Search results for: measurement models

Authors: Sharda Kumari

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As the Covid-19 pandemic continues to leave its mark on the global business landscape, companies have had to adapt to new realities and find ways to sustain their operations amid social distancing measures, government restrictions, and heightened public health concerns. This unprecedented situation has placed considerable stress on both employees and employers, underscoring the need for innovative approaches to manage the risks associated with Covid-19 transmission in the workplace. In response to these challenges, the pandemic has accelerated the adoption of digital technologies, with an increasing preference for remote interactions and virtual collaboration. Customer relationship management (CRM) systems have risen to prominence as a vital resource for organizations navigating the post-pandemic world, providing a range of benefits that include acquiring new customers, generating insightful consumer data, enhancing customer relationships, and growing market share. In the context of pandemic management, CRM systems offer three primary advantages: (1) integration features that streamline operations and reduce the need for multiple, costly software systems; (2) worldwide accessibility from any internet-enabled device, facilitating efficient remote workforce management during a pandemic; and (3) the capacity for rapid adaptation to changing business conditions, given that most CRM platforms boast a wide array of remotely deployable business growth solutions, a critical attribute when dealing with a dispersed workforce in a pandemic-impacted environment. These advantages highlight the pivotal role of CRM systems in helping organizations remain resilient and adaptive in the face of ongoing global challenges.

Keywords: healthcare, CRM, customer relationship management, customer experience, digital transformation, pandemic response, patient monitoring, patient management, healthcare automation, electronic health record, patient billing, healthcare information systems, remote workforce, virtual collaboration, resilience, adaptable business models, integration features, CRM in healthcare, telehealth, pandemic management

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Authors: Muhammad Ali Siddiquee, Md. Alauddin, Md. Omar Faruque, Zakir Hossain Howlader, Mohammad Asaduzzaman

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Rice bran (RB) and rice bran oil (RBO) are explored as prominent food components worldwide. In this study, fermented rice bran (FRB) was produced by employing edible gram-positive bacteria (Lactobacillus acidophilus, Lactobacillus bulgaricus, and Bifidobacterium bifidum) at 125 x 10⁵ spore g⁻¹ of rice bran, and investigated to evaluate nutritional quality. The crude rice bran oil (CRBO) was extracted from RB, and its quality was also investigated compared to market-available rice bran oil (MRBO) in Bangladesh. We found that fermentation of rice bran with lactic acid bacteria increased total proteins (29.52%), fat (5.38%), ash (48.47%), crude fiber (38.96%), and moisture (61.04%) and reduced the carbohydrate content (36.61%). We also found that essential amino acids (methionine, tryptophan, threonine, valine, leucine, lysine, histidine, and phenylalanine) and non-essential amino acids (alanine, aspartate, glycine, glutamine, proline, serine, and tyrosine) were increased in FRB except methionine and proline. Moreover, total phenolic content, tannin content, flavonoid content, and antioxidant activity were increased in FRB. The RBO analysis showed that γ-oryzanol content (10.00mg/g) was found in CRBO compared to MRBO (ranging from 7.40 to 12.70 mg/g) and Vitamin-E content 0.20% was found higher in CRBO compared to MRBO (ranging 0.097 to 0.12%). The total saturated (25.16%) and total unsaturated fatty acids (74.44%) were found in CRBO, whereas MRBO contained total saturated (22.08 to 24.13%) and total unsaturated fatty acids (71.91 to 83.29%), respectively. The physiochemical parameters were found satisfactory in all samples except acid value and peroxide value higher in CRBO. Finally, animal experiments showed that FRB and CRBO reduce the body weight, glucose, and lipid profile in high-fat diet-induced animal models. Thus, FRB and RBO could be value-added food supplements for human health.

Keywords: fermented rice bran, crude rice bran oil, amino acids, proximate composition, gamma-oryzanol, fatty acids, heavy metals, physiochemical parameters

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Authors: Jae-Yong Park, Yeo-Kyeong Lee, Hee-Sun Kim

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Purpose: This study aims at investigating the mechanical behaviors of mastication, according to various teeth movement. There are three masticatory cases which are general case and 2 cases of teeth movement. General case includes the common arrange of all teeth and 2 cases of teeth movement are that one is the half movement location case of molar teeth in no. 14 tooth seat after extraction of no. 14 tooth and the other is no. 14 tooth seat location case of molar teeth after extraction in the same case before. Materials and Methods: In order to analyze these cases, 3 dimensional finite element (FE) model of the skull were generated based on computed tomography images, 964 dicom files of 38 year old male having normal occlusion status. An FE model in general occlusal case was used to develop CAE procedure. This procedure was applied to FE models in other occlusal cases. The displacement controls according to loading condition were applied effectively to simulate occlusal behaviors in all cases. From the FE analyses, von Mises stress distribution of skull and teeth was observed. The von Mises stress, effective stress, had been widely used to determine the absolute stress value, regardless of stress direction and yield characteristics of materials. Results: High stress was distributed over the periodontal area of mandible under molar teeth when the mandible was transmitted to the coronal-apical direction in the general occlusal case. According to the stress propagation from teeth to cranium, stress distribution decreased as the distribution propagated from molar teeth to infratemporal crest of the greater wing of the sphenoid bone and lateral pterygoid plate in general case. In 2 cases of teeth movement, there were observed that high stresses were distributed over the periodontal area of mandible under teeth where they are located under the moved molar teeth in cranium. Conclusion: The predictions of the mechanical behaviors of general case and 2 cases of teeth movement during the masticatory process were investigated including qualitative validation. The displacement controls as the loading condition were applied effectively to simulate occlusal behaviors in 2 cases of teeth movement of molar teeth.

Keywords: cranium, finite element analysis, mandible, masticatory action, occlusal force

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Authors: Kholoud Abdulaziz, Kholoud Al-Najdi, Abdullah Kadri, Konstantinos E. Kakosimos

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The Middle East area is highly affected by air pollution induced by anthropogenic and natural phenomena. There is evidence that air pollution, especially particulates, greatly affects the population health. Many studies have raised a warning of the high concentration of particulates and their affect not just around industrial and construction areas but also in the immediate working and living environment. One of the methods to study air quality is continuous and periodic monitoring using active or passive samplers. Active monitoring and sampling are the default procedures per the European and US standards. However, in many cases they have been inefficient to accurately capture the spatial variability of air pollution due to the small number of installations; which eventually is attributed to the high cost of the equipment and the limited availability of users with expertise and scientific background. Another alternative has been found to account for the limitations of the active methods that is the passive sampling. It is inexpensive, requires no continuous power supply, and easy to assemble which makes it a more flexible option, though less accurate. This study aims to investigate and evaluate the use of passive sampling for particulate matter pollution monitoring in dry tropical climates, like in the Middle East. More specifically, a number of field measurements have be conducted, both indoors and outdoors, at Qatar and the results have been compared with active sampling equipment and the reference methods. The samples have been analyzed, that is to obtain particle size distribution, by applying existing laboratory techniques (optical microscopy) and by exploring new approaches like the white light interferometry to. Then the new parameters of the well-established model have been calculated in order to estimate the atmospheric concentration of particulates. Additionally, an extended literature review will investigate for new and better models. The outcome of this project is expected to have an impact on the public, as well, as it will raise awareness among people about the quality of life and about the importance of implementing research culture in the community.

