Search results for: coverage planning

Authors: Loonibha Manandhar, Rajendra Bhandari, Kumud Raj Kafle

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Nepal’s Terai region is a part of the Ganges river basin which is one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world, with recurrent monsoon flooding causing millions in damage and the death and displacement of hundreds of people and households every year. The vulnerability of human settlements to natural disasters such as floods is increasing, and mapping changes in land use practices and hydro-geological parameters is essential in developing resilient communities and strong disaster management policies. The objective of this study was to develop a flood hazard zonation map of Orai Khola watershed and map the decadal land use/land cover dynamics of the watershed. The watershed area was delineated using SRTM DEM, and LANDSAT images were classified into five land use classes (forest, grassland, sediment and bare land, settlement area and cropland, and water body) using pixel-based semi-automated supervised maximum likelihood classification. Decadal changes in each class were then quantified using spatial modelling. Flood hazard mapping was performed by assigning weights to factors slope, rainfall distribution, distance from the river and land use/land cover on the basis of their estimated influence in causing flood hazard and performing weighed overlay analysis to identify areas that are highly vulnerable. The forest and grassland coverage increased by 11.53 km² (3.8%) and 1.43 km² (0.47%) from 1996 to 2016. The sediment and bare land areas decreased by 12.45 km² (4.12%) from 1996 to 2016 whereas settlement and cropland areas showed a consistent increase to 14.22 km² (4.7%). Waterbody coverage also increased to 0.3 km² (0.09%) from 1996-2016. 1.27% (3.65 km²) of total watershed area was categorized into very low hazard zone, 20.94% (60.31 km²) area into low hazard zone, 37.59% (108.3 km²) area into moderate hazard zone, 29.25% (84.27 km²) area into high hazard zone and 31 villages which comprised 10.95% (31.55 km²) were categorized into high hazard zone area.

Keywords: flood hazard, land use/land cover, Orai river, supervised maximum likelihood classification, weighed overlay analysis

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Authors: Victor V. Ribeiro, Thais C. Lopes, Rafael A. A. Monteiro

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The Albatroz, Baleia Jubarte, Coral Vivo, Golfinho Rotador and Tamar projects make up the Young Sea Network (YSN), part of the BIOMAR Network, which aims to integrate the environmental youths of the Brazilian coast. For this, three editions of the Young Sea Meeting (YSM) were performed. Seeking to stimulate belonging, self-knowledge, participation, autonomy and youth protagonism, the Albatroz Project hosted the III YSM, in Bertioga (SP), in April 2019 and aimed to collectively plan the meeting. Five pillars of Environmental Education were used: identity, community, dialogue, power to act and happiness, the OCA Method and the Young Educates Young; Young Chooses Young; and One Generation Learns from the Other principals. In December 2018, still in the II YSM, the participatory planning of the III YSM began. Two "representatives" of each group were voluntarily elected to facilitate joint decisions, propose, receive and communicate demands from their groups and coordinators. The Young Albatroz Collective (YAC) facilitated the organization process as a whole. The purpose of the meeting was collectively constructed, answering the following question: "What is the YSM for?". Only two of the five pairs of representatives responded. There was difficulty gathering the young people in each group, because it was the end of the year, with people traveling. Thus, due to the short planning time, the YAC built a pre-programming to be validated by the other groups, defining as the objective of the meeting the strengthening of youth protagonism within the YSN. In the planning process, the YAC held 20 meetings, with 60 hours of face-to-face work, in three months, and two technical visits to the headquarters of the III YSM. The participatory dynamics of consultation, when it occurred, required up to two weeks, evidencing the limits of participation. The project coordinations stated that they were not being included in the process by their young people. There is a need to work more to be able to aloud the participation, developing skills and understanding about its principles. This training must take place in an articulated way between the network, implying the important role of the five projects in jointly developing and implementing educator processes with this objective in a national dimension, but without forgetting the specificities of each young group. Finally, it is worth highlighting the great potential of the III YSM by stimulating the exercise of leading environmental youth in more than 50 young people from Brazilian coast, linked to the YSN, stimulating the learning and mobilization of young people in favor of coastal and marine conservation.

Keywords: Marine Conservation, Environmental Education, Youth, Participation, Planning

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Authors: Adline Nkwam-Uwaoma, Mishack Ndukwu

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Traditionally, child rearing in Nigeria closely reflects the ‘spare the rod and spoil the child’ maxim and as such spanking, flogging, slapping, beating and even starving a child as a form of punishment for wrongdoing and as a method of behaviour modification are common. These are not necessarily considered as maltreatment or abuse of the child. Despite the adoption and implementation of the child rights act in Nigeria, violence against children seems to be on a steady increase. Stories of sexual molestation, rape, child labour, infliction of physical injuries and use of children for rituals by parents, guardians or other members of the society abound. Violence against children is considered as those acts by other persons especially adults that undermine and threaten the healthy life and existence of children or those that violet their rights as humans. In Nigeria newspapers are a major source of News, second only to radio and television in coverage, currency and content. National dailies are newspapers with daily publications and national spread or coverage. This study analysed the frequency, length, prominence level, direction and sources of information reported on violence against children in the selected national daily newspapers. It then provided information on the role of the newspapers in Nigeria in the fight against child violence and public awareness of the impact of violence against children on the development of the nation and the attempts to curtail such violence. The composite week sampling technique in which the four weeks of the month are reduced to one and a sample is randomly selected from each day of the week was used. As such 168 editions of Daily Sun and Punch newspapers published from January to December of 2016 were selected. Data were collected using code sheet and analyzed via content analysis. The result showed that the frequency of the newspapers’ reportage of violence against children in Nigeria was low. Again, it was found that the length or space given to reports on violence against children was inadequate, the direction of the few reports on violence against children was in favour of the course or fight against child violence, and these newspapers gave no prominence to reports on violence against children. Finally, it was found that a major source of News about violence against children was through journalism; government and individual sources provided only minimal information.

