Search results for: regional panel data model

Authors: C. Patrascioiu, V. Matei, N. Nicolae

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The paper describes the experiments and the kinetic parameters calculus of the gasoil hydrofining. They are presented experimental results of gasoil hidrofining using Mo and promoted with Ni on aluminum support catalyst. The authors have adapted a kinetic model gasoil hydrofining. Using this proposed kinetic model and the experimental data they have calculated the parameters of the model. The numerical calculus is based on minimizing the difference between the experimental sulf concentration and kinetic model estimation.

Keywords: hydrofining, kinetic, modeling, optimization

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Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir

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The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.

Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD

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Authors: Mina Jafari, Kobra Hamraee, Saied Hossein Hosseini

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The prediction of breast cancer disease is one of the challenges in medicine. In this paper we collected 528 records of women’s information who live in Kabul including demographic, life style, diet and pregnancy data. There are many classification algorithm in breast cancer prediction and tried to find the best model with most accurate result and lowest error rate. We evaluated some other common supervised algorithms in data mining to find the best model in prediction of breast cancer disease among afghan women living in Kabul regarding to momography result as target variable. For evaluating these algorithms we used Cross Validation which is an assured method for measuring the performance of models. After comparing error rate and accuracy of three models: Decision Tree, Naive Bays and Rule Induction, Decision Tree with accuracy of 94.06% and error rate of %15 is found the best model to predicting breast cancer disease based on the health care records.

Keywords: decision tree, breast cancer, probability, data mining

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Authors: Priti Bajpai, Mohammed Shibil

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This paper utilizes a comparative case study design to examine a regional onion market. The particular case of onion markets is used to understand perishable product supply chains. The site for the study is Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Results from a six-month field study are outlined. In particular, the findings suggest that firms should examine adding additional destinations to their supply chain. Further, we argue that utilizing Dubai as a supply chain hub is in certain cases counterproductive. Implications for food supply chains and regional trade are discussed.

Keywords: supply chains, food markets, onion trade, field study

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Authors: Endalew Fufa Kufi

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Every married person aspires to be a parent regardless of the situation in which s/he lives. Such aspiration meets with reality when the destined parent is able to give adequate supports and services to his/her children, whether the latter are got by birth or through adoption. The adequacy of services parents provide their children is both enriched and tempted by the work on which they involve. On the one hand, parents need to work and earn a living in order to support their family. On the other hand, they must spend most of their time outside home to do the work, which shortens the time and might they spare to care for their children. Where the sufficiency of services parents owe their children could be ascertained by in terms of life skills, physical care and related provisions, the role of working fathers and mothers in providing such supports could be diverse across cultures and work traditions. Hence, this research deals with the investigation of working mothers’ parental practices, challenges they face in providing parental services and the implication for the future progress of the parents and their children. Target of the study will be Arsi University in Oromia Regional State of Ethiopia. Descriptive survey design in holding the research, and data for the research will be collected in the form of experiential self-report from 150 working mothers selected from the entire working women population of Colleges of Agriculture and Environmental Studies and College of Health Sciences through stratified random-sampling. Instruments of data collection will be closed and open-ended questionnaire. Complementary data will also be collected from purposively selected samples through semi-structured interview. Data for the research will be collected through questionnaire first and then through interview. Data analysis will also follow the same procedure. The collected data will systematically be organized and statistically and thematically analyzed in order to come up with indicative findings. The overarching thesis is that, working mothers in the study area bear a lot of responsibilities both at home and at work place which leave them very little time for parenting services. Unless due attention is given to the way they can spare time for their children, they are more likely to be tense between work-life and family care services, which tempt them in different directions.

