Search results for: Taylor Series Method
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 20651

Search results for: Taylor Series Method

19901 Meta-Magnetic Properties of LaFe₁₂B₆ Type Compounds

Authors: Baptiste Vallet-Simond, Léopold V. B. Diop, Olivier Isnard

Abstract:

The antiferromagnetic itinerant-electron compound LaFe₁₂B₆ occupies a special place among rare-earth iron-rich intermetallic; it presents exotic magnetic and physical properties. The unusual amplitude-modulated spin configuration defined by a propagation vector k = (¼, ¼, ¼), remarkably weak Fe magnetic moment (0.43 μB) in the antiferromagnetic ground state, especially low magnetic ordering temperature TN = 36 K for an Fe-rich phase, a multicritical point in the complex magnetic phase diagram, both normal and inverse magnetocaloric effects, and huge hydrostatic pressure effects can be highlighted as the most relevant. Both antiferromagnetic (AFM) and paramagnetic (PM) states can be transformed into the ferromagnetic (FM) state via a field-induced first-order metamagnetic transition. Of particular interest is the low-temperature magnetization process. This process is discontinuous and evolves unexpected huge metamagnetic transitions consisting of a succession of steep magnetization jumps separated by plateaus, giving rise to an unusual avalanche-like behavior. The metamagnetic transition is accompanied by giant magnetoresistance and large magnetostriction. In the present work, we report on the intrinsic magnetic properties of the La₁₋ₓPrₓFe₁₂B₆ series of compounds exhibiting sharp metamagnetic transitions. The study of the structural, magnetic, magneto-transport, and magnetostrictive properties of the La₁₋ₓPrₓFe₁₂B₆ system was performed by combining a wide variety of measurement techniques. Magnetic measurements were performed up to µ0H = 10 T. It was found that the proportion of Pr had a strong influence on the magnetic properties of this series of compounds. At x=0.05, the ground state at 2K is that of an antiferromagnet, but the critical transition field Hc has been lowered from Hc = 6T at x = 0 to Hc = 2.5 Tat x=0.05. And starting from x=0.10, the ground state of this series of compounds is a coexistence of AFM and FM parts. At x=0.30, the AFM order has completely vanished, and only the FM part is left. However, we still observe meta-magnetic transitions at higher temperatures (above 100 K for x=0.30) from the paramagnetic (P) state to a forced FM state. And, of course, such transitions are accompanied by strong magneto-caloric, magnetostrictive, and magnetoresistance effects. The Curie temperatures for the probed compositions going from x=0.05 to x=0.30 were spread over the temperature range of 40 K up to 100 K.

Keywords: metamagnetism, RMB intermetallic, magneto-transport effect, metamagnetic transitions

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19900 A Finite Element Method Simulation for Rocket Motor Material Selection

Authors: T. Kritsana, P. Sawitri, P. Teeratas

Abstract:

This article aims to study the effect of pressure on rocket motor case by Finite Element Method simulation to select optimal material in rocket motor manufacturing process. In this study, cylindrical tubes with outside diameter of 122 mm and thickness of 3 mm are used for simulation. Defined rocket motor case materials are AISI4130, AISI1026, AISI1045, AL2024 and AL7075. Internal pressure used for the simulation is 22 MPa. The result from Finite Element Method shows that at a pressure of 22 MPa rocket motor case produced by AISI4130, AISI1045 and AL7075 can be used. A comparison of the result between AISI4130, AISI1045 and AL7075 shows that AISI4130 has minimum principal stress and confirm the results of Finite Element Method by the used of calculation method found that, the results from Finite Element Method has good reliability.

Keywords: rocket motor case, finite element method, principal stress, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 430
19899 Green Synthesis of Zinc Oxide Nano Particles Using Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum) Extract and Its Application for Solar Cell

Authors: Prasanta Sutradhar, Mitali Saha

Abstract:

With an increasing awareness of green and clean energy, zinc oxide based solar cells were found to be suitable candidates for cost-effective and environmentally friendly energy conversion devices. In this work, we have reported the green synthesis of zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnO) by thermal method and under microwave irradiation using the aqueous extract of tomatoes as non-toxic and ecofriendly reducing material. The synthesized ZnO nanoparticles were characterised by UV-Visible spectroscopy (UV-Vis), infra-red spectroscopy (IR), particle size analyser (DLS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM), and X- ray diffraction study (XRD). A series of ZnO nanocomposites with titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO2) and graphene oxide (GO) were prepared for photovoltaic application. Structural and morphological studies of these nanocomposites were carried out using UV-vis, SEM, XRD, and AFM. The current-voltage measurements of the nanocomposites demonstrated enhanced power conversion efficiency of 6.18% in case of ZnO/GO/TiO2 nanocomposite.

