Search results for: match outcome forecasting

Authors: Wisam Ismail, Brendan Wooler, Penelope McManus

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Introduction: The public perception of implants has been damaged in the wake of recent negative publicity and increasingly we are finding patients wanting to avoid them. Planned lipo-modelling to enhance the volume of a Latissimus dorsi flap is a viable alternative to silicone implants and maintains a Totally Autologous Technique (TAT). Here we demonstrate that when compared to an Implant Assisted Technique (IAT), a TAT offers patients many benefits that offset the requirement of more operations initially, with reduced short and long term complications, reduced symmetrisation surgery and reduced revision rates. Methods. Data was collected prospectively over 7 years. The minimum follows up was 3 years. The technique was generally standardized in the hand of one surgeon. All flaps were extended LD flaps (ELD). Lipo-modelling was performed using standard techniques. Outcome measures were unplanned secondary procedures, complication rates, and contralateral symmetrisation surgery rates. Key Results Were: Lower complication rates in the TAT group (18.5% vs. 33.3%), despite higher radiotherapy rates (TAT=49%, IAT=36.8%), TAT was associated with lower subsequent symmetrisation rates (30.6% vs. 50.9%), IAT had a relative risk of 3.1 for subsequent unplanned procedure, Autologous patients required an average of 1.76 sessions of lipo-modelling, Conclusions: Using lipo-modelling to enable totally autologous LD reconstruction offers significant advantages over an implant assisted technique. We have shown a lower subsequent unplanned procedure rate, lower revision surgery, and less contralateral symmetrisation surgery. We anticipate that a TAT will be supported by patient satisfaction surveys and long-term patient-reported cosmetic outcome data and intended to study this.

Keywords: breast, Latissimus dorsi, lipomodelling, reconstruction

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Authors: Saba Arif, Anam Nadeem, Roman Kalvin, Tanzeel Rashid, Burhan Ali, Juntakan Taweekun

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Currently, the energy crisis is taking serious attention. Globally, industries and building are major share takers of energy. 72% of total global energy is consumed by residential houses, markets, and commercial building. Additionally, in appliances air conditioners are major consumer of electricity; about 60% energy is used for cooling purpose in houses due to HVAC units. Energy demand will aid in determining what changes will be needed whether it is the estimation of the required energy for households or instituting conservation measures. Bottom-up model is one of the most famous methods for forecasting. In current research bottom-up model of air conditioners' energy consumption in all income classes in comparison with seasonal variation and hourly consumption is calculated. By comparison of energy consumption of all income classes by usage of air conditioners, total consumption of actual demand and current availability can be seen.

Keywords: air conditioning, bottom up model, income classes, energy demand

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Authors: Mohammed M. Mahdy Tawfeek

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Objective: The aim of this work is to compare the outcome of photoactivated chromophore for keratitis-cross linking (PACK-CXL) window absorption (WA) alone with combined PACK-CXL WA and standard anti-microbial therapy (SAT) for the treatment of infectious keratitis. Patients and Methods: This is a randomized prospective comparative clinical trial. Thirty eyes with clinically suspected infectious keratitis were randomly assigned into two equal groups of 15 eyes each: Group (A) was treated by PACK-CXL WA alone and group (B) was treated by PACK-CXL WA combined with SAT. Identification of organisms was made by lab study before treatment. Corneal healing was evaluated by corneal examination and anterior segment OCT (AS-OCT). Written informed consent was obtained from all participants and the study was approved by the research ethics committee of the Faculty of Medicine, Zagazig University. The work has been carried out in accordance with The Code of Ethics of the World Medical Association (Declaration of Helsinki) for studies involving humans. Results: Complete healing and resolution (Successful treatment) were observed in 10 eyes (66.7%) of a group (A) and 14 eyes (93.3%) of group (B) and failure was observed in 5 eyes (33.3%) of a group (A) and one eye (6.67%) of group (B). They were statistically significant (P =0.042 and 0.003) in a comparison between both groups regarding success and failure of treatment, respectively. Complete corneal healing was reported in the third month postoperatively in 10 eyes (66.7%) of group (A) and 14 eyes (93.3%) of group (B). Complications were absent in 12 patients (80%) in group (A) and 14 patients (93.3%) of group (B); however, perforation and impending perforation were found in 3 patients of group (A) and only one patient of group (B). Conclusion: PACK-CXL is a promising, non-invasive treatment option for infectious keratitis, especially when performed with the window absorption (WA) technique, either alone or combined with SAT. It has a synergistic effect with a standard antimicrobial treatment that gives good outcome results in the treatment of infectious keratitis. Also, it avoids the antibiotics resistance that has become rapidly spreading worldwide.

