Search results for: prediction method

Authors: Siham G. Farag

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The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T- intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: accidents prediction models (APMs), generalized linear model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman

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Authors: Y. Galerkin, A. Rekstin, K. Soldatova

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Universal modeling method well proven for industrial compressors was applied for design of the high flow rate supersonic stage. Results were checked by ANSYS CFX and NUMECA Fine Turbo calculations. The impeller appeared to be very effective at transonic flow velocities. Stator elements efficiency is acceptable at design Mach numbers too. Their loss coefficient versus inlet flow angle performances correlates well with Universal modeling prediction. The impeller demonstrated ability of satisfactory operation at design flow rate. Supersonic flow behavior in the impeller inducer at the shroud blade to blade surface Φdes deserves additional study.

Keywords: centrifugal compressor stage, supersonic impeller, inlet flow angle, loss coefficient, return channel, shock wave, vane diffuser

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Authors: Şeyma Özçirak Ergün, Ergün Şakalar, Emrah Yalazi̇, Nebahat Şahi̇n

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Food irradiation is a usage of exposing food to ionising radiation (IR) such as gamma rays. IR has been used to decrease the number of harmful microorganisms in the food such as spices. Excessive usage of IR can cause damage to both food and people who consuming food. And also it causes to damages on food DNA. Generally, IR detection techniques were utilized in literature for spices are Electron Spin Resonance (ESR), Thermos Luminescence (TL). Storage creates negative effect on IR detection method then analyses of samples have been performed without storage in general. In the experimental part, red pepper (Capsicum annuum) and mint (Mentha piperita) as spices were exposed to 0, 0.272, 0.497, 1.06, 3.64, 8.82, and 17.42 kGy ionize radiation. ESR was applied to samples irradiated. DNA isolation from irradiated samples was performed using GIDAGEN Multi Fast DNA isolation kit. The DNA concentration was measured using a microplate reader spectrophotometer (Infinite® 200 PRO-Life Science–Tecan). The concentration of each DNA was adjusted to 50 ng/µL. Genomic DNA was imaged by UV transilluminator (Gel Doc XR System, Bio-Rad) for the estimation of genomic DNA bp-fragment size after IR. Thus, agarose gel profiles of irradiated spices were obtained to determine the change of band profiles. Besides, samples were examined at three different time periods (0, 3, 6 months storage) to show the feasibility of developed method. Results of gel electrophoresis showed especially degradation of DNA of irradiated samples. In conclusion, this study with gel electrophoresis can be used as a basis for the identification of the dose of irradiation by looking at degradation profiles at specific amounts of irradiation. Agarose gel results of irradiated samples were confirmed with ESR analysis. This method can be applied widely to not only food products but also all biological materials containing DNA to predict radiation-induced damage of DNA.

Keywords: DNA, electrophoresis, gel electrophoresis, ionizeradiation

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Authors: Bojan Najdenov, Danco Davcev

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Reduction of traffic congestions and the effects of pollution and waste of resources that come with them has been a big challenge in the past decades. Having reliable systems to facilitate the process of modeling and prediction of traffic conditions would not only reduce the environmental pollution, but will also save people time and money. Social networks play big role of people’s lives nowadays providing them means of communicating and sharing thoughts and ideas, that way generating huge knowledge bases by crowdsourcing. In addition to that, crowdsourcing as a concept provides mechanisms for fast and relatively reliable data generation and also many services are being used on regular basis because they are mainly powered by the public as main content providers. In this paper we present the Social-NETS-Traffic-Control System (SNTCS) that should serve as a facilitator in the process of modeling and prediction of traffic congestions. The main contribution of our system is to integrate data from social networks as Twitter and also implements a custom created crowdsourcing subsystem with which users report traffic conditions using an android application. Our first experience of the usage of the system confirms that the integrated approach allows easy extension of the system with other social networks and represents a very useful tool for traffic control.

Keywords: traffic, congestion reduction, crowdsource, social networks, twitter, android

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Authors: Amartya Hatua, Trung Nguyen, Andrew Sung

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In this paper, we study the information diffusion process on Twitter as a multivariate time series problem. Our model concerns three measures (volume, network influence, and sentiment of tweets) based on 10 features, and we collected 27 million tweets to build our information diffusion time series dataset for analysis. Then, different time series clustering techniques with Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance were used to identify different patterns of information diffusion. Finally, we built the information diffusion prediction models for new hashtags which comprise two phrases: The first phrase is recognizing the pattern using k-NN with DTW distance; the second phrase is building the forecasting model using the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the non-linear recurrent neural network of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Preliminary results of performance evaluation between different forecasting models show that LSTM with clustering information notably outperforms other models. Therefore, our approach can be applied in real-world applications to analyze and predict the information diffusion characteristics of selected topics or memes (hashtags) in Twitter.