Keywords: ZnO, green synthesis, microwave, nanocomposites, I-V characteristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 384
19898 Anterior Chamber Depth Measured with Orbscan and Pentacam Compared with Smith Method in 102 Phakic Eyes

Authors: Mohammad Ghandehari Motlagh

Abstract:

Purpose: Comparing anterior chamber depth (ACD) measured with Orbscan II and Pentacam HR compared with the Smith method results. Methods: Smith method (1979) is a reliable method of measuring ACD only with help of slit lamp. In this study 102 phakic eyes as PRK candidates were imaged with both OrbScan and Pentacam and finally ACD was measured thru Smith method with slit lamp. ACD measured with Smith method was presumed as the gold standard and was compared with ACD of the 2 imaging devices. Contraindication cases for PRK and pseudophakic eyes have been excluded from the study. Results: Mean age of the patients was 35.2 ±14.8 yrs/old including 56 M(54.9%)and 46 F(45.09%).Acceptable correlation of ACD measured thru Smith method with Orbscan and Pentacam are R=0.958 and R=0.942 respectively and so Orbscan results can be used in procedures relying on ACD. Conclusion: ACDs measured with OrbScan is more precise than Pentacam and so can be more useful in some surgery procedures relying ACD results such as phakic IOLs and in cycloplegia contraindications.

Keywords: orbscan, pentacam, anterior chamber depth, slit lamp

Procedia PDF Downloads 350
19897 Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Trends in Central Italy

Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Marco Cifrodelli, Corrado Corradini

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The trend of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfalls seems to be different depending on the investigated area of the world. In this work, the impact of climate change on extreme rainfalls in Umbria, an inland region of central Italy, is examined using data recorded during the period 1921-2015 by 10 representative rain gauge stations. The study area is characterized by a complex orography, with altitude ranging from 200 to more than 2000 m asl. The climate is very different from zone to zone, with mean annual rainfall ranging from 650 to 1450 mm and mean annual air temperature from 3.3 to 14.2°C. Over the past 15 years, this region has been affected by four significant droughts as well as by six dangerous flood events, all with very large impact in economic terms. A least-squares linear trend analysis of annual maximums over 60 time series selected considering 6 different durations (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 48 h) showed about 50% of positive and 50% of negative cases. For the same time series the non-parametrical Mann-Kendall test with a significance level 0.05 evidenced only 3% of cases characterized by a negative trend and no positive case. Further investigations have also demonstrated that the variance and covariance of each time series can be considered almost stationary. Therefore, the analysis on the magnitude of extreme rainfalls supplies the indication that an evident trend in the change of values in the Umbria region does not exist. However, also the frequency of rainfall events, with particularly high rainfall depths values, occurred during a fixed period has also to be considered. For all selected stations the 2-day rainfall events that exceed 50 mm were counted for each year, starting from the first monitored year to the end of 2015. Also, this analysis did not show predominant trends. Specifically, for all selected rain gauge stations the annual number of 2-day rainfall events that exceed the threshold value (50 mm) was slowly decreasing in time, while the annual cumulated rainfall depths corresponding to the same events evidenced trends that were not statistically significant. Overall, by using a wide available dataset and adopting simple methods, the influence of climate change on the heavy rainfalls in the Umbria region is not detected.

