Search results for: implied adjusted volatility
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1010

Search results for: implied adjusted volatility

350 Relationship between Physical Activity Level and Functional Movement in 16-years old Schoolchildren: A Multilevel Modelling Approach

Authors: Josip Karuc, Marjeta Mišigoj-Duraković, Goran Marković, Vedran Hadžić, Michael J. Duncan, Hrvoje Podnar, Maroje Sorić

Abstract:

As a part of the CRO-PALS longitudinal study, this investigation aimed to examine the association between different levels of physical activity (PA) and movement quality in 16-years old school children. The total number of participants in this research was 725. Movement quality was assessed via the Functional Movement Screen (FMSTM), and the PA level was estimated using the School Health Action, Planning, and Evaluation System (SHAPES) questionnaire. In addition, body fat and socioeconomic status (SES) were assessed. In order to investigate the association between total FMS score and different levels of PA, multilevel modeling was employed for boys (n=359) and girls (n=366) separately. All models were adjusted for age, body fat, and SES. Among boys, MVPA, MPA, and VPA were not significant predictors of the total FMS score (β=0.000, p=0.78; β=-0.002, p=0.455; β=0.004, p=0.158, respectively). On the contrary, among girls, VPA and MVPA showed significant effects on the total FMS score (β=0.011, p=0.001, β=0.005, p=0.006, respectively). The findings of this research provide evidence that the intensity of PA is a minor but relevant factor in describing the association between PA and movement quality in adolescent girls but not in boys. This means that the PA level does not guarantee optimal functional movement patterns. Therefore, practicing functional movement patterns in an isolated manner and at moderate to vigorous intensity could be beneficial in order to reduce the risk of injury incidence and potential orthopedic abnormalities in later life. This work was supported by the Croatian Science Foundation, grant no: IP-2016-06-9926 and grant no: DOK-2018-01-2328.

Keywords: functional movement screen, fundamental movement patterns, movement quality, pediatric

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
349 Stock Market Integration of Emerging Markets around the Global Financial Crisis: Trends and Explanatory Factors

Authors: Najlae Bendou, Jean-Jacques Lilti, Khalid Elbadraoui

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In this paper, we examine stock market integration of emerging markets around the global financial turmoil of 2007-2008. Following Pukthuanthong and Roll (2009), we measure the integration of 46 emerging countries using the adjusted R-square from the regression of each country's daily index returns on global factors extracted from the covariance matrix computed using dollar-denominated daily index returns of 17 developed countries. Our sample surrounds the global financial crisis and ranges between 2000 and 2018. We analyze results using four cohorts of emerging countries: East Asia & Pacific and South Asia, Europe & Central Asia, Latin America & Caribbean, Middle East & Africa. We find that the level of integration of emerging countries increases at the commencement of the crisis and during the booming phase of the business cycles. It reaches a maximum point in the middle of the crisis and then tends to revert to its pre-crisis level. This pattern tends to be common among the four geographic zones investigated in this study. Finally, we investigate the determinants of stock market integration of emerging countries in our sample using panel regressions. Our results suggest that the degree of stock market integration of these countries should be put into perspective by some macro-economic factors, such as the size of the equity market, school enrollment rate, international liquidity level, stocks traded volume, tax revenue level, imports and exports volumes.

Keywords: correlations, determinants of integration, diversification, emerging markets, financial crisis, integration, markets co-movement, panel regressions, r-square, stock markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 178
348 Application of Microparticulated Whey Proteins in Reduced-Fat Yogurt through Hot-Extrusion: Influence on Physicochemical and Sensory Properties

Authors: M. K. Hossain, J. Keidel, O. Hensel, M. Diakite

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Fat reduced dairy products are holding a potential market due to health reason. Due to less creamy, and pleasantness, reduced and/or low-fat dairy products are getting less consumer acceptance whereas the fat molecule provides smooth, creamy and a pleasant mouthfeel in dairy products especially yogurt & ice cream. This study was aimed to investigate whether the application of microparticulated whey proteins (MWPs) processed by extrusion cooking, the reduced fat yogurt can achieve similar or higher creaminess compared to whole milk (3.8% fat) and skimmed milk (0.5% fat) yogurt. Full cream and skimmed milk were used to prepare natural stirred yogurt, as well as the dry matter content, also adjusted up to 16% with skimmed milk powder. Whey protein concentrates (WPC80) were used to produce MWPs in particle size of d50 > 5 µm, d50 3<5 µm and d50 < 3 µm through the hot-extrusion process with a screw speed of 400, 600 and 1000 rpm respectively. Furthermore, the commercially available microparticulated whey protein called Simplesse® was also applied in order to compare with extruded MWPs. The rheological and sensory properties of yogurt were assessed, and data were analyzed statistically. The applications of extruded MWPs with 600 and 1000 rpm were achieved significantly (p < 0.05) higher creaminess and preference compared to the whole and skimmed milk yogurt whereas, 400 rpm got lower preference. On the other hand, Simplesse® obtained the lowest creaminess and preference compared to other yogurts, although the contribution of dry matter in yogurt was same as extruded MWPs. The creaminess and viscosities were strongly (r = 0.62) correlated, furthermore, the viscosity from sensory evaluation and the dynamic viscosity of yogurt was also significantly (r = 0.72) correlated which clarifies that the performance of sensory panelists as well as the quality of the products.

Keywords: microparticulation, hot-extrusion, reduced-fat yogurt, whey protein concentrate

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347 Anemia Among Pregnant Women in Kuwait: Findings from Kuwait Birth Cohort Study

Authors: Majeda Hammoud

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Background: Anemia during pregnancy increases the risk of delivery by cesarean section, low birth weight, preterm birth, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, and maternal mortality. In this study, we aimed to assess the prevalence of anemia in pregnant women and its associated factors in the Kuwait birth cohort study. Methods: The Kuwait birth cohort (N=1108) was a prospective cohort study in which pregnant women were recruited in the third trimester. Data were collected through personal interviews with mothers who attend antenatal care visits, including data on socio-economic status and lifestyle factors. Blood samples were taken after the recruitment to measure multiple laboratory indicators. Clinical data were extracted from the medical records by a clinician including data on comorbidities. Anemia was defined as having Hemoglobin (Hb) <110 g/L with further classification as mild (100-109 g/L), moderate (70-99 g/L), or severe (<70 g/L). Predictors of anemia were classified as underlying or direct factors, and logistic regression was used to investigate their association with anemia. Results: The mean Hb level in the study group was 115.21 g/L (95%CI: 114.56- 115.87 g/L), with significant differences between age groups (p=0.034). The prevalence of anemia was 28.16% (95%CI: 25.53-30.91%), with no significant difference by age group (p=0.164). Of all 1108 pregnant women, 8.75% had moderate anemia, and 19.40% had mild anemia, but no pregnant women had severe anemia. In multivariable analysis, getting pregnant while using contraception, adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.73(95%CI:1.01-2.96); p=0.046 and current use of supplements, AOR 0.50 (95%CI: 0.26-0.95); p=0.035 were significantly associated with anemia (underlying factors). From the direct factors group, only iron and ferritin levels were significantly associated with anemia (P<0.001). Conclusion: Although the severe form of anemia is low among pregnant women in Kuwait, mild and moderate anemia remains a significant health problem despite free access to antenatal care.