Keywords: ARIMA, DTW, information diffusion, LSTM, RNN, time series clustering, time series forecasting, Twitter

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Authors: Sung-Sik Park, Han Chang, Kyung-Hun Chae, Sae-Byeok Lee

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In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) Particle method without using grid was developed for analyzing large deformation of soils instead of using ordinary finite element method (FEM) or finite difference method (FDM). In the 3D Particle method, the governing equations were discretized by various particle interaction models corresponding to differential operators such as gradient, divergence, and Laplacian. The Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion was incorporated into the 3D Particle method to determine soil failure. The yielding and hardening behavior of soil before failure was also considered by varying viscosity of soil. First of all, an unconfined compression test was carried out and the large deformation following soil yielding or failure was simulated by the developed 3D Particle method. The results were also compared with those of a commercial FEM software PLAXIS 3D. The developed 3D Particle method was able to simulate the 3D large deformation of soils due to soil yielding and calculate the variation of normal and shear stresses following clay deformation.

Keywords: particle method, large deformation, soil column, confined compressive stress

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Authors: Arunas Burinskas, Aurelija Burinskiene

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On average, ten percent of drugs - commercial products are not available in pharmacies due to shortage. The shortage event disbalance sales and requires a recovery period, which is too long. Therefore, one of the critical issues that pharmacies do not record potential sales transactions during shortage and recovery periods. The authors suggest estimating outliers during shortage and recovery periods. To shorten the recovery period, the authors suggest using average sales per sales day prediction, which helps to protect the data from being downwards or upwards. Authors use the outlier’s visualization method across different drugs and apply the Grubbs test for significance evaluation. The researched sample is 100 drugs in a one-month time frame. The authors detected that high demand variability products had outliers. Among analyzed drugs, which are commercial products i) High demand variability drugs have a one-week shortage period, and the probability of facing a shortage is equal to 69.23%. ii) Mid demand variability drugs have three days shortage period, and the likelihood to fall into deficit is equal to 34.62%. To avoid shortage events and minimize the recovery period, real data must be set up. Even though there are some outlier detection methods for drug data cleaning, they have not been used for the minimization of recovery period once a shortage has occurred. The authors use Grubbs’ test real-life data cleaning method for outliers’ adjustment. In the paper, the outliers’ adjustment method is applied with a confidence level of 99%. In practice, the Grubbs’ test was used to detect outliers for cancer drugs and reported positive results. The application of the Grubbs’ test is used to detect outliers which exceed boundaries of normal distribution. The result is a probability that indicates the core data of actual sales. The application of the outliers’ test method helps to represent the difference of the mean of the sample and the most extreme data considering the standard deviation. The test detects one outlier at a time with different probabilities from a data set with an assumed normal distribution. Based on approximation data, the authors constructed a framework for scaling potential sales and estimating outliers with Grubbs’ test method. The suggested framework is applicable during the shortage event and recovery periods. The proposed framework has practical value and could be used for the minimization of the recovery period required after the shortage of event occurrence.

Keywords: drugs, Grubbs' test, outlier, shortage event

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Authors: Nur Rokhman

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A mathematical function gives relationship between the variables composing the function. Interpolation can be viewed as a process of finding mathematical function which goes through some specified points. There are many interpolation methods, namely: Lagrange method, Newton method, Spline method etc. For some specific condition, such as, big amount of interpolation points, the interpolation function can not be written explicitly. This such function consist of computational steps. The solution of equations involving the interpolation function is a problem of solution of non linear equation. Newton method will not work on the interpolation function, for the derivative of the interpolation function cannot be written explicitly. This paper shows the use of Secton method to determine the numerical solution of the function involving the interpolation function. The experiment shows the fact that Secton method works better than Newton method in finding the root of Lagrange interpolation function.