Keywords: climate changes, rainfall extremes, rainfall magnitude and frequency, central Italy

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19896 Finite Element and Split Bregman Methods for Solving a Family of Optimal Control Problem with Partial Differential Equation Constraint

Authors: Mahmoud Lot

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In this article, we will discuss the solution of elliptic optimal control problem. First, by using the nite element method, we obtain the discrete form of the problem. The obtained discrete problem is actually a large scale constrained optimization problem. Solving this optimization problem with traditional methods is difficult and requires a lot of CPU time and memory. But split Bergman method converts the constrained problem to an unconstrained, and hence it saves time and memory requirement. Then we use the split Bregman method for solving this problem, and examples show the speed and accuracy of split Bregman methods for solving these types of problems. We also use the SQP method for solving the examples and compare with the split Bregman method.

Keywords: Split Bregman Method, optimal control with elliptic partial differential equation constraint, finite element method

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
19895 Surveillance Video Summarization Based on Histogram Differencing and Sum Conditional Variance

Authors: Nada Jasim Habeeb, Rana Saad Mohammed, Muntaha Khudair Abbass

Abstract:

For more efficient and fast video summarization, this paper presents a surveillance video summarization method. The presented method works to improve video summarization technique. This method depends on temporal differencing to extract most important data from large video stream. This method uses histogram differencing and Sum Conditional Variance which is robust against to illumination variations in order to extract motion objects. The experimental results showed that the presented method gives better output compared with temporal differencing based summarization techniques.

Keywords: temporal differencing, video summarization, histogram differencing, sum conditional variance

Procedia PDF Downloads 329
19894 A Multistep Broyden’s-Type Method for Solving Systems of Nonlinear Equations

Authors: M. Y. Waziri, M. A. Aliyu

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The paper proposes an approach to improve the performance of Broyden’s method for solving systems of nonlinear equations. In this work, we consider the information from two preceding iterates rather than a single preceding iterate to update the Broyden’s matrix that will produce a better approximation of the Jacobian matrix in each iteration. The numerical results verify that the proposed method has clearly enhanced the numerical performance of Broyden’s Method.

Keywords: mulit-step Broyden, nonlinear systems of equations, computational efficiency, iterate

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19893 MP-SMC-I Method for Slip Suppression of Electric Vehicles under Braking

Authors: Tohru Kawabe

Abstract:

In this paper, a new SMC (Sliding Mode Control) method with MP (Model Predictive Control) integral action for the slip suppression of EV (Electric Vehicle) under braking is proposed. The proposed method introduce the integral term with standard SMC gain , where the integral gain is optimized for each control period by the MPC algorithms. The aim of this method is to improve the safety and the stability of EVs under braking by controlling the wheel slip ratio. There also include numerical simulation results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: sliding mode control, model predictive control, integral action, electric vehicle, slip suppression

Procedia PDF Downloads 542
19892 Automatic Extraction of Water Bodies Using Whole-R Method

Authors: Nikhat Nawaz, S. Srinivasulu, P. Kesava Rao

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Feature extraction plays an important role in many remote sensing applications. Automatic extraction of water bodies is of great significance in many remote sensing applications like change detection, image retrieval etc. This paper presents a procedure for automatic extraction of water information from remote sensing images. The algorithm uses the relative location of R-colour component of the chromaticity diagram. This method is then integrated with the effectiveness of the spatial scale transformation of whole method. The whole method is based on water index fitted from spectral library. Experimental results demonstrate the improved accuracy and effectiveness of the integrated method for automatic extraction of water bodies.

Keywords: feature extraction, remote sensing, image retrieval, chromaticity, water index, spectral library, integrated method

Procedia PDF Downloads 363
19891 Analysis of Eco-Efficiency and the Determinants of Family Agriculture in Southeast Spain

Authors: Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Ángeles Godoy-Durán, Juan C. Pérez-Mesa, Laura Piedra-Muñoz