Keywords: anemia, pregnancy, hemoglobin, ferritin

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346 A Cross-Sectional Assessment of Maternal Food Insecurity in Urban Settings

Authors: Theresia F. Mrema, Innocent Semali

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Food insecurity to pregnant women seriously impedes efforts to reduce maternal mortality in resource poor countries. This study was carried out to assess determinants food insecurity among pregnant women in urban areas. A cross sectional study design was used to collect data for the period of two weeks. A structured questionnaire with both closed and open ended questions was used to interview a total of 225 randomly selected pregnant women who attend the three randomly selected antenatal care clinics in Temeke Municipal council. The food insecurity was measured using a modified version of the USDA’s core food security module which consists of 15questions. Logistic regression analysis was used to obtain strength of association between dependent and independent variables. Among 225 pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) interviewed 55.1% were food insecure. Food insecurity declined with increasing household wealth, it was also significantly low among those with less than three children compared with having more. Low level of food insecurity was associated with having Secondary education (Adjusted OR=0.24; 95%CI, 0.12–0.48), College Education (OR=0.156; 95%CI, 0.05-0.46), paid employment (OR=0.322; 95%CI, 0.11-0.96) and high income (OR=0.031; 95%CI, 0.01–0.07). Also, having head of the household with secondary education (OR=0.51; 95%CI, 0.07-0.32) college education (OR=0.04; 95%CI, 0.01-0.13) and paid employment (OR=0.225; 95%CI, 0.12-0.42). Food insecurity is a significant problem among pregnant women in Temeke Municipal which might significantly affect health of the pregnant woman and foetus due to higher maternal malnutrition which increases risk of miscarriage, maternal and infant mortality, and poor pregnancy outcomes. The study suggests a multi-sectoral approach in order to address this problem.

Keywords: food security, nutrition, pregnant women, urban settings

Procedia PDF Downloads 353
345 Behavioral Analysis of Stock Using Selective Indicators from Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Authors: Vish Putcha, Chandrasekhar Putcha, Siva Hari

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In the current digital era of free trading and pandemic-driven remote work culture, markets worldwide gained momentum for retail investors to trade from anywhere easily. The number of retail traders rose to 24% of the market from 15% at the pre-pandemic level. Most of them are young retail traders with high-risk tolerance compared to the previous generation of retail traders. This trend boosted the growth of subscription-based market predictors and market data vendors. Young traders are betting on these predictors, assuming one of them is correct. However, 90% of retail traders are on the losing end. This paper presents multiple indicators and attempts to derive behavioral patterns from the underlying stocks. The two major indicators that traders and investors follow are technical and fundamental. The famous investor, Warren Buffett, adheres to the “Value Investing” method that is based on a stock’s fundamental Analysis. In this paper, we present multiple indicators from various methods to understand the behavior patterns of stocks. For this research, we picked five stocks with a market capitalization of more than $200M, listed on the exchange for more than 20 years, and from different industry sectors. To study the behavioral pattern over time for these five stocks, a total of 8 indicators are chosen from fundamental, technical, and financial indicators, such as Price to Earning (P/E), Price to Book Value (P/B), Debt to Equity (D/E), Beta, Volatility, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages and Dividend yields, followed by detailed mathematical Analysis. This is an interdisciplinary paper between various disciplines of Engineering, Accounting, and Finance. The research takes a new approach to identify clear indicators affecting stocks. Statistical Analysis of the data will be performed in terms of the probabilistic distribution, then follow and then determine the probability of the stock price going over a specific target value. The Chi-square test will be used to determine the validity of the assumed distribution. Preliminary results indicate that this approach is working well. When the complete results are presented in the final paper, they will be beneficial to the community.

Keywords: stock pattern, stock market analysis, stock predictions, trading, investing, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, quantitative trading, financial analysis, behavioral analysis

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344 Knowledge and Utilization of Partograph among Obstetric Care Givers in Public Health Institutions of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Authors: Engida Yisma, Berhanu Dessalegn, Ayalew Astatkie, Nebreed Fesseha

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Background: The use of the partograph is a well-known best practice for quality monitoring of labour and subsequent prevention of obstructed and prolonged labour. However, a number of cases of obstructed labour do happen in health facilities due to poor quality of intrapartum care. Methods: A cross-sectional quantitative study assessed knowledge and utilization of partograph among obstetric care givers in public health institutions of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia using a structured interviewer administered questionnaire. The collected data was analyzed using SPSS version 16.0. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with knowledge and use of partograph among obstetric care givers. Results: Knowledge about the partograph was fair: 189 (96.6%) of all the respondents correctly mentioned at least one component of the partograph, 104 (53.3%) correctly explained the function of alert line and 161 (82.6%) correctly explained the function of action line. The study showed that 112 (57.3%) of the obstetric care givers at public health institutions reportedly utilized partograph to monitor mothers in labour. The utilization of the partograph was significantly higher among obstetric care givers working in health centres (67.9%) compared to those working in hospitals (34.4%) [Adjusted OR = 3.63(95%CI: 1.81, 7.28)]. Conclusions: A significant percentage of obstetric care givers had fair knowledge of the partograph and why it is necessary to use it in the management of labour and over half of obstetric care givers reported use of the partograph to monitor mothers in labour. Pre-service and on-job training of obstetric care givers on the use of the partograph should be given emphasis. Mandatory health facility policy is also recommended to ensure safety of women in labour in public health facilities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Keywords: partograph, knowledge, utilization, obstetric care givers, public health institutions

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343 Factors Associated with Overweight and Obesity among Recipients of Antiretroviral Therapy at HIV Clinics in Botswana

Authors: Jose G. Tshikuka, Goabaone Rankgoane-Pono, Mgaywa G. M. D. Magafu, Julius C. Mwita, Tiny Masupe, Fortunat M. Kandanda, Shimeles G. Hamda, Roy Tapera, Mooketsi Molefi, John T. Tlhakanelo

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Background: Factors associated with overweight and obesity among antiretroviral therapy (ART) recipients have not been sufficiently studied in Botswana. We aimed to study (i) the prevalence and trends in overweight/obesity by duration of exposure to ART among recipients, (ii) changes in body mass index (BMI) categories among recipients before ART initiation (BMI-1) and after ART initiation (BMI-2), (iii) associations between ART and overweight/obesity and (iv) factors associated with BMI changes among ART recipients. Methods: A 12 years retrospective record-based review was conducted. Factors potentially associated with BMI change among patients after at least three years of ART exposure were examined using multiple regression model. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. ART regimens, duration of exposure to ART, and recipients’ demographic and biomedical characteristics including the presence or absence of diabetes mellitus related comorbidities (DRC) were investigated as potential factors associated with overweight/obesity. Results: Twenty-nine percent of recipients were overweight, 16.6% had obesity of whom 2.4% were morbidly-obese at the last clinic visit. Overweight/obesity recipients were more likely to be female, to have DRC and less likely to have nadir CD4 count or CD4 count between 201 – 249 cells/mm³. Neither the first-line nor the second-, third-line ART regimens predicted overweight/obesity more than the other and neither did the duration of exposure to ART. No significant linear trends were observed in the prevalence of overweight/obesity by the duration of exposure to ART. Conclusions: These results indicate that overweight/obesity seen among ART recipients is not directly induced by ART. ART used CD4 and/or DRC pathway to induce overweight/obesity seen among recipients; suggesting that, weight gain documented herein is likely a reflection of improved health status that mirrors trends in the general population or a DRC related effect. Weight management programs may be important components of HIV care.

