Search results for: external costs

Authors: Muhammad Tahir Riaz, Khalid Mehmood, Ahmad Waseem Akhtar, Tariq Abbas, Sadaqat Ali, Muhammad Altaf

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Livestock sector contributes around 55.9 and 11.8% to agriculture and GDP respectively, according to economic survey of Pakistan 2013-2014. The goats population has been estimated about 66.6 million (M). Parasitic infestation is a major health problem in goats causing loss in body weight, poor body condition, low birth weights, and difficulty in kidding. Keeping in view the utilization of these animals in the country, a pilot epidemiological survey was conducted to find out the major parasitic problems of goats in and around Derawar fort area, Cholistan. Data regarding 662 fecal samples of goats was collected from 25 tobas of Cholistan during June 2012 to June 2013. All the fecal samples were examined through Direct Smear Method and Salt Flotation Technique for the presence of helminth eggs. External parasites were taken from the various components of the carcass of goat and were conserved in 70% alcohol in hygienic, properly enclosed glass jars that were tagged thoroughly. The collected date was analyzed statistically by Chi-square test to find out the prevalence in goats. Out of 662 goats, 261 (39.42%) were found positive for parasites. 233 (35.20%) goats were found positive for gastrointestinal parasites while 28 (4.23%) were positive for external parasites including ticks 20 (3.02%) and mange 8 (1.21%). The higher prevalence of parasites in the study area may be due to pasture grazing, poor management and lack of extension work. In this regards proper management and control measures should be adopted to minimize the Parasitic Problems.

Keywords: Cholistan, goats, parasite, surveillance

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Authors: Yongxin Chen, Min Zhang

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As industrial enterprises are the primary source of national pollution, environmental information disclosure is a crucial way to demonstrate to stakeholders the work they have done in fulfilling their environmental responsibilities and accepting social supervision. In the era of the digital economy, many companies, actively embracing the opportunities that come with digital transformation, have begun to apply digital technology to information collection and disclosure within the enterprise. However, less is known about the relationship between digital transformation and environmental disclosure. This study investigates how enterprise digital transformation affects environmental disclosure in 643 Chinese industrial companies, according to information processing theory. What is intriguing is that the depth (size) and breadth (diversity) of environmental disclosure linearly increase with the rise in the collection, processing, and analytical capabilities in the digital transformation process. However, the volume of data will grow exponentially, leading to a marginal increase in the economic and environmental costs of utilizing, storing, and managing data. In our empirical findings, linearly increasing benefits and marginal costs create a unique inverted U-shaped relationship between the degree of digital transformation and environmental disclosure in the Chinese industrial sector. Besides, based on the upper echelons theory, we also propose that the top management team with high stability and managerial capabilities will invest more effort and expense into improving environmental disclosure quality, lowering the carbon footprint caused by digital technology, maintaining data security etc. In both these contexts, the increasing marginal cost curves would become steeper, weakening the inverted U-shaped slope between DT and ED.

Keywords: digital transformation, environmental disclosure, the top management team, information processing theory, upper echelon theory

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Authors: M. Seguini, D. Nedjar

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An accuracy nonlinear analysis of a deep beam resting on elastic perfectly plastic soil is carried out in this study. In fact, a nonlinear finite element modeling for large deflection and moderate rotation of Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on linear and nonlinear random soil is investigated. The geometric nonlinear analysis of the beam is based on the theory of von Kàrmàn, where the Newton-Raphson incremental iteration method is implemented in a Matlab code to solve the nonlinear equation of the soil-beam interaction system. However, two analyses (deterministic and probabilistic) are proposed to verify the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed model where the theory of the local average based on the Monte Carlo approach is used to analyze the effect of the spatial variability of the soil properties on the nonlinear beam response. The effect of six main parameters are investigated: the external load, the length of a beam, the coefficient of subgrade reaction of the soil, the Young’s modulus of the beam, the coefficient of variation and the correlation length of the soil’s coefficient of subgrade reaction. A comparison between the beam resting on linear and nonlinear soil models is presented for different beam’s length and external load. Numerical results have been obtained for the combination of the geometric nonlinearity of beam and material nonlinearity of random soil. This comparison highlighted the need of including the material nonlinearity and spatial variability of the soil in the geometric nonlinear analysis, when the beam undergoes large deflections.

Keywords: finite element method, geometric nonlinearity, material nonlinearity, soil-structure interaction, spatial variability

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Authors: Wieland Hoppe, Nadine Wachter, Stefan Bringezu

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) utilization might be a promising way to substitute fossil raw materials like coal, oil or natural gas as carbon source of chemical production. While first life cycle assessments indicate a positive environmental performance of CO2-based process routes, a commercialization of CO2 is limited by several economic obstacles up to now. We, therefore, analyzed the economic performance of the three CO2-based chemicals methane and methanol as basic chemicals and polyoxymethylene as polymer on a cradle-to-gate basis. Our approach is oriented towards life cycle costing. The focus lies on the cost drivers of CO2-based technologies and options to stimulate a CO2-based economy by changing regulative factors. In this way, we analyze various modes of operation and give an outlook for the potentially cost-effective development in the next decades. Biogas, waste gases of a cement plant, and flue gases of a waste incineration plant are considered as CO2-sources. The energy needed to convert CO2 into hydrocarbons via electrolysis is assumed to be supplied by wind power, which is increasingly available in Germany. Economic data originates from both industrial processes and process simulations. The results indicate that CO2-based production technologies are not competitive with conventional production methods under present conditions. This is mainly due to high electricity generation costs and regulative factors like the German Renewable Energy Act (EEG). While the decrease in production costs of CO2-based chemicals might be limited in the next decades, a modification of relevant regulative factors could potentially promote an earlier commercialization.

Keywords: carbon capture and utilization (CCU), economic assessment, life cycle costing (LCC), power-to-X

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Authors: Leonardo C. Pacheco-Londoño, Nataly J Galan-Freyle, Lisandro Pacheco-Lugo, Antonio Acosta-Hoyos, Elkin Navarro, Gustavo Aroca-Martinez, Karin Rondón-Payares, Alberto C. Espinosa-Garavito, Samuel P. Hernández-Rivera

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At the Life Science Research Center at Simon Bolivar University, a primary focus is the diagnosis of various diseases, and the use of gold nanoparticles (Au-NPs) in diverse biomedical applications is continually expanding. In the present study, Au-NPs were employed as substrates for Surface-Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (SERS) aimed at diagnosing kidney diseases arising from Lupus Nephritis (LN), preeclampsia (PC), and Hypertension (H). Discrimination models were developed for distinguishing patients with and without kidney diseases based on the SERS signals from urine samples by partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). A comparative study of the Raman signals across the three conditions was conducted, leading to the identification of potential metabolite signals. Model performance was assessed through cross-validation and external validation, determining parameters like sensitivity and specificity. Additionally, a secondary analysis was performed using machine learning (ML) models, wherein different ML algorithms were evaluated for their efficiency. Models’ validation was carried out using cross-validation and external validation, and other parameters were determined, such as sensitivity and specificity; the models showed average values of 0.9 for both parameters. Additionally, it is not possible to highlight this collaborative effort involved two university research centers and two healthcare institutions, ensuring ethical treatment and informed consent of patient samples.