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Eco-efficiency is receiving ever-increasing interest as an indicator of sustainability, as it links environmental and economic performances in productive activities. In agriculture, these indicators and their determinants prove relevant due to the close relationships in this activity between the use of natural resources, which is generally limited, and the provision of basic goods to society. In this context, various analyses have focused on eco-efficiency by considering individual family farms as the basic production unit. However, not only must the measure of efficiency be taken into account, but also the existence of a series of factors which constitute socio-economic, political-institutional, and environmental determinants. Said factors have been studied to a lesser extent in the literature. The present work analyzes eco-efficiency at a micro level, focusing on small-scale family farms as the main decision-making units in horticulture in southeast Spain, a sector which represents about 30% of the fresh vegetables produced in the country and about 20% of those consumed in Europe. The objectives of this study are a) to obtain a series of eco-efficiency indicators by estimating several pressure ratios and economic value added in farming, b) to analyze the influence of specific social, economic and environmental variables on the aforementioned eco-efficiency indicators. The present work applies the method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which calculates different combinations of environmental pressures (water usage, phytosanitary contamination, waste management, etc.) and aggregate economic value. In a second stage, an analysis is conducted on the influence of the socio-economic and environmental characteristics of family farms on the eco-efficiency indicators, as endogeneous variables, through the use of truncated regression and bootstrapping techniques, following Simar-Wilson methodology. The results reveal considerable inefficiency in aspects such as waste management, while there is relatively little inefficiency in water usage and nitrogen balance. On the other hand, characteristics, such as product specialization, the adoption of quality certifications and belonging to a cooperative do have a positive impact on eco-efficiency. These results are deemed to be of interest to agri-food systems structured on small-scale producers, and they may prove useful to policy-makers as regards managing public environmental programs in agriculture.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, eco-efficiency, family farms, horticulture, socioeconomic features

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19890 Assessment of Hargreaves Equation for Estimating Monthly Reference Evapotranspiration in the South of Iran

Authors: Ali Dehgan Moroozeh, B. Farhadi Bansouleh

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Evapotranspiration is one of the most important components of the hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important variable in water and energy balances on the earth’s surface, and knowledge of the distribution of ET is a key factor in hydrology, climatology, agronomy and ecology studies. Many researchers have a valid relationship, which is a function of climate factors, to estimate the potential evapotranspiration presented to the plant water stress or water loss, prevent. The FAO-Penman method (PM) had been recommended as a standard method. This method requires many data and these data are not available in every area of world. So, other methods should be evaluated for these conditions. When sufficient or reliable data to solve the PM equation are not available then Hargreaves equation can be used. The Hargreaves equation (HG) requires only daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperature extraterrestrial radiation .In this study, Hargreaves method (HG) were evaluated in 12 stations in the North West region of Iran. Results of HG and M.HG methods were compared with results of PM method. Statistical analysis of this comparison showed that calibration process has had significant effect on efficiency of Hargreaves method.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, hargreaves, equation, FAO-Penman method

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19889 Determinants of Aggregate Electricity Consumption in Ghana: A Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Authors: Renata Konadu

Abstract:

In Ghana, electricity has become the main form of energy which all sectors of the economy rely on for their businesses. Therefore, as the economy grows, the demand and consumption of electricity also grow alongside due to the heavy dependence on it. However, since the supply of electricity has not increased to match the demand, there has been frequent power outages and load shedding affecting business performances. To solve this problem and advance policies to secure electricity in Ghana, it is imperative that those factors that cause consumption to increase be analysed by considering the three classes of consumers; residential, industrial and non-residential. The main argument, however, is that, export of electricity to other neighbouring countries should be included in the electricity consumption model and considered as one of the significant factors which can decrease or increase consumption. The author made use of multivariate time series data from 1980-2010 and econometric models such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Vector Error Correction Model. Findings show that GDP growth, urban population growth, electricity exports and industry value added to GDP were cointegrated. The results also showed that there is unidirectional causality from electricity export and GDP growth and Industry value added to GDP to electricity consumption in the long run. However, in the short run, there was found to be a directional causality among all the variables and electricity consumption. The results have useful implication for energy policy makers especially with regards to electricity consumption, demand, and supply.

Keywords: electricity consumption, energy policy, GDP growth, vector error correction model

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19888 Limit-Cycles Method for the Navigation and Avoidance of Any Form of Obstacles for Mobile Robots in Cluttered Environment

Authors: F. Boufera, F. Debbat

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This paper deals with an approach based on limit-cycles method for the problem of obstacle avoidance of mobile robots in unknown environments for any form of obstacles. The purpose of this approach is the improvement of limit-cycles method in order to obtain safe and flexible navigation. The proposed algorithm has been successfully tested in different configuration on simulation.