Keywords: overweight/obesity, recipients of antiretroviral therapy, HIV/AIDS, Botswana

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342 Effect of Fresh Concrete Curing Methods on Its Compressive Strength

Authors: Xianghe Dai, Dennis Lam, Therese Sheehan, Naveed Rehman, Jie Yang

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Concrete is one of the most used construction materials that may be made onsite as fresh concrete and then placed in formwork to produce the desired shapes of structures. It has been recognized that the raw materials and mix proportion of concrete dominate the mechanical characteristics of hardened concrete, and the curing method and environment applied to the concrete in early stages of hardening will significantly influence the concrete properties, such as compressive strength, durability, permeability etc. In construction practice, there are various curing methods to maintain the presence of mixing water throughout the early stages of concrete hardening. They are also beneficial to concrete in hot weather conditions as they provide cooling and prevent the evaporation of water. Such methods include ponding or immersion, spraying or fogging, saturated wet covering etc. Also there are various curing methods that may be implemented to decrease the level of water lost which belongs to the concrete surface, such as putting a layer of impervious paper, plastic sheeting or membrane on the concrete to cover it. In the concrete material laboratory, accelerated strength gain methods supply the concrete with heat and additional moisture by applying live steam, coils that are subject to heating or pads that have been warmed electrically. Currently when determining the mechanical parameters of a concrete, the concrete is usually sampled from fresh concrete on site and then cured and tested in laboratories where standardized curing procedures are adopted. However, in engineering practice, curing procedures in the construction sites after the placing of concrete might be very different from the laboratory criteria, and this includes some standard curing procedures adopted in the laboratory that can’t be applied on site. Sometimes the contractor compromises the curing methods in order to reduce construction costs etc. Obviously the difference between curing procedures adopted in the laboratory and those used on construction sites might over- or under-estimate the real concrete quality. This paper presents the effect of three typical curing methods (air curing, water immersion curing, plastic film curing) and of maintaining concrete in steel moulds on the compressive strength development of normal concrete. In this study, Portland cement with 30% fly ash was used and different curing periods, 7 days, 28 days and 60 days were applied. It was found that the highest compressive strength was observed from concrete samples to which 7-day water immersion curing was applied and from samples maintained in steel moulds up to the testing date. The research results implied that concrete used as infill in steel tubular members might develop a higher strength than predicted by design assumptions based on air curing methods. Wrapping concrete with plastic film as a curing method might delay the concrete strength development in the early stages. Water immersion curing for 7 days might significantly increase the concrete compressive strength.

Keywords: compressive strength, air curing, water immersion curing, plastic film curing, maintaining in steel mould, comparison

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341 Impact of Entrepreneurship Education on Entrepreneurial Intention: A Case Study of Al Akhawayn University

Authors: Sara atibi, Azzeddine Atibi, Salim Ahmed, Khadija El Kababi

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Given the crucial impact of entrepreneurship on socio-economic development, nations are making various efforts to support and encourage it. Entrepreneurship education has proven to be a vital lever in stimulating business creation. This research is part of this dynamic, which is increasingly attracting the attention of educational policymakers. Indeed, entrepreneurship education provides students with the skills, knowledge, and motivation needed to succeed in various entrepreneurial contexts. it objective is to demonstrate the impact of entrepreneurship education on the development of entrepreneurial intention among students at Al Akhawayn University and to determine whether introducing this discipline at the secondary school level can strengthen this intention, with the aim of proposing measures to foster entrepreneurship. To achieve this objective, it conducted a literature review on entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial intention, and entrepreneurship education to draw from existing experiences in the field. it then carried out an exploratory study through a qualitative survey. it collected real data via an online questionnaire hosted on Google Drive. This questionnaire was tested on a sample of 100 students, adjusted, and validated by three university professors who are experts in the field, and then administered to the students of Al Akhawayn University. The results of our survey among students at Al Akhawayn University clearly show that the development of entrepreneurial intention increases among students who have taken entrepreneurship courses or participated in seminars, thus promoting business creation and entrepreneurship. A minority of these students still choose to work in the private or public sector; however, the majority express a strong desire to become entrepreneurs. We also noted that some students believe entrepreneurship depends solely on entrepreneurial training, while others think it relies on a combination of training, resources, and personal will.

Keywords: entrepreneurship education, entrepreneurial intention, business creation, al akhawayn university, secondary school curriculum

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340 The First Japanese-Japanese Dictionary for Non-Japanese Using the Defining Vocabulary

Authors: Minoru Moriguchi

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This research introduces the concept of a monolingual Japanese dictionary for non-native speakers of Japanese, whose temporal title is Dictionary of Contemporary Japanese for Advanced Learners (DCJAL). As the language market is very small compared with English, a monolingual Japanese dictionary for non-native speakers, containing sufficient entries, has not been published yet. In such a dictionary environment, Japanese-language learners are using bilingual dictionaries or monolingual Japanese dictionaries for Japanese people. This research started in 2017, as a project team which consists of four Japanese and two non-native speakers, all of whom are linguists of the Japanese language. The team has been trying to propose the concept of a monolingual dictionary for non-native speakers of Japanese and to provide the entry list, the definition samples, the list of defining vocabulary, and the writing manual. As the result of seven-year research, DCJAL has come to have 28,060 head words, 539 entry examples, 4,598-word defining vocabulary, and the writing manual. First, the number of the entry was determined as about 30,000, based on an experimental method using existing six dictionaries. To make the entry list satisfying this number, words suitable for DCJAL were extracted from the Tsukuba corpus of the Japanese language, and later the entry list was adjusted according to the experience as Japanese instructor. Among the head words of the entry list, 539 words were selected and added with lexicographical information such as proficiency level, pronunciation, writing system (hiragana, katakana, kanji, or alphabet), definition, example sentences, idiomatic expression, synonyms, antonyms, grammatical information, sociolinguistic information, and etymology. While writing the definition of the above 539 words, the list of the defining vocabulary was constructed, based on frequent vocabulary used in a Japanese monolingual dictionary. Although the concept of DCJAL has been almost perfected, it may need some more adjustment, and the research is continued.

Keywords: monolingual dictionary, the Japanese language, non-native speaker of Japanese, defining vocabulary

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339 State and Determinant of Caregiver’s Mental Health in Thailand: A Household Level Analysis

Authors: Ruttana Phetsitong, Patama Vapattanawong, Malee Sunpuwan, Marc Voelker

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The majority of care for older people at home in Thai society falls upon caregivers resulting in caregiver’s mental health problem. Beyond individual characteristics, household factors might have a profound effect on the caregiver’s mental health. But reliable data capturing this at the household level have been limited to date. The objectives of the present study were to explore the levels of Thai caregiver’s mental health and to investigate the factors affecting the mental health at household level. Data were obtained from the 2011 National Survey of Thai Older Persons conducted by the National Statistical Office of Thailand. Caregiver’s mental health was measured by using the 15- items-short version of the Thai Mental Health Indicator (TMHI-15) developed by the Department of Mental Health, the Ministry of Public Health. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to explore the impact of potential factors on caregiver’s mental health. The THMI-15 produced an overall average caregiver mental health score of 30.9 out of 45 (SD 5.3). The score can be categorized into good (34.02-45), fair (27.01-34), and poor (0-27). Duration of care for older people, household wealth, and functional dependency of the older people significantly predicted total caregiver’s mental health. Household economic factor was key in predicting better mental health. Compared to those poorest households, the adjusted effect of the fifth quintile household wealth was high (OR=2.34; 95%CI=1.47-3.73). The findings of this study provide a fuller picture to a better understanding of the level and factors that cause the mental health of Thai caregivers. Health care providers and policymakers should consider these factors when designing interventions aimed at alleviating caregiver’s psychological burden when provided care for older people at home.