Keywords: air pollution, passive samplers, interferometry, indoor, outdoor

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Authors: Jae Ni Jang, Young Uk Kim

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Background: Chat Generative Pre-training Transformer-3 (ChatGPT; San Francisco, California, Open Artificial Intelligence) is an artificial intelligence chatbot based on a large language model designed to generate human-like text. As the usage of ChatGPT is increasing among less knowledgeable patients, medical students, and anesthesia and pain medicine residents or trainees, we aimed to evaluate the accuracy of ChatGPT-3 responses to questions about the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification based on patients’ underlying diseases and assess the quality of the generated responses. Methods: A total of 47 questions were submitted to ChatGPT using textual prompts. The questions were designed for ChatGPT-3 to provide answers regarding ASA classification in response to common underlying diseases frequently observed in adult patients. In addition, we created 18 questions regarding the ASA classification for pediatric patients and pregnant women. The accuracy of ChatGPT’s responses was evaluated by cross-referencing with Miller’s Anesthesia, Morgan & Mikhail’s Clinical Anesthesiology, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists’ ASA Physical Status Classification System (2020). Results: Out of the 47 questions pertaining to adults, ChatGPT -3 provided correct answers for only 23, resulting in an accuracy rate of 48.9%. Furthermore, the responses provided by ChatGPT-3 regarding children and pregnant women were mostly inaccurate, as indicated by a 28% accuracy rate (5 out of 18). Conclusions: ChatGPT provided correct responses to questions relevant to the daily clinical routine of anesthesiologists in approximately half of the cases, while the remaining responses contained errors. Therefore, caution is advised when using ChatGPT to retrieve anesthesia-related information. Although ChatGPT may not yet be suitable for clinical settings, we anticipate significant improvements in ChatGPT and other large language models in the near future. Regular assessments of ChatGPT's ASA classification accuracy are essential due to the evolving nature of ChatGPT as an artificial intelligence entity. This is especially important because ChatGPT has a clinically unacceptable rate of error and hallucination, particularly in pediatric patients and pregnant women. The methodology established in this study may be used to continue evaluating ChatGPT.

Keywords: American Society of Anesthesiologists, artificial intelligence, Chat Generative Pre-training Transformer-3, ChatGPT

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Authors: Elżbieta Turska

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Introduction: One of the most difficult times in a person’s life is adolescence. The experiences in this period may shape the future life of this person to a large extent. This is the reason why many young people experience sadness, dejection, hopelessness, sense of worthlessness, as well as losing interest in various activities and social relationships, all of which are often classified as mood disorders. As many as 15-40% adolescents experience depressed moods and for most of them they resolve and are not carried into adulthood. However, (5-6%) of those affected by mood disorders develop the depressive syndrome and as many as (1-3%) develop full-blown clinical depression. Materials: A large questionnaire was given to 2508 students, aged 13–16 years old, and one of its parts was the Burns checklist, i.e. the standard test for identifying depressed mood. The questionnaire asked about many aspects of the student’s life, it included a total of 53 questions, most of which had subquestions. It is important to note that the data suffered from many problems, the most important of which were missing data and collinearity. Aim: In order to identify the correlates of mood disorders we built predictive models which were then trained and validated. Our aim was not to be able to predict which students suffer from mood disorders but rather to explore the factors influencing mood disorders. Methods: The problems with data described above practically excluded using all classical statistical methods. For this reason, we attempted to use the following Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods: classification trees with surrogate variables, random forests and xgboost. All analyses were carried out with the use of the mlr package for the R programming language. Resuts: The predictive model built by classification trees algorithm outperformed the other algorithms by a large margin. As a result, we were able to rank the variables (questions and subquestions from the questionnaire) from the most to least influential as far as protection against mood disorder is concerned. Thirteen out of twenty most important variables reflect the relationships with parents. This seems to be a really significant result both from the cognitive point of view and also from the practical point of view, i.e. as far as interventions to correct mood disorders are concerned.

Keywords: mood disorders, adolescents, family, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Krunal Thakar

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Wire ropes combine high tensile strength and flexibility as compared to other general steel products. They are used in various application areas such as cranes, mining, elevators, bridges, cable cars, etc. The earliest reported use of wire ropes was for mining hoist application in 1830s. Over the period, there have been substantial advancement in the design of wire ropes for various application areas. Under operational conditions, wire ropes are subjected to varying tensile loads and bending loads resulting in material wear and eventual structural failure due to fretting fatigue. The conventional inspection methods to determine wire failure is only limited to outer wires of rope. However, till date, there is no effective mathematical model to examine the inter wire contact forces and wear characteristics. The scope of this paper is to present a computational simulation technique to evaluate inter wire contact forces and wear, which are in many cases responsible for rope failure. Two different type of ropes, IWRC-6xFi(29) and U3xSeS(48) were taken for structural strength evaluation and wear prediction. Both ropes have a double helix twisted wire profile as per JIS standards and are mainly used in cranes. CAD models of both ropes were developed in general purpose design software using in house developed formulation to generate double helix profile. Numerical simulation was done under two different load cases (a) Axial Tension and (b) Bending over Sheave. Different parameters such as stresses, contact forces, wear depth, load-elongation, etc., were investigated and compared between both ropes. Numerical simulation method facilitates the detailed investigation of inter wire contact and wear characteristics. In addition, various selection parameters like sheave diameter, rope diameter, helix angle, swaging, maximum load carrying capacity, etc., can be quickly analyzed.

Keywords: steel wire ropes, numerical simulation, material wear, structural strength, axial tension, bending over sheave

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Authors: Swathi Ganesan, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Gayathri Karthick

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The COVID-19 crisis presents a substantial and critical hazard to worldwide health. Since the occurrence of the disease in late January 2020 in the UK, the number of infected people confirmed to acquire the illness has increased tremendously across the country, and the number of individuals affected is undoubtedly considerably high. The purpose of this research is to figure out a predictive machine learning archetypal that could forecast COVID-19 cases within the UK. This study concentrates on the statistical data collected from 31st January 2020 to 31st March 2021 in the United Kingdom. Information on total COVID cases registered, new cases encountered on a daily basis, total death registered, and patients’ death per day due to Coronavirus is collected from World Health Organisation (WHO). Data preprocessing is carried out to identify any missing values, outliers, or anomalies in the dataset. The data is split into 8:2 ratio for training and testing purposes to forecast future new COVID cases. Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, and linear regression algorithms are chosen to study the model performance in the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. From the evaluation metrics such as r-squared value and mean squared error, the statistical performance of the model in predicting the new COVID cases is evaluated. Random Forest outperformed the other two Machine Learning algorithms with a training accuracy of 99.47% and testing accuracy of 98.26% when n=30. The mean square error obtained for Random Forest is 4.05e11, which is lesser compared to the other predictive models used for this study. From the experimental analysis Random Forest algorithm can perform more effectively and efficiently in predicting the new COVID cases, which could help the health sector to take relevant control measures for the spread of the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, linear regression, support vector machine, random forest