Keywords: mobile robot, navigation, avoidance of obstacles, limit-cycles method

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19887 Predicting Recessions with Bivariate Dynamic Probit Model: The Czech and German Case

Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

Procedia PDF Downloads 232
19886 Transportation Mode Classification Using GPS Coordinates and Recurrent Neural Networks

Authors: Taylor Kolody, Farkhund Iqbal, Rabia Batool, Benjamin Fung, Mohammed Hussaeni, Saiqa Aleem

Abstract:

The rising threat of climate change has led to an increase in public awareness and care about our collective and individual environmental impact. A key component of this impact is our use of cars and other polluting forms of transportation, but it is often difficult for an individual to know how severe this impact is. While there are applications that offer this feedback, they require manual entry of what transportation mode was used for a given trip, which can be burdensome. In order to alleviate this shortcoming, a data from the 2016 TRIPlab datasets has been used to train a variety of machine learning models to automatically recognize the mode of transportation. The accuracy of 89.6% is achieved using single deep neural network model with Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) architecture applied directly to trip data points over 4 primary classes, namely walking, public transit, car, and bike. These results are comparable in accuracy to results achieved by others using ensemble methods and require far less computation when classifying new trips. The lack of trip context data, e.g., bus routes, bike paths, etc., and the need for only a single set of weights make this an appropriate methodology for applications hoping to reach a broad demographic and have responsive feedback.

Keywords: classification, gated recurrent unit, recurrent neural network, transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
19885 Numerical Assessment on the Unsaturated Behavior of Silty Sand

Authors: Seyed Abolhassan Naeini, Ali Namaei

Abstract:

This investigation presents the behavior of the unsaturated silty sand by calculating the shear resistance of the specimens by numerical method. In order to investigate this behavior, a series of triaxial tests have been simulated in constant water condition. The finite difference software FLAC3D has been carried out for analyzing the shear resistance and the results are compared with findings from a previous laboratory tests. Constant water tests correspond to a field condition where the rate of the loading is much quicker than the rate at which the pore water is able to drain out of the soil. Tests were simulated on two groups of the silty sands. The obtained results show that the FLAC software may be able to simulate the behavior of specimens with the low suction value magnitude. As the initial suction increased, the differences between numerical and experimental results increased, especially in loose sand. Since some assumptions were used for input parameters, a conclusive result needs more investigations.

Keywords: finite difference, shear resistance, unsaturated silty sand, constant water test

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19884 Dynamics and Advection in a Vortex Parquet on the Plane

Authors: Filimonova Alexanra

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Inviscid incompressible fluid flows are considered. The object of the study is a vortex parquet – a structure consisting of distributed vortex spots of different directions, occupying the entire plane. The main attention is paid to the study of advection processes of passive particles in the corresponding velocity field. The dynamics of the vortex structures is considered in a rectangular region under the assumption that periodic boundary conditions are imposed on the stream function. Numerical algorithms are based on the solution of the initial-boundary value problem for nonstationary Euler equations in terms of vorticity and stream function. For this, the spectral-vortex meshless method is used. It is based on the approximation of the stream function by the Fourier series cut and the approximation of the vorticity field by the least-squares method from its values in marker particles. A vortex configuration, consisting of four vortex patches is investigated. Results of a numerical study of the dynamics and interaction of the structure are presented. The influence of the patch radius and the relative position of positively and negatively directed patches on the processes of interaction and mixing is studied. The obtained results correspond to the following possible scenarios: the initial configuration does not change over time; the initial configuration forms a new structure, which is maintained for longer times; the initial configuration returns to its initial state after a certain period of time. The processes of mass transfer of vorticity by liquid particles on a plane were calculated and analyzed. The results of a numerical analysis of the particles dynamics and trajectories on the entire plane and the field of local Lyapunov exponents are presented.

Keywords: ideal fluid, meshless methods, vortex structures in liquids, vortex parquet.

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19883 Wavelet Method for Numerical Solution of Fourth Order Wave Equation

Authors: A. H. Choudhury

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In this paper, a highly accurate numerical method for the solution of one-dimensional fourth-order wave equation is derived. This hyperbolic problem is solved by using semidiscrete approximations. The space direction is discretized by wavelet-Galerkin method, and the time variable is discretized by using Newmark schemes.