Keywords: SERS, Raman, PLS-DA, kidney diseases

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Authors: Clara Shenderey, Helena Vitoshkin, Mordechai Barak, Avraham Arbel

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Greenhouse cultivation is an energy-intensive process due to the high demands on cooling or heating according to external climatic conditions, which could be extreme in the summer or winter seasons. The thermal radiation rate inside a greenhouse depends mainly on the type of covering material and greenhouse construction. Using additional thermal screens under a greenhouse covering combined with a dehumidification system improves the insulation and could be cost-effective. Greenhouse covering material usually contains protective ultraviolet (UV) radiation additives to prevent the film wear, insect harm, and crop diseases. This paper investigates the overall heat transfer coefficient, or U-value, for greenhouse polyethylene covering contains UV-additives and glass covering with or without a thermal screen supplement. The hot-box method was employed to evaluate overall heat transfer coefficients experimentally as a function of the type and number of the thermal screens. The results show that the overall heat transfer coefficient decreases with increasing the number of thermal screens as a hyperbolic function. The overall heat transfer coefficient highly depends on the ability of the material to reflect thermal radiation. Using a greenhouse covering, i.e., polyethylene films or glass, in combination with high reflective thermal screens, i.e., containing about 98% of aluminum stripes or aluminum foil, the U-value reduces by 61%-89% in the first case, whereas by 70%-92% in the second case, depending on the number of the thermal screen. Using thermal screens made from low reflective materials may reduce the U-value by 30%-57%. The heat transfer coefficient is an indicator of the thermal insulation properties of the materials, which allows farmers to make decisions on the use of appropriate thermal screens depending on the external and internal climate conditions in a greenhouse.

Keywords: energy-saving thermal screen, greenhouse cover material, heat transfer coefficient, hot box

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Authors: Spandana Ramisetty, Mandan Chidambaram, Ramesh Bhujade

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Algal biomass is not only a potential source for biocrude but also for high value chemicals like carotenoids, fatty acids, proteins, polysaccharides, vitamins etc. Astaxanthin is one such high value vital carotenoid which has extensive applications in pharmaceutical, aquaculture, poultry and cosmetic industries and expanding as dietary supplement to humans. Green microalgae Haematococcus pluvialis is identified as the richest natural source of astaxanthin and is the key source of commercial astaxanthin. Several extraction processes from wet and dry Haematococcus pluvialis biomass have been explored by researchers. Extraction with supercritical CO₂ and various physical disruption techniques like mortar and pestle, homogenization, ultrasonication and ball mill from dried algae are widely used extraction methods. However, these processes require energy intensive drying of biomass that escalates overall costs notably. From the process economics perspective, it is vital to utilize wet processing technology in order to eliminate drying costs. Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermo-chemical conversion process that converts wet biomass containing over 80% water to bio-products under high temperature and high pressure conditions. Astaxanthin is a lipid soluble pigment and is usually extracted along with lipid component. Mild HTL at 200°C and 60 bar has been demonstrated by researchers in a microfluidic platform achieving near complete extraction of astaxanthin from wet biomass. There is very limited work done in this field. An integrated approach of sequential HTL offers cost-effective option to extract astaxanthin/lipid from wet algal biomass without drying algae and also recovering water, minerals and nutrients. This paper reviews past work and evaluates the astaxanthin extraction processes with focus on hydrothermal extraction.

Keywords: astaxanthin, extraction, high value chemicals, hydrothermal liquefaction

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Authors: Naghmeh M. Bandari, Javad Dargahi, Muthukumaran Packirisamy

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Robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery (RMIS) has been widely performed around the world during the last two decades. RMIS demonstrates significant advantages over conventional surgery, e.g., improving the accuracy and dexterity of a surgeon, providing 3D vision, motion scaling, hand-eye coordination, decreasing tremor, and reducing x-ray exposure for surgeons. Despite benefits, surgeons cannot touch the surgical site and perceive tactile information. This happens due to the remote control of robots. The literature survey identified the lack of force feedback as the riskiest limitation in the existing technology. Without the perception of tool-tissue contact force, the surgeon might apply an excessive force causing tissue laceration or insufficient force causing tissue slippage. The primary use of force sensors has been to measure the tool-tissue interaction force in real-time in-situ. Design of a tactile sensor is subjected to a set of design requirements, e.g., biocompatibility, electrical-passivity, MRI-compatibility, miniaturization, ability to measure static and dynamic force. In this study, a planar optical fiber-based sensor was proposed to mount at the surgical grasper. It was developed based on the light intensity modulation principle. The deflectable part of the sensor was a beam modeled as a cantilever Euler-Bernoulli beam on rigid substrates. A semi-cylindrical indenter was attached to the bottom surface the beam at the mid-span. An optical fiber was secured at both ends on the same rigid substrates. The indenter was in contact with the fiber. External force on the sensor caused deflection in the beam and optical fiber simultaneously. The micro-bending of the optical fiber would consequently result in light power loss. The sensor was simulated and studied using finite element methods. A laser light beam with 800nm wavelength and 5mW power was used as the input to the optical fiber. The output power was measured using a photodetector. The voltage from photodetector was calibrated to the external force for a chirp input (0.1-5Hz). The range, resolution, and hysteresis of the sensor were studied under monotonic and harmonic external forces of 0-2.0N with 0 and 5Hz, respectively. The results confirmed the validity of proposed sensing principle. Also, the sensor demonstrated an acceptable linearity (R2 > 0.9). A minimum external force was observed below which no power loss was detectable. It is postulated that this phenomenon is attributed to the critical angle of the optical fiber to observe total internal reflection. The experimental results were of negligible hysteresis (R2 > 0.9) and in fair agreement with the simulations. In conclusion, the suggested planar sensor is assessed to be a cost-effective solution, feasible, and easy to use the sensor for being miniaturized and integrated at the tip of robotic graspers. Geometrical and optical factors affecting the minimum sensible force and the working range of the sensor should be studied and optimized. This design is intrinsically scalable and meets all the design requirements. Therefore, it has a significant potential of industrialization and mass production.