Keywords: Secton method, interpolation, non linear function, numerical solution

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Authors: Yuhang Wang, Jorg Schluter, Sergiy Shelyag

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The high cost associated with high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is one of the main challenges that inhibit the design, development, and optimisation of new combustion systems adapted for renewable fuels. In this study, we propose a physics-guided CNN-based model to predict turbulence evolution and mixing without requiring a traditional CFD solver. The model architecture is built upon U-Net and the inception module, while a physics-guided loss function is designed by introducing two additional physical constraints to allow for the conservation of both mass and pressure over the entire predicted flow fields. Then, the model is trained on the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) results of a natural turbulent mixing layer with two different Reynolds number cases (Re = 3000 and 30000). As a result, the model prediction shows an excellent agreement with the corresponding CFD solutions in terms of both spatial distributions and temporal evolution of turbulent mixing. Such promising model prediction performance opens up the possibilities of doing accurate high-resolution manifold-based combustion simulations at a low computational cost for accelerating the iterative design process of new combustion systems.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, turbulence, machine learning, combustion modelling

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Authors: Anne C. Richer-De-Forges, Dominique Arrouays, Songchao Chen, Mercedes Roman Dobarco

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Most of the digital soil mapping (DSM) products rely on machine learning (ML) prediction models and/or the use or pedotransfer functions (PTF) in which calibration data come from soil analyses performed in labs. However, many other observations (often qualitative, nominal, or ordinal) could be used as proxies of lab measurements or as input data for ML of PTF predictions. DSM and ML are briefly described with some examples taken from the literature. Then, we explore the potential of an ordinal qualitative variable, i.e., the hand-feel soil texture (HFST) estimating the mineral particle distribution (PSD): % of clay (0-2µm), silt (2-50µm) and sand (50-2000µm) in 15 classes. The PSD can also be measured by lab measurements (LAST) to determine the exact proportion of these particle-sizes. However, due to cost constraints, HFST are much more numerous and spatially dense than LAST. Soil texture (ST) is a very important soil parameter to map as it is controlling many of the soil properties and functions. Therefore, comes an essential question: is it possible to use HFST as a proxy of LAST for calibration and/or validation of DSM predictions of ST? To answer this question, the first step is to compare HFST with LAST on a representative set where both information are available. This comparison was made on ca 17,400 samples representative of a French region (34,000 km2). The accuracy of HFST was assessed, and each HFST class was characterized by a probability distribution function (PDF) of its LAST values. This enables to randomly replace HFST observations by LAST values while respecting the PDF previously calculated and results in a very large increase of observations available for the calibration or validation of PTF and ML predictions. Some preliminary results are shown. First, the comparison between HFST classes and LAST analyses showed that accuracies could be considered very good when compared to other studies. The causes of some inconsistencies were explored and most of them were well explained by other soil characteristics. Then we show some examples applying these relationships and the increase of data to several issues related to DSM. The first issue is: do the PDF functions that were established enable to use HSFT class observations to improve the LAST soil texture prediction? For this objective, we replaced all HFST for topsoil by values from the PDF 100 time replicates). Results were promising for the PTF we tested (a PTF predicting soil water holding capacity). For the question related to the ML prediction of LAST soil texture on the region, we did the same kind of replacement, but we implemented a 10-fold cross-validation using points where we had LAST values. We obtained only preliminary results but they were rather promising. Then we show another example illustrating the potential of using HFST as validation data. As in numerous countries, the HFST observations are very numerous; these promising results pave the way to an important improvement of DSM products in all the countries of the world.

Keywords: digital soil mapping, improvement of digital soil mapping predictions, potential of using hand-feel soil texture, soil texture prediction

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Authors: Yu-Jia Jian, Emily Chia-Yu Su, Hui-Ling Hsu, Jian-Jhih Chen

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Coronary artery is the major supplier of myocardial blood flow. When fat and cholesterol are deposit in the coronary arterial wall, narrowing and stenosis of the artery occurs, which may lead to myocardial ischemia and eventually infarction. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), estimated 740 million people have died of coronary heart disease in 2015. According to Statistics from Ministry of Health and Welfare in Taiwan, heart disease (except for hypertensive diseases) ranked the second among the top 10 causes of death from 2013 to 2016, and it still shows a growing trend. According to American Heart Association (AHA), the risk factors for coronary heart disease including: age (> 65 years), sex (men to women with 2:1 ratio), obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history, lack of exercise and more. We have collected a dataset of 421 patients from a hospital located in northern Taiwan who received coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography. There were 300 males (71.26%) and 121 females (28.74%), with age ranging from 24 to 92 years, and a mean age of 56.3 years. Prior to coronary CT angiography, basic data of the patients, including age, gender, obesity index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease and exercise habits, were collected and used as input variables. The output variable of the prediction module is the degree of coronary artery stenosis. The output variable of the prediction module is the narrow constriction of the coronary artery. In this study, the dataset was randomly divided into 80% as training set and 20% as test set. Four machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, stepwise regression, neural network and decision tree, were incorporated to generate prediction results. We used area under curve (AUC) / accuracy (Acc.) to compare the four models, the best model is neural network, followed by stepwise logistic regression, decision tree, and logistic regression, with 0.68 / 79 %, 0.68 / 74%, 0.65 / 78%, and 0.65 / 74%, respectively. Sensitivity of neural network was 27.3%, specificity was 90.8%, stepwise Logistic regression sensitivity was 18.2%, specificity was 92.3%, decision tree sensitivity was 13.6%, specificity was 100%, logistic regression sensitivity was 27.3%, specificity 89.2%. From the result of this study, we hope to improve the accuracy by improving the module parameters or other methods in the future and we hope to solve the problem of low sensitivity by adjusting the imbalanced proportion of positive and negative data.

