Search results for: Probability of Failure

Authors: Kong Ngai Pei

Abstract:

The argument scheme approach to argumentation has two components. One is to identify the recurrent patterns of inferences used in everyday discourse. The second is to devise critical questions to evaluate the inferences in these patterns. Although this approach is intuitive and contains many insightful ideas, it has been noted to be not free of problems. One is that due to its disavowing the probability calculus, it cannot give the exact strength of an inference. In order to tackle this problem, thereby paving the way to a more complete normative account of argument strength, it has been proposed, the most promising way is to combine the scheme-based approach with Bayesian networks (BNs). This paper pursues this line of thought, attempting to combine three common schemes, Appeal to Ignorance, Composition, and Division, with BNs. In the first part, it is argued that most (if not all) formulations of the critical questions corresponding to these schemes in the current argumentation literature are incomplete and not very informative. To remedy these flaws, more thorough and precise formulations of these questions are provided. In the second part, how to use graphical idioms (e.g. measurement and synthesis idioms) to translate the schemes as well as their corresponding critical questions to graphical structure of BNs, and how to define probability tables of the nodes using functions of various sorts are shown. In the final part, it is argued that many misuses of these schemes, traditionally called fallacies with the same names as the schemes, can indeed be adequately accounted for by the BN models proposed in this paper.

Keywords: appeal to ignorance, argument schemes, Bayesian networks, composition, division

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Ledi Neçaj

Abstract:

Objectives: The target of this paper is (1) to explain objectively physical activity model throughout three chronic cardiopulmonary conditions, and (2) to study the connection among physical activity dimensions with disease severity, self-reported physical and emotional functioning, and exercise performance. Material and Methods: This is a cross-sectional study of patients in their domestic environment. Patients with cardiopulmonary diseases were: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), (n-63), coronary heart failure (n=60), and patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillator (n=60). Main results measures: Seven ambulatory physical activity dimensions (total steps, percentage time active, percentage time ambulating at low, medium, and hard intensity, maximum cadence for 30 non-stop minutes, and peak performance) have been measured with an accelerometer. Results: Subjects with COPD had the lowest amount of ambulatory physical activity compared with topics with coronary heart failure and cardiac dysrhythmias (all 7 interest dimensions, P<.05); total step counts have been: 5319 as opposed to 7464 as opposed to 9570, respectively. Six-minute walk distance becomes correlated (r=.44-.65, P<.01) with all physical activity dimensions inside the COPD pattern, the most powerful correlations being with total steps and peak performance. In topics with cardiac impairment, maximal oxygen intake had the most effective small to slight correlations with five of the physical activity dimensions (r=.22-.40, P<.05). In contrast, correlations among 6-minute walk test distance and physical activity have been higher (r=.48-.61, P<.01) albeit in a smaller pattern of most effective patients with coronary heart failure. For all three samples, self-reported physical and mental health functioning, age, frame mass index, airflow obstruction, and ejection fraction had both exceptionally small and no significant correlations with physical activity. Conclusions: Findings from this study present a profitable benchmark of physical activity patterns in individuals with cardiopulmonary diseases for comparison with future studies. All seven dimensions of ambulatory physical activity have disfavor between subjects with COPD, heart failure, and cardiac dysrhythmias. Depending on the research or clinical goal, the use of one dimension, such as total steps, may be sufficient. Although physical activity had high correlations with performance on a six-minute walk test relative to other variables, accelerometers-based physical activity monitoring provides unique, important information about real-world behavior in patients with cardiopulmonary not already captured with existing measures.

Keywords: ambulatory physical activity, walking, monitoring, COPD, heart failure, implantable defibrillator, exercise performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Fadwa Jewilli

Abstract:

A sudden leak of a 6-inch gas line pipe after being in service for one year was observed. The pipe had been designed to transport dry gas. The failure had taken place in 6 o’clock position at the stage discharge of the flow process. Laboratory investigations were conducted to find out the cause of the pipe rupture. Visual and metallographic observations confirmed that the pipe split was due to a crack initiated in circumferential and then turned into longitudinal direction. Sever wall thickness reduction was noticed on the internal pipe surface. Scanning electron microscopy observations at the fracture surface revealed features of ductile fracture mode. Corrosion product analysis showed the traces of iron carbonate and iron sulphate. The laboratory analysis resulted in the conclusion that the pipe failed due to the effect of wet fluid (condensate) caused severe wall thickness dissolution resulted in pipe could not stand the continuation at in-service working condition.

Keywords: gas line pipe, corrosion prediction ductile fracture, ductile fracture, failure analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Hamid Kazemi, Abbasali Sadeghi

Abstract:

Assessment of seismic behavior of frame structures is just done for evaluating life and financial damages or lost. The new structural seismic behavior assessment methods have been proposed, so it is necessary to define a formulation as a damage index, which the damage amount has been quantified and qualified. In this paper, four new steel moment-resisting frames with intermediate ductility and different height (2, 5, 8, and 12-story) with regular geometry and simple rectangular plan were supposed and designed. The three existing groups’ damage indices were studied, each group consisting of local index (Drift, Maximum Roof Displacement, Banon Failure, Kinematic, Banon Normalized Cumulative Rotation, Cumulative Plastic Rotation and Ductility), global index (Roufaiel and Meyer, Papadopoulos, Sozen, Rosenblueth, Ductility and Base Shear), and story (Banon Failure and Inter-story Rotation). The necessary parameters for these damage indices have been calculated under the effect of far-fault ground motion records by Non-linear Dynamic Time History Analysis. Finally, prioritization of damage indices is defined based on more conservative values in terms of more damageability rate. The results show that the selected damage index has an important effect on estimation of the damage state. Also, failure, drift, and Rosenblueth damage indices are more conservative indices respectively for local, story and global damage indices.