Keywords: force sensor, minimally invasive surgery, optical sensor, robotic surgery, tactile sensor

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Authors: Siham Rahoui, Amr Mahfouz, Amr Arisha

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In a highly competitive environment characterised by uncertainty and disruptions, such as the recent COVID-19 outbreak, supply chains (SC) face the challenge of maintaining their cost at minimum levels while continuing to provide customers with high-quality products and services. More importantly, businesses in such an economic context strive to maintain survival by keeping the cost of undertaken activities (such as logistics) low and in-house. To do so, managers need to understand the costs associated with different products and services in order to have a clear vision of the SC performance, maintain profitability levels, and make strategic decisions. In this context, SC literature explored different costing models that sought to determine the costs of undertaking supply chain-related activities. While some cost accounting techniques have been extensively explored in the SC context, more contributions are needed to explore the potential of time driven activity-based costing (TDABC). More specifically, more applications are needed in the manufacturing context of the SC, where the debate is ongoing. The aim of the study is to assess the capability of the technique to assess the operational performance of the logistics function. Through a case study methodology applied to a manufacturing company operating in the automotive industry, TDABC evaluates the efficiency of the current configuration and its logistics processes. The study shows that monitoring the process efficiency and cost efficiency leads to strategic decisions that contributed to improve the overall efficiency of the logistics processes.

Keywords: efficiency, operational performance, supply chain costing, time driven activity based costing

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Accurate forecasting of project performance metrics is crucial for successfully managing and delivering urban road reconstruction projects. Traditional methods often rely on static baseline plans and fail to consider the dynamic nature of project progress and external factors. This research proposes a machine learning-based approach to forecast project performance metrics, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category in an urban road reconstruction project. The proposed model utilizes time series forecasting techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance based on historical data and project progress. The model also incorporates external factors, such as weather patterns and resource availability, as features to enhance the accuracy of forecasts. By applying the predictive power of machine learning, the performance forecasting model enables proactive identification of potential deviations from the baseline plan, which allows project managers to take timely corrective actions. The research aims to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a case study of an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's forecasts with actual project performance data. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry, offering a data-driven solution for improving project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, earned value management

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Authors: Aleksandr I. Korobov, Natalia V. Shirgina, Aleksey I. Kokshaiskiy

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The transformation of two types of acoustic waves can occur on a flat interface between two solids at oblique incidence of longitudinal and shear bulk acoustic waves (BAW). This paper presents the results of experimental studies of the properties of reflection and propagation of longitudinal wave and generation of second and third longitudinal and shear harmonics of BAW at oblique incidence of longitudinal BAW on a flat rough boundary between two solids. The experimental sample was a rectangular isosceles pyramid made of D16 aluminum alloy with the plane parallel bases cylinder made of D16 aluminum alloy pressed to the base. The piezoelectric lithium niobate transducer with a resonance frequency of 5 MHz was secured to one face of the pyramid to generate a longitudinal wave. Longitudinal waves emitted by this transducer felt at an angle of 45° to the interface between two solids and reflected at the same angle. On the opposite face of the pyramid, and on the flat side of the cylinder was attached longitudinal transducer with resonance frequency of 10 MHz or the shear transducer with resonance frequency of 15 MHz. These transducers also effectively received signal at a frequency of 5 MHz. In the spectrum of the transmitted and reflected BAW was observed shear and longitudinal waves at a frequency of 5 MHz, as well as longitudinal harmonic at a frequency harmonic of 10 MHz and a shear harmonic at frequency of 15 MHz. The effect of reversing changing of external pressure applied to the rough interface between two solids on the value of the first and higher harmonics of the BAW at oblique incidence on the interface of the longitudinal BAW was experimentally investigated. In the spectrum of the reflected signal from the interface, there was a decrease of amplitudes of the first harmonics of the signal, and non-monotonic dependence of the second and third harmonics of shear wave with an increase of the static pressure applied to the interface. In the spectrum of the transmitted signal growth of the first longitudinal and shear harmonic amplitude and non-monotonic dependence - first increase and then decrease in the amplitude of the second and third longitudinal shear harmonic with increasing external static pressure was observed. These dependencies were hysteresis at reversing changing of external pressure. When pressure applied to the border increased, acoustic contact between the surfaces improves. This increases the energy of the transmitted elastic wave and decreases the energy of the reflected wave. The second longitudinal acoustic harmonics generation was associated with the Hertz nonlinearity on the interface of two pressed rough surfaces, the generation of the third harmonic was caused by shear hysteresis nonlinearity due to dry friction on a rough interface. This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project №14-22-00042).

Keywords: generation of acoustic harmonics, hysteresis nonlinearity, Hertz nonlinearity, transformation of acoustic waves

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Authors: T. Holecki, J. Wozniak-Holecka, K. Sobczyk

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Development, implementation, and evaluation of the effects of health policy programs, resulting from the identified health needs and health status of residents, is the own task of all local government units in Poland. This is due to the obligation to provide access to healthcare services to all residents and the implementation of tasks in the field of health promotion based on specific legal acts. Until the end of 2016 local governments financed health policy programs only with their own funds. Currently, there are additional resources available from the public health insurance subsidising up to 80% of health policy programs costs in cities with a population under 5 thousand people and up to 40% in bigger cities. Changes in legal provisions do not translate automatically to increased involvement of local government units in the implementation of public health tasks. The main objective of the study was to assess the actual impact of the new legal regulation on financing local health policy programs on the engagement of local administration in this area of public health activity. To achieve this aim, we analyzed difference in the number of local governments developing and implementing health policy programs before and after the new law came into force. The aim of the study was also to estimate the level of expenditures incurred by self-government units and the National Health Fund to cover the costs of health policy programs. In the first stage of the project, legal acts concerning the subject of research and financial data published by the National Health Fund were analyzed. The material for the second, main stage of the study was the detailed financial data obtained from the National Health Fund and data obtained from local government units. The results present the situation in Poland in territorial terms, divided into 16 voivodships.