Keywords: children, newspapers' reportage, Nigeria, violence

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Authors: Matthias Stange

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Building Information Modelling (BIM) is one of the most promising methods in the building design process and plays an important role in the digitalization of the Architectural, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) Industry. The application of BIM is seen as the key enabler for increasing productivity in the construction industry. The model-based collaboration using the BIM method is intended to significantly reduce cost increases, schedule delays, and quality problems in the planning and construction of buildings. Numerous qualitative studies based on expert interviews support this theory and report perceived benefits from the use of BIM in terms of achieving project objectives related to cost, schedule, and quality. However, there is a large research gap in analysing quantitative data collected from real construction projects regarding the actual benefits of applying BIM based on representative sample size and different application regions as well as different project typologies. In particular, the influence of the project-related BIM maturity level is completely unexplored. This research project examines primary data from 105 construction projects worldwide using quantitative research methods. Projects from the areas of residential, commercial, and industrial construction as well as infrastructure and hydraulic engineering were examined in application regions North America, Australia, Europe, Asia, MENA region, and South America. First, a descriptive data analysis of 6 independent project variables (BIM maturity level, application region, project category, project type, project size, and BIM level) were carried out using statistical methods. With the help of statisticaldata analyses, the influence of the project-related BIM maturity level on 6 dependent project variables (deviation in planning time, deviation in construction time, number of planning collisions, frequency of rework, number of RFIand number of changes) was investigated. The study revealed that most of the benefits of using BIM perceived through numerous qualitative studies have not been confirmed. The results of the examined sample show that the application of BIM did not have an improving influence on the dependent project variables, especially regarding the quality of the planning itself and the adherence to the schedule targets. The quantitative research suggests the conclusion that the BIM planning method in its current application has not (yet) become a recognizable increase in productivity within the planning and construction process. The empirical findings indicate that this is due to the overall low level of BIM maturity in the projects of the examined sample. As a quintessence, the author suggests that the further implementation of BIM should primarily focus on an application-oriented and consistent development of the project-related BIM maturity level instead of implementing BIM for its own sake. Apparently, there are still significant difficulties in the interweaving of people, processes, and technology.

Keywords: AEC-process, building information modeling, BIM maturity level, project results, productivity of the construction industry

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Authors: Rachel Koshy, Nazrila Hairizan Bt. Nasir, Samsiah Bt. Awang, Kamaliah Bt. Mohamad Noh

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Malaysia collaborated as a ‘trailblazer’ country with PHCPI (Primary Health Care Performance Initiative) to populate the Primary Health Care (PHC) Vital Signs Profile (VSP) for the country. The PHC VSP provides an innovative snapshot of the primary health care system's performance. Four domains were assessed: system financing, system capacity, system performance, and system equity, and completed in 2019. There were two phases using a mixed method study design. The first phase involved a quantitative study, utilising existing secondary data from national and international sources. In the case of unavailability of data for any indicators, comparable alternative indicators were used. The second phase was a mixed quantitative-qualitative approach to measure the functional capacity based on governance and leadership, population health needs, inputs, population health management, and facility organisation and management. PHC spending constituted 35% of overall health spending in Malaysia, with a per capita PHC spending of $152. The capacity domain was strong in the three subdomains of governance and leadership, information system, and funds management. The two subdomains of drugs & supplies and facility organisation & management had low scores, but the lowest score was in empanelment of the population under the population health management. The PHC system performed with an access index of 98%, quality index of 84%, and service coverage of 62%. In the equity domain, there was little fluctuation in the coverage of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health services by mother’s level of education and under-five child mortality between urban and rural areas. The public sector was stronger in the capacity domain as compared to the private sector. This is due to the different financing, organisational structures, and service delivery mechanism. The VSP has identified areas for improvement in the effort to provide high-quality PHC for the population. The gaps in PHC can be addressed through the system approach and the positioning of public and private primary health care delivery systems.

Keywords: primary health care, health system, system domains, vital signs profile

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Authors: Stephen Rulisa, Aimee Nyiramahirwe

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Background: Strategies to increase the uptake of contraception services have been adopted in Rwanda, but the unmet need for family planning remains high. Women in the postpartum period are at higher risk for unintended pregnancy due to the silent conversion from lactational amenorrhea to reactivation of ovulatory cycles. The purpose of this study was to explore the role of male partners in the uptake of postpartum contraception. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted among women who delivered at the University Teaching Hospital of Kigali for a period of 3 months with random sampling. A questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic and antenatal data, information on male companionship, and intent to use postpartum contraception at admission. Participants were contacted six weeks later to collect data on contraceptive use. The outcome variables were uptake of postpartum contraception and types of contraceptives taken (long-acting vs. short-acting), controlling for male companionship during the antenatal period. A Chi-square test was used and a p-value ≤0.05 was considered significant. Results: A total of 209 women were recruited with a mean age of 30.8±5.2 years. The majority (60.9%) were multigravida, and 66.5% were multiparous. More than half (55%) had male partner companionship, 18.3% had companionship for four antenatal visits, and 28.2% had education on contraception with their male partner. Factors significantly associated with uptake of postpartum contraception were: age above 30 years, owning or heading a business, multigravidity, multiparity, antenatal care at a health center or district hospital, cesarean delivery, and previous utilization of contraception. Male companionship significantly increased the intent to use contraception, uptake of modern contraception in general, and uptake of long active contraceptives but did not predict the uptake of short-acting contraceptives. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates a positive association between male companionship during antenatal care, labor and delivery with the uptake of postpartum family planning. Our study suggests more sensitization to involve the male partners, improving the education on contraception during antenatal care and further research to assess the sustained uptake of contraception beyond the postpartum period.

