: B = .30, Openness: B = -.24, Agreeableness: B = -.28, Conscientious: B = -.35, Neuroticism: B = .42). In sum, the majority of the variability of personality was stable over 2 years. Individuals with the greater tendency of Extraversion and Neuroticism have higher degrees of depression; individuals with the greater tendency of Openness, Agreeableness and Conscientious have lower degrees of depression.

Keywords: assessment, depression, personality, trait-state-occasion model

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Authors: Kunal K. S., Shwetashri K. R., Keerthan G., Ajinkya R.

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Background: Normal pressure hydrocephalus is a condition caused by abnormal accumulation of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) within the brain resulting in enlarged cerebral ventricles due to a disruption of CSF formation, absorption, or flow. Over the course of time, ventriculoperitoneal shunt under general anesthesia has become a standard of care. Yet only a finite number of centers have started the inclusion of regional anesthesia techniques for the such patient cohort. Stem Case: We report a case of a 75-year-old male with underlying aortic sclerosis and cardiomyopathy who presented with complaints of confusion, forgetfulness, and difficulty in walking. Neuro-imaging studies revealed disproportionally enlarged subarachnoid space hydrocephalus (DESH). The baseline blood pressure was 116/67 mmHg with a heart rate of 106 beats/min and SpO2 of 96% on room air. The patient underwent smooth induction followed by sonographically guided superficial cervical plexus block and transverse abdominis plane block. Intraoperative pain indices were monitored with Analgesia nociceptive index monitor (ANI, MdolorisTM) and surgical plethysmographic index (SPI, GE Healthcare, Helsinki, FinlandTM). These remained stable during the application of the block and the entire surgical duration. No significant hemodynamic response was observed during the tunneling of the skin by the surgeon. The patient underwent a smooth recovery and emergence. Conclusion: Our decision to incorporate peripheral nerve blockade in conjunction with general anesthesia resulted in opioid-sparing anesthesia and decreased post-operative analgesic requirement by the patient. This blockade was successful in suppressing intraoperative stress responses. Our patient recovered adequately and underwent an uncomplicated post-operative stay.

Keywords: desh, NPH, VP shunt, cervical plexus block, transversus abdominis plane block

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Authors: Robin Molinier

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Industrial symbiosis (I.S) rely on two modes of cooperation that are infrastructure sharing and resource substitution to obtain economic and environmental benefits. The former consists in the intensification of use of an asset while the latter is based on the use of waste, fatal energy (and utilities) as alternatives to standard inputs. Both modes, in fact, rely on the shift from a business-as-usual functioning towards an alternative production system structure so that in a business point of view the distinction is not clear. In order to investigate the way those cooperation modes can be distinguished, we consider the stakeholders' interplay in the business model structure regarding their resources and requirements. For infrastructure sharing (following economic engineering literature) the cost function of capacity induces economies of scale so that demand pooling reduces global expanses. Grassroot investment sizing decision and the ex-post pricing strongly depends on the design optimization phase for capacity sizing whereas ex-post operational cost sharing minimizing budgets are less dependent upon production rates. Value is then mainly design driven. For resource substitution, synergies value stems from availability and is at risk regarding both supplier and user load profiles and market prices of the standard input. Baseline input purchasing cost reduction is thus more driven by the operational phase of the symbiosis and must be analyzed within the whole sourcing policy (including diversification strategies and expensive back-up replacement). Moreover, while resource substitution involves a chain of intermediate processors to match quality requirements, the infrastructure model relies on a single operator whose competencies allow to produce non-rival goods. Transaction costs appear higher in resource substitution synergies due to the high level of customization which induces asset specificity, and non-homogeneity following transaction costs economics arguments.

Keywords: business model, capacity, sourcing, synergies

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Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin

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Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.

Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes

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Authors: Marriette Sakah, Samuel Gyamfi, Morkporkpor Delight Sedzro, Christoph Kuhn

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Ghana is experiencing rapid economic development and its cities command an increasingly dominant role as centers of both production and consumption. Cities run on energy and are extremely vulnerable to energy scarcity, energy price escalations and health impacts of very poor air quality. The overriding concern in Ghana and other West African states is bridging the gap between energy demand and supply. Energy efficiency presents a cost-effective solution for supply challenges by enabling more coverage with current power supply levels and reducing the need for investment in additional generation capacity and grid infrastructure. In Ghana, major issues for energy policy formulation in residential applications include lack of disaggregated electrical energy consumption data and lack of thorough understanding with regards to socio-economic influences on energy efficiency investment. This study uses a bottom up approach to estimate baseline electricity end-use as well as the energy consumption of best available technologies to enable estimation of energy-efficiency resource in terms of relative reduction in total energy use for Tema city, Ghana. A ground survey was conducted to assess the probable consumer behavior in response to energy efficiency initiatives to enable estimation of the amount of savings that would occur in response to specific policy interventions with regards to funding and incentives provision targeted at households. Results show that 16% - 54% reduction in annual electricity consumption is reasonably achievable depending on the level of incentives provision. The saved energy could supply 10000 - 34000 additional households if the added households use only best available technology. Political support and consumer awareness are necessary to translate energy efficiency resources into real energy savings.

Keywords: achievable energy savings, energy efficiency, Ghana, household appliances

Procedia PDF Downloads 192