Keywords: hyperbolic problem, semidiscrete approximations, stability, Wavelet-Galerkin Method

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19882 Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Bearings Based on Nonlinear Dimensional Reduction Combined with Timing Signals

Authors: Zhongmin Wang, Wudong Fan, Hengshan Zhang, Yimin Zhou

Abstract:

In data-driven prognostic methods, the prediction accuracy of the estimation for remaining useful life of bearings mainly depends on the performance of health indicators, which are usually fused some statistical features extracted from vibrating signals. However, the existing health indicators have the following two drawbacks: (1) The differnet ranges of the statistical features have the different contributions to construct the health indicators, the expert knowledge is required to extract the features. (2) When convolutional neural networks are utilized to tackle time-frequency features of signals, the time-series of signals are not considered. To overcome these drawbacks, in this study, the method combining convolutional neural network with gated recurrent unit is proposed to extract the time-frequency image features. The extracted features are utilized to construct health indicator and predict remaining useful life of bearings. First, original signals are converted into time-frequency images by using continuous wavelet transform so as to form the original feature sets. Second, with convolutional and pooling layers of convolutional neural networks, the most sensitive features of time-frequency images are selected from the original feature sets. Finally, these selected features are fed into the gated recurrent unit to construct the health indicator. The results state that the proposed method shows the enhance performance than the related studies which have used the same bearing dataset provided by PRONOSTIA.

Keywords: continuous wavelet transform, convolution neural net-work, gated recurrent unit, health indicators, remaining useful life

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19881 A New Method Presentation for Locating Fault in Power Distribution Feeders Considering DG

Authors: Rahman Dashti, Ehsan Gord

Abstract:

In this paper, an improved impedance based fault location method is proposed. In this method, online fault locating is performed using voltage and current information at the beginning of the feeder. Determining precise fault location in a short time increases reliability and efficiency of the system. The proposed method utilizes information about main component of voltage and current at the beginning of the feeder and distributed generation unit (DGU) in order to precisely locate different faults in acceptable time. To evaluate precision and accuracy of the proposed method, a 13-node is simulated and tested using MATLAB.

Keywords: distribution network, fault section determination, distributed generation units, distribution protection equipment

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19880 AI-Driven Forecasting Models for Anticipating Oil Market Trends and Demand

Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

Abstract:

The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.

Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning

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19879 Effect of Graded Levels of Detoxified Jatropha cursas on the Performance Characteristics of Cockerel Birds

Authors: W. S. Lawal, T. Akande

Abstract:

Abstract— Four (4) difference methods were employed to detoxify Jatropha carcas, they were physical method (it include soaking and sun drying) Chemical (the use of methylated sprit, hexane and methane). Biological (the use of Aspergillus niger and then sundry for 7days and then Bacillus lichiformis) and Combined method (the combination of chemical and biological methods). Phobol esther analysis was carried out after the detoxification methods and it was found that the combined method is better off (P<0.05). Detoxified Jatropha from each of this methods was sundry and grinded for easy inclusion into poultry feed, detoxified jatropha was included at 0%, 0.5%, 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, and 5% but the combined method was increased up to 7% because the birds were able to tolerate it, the 0% was the control experiment. 405 day old broiler chicks was used to test the effect of detoxified Jatropha carcas on their performance, there are 5birds per treatment and there are 3 replicates, the experiment lasted for 8weeks,highest number of mortality was obtained in physical method, birds in chemical method tolerated up to 3% Jatropha carcas, biological method is better, as birds there were comfortable at 5% but the best of them is combined method the birds did very well at 7% as there were less mortality and highest weight gain was achieved here (P<0.05) and it was recommended.

