Search results for: regression hypothesis

Authors: Lucille Alonso, Florent Renard

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The characterizations of urban heat island (UHI) and their interactions with climate change and urban climates are the main research and public health issue, due to the increasing urbanization of the population. These solutions require a better knowledge of the UHI and micro-climate in urban areas, by combining measurements and modelling. This study is part of this topic by evaluating microclimatic conditions in dense urban areas in the Lyon Metropolitan Area (France) using a combination of data traditionally used such as topography, but also from LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) data, Landsat 8 satellite observation and Sentinel and ground measurements by bike. These bicycle-dependent weather data collections are used to build the database of the variable to be modelled, the air temperature, over Lyon’s hyper-center. This study aims to model the air temperature, measured during 6 mobile campaigns in Lyon in clear weather, using multiple linear regressions based on 33 explanatory variables. They are of various categories such as meteorological parameters from remote sensing, topographic variables, vegetation indices, the presence of water, humidity, bare soil, buildings, radiation, urban morphology or proximity and density to various land uses (water surfaces, vegetation, bare soil, etc.). The acquisition sources are multiple and come from the Landsat 8 and Sentinel satellites, LiDAR points, and cartographic products downloaded from an open data platform in Greater Lyon. Regarding the presence of low, medium, and high vegetation, the presence of buildings and ground, several buffers close to these factors were tested (5, 10, 20, 25, 50, 100, 200 and 500m). The buffers with the best linear correlations with air temperature for ground are 5m around the measurement points, for low and medium vegetation, and for building 50m and for high vegetation is 100m. The explanatory model of the dependent variable is obtained by multiple linear regression of the remaining explanatory variables (Pearson correlation matrix with a |r| < 0.7 and VIF with < 5) by integrating a stepwise sorting algorithm. Moreover, holdout cross-validation is performed, due to its ability to detect over-fitting of multiple regression, although multiple regression provides internal validation and randomization (80% training, 20% testing). Multiple linear regression explained, on average, 72% of the variance for the study days, with an average RMSE of only 0.20°C. The impact on the model of surface temperature in the estimation of air temperature is the most important variable. Other variables are recurrent such as distance to subway stations, distance to water areas, NDVI, digital elevation model, sky view factor, average vegetation density, or building density. Changing urban morphology influences the city's thermal patterns. The thermal atmosphere in dense urban areas can only be analysed on a microscale to be able to consider the local impact of trees, streets, and buildings. There is currently no network of fixed weather stations sufficiently deployed in central Lyon and most major urban areas. Therefore, it is necessary to use mobile measurements, followed by modelling to characterize the city's multiple thermal environments.

Keywords: air temperature, LIDAR, multiple linear regression, surface temperature, urban heat island

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Authors: Amitha Puranik, V. S. Binu, Seena Biju

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Missing data is a common problem in spatial analysis especially at the aggregate level. Missing can either occur in covariate or in response variable or in both in a given location. Many missing data techniques are available to estimate the missing data values but not all of these methods can be applied on spatial data since the data are autocorrelated. Hence there is a need to develop a method that estimates the missing values in both response variable and covariates in spatial data by taking account of the spatial autocorrelation. The present study aims to develop a model to estimate the missing data points at the aggregate level in spatial data by accounting for (a) Spatial autocorrelation of the response variable (b) Spatial autocorrelation of covariates and (c) Correlation between covariates and the response variable. Estimating the missing values of spatial data requires a model that explicitly account for the spatial autocorrelation. The proposed model not only accounts for spatial autocorrelation but also utilizes the correlation that exists between covariates, within covariates and between a response variable and covariates. The precise estimation of the missing data points in spatial data will result in an increased precision of the estimated effects of independent variables on the response variable in spatial regression analysis.

Keywords: spatial regression, missing data estimation, spatial autocorrelation, simulation analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Marwa A. A. Ragab, Hadir M. Maher, Eman I. El-Kimary

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Co-administration of methotrexate (MTX) and aspirin (ASP) can cause a pharmacokinetic interaction and a subsequent increase in blood MTX concentrations which may increase the risk of MTX toxicity. Therefore, it is important to develop a sensitive, selective, accurate and precise method for their simultaneous determination in urine. A new hybrid chemometric method has been applied to the emission response data of the two drugs. Spectrofluorimetric method for determination of MTX through measurement of its acid-degradation product, 4-amino-4-deoxy-10-methylpteroic acid (4-AMP), was developed. Moreover, the acid-catalyzed degradation reaction enables the spectrofluorimetric determination of ASP through the formation of its active metabolite salicylic acid (SA). The proposed chemometric method deals with convolution of emission data using 8-points sin xi polynomials (discrete Fourier functions) after the derivative treatment of these emission data. The first and second derivative curves (D1 & D2) were obtained first then convolution of these curves was done to obtain first and second derivative under Fourier functions curves (D1/FF) and (D2/FF). This new application was used for the resolution of the overlapped emission bands of the degradation products of both drugs to allow their simultaneous indirect determination in human urine. Not only this chemometric approach was applied to the emission data but also the obtained data were subjected to non-parametric linear regression analysis (Theil’s method). The proposed method was fully validated according to the ICH guidelines and it yielded linearity ranges as follows: 0.05-0.75 and 0.5-2.5 µg mL-1 for MTX and ASP respectively. It was found that the non-parametric method was superior over the parametric one in the simultaneous determination of MTX and ASP after the chemometric treatment of the emission spectra of their degradation products. The work combines the advantages of derivative and convolution using discrete Fourier function together with the reliability and efficacy of the non-parametric analysis of data. The achieved sensitivity along with the low values of LOD (0.01 and 0.06 µg mL-1) and LOQ (0.04 and 0.2 µg mL-1) for MTX and ASP respectively, by the second derivative under Fourier functions (D2/FF) were promising and guarantee its application for monitoring the two drugs in patients’ urine samples.

