Search results for: forecast combination

Authors: Sterling C. DeVerter

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In recent decades, there has been continually growing concern amongst scholars and political leaders towards the global resurgence of nationalism, particularly in Europe, the United States, and China. However, very few studies have attempted to empirically examine the relationship between religion and nationalism at the level of the individual, and none are known to have done so quantitatively. Building on Tajfel's and Turner's (1978) Social Identity Theory (SIT), and Anderson (1991) and Marx (2003), this study will employ SIT and regression analysis to compare the sources and patterns of nationalistic sentiment among European respondents in eight countries to the average levels of self-reported religiosity, religious participation, age, education, and income levels. Survey reports from the International Social Survey Programme were the primary quantitative data sources. It was hypothesized that the increase in nationalism across Europe follows this same evolution as first identified by Anderson, and is positively correlated to the reduction in reported religiosity. However, this study failed to reject the null, there was no substantial ( < .035) correlation between nationalistic sentiment and any of the measures of religiosity, nor were there any substantial correlations between nationalistic sentiment and either of the three control variables ( < .008). Across all countries examined, it was discovered that inclusionary nationalism has slightly declined (-5.08%), while exclusionary nationalism had increased substantially (+17.25%). The combined trend reflected an overall rise in nationalism across the time period and a forecast that suggests the current levels are also elevated. The primary implications include the demand to readdress the notion of religion and nationalism, and the correlation between the two, as well as the current nationalism trends in terms of support or non-support for future political and social movements.

Keywords: European Union, secularization, nationalism, social identity theory

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Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Changes in precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are expected to alter agricultural productivity patterns worldwide. The interactive effects of soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that determine crop yield and are sensitive to climatic changes. The study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and corresponding water productivity and nutrient use efficiency under climate change scenarios for the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia by mid (2041-2070) and end century (2071-2100). Projected impacts were evaluated using climate scenarios generated from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by the Swedish RCA4 Regional Climate Model (RCM) in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5). Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate yield, water and nutrient use for the study periods. Results indicate that rainfed maize yield might decrease on average by 16.5 and 23% by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively, due to climate change. Water productivity is expected to decline on average by 2.2 and 12% in the CRV by mid and end centuries with respect to the baseline. Nutrient uptake and corresponding nutrient use efficiency (NUE) might also be negatively affected by climate change. Phosphorus uptake probably will decrease in the CRV on average by 14.5 to 18% by 2050s, while N uptake may not change significantly at Melkassa. Nitrogen and P use efficiency indicators showed decreases in the range between 8.5 to 10.5% and between 9.3 to 10.5%, respectively, by 2050s relative to the baseline average. The simulation results further indicated that a combination of increased water availability and optimum nutrient application might increase both water productivity and nutrient use efficiency in the changed climate, which can ensure modest production in the future. Potential options that can improve water availability and nutrient uptake should be identified for the study locations using a crop modeling approach.

Keywords: crop model, climate change scenario, nutrient uptake, nutrient use efficiency, water productivity

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Authors: Habtamu Tkubet Ebuy

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Purpose Conventional dynamic energy simulation tools go beyond the static dimension of simplified methods by providing better and more accurate prediction of building performance. However, their ability to forecast actual performance is undermined by a low representation of human interactions. The purpose of this study is to examine the potential benefits of incorporating information on occupant diversity into occupant behavior models used to simulate building performance. The co-simulation of the stochastic behavior of the occupants substantially increases the accuracy of the simulation. Design/methodology/approach In this article, probabilistic models of the "opening and closing" behavior of the window of inhabitants have been developed in a separate multi-agent platform, SimOcc, and implemented in the building simulation, TRNSYS, in such a way that the behavior of the window with the interconnectivity can be reflected in the simulation analysis of the building. Findings The results of the study prove that the application of complex behaviors is important to research in predicting actual building performance. The results aid in the identification of the gap between reality and existing simulation methods. We hope this study and its results will serve as a guide for researchers interested in investigating occupant behavior in the future. Research limitations/implications Further case studies involving multi-user behavior for complex commercial buildings need to more understand the impact of the occupant behavior on building performance. Originality/value This study is considered as a good opportunity to achieve the national strategy by showing a suitable tool to help stakeholders in the design phase of new or retrofitted buildings to improve the performance of office buildings.