Keywords: decision support, computed tomography, coronary artery, machine learning

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Authors: Kasim Görenekli, Ali Gülbağ

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This study presents a comprehensive analysis of water consumption patterns in Kocaeli province, Turkey, utilizing various machine learning approaches. We analyzed data from 5,000 water subscribers across residential, commercial, and official categories over an 80-month period from January 2016 to August 2022, resulting in a total of 400,000 records. The dataset encompasses water consumption records, weather information, weekends and holidays, previous months' consumption, and the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic.We implemented and compared several machine learning models, including Linear Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Regression (SVR), XGBoost, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU). Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was applied to optimize hyperparameters for all models.Our results demonstrate varying performance across subscriber types and models. For official subscribers, Random Forest achieved the highest R² of 0.699 with PSO optimization. For commercial subscribers, Linear Regression performed best with an R² of 0.730 with PSO. Residential water usage proved more challenging to predict, with XGBoost achieving the highest R² of 0.572 with PSO.The study identified key factors influencing water consumption, with previous months' consumption, meter diameter, and weather conditions being among the most significant predictors. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumption patterns was also observed, particularly in residential usage.This research provides valuable insights for effective water resource management in Kocaeli and similar regions, considering Turkey's high water loss rate and below-average per capita water supply. The comparative analysis of different machine learning approaches offers a comprehensive framework for selecting appropriate models for water consumption prediction in urban settings.

Keywords: mMachine learning, water consumption prediction, particle swarm optimization, COVID-19, water resource management

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: B. Chikh, L. Moussa, H. Bechtoula, Y. Mehani, A. Zerzour

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This study presents a new method, applicable to evaluation and design of structures has been developed and illustrated by comparison with the capacity spectrum method (CSM, ATC-40). This method uses inelastic spectra and gives peak responses consistent with those obtained when using the nonlinear time history analysis. Hereafter, the seismic demands assessment method is called in this paper DSM, Ductility Spectrum Method. It is used to estimate the seismic deformation of Single-Degree-Of-Freedom (SDOF) systems based on DDRS, Ductility Demand Response Spectrum, developed by the author.

Keywords: seismic demand, capacity, inelastic spectra, design and structure

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Authors: M. Pienaar, J. W. Odendaal, J. C. Smit, J. Joubert

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Simulations are commonly used to predict the bistatic radar cross section (RCS) of military targets since characterization measurements can be expensive and time consuming. It is thus important to accurately predict the bistatic RCS of targets. Computational electromagnetic (CEM) methods can be used for bistatic RCS prediction. CEM methods are divided into full-wave and asymptotic methods. Full-wave methods are numerical approximations to the exact solution of Maxwell’s equations. These methods are very accurate but are computationally very intensive and time consuming. Asymptotic techniques make simplifying assumptions in solving Maxwell's equations and are thus less accurate but require less computational resources and time. Asymptotic techniques can thus be very valuable for the prediction of bistatic RCS of electrically large targets, due to the decreased computational requirements. This study extends previous work by validating the accuracy of asymptotic techniques to predict bistatic RCS through comparison with full-wave simulations as well as measurements. Validation is done with canonical structures as well as complex realistic aircraft models instead of only looking at a complex slicy structure. The slicy structure is a combination of canonical structures, including cylinders, corner reflectors and cubes. Validation is done over large bistatic angles and at different polarizations. Bistatic RCS measurements were conducted in a compact range, at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. The measurements were performed at different polarizations from 2 GHz to 6 GHz. Fixed bistatic angles of β = 30.8°, 45° and 90° were used. The measurements were calibrated with an active calibration target. The EM simulation tool FEKO was used to generate simulated results. The full-wave multi-level fast multipole method (MLFMM) simulated results together with the measured data were used as reference for validation. The accuracy of physical optics (PO) and geometrical optics (GO) was investigated. Differences relating to amplitude, lobing structure and null positions were observed between the asymptotic, full-wave and measured data. PO and GO were more accurate at angles close to the specular scattering directions and the accuracy seemed to decrease as the bistatic angle increased. At large bistatic angles PO did not perform well due to the shadow regions not being treated appropriately. PO also did not perform well for canonical structures where multi-bounce was the main scattering mechanism. PO and GO do not account for diffraction but these inaccuracies tended to decrease as the electrical size of objects increased. It was evident that both asymptotic techniques do not properly account for bistatic structural shadowing. Specular scattering was calculated accurately even if targets did not meet the electrically large criteria. It was evident that the bistatic RCS prediction performance of PO and GO depends on incident angle, frequency, target shape and observation angle. The improved computational efficiency of the asymptotic solvers yields a major advantage over full-wave solvers and measurements; however, there is still much room for improvement of the accuracy of these asymptotic techniques.