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Authors: Breanna Macumber, Victor A. Huayamave, Emir A. Vela, Wangdo Kim, Tamara T. Chamber, Esteban Centeno

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Spina bifida is a type of neural tube defect that affects the nervous system and can lead to problems such as total leg paralysis. Treatment requires physical therapy and rehabilitation. Robotic exoskeletons have been used for rehabilitation to train muscle movement and assist in injury recovery; however, current models focus on the adult populations and not on the infant population. The proposed framework aims to couple a musculoskeletal infant model with a robotic exoskeleton using vacuum-powered artificial muscles to provide rehabilitation to infants affected by spina bifida. The study that drove the input values for the robotic exoskeleton used motion capture technology to collect data from the spontaneous kicking movement of a 2.4-month-old infant lying supine. OpenSim was used to develop the musculoskeletal model, and Inverse kinematics was used to estimate hip joint angles. A total of 4 kicks (A, B, C, D) were selected, and the selection was based on range, transient response, and stable response. Kicks had at least 5° of range of motion with a smooth transient response and a stable period. The robotic exoskeleton used a Vacuum-Powered Artificial Muscle (VPAM) the structure comprised of cells that were clipped in a collapsed state and unclipped when desired to simulate infant’s age. The artificial muscle works with vacuum pressure. When air is removed, the muscle contracts and when air is added, the muscle relaxes. Bench testing was performed using a 6-month-old infant mannequin. The previously developed exoskeleton worked really well with controlled ranges of motion and frequencies, which are typical of rehabilitation protocols for infants suffering with spina bifida. However, the random kicking motion in this study contained high frequency kicks and was not able to accurately replicate all the investigated kicks. Kick 'A' had a greater error when compared to the other kicks. This study has the potential to advance the infant rehabilitation field.

Keywords: musculoskeletal modeling, soft robotics, rehabilitation, pediatrics

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Authors: Eric Lacoste

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Laboratory animals are currently widely used as a model of human pathologies in dermatology such as atopic dermatitis (AD). These models provide a better understanding of the pathophysiology of this complex and multifactorial disease, the discovery of potential new therapeutic targets and the testing of the efficacy of new therapeutics. However, confirmation of the correct development of AD is mainly based on histology from skin biopsies requiring invasive surgery or euthanasia of the animals, plus slicing and staining protocols. However, there are currently accessible imaging technologies such as Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT), which allows non-invasive visualization of the main histological structures of the skin (like stratum corneum, epidermis, and dermis) and assessment of the dynamics of the pathology or efficacy of new treatments. Briefly, female immunocompetent hairless mice (SKH1 strain) were sensitized and challenged topically on back and ears for about 4 weeks. Back skin and ears thickness were measured using calliper at 3 occasions per week in complement to a macroscopic evaluation of atopic dermatitis lesions on back: erythema, scaling and excoriations scoring. In addition, OCT was performed on the back and ears of animals. OCT allows a virtual in-depth section (tomography) of the imaged organ to be made using a laser, a camera and image processing software allowing fast, non-contact and non-denaturing acquisitions of the explored tissues. To perform the imaging sessions, the animals were anesthetized with isoflurane, placed on a support under the OCT for a total examination time of 5 to 10 minutes. The results show a good correlation of the OCT technique with classical HES histology for skin lesions structures such as hyperkeratosis, epidermal hyperplasia, and dermis thickness. This OCT imaging technique can, therefore, be used in live animals at different times for longitudinal evaluation by repeated measurements of lesions in the same animals, in addition to the classical histological evaluation. Furthermore, this original imaging technique speeds up research protocols, reduces the number of animals and refines the use of the laboratory animal.

Keywords: atopic dermatitis, mouse model, oxzolone model, histology, imaging

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Authors: Glenda Wrenn, Juliet Muzere, Meldra Hall, Allyson Belton, Kisha Holden, Chanita Hughes-Halbert, Martha Kent, Bekh Bradley

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Understanding the help seeking decision making process and experiences of health disparity populations with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is central to development of trauma-informed, culturally centered, and patient focused services. Yet, little is known about the decision making process among adult Black women who are non-treatment seekers as they are, by definition, not engaged in services. Methods: Audiotaped interviews were conducted with 30 African American adult women with clinically significant PTSD symptoms who were engaged in primary care, but not in treatment for PTSD despite symptom burden. A qualitative interview guide was used to elucidate key themes. Independent coding of themes mapped to theory and identification of emergent themes were conducted using qualitative methods. An existing quantitative dataset was analyzed to contextualize responses and provide a descriptive summary of the sample. Results: Emergent themes revealed that active mental avoidance, the intermittent nature of distress, ambivalence, and self-identified resilience as undermining to help seeking decisions. Participants were stuck within the help-seeking phase of ‘recognition’ of illness and retained a sense of “it is my decision” despite endorsing significant social and environmental negative influencers. Participants distinguished ‘help acceptance’ from ‘help seeking’ with greater willingness to accept help and importance placed on being of help to others. Conclusions: Elucidation of the decision-making process from the perspective of non-treatment seekers has implications for outreach and treatment within models of integrated and specialty systems care. The salience of responses to trauma symptoms and stagnation in the help seeking recognition phase are findings relevant to integrated care service design and community engagement.

Keywords: culture, help-seeking, integrated care, PTSD

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Authors: Cait M. Henry, Sarah Jackson

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Abstract-This study is built from the culmination of four years of research into the cultural interpretation of Civil War heritage at a National Park Service (NPS) site, namely the Manassas National Battlefield Park, within an increasingly contentious political landscape surrounding the U.S. Civil War. Originating as questions regarding the relevancy of historic battlefields to the current culture within the United States soon evolved into more philosophical questions about what it means to feel welcome at a battlefield site, and what are considered appropriate actions and behaviors at what was once a mass gravesite. In trying to answer these questions, this work aims to critically analyze the confluence between the cultural authority of the NPS and collective memories of the U.S. Civil War. Operationalizing trauma as repeated violent acts within public spaces, the authors posit that the normalization of violence from white or white-passing men partially stems from the glorification of heroic white masculinity at National Park Service Civil War battlefield sites—especially those which also commemorate Confederate military strategy and prowess. From here the study moves outward to focus on the prevalence of heroic white masculinity within the nation’s current social zeitgeist, and particularly the notion that to take back masculinity one must utilize violence as a means of symbolic restoration from perceptions of white victimhood. The study ends with case studies of dark tourism framing at international battlefields as models for expanding heritage interpretation at the NPS site to foster narratives of empathy and responsibility within an increasingly contentious political landscape within the United States of America. Visitors do not leave Manassas National Battlefield Park with answers about the social and moral implications of the U.S. Civil War, but the tools for championing their own (predominantly white) heroic masculinity. As such, it is only logical that one common reaction when masculinity is symbolically threatened is to enact violence against Others as a restorative force within the United States.

