Search results for: South African foreign policy

Authors: Ojochenemi J. Onubi, Debbi Marais, Lorna Aucott, Friday Okonofua, Amudha Poobalan

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Background: Obesity is a worldwide epidemic with major health and economic consequences. Pregnancy is a trigger point for the development of obesity, and maternal obesity is associated with significant adverse effects in the mother and child. Nigeria is experiencing a double burden of under- and over-nutrition with rising levels of obesity particularly in women. However, there is scarcity of data on maternal obesity in Nigeria and other African countries. Aims and Objectives: This project aimed at identifying crucial components of potential interventions for maternal obesity in Nigeria. The objectives were to assess the prevalence, effects, and distribution of maternal obesity; knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) of pregnant women and maternal healthcare providers; and identify existing interventions for maternal obesity in Nigeria. Methodology: A systematic review and meta-analysis were initially conducted to appraise the existing literature on maternal obesity in Africa. Following this, a quantitative questionnaire survey of the KAP of pregnant women and a qualitative interview study of the KAP of Health Care Workers (HCW) were conducted in seven secondary and tertiary hospitals across Nigeria. Quantitative data was analysed using SPSS statistical software, while thematic analysis was conducted for qualitative data. Results: Twenty-nine studies included in the systematic review showed significant prevalence, socio-demographic associations, and adverse effects of maternal obesity on labour, maternal, and child outcomes in Africa. The questionnaire survey of 435 mothers revealed a maternal obesity prevalence of 17.9% among mothers who registered for antenatal care in the first trimester. The mothers received nutrition information from different sources and had insufficient knowledge of their own weight category or recommended Gestational Weight Gain (GWG), causes, complications, and safe ways to manage maternal obesity. However, majority of the mothers were of the opinion that excess GWG is avoided in pregnancy and some practiced weight management (diet and exercise) during pregnancy. For the qualitative study, four main themes were identified: ‘Concerns about obesity in pregnancy’, ‘Barriers to care for obese pregnant women’, ‘Practice of care for obese pregnant women’, and ‘Improving care for obese pregnant women’. HCW expressed concerns about rising levels of maternal obesity, lack of guidelines for the management of obese pregnant women and worries about unintended consequences of antenatal interventions. ‘Barriers’ included lack of contact with obese women before pregnancy, late registration for antenatal care, and perceived maternal barriers such as socio-cultural beliefs of mothers and poverty. ‘Practice’ included anticipatory care and screening for possible complications, general nutrition education during antenatal care and interdisciplinary care for mothers with complications. HCW offered suggestions on improving care for obese women including timing, type, and settings of interventions; and the need for involvement of other stake holders in caring for obese pregnant women. Conclusions: Culturally adaptable/sensitive interventions should be developed for the management of obese pregnant women in Africa. Education and training of mothers and health care workers, and provision of guidelines are some of the components of potential interventions in Nigeria.

Keywords: Africa, maternal, obesity, pregnancy

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Authors: Daniel Barkley, Jianyi Zhu

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This study investigates base salary differentials and gender equity among university presidents across 427 U.S. colleges and universities. While endowments typically do not directly determine university presidents' base salaries, our analysis reveals a noteworthy pattern: endowments explain more than half of the variance in female university presidents' base salaries, compared to a mere 0.69 percent for males. Moreover, female presidents' base salaries tend to rise much faster than male base salaries with increasing university endowments. This disparate impact of endowments on base salaries implies an endowment threshold for achieving gender pay equity. We develop an analytical model predicting an endowment threshold for achieving gender equality and empirically estimate this equity threshold using data from over 427 institutions. Surprisingly, the fields of science and athletics have emerged as sources of gender-neutral base pay. Both male and female university presidents with STEM backgrounds command higher base salaries than those without such qualifications. Additionally, presidents of universities affiliated with Power 5 conferences consistently receive higher base salaries regardless of gender. Consistent with the theory of human capital accumulation, the duration of the university presidency incrementally raises base salaries for both genders but at a diminishing rate. Curiously, prior administrative leadership experience as a vice president, provost, dean, or department chair does not significantly influence base salaries for either gender. By providing empirical evidence and analytical models predicting an endowment threshold for achieving gender equality in base salaries, the study offers valuable insights for policymakers, university administrators, and other stakeholders. These findings hold crucial policy implications, informing strategies to promote gender equality in executive compensation within higher education institutions.

Keywords: higher education, endowments, base salaries, university presidents

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Authors: Najeeb Hassan, Mahmudur Rahman

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Arial Khan River is one of the main south-eastward outlets of the River Padma. This river maintains a meander channel through its course and is erosional in nature. The specific objective of the research is to study and evaluate the hydrological characteristics in the form of assessing changes of cross-sections, discharge, water level and velocity profile in different stations and to create a hydrodynamic model of the Arial Khan River. Necessary data have been collected from Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) and Center for Environment and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS). Satellite images have been observed from Google earth. In this study, hydrodynamic model of Arial Khan River has been developed using well known steady open channel flow code Hydrologic Engineering Centers and River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) using field surveyed geometric data. Cross-section properties at 22 locations of River Arial Khan for the years 2011, 2013 and 2015 were also analysed. 1-D HEC-RAS model has been developed using the cross sectional data of 2015 and appropriate boundary condition is being used to run the model. This Arial Khan River model is calibrated using the pick discharge of 2015. The applicable value of Mannings roughness coefficient (n) is adjusted through the process of calibration. The value of water level which ties with the observed data to an acceptable accuracy is taken as calibrated model. The 1-D HEC-RAS model then validated by using the pick discharges from 2009-2018. Variation in observed water level in the model and collected water level data is being compared to validate the model. It is observed that due to seasonal variation, discharge of the river changes rapidly and Mannings roughness coefficient (n) also changes due to the vegetation growth along the river banks. This river model may act as a tool to measure flood area in future. By considering the past pick flow discharge, it is strongly recommended to improve the carrying capacity of Arial Khan River to protect the surrounding areas from flash flood.

