Search results for: ecological niche modelling

Authors: Sony Baral, Harald Vacik

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This study analyzes the sustainability of community forest management in two community forests in Terai and Hills of Nepal, representing four forest types: 1) Shorearobusta, 2) Terai hardwood, 3) Schima-Castanopsis, and 4) other Hills. The sustainability goals for this region include maintaining and enhancing the forest stocks. Considering this, we analysed changes in species composition, stand density, growing stock volume, and growth-to-removal ratio at 3-5 year intervals from 2005-2016 within 109 permanent forest plots (57 in the Terai and 52 in the Hills). To complement inventory data, forest users, forest committee members, and forest officials were consulted. The results indicate that the relative representation of economically valuable tree species has increased. Based on trends in stand density, both forests are being sustainably managed. Pole-sized trees dominated the diameter distribution, however, with a limited number of mature trees and declined regeneration. The forests were over-harvested until 2013 but under-harvested in the recent period in the Hills. In contrast, both forest types were under-harvested throughout the inventory period in the Terai. We found that the ecological dimension of sustainable forest management is strongly achieved while the economic dimension is lacking behind the current potential. Thus, we conclude that maintaining a large number of trees in the forest does not necessarily ensure both ecological and economical sustainability. Instead, priority should be given on a rational estimation of the annual harvest rates to enhance forest resource conditions together with regular benefits to the local communities.

Keywords: community forests, diversity, growing stock, forest management, sustainability, nepal

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Authors: Mohammad Ehson Rangiha, Bill Karakostas

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Social Business Process Management (SBPM) promises to overcome limitations of traditional BPM by allowing flexible process design and enactment through the involvement of users from a social community. This paper proposes a meta-model and architecture for socially driven business process management systems. It discusses the main facets of the architecture such as goal-based role assignment that combines social recommendations with user profile, and process recommendation, through a real example of a charity organization.

Keywords: business process management, goal-based modelling, process recommendation social collaboration, social BPM

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Authors: Hammad Majeed, Hanna Knuutila, Magne Hillestad, Hallvard F. Svendsen

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Formation of aerosols can cause serious complications in industrial exhaust gas CO2 capture processes. SO3 present in the flue gas can cause aerosol formation in an absorption based capture process. Small mist droplets and fog formed can normally not be removed in conventional demisting equipment because their submicron size allows the particles or droplets to follow the gas flow. As a consequence of this aerosol based emissions in the order of grams per Nm3 have been identified from PCCC plants. In absorption processes aerosols are generated by spontaneous condensation or desublimation processes in supersaturated gas phases. Undesired aerosol development may lead to amine emissions many times larger than what would be encountered in a mist free gas phase in PCCC development. It is thus of crucial importance to understand the formation and build-up of these aerosols in order to mitigate the problem. Rigorous modelling of aerosol dynamics leads to a system of partial differential equations. In order to understand mechanics of a particle entering an absorber an implementation of the model is created in Matlab. The model predicts the droplet size, the droplet internal variable profiles and the mass transfer fluxes as function of position in the absorber. The Matlab model is based on a subclass method of weighted residuals for boundary value problems named, orthogonal collocation method. The model comprises a set of mass transfer equations for transferring components and the essential diffusion reaction equations to describe the droplet internal profiles for all relevant constituents. Also included is heat transfer across the interface and inside the droplet. This paper presents results describing the basic simulation tool for the characterization of aerosols formed in CO2 absorption columns and gives examples as to how various entering droplets grow or shrink through an absorber and how their composition changes with respect to time. Below are given some preliminary simulation results for an aerosol droplet composition and temperature profiles.

Keywords: absorption columns, aerosol formation, amine emissions, internal droplet profiles, monoethanolamine (MEA), post combustion CO2 capture, simulation

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Authors: Faiz Khan Mohammad, Saumya Ray Chaudhari, Raghunathan Rengaswamy, Swagatika Sahoo

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Cholera caused by pathogenic gut bacteria Vibrio Cholerae (VC), is a major health problem in developing countries. Different strains of VC exhibit variable responses subject to different extracellular medium (Nag et al, Infect Immun, 2018). In this study, we present a new approach to model the variable VC responses in mono- and co-cultures, subject to continuously changing growth medium, which is otherwise difficult via simple FBA model. Nine VC strain and seven E. coli (EC) models were assembled and considered. A continuously changing medium is modelled using a new iterative-based controlled medium technique (ITC). The medium is appropriately prefixed with the VC model secretome. As the flux through the bacteria biomass increases secretes certain by-products. These products shall add-on to the medium, either deviating the nutrient potential or block certain metabolic components of the model, effectively forming a controlled feed-back loop. Different VC models were setup as monoculture of VC in glucose enriched medium, and in co-culture with VC strains and EC. Constrained to glucose enriched medium, (i) VC_Classical model resulted in higher flux through acidic secretome suggesting a pH change of the medium, leading to lowering of its biomass. This is in consonance with the literature reports. (ii) When compared for neutral secretome, flux through acetoin exchange was higher in VC_El tor than the classical models, suggesting El tor requires an acidic partner to lower its biomass. (iii) Seven of nine VC models predicted 3-methyl-2-Oxovaleric acid, mysirtic acid, folic acid, and acetate significantly affect corresponding biomass reactions. (iv) V. parhemolyticus and vulnificus were found to be phenotypically similar to VC Classical strain, across the nine VC strains. The work addresses the advantage of the ITC over regular flux balance analysis for modelling varying growth medium. Future expansion to co-cultures, potentiates the identification of novel interacting partners as effective cholera therapeutics.