Keywords: postpartum, family planning, contraception, male partner, uptake

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Authors: Lonna Mabandla, Godfrey Musvoto

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Transportation is a catalytic feature in cities. Transport and land use activity are interdependent and have a feedback loop between how land is developed and how transportation systems are designed and used. This recursive relationship between land use and transportation is reflected in how public transportation routes internal to the inner-city enhance accessibility, therefore creating spaces that are conducive to business activity, while the business activity also informs public transportation routes. It is for this reason that the focus of this research is on public transportation within inner-city areas where the dynamic is evident. Durban is the chosen case study where the dominating form of public transportation within the central business district (CBD) is minibus taxis. The paradox here is that minibus taxis still form part of the informal economy even though they are the leading form of public transportation in South Africa. There have been many attempts to formalise this industry to follow more regulatory practices, but minibus taxis are privately owned, therefore complicating any proposed intervention. The argument of this study is that the application of collaborative planning through a sustainable partnership between the public and private sectors will improve the social and environmental sustainability of public transportation. One of the major challenges that exist within such collaborative endeavors is power dynamics. As a result, a key focus of the study is on power relations. Practically, power relations should be observed over an extended period, specifically when the different stakeholders engage with each other, to reflect valid data. However, a lengthy data collection process was not possible to observe during the data collection phase of this research. Instead, interviews were conducted focusing on existing procedural planning practices between the inner-city minibus taxi association (South and North Beach Taxi Association), the eThekwini Transport Authority (ETA), and the eThekwini Town Planning Department. Conclusions and recommendations were then generated based on these data.

Keywords: collaborative planning, sustainability, public transport, minibus taxis

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Authors: Diana F. Lopes, Jorge Simoes, José Martins, Eduardo Castro

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Health professionals are the keystone of any health system, by delivering health services to the population. Given the time and cost involved in training new health professionals, the planning process of the health workforce is particularly important as it ensures a proper balance between the supply and demand of these professionals and it plays a central role on the Health 2020 policy. In the past 40 years, the planning of the health workforce in Portugal has been conducted in a reactive way lacking a prospective vision based on an integrated, comprehensive and valid analysis. This situation may compromise not only the productivity and the overall socio-economic development but the quality of the healthcare services delivered to patients. This is even more critical given the expected shortage of the health workforce in the future. Furthermore, Portugal is facing an aging context of some professional classes (physicians and nurses). In 2015, 54% of physicians in Portugal were over 50 years old, and 30% of all members were over 60 years old. This phenomenon associated to an increasing emigration of young health professionals and a change in the citizens’ illness profiles and expectations must be considered when planning resources in healthcare. The perspective of sudden retirement of large groups of professionals in a short time is also a major problem to address. Another challenge to embrace is the health workforce imbalances, in which Portugal has one of the lowest nurse to physician ratio, 1.5, below the European Region and the OECD averages (2.2 and 2.8, respectively). Within the scope of the HEALTH 2040 project – which aims to estimate the ‘Future needs of human health resources in Portugal till 2040’ – the present study intends to get a comprehensive dynamic approach of the problem, by (i) estimating the needs of physicians and nurses in Portugal, by specialties and by quinquenium till 2040; (ii) identifying the training needs of physicians and nurses, in medium and long term, till 2040, and (iii) estimating the number of students that must be admitted into medicine and nursing training systems, each year, considering the different categories of specialties. The development of such approach is significantly more critical in the context of limited budget resources and changing health care needs. In this context, this study presents the drivers of the healthcare needs’ evolution (such as the demographic and technological evolution, the future expectations of the users of the health systems) and it proposes a Bayesian methodology, combining the best available data with experts opinion, to model such evolution. Preliminary results considering different plausible scenarios are presented. The proposed methodology will be integrated in a user-friendly decision support system so it can be used by politicians, with the potential to measure the impact of health policies, both at the regional and the national level.

Keywords: bayesian estimation, health economics, health workforce planning, human health resources planning

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Authors: Aimilia Vlami

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This paper examines the tourist economic development of Greece on the basis of the analysis of the main characteristics of the financing and development processes and the spatial and temporal structure of supply and demand. Taking into consideration the evolution of the economic planning and the policy for the tourist development of Greece over time, we study at the same time: the composition, the changes and the dynamics of the hotel industry in the last 20 years and especially the period of the economic adjustment programmes, where tourism has become a key pillar of development. It is clearly evident that this paper is written in a specific economic situation, which directs as much the emphases as the flow of arguments around the central question of balance of interventions in the tourist space, between the need for planning and practice of policy for sustainable tourist growth and in the de facto adaptation of fragmentary and urgent interventions of shaping and transforming the tourist space, as they are shaped by the requirements of various institutions and interest groups.

Keywords: development, Greece, hospitality, economic policy, tourism investments

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Authors: Saad Saeed Althiabi

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There is great progress in formulating and executing legislative policies in GCC, however, the public participation in formulating and in major decision making still remains weak. Drawing attention on the international law of public participation in construction and natural resource management, this paper aims in creating a feasible legislative framework for extensive public participation in the industries such as construction and oil and gas decision-making that GCC can implement. This paper would address the conflicts associated with the management and creation of legislation and ensuring public participation for the creation of a practical framework. A feasible legislative framework must take into account the various factors that shape the effectiveness of participation and the elements that promote the objectives of participation. It is premised on the ground that viewing to international prescriptions might help to reveal gaps in domestic laws, as well as alternatives to overcome them.

