Search results for: uncertain time series

Authors: Mohamed Mounir Tellache, Hiroyuki Kambara, Yasuharu Koike, Makoto Miyakoshi, Natsue Yoshimura

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This study explores the practicality of using electroencephalographic (EEG) independent components to predict eight-direction finger movements in pseudo-real-time. Six healthy participants with individual-head MRI images performed finger movements in eight directions with two different arm configurations. The analysis was performed in two stages. The first stage consisted of using independent component analysis (ICA) to separate the signals representing brain activity from non-brain activity signals and to obtain the unmixing matrix. The resulting independent components (ICs) were checked, and those reflecting brain-activity were selected. Finally, the time series of the selected ICs were used to predict eight finger-movement directions using Sparse Logistic Regression (SLR). The second stage consisted of using the previously obtained unmixing matrix, the selected ICs, and the model obtained by applying SLR to classify a different EEG dataset. This method was applied to two different settings, namely the single-participant level and the group-level. For the single-participant level, the EEG dataset used in the first stage and the EEG dataset used in the second stage originated from the same participant. For the group-level, the EEG datasets used in the first stage were constructed by temporally concatenating each combination without repetition of the EEG datasets of five participants out of six, whereas the EEG dataset used in the second stage originated from the remaining participants. The average test classification results across datasets (mean ± S.D.) were 38.62 ± 8.36% for the single-participant, which was significantly higher than the chance level (12.50 ± 0.01%), and 27.26 ± 4.39% for the group-level which was also significantly higher than the chance level (12.49% ± 0.01%). The classification accuracy within [–45°, 45°] of the true direction is 70.03 ± 8.14% for single-participant and 62.63 ± 6.07% for group-level which may be promising for some real-life applications. Clustering and contribution analyses further revealed the brain regions involved in finger movement and the temporal aspect of their contribution to the classification. These results showed the possibility of using the ICA-based method in combination with other methods to build a real-time system to control prostheses.

Keywords: brain-computer interface, electroencephalography, finger motion decoding, independent component analysis, pseudo real-time motion decoding

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Authors: Sang-Hoon Park, Yeji Ho, Gwang-Moon Eom

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Fast and accurate detection of Freezing of Gait (FOG) is desirable for appropriate application of cueing which has been shown to ameliorate FOG. Utilization of frequency spectrum of leg acceleration to derive the freeze index requires much calculation and it would lead to delayed cueing. We hypothesized that FOG can be reasonably detected from the time domain amplitude of foot acceleration. A time instant was recognized as FOG if the mean amplitude of the acceleration in the time window surrounding the time instant was in the specific FOG range. Parameters required in the FOG detection was optimized by simulated annealing. The suggested time domain methods showed performances comparable to those of frequency domain methods.

Keywords: freezing of gait, detection, Parkinson's disease, time-domain method

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Alireza Vahid, Santu Rana, Sunil Gupta, Pratibha Vellanki, Svetha Venkatesh, Thomas Dorin

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Aluminum is the preferred material for lightweight applications and its alloys are constantly improving. The high strength 7xxx alloys have been extensively used for structural components in aerospace and automobile industries for the past 50 years. In the next decade, a great number of airplanes will be retired, providing an obvious source of valuable used metals and great demand for cost-effective methods to re-use these alloys. The design of proper aerospace alloys is primarily based on optimizing strength and ductility, both of which can be improved by controlling the additional alloying elements as well as heat treatment conditions. In this project, we explore the design of high-performance alloys with 7xxx as a base material. These designed alloys have to be optimized and improved to compare with modern 7xxx-series alloys and to remain competitive for aircraft manufacturing. Aerospace alloys are extremely complex with multiple alloying elements and numerous processing steps making optimization often intensive and costly. In the present study, we used Bayesian optimization algorithm, a well-known adaptive design strategy, to optimize this multi-variable system. An Al alloy was proposed and the relevant heat treatment schedules were optimized, using the tensile yield strength as the output to maximize. The designed alloy has a maximum yield strength and ultimate tensile strength of more than 730 and 760 MPa, respectively, and is thus comparable to the modern high strength 7xxx-series alloys. The microstructure of this alloy is characterized by electron microscopy, indicating that the increased strength of the alloy is due to the presence of a high number density of refined precipitates.