Keywords: cholera, vibrio cholera El. tor, vibrio cholera classical, acetate

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Authors: Olusola Omolola Olafuyi, Michael Coleman, Raj Kumar Singh Badhan

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Introduction: Malaria in pregnancy has morbidity and mortality implication on both mother and unborn child. Piperaquine (PQ) based antimalarial treatment is emerging as a choice antimalarial for pregnant women in the face of resistance to current antimalarial treatment recommendation in pregnancy. Physiological and biochemical changes in pregnant women may affect the pharmacokinetics of the antimalarial drug in these. In malaria endemic regions other infectious diseases like HIV/AIDs are prevalent. Pregnant women who are co-infected with malaria and HIV/AID are at even more greater risk of death not only due to complications of the diseases but also due to drug-drug interactions (DDIs) between antimalarials (AMT) and antiretroviral (ARVs). In this study, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling was used to investigate the effect of physiological and biochemical changes on the impact of ARV mediated DDIs in pregnant women in three countries. Method: A PBPK model for PQ was developed on SimCYP® using published physicochemical and pharmacokinetic data of PQ from literature, this was validated in three customized population groups from Thailand, Sudan and Papua New Guinea with clinical data. Validation of PQ model was also done in presence of interaction with efavirenz (pre-validated on SimCYP®). Different albumin levels and pregnancy stages was simulated in the presence of interaction with standard doses of efavirenz and ritonavir. PQ day 7 concentration of 30ng/ml was used as the efficacy endpoint for PQ treatment.. Results: The median day 7 concentration of PQ remained virtually consistent throughout pregnancy and were satisfactory across the three population groups ranging from 26-34.1ng/ml; this implied the efficacy of PQ throughout pregnancy. DDI interaction with ritonavir and efavirenz resulted in modest effect on the day 7 concentrations of PQ with AUCratio ranging from 0.56-0.8 and 1.64-1.79 for efavirenz and ritonavir respectively over 10-40 gestational weeks, however, a reduction in human serum albumin level reflective of severe malaria resulted in significantly reduced the number of subjects attaining the PQ day 7 concentration in the presence of both DDIs. The model demonstrated that the DDI between PQ and ARV in pregnant women with different malaria severities can alter the pharmacokinetic of PQ.

Keywords: antiretroviral, malaria, piperaquine, pregnancy, physiologically-based pharmacokinetics

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Authors: Pangkaj Kumar Mahanta, Md. Rafizul Islam

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The rapid growth of the population causes a substantial amount of increase in household waste all over the world. Waste management is becoming one of the most challenging phenomena in the present day. The most environmentally friendly final disposal process of waste is sanitary landfilling, which is practiced in most developing countries. However, in Southeast Asia, most of the final disposal point is an open dump site. Due to the ignominy of proper management of waste and monitoring, the surrounding environment gets polluted more by the open dump site in comparison with a sanitary landfill. Khulna is 3rd largest metropolitan city in Bangladesh, having a population of around 1.5 million and producing approximately 450 tons per day of Municipal Solid Waste. The Municipal solid waste of Khulna city is disposed of in Rajbandh open dump site. The surrounding air is being polluted by the gas produced in the open dump site. Also, the open dump site produces leachate, which contains various heavy metals like Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Lead (Pb), Manganese (Mn), Mercury (Hg), Strontium (Sr), etc. Leachate pollutes the soil as well as the groundwater of the open dump site and also the surrounding area through seepage. Moreover, during the rainy season, the surface water is polluted by leachate runoff. Also, the plastic waste flowing out from the open dump site through various drivers pollutes the nearby environment. The health risk assessment associated with heavy metals was carried out by computing the chronic daily intake (CDI), hazard quotient (HQ), and hazard index (HI) via different exposure pathways following the USEPA guidelines. For ecological risk, potential contamination index (Cp), Contamination factor (CF), contamination load index (PLI), numerical integrated contamination factor (NICF), enrichment factor (EF), ecological risk index (ER), and potential ecological risk index (PERI) were computed. The health risk and ecological risk assessment results reveal that some heavy metals possess strong health and ecological risk. In addition, the child faces higher harmful health risks from several heavy metals than the adult for all the exposure pathways and media. The conversion of an open dump site into a sanitary landfill and a proper management system can reduce the problems associated with an open dump site. In the sanitary landfill, the produced gas will be managed properly to save the surrounding atmosphere from being polluted. The seepage of leachate can be minimized by installing a compacted clay layer (CCL) as a baseline and leachate collection in a sanitary landfill to save the underlying soil layer and surrounding water bodies from leachate. Another important component of a sanitary landfill is the conversion of plastic waste to energy will minimize the plastic pollution in the landfill area and also the surrounding soil and water bodies. Also, in the sanitary landfill, the bio-waste can be used to make compost to reduce the volume of bio-waste and proper utilization of the landfill area.