Keywords: BWDB, CEGIS, HEC-RAS

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Authors: Uche Lucy Onyekwelu, Uche B. Ugwuanyi

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Suffice to say that socio-economic disruptions of any form is likely to affect the wellbeing of the citizenry. The upsurge of social disequilibrium caused by the incessant disruptive tendencies exhibited by youths and some others in Nigeria are not helping matters. In Nigeria the social unrest has caused different forms of draw backs in Socio Economic Development. This study has empirically evaluated the impact of insecurity and insurgency on the Economic Development of Nigeria. The paper noted that the different forms of insecurity in Nigeria are namely: Insurgency and Banditry as witnessed in Northern Nigeria; Militancy: Niger Delta area and self-determination groups pursuing various forms of agenda such as Sit –at- Home Syndrome in the South Eastern Nigeria and other secessionist movements. All these have in one way or the other hampered Economic development in Nigeria. Data for this study were collected through primary and secondary sources using questionnaire and some existing documentations. Cost of investment in different aspects of security outfits in Nigeria represents the independent variable while the differentials in the Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and Human Development Index(HDI) are the measures of the dependent variable. Descriptive statistics and Simple Linear Regression analytical tool were employed in the data analysis. The result revealed that Insurgency/Insecurity negatively affect the economic development of the different parts of Nigeria. Following the findings, a model to analyse the effect of insecurity and insurgency was developed, named INSECUREDEVNIG. It implies that the economic development of Nigeria will continue to deteriorate if insurgency and insecurity continue. The study therefore recommends that the government should do all it could to nurture its human capital, adequately fund the state security apparatus and employ individuals of high integrity to manage the various security outfits in Nigeria. The government should also as a matter of urgency train the security personnel in intelligence cum Information and Communications Technology to enable them ensure the effectiveness of implementation of security policies needed to sustain Gross Domestic Product and Human Capital Index of Nigeria.

Keywords: insecurity, insurgency, gross domestic product, human development index, Nigeria

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Authors: S. K. Kakraliya, R. D. Jat, H. S. Jat, P. C. Sharma, M. L. Jat

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The traditional rice-wheat (RW) system in the IGP of South Asia is tillage, water, energy, and capital intensive. Coupled with more pumping of groundwater over the years to meet the high irrigation water requirement of the RW system has resulted in over-exploitation of groundwater. Replacement of traditional rice with less water crops such as maize under climate-smart agriculture (CSA) based management (tillage, crop establishment and residue management) practices are required to promote sustainable intensification. Furthermore, inefficient nutrient management practices are responsible for low crop yields and nutrient use efficiencies in maize-wheat (MW) system. A 7-year field experiment was conducted in farmer’s participatory strategic research mode at Taraori, Karnal, India to evaluate the effects of tillage and crop establishment (TCE) methods, residue management, mungbean integration, and nutrient management practices on crop yields, water productivity and profitability of MW system. The main plot treatments included four combinations of TCE, residue and mungbean integration [conventional tillage (CT), conventional tillage with mungbean (CT + MB), permanent bed (PB) and permanent bed with MB (PB + MB] with three nutrient management practices [farmer’s fertilizer practice (FFP), recommended dose of fertilizer (RDF) and site-specific nutrient management (SSNM)] using Nutrient Expert® as subplot treatments. System productivity, water use efficiency (WUE) and net returns under PB + MB were significantly increased by 25–30%, 28–31% and 35–40% compared to CT respectively, during seven years of experimentation. The integration of MB in MW system contributed ~25and ~ 28% increases in system productivity and net returns compared with no MB, respectively. SSNM based nutrient management increased the mean (averaged across 7 yrs) system productivity by 12- 15% compared with FFP. The study revealed that CSA based sustainable intensification (PB + MB) and SSNM approach provided opportunities for enhancing crop productivity, WUE and profitability of the MW system in India.

Keywords: Conservation Agriculture, Precision water and nutrient management, Permanent beds, Crop yields

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Authors: Vijaya Nhaloor, Suja Kumari Leela, Jose Devadasan

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Planning of neighbourhood development strategies in Tier 2 Indian city is highly significant when it has also been selected as a Smart city by the Ministry of Urban Development in India. Smart city mission of India proposes the development of infrastructure in a city in an inclusive way. Thiruvananthapuram, the capital city of Kerala state, India, has been selected as the city to conduct the research. The master plan for the city of Thiruvananthapuram envisions it as a Compact city and proposes densification as a tool for development. Densification may adversely affect the quality of life after a tipping point. This may lead to urban decay which in turn directly or indirectly affects the surrounding neighbourhoods also, thus spreading blight areas in the city. The author thinks that density in urban planning is not a well detailed subject in India, with respect to its varied links on infrastructure, quality of life, transportation, scope of vertical planning, affordability etc. Neighbourhoods are vital tissues of an urban area, and their development directly affects the development of the region. The methodology would involve skimming of proactive neighbourhood planning principles compatible with the Smart city mission in India. United Nations proposes sustainability as a way of planning development of a neighbourhood. After defining various terminologies involved, a framework shall be developed to analyse an existing neighbourhood and prepare planning guidelines in a sustainable manner. The framework shall comply with international and national policy guidelines. The research shall explore and identify a neighbourhood with the potential to meet the housing demand from the investment regions nearby and analyse its potential and weakness as per this framework. Later, a set of indicators shall be enlisted to guide the development of the neighbourhood, leading to recommendations that shall serve as a replicable model for the other neighbourhoods in the Smart city.

Keywords: key indicators, neighbourhood planning, sustainability, smart city

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Authors: Rosalina Penaloza, Joanna Navarro, Pauline Jolly, Anna Junkins, Carlos Seas, Larissa Otero

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Background: Tuberculosis (TB) case detection in Peru relies on passive case finding. This strategy relies on the assumption that the community is aware that a persistent cough is a possible symptom of TB and that formal health care needs to be sought. Despite its importance, health knowledge specific to TB is underexplored in Peru. This study aimed to assess health literacy and level of TB knowledge among outpatients attending a referral hospital in Lima, Peru. The goal was to ascertain knowledge gaps in key areas relating to TB, to identify and prioritize subgroups for intervention, and to provide insight for policy and community interventions considering health literacy. Methods: An observational cross-sectional study was conducted using a survey to measure sociodemographic factors, tuberculosis knowledge, and health literacy. Bivariate and Multivariate logistic regression was performed to study the associations between variables and to account for potential confounders. The study was conducted at Hospital Cayetano Heredia in Lima, Peru from June – August 2017. Results: 272 participants were included in the analysis. 57.7% knew someone who had had TB before, 9% had had TB in the past. Two weeks a cough was correctly identified as a symptom that could be TB by 69.1%. High TB knowledge was found among 149 (54.8%) participants. High health literacy was found among 193 (71.0%) participants. Health literacy and TB knowledge were not significantly associated (OR 0.9 (95%CI 0.5-1.5)). After controlling for sex, age, district, education, health insurance, frequency of hospital visits and previous TB diagnosis: High TB knowledge was associated with knowing someone with TB (aOR 2.7 (95%CI 1.6-4.7)) and being a public transport driver, (aOR 0.2 (95%CI 0.05-0.9)). Not being poor was the single factor associated with high health literacy (aOR 3.8 (95%CI 1.6-8.9)). Conclusions: TB knowledge was fair, though 30% did not know the most important symptom of TB. Tailoring educational strategies to risk groups may enhance passive case detection especially amongst transport workers in Lima, Peru.