Keywords: legislative policies, public participation, planning legislation, GCC countries, international law

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Authors: Taleb Odeh, Nizar Abu-Jaber, Nour Khries

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The southern part of Wadi Al Yarmouk catchment area covers north of Jordan. It locates within latitudes 32° 20’ to 32° 45’N and longitudes 35° 42’ to 36° 23’ E and has an area of about 1426 km2. However, it has high relief topography where the elevation varies between 50 to 1100 meter above sea level. The variations in the topography causes different units of landforms, climatic zones, land covers and plant species. As a results of these different landscapes units exists in that region. Spatial planning is a major challenge in such a vital area for Jordan which could not be achieved without determining landscape units. However, an integrated approach of remote sensing and geographic information Systems (GIS) is an optimized tool to investigate and map landscape units of such a complicated area. Remote sensing has the capability to collect different land surface data, of large landscape areas, accurately and in different time periods. GIS has the ability of storage these land surface data, analyzing them spatially and present them in form of professional maps. We generated a geo-land surface data that include land cover, rock units, soil units, plant species and digital elevation model using ASTER image and Google Earth while analyzing geo-data spatially were done by ArcGIS 10.2 software. We found that there are twenty two different landscape units in the study area which they have to be considered for any spatial planning in order to avoid and environmental problems.

Keywords: landscape, spatial planning, GIS, spatial analysis, remote sensing

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Authors: N. Mahmoudi, B. Guedim

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Composite materials have important assets compared to traditional materials. They bring many functional advantages: lightness, mechanical resistance and chemical, etc. In the present study we examine the effect of a circular central notch and a precrack on the tensile fracture of two woven composite materials. The tensile tests were applied to a standardized specimen, notched and a precracked (orientation of the crack 0°, 45°, and 90°). These tensile tests were elaborated according to an experimental planning design of the type 23.31 requiring 24 experiments with three repetitions. By the analysis of regression, we obtained a mathematical model describing the maximum load according to the influential parameters (hole diameter, precrack length, angle of a precrack orientation). The specimens precracked at 90° have a better behavior than those having a precrack at 45° and still better than those having of the precracks oriented at 0°. In addition the maximum load is inversely proportional to the notch size.

Keywords: polymer matrix, glasses, fracture, precracks

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Authors: Hyunjoo Park, Taehyun Kim, Taehyun Kim

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Human life, activity, and culture depend on the wider environment. Cities offer economic opportunities for goods and services, but cannot exist in environments without food, energy, and water supply. Technological innovation in energy supply and transport speeds up the expansion of urban areas and the physical separation from agricultural land. As a result, division of urban agricultural areas causes more energy demand for food and goods transport between the regions. As the energy resources are leaking all over the world, the impact on the environment crossing the boundaries of cities is also growing. While advances in energy and other technologies can reduce the environmental impact of consumption, there is still a gap between energy supply and demand by current technology, even in technically advanced countries. Therefore, reducing energy demand is more realistic than relying solely on the development of technology for sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to introduce the application of carbon footprint assessment in fields of urban planning and geography. In urban studies, carbon footprint has been assessed at different geographical scales, such as nation, city, region, household, and individual. Carbon footprint assessment for a nation and a city is available by using national or city level statistics of energy consumption categories. By means of carbon footprint calculation, it is possible to compare the ecological capacity and deficit among nations and cities. Carbon footprint also offers great insight on the geographical distribution of carbon intensity at a regional level in the agricultural field. The study shows the background of carbon footprint applications in urban planning and geography by case studies such as figuring out sustainable land-use measures in urban planning and geography. For micro level, footprint quiz or survey can be adapted to measure household and individual carbon footprint. For example, first case study collected carbon footprint data from the survey measuring home energy use and travel behavior of 2,064 households in eight cities in Gyeonggi-do, Korea. Second case study analyzed the effects of the net and gross population densities on carbon footprint of residents at an intra-urban scale in the capital city of Seoul, Korea. In this study, the individual carbon footprint of residents was calculated by converting the carbon intensities of home and travel fossil fuel use of respondents to the unit of metric ton of carbon dioxide (tCO₂) by multiplying the conversion factors equivalent to the carbon intensities of each energy source, such as electricity, natural gas, and gasoline. Carbon footprint is an important concept not only for reducing climate change but also for sustainable development. As seen in case studies carbon footprint may be measured and applied in various spatial units, including but not limited to countries and regions. These examples may provide new perspectives on carbon footprint application in planning and geography. In addition, additional concerns for consumption of food, goods, and services can be included in carbon footprint calculation in the area of urban planning and geography.