Keywords: confederate heritage, military history, national park service, trauma, United States civil war

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Authors: Migena Mana, Ahmed Khalid Syed, Abdul Malik, Nikhil Cherian

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In recent years, advancements in deep learning enabled researchers to tackle the problem of self-driving cars. Car companies use huge datasets to train their deep learning models to make autonomous cars a reality. However, this approach has certain drawbacks in that the state space of possible actions for a car is so huge that there cannot be a dataset for every possible road scenario. To overcome this problem, the concept of reinforcement learning (RL) is being investigated in this research. Since the problem of autonomous driving can be modeled in a simulation, it lends itself naturally to the domain of reinforcement learning. The advantage of this approach is that we can model different and complex road scenarios in a simulation without having to deploy in the real world. The autonomous agent can learn to drive by finding the optimal policy. This learned model can then be easily deployed in a real-world setting. In this project, we focus on three RL algorithms: Q-learning, Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). To model the environment, we have used TORCS (The Open Racing Car Simulator), which provides us with a strong foundation to test our model. The inputs to the algorithms are the sensor data provided by the simulator such as velocity, distance from side pavement, etc. The outcome of this research project is a comparative analysis of these algorithms. Based on the comparison, the PPO algorithm gives the best results. When using PPO algorithm, the reward is greater, and the acceleration, steering angle and braking are more stable compared to the other algorithms, which means that the agent learns to drive in a better and more efficient way in this case. Additionally, we have come up with a dataset taken from the training of the agent with DDPG and PPO algorithms. It contains all the steps of the agent during one full training in the form: (all input values, acceleration, steering angle, break, loss, reward). This study can serve as a base for further complex road scenarios. Furthermore, it can be enlarged in the field of computer vision, using the images to find the best policy.

Keywords: autonomous driving, DDPG (deep deterministic policy gradient), PPO (proximal policy optimization), reinforcement learning

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Authors: Fouad Chebib, Marie Hogan, Ziad El-Zoghby, Maria Irazabal, Sarah Senum, Christina Heyer, Charles Madsen, Emilie Cornec-Le Gall, Atta Behfar, Barbara Ehrlich, Peter Harris, Vicente Torres

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Background: Mutations in PKD1 and PKD2, the genes encoding the proteins polycystin-1 (PC1) and polycystin-2 (PC2) cause autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). ADPKD is a systemic disease associated with several extrarenal manifestations. Animal models have suggested an important role for the polycystins in cardiovascular function. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the association of various cardiomyopathies in a large cohort of patients with ADPKD. Methods: Clinical data was retrieved from medical records for all patients with ADPKD and cardiomyopathies (n=159). Genetic analysis was performed on available DNA by direct sequencing. Results: Among the 58 patients included in this case series, 39 patients had idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDCM), 17 had hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy (HOCM), and 2 had left ventricular noncompaction (LVNC). The mean age at cardiomyopathy diagnosis was 53.3, 59.9 and 53.5 years in IDCM, HOCM and LVNC patients respectively. The median left ventricular ejection fraction at initial diagnosis of IDCM was 25%. Average basal septal thickness was 19.9 mm in patients with HOCM. Genetic data was available in 19, 8 and 2 cases of IDCM, HOCM, and LVNC respectively. PKD1 mutations were detected in 47.4%, 62.5% and 100% of IDCM, HOCM and LVNC cases. PKD2 mutations were detected only in IDCM cases and were overrepresented (36.8%) relative to the expected frequency in ADPKD (~15%). The prevalence of IDCM, HOCM, and LVNC in our ADPKD clinical cohort was 1:17, 1:39 and 1:333 respectively. When compared to the general population, IDCM and HOCM was approximately 10-fold more prevalent in patients with ADPKD. Conclusions: In summary, we suggest that PKD1 or PKD2 mutations may predispose to idiopathic dilated or hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. There is a trend for patients with PKD2 mutations to develop the former and for patients with PKD1 mutations to develop the latter. Predisposition to various cardiomyopathies may be another extrarenal manifestation of ADPKD.

Keywords: autosomal dominant polycystic kidney (ADPKD), polycystic kidney disease, cardiovascular, cardiomyopathy, idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, left ventricular noncompaction

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Authors: Jameelah Omolara Yaqub

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One of the main reasons for the existence of central bank is that it is believed that central banks have some influence on private sector decisions which will enable the Central Bank to achieve some of its objectives especially that of stable price and economic growth. By the assumption of the New Keynesian theory that prices are fully flexible in the short run, the central bank can temporarily influence real interest rate and, therefore, have an effect on real output in addition to nominal prices. There is, therefore, the need for the Central Bank to monitor, respond to, and influence private sector decisions appropriately. This thus shows that the Central Bank and the private sector will both affect and be affected by each other implying considerable interdependence between the sectors. The interdependence may be simultaneous or not depending on the level of information, readily available and how sensitive prices are to agents’ expectations about the future. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to determine whether the interdependence between asset prices and monetary policy are simultaneous or not and how important is this relationship. Studies on the effects of monetary policy have largely used VAR models to identify the interdependence but most have found small effects of interaction. Some earlier studies have ignored the possibility of simultaneous interdependence while those that have allowed for simultaneous interdependence used data from developed economies only. This study, therefore, extends the literature by using data from a developing economy where information might not be readily available to influence agents’ expectation. In this study, the direction of relationship among variables of interest will be tested by carrying out the Granger causality test. Thereafter, the interaction between asset prices and monetary policy in Nigeria will be tested. Asset prices will be represented by the NSE index as well as real estate prices while monetary policy will be represented by money supply and the MPR respectively. The VAR model will be used to analyse the relationship between the variables in order to take account of potential simultaneity of interdependence. The study will cover the period between 1980 and 2014 due to data availability. It is believed that the outcome of the research will guide monetary policymakers especially the CBN to effectively influence the private sector decisions and thereby achieve its objectives of price stability and economic growth.