Keywords: health literacy, Peru, tuberculosis, tuberculosis knowledge

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Authors: Mattia Testuzza

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Public health is a social endeavour, which involves many different actors: from extremely stratified, structured health systems to unofficial networks of people and knowledge. Health and diseases are an intertwined individual and social experiences. Both patients and health workers navigate this public space through relations of trust. Trust in healthcare goes from the personal trust between a patient and her/his doctor to the trust of both the patient and the health worker in the medical knowledge and the healthcare system. Trust it is not a given, but it is continuously negotiated, given and gained. The key to understand these essential relations of trust in health is to recognise them as a social practice, which therefore implies agency and power. In these terms, health is constantly public and made public, as trust emerges as a meaningfully political phenomenon. Trust as a power relation can be observed at play in the implementation of public health policies such as the WHO’s Directly-Observed Theraphy Short-course (DOTS), and with the increasing concern for drug-resistance that tuberculosis pose, looking at the role of trust in the healthcare delivery system and implementation of public health policies becomes significantly relevant. The ethnographic fieldwork was carried out in four months through observation of the daily practices at the National Tuberculosis Center of Nepal, and semi-structured interviews with MultiDrug-Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients at different stages of the treatment, their relatives, MDR-TB specialised nurses, and doctors. Throughout the research, the role which trust plays in tuberculosis treatment emerged as one fundamental ax that cuts through all the different factors intertwined with drug-resistance development, unfolding a tension between the DOTS policy, which undermines trust, and the day-to-day healthcare relations and practices which cannot function without trust. Trust also stands out as a key component of the solutions to unforeseen issues which develop from the overall uncertainty of the context - for example, political instability and extreme poverty - in which tuberculosis treatment is carried out in Nepal.

Keywords: trust, tuberculosis, drug-resistance, politics of health

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Authors: T. Sikram, M. Ichinose, R. Sasaki

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In the tropics, indoor thermal environment is usually provided by a cooling mode to maintain comfort all year. Indoor thermal environment performance is sometimes different from the standard or from the first design process because of operation, maintenance, and utilization. The field study of thermal environment in the green building is still limited in this region, while the green building continues to increase. This study aims to clarify thermal performance and subjective perception in the green building by testing the temperature set-points. A Thai green office was investigated twice in October 2018 and in May 2019. Indoor environment variables (temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity) were collected continuously. The temperature set-point was normally set as 23 °C, and it was changed into 24 °C and 25 °C. The study found that this gap of temperature set-point produced average room temperature from 22.7 to 24.6 °C and average relative humidity from 55% to 62%. Thermal environments slight shifted out of the ASHRAE comfort zone when the set-point was increased. Based on the thermal sensation vote, the feeling-colder vote decreased by 30% and 18% when changing +1 °C and +2 °C, respectively. Predicted mean vote (PMV) shows that most of the calculated median values were negative. The values went close to the optimal neutral value (0) when the set-point was set at 25 °C. The neutral temperature was slightly decreased when changing warmer temperature set-points. Building-related symptom reports were found in this study that the number of votes reduced continuously when the temperature was warmer. The symptoms that occurred by a cooler condition had the number of votes more than ones that occurred by a warmer condition. In sum, for this green office, there is a possibility to adjust a higher temperature set-point to +1 °C (24 °C) in terms of reducing cold sensitivity, discomfort, and symptoms. All results could support the policy of changing a warmer temperature of this office to become “a better green building”.

Keywords: thermal environment, green office, temperature set-point, comfort

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Authors: Liyu Adhi Kasari Sulung

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Poverty has been a major problem in Indonesia. Islamic micro finance (IMF) named Baitul Maal Wat Tamwil (Bmt) plays a prominent role to eradicate this. Indonesia as the biggest muslim country has many successful applied products such as worldwide adopt group-based lending approach, flexible financing for farmers, and gold pawning. The Problems related to these models are operation risk management and internal control system (ICS). A proper ICS will help an organization in preventing the occurrence of bad financing through detecting error and irregularities in its operation. This study aims to seek a proper risk management scheme of credit system in Bmt and internal control system’s rank for every stage. Risk management variables are obtained at the first In-Depth Interview (IDI) and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with Shariah supervisory boards, boards of directors, and operational managers. Survey was conducted covering nationwide data; West Java, South Sulawesi, and West Nusa Tenggara. Moreover, Content analysis is employed to build the relationship among these variables. Research Findings shows that risk management Characteristics in Indonesia involves ex ante, credit process, and ex post strategies to deal with risk in credit system. Ex-ante control consists of Shariah compliance, survey, group leader reference, and islamic forming orientation. Then, credit process involves saving, collateral, joint liability, loan repayment, and credit installment controlling. Finally, ex-post control includes shariah evaluation, credit evaluation, grace period and low installment provisions. In addition, internal control order sort three stages by its priority; Credit process as first rank, then ex-post control as second, and ex ante control as the last rank.