Keywords: aluminum alloys, Bayesian optimization, heat treatment, tensile properties

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Authors: Abdelghani Choucha, Lakhdar Chaib, Salem Arif

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This paper treated the problem of power system stability with the aid of Static Synchronous Series Compensator (SSSC) installed in the transmission line of single machine infinite bus (SMIB) power system. A fractional order PID (FOPID) controller has been applied as a robust controller for optimal SSSC design to control the power system characteristics. Additionally, the SSSC based FOPID parameters are smoothly tuned using Invasive Weed Optimization algorithm (IWO). To verify the strength of the proposed controller, SSSC based FOPID controller is validated in a wide range of operating condition and compared with the conventional scheme SSSC-POD controller. The main purpose of the proposed process is greatly enhanced the dynamic states of the tested system. Simulation results clearly prove the superiority and performance of the proposed controller design.

Keywords: SSSC-FOPID, SSSC-POD, SMIB power system, invasive weed optimization algorithm

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Authors: Andrzej Szewczak

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Study of the effect of high temperatures on polymer coatings represents an important field of research of their properties. Polymers, as materials with numerous features (chemical resistance, ease of processing and recycling, corrosion resistance, low density and weight) are currently the most widely used modern building materials, among others in the resin concrete, plastic parts, and hydrophobic coatings. Unfortunately, the polymers have also disadvantages, one of which decides about their usage - low resistance to high temperatures and brittleness. This applies in particular thin and flexible polymeric coatings applied to other materials, such a steel and concrete, which degrade under varying thermal conditions. Research about improvement of this state includes methods of modification of the polymer composition, structure, conditioning conditions, and the polymerization reaction. At present, ways are sought to reflect the actual environmental conditions, in which the coating will be operating after it has been applied to other material. These studies are difficult because of the need for adopting a proper model of the polymer operation and the determination of phenomena occurring at the time of temperature fluctuations. For this reason, alternative methods are being developed, taking into account the rapid modeling and the simulation of the actual operating conditions of polymeric coating’s materials in real conditions. The nature of a duration is typical for the temperature influence in the environment. Studies typically involve the measurement of variation one or more physical and mechanical properties of such coating in time. Based on these results it is possible to determine the effects of temperature loading and develop methods affecting in the improvement of coatings’ properties. This paper contains a description of the stability studies of silicone coatings deposited on the surface of a ceramic brick. The brick’s surface was hydrophobized by two types of inorganic polymers: nano-polymer preparation based on dialkyl siloxanes (Series 1 - 5) and an aqueous solution of the silicon (series 6 - 10). In order to enhance the stability of the film formed on the brick’s surface and immunize it to variable temperature and humidity loading, the nano silica was added to the polymer. The right combination of the polymer liquid phase and the solid phase of nano silica was obtained by disintegration of the mixture by the sonification. The changes of viscosity and surface tension of polymers were defined, which are the basic rheological parameters affecting the state and the durability of the polymer coating. The coatings created on the brick’s surfaces were then subjected to a temperature loading of 100° C and moisture by total immersion in water, in order to determine any water absorption changes caused by damages and the degradation of the polymer film. The effect of moisture and temperature was determined by measurement (at specified number of cycles) of changes in the surface hardness (using a Vickers’ method) and the absorption of individual samples. As a result, on the basis of the obtained results, the degradation process of polymer coatings related to their durability changes in time was determined.

Keywords: silicones, siloxanes, surface hardness, temperature, water absorption

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Authors: Yang Geng, Anqi Zhao

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The misreading theory of Harold Bloom provides a new diachronic perspective as an approach to the consistency between rhetoric of digital technology, dynamic movement of digital images and uncertain meaning of text. Reinterpreting the diachroneity of 'intertextuality' in the context of misreading theory extended the range of the 'intermediality' of transmedia to the intense tension between digital images and symbolic images throughout history of images. With the analogy between six categories of revisionary ratios and six steps of digital transformation, digital rhetoric might be illustrated as a linear process reflecting dynamic, intensive relations between digital moving images and original static images. Finally, it was concluded that two-way framework of the rhetoric of transformation of digital images and reversed served as a renarrative structure to revive static images by reconnecting them with digital moving images.