Keywords: asset prices, granger causality, monetary policy rate, Nigeria

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Authors: E. Gouya Bozorg

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The issue of ranking of sports teams, in particular soccer teams is of primary importance in the professional sports. However, it is still based on classical statistics and models outside of area of mathematics. Rigorous mathematics and then statistics despite the expectation held of them have not been able to effectively engage in the issue of ranking. It is something that requires serious pathology. The purpose of this study is to change the approach to get closer to mathematics proper for using in the ranking. We recommend using theoretical mathematics as a good option because it can hermeneutically obtain the theoretical concepts and criteria needful for the ranking from everyday language of a League. We have proposed a framework that puts the issue of ranking into a new space that we have applied in soccer as a case study. This is an experimental and theoretical study on the issue of ranking in a professional soccer league based on theoretical mathematics, followed by theoretical statistics. First, we showed the theoretical definition of constant number Є = 1.33 or ‘golden number’ of a soccer league. Then, we have defined the ‘efficiency of a team’ by this number and formula of μ = (Pts / (k.Є)) – 1, in which Pts is a point obtained by a team in k number of games played. Moreover, K.Є index has been used to show the theoretical median line in the league table and to compare top teams and bottom teams. Theoretical coefficient of σ= 1 / (1+ (Ptx / Ptxn)) has also been defined that in every match between the teams x, xn, with respect to the ability of a team and the points of both of them Ptx, Ptxn, and it gives a performance point resulting in a special ranking for the League. And it has been useful particularly in evaluating the performance of weaker teams. The current theory has been examined for the statistical data of 4 major European Leagues during the period of 1998-2014. Results of this study showed that the issue of ranking is dependent on appropriate theoretical indicators of a League. These indicators allowed us to find different forms of ranking of teams in a league including the ‘special table’ of a league. Furthermore, on this basis the issue of a record of team has been revised and amended. In addition, the theory of ranking can be used to compare and classify the different leagues and tournaments. Experimental results obtained from archival statistics of major professional leagues in the world in the past two decades have confirmed the theory. This topic introduces a new theory for ranking of a soccer league. Moreover, this theory can be used to compare different leagues and tournaments.

Keywords: efficiency of a team, ranking, special table, theoretical mathematic

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Authors: Moses Pinto, Ana Paula Monte

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The present research analyses the interactions between various categories of corporate social responsibility (CSR) that mediate the relationship between CSR and financial performance in Multinational Enterprises (MNE) in light of the present socio-political factors prevalent in the countries under observation. In the research it has been hypothesized that the absence of consensus in the empirical literature on the CSR–financial performance relationship may be explained by the existence of synergies (Complementarities) between the different CSR components. Upon investigation about whether such relationships exist, a final unbalanced panel sample of 1000 observations taken from 100 Multinational Enterprises per year functioning in the Schengen countries and one south east Asian country namely: India, over the span of 10 years i.e. from the year 2008 to 2018 has been analyzed. The empirical analysis used in the research methodology employs dynamic Panel Data in time series specifically, the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) which had been used to detect the varying degrees of relationships between the CSR and financial performance parameters in the background of the socio-political factors prevailing in the countries at the time and also taking into account the bilateral treaty obligations between the countries under observation. The econometric model has employed the financial ratio namely the Return on Assets (ROA) as an indicator of financial performance in order to gauge the internal performance and valuation of a firm as opposed to the Tobin’s Q that provides for the external evaluation of a firm’s financial performance which may not always be accurate. The various CSR dimensions have demonstrated significant correlations to the ‘ROA’ which include some negatively associated correlations and one positively associated correlation that is highly significant throughout the analysis of the observations, namely the correlation between the ‘ROA’ and the CSR dimension: ‘Environment’. The results provide a deeper insight in the synergistic CSR activities that managers could adapt into their Firm’s CSR strategy in order to enhance the ‘ROA’ and also to understand which interactions between the CSR dimensions can be adapted together due to their positively correlated association with each other and the ROA. The future lines of research would be inclined to investigate the effects of socio-political factors on the ROA of the MNEs through better designed econometric models.

Keywords: CSR, financial performance, complementarity, sociopolitical factors

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Authors: Rudolf Hrach, Stanislav Novak, Vera Hrachova

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Composite and nanocomposite films represent the class of promising materials and are often objects of the study due to their mechanical, electrical and other properties. The most interesting ones are probably the composite metal/dielectric structures consisting of a metal component embedded in an oxide or polymer matrix. Behaviour of composite films varies with the amount of the metal component inside what is called filling factor. The structures contain individual metal particles or nanoparticles completely insulated by the dielectric matrix for small filling factors and the films have more or less dielectric properties. The conductivity of the films increases with increasing filling factor and finally a transition into metallic state occurs. The behaviour of composite films near a percolation threshold, where the change of charge transport mechanism from a thermally-activated tunnelling between individual metal objects to an ohmic conductivity is observed, is especially important. Physical properties of composite films are given not only by the concentration of metal component but also by the spatial and size distributions of metal objects which are influenced by a technology used. In our contribution, a study of composite structures with the help of methods of computational physics was performed. The study consists of two parts: -Generation of simulated composite and nanocomposite films. The techniques based on hard-sphere or soft-sphere models as well as on atomic modelling are used here. Characterizations of prepared composite structures by image analysis of their sections or projections follow then. However, the analysis of various morphological methods must be performed as the standard algorithms based on the theory of mathematical morphology lose their sensitivity when applied to composite films. -The charge transport in the composites was studied by the kinetic Monte Carlo method as there is a close connection between structural and electric properties of composite and nanocomposite films. It was found that near the percolation threshold the paths of tunnel current forms so-called fuzzy clusters. The main aim of the present study was to establish the correlation between morphological properties of composites/nanocomposites and structures of conducting paths in them in the dependence on the technology of composite films.

Keywords: composite films, computer modelling, image analysis, nanocomposite films

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Authors: Mauro Callejas-Cuervo, Andrea Catherine Alarcon-Aldana, Lorena Paola Castillo-Guerra

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The software industry requires highly-trained professionals, capable of developing the roles integrated in the cycle of software development. That is why a large part of the task is the responsibility of higher education institutions; often through a curriculum established to orientate the academic development of the students. It is so that nowadays there are different models that support proposals for the improvement of the curricula for the area of Software Engineering, such as ACM, IEEE, ABET, Swebok, of which the last stands out, given that it manages and organises the knowledge of Software Engineering and offers a vision of theoretical and practical aspects. Moreover, it has been applied by different universities in the pursuit of achieving coverage in delivering the different topics and increasing the professional quality of future graduates. This research presents the structure of teaching and learning guides from the objectives of training and methodological strategies immersed in the levels of learning of Bloom’s taxonomy with which it is intended to improve the delivery of the topics in the area of Requirements Engineering. Said guides were implemented and validated in a course of Requirements Engineering of the Systems and Computer Engineering programme in the Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia (Pedagogical and Technological University of Colombia) using a four stage methodology: definition of the evaluation model, implementation of the guides, guide evaluation, and analysis of the results. After the collection and analysis of the data, the results show that in six out of the seven topics proposed in the Swebok guide, the percentage of students who obtained total marks within the 'High grade' level, that is between 4.0 and 4.6 (on a scale of 0.0 to 5.0), was higher than the percentage of students who obtained marks within the 'Acceptable' range of 3.0 to 3.9. In 86% of the topics and the strategies proposed, the teaching and learning guides facilitated the comprehension, analysis, and articulation of the concepts and processes of the students. In addition, they mainly indicate that the guides strengthened the argumentative and interpretative competencies, while the remaining 14% denotes the need to reinforce the strategies regarding the propositive competence, given that it presented the lowest average.