Keywords: internal control system, islamic micro finance, poverty, risk management

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Authors: Martins A. Adefisoye, Mpaka Lindelwa, Fadare Folake, Anthony I. Okoh

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Evolution and rapid dissemination of antibiotic resistance from one ecosystem to another has been responsible for wide-scale epidemic and endemic spreads of multi-drug resistance pathogens. This study assessed the prevalence of Enterobacteriaceae in different environmental samples, including river water, hospital effluents, abattoir wastewater, animal rectal swabs and faecal droppings, soil, and vegetables, using standard microbiological procedure. The identity of the isolates were confirmed using matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrophotometry (MALDI-TOF) while the isolates were profiled for resistance against a panel of 16 antibiotics using disc diffusion (DD) test, and the occurrence of resistance genes (ARG) was determined by polymerase chain reactions (PCR). Enterobacteriaceae counts in the samples range as follows: river water 4.0 × 101 – 2.0 × 104 cfu/100 ml, hospital effluents 1.5 × 103 – 3.0 × 107 cfu/100 ml, municipal wastewater 2.3 × 103 – 9.2 × 104 cfu/100 ml, faecal droppings 3.0 × 105 – 9.5 × 106 cfu/g, animal rectal swabs 3.0 × 102 – 2.9 × 107 cfu/ml, soil 0 – 1.2 × 105 cfu/g and vegetables 0 – 2.2 × 107 cfu/g. Of the 700 randomly selected presumptive isolates subjected to MALDI-TOF analysis, 129 (18.4%), 68 (9.7%), 67 (9.5%), 41 (5.9%) were E. coli, Klebsiella spp., Enterobacter spp., and Citrobacter spp. respectively while the remaining isolates belong to other genera not targeted in the study. The DD test shows resistance ranging between 91.6% (175/191) for cefuroxime and (15.2%, 29/191) for imipenem The predominant multiple antibiotic resistance phenotypes (MARP), (GM-AUG-AP-CTX-CXM-CIP-NOR-NI-C-NA-TS-T-DXT) occurred in 9 Klebsiella isolates. The multiple antibiotic resistance indices (MARI) the isolates (range 0.17–1.0) generally showed >95% had MARI above the 0.2 thresholds, suggesting that most of the isolates originate from high-risk environments with high antibiotic use and high selective pressure for the emergence of resistance. The associated ARG in the isolates include: bla TEM 61.9 (65), bla SHV 1.9 (2), bla OXA 8.6 (9), CTX-M-2 8.6 (9), CTX-M-9 6.7 (7), sul 2 26.7 (28), tet A 16.2 (17), tet M 17.1 (18), aadA 59.1 (62), strA 34.3 (36), aac(3)A 19.1 (20), (aa2)A 7.6 (8), and aph(3)-1A 10.5 (11). The results underscore the need for preventative measures to curb the proliferation of antibiotic-resistant bacteria including Enterobacteriaceae to protect public health.

Keywords: enterobacteriaceae, antibiotic-resistance, MALDI-TOF, resistance genes, MARP, MARI, public health

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Authors: Bingying Liu, Dandong Ge, Xinlan Zhang, Haoyang Liang

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Over the past two years, a new generation of No-Pile Bike sharing, represented by the Ofo, Mobike and HelloBike, has sprung up in various cities in China, and spread rapidly in countries such as Britain, Japan, the United States and Singapore. As a new green public transportation mode, bike sharing can bring a series of benefits to urban space. At first, this paper analyzes the specific impact of bike sharing on urban space in China. Based on the market research and data analyzing, it is found that bike sharing can improve the quality of urban space in three aspects: expanding the radius of public transportation service, filling service blind spots, alleviating urban traffic congestion, and enhancing the vitality of urban space. On the other hand, due to the immature market and the imperfect system, bike sharing has gradually revealed some difficulties, such as parking chaos, malicious damage, safety problems, imbalance between supply and demand, and so on. Then the paper investigates the characteristics of shared bikes, business model, operating mechanism on Chinese market currently. Finally, in order to make bike sharing serve urban construction better, this paper puts forward some specific countermeasures from four aspects. In terms of market operations, it is necessary to establish a public-private partnership model and set up a unified bike-sharing integrated management platform. From technical methods level, the paper proposes to develop an intelligent parking system for regulating parking. From policy formulation level, establishing a bike-sharing assessment mechanism would strengthen supervision. As to urban planning, sharing data and redesigning slow roadway is beneficial for transportation and spatial planning.

Keywords: bike sharing, impact analysis, improvement strategy, urban space

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Authors: K. S. Vedasingha, K. K. M. T. Perera, K. I. Hathurusinghe, H. W. I. Akalanka, Nelum Chathuranga Amarasena, Nalaka R. Dissanayake

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Railways provide the most convenient and economically beneficial mode of transportation, and it has been the most popular transportation method among all. According to the past analyzed data, it reveals a considerable number of accidents which occurred at railways and caused damages to not only precious lives but also to the economy of the countries. There are some major issues which need to be addressed in railways of South Asian countries since they fall under the developing category. The goal of this research is to minimize the influencing aspect of railway level crossing accidents by developing the “railway process automation system”, as there are high-risk areas that are prone to accidents, and safety at these places is of utmost significance. This paper describes the implementation methodology and the success of the study. The main purpose of the system is to ensure human safety by using the Internet of Things (IoT) and image processing techniques. The system can detect the current location of the train and close the railway gate automatically. And it is possible to do the above-mentioned process through a decision-making system by using past data. The specialty is both processes working parallel. As usual, if the system fails to close the railway gate due to technical or a network failure, the proposed system can identify the current location and close the railway gate through a decision-making system, which is a revolutionary feature. The proposed system introduces further two features to reduce the causes of railway accidents. Railway track crack detection and motion detection are those features which play a significant role in reducing the risk of railway accidents. Moreover, the system is capable of detecting rule violations at a level crossing by using sensors. The proposed system is implemented through a prototype, and it is tested with real-world scenarios to gain the above 90% of accuracy.

Keywords: crack detection, decision-making, image processing, Internet of Things, motion detection, prototype, sensors

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Authors: Melissa Dickinson

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In the context of intense global competitiveness and urban transformations, today’s cities are faced with enormous challenges. There is increasing pressure among cities and regions to respond promptly and efficiently to fierce market progressions, to offer a competitive advantage, higher flexibility, and to be pro-active in creating future markets. Consequently, competition among cities and regions within the dynamics of a worldwide spatial economic system is growing fiercer, amplifying the importance of intangible capital in shaping the competitive and dynamic economic performance of organisations and firms. Accordingly, this study addresses how intangible capital influences urban economic development within an urban environment. Despite substantial research on the economic, and strategic determinants of urban economic development this multidimensional phenomenon remains to be one of the greatest challenges for economic geographers. The research provides a unique contribution, exploring intangible capital through the lenses of entrepreneurial capital and social-network capital. Drawing on business surveys and in-depth interviews with key stakeholders in the case of the three UK Core Cities Birmingham, Bristol and Cardiff. This paper critically considers how entrepreneurial capital and social-network capital is a crucial source of competitiveness and urban economic development. This paper deals with questions concerning the complexity of operationalizing ‘network capital’ in different urban settings and the challenges that reside in characterising its effects. The paper will highlight the role of institutions in facilitating urban economic development. Particular emphasis will be placed on exploring the roles formal and informal institutions have in delivering, supporting and nurturing entrepreneurial capital and social-network capital, to facilitate urban economic development. Discussions will then consider how institutions moderate and contribute to the economic development of urban areas, to provide implications in terms of future policy formulation in the context of large and medium sized cities.