Keywords: chemometrics, emission curves, derivative, convolution, Fourier transform, human urine, non-parametric regression, Theil’s method

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Authors: Maoxin Ye

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This study examines the relationship between social network sites (SNS) usage and social capital. Because SNS usage can expand the users’ networks, and people who are connected in this networks may become resources to SNS users and lead them to advantage in some situation, it is important to estimate the relationship between SNS usage and ‘who’ is connected or what resources the SNS users can get. Additionally, ‘who’ can be divided in two aspects – people who possess high position and people who are different, hence, it is important to estimate the relationship between SNS usage and high position people and different people. This study adapts Lin’s definition of social capital and the measurement of position generator which tells us who was connected, and can be divided into the same two aspects as well. A national data of America (N = 2,255) collected by Pew Research Center is utilized to do a general regression analysis about SNS usage and social capital. The results indicate that SNS usage is negatively associated with each factor of social capital, and it suggests that, in fact, comparing with non-users, although SNS users can get more connections, the variety and resources of these connections are fewer. For this reason, we could lose benefits through SNS usage.

Keywords: social network sites, social capital, position generator, general regression

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Authors: Reza Zarei

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The result of the present study is to determine the relation between spiritual intelligence and organizational health and job satisfaction among the female staff in Islamic Azad University of Marvdasht. The population of the study includes the female staff and the faculty of Islamic Azad University of Marvdasht. The method is correlational and the instrument in the research is three questionnaires namely the spiritual intelligence by (ISIS), Amraam and Dryer, organizational health by Fieldman and Job satisfaction questionnaire. In order to test the hypotheses we used interpretive statistics, Pearson and regression correlation coefficient. The findings show that there is a significant relation between the spiritual intelligence and organizational health among the female staff of this unit. In addition, the organizational health has a significant relation with the elements of self-consciousness and social skills and on the other hand, job satisfaction is in significant relation with the elements of self-consciousness, self-control, self-provocation, sympathy and social skills in the whole sample regardless of the participants' gender. Finally, the results of multiple regression and variance analysis showed that using the variables of the spiritual intelligence of the female staff could predict the organizational health and their job satisfaction.

Keywords: job satisfaction, spiritual intelligence, organizational health, Islamic Azad University

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Authors: Junaid Mahmood Alam

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Revalidating and harmonizing clinical chemistry analytical principles and optimizing methods through quality control programs and assessments is the preeminent means to attain optimal outcome within the clinical laboratory services. Present study reports revalidation of our existing IFCC regularized analytical methods, particularly hepatic and thyroid function tests, by optimization of precision analyses and processing through external and internal quality assessments and regression determination. Parametric components of hepatic (Bilirubin ALT, γGT, ALP), cardiac (LDH, AST, Trop I) and thyroid/pituitary (T3, T4, TSH, FT3, FT4) function tests were used to validate analytical techniques on automated chemistry and immunological analyzers namely Hitachi 912, Cobas 6000 e601, Cobas c501, Cobas e411 with UV kinetic, colorimetric dry chemistry principles and Electro-Chemiluminescence immunoassay (ECLi) techniques. Process of validation and revalidation was completed with evaluating and assessing the precision analyzed Preci-control data of various instruments plotting against each other with regression analyses R2. Results showed that: Revalidation and optimization of respective parameters that were accredited through CAP, CLSI and NEQAPP assessments depicted 99.0% to 99.8% optimization, in addition to the methodology and instruments used for analyses. Regression R2 analysis of BilT was 0.996, whereas that of ALT, ALP, γGT, LDH, AST, Trop I, T3, T4, TSH, FT3, and FT4 exhibited R2 0.998, 0.997, 0.993, 0.967, 0.970, 0.980, 0.976, 0.996, 0.997, 0.997, and R2 0.990, respectively. This confirmed marked harmonization of analytical methods and instrumentations thus revalidating optimized precision standardization as per IFCC recommended guidelines. It is concluded that practices of revalidating and harmonizing the existing or any new services should be followed by all clinical laboratories, especially those associated with tertiary care hospital. This is will ensure deliverance of standardized, proficiency tested, optimized services for prompt and better patient care that will guarantee maximum patients’ confidence.

Keywords: revalidation, standardized, IFCC, CAP, harmonized

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Authors: Katarzyna Wyka, Dana Sylvan, JoAnn Difede

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Background and significance: The following disaster, population-based screening programs are routinely established to assess physical and psychological consequences of exposure. These data sets are highly skewed as only a small percentage of trauma-exposed individuals develop health issues. Commonly used statistical methodology in post-disaster mental health generally involves population-averaged models. Such models aim to capture the overall response to the disaster and its aftermath; however, they may not be sensitive enough to accommodate population heterogeneity in symptomatology, such as post-traumatic stress or depressive symptoms. Methods: We use an archival longitudinal data set from Weill-Cornell 9/11 Mental Health Screening Program established following the World Trade Center (WTC) terrorist attacks in New York in 2001. Participants are rescue and recovery workers who participated in the site cleanup and restoration (n=2960). The main outcome is the post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSD) severity score assessed via clinician interviews (CAPS). For a detailed understanding of response to the disaster and its aftermath, we are adapting quantile regression methodology with particular focus on predictors of extreme distress and resilience to trauma. Results: The response variable was defined as the quantile of the CAPS score for each individual under two different scenarios specifying the unconditional quantiles based on: 1) clinically meaningful CAPS cutoff values and 2) CAPS distribution in the population. We present graphical summaries of the differential effects. For instance, we found that the effect of the WTC exposures, namely seeing bodies and feeling that life was in danger during rescue/recovery work was associated with very high PTSD symptoms. A similar effect was apparent in individuals with prior psychiatric history. Differential effects were also present for age and education level of the individuals. Conclusion: We evaluate the utility of quantile regression in disaster research in contrast to the commonly used population-averaged models. We focused on assessing the distribution of risk factors for post-traumatic stress symptoms across quantiles. This innovative approach provides a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between dependent and independent variables and could be used for developing tailored training programs and response plans for different vulnerability groups.