Keywords: pedagogic guide, pedagogic strategies, requirements engineering, Swebok, teaching-learning process

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Authors: Sofiya Rao, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction continues to be one of the largest sources of uncertainty in quantifying the aerosol climate forcing. The uncertainty is increasing from global to regional scale. This problem remains unresolved due to the large discrepancy in the representation of cloud processes in the climate models. Most of the studies on aerosol-cloud-climate interaction and aerosol-cloud-precipitation over Indian Ocean (like INDOEX, CAIPEEX campaign etc.) are restricted to either particular to one season or particular to one region. Here we developed a theoretical framework to quantify aerosol indirect radiative forcing using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol and cloud products of 15 years (2000-2015) period over the Indian Ocean. This framework relies on the observationally constrained estimate of the aerosol-induced change in cloud albedo. We partitioned the change in cloud albedo into the change in Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Effective Radius of Clouds (Reff) in response to an aerosol optical depth (AOD). Cloud albedo response to an increase in AOD is most sensitive in the range of LWP between 120-300 gm/m² for a range of Reff varying from 8-24 micrometer, which means aerosols are most sensitive to this range of LWP and Reff. Using this framework, aerosol forcing during a transition from indirect to semi-direct effect is also calculated. The outcome of this analysis shows best results over the Arabian Sea in comparison with the Bay of Bengal and the South Indian Ocean because of heterogeneity in aerosol spices over the Arabian Sea. Over the Arabian Sea during Winter Season the more absorbing aerosols are dominating, during Pre-monsoon dust (coarse mode aerosol particles) are more dominating. In winter and pre-monsoon majorly the aerosol forcing is more dominating while during monsoon and post-monsoon season meteorological forcing is more dominating. Over the South Indian Ocean, more or less same types of aerosol (Sea salt) are present. Over the Arabian Sea the Aerosol Indirect Radiative forcing are varying from -5 ± 4.5 W/m² for winter season while in other seasons it is reducing. The results provide observationally constrained estimates of aerosol indirect forcing in the Indian Ocean which can be helpful in evaluating the climate model performance in the context of such complex interactions.

Keywords: aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction, aerosol-cloud-climate interaction, indirect radiative forcing, climate model

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Authors: Bryan Jenkins

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Introduction: The expansion of irrigation in the Canterbury region has led to the sustainability limits being reached for water availability and the cumulative effects of land use intensification. The institutional framework under New Zealand’s Resource Management Act was found to be an inadequate basis for managing water at sustainability limits. An alternative paradigm for water management was developed based on collaborative governance and nested adaptive systems. This led to the formulation and implementation of the Canterbury Water Management Strategy. Methods: The nested adaptive system approach was adopted. Sustainability issues were identified at multiple spatial and time scales and defined potential failure pathways for the water resource system. These included biophysical and socio-economic issues such as water availability, cumulative effects on water quality due to land use intensification, projected changes in climate, public health, institutional arrangements, economic outcomes and externalities, and, social effects of changing technology. This led to the derivation of sustainability strategies to address these failure pathways. The collaborative governance approach involved stakeholder participation and community engagement to decide on a regional strategy; regional and zone committees of community and rūnanga (Māori groups) members to develop implementation programmes for the strategy; and, farmer collectives for operational management. Findings: The strategy identified improvements in the efficiency of use of water already allocated was more effective in improving water availability than a reliance on increased storage alone. New forms of storage with less adverse impacts were introduced, such as managed aquifer recharge and off-river storage. Reductions of nutrients from land use intensification by improving management practices has been a priority. Solutions packages for addressing the degradation of vulnerable lakes and rivers have been prepared. Biodiversity enhancement projects have been initiated. Greater involvement of Māori has led to the incorporation of kaitiakitanga (resource stewardship) into implementation programmes. Emerging issues are the need for improved integration of surface water and groundwater interactions, increased use of modelling of water and financial outcomes to guide decision making, and, equity in allocation among existing users as well as between existing and future users. Conclusions: However, sustainability analysis indicates that the proposed levels of management interventions are not sufficient to achieve community targets for water management. There is a need for more proactive recovery and rehabilitation measures. Managing to environmental limits is not sufficient, rather managing adaptive cycles is needed. Better measurement and management of water use efficiency is required. Proposed implementation packages are not sufficient to deliver desired water quality outcomes. Greater attention to targets important to environmental and recreational interests is needed to maintain trust in the collaborative process. Implementation programmes don’t adequately address climate change adaptations and greenhouse gas mitigation. Affordability is a constraint on adaptive capacity of farmers and communities. More funding mechanisms are required to implement proactive measures. The legislative and institutional framework needs to be changed to incorporate water framework legislation, regional sustainability strategies and water infrastructure coordination.

Keywords: collaborative governance, irrigation management, nested adaptive systems, sustainable water management

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Authors: Gökhan Altay, Cafer Kayadelen

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Rock fall is a movement of huge rock blocks from dip slopes due to physical effects. It generally occurs where loose tuffs lying under basalt flow or stringcourse is being constituted by limestone layers which stand on clay. By corrosion of some parts, big cracks occur on layers and these cracks continue to grow with the effect of freezing-thawing. In this way, the breaking rocks fall down from these dip slopes. Earthquakes which can induce lots of rock movements is another reason for rock fall events. In Turkey, we have a large number of regions prone to the earthquake as in the World so this increases the possibility of rock fall events. A great number of rock fall events take place in Turkey as in the World every year. The rock fall events occurring in urban areas cause serious damages in houses, roads and workplaces. Sometimes it also hinders transportation and furthermore it maybe kills people. In Turkey, rock fall events happen mostly in Spring and Winter because of freezing- thawing of water in rock cracks frequently. In mountain and inclined areas, rock fall is risky for engineering construction and environment. Some countries can invest significant money for these risky areas. For instance, in Switzerland, approximately 6.7 million dollars is spent annually for a distance of 4 km, to the systems to prevent rock fall events. In Turkey, we have lots of urban areas and engineering structure that have the rock fall risk. The embankments are preferable for rock fall events because of its low maintenance and repair costs. Also, embankments are able to absorb much more energy according to other protection systems. The current design method of embankments is only depended on field tests results so there are inadequate studies about this design method. In this paper, the field test modeled in three dimensions and analysis are carried out with the help of ANSYS programme. By the help of field test from literature the numerical model validated. After the validity of numerical models additional parametric studies performed. Changes in deformation of embankments are investigated by the changes in, geometry, velocity and impact height of falling rocks.