Keywords: health care system, health policy programs, local self-governments, public health

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Alberto Azevedo, Ricardo Martins, André B. Fortunato, Anabela Oliveira

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Water is under severe threat today because of the rising population, increased agricultural and industrial needs, and the intensifying effects of climate change. Due to sea-level rise, erosion, and demographic pressure, the coastal regions are of significant concern to the scientific community. The Water Monitoring Sentinel Cloud platform (WORSICA) service is focused on providing new tools for monitoring water in coastal and inland areas, taking advantage of remote sensing, in situ and tidal modeling data. WORSICA is a service that can be used to determine the coastline, coastal inundation areas, and the limits of inland water bodies using remote sensing (satellite and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles - UAVs) and in situ data (from field surveys). It applies to various purposes, from determining flooded areas (from rainfall, storms, hurricanes, or tsunamis) to detecting large water leaks in major water distribution networks. This service was built on components developed in national and European projects, integrated to provide a one-stop-shop service for remote sensing information, integrating data from the Copernicus satellite and drone/unmanned aerial vehicles, validated by existing online in-situ data. Since WORSICA is operational using the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC) computational infrastructures, the service can be accessed via a web browser and is freely available to all European public research groups without additional costs. In addition, the private sector will be able to use the service, but some usage costs may be applied, depending on the type of computational resources needed by each application/user. Although the service has three main sub-services i) coastline detection; ii) inland water detection; iii) water leak detection in irrigation networks, in the present study, an application of the service to Óbidos lagoon in Portugal is shown, where the user can monitor the evolution of the lagoon inlet and estimate the topography of the intertidal areas without any additional costs. The service has several distinct methodologies implemented based on the computations of the water indexes (e.g., NDWI, MNDWI, AWEI, and AWEIsh) retrieved from the satellite image processing. In conjunction with the tidal data obtained from the FES model, the system can estimate a coastline with the corresponding level or even topography of the inter-tidal areas based on the Flood2Topo methodology. The outcomes of the WORSICA service can be helpful for several intervention areas such as i) emergency by providing fast access to inundated areas to support emergency rescue operations; ii) support of management decisions on hydraulic infrastructures operation to minimize damage downstream; iii) climate change mitigation by minimizing water losses and reduce water mains operation costs; iv) early detection of water leakages in difficult-to-access water irrigation networks, promoting their fast repair.

Keywords: remote sensing, coastline detection, water detection, satellite data, sentinel, Copernicus, EOSC

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Authors: Babatunde Kasim Oladele

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One of the major objectives of the Nigeria national policy on education is the provision of equal educational opportunities to all citizens at different levels of education. With regards to higher education, an aspect of the policy encourages distance learning to be organized and delivered by tertiary institutions in Nigeria. This study therefore, determines how much of the Government resources are committed, how the resources are utilized and what alternative sources of funding are available for this system of education. This study investigated the trends in recurrent costs between 2004/2005 and 2013/2014 at University of Ibadan Distance Learning Centre (DLC). A descriptive survey research design was employed for the study. Questionnaire was the research instrument used for the collection of data. The population of the study was 280 current distance learning education students, 70 academic staff and 50 administrative staff. Only 354 questionnaires were correctly filled and returned. Data collected were analyzed and coded using the frequencies, ratio, average and percentages were used to answer all the research questions. The study revealed that staff salaries and allowances of academic and non-academic staff represent the most important variable that influences the cost of education. About 55% of resources were allocated to this sector alone. The study also indicates that costs rise every year with increase in enrolment representing a situation of diseconomies of scale. This study recommends that Universities who operates distance learning program should strive to explore other internally generated revenue option to boost their revenue. University of Ibadan, being the premier university in Nigeria, should be given foreign aid and home support, both financially and materially, to enable the institute to run a formidable distance education program that would measure up in planning and implementation with those of developed nation.

Keywords: open education, distance education, University of Ibadan, Nigeria, cost of education

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Authors: Mei Han, Jinkou Zhao, Yuan Yao, Liangui Feng, Xianbin Ding, Guohui Wu, Chao Zhou, Lin Ouyang, Rongrong Lu, Bo Zhang

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To compare the HIV incidence estimated using BED capture enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (BED-CEIA) and observed in a cohort against the HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) measured by pooling polymerase chain reaction (pooling-PCR). A total of 617 MSM subjects were included in a respondent driven sampling survey in Chongqing in 2008. Among the 129 that were tested HIV antibody positive, 102 were defined with long-term infection, 27 were assessed for recent HIV infection (RHI) using BED-CEIA. The remaining 488 HIV negative subjects were enrolled to the prospective cohort and followed-up every 6 months to monitor HIV seroconversion. All of the 488 HIV negative specimens were assessed for acute HIV infection (AHI) using pooling-PCR. Among the 488 negative subjects in the open cohort, 214 (43.9%) were followed-up for six months, with 107 person-years of observation and 14 subjects seroconverted. The observed HIV incidence was 12.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI=9.1-15.7). Among the 488 HIV negative specimens, 5 were identified with acute HIV infection using pooling-PCR at an annual rate of 14.02% (95% CI=1.73-26.30). The estimated HIV-1 incidence was 12.02% (95% CI=7.49-16.56) based on BED-CEIA. The HIV incidence estimated with three different approaches was different among subgroups. In the highly HIV prevalent MSM, it costs US$ 1724 to detect one AHI case, while detection of one case of RHI with BED assay costs only US$ 42. Three approaches generated comparable and high HIV incidences, pooling PCR and prospective cohort are more close to the true level of incidence, while BED-CEIA seemed to be the most convenient and economical approach for at-risk population’s HIV incidence evaluation at the beginning of HIV pandemic. HIV-1 incidences were alarmingly high among MSM population in Chongqing, particularly within the subgroup under 25 years of age and those migrants aged between 25 to 34 years.

Keywords: BED-CEIA, HIV, incidence, pooled PCR, prospective cohort

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Authors: Emmanuel Mkambankhani, Tiwonge Manda

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Software platform architecture includes system components, their relationships, and design, as well as evolution principles. Software architecture and documentation affect a platform's customizability and openness to external innovators, thus affecting developer productivity. Malawi Point of Care (POC) Electronic Medical Records System (EMRS) follows some architectural design standards, but it lacks third-party innovators and is difficult to customize as compared to CommCare and District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2). Improving software architecture and documentation for the Malawi POC will increase productivity and third-party contributions. A conceptual framework based on Generativity and Boundary Resource Model (BRM) was used to compare the three platforms. Interviews, observations, and document analysis were used to collect primary and secondary data. Themes were found by analyzing qualitative and quantitative data, which led to the following results. Configurable, flexible, and cross-platform software platforms and the availability of interfaces (Boundary Resources) that let internal and external developers interact with the platform's core functionality, hence boosting developer productivity. Furthermore, documentation increases developer productivity, while its absence inhibits the use of resources. The study suggests that the architecture and openness of the Malawi POC EMR software platform will be improved by standardizing web application program interfaces (APIs) and making interfaces that can be changed by the user. In addition, increasing the availability of documentation and training will improve the use of boundary resources, thus improving internal and third-party development productivity.

