Search results for: price of anarchy
382 Impact of Tobacco Control Policy to Cancer Mortalities in South Africa
Authors: Cyprian M. Mostert
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This paper investigates the effectiveness of tobacco control policy (TCP) in averting cancer mortalities in both educated and uneducated segments of the South African population. A two-stage least squares model (2SLS) was used covering the period 2009-2013. The results show that the TCP caused a 26 percent average decrease in cancer mortalities in both educated and uneducated segment of the population. However, limiting the sales of cheap and illegal tobacco cigarettes is necessary for advancing the effectiveness of TCP in averting cancer mortalities in the uneducated population — as the paper noted an insignificant decrease in cancer mortalities in 2012-2013 due to the presence of cheaper cigarettes. The paper also discovered evidence of persisting tobacco purchases of branded cigarettes in the educated population group which limited the effectiveness of TCP in 2009-2011. Hikes in real tobacco tax to a 0.8 USD price level in 2012 limited tobacco consumption in the educated group resulting in a 29 percent decrease in cancer mortalities. Other developing countries may learn from the South African case and strive to limit the sales of cheap illegal cigarettes while hiking real tobacco tax of branded cigarettes as a key strategy to improve cancer deaths across educated and uneducated population groups.Keywords: cancer, health policy, health system, tobacco tax
Procedia PDF Downloads 140381 Decomposition of Factors Affecting Farmers Net Income Variation of Potato Crop Production in Bangladesh
Authors: M. Shah Alamgir, Jun Furuya, Shintaro Kobayashi, M. Abdus Salam
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Farmers’ environmental and economic situations are very diverse. In order to develop effective policies and technologies to improve farmers’ life standard, it is important to understand which factors induce the diversity of agricultural income. Analyze both primary and secondary data, this study applied descriptive, inferential statistical tools, and econometric techniques. From the study, farmers of Sylhet Division produce potato as one of the main cash crop with other seasonal crops. The total costs of potato production per hectare varied in different districts of Sylhet division in addition seed and hired labor cost has the biggest share of the full cost. To grasp the diversity of income, the study decomposes the variance of net income into different factors of potato production. Through this decomposition, seed cost is the important factors of income variability and it is the most important sector to induce total cost disparity for potato production. The result shows that 73% of net income variation is explained by gross income. It implies that potato yield or potato price (quality) or both vary widely among farmers. This finding is important of policymaking and technology development of agricultural farming in Bangladesh.Keywords: agricultural income, seed, hired labor, technology development
Procedia PDF Downloads 416380 Proposition on Improving Environmental Forensic System in China
Authors: Huilei Wang, Yuanfeng Wang
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In the early period of China, economy developed rapidly at the cost of environment. Recently, it is generally recognized that the heavily polluted environment not only puts a brake on economic development but also paces negative impact on people’ health as well as probably next decades of generations. Accordingly, the latest Environmental Protection Law revised in 2014 makes a clear-cut division of environmental responsibility and regulates stricter penalties of breaching law. As the new environmental law is enforced gradually, environmental forensic is increasingly required in the process of ascertaining facts in judicial proceedings of environmental cases. Based on the outcomes of documentary analysis for all environmental cases judged on the basis of new environmental law, it is concluded that there still exists problems in present system of environmental forensic. Thus, this paper is aimed to make proposition on improving Chinese environmental forensic system, which involves: (i) promoting capability of environmental forensic system (EFS) to handle professional questions; (ii) develop price mechanism; (iii) multi-departments cooperate to establish unifying and complete EFS system;(iv) enhance the probative value of results of EFS. Such protocol for amending present regulation on environmental forensic is of significant importance because a quality report of environmental forensic will contributes to providing strong probative evidence of culprits’ activity of releasing contaminant into environment, degree of damages for victims and above all, causality between the behavior of public nuisance and damages.Keywords: China, environmental cases, environmental forensic system, proposition
Procedia PDF Downloads 370379 City-Wide Simulation on the Effects of Optimal Appliance Scheduling in a Time-of-Use Residential Environment
Authors: Rudolph Carl Barrientos, Juwaln Diego Descallar, Rainer James Palmiano
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Household Appliance Scheduling Systems (HASS) coupled with a Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing scheme, a form of Demand Side Management (DSM), is not widely utilized in the Philippines’ residential electricity sector. This paper’s goal is to encourage distribution utilities (DUs) to adopt HASS and TOU by analyzing the effect of household schedulers on the electricity price and load profile in a residential environment. To establish this, a city based on an implemented survey is generated using Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA). Then, a Binary Particle Swarm Optimization (BPSO) algorithm-based HASS is developed considering user satisfaction, electricity budget, appliance prioritization, energy storage systems, solar power, and electric vehicles. The simulations were assessed under varying levels of user compliance. Results showed that the average electricity cost, peak demand, and peak-to-average ratio (PAR) of the city load profile were all reduced. Therefore, the deployment of the HASS and TOU pricing scheme is beneficial for both stakeholders.Keywords: appliance scheduling, DSM, TOU, BPSO, city-wide simulation, electric vehicle, appliance prioritization, energy storage system, solar power