Keywords: ecological risk, health risk, open dump site, sanitary landfill

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Authors: Abdus-Samiᶜi Imam Arikewuyo

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Islam enjoins the spirit of cooperation among fellow mankind. This is particularly entrenched in the brotherhood phenomenon advocated by Islam. With cooperation, a group of people with diverse qualities and opportunities can facilitate a breakthrough in what is seemingly difficult, if not impossible. This understanding underscores the initiative of establishing multi-purpose cooperative societies for thrifts and savings among bonafide members, especially in developing nations. The spirit and objectives of the Multi-Purpose Cooperatives Societies gave birth to the founding of several of these organizations as a plausible economic outfit in Nigeria to provide succor to the socio-economic predicaments of members. Pertinently, many Islamic cooperative societies sprang up, carving a niche for themselves as Shariᶜah-based economic outfits to accommodate the yearnings of the Muslim populace. KWASU Al-Halal Cooperative Society, Malete, Nigeria, is one such organization that is not only Shariᶜah inclined but also institutional-based. This paper, therefore, aims to examine the operations and activities of this society with a view to determining its strength as a Shariᶜah-based economic outfit for the survival of its clients in a competitive multi-religious atmosphere. The study is both historical and descriptive; thus, it employed interview, observation, focus group discussion and hermeneutical methods as pertinent research tools. The research findings indicated that adopting the Shariᶜah prescriptions, KWASU Al-Halal Cooperative Society, as a representation of the Islamic cooperatives society, fulfilled the essence and goal of its establishment, serving as an outlet for meeting the socio-economic demands of its members regardless of religious inclinations. The paper recommended that stronger efforts should be made on proper record keeping, the conscientiousness of beneficiaries on loan refunds or payments on purchases and education of the loanees and guarantors.

Keywords: efficacy, Islamic cooperatives society, Kwasu al-halal cooperative society, shariᶜah

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Authors: Gina M. Newton

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Australia’s Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC Act) is the premiere, national law under which species and 'ecological communities' (i.e., like ecosystems) can be formally recognised and 'listed' as threatened across all jurisdictions. The listing process involves assessment against a range of criteria (similar to the IUCN process) to demonstrate conservation status (i.e., vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered, etc.) based on the best available science. Over the past decade in Australia, there’s been a transition from almost solely terrestrial to the first aquatic threatened ecological community (TEC or ecosystem) listings (e.g., River Murray, Macquarie Marshes, Coastal Saltmarsh, Salt-wedge Estuaries). All constitute large areas, with some including multiple state jurisdictions. Development of these conservation and listing advices has enabled, for the first time, a more forensic analysis of three key factors across a range of aquatic and coastal ecosystems: -the contribution of invasive species to conservation status, -how to demonstrate and attribute decline in 'ecological integrity' to conservation status, and, -identification of related priority conservation actions for management. There is increasing global recognition of the disproportionate degree of biodiversity loss within aquatic ecosystems. In Australia, legislative protection at Commonwealth or State levels remains one of the strongest conservation measures. Such laws have associated compliance mechanisms for breaches to the protected status. They also trigger the need for environment impact statements during applications for major developments (which may be denied). However, not all jurisdictions have such laws in place. There remains much opposition to the listing of freshwater systems – for example, the River Murray (Australia's largest river) and Macquarie Marshes (an internationally significant wetland) were both disallowed by parliament four months after formal listing. This was mainly due to a change of government, dissent from a major industry sector, and a 'loophole' in the law. In Australia, at least in the immediate to medium-term time frames, invasive species (aliens, native pests, pathogens, etc.) appear to be the number one biotic threat to the biodiversity and ecological function and integrity of our aquatic ecosystems. Consequently, this should be considered a current priority for research, conservation, and management actions. Another key outcome from this analysis was the recognition that drawing together multiple lines of evidence to form a 'conservation narrative' is a more useful approach to assigning conservation status. This also helps to addresses a glaring gap in long-term ecological data sets in Australia, which often precludes a more empirical data-driven approach. An important lesson also emerged – the recognition that while conservation must be underpinned by the best available scientific evidence, it remains a 'social and policy' goal rather than a 'scientific' goal. Communication, engagement, and 'politics' necessarily play a significant role in achieving conservation goals and need to be managed and resourced accordingly.

Keywords: aquatic ecosystem conservation, conservation law, ecological integrity, invasive species

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Authors: K. S. Chai, S. H. Chan

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In this paper, the earth retaining wall anchored by discrete deadman anchor to support excavations in sand is modelled and analysed by finite element analysis. A study is conducted to examine how deadman anchorage system helps in reducing the deflection of earth retaining wall. A simplified numerical model is suggested in order to reduce the simulation duration. A comparison between 3-D and 2-D finite element analyses is illustrated.