Keywords: urban economic development, network capital, entrepreneurialism, institutions

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Authors: Farida Naceur

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Algerian cities experienced after the independence of the country a rapid urbanisation process fostered by population growth. In order to deal with the severe housing shortage resulted, large social public housing programs totally financed by the government were launched across the country during the eighty. Unfortunately, the standardized multistory buildings produced underwent intense deterioration and turned very quickly after their occupancy into sources of nuisance and distress. The government adopted a new housing policy in 2000, which aims to diversify housing types according to household incomes and encourage access to housing property. The model of participatory social housing emerged; it was designed for the intermediate groups, allowing them to benefit from direct financial aid and to borrow credit from banks in order to purchase their dwellings. Twenty years afterward, no assessment to date has been established to evaluate the real impact of such a strategy. The aim of this paper is to examine whether this type of housing helped to stimulate a participative dynamism among its occupants to strengthen their commitment, their involvement in the maintenance and keeping of their surroundings. For the purpose of the study, we focus our attention on various participatory social housing settlements in Batna and Biskra, two medium-sized cities in eastern Algeria. The investigation is structured in various types of analysis: a spatial analysis, observations, interviews with public authorities representatives, chief planners, and experts. In addition to this, informal interviews with occupants of various participatory social housing settlements were arranged to collect qualitative data. Occupants were asked open questions focusing on their daily life and practices in order to examine their degree of involvement in their neighbourhood’s life.

Keywords: participatory social housing, rental social housing, involvement, maintenance, social interactions, community life

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Authors: Johanna Bapela, Heino Heyman, Marion Meyer

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Regardless of the significant advances accomplished in reducing the burden of malaria and other tropical diseases in recent years, malaria remains a major cause of mortality in endemic countries. This is especially the case in sub-Saharan Africa where 99% of the estimated global malaria deaths occurs on an annual basis. The emergence of resistant Plasmodium species and the lack of diversified chemotherapeutic agents provide the rationale for bioprospecting for antiplasmodial scaffolds. Crude extracts from twenty indigenous antimalarial plant species were screened for antimalarial activity and then subjected to 1H NMR-based metabolomic analysis. Ten plant extracts exhibited significant in vitro antiplasmodial activity (IC50 ≤ 5 µg/ml). The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the acquired 1H NMR spectra could not separate the analyzed plant extracts according to the detected antiplasmodial bioactivity. Application of supervised Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures–Discriminant Analysis (OPLS-DA) to the 1H NMR profiles resulted in a discrimination pattern that could be correlated to bioactivity. A contribution plot generated from the OPLS-DA scoring plot illustrated the classes of compounds responsible for the observed grouping. Given the preliminary in vitro results, Tabernaemontana elegans Stapf. (Apocynaceae) and Vangueria infausta Burch. subsp. infausta (Rubiaceae) were subjected to further phytochemical investigations. Two indole alkaloids, dregamine and tabernaemontanine possessing antiplasmodial activity were isolated from T. elegans. Two compounds were isolated from V. infausta subsp. infausta and identified as friedelin (IC50 = 3.01 µg/ml) and morindolide (IC50 = 18.5 µg/ml). While these compounds have been previously identified, this is the first account of their occurrence in the genus Vangueria and their antiplasmodial activity. Based on the results of the study, metabolomics can be used to globally identify classes of plant secondary metabolites that are responsible for antiplasmodial activity.

Keywords: ethnopharmacology, Malaria, medicinal plants, metabolomics

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Authors: G. Venkatesha, Urs Samarth, H. K. Ramaraju, Arun Kumar Sharma

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The projection for Groundwater states that the total domestic water demand for greater Bangalore would increase from 1,170 MLD in 2010 to 1,336 MLD in 2016. Dependence on groundwater is ever increasing due to rapid Industrialization & Urbanization. It is estimated that almost 40% of the population of Bangalore is dependent on groundwater. Due to the unscientific disposal of domestic and industrial waste generated, groundwater is getting highly polluted in the city. The scale of this impact will depend mainly upon the water-service infrastructure, the superficial geology and the regional setting. The quality of ground water is equally important as that of quantity. Jointed and fractured granites and gneisses constitute the major aquifer system of BBMP area. Two new observatory Borewells were drilled and lithology report has been prepared. Petrographic Analysis (XRD/XRF) and Water quality Analysis were carried out as per the standard methods. Petrographic samples were analysed by collecting chip of rock from the borewell for every 20ft depth, most of the samples were similar and samples were identified as Biotite-Gneiss, Schistose Amphibolite. Water quality analysis was carried out for individual chemical parameters for two borewells drilled. 1st Borewell struck water at 150ft (Total depth-200ft) & 2nd struck at 740ft (Total depth-960ft). 5 water samples were collected till end of depth in each borewell. Chemical parameter values such as, Total Hardness (360-348, 280-320) mg/ltr, Nitrate (12.24-13.5, 45-48) mg/ltr, Chloride (104-90, 70-70)mg/ltr, Fe (0.75-0.09, 1.288-0.312)mg/ltr etc. are calculated respectively. Water samples were analysed from various parts of BBMP covering 750 sq kms, also thematic maps (IDW method) of water quality is generated for these samples for Post-Monsoon season. The study aims to explore the sub-surface Lithological layers and the thickness of weathered zone, which indirectly helps to know the Groundwater pollution source near surface water bodies, dug wells, etc. The above data are interpreted for future ground water resources planning and management.