Keywords: occupant behavior, co-simulation, energy consumption, thermal comfort

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Authors: Sarah Gounden, Mukesh Dheda, Boikhutso Tlou, Elizabeth Ojewole, Frasia Oosthuizen

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Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been effective in the reduction of mortality and resulted in an improvement in the prognosis of HIV-infected patients. However, treatment with antiretrovirals (ARVs) has led to the development of many adverse drug reactions (ADRs). It is, therefore, necessary to determine the safety profile of these medicines in a South African population in order to ensure safe and optimal medicine use. Objectives: The aim of this study was to quantify ADRs experienced with the different ARVs currently used in South Africa, to determine the safety profile of ARV medicine in South Africa based on reported ADRs, and to determine the ARVs with the lowest risk profile based on specific patient populations. Methodology: This was a quantitative study. Individual case safety reports for the period January 2010 – December 2013 were obtained from the National Pharmacovigilance Center; these reports contained information on ADRs, ARV medicine, and patient demographics. Data was analysed to find associations that may exist between ADRs experienced, ARV medicines used and patient demographics. Results: A total of 1916 patient reports were received of which 1534 met the inclusion criteria for the study. The ARV with the lowest risk of ADRs were found to be lamivudine (0.51%, n=12), followed by lopinavir/ritonavir combination (0.8%, n=19) and abacavir (0.64%, n=15). A higher incidence of ADRs was observed in females compared to males. The age group 31–50 years and the weight group 61–80 kg had the highest incidence of ADRs reported. Conclusion: This study found that the safest ARVs to be used in a South African population are lamivudine, abacavir, and the lopinavir/ritonavir combination. Gender differences play a significant role in the occurrence of ADRs and both anatomical and physiological differences account for this. An increased BMI (body mass index) in both men and women showed an increase in the incidence of ADRs associated with ARV therapy.

Keywords: adverse drug reaction, antiretrovirals, HIV/AIDS, pharmacovigilance, South Africa

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Authors: Rania Hanafi Mahmoud Said, Rasha Mohamed Taha

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Background: A recent study has explored the potential of an approach to treating infected root canals using a combination of Mineral Trioxide Aggregate (MTA) and Tetracycline-loaded Nanochitosan. Material and methods: Forty dogs were included in the study, with infected periapical areas induced by leaving access openings in their teeth for four months. Bacteriological samples from the infected root canals were collected and managed anaerobically to identify and count the different microorganisms present. The most common microorganisms detected were Prevotella oris, Fusobacterium nucleatum, Streptococcus viridans, Enterococcus faecalis, Clostridium subterminale, Porphyromonas gingivalis, and Peptostreptococcus anaerobius. The dogs were divided into four groups based on the sealant used to treat the infected periapical areas: Group I: Negative control (no treatment) Group II: Positive control (MTA only) Group III: MTA + tetracycline Group IV: MTA + tetracycline loaded on nanochitosan Results: Periapical areas in Group IV showed significantly more bone healing than those in Groups I, II, and III. The newly formed bone was evaluated radiographically, histologically, and immunohistochemically using Osteopontin (OSP) antibodies. Data collected was statistically analysed using SPSS software at a 0.05 significance level. Conclusion: The study concluded that the combined use of Tetracycline-loaded Nanochitosan and MTA presents a promising approach for the treatment of infected root canals. The potent antimicrobial activity of Tetracycline-loaded Nanochitosan, along with the biocompatibility and desirable properties of MTA, may synergistically contribute to improved clinical outcomes in endodontic therapy. This study has important implications for the clinical management of infected root canals. The combination of Tetracycline-loaded Nanochitosan and MTA could provide a more effective and efficient means of treating these challenging cases. Further research is needed to confirm these findings in humans and to optimize the treatment protocol.

Keywords: mineral trioxide aggregate, tetracycline-loaded nanochitosan, periapical infection, osteopontine

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Authors: Karima Maazouz, Habib Benlahmer, Naceur Achtaich

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The realization of mobile payments will make possible new and unforeseen ways of convenience and m-commerce. Mobile payment today benefit from technology and trends. NFC technology is creating a new era of contactless mobile payment. the “M-check” is a mobile payment system provides a new way facilitating transaction with high valued payment and enable new m-commerce. The objective of the paper is to propose a new solution for m-payment. The proposed combination of m-check system and NFC offers acceptable security for payment mobile, client’s satisfaction, and simplifies the process payment between clients and merchants.

Keywords: M-payment, NFC, M-check, M-commerce, security

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Authors: Oyewole Charles Iledun, Shuaib Harira, Ezeogueri-Oyewole Anne Nnenna

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Due to high population pressure/human activities competing for agricultural land, the need to maximize the productivity of available land has become necessary; this has not been achievable in the tropics with monoculture systems where a single harvest per season is the practice. Thus, this study evaluates intercropping combination and tillage practice on yield and yield components of groundnut in a mixture with maize. The trial was conducted in the rainy seasons of 2020 and 2021 at the Kogi State University Students’ Research and Demonstration Farm, Latitude 70 301 and Longitude 70 091 E in the Southern Guinea Savannah agro-ecological zone of Nigeria. Treatment consisted of three tillage practices [as main plot factor] and five intercropping combinations [subplot factor] assigned to a 3 x 5 Factorial experiment replicated four times. Data were collected for growth, development, yield components, and yield of groundnut. Data collected were subjected to Statistical Analysis in line with Factorial Experiments. Means found to be statistically significant at 5 % probability were separated using the LSD method. Regarding yield components and yield related parameters in groundnuts, better performance was observed in cole cropped groundnut plots compared to the intercropped plots. However, intercropping groundnut with maize was generally advantageous, with LER greater than unity. Among the intercrops, the highest LERs were observed when one row of maize was cropped with one row of groundnut, with the least LER recorded in intercropping two rows of maize with one row of groundnut. For the tillage operations, zero tillage gave the highest LERs in both seasons, while the least LERs were recorded when the groundnut was planted on ridges. Since the highest LERs were observed when one row of maize was intercropped with one row of groundnut, this level of crop combination is recommended for the study area, while ridging may not be necessary to get good groundnut yield, particularly under similar soil conditions as obtained in the experimental area, and with similar rainfall observed during the experimental period.