Keywords: corneal cross linking, infectious keratitis, PACK-CXL, window absorption

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Authors: Eva Kirzner

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Based on outcome studies published over the past two decades, in 2018, the ACC/AHA published new guidelines for the management of hypercholesterolemia that incorporate the use of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scanning as a decision tool for ascertaining which patients may benefit from statin therapy. This use is based on the recognition that the absence of calcium on CAC scanning (i.e., a CAC score of zero) usually signifies the absence of significant atherosclerotic deposits in the coronary arteries. Specifically, in patients with a high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), initiation of statin therapy is generally recommended to decrease ASCVD risk. However, among patients with intermediate ASCVD risk, the need for statin therapy is less certain. However, there is a need for new outcome studies that provide evidence that the management of hypercholesterolemia based on these new ACC/AHA recommendations is safe for patients. Based on a Pub-Med and Google Scholar literature search, four relevant population-based or patient-based cohort studies that studied the relationship between CAC scanning, risk assessment or mortality, and statin therapy that were published between 2017 and 2021 were identified (see references). In each of these studies, patients were assessed for their baseline risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) using the Pooled Cohorts Equation (PCE), an ACC/AHA calculator for determining patient risk based on assessment of patient age, gender, ethnicity, and coronary artery disease risk factors. The combined findings of these four studies provided concordant evidence that a zero CAC score defines patients who remain at low clinical risk despite the non-use of statin therapy. Thus, these new studies confirm the use of CAC scanning as a safe tool for reducing the potential overuse of statin therapy among patients with zero CAC scores. Incorporating these new data suggest the following best practice: (1) ascertain ASCVD risk according to the PCE in all patients; (2) following an initial attempt trial to lower ASCVD risk with optimal diet among patients with elevated ASCVD risk, initiate statin therapy for patients who have a high ASCVD risk score; (3) if the ASCVD score is intermediate, refer patients for CAC scanning; and (4) and if the CAC score is zero among the intermediate risk ASCVD patients, statin therapy can be safely withheld despite the presence of an elevated serum cholesterol level.

Keywords: cholesterol, cardiovascular disease, statin therapy, coronary calcium

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Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

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This study proposes a regression model with flexible spreads for fuzzy input-output data to cope with the situation that the existing measures cannot reflect the actual estimation error. The main idea is that a dissemblance index (DI) is carefully identified and defined for precisely measuring the actual estimation error. Moreover, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is adopted for determining more representative numeric regression coefficients. Notably, to comprehensively compare the performance of the proposed model with other ones, three different criteria are adopted. The results from commonly used test numerical examples and an application to Taiwan's business monitoring indicator illustrate that the proposed dissemblance index method not only produces valid fuzzy regression models for fuzzy input-output data, but also has satisfactory and stable performance in terms of the total estimation error based on these three criteria.

Keywords: dissemblance index, forecasting, fuzzy sets, linear regression

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Authors: Hosuk Shin, Young-Hyun Seo, Eunhak Lee, Seung-Young Kho

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Currently, in Seoul, users have the privilege to avoid riding crowded buses with the installation of Bus Information System (BIS). BIS has three levels of on-board bus ridership level information (spacious, normal, and crowded). However, there are flaws in the system due to it being real time which could provide incomplete information to the user. For example, a bus comes to the station, and on the BIS it shows that the bus is crowded, but on the stop that the user is waiting many people get off, which would mean that this station the information should show as normal or spacious. To fix this problem, this study predicts the bus ridership level using smart card data to provide more accurate information about the passenger ridership level on the bus. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is an interconnected group of nodes, that was created based on the human brain. Forecasting has been one of the major applications of ANN due to the data-driven self-adaptive methods of the algorithm itself. According to the results, the ANN algorithm was stable and robust with somewhat small error ratio, so the results were rational and reasonable.

Keywords: smartcard data, ANN, bus, ridership

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Authors: Tesfaldet Mekonnen Estifanos, Chen Hui, Afewerki Weldezgi

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Background: Intimate partner violence (hereafter IPV) is a major global public health challenge that tortures and disables women in the place where they are ought to be most secure within their own families. The fact that the family unit is commonly viewed as a private circle, violent acts towards women remains undermined. There are limited research and knowledge about the influencing factors linked to IPV in Sierra Leone. This study, therefore, estimates the prevalence rate and the predicting factors associated with IPV. Methods: Data were taken from Sierra-Leone Demographic and Health Survey (SDHS, 2013): the first in its form to incorporate information on domestic violence. Multistage cluster sampling research design was used, and information was gathered by a standard questionnaire. A total of 5185 respondents selected were interviewed, out of whom 870 were never been in union, thus excluded. To analyze the two dependent variables: experience of IPV, ‘ever’ and 'last 12 months prior to the survey', a total of 4315 (currently or formerly married) and 4029 women (currently in union) were included respectively. These dependent variables were constructed from the three forms of violence namely physical, emotional and sexual. Data analysis was applied using SPSS version 23, comprising three-step process. First, descriptive statistics were used to show the frequency distribution of both the outcome and explanatory variables. Second, bivariate analysis adopting chi-square test was applied to assess the individual relationship between the outcome and explanatory variables. Third, multivariate logistic regression analysis was undertaken using hierarchical modeling strategy to identify the influence of the explanatory variables on the outcome variables. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were utilized to examine the association of the variables considering p-values less than 0.05 statistically significant. Results: The prevalence of lifetime IPV among ever married women was 48.4%, while 39.8% of those currently married experienced IPV in the previous year preceding the survey. Women having 1 to 4 and more than 5 number of ever born babies were almost certain to encounter lifetime IPV. However, women who own a property, and those who referenced 3-5 reasons for which wife-beating is acceptable were less probably to experience lifetime IPV. Attesting parental violence, partner’s dominant marital behavior, and women afraid of their partner were the variables related to both experience of IPV ‘ever’ and ‘the previous year prior to the survey’. Respondents who concur that wife-beating is sensible in certain situations and occupations under the professional category had diminished chances of revealing IPV in the year prior to the data collection. Conclusion: This study indicated that factors significantly correlated with IPV in Sierra-Leone are mostly linked with husband related factors specifically, marital controlling behaviors. Addressing IPV in Sierra-Leone requires joint efforts that target men raise awareness to address controlling behavior and empower security in affiliations.