Keywords: lithology, petrographic, pollution, urbanization

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Authors: Zahra Khodaee

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Environmental Justice (EJ) concept consists of multifaceted movements, community struggles, and discourses in contemporary societies that seek to reduce environmental risks, increase environmental protections, and generally reduce environmental inequalities suffered by minority and poor communities; a term that incorporates ‘environmental racism’ and ‘environmental classism,’ captures the idea that different racial and socioeconomic groups experience differential access to environmental quality. This article explores environmental justice as an urban phenomenon in urban planning and applies it in peri-urban environment of a metropolis. Tehran peri-urban environments which are the result of meeting the city- village- nature systems or «city-village junction» have gradually faced effects such as accelerated environmental decline, changes without land-use plan, and severe service deficiencies. These problems are instances of environmental injustice which make the planners to adjust the problems and use and apply the appropriate strategies and policies by looking for solutions and resorting to theories, techniques and methods related to environmental justice. In order to access to this goal, try to define environmental justice through justice and determining environmental justice indices to analysis environmental injustice in case study. Then, make an effort to introduce some criteria to select case study in two micro and micro levels. Qiyamdasht town as the peri-urban environment of Tehran metropolis is chosen and examined to show the existence of environmental injustice by questionnaire analysis and SPSS software. Finally, use AIDA technique to design a strategic plan and reduce environmental injustice in case study by introducing the better scenario to be used in policy and decision making areas.

Keywords: environmental justice, metropolis of Tehran, Qiyam, Dasht peri, urban settlement, analysis of interconnected decision area (AIDA)

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Authors: Shree Kumar Maharjan

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Climate change has varied impacts on diverse livelihood sectors, which is more prominent at the community level. The stakeholders and local institutions have been supporting the communities either by building adaptive capacities and resilience or minimizing the impacts of different adaptation interventions. Some of these interventions are effective, whereas others need further dynamisms and exertions considering the complexity of the risks and vulnerabilities. Hence, consolidated efforts of concerned stakeholders are required to minimize and adapt the present and future impacts. This study digs out and analyses the perceptions of local stakeholders in climate change adaptation in Madi and Deukhuri valleys of Nepal through a questionnaire survey. The study has categorized the local stakeholders into 5 groups in the study sites – Farmers groups and cooperatives, Government, I/NGOs, Development banks and education and other organizations. The local stakeholders revealed flood, drought, cold wave and riverbank erosion as the major climatic risks and hazards found in the sites eventually impacting on the loss of agricultural production, loss of agricultural land and properties, loss of livestock, the emergence of diseases and pest. The stakeholders believed that most of the farmers dealing with these impacts based on their traditional knowledge and practices, followed by with the support of NGOs and with the help of neighbors and community. The major supports of the stakeholders to deal with these impacts were on training and awareness, risk analysis and minimization, livelihood improvement, financial support, coordination and networking and facilitation in policy formulation. The stakeholders emphasized primarily on capacity building, appropriate technologies, community-based planning and monitoring, prioritization to the poor and the marginalized and establishment of community fund respectively for building adaptive capacities.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, local stakeholders, Madi, Deukhuri, Nepal

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Authors: Hadi Allafta, Christian Opp

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Soil erosion is a major concern in the Shatt Al-Arab basin owing to the steepness of its topography as well as the remarkable altitudinal deference between the upstream and downstream parts of the basin. Such conditions resulted in soil vulnerability to erosion; huge amounts of soil are annually transported, creating enormous implications such as land degradation, structure damage, biodiversity loss, productivity decline, etc. Thus, evaluation of soil erosion risk and its spatial distribution is crucial to build adatabase for efficient control measures. The present study used revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS) for depicting soil erosion hazard zones in the Shatt Al-Arab basin. The RUSLE model incorporated several parameters such as rainfall-runoff erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, land cover and management, and conservation support practice for soil erosion zonation. High to medium soil loss of 100 to 20 ton perhectare per year represents around 25% of the basin area, while the areas of low soil loss of less than 20 ton per hectare per year occupied the rest of the total area. The high soil loss rates are linked to areas of high rainfall levels, loamy soil domination, elevated terrains/plateau margins with steep side slope, and high cultivation activities. The findings of the current study can be useful for managers and policy makers in the implementation of a suitable conservation program to reduce soil erosion or to recommend soil conservation acts if development projects are to be continued at regions of high soil erosion risk.

Keywords: geographic information system, revised universal soil loss equation, shatt Al-Arab basin, soil erosion

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Authors: Ahdab H. Mahdaly, Debajyoti Pati, Sharran Parkinson, Lee S. Duemer

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The importance of providing employed mothers with the right physical environment inside the home is not an easy task, especially when the culture is involved. This study examines the typical Saudi home as a personal, emotional, social and cultural setting, especially on the interactions between the physical design and perceived control of working mothers. However, owing to the scarcity of published literature on Saudi homes, American employed mothers were included in the study to provide a baseline. With the ongoing transformations in women’s role in Saudi Arabia, there is a perception that traditional home designs may not afford the appropriate sense of control inside the home. Saudi Arabia has numerous interacting layers of socio-cultural-religious forces that affect residential design, and understanding the moderating role of the Saudi home is vital to the ongoing national policy transition on women. The study investigated one narrow, albeit critical, influence of home design on ones sense of control – direct visual and physical accessibility between sets of rooms. Ten subjects, five Saudis and five American, examined visual and physical access between 171 room sets, and provided qualitative responses on how each access influences their sense of control. Three main themes emerged, with potential effects on control: 1- Openness, 2- Proximity, and 3- Separation. Data suggest that although the Saudi home is a substantially more complex setting than the American ones, a class of spaces that can be termed as ‘Neutral Rooms’ serving as cultural separators may represent the ideal solution for optimizing sense of control, without ignoring cultural-religious traditions, during the transition of the Saudi women.