Keywords: damage index, far-fault ground motion records, non-linear time history analysis, SeismoStruct software, steel moment-resisting frame

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Bernd Engel, Sara Salman Hassan Al-Maeeni

Abstract:

A substantial amount of natural resources are nowadays consumed at a growing rate, as humans all over the world used materials obtained from the Earth. Machinery manufacturing industry is one of the major resource consumers on a global scale. Even though the incessant finding out of the new material, metals, and resources, it is urgent for the industry to develop methods to use the Earth's resources intelligently and more sustainable than before. Re-engineering of machine tools regarding design and failure analysis is an approach whereby out-of-date machines are upgraded and returned to useful life. To ensure the reliable future performance of the used machine components, it is essential to investigate the machine component failure through the material, design, and surface examinations. This paper presents an experimental approach aimed at inspecting the shaft of the rotary draw bending machine as a case to study. The testing methodology, which is based on the principle of the three-point bending test, allows assessing the shaft elastic behavior under loading. Furthermore, the shaft elastic characteristics include the maximum linear deflection, and maximum bending stress was determined by using an analytical approach and finite element (FE) analysis approach. In the end, the results were compared with the ones obtained by the experimental approach. In conclusion, it is seen that the measured bending deflection and bending stress were well close to the permissible design value. Therefore, the shaft can work in the second life cycle. However, based on previous surface tests conducted, the shaft needs surface treatments include re-carburizing and refining processes to ensure the reliable surface performance.

Keywords: deflection, FE analysis, shaft, stress, three-point bending

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Serges Mendomo Meye, Li Guowei, Shen Zhenzhong

Abstract:

Earthquake is one of the main loads threatening dam safety. Once the dam is damaged, it will bring huge losses of life and property to the country and people. Therefore, it is very important to research the seismic safety of the dam. Due to the complex foundation conditions, high fortification intensity, and high scientific and technological content, it is necessary to adopt reasonable methods to evaluate the seismic safety performance of concrete arch dams built and under construction in strong earthquake areas. Structural seismic vulnerability analysis can predict the probability of structural failure at all levels under different intensity earthquakes, which can provide a scientific basis for reasonable seismic safety evaluation and decision-making. In this paper, the response surface method (RSM) is applied to the seismic vulnerability analysis of arch dams, which improves the efficiency of vulnerability analysis. Based on the central composite test design method, the material-seismic intensity samples are established. The response surface model (RSM) with arch crown displacement as performance index is obtained by finite element (FE) calculation of the samples, and then the accuracy of the response surface model (RSM) is verified. To obtain the seismic vulnerability curves, the seismic intensity measure ??(?1) is chosen to be 0.1~1.2g, with an interval of 0.1g and a total of 12 intensity levels. For each seismic intensity level, the arch crown displacement corresponding to 100 sets of different material samples can be calculated by algebraic operation of the response surface model (RSM), which avoids 1200 times of nonlinear dynamic calculation of arch dam; thus, the efficiency of vulnerability analysis is improved greatly.

Keywords: high concrete arch dam, performance index, response surface method, seismic vulnerability analysis, vector-valued intensity measure

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Mohammed Wadi, Bedri Kekezoglu, Mustafa Baysal, Mehmet Rida Tur, Abdulfetah Shobole

Abstract:

This paper investigates the technical evaluation of the wind potential for present and future investments in Turkey taking into account the feasibility of sites, installments, operation, and maintenance. This evaluation based on the hourly measured wind speed data for the three years 2008–2010 at 30 m height for Çatalca district. These data were obtained from national meteorology station in Istanbul–Republic of Turkey are analyzed in order to evaluate the feasibility of wind power potential and to assure supreme assortment of wind turbines installing for the area of interest. Furthermore, the data are extrapolated and analyzed at 60 m and 80 m regarding the variability of roughness factor. Weibull bi-parameter probability function is used to approximate monthly and annually wind potential and power density based on three calculation methods namely, the approximated, the graphical and the energy pattern factor methods. The annual mean wind power densities were to be 400.31, 540.08 and 611.02 W/m² for 30, 60, and 80 m heights respectively. Simulation results prove that the analyzed area is an appropriate place for constructing large-scale wind farms.

Keywords: wind potential in Turkey, Weibull bi-parameter probability function, the approximated method, the graphical method, the energy pattern factor method, capacity factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Hilalah Alturkistani, Alaa AlFaadhel, Nora AlJahani, Fatiha Djebbar

Abstract:

Cloud computing is one of the most widely used technology which provides opportunities and services to government entities, large companies, and standard users. However, cybersecurity risk management studies of cloud computing and resiliency approaches are lacking. This paper proposes resilient cloud cybersecurity risk assessment and management tailored specifically, to Dropbox with two approaches:1) technical-based solution motivated by a cybersecurity risk assessment of cloud services, and 2)a target personnel-based solution guided by cybersecurity-related survey among employees to identify their knowledge that qualifies them withstand to any cyberattack. The proposed work attempts to identify cloud vulnerabilities, assess threats and detect high risk components, to finally propose appropriate safeguards such as failure predicting and removing, redundancy or load balancing techniques for quick recovery and return to pre-attack state if failure happens.