Keywords: husband behavior, married women, partner violence, Sierra Leone

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Authors: Bianca W. O. Silva, Adriana C. M. Andrade, Gustavo C. M. Lucena, Virna M. S. Lima

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Introduction: Basic life support (BLS) involves the immediate recognition of cardiopulmonary arrest. Each year, 359.400 and 275.000 individuals with cardiac arrest are attended in emergency departments in USA and Europe. Brazilian data shows that 200.000 cardiac arrests occur every year, and half of them out of the hospital. Medical schools around the world teach BLS in the first years of the course, but studies show that there is a decline of the knowledge as the years go by, affecting the chain of survival. The objective was to analyze the knowledge of medical students about BLS and the retention of this learning throughout the course. Methods: This study included 150 students who were at the second and third year of a medical school in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. The instrument of data collection was a structured questionnaire composed of 20 questions based on the 2015 American Heart Association guideline. The Pearson Chi-square test was used in order to study the association between previous training, sex and semester with the degree of knowledge of the students. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to evaluate the different yields obtained between the various semesters. The number of correct answers was described by average and quartiles. Results: Regarding the degree of knowledge, 19.6% of the female students reached the optimal classification, a better outcome than the achieved by the male participants. Of those with previous training, 33.33% were classified as good and optimal, none of the students reached the optimal classification and only 2.2% of them were classified as bad (those who did not have 52.6% of correct answers). The analysis of the degree of knowledge related to each semester revealed that the 5th semester had the highest outcome: 30.5%. However, the acquaintance presented by the semesters was generally unsatisfactory, since 50% of the students, or more, demonstrated knowledge levels classified as bad or regular. When confronting the different semesters and the achieved scores, the value of p was 0.831. Conclusion: It is important to focus on the training of medical professionals that are capable of facing emergency situations, improving the systematization of care, and thereby increasing the victims' possibility of survival.

Keywords: basic life support, cardiopulmonary ressucitacion, education, medical students

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Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, M. Pieńko, A. Robak, P. Jamińska-Gadomska

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Work at height, such as construction works on scaffoldings, is associated with a considerable risk. Scaffolding workers are usually exposed to changing weather conditions what can additionally increase the risk of dangerous situations. Therefore, it is very important to foresee the risk of adverse conditions to which the worker may be exposed. The data from meteorological stations may be used to asses this risk. However, the dependency between weather conditions on a scaffolding and in the vicinity of meteorological station, should be determined. The paper presents an analysis of two selected environmental parameters which have influence on the behavior of workers – air temperature and wind speed. Measurements of these parameters were made between April and November of 2016 on ten scaffoldings located in different parts of Poland. They were compared with the results taken from the meteorological stations located closest to the studied scaffolding. The results gathered from the construction sites and meteorological stations were not the same, but statistical analyses have shown that they were correlated.

Keywords: scaffolding, health and safety at work, temperature, wind velocity

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Authors: Dila Ram Bhandari

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Throughout the 20th century, new governments were created where identities such as ethnic, religious, linguistic, caste, communal, tribal, and others played a part in the development of constitutions and the legal system of victim and criminal justice. Acute issues with extremism, poverty, environmental degradation, cybercrimes, human rights violations, crime against, and victimization of both individuals and groups have recently plagued South Asian nations. Everyday massive number of crimes are steadfast, these frequent crimes have made the lives of common citizens restless. Crimes are one of the major threats to society and also for civilization. Crime is a bone of contention that can create a societal disturbance. The old-style crime solving practices are unable to live up to the requirement of existing crime situations. Crime analysis is one of the most important activities of the majority of intelligent and law enforcement organizations all over the world. The South Asia region lacks such a regional coordination mechanism, unlike central Asia of Asia Pacific regions, to facilitate criminal intelligence sharing and operational coordination related to organized crime, including illicit drug trafficking and money laundering. There have been numerous conversations in recent years about using data mining technology to combat crime and terrorism. The Data Detective program from Sentient as a software company, uses data mining techniques to support the police (Sentient, 2017). The goals of this internship are to test out several predictive model solutions and choose the most effective and promising one. First, extensive literature reviews on data mining, crime analysis, and crime data mining were conducted. Sentient offered a 7-year archive of crime statistics that were daily aggregated to produce a univariate dataset. Moreover, a daily incidence type aggregation was performed to produce a multivariate dataset. Each solution's forecast period lasted seven days. Statistical models and neural network models were the two main groups into which the experiments were split. For the crime data, neural networks fared better than statistical models. This study gives a general review of the applied statistics and neural network models. A detailed image of each model's performance on the available data and generalizability is provided by a comparative analysis of all the models on a comparable dataset. Obviously, the studies demonstrated that, in comparison to other models, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) produced greater prediction. The crime records of 2005-2019 which was collected from Nepal Police headquarter and analysed by R programming. In conclusion, gated recurrent unit implementation could give benefit to police in predicting crime. Hence, time series analysis using GRU could be a prospective additional feature in Data Detective.