Keywords: ANSYS, embankment, impact height, numerical analysis, rock fall

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Authors: Seung Chul Lee, Jooyeong Kim, Ki Ok Ahn, Juok Park

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Background: Injuries caused by motorcycle crashes are one of the major public health burdens leading to high mortality, functional disability. The risk of death among motorcyclists is 30 times greater than that among car drivers, with head injuries the leading cause of death. The motorcycle helmet is crucial protective equipment for motorcyclists. Aims: This study aimed to measure the protective effect of motorcycle helmet use on intracranial injury and mortality and to compare the preventive effect in drivers and passengers. Methods: This is a cross-sessional study based on the Emergency Department (ED)–based Injury In-depth Surveillance (EDIIS) database from 23 EDs in Korea. All of the trauma patients injured in motorcycle crashes between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2016 were eligible, excluding cases with unknown helmet use and outcomes. The primary and secondary outcomes were intracranial injury and in-hospital mortality. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (AORs) of helmet use for study outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders. Using interaction models, we compared the protective effect of helmet use on outcomes across driving status (driver and passenger). Results: Among 17,791 eligible patients, 10,668 (60.0%) patients were wearing helmets at the time of the crash, 2,128 (12.0%) patients had intracranial injuries and 331 (1.9%) patients had in-hospital death. 16,381 (92.1%) patients were drivers and 1410 (7.9%) patients were passengers. 62.6% of drivers and 29.1% of passengers were wearing helmets at the time of the crash. Compared to un-helmeted group, the helmeted group was less likely to have an intracranial injury(8.0% vs. 17.9%, AOR: 0.43 (0.39-0.48)) and in-hospital mortality (1.0% vs. 3.2%, AOR: 0.29 (0.22-0.37)).In the interaction model, AORs (95% CIs) of helmet use for intracranial injury were 0.42 (0.38-0.47) in drivers and 0.61(0.41-0.90) in passengers, respectively. There was a significant preventive effect of helmet use on in-hospital mortality in drivers (AOR: 0.26(0.21–0.34)). Discussion and conclusions: Wearing helmets in motorcycle crashes reduced intracranial injuries and in-hospital mortality. The preventive effect of motorcycle helmet use on intracranial injury was stronger in drivers than in passengers. There was a significant preventive effect of helmet use on in-hospital mortality in driver but not in passengers. Public health efforts to increase motorcycle helmet use are needed to reduce health burden from injuries caused by motorcycle crashes.

Keywords: intracranial injury, helmet, mortality, motorcycle crashes

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Authors: José Luis Gallizo, Pilar Gargallo, Ramon Saladrigues, Manuel Salvador

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This study offers an exploratory statistical analysis of the persistence of annual profits across a sample of firms from different European Union (EU) countries. To this end, a hierarchical Bayesian dynamic model has been used which enables the annual behaviour of those profits to be broken down into a permanent structural and a transitory component, while also distinguishing between general effects affecting the industry as a whole to which each firm belongs and specific effects affecting each firm in particular. This breakdown enables the relative importance of those fundamental components to be more accurately evaluated by country and sector. Furthermore, Bayesian approach allows for testing different hypotheses about the homogeneity of the behaviour of the above components with respect to the sector and the country where the firm develops its activity. The data analysed come from a sample of 23,293 firms in EU countries selected from the AMADEUS data-base. The period analysed ran from 1999 to 2007 and 21 sectors were analysed, chosen in such a way that there was a sufficiently large number of firms in each country sector combination for the industry effects to be estimated accurately enough for meaningful comparisons to be made by sector and country. The analysis has been conducted by sector and by country from a Bayesian perspective, thus making the study more flexible and realistic since the estimates obtained do not depend on asymptotic results. In general terms, the study finds that, although the industry effects are significant, more important are the firm specific effects. That importance varies depending on the sector or the country in which the firm carries out its activity. The influence of firm effects accounts for around 81% of total variation and display a significantly lower degree of persistence, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 34%. However, this pattern is not homogeneous but depends on the sector and country analysed. Industry effects depends also on sector and country analysed have a more marginal importance, being significantly more persistent, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 7-8% with this degree of persistence being very similar for most of sectors and countries analysed.

Keywords: dynamic models, Bayesian inference, MCMC, abnormal returns, persistence of profits, return on assets

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Authors: Moshe Wasserblat, Jonathan Mamou, Oren Pereg

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Natural Language Processing (NLP) has made a major leap in the last few years, in practical integration into medical solutions; for example, extracting clinical concepts from medical texts such as medical condition, medication, treatment, and symptoms. However, training and deploying those models in real environments still demands a large amount of annotated data and NLP/Machine Learning (ML) expertise, which makes this process costly and time-consuming. We present a practical and efficient method for clinical concept extraction that does not require costly labeled data nor ML expertise. The method includes three steps: Step 1- the user injects a large in-domain text corpus (e.g., PubMed). Then, the system builds a contextual model containing vector representations of concepts in the corpus, in an unsupervised manner (e.g., Phrase2Vec). Step 2- the user provides a seed set of terms representing a specific medical concept (e.g., for the concept of the symptoms, the user may provide: ‘dry mouth,’ ‘itchy skin,’ and ‘blurred vision’). Then, the system matches the seed set against the contextual model and extracts the most semantically similar terms (e.g., additional symptoms). The result is a complete set of terms related to the medical concept. Step 3 –in production, there is a need to extract medical concepts from the unseen medical text. The system extracts key-phrases from the new text, then matches them against the complete set of terms from step 2, and the most semantically similar will be annotated with the same medical concept category. As an example, the seed symptom concepts would result in the following annotation: “The patient complaints on fatigue [symptom], dry skin [symptom], and Weight loss [symptom], which can be an early sign for Diabetes.” Our evaluations show promising results for extracting concepts from medical corpora. The method allows medical analysts to easily and efficiently build taxonomies (in step 2) representing their domain-specific concepts, and automatically annotate a large number of texts (in step 3) for classification/summarization of medical reports.

Keywords: clinical concepts, concept expansion, medical records annotation, medical records summarization

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Authors: Alemayehu Muluneh, Saskia Keesstra, Leo Stroosnijder, Woldeamlak Bewket, Ashenafi Burka

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There are some scientific evidences and a belief by many that forests attract rain and deforestation contributes to a decline of rainfall. However, there is still a lack of concrete scientific evidence on the role of forests in rainfall amount. In this paper, we investigate the forest-rainfall relationships in the environmentally hot spot area of the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. Specifically, we evaluate long term (1970-2009) rainfall variability and its relationship with historical forest cover and the relationship between existing forest cover and topographical variables and rainfall distribution. The study used 16 long term and 15 short term rainfall stations. The Mann-Kendall test, bi variate and multiple regression models were used. The results show forest and wood land cover continuously declined over the 40 years period (1970-2009), but annual rainfall in the rift valley floor increased by 6.42 mm/year. But, on the escarpment and highlands, annual rainfall decreased by 2.48 mm/year. The increase in annual rainfall in the rift valley floor is partly attributable to the increase in evaporation as a result of increasing temperatures from the 4 existing lakes in the rift valley floor. Though, annual rainfall is decreasing on the escarpment and highlands, there was no significant correlation between this rainfall decrease and forest and wood land decline and also rainfall variability in the region was not explained by forest cover. Hence, the decrease in annual rainfall on the escarpment and highlands is likely related to the global warming of the atmosphere and the surface waters of the Indian Ocean. Spatial variability of number of rainy days from systematically observed two-year’s rainfall data (2012-2013) was significantly (R2=-0.63) explained by forest cover (distance from forest). But, forest cover was not a significant variable (R2=-0.40) in explaining annual rainfall amount. Generally, past deforestation and existing forest cover showed very little effect on long term and short term rainfall distribution, but a significant effect on number of rainy days in the CRV of Ethiopia.