Keywords: caregiver’s mental health, household, older people, Thailand

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338 Women Empowerment, Joint Income Ownership and Planning for Building Household Resilience on Climate Change: The Case of Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania

Authors: S. I. Mwasha, Z. Robinson, M. Musgrave

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Communities, especially in the global south, have been reported to have low adaptive capacity to cope with climate change impacts. As an attempt to improve adaptive capacity, most studies have focused on understanding the access of the household resources which can contribute to resilience against changes. However, little attention has been shown in uncovering how the household resources could be used and their implications to resilience against weather related shocks. By using a case study qualitative study, this project analyzed the trends in livelihoods practices and their implication to social equity. The study was done in three different villages within Kilimanjaro region. Each in different agro ecological zone. Two focus group discussions in two agro-ecological zones were done, one for women and another one for men except in the third zone where focus group participant were combined together (due to unforeseen circumstances). In the focus group discussion, several participatory rural appraisal tools were used to understand trend in crops and animal production and the use in which it is made: climate trends, soil fertility, trees and other livelihoods resources. Data were analyzed using thematic network analysis. Using an amalgam of magnitude (to note weather comments made were positive or negative) and descriptive coding (to note the topic), six basic themes were identified under social equity: individual ownership, family ownership, love and respect, women no education, women access to education as well as women access to loans. The results implied that despite mum and dad in the family providing labor in the agro pastoral activities, there were separations on who own what, as well as individual obligations in the family. Dad owned mostly income creating crops and mum, food crops. therefore, men controlled the economy which made some of them become arrogant and spend money to meet their interests sometimes not taking care of the family. Separation in ownership was reported to contribute to conflicts in the household as well as causing controversy on the use income is spent. Men were reported to use income to promote matriarchy system. However, as women were capacitated through access to education and loans they become closer to their husband and get access to own and plan the income together for the interest of the family. Joint ownership and planning on the household resources were reported to be important if families have to better adapt to climate change. The aim of this study is not to show women empowerment and joint ownership and planning as only remedy for low adaptive capacity. There is the need to understand other practices that either directly or indirectly impacts environmental integrity, food security and economic development for household resilience against changing climate.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, climate change, resilience, women empowerment

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337 Geosynthetic Containment Systems for Coastal Protection: An Indian Perspective

Authors: Tom Elias, Kiran G. Shirlal

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Coastal erosion is one of the major issue faced by maritime countries, globally. More than 1200 km stretch of Indian coastline is marked eroding. There have been numerous attempts to impede the erosion rate and to attain equilibrium beach profiles. High cost and unavailability of natural rocks forced coastal engineers to find alternatives for conventional hard options like seawalls and groynes. Geosynthetic containment systems, emerged in the mid 20th century proved promising in catering coastal protection in countries like Australia, Germany and United States. The present study aims at reviewing Indian timeline of protection works that uses geosynthetic containment systems. Indian exploration regarding geosynthetic containment system dates back to early 2000s. Generally, protection structures use geosynthetics in the form of Geotubes, Geocontainers, and Geobags with Geotubes being most widely used in the form of submerged reefs, seawalls, groynes and breakwaters. Sand and dredged waste are used to fill these containment systems with calculated sand fill ratio. Reviewing the prominent protection works constructed in the east and west coast of India provides an insight into benefits and the difficulties faced by the practical installation. Initially, geosynthetic structures were considered as a temporary protection method prior to the construction of some other hard structure. Later Dahanu, Hamala and Pentha experiences helped in establishing geotubes as an alternative to conventional structures. Nearshore geotubes reefs aimed to attain equilibrium beach served its purpose in Hamala and Dahanu, Maharashtra, while reef constructed at Candolim, Goa underwent serious damage due to Toe Scour. In situ filling by pumping of sand slurry as in case of Shankarpur Seawall, West Bengal remains as a major concern. Geosynthetic systems supplemented by gabions and rock armours improves the wave dissipation, stability and reflection characteristics as implied in Pentha Coast, Odisha, Hazira, Gujarat and Uppada, Andhra Pradesh. Keeping improper design and deliberate destruction by vandals apart, geosynthetic containment systems offer a cost-effective alternative to conventional coastal protection methods in India. Additionally, geosynthetics supports marine growth in its surface which enhances its demand as an eco-friendly material and encourages usage.

Keywords: coastal protection, geotubes, geobags, geocontainers

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336 Multi-Criteria Decision Making Tool for Assessment of Biorefinery Strategies

Authors: Marzouk Benali, Jawad Jeaidi, Behrang Mansoornejad, Olumoye Ajao, Banafsheh Gilani, Nima Ghavidel Mehr

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Canadian forest industry is seeking to identify and implement transformational strategies for enhanced financial performance through the emerging bioeconomy or more specifically through the concept of the biorefinery. For example, processing forest residues or surplus of biomass available on the mill sites for the production of biofuels, biochemicals and/or biomaterials is one of the attractive strategies along with traditional wood and paper products and cogenerated energy. There are many possible process-product biorefinery pathways, each associated with specific product portfolios with different levels of risk. Thus, it is not obvious which unique strategy forest industry should select and implement. Therefore, there is a need for analytical and design tools that enable evaluating biorefinery strategies based on a set of criteria considering a perspective of sustainability over the short and long terms, while selecting the existing core products as well as selecting the new product portfolio. In addition, it is critical to assess the manufacturing flexibility to internalize the risk from market price volatility of each targeted bio-based product in the product portfolio, prior to invest heavily in any biorefinery strategy. The proposed paper will focus on introducing a systematic methodology for designing integrated biorefineries using process systems engineering tools as well as a multi-criteria decision making framework to put forward the most effective biorefinery strategies that fulfill the needs of the forest industry. Topics to be covered will include market analysis, techno-economic assessment, cost accounting, energy integration analysis, life cycle assessment and supply chain analysis. This will be followed by describing the vision as well as the key features and functionalities of the I-BIOREF software platform, developed by CanmetENERGY of Natural Resources Canada. Two industrial case studies will be presented to support the robustness and flexibility of I-BIOREF software platform: i) An integrated Canadian Kraft pulp mill with lignin recovery process (namely, LignoBoost™); ii) A standalone biorefinery based on ethanol-organosolv process.