Keywords: challenges, mothers, practices, university, working

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Authors: Tapiwa Shumba, Nyaradzo D. T. Karubwa

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Dispute resolution is the plinth of regional integration initiatives anchored on the rule of law and compliance with obligations. Without effective and reliable despite resolution mechanisms, it may be difficult to foster deeper integration. Within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) legal and institutional framework exists an apparent recognition that dispute resolution is an integral part of the regional integration. Almost all legal instruments of SADC include some provision for dispute resolution. Institutionally, the somewhat now defunct SADC Tribunal is meant to be the fulcrum for resolving disputes that arise under SADC instruments. However, after a closer analysis of the substance of these legal provisions and the attendant procedural mechanisms for addressing disputes, an argument can be made that dispute resolution in SADC is somewhat scant, fragmented and neglected. In most instruments, the common provision on dispute resolution appears to be a ‘mid-night clause’. In other instruments which have specialised provisions and procedures, questions of practicality and genius cannot be avoided. Worse still there now appears to be a lack of magnanimity between the substantive provisions in various instruments and the role of the transformed Tribunal. This scant, fragmented and neglected dispute resolution system may have an impact on the observance of the rule of law and compliance with obligations in the rules-based SADC system. This all, in turn, has an effect on the common agenda for deeper regional integration. This article seeks to expose this scant, fragmented and neglected SADC dispute resolution system and to propose a harmonised system that addresses these challenges. A ‘one stop shop’ system under a strengthened SADC tribunal is proposed as a responsive solution.

Keywords: regional integration, harmonisation, SADC tribunal, dispute resolution

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Authors: Jan Stodt, Christoph Reich

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The usage of machine learning models for prediction is growing rapidly and proof that the intended requirements are met is essential. Audits are a proven method to determine whether requirements or guidelines are met. However, machine learning models have intrinsic characteristics, such as the quality of training data, that make it difficult to demonstrate the required behavior and make audits more challenging. This paper describes an ML audit framework that evaluates and reviews the risks of machine learning applications, the quality of the training data, and the machine learning model. We evaluate and demonstrate the functionality of the proposed framework by auditing an steel plate fault prediction model.

Keywords: audit, machine learning, assessment, metrics

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Authors: Nila Febri Wilujeng, Helda Risman

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Enjoying stable security within its region for the last 50 years, ASEAN nowadays contends with the global context emerging dynamically, which brings about multidimensional challenges and threats such as terrorism, radicalism, armed rebellion, hijacking, and other non-traditional threats. Dealing with these circumstances, ASEAN member states tighten its capacity by enhancing regional cooperation and strategic information exchange among ASEAN member states so-called ASEAN Our Eyes. This initiative adopted for the sake of forestalling any possible threat posed by violent extremism, radicalization, and terrorism through timely strategic information exchange among ASEAN member states. By using qualitative method, this paper will utilize regional security complex and international cooperation theories in analyzing the process to examine ASEAN Our Eyes based on its terms of reference. As a result, it portrays that ASEAN Our Eyes is able to undermine the gaps in the realm of strategic information exchange in monitoring the movement of violent extremism, radicalism, foreign terrorist fighters, and crime-terror nexus. However, it remains premature as a strategic measure to encounter those threats in the years to come.

Keywords: regional cooperation, counter-terrorism, ASEAN our eyes, strategic information exchange

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Authors: Irakli Manvelidze, Genadi Iashvili, Giga Phartenadze, Giorgi Katamadze

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Establishment of electronic governance in the region is facing serious problems. Organizational, technical, social and methodological problems have been identified after the research. These problems currently create serious barriers and prevent the development of effective e-governance. Lack of human resources, difference in program targets of the centre and the region, lack of citizens’ awareness about the project of electronic governance are other issues that should be mentioned. In spite of positive changes the overall situation concerning development of modern information-communication technologies in Adjara is not satisfactory. The information systems in the region can be described as transforming in a democratic way which needs serious reforms. Current situation shows that unsystematic, uncoordinated actions were made which overall represents more chaotic rather than coordinated systematic process. Therefore, a strategic document ‘Adjarian Electronic Government’ should be created which will ensure systematic development of electronic governance in the region. The implementation of the strategy of ‘Adjarian Electronic Government’ should be based on not only conceptual and instrumental but also legal basics. A legal normative basis should be created which will include formation of electronic government’s instrumental basis as well as creation of united regional system of electronic document management. Meanwhile types of documents which would be used in inter institutional relations should be defined under a legal norm. Creation of regional united system of e-filing will regulate regional public institutions, relations between local self-government and public organizations as well as it will ensure coordinated work of all regional public institutions.