Keywords: disaster workers, post traumatic stress, PTSD, quantile regression

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Authors: Hadi Rouhi Belvirdi, Davoud Beheshtizadeh

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The increasing demand for sustainable construction materials has led to a growing interest in high-strength recycled concrete (HSRC). Utilizing recycled materials not only reduces waste but also minimizes the depletion of natural resources. This study explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to model and predict the properties of HSRC. In the past two decades, the production levels in various industries and, consequently, the amount of waste have increased significantly. Continuing this trend will undoubtedly cause irreparable damage to the environment. For this reason, engineers have been constantly seeking practical solutions for recycling industrial waste in recent years. This research utilized the results of the compressive strength of 90-day high-strength recycled concrete. The method for creating recycled concrete involved replacing sand with crushed glass and using glass powder instead of cement. Subsequently, a feedforward artificial neural network was employed to model the compressive strength results for 90 days. The regression and error values obtained indicate that this network is suitable for modeling the compressive strength data.

Keywords: high-strength recycled concrete, feedforward artificial neural network, regression, construction materials

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Authors: Mensah-Akoto Julius, Kenichi Matsui

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This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on waste management workers in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 60 waste management workers in Accra metropolis, the capital region of Ghana, to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on waste generation, workers’ safety in collecting solid waste, and service delivery. To find out correlations between the pandemic and safety of waste management workers, a regression analysis was used. Regarding waste generation, the results show the pandemic led to the highest annual per capita solid waste generation, or 3,390 tons, in 2020. Regarding the safety of workers, the regression analysis shows a significant and inverse association between COVID-19 and waste management services. This means that contaminated wastes may infect field workers with COVID-19 due to their direct exposure. A rise in new infection cases would have a negative impact on the safety and service delivery of the workers. The result also shows that an increase in economic activities negatively impacts waste management workers. The analysis, however, finds no statistical relationship between workers’ service deliveries and employees’ salaries. The study then discusses how municipal waste management authorities can ensure safe and effective waste collection during the pandemic.

Keywords: Covid-19, waste management worker, waste collection, Ghana

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Authors: Xuan Hua Huang, Shu Fen Wu, Yi Ting Huang, Pi Yueh Lee

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Background: In Taiwan, the Taiwan healthcare care Indicator Series regards the rate of hospital readmission as an important indicator of healthcare quality. Unplanned readmission not only effects patient’s condition but also increase healthcare utilization rate and healthcare costs. Purpose: The purpose of this study was explored the effects of adult unplanned readmission within 14 days of discharge at a regional teaching hospital in South Taiwan. Methods: The retrospectively review design was used. A total 495 participants of unplanned readmissions and 878 of non-readmissions within 14 days recruited from a regional teaching hospital in Southern Taiwan. The instruments used included the Charlson Comorbidity Index, and demographic characteristics, and disease-related variables. Statistical analyses were performed with SPSS version 22.0. The descriptive statistics were used (means, standard deviations, and percentage) and the inferential statistics were used T-test, Chi-square test and Logistic regression. Results: The unplanned readmissions within 14 days rate was 36%. The majorities were 268 males (54.1%), aged >65 were 318 (64.2%), and mean age was 68.8±14.65 years (23-98years). The mean score for the comorbidities was 3.77±2.73. The top three diagnosed of the readmission were digestive diseases (32.7%), respiratory diseases (15.2%), and genitourinary diseases (10.5%). There were significant relationships among the gender, age, marriage, comorbidity status, and discharge planning services (χ2: 3.816-16.474, p: 0.051~0.000). Logistic regression analysis showed that old age (OR = 1.012, 95% CI: 1.003, 1.021), had the multi-morbidity (OR = 0.712~4.040, 95% CI: 0.559~8.522), had been consult with discharge planning services (OR = 1.696, 95% CI: 1.105, 2.061) have a higher risk of readmission. Conclusions: This study finds that multi-morbidity was independent risk factor for unplanned readmissions at 14 days, recommended that the interventional treatment of the medical team be provided to provide integrated care for multi-morbidity to improve the patient's self-care ability and reduce the 14-day unplanned readmission rate.

Keywords: unplanned readmission, comorbidities, Charlson comorbidity index, logistic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Hui-Yen Lee, Hsiu-Yun Wei, Guey-Jen Lin, Pi-Yueh Lee Lee

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Background: Unplanned hospital readmissions increase healthcare costs and have been considered a marker of poor healthcare performance. The elderly face a higher risk of unplanned readmission due to elderly-specific characteristics such as deteriorating body functions and the relatively high incidence of complications after treatment of acute diseases. Purpose: The aim of this study was exploring the factors that relate to the unplanned readmission of elderly within 14 days of discharge at our hospital in southern Taiwan. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients aged ≥65 years who had been re-admitted between January 2018 and December 2018.The Charlson Comorbidity score was calculated using previous used method. Related factors that affected the rate of unplanned readmission within 14 days of discharge were screened and analyzed using the chi-squared test and logistic regression analysis. Results: This study enrolled 829 subjects aged more than 65 years. The numbers of unplanned readmission patients within 14 days were 318 cases, while those did not belong to the unplanned readmission were 511 cases. In 2018, the rate of elderly patients in unplanned 14 days readmissions was 38.4%. The majority patients were females (166 cases, 52.2%), with an average age of 77.6 ± 7.90 years (65-98). The average value of Charlson Comorbidity score was 4.42±2.76. Using logistic regression analysis, we found that the gastric or peptic ulcer (OR=1.917 , P< 0.002), diabetes (OR= 0.722, P< 0.043), hemiplegia (OR= 2.292, P< 0.015), metastatic solid tumor (OR= 2.204, P< 0.025), hypertension (OR= 0.696, P< 0.044), and skin ulcer/cellulitis (OR= 2.747, P< 0.022) have significantly higher risk of 14-day readmissions. Conclusion: The results of the present study may assist the healthcare teams to understand the factors that may affect unplanned readmission in the elderly. We recommend that these teams give efficient approach in their medical practice, provide timely health education for elderly, and integrative healthcare for chronic diseases in order to reduce unplanned readmissions.