Keywords: time series analysis, forecasting, ARIMA, machine learning

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Authors: Yuanhao Gao, Ping Lin, Kees Weijer

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An optimal control system model is proposed for the cell flow in the process of chick embryo gastrulation in this paper. The target is to determine the cellular interaction forces which are hard to measure. This paper will take an approach to investigate the forces with the idea of the inverse problem. By choosing the forces as the control variable and regarding the cell flow as Stokes fluid, an objective functional will be established to match the numerical result of cell velocity with the experimental data. So that the forces could be determined by minimizing the objective functional. The Lagrange multiplier method is utilized to derive the state and adjoint equations consisting the optimal control system, which specifies the first-order necessary conditions. Finite element method is used to discretize and approximate equations. A conjugate gradient algorithm is given for solving the minimum solution of the system and determine the forces.

Keywords: optimal control model, Stokes equation, conjugate gradient method, finite element method, chick embryo gastrulation

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Authors: Danladi Ali

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This work proposed to adopt and optimize the conventional method of estimating power generated from campus solid waste (CSW) using an intelligent technique. The chemical content of the CSW was analyzed, the population responsible for the generation of the CSW, the amount of CSW generated, power to grid predicted and forecasted were obtained, and sources of supply of electricity for Adamawa State University (ADSU) were compared with the PGPs estimated from the CSW. The percentage content of the chemical elements was obtained as 56.90% carbon, 8.40% hydrogen, 27.70% oxygen, 6.00% nitrogen and 1.00% sulfur. The amount of the CSW generated and power to grid predicted and forecasted for 10 years was determined as 287.74 tons/day, 13.12MW and 12.90 MW, respectively. A model for estimating power potential from CSW for ADSU was developed, and also the work revealed that the PGPs estimated from the CSW are adequate to power the University for 24 hours on a daily basis.

Keywords: prediction, intelligent, forecasting, environment, power to grid, campus solid waste

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Authors: Aruna Ramani Grover

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In 1857 the British army in Bengal rose in mutiny. The outcome of a yearlong stifle was the abolition of the East India Company and establishment of Crown rule in 1958. Despite being a political democracy back home, with the declaration of Queen Victoria as Empress of India, the British established themselves as imperialistic successors to the Mughals in India. With the institution of the Crown role in the sub-continent, there was a serious endeavour for systematic governance. This led to infrastructure development and creation of institutions as well. The outcome was many public buildings like courts, railway- stations and headquarters, senates, post offices, banks, libraries, memorial halls, museums, memorials, theatres, government colleges, residential-schools and clock towers. These were built in the old and emerging urban settlements of the sub-continents. In the realm of architecture, like all political masters of the past, the British architects too encountered the living tradition of the sub-continent. A bewildering plethora of buildings in various climatic zones, using local materials and crafted with tools and techniques of the region by local craftsmen had to be understood and assimilated. The19th century British architects who built in India, designed institutional buildings which were functional and responded to the need of the user. In visual terms however, it was a completely different story. Using the manifest elements of the complex and layered indigenous tradition, they fashioned buildings to create an architecture of reconciliation. Treating the traditional architecture as a pattern book, finished buildings was served up to the local population coloured by their understanding of tradition. This paper will discuss a series of building some of which are the Senate House and Law courts at Madras, the Municipal Building and Gateway of India in Bombay, the Muir college in Allahabad, Mayo college Ajmer, the Mubarak Mahal in Jaipur to demonstrate how a visual language of reconciliation was created.

Keywords: infrastructure, British architects, tradition, pattern book, reconciliation

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Authors: Ren Guangchun

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The village in the city is surrounded by formal cities but retains distinct social and morphological characteristics of the countryside, and has the ability of self-growth. County is the basic unit of urban-rural integration development, and urban village is the key focus of integration. At present, the flow of urban and rural factors in Chongqing does not match the development needs of urban villages. Based on the multi-case study of Chongqing 's districts and counties, this paper studies the characteristics of its geospatial advantages, composite functions, open spatial structure, pluralistic social structure, and reciprocity. From the aspects of community governance, social relations and space construction, this paper analyzes the dilemma of lack of subjectivity and social atomization faced by the interaction between urban villages and cities, and explores the strategies of community opening and social integration in urban villages, so as to present diversified landscapes and value spaces.