Keywords: health systems, configurable platforms, software architecture, software documentation, software development productivity

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Authors: Meza-Quintero Myriam, Lobo Torrado Katty Andrea, Sanchez Picon Yesenia, Hurtado-Lugo Naudin

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The objective of the study was to evaluate the internal and external quality of the egg in the three production housing systems: floor, cage, and grazing of laying birds of the Isa Brown line, in the laying period between weeks 35 to 41; 135 hens distributed in 3 treatments of 45 birds per repetition were used (the replicas were the seven weeks of the trial). The feeding treatment supplied in the floor and cage systems contained 114 g/bird/day; for the grazing system, 14 grams less concentrate was provided. Nine eggs were collected to be studied and analyzed in the animal nutrition laboratory (3 eggs per housing system). The random statistical model was implemented: for the statistical analysis of the data, the statistical software of IBM® Statistical Products and Services Solution (SPSS) version 2.3 was used. The evaluation and follow-up instruments were the vernier caliper for the measurement in millimeters, a YolkFan™16 from Roche DSM for the evaluation of the egg yolk pigmentation, a digital scale for the measurement in grams, a micrometer for the measurement in millimeters and evaluation in the laboratory using dry matter, ashes, and ethereal extract. The results suggested that equivalent to the size of the egg (0.04 ± 3.55) and the thickness of the shell (0.46 ± 3.55), where P-Value> 0.05 was obtained, weight albumen (0.18 ± 3.55), albumen height (0.38 ± 3.55), yolk weight (0.64 ± 3.55), yolk height (0.54 ± 3.55) and for yolk pigmentation (1.23 ± 3.55). It was concluded that the hens in the three production systems, floor, cage, and grazing, did not show significant statistical differences in the internal and external quality of the chicken in the parameters studied egg for the production system.

Keywords: biological, territories, genetic resource, egg

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Authors: Nik Smits, Stijn Goeminne

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Despite the extensive literature on the relation between crime and migration, not much is known about how crime affects the tax capacity of local communities. This paper empirically investigates whether the Flemish local income tax base yield is sensitive to changes in the local crime level. The underlying assumptions are threefold. In a Tiebout world, rational voters holding the local government accountable for the safety of its citizens, move out when the local level of security gets too much alienated from what they want it to be (first assumption). If migration is due to crime, then the more wealthy citizens are expected to move first (second assumption). Looking for a place elsewhere implies transaction costs, which the more wealthy citizens are more likely to be able to pay. As a consequence, the average income per capita and so the income distribution will be affected, which in turn, will influence the local income tax base yield (third assumption). The decreasing average income per capita, if not compensated by increasing earnings by the citizens that are staying or by the new citizens entering the locality, must result in a decreasing local income tax base yield. In the absence of a higher level governments’ compensation, decreasing local tax revenues could prove to be disastrous for a crime-ridden municipality. When communities do not succeed in forcing back the number of offences, this can be the onset of a cumulative process of urban deterioration. A spatial panel data model containing several proxies for the local level of crime in 306 Flemish municipalities covering the period 2000-2014 is used to test the relation between crime and the local income tax base yield. In addition to this direct relation, the underlying assumptions are investigated as well. Preliminary results show a modest, but positive relation between local violent crime rates and the efflux of citizens, persistent up until a 2 year lag. This positive effect is dampened by possible increasing crime rates in neighboring municipalities. The change in violent crimes -and to a lesser extent- thefts and extortions reduce the influx of citizens with a one year lag. Again this effect is diminished by external effects from neighboring municipalities, meaning that increasing crime rates in neighboring municipalities (especially violent crimes) have a positive effect on the local influx of citizens. Crime also has a depressing effect on the average income per capita within a municipality, whereas increasing crime rates in neighboring municipalities increase it. Notwithstanding the previous results, crime does not seem to significantly affect the local tax base yield. The results suggest that the depressing effect of crime on the income basis has to be compensated by a limited, but a wealthier influx of new citizens.

Keywords: crime, local taxes, migration, Tiebout mobility

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Construction projects are complex and often subject to significant cost overruns due to the multifaceted nature of the activities involved. Accurate cost estimation is crucial for effective budget planning and resource allocation. Traditional methods for predicting overruns often rely on expert judgment or analysis of historical data, which can be time-consuming, subjective, and may fail to consider important factors. However, with the increasing availability of data from construction projects, machine learning techniques can be leveraged to improve the accuracy of overrun predictions. This study applied machine learning algorithms to enhance the prediction of cost overruns in a case study of a construction project. The methodology involved the development and evaluation of two machine learning models: Random Forest and Neural Networks. Random Forest can handle high-dimensional data, capture complex relationships, and provide feature importance estimates. Neural Networks, particularly Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), are capable of automatically learning and modeling complex, non-linear relationships between input features and the target variable. These models can adapt to new data, reduce human bias, and uncover hidden patterns in the dataset. The findings of this study demonstrate that both Random Forest and Neural Networks can significantly improve the accuracy of cost overrun predictions compared to traditional methods. The Random Forest model also identified key cost drivers and risk factors, such as changes in the scope of work and delays in material delivery, which can inform better project risk management. However, the study acknowledges several limitations. First, the findings are based on a single construction project, which may limit the generalizability of the results to other projects or contexts. Second, the dataset, although comprehensive, may not capture all relevant factors influencing cost overruns, such as external economic conditions or political factors. Third, the study focuses primarily on cost overruns, while schedule overruns are not explicitly addressed. Future research should explore the application of machine learning techniques to a broader range of projects, incorporate additional data sources, and investigate the prediction of both cost and schedule overruns simultaneously.