Keywords: asymptotic techniques, bistatic RCS, geometrical optics, physical optics

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Authors: Zhenzhen Xu, Chunfu Shao, Shengyou Wang, Chunjiao Dong

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To improve the satisfaction of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of urban residents' travel behavior. First, a Multinominal Logit Model (MNL) model is built to analyze the characteristics of residents' travel behavior, reveal the influence of individual attributes, family attributes and travel characteristics on the choice of travel mode, and identify the significant factors. Then put forward suggestions for policy improvement. Finally, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models are introduced to evaluate the policy effect. This paper selects Futian Street in Futian District, Shenzhen City for investigation and research. The results show that gender, age, education, income, number of cars owned, travel purpose, departure time, journey time, travel distance and times all have a significant influence on residents' choice of travel mode. Based on the above results, two policy improvement suggestions are put forward from reducing public transportation and non-motor vehicle travel time, and the policy effect is evaluated. Before the evaluation, the prediction effect of MNL, SVM and MLP models was evaluated. After parameter optimization, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the three models was 72.80%, 71.42%, and 76.42%, respectively. The MLP model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to evaluate the effect of policy improvement. The results showed that after the implementation of the policy, the proportion of public transportation in plan 1 and plan 2 increased by 14.04% and 9.86%, respectively, while the proportion of private cars decreased by 3.47% and 2.54%, respectively. The proportion of car trips decreased obviously, while the proportion of public transport trips increased. It can be considered that the measures have a positive effect on promoting green trips and improving the satisfaction of urban residents, and can provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate transportation policies.

Keywords: neural network, travel characteristics analysis, transportation choice, travel sharing rate, traffic resource allocation

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Authors: Sajjad Izadpanah, Seyed Hadi Ghaderi, Morteza Sayah Irani, Mahdi Gerdooei

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In this research work, a sophisticated yield criterion known as BBC2003, capable of describing planar anisotropic behaviors of aluminum alloy sheets, was integrated into the commercial finite element code ABAQUS/Standard via a user subroutine. The complete formulation of the implementation process using a fully implicit integration scheme, i.e., the classic backward Euler method, is presented, and relevant aspects of the yield criterion are introduced. In order to solve nonlinear differential and algebraic equations, the line-search algorithm was adopted in the user-defined material subroutine (UMAT) to expand the convergence domain of the iterative Newton-Raphson method. The developed subroutine was used to simulate a challenging computational problem with complex stress states, i.e., deep drawing of an anisotropic aluminum alloy AA3105. The accuracy and stability of the developed subroutine were confirmed by comparing the numerically predicted earing and thickness variation profiles with the experimental results, which showed an excellent agreement between numerical and experimental earing and thickness profiles. The integration of the BBC2003 yield criterion into ABAQUS/Standard represents a significant contribution to the field of computational mechanics and provides a useful tool for analyzing the mechanical behavior of anisotropic materials subjected to complex loading conditions.

Keywords: BBC2003 yield function, plastic anisotropy, fully implicit integration scheme, line search algorithm, explicit and implicit integration schemes

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Authors: Jan-Peter Mund, Christian Kind

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In view of the ongoing climate change and global warming, fires along railways in Germany are occurring more frequently, with sometimes massive consequences for railway operations and affected railroad infrastructure. In the absence of systematic studies within the infrastructure network of German Rail, little is known about the causes of such embankment fires. Since a further increase in these hazards is to be expected in the near future, there is a need for a sound knowledge of triggers and drivers for embankment fires as well as methodical knowledge of prediction tools. Two predictable future trends speak for the increasing relevance of the topic: through the intensification of the use of rail for passenger and freight transport (e.g..: doubling of annual passenger numbers by 2030, compared to 2019), there will be more rail traffic and also more maintenance and construction work on the railways. This research project approach uses satellite data to identify historical embankment fires along rail network infrastructure. The team links data from these fires with infrastructure and weather data and trains a machine-learning model with the aim of predicting fire hazards on sections of the track. Companies reflect on the results and use them on a pilot basis in precautionary measures.