Keywords: rhetoric, digital art, intermediality, misreading theory

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Authors: Andre Wittenborn, Jarek Krajewski

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Trauma-related sadness in speech can alter the voice in several ways. The generation of non-linear aerodynamic phenomena within the vocal tract is crucial when analyzing trauma-influenced speech production. They include non-laminar flow and formation of jets rather than well-behaved laminar flow aspects. Especially state-space reconstruction methods based on chaotic dynamics and fractal theory have been suggested to describe these aerodynamic turbulence-related phenomena of the speech production system. To extract the non-linear properties of the speech signal, we used the time delay embedding method to reconstruct from a scalar time series (reconstructed phase space, RPS). This approach results in the extraction of 7238 Features per .wav file (N= 47, 32 m, 15 f). The speech material was prompted by telling about autobiographical related sadness-inducing experiences (sampling rate 16 kHz, 8-bit resolution). After combining these features in a support vector machine based machine learning approach (leave-one-sample out validation), we achieved a correlation of r = .41 with the well-established, self-report ground truth measure (RATS) of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

Keywords: non-linear dynamics features, post traumatic stress disorder, reconstructed phase space, support vector machine

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Authors: Farzane Sadatnia, Bahram Fathi

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Today, all public and private organizations have found that the management of the world for key information related to the activities of a staff and its main essence and philosophy, though they constitute the management information systems are very helpful in this respect the right to apply systems can save a lot in terms of economic organizations including reducing the time decision - making, improve the quality of decision making, and cost savings to bring information systems is a backup system that can never be instead of logic and human reasoning, which can be used in the series is spreading, providing resources, and provide the necessary facilities, provide better services for users, balanced budget allocation, determine strengths and weaknesses and previous plans to review the current decisions and especially the decision . Hence; in this study attempts to the effect of an information system on a review of the organization.

Keywords: information system, planning, organization, coordination, control

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Authors: Giuseppe Timperio, Robert De Souza

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The combination of factors such as temperamental climate change, rampant urbanization of risk exposed areas, political and social instabilities, is posing an alarming base for the further growth of number and magnitude of humanitarian crises worldwide. Given the unique features of humanitarian supply chain such as unpredictability of demand in space, time, and geography, spike in the number of requests for relief items in the first days after the calamity, uncertain state of logistics infrastructures, large volumes of unsolicited low-priority items, a proactive approach towards design of disaster response operations is needed to achieve high agility in mobilization of emergency supplies in the immediate aftermath of the event. This paper is an attempt in that direction, and it provides decision makers with crucial strategic insights for a more effective network design for disaster response. Decision sciences and ICT are integrated to analyse the robustness and resilience of a prepositioned network of emergency strategic stockpiles for a real-life case about Indonesia, one of the most vulnerable countries in Asia-Pacific, with the model being built upon a rich set of quantitative data. At this aim, a network optimization approach was implemented, with several what-if scenarios being accurately developed and tested. Findings of this study are able to support decision makers facing challenges related with disaster relief chains resilience, particularly about optimal configuration of supply chain facilities and optimal flows across the nodes, while considering the network structure from an end-to-end in-country distribution perspective.

Keywords: disaster preparedness, humanitarian logistics, network optimization, resilience

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Authors: Elsheikh Asser

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Time and cost are the main goals of the construction project management. The first schedule developed may not be a suitable schedule for beginning or completing the project to achieve the target completion time at a minimum total cost. In general, there are trade-offs between time and cost (TCT) to complete the activities of a project. This research presents genetic algorithms (GAs) multi-objective model for project scheduling considering different scenarios such as least cost, least time, and target time.

Keywords: genetic algorithms, time-cost trade-off, multi-objective model, project scheduling

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Authors: Mohammed Benmostefa

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In the industrial production of large series or even medium series, there are vibration problems. In continuous operations, technical devices result in vibrations in solid bodies and machine components, which generate solid noise and/or airborne noise. This is because vibrations are the mechanical oscillations of an object near its equilibrium point. In response to the problems resulting from these vibrations, a number of remedial acts and solutions have been put forward. These include insulation of machines, insulation of concrete masses, insulation under screeds, insulation of sensitive equipment, point insulation of machines, linear insulation of machines, full surface insulation of machines, and the like. Following this, the researcher sought not only to raise awareness on the possibility of lowering the vibration frequency in industrial machines but also to stress the significance of procedures involving the pre-installation process of machinery, namely, setting appropriate installation and start-up methods of the machine, allocating and updating imprint folders to each machine, and scheduling maintenance of each machine all year round to have reliable equipment, gain cost reduction and maintenance efficiency to eventually ensure the overall economic performance of the company.