Keywords: finite element, earth retaining wall, deadman anchor, sand

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Authors: Jožef Ritonja

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The biochemical industry is one of the most important modern industries. Biochemical reactors are crucial devices of the biochemical industry. The essential bioprocess carried out in bioreactors is the fermentation process. A thorough insight into the fermentation process and the knowledge how to control it are essential for effective use of bioreactors to produce high quality and quantitatively enough products. The development of the control system starts with the determination of a mathematical model that describes the steady state and dynamic properties of the controlled plant satisfactorily, and is suitable for the development of the control system. The paper analyses the fermentation process in bioreactors thoroughly, using existing mathematical models. Most existing mathematical models do not allow the design of a control system for controlling the fermentation process in batch bioreactors. Due to this, a mathematical model was developed and presented that allows the development of a control system for batch bioreactors. Based on the developed mathematical model, a control system was designed to ensure optimal response of the biochemical quantities in the fermentation process. Due to the time-varying and non-linear nature of the controlled plant, the conventional control system with a proportional-integral-differential controller with constant parameters does not provide the desired transient response. The improved adaptive control system was proposed to improve the dynamics of the fermentation. The use of the adaptive control is suggested because the parameters’ variations of the fermentation process are very slow. The developed control system was tested to produce dairy products in the laboratory bioreactor. A carbon dioxide concentration was chosen as the controlled variable. The carbon dioxide concentration correlates well with the other, for the quality of the fermentation process in significant quantities. The level of the carbon dioxide concentration gives important information about the fermentation process. The obtained results showed that the designed control system provides minimum error between reference and actual values of carbon dioxide concentration during a transient response and in a steady state. The recommended control system makes reference signal tracking much more efficient than the currently used conventional control systems which are based on linear control theory. The proposed control system represents a very effective solution for the improvement of the milk fermentation process.

Keywords: biochemical reactor, fermentation process, modelling, adaptive control

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Authors: Chandra Upadhyaya, Arup Kumar Sarma

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In the North Eastern part of India several hydro power projects are being proposed and execution for some of them are already initiated. There are controversies surrounding these constructions. Impact of these dams in the downstream part of the rivers needs to be assessed so that eco-system and people living downstream are protected by redesigning the projects if it becomes necessary. This may result in reducing the stresses to the affected ecosystem and people living downstream. At present many index based ecological methods are present to assess impact on ecology. However, none of these methods are capable of assessing the affect resulting from dam induced diurnal variation of flow in the downstream. We need environmental flow methodology based on hydrological index which can address the affect resulting from dam induced diurnal variation of flow and play an important role in a riverine ecosystem management and be able to provide a qualitative idea about changes in the habitat for aquatic and riparian species.

Keywords: ecosystem, environmental flow assessment, entropy, IHA, TNC

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Authors: Hsiu-Hua Cheng, Chi-Wei Chen

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Lurking behaviour is common in information-seeking oriented communities. Transferring users with lurking behaviour to be contributors can assist virtual communities to obtain competitive advantages. Based on the ecological cognition framework, this study proposes a model to examine the antecedents of lurking behaviour in information-seeking oriented virtual communities. This study argues desire for emotional support, desire for information support, desire for performance-approach, desire for performance -avoidance, desire for mastery-approach, desire for mastery-avoidance, desire for ability trust, desire for benevolence trust, and desire for integrity trust effect on lurking behaviour. This study offers an approach to understanding the determinants of lurking behaviour in online contexts.

Keywords: lurking behaviour, the ecological cognition framework, Information-seeking oriented virtual communities, desire

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Authors: B. V. Feujofack Kemda, N. Barka, M. Jahazi, D. Osmani

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Automobile manufacturers are constantly seeking means to reduce the weight of car bodies. The usage of several steel grades in auto body assembling has been found to be a good technique to enlighten vehicles weight. This few years, the usage of dual phase (DP) steels, transformation induced plasticity (TRIP) steels and boron steels in some parts of the auto body have become a necessity because of their lightweight. However, these steels are martensitic, when they undergo a fast heat treatment, the resultant microstructure is essential, made of martensite. Resistance spot welding (RSW), one of the most used techniques in assembling auto bodies, becomes problematic in the case of these steels. RSW being indeed a process were steel is heated and cooled in a very short period of time, the resulting weld nugget is mostly fully martensitic, especially in the case of DP, TRIP and boron steels but that also holds for plain carbon steels as AISI 1010 grade which is extensively used in auto body inner parts. Martensite in its turn must be avoided as most as possible when welding steel because it is the principal source of brittleness and it weakens weld nugget. Thus, this work aims to find a mean to reduce martensite fraction in weld nugget when using RSW for assembling. The prediction of phase transformation kinetics during RSW has been done. That phase transformation kinetics prediction has been made possible through the modelling of the whole welding process, and a technique called post weld heat treatment (PWHT) have been applied in order to reduce martensite fraction in the weld nugget. Simulation has been performed for AISI 1010 grade, and results show that the application of PWHT leads to the formation of not only martensite but also ferrite, bainite and pearlite during the cooling of weld nugget. Welding experiments have been done in parallel and micrographic analyses show the presence of several phases in the weld nugget. Experimental weld geometry and phase proportions are in good agreement with simulation results, showing here the validity of the model.