Keywords: direct physical accessibility, home environment, sense of control, visual accessibility, working mothers

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Authors: Herbert Ntuli, Edwin Muchapondwa

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This study used a sample of 336 households and community level data from 30 communities around the Gonarezhou National Park in Zimbabwe to analyse the association between ability to self-organize or cooperation and institutions on one hand and the relationship between success of biodiversity outcomes and cooperation on the other hand. Using both the ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimation with heteroskedasticity-based instruments, our results confirmed that sound institutions are indeed an important ingredient for cooperation in the respective communities and cooperation positively and significantly affects biodiversity outcomes. Group size, community level trust, the number of stakeholders and punishment were found to be important variables explaining cooperation. From a policy perspective, our results show that external enforcement of rules and regulations does not necessarily translate into sound ecological outcomes but better outcomes are attainable when punishment is rather endogenized by local communities. This seems to suggest that communities should rather be supported in such a way that robust institutions that are tailor made to suit the needs of local condition will emerge that will in turn facilitate good environmental husbandry. Cooperation, training, benefits, distance from the nearest urban canter, distance from the fence, social capital average age of household head, fence and information sharing were found to be very important variables explaining the success of biodiversity outcomes ceteris paribus. Government programmes should target capacity building in terms of institutional capacity and skills development in order to have a positive impact on biodiversity. Hence, the role of stakeholders (e.g., NGOs) in capacity building and government effort should complement each other to ensure that the necessary resources are mobilized and all communities receive the necessary training and resources.

Keywords: institutions, self-organize, common pool resources, wildlife, conservation, Zimbabwe

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Authors: Nancy Njoka, Manuela Ramos Cacciatore

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In Kenya, refugee situations are becoming increasingly protracted, stretching over the years or even decades. As urbanization rates increase, so do the numbers of urban refugees in the country. Refugees living in urban areas face a range of challenges. In their efforts to pursue livelihoods, refugees have identified strategies to confront these challenges. In the same manner, humanitarian actors have come up with different interventions to promote access to livelihoods working through obstacles and barriers created by host governments. This paper seeks to understand the experience of Somali urban refugees living in the urban area of Eastleigh, Nairobi, both by investigating their own actions towards creating avenues to access livelihoods and by understanding their social, economic and policy context in which they forge livelihoods. The empirical data collected through fieldwork in Nairobi in 2020 serves as the basis of this qualitative case study. Drawing upon the themes of urban refugee movement, Somali ethnicity, citizenship discrimination and the livelihoods of refugees, the paper highlights how the actions of the Kenyan government and international non-governmental organization (INGO)s affect access to livelihoods and the consequences of these actions for Somali urban refugees. The results of the paper found that Somali urban refugees are taking active steps to create livelihoods for themselves. This is seen in the growth of Eastleigh as an economic hub in Kenya which is owned and run mostly by Somalis. Indeed, the Somali community is central to the establishment of networks in the neighborhood. Somali urban refugees are marginalized by the Kenyan government, reducing their opportunity to create dignified lives in Eastleigh. Findings also point out the community-based approaches used by INGOs in livelihood interventions. The relevance of this research lies in the interconnection of humanitarian development interventions for protracted refugees and the promotion of livelihoods in an urban and global context.

Keywords: Kenya, livelihoods, Somali, urban refugees

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Authors: Pranil Kumar Upadhayaya

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While peace is dividend to tourism, tourism can also be a vital force for world peace. The existing body of knowledge on a tripartite complex nexus between tourism, peace and conflict reveals that tourism is benefactor to peace and sensitive to conflict. By contextualizing the ongoing sporadic structural conflict in the transitional phase in the aftermath of a decade long (1996-2006), Maoist armed conflict in Nepal, the purpose of this study is to explore the potentials of tourism in peace-building. The outcomes of this research paper is based on the mixed methods of research (qualitative and quantitative). Though the armed conflict ended with the comprehensive peace agreement in 2006 but there is constant manifestations of non-violent structural conflicts, which continue to threaten the sustainability of tourism industry. With the persistent application of coping strategies, tourism is found resilient during the ongoing structural political conflict. The strong coping abilities of the private sector of tourism industry have also intersected with peace-building efforts with more reactive and less proactive (pro-peace) engagements. This paper ascertains about the application of the ‘theory of tourism security’ by Nepalese tourism industry while coping with conflict and reviving, and sustaining. It reveals that the multiple verities of tourism at present has heterogeneous degree of peace potentials. The opportunities of ‘peace through tourism’ can be promoted subject to its molding with responsible, sustainable and participatory characteristics. This paper comes out with pragmatic policy recommendations for strengthening the position of tourism as a true peace-builder: (a) a broad shift from mainstream conventional tourism to the community based rural with local participation and ownership to fulfill Nepal’s potentials for peace, and (b) building and applications of the managerial and operational codes of conducts for owners and workers (labor unions) at all tourism enterprises and strengthen their practices.

Keywords: code of conduct, community based tourism, conflict, peace-building, tourism

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Authors: Chikwelu Edward Emenike, Ogbuagu Uchenna Fredrick

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About 34% of the solar radiant energy reaching the earth is immediately reflected back to space as incoming radiation by clouds, chemicals, dust in the atmosphere and by the earth’s surface. Most of the remaining 66% warms the atmosphere and land. Most of the incoming solar radiation not reflect away is degraded into low-quality heat and flows into space. The rate at which this energy returns to space as low-quality heat is affected by the presence of molecules of greenhouse gases. Gaseous emission was measured with the aid of Growen gas Analyzer with a digital readout. Total measurements of eight parameters of twelve selected sample locations taken at two different seasons within two months were made. The ambient air quality investigation in Anambra State has shown the overall mean concentrations of gaseous emission at twelve (12) locations. The mean gaseous emissions showed (NO2=0.66ppm, SO2=0.30ppm, CO=43.93ppm, H2S=2.17ppm, CH4=1.27ppm, CFC=1.59ppb, CO2=316.33ppm, N2O=302.67ppb and O3=0.37ppm). These values do not conform to the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) and thus contribute significantly to the global warming. Because some of these gaseous emissions (SO2, NO2) are oxidizing agents, they act as irritants that damage delicate tissues in the eyes and respiratory passages. These can impair lung function and trigger cardiovascular problems as the heart tries to compensate for lack of Oxygen by pumping faster and harder. The major sources of air pollution are transportation, industrial processes, stationary fuel combustion and solid waste disposal, thus much is yet to be done in a developing country like Nigeria. Air pollution control using pollution-control equipment to reduce the major conventional pollutants, relocating people who live very close to dumpsites, processing and treatment of gases to produce electricity, heat, fuel and various chemical components should be encouraged.