Keywords: biorefinery strategies, bioproducts, co-production, multi-criteria decision making, tool

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335 Investigation of the Effects of the Whey Addition on the Biogas Production of a Reactor Using Cattle Manure for Biogas Production

Authors: Behnam Mahdiyan Nasl

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In a lab-scale research, the effects of feeding whey into the biogas system and how to solve the probable problems arising were analysed. In the study a semi-continuous glass reactor, having a total capacity of 13 liters and having a working capacity of 10 liters, was placed in an incubator, and the temperature was tried to be held at 38 °C. At first, the reactor was operated by adding 5 liters of animal manure and water with a ratio of 1/1. By passing time, the production rate of the gas reduced intensively that on the fourth day there was no production of gas and the system stopped working. In this condition, the pH was adjusted and by adding NaOH, it was increased from 5.4 to 7. On 48th day, the first gas measurement was done and an amount of 12.07 % of CH₄ was detected. After making buffer in the ambient, the number of bacteria existing in the cattle’s manure and contributing to the gas production was thought to be not adequate, and up to 20 % of its volume 2 liters of mud was added to the reactor. 7 days after adding the anaerobic mud, second gas measurement was carried out, and biogas including 43 % CH₄ was obtained. From the 61st day of the study, the cheese whey with the animal manure was started to be added with an amount of 40 mL per day. However, by passing time, the raising of the microorganisms existed in the whey (especially Ni and Co), the percent of methane in the biogas decreased. In fact, 2 weeks after adding PAS, the gas measurement was done and 36,97 % CH₄ was detected. 0,06 mL Ni-Co (to gain a concentration of 0.05 mg/L in the reactor’s mixture) solution was added to the system for 15 days. To find out the effect of the solution on archaea, 7 days after stopping addition of the solution, methane gas was found to have a 9,03 % increase and reach 46 %. Lastly, the effects of adding molasses to the reactor were investigated. The effects of its activity on the bacteria was analysed by adding 4 grams of it to the system. After adding molasses in 10 days, according to the last measurement, the amount of methane gas reached up to 49%.

Keywords: biogas, cheese whey, cattle manure, energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 328
334 Impact of Helicobacter pylori Infection on Colorectal Adenoma-Colorectal Carcinoma Sequence

Authors: Jannis Kountouras, Nikolaos Kapetanakis, Stergios A. Polyzos, Apostolis Papaeftymiou, Panagiotis Katsinelos, Ioannis Venizelos, Christina Nikolaidou, Christos Zavos, Iordanis Romiopoulos, Elena Tsiaousi, Evangelos Kazakos, Michael Doulberis

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Background & Aims: Helicobacter pylori infection (Hp-I) has been recognized as a substantial risk agent involved in gastrointestinal (GI) tract oncogenesis by stimulating cancer stem cells (CSCs), oncogenes, immune surveillance processes, and triggering GI microbiota dysbiosis. We aimed to investigate the possible involvement of active Hp-I in the sequence: chronic inflammation–adenoma–colorectal cancer (CRC) development. Methods: Four pillars were investigated: (i) endoscopic and conventional histological examinations of patients with CRC, colorectal adenomas (CRA) versus controls to detect the presence of active Hp-I; (ii) immunohistochemical determination of the presence of Hp; expression of CD44, an indicator of CSCs and/or bone marrow-derived stem cells (BMDSCs); expressions of oncogene Ki67 and anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 protein; (iii) expression of CD45, indicator of immune surveillance locally (assessing mainly T and B lymphocytes locally); and (iv) correlation of the studied parameters with the presence or absence of Hp-I. Results: Among 50 patients with CRC, 25 with CRA, and 10 controls, a significantly higher presence of Hp-I in the CRA (68%) and CRC group (84%) were found compared with controls (30%). The presence of Hp-I with accompanying immunohistochemical expression of CD44 in biopsy specimens was revealed in a high proportion of patients with CRA associated with moderate/severe dysplasia (88%) and CRC patients with moderate/severe degree of malignancy (91%). Comparable results were also obtained for Ki67, Bcl-2, and CD45 immunohistochemical expressions. Concluding Remarks: Hp-I seems to be involved in the sequence: CRA – dysplasia – CRC, similarly to the upper GI tract oncogenesis, by several pathways such as the following: Beyond Hp-I associated insulin resistance, the major underlying mechanism responsible for the metabolic syndrome (MetS) that increase the risk of colorectal neoplasms, as implied by other Hp-I related MetS pathologies, such as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and upper GI cancer, the disturbance of the normal GI microbiota (i.e., dysbiosis) and the formation of an irritative biofilm could contribute to a perpetual inflammatory upper GIT and colon mucosal damage, stimulating CSCs or recruiting BMDSCs and affecting oncogenes and immune surveillance processes. Further large-scale relative studies with a pathophysiological perspective are necessary to demonstrate in-depth this relationship.

Keywords: Helicobacter pylori, colorectal cancer, colorectal adenomas, gastrointestinal oncogenesis

Procedia PDF Downloads 144
333 Extent of Derivative Usage, Firm Value and Risk: An Empirical Study on Pakistan Non-Financial Firms

Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

Procedia PDF Downloads 353
332 Statistical Analysis and Optimization of a Process for CO2 Capture

Authors: Muftah H. El-Naas, Ameera F. Mohammad, Mabruk I. Suleiman, Mohamed Al Musharfy, Ali H. Al-Marzouqi

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CO2 capture and storage technologies play a significant role in contributing to the control of climate change through the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. The present study evaluates and optimizes CO2 capture through a process, where carbon dioxide is passed into pH adjusted high salinity water and reacted with sodium chloride to form a precipitate of sodium bicarbonate. This process is based on a modified Solvay process with higher CO2 capture efficiency, higher sodium removal, and higher pH level without the use of ammonia. The process was tested in a bubble column semi-batch reactor and was optimized using response surface methodology (RSM). CO2 capture efficiency and sodium removal were optimized in terms of major operating parameters based on four levels and variables in Central Composite Design (CCD). The operating parameters were gas flow rate (0.5–1.5 L/min), reactor temperature (10 to 50 oC), buffer concentration (0.2-2.6%) and water salinity (25-197 g NaCl/L). The experimental data were fitted to a second-order polynomial using multiple regression and analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The optimum values of the selected variables were obtained using response optimizer. The optimum conditions were tested experimentally using desalination reject brine with salinity ranging from 65,000 to 75,000 mg/L. The CO2 capture efficiency in 180 min was 99% and the maximum sodium removal was 35%. The experimental and predicted values were within 95% confidence interval, which demonstrates that the developed model can successfully predict the capture efficiency and sodium removal using the modified Solvay method.

Keywords: CO2 capture, water desalination, Response Surface Methodology, bubble column reactor

Procedia PDF Downloads 284
331 Influence of Organic Supplements on Shoot Multiplication Efficiency of Phaius tankervilleae var. alba

Authors: T. Punjansing, M. Nakkuntod, S. Homchan, P. Inthima, A. Kongbangkerd

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The influence of organic supplements on growth and multiplication efficiency of Phaius tankervilleae var. alba seedlings was investigated. 12 week-old seedlings were cultured on half-strength semi-solid Murashige and Skoog (MS) medium supplemented with 30 g/L sucrose, 8 g/L agar and various concentrations of coconut water (0, 50, 100, 150 and 200 mL/L) combined with potato extract (0, 25 and 50 g/L) and the pH was adjusted to 5.8 prior to autoclaving. The cultures were then kept under constant photoperiod (16 h light: 8 h dark) at 25 ± 2 °C for 12 weeks. The highest number of shoots (3.0 shoots/explant) was obtained when cultured on the medium added with 50 ml/L coconut water and 50 g/L potato extract whereas the highest number of leaves (5.9 leaves/explant) and roots (6.1 roots/explant) could receive on the medium supplemented with 150 ml/L coconut water and 50 g/L potato extract. with 150 ml/L coconut water and 50 g/L potato extract. Additionally, plantlets of P. tankervilleae var. alba were transferred to grow into seven different substrates i.e. soil, sand, coconut husk chip, soil-sand mix (1: 1), soil-coconut husk chip mix (1: 1), sand-coconut husk chip mix (1: 1) and soil-sand-coconut husk chip mix (1: 1: 1) for four weeks. The results found that acclimatized plants showed 100% of survivals when sand, coconut husk chip and sand-coconut husk chip mix are used as substrates. The number of leaves induced by sand-coconut husk chip mix was significantly higher than that planted in other substrates (P > 0.05). Meanwhile, no significant difference in new shoot formation among these substrates was observed (P < 0.05). This precursory developing protocol was likely to be applied for more large scale of plant production as well as conservation of germplasm of this orchid species.