Procedia PDF Downloads 93378 Social Media Retailing in the Creator Economy
Authors: Julianne Cai, Weili Xue, Yibin Wu
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Social media retailing (SMR) platforms have become popular nowadays. It is characterized by a creative combination of content creation and product selling, which differs from traditional e-tailing (TE) with product selling alone. Motivated by real-world practices like social media platforms “TikTok” and douyin.com, we endeavor to study if the SMR model performs better than the TE model in a monopoly setting. By building a stylized economic model, we find that the SMR model does not always outperform the TE model. Specifically, when the SMR platform collects less commission from the seller than the TE platform, the seller, consumers, and social welfare all benefit more from the SMR model. In contrast, the platform benefits more from the SMR model if and only if the creator’s social influence is high enough or the cost of content creation is small enough. For the incentive structure of the content rewards in the SMR model, we found that a strong incentive mechanism (e.g., the quadratic form) is more powerful than a weak one (e.g., the linear form). The previous one will encourage the creator to choose a much higher quality level of content creation and meanwhile allowing the platform, consumers, and social welfare to become better off. Counterintuitively, providing more generous content rewards is not always helpful for the creator (seller), and it may reduce her profit. Our findings will guide the platform to effectively design incentive mechanisms to boost the content creation and retailing in the SMR model and help the influencers efficiently create content, engage their followers (fans), and price their products sold on the SMR platform.Keywords: content creation, creator economy, incentive strategy, platform retailing
Procedia PDF Downloads 103377 A Study of Customer Aggression towards Frontline Employees in Some Hotels in Imo State, Nigeria
Authors: Polycarp A. Igbojekwe, Chizoba Amajuoyi, Peterson Nwokorie
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The main purpose of this study was to carry out a survey of customer’s aggression towards hotel workers and make contributions on the prevalence and rationale behind customer’s aggression. Data for the study were gathered with a four-point Likert type rating scale. Samples were drawn from frontline hotel employees, managers and customers of twelve (12) hotels selected from three zones of Imo State. Data analyses were conducted using simple percentage, descriptive statistics; and Z-test statistical technique was used to test hypotheses. Among other factors, service failure and verbal abuse by service providers and poor quality product compared to price were identified by customers as the three major factors that can lead to customer aggression. Frontline employees indentified verbal abuse as the most common mode of aggression and that customer aggression causes emotional disturbance in them. The study also revealed that customer aggression is more prevalent in the 1&2 star hotels than it is in 3-5 star hotels. Most of the hotels have not institutionalized systematic approaches needed to effectively face the challenges of customer aggression, thus, customer aggression has become a common feature in the industry. Frontline jobs demand high emotional input. Therefore, we recommend that frontline employees should be given emotional support by their managers and also trained on how to cope with emotional disturbance.Keywords: customer aggression, emotional disturbance, employee well-being, service failure, verbal abuse
Procedia PDF Downloads 273376 Quality Determinants of Client Satisfaction: A Case Study of ACE-Australian Consulting Engineers, Sydney, Australia
Authors: Elham S. Hasham, Anthony S. Hasham
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The construction industry is one of Australia’s fastest growing industries and its success is a result of a firm’s client satisfaction with focus on product determinants such as price and quality. Ensuring quality at every phase is a must and building rapport with the client will go a long way. To capitalise on the growing demand for Engineering Consulting Firms (ECFs), we should “redefine the bottom line by allowing client satisfaction, high-quality standards, and profits to be the top priorities”. Consequently, the emphasis should be on improving employee skills through various training provisions. Clients seek consistency and thus expect that all services should be similar in respect to quality and the ability of the service to meet their needs. This calls for empowerment and comfortable work conditions to motivate employees and give them incentive to deliver quality and excellent output. The methodology utilized is triangulation-a combination of both quantitative and qualitative research. The case study-Australian Consulting Engineers (ACE) was established in 1995 and has operations throughout Australia, the Philippines, Europe, U.A.E., K.S.A., and Lebanon. ACE is affiliated with key agencies and support organizations in the engineering industry with International Organization for Standardization (ISO) certifications in Safety and Quality Management. The objective of this study is significant as it sheds light on employee motivation and client satisfaction as imperative determinants of the success of an organization.Keywords: leadership, motivation, organizational behavior, satisfaction
Procedia PDF Downloads 57375 International Financial Reporting Standard Adoption and Value Relevance of Earnings in Listed Consumer Goods Companies in Nigerian
Authors: Muktar Haruna