Keywords: cybersecurity risk management plan, resilient cloud computing, cyberattacks, cybersecurity risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Mostafa Firoozabadi, Alireza Foroughi Nematollahi

Abstract:

Semi autogenous mills are designed for grinding or primary crushed ore, and are the most widely used in concentrators globally. Any defect occurrence in semi autogenous mills can stop the production line. A Gearbox is a significant part of a rotating machine or a mill, so, the gearbox monitoring is a necessary process to prevent the unwanted defects. When a defect happens in a gearbox bearing, this defect can be transferred to the other parts of the equipment like inner ring, outer ring, balls, and the bearing cage. Vibration analysis is one of the most effective and common ways to detect the bearing defects in the mills. Vibration signal in a mill can be made by different parts of the mill including electromotor, pinion girth gear, different rolling bearings, and tire. When a vibration signal, made by the aforementioned parts, is added to the gearbox vibration spectrum, an accurate and on time defect detection in the gearbox will be difficult. In this paper, a new method is proposed to detect the gearbox bearing defects in the semi autogenous mill on time and accurately, using the vibration signal analysis method. In this method, if the vibration values are increased in the vibration curve, the probability of defect occurrence is investigated by comparing the equipment vibration values and the standard ones. Then, all vibration frequencies are extracted from the vibration signal and the equipment defect is detected using the vibration spectrum curve. This method is implemented on the semi autogenous mills in the Golgohar mining and industrial company in Iran. The results show that the proposed method can detect the bearing looseness on time and accurately. After defect detection, the bearing is opened before the equipment failure and the predictive maintenance actions are implemented on it.

Keywords: condition monitoring, gearbox defects, predictive maintenance, vibration analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 458

Authors: Mariya Dayana, Budhmal Jain

Abstract:

Kannur International Airport Ltd. (KIAL) is a new Greenfield airport project with airside development on an undulating terrain with an average height of 90m above Mean Sea Level (MSL) and a maximum height of 142m. To accommodate the desired Runway length and Runway End Safety Area (RESA) at both the ends along the proposed alignment, it resulted in 45.5 million cubic meters in cutting and filling. The insufficient availability of land for the construction of free slope embankment at RESA 07 end resulted in the design and construction of Reinforced Soil Slope (RSS) with a maximum slope of 65 degrees. An embankment fill of average 70m height with steep slopes located in high rainfall area is a unique feature of this project. The design and construction was challenging being asymmetrical with curves and bends. The fill was reinforced with high strength Uniaxial geogrids laid perpendicular to the slope. Weld mesh wrapped with coir mat acted as the facia units to protect it against surface failure. Face anchorage were also provided by wrapping the geogrids along the facia units where the slope angle was steeper than 45 degrees. Considering high rainfall received on this table top airport site, extensive drainage system was designed for the high embankment fill. Gabion wall up to 10m height were also designed and constructed along the boundary to accommodate the toe of the RSS fill beside the jeepable track at the base level. The design of RSS fill was done using ReSSA software and verified in PLAXIS 2D modeling. Both slip surface failure and wedge failure cases were considered in static and seismic analysis for local and global failure cases. The site won excavated laterite soil was used as the fill material for the construction. Extensive field and laboratory tests were conducted during the construction of RSS system for quality assurance. This paper represents a case study detailing the design and construction of a very high embankment using geosynthetics for the provision of Runway length and RESA area.

Keywords: airport, embankment, gabion, high strength uniaxial geogrid, kial, laterite soil, plaxis 2d

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Umberto Cerasani, Luca Cerasani

Abstract:

Methods for earthquakes forecasting have been intensively investigated in the last decades, but there is still no universal solution agreed by seismologists. Rock failure is most often preceded by a tiny elastic movement in the failure area and by the appearance of micro-cracks. These micro-cracks could be detected at the soil surface and represent useful earth-quakes precursors. The aim of this study was to verify whether tiny raw acceleration signals (in the 10⁻¹ to 10⁻⁴ cm/s² range) prior to the arrival of main primary-waves could be exploitable and related to earthquakes magnitude. Mathematical tools such as Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), moving average and wavelets have been applied on raw acceleration data available on the ITACA web site, and the study focused on one of the most unpredictable earth-quakes, i.e., the August 24th, 2016 at 01H36 one that occurred in the central Italy area. It appeared that these tiny acceleration signals preceding main P-waves have different patterns both on frequency and time domains for high magnitude earthquakes compared to lower ones.

Keywords: earthquake, accelerometer, earthquake forecasting, seism

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Daniel Thompson, Sophie Cerutti, Muhammad Peerbux, Hansraj Bookun

Abstract:

Introduction: Diabetic nephropathy is the leading cause end stage renal failure in Australia, responsible for 36% of cases. Patients who require dialysis may be suitable for haemodialysis through an arteriovenous fistula (AVF), and preoperatively careful planning is required to select suitable vessels for a long-lasting fistula that provides suitable dialysis access. Due to high levels of vascular disease in diabetic patients, we sought to investigate whether there is a difference in the types of autologous AVFs created for diabetic patients in renal failure compared to their non-diabetic counterparts. Method: Data was collected from the Australasian Vascular Audit, for all vascular surgery completed at St. Vincent’s Hospital Melbourne between 2011-2020. Patients were selected by operative type, creation of AVF, and compared in two groups, diabetic patients and patients without diabetes. Chi-squared test was utilised to determine significance. Results: Data analysis is ongoing and will be complete with updated abstract in time for the conference. Discussion: Diabetic nephropathy is the cause for roughly a third of end stage renal failure in Australia. Diabetic patients present with a unique set of challenges when it comes to dialysis access due to increased risk of peripheral vascular disease and arterial calcification. Care must be taken in the creation of fistulas to minimise complications and increase the chance of long-lasting access. Our study investigates the difference in autologous AVFs between diabetics and non-diabetics, and results may be used to influence location of fistula creation. Further research may be used to investigate patency rates of fistulas in diabetics vs non-diabetics which would further influence treatment decisions.