Keywords: cost prediction, machine learning, project management, random forest, neural networks

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Authors: Edoghogho Ogbeifun, Charles Mbohwa, J. H. C. Pretorius

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Several research report on the factors responsible for the delays in the completion of construction projects has identified the issue of funding as a critical factor; insufficient funding, low cash-flow or lack of funds. Indeed, adequate funding plays pivotal role in the effective execution of construction projects. In the last twenty years (or so), there has been increase in the funds available for infrastructure development in tertiary institution in Nigeria, especially, through the Tertiary Education Trust Fund. This funding body ensures that there is enough fund for each approved project, which is released in three stages during the life of the construction project. However, a random tour of many of the institutions reveals striking evidence of projects not delivered on schedule, to quality and sometime out rightly abandoned. This suggests, therefore, that there are other latent factors, responsible for project delays, that should be investigated. Thus, this research, a pilot scheme, is aimed at unearthing the possible reasons for the delays being experienced in the execution of construction projects for infrastructure upgrade in public tertiary institutions in Nigeria, funded by Tertiary Education Trust Fund. The multiple site case study of qualitative research was adopted. The respondents were the Directors of Physical Planning and the Directors of Works of four Nigerian Public Universities. The findings reveal that delays can be situated within three entities, namely, the funding body, the institutions and others. Therefore, the emerging factors have been classified as external factors (haven to do with the funding body), internal factors (these concern the operations within the institutions) and general factors. The outcome of this pilot exercise provides useful information to guide the Directors as they interact with the funding body as well as challenges themselves to address the loopholes in their internal operations.

Keywords: delays, external factors, funding, general factors, Internal factors

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Authors: Irina Mizeva, Elena Potapova, Viktor Dremin, Mikhail Mezentsev, Valeri Shupletsov

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The local tissue perfusion is regulated by the microvascular tone which is under the control of a number of physiological mechanisms. Laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF) together with wavelet analyses is the most commonly used technique to study the regulatory mechanisms of cutaneous microcirculation. External factors such as temperature, local pressure of the probe on the skin, etc. influence on the blood flow characteristics and are used as physiological tests to evaluate microvascular regulatory mechanisms. Local probe pressure influences on the microcirculation parameters measured by optical methods: diffuse reflectance spectroscopy, fluorescence spectroscopy, and LDF. Therefore, further study of probe pressure effects can be useful to improve the reliability of optical measurement. During pressure tests variation of the mean perfusion measured by means of LDF usually is estimated. An additional information concerning the physiological mechanisms of the vascular tone regulation system in response to local pressure can be obtained using spectral analyses of LDF samples. The aim of the present work was to develop protocol and algorithm of data processing appropriate for study physiological response to the local pressure test. Involving 6 subjects (20±2 years) and providing 5 measurements for every subject we estimated intersubject and-inter group variability of response of both averaged and oscillating parts of the LDF sample on external surface pressure. The final purpose of the work was to find special features which further can be used in wider clinic studies. The cutaneous perfusion measurements were carried out by LAKK-02 (SPE LAZMA Ltd., Russia), the skin loading was provided by the originally designed device which allows one to distribute the pressure around the LDF probe. The probe was installed on the dorsal part of the distal finger of the index figure. We collected measurements continuously for one hour and varied loading from 0 to 180mmHg stepwise with a step duration of 10 minutes. Further, we post-processed the samples using the wavelet transform and traced the energy of oscillations in five frequency bands over time. Weak loading leads to pressure-induced vasodilation, so one should take into account that the perfusion measured under pressure conditions will be overestimated. On the other hand, we revealed a decrease in endothelial associated fluctuations. Further loading (88 mmHg) induces amplification of pulsations in all frequency bands. We assume that such loading leads to a higher number of closed capillaries, higher input of arterioles in the LDF signal and as a consequence more vivid oscillations which mainly are formed in arterioles. External pressure higher than 144 mmHg leads to the decrease of oscillating components, after removing the loading very rapid restore of the tissue perfusion takes place. In this work, we have demonstrated that local skin loading influence on the microcirculation parameters measured by optic technique; this should be taken into account while developing portable electronic devices. The proposed protocol of local loading allows one to evaluate PIV as far as to trace dynamic of blood flow oscillations. This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation under project N 18-15-00201.

Keywords: blood microcirculation, laser Doppler flowmetry, pressure-induced vasodilation, wavelet analyses blood

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Authors: Tan Swee Liang

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This paper estimates bank and stock market efficiency associations with real per capita GDP growth by examining panel-data across three different regions using Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) regression developed by Beck and Katz (1995). Data from five economies in ASEAN (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Indonesia), five economies in Asia (Japan, China, Hong Kong SAR, South Korea, and India) and seven economies in OECD (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom U.K., and United States U.S.), between 1990 and 2017 are used. Empirical findings suggest one, for Asia-5 high bank net interest margin means greater bank profitability, hence spurring economic growth. Two, for OECD-7 low bank overhead costs (as a share of total assets) may reflect weak competition and weak investment in providing superior banking services, hence dampening economic growth. Three, stock market turnover ratio has negative association with OECD-7 economic growth, but a positive association with Asia-5, which suggest the relationship between liquidity and growth is ambiguous. Lastly, for ASEAN-5 high bank overhead costs (as a share of total assets) may suggest expenses have not been channelled efficiently to income generating activities. One practical implication of the findings is that policy makers should take necessary measures toward financial liberalisation policies that boost growth through the efficiency channel, so that funds are efficiently allocated through the financial system between financial and real sectors.

Keywords: financial development, banking system, capital markets, economic growth

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Authors: Epaminondas G. Kyriakidis, Theodosis D. Dimitrakos, Constantinos C. Karamatsoukis

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The vehicle routing problem (VRP) is a well-known problem in Operations Research and has been widely studied during the last fifty-five years. The context of the VRP is that of delivering or collecting products to or from customers who are scattered in a geographical area and have placed orders for these products. A vehicle or a fleet of vehicles start their routes from a depot and visit the customers in order to satisfy their demands. Special attention has been given to the capacitated VRP in which the vehicles have limited carrying capacity for the goods that are delivered or collected. In the present work, we present a specific capacitated stochastic vehicle routing problem which has many realistic applications. We develop and analyze a mathematical model for a specific vehicle routing problem in which a vehicle starts its route from a depot and visits N customers according to a particular sequence in order to collect from them two similar but not identical products. We name these products, product 1 and product 2. Each customer possesses items either of product 1 or product 2 with known probabilities. The number of the items of product 1 or product 2 that each customer possesses is a discrete random variable with known distribution. The actual quantity and the actual type of product that each customer possesses are revealed only when the vehicle arrives at the customer’s site. It is assumed that the vehicle has two compartments. We name these compartments, compartment 1 and compartment 2. It is assumed that compartment 1 is suitable for loading product 1 and compartment 2 is suitable for loading product 2. However, it is permitted to load items of product 1 into compartment 2 and items of product 2 into compartment 1. These actions cause costs that are due to extra labor. The vehicle is allowed during its route to return to the depot to unload the items of both products. The travel costs between consecutive customers and the travel costs between the customers and the depot are known. The objective is to find the optimal routing strategy, i.e. the routing strategy that minimizes the total expected cost among all possible strategies for servicing all customers. It is possible to develop a suitable dynamic programming algorithm for the determination of the optimal routing strategy. It is also possible to prove that the optimal routing strategy has a specific threshold-type strategy. Specifically, it is shown that for each customer the optimal actions are characterized by some critical integers. This structural result enables us to design a special-purpose dynamic programming algorithm that operates only over these strategies having this structural property. Extensive numerical results provide strong evidence that the special-purpose dynamic programming algorithm is considerably more efficient than the initial dynamic programming algorithm. Furthermore, if we consider the same problem without the assumption that the customers are ordered, numerical experiments indicate that the optimal routing strategy can be computed if N is smaller or equal to eight.