Keywords: ambient air, atmosphere, greenhouse gases, anambra state

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Authors: Nkrumak Micheal Atta Ofori

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The Vocational System is a decentralized Studies System implemented in Ghana as vocation studies strategy for grassroot that focuses on providing individuals with the specific skills, knowledge, and training necessary for a particular trade, craft, profession, or occupation. This article asks how devolution of vocational studies to local level authorities produces responsive and accountable representation and sustainable vocational learning under the vocational Studies System. It focuses on two case studies: Asokore Mampong and Atwima kwanwoma Municipal. Then, the paper asks how senior high school are developing new material and social practices around the vocational studies System to rebuild their livelihoods and socio-economic wellbeing. Here, the article focusses on Kumasi District, drawing lessons for the two other cases. The article shows how the creation of representative groups under the Vocational Studies System provides the democratic space necessary for effective representation of community aspirations. However, due to elite capture, the interests of privilege few people are promoted. The state vocational training fails to devolve relevant and discretionary resources to local teachers and do not follow the prescribed policy processes of the Vocational Studies System. Hence, local teachers are unable to promote responsive and accountable representation. Rural communities continue to show great interest in the Vocational Studies System, but the interest is bias towards gaining access to vocational training schools for advancing studies. There is no active engagement of the locals in vocational training, and hence, the Vocational Studies System exists only to promote individual interest of communities. This article shows how ‘failed’ interventions can gain popular support for rhetoric and individual gains.

Keywords: vocational studies system, devolution of vocational studies, local-level authorities, senior high schools and vocational learning, community aspirations and representation

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Authors: Kaushalendra Kumar, Abhishek Kumar, Chandra Moni, Sanjay Kumar, P. K. Singh, Ajeet Kumar

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Present study investigated the dietary inclusion of Moringa oleifera leaf meal (MOLM) on production efficiency, hemato-biochemical profile and economy of Vanaraja birds under tropical condition. Experiment was conducted for a period of 56 days on 300 Vanaraja birds randomly divided in to five different experimental groups including control of 60 birds each group replicated with 20 chicks in each replicate. T1, T2, T3, T4, and T5 were offered with 0, 5, 10, 15, and 20% Moringa oleifera leaf meal along with basal ration. All the standard managemental practices were followed during experimental period including vaccination schedule. Locally available Moringa oleifera leaves were harvested at mature stage and allowed to dry under shady and aerated conditions. Thereafter, dried leaves were milled to make a leaf meal and stored in the airtight nylon bags to avoid any possible contamination from foreign material and use for experiment. Production parameters were calculated based on the amount of feed consumed and weight gain every weeks. The body weight gain of T2 group was significantly (P < 0.05) higher side whereas T3 group was comparable with control. The feed conversion ratio for T2 group was found to be significantly (P < 0.05) lower than all other treatment groups, while none of the group was comparable with each other. At the end of the experiment blood samples were collected from birds for haematology study while serum biochemistry performed using spectrophotometer following statndard protocols. The haematological attributes were significantly (P > 0.05) not differed among the groups. However, serum biochemistry showed significant reduction (P < 0.05) of blood urea nitrogen, uric acid and creatinine level with higher level of MOLM diet, indicates better utilization of protein supplemented through MOLM. The total cholesterol and triglyceride level was declined significantly (P < 0.05) as compare to control group with increased level of MOLM in basal diet, decreasing trend of serum cholesterol noted. However, value of HDL for T3 group was highest and for T1 group was lowest but no significant difference (P < 0.05) found among the groups. It might be due to presence of β-sitosterol a bioactive compound present in MOLM which causes lowering of plasma concentration of LDL. During experiment total, LDL and VLDL level was found to be decreased significantly (P < 0.05) as compare to control group. It was observed that the production efficiency of birds significantly improved with 5% followed by 10% Moringa oleifera leaf meal among the treatment groups. However, the maximum profit per kg live weight was noted in 10 % level and least profit observed in 20% MOLM fed group. It was concluded that the dietary inclusion of MOLM improved overall performances without affecting metabolic status and effective in reducing cholesterol level reflects healthy chicken production for human consumption.

Keywords: hemato biochemistry, Moringa oleifera leaf meal, performance, Vanaraja birds

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Authors: Asif Zaman, Moinul Islam Zaber, Amin Ahsan Ali

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In recent years of industrialization, the South Asian countries are being affected by air pollution due to a severe increase in fine particulate matter 2.5 (PM₂.₅). Among them, Bangladesh is one of the most polluting countries. In this paper, statistical analyses were conducted on the time series of PM₂.₅ from various districts in Bangladesh, mostly around Dhaka city. Research has been conducted on the dynamic interactions and relationships between PM₂.₅ concentrations in different zones. The study is conducted toward understanding the characteristics of PM₂.₅, such as spatial-temporal characterization, correlation of other contributors behind air pollution such as human activities, driving factors and environmental casualties. Clustering on the data gave an insight on the districts groups based on their AQI frequency as representative districts. Seasonality analysis on hourly and monthly frequency found higher concentration of fine particles in nighttime and winter season, respectively. Cross correlation analysis discovered a phenomenon of correlations among cities based on time-lagged series of air particle readings and visualization framework is developed for observing interaction in PM₂.₅ concentrations between cities. Significant time-lagged correlations were discovered between the PM₂.₅ time series in different city groups throughout the country by cross correlation analysis. Additionally, seasonal heatmaps depict that the pooled series correlations are less significant in warmer months, and among cities of greater geographic distance as well as time lag magnitude and direction of the best shifted correlated particulate matter time series among districts change seasonally. The geographic map visualization demonstrates spatial behaviour of air pollution among districts around Dhaka city and the significant effect of wind direction as the vital actor on correlated shifted time series. The visualization framework has multipurpose usage from gathering insight of general and seasonal air quality of Bangladesh to determining the pathway of regional transportation of air pollution.

Keywords: air quality, particles, cross correlation, seasonality

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Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Egypt using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for co-integration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests some negative impacts of the CO2 emissions and the coal and natural gas use on the GDP. Conversely, a positive long-run causality from the electricity consumption to the GDP is found to be significant in Egypt during the period. In the short-run, some positive unidirectional causalities exist, running from the coal consumption to the GDP, and the CO2 emissions and the natural gas use. Further, the GDP and the electricity use are positively influenced by the consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use, and economic output in both the short term and long term; however, the effects may differ due to the sources of energy, such as in the case of Egypt for the period of 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, Egypt, energy consumption, GDP, time series analysis

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Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

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In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

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