Keywords: canopy height, leaf number, haulm yield / ha, pod yield / ha, harvest index and shelling percentage

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Authors: Radheshyam Yadav, Ramakrishna Wusirika

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Plant Growth Promoting Bacteria (PGPB) and Arbuscular Mycorrhizal (AM) Fungi are ubiquitous in soil and often very critical for crop yield and agriculture sustainability, and this has motivated the agricultural practices to support and promote PGPB and AM Fungi in agriculture. PGPB can be involved in a range of processes that affect Nitrogen (N) and Phosphorus (P) transformations in soil and thus influence nutrient availability and uptake to the plants. A field study with two wheat cultivars, HD-3086, and HD-2967 was performed in Malwa region, Bathinda of Punjab, India, to evaluate the effect of native and non-native PGPB alone and in combination with AM fungi as an inoculant on wheat grain yield, nutrient uptake and soil health parameters (dehydrogenase, urease, β‐glucosidase). Our results showed that despite an early insignificant increase in shoot length, plants treated with PGPB (Bacillus sp.) and AM Fungi led to a significant increase in shoot growth at maturity, aboveground biomass, nitrogen (45% - 40%) and phosphorus (40% - 34%) content in wheat grains relative to untreated control plants. Similarly, enhanced grain yield and nutrients uptake i.e. copper (27.15% - 36.25%) iron (43% - 53%) and zinc (44% - 47%) was recorded in PGPB and AM Fungi treated plants relative to untreated control. Overall, inoculation with native PGPB alone and in combination with AM Fungi provided benefits to enhance grain yield, wheat biofortification, and improved soil fertility, despite this effect varied depending on different PGPB isolates and wheat cultivars. These field study results provide evidence of the benefits of agricultural practices involving native PGPB and AM Fungi to the plants. These native strains and AM Fungi increased accumulations of copper, iron, and zinc in wheat grains, enhanced grain yield, and soil fertility.

Keywords: AM Fungi, biofortification, PGPB, soil microbial enzymes

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Authors: Tondani Mudau, Sherine B. Van Wyk, Zuhayr Kafaar, Janan Dietrich

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Female adolescents residing in a patriarchal society such as South Africa are more inclined to embrace feminine ideologies. Internalizing these ideologies may expose female adolescents to mental health challenges such as depression and anxiety. This study explored whether the internalisation of adolescent femininity ideologies namely, objectified relationship with own body (ORB) and inauthentic self in relationships (ISR) predicted anxiety and depression in late female adolescents at Stellenbosch University. The sample of the study consisted of 1451 (18-24) female undergraduate and postgraduate students enrolled at Stellenbosch University. The mean age of the participants was 20 (SD=1.46), and most participants (39.7%) were first-year students. The study employed a cross-sectional quantitative research design. Data was collected through an online self-completion survey, the survey consisted of three sections, the first section asked biographical questions regarding age, gender, race and family background. The second section measured the internalisation of feminine ideologies by using the adolescent femininity ideology scale which has two subscales namely inauthentic self in relationship with others (ISR) and objectified relationship with one’s own body (ORB). The ISR scale had the Cronbach Alpha of 0.76, and the ORB scale had the Cronbach Alpha of 0.83. The third section measured mental health (depression and anxiety) by using the Hopkins Symptoms 25-checklist which had the Cronbach Alpha of 0.93. Data were analysed through multiple linear regression from IBM SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences Version 24). The overall results of the multiple linear regression showed that The AFIS combination accounted for 14% for anxiety as measured by the Hopkins Symptoms Checklist R² = .142, F (2, 682) = 56.431, p < .001. The combination also accounted for 24% for depression as measured by the Hopkins Symptoms Checklist R² = .239, F (2, 682) = 106.971, p < .0. The findings in this study affirm the objectification and feminist theory contentions that internalising femininity ideologies (ISR and ORB) predict negative mental health in female adolescents.