Keywords: dynamic programming, similar products, stochastic demands, stochastic preferences, vehicle routing problem

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Authors: Rui Brito

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This contribution regards a literature review of inventory management that is a relevant topic for the firms, due to its important use of capital with implications in firm’s profitability within the complexity of a more competitive and globalized world. Firms look for small inventories in order to reduce holding costs, namely opportunity cost, warehousing and handling costs, deterioration and being out of style, but larger inventories are required by some reasons, such as customer service, ordering cost, transportation cost, supplier’s payment to reduce unit costs or to take advantage of price increase in the near future, and equipment setup cost. Thus, management shall address a trade-off between small inventories and larger inventories. This literature review concerns three types of inventory (spare parts, safety stock, and vendor) whose management usually is beyond the scope of logistics. The applied methodology consisted of an online search of databases regarding scientific documents in English, namely Elsevier, Springer, Emerald, Wiley, and Taylor & Francis, but excluding books except if edited, using search engines, such as Google Scholar and B-on. The search was based on three keywords/strings (themes) which had to be included just as in the article title, suggesting themes were very relevant to the researchers. The whole search period was between 2009 and 2018 with the aim of collecting between twenty and forty studies considered relevant within each of the key words/strings specified. Documents were sorted by relevance and to prevent the exclusion of the more recent articles, based on lower quantity of citations partially due to less time to be cited in new research articles, the search period was divided into two sub-periods (2009-2015 and 2016-2018). The number of surveyed articles by theme showed a variation from 40 to 200 and the number of citations of those articles showed a wider variation from 3 to 216. Selected articles from the three themes were analyzed and the first seven of the first sub-period and the first three of the second sub-period with more citations were read in full to make a synopsis of each article. Overall, the findings show that the majority of article types were models, namely mathematical, although with different sub-types for each theme. Almost all articles suggest further studies, with some mentioning it for their own author(s), which widen the diversity of the previous research. Identified research gaps concern the use of surveys to know which are the models more used by firms, the reasons for not using the models with more performance and accuracy, and which are the satisfaction levels with the outcomes of the inventories management and its effect on the improvement of the firm’s overall performance. The review ends with the limitations and contributions of the study.

Keywords: inventory management, safety stock, spare parts inventory, vendor managed inventory

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Authors: Farhad Farahvash, Parya Mobaseri

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Weeds control based on their critical period leads to less production costs and risks of wide chemical application of weeds control methods. The present study considered effect of weeds control time (weeds interference after 20, 40 and 60 days, weeds full control, weeds interference and weeds control after 20, 40 and 60 days) on growth and yield of forage maize 454. The experiment based on full-randomized blocks design with three replications was conducted at research farm of Islamic Azad University of Tabriz located at 15th km of East Tabriz in 2013. According to the results, weeds interference after 40 and 60 days as well as weeds control after 20 days prevented from decrease of maize biomass resulted from weeds presence while weeds interference after 20 days, weeds interference and weeds control after 40 and 60 days led respectively to 41.2%, 35%, 25% and 32.5% decrease of forage maize biomass. The weeds-influenced decrease was manifested at different parts of the plant depending on presence period of weeds. Decrease of fresh weight of ear and fresh weight of leaf and stem was observed due to weeds interference after 20 days and weeds interference. If weeds are controlled after 60 days, decrease of ear weight and fresh weight of stem will lead to biomass decrease. Also, if weeds are controlled after 40 days, decrease of fresh weight of maize stems will result in biomass decrease. Ear traits were affected by weeds control treatment. Being affected by treatments of weeds interference after 20 days, weeds non-interference, weeds control after 40 and 60 days, ear length was shortened 29.9 %, 41.4 %, 27.6 % and 37.2 %, respectively. The stem diameter demonstrated a significant decrease although it was only affected by treatments of weeds interference and weeds control after 60 days. Considering results of the present study, generally, it is suggested to control weeds during initial 20-60 days of maize growth in order to prevent undesirable effect of weeds on growth, production and production biomass of maize and decrease of production costs.

Keywords: maize, competition, weed, biomass

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Authors: Hanen Bouaziz, Françoise Croute, Najiba Zeghal

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In order to investigate the toxic effects of fluoride on cerebrum maturity of suckling mice, we treated adult female mice of Swiss Albinos strain by 500 ppm NaF in their drinking water from the 15th day of pregnancy until the day 14 after delivery. All mice were sacrificed on day 14 after parturition. During treatment, levels of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances, the marker of lipid peroxidation extend, increased, while the activities of the antioxidant enzymes such as glutathione peroxidase, superoxide dismutase and catalase and the level of glutathione decreased significantly in cerebellum compared with those of the control group. These results suggested that fluoride enhanced oxidative stress, thereby disturbing the antioxidant defense of nursing pups. In addition, acetylcholinesterase activity in cerebellum was inhibited after treatment with fluoride. In cerebellum of mice, migration of neurons from the external granular layer to the internal granular layer occurred postnatally. Key guidance signals to these migrating neurons were provided by laminin, an extracellular matrix protein fixed to the surface of astrocytes. In the present study, we examined the expression and distribution of laminin in cerebellum of 14-day-old mice. Immunoreactive laminin was disappeared by postnatal day 14 in cerebellum parenchyma of control pups and was restricted to vasculature despite the continued presence of granular cells in the external granular layer. In contrast, in cerebellum of NaF treated pups, laminin was deposited in organised punctuate clusters in the molecular layer. These data indicated that the disruption of laminin distribution might play a major role in the profound derangement of neuronal migration observed in cerebellum of NaF treated pups.