Keywords: resistance spot welding, AISI 1010, modeling, post weld heat treatment, phase transformation, kinetics

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Authors: Ramazan Kadiev, Arkadi Ponossov

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Semidiscrete systems contain both continuous and discrete components. This means that the dynamics is mostly continuous, but at certain instants, it is exposed to abrupt influences. Such systems naturally appear in applications, for example, in biological and ecological models as well as in the control theory. Therefore, the study of semidiscrete systems has recently attracted the attention of many specialists. Stochastic effects are an important part of any realistic approach to modeling. For example, stochasticity arises in the population dynamics, demographic and ecological due to a change in time of factors external to the system affecting the survival of the population. In control theory, random coefficients can simulate inaccuracies in measurements. It will be shown in the presentation how to incorporate such effects into semidiscrete systems. Stability analysis is an essential part of modeling real-world problems. In the presentation, it will be explained how sufficient conditions for the moment stability of solutions in terms of the coefficients for linear semidiscrete stochastic equations can be derived using non-Lyapunov technique.

Keywords: abrupt changes, exponential stability, regularization, stochastic noises

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Authors: Clive L. Morley

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Gravity models and panel data modelling of tourism flows are receiving renewed attention, after decades of general neglect. Such models have quite different underpinnings from conventional demand models derived from micro-economic theory. They operate at a different level of data and with different theoretical bases. These differences have important consequences for the interpretation of the results and their policy and managerial implications. This review compares and contrasts the two model forms, clarifying the distinguishing features and the estimation requirements of each. In general, gravity models are not recommended for use to address specific management and marketing purposes.

Keywords: gravity models, micro-economics, demand models, marketing

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Authors: Abdi Omar Shuriye

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A social business is a business designed to address socio-economic problems to enhance the welfare of the communities involved. Lately, social business, with its focus on innovative ideas, is capturing the interest of educational institutions, governments, and non-governmental organizations. Social business uses a business model to achieve a social goal, and in the last few decades, the idea of imbuing social business into the education system of higher learning institutions has spurred much excitement. This is due to the belief that it will lead to job creation and increased social resilience. One of the higher learning institutions which have invested immensely in the idea is Albukhari International University; it is a private education institution, on a state-of-the-art campus, providing an advantageous learning ecosystem. The niche area of this institution is social business, and it graduates job creators, not job seekers; this Malaysian institution is unique and one of its kind. The objective of this paper is to develop a work plan, direction, and milestone as well as the focus area for the infusion of social business into higher learning institutions with special reference to Al-Bukhari International University. The purpose is to develop a prototype and model full-scale to enable higher learning education institutions to construct the desired curriculum fermented with social business. With this model, major predicaments faced by these institutions could be overcome. The paper sets forth an educational plan and will spell out the basic tenets of social business, focusing on the nature and implementational aspects of the curriculum. It will also evaluate the mechanisms applied by these educational institutions. Currently, since research in this area remains scarce, institutions adopt the process of experimenting with various methods to find the best way to reach the desired result on the matter. The author is of the opinion that social business in education is the main tool to educate holistic future leaders; hence educational institutions should inspire students in the classroom to start up their own businesses by adopting creative and proactive teaching methods. This proposed model is a contribution in that direction.

Keywords: social business, curriculum, skills, university

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Authors: Bello Abdullahi, Yahaya M. Ibrahim, Ahmed D. Ibrahim, Kabir Bala

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Public sector tendering has traditionally been conducted using manual paper-based processes which are known to be inefficient, less transparent and more prone to manipulations and errors. The advent of the Internet and the World Wide Web has led to the development of numerous e-Tendering systems that addressed some of the problems associated with the manual paper-based tendering system. However, most of these systems rarely support the evaluation of tenders and where they do it is mostly based on the single decision maker which is not suitable in public sector tendering, where for the sake of objectivity, transparency, and fairness, it is required that the evaluation is conducted through a tender evaluation committee. Currently, in Nigeria, the public tendering process in general and the evaluation of tenders, in particular, are largely conducted using manual paper-based processes. Automating these manual-based processes to digital-based processes can help in enhancing the proficiency of public sector tendering in Nigeria. This paper is part of a larger study to develop an electronic tendering system that supports the whole tendering lifecycle based on Nigerian procurement law. Specifically, this paper presents the design and implementation of part of the system that supports group evaluation of tenders based on a technique called fuzzy multi-attributes group decision making. The system was developed using Object-Oriented methodologies and Unified Modelling Language and hypothetically applied in the evaluation of technical and financial proposals submitted by bidders. The system was validated by professionals with extensive experiences in public sector procurement. The results of the validation showed that the system called NPS-eTender has an average rating of 74% with respect to correct and accurate modelling of the existing manual tendering domain and an average rating of 67.6% with respect to its potential to enhance the proficiency of public sector tendering in Nigeria. Thus, based on the results of the validation, the automation of the evaluation process to support tender evaluation committee is achievable and can lead to a more proficient public sector tendering system.