Keywords: elevation, forest cover, rainfall, slope

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Authors: Pei-Chih Wu, Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Hsien-Chang Wang

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The impact of climate change to health has always been well documented. Amongst them, water-borne infectious diseases, chronic adverse effects or cancer risks due to chemical contamination in flooding or drought events are especially important in river basin. This study therefore utilizes GIS and different models to integrate demographic, land use, disaster prevention, social-economic factors, and human health assessment in the Erren River basin. Therefore, through the collecting of climatic, demographic, health surveillance, water quality and other water monitoring data, potential risks associated with the Erren River Basin are established and to understand human exposure and vulnerability in response to climate extremes. This study assesses the temporal and spatial patterns of melioidosis (2000-2015) and various cancer incidents in Tainan and Kaohsiung cities. The next step is to analyze the spatial association between diseases incidences, climatic factors, land uses, and other demographic factors by using ArcMap and GeoDa. The study results show that amongst all melioidosis cases in Taiwan, 24% cases (115) residence occurred in the Erren River basin. The relationship between the cases and in Tainan and Kaohsiung cities are associated with population density, aging indicator, and residence in Erren River basin. Risks from flooding due to heavy rainfall and fish farms in spatial lag regression are also related. Through liver cancer, the preliminary analysis in temporal and spatial pattern shows an increases pattern in annual incidence without clusters in Erren River basin. Further analysis of potential cancers connected to heavy metal contamination from water pollution in Erren River is established. The final step is to develop an assessment tool for human exposure from water contamination and vulnerability in response to climate extremes for the second year.

Keywords: climate change, health impact, health adaptation, Erren River Basin

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Authors: Christoph Ostermair

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We deal with the effect of correlation between prospects on human decision making under uncertainty as proposed by the comparatively new and promising model of “salience theory of choice under risk”. In this regard, we show that the theory entails the prediction that the inconsistency of choices, known as the Allais paradox, should not be an issue in the context of “real-life decision making”, which typically corresponds to situations of subjective uncertainty. The Allais paradox, probably the best-known anomaly regarding expected utility theory, would then essentially have no practical relevance. If, however, empiricism contradicts this prediction, salience theory might suffer a serious setback. Explanations of the model for variable human choice behavior are mostly the result of a particular mechanism that does not come to play under perfect correlation. Hence, if it turns out that correlation between prospects – as typically found in real-world applications – does not influence human decision making in the expected way, this might to a large extent cost the theory its explanatory power. The empirical literature regarding the Allais paradox under subjective uncertainty is so far rather moderate. Beyond that, the results are hard to maintain as an argument, as the presentation formats commonly employed, supposably have generated so-called event-splitting effects, thereby distorting subjects’ choice behavior. In our own incentivized experimental study, we control for such effects by means of two different choice settings. We find significant event-splitting effects in both settings, thereby supporting the suspicion that the so far existing empirical results related to Allais paradoxes under subjective uncertainty may not be able to answer the question at hand. Nevertheless, we find that the basic tendency behind the Allais paradox, which is a particular switch of the preference relation due to a modified common consequence, shared by two prospects, is still existent both under an event-splitting and a coalesced presentation format. Yet, the modal choice pattern is in line with the prediction of salience theory. As a consequence, the effect of correlation, as proposed by the model, might - if anything - only weaken the systematic choice pattern behind the Allais paradox.

Keywords: Allais paradox, common consequence effect, models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, salience theory

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Authors: Shimhanda M. N., Mogomotsi P. K., Thakadu O. T., Rutina L. P.

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Wildlife tourism (WT) in communal conservancies has the potential to contribute significantly to sustainable rural development. However, understanding local perceptions, promoting participation, and addressing stakeholder concerns are all required for sustainability. This study looks at stakeholder perceptions of WT in conservancies near protected areas in Namibia's Zambezi region, specifically the Mudumu North Complex. A mixed-methods approach was employed to collect data from 356 households using stratified sampling. Qualitative data was gathered through six focus group discussions and 22 key informant interviews. Quantitative analysis, using descriptive statistics and Spearman correlation, investigated socio-demographic influences on WT perceptions, while qualitative data were subjected to thematic analysis to identify key themes. Results revealed high awareness and generally positive perceptions of WT, particularly in Mashi Conservancy, which benefits from diverse tourism activities and joint ventures with lodges. Kwandu and Kyaramacan, which rely heavily on consumptive tourism, had lower awareness and perceived benefits. Human-wildlife conflict emerged as a persistent issue, especially in Kwandu and Mashi, where crop damage and wildlife interference undermined community support for WT. Younger, more educated, and employed individuals held more positive attitudes towards WT. The study highlights the importance of recognising community heterogeneity and tailoring WT strategies to meet diverse needs, including HWC mitigation. Policy implications include increasing community engagement, ensuring equitable benefit distribution, and implementing inclusive tourism strategies that promote long-term sustainability. These findings are critical for developing long-term WT models that address local challenges, encourage community participation, and contribute to socioeconomic development and conservation goals.

Keywords: sustainable tourism, stakeholder perceptions, community involvement, socio-economic development

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Authors: Sabina-Adriana Floria, Marius Gavrilescu, Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu, Costel Anton

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Neuroevolution is a subfield of artificial intelligence used to solve various problems in different application areas. Specifically, neuroevolution is a technique that applies biologically inspired methods to generate neural network architectures and optimize their parameters automatically. In this paper, we use different biologically inspired optimization algorithms in an ensemble strategy with the aim of training multilayer perceptron neural networks, resulting in regression models used to simulate the industrial chemical process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials. Installations in the raw ceramics industry, i.e., bricks, are characterized by significant energy consumption and large quantities of emissions. In addition, the initial conditions that were taken into account during the design and commissioning of the installation can change over time, which leads to the need to add new mixes to adjust the operating conditions for the desired purpose, e.g., material properties and energy saving. The present approach follows the study by simulation of a process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials, i.e., the modeling and optimization of the process. Optimization aims to determine the working conditions that minimize the emissions represented by nitrogen monoxide. We first use a search procedure to find the best values for the parameters of various biologically inspired optimization algorithms. Then, we propose an adaptive ensemble strategy that uses only a subset of the best algorithms identified in the search stage. The adaptive ensemble strategy combines the results of selected algorithms and automatically assigns more processing capacity to the more efficient algorithms. Their efficiency may also vary at different stages of the optimization process. In a given ensemble iteration, the most efficient algorithms aim to maintain good convergence, while the less efficient algorithms can improve population diversity. The proposed adaptive ensemble strategy outperforms the individual optimizers and the non-adaptive ensemble strategy in convergence speed, and the obtained results provide lower error values.

Keywords: optimization, biologically inspired algorithm, neuroevolution, ensembles, bricks, emission minimization

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