Keywords: carbon footprint, case study, geography, urban planning

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Authors: Ram Chandra Sah

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Few years back, naturally a very beautiful country Nepal was facing a lot of problems related to the practice of open defecation (having no toilet) by almost 98% people of the country. Now, the scenario is changed. Government of Nepal set the target of achieving the situation of basic level sanitation (toilets) facilities by 2017 AD for which the Sanitation and Hygiene Master Plan (SHMP) was brought in 2011 AD with the major beauty as institutional set up formation, local formal authority leadership, locally formulated strategic plan; partnership, harmonized and coordinated approach to working; no subsidy or support at a blanket level, community and local institutions or organizations mobilization approaches. Now, the Open Defecation Free (ODF) movement in the country is at a full swing. The Sanitation and Hygiene Master Plan (SHMP) has clearly defined Total Sanitation which is accepted to be achieved if all the households of the related boundary have achieved the 6 indicators such as the access and regular use of toilet(s), regular use of soap and water at the critical moments, regular practice of use of food hygiene behavior, regular practice of use of water hygiene behavior including household level purification of locally available drinking water, maintenance of regular personal hygiene with household level waste management and the availability of the state of overall clean environment at the concerned level of boundary. Nepal has 3158 Village Development Committees (VDC's) in the rural areas. Amarapuri VDC was selected for the purpose of achieving Total Sanitation. Based on the SHMP; different methodologies such as updating of Village Water Sanitation and Hygiene Coordination Committee (V-WASH-CC), Total Sanitation team formation including one volunteer for each indicator, campaigning through settlement meetings, midterm evaluation which revealed the need of ward level 45 (5 for all 9 wards) additional volunteers, ward wise awareness creation with the help of the volunteers, informative notice boards and hoarding boards with related messages at important locations, management of separate waste disposal rings for decomposable and non-decomposable wastes, related messages dissemination through different types of local cultural programs, public toilets construction and management by community level; mobilization of local schools, offices and health posts; reward and recognition to contributors etc. were adopted for achieving 100 % coverage of each indicator. The VDC was in a very worse situation in 2010 with just 50, 30, 60, 60, 40, 30 percent coverage of the respective indicators and became the first VDC of the country declared with Total Sanitation. The expected result of 100 percent coverage of all the indicators was achieved in 2 years 10 months and 19 days. Experiences of Amarapuri were replicated successfully in different parts of the country and many VDC's have been declared with the achievement of Total Sanitation. Thus, Community Mobilized Total Sanitation Movement in Nepal has supported a lot for achieving a Total Sanitation situation of the country with a minimal cost and it is believed that the approach can be very useful for other developing or under developed countries of the world.

Keywords: community mobilized, open defecation free, sanitation and hygiene master plan, total sanitation

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Authors: Govindaraj Ramanathan

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The time delay and the structural stability are major issues in big size projects due to several factors. Improper planning and poor coordination lead to delay in construction, which sometimes result in reworking or rebuilding. This definitely increases the cost and time of project. This situation stresses the structural engineers to plan out of the limits of contemporary technology utilizing non-chronological approach with creative ideas. One of the strategies to solve this issue is through structural integrity solutions in a cost-effective way. We have faced several problems in a project worth 470 million USD, and one such issue is crane girder installation with composite steel beams. We have applied structural integrity approach with the proper and revised planning schedule to solve the problem efficiently with minimal expenses.

Keywords: construction management, delay, non-chronological approach, composite beam, structural integrity

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Authors: Maziar Yazdani, Ahmad Khodaee, Fatemeh Hajizadeh

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The purpose of this research was analysis of the reliability of the signaling system in the railway and planning repair and maintenance of its subsystems. For this purpose, it will be endeavored to introduce practical strategies for activities control and appropriate planning for repair and preventive maintenance by statistical modeling of reliability. Therefore, modeling, evaluation, and promotion of reliability of the signaling system appear very critical. Among the key goals of the railway is provision of quality service for passengers and this purpose is gained by increasing reliability, availability, maintainability and safety of (RAMS). In this research, data were analyzed, and the reliability of the subsystems and entire system was calculated and with emphasis on preservation of performance of each of the subsystems with a reliability of 80%, a plan for repair and preventive maintenance of the subsystems of the signaling system was introduced.

Keywords: reliability, modeling reliability, plan for repair and preventive maintenance, signaling system

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Authors: Taye O. Famuditi, Jonathan Potts, Malcolm Bray

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This paper examines the shoreline management planning policy in England and its suitability for ameliorating the diverse environmental problems associated with Nigeria’s coastal zones. It examines the success of SMPs in England since the mid-1990s and progress achieved, with the aim of understudying the current management approach that can be transferred to Nigeria to strengthen its adoption, and as a necessary corollary, implementation of the SMPs. This paper also examines key elements of the shoreline management frameworks in England and provides answers to the question: Would shoreline management planning approach in England be appropriate and feasible in Nigeria? It further concludes that many of the action plans and principles of participation should be adoptable provided that a participatory approach that involves all stakeholders including community members and relevant sectorial ministries as well as appropriate legal framework is encouraged.

Keywords: shoreline management plans, coastal zone management, stakeholder engagement, participatory approach, Nigeria

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Authors: Jie-Ying Wu, Kuo-Hao Weng, Jin-Cheng Fu

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This study proposes changes to land use for the purposes of water retention and runoff reduction, with the aim of reducing the frequency of flooding. This study uses the Zhuoshui River in Taiwan as a case study, designing different land use planning strategies, and setting up various detention spaces. The HEC-HMS model developed by the Hydrology Research Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is used to calculate the decrease in runoff using various planning strategies, during five precipitation events of increasing return periods. This study finds that a maximum decrease in runoff of 14 million square meters can result by changing the form of land cover and storm detention in non-urban agricultural and river zones. This is due to the fact that non-urban land accounts for 96% of the area under study. Greatest efficacy was demonstrated in a two-year return period, with results ranging from 16% to 52%. The efficacy of a 100-year return period rated from 3% to 8%. Urban area detentions consist of agricultural paddy fields, storm water ponds and rainwater retention systems in building basements. Although urban areas can provide one million cubic meters of runoff storage, this result is insignificant due to the fact that urban area constitutes only 4% of the study area. By changing land cover, a 2-year return period has a 9% efficacy, and a 100-year return period has a 2% efficacy.