Keywords: e-government, information society, public administration, reforming state governance, public institutions

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Authors: Nicholas Agyepong, Paul Gyan

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Inappropriate prescribing of antibiotic is a common healthcare concern globally resulted in an increased risk of adverse reactions and the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. The wrong antibiotic prescribing habits may lead to ineffective and unsafe treatment, worsening of disease condition, and thus increase in health care costs. The study was to examine the antibiotic prescribing pattern and associated risk factors at Regional Hospital in the Bono region of Ghana. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted to describe the current prescribing practices at the Hospital from January 2014 to December, 2021. A systematic random sampling method was used to select the participants for the study. STATA version 16 software was used for data management and analysis. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the data. Statistical significance set at p<0.05. Antibiotic consumption was equivalent to 11 per 1000 inhabitants consuming 1 DDD per day. Most common prescribed antibiotic was amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (14.39%) followed by erythromycin (11.44%), and ciprofloxacin (11.36%). Antibiotics prescription have been steadily increased over the past eight years (2014: n=59,280 to 2021: n=190,320). Prescribers above the age of 35 were more likely to prescribe antibiotics than those between the ages of 20 and 25 (COR=21.00; 95% CI: 1.78 – 48.10; p=0.016). Prescribers with at least 6 years of experience were also significantly more likely to prescribe antibiotics than those with at most 5 years of experience (COR=14.17; 95% CI: 2.39 – 84.07; p=0.004). Thus, the establishment of an antibiotic stewardship program in the hospitals is imperative, and further studies need to be conducted in other facilities to establish the national antibiotic prescription guideline.

Keywords: antibiotic, antimicrobial resistance, prescription, prescribers

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Authors: Ekkehard Fehling, Paul Capewell

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In recent years, the importance of masonry glued by polyurethane adhesive has increased. In 2021, the Institute of Structural Engineering of the University of Kassel was commissioned to carry out quasi-static in-plane shear tests on prefabricated brick masonry panel systems with 2K PUR adhesive in order to investigate the load-bearing behavior during earthquakes. In addition to the usual measurement of deformations using displacement transducers, all tests were documented using an optical measuring system (“GOM”), which was used to determine the surface strains and deformations of the test walls. To compare the results with conventional mortar walls, additional reference tests were carried out on test specimens with thin-bed mortar joints. This article summarizes the results of the test program and provides a comparison between the load-bearing behavior of masonry bonded with polyurethane adhesive and thin bed mortar in order to enable realistic non-linear modeling.

Keywords: masonry, shear tests, in-plane, polyurethane adhesive

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Authors: Innocent Pangapanga, Eric Mungatana

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Tropical cyclones–related floods (TCRFs) in Malawi have devastating effects on smallholder agriculture, thereby threatening the food security agenda, which is already constrained by poor agricultural innovations, low use of improved varieties, and unaffordable inorganic fertilizers, and fragmenting landholding sizes. Accordingly, households have engineered and indigenously implemented sustainable landscape management (SLM) innovations to contain the adverse effects of TCRFs on farm productivity. This study, therefore, interrogated the efficacy of SLM adoption on farm productivity under varying TCRFs, while controlling for the potential selection bias and unobservable heterogeneity through the application of the Endogenous Switching Regression Model. In this study, we further investigated factors driving SLM adoption. Substantively, we found TCRFs reducing farm productivity by 31 percent, on the one hand, and influencing the adoption of SLM innovations by 27 percent, on the other hand. The study also observed that households that interacted SLM with TCRFs were more likely to enhance farm productivity by 24 percent than their counterparts. Interestingly, the study results further demonstrated that multiple adoptions of SLM-related innovations, including intercropping, agroforestry, and organic manure, enhanced farm productivity by 126 percent, suggesting promoting SLM adoption as a package to appropriately inform existing sustainable development goals’ agricultural productivity initiatives under intensifying TCRFs in the country.