Keywords: organic supplements, acclimatization, Phaius tankervilleae var. alba, orchid

Procedia PDF Downloads 224
330 Linguistic Competence Analysis and the Development of Speaking Instructional Material

Authors: Felipa M. Rico

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Linguistic oral competence plays a vital role in attaining effective communication. Since the English language is considered as universally used language and has a high demand skill needed in the work-place, mastery is the expected output from learners. To achieve this, learners should be given integrated differentiated tasks which help them develop and strengthen the expected skills. This study aimed to develop speaking instructional supplementary material to enhance the English linguistic competence of Grade 9 students in areas of pronunciation, intonation and stress, voice projection, diction and fluency. A descriptive analysis was utilized to analyze the speaking level of performance of the students in order to employ appropriate strategies. There were two sets of respondents: 178 Grade 9 students selected through a stratified sampling and chosen at random. The other set comprised English teachers who evaluated the usefulness of the devised teaching materials. A teacher conducted a speaking test and activities were employed to analyze the speaking needs of students. Observation and recordings were also used to evaluate the students’ performance. The findings revealed that the English pronunciation of the students was slightly unclear at times, but generally fair. There were lapses but generally they rated moderate in intonation and stress, because of other language interference. In terms of voice projection, students have erratic high volume pitch. For diction, the students’ ability to produce comprehensible language is limited, and as to fluency, the choice of vocabulary and use of structure were severely limited. Based on the students’ speaking needs analyses, the supplementary material devised was based on Nunan’s IM model, incorporating context of daily life and global work settings, considering the principle that language is best learned in the actual meaningful situation. To widen the mastery of skill, a rich learning environment, filled with a variety instructional material tends to foster faster acquisition of the requisite skills for sustained learning and development. The role of IM is to encourage information to stick in the learners’ mind, as what is seen is understood more than what is heard. Teachers say they found the IM “very useful.” This implied that English teachers could adopt the materials to improve the speaking skills of students. Further, teachers should provide varied opportunities for students to get involved in real life situations where they could take turns in asking and answering questions and share information related to the activities. This would minimize anxiety among students in the use of the English language.

Keywords: diction, fluency, intonation, instructional materials, linguistic competence

Procedia PDF Downloads 237
329 Importance of Different Spatial Parameters in Water Quality Analysis within Intensive Agricultural Area

Authors: Marina Bubalo, Davor Romić, Stjepan Husnjak, Helena Bakić

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Even though European Council Directive 91/676/EEC known as Nitrates Directive was adopted in 1991, the issue of water quality preservation in areas of intensive agricultural production still persist all over Europe. High nitrate nitrogen concentrations in surface and groundwater originating from diffuse sources are one of the most important environmental problems in modern intensive agriculture. The fate of nitrogen in soil, surface and groundwater in agricultural area is mostly affected by anthropogenic activity (i.e. agricultural practice) and hydrological and climatological conditions. The aim of this study was to identify impact of land use, soil type, soil vulnerability to pollutant percolation, and natural aquifer vulnerability to nitrate occurrence in surface and groundwater within an intensive agricultural area. The study was set in Varaždin County (northern Croatia), which is under significant influence of the large rivers Drava and Mura and due to that entire area is dominated by alluvial soil with shallow active profile mainly on gravel base. Negative agricultural impact on water quality in this area is evident therefore the half of selected county is a part of delineated nitrate vulnerable zones (NVZ). Data on water quality were collected from 7 surface and 8 groundwater monitoring stations in the County. Also, recent study of the area implied detailed inventory of agricultural production and fertilizers use with the aim to produce new agricultural land use database as one of dominant parameters. The analysis of this database done using ArcGIS 10.1 showed that 52,7% of total County area is agricultural land and 59,2% of agricultural land is used for intensive agricultural production. On the other hand, 56% of soil within the county is classified as soil vulnerable to pollutant percolation. The situation is similar with natural aquifer vulnerability; northern part of the county ranges from high to very high aquifer vulnerability. Statistical analysis of water quality data is done using SPSS 13.0. Cluster analysis group both surface and groundwater stations in two groups according to nitrate nitrogen concentrations. Mean nitrate nitrogen concentration in surface water – group 1 ranges from 4,2 to 5,5 mg/l and in surface water – group 2 from 24 to 42 mg/l. The results are similar, but evidently higher, in groundwater samples; mean nitrate nitrogen concentration in group 1 ranges from 3,9 to 17 mg/l and in group 2 from 36 to 96 mg/l. ANOVA analysis confirmed statistical significance between stations that are classified in the same group. The previously listed parameters (land use, soil type, etc.) were used in factorial correspondence analysis (FCA) to detect importance of each stated parameter in local water quality. Since stated parameters mostly cannot be altered, there is obvious necessity for more precise and more adapted land management in such conditions.

Keywords: agricultural area, nitrate, factorial correspondence analysis, water quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 256
328 The Influence of Dietary Components on Acne; A Case-Control Survey

Authors: Atiya Mahmood, Mubasharah Hanif, Ghazala Butt, Mehwish Zahoor Ahmed

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Acne vulgaris affects millions of adults.Despite extensive research, its food related etiology remains elusive. Objective:To assess the correlation between dietary intake and acne through a case-control survey of 300,15-25 year old respondents living in Pakistan. 50 acne patients and 150 age-and ethnicity-matched controls completed a questionnaire.Cases and controls were separated using SPSS-22 and univariate analysis was performed using the chi-square test. p value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. We used adjusted odds ratios to assess the strength of associations with 95% confidence intervals. Most of the respondents were females(91.3%).Most(48.7%)acne patients were 20-25 yearsold.Acne severity was mild in 50%,moderate in 34%,severe in14%and very severe in 2%.Frequent low-fat foods(p<0.001)(OR=3.22),fat intake(p=0.03)(OR = 1.629),sweet snacks i.e. biscuits and candies etc. (p=0.013) (OR=1.9254), soft drinks(p= 0.045)(OR= 1.9091),butter(p<0.001) (OR= 1.8185),dairy products(p=0.043)(OR=0.624),salty foods(p= 0.011)(OR=1.961),chocolate (p=0.028)(OR=1.669), were associated with increased acne risk.No association was found with consumption of fried foods, desserts, fruit juices, raw fruit, fast food, vegetables, cheese, soy products, salt, and corn. Increased butter and chocolate consumption were linked to more severe forms of acne(p=0.049 and p=0.005 respectively).Most respondents (n=218) considered themselves to have healthy eating habits, indicating they were not educated about the nutritional aspects of acne treatment.Certain food item intake was significantly higher in acne patients to give an association between the two. Further studies must be conducted to develop a causative relationship. Nutrition aawareness is critical to reduce acne.