Keywords: adolescents, anxiety, depression, feminine ideologies, inauthentic self, mental health, self-objectification, South Africa

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Authors: Risikat Oladoyin S. Dauda, Onyebuchi Iwegbu

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This study investigates the response of human development outcomes to selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. Human development outcomes is measured by human development index while the selected macroeconomic variables are inflation rate, real interest rate, government capital expenditure, real exchange rate, current account balance, and savings. Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique is employed in examining the response of human development index to the macroeconomic shocks. The result from the forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse-Response analysis reveals that fiscal policy (government capital expenditure) shock is the greatest determinant of human development outcomes. This result reiterates the role which the government plays in improving the welfare of the citizenry. The fiscal policy tool is pivotal in human development which comes in the form of investment in education, health, housing, and infrastructure. Further conclusion drawn from this study is that human development outcome positively and significantly responds to shocks from real interest rate, a monetary policy transmission variable and is felt greatly in the short run period. The policy implication of this study is that if capital budget implementation falls below expectations, human development will be engendered. Hence, efforts should be made to ensure that full implementation and appraisal of government capital expenditure is taken sacrosanct as any shock from such plan, engenders human development outcome.

Keywords: human development outcome, macroeconomic outcomes, structural vector autoregression, SVAR

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Authors: Yifat Koren Carmi, Abed Agbarya, Hazem Khamaisi, Raymond Farah, Yelena Shechtman, Roman Korobochka, Jacob Gopas, Jamal Mahajna

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Ovarian cancer (OC), the second most common form of gynecological malignancy, has a poor prognosis and is frequently identified in its late stages. The recommended treatment for OC typically includes a platinum-based chemotherapy, like carboplatin. Nonetheless, OC treatment has proven challenging due to toxicity and development of acquired resistance to therapy. Chemoresistance is a significant obstacle to a long-lasting response in OC patients, believed to arise from alterations within the cancer cells as well as within the tumor microenvironments (TME). Malignant ascites is a presenting feature in more than one-third of OC patients. It serves as a reservoir for a complex mixture of soluble factors, metabolites, and cellular components, providing a pro-inflammatory and tumor-promoting microenvironment for the OC cells. Malignant ascites is also associated with metastasis and chemoresistance. In an attempt to elucidate the role of TME in chemoresistance of OC, we monitored the ability of soluble factors derived from ascites fluids to affect platinum sensitivity of OC cells. This research, compared ascites fluids from non-malignant cirrhotic patients to those from OC patients in terms of their ability to alter the platinum sensitivity of OC cells. Our findings indicated that exposure to OC ascites induces platinum chemoresistance on OC cells in 11 out of 13 cases (85%). In contrast, 75% of cirrhosis ascites (3 out of 4) failed to confer platinum chemoresistance to OC cells. Cytokine array analysis revealed that IL-6, and to a lesser extent HGF were enriched in OC ascites, whereas IL-22 was enriched in cirrhosis ascites. Pharmaceutical inhibitors that target the IL-6/JAK signaling pathway were mildly effective in overcoming the platinum chemoresistance induced by malignant ascites. In contrast, Crizotinib an HGF/c-MET inhibitor, and 2-hydroxyestradiol (2HE2) were effective in restoring platinum chemoresistance to OC. Our findings demonstrate the importance of OC ascites in supporting platinum chemoresistance as well as the potential of a combination therapy with Crizotinib and the estradiol metabolite 2HE2 to regain OC cells chemosensitivity.

Keywords: ovarian cancer, platinum chemoresistance, malignant ascites, tumor microenvironment, IL-6, 2-hydroxyestradiol, HGF, crizotinib

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Authors: M. Magrini, D. Moroni, G. Palazzese, G. Pieri, D. Azzarelli, A. Spada, L. Fanucci, O. Salvetti

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Railway crossings are complex entities whose optimal management cannot be addressed unless with the help of an intelligent transportation system integrating information both on train and vehicular flows. In this paper, we propose an integrated system named SIMPLE (Railway Safety and Infrastructure for Mobility applied at level crossings) that, while providing unparalleled safety in railway level crossings, collects data on rail and road traffic and provides value-added services to citizens and commuters. Such services include for example alerts, via variable message signs to drivers and suggestions for alternative routes, towards a more sustainable, eco-friendly and efficient urban mobility. To achieve these goals, SIMPLE is organized as a System of Systems (SoS), with a modular architecture whose components range from specially-designed radar sensors for obstacle detection to smart ETSI M2M-compliant camera networks for urban traffic monitoring. Computational unit for performing forecast according to adaptive models of train and vehicular traffic are also included. The proposed system has been tested and validated during an extensive trial held in the mid-sized Italian town of Montecatini, a paradigmatic case where the rail network is inextricably linked with the fabric of the city. Results of the tests are reported and discussed.