Keywords: embankment fires, railway maintenance, machine learning, remote sensing, VIIRS data

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Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Use of speed prediction models sometimes appears as a feasible alternative to laborious field measurement particularly, in case when field data cannot fulfill designer’s requirements. However, developing speed models is a challenging task specifically in the context of developing countries like India where vehicles with diverse static and dynamic characteristics use the same right of way without any segregation. Here the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining the vehicular speed. The present research was carried out to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on vehicular speed under mixed traffic conditions. Classified traffic volume and speed data were collected from different geometrically identical six lane divided arterials in New Delhi. Based on these field data, speed prediction models were developed for individual vehicle category adopting Kriging approximation technique, an alternative for commonly used regression. These models are validated with the data set kept aside earlier for validation purpose. The predicted speeds showed a great deal of agreement with the observed values and also the model outperforms all other existing speed models. Finally, the proposed models were utilized to evaluate the effect of traffic volume and its composition on speed.

Keywords: speed, Kriging, arterial, traffic volume

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Authors: Damous Mohamed, Zeroudi Nasredine

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High-speed milling of thin-walled parts with complex curvilinear profiles often encounters machining instability, commonly referred to as chatter. This phenomenon arises due to the dynamic interaction between the cutting tool and the part, exacerbated by the part's low rigidity and varying dynamic characteristics along the tool path. This research presents a dynamic model specifically developed to predict machining stability for such curved thin-walled components. The model employs the semi-discretization method, segmenting the tool trajectory into small, straight elements to locally approximate the behavior of an inclined plane. Dynamic characteristics for each segment are extracted through experimental modal analysis and incorporated into the simulation model to generate global stability lobe diagrams. Validation of the model is conducted through cutting tests where acoustic intensity is measured to detect instabilities. The experimental data align closely with the predicted stability limits, confirming the model's accuracy and effectiveness. This work provides a comprehensive approach to enhancing machining stability predictions, thereby improving the efficiency and quality of high-speed milling operations for thin-walled parts.

Keywords: chatter, curved thin-walled part, semi-discretization method, stability lobe diagrams

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Authors: Hadi Rouhi Belvirdi

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The construction of underground structures using the traditional method, which begins with excavation and the implementation of the foundation of the underground structure, continues with the construction of the main structure from the ground up, and concludes with the completion of the final ceiling, is known as the Bottom-Up Method. In contrast to this method, there is an advanced technique called the Top-Down Method, which has practically replaced the traditional construction method in large projects in industrialized countries in recent years. Unlike the traditional approach, this method starts with the construction of surrounding walls, columns, and the final ceiling and is completed with the excavation and construction of the foundation of the underground structure. Some of the most significant advantages of this method include the elimination or minimization of formwork surfaces, the removal of temporary bracing during excavation, the creation of some traffic facilities during the construction of the structure, and the possibility of using it in limited and high-traffic urban spaces. Despite these numerous advantages, unfortunately, there is still insufficient awareness of this method in our country, to the extent that it can be confidently stated that most stakeholders in the construction industry are unaware of the existence of such a construction method. However, it can be utilized as a very important execution option alongside other conventional methods in the construction of underground structures. Therefore, due to the extensive practical capabilities of this method, this article aims to present a methodology for constructing underground structures based on the aforementioned advanced method to the scientific community of the country, examine the advantages and limitations of this method and their impacts on time and costs, and discuss its application in urban spaces. Finally, some underground structures executed in the Ahvaz urban rail, which are being implemented using this advanced method to the best of our best knowledge, will be introduced.

Keywords: top-down method, bottom-up method, underground structure, construction method

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Authors: Badiy Elmabrouk, Abdelhamid Boujarif, Zhiguo Zeng, Stephane Borrel, Robert Heidsieck

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In an era where sustainability is paramount, this paper introduces a machine learning-driven testing protocol to accurately predict diode failures, merging reliability engineering with failure physics to enhance repair operations efficiency. Our approach refines the burn-in process, significantly curtailing its duration, which not only conserves energy but also elevates productivity and mitigates component wear. A case study from GE HealthCare’s repair center vividly demonstrates the method’s effectiveness, recording a high prediction of diode failures and a substantial decrease in energy consumption that translates to an annual reduction of 6.5 Tons of CO2 emissions. This advancement sets a benchmark for environmentally conscious practices in the electronics repair sector.