Keywords: unplanning readmission, elderly, Charlson comorbidity score, logistic regression analysis

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Authors: Irena Baranowska-Bosiacka, Mateusz Bosiacki, Patrycja Kupnicka, Anna Lubkowska, Dariusz Chlubek

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Physical activity and a balanced diet are among the key factors of "healthy ageing". Physical effort, including swimming in cold water (including bathing in natural water reservoirs), is widely recognized as a hardening factor, with a positive effect on the mental and physical health. At the same time, there is little scientific evidence to verify this hypothesis. In the literature to date, it is possible to obtain data on the impact of these factors on selected physiological and biochemical parameters of the blood, at the same time there are no results of research on the effect of immersing in cold water on mineral metabolism, especially bones, hence it seems important to perform such an analysis in relation to the key elements such as calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and phosphorus (P). Taking the above into account, a hypothesis was put forward about the possibility of a positive effect of exercise in cold water on mineral metabolism and bone density in aging rats. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effect of an 8-week swimming training on mineral metabolism and bone density in aging rats in response to exercise in cold water (5oC) in comparison to swimming in thermal comfort (36oC) and sedentary (control) rats of both sexes. The examination of the concentration of the examined elements in the bones was carried out using inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). The mineral density of the femurs of the rats was measured using the Hologic Horizon DEXA System® densitometer. The results of our study showed that swimming in cold water affects bone mineral metabolism in aging rats by changing the Ca, Mg, P concentration and at the same time increasing their bone density. In males, a decrease in Mg concentration and no changes in bone density were observed. In the light of the research results, it seems that swimming in cold water may be a factor that positively modifies the bone aging process by improving the mechanisms affecting their density.

Keywords: swimming in cold water, adaptation to cold water, bone mineral metabolism, aging

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Authors: Jung-Hun Cho, Tae-Heon Moon, Jin-Hak Lee

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Land price contains the comprehensive characteristics of urban space, representing the social and economic features of the city. Accordingly, land price can be utilized as an indicator, which can identify the changes of spatial structure and socioeconomic variations caused by urban development. This study attempted to explore the changes in land price by a new road construction. Methodologically, it adopted Space Syntax, which can interpret urban spatial structure comprehensively, to identify the relationship between the forms of road networks and land price. The result of the regression analysis showed the ‘integration index’ of Space Syntax is statistically significant and has a strong correlation with land price. If the integration value is high, land price increases proportionally. Subsequently, using regression equation, it tried to predict the land price changes of each of the lots surrounding the roads that are newly opened. The research methods or study results have the advantage of predicting the changes in land price in an easy way. In addition, it will contribute to planners and project managers to establish relevant polices and smoothing urban regeneration projects through enhancing residents’ understanding by providing possible results and advantages in their land price before the execution of urban regeneration and development projects.

Keywords: space syntax, urban regeneration, spatial structure, official land price

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Authors: Fatemeh Roostaee, Zahra Nikmanesh

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This study was done to investigate the role of religious coping components on occupational stress and the quality of working life of midwives. The method of study was descriptive-correlation. The sample was comprised of all midwives in maternity hospitals in Zahedan during 1393. Participants were selected through applying census method. The instruments of data collection were three questionnaires: the quality of working life, occupational stress, and religious opposition. For statistical analysis, Pearson correlation and step by step regression analysis methods were used. The results showed that there is a significant negative relationship between the component of religious activities (r=-0/454) and occupational stress, and regression analysis was also shown that the variable of religious activities has been explained 45% of occupational stress variable changes. The Pearson correlation test showed that there isn't any significant relationship between religious opposition components and the quality of life. Therefore, it is necessary to present essential trainings on (the field of) strengthening compatibility strategies and religious activities to reduce occupational stress.

Keywords: the quality of working life, occupational stress, religious, midwife

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Authors: Muhamad Hafiz Ismail, Ahmad H., Nelfianty M. R.

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The longitudinal study is conducted to identify predictive factors of soccer talent among male players aged 14 to 17 years. Convenience sampling involving elite respondents (n=20) and sub-elite respondents (n=20) male soccer players. Descriptive statistics were reported as frequencies and percentages. The inferential statistical analysis is used to report the status of reliability, independent samples t-test, paired samples t-test, and multiple regression analysis. Generally, there are differences in mean of height, muscular strength, muscular endurance, cardiovascular endurance, task orientation, cognitive anxiety, self-confidence, juggling skills, short pass skills, long pass skills, dribbling skills, and shooting skills for 20 elite players and sub-elite players. Accordingly, there was a significant difference between pre and post-test for thirteen variables of height, weight, fat percentage, muscle strength, muscle endurance, cardiovascular endurance, flexibility, BMI, task orientation, juggling skills, short pass skills, a long pass skills, and dribbling skills. Based on the first predictive factors (physical), second predictive factors (fitness), third predictive factors (psychological), and fourth predictive factors (skills in playing football) pledged to the soccer talent; four multiple regression models were produced. The first predictive factor (physical) contributed 53.5 percent, supported by height and percentage of fat in soccer talents. The second predictive factor (fitness) contributed 63.2 percent and the third predictive factors (psychology) contributed 66.4 percent of soccer talent. The fourth predictive factors (skills) contributed 59.0 percent of soccer talent. The four multiple regression models could be used as a guide for talent scouting for soccer players of the future.