Keywords: gated community, open community, city update, Urban village

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Authors: Keyvan Molanorouzi, Selina Khoo, Tony Morris

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In recent years, there has been a decline in physical activity among adults. Motivation has been shown to be a crucial factor in maintaining physical activity. The purpose of this study was to whether PA motives measured by the Physical Activity and Leisure Motivation Scale PALMS predicted actual amount of PA at a later time to provide evidence for the construct validity of the PALMS. A quantitative, cross-sectional descriptive research design was employed. The Demographic Form, PALMS, and International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short form (IPAQ-S) questionnaires were used to assess motives and amount for physical activity in adults on two occasions. A sample of 640 (489 male, 151 female) undergraduate students aged 18 to 25 years (mean ±SD; 22.30±8.13 years) took part in the study. Male participants were divided into three types of activities, namely exercise, racquet sport, and team sports and female participants only took part in one type of activity, namely team sports. After 14 weeks, all 640 undergraduate students who had filled in the initial questionnaire (Occasion 1) received the questionnaire via email (Occasion 2). Of the 640 students, 493 (77%; 378 males, 115 females) emailed back the completed questionnaire. The results showed that not only were pertinent sub-scales of PALMS positively related to amount of physical activity, but separate regression analyses showed the positive predictive effect of PALMS motives for amount of physical activity for each type of physical activity among participants. This study supported the construct validity of the PALMS by showing that the motives measured by PALMS did predict amount of PA. This information can be obtained to match people with specific sport or activity which in turn could potentially promote longer adherence to the specific activity.Methods: A quantitative, cross-sectional descriptive research design was employed. The Demographic Form, PALMS, and International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short form (IPAQ-S) questionnaires were used to assess motives and amount for physical activity in adults on two occasions. A sample of 640 (489 male, 151 female) undergraduate students aged 18 to 25 years (mean ±SD; 22.30±8.13 years) took part in the study. Male participants were divided into three types of activities, namely exercise, racquet sport, and team sports and female participants only took part in one type of activity, namely team sports. After 14 weeks, all 640 undergraduate students who had filled in the initial questionnaire (Occasion 1) received the questionnaire via email (Occasion 2). Of the 640 students, 493 (77%; 378 males, 115 females) emailed back the completed questionnaire. Results: The results showed that not only were pertinent sub-scales of PALMS positively related to amount of physical activity, but separate regression analyses showed the positive predictive effect of PALMS motives for amount of physical activity for each type of physical activity among participants. This study supported the construct validity of the PALMS by showing that the motives measured by PALMS did predict amount of PA. Conclusion: This information can be obtained to match people with specific sport or activity which in turn could potentially promote longer adherence to the specific activity.

Keywords: physical activity, motivation, level of physical activity, type of physical activity

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Authors: Bhawat Chiamjinnawat

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The agri-food market transformation has implied market growth for the fruit industry in Thailand. This article focuses on analysis of farmer competence and farm resources which affect market strategies used by fruit farmers in Chanthaburi province of Thailand. The survey data were collected through the use of face-to-face interviews with structured questionnaires. This study identified 14 drivers related to farmer competence and farm resources of which some had significant effect on the decision to use either high-value markets or traditional markets. The results suggest that farmers who used high-value markets were better educated and they had longer experience and larger sized business. Identifying the important factors that match with the market transformation provides policy with opportunities to support the fruit farmers to increase their market power. Policies that promote business expansion of agricultural cooperatives and knowledge sharing among farmers are recommended to reduce limitations due to limited knowledge, low experience, and small business sizes.

Keywords: farmer competence, farm resources, fruit industry, high-value markets, Thailand

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Authors: Raluca Ana Maria Viziteu, Anna Prudnikova

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Industrial control systems (ICS) have received much attention in recent years due to the convergence of information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) that has increased the interdependence of safety and security issues to be considered. These issues require ICS-tailored solutions. That led to the need to creation of a methodology for supporting ICS device manufacturers and system integrators in carrying out threat modeling of embedded ICS devices in a way that guarantees the quality of the identified threats and minimizes subjectivity in the threat identification process. To research, the possibility of creating such a methodology, a set of existing standards, regulations, papers, and publications related to threat modeling in the ICS sector and other sectors was reviewed to identify various existing methodologies and methods used in threat modeling. Furthermore, the most popular ones were tested in an exploratory phase on a specific PLC device. The outcome of this exploratory phase has been used as a basis for defining specific characteristics of ICS embedded devices and their deployment scenarios, identifying the factors that introduce subjectivity in the threat modeling process of such devices, and defining metrics for evaluating the minimum quality requirements of identified threats associated to the deployment of the devices in existing infrastructures. Furthermore, the threat modeling methodology was created based on the previous steps' results. The usability of the methodology was evaluated through a set of standardized threat modeling requirements and a standardized comparison method for threat modeling methodologies. The outcomes of these verification methods confirm that the methodology is effective. The full paper includes the outcome of research on different threat modeling methodologies that can be used in OT, their comparison, and the results of implementing each of them in practice on a PLC device. This research is further used to build a threat modeling methodology tailored to OT environments; a detailed description is included. Moreover, the paper includes results of the evaluation of created methodology based on a set of parameters specifically created to rate threat modeling methodologies.