Keywords: maintenance, burn-in, failure physics, reliability testing

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Authors: Volkan Ayik

Abstract:

Loosening as a result of torque loss in bolted joints is one of the most encountered problems resulting in loss of connection between parts. The main reason for this is the dynamic loads to which the joints are subjected while the vehicle is moving. In particular, vibration-induced loads can loosen the joints in any size and geometry. The aim of this study is to study an improved method due to road-induced vibration in heavy commercial vehicles for estimating the vibration performance of bolted joints of the components connected to the chassis, before conducting prototype level vehicle structural strength tests on a proving ground. The frequency and displacements caused by the road conditions-induced vibration loads have been determined for the parts connected to the chassis, and various experimental design scenarios have been formed by matching specific components and vibration behaviors. In the studies, the performance of the torque, washer, test displacement, and test frequency parameters were observed by maintaining the connection characteristics on the vehicle, and the sensitivity ratios for these variables were calculated. As a result of these experimental design findings, tests performed on a developed device based on Junker’s vibration device and proving ground conditions versus test correlation levels were found.

Keywords: bolted joints, junker’s test, loosening failure, torque loss

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Authors: Lojain Suliman, Xinrong Liu, Xiaohan Zhou

Abstract:

Since most tunnels are built in crowded metropolitan settings, the excavation process must take place in highly condensed locations, including high-density cities. In this way, the tunnels are typically located close together, which leads to more interaction between the parallel existing tunnels, and this, in turn, leads to more settlement. This research presents an examination of the impact of a large-scale tunnel excavation on two forms of settlement: surface settlement and settlement surrounding the tunnel. Additionally, research has been done on the properties of interactions between two and three parallel tunnels. The settlement has been evaluated using three primary techniques: theoretical modeling, numerical simulation, and data monitoring. Additionally, a parametric investigation on how distance affects the settlement characteristic for parallel tunnels with short distances has been completed. Additionally, it has been observed that the sequence of excavation has an impact on the behavior of settlements. Nevertheless, a comparison of the model test and numerical simulation yields significant agreement in terms of settlement trend and value. Additionally, when compared to the FEM study, the suggested analytical solution exhibits reduced sensitivity in the settlement prediction. For example, the settlement of the small tunnel diameter does not appear clearly on the settlement curve, while it is notable in the FEM analysis. It is advised, however, that additional studies be conducted in the future employing analytical solutions for settlement prediction for parallel tunnels.

Keywords: settlement, FEM, analytical solution, parallel tunnels

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Authors: F. O. Adeosun, I. O. Orubuloye, O. O. Babalola

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Although caesarean section has greatly improved obstetric care throughout the world, in developing countries there is a great aversion to caesarean section. This study was carried out to examine the rate at which pregnant women with pre-eclampsia choose caesarean section over natural birth. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 500 pre-eclampsia antenatal clients seen at the States University Teaching Hospitals in the last one year. The sample selection was purposive. Information on their educational background, beliefs and attitudes were collected. Data analysis was presented using simple percentages. Out of 500 women studied, 38% favored caesarean section while 62% were against it. About 89% of them understood what caesarean section is, 57.3% of those who understood what caesarean section is will still not choose it as an option. Over 85% of the women believed caesarean section is done for medical reasons. If caesarean section is given as an option for childbirth, 38% would go for it, 29% would try religious intervention, 5.5% would not choose it because of fear, while 27.5% would reject it because they believe it is culturally wrong. Majority of respondents (85%) who favored caesarean delivery are aware of the risk attached to choosing virginal birth but go an extra mile in sourcing funds for a caesarean session while over 64% cannot afford the cost of caesarean delivery. It is therefore pertinent to encourage research in prediction methods and prevention of occurrence, since this would assist patients to plan on how to finance treatment.