Keywords: dialysis, diabetes, renal access, fistula

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Valentina Futoryanova, Hugh Hunt

Abstract:

One of the common failure modes of the diesel engine turbochargers is high cycle fatigue of the turbine wheel blades. Mistuning of the blades due to the casting process is believed to contribute to the failure mode. Laser vibrometer is used to characterize mistuning for a population of turbine wheels through the analysis of the blade response to piezo speaker induced noise. The turbine wheel design under investigation is radial and is typically used in 6-12 L diesel engine applications. Amplitudes and resonance frequencies are reviewed and summarized. The study also includes test results for a paddle wheel that represents a perfectly tuned system and acts as a reference. Mass spring model is developed for the paddle wheel and the model suitability is tested against the actual data. Randomization is applied to the stiffness matrix to model the mistuning effect in the turbine wheels. Experimental data is shown to have good agreement with the model.

Keywords: vibration, radial turbines, mistuning, turbine blades, modal analysis, periodic structures, finite element

Procedia PDF Downloads 429

Authors: Youn-Sung Kim, Hye-Mi Kim, Sang-Hoon Seo, Jaden Cha

Abstract:

This International standard IEC 61508 sets out a generic approach for all safety lifecycle activities for systems comprised of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic (E/E/PE) elements that are used to perform safety functions. The control unit in stage control system is safety related facilities to control state and speed for stage system running, and it performs safety-critical function by stage control system. The controller unit is part of safety loops corresponding to the IEC 61508 and classified as logic part in the safety loop. In this paper, we analyze using FMEDA (Failure Mode Effect and Diagnostic Analysis) to verification for fault tolerance methods and functional safety of control unit. Moreover, we determined SIL (Safety Integrity Level) for control unit according to the safety requirements defined in IEC 61508-2 based on an analyzed functional safety.

Keywords: safety function, failure mode effect, IEC 61508-2, diagnostic analysis, stage control system

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Ehsan Alishahi, Chuang Deng

Abstract:

Commercial applications of bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) were restricted due to the sudden brittle failure mode which was the main drawback in these new class of materials. Therefore, crystalline-amorphous (C-A) composites were introduced as a toughening strategy in BMGs. In spite of numerous researches in the area of metallic C-A composites, the fundamental structure-property relation in these composites that are not exactly known yet. In this study, it is aimed to investigate the fundamental properties of crystalline-amorphous interface in a model system of Cu/CuZr by using molecular dynamics simulations. Several parameters including interface energy and mechanical properties were investigated by means of atomic models and employing Embedded Atom Method (EAM) potential function. It is found that the crystalline-amorphous interfacial energy weakly depends on the orientation of the crystalline layer, which is in stark contrast to that in a regular crystalline grain boundary. Additionally, the results showed that the interface controls the yielding of the crystalline-amorphous composites during uniaxial tension either by serving as sources for dislocation nucleation in the crystalline layer or triggering local shear transformation zones in amorphous layer. The critical resolved shear stress required to nucleate the first dislocation is also found to strongly depend on the crystalline orientation. Furthermore, it is found that the interaction between dislocations and shear localization at the crystalline-amorphous interface oriented in different directions can lead to a change in the deformation mode. For instance, while the dislocation and shear banding are aligned to each other in {0 0 1} interface plane, the misorientation angle between these failure mechanisms causing more homogeneous deformation in {1 1 0} and {1 1 1} crystalline-amorphous interfaces. These results should help clarify the failure mechanism of crystalline-amorphous composites under various loading conditions.

Keywords: crystalline-amorphous, composites, orientation, plasticity

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Rajender Dahiya

Abstract:

Investigation outcomes of major process incidents have been consistent for decades and validate that the causes and consequences are often identical. The debate remains as we continue to experience similar process incidents even with enormous development of new tools, technologies, industry standards, codes, regulations, and learning processes? The objective of this paper is to investigate the most common causes of major industrial incidents and reveal industry challenges and best practices to prevent such incidents. The author, in his current role, performs audits and inspections of a variety of high-hazard industries in North America, including petroleum refineries, chemicals, petrochemicals, manufacturing, etc. In this paper, he shares real life scenarios, examples, and case studies from high hazards operating facilities including key challenges and best practices. This case study will provide a clear understanding of the importance of near miss incident investigation. The incident was a Safe operating limit excursion. The case describes the deficiencies in management programs, the competency of employees, and the culture of the corporation that includes hazard identification and risk assessment, maintaining the integrity of safety-critical equipment, operating discipline, learning from process safety near misses, process safety competency, process safety culture, audits, and performance measurement. Failure to identify the hazards and manage the risks of highly hazardous materials and processes is one of the primary root-causes of an incident, and failure to learn from past incidents is the leading cause of the recurrence of incidents. Several investigations of major incidents discovered that each showed several warning signs before occurring, and most importantly, all were preventable. The author will discuss why preventable incidents were not prevented and review the mutual causes of learning failures from past major incidents. The leading causes of past incidents are summarized below. Management failure to identify the hazard and/or mitigate the risk of hazardous processes or materials. This process starts early in the project stage and continues throughout the life cycle of the facility. For example, a poorly done hazard study such as HAZID, PHA, or LOPA is one of the leading causes of the failure. If this step is performed correctly, then the next potential cause is. Management failure to maintain the integrity of safety critical systems and equipment. In most of the incidents, mechanical integrity of the critical equipment was not maintained, safety barriers were either bypassed, disabled, or not maintained. The third major cause is Management failure to learn and/or apply learning from the past incidents. There were several precursors before those incidents. These precursors were either ignored altogether or not taken seriously. This paper will conclude by sharing how a well-implemented operating management system, good process safety culture, and competent leaders and staff contributed to managing the risks to prevent major incidents.