Keywords: flood detention space, land-use, spatial planning, Zhuoshuei River, Taiwan

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Authors: Nadhir Al-Ansari, Ammar A. Ali, Sven Knutsson

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Iraq is located in the Middle East. It covers an area of 433,970 square kilometres populated by about 32 million inhabitants. Iraq greatly relies in its water resources on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. Recently, Iraq is suffering from water shortage problems. This is due to external and internal factors. The former includes global warming and water resources policies of neighbouring countries while the latter includes mismanagement of its water resources. The supply and demand are predicted to be 43 and 66.8 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) respectively in 2015, while in 2025 it will be 17.61 and 77 BCM respectively. In addition, future prediction suggests that Tigris and Euphrates Rivers will be completely dry in 2040. To overcome this problem, prudent water management policies are to be adopted. This includes Strategic Water Management Vision, development of irrigation techniques, reduction of water losses, use of non-conventional water resources and research and development planning.

Keywords: Iraq, Tigris River, Euphrates River, water scarcity, water resources management

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Authors: M. A. Hernández-Ceballos, M. Marín-Ferrer, G. Cinelli, L. De Felice, T. Tollefsen, E. Nweke, P. V. Tognoli, S. Vanzo, M. De Cort

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This study analyses the latitudinal impact of the spatial and temporal distribution on the cosmogenic isotope 7Be in surface air along Europe. The long-term database of the 6 sampling sites (Ivalo, Helsinki, Berlin, Freiburg, Sevilla and La Laguna), that regularly provide data to the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) network managed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Ispra, were used. The selection of the stations was performed attending to different factors, such as 1) heterogeneity in terms of latitude and altitude, and 2) long database coverage. The combination of these two parameters ensures a high degree of representativeness of the results. In the later, the temporal coverage varies between stations, being used in the present study sampling stations with a database more or less continuously from 1984 to 2011. The mean values of 7Be activity concentration presented a spatial distribution value ranging from 2.0 ± 0.9 mBq/m3 (Ivalo, north) to 4.8 ± 1.5 mBq/m3 (La Laguna, south). An increasing gradient with latitude was observed from the north to the south, 0.06 mBq/m3. However, there was no correlation with altitude, since all stations are sited within the atmospheric boundary layer. The analyses of the data indicated a dynamic range of 7Be activity for solar cycle and phase (maximum or minimum), having been observed different impact on stations according to their location. The results indicated a significant seasonal behavior, with the maximum concentrations occurring in the summer and minimum in the winter, although with differences in the values reached and in the month registered. Due to the large heterogeneity in the temporal pattern with which the individual radionuclide analyses were performed in each station, the 7Be monthly index was calculated to normalize the measurements and perform the direct comparison of monthly evolution among stations. Different intensity and evolution of the mean monthly index were observed. The knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of this natural radionuclide in the atmosphere is a key parameter for modeling studies of atmospheric processes, which are important phenomena to be taken into account in the case of a nuclear accident.

Keywords: Berilium-7, latitudinal impact in Europe, seasonal and monthly variability, solar cycle

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Authors: Samain Sabrin, Joshua Pratt, Joshua Bryk, Maryam Karimi

Abstract:

Globally, extreme heat events have led to a surge in the number of heat-related moralities. These incidents are further exacerbated in high-density population centers due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Varieties of anthropogenic activities such as unsupervised land surface modifications, expansion of impervious areas, and lack of use of vegetation are all contributors to an increase in the amount of heat flux trapped by an urban canopy which intensifies the UHI effect. This project aims to propose a systematic approach to measure the impact of air quality and increased temperature based on urban morphology in the selected metropolitan cities. This project will measure the impact of build environment for urban and regional planning using human biometeorological evaluations (mean radiant temperature, Tmrt). We utilized the Rayman model (capable of calculating short and long wave radiation fluxes affecting the human body) to estimate the Tmrt in an urban environment incorporating location and height of buildings and trees as a supplemental tool in urban planning, and street design. Our current results suggest a strong correlation between building height and increased surface temperature in megacities. This model will help with; 1. Quantify the impacts of the built environment and surface properties on surrounding temperature, 2. Identify priority urban neighborhoods by analyzing Tmrt and air quality data at pedestrian level, 3. Characterizing the need for urban green infrastructure or better urban planning- maximizing the cooling benefit from existing Urban Green Infrastructure (UGI), and 4. Developing a hierarchy of streets for new UGI integration and propose new UGI based on site characteristics and cooling potential.

Keywords: air quality, heat mitigation, human-biometeorological indices, increased temperature, mean radiant temperature, radiation flux, sustainable development, thermal comfort, urban canopy, urban planning

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Authors: Dong Yue, Hua Chen

Abstract:

The study region Xihu Harbor in Xiangshan County, Ningbo City is located in the central coast of Zhejiang Province. Concerning the wave dispating issue, Ningbo government firstly introduced Spartina alterniflora in 1980s. In the 1990s, S. alterniflora spread so rapidly thus a ‘grassland’ in the sea has been created nowadays. It has become the most important invasive plant of China’s coastal tidal flats. Although S. alterniflora had some ecological and economic functions, it has also brought series of hazards. It has ecological hazards on many aspects, including biomass and biodiversity, hydrodynamic force and sedimentation process, nutrient cycling of tidal flat, succession sequence of soil and plants and so on. On engineering, it courses problems of poor drainage and channel blocking. On economy, the hazard mainly reflected in the threat on aquaculture industry. The purpose of this study is to explore an ecological, feasible and economical way to manage Spartina alterniflora and use the land formed by it, taking Xihu Harbor in Xiangshan County as a case. Comparison method, mathematical modeling, qualitative and quantitative analysis are utilized to proceed the study. Main outcomes are as follows. By comparing a series of S. alterniflora managing methods which include the combination of mechanical cutting and hydraulic reclamation, waterlogging, herbicide and biological substitution from three standpoints – ecology, engineering and economy. It is inferred that the combination of mechanical cutting and hydraulic reclamation is among the top rank of S. alternifora managing methods. The combination of mechanical cutting and hydraulic reclamation means using large-scale mechanical equipment like large screw seagoing dredger to excavate the S. alterniflora with root and mud together. Then the mix of mud and grass was blown off nearby coastal tidal zone transported by pipelines, which can cushion the silt of tidal zone to form a land. However, as man-made land by coast, the reclamation area’s ecological sensitivity is quite high and will face high possibility of flood threat. Therefore, the reclamation area has many reasonability requirements, including ones on location, specific scope, water surface rate, direction of main watercourse, site of water-gate, the ratio of ecological land to urban construction land. These requirements all became important basis when the planning was being made. The water system planning, green space system planning, road structure and land use all need to accommodate the ecological requests. Besides, the profits from the formed land is the managing project’s source of funding, so how to utilize land efficiently is another considered point in the planning. It is concluded that by aiming at managing a large area of S. alterniflora, the combination of mechanical cutting and hydraulic reclamation is an ecological, feasible and economical method. The planning of reclamation area should fully respect the natural environment and possible disasters. Then the planning which makes land use efficient, reasonable, ecological will promote the development of the area’s city construction.

Keywords: ecological management, ecological planning method, reclamation area, Spartina alternifora, Xihu harbor

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Authors: Akbar Haghzadeh Saraskanroud, Amir Hossein Yahyavi Zanjani, Niloofar Kargar, Hanieh Ahrabi

Abstract:

Cervical cancer refers to an unusual growth of cells in the cervix. The cervix is the lower part of the uterus, which connects to the vagina. Various risk factors such as human papillomavirus (HPV), having a weakened immune system, smoking or breathing in secondhand smoke, reproductive factors, and obesity play important roles in causing most cervical cancers. When cervical cancer happens, surgery is often the first treatment option to remove it. Other treatments might include chemotherapy and targeted therapy medicines. Radiation therapy with high-energy photon beams also may be used. Sometimes combined treatment, including radiation with low-dose chemotherapy, was applied. Intracavitary brachytherapy is an integral part of radiotherapy for locally advanced gynecologic malignancies such as cervical cancer. In the treatment of cervical cancer, there are different tools for doing brachytherapy. Two combinations of different applicators for this purpose are Tandem and Ovoid and Tandem and Ring. This study evaluated the dose differences between these two methods in the organs at risk of the rectum, sigmoid, and bladder. In this study, the treatment planswere simulated by the Oncentra treatment planning system and Tandem, Ovid, and Rings of different sizes. CT scan images of 23 patients were treated with HDR_BT Elekta Flexitron system were used for this study. Contouring of HR-CTV, rectum and bladder was performed for all patients. Then, the received dose of 0.1 and 0.2cc volumes of organs at risk were obtained and compared for these two methods: T-Ovoid and T-Ring. By doing investigations and dose measurements of points A and B and the volumes specified by ICRU, it seems that when comparing ring and ovoid to tandem and ovoid, the total dose to the rectum was lower by about 11%, and the bladder was 7%. In the case of HR CTV, this comparison showed that this ratio is about 7% better. Figure 1 shows the amount of decrease in rectum dose in the T-Ring method compared to T-Ovoid. Figure 2 indicates the amount of decrease in bladder dose in the T-Ring method compared to T-Ovoid. Finally, figure 3 illustrates the amount of HR-CTV coverage in the T-Ring method compared to the T-Ovoid.

Keywords: cervical cancer, brachytherapy, rectum, tandem and ovoid, tandem and ring.

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Authors: Yanqun Li, Hong Geng

Abstract:

The rapid urbanization process taking big cities as the main body leads to the unequal configuration of urban and rural areas in the aspects of land supply, industrial division of labor, service supply and space allocation, and induces the shrinking characterization of service energy, industrial system and population vitality in small towns. As an important spatial unit in the spectrum of urbanization that serves, connects and couples urban and rural areas, the shrinking phenomenon faced by small towns has an important influence on the healthy development of urbanization. Based on the census of small towns in Wuhan metropolitan area, we have found that the shrinking of small towns is a passive contraction of elastic tension under the squeeze in cities. Once affected by the external forces such as policy regulation, planning guidance, and population return, small towns will achieve expansion and growth. Based on the theory of complex adaptive systems, this paper comprehensively constructs the development index evaluation system of small towns from five aspects of population, economy, space, society and ecology, measures the shrinking level of small towns, further analyzes the shrinking characteristics of small towns, and identifies whether the shrinking is elastic or not. And then this paper measures the resilience ability index of small town contract from the above-mentioned five aspects. Finally, this paper proposes an adaptive mechanism of urban-rural interaction evolution under fine division of labor to response the passive shrinking in small towns of Wuhan. Based on the above, the paper creatively puts forward the planning response measures of the small towns on the aspects of spatial layout, function orientation and service support, which can provide reference for other regions.