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This research work examines the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) adoption and value relevance of earnings of listed consumer goods companies in the Nigerian. The population of the study comprises 22 listed consumer goods companies, out of which 15 were selected as sample size of the study. The scope of the study is a 12-year period covering from 2006 to 2018. Secondary data from the annual report of sampled companies were used, which consists of earnings per share (EPS), the book value of equity per share (BVE) as independent variables; firm size (FSZ) as a control variable, and market share price of sampled companies from Nigerian stock exchange as dependent variable. Multiple regressions were used to analyze the data. The results of the study showed that IFRS did not improve the value relevance of earnings after the adoption, which translates to a decrease in value relevance of accounting numbers in the post-adoption period. The major recommendation is that the Nigerian Reporting Council should ensure full compliance to all provisions of IFRS and provide uniformity in the presentation of non-current assets in the statement of financial position, where some present only net current assets leaving individual figures for current assets and liabilities invisible.Keywords: IFRS, adoption, value relevance, earning per share, book value of equity per share
Procedia PDF Downloads 143374 Foresight in Food Supply System in Bogota
Authors: Suarez-Puello Alejandro, Baquero-Ruiz Andrés F, Suarez-Puello Rodrigo
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This paper discusses the results of a foresight exercise which analyzes Bogota’s fruit, vegetable and tuber supply chain strategy- described at the Food Supply and Security Master Plan (FSSMP)-to provide the inhabitants of Bogotá, Colombia, with basic food products at a fair price. The methodology consisted of using quantitative and qualitative foresight tools such as system dynamics and variable selection methods to better represent interactions among stakeholders and obtain more integral results that could shed light on this complex situation. At first, the Master Plan is an input to establish the objectives and scope of the exercise. Then, stakeholders and their relationships are identified. Later, system dynamics is used to model product, information and money flow along the fruit, vegetable and tuber supply chain. Two scenarios are presented, discussing actions by the public sector and the reactions that could be expected from the whole food supply system. Finally, these impacts are compared to the Food Supply and Security Master Plan’s objectives suggesting recommendations that could improve its execution. This foresight exercise performed at a governmental level is intended to promote the widen the use of foresight as an anticipatory, decision-making tool that offers solutions to complex problems.Keywords: decision making, foresight, public policies, supply chain, system dynamics
Procedia PDF Downloads 433373 The Consumption of Limited Edition Products in Soccer Clubs of Southern Brazil
Authors: Eduardo Wiebbelling, Marcelo Curth
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Among the sporting modalities, soccer stands out as the one that reached the world's largest spray today, moving large monetary sums. However, the modality presents potential to be explored by the agents inserted in it. New advertising campaigns have overwhelmed the media and the consumption of sports goods, especially soccer, has increased over the years by having experts increase their marketing projects linked to this specific area. However, little is studied about consumer behavior regarding the purchase of specific products linked to the club. In this sense, the research aims to understand the reasons that lead the fans of two rival clubs in southern Brazil to consume limited edition products from their respective soccer clubs. The method used was an in-depth exploratory survey with thirty memberships and non-memberships. The results showed that in the group of memberships the main motivations are emotional, of historical rescue from memories and feelings that arouse in the fan when they remember their idols and the titles conquered by the club. In the group of non-memberships, a more rational and objective view was perceived, involving aspects such as promotion, utility and extra benefits. Finally, it is realized that fans generally do not value the products to be limited edition. It is believed that this is due to the fact that the products are usually marketed at a higher price when compared to similar products offered on a regular basis.Keywords: consumer behavior, limited edition, soccer, sports marketing
Procedia PDF Downloads 337372 Analyzing Risk and Expected Return of Lenders in the Shared Mortgage Program of Korea
Authors: Keunock Lew, Seungryul Ma
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The paper analyzes risk and expected return of lenders who provide mortgage loans to households in the shared mortgage program of Korea. In 2013, the Korean government introduced the mortgage program to help low income householders to convert their renting into purchasing houses. The financial source for the mortgage program is the Urban Housing Fund set up by the Korean government. Through the program, low income households can borrow money from lenders to buy a house at a very low interest rate (e.g. 1 % per year) for a long time. The motivation of adopting this mortgage program by the Korean government is that the cost of renting houses has been rapidly increased especially in large urban areas during the past decade, which became financial difficulties to low income households who do not have their own houses. As the analysis methodology, the paper uses a spread sheet model for projecting cash flows of the mortgage product over the period of loan contract. It also employs Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the risk and expected yield of the lenders with assumption that the future housing price and market rate of interest follow a stochastic process. The study results will give valuable implications to the Korean government and lenders who want to stabilize the mortgage program and innovate the related loan products.Keywords: expected return, Monte Carlo simulation, risk, shared mortgage program
Procedia PDF Downloads 267371 Application of the EU Commission Waste Management Methodology Level(s) to a Construction and a Demolition in North-West Romania.