Keywords: correlation between dietary components and acne, dietary components, acne, nutrition

Procedia PDF Downloads 55
327 Structuring Highly Iterative Product Development Projects by Using Agile-Indicators

Authors: Guenther Schuh, Michael Riesener, Frederic Diels

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Nowadays, manufacturing companies are faced with the challenge of meeting heterogeneous customer requirements in short product life cycles with a variety of product functions. So far, some of the functional requirements remain unknown until late stages of the product development. A way to handle these uncertainties is the highly iterative product development (HIP) approach. By structuring the development project as a highly iterative process, this method provides customer oriented and marketable products. There are first approaches for combined, hybrid models comprising deterministic-normative methods like the Stage-Gate process and empirical-adaptive development methods like SCRUM on a project management level. However, almost unconsidered is the question, which development scopes can preferably be realized with either empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative approaches. In this context, a development scope constitutes a self-contained section of the overall development objective. Therefore, this paper focuses on a methodology that deals with the uncertainty of requirements within the early development stages and the corresponding selection of the most appropriate development approach. For this purpose, internal influencing factors like a company’s technology ability, the prototype manufacturability and the potential solution space as well as external factors like the market accuracy, relevance and volatility will be analyzed and combined into an Agile-Indicator. The Agile-Indicator is derived in three steps. First of all, it is necessary to rate each internal and external factor in terms of the importance for the overall development task. Secondly, each requirement has to be evaluated for every single internal and external factor appropriate to their suitability for empirical-adaptive development. Finally, the total sums of internal and external side are composed in the Agile-Indicator. Thus, the Agile-Indicator constitutes a company-specific and application-related criterion, on which the allocation of empirical-adaptive and deterministic-normative development scopes can be made. In a last step, this indicator will be used for a specific clustering of development scopes by application of the fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering algorithm. The FCM-method determines sub-clusters within functional clusters based on the empirical-adaptive environmental impact of the Agile-Indicator. By means of the methodology presented in this paper, it is possible to classify requirements, which are uncertainly carried out by the market, into empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative development scopes.

Keywords: agile, highly iterative development, agile-indicator, product development

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
326 An Integrated Theoretical Framework on Mobile-Assisted Language Learning: User’s Acceptance Behavior

Authors: Gyoomi Kim, Jiyoung Bae

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In the field of language education research, there are not many tries to empirically examine learners’ acceptance behavior and related factors of mobile-assisted language learning (MALL). This study is one of the few attempts to propose an integrated theoretical framework that explains MALL users’ acceptance behavior and potential factors. Constructs from technology acceptance model (TAM) and MALL research are tested in the integrated framework. Based on previous studies, a hypothetical model was developed. Four external variables related to the MALL user’s acceptance behavior were selected: subjective norm, content reliability, interactivity, self-regulation. The model was also composed of four other constructs: two latent variables, perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness, were considered as cognitive constructs; attitude toward MALL as an affective construct; behavioral intention to use MALL as a behavioral construct. The participants were 438 undergraduate students who enrolled in an intensive English program at one university in Korea. This particular program was held in January 2018 using the vacation period. The students were given eight hours of English classes each day from Monday to Friday for four weeks and asked to complete MALL courses for practice outside the classroom. Therefore, all participants experienced blended MALL environment. The instrument was a self-response questionnaire, and each construct was measured by five questions. Once the questionnaire was developed, it was distributed to the participants at the final ceremony of the intensive program in order to collect the data from a large number of the participants at a time. The data showed significant evidence to support the hypothetical model. The results confirmed through structural equation modeling analysis are as follows: First, four external variables such as subjective norm, content reliability, interactivity, and self-regulation significantly affected perceived ease of use. Second, subjective norm, content reliability, self-regulation, perceived ease of use significantly affected perceived usefulness. Third, perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use significantly affected attitude toward MALL. Fourth, attitude toward MALL and perceived usefulness significantly affected behavioral intention to use MALL. These results implied that the integrated framework from TAM and MALL could be useful when adopting MALL environment to university students or adult English learners. Key constructs except interactivity showed significant relationships with one another and had direct and indirect impacts on MALL user’s acceptance behavior. Therefore, the constructs and validated metrics is valuable for language researchers and educators who are interested in MALL.

Keywords: blended MALL, learner factors/variables, mobile-assisted language learning, MALL, technology acceptance model, TAM, theoretical framework

Procedia PDF Downloads 233
325 Adjusting Electricity Demand Data to Account for the Impact of Loadshedding in Forecasting Models

Authors: Migael van Zyl, Stefanie Visser, Awelani Phaswana

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The electricity landscape in South Africa is characterized by frequent occurrences of loadshedding, a measure implemented by Eskom to manage electricity generation shortages by curtailing demand. Loadshedding, classified into stages ranging from 1 to 8 based on severity, involves the systematic rotation of power cuts across municipalities according to predefined schedules. However, this practice introduces distortions in recorded electricity demand, posing challenges to accurate forecasting essential for budgeting, network planning, and generation scheduling. Addressing this challenge requires the development of a methodology to quantify the impact of loadshedding and integrate it back into metered electricity demand data. Fortunately, comprehensive records of loadshedding impacts are maintained in a database, enabling the alignment of Loadshedding effects with hourly demand data. This adjustment ensures that forecasts accurately reflect true demand patterns, independent of loadshedding's influence, thereby enhancing the reliability of electricity supply management in South Africa. This paper presents a methodology for determining the hourly impact of load scheduling and subsequently adjusting historical demand data to account for it. Furthermore, two forecasting models are developed: one utilizing the original dataset and the other using the adjusted data. A comparative analysis is conducted to evaluate forecast accuracy improvements resulting from the adjustment process. By implementing this methodology, stakeholders can make more informed decisions regarding electricity infrastructure investments, resource allocation, and operational planning, contributing to the overall stability and efficiency of South Africa's electricity supply system.

Keywords: electricity demand forecasting, load shedding, demand side management, data science

Procedia PDF Downloads 56
324 Effect of Cutting Tools and Working Conditions on the Machinability of Ti-6Al-4V Using Vegetable Oil-Based Cutting Fluids

Authors: S. Gariani, I. Shyha

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Cutting titanium alloys are usually accompanied with low productivity, poor surface quality, short tool life and high machining costs. This is due to the excessive generation of heat at the cutting zone and difficulties in heat dissipation due to relatively low heat conductivity of this metal. The cooling applications in machining processes are crucial as many operations cannot be performed efficiently without cooling. Improving machinability, increasing productivity, enhancing surface integrity and part accuracy are the main advantages of cutting fluids. Conventional fluids such as mineral oil-based, synthetic and semi-synthetic are the most common cutting fluids in the machining industry. Although, these cutting fluids are beneficial in the industries, they pose a great threat to human health and ecosystem. Vegetable oils (VOs) are being investigated as a potential source of environmentally favourable lubricants, due to a combination of biodegradability, good lubricous properties, low toxicity, high flash points, low volatility, high viscosity indices and thermal stability. Fatty acids of vegetable oils are known to provide thick, strong, and durable lubricant films. These strong lubricating films give the vegetable oil base stock a greater capability to absorb pressure and high load carrying capacity. This paper details preliminary experimental results when turning Ti-6Al-4V. The impact of various VO-based cutting fluids, cutting tool materials, working conditions was investigated. The full factorial experimental design was employed involving 24 tests to evaluate the influence of process variables on average surface roughness (Ra), tool wear and chip formation. In general, Ra varied between 0.5 and 1.56 µm and Vasco1000 cutting fluid presented comparable performance with other fluids in terms of surface roughness while uncoated coarse grain WC carbide tool achieved lower flank wear at all cutting speeds. On the other hand, all tools tips were subjected to uniform flank wear during whole cutting trails. Additionally, formed chip thickness ranged between 0.1 and 0.14 mm with a noticeable decrease in chip size when higher cutting speed was used.