Keywords: complex adaptive systems, resiliency shrinking, adaptation mechanism, planning response

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Authors: Tingke Wu, Man Yuan

Abstract:

“National Territorial Planning (2016-2030)” was issued by the State Council of China in 2017. As an important initiative of putting it into effect, territorial planning at provincial level makes overall arrangement of territorial development, resources and environment protection, comprehensive renovation and security system construction. Hubei province, as the pivot of the “Rise of Central China” national strategy, is now confronted with great opportunities and challenges in territorial development, protection, and renovation. Territorial spatial pattern experiences long time evolution, influenced by multiple internal and external driving forces. It is not clear what are the main causes of its formation and what are effective ways of optimizing it. By analyzing land use data in 2016, this paper reveals present status of territory in Hubei. Combined with economic and social data and construction information, driving forces of territorial spatial pattern are then analyzed. Research demonstrates that the three types of territorial space aggregate distinctively. The four aspects of driving forces include natural background which sets the stage for main functions, population and economic factors which generate agglomeration effect, transportation infrastructure construction which leads to axial expansion and significant provincial strategies which encourage the established path. On this basis, targeted strategies for optimizing territory spatial pattern are then put forward. Hierarchical protection pattern should be established based on development intensity control as respect for nature. By optimizing the layout of population and industry and improving the transportation network, polycentric network-based development pattern could be established. These findings provide basis for Hubei Territorial Planning, and reference for future territorial planning in other provinces.

Keywords: driving forces, Hubei, optimizing strategies, spatial pattern, territory

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Authors: Hoang Vo Thi Minh, Duyen Nguyen Thi Phuong, Gerardo Van Halsema

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As one of the deltas which is extremely vulnerable to climate change, the Mekong Delta, Vietnam is facing many challenges that need to be addressed in strategic and holistic ways. In this study scope, a strategic delta planning is recently considered as a new vision of Adaptive Delta Management for the Mekong Delta. In Adaptive Delta Management, Room for the Rivers (RftR) has been formulated as a typical innovation, which is currently in need of careful consideration for implementing in the Mekong Delta’s planning process. This study then attempts to investigate the roles and analyze sociological aspects of the RftR as potential strategic 'soft' measure, in upstream of Hau River in An Phu district, An Giang province, especially in terms of its so-called multifunctions. The study applied social science approach embedded with a few qualitative methods including in-depth interviews and questionnaire distribution and conjoint analysis as a quantitative approach. The former mainly aims at gaining the local community’s perceptions about the RftR solution. The latter tries to gain farmers’ willingness to accept (WTA) with regard to their level of preference towards the three selected solutions which are considered as strategic plans for sustainably developing the MD. Qualitative data analysis shows that, farmers perceive RftR as very useful for their livelihoods due to its multifunctions as well as in terms of water management. The quantitative results illustrated that respondents expressed their WTAs on RftR as 84. 240 thousand VND / year. Amongst the three solutions that are analysed within this study (Floating rice for upper delta, Room for the Rivers for the Middle, and Shrimp-Mangrove integration for the coastal delta), RfrR was ranked as second preference from respondents. This result is not exactly reflecting the real values of these three mentioned solutions but showing a tendency that can be seen as a reference for the decision-makers in delta planning processes.

Keywords: strategic delta planning, room for the River, farmers’ perception, willingness-to-accept, local livelihoods

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Authors: Monika Nuffer, Wesley Nuffer

Abstract:

The problem of obesity is one that continues to be faced in the United States health care system and across the developing world. Prescription medications are available, but are often very expensive with minimal insurance coverage. The over-the-counter diet aid industry is a robust one, selling billions of dollars in products every year. It is important for clinicians to understand the myriad of different nutritional supplements marketed for obesity, and to weigh the evidence behind these products. This manuscript outlines the most commonly used nutritional supplements currently marketed for weight loss, reviewing the evidence with a focus on the efficacy and safety of these products.

Keywords: obesity, weight loss, herbal products, nutritional supplements

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

Abstract:

Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Herawanti Kumalasari, Raldi Hendro Koestoer, Hayati Sari Hasibuan

Abstract:

Geographically, Indonesia is located in the arc of volcanoes that cause disaster prone one of them is landslide disaster. One of the causes of the landslide is the conversion of land from forest to agricultural land in upland areas and river border that has a steep slope. The study area is located in the highlands with fertile soil conditions, so most of the land is used as agricultural land and plantations. Land use transfer also occurs around the geothermal field in Pangalengan District, West Java Province which will threaten the sustainability of geothermal energy utilization and the safety of the community. The purpose of this research is to arrange the concept of spatial pattern arrangement in the geothermal area based on disaster mitigation. This research method using superimpose analysis. Superimpose analysis to know the basic physical condition of the planned area through the overlay of disaster risk map with the map of the plan of spatial plan pattern of Bandung Regency Spatial Plan. The results of the analysis will then be analyzed spatially. The results have shown that most of the study areas were at moderate risk level. Planning of spatial pattern of existing study area has not fully considering the spread of disaster risk that there are settlement area and the agricultural area which is in high landslide risk area. The concept of the arrangement of the spatial pattern of the study area will use zoning system which is divided into three zones namely core zone, buffer zone and development zone.

Keywords: spatial planning, geothermal, disaster risk, zoning

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Authors: Douglas A. Menezes, Isabel D. Nunes, Ulrich Schiel

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Most Virtual Learning Environments do not provide support mechanisms for the integrated planning, construction and follow-up of Instructional Design supported by Learning Analytic results. The present work aims to present an authoring tool that will be responsible for constructing the structure of an Instructional Design (ID), without the data being altered during the execution of the course. The visual interface aims to present the critical situations present in this ID, serving as a support tool for the course follow-up and possible improvements, which can be made during its execution or in the planning of a new edition of this course. The model for the ID is based on High-Level Petri Nets and the visualization forms are determined by the specific kind of the data generated by an e-course, a population of students generating sequentially dependent data.

Keywords: educational data visualization, high-level petri nets, instructional design, learning analytics

Procedia PDF Downloads 243