Keywords: e-Tendering, e-Procurement, group decision making, tender evaluation, tender evaluation committee, UML, object-oriented methodologies, system development

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Authors: Emilienne Lardy, Eric Ballot, Mariam Lafkihi

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Efficient urban logistics requires a comprehensive understanding of traffic dynamics, particularly as it pertains to kinetic parameters influencing energy consumption and trip duration estimations. While real-time traffic information is increasingly accessible, current high-precision forecasting services embedded in route planning often function as opaque 'black boxes' for users. These services, typically relying on AI-processed counting data, fall short in accommodating open design parameters essential for management studies, notably within Supply Chain Management. This work revisits the modelling of traffic conditions in the context of city logistics, emphasizing its significance from the user’s point of view, with two focuses. Firstly, the focus is not on the vehicle flow but on the vehicles themselves and the impact of the traffic conditions on their driving behaviour. This means opening the range of studied indicators beyond vehicle speed, to describe extensively the kinetic and dynamic aspects of the driving behaviour. To achieve this, we leverage the Art. Kinema parameters are designed to characterize driving cycles. Secondly, this study examines how the driving context (i.e., exogenous factors to the traffic flow) determines the mentioned driving behaviour. Specifically, we explore how accurately the kinetic behaviour of a vehicle can be predicted based on a limited set of exogenous factors, such as time, day, road type, orientation, slope, and weather conditions. To answer this question, statistical analysis was conducted on real-world driving data, which includes high-frequency measurements of vehicle speed. A Factor Analysis and a Generalized Linear Model have been established to link kinetic parameters with independent categorical contextual variables. The results include an assessment of the adjustment quality and the robustness of the models, as well as an overview of the model’s outputs.

Keywords: factor analysis, generalised linear model, real world driving data, traffic congestion, urban logistics, vehicle kinematics

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Authors: Dina Salem

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A variety of definitions and interpretations for sustainable development has been offered since the widely known definition of the World Commission on Environment and Development in 1987, the perspectives have ranged from deep ecology to better life quality for people. Sustainable landscape is widely understood as a key contributor to urban sustainability for the fact that all landscapes has a social, economic, cultural and ecological function for the community’s well-being and urban development, that was evident even before the emergence of sustainability concept. In this paper, the concepts of landscape planning and sustainable development are briefly reviewed; visions for landscape sustainability are demonstrated and classified. Challenges facing sustainable landscape planning are discussed. Finally, the paper investigates how our future urban open space could be sustainable and how does this contribute to urban sustainability, by creating urban landscapes that takes into account the social and cultural values of users of urban open space besides the ecological balance of urban open spaces as an integrated network.

Keywords: urban landscape, urban sustainability, resilience, open spaces

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

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Authors: Gelareh Changizi, Mahsa Khajavi, Ladan Shahhosseini

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Corporate-level strategy, or simply ‘parent strategy’, is a topic that has received much attention since the very early days of the strategic planning field. Since the multi level enterprises have different sub enterprises which deal with different business environments, we cannot define the same strategic perspective for all of them. Therefore, the determination of a perspective to manage and deal with affiliates of such enterprises is the main challenge. The parent strategy in mother enterprises' level has been analyzed in this research. A case study has been carried to comprehensively describe the proposed model.

Keywords: parent strategy, multi-business companies, performance evaluation, lifecycle

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Authors: Georgios Koronis, Arlindo Silva

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This study seeks to understand the mechanical behavior of a natural fiber reinforced composite (epoxy/flax) in more depth, utilizing both experimental and numerical methods. It is attempted to identify relationships between the design parameters and the product performance, understand the effect of noise factors and reduce process variations. Optimization of the mechanical performance of manufactured goods has recently been implemented by numerous studies for green composites. However, these studies are limited and have explored in principal mass production processes. It is expected here to discover knowledge about composite’s manufacturing that can be used to design artifacts that are of low batch and tailored to niche markets. The goal is to reach greater consistency in the performance and further understand which factors play significant roles in obtaining the best mechanical performance. A prediction of response function (in various operating conditions) of the process is modeled by the DoE. Normally, a full factorial designed experiment is required and consists of all possible combinations of levels for all factors. An analytical assessment is possible though with just a fraction of the full factorial experiment. The outline of the research approach will comprise of evaluating the influence that these variables have and how they affect the composite mechanical behavior. The coupons will be fabricated by the vacuum infusion process defined by three process parameters: flow rate, injection point position and fiber treatment. Each process parameter is studied at 2-levels along with their interactions. Moreover, the tensile and flexural properties will be obtained through mechanical testing to discover the key process parameters. In this setting, an experimental phase will be followed in which a number of fabricated coupons will be tested to allow for a validation of the design of the experiment’s setup. Finally, the results are validated by performing the optimum set of in a final set of experiments as indicated by the DoE. It is expected that after a good agreement between the predicted and the verification experimental values, the optimal processing parameter of the biocomposite lamina will be effectively determined.