Keywords: cutting fluids, turning, Ti-6Al-4V, vegetable oils, working conditions

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323 Thinking Historiographically in the 21st Century: The Case of Spanish Musicology, a History of Music without History

Authors: Carmen Noheda

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This text provides a reflection on the way of thinking about the study of the history of music by examining the production of historiography in Spain at the turn of the century. Based on concepts developed by the historical theorist Jörn Rüsen, the article focuses on the following aspects: the theoretical artifacts that structure the interpretation of the limits of writing the history of music, the narrative patterns used to give meaning to the discourse of history, and the orientation context that functions as a source of criteria of significance for both interpretation and representation. This analysis intends to show that historical music theory is not only a means to abstractly explore the complex questions connected to the production of historical knowledge, but also a tool for obtaining concrete images about the intellectual practice of professional musicologists. Writing about the historiography of contemporary Spanish music is a task that requires both a knowledge of the history that is being written and investigated, as well as a familiarity with current theoretical trends and methodologies that allow for the recognition and definition of the different tendencies that have arisen in recent decades. With the objective of carrying out these premises, this project takes as its point of departure the 'immediate historiography' in relation to Spanish music at the beginning of the 21st century. The hesitation that Spanish musicology has shown in opening itself to new anthropological and sociological approaches, along with its rigidity in the face of the multiple shifts in dynamic forms of thinking about history, have produced a standstill whose consequences can be seen in the delayed reception of the historiographical revolutions that have emerged in the last century. Methodologically, this essay is underpinned by Rüsen’s notion of the disciplinary matrix, which is an important contribution to the understanding of historiography. Combined with his parallel conception of differing paradigms of historiography, it is useful for analyzing the present-day forms of thinking about the history of music. Following these theories, the article will in the first place address the characteristics and identification of present historiographical currents in Spanish musicology to thereby carry out an analysis based on the theories of Rüsen. Finally, it will establish some considerations for the future of musical historiography, whose atrophy has not only fostered the maintenance of an ingrained positivist tradition, but has also implied, in the case of Spain, an absence of methodological schools and an insufficient participation in international theoretical debates. An update of fundamental concepts has become necessary in order to understand that thinking historically about music demands that we remember that subjects are always linked by reciprocal interdependencies that structure and define what it is possible to create. In this sense, the fundamental aim of this research departs from the recognition that the history of music is embedded in the conditions that make it conceivable, communicable and comprehensible within a society.

Keywords: historiography, Jörn Rüssen, Spanish musicology, theory of history of music

Procedia PDF Downloads 187
322 The Acquisition of /r/ By Setswana-Learning Children

Authors: Keneilwe Matlhaku

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Crosslinguistic studies (theoretical and clinical) have shown delays and significant misarticulation in the acquisition of the rhotics. This article provides a detailed analysis of the early development of the rhotic phoneme, an apical trill /r/, by monolingual Setswana (Tswana S30) children of age ranges between 1 and 4 years. The data display the following trends: (1) late acquisition of /r/; (2) a wide range of substitution patterns involving this phoneme (i.e., gliding, coronal stopping, affrication, deletion, lateralization, as well as, substitution to a dental and uvular fricative). The primary focus of the article is on the potential origins of these variations of /r/, even within the same language. Our data comprises naturalistic longitudinal audio recordings of 6 children (2 males and 4 females) whose speech was recorded in their homes over a period of 4 months with no or only minimal disruptions in their daily environments. Phon software (Rose et al. 2013; Rose & MacWhinney 2014) was used to carry out the orthographic and phonetic transcriptions of the children’s data. Phon also enabled the generation of the children’s phonological inventories for comparison with adult target IPA forms. We explain the children’s patterns through current models of phonological emergence (MacWhinney 2015) as well as McAllister Byun, Inkelas & Rose (2016); Rose et al., (2022), which highlight the perceptual and articulatory factors influencing the development of sounds and sound classes. We highlight how the substitution patterns observed in the data can be captured through a consideration of the auditory properties of the target speech sounds, combined with an understanding of the types of articulatory gestures involved in the production of these sounds. These considerations, in turn, highlight some of the most central aspects of the challenges faced by the child toward learning these auditory-articulatory mappings. We provide a cross-linguistic survey of the acquisition of rhotic consonants in a sample of related and unrelated languages in which we show that the variability and volatility in the substitution patterns of /r/ is also brought about by the properties of the children’s ambient languages. Beyond theoretical issues, this article sets an initial foundation for developing speech-language pathology materials and services for Setswana learning children, an emerging area of public service in Botswana.

Keywords: rhotic, apical trill, Phon, phonological emergence, auditory, articulatory, mapping

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321 A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study on the Prevalence and Factors Associated with Virological Non-Suppression among HIV-Positive Adult Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Woliso Town, Oromia, Ethiopia

Authors: Teka Haile, Behailu Hawulte, Solomon Alemayehu

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Background: HIV virological failure still remains a problem in HV/AIDS treatment and care. This study aimed to describe the prevalence and identify the factors associated with viral non-suppression among HIV-positive adult patients on antiretroviral therapy in Woliso Town, Oromia, Ethiopia. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 424 HIV-positive patient’s attending antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Woliso Town during the period from August 25, 2020 to August 30, 2020. Data collected from patient medical records were entered into Epi Info version 2.3.2.1 and exported to SPSS version 21.0 for analysis. Logistic regression analysis was done to identify factors associated with viral load non-suppression, and statistical significance of odds ratios were declared using 95% confidence interval and p-value < 0.05. Results: A total of 424 patients were included in this study. The mean age (± SD) of the study participants was 39.88 (± 9.995) years. The prevalence of HIV viral load non-suppression was 55 (13.0%) with 95% CI (9.9-16.5). Second-line ART treatment regimen (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 8.98, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.64, 30.58) and routine viral load testing (AOR = 0.01, 95% CI: 0.001, 0.02) were significantly associated with virological non-suppression. Conclusion: Virological non-suppression was high, which hinders the achievement of the third global 95 target. The second-line regimen and routine viral load testing were significantly associated with virological non-suppression. It suggests the need to assess the effectiveness of antiretroviral drugs for epidemic control. It also clearly shows the need to decentralize third-line ART treatment for those patients in need.

Keywords: virological non-suppression, HIV-positive, ART, Woliso town, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 142