Keywords: soccer talent identification, fitness and physical test, soccer skills test, psychological test

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Authors: Haiyan Wu, Ying Liu, Shaoyun Shi

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Authorship attribution is to extract features to identify authors of anonymous documents. Many previous works on authorship attribution focus on statistical style features (e.g., sentence/word length), content features (e.g., frequent words, n-grams). Modeling these features by regression or some transparent machine learning methods gives a portrait of the authors' writing style. But these methods do not capture the syntactic (e.g., dependency relationship) or semantic (e.g., topics) information. In recent years, some researchers model syntactic trees or latent semantic information by neural networks. However, few works take them together. Besides, predictions by neural networks are difficult to explain, which is vital in authorship attribution tasks. In this paper, we not only utilize the statistical style and content features but also take advantage of both syntactic and semantic features. Different from an end-to-end neural model, feature selection and prediction are two steps in our method. An attentive n-gram network is utilized to select useful features, and logistic regression is applied to give prediction and understandable representation of writing style. Experiments show that our extracted features can improve the state-of-the-art methods on three benchmark datasets.

Keywords: authorship attribution, attention mechanism, syntactic feature, feature extraction

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Authors: Zhi Hao Chow, Cian Mulligan, Jack Walsh, Antonio Garzon Vico, Dimitar Krastev

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Drug development is resource-intensive, time-consuming, and increasingly expensive with each developmental stage. The success rates of drug development are also relatively low, and the resources committed are wasted with each failed candidate. As such, a reliable method of predicting the success of drug development is in demand. The hypothesis was that some examples of failed drug candidates are pushed through developmental pipelines based on false confidence and may possess common linguistic features identifiable through sentiment analysis. Here, the concept of using text analysis to discover such features in research publications and investor reports as predictors of success was explored. R studios were used to perform text mining and lexicon-based sentiment analysis to identify affective phrases and determine their frequency in each document, then using SPSS to determine the relationship between our defined variables and the accuracy of predicting outcomes. A total of 161 publications were collected and categorised into 4 groups: (i) Cancer treatment, (ii) Neurodegenerative disease treatment, (iii) Vaccines, and (iv) Others (containing all other drugs that do not fit into the 3 categories). Text analysis was then performed on each document using 2 separate datasets (BING and AFINN) in R within the category of drugs to determine the frequency of positive or negative phrases in each document. A relative positivity and negativity value were then calculated by dividing the frequency of phrases with the word count of each document. Regression analysis was then performed with SPSS statistical software on each dataset (values from using BING or AFINN dataset during text analysis) using a random selection of 61 documents to construct a model. The remaining documents were then used to determine the predictive power of the models. Model constructed from BING predicts the outcome of drug performance in clinical trials with an overall percentage of 65.3%. AFINN model had a lower accuracy at predicting outcomes compared to the BING model at 62.5% but was not effective at predicting the failure of drugs in clinical trials. Overall, the study did not show significant efficacy of the model at predicting outcomes of drugs in development. Many improvements may need to be made to later iterations of the model to sufficiently increase the accuracy.

Keywords: data analysis, drug development, sentiment analysis, text-mining

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Authors: Stefanie M. Vanneste, Stijn Goeminne

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This paper studies the effect of political characteristics of 308 Flemish municipalities on their budget balance in the period 1995-2011. All local governments experience the same economic and financial setting, however some governments have high budget balances, while others have low budget balances. The aim of this paper is to explain the differences in municipal budget balances by a number of economic, socio-demographic and political variables. The economic and socio-demographic variables will be used as control variables, while the focus of this paper will be on the political variables. We test four hypotheses resulting from the literature, namely (i) the partisan hypothesis tests if left wing governments have lower budget balances, (ii) the fragmentation hypothesis stating that more fragmented governments have lower budget balances, (iii) the hypothesis regarding the power of the government, higher powered governments would resolve in higher budget balances, and (iv) the opportunistic budget cycle to test whether politicians manipulate the economic situation before elections in order to maximize their reelection possibilities and therefore have lower budget balances before elections. The contributions of our paper to the existing literature are multiple. First, we use the whole array of political variables and not just a selection of them. Second, we are dealing with a homogeneous database with the same budget and election rules, making it easier to focus on the political factors without having to control for the impact of differences in the political systems. Third, our research extends the existing literature on Flemish municipalities as this is the first dynamic research on local budget balances. We use a dynamic panel data model. Because of the two lagged dependent variables as explanatory variables, we employ the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimator. This is the best possible estimator as we are dealing with political panel data that is rather persistent. Our empirical results show that the effect of the ideological position and the power of the coalition are of less importance to explain the budget balance. The political fragmentation of the government on the other hand has a negative and significant effect on the budget balance. The more parties in a coalition the worse the budget balance is ceteris paribus. Our results also provide evidence of an opportunistic budget cycle, the budget balances are lower in pre-election years relative to the other years to try and increase the incumbents reelection possibilities. An additional finding is that the incremental effect of the budget balance is very important and should not be ignored like is being done in a lot of empirical research. The coefficients of the lagged dependent variables are always positive and very significant. This proves that the budget balance is subject to incrementalism. It is not possible to change the entire policy from one year to another so the actions taken in recent past years still have an impact on the current budget balance. Only a relatively small amount of research concerning the budget balance takes this considerable incremental effect into account. Our findings survive several robustness checks.