Authors: Valean Maria
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Construction and demolition waste management is a timely topic, due to the urgency of its transition to sustainability. This sector is responsible for over a third of the waste generated in the E.U., while the legislation requires a proportion of at least 70% preparation for reuse and recycle, excluding backfilling. To this end, the E.U. Commission has provided the Level(s) methodology, allowing for the standardized planning and reporting of waste quantities across all levels of the construction process, from the architecture, to the demolition, from the estimation stage, to the actual measurements at the end of the operations. We applied Level(s) for the first time to the Romanian context, a developing E.U. country in which illegal dumping of contruction waste in nature and landfills, are still common practice. We performed the desk study of the buildings’ documents, followed by field studies of the sites, and finally the insertion and calculation of statistical data of the construction and demolition waste. We learned that Romania is far from the E.U. average in terms of the initial estimations of waste, with some numbers being higher, others lower, and that the price of evacuation to landfills is significantly lower in the developing country, a possible barrier to adopting the new regulations. Finally, we found that concrete is the predominant type waste, in terms of quantity as well as cost of disposal. Further directions of research are provided, such as mapping out all of the alternative facilities in the region and the calculation of the financial costs and of the CO2 footprint, for preparing and delivering waste sustainably, for a more sound and locally adapted model of waste management.Keywords: construction, waste, management, levels, EU
Procedia PDF Downloads 74370 Analysis of Energy Efficiency Behavior with the Use of Train Dynamics Simulator and Statistical Tools: Case Study of Vitoria Minas Railway, Brazil
Authors: Eric Wilson Santos Cabral, Marta Monteiro Da Costa Cruz, Fabio Luis Maciel Machado, Henrique Andrade, Rodrigo Pirola Pestana, Vivian Andrea Parreira
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The large variation in the price of diesel in Brazil directly affects the variable cost of companies operating in the transportation sector. In rail transport, the great challenge is to overcome the annual budget, cargo and ore transported with cost reduction in relation to previous years, becoming more efficient every year. Some effective measures are necessary to achieve the reduction of the liter ratio consumed by KTKB (Gross Ton per Kilometer multiplied by thousand). This acronym represents the indicator of energy efficiency of some railroads in the world. This study is divided into two parts: the first, to identify using statistical tools, part of the controlled variables in the railways, which have a correlation with the energy efficiency indicator, seeking to aid decision-making. The second, with the use of the train dynamics simulator, within scenarios defined in the operational reality of a railroad, seeks to optimize the train formations and the train stop model for the change of train drivers. With the completion of the study, companies in the rail sector are expected to be able to reduce some of their transportation costs.Keywords: railway transport, railway simulation, energy efficiency, fuel consumption
Procedia PDF Downloads 329369 Statistical Analysis of Parameters Effects on Maximum Strain and Torsion Angle of FRP Honeycomb Sandwich Panels Subjected to Torsion
Authors: Mehdi Modabberifar, Milad Roodi, Ehsan Souri
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In recent years, honeycomb fiber reinforced plastic (FRP) sandwich panels have been increasingly used in various industries. Low weight, low price, and high mechanical strength are the benefits of these structures. However, their mechanical properties and behavior have not been fully explored. The objective of this study is to conduct a combined numerical-statistical investigation of honeycomb FRP sandwich beams subject to torsion load. In this paper, the effect of geometric parameters of the sandwich panel on the maximum shear strain in both face and core and angle of torsion in a honeycomb FRP sandwich structures in torsion is investigated. The effect of Parameters including core thickness, face skin thickness, cell shape, cell size, and cell thickness on mechanical behavior of the structure were numerically investigated. Main effects of factors were considered in this paper and regression equations were derived. Taguchi method was employed as experimental design and an optimum parameter combination for the maximum structure stiffness has been obtained. The results showed that cell size and face skin thickness have the most significant impacts on torsion angle, maximum shear strain in face and core.Keywords: finite element, honeycomb FRP sandwich panel, torsion, civil engineering
Procedia PDF Downloads 410368 The Influence of Housing Choice Vouchers on the Private Rental Market
Authors: Randy D. Colon
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Through a freedom of information request, data pertaining to Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) households has been obtained from the Chicago Housing Authority, including rent price and number of bedrooms per HCV household, community area, and zip code from 2013 to the first quarter of 2018. Similar data pertaining to the private rental market will be obtained through public records found through the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development. The datasets will be analyzed through statistical and mapping software to investigate the potential link between HCV households and distorted rent prices. Quantitative data will be supplemented by qualitative data to investigate the lived experience of Chicago residents. Qualitative data will be collected at community meetings in the Chicago Englewood neighborhood through participation in neighborhood meetings and informal interviews with residents and community leaders. The qualitative data will be used to gain insight on the lived experience of community leaders and residents of the Englewood neighborhood in relation to housing, the rental market, and HCV. While there is an abundance of quantitative data on this subject, this qualitative data is necessary to capture the lived experience of local residents effected by a changing rental market. This topic reflects concerns voiced by members of the Englewood community, and this study aims to keep the community relevant in its findings.Keywords: Chicago, housing, housing choice voucher program, housing subsidies, rental market