Keywords: tropical cyclones–related floods, sustainable landscape management innovations, farm productivity, endogeneity, endogenous switching regression model, panel data, smallholder agriculture

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Authors: Chukiat Chaiboonsri, Satawat Wannapan

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This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Keywords: TThailand tourism, Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach, macroeconomic model, asymmetric information

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Authors: Jason Ting Jing Cheng, Lee Foo Wei, Yew Ming Kun, Mo Kim Hung, Yip Chun Chieh

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This research delves into the structural characteristics of distinct construction material, rubberized lightweight foam concrete (RLFC) wall panels, which have been developed as a sustainable alternative for the construction industry. These panels are engineered with a RLFC core, possessing a density of 1150 kg/m3, which is specifically formulated to bear structural loads. The core is enveloped with high-strength fiber cement boards, selected for their superior load-bearing capabilities, and enhanced flexural strength when compared to conventional concrete. A thin bed adhesive, known as TPS, is employed to create a robust bond between the RLFC core and the fiber cement cladding. This study underscores the potential of RLFC wall panels as a viable and eco-friendly option for modern building construction, offering a combination of structural efficiency and environmental benefits.

Keywords: structural performance, rubberized concrete wall panel, fiber cement board, insulation performance

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Authors: Aymen Arfaoui, Abdelkader Soumaya, Noureddine Ben Ayed

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The Rouas-Ruissateis a part of TunisianAtlas system. Analyze of the collected field data allowed us to propose a new interpretation for the main structural features of thisregion. Tectonic inversions along NE-SW trending fault of Zaghouan and holokinetic movements are the main factors controlling the architecture and geometry of the Jebel Rouas-Ruissate. The presence of breccias, Slumps, and synsedimentaryfaults along NW-SE and N-S trending major faults show that they were active during the Mesozoicextensionalepisodes. During Cenozoic inversion period, this structurewas shaped as imbricatefansformed byNE-SW trending thrust faults. The angularunconformitybetweenupperEocene- Oligocene, and Cretaceousdeposits reveals a compressive Eocene tectonic phase (called Pyrenean phase)occurred duringPaleocene-lower Eocene.The Triassicsaltsacted as a decollementlevel in the NE-SW trendingfault propagation fold model of the Rouas-Ruissate.The inversion of fault-slip data along the main regional fault zones reveals a coexistence of strike-slip and reverse fault stress regimes with NW-SE maximum horizontal stress(SHmax) characterizing the Alpine compressive phase (Upper Tortonian).

Keywords: tunisia, imbricate fans, triassic decollement level, fault propagation fold

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Authors: Damien Gondre, Hatem Ben Maad, Abdelkrim Trabelsi, Frédéric Kuznik, Joseph Virgone

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The use of a radiant cooling solution would enable to lower cooling needs which is of great interest when the demand is initially high (hot climate). But, radiant systems are not naturally compatibles with humid climates since a low-temperature surface leads to condensation risks as soon as the surface temperature is close to or lower than the dew point temperature. A radiant cooling system combined to a dehumidification system would enable to remove humidity for the space, thereby lowering the dew point temperature. The humidity removal needs to be especially effective near the cooled surface. This requirement could be fulfilled by a system using a single desiccant fluid for the removal of both excessive heat and moisture. This task aims at providing an estimation of the specification requirements of such system in terms of cooling power and dehumidification rate required to fulfill comfort issues and to prevent any condensation risk on the cool panel surface. The present paper develops a preliminary study on the specification requirements, performances and behavior of a combined dehumidifier/cooling ceiling panel for different operating conditions. This study has been carried using the TRNSYS software which allows nodal calculations of thermal systems. It consists of the dynamic modeling of heat and vapor balances of a 5m x 3m x 2.7m office space. In a first design estimation, this room is equipped with an ideal heating, cooling, humidification and dehumidification system so that the room temperature is always maintained in between 21^◦C and 25^◦C with a relative humidity in between 40% and 60%. The room is also equipped with a ventilation system that includes a heat recovery heat exchanger and another heat exchanger connected to a heat sink. Main results show that the system should be designed to meet a cooling power of 42W.m⁻² and a desiccant rate of 45 g_H2O.h⁻¹. In a second time, a parametric study of comfort issues and system performances has been achieved on a more realistic system (that includes a chilled ceiling) under different operating conditions. It enables an estimation of an acceptable range of operating conditions. This preliminary study is intended to provide useful information for the system design.

