Timing and Probability of Presurgical Teledermatology: Survival Analysis

Authors: Felipa de Mello-Sampayo

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to undertake, from patient’s perspective, the timing and probability of using teledermatology, comparing it with a conventional referral system. The dynamic stochastic model’s main value-added consists of the concrete application to patients waiting for dermatology surgical intervention. Patients with low health level uncertainty must use teledermatology treatment as soon as possible, which is precisely when the teledermatology is least valuable. The results of the model were then tested empirically with the teledermatology network covering the area served by the Hospital Garcia da Horta, Portugal, links the primary care centers of 24 health districts with the hospital’s dermatology department via the corporate intranet of the Portuguese healthcare system. Health level volatility can be understood as the hazard of developing skin cancer and the trend of health level as the bias of developing skin lesions. The results of the survival analysis suggest that the theoretical model can explain the use of teledermatology. It depends negatively on the volatility of patients' health, and positively on the trend of health, i.e., the lower the risk of developing skin cancer and the younger the patients, the more presurgical teledermatology one expects to occur. Presurgical teledermatology also depends positively on out-of-pocket expenses and negatively on the opportunity costs of teledermatology, i.e., the lower the benefit missed by using teledermatology, the more presurgical teledermatology one expects to occur.

Keywords: teledermatology, wait time, uncertainty, opportunity cost, survival analysis