Keywords: incident investigation, risk management, loss prevention, process safety, accident prevention

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: D. W. Mohammed, J. Bowen, S. N. Kukureka

Abstract:

Successful design and fabrication of flexible devices for electrode components requires a low sheet resistance, high optical transmittance, high mechanical reliability. Indium tin oxide (ITO) film is currently the predominant transparent conductive oxide (TCO) film in potential applications such as flexible organic light- emitting diodes, flat-panel displays, solar cells, and thin film transistors (TFTs). However ITO films are too brittle and their resistivity is rather high in some cases compared with ITO/Ag/ ITO, and they cannot completely meet flexible optoelectronic device requirements. Therefore, in this work the mechanical properties of ITO /Ag/ITO multilayer film that deposited on Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) compared with the single layered ITO sample were investigated using bending fatigue, twisting fatigue and thermal cycling experiments. The electrical resistance was monitored during the application of mechanical and thermal loads to see the pattern of relationship between the load and the electrical continuity as a consequent of failure. Scanning electron microscopy and atomic force microscopy were used to provide surface characterization of the mechanically-tested samples. The effective embedment of the Ag layer between upper and lower ITO films led to metallic conductivity and superior flexibility to the single ITO electrode, due to the high failure strain of the ductile Ag layer. These results indicate that flexible ITO/Ag/ITO multilayer electrodes are a promising candidate for use as transparent conductor in flexible displays. They provided significantly reduced sheet resistance compared to ITO, and improved bending and twisting properties both as a function of radius, angle and thermal cycling.

Keywords: ITO/Ag/ITO multilayer, failure strain, mechanical properties, PET

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Ch. Sridevi, S. P. Shailender Kumar, B. Gurudayal, A. Chalapathi Rao, K. Koteswara Rao, P. Srinivasulu

Abstract:

System reliability and system availability evaluation plays a crucial role in ensuring the seamless operation of complex satellite data reception system with consistent performance for longer periods. This paper presents a novel approach for the same using a case study on one of the antenna systems at satellite data reception ground station in India. The methodology involves analyzing system's components, their failure rates, system's architecture, generation of logical reliability block diagram model and estimating the reliability of the system using the component level mean time between failures considering exponential distribution to derive a baseline estimate of the system's reliability. The model is then validated with collected system level field failure data from the operational satellite data reception systems that includes failure occurred, failure time, criticality of the failure and repair times by using statistical techniques like median rank, regression and Weibull analysis to extract meaningful insights regarding failure patterns and practical reliability of the system and to assess the accuracy of the developed reliability model. The study mainly focused on identification of critical units within the system, which are prone to failures and have a significant impact on overall performance and brought out a reliability model of the identified critical unit. This model takes into account the interdependencies among system components and their impact on overall system reliability and provides valuable insights into the performance of the system to understand the Improvement or degradation of the system over a period of time and will be the vital input to arrive at the optimized design for future development. It also provides a plug and play framework to understand the effect on performance of the system in case of any up gradations or new designs of the unit. It helps in effective planning and formulating contingency plans to address potential system failures, ensuring the continuity of operations. Furthermore, to instill confidence in system users, the duration for which the system can operate continuously with the desired level of 3 sigma reliability was estimated that turned out to be a vital input to maintenance plan. System availability and station availability was also assessed by considering scenarios of clash and non-clash to determine the overall system performance and potential bottlenecks. Overall, this paper establishes a comprehensive methodology for reliability and availability analysis of complex satellite data reception systems. The results derived from this approach facilitate effective planning contingency measures, and provide users with confidence in system performance and enables decision-makers to make informed choices about system maintenance, upgrades and replacements. It also aids in identifying critical units and assessing system availability in various scenarios and helps in minimizing downtime and optimizing resource allocation.

Keywords: exponential distribution, reliability modeling, reliability block diagram, satellite data reception system, system availability, weibull analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Bouthiba Amina

Abstract:

The estimation of the statistics bound to the precipitation represents a vast domain, which puts numerous challenges to meteorologists and hydrologists. Sometimes, it is necessary, to approach in value the extreme events for sites where there is little, or no datum, as well as their periods of return. The search for a model of the frequency of the heights of daily rains dresses a big importance in operational hydrology: It establishes a basis for predicting the frequency and intensity of floods by estimating the amount of precipitation in past years. The most known and the most common approach is the statistical approach, It consists in looking for a law of probability that fits best the values observed by the random variable " daily maximal rain " after a comparison of various laws of probability and methods of estimation by means of tests of adequacy. Therefore, a frequent analysis of the annual series of daily maximal rains was realized on the data of 54 pluviometric stations of the pond of high and average. This choice was concerned with five laws usually applied to the study and the analysis of frequent maximal daily rains. The chosen period is from 1970 to 2013. It was of use to the forecast of quantiles. The used laws are the law generalized by extremes to three components, those of the extreme values to two components (Gumbel and log-normal) in two parameters, the law Pearson typifies III and Log-Pearson III in three parameters. In Algeria, Gumbel's law has been used for a long time to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows. However, and we will check and choose the most reliable law.