Keywords: device manufacturers, embedded devices, industrial control systems, threat modeling

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Authors: Heba M. Mohamed

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Owing to scientific and public concern about health and environment and seeking for a better quality of life; “Green”, “Environmentally” and “Eco” friendly practices have been presented and implemented in different research areas. Subsequently, researchers’ attention is drawn in the direction of greening the analytical methodologies and taking the Green Analytical Chemistry principles (GAC) into consideration. It is of high importance to appraise the environmental impact of each of the implemented green approaches. Compared to the other traditional green metrics (E-factor, Atom economy and the process profile), the eco scale is the optimum choice to assess the environmental impact of the analytical procedures used for pharmaceuticals analysis. For analytical methodologies, Eco-Scale is calculated by allotting penalty points to any factor of the used analytical procedure which disagree and not match with the model green analysis, where the perfect green analysis has its Eco-Scale value of 100. In this work, calculation and comparison of the Eco-Scale for some of the reported green analytical methods was done, to accentuate their greening potentials. Where the different scores can reveal how green the method is, compared to the ideal value. The study emphasizes that greenness measurement is not only about the waste quantity determination but also dictates a holistic scheme, considering all factors.

Keywords: eco scale, green analysis, environmentally friendly, pharmaceuticals analysis

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Authors: M. Erol Genevois, D. Celik, H. Z. Ulukan

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Automated teller machines (ATMs) can be considered among one of the most important service facilities in the banking industry. The investment in ATMs and the impact on the banking industry is growing steadily in every part of the world. The banks take into consideration many factors like safety, convenience, visibility, cost in order to determine the optimum locations of ATMs. Today, ATMs are not only available in bank branches but also at retail locations. Another important factor is the cash management in ATMs. A cash demand model for every ATM is needed in order to have an efficient cash management system. This forecasting model is based on historical cash demand data which is highly related to the ATMs location. So, the location and the cash management problem should be considered together. Although the literature survey on facility location models is quite large, it is surprising that there are only few studies which handle together ATMs location and cash management problem. In order to fulfill the gap, this paper provides a general review on studies, efforts and development in ATMs location and cash management problem.

Keywords: ATM location problem, cash management problem, ATM cash replenishment problem, literature review in ATMs

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Authors: Yiming Jin, Ping Dong

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The primary resonance of a pipeline close to a plane boundary is investigated in this paper. Based on classic Van der Pol equation and added a nonlinear item, a new wake oscillator model is proposed to predict the vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of a circular cylinder close to a plane boundary. Then, with the multi-scale method, the approximate solution for the case of the primary resonance is obtained. Besides, to study the characteristic of the primary resonance, the effects of the mass ration, frequency, damp ratio and gap ratio on the frequency-response curves of the pipeline are analysed. On the whole, the trend of the numerical results match up with that of the experimental data well and the mass ration, frequency, damp ratio and gap ratio play an important role in the vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of a circular cylinder close to a plane boundary, especially, the smaller is the mass ratio, the larger impact the gap ratio has on the frequency-response curves of the primary resonance.

Keywords: primary resonance, gap ratio, vortex-induced vibration, multi-scale method

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Authors: Afshan Channa, Sameeha Aleem, Harim Mohsin

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First rank symptoms (FRS) are considered to be pathognomic for Schizophrenia. However, FRS is not a distinctive feature of Schizophrenia. It has also been noticed in affective disorder, albeit not inclusive in diagnostic criteria. The presence of FRS in Mania leads to misdiagnosis of psychotic illness, further complicating the management and delay of appropriate treatment. FRS in Mania is associated with poor clinical and functional outcome. Its existence in the first episode of bipolar disorder may be a predictor of poor short-term outcome and decompensating course of illness. FRS in Mania is studied in west. However, the cultural divergence and detriments make it pertinent to study the frequency of FRS in affective disorder independently in Pakistan. Objective: The frequency of first rank symptoms in manic patients, who were under treatment at psychiatric services of tertiary care hospital. Method: The cross sectional study was done at psychiatric services of Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan. One hundred and twenty manic patients were recruited from November 2014 to May 2015. The patients who were unable to comprehend Urdu or had comorbid psychiatric or organic disorder were excluded. FRS was assessed by administration of validated Urdu version of Present State Examination (PSE) tool. Result: The mean age of the patients was 37.62 + 12.51. The mean number of previous manic episode was 2.17 + 2.23. 11.2% males and 30.6% females had FRS. This association of first rank symptoms with gender in patients of mania was found to be significant with a p-value of 0.008. All-inclusive, 19.2% exhibited FRS in their course of illness. 43.5% had thought broadcasting, made feeling, impulses, action and somatic passivity. 39.1% had thought insertion, 30.4% had auditory perceptual distortion, and 17.4% had thought withdrawal. However, none displayed delusional perception. Conclusion: The study confirms the presence of FRS in mania in both male and female, irrespective of the duration of current manic illness or previous number of manic episodes. A substantial difference was established between both the genders. Being married had no protective effect on the presence of FRS.