Keywords: budget balance, fragmentation, ideology, incrementalism, municipalities, opportunistic budget cycle, panel data, political characteristics, power, system GMM

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Authors: Prateep Wajeetongratana

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The purpose of this research was to study the influence of accountants’ potential performance on their working process, a case study of Government Savings Banks in the northeast of Thailand. The independent variables included accounting knowledge, accounting skill, accounting value, accounting ethics, and accounting attitude, while the dependent variable included the success of the working process. A total of 155 accountants working for Government Savings Banks were selected by random sampling. A questionnaire was used as a tool for collecting data. Descriptive statistics in this research included percentage, mean, and multiple regression analyses. The findings revealed that the majority of accountants were female with an age between 35-40 years old. Most of the respondents had an undergraduate degree with ten years of experience. Moreover, the factors of accounting knowledge, accounting skill, accounting a value and accounting ethics and accounting attitude were rated at a high level. The findings from regression analysis of observation data revealed a causal relationship in that the observation data could explain at least 51 percent of the success in the accountants’ working process.

Keywords: influence, potential performance, success, working process

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Authors: Triveni Gogoi, Rima Chatterjee

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Shear wave velocity (Vs) estimation is an important approach in the seismic exploration and characterization of a hydrocarbon reservoir. There are varying methods for prediction of S-wave velocity, if recorded S-wave log is not available. But all the available methods for Vs prediction are empirical mathematical models. Shear wave velocity can be estimated using P-wave velocity by applying Castagna’s equation, which is the most common approach. The constants used in Castagna’s equation vary for different lithologies and geological set-ups. In this study, multiple regression analysis has been used for estimation of S-wave velocity. The EMERGE module from Hampson-Russel software has been used here for generation of S-wave log. Both single attribute and multi attributes analysis have been carried out for generation of synthetic S-wave log in Upper Assam basin. Upper Assam basin situated in North Eastern India is one of the most important petroleum provinces of India. The present study was carried out using four wells of the study area. Out of these wells, S-wave velocity was available for three wells. The main objective of the present study is a prediction of shear wave velocities for wells where S-wave velocity information is not available. The three wells having S-wave velocity were first used to test the reliability of the method and the generated S-wave log was compared with actual S-wave log. Single attribute analysis has been carried out for these three wells within the depth range 1700-2100m, which corresponds to Barail group of Oligocene age. The Barail Group is the main target zone in this study, which is the primary producing reservoir of the basin. A system generated list of attributes with varying degrees of correlation appeared and the attribute with the highest correlation was concerned for the single attribute analysis. Crossplot between the attributes shows the variation of points from line of best fit. The final result of the analysis was compared with the available S-wave log, which shows a good visual fit with a correlation of 72%. Next multi-attribute analysis has been carried out for the same data using all the wells within the same analysis window. A high correlation of 85% has been observed between the output log from the analysis and the recorded S-wave. The almost perfect fit between the synthetic S-wave and the recorded S-wave log validates the reliability of the method. For further authentication, the generated S-wave data from the wells have been tied to the seismic and correlated them. Synthetic share wave log has been generated for the well M2 where S-wave is not available and it shows a good correlation with the seismic. Neutron porosity, density, AI and P-wave velocity are proved to be the most significant variables in this statistical method for S-wave generation. Multilinear regression method thus can be considered as a reliable technique for generation of shear wave velocity log in this study.

Keywords: Castagna's equation, multi linear regression, multi attribute analysis, shear wave logs

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Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

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In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

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Authors: Haoming Ma, Guo Yu, Peiru Zhou

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Background: Previous studies show that dysglycemia, mostly hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia and glycemic variability(GV), are associated with excess mortality in critically ill patients, especially those without diabetes. Glycemic variability is an increasingly important measure of glucose control in the intensive care unit (ICU) due to this association. However, there is limited data pertaining to the relationship between different clinical factors and glycemic variability and clinical outcomes categorized by their DM status. This retrospective study of 958 intensive care unit(ICU) patients was conducted to investigate the relationship between GV and outcome in critically ill patients and further to determine the significant factors that contribute to the glycemic variability. Aim: We hypothesize that the factors contributing to mortality and the glycemic variability are different from critically ill patients with or without diabetes. And the primary aim of this study was to determine which dysglycemia (hyperglycemia\hypoglycemia\glycemic variability) is independently associated with an increase in mortality among critically ill patients in different groups (DM/Non-DM). Secondary objectives were to further investigate any factors affecting the glycemic variability in two groups. Method: A total of 958 diabetic and non-diabetic patients with severe diseases in the ICU were selected for this retrospective analysis. The glycemic variability was defined as the coefficient of variation (CV) of blood glucose. The main outcome was death during hospitalization. The secondary outcome was GV. The logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with mortality. The relationships between GV and other variables were investigated using linear regression analysis. Results: Information on age, APACHE II score, GV, gender, in-ICU treatment and nutrition was available for 958 subjects. Predictors remaining in the final logistic regression model for mortality were significantly different in DM/Non-DM groups. Glycemic variability was associated with an increase in mortality in both DM(odds ratio 1.05; 95%CI:1.03-1.08,p＜0.001) or Non-DM group(odds ratio 1.07; 95%CI:1.03-1.11,p=0.002). For critically ill patients without diabetes, factors associated with glycemic variability included APACHE II score(regression coefficient, 95%CI:0.29,0.22-0.36,p＜0.001), Mean BG(0.73,0.46-1.01,p＜0.001), total parenteral nutrition(2.87,1.57-4.17,p＜0.001), serum albumin(-0.18,-0.271 to -0.082,p＜0.001), insulin treatment(2.18,0.81-3.55,p=0.002) and duration of ventilation(0.006,0.002-1.010,p=0.003).However, for diabetes patients, APACHE II score(0.203,0.096-0.310,p＜0.001), mean BG(0.503,0.138-0.869,p=0.007) and duration of diabetes(0.167,0.033-0.301,p=0.015) remained as independent risk factors of GV. Conclusion: We found that the relation between dysglycemia and mortality is different in the diabetes and non-diabetes groups. And we confirm that GV was associated with excess mortality in DM or Non-DM patients. Furthermore, APACHE II score, Mean BG, total parenteral nutrition, serum albumin, insulin treatment and duration of ventilation were significantly associated with an increase in GV in Non-DM patients. While APACHE II score, mean BG and duration of diabetes (years) remained as independent risk factors of increased GV in DM patients. These findings provide important context for further prospective trials investigating the effect of different clinical factors in critically ill patients with or without diabetes.