Keywords: phobol esther, inclusion level, tolerance level, Jatropha carcas

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19878 A Comparative Study on Electrical Characteristics of Au/n-SiC structure, with and Without Zn-Doped PVA Interfacial Layer at Room Temperature

Authors: M. H. Aldahrob, A. Kokce, S. Altindal, H. E. Lapa

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In order to obtain the detailed information about the effect of (Zn-doped PVA) interfacial layer, surface states (Nss) and series resistance (Rs) on electrical characteristics, both Au/n- type 4H-SiC (MS) with and without (Zn doped PVA) interfacial layer were fabricated to compare. The main electrical parameters of them were investigated using forward and reverse bias current-voltage (I-V), capacitance-voltage (C-V) and conductance –voltage (G/W –V) measurements were performed at room temperature. Experimental results show that the value of ideality factor (n), zero –bias barrier height (ΦBo), Rs, rectifier rate (RR=IF/IR) and the density of Nss are strong functions interfacial layer and applied bias voltage. The energy distribution profile of Nss was obtained from forward bias I-V data by taking into account voltage dependent effective BH (ΦBo) and ideality factor (n(V)). Voltage dependent profile of Rs was also obtained both by using Ohm’s law and Nicollian and Brew methods. The other main diode parameters such as the concentration of doping donor atom (ND), Fermi energy level (EF).BH (ΦBo), depletion layer with (WD) were obtained by using the intercept and slope of the reverse bias C-2 vs V plots. It was found that (Zn-doped PVA) interfacial layer lead to a quite decrease in the values Nss, Rs and leakage current and increase in shunt resistance (Rsh) and RR. Therefore, we can say that the use of thin (Zn-doped PVA) interfacial layer can quite improved the performance of MS structure.

Keywords: interfacial polymer layer, thickness dependence, electric and dielectric properties, series resistance, interface state

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19877 Groundwater Seepage Estimation into Amirkabir Tunnel Using Analytical Methods and DEM and SGR Method

Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

Abstract:

In this paper, groundwater seepage into Amirkabir tunnel has been estimated using analytical and numerical methods for 14 different sections of the tunnel. Site Groundwater Rating (SGR) method also has been performed for qualitative and quantitative classification of the tunnel sections. The obtained results of above-mentioned methods were compared together. The study shows reasonable accordance with results of the all methods unless for two sections of tunnel. In these two sections there are some significant discrepancies between numerical and analytical results mainly originated from model geometry and high overburden. SGR and the analytical and numerical calculations, confirm the high concentration of seepage inflow in fault zones. Maximum seepage flow into tunnel has been estimated 0.425 lit/sec/m using analytical method and 0.628 lit/sec/m using numerical method occurred in crashed zone. Based on SGR method, six sections of 14 sections in Amirkabir tunnel axis are found to be in "No Risk" class that is supported by the analytical and numerical seepage value of less than 0.04 lit/sec/m.

Keywords: water Seepage, Amirkabir Tunnel, analytical method, DEM, SGR

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19876 Imputation of Incomplete Large-Scale Monitoring Count Data via Penalized Estimation

Authors: Mohamed Dakki, Genevieve Robin, Marie Suet, Abdeljebbar Qninba, Mohamed A. El Agbani, Asmâa Ouassou, Rhimou El Hamoumi, Hichem Azafzaf, Sami Rebah, Claudia Feltrup-Azafzaf, Nafouel Hamouda, Wed a.L. Ibrahim, Hosni H. Asran, Amr A. Elhady, Haitham Ibrahim, Khaled Etayeb, Essam Bouras, Almokhtar Saied, Ashrof Glidan, Bakar M. Habib, Mohamed S. Sayoud, Nadjiba Bendjedda, Laura Dami, Clemence Deschamps, Elie Gaget, Jean-Yves Mondain-Monval, Pierre Defos Du Rau

Abstract:

In biodiversity monitoring, large datasets are becoming more and more widely available and are increasingly used globally to estimate species trends and con- servation status. These large-scale datasets challenge existing statistical analysis methods, many of which are not adapted to their size, incompleteness and heterogeneity. The development of scalable methods to impute missing data in incomplete large-scale monitoring datasets is crucial to balance sampling in time or space and thus better inform conservation policies. We developed a new method based on penalized Poisson models to impute and analyse incomplete monitoring data in a large-scale framework. The method al- lows parameterization of (a) space and time factors, (b) the main effects of predic- tor covariates, as well as (c) space–time interactions. It also benefits from robust statistical and computational capability in large-scale settings. The method was tested extensively on both simulated and real-life waterbird data, with the findings revealing that it outperforms six existing methods in terms of missing data imputation errors. Applying the method to 16 waterbird species, we estimated their long-term trends for the first time at the entire North African scale, a region where monitoring data suffer from many gaps in space and time series. This new approach opens promising perspectives to increase the accuracy of species-abundance trend estimations. We made it freely available in the r package ‘lori’ (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=lori) and recommend its use for large- scale count data, particularly in citizen science monitoring programmes.