Keywords: return period, extreme flow, statistics laws, Gumbel, estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Yoshiaki Shikata, Nobutane Hanayama

Abstract:

We present a prioritized, limited multi-server processor sharing (PS) system where each server has various capacities, and N (≥2) priority classes are allowed in each PS server. In each prioritized, limited server, different service ratio is assigned to each class request, and the number of requests to be processed is limited to less than a certain number. Routing strategies of such prioritized, limited multi-server PS systems that take into account the capacity of each server are also presented, and a performance evaluation procedure for these strategies is discussed. Practical performance measures of these strategies, such as loss probability, mean waiting time, and mean sojourn time, are evaluated via simulation. In the PS server, at the arrival (or departure) of a request, the extension (shortening) of the remaining sojourn time of each request receiving service can be calculated by using the number of requests of each class and the priority ratio. Utilising a simulation program which executes these events and calculations, the performance of the proposed prioritized, limited multi-server PS rule can be analyzed. From the evaluation results, most suitable routing strategy for the loss or waiting system is clarified.

Keywords: processor sharing, multi-server, various capacity, N-priority classes, routing strategy, loss probability, mean sojourn time, mean waiting time, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Y. J. Chen, T. M. Yue, Z. N. Guo

Abstract:

This paper reports the effects of laser energy on the characteristics of bubbles generated in the weld zone and the formation of new chemical bonds at the Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET)/Ti joint interface in laser joining of PET to Ti. The samples were produced by using different laser energies ranging from 1.5 J – 6 J in steps of 1.5 J, while all other joining parameters remained unchanged. The types of chemical bonding at the joint interface were analysed by the x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) depth-profiling method. The results show that the characteristics of the bubbles and the thickness of the chemically bonded interface, which contains the laser generated bonds of Ti–C and Ti–O, increase markedly with increasing laser energy input. The tensile failure load of the joint depends on the combined effect of the amount and distribution of the bubbles formed and the chemical bonding intensity of the joint interface.

Keywords: laser direct joining, Ti/PET interface, laser energy, XPS depth profiling, chemical bond, tensile failure load

Procedia PDF Downloads 206

Authors: Zain Ul Hassan, Muhammad Zain Ul Abadin, Muhammad Zubair Khan

Abstract:

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have now become of predominant importance for various operations, and an immense amount of work is going on in this specific category. The structural stability and life of these UAVs is key factor that should be considered while deploying them to different intelligent operations as their failure leads to loss of sensitive real-time data and cost. This paper presents an applied research on the development of a structural health monitoring system for a UAV designed and fabricated by deploying modular approach. Firstly, a modular UAV has been designed which allows to dismantle and to reassemble the components of the UAV without effecting the whole assembly of UAV. This novel approach makes the vehicle very sustainable and decreases its maintenance cost to a significant value by making possible to replace only the part leading to failure. Then the SHM for the designed architecture of the UAV had been specified as a combination of wings integrated with strain gauges, on-board data logger, bridge circuitry and the ground station. For the research purpose sensors have only been attached to the wings being the most load bearing part and as per analysis was done on ANSYS. On the basis of analysis of the load time spectrum obtained by the data logger during flight, fatigue life of the respective component has been predicted using fracture mechanics techniques of Rain Flow Method and Miner’s Rule. Thus allowing us to monitor the health of a specified component time to time aiding to avoid any failure.

Keywords: fracture mechanics, rain flow method, structural health monitoring system, unmanned aerial vehicle

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Felipa de Mello-Sampayo

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to undertake, from patient’s perspective, the timing and probability of using teledermatology, comparing it with a conventional referral system. The dynamic stochastic model’s main value-added consists of the concrete application to patients waiting for dermatology surgical intervention. Patients with low health level uncertainty must use teledermatology treatment as soon as possible, which is precisely when the teledermatology is least valuable. The results of the model were then tested empirically with the teledermatology network covering the area served by the Hospital Garcia da Horta, Portugal, links the primary care centers of 24 health districts with the hospital’s dermatology department via the corporate intranet of the Portuguese healthcare system. Health level volatility can be understood as the hazard of developing skin cancer and the trend of health level as the bias of developing skin lesions. The results of the survival analysis suggest that the theoretical model can explain the use of teledermatology. It depends negatively on the volatility of patients' health, and positively on the trend of health, i.e., the lower the risk of developing skin cancer and the younger the patients, the more presurgical teledermatology one expects to occur. Presurgical teledermatology also depends positively on out-of-pocket expenses and negatively on the opportunity costs of teledermatology, i.e., the lower the benefit missed by using teledermatology, the more presurgical teledermatology one expects to occur.