Keywords: dehumidification, nodal calculation, radiant cooling panel, system sizing

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Authors: Olumuyiwa Ojo, Masengo Ilunga

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Artificial neural network (ANN) has broken the bounds of the convention programming, which is actually a function of garbage in garbage out by its ability to mimic the human brain. Its ability to adopt, adapt, adjust, evaluate, learn and recognize the relationship, behavior, and pattern of a series of data set administered to it, is tailored after the human reasoning and learning mechanism. Thus, the study aimed at modeling wastewater treatment process in order to accurately diagnose water control problems for effective treatment. For this study, a stage ANN model development and evaluation methodology were employed. The source data analysis stage involved a statistical analysis of the data used in modeling in the model development stage, candidate ANN architecture development and then evaluated using a historical data set. The model was developed using historical data obtained from Daspoort Wastewater Treatment plant South Africa. The resultant designed dimensions and model for wastewater treatment plant provided good results. Parameters considered were temperature, pH value, colour, turbidity, amount of solids and acidity. Others are total hardness, Ca hardness, Mg hardness, and chloride. This enables the ANN to handle and represent more complex problems that conventional programming is incapable of performing.

Keywords: ANN, artificial neural network, wastewater treatment, model, development

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Authors: B. Van Kessel, P. T. Kockelkorn, T. R. Speelman, T. C. Wierikx, C. Mai Van, T. A. Bogaard

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Saltwater intrusion is a common problem in estuaries around the world, as it could hinder the freshwater supply of coastal zones. This problem is likely to grow due to climate change and sea-level rise. The influence of these factors on the saltwater intrusion was investigated for the Cai River in the Khanh Hoa province in Vietnam. In addition, the Cai River has high seasonal fluctuations in discharge, leading to increased saltwater intrusion during the dry season. Sea level rise, river discharge changes, river mouth widening and a proposed saltwater intrusion prevention dam can have influences on the saltwater intrusion but have not been quantified for the Cai River estuary. This research used both an analytical and numerical model to investigate the effect of the aforementioned factors. The analytical model was based on a model proposed by Savenije and was calibrated using limited in situ data. The numerical model was a 3D hydrodynamic model made using the Delft3D4 software. The analytical model and numerical model agreed with in situ data, mostly for tidally average data. Both models indicated a roughly similar dependence on discharge, also agreeing that this parameter had the most severe influence on the modeled saltwater intrusion. Especially for discharges below 10 m/s3, the saltwater was predicted to reach further than 10 km. In the models, both sea-level rise and river widening mainly resulted in salinity increments up to 3 kg/m3 in the middle part of the river. The predicted sea-level rise in 2070 was simulated to lead to an increase of 0.5 km in saltwater intrusion length. Furthermore, the effect of the saltwater intrusion dam seemed significant in the model used, but only for the highest position of the gate.