Keywords: biodiversity monitoring, high-dimensional statistics, incomplete count data, missing data imputation, waterbird trends in North-Africa

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19875 On the Derivation of Variable Step BBDF for Solving Second Order Stiff ODEs

Authors: S. A. M. Yatim, Z. B. Ibrahim, K. I. Othman, M. Suleiman

Abstract:

The method of solving second order stiff ordinary differential equation (ODEs) that is based on backward differentiation formula (BDF) is considered in this paper. We derived the method by increasing the order of the existing method using an improved strategy in choosing the step size. Numerical results are presented to compare the efficiency of the proposed method to the MATLAB’s suite of ODEs solvers namely ode15s and ode23s. The method was found to be efficient to solve second order ordinary differential equation.

Keywords: backward differentiation formulae, block backward differentiation formulae, stiff ordinary differential equation, variable step size

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19874 The Cultural Adaptation of a Social and Emotional Learning Program for an Intervention in Saudi Arabia’s Preschools

Authors: Malak Alqaydhi

Abstract:

A problem in the Saudi Arabia education system is that there is a lack of curriculum- based Social, emotional learning (SEL) teaching practices with the pedagogical concept of SEL yet to be practiced in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Furthermore, voices of teachers and parents have not been captured regarding the use of SEL, particularly in preschools. The importance of this research is to help determine, with the input of teachers and mothers of preschoolers, the efficacy of a culturally adapted SEL program. The purpose of this research is to determine the most appropriate SEL intervention method to appropriately apply in the cultural context of the Saudi preschool classroom setting. The study will use a mixed method exploratory sequential research design, applying qualitative and quantitative approaches including semi-structured interviews with teachers and parents of preschoolers and an experimental research approach. The research will proceed in four phases beginning with a series of interviews with Saudi preschool teachers and mothers, whose voices and perceptions will help guide the second phase of selection and adaptation of a suitable SEL preschool program. The third phase will be the implementation of the intervention by the researcher in the preschool classroom environment, which will be facilitated by the researcher’s cultural proficiency and practical experience in Saudi Arabia. The fourth and final phase will be an evaluation to assess the effectiveness of the trialled SEL among the preschool student participants. The significance of this research stems from its contribution to knowledge about SEL in culturally appropriate Saudi preschools and the opportunity to support initiatives for Saudi early childhood educators to consider implementing SEL programs. The findings from the study may be useful to inform the Saudi Ministry of Education and its curriculum designers about SEL programs, which could be beneficial to trial more widely in the Saudi preschool curriculum.

Keywords: social emotional learning, preschool children, saudi Arabia, child behavior

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19873 Downside Risk Analysis of the Nigerian Stock Market: A Value at Risk Approach

Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

Abstract:

This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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19872 High Temperature Behaviour of Various Limestone Used in Heritage Buildings at Material and Block Scales

Authors: Ayoub Daoudi, Javad Eslami, Anne-Lise Beaucour, Martin Vigroux, Albert Noumowé

Abstract:

As a fact, many cultural heritage masonry buildings have undergone violent fires during their history. In order to investigate the high temperature behaviour of stone masonry, six French limestones were heated to 600 °C at a rate of 9 °C/min. The main focus is the comparison between the high temperature behaviour of stones at the material and at the structural scale. In order to evaluate the risk of spalling, the tests have been carried out on the stone blocks (12x30x30 cm) instrumented with thermocouples and subjected to an unidirectional heating on one face. Thereafter, visual assessments and non-destructive measurements (dynamic elastic modulus) performed on blocks demonstrate a different behaviour from what was observed at the material scale. Finally, a series of thermo-mechanical computations, using finite element method, allowed us to highlight the difference between the behaviour of stones at material and block scales.

Keywords: limestones, hight temperature behaviour, damage, thermo-mechanical modeling, material and blocks scales, color change

Procedia PDF Downloads 87