Procedia PDF Downloads 110367 The Comparative Analysis of International Financial Reporting Standart Adoption through Earnings Response Coefficient and Conservatism Principle: Case Study in Jakarta Islamic Index 2010 – 2014
Authors: Dwi Wijiastutik, Tarjo, Yuni Rimawati
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The purpose of this empirical study is to analyse how to the market reaction and the conservative degree changes on the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standart (IFRS) through Jakarta Islamic Index. The study also has given others additional analysis on the profitability, capital structure and size company toward IFRS adoption. The data collection methods used in this study reveals as secondary data and deep analysis to the company’s annual report and daily price stock at yahoo finance. We analyse 40 companies listed on Jakarta Islamic Index from 2010 to 2014. The result of the study concluded that IFRS has given a different on the depth analysis to the two of variance analysis: Moderated Regression Analysis and Wilcoxon Signed Rank to test developed hypotheses. Our result on the regression analysis shows that market response and conservatism principle is not significantly after IFRS Adoption in Jakarta Islamic Index. Furthermore, in addition, analysis on profitability, capital structure, and company size show that significantly after IFRS adoption. The findings of our study help investor by showing the impact of IFRS for making decided investment.Keywords: IFRS, earnings response coefficient, conservatism principle
Procedia PDF Downloads 264366 Educating Empathy: Combining Active Listening and Moral Discovery to Facilitate Prosocial Connection
Authors: Erika Price, Lisa Johnson
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Cognitive and dispositional empathy is decreasing among students worldwide, particularly those at university. This paper looks at the effects of encouraging empathetic positioning in divisive topics by teaching listening skills and moral discovery to university students. Two groups of university students were given the assignment to interview individuals they disagreed with on social issues (e.g. abortion, gun control, legalization of drugs, involvement in Ukraine, etc.). One group completed the assignment with no other instruction. The second group completed the assignment after receiving instruction in active listening and Jonathan Haidt’s theory of moral foundations in politics. Results show that when students are given both active listening techniques and awareness of moral foundations, they are significantly more likely to have socially positive interactions with those they disagree with on issues as compared to those who listen passively to ideological opponents. As students interacted with those they disagreed with, they evidenced prosocial behaviors of acknowledgement, validation, and even commonalities with their opponents’ viewpoints, signifying a heartening trend of empathetic connection that is waning in students. The research suggests that empathy is a skill that can be nurtured by active listening but that it is more fully cultivated when paired with the concept of moral foundations underpinning political ideologies. These findings shed light on how to create more effective pedagogies for social and emotional learning, as well as inclusion.Keywords: empathy, listening skills, moral discovery, pedagogy, prosocial behavior
Procedia PDF Downloads 64365 Growth and Laying Performance of Commercial Hens Fed with Varying Levels of Trichanthera gigantea (Nees.) Leaf Meal
Authors: Carmel Khrisna Wong Moreno, Dinah M. Espina
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The increasing price of feed ingredients has prompted farmers to seek feasible feed alternatives like the utilization of locally-grown protein-rich feedstuff which is cheaper but gives a positive result in poultry production. Trichanthera gigantea, a fodder tree which is an excellent alternative as feed ingredient in the Philippines has now gained popularity as feed supplement. This study was conducted to determine the growth and laying performance of commercial hens fed with varying levels of Trichanthera gigantea leaf meal. The incorporation of Trichanthera gigantea leaf meal at 5%, 10%, and 15% into the diet of commercial hens did not affect the growth and laying performance. Results of the study revealed that the weight gain of the birds fed with Trichanthera gigantea supplemented diets was not significantly different with the control (100% commercial layer mash). The voluntary feed intake, feed conversion ratio, weekly average egg weight and egg production of the commercial hens fed with T. gigantea leaf meal supplemented diets were not significantly different from the control. Results of the study showed that the supplementation of Trichanthera gigantea leaf meal of up to 15% into the diets of commercial hens is highly acceptable since it does not affect the growth and laying performance of the birds. In addition, it would mean a 15% savings in production cost from commercial feeds.Keywords: egg production, growth, laying performance, trichanthera gigantea (nees)
Procedia PDF Downloads 413364 The Studies of Client Requirements in Home Stay: A Case Study of Thailand
Authors: Kanamon Suwantada
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The purpose of this research is to understand customer’s expectations towards homestays and to establish the precise strategies to increase numbers of tourists for homestay business in Amphawa district, Samutsongkram, Thailand. The researcher aims to ensure that each host provides experiences to travelers who are looking for and determining new targets for homestay business in Amphawa as well as creating sustainable homestay using marketing strategies to increase customers. The methods allow interview and questionnaire to gain both overview data from the tourists and qualitative data from the homestay owner’s perspective to create a GAP analysis. The data was collected from 200 tourists, during 15th May - 30th July, 2011 from homestay in Amphawa Community. The questionnaires were divided into three sections: the demographic profile, customer information and influencing on purchasing position, and customer expectation towards homestay. The analysis, in fact, will be divided into two methods which are percentage and correlation analyses. The result of this research revealed that homestay had already provided customers with reasonable prices in good locations. Antithetically, activities that they offered still could not have met the customer’s requirements. Homestay providers should prepare additional activities such as village tour, local attraction tour, village daily life experiences, local ceremony participation, and interactive conversation with local people. Moreover, the results indicated that a price was the most important factor for choosing homestay.Keywords: ecotourism, homestay, marketing, sufficiency economic philosophy
