Foresight in Food Supply System in Bogota

Authors: Suarez-Puello Alejandro, Baquero-Ruiz Andrés F, Suarez-Puello Rodrigo

Abstract:

This paper discusses the results of a foresight exercise which analyzes Bogota’s fruit, vegetable and tuber supply chain strategy- described at the Food Supply and Security Master Plan (FSSMP)-to provide the inhabitants of Bogotá, Colombia, with basic food products at a fair price. The methodology consisted of using quantitative and qualitative foresight tools such as system dynamics and variable selection methods to better represent interactions among stakeholders and obtain more integral results that could shed light on this complex situation. At first, the Master Plan is an input to establish the objectives and scope of the exercise. Then, stakeholders and their relationships are identified. Later, system dynamics is used to model product, information and money flow along the fruit, vegetable and tuber supply chain. Two scenarios are presented, discussing actions by the public sector and the reactions that could be expected from the whole food supply system. Finally, these impacts are compared to the Food Supply and Security Master Plan’s objectives suggesting recommendations that could improve its execution. This foresight exercise performed at a governmental level is intended to promote the widen the use of foresight as an anticipatory, decision-making tool that offers solutions to complex problems.

Keywords: decision making, foresight, public policies, supply chain, system dynamics