Keywords: design of experiments, flax fabrics, mechanical performance, natural fiber reinforced composites

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Authors: Guillaume Caulier, Lola Brasseur, Patrick Flammang, Pascal Gerbaux, Igor Eeckhaut

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Saponins and quinones are two major groups of secondary metabolites widely distributed in the biosphere. More specifically, triterpenoid saponins and anthraquinones are mainly found in a wide variety of plants, bacteria and fungi. In the animal kingdom, these natural organic compounds are rare and only found in small quantities in arthropods, marine sponges and echinoderms. In this last group, triterpenoid saponins are specific to holothuroids (sea cucumbers) while anthraquinones are the chemical signature of crinoids (feather stars). Depending on the species, they present different molecular cocktails. Despite presenting different chemical properties, these molecules share numerous similarities. This study compares the biological distribution, the pharmacological effects and the ecological roles of holothuroid saponins and crinoid anthraquinones. Both of them have been defined as allomones repelling predators and parasites (i.e. chemical defense) and have interesting pharmacological properties (e.g. anti-bacterial, anti-fungal, anti-cancer). Our study investigates the chemical ecology of two symbiotic associations models; between the snapping shrimp Synalpheus stimpsonii associated with crinoids and the Harlequin crab Lissocarcinus orbicularis associated with holothuroids. Using behavioral experiments in olfactometers, chemical extractions and mass spectrometry analyses, we discovered that saponins and anthraquinones present a second ecological role: the attraction of obligatory symbionts towards their hosts. They can, therefore, be defined as kairomones. This highlights a new paradigm in marine chemical ecology: Chemical repellents are attractants to obligatory symbionts because they constitute host specific chemical signatures.

Keywords: anthraquinones, kairomones, marine symbiosis, saponins, attractant

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Authors: Rupesh S. Gundewar, Kanchan C. Khare

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Runoff contribution from urban areas is generally from manmade structures and few natural contributors. The manmade structures are buildings; roads and other paved areas whereas natural contributors are groundwater and overland flows etc. Runoff alleviation is done by manmade as well as natural storages. Manmade storages are storage tanks or other storage structures such as soakways or soak pits which are more common in western and European countries. Natural storages are catchment slope, infiltration, catchment length, channel rerouting, drainage density, depression storage etc. A literature survey on the manmade and natural storages/inflow has presented percentage contribution of each individually. Sanders et.al. in their research have reported that a vegetation canopy reduces runoff by 7% to 12%. Nassif et el in their research have reported that catchment slope has an impact of 16% on bare standard soil and 24% on grassed soil on rainfall runoff. Infiltration being a pervious/impervious ratio dependent parameter is catchment specific. But a literature survey has presented a range of 15% to 30% loss of rainfall runoff in various catchment study areas. Catchment length and channel rerouting too play a considerable role in reduction of rainfall runoff. Ground infiltration inflow adds to the runoff where the groundwater table is very shallow and soil saturates even in a lower intensity storm. An approximate percent contribution through this inflow and surface inflow contributes to about 2% of total runoff volume. Considering the various contributing factors in runoff it has been observed during a literature survey that integrated modelling approach needs to be considered. The traditional storm water network models are able to predict to a fair/acceptable degree of accuracy provided no interaction with receiving water (river, sea, canal etc), ground infiltration, treatment works etc. are assumed. When such interactions are significant then it becomes difficult to reproduce the actual flood extent using the traditional discrete modelling approach. As a result the correct flooding situation is very rarely addressed accurately. Since the development of spatially distributed hydrologic model the predictions have become more accurate at the cost of requiring more accurate spatial information.The integrated approach provides a greater understanding of performance of the entire catchment. It enables to identify the source of flow in the system, understand how it is conveyed and also its impact on the receiving body. It also confirms important pain points, hydraulic controls and the source of flooding which could not be easily understood with discrete modelling approach. This also enables the decision makers to identify solutions which can be spread throughout the catchment rather than being concentrated at single point where the problem exists. Thus it can be concluded from the literature survey that the representation of urban details can be a key differentiator to the successful understanding of flooding issue. The intent of this study is to accurately predict the runoff from impermeable areas from urban area in India. A representative area has been selected for which data was available and predictions have been made which are corroborated with the actual measured data.

Keywords: runoff, urbanization, impermeable response, flooding

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Authors: Danutė Jablonskytė-Raščė, Audronė MankevičIenė, Laura Masilionytė

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During the period 2009–2015, in Joniškėlis Experimental Station of the Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, the effect of ecologic fertilizers Ekoplant, bio-activators Biokal 01 and Terra Sorb Foliar and their combinations on the formation of the productivity elements, grain yield and quality of winter wheat, spelt (Triticum spelta L.), and common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was analysed in ecological agro-system. The soil under FAO classification – Endocalcari-Endo-hypogleyic-Cambisol. In a clay loam soil, ecological fertilizer produced from sunflower hull ash and this fertilizer in combination with plant extracts and bio-humus exerted an influence on the grain yield of spelt and common wheat and their mixture (increased the grain yield by 10.0%, compared with the unfertilized crops). Spelt grain yield was by on average 16.9% lower than that of common wheat and by 11.7% lower than that of the mixture, but the role of spelt in organic production systems is important because with no mineral fertilization it produced grains with a higher (by 4%) gluten content and exhibited a greater ability to suppress weeds (by on average 61.9% lower weed weight) compared with the grain yield and weed suppressive ability of common wheat and mixture. Spelt cultivation in a mixture with common wheat significantly improved quality indicators of the mixture (its grain contained by 2.0% higher protein content and by 4.0% higher gluten content than common wheat grain), reduced disease incidence (by 2-8%), and weed infestation level (by 34-81%).