Procedia PDF Downloads 306363 Time Series Modelling for Forecasting Wheat Production and Consumption of South Africa in Time of War
Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande
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Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa
Procedia PDF Downloads 93362 Production Planning for Animal Food Industry under Demand Uncertainty
Authors: Pirom Thangchitpianpol, Suttipong Jumroonrut
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This research investigates the distribution of food demand for animal food and the optimum amount of that food production at minimum cost. The data consist of customer purchase orders for the food of laying hens, price of food for laying hens, cost per unit for the food inventory, cost related to food of laying hens in which the food is out of stock, such as fine, overtime, urgent purchase for material. They were collected from January, 1990 to December, 2013 from a factory in Nakhonratchasima province. The collected data are analyzed in order to explore the distribution of the monthly food demand for the laying hens and to see the rate of inventory per unit. The results are used in a stochastic linear programming model for aggregate planning in which the optimum production or minimum cost could be obtained. Programming algorithms in MATLAB and tools in Linprog software are used to get the solution. The distribution of the food demand for laying hens and the random numbers are used in the model. The study shows that the distribution of monthly food demand for laying has a normal distribution, the monthly average amount (unit: 30 kg) of production from January to December. The minimum total cost average for 12 months is Baht 62,329,181.77. Therefore, the production planning can reduce the cost by 14.64% from real cost.Keywords: animal food, stochastic linear programming, aggregate planning, production planning, demand uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 371361 Evaluating the Nexus between Energy Demand and Economic Growth Using the VECM Approach: Case Study of Nigeria, China, and the United States
Authors: Rita U. Onolemhemhen, Saheed L. Bello, Akin P. Iwayemi
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The effectiveness of energy demand policy depends on identifying the key drivers of energy demand both in the short-run and the long-run. This paper examines the influence of regional differences on the link between energy demand and other explanatory variables for Nigeria, China and USA using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. This study employed annual time series data on energy consumption (ED), real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (RGDP), real energy prices (P) and urbanization (N) for a thirty-six-year sample period. The utilized time-series data are sourced from World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI, 2016) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Results from the study, shows that all the independent variables (income, urbanization, and price) substantially affect the long-run energy consumption in Nigeria, USA and China, whereas, income has no significant effect on short-run energy demand in USA and Nigeria. In addition, the long-run effect of urbanization is relatively stronger in China. Urbanization is a key factor in energy demand, it therefore recommended that more attention should be given to the development of rural communities to reduce the inflow of migrants into urban communities which causes the increase in energy demand and energy excesses should be penalized while energy management should be incentivized.Keywords: economic growth, energy demand, income, real GDP, urbanization, VECM
Procedia PDF Downloads 306360 Analyzing the Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Interconnectedness of Asian Stock Markets Using Network Science
Authors: Jitendra Aswani
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In the first section of this study, impact of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the synchronization of fourteen Asian Stock Markets (ASM’s) of countries like Hong Kong, India, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, China, Philippines and Sri Lanka, has been analysed using the network science and its metrics like degree of node, clustering coefficient and network density. Then in the second section of this study by introducing the US stock market in existing network and developing a Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) spread of crisis from the US stock market to Asian Stock Markets (ASM) has been explained. Data used for this study is adjusted the closing price of these indices from 6th January, 2000 to 15th September, 2013 which further divided into three sub-periods: Pre, during and post-crisis. Using network analysis, it is found that Asian stock markets become more interdependent during the crisis than pre and post crisis, and also Hong Kong, India, South Korea and Japan are systemic important stock markets in the Asian region. Therefore, failure or shock to any of these systemic important stock markets can cause contagion to another stock market of this region. This study is useful for global investors’ in portfolio management especially during the crisis period and also for policy makers in formulating the financial regulation norms by knowing the connections between the stock markets and how the system of these stock markets changes in crisis period and after that.Keywords: global financial crisis, Asian stock markets, network science, Kruskal algorithm
Procedia PDF Downloads 411359 Evaluating the Effect of Splitting Wind Farms on Power Output
Authors: Nazanin Naderi, Milton Smith