Keywords: maintenance, vibration, efficiency, production, machinery

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Authors: Xinli Chen, Xue Su

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In the urban rail transit CBTC system, interlocking is considered one of the most basic sys-tems, which has the characteristics of logical complexity and high-security requirements. The development and verification of traditional interlocking subsystems are entirely manual pro-cesses and rely too much on the designer, which often hides many uncertain factors. In order to solve this problem, this article is based on the multi-template nib tracking algorithm for model construction and verification, achieving the main safety attributes and using SCADE for formal verification. Experimental results show that this method helps to improve the quality and efficiency of interlocking software.

Keywords: computer interlocking subsystem, penpoint tracking, communication-based train control system, multi-template tip tracking

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Authors: Thuduwage Lasanthika Sajeevanie

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Success is very important, and there are many factors affecting the success of any situation or a person. In Sri Lankan Context, it is hardly possible to find an empirical study relating to time management and academic success. Globally many organizations, individuals practice time management to be effective. Hence it is very important to examine the nature of time management practice. Thus this study will fill the existing gap relating to achieving academic success through proper time management practices. The research problem of this study is what is the relationship exist among time management skills and academic success of university lecturers in state universities. The objective of this paper is to identify the impact of time management skills for academic success of university lecturers. This is a conceptual study, and it was done through a literature survey by following purposive sampling technique for the selection of literature. Most of the studies have found that time management is highly related to academic performance. However, most of them have done on the academic performance of the students, and there were very few studies relating to academic performance of the university lecturers. Hence it can be further suggested to conduct a study relating to identifying the relationship between academic performance and time management skills of university lecturers.

Keywords: academic success, performance, time management skills, university lecturers

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Authors: Amjad Abdullah, Amjad Yahya, Bushra Aljohani, Amani Alghamdi

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Change point detection is an important part of data analysis. The presence of a change point refers to a significant change in the behavior of a time series. In this article, we examine the detection of multiple change points of parameters of the exponential Lomax distribution, which is broad and flexible compared with other distributions while fitting data. We used the Schwarz information criterion and binary segmentation to detect multiple change points in publicly available data on the average temperature in the ozone layer. The change points were successfully located.

Keywords: binary segmentation, change point, exponentialLomax distribution, information criterion

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Authors: E. Sobhani-Tehrani, K. Khorasani, N. Meskin

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This paper presents a novel integrated hybrid approach for fault diagnosis (FD) of nonlinear systems. Unlike most FD techniques, the proposed solution simultaneously accomplishes fault detection, isolation, and identification (FDII) within a unified diagnostic module. At the core of this solution is a bank of adaptive neural parameter estimators (NPE) associated with a set of single-parameter fault models. The NPEs continuously estimate unknown fault parameters (FP) that are indicators of faults in the system. Two NPE structures including series-parallel and parallel are developed with their exclusive set of desirable attributes. The parallel scheme is extremely robust to measurement noise and possesses a simpler, yet more solid, fault isolation logic. On the contrary, the series-parallel scheme displays short FD delays and is robust to closed-loop system transients due to changes in control commands. Finally, a fault tolerant observer (FTO) is designed to extend the capability of the NPEs to systems with partial-state measurement.

Keywords: hybrid fault diagnosis, dynamic neural networks, nonlinear systems, fault tolerant observer

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Majid Vafaeipour, Mohamed El Baghdadi, Florian Verbelen, Peter Sergeant, Joeri Van Mierlo, Kurt Stockman, Omar Hegazy

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The Electrical Variable Transmission (EVT), an electromechanical device, can be considered as an alternative solution to the conventional transmission system utilized in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). This study present comparisons in terms of fuel consumption, power split, and state of charge (SoC) of an HEV containing an EVT to a conventional parallel topology and a series topology. To this end, corresponding simulations of these topologies are all performed in presence of control strategies enabling battery charge-sustaining and efficient power split. The power flow through the components of the vehicle are attained, and fuel consumption results of the considered cases are compared. The investigation of the results indicates utilizing EVT can provide significant added values in HEV configurations. The outcome of the current research paves its path for implementation of design optimization approaches on such systems in further research directions.