Keywords: diabetes, glycemic variability, predictors, severe disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Tomas Berhanu Bekele

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Traffic congestion is one of the main problems related to transportation in developed as well as developing countries. Traffic control systems are based on the idea of avoiding traffic instabilities and homogenizing traffic flow in such a way that the risk of accidents is minimized and traffic flow is maximized. Lately, Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) has become an important area of research to solve such road traffic-related issues for making smart decisions. It links people, roads and vehicles together using communication technologies to increase safety and mobility. Moreover, accurate prediction of road traffic is important to manage traffic congestion. The aim of this study is to develop an ANN model for the prediction of traffic flow and to compare the ANN model with the linear regression model of traffic flow predictions. Data extraction was carried out in intervals of 15 minutes from the video player. Video of mixed traffic flow was taken and then counted during office work in order to determine the traffic volume. Vehicles were classified into six categories, namely Car, Motorcycle, Minibus, mid-bus, Bus, and Truck vehicles. The average time taken by each vehicle type to travel the trap length was measured by time displayed on a video screen.

Keywords: intelligent transport system (ITS), traffic flow prediction, artificial neural network (ANN), linear regression

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Authors: Janmejoy Gupta, Arnab Paul, Manjari Chakraborty

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Jharkhand is a state located in the eastern part of India. The Tropic of Cancer (23.5 degree North latitude line) passes through Ranchi district in Jharkhand. Mud huts with burnt clay tiled roofs in Jharkhand are an integral component of the state’s vernacular architecture. They come in various shapes, with a number of them having a courtyard type of plan. In general, it has been stated that designing dwellings with courtyards in them is a climate-responsive strategy in composite climate. The truth behind this hypothesis is investigated in this paper. In this paper, three types of mud huts with courtyards situated in Ranchi district in Jharkhand are taken as a study and through temperature measurements in the south-side rooms and courtyards, in addition to Autodesk Ecotect (Version 2011) software simulations, their thermal performance throughout the year are observed. Temperature measurements are specifically taken during the peak of summer and winter and the average temperatures in the rooms and courtyards during seven day-periods in peak of summer and peak of winter are plotted graphically. Thereafter, on the basis of the study and software simulations, the hypothesis is verified and the thermally better performing dwelling types in summer and winter identified among the three sub-types studied. Certain recommendations with respect to increasing thermal comfort in courtyard type mud huts in general are also made. It is found that all courtyard type dwellings do not necessarily show better thermal performance in summer and winter in composite climate. The U shaped dwelling with open courtyard on southern side offers maximum amount of thermal-comfort inside the rooms in the hotter part of the year and the square hut with a central courtyard, with the courtyard being closed from all sides, shows superior thermal performance in winter. The courtyards in all the three case-studies are found to get excessively heated up during summer.

Keywords: courtyard, mud huts, simulations, temperature measurements, thermal performance

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Authors: Angga S. Fajar, Y. Takahashi, J. Kiyono, S. Sawada

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The structural system concept of RC pier accompanied with multi sliding friction damping mechanism was developed based on numerical analysis approach. However in the implementation, to make design for such kind of this structural system consumes a lot of effort in case high of complexity. During making design, the special behaviors of this structural system should be considered including flexible small deformation, sufficient elastic deformation capacity, sufficient lateral force resistance, and sufficient energy dissipation. The confinement distribution of friction devices has significant influence to its. Optimization and prediction with multi function regression of this structural system expected capable of providing easier and simpler design method. The confinement distribution of friction devices is optimized with SNOPT in Opensees, while some design variables of the structure are predicted using multi function regression of ANN. Based on the optimization and prediction this structural system is able to be designed easily and simply.

Keywords: RC Pier, multi sliding friction device, optimal design, flexible small deformation

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: Timine Suoware, Sylvester Edelugo, Charles Amgbari

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Natural fibre composites (NFC) are becoming very attractive especially for automotive interior and non-structural building applications because they are biodegradable, low cost, lightweight and environmentally friendly. NFC are known to release high combustible products during exposure to heat atmosphere and this behaviour has raised concerns to end users. To improve on their fire response, flame retardants (FR) such as aluminium tri-hydroxide (ATH) and ammonium polyphosphate (APP) are incorporated during processing to delay the start and spread of fire. In this paper, APP was modified with Gum Arabic powder (GAP) and synergized with carbon black (CB) to form new FR species. Four FR species at 0, 12, 15 and 18% loading ratio were added to oil palm fibre polyester composite (OPFC) panels as follows; OPFC12%APP-GAP, OPFC15%APP-GAP/CB, OPFC18%ATH/APP-GAP and OPFC18%ATH/APPGAP/CB. The panels were produced using hand lay-up compression moulding and cured at room temperature. Specimens were cut from the panels and these were tested for ignition time (Tig), peak heat released rate (HRRp), average heat release rate (HRRavg), peak mass loss rate (MLRp), residual mass (Rm) and average smoke production rate (SPRavg) using cone calorimeter apparatus as well as the available flame energy (ɸ) in driving the flame using radiant panel flame spread apparatus. From the ignitability data obtained at 50 kW/m2 heat flux (HF), it shows that the hybrid FR modified with APP that is OPFC18%ATH/APP-GAP exhibited superior flame retardancy and the improvement was based on comparison with those without FR which stood at Tig = 20 s, HRRp = 86.6 kW/m2, HRRavg = 55.8 kW/m2, MLRp =0.131 g/s, Rm = 54.6% and SPRavg = 0.05 m2/s representing respectively 17.6%, 67.4%, 62.8%, 50.9%, 565% and 62.5% improvements less than those without FR (OPFC0%). In terms of flame spread, the least flame energy (ɸ) of 0.49 kW2/s3 for OPFC18%ATH/APP-GAP caused early flame regression. This was less than 39.6 kW2/s3 compared to those without FR (OPFC0%). It can be concluded that hybrid FR modified with APP could be useful in the automotive and building industries to delay the start and spread of fire.