Keywords: Cai River, hydraulic models, river discharge, saltwater intrusion, tidal barriers

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Authors: H. Ahmed, A. Schlenkhoff

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Recently, permeable breakwaters have been suggested to overcome the disadvantages of fully protection breakwaters. These protection structures have minor impacts on the coastal environment and neighboring beaches where they provide a more economical protection from waves and currents. For regular waves, a numerical model is used (FLOW-3D, VOF) to investigate the hydraulic performance of a permeable breakwater. The model of permeable breakwater consists of a pair of identical vertical slotted walls with an impermeable upper and lower part, where the draft is a decimal multiple of the total depth. The middle part is permeable with a porosity of 50%. The second barrier is located at distant of 0.5 and 1.5 of the water depth from the first one. The numerical model is validated by comparisons with previous laboratory data and semi-analytical results of the same model. A good agreement between the numerical results and both laboratory data and semi-analytical results has been shown and the results indicate the applicability of the numerical model to reproduce most of the important features of the interaction. Through the numerical investigation, the friction factor of the model is carefully discussed.

Keywords: coastal structures, permeable breakwater, slotted wall, numerical model, energy dissipation coefficient

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Authors: Gulnara Moldasheva

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The research explores the relationship between management responsibility and corporate governance of listed companies in Kazakhstan. This research employs firm level data of randomly selected listed non-financial firms and firm level data “operational” financial sector, consisted from banking sector, insurance companies and accumulated pension funds using multivariate regression analysis under fixed effect model approach. Ownership structure includes institutional ownership, managerial ownership and private investor’s ownership. Management responsibility of the firm is expressed by the decision of the firm on amount of leverage. Results of the cross sectional panel study for non-financial firms showed that only institutional shareholding is significantly negatively correlated with debt to equity ratio. Findings from “operational” financial sector show that leverage is significantly affected only by the CEO/Chair duality and the size of financial institutions, and insignificantly affected by ownership structure. Also, the findings show, that there is a significant negative relationship between profitability and the debt to equity ratio for non-financial firms, which is consistent with pecking order theory. Generally, the found results suggest that corporate governance and a management responsibility play important role in corporate performance of listed firms in Kazakhstan.

Keywords: ownership, corporate governance, debt to equity ratio, corporate performance

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Authors: Najeeb Hassan, Mahmudur Rahman

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Arial Khan River is one of the main south-eastward outlets of the River Padma. This river maintains a meander channel through its course and is erosional in nature. The specific objective of the research is to study and evaluate the hydrological characteristics in the form of assessing changes of cross-sections, discharge, water level and velocity profile in different stations and to create a hydrodynamic model of the Arial Khan River. Necessary data have been collected from Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) and Center for Environment and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS). Satellite images have been observed from Google earth. In this study, hydrodynamic model of Arial Khan River has been developed using well known steady open channel flow code Hydrologic Engineering Centers and River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) using field surveyed geometric data. Cross-section properties at 22 locations of River Arial Khan for the years 2011, 2013 and 2015 were also analysed. 1-D HEC-RAS model has been developed using the cross sectional data of 2015 and appropriate boundary condition is being used to run the model. This Arial Khan River model is calibrated using the pick discharge of 2015. The applicable value of Mannings roughness coefficient (n) is adjusted through the process of calibration. The value of water level which ties with the observed data to an acceptable accuracy is taken as calibrated model. The 1-D HEC-RAS model then validated by using the pick discharges from 2009-2018. Variation in observed water level in the model and collected water level data is being compared to validate the model. It is observed that due to seasonal variation, discharge of the river changes rapidly and Mannings roughness coefficient (n) also changes due to the vegetation growth along the river banks. This river model may act as a tool to measure flood area in future. By considering the past pick flow discharge, it is strongly recommended to improve the carrying capacity of Arial Khan River to protect the surrounding areas from flash flood.