Keywords: teledermatology, wait time, uncertainty, opportunity cost, survival analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Divyanshoo Singh, Hemant Kumar Singh, Kumar Nilankar

Abstract:

Major engineering constructions and foundations (e.g., dams, tunnels, bridges, underground caverns, etc.) in and around the Himalayan region of Uttarakhand are not only confined within hard and crystalline rocks but also stretched within weak and anisotropic rocks. While constructing within such anisotropic rocks, engineers more often encounter geotechnical complications such as structural instability, slope failure, and excessive deformation. These severities/complexities arise mainly due to inherent anisotropy such as layering/foliations, preferred mineral orientations, and geo-mechanical anisotropy present within rocks and vary when measured in different directions. Of all the inherent anisotropy present within the rocks, major geotechnical complexities mainly arise due to the inappropriate orientation of weak planes (bedding/foliation). Thus, Orientations of such weak planes highly affect the fracture patterns, failure mechanism, and strength of rocks. This has led to an improved understanding of the physico-mechanical behavior of anisotropic rocks with different orientations of weak planes. Therefore, in this study, block samples of phyllite belonging to the Chandpur Group of Lesser Himalaya were collected from the Srinagar area of Uttarakhand, India, to investigate the effect of foliation angles on physico-mechanical properties of the rock. Further, collected block samples were core drilled of diameter 50 mm at different foliation angles, β (angle between foliation plane and drilling direction), i.e., 0⁰, 30⁰, 60⁰, and 90⁰, respectively. Before the test, drilled core samples were oven-dried at 110⁰C to achieve uniformity. Physical and mechanical properties such as Seismic wave velocity, density, uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), point load strength (PLS), and Brazilian tensile strength (BTS) test were carried out on prepared core specimens. The results indicate that seismic wave velocities (P-wave and S-wave) decrease with increasing β angle. As the β angle increases, the number of foliation planes that the wave needs to pass through increases and thus causes the dissipation of wave energy with increasing β. Maximum strength for UCS, PLS, and BTS was found to be at β angle of 90⁰. However, minimum strength for UCS and BTS was found to be at β angle of 30⁰, which differs from PLS, where minimum strength was found at 0⁰ β angle. Furthermore, failure modes also correspond to the strength of the rock, showing along foliation and non-central failure as characteristics of low strength values, while multiple fractures and central failure as characteristics of high strength values. Thus, this study will provide a better understanding of the anisotropic features of phyllite for the purpose of major engineering construction and foundations within the Himalayan Region.

Keywords: anisotropic rocks, foliation angle, Physico-mechanical properties, phyllite, Himalayan region

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Elsayed A. M. Shokr, A. Alhazemi, T. Naser, Talal A. Zuhair, Adel A. Zuhair, Ahmed N. Alshamary, Thamer A. Alanazi, Hosam A. Alanazi

Abstract:

The main threats to human health from heavy metals are associated with exposure to Pb, Cd, Cu, Mo, Zn, Ni, Mn Co and Cr. is mainly via intake of drinking water being the most important source in most populations. These metals have been extensively studied and their effects on human health regularly reviewed by international bodies such as the WHO. Heavy metals have been used by humans for thousands of years. Although several adverse health effects of heavy metals have been known for a long time, exposure to heavy metals continues, and is even increasing in some parts of the world, in particular in less developed countries, though emissions have declined in most developed countries over the last 100 years. A strong relationship between contaminated drinking water with heavy metals from some of the stations of water shopping in Hail, KSA and chronic diseases such as renal failure, liver cirrhosis, and chronic anemia has been identified in this study. These diseases are apparently related to contaminant drinking water with heavy metals such as Pb, Cd, Cu, Mo, Zn, Ni, Mn Co and Cr. Renal failure is related to contaminate drinking water with lead and cadmium, liver cirrhosis to copper and molybdenum, and chronic anemia to copper and cadmium. Recent data indicate that adverse health effects of cadmium exposure may occur at lower exposure levels than previously anticipated, primarily in the form of kidney damage but possibly also bone effects and fractures. The general population is primarily exposed to mercury via drinking water being a major source of methyl mercury exposure, and dental amalgam. During the last century lead, cadmium, zinc, iron and arsenic is mainly via intake of drinking water being the most important source in most populations. Long-term exposure to lead, cadmium, zinc, iron and arsenic in drinking-water is mainly related to primarily in the form of kidney damage. Studies of these diseases suggest that abnormal incidence in specific areas is related to toxic materials in the groundwater and thereby led to the contamination of drinking water in these areas.

Keywords: heavy metals, liver functions, kidney functions and chronic renal failure, hail, renal, water

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Guanyu Jiang, Donghai Xu, Huanteng Liu

Abstract:

After the Fukushima-Daiichi accident, the development of accident tolerant fuel cladding materials to improve reactor safety has become a hot topic in the field of nuclear industry. ZrO₂ has a satisfactory neutron economy and can guarantee the fission chain reaction process, which enables it to be a promising coating for zirconium alloy cladding. Maintaining a good corrosion resistance in primary coolant loop during normal operations of Pressurized Water Reactors is a prerequisite for ZrO₂ as a protective coating on zirconium alloy cladding. Research on the corrosion performance of ZrO₂ coating in nuclear water chemistry is relatively scarce, and existing reports failed to provide an in-depth explanation for the failure causes of ZrO₂ coating. Herein, a detailed corrosion process of ZrO₂ coating in lithiated water at 360 °C and 18.5 MPa was proposed based on experimental research and molecular dynamics simulation. Lithiated water with different LiOH solutions in the present work was deaerated and had a dissolved oxygen concentration of < 10 ppb. The concentration of Li (as LiOH) was determined to be 2.3 ppm, 70 ppm, and 500 ppm, respectively. Corrosion tests were conducted in a static autoclave. Modeling and corresponding calculations were operated on Materials Studio software. The calculation of adsorption energy and dynamics parameters were undertaken by the Energy task and Dynamics task of the Forcite module, respectively. The protective effect and failure mechanism of ZrO₂ coating on Zry-4 under varied LiOH concentrations was further revealed by comparison with the coating corrosion performance in pure water (namely 0 ppm Li). ZrO₂ coating provided a favorable corrosion protection with the occurrence of localized corrosion at low LiOH concentrations. Factors influencing corrosion resistance mainly include pitting corrosion extension, enhanced Li+ permeation, short-circuit diffusion of O²⁻ and ZrO₂ phase transformation. In highly-concentrated LiOH solutions, intergranular corrosion, internal oxidation, and perforation resulted in coating failure. Zr ions were released to coating surface to form flocculent ZrO₂ and ZrO₂ clusters due to the strong diffusion and dissolution tendency of α-Zr in the Zry-4 substrate. Considering that primary water of Pressurized Water Reactors usually includes 2.3 ppm Li, the stability of ZrO₂ make itself a candidate fuel cladding coating material. Under unfavorable conditions with high Li concentrations, more boric acid should be added to alleviate caustic corrosion of ZrO₂ coating once it is used. This work can provide some references to understand the service behavior of nuclear coatings under variable water chemistry conditions and promote the in-pile application of ZrO₂ coating.

Keywords: ZrO₂ coating, Zry-4, corrosion behavior, failure mechanism, LiOH concentration

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Süleyman Günes

Abstract:

The crucial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have on social and economic systems in Turkey as well as all over the world. It has impacted logistic providers and worldwide supply chains. Unexpected risks played a central role in creating vulnerabilities for logistics service operations during the pandemic terms. This study aims to research and design qualitative and quantitive contributions to logistic services. The COVID-19 pandemic brought unavoidable risks to the logistics industry in Turkey. The Logistic Service Providers (LSPs) have learned how to ensure uncertainties and risks triggered by main and adverse effects. The risks that LSPs encounter during the COVID-19 pandemic have been investigated and unveiled, and identified uncertainties and risks. The cause-effect structures were displayed by the qualitative and quantitive studies. The results suggest that supply chains and demand changes triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic while it influenced financial failure and forecast horizon with operational performances.

Keywords: logistic service providers, COVID-19, development, financial failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Xin-Yan Ji

Abstract:

The historical failures data of the spacecraft is very useful to improve the spacecraft design and the test philosophies and reduce the spacecraft flight risk. A study of spacecraft failures data was performed, which is the most comprehensive statistics of spacecrafts in China. 2593 on-orbit failures data and 1298 ground data that occurred on 150 spacecraft launched from 2000 to 2016 were identified and collected, which covered the navigation satellites, communication satellites, remote sensing deep space exploration manned spaceflight platforms. In this paper, the failures were analyzed to compare different spacecraft subsystem and estimate their impact on the mission, then the development of spacecraft in China was evaluated from design, software, workmanship, management, parts, and materials. Finally, the lessons learned from the past years show that electrical and mechanical failures are responsible for the largest parts, and the key solution to reduce in-orbit failures is improving design technology, enough redundancy, adequate space environment protection measures, and adequate ground testing.

Keywords: spacecraft anomalies, anomalies mechanism, failure cause, spacecraft testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Rouhallah Bagheri, Morteza Mahmoudi, Hadi Moheb-Alizadeh

Abstract:

This paper aims at developing a multi-objective model for supplier selection and order allocation problem in stochastic environment, where purchasing cost, percentage of delivered items with delay and percentage of rejected items provided by each supplier are supposed to be stochastic parameters following any arbitrary probability distribution. In this regard, dependent chance programming is used which maximizes probability of the event that total purchasing cost, total delivered items with delay and total rejected items are less than or equal to pre-determined values given by decision maker. The abovementioned stochastic multi-objective programming problem is then transformed into a stochastic single objective programming problem using minimum deviation method. In the next step, the further problem is solved applying a genetic algorithm, which performs a simulation process in order to calculate the stochastic objective function as its fitness function. Finally, the impact of stochastic parameters on the given solution is examined via a sensitivity analysis exploiting coefficient of variation. The results show that whatever stochastic parameters have greater coefficients of variation, the value of the objective function in the stochastic single objective programming problem is deteriorated.

Keywords: supplier selection, order allocation, dependent chance programming, genetic algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 308

Authors: Sabry Shaaban, Tom McNamara, Sarah Hudson

Abstract:

This paper investigates the benefits of deliberately unbalancing both operation time means (MTs) and unreliability (failure and repair rates) for non-automated production lines.The lines were simulated with various line lengths, buffer capacities, degrees of imbalance and patterns of MT and unreliability imbalance. Data on two performance measures, namely throughput (TR) and average buffer level (ABL) were gathered, analyzed and compared to a balanced line counterpart. A number of conclusions were made with respect to the ranking of configurations, as well as to the relationships among the independent design parameters and the dependent variables. It was found that the best configurations are a balanced line arrangement and a monotone decreasing MT order, coupled with either a decreasing or a bowl unreliability configuration, with the first generally resulting in a reduced TR and the second leading to a lower ABL than those of a balanced line.

Keywords: unreliable production lines, unequal mean operation times, unbalanced failure and repair rates, throughput, average buffer level

Procedia PDF Downloads 480