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Since worldwide demand for renewable energy is increasing rapidly because of the climate problem and the limitation of fossil fuels, technologies of alternative energy sources have been developed and the electric power network now includes renewable energy resources such as wind energy. Because of the huge advantages that wind energy has, like reduction in natural gas use, price pressure, emissions of greenhouse gases and other atmospheric pollutants, electric sector water consumption and many other contributions to the nation’s economy like job creation it has got too much attention these days from different parts of the world especially in the United States which is trying to provide 20% of the nation’s energy from wind by 2030. This study is trying to evaluate the effect of splitting wind farms on power output. We are trying to find if we can get more output by installing wind turbines in different sites rather than installing all wind turbines in one site. Five potential sites in Texas have been selected as a case study and two years wind data has been gathered for these sites. Wind data are analyzed and effect of correlation between sites on power output has been evaluated. Standard deviation and autocorrelation effect has also been considered for this study. The paper has been organized as follows: After the introduction the second section gives a brief overview of wind analysis. The third section addresses the case study and evaluates correlation between sites, auto correlation of sites and standard deviation of power output. In section four we describe the results.Keywords: auto correlation, correlation between sites, splitting wind farms, power output, standard deviation
Procedia PDF Downloads 583358 Development of a Cost Effective Two Wheel Tractor Mounted Mobile Maize Sheller for Small Farmers in Bangladesh
Authors: M. Israil Hossain, T. P. Tiwari, Ashrafuzzaman Gulandaz, Nusrat Jahan
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Two-wheel tractor (power tiller) is a common tillage tool in Bangladesh agriculture for easy access in fragmented land with affordable price of small farmers. Traditional maize sheller needs to be carried from place to place by hooking with two-wheel tractor (2WT) and set up again for shelling operation which takes longer time for preparation of maize shelling. The mobile maize sheller eliminates the transportation problem and can start shelling operation instantly any place as it is attached together with 2WT. It is counterclockwise rotating cylinder, axial flow type sheller, and grain separated with a frictional force between spike tooth and concave. The maize sheller is attached with nuts and bolts in front of the engine base of 2WT. The operating power of the sheller comes from the fly wheel of the engine of the tractor through ‘V” belt pulley arrangement. The average shelling capacity of the mobile sheller is 2.0 t/hr, broken kernel 2.2%, and shelling efficiency 97%. The average maize shelling cost is Tk. 0.22/kg and traditional custom hire rate is Tk.1.0/kg, respectively (1 US$=Tk.78.0). The service provider of the 2WT can transport the mobile maize sheller long distance in operator’s seating position. The manufacturers started the fabrication of mobile maize sheller. This mobile maize sheller is also compatible for the other countries where 2WT is available for farming operation.Keywords: cost effective, mobile maize sheller, maize shelling capacity, small farmers, two wheel tractor
Procedia PDF Downloads 179357 Valuation of Cultural Heritage: A Hedonic Pricing Analysis of Housing via GIS-based Data
Authors: Dai-Ling Li, Jung-Fa Cheng, Min-Lang Huang, Yun-Yao Chi
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The hedonic pricing model has been popularly applied to describe the economic value of environmental amenities in urban housing, but the results for cultural heritage variables remain relatively ambiguous. In this paper, integrated variables extending by GIS-based data and an existing typology of communities used to examine how cultural heritage and environmental amenities and disamenities affect housing prices across urban communities in Tainan, Taiwan. The developed models suggest that, although a sophisticated variable for central services is selected, the centrality of location is not fully controlled in the price models and thus picked up by correlated peripheral and central amenities such as cultural heritage, open space or parks. Analysis of these correlations permits us to qualify results and present a revised set of relatively reliable estimates. Positive effects on housing prices are identified for views, various types of recreational infrastructure and vicinity of nationally cultural sites and significant landscapes. Negative effects are found for several disamenities including wasteyards, refuse incinerators, petrol stations and industries. The results suggest that systematic hypothesis testing and reporting of correlations may contribute to consistent explanatory patterns in hedonic pricing estimates for cultural heritage and landscape amenities in urban.Keywords: hedonic pricing model, cultural heritage, landscape amenities, housing
Procedia PDF Downloads 334356 Hybrid Model of an Increasing Unique Consumer Value on Purchases that Influences the Consumer Loyalty and the Pursuit of a Sustainable Competitive Advantage from the Institutions in Jakarta
Authors: Wilhelmus Hary Susilo
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The marketplace would have at least some resources that are unique (e.g., well communication, knowledgeable employees, consumer value, effective transaction, efficient production processes and institutional branding). The institutions should have an advantage in resources and then could lead to positions of competitive advantage. These major challenges focus on increasing unique consumer value on reliable purchases that influence of loyalty and pursuit of a sustainable competitive advantage from the Institutions in Jakarta. Furthermore, a research was conducted with a quantitative method and a confirmatory strategic research design. The research resulted in entire confirmatory factors analysis (1st CFA and 2nd CFA) among variables pertains to; χ2//Df (9.30, 4.38, 6.95, 2.76, 2.97, 2.91, 2.32 and 6.90), GFI (0.72, 0.82, 0.82, 0.81, 0.78, 0.84, 0.89 and 0.70) and CFI (0.90, 0.95, 0.93, 0.92, 0.95, 0.91, 0.96 and 0.89), which indicates a good model. Furthermore, the hybrid model is well fit with, χ2//Df=1.84, P