Keywords: BWDB, CEGIS, HEC-RAS

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Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

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Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang

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This study established a mixed method model in assessing statistics learning with Bayesian network models. There are three variants in exploratory sequential designs. There are three linked steps in one of the designs: qualitative data collection and analysis, quantitative measure, instrument, intervention, and quantitative data collection analysis. The study used a scoring model of analysis of variance (ANOVA) as a content domain. The research study is to examine students’ learning in both semantic and performance aspects at fine grain level. The ANOVA score model, y = α+ βx1 + γx1+ ε, as a cognitive task to collect data during the student learning process. When the learning processes were decomposed into multiple steps in both semantic and performance aspects, a hierarchical Bayesian network was established. This is a theory-driven process. The hierarchical structure was gained based on qualitative cognitive analysis. The data from students’ ANOVA score model learning was used to give evidence to the hierarchical Bayesian network model from the evidential variables. Finally, the assessment results of students’ ANOVA score model learning were reported. Briefly, this was a mixed method research design applied to statistics learning assessment. The mixed methods designs expanded more possibilities for researchers to establish advanced quantitative models initially with a theory-driven qualitative mode.

Keywords: exploratory sequential design, ANOVA score model, Bayesian network model, mixed methods research design, cognitive analysis

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Authors: Ishmael Tingbani

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This paper adopts a contingency theory approach to investigate the relationship between working capital management and profitability using data of 225 listed British firms on the London Stock Exchange for the period 2001-2011. The paper employs a panel data analysis on a series of interactive models to estimate this relationship. The findings of the study confirm the relevance of the contingency theory. Evidence from the study suggests that the impact of working capital management on profitability varies and is constrained by organizational contingencies (environment, resources, and management factors) of the firm. These findings have implications for a more balanced and nuanced view of working capital management policy for policy-makers.

Keywords: working capital management, profitability, contingency theory approach, interactive models

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Authors: Premjit K. Sanjram, Gagan Jakhotiya, Apoorv Goyal, Shanu Shukla

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In psychological research, laboratory experiments often face the trade-off issue between experimental control and mundane realism. With the advent of Immersive Virtual Environment Technology (IVET), this issue seems to be at bay. However there is a growing challenge within the IVET itself to design and develop system or software that captures the psychological phenomenon of everyday lives. One such phenomena that is of growing interest is ‘media-multitasking’ To aid laboratory researches in media-multitasking this paper introduces Query Task Modulator (QTM), a computerized experimentation system to study media-multitasking behavior in a controlled laboratory environment. The system provides a computerized platform in conducting an experiment for experimenters to study media-multitasking in which participants will be involved in a query task. The system has Instant Messaging, E-mail, and Voice Call features. The answers to queries are provided on the left hand side information panel where participants have to search for it and feed the information in the respective communication media blocks as fast as possible. On the whole the system will collect multitasking behavioral data. To analyze performance there is a separate output table that records the reaction times and responses of the participants individually. Information panel and all the media blocks will appear on a single window in order to ensure multi-modality feature in media-multitasking and equal emphasis on all the tasks (thus avoiding prioritization to a particular task). The paper discusses the development of QTM in the light of current techniques of studying media-multitasking.

Keywords: experimentation system, human performance, media-multitasking, query-task

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Authors: Nur Azreena Idris, Soh Kheang Loh, Harrison Lau Lik Nang, Yuen May Choo, Eminour Muzalina Mustafa, Vijaysri Vello, Cheng Yau Tan, Siew Moi Phang

Abstract:

It is estimated that about 0.65-0.67 m3 of palm oil mill effluent (POME) is generated when one tonne of fresh fruit bunches is processed. Owning to the high content of nutrients in POME, it has high potential as a medium for microalgae growth. This study attempted determining the growth rate, biomass productivity and biochemical composition of microalgae (Chlorella sp.) grown in different POME concentrations i.e. 6.25%, 12.5%, 25% and 50% at outdoor conditions using a 200-mL capacity high rate algae pond (HRAP) and 2 closed photobioreactors (PBRs) i.e. annular and flat panel. The strain, Chlorella sp. grown on 12.5% of POME in flat panel PBR exhibited the highest specific growth rate of 0.32/day and biomass productivity (27.1 mg/L/day) followed by those in HRAP and annular PBR. It further showed that a good growth of Chlorella sp. in 12.5% of POME could sufficiently reduce the nutrients of POME such as phosphate (PO4), nitrate (NO3), nitrite (NO2) and chemical oxygen demand (COD). The extracted algal oil from POME culture showed that the saturated fatty acids decreased while polyunsaturated fatty acids increased compared to those cultured in standard culture medium (Bold’s Basal medium). The biochemical compositions of the algae grown in flat panel PBR were the highest with lipid, protein and carbohydrate productivity of 17.91 mg/L/day, 34.65 mg/L/day and 21.44 mg/L/day, respectively. The microalgae cultivation in diluted POME had not only shown potential as biodiesel feedstock based on the fatty acids profile but also the ability to reduce pollutants e.g. PO4, NO3, NO2 and COD in biological wastewater treatment.