Keywords: Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), railway, railroad crossing, smart camera networks, radar obstacle detection, real-time traffic optimization, IoT, ETSI M2M, transport safety

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Authors: Mohamed Khalifa Zayet, Salma Belal Eiid, Mushira Mohamed Dahaba

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Introduction: Malignant tumors may not be easily detected by traditional radiographic techniques especially in an anatomically complex area like maxillofacial region. At the same time, the advent of biological functional MRI was a significant footstep in the diagnostic imaging field. Objective: The purpose of this study was to define the malignant metabolic profile of maxillofacial lesions using diffusion MRI and magnetic resonance spectroscopy, as adjunctive aids for diagnosing of such lesions. Subjects and Methods: Twenty-one patients with twenty-two lesions were enrolled in this study. Both morphological and functional MRI scans were performed, where T1, T2 weighted images, diffusion-weighted MRI with four apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps were constructed for analysis, and magnetic resonance spectroscopy with qualitative and semi-quantitative analyses of choline and lactate peaks were applied. Then, all patients underwent incisional or excisional biopsies within two weeks from MR scans. Results: Statistical analysis revealed that not all the parameters had the same diagnostic performance, where lactate had the highest areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.9 and choline was the lowest with insignificant diagnostic value. The best cut-off value suggested for lactate was 0.125, where any lesion above this value is supposed to be malignant with 90 % sensitivity and 83.3 % specificity. Despite that ADC maps had comparable AUCs still, the statistical measure that had the final say was the interpretation of likelihood ratio. As expected, lactate again showed the best combination of positive and negative likelihood ratios, whereas for the maps, ADC map with 500 and 1000 b-values showed the best realistic combination of likelihood ratios, however, with lower sensitivity and specificity than lactate. Conclusion: Diffusion weighted imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy are state-of-art in the diagnostic arena and they manifested themselves as key players in the differentiation process of orofacial tumors. The complete biological profile of malignancy can be decoded as low ADC values, high choline and/or high lactate, whereas that of benign entities can be translated as high ADC values, low choline and no lactate.

Keywords: diffusion magnetic resonance imaging, magnetic resonance spectroscopy, malignant tumors, maxillofacial

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Authors: Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnessa Keya, Sharun Khushbu, Sheikh Abujar

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Since the beginning of China's economic reform, trade between the U.S. and China has grown rapidly, and has increased since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. The US imports more than it exports from China, reducing the trade war between China and the U.S. for the 2019 trade deficit, but in 2020, the opposite happens. In international and U.S. trade, Washington launched a full-scale trade war against China in March 2016, which occurred a catastrophic epidemic. The main goal of our study is to measure and predict trade relations between China and the U.S., before and after the arrival of the COVID epidemic. The ML model uses different data as input but has no time dimension that is present in the time series models and is only able to predict the future from previously observed data. The LSTM (a well-known Recurrent Neural Network) model is applied as the best time series model for trading forecasting. We have been able to create a sustainable forecasting system in trade between China and the US by closely monitoring a dataset published by the State Website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2021. Throughout the survey, we provided a 180-day forecast that outlined what would happen to trade between China and the US during COVID-19. In addition, we have illustrated that the LSTM model provides outstanding outcome in time series data analysis rather than RFR and SVR (e.g., both ML models). The study looks at how the current Covid outbreak affects China-US trade. As a comparative study, RMSE transmission rate is calculated for LSTM, RFR and SVR. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given very favorable thoughts in terms of China-US trade on the future export situation.

Keywords: RFR, China-U.S. trade war, SVR, LSTM, deep learning, Covid-19, export value, forecasting, time series analysis

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

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We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

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Authors: Iris W. A. Boot, Anke Wesselius, Maurice P. Zeegers

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Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). Vitamin D is involved in various biological functions which have the potential to prevent BC development. Besides, vitamin D also influences the uptake of calcium and phosphorus , thereby possibly indirectly influencing the risk of BC. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relation between vitamin D intake and BC risk. Individual dietary data were pooled from three cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of vitamin D, calcium and phosphorus. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using Cox-regression models. Analyses were adjusted for gender, age and smoking status (Model 1), and additionally for the food groups fruit, vegetables and meat (Model 2). Dose–response relationships (Model 1) were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. In total, 2,871 cases and 522,364 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an overall increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03-1.26). A similar increase BC risk with high vitamin D intake was observed among women and for the non-muscle invasive BC subtype, (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.15-1.72, HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01-1.27, respectively). High calcium intake decreased the BC risk among women (HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97). A combined inverse effect on BC risk was observed for low vitamin D intake and high calcium intake (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.93), while a positive effect was observed for high vitamin D intake in combination with low, moderate and high phosphorus (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.09-1.59, HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01-1.36, HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.31, respectively). Combining all nutrients showed a decreased BC risk for low vitamin D intake, high calcium and moderate phosphor intake (HR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.18-0.75), and an increased BC risk for moderate intake of all the nutrients (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02-1.38), for high vitamin D and low calcium and phosphor intake (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01-1.62), and for moderate vitamin D and calcium and high phosphorus intake (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.01-1.59). No significant dose-response analyses were observed. The findings of this study show an increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake and a decreased risk for high calcium intake. Besides, the study highlights the importance of examining the effect of a nutrient in combination with complementary nutrients for risk assessment. Future research should focus on nutrients in a wider context and in nutritional patterns.