value = 0.00, RMSEA = 0.076, GFI = 0.76, NNFI= 0.95, PNFI= 0.82, IFI= 0.96, RFI= 0.91, AGFI= 0.71 and CFI= 0.96. The result was significant hypothesis, i.e. variables of communitization marketing 3.0 and price perception influenced to unique value of consumer with tvalue =4.46 and 5.89. Furthermore, the consumers value influenced the purchasing with t value = 5.94. Additionally, the loyalty, the ‘communitization’, and the character building marketing 3.0 are affecting the pursuit of a sustainable competitive advantage from institutions with t value = 7.57, -2.12, and 2.04. Finally, the test between the most superior variable dimensions is significantly correlated between INOV and WDES, RESPON and ATT covariance matrix value= 0.72 and 0.71. Thus, ‘communitization’ and character building marketing 3.0 with dimensions of responsibility and technologies would increase a competitive advantage with the dimensions of the innovation and the job design from the institutions.Keywords: consumer loyalty, marketing 3.0, unique consumer value, purchase, sustainable competitive advantage
Procedia PDF Downloads 282355 A Goal-Oriented Approach for Supporting Input/Output Factor Determination in the Regulation of Brazilian Electricity Transmission
Authors: Bruno de Almeida Vilela, Heinz Ahn, Ana Lúcia Miranda Lopes, Marcelo Azevedo Costa
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Benchmarking public utilities such as transmission system operators (TSOs) is one of the main strategies employed by regulators in order to fix monopolistic companies’ revenues. Since 2007 the Brazilian regulator has been utilizing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to benchmark TSOs. Despite the application of DEA to improve the transmission sector’s efficiency, some problems can be pointed out, such as the high price of electricity in Brazil; the limitation of the benchmarking only to operational expenses (OPEX); the absence of variables that represent the outcomes of the transmission service; and the presence of extremely low and high efficiencies. As an alternative to the current concept of benchmarking the Brazilian regulator uses, we propose a goal-oriented approach. Our proposal supports input/output selection by taking traditional organizational goals and measures as a basis for the selection of factors for benchmarking purposes. As the main advantage, it resolves the classical DEA problems of input/output selection, undesirable and dual-role factors. We also provide a demonstration of our goal-oriented concept regarding service quality. As a result, most TSOs’ efficiencies in Brazil might improve when considering quality as important in their efficiency estimation.Keywords: decision making, goal-oriented benchmarking, input/output factor determination, TSO regulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 192354 The Probability of Smallholder Broiler Chicken Farmers' Participation in the Mainstream Market within Maseru District in Lesotho
Authors: L. E. Mphahama, A. Mushunje, A. Taruvinga
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Although broiler production does not generate any large incomes among the smallholder community, it represents the main source of livelihood and part of nutritional requirement. As a result, market for broiler meat is growing faster than that of any other meat products and is projected to continue growing in the coming decades. However, the implication is that a multitude of factors manipulates transformation of smallholder broiler farmers participating in the mainstream markets. From 217 smallholder broiler farmers, socio-economic and institutional factors in broiler farming were incorporated into Binary model to estimate the probability of broiler farmers’ participation in the mainstream markets within the Maseru district in Lesotho. Of the thirteen (13) predictor variables fitted into the model, six (6) variables (household size, number of years in broiler business, stock size, access to transport, access to extension services and access to market information) had significant coefficients while seven (7) variables (level of education, marital status, price of broilers, poultry association, access to contract, access to credit and access to storage) did not have a significant impact. It is recommended that smallholder broiler farmers organize themselves into cooperatives which will act as a vehicle through which they can access contracts and formal markets. These cooperatives will also enable easy training and workshops for broiler rearing and marketing/markets through extension visits.Keywords: broiler chicken, mainstream market, Maseru district, participation, smallholder farmers
Procedia PDF Downloads 137353 Grey Wolf Optimization Technique for Predictive Analysis of Products in E-Commerce: An Adaptive Approach
Authors: Shital Suresh Borse, Vijayalaxmi Kadroli
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E-commerce industries nowadays implement the latest AI, ML Techniques to improve their own performance and prediction accuracy. This helps to gain a huge profit from the online market. Ant Colony Optimization, Genetic algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network & GWO help many e-commerce industries for up-gradation of their predictive performance. These algorithms are providing optimum results in various applications, such as stock price prediction, prediction of drug-target interaction & user ratings of similar products in e-commerce sites, etc. In this study, customer reviews will play an important role in prediction analysis. People showing much interest in buying a lot of services& products suggested by other customers. This ultimately increases net profit. In this work, a convolution neural network (CNN) is proposed which further is useful to optimize the prediction accuracy of an e-commerce website. This method shows that CNN is used to optimize hyperparameters of GWO algorithm using an appropriate coding scheme. Accurate model results are verified by comparing them to PSO results whose hyperparameters have been optimized by CNN in Amazon's customer review dataset. Here, experimental outcome proves that this proposed system using the GWO algorithm achieves superior execution in terms of accuracy, precision, recovery, etc. in prediction analysis compared to the existing systems.Keywords: prediction analysis, e-commerce, machine learning, grey wolf optimization, particle swarm optimization, CNN
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