Keywords: Electrical Variable Transmission (EVT), Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), parallel, series, modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Krishna Prasad Regmi, Jun-Bo Tu, Cheng-Qun Hou, Li-Feng Li

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Maxillofacial trauma in a pediatric group of patients is particularly challenging, as these patients have significant differences from adults as far as the facial skeleton is concerned. Mandibular condylar fractures are common presentations to hospitals across the globe and remain the most important cause of temporomandibular joint (TMJ) ankylosis. The etiology and epidemiology of pediatric trauma involving the diacapitular condylar fractures (DFs) have been reported in a large series of patients. Nevertheless, little is known about treatment protocols for DFs in children. Accordingly, the treatment modalities for the management of pediatric fractures also differ. We suggest following the PDA and intracapsular ABC classification of condylar fracture to increase the overall postoperative satisfaction level that bypasses the change of subjective feelings of patients’ from preoperative to the postoperative condition. At the same time, use of 3-D technology and surgical navigation may also increase treatment accuracy.

Keywords: maxillofacial trauma, diacapitular fracture, condylar fracture, PDA classification

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Authors: Manel Youssef, Lotfi Belkacem

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This paper employs multivariate long memory GARCH models to simultaneously estimate mean and conditional variance spillover effects between oil prices and different financial markets. Since different financial assets are traded based on these market sector returns, it’s important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism over time and across these series in order to make optimal portfolio allocation decisions. We examine weekly returns from January 1, 2003 to November 30, 2012 and find evidence of significant transmission of shocks and volatilities between oil prices and some of the examined financial markets. The findings support the idea of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by investors.

Keywords: oil prices, stock indices returns, oil volatility, contagion, DCC-multivariate (FI) GARCH

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Authors: Do-Jin Jang, Sung-Ah Kim

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A kinetic façade responds to user requirements and environmental conditions.  In designing a kinetic façade, kinetic patterns play a key role in determining its performance. This paper proposes a biomimetic method for the multi-objective optimization for kinetic façade design. The autonomous decentralized control system is combined with flocking algorithm. The flocking agents are autonomously reacting to sensor values and bring about kinetic patterns changing over time. A series of experiments were conducted to verify the potential and limitations of the flocking based decentralized control. As a result, it could show the highest performance balancing multiple objectives such as solar radiation and openness among the comparison group.

Keywords: biomimicry, flocking algorithm, autonomous decentralized control, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Bin Ji, Kai Xu, Shunyu Yao, Jingjing Liu, Ye Pan

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Human pose estimation is a popular research area in computer vision for its important application in human-machine interface. In recent years, 2D human pose estimation based on convolution neural network has got great progress and development. However, in more and more practical applications, people often need to deal with tasks based on video. It’s not far-fetched for us to consider how to combine the spatial and temporal information together to achieve a balance between computing cost and accuracy. To address this issue, this study proposes a new spatiotemporal model, namely Spatiotemporal Net (STNet) to combine both temporal and spatial information more rationally. As a result, the predicted keypoints heatmap is potentially more accurate and spatially more precise. Under the condition of ensuring the recognition accuracy, the algorithm deal with spatiotemporal series in a decoupled way, which greatly reduces the computation of the model, thus reducing the resource consumption. This study demonstrate the effectiveness of our network over the Penn Action Dataset, and the results indicate superior performance of our network over the existing methods.

Keywords: convolutional long short-term memory, deep learning, human pose estimation, spatiotemporal series

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Authors: Elizaveta S. Prokofyeva, Svetlana V. Maltseva, Roman D. Zaitsev