Keywords: bladder cancer, nutritional oncology, pooled cohort analysis, vitamin D

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Authors: Jameson Mirimu, Edward Mawejje, Ibra Twinomujuni

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Introduction: Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) are a vulnerable category whose risk of acquiring HIV is 20 times compared to the general population accounting for 25% of the new infections. Despite proven scientific evidence of preventing HIV acquisition, Oral Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PreP) is less used as one of the biomedical interventions among the AGYW. By 2020, only 31000-32000 of the targeted 90,000 persons in Uganda enrolled on Oral PreP LPHS-EC project employed a combination of Expanded Peer Outreach Approach (EPOA) and Effective client follow-up to increase PreP initiation (PrEP_NEW) and continuation for more than three months (PrEP_CT). Method: Quantitatively, data from National Key population Combination tracker retrospectively analyzed by M&E, focused group discussion with AGYWs and Health care workers to identify barriers. Barriers found; hesitancy of AGYW, misconceptions about Oral PrEP, inadequate knowledge and skills in handling adolescent and Data quality issues. To address the mentioned barriers, youth friendly corners initiated in study sites, identified PrEP Champions among the AGYW, oral PrEP dialogues, group Antenatal counselling, CQI Projects initiated, weekly perfomance meetings to track performance. Results: Routine program data review PrEP_NEW and PrEP_CT increased from 5% (4/80) and 4% (2/54), respectively, in July 2022 to 90% (72/80) and 79% (43/54) respectively for PrEP_NEW and PrEP_CT at the end of March 2023. Lessons Learnt: Demystifying misconception about oral Prep through provision of adequate information by involving health care workers through skills enhancement, CQI projects are critical intervention. Conclusion: With improved safe spaces, skills enhancement of health workers, stakeholders’ engagement through Oral Prep dialogues is critical in improving PreP uptake and continuity among the AGYWS.

Keywords: prep, uptake, continuation, AGYW

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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Authors: H. Donya

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Monte Carlo (MC) techniques play a fundamental role in radiotherapy. A two non-water-equivalent of different media were used to evaluate the dose in water. For such purpose, Lu2SiO5 (LSO) and Y2SiO5 (YSO) orthosilicates scintillators are chosen for MC simulation using Penelope code. To get higher efficiency in dose calculation, variance reduction techniques are discussed. Overall results of this investigation ensured that the LSO/YSO bi-media a good combination to tackle over-response issue in dynamic photon radiotherapy.

Keywords: Lu2SiO5 (LSO) and Y2SiO5 (YSO) orthosilicates, Monte Carlo, correlated sampling, radiotherapy

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Authors: Skirmante Mozuriunaite

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Contemporary metropolitan areas and large cities are dynamic, rapidly growing and continuously changing. Thus, urban transformations and mutations are not a new phenomenon, but rather a continuous process. Basic factors of urban transformation are related to development of technologies, globalisation, lifestyle, etc., which, in combination with local factors, have generated an extremely great variety of urban development conditions. This article discusses the main urbanisation processes in Lithuania during last 50 year period and social factors affecting urban functional mutations.

Keywords: dispersion, functional mutations, urbanization, urban mutations, social factors

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Authors: I. Khabbazi, R. Ghasemi

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This paper presents a combination of both robust nonlinear controller and nonlinear controller for a class of nonlinear 4Y Octorotor UAV using Back-stepping and sliding mode controller. The robustness against internal and external disturbance and decoupling control are the merits of the proposed paper. The proposed controller decouples the Octorotor dynamical system. The controller is then applied to a 4Y Octorotor UAV and its feature will be shown.

Keywords: sliding mode, backstepping, decoupling, octorotor UAV

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Authors: Salman Akrokayan

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Synthetic cDNA (ScDNA) of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) was constructed using a DNA synthesizer with the aim to increase its expression level. 5' end of the ScDNA of G-CSF coding region was modified by decreasing the GC content without altering the predicted amino acids sequence. The identity of the resulting protein from ScDNA was confirmed by the highly specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In conclusion, a synthetic G-CSF cDNA in combination with the recombinant DNA protocol offers a rapid and reliable strategy for synthesizing the target protein. However, the commercial utilization of this methodology requires rigorous validation and quality control.

Keywords: synthetic cDNA, recombinant G-CSF, cloning, gene expression

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Authors: Milad Abbasi

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Carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite structures are increasingly being utilized in the automotive industry due to their lightweight and specific energy absorption capabilities. Although it is impossible to predict composite mechanical properties directly using theoretical methods, various research has been conducted so far in the literature for accurate simulation of CFRP structures' energy-absorbing behavior. In this research, axial compression experiments were carried out on hand lay-up unidirectional CFRP composite tubes. The fabrication method allowed the authors to extract the material properties of the CFRPs using ASTM D3039, D3410, and D3518 standards. A neural network machine learning algorithm was then utilized to build a robust prediction model to forecast the axial compressive properties of CFRP tubes while reducing high-cost experimental efforts. The predicted results have been compared with the experimental outcomes in terms of load-carrying capacity and energy absorption capability. The results showed high accuracy and precision in the prediction of the energy-absorption capacity of the CFRP tubes. This research also demonstrates the effectiveness and challenges of machine learning techniques in the robust simulation of composites' energy-absorption behavior. Interestingly, the proposed method considerably condensed numerical and experimental efforts in the simulation and calibration of CFRP composite tubes subjected to compressive loading.