Keywords: wastewater treatment, photobioreactors, biomass productivity, specific growth rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Abdellatif Chebboub

Abstract:

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

Keywords: climate change, agriculture, weather change, danger of climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: K. A. Adeleke

Abstract:

Often in epidemiological research, introducing stratified Cox model can account for the existence of interactions of some inherent factors with some major/noticeable factors. This research work aimed at modelling correlated variables in infant mortality with the existence of some inherent factors affecting the infant survival function. An alternative semiparametric Stratified Cox model is proposed with a view to take care of multilevel factors that have interactions with others. This, however, was used as a tool to model infant mortality data from Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) with some multilevel factors (Tetanus, Polio, and Breastfeeding) having correlation with main factors (Sex, Size, and Mode of Delivery). Asymptotic properties of the estimators are also studied via simulation. The tested model via data showed good fit and performed differently depending on the levels of the interaction of the strata variable Z*. An evidence that the baseline hazard functions and regression coefficients are not the same from stratum to stratum provides a gain in information as against the usage of Cox model. Simulation result showed that the present method produced better estimates in terms of bias, lower standard errors, and or mean square errors.

Keywords: stratified Cox, semiparametric model, infant mortality, multilevel factors, cofounding variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 555

Authors: Mayada Al Meghari

Abstract:

Recently, grid middlewares have provided large integrated use of network resources as the shared data and the CPU to become a virtual supercomputer. In this work, we present the design and implementation of the middleware for Data Warehouse Signature, DWS Framework. The aim of using the middleware in our DWS framework is to achieve the high performance by the parallel computing. This middleware is developed on Alchemi.Net framework to increase the security among the network nodes through the authentication and group-key distribution model. This model achieves the key security and prevents any intermediate attacks in the middleware. This paper presents the flow process structures of the middleware design. In addition, the paper ensures the implementation of security for DWS middleware enhancement with the authentication and group-key distribution model. Finally, from the analysis of other middleware approaches, the developed middleware of DWS framework is the optimal solution of a complete covering of security issues.

Keywords: middleware, parallel computing, data warehouse, security, group-key, high performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Yudhajit Datta

Abstract:

Will is a phenomenon that has puzzled humanity for a long time. It is a belief that Will Power of an individual affects the success achieved by an individual in life. It is thought that a person endowed with great will power can overcome even the most crippling setbacks of life while a person with a weak will cannot make the most of life even the greatest assets. Behavioral aspects of the human experience such as will are rarely subjected to quantitative study owing to the numerous uncontrollable parameters involved. This work is an attempt to subject the phenomena of will to the test of an artificial neural network. The claim being tested is that will power of an individual largely determines success achieved in life. In the study, an attempt is made to incorporate the behavioral phenomenon of will into a computational model using data pertaining to the success of individuals obtained from an experiment. A neural network is to be trained using data based upon part of the model, and subsequently used to make predictions regarding will corresponding to data points of success. If the prediction is in agreement with the model values, the model is to be retained as a candidate. Ultimately, the best-fit model from among the many different candidates is to be selected, and used for studying the correlation between success and will.

Keywords: will power, will, success, apathy factor, random factor, characteristic function, life story

Procedia PDF Downloads 377