Keywords: caesarean section, choice, cost, pre eclampsia, prediction methods

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Authors: K. Petcharaporn

Abstract:

The external characteristics of tomatoes, such as freshness, color and size are typically used in quality control processes for tomatoes sorting. However, the internal mold infection of intact tomato cannot be sorted based on a visible assessment and destructive method alone. In this study, a non-destructive technique was used to predict the internal mold infection of intact tomatoes by using transmittance visible and near infrared (VIS-NIR) spectroscopy. Spectra for 200 samples contained 100 samples for normal tomatoes and 100 samples for mold infected tomatoes were acquired in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. This data was used in conjunction with partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) method to generate a classification model for tomato quality between groups of internal mold infection of intact tomato samples. For this task, the data was split into two groups, 140 samples were used for a training set and 60 samples were used for a test set. The spectra of both normal and internally mold infected tomatoes showed different features in the visible wavelength range. Combined spectral pretreatments of standard normal variate transformation (SNV) and smoothing (Savitzky-Golay) gave the optimal calibration model in training set, 85.0% (63 out of 71 for the normal samples and 56 out of 69 for the internal mold samples). The classification accuracy of the best model on the test set was 91.7% (29 out of 29 for the normal samples and 26 out of 31 for the internal mold tomato samples). The results from this experiment showed that transmittance VIS-NIR spectroscopy can be used as a non-destructive technique to predict the internal mold infection of intact tomatoes.

Keywords: tomato, mold, quality, prediction, transmittance

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Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

Abstract:

A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled DNI field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, resilient propagation, solar radiation, time series forecasting

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Authors: Saheed A. Gbadegeshin

Abstract:

Commercialization method is a means to make inventions available at the market for final consumption. It is described as an important tool for keeping business enterprises sustainable and improving national economic growth. Thus, there are several scholarly publications on it, either presenting or testing different methods for commercialization. However, young entrepreneurs, technologists and scientists would like to know the best method to commercialize their innovations. Then, this question arises: What is the best commercialization method? To answer the question, a systematic literature review was conducted, and practitioners were interviewed. The literary results revealed that there are many methods but new methods are needed to improve commercialization especially during these times of economic crisis and political uncertainty. Similarly, the empirical results showed there are several methods, but the best method is the one that reduces costs, reduces the risks associated with uncertainty, and improves customer participation and acceptability. Therefore, it was concluded that new commercialization method is essential for today's high technologies and a method was presented.

Keywords: commercialization method, technology, knowledge, intellectual property, innovation, invention

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Authors: Xi Yang, Bulent Chavdar, Alan Vonseggern, Taylan Altan

Abstract:

Fracture in hot precision forging of engine valves was investigated in this paper. The entire valve forging procedure was described and the possible cause of the fracture was proposed. Finite Element simulation was conducted for the forging process, with commercial Finite Element code DEFORMTM. The effects of material properties, the effect of strain rate and temperature were considered in the FE simulation. Two fracture criteria were discussed and compared, based on the accuracy and reliability of the FE simulation results. The selected criterion predicted the fracture location and shows the trend of damage increasing with good accuracy, which matches the experimental observation. Additional modification of the punch shapes was proposed to further reduce the tendency of fracture in forging. Finite Element comparison shows a great potential of such application in the mass production.

Keywords: hotforging, engine valve, fracture, tooling

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Authors: Pinel Sebastien, Bourrin François, De Madron Du Rieu Xavier, Ludwig Wolfgang, Arnau Pedro

Abstract:

Heavy precipitation constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Research has investigated the relationship between the states of the Mediterranean Sea and the atmosphere with the precipitation for short temporal windows. However, at a larger temporal scale, the precursor signals of heavy rainfall in the sea and atmosphere have drawn little attention. Moreover, despite ongoing improvements in numerical weather prediction, the medium-term forecasting of rainfall events remains a difficult task. Here, we aim to investigate the influence of early-spring environmental parameters on the following autumnal heavy precipitations. Hence, we develop a machine learning model to predict extreme autumnal rainfall with a 6-month lead time over the Spanish Catalan coastal area, based on i) the sea pattern (main current-LPC and Sea Surface Temperature-SST) at the mesoscale scale, ii) 4 European weather teleconnection patterns (NAO, WeMo, SCAND, MO) at synoptic scale, and iii) the hydrological regime of the main local river (Rhône River). The accuracy of the developed model classifier is evaluated via statistical analysis based on classification accuracy, logarithmic and confusion matrix by comparing with rainfall estimates from rain gauges and satellite observations (CHIRPS-2.0). Sensitivity tests are carried out by changing the model configuration, such as sea SST, sea LPC, river regime, and synoptic atmosphere configuration. The sensitivity analysis suggests a negligible influence from the hydrological regime, unlike SST, LPC, and specific teleconnection weather patterns. At last, this study illustrates how public datasets can be integrated into a machine learning model for heavy rainfall prediction and can interest local policies for management purposes.

Keywords: extreme hazards, sensitivity analysis, heavy rainfall, machine learning, sea-atmosphere modeling, precipitation forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 136