Keywords: CFRP composite tubes, energy absorption, crushing behavior, machine learning, neural network

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Authors: Moatlhodi Wise Letshwenyo, Lesedi Lebogang

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Botswana is an arid country that needs to start reusing wastewater as part of its water security plan. Pilot scale slow sand filtration in combination with roughing filter was investigated for the treatment of effluent from Botswana International University of Science and Technology to meet Botswana irrigation standards. The system was operated at hydraulic loading rates of 0.04 m/hr and 0.12 m/hr. The results show that the system was able to reduce turbidity from 262 Nephelometric Turbidity Units to a range between 18 and 0 Nephelometric Turbidity Units which was below 30 Nephelometric Turbidity Units threshold limit. The overall efficacy ranged between 61% and 100%. Suspended solids, Biochemical Oxygen Demand, and Chemical Oxygen Demand removal efficiency averaged 42.6%, 45.5%, and 77% respectively and all within irrigation standards. Other physio-chemical parameters were within irrigation standards except for bicarbonate ion which averaged 297.7±44 mg L^-1 in the influent and 196.22±50 mg L^-1 in the effluent which was above the limit of 92 mg L^-1, therefore averaging a reduction of 34.1% by the system. Total coliforms, fecal coliforms, and Escherichia coli in the effluent were initially averaging 1.1 log counts, 0.5 log counts, and 1.3 log counts respectively compared to corresponding influent log counts of 3.4, 2.7 and 4.1, respectively. As time passed, it was observed that only roughing filter was able to reach reductions of 97.5%, 86% and 100% respectively for faecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, and total coliforms. These organism numbers were observed to have increased in slow sand filter effluent suggesting multiplication in the tank. Water quality index value of 22.79 for the physio-chemical parameters suggests that the effluent is of excellent quality and can be used for irrigation purposes. However, the water quality index value for the microbial parameters (1820) renders the quality unsuitable for irrigation. It is concluded that slow sand filtration in combination with roughing filter is a viable option for the treatment of secondary effluent for reuse purposes. However, further studies should be conducted especially for the removal of microbial parameters using the system.

Keywords: irrigation, slow sand filter, turbidity, wastewater reuse

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Authors: Manal M. Shehata, Kawther M. Abdel-Hamid, Nashwa A. Mohamed, Marwa H. Bakr, Maged S. Mahmoud, Hala M. Elbadre

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Introduction: The worldwide rapid increase in diabetes poses a significant challenge to current therapeutic approaches. Therapeutic utility of bone marrow transplantation in diabetes is an attractive approach. However, the oxidative stress generated by hyperglycemia may hinder β-cell regeneration. Curcumin, is a dietary spice with antioxidant activity. Aim of work: The present study was undertaken to investigate the therapeutic potential of curcumin, bone marrow transplantation, and their combined effects in the reversal of experimental diabetes. Material and Methods: Fifty adult male healthy albino rats were included in the present study.They were divided into two groups: Group І: (control group) included 10 rats. Group П: (diabetic group): included 40 rats. Diabetes was induced by single intraperitoneal injection of streptozotocin (STZ). Group II will be further subdivided into four groups (10 rats for each): Group II-a (diabetic control). Group II-b: rats were received single intraperitoneal injection of bone marrow suspension (un-fractionated bone marrow cells) prepared from rats of the same family. Group II-c: rats were treated with curcumin orally by gastric intubation for 6 weeks. Group II-d: rats were received a combination of single bone marrow transplantation and curcumin for 6 weeks. After 6 weeks, blood glucose, insulin levels were measured and the pancreas from all rats were processed for Histological, Immunohistochemical and morphometric examination. Results: Diabetic group, showed progressive histological changes in the pancreatic islets. Treatment with either curcumin or bone marrow transplantation improved the structure of the islets and reversed streptozotocin-induced hyperglycemia and hypoinsulinemia. Combination of curcumin and bone marrow transplantation elicited more profound alleviation of streptozotocin-induced changes including islet regeneration and insulin secretion. Conclusion: The use of natural antioxidants combined with bone marrow transplantation to induce pancreatic regeneration is a promising strategy in the management of diabetes.