Keywords: first rank symptoms, Mania, psychosis, present state examination

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

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One of the most important factors affecting power plant performance is the reliability of the turbine units operated under different conditions. Reliability directly affects plant availability and performance. Therefore, it is very important to be able to analyze turbine units, as well as power plant system reliability and availability under various operational conditions. In this paper, data related to power station failures are collected and analyzed in detail for all power stations in the state of Kuwait. Failures are characterized and categorized. Reliabilities of various power plants are analyzed and availabilities are quantified. Based on calculated availabilities of all installed power plants, actual power output is estimated. Furthermore, based on the past 15 years of data, power consumption trend is determined and the demand for power in the future is forecasted. Estimated power output is compared to the forecasted demand in order to determine the need for future capacity expansion.

Keywords: power plants, reliability, availability, capacity, preventive maintenance, forecasting

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC). By considering two sets of data (raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data, while in the simulated data the return values show an increasing trend with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend with an upper bound. This clearly shows that although temperatures in the tropics show a sign of increase in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedance. The results of this paper are very vital in agricultural and environmental research.

Keywords: forecasting, generalized extreme value (GEV), meteorology, return level

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Authors: The Danh Phan

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House price forecasting is a main topic in the real estate market research. Effective house price prediction models could not only allow home buyers and real estate agents to make better data-driven decisions but may also be beneficial for the property policymaking process. This study investigates the housing market by using machine learning techniques to analyze real historical house sale transactions in Australia. It seeks useful models which could be deployed as an application for house buyers and sellers. Data analytics show a high discrepancy between the house price in the most expensive suburbs and the most affordable suburbs in the city of Melbourne. In addition, experiments demonstrate that the combination of Stepwise and Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the Mean Squared Error (MSE) measurement, consistently outperforms other models in terms of prediction accuracy.

Keywords: house price prediction, regression trees, neural network, support vector machine, stepwise

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Authors: Sarita Magu, Deepak Singh

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Study Design: This prospective study was conducted at the department of Radio Diagnosis, at Pt B.D. Sharma PGIMS, Rohtak in 57 patients of spine injury on radiographs or radiographically normal patients with neurological deficits presenting within 72 hours of injury. Aims: Evaluation of the role of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) in Spinal Trauma Patients and to compare MRI findings with clinical profile and neurological status of the patient and to correlate the MRI findings with neurological recovery of the patient and predict the outcome. Material and Methods: Neurological status of patients was assessed at the time of admission and discharge in all the patients and at long term interval of six months to one year in 27 patients as per American spine injury association classification (ASIA). On MRI cord injury was categorized into cord hemorrhage, cord contusion, cord edema only, and normal cord. Quantitative assessment of injury on MRI was done using mean canal compromise (MCC), mean spinal cord compression (MSCC) and lesion length. Neurological status at admission and neurological recovery at discharge and long term follow up was compared with various qualitative cord findings and quantitative parameters on MRI. Results: Cord edema and normal cord was associated with favorable neurological outcome. Cord contusion show lesser neurological recovery as compared to cord edema. Cord hemorrhage was associated with worst neurological status at admission and poor neurological recovery. Mean MCC, MSCC, and lesion length values were higher in patients presenting with ASIA A grade injury and showed decreasing trends towards ASIA E grade injury. Patients showing neurological recovery over the period of hospital stay and long term follow up had lower mean MCC, MSCC, and lesion length as compared to patients showing no neurological recovery. The data was statistically significant with p value <.05. Conclusion: Cord hemorrhage and higher MCC, MSCC and lesion length has poor prognostic value in spine injury patients.

Keywords: spine injury, cord hemorrhage, cord contusion, MCC, MSCC, lesion length, ASIA grading

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Authors: Tahsien Okasha

Abstract:

Transplantation medicine is one of the most challenging and complex areas of modern medicine. Some of the key areas for medical management are the problems of transplant rejection, during which the body has an immune response to the transplanted organ, possibly leading to transplant failure and the need to immediately remove the organ from the recipient. When possible, transplant rejection can be reduced through serotyping to determine the most appropriate donor-recipient match and through the use of immunosuppressant drugs. Postoperative care actually begins before the surgery in terms of education, discharge planning, nutrition, pulmonary rehabilitation, and patient/family education. This also allows for expectations to be managed. A multidisciplinary approach is the key, and collaborative team meetings are essential to ensuring that all team members are "on the same page.". The following clinical pathway map and guidelines with the aim to decrease alteration in clinical practice and are intended for those healthcare professionals who look after organ transplant patients. They are also intended to be useful to both medical and surgical trainees as well as nurse specialists and other associated healthcare professionals involved in the care of organ transplant patients. This pathway is general pathway include the general guidelines that can be applicable for all types of organ transplant with special considerations to each organ.

Keywords: organ transplant, clinical pathway, postoperative care, same page

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Authors: Shri Krishna Mishra, Badri Yadav

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Proficient persons should be involved in formulation of the structure of the textbooks so that the topics selected in the Hindi textbooks for Class VII should contribute towards linguistic and literary development of the child and the language of the textbook matches the comprehension level of the student.The topics of tile textbooks should provide good illustrations and suitable exercises. Topics of variety of taste can be included in the textbook to satisfy the inquisitive children. There could be abstracts/hints at the beginning of each lesson. Meanings for difficult words must be given at the end of each topic for convenience of the parents and children as most of them find it difficult and time consuming to use Hindi dictionary. Exercises should be relevant covering the whole topic and the difficulty level should match the maturity level of the students in respect of CBSE Board. The stitching and binding of CBSE prescribed books may be improved to increase durability.