Keywords: acetylcholinesterase activity, cerebellum, laminin, oxidative stress, suckling mice

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Authors: Jaber Shurrab, Matloub Hussain

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The rapid pace of changes in the construction industry, technological advancements, and rising costs present tremendous challenges for project managers. Project managers are under severe pressure to minimize the waste, improve the efficiency of the entire operations and the philosophy of ‘lean thinking’ so that ‘more could be achieved with less’ is becoming very popular. Though, lean management has strong roots in manufacturing industry and over the last decade lean philosophy has started gaining attention in the service industry as well. However, little has been known in the context of waste minimization and lean implementation in the construction industry and this paper deals with this important issue. The primary objective of this paper is to propose a conceptual framework for the exploration of appropriate lean techniques applicable to medium and large construction companies and measure their impact on the competitiveness and economic performance of construction companies of United Arab Emirates (UAE). To this end, a comprehensive literature review and interviews with eight project managers of medium and large construction companies of UAE have been conducted. It has been found that competitive, reduce waste and costs are critical to the construction industry. This is an ongoing research in lean management, giving project managers a practical framework for improving the efficiency of their project through various lean techniques. Originality/value: Research significance emphasizes increasing the effectiveness of the construction industry, influences the development of lean construction framework which improves lean construction practices using the lean techniques. This contributes to the effort of applying lean techniques in the construction industry. Limited publications were done in the construction industry mainly in United Arab Emirates (UAE) compared to the lean manufacturing. This research will recommend a systematic approach for the implementing of the anticipated framework within a cyclical look-ahead period and emphasizes the practical implications of the proposed approach.

Keywords: construction, lean, lean manufacturing, waste

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Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Yi-Shiuan Chen

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The paper presented a sustainable design model for integrated evaluation of the design and supply chain of a product for the sustainable objectives. To design a product, there can be alternative ways to assign the detailed specifications to fulfill the same design objectives. In the design alternative cases, different material and manufacturing processes with various supply chain activities may be required for the production. Therefore, it is required to evaluate the different design cases based on the sustainable objectives. In this research, a closed-loop design model is developed by integrating the forward design model and reverse design model. From the supply chain point of view, the decisions in the forward design model are connected with the forward supply chain. The decisions in the reverse design model are connected with the reverse supply chain considering the sustainable objectives. The purpose of this research is to develop a mathematical model for analyzing the design cases by integrated evaluating the criteria in the closed-loop design and the closed-loop supply chain. The decision variables are built to represent the design cases of the forward design and reverse design. The cost parameters in a forward design include the costs of material and manufacturing processes. The cost parameters in a reverse design include the costs of recycling, disassembly, reusing, remanufacturing, and disposing. The mathematical model is formulated to minimize the total cost under the design constraints. In practical applications, the decisions of the mathematical model can be used for selecting a design case for the purpose of sustainable design of a product. An example product is demonstrated in the paper. The test result shows that the sustainable design model is useful for integrated evaluation of the design and the supply chain to achieve the sustainable objectives.

Keywords: closed-loop design, closed-loop supply chain, design evaluation, supply chain management, sustainable design model

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Authors: Amy Guidera, Steven Busby, Christian Williams, David Phillippi

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College students are a priority preventative healthcare population that can engage in high-risk behaviors which may concurrently increase the potential for unsafe sexual practices, including contracting sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Early education, screening, treatment, and partner notification are important interventions for breaking the chain of transmission and recurrence in relation to preventing poor health outcomes and mitigating college dropout rates. The aim of this quality improvement project was to determine if the reduction in STI screening costs for college students (aged 18-30 years old) would increase the amount of STI screenings conducted at a university health center over the course of an academic semester while evaluating our ability to achieve an improved quality of care at a reduced cost, along with improved STI reporting and documentation. This study was conducted through retrospective chart reviews of STI-related visits and utilized the RADAR matrix to provide a guiding, iterative mechanism to continuously reassess goals and outcomes defined in a memorandum of agreement (MOA) between a university health center and the state department of health (DOH) laboratory. The project failed to increase the amount of STI screenings, most likely due to the emergence of COVID-19, but resulted in improved quality of care for students, improved STI-related visit documentation and reporting, and significantly reduced costs for STI screening for collegiate students at a southeastern private university campus.

Keywords: college health, college students, preventive health, reproductive health, sexually transmitted infections, young adults

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Authors: Robert Pellerin, Michel Gamache, Remi Trudeau, Nathalie Perrier

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The context of large engineering projects is particularly favorable to the appearance of engineering changes and contractual modifications. These elements are potential causes for claims. In this paper, we investigate one of the critical components of the claim management process: the calculation of the impacts of changes in terms of losses of productivity due to the need to accelerate some project activities. When project changes are initiated, delays can arise. Indeed, project activities are often executed in fast-tracking in an attempt to respect the completion date. But the acceleration of project execution and the resulting rework can entail important costs as well as induce productivity losses. In the past, numerous methods have been proposed to quantify the duration of delays, the gains achieved by project acceleration, and the loss of productivity. The calculation related to those changes can be divided into two categories: direct cost and indirect cost. The direct cost is easily quantifiable as opposed to indirect costs which are rarely taken into account during the calculation of the cost of an engineering change or contract modification despite several research projects have been made on this subject. However, proposed models have not been accepted by companies yet, nor they have been accepted in court. Those models require extensive data and are often seen as too specific to be used for all projects. These techniques are also ignoring the resource constraints and the interdependencies between the causes of delays and the delays themselves. To resolve this issue, this research proposes a simulation model that mimics how major engineering changes or contract modifications are handled in large construction projects. The model replicates the use of overtime in a reactive scheduling mode in order to simulate the loss of productivity present when a project change occurs. Multiple tests were conducted to compare the results of the proposed simulation model with statistical analysis conducted by other researchers. Different scenarios were also conducted in order to determine the impact the number of activities, the time of occurrence of the change, the availability of resources, and the type of project changes on productivity loss. Our results demonstrate that the number of activities in the project is a critical variable influencing the productivity of a project. When changes occur, the presence of a large number of activities leads to a much lower productivity loss than a small number of activities. The speed of reducing productivity for 30-job projects is about 25 percent faster than the reduction speed for 120-job projects. The moment of occurrence of a change also shows a significant impact on productivity. Indeed, the sooner the change occurs, the lower the productivity of the labor force. The availability of resources also impacts the productivity of a project when a change is implemented. There is a higher loss of productivity when the amount of resources is restricted.

Keywords: engineering changes, indirect costs overtime, productivity, scheduling, simulation

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