Keywords: diabtes, panceatic islets, bone marrow transplantation, curcumin

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Authors: Hamza Javar Magnier, Leslie V. Woodcock

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We report extensive molecular dynamics (MD) computational investigations into the thermodynamic description of supercritical properties for a model fluid that is the simplest realistic representation of atoms or molecules. The pair potential is a hard-sphere repulsion of diameter σ with a very short attraction of length λσ. When λ = 1.005 the range is so short that the model atoms are referred to as “adhesive spheres”. Molecular dimers, trimers …etc. up to large clusters, or droplets, of many adhesive-sphere atoms are unambiguously defined. This then defines percolation transitions at the molecular level that bound the existence of gas and liquid phases at supercritical temperatures, and which define the existence of a supercritical mesophase. Both liquid and gas phases are seen to terminate at the loci of percolation transitions, and below a second characteristic temperature (Tc2) are separated by the supercritical mesophase. An analysis of the distribution of clusters in gas, meso- and liquid phases confirms the colloidal nature of this mesophase. The general phase behaviour is compared with both experimental properties of the water-steam supercritical region and also with formally exact cluster theory of Mayer and Mayer. Both are found to be consistent with the present findings that in this system the supercritical mesophase narrows in density with increasing T > Tc and terminates at a higher Tc2 at a confluence of the primary percolation loci. The expended plot of the MD data points in the mesophase of 7 critical and supercritical isotherms in highlight this narrowing in density of the linear-slope region of the mesophase as temperature is increased above the critical. This linearity in the mesophase implies the existence of a linear combination rule between gas and liquid which is an extension of the Lever rule in the subcritical region, and can be used to obtain critical parameters without resorting to experimental data in the two-phase region. Using this combination rule, the calculated critical parameters Tc = 0.2007 and Pc = 0.0278 are found be agree with the values found by of Largo and coworkers. The properties of this supercritical mesophase are shown to be consistent with an alternative description of the phenomenon of critical opalescence seen in the supercritical region of both molecular and colloidal-protein supercritical fluids.

Keywords: critical opalescence, supercritical, square-well, percolation transition, critical parameters.

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Authors: Jang kyun Cho, Jeong-dong Lee

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The advent of the Internet, mobile communications, and social network services has stimulated social interactions among consumers, allowing people to affect one another’s innovation adoptions by exchanging information more frequently and more quickly. Previous diffusion models, such as the Bass model, however, face limitations in reflecting such recent phenomena in society. These models are weak in their ability to model interactions between agents; they model aggregated-level behaviors only. The agent based model, which is an alternative to the aggregate model, is good for individual modeling, but it is still not based on an economic perspective of social interactions so far. This study assumes the presence of social utility from other consumers in the adoption of innovation and investigates the effect of individual interactions on innovation diffusion by developing a new model called the interaction-based diffusion model. By comparing this model with previous diffusion models, the study also examines how the proposed model explains innovation diffusion from the perspective of economics. In addition, the study recommends the use of a small-world network topology instead of cellular automata to describe innovation diffusion. This study develops a model based on individual preference and heterogeneous social interactions using utility specification, which is expandable and, thus, able to encompass various issues in diffusion research, such as reservation price. Furthermore, the study proposes a new framework to forecast aggregated-level market demand from individual level modeling. The model also exhibits a good fit to real market data. It is expected that the study will contribute to our understanding of the innovation diffusion process through its microeconomic theoretical approach.

Keywords: innovation diffusion, agent based model, small-world network, demand forecasting

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Authors: A. Mohammadi, M. Moghimi, S. Mohammadi

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Engineers need computational methods which could provide solutions less sensitive to the environmental effects, so the techniques should be used which take the uncertainty to account to control and minimize the risk associated with design and operation. In order to consider uncertainty in engineering problem, the optimization problem should be solved for a suitable range of the each uncertain input variable instead of just one estimated point. Using deterministic optimization problem, a large computational burden is required to consider every possible and probable combination of uncertain input variables. Several methods have been reported in the literature to deal with problems under uncertainty. In this paper, different methods presented and analyzed.

Keywords: uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulated, stochastic programming, scenario method

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Authors: Alexandros Pournaras, Anastasia Papadopoulou, Serafim Kontos, Anastasios Karakostas

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The air quality of modern cities is an important concern, as poor air quality contributes to human health and environmental issues. Reliable air quality forecasting has, thus, gained scientific and governmental attention as an essential tool that enables authorities to take proactive measures for public safety. In this study, the potential of Machine Learning (ML) models to forecast PM2.5 at local scale is investigated in the city of Thessaloniki, the second largest city in Greece, which has been struggling with the persistent issue of air pollution. ML models, with proven ability to address timeseries forecasting, are employed to predict the PM2.5 concentrations and the respective Air Quality Index 5-days ahead by learning from daily historical air quality and meteorological data from 2014 to 2016 and gathered from two stations with different land use characteristics in the urban fabric of Thessaloniki. The performance of the ML models on PM2.5 concentrations is evaluated with common statistical methods, such as R squared (r²) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), utilizing a portion of the stations’ measurements as test set. A multi-categorical evaluation is utilized for the assessment of their performance on respective AQIs. Several conclusions were made from the experiments conducted. Experimenting on MLs’ configuration revealed a moderate effect of various parameters and training schemas on the model’s predictions. Their performance of all these models were found to produce satisfactory results on PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, their application on untrained stations showed that these models can perform well, indicating a generalized behavior. Moreover, their performance on AQI was even better, showing that the MLs can be used as predictors for AQI, which is the direct information provided to the general public.

Keywords: Air Quality, AQ Forecasting, AQI, Machine Learning, PM2.5

Procedia PDF Downloads 77