Keywords: comparative study of CBSE and BSEMPB, Central Secondary Education, Board of Secondry Education, BHOPAL

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Authors: M. Van 'T Hof, R. V. Pasma, J. T. Bailly, H. W. Hoek, W. A. Ester

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Background: The transition into primary school can be challenging for children with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Due to the new demands that are made to children in this period, their limitations in social functioning and school achievements may manifest and appear faster. Detection of possible ASD signals mainly takes place by parents, teachers and during obligatory municipal maternal and child health centre visits. Physicians of municipal maternal and child health centres have limited education and instruments to detect ASD. Further education on detecting ASD is needed to optimally equip these doctors for this task. Most research aims to increase the early detection of ASD in children aged 0-3 years and shows positive results. However, there is a lack of research on educational interventions to detect ASD in children aged 4-6 years by municipal maternal and child health physicians. Aim: The aim of this study is to explore the effect of the online educational intervention: Detection of ASD in children aged 4-6 years for municipal maternal and child health physicians. This educational intervention is developed within The Reach-Aut Academic Centre for Autism; Transitions in education, and will be available throughout The Netherlands. Methods: Ninety-two participants will follow the educational intervention: Detection of ASD in children aged 4-6 years for municipal maternal and child health centre physicians. The educational intervention consists of three, one and a half hour sessions, which are offered through an online interactive classroom. The focus and content of the course has been developed in collaboration with three groups of stakeholders; autism scientists, clinical practitioners (municipal maternal and child health doctors and ASD experts) and parents of children with ASD. The primary outcome measure is knowledge about ASD: signals, early detection, communication with parents and referrals. The secondary outcome measures are the number of ASD related referrals, the attitude towards the mentally ill (CAMI), perceived competency about ASD knowledge and detection skills, and satisfaction about the educational intervention. Results and Conclusion: The study started in January 2016 and data collection will end mid 2017.

Keywords: ASD, child, detection, educational intervention, physicians

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Authors: Oluwatosin Samuel Adeoye

Abstract:

Ekiti State is an agrarian state located in south western part of Nigeria. The injected power to the Ado-Ekiti and the entire state are 25MW and 37.6 MW respectively. The estimated power demand for Ado Ekiti and Ekiti state were 29.01MW and 224.116MW respectively. The distributed power to the consumers is characterized with shortcomings which include: in-adequate supply, poor voltage regulation, improper usage, illiteracy and wastage. The power generation in Nigeria is presently 1680.60MW which does not match the estimated power demand of 15,000MW with a population of over 170 million citizens. This paper evaluates the energy utilization in Ado Ekiti metropolis, the wastage and its economic implication as well as effective means of its management. The use of direct interviews, administration of questionnaires, measurements of current and voltage with clamp multimeter, and simple mathematical approach were used for the purpose of evaluation. Recommendations were made with the view of reducing energy waste from mean value of 10.84% to 2% in order to reduce the cost implication such that the huge financial waste can be injected to other parts of the economy as well as the management of energy in Ekiti state.

Keywords: consumers, demand, energy, management, power supply, waste

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Authors: Yahia A. M. AlKhoudary

Abstract:

This Study presents the outcome of an investigation to evaluate the importance of autonomous learning as a means of motivation. However, very little research done in this field. Thus, the aims of this study are to ascertain the needs of the learners and to investigate their attitudes and motivation towards the mode of learning. Various suggestions made on how to improve learners’ participation in the learning process. A survey conducted on a sample group of 60 Omani College students. Self-report questionnaires and retrospective interviews conducted to find out their material-type preferences in a self-access learning context. Achieving autonomous learning system, which learners is one of the Ministry of Education goals in the Sultanate of Oman. As a result, this study presents the outcome of an investigation to evaluate the students’ performance in English as a Foreign Language (EFL). It focuses on the effect of autonomous learning that encourages students to learn English, a research conducted at Buraimi city, the Sultanate of Oman. The procedure of this investigation based on four dimensions: (1) sixty students are selected and divided into two groups, (2) pre and posttest projects are given to them, and (3) questionnaires are administered to both students who are involved in the experiment and 50 teachers (25 males and 25 females) to collect accurate data, (4) an interview with students and teachers to find out their attitude towards autonomous learning. Analysis of participants’ responses indicated that autonomous learning motivates students to learn English independently and increase the intrinsic rather than extrinsic motivation to improve their English language as a long-life active learning. The findings of this study show that autonomous learning approach is the best remedy to empower the students’ skills and overcome all relevant difficulties. They also show that secondary school teachers can fully rely on this learning approach that encourages language learners to monitor their progress, increase both learners and teachers’ motivation and ameliorate students’ behavior in the classroom. This approach is also an ongoing process, which takes time, patience and support to be lifelong learning.

Keywords: Omani, autonomous learning system, English as a Foreign Language (EFL), learning approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 454