Keywords: common and spelt-wheat, ecological fertilizers, bio-activators, productivity elements, yield, quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: E. Kaygan, A. Gatto

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An investigation of adaptable winglets for morphing aircraft control and performance is described in this paper. The concepts investigated consist of various winglet configurations fundamentally centred on a baseline swept wing. The impetus for the work was to identify and optimize winglets to enhance controllability and the aerodynamic efficiency of a small unmanned aerial vehicle. All computations were performed with Athena Vortex Lattice modelling with varying degrees of twist, swept, and dihedral angle considered. The results from this work indicate that if adaptable winglets were employed on small scale UAV’s improvements in both aircraft control and performance could be achieved.

Keywords: aircraft, rolling, wing, winglet

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Authors: Nacira Mecheri, N. Boussid

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A new chemical mechanism designed to study the process of forming the first aromatic ring (benzene) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) from a flame of acetylene (C2H2) has been developed. The mechanism developed, contains 50 chemical species involved in 268 reversible elementary reactions. The comparison between the results from modelling and experimental measurements allowed us to test the validity of the postulated mechanism in specific experimental conditions. Kinetic analysis of the flame by calculating the maximum rates for each elementary reaction, allowed us to identify key reactions pathways of consumption and formation of main precursors of soot.

Keywords: benzene, PAH, acetylene, modeling, flame, soot

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Authors: Mourad Morsli, Mohamed Tahiri, Azzedine Samdi

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The Cities are the urbanized territories most favorable to the consumption of resources (materials, energy). In Morocco, the economic capital Casablanca is one of them, with its 4M inhabitants and its 60% share in the economic and industrial activity of the kingdom. In the absence of legal status in force, urban development has favored the generation of millions of tons of demolition and construction waste scattered in open spaces causing a significant nuisance to the environment and citizens. Hence the main objective of our work is to valorize concrete waste. The representative wastes are mainly concrete, concrete, and fired clay bricks, ceramic tiles, marble panels, gypsum, and scrap metal. The work carried out includes: geolocation with a combination of artificial intelligence, GIS, and Google Earth, which allowed the estimation of the quantity of these wastes per site; then the sorting, crushing, grinding, and physicochemical characterization of the collected samples allowed the definition of the exploitation ways for each extracted fraction for integrated management of the said wastes. In the present work, we proceeded to the exploitation of the fractions obtained after sieving the representative samples to incorporate them in the manufacture of new ecological materials for construction. These formulations prepared studies have been tested and characterized: physical criteria (specific surface, resistance to flexion and compression) and appearance (cracks, deformation). We will present in detail the main results of our research work and also describe the specific properties of each material developed.

Keywords: demolition and construction waste, GIS combination software, inert waste recovery, ecological materials, Casablanca, Morocco

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Authors: Rajesh Karki, Safal Bhattarai, Saket Adhikari

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Reliable and economic operation of power systems are becoming extremely challenging with large scale integration of renewable energy sources due to the intermittency and uncertainty associated with renewable power generation. It is, therefore, important to make a quantitative risk assessment and explore the potential resources to mitigate such risks. Probabilistic models for different energy storage systems (ESS), such as the flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and the compressed air energy storage (CAES) incorporating specific charge/discharge performance and failure characteristics suitable for probabilistic risk assessment in power system operation and planning are presented in this paper. The proposed methodology used in FESS modelling offers flexibility to accommodate different configurations of plant topology. It is perceived that CAES has a high potential for grid-scale application, and a hybrid approach is proposed, which embeds a Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method in an analytical technique to develop a suitable reliability model of the CAES. The proposed ESS models are applied to a test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the energy storage technologies in system operation and planning, as well as to assess their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios. A comparative study considering various storage system topologies are also presented. The impacts of failure rates of the critical components of ESS on the expected state of charge (SOC) and the performance of the different types of ESS during operation are illustrated with selected studies on the test system. The paper also applies the proposed models on the test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the different ESS technologies and to evaluate their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios and system configurations. The conclusions drawn from the study results provide valuable information to help policymakers, system planners, and operators in arriving at effective and efficient policies, investment decisions, and operating strategies for planning and operation of power systems with large penetrations of renewable energy sources.

Keywords: flywheel energy storage, compressed air energy storage, power system reliability, renewable energy, system planning, system operation

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Ivan Baravy

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Interpolation problem, as it was initially posed in terms of polynomials, is well researched. However, further mathematical developments extended it significantly. Trigonometric interpolation is widely used in Fourier analysis, while its generalized representation as exponential interpolation is applicable to such problem of mathematical physics as modelling of Ziegler-Biersack-Littmark repulsive interatomic potentials. Formulated for finite fields, this problem arises in decoding Reed--Solomon codes. This paper shows the relation between different interpretations of the problem through the class of matrices of special structure - Hankel matrices.

Keywords: Berlekamp-Massey algorithm, exponential interpolation, finite fields, Hankel matrices, Hankel polynomials

Procedia PDF Downloads 510