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Rapidly evolving modern data analysis technologies in healthcare play a large role in understanding the operation of the system and its characteristics. Nowadays, one of the key tasks in urban healthcare is to optimize the resource allocation. Thus, the application of data analysis in medical institutions to solve optimization problems determines the significance of this study. The purpose of this research was to establish the dependence between the indicators of the effectiveness of the medical institution and its resources. Hospital discharges by diagnosis; hospital days of in-patients and in-patient average length of stay were selected as the performance indicators and the demand of the medical facility. The hospital beds by type of care, medical technology (magnetic resonance tomography, gamma cameras, angiographic complexes and lithotripters) and physicians characterized the resource provision of medical institutions for the developed models. The data source for the research was an open database of the statistical service Eurostat. The choice of the source is due to the fact that the databases contain complete and open information necessary for research tasks in the field of public health. In addition, the statistical database has a user-friendly interface that allows you to quickly build analytical reports. The study provides information on 28 European for the period from 2007 to 2016. For all countries included in the study, with the most accurate and complete data for the period under review, predictive models were developed based on historical panel data. An attempt to improve the quality and the interpretation of the models was made by cluster analysis of the investigated set of countries. The main idea was to assess the similarity of the joint behavior of the variables throughout the time period under consideration to identify groups of similar countries and to construct the separate regression models for them. Therefore, the original time series were used as the objects of clustering. The hierarchical agglomerate algorithm k-medoids was used. The sampled objects were used as the centers of the clusters obtained, since determining the centroid when working with time series involves additional difficulties. The number of clusters used the silhouette coefficient. After the cluster analysis it was possible to significantly improve the predictive power of the models: for example, in the one of the clusters, MAPE error was only 0,82%, which makes it possible to conclude that this forecast is highly reliable in the short term. The obtained predicted values of the developed models have a relatively low level of error and can be used to make decisions on the resource provision of the hospital by medical personnel. The research displays the strong dependencies between the demand for the medical services and the modern medical equipment variable, which highlights the importance of the technological component for the successful development of the medical facility. Currently, data analysis has a huge potential, which allows to significantly improving health services. Medical institutions that are the first to introduce these technologies will certainly have a competitive advantage.

Keywords: data analysis, demand modeling, healthcare, medical facilities

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Authors: Adriana Radan Ungureanu

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The industrial landscape is changing due to the financial crises, poor availability of raw materials, new discoveries and interdisciplinary collaborations. New ideas shape the change through technologies and bring responses for a better life. The process of change is leaded by big players like states and companies, but they cannot keep their places on the market without the help of the small ones. The main tool of change is technology and the entire developed world dedicated efforts for decades in this direction. Even the expectations are not yet met, the research for finding adequate solutions is far from to be stopped. A relevant example is nanotechnology where most of discoveries still remain into laboratory and could not succeed to find the right way to the market. In front of this situation the right question could be: ”Is it worth investing in nanotechnology in the name of an uncertain future but with very little impact on present?” This paper tries to find a positive answer from a three-dimensional approach using a descriptive analyse based on available database supplied by the European case studies, reports, and literature.

Keywords: Europe, KET’s, nanotechnology, technology

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Authors: Girish Chavadappanavar

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The impact of climate on agriculture could result in problems with food security and may threaten the livelihood activities upon which much of the population depends. In the present study, the development of a statistical yield forecast model has been carried out for sugarcane production over Belagavi district, Karnataka using weather variables of crop growing season and past observed yield data for the period of 1971 to 2010. The study shows that this type of statistical yield forecast model could efficiently forecast yield 5 weeks and even 10 weeks in advance of the harvest for sugarcane within an acceptable limit of error. The performance of the model in predicting yields at the district level for sugarcane crops is found quite satisfactory for both validation (2007 and 2008) as well as forecasting (2009 and 2010).In addition to the above study, the climate variability of the area has also been studied, and hence, the data series was tested for Mann Kendall Rank Statistical Test. The maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be significant with opposite trends (decreasing trend in maximum and increasing in minimum temperature), while the other three are found in significant with different trends (rainfall and evening time relative humidity with increasing trend and morning time relative humidity with decreasing trend).

Keywords: climate impact, regression analysis, yield and forecast model, sugar models

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Authors: Hadi Adibi-Asl, Alireza Doosthosseini, Amir Taghavipour

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This paper studies the design of an adaptive control strategy to tune an active steering system for better drivability and maneuverability. In the first step, adaptive control strategy is applied to estimate the uncertain parameters on-line (e.g. cornering stiffness), then the estimated parameters are fed into the pole placement controller to generate corrective feedback gain to improve the steering system dynamic’s characteristics. The simulations are evaluated for three types of road conditions (dry, wet, and icy), and the performance of the adaptive pole placement control (APPC) are compared with pole placement control (PPC) and a passive system. The results show that the APPC strategy significantly improves the yaw rate and side slip angle of a bicycle plant model.