Keywords: flame retardant, flame regression, oil palm fibre, composite panel

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Laura A. Rodriguez-Villamizar, Alvaro Osornio-Vargas, Brian H. Rowe, Rhonda J. Rosychuk

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Introduction/Objectives: The Census Metropolitan Area of Edmonton (CMAE) has important industrial emissions to the air from the Industrial Heartland Alberta (IHA) at the Northeast and the coal-fired power plants (CFPP) at the West. The objective of the study was to explore the presence of clusters of children asthma ED visits in the areas around the IHA and the CFPP. Methods: Retrospective data on children asthma ED visits was collected at the dissemination area (DA) level for children between 2 and 14 years of age, living in the CMAE between April 1, 2004, and March 31, 2010. We conducted a spatial analysis of disease clusters around putative sources with count (ecological) data using descriptive, hypothesis testing, and multivariable modeling analysis. Results: The mean crude rate of asthma ED visits was 9.3/1,000 children population per year during the study period. Circular spatial scan test for cases and events identified a cluster of children asthma ED visits in the DA where the CFPP are located in the Wabamum area. No clusters were identified around the IHA area. The multivariable models suggest that there is a significant decline in risk for children asthma ED visits as distance increases around the CFPP area this effect is modified at the SE direction with mean angle 125.58 degrees, where the risk increases with distance. In contrast, the regression models for IHA suggest that there is a significant increase in risk for children asthma ED visits as distance increases around the IHA area and this effect is modified at SW direction with mean angle 216.52 degrees, where the risk increases at shorter distances. Conclusions: Different methods for detecting clusters of disease consistently suggested the existence of a cluster of children asthma ED visits around the CFPP but not around the IHA within the CMAE. These results are probably explained by the direction of the air pollutants dispersion caused by the predominant and subdominant wind direction at each point. The use of different approaches to detect clusters of disease is valuable to have a better understanding of the presence, shape, direction and size of clusters of disease around pollution sources.

Keywords: air pollution, asthma, disease cluster, industry

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Authors: Pavel Shcherban, Vlad Golovanov

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Currently, there is an active geological exploration and development of the subsoil shelf of the Kaliningrad region. To carry out a comprehensive and accurate assessment of the volumes and degree of extraction of hydrocarbons from open deposits, it is necessary to establish not only a number of geological and lithological characteristics of the structures under study, but also to determine the oil quality, its viscosity, density, fractional composition as accurately as possible. In terms of considered works, gas chromatography is one of the most capacious methods that allow the rapid formation of a significant amount of initial data. The aspects of the application of the gas chromatography method for determining the chemical characteristics of the hydrocarbons of the Kaliningrad shelf fields are observed in the article, as well as the correlation-regression analysis of these parameters in comparison with the previously obtained chemical characteristics of hydrocarbon deposits located on the land of the region. In the process of research, a number of methods of mathematical statistics and computer processing of large data sets have been applied, which makes it possible to evaluate the identity of the deposits, to specify the amount of reserves and to make a number of assumptions about the genesis of the hydrocarbons under analysis.

Keywords: computer processing of large databases, correlation-regression analysis, hydrocarbon deposits, method of gas chromatography

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Can Liu, Graham Markowitz, John Balay, Ben Pratt

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Baseline or natural hydrology is commonly employed for hydrologic modeling and quantification of hydrologic alteration due to manmade activities. It can inform planning and policy related efforts for various state and federal water resource agencies to restore natural streamflow flow regimes. A common challenge faced by hydrologists is how to replicate unaltered streamflow conditions, particularly in large watershed settings prone to development and regulation. Three different methods were employed to estimate baseline streamflow conditions for 6 major subbasins the Susquehanna River Basin; those being: 1) incorporation of consumptive water use and reservoir operations back into regulated gaged records; 2) using a map correlation method and flow duration (exceedance probability) regression equations; 3) extending the pre-regulation streamflow records based on the relationship between concurrent streamflows at unregulated and regulated gage locations. Parallel analyses were perform among the three methods and limitations associated with each are presented. Results from these analyses indicate that generating baseline streamflow records at large-scale watersheds remain challenging, even with long-term continuous stream gage records available.

Keywords: baseline hydrology, streamflow gage, subbasin, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Tauha Hussain Ali, Shabir Hussain Khahro, Nafees Ahmed Memon

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Accurate prediction of project time for planning and bid preparation stage should contain realistic dates. Constructors use their experience to estimate the project duration for the new projects, which is based on intuitions. It has been a constant concern to both researchers and constructors to analyze the accurate prediction of project duration for bid preparation stage. In Pakistan, such study for time cost relationship has been lacked to predict duration performance for the construction projects. This study is an attempt to explore the time cost relationship that would conclude with a mathematical model to predict the time for the drainage rehabilitation projects in the province of Sindh, Pakistan. The data has been collected from National Engineering Services (NESPAK), Pakistan and regression analysis has been carried out for the analysis of results. Significant relationship has been found between time and cost of the construction projects in Sindh and the generated mathematical model can be used by the constructors to predict the project duration for the upcoming projects of same nature. This study also provides the professionals with a requisite knowledge to make decisions regarding project duration, which is significantly important to win the projects at the bid stage.

Keywords: BTC Model, project time, relationship of time cost, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 382