Keywords: adaptive control, active steering, pole placement, vehicle dynamics

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Authors: Krishna N. Gaikwad, V. R. Kakulte

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Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the main cereal crop of tribal people of western part of Nasik district. There is a wide fluctuation in yield due to the factors like uncertain rains, pest diseases, socio-economic status of farmers, lack of awareness and traditional knowledge of farmers about agro-practices. In order to achieve more yield, it is a need to adopt low cost, eco-friendly blue green algal biofertilizer technology. Communication of useful information to needy people is basic need in present situation. The paper reports different communication modes of paddy technologies, adoption about BGA technology, attitudinal changes of farmers and yield of rice production during year 2011 and 2012. The results indicate that there is significant effect of communication modes of improved BGA technology on rice yield.

Keywords: rice, BGA, biofertilizer, Oryza sativa L.

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Authors: Kostas Philippopoulos, Chris G. Tzanis, Despina Deligiorgi

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Climate change adaptation requires the exploitation of renewable energy sources such as wind. However, climate variability can affect the regional wind energy potential and consequently the available wind power production. The goal of the research project is to examine the impact of atmospheric circulation on wind energy production over Greece. In the context of synoptic climatology, the proposed novel methodology employs Self-Organizing Maps for grouping and classifying the atmospheric circulation and nationally-aggregated capacity factor time series for a 30-year period. The results indicate the critical effect of atmospheric circulation on the national aggregated wind energy production values and therefore address the issue of optimum distribution of wind farms for a specific region.

Keywords: wind energy, atmospheric circulation, capacity factor, self-organizing maps

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Authors: Ammar Z. Alwrekiat, Sara Ojeda Gonzalez, Maria Jose Miranda Martel, Antonio Mihi-Ramirez

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This paper analyses the economic situation in Jordan, which has been the political asylum destination for Syrians since 2011. We analyze the effects of the Jordanian situation through the following indicators: international aid, gross domestic product, remittances, and unemployment. A correlation analysis has been used to identify the main connections of these parameters with the reception of refugees. Although the economic effects of Syrian refugees in Jordan are uncertain, it involves an important challenge in the development of migration policies. Jordan has a special economic situation and limited capacities, but the country has provided humanitarian assistance to Syrian refugees. In this case, the support of the international community is of particular importance, taking an important role in the negotiation of international agreements on refugees.

Keywords: correlation analysis, economic implications, migration, refugees

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Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed, Nermeen Coutry

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Lead time is an important measure of supply chain performance. It impacts both customer satisfactions as well as the total cost of inventory. This paper presents the result of a study on the analysis of the customer order lead-time for a multinational company. In the study, the lead time was divided into three stages: order entry, order fulfillment, and order delivery. A sample of size 2,425 order lines from the company records were considered for this study. The sample data includes information regarding customer orders from the time of order entry until order delivery. Data regarding the lead time of each sage for different orders were also provided. Summary statistics on lead time data reveals that about 30% of the orders were delivered after the scheduled due date. The result of the multiple linear regression analysis technique revealed that component type, logistics parameter, order size and the customer type have significant impact on lead time. Data analysis on the stages of lead time indicates that stage 2 consumes over 50% of the lead time. Pareto analysis was made to study the reasons for the customer order delay in each of the 3 stages. Recommendation was given to resolve the problem.

Keywords: lead time reduction, customer satisfaction, service quality, statistical analysis

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Authors: Elena Valionienė, Genutė Kalvaitienė

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The issue of resilience of an individual, an organisation, or an entire ecosystem of organisations has recently become an integral part of the education system, where the uncertainties that lead to societal development in the short term create economic, social, and psycho-emotional instability. The Maritime Transport Sector (MTS) is no exception, and the aim of the article is to model the possibilities of enhancing the professional, sociocultural, and psycho-emotional resilience of MTS specialists to proactively respond to crises caused by uncertainties. The research consists of theoretical model creation that helps to identify general maritime business resilience factors and critical success factors. This can develop high resilience and achieve business excellence in a highly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environment.

Keywords: maritime transport sector, resilience, uncertainties, VUCA

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price

Procedia PDF Downloads 208