Search results for: generalized assignment problem

Authors: Sisay Tiroro Salato

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Background: Ethiopia has been implementing the maternal death surveillance and response system to provide real-time actionable information, including causes of death and contributing factors. Analysis of maternal mortality surveillance data was conducted to identify the causes and underlying factors in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: We carried out a retrospective surveillance data analysis of 324 maternal deaths reported in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from 2017 to 2021. The data were extracted from the national maternal death surveillance and response database, including information from case investigation, verbal autopsy, and facility extraction forms. The data were analyzed by computing frequency and presented in numbers, proportions, and ratios. Results: Of 324 maternal deaths, 92% died in the health facilities, 6.2% in transit, and 1.5% at home. The mean age at death was 28 years, ranging from 17 to 45. The maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births was 77for the five years, ranging from 126 in 2017 to 21 in 2021. The direct and indirect causes of death were responsible for 87% and 13%, respectively. The direct causes included obstetric haemorrhage, hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, puerperal sepsis, embolism, obstructed labour, and abortion. The third delay (delay in receiving care after reaching health facilities) accounted for 57% of deaths, while the first delay (delay in deciding to seek health care) and the second delay (delay in reaching health facilities) and accounted for 34% and 24%, respectively. Late arrival to the referral facility, delayed management after admission, andnon-recognition of danger signs were underlying factors. Conclusion: Over 86% of maternal deaths were attributed by avoidable direct causes. The majority of women do try to reach health services when an emergency occurs, but the third delays present a major problem. Improving the quality of care at the healthcare facility level will help to reduce maternal death.

Keywords: maternal death, surveillance, delays, factors

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Authors: Muhammad Faheem Khakhi, Jian Yu Wang, Salman Muhammad, Muhammad Faisal Shabir

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Population growth and Chinese two-child policy will boost pharmaceutical market, and it will continue to maintain the growth for a period of time in the future, the traditional pharmacy dispensary has been unable to meet the growing medical needs of the peoples. Under the strong support of the national policy, the automatic transformation of traditional pharmacies is the inclination of the Times, the new type of intelligent pharmacy system will continue to promote the development of the pharmaceutical industry. Under this background, based on PLC control, the paper proposed an intelligent storage and automatic drug delivery system; complete design of the lower computer's control system and the host computer's software system has been present. The system can be applied to dispensing work for Chinese herbal medicinal and Western medicines. Firstly, the essential of intelligent control system for pharmacy is discussed. After the analysis of the requirements, the overall scheme of the system design is presented. Secondly, introduces the software and hardware design of the lower computer's control system, including the selection of PLC and the selection of motion control system, the problem of the human-computer interaction module and the communication between PC and PLC solves, the program design and development of the PLC control system is completed. The design of the upper computer software management system is described in detail. By analyzing of E-R diagram, built the establish data, the communication protocol between systems is customize, C++ Builder is adopted to realize interface module, supply module, main control module, etc. The paper also gives the implementations of the multi-threaded system and communication method. Lastly, each module of the lower computer control system is tested. Then, after building a test environment, the function test of the upper computer software management system is completed. On this basis, the entire control system accepts the overall test.

Keywords: automatic pharmacy, PLC, control system, management system, communication

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Authors: El Harraj Abdeslam, Raissouni Naoufal

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The detection of moving objects from a video image sequences is very important for object tracking, activity recognition, and behavior understanding in video surveillance. The most used approach for moving objects detection / tracking is background subtraction algorithms. Many approaches have been suggested for background subtraction. But, these are illumination change sensitive and the solutions proposed to bypass this problem are time consuming. In this paper, we propose a robust yet computationally efficient background subtraction approach and, mainly, focus on the ability to detect moving objects on dynamic scenes, for possible applications in complex and restricted access areas monitoring, where moving and motionless persons must be reliably detected. It consists of three main phases, establishing illumination changes in variance, background/foreground modeling and morphological analysis for noise removing. We handle illumination changes using Contrast Limited Histogram Equalization (CLAHE), which limits the intensity of each pixel to user determined maximum. Thus, it mitigates the degradation due to scene illumination changes and improves the visibility of the video signal. Initially, the background and foreground images are extracted from the video sequence. Then, the background and foreground images are separately enhanced by applying CLAHE. In order to form multi-modal backgrounds we model each channel of a pixel as a mixture of K Gaussians (K=5) using Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). Finally, we post process the resulting binary foreground mask using morphological erosion and dilation transformations to remove possible noise. For experimental test, we used a standard dataset to challenge the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method on a diverse set of dynamic scenes.

Keywords: video surveillance, background subtraction, contrast limited histogram equalization, illumination invariance, object tracking, object detection, behavior understanding, dynamic scenes

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Authors: Bartelsen-Raemy Annabelle, Gerber Andrea

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Objectives: The adoption of the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities has the effect that higher education institutions in Switzerland are called upon to promote inclusive university education. In this context, our School of Social Work aims to provide fair participation and the removal of barriers in our study programmes at bachelor’s and master’s levels. In 2015 we developed a concept of reasonable adjustments for students with disabilities and chronic illness as an instrument to provide equal opportunities for those students. We reviewed the implementation of this concept as part of our quality management process. Using a qualitative research design, we explored how affected students and lecturers experience the processes and measures taken and which barriers they still perceive. Methods: We captured subjective perspectives and experience of measures by conducting 15 problem-centred interviews with affected students and three experimental focus groups with lecturers. The data was processed using structured qualitative content analysis and summarised as key categories. Results: All respondents evaluated the concept of reasonable adjustment very positively and emphasised its importance for equal opportunities. Our analysis revealed differences in the usage and perception of both groups and showed that the students interviewed were a heterogeneous group with different needs. Overall, the students described the adjustments, in particular in relation to examinations and other assignments, as a great relief. The lecturers expressed high standards for their own teaching and supervision of students and, at the same time, wished for more support from the university. However, despite the positive evaluation by the lecturers, the limits of reasonable adjustment became evident. It is necessary to consider the limits of reasonable adjustments in terms of professional skills. Conclusion: Reasonable adjustments should, therefore, be seen as an element of an inclusive university culture that must be complemented by further measures. Taking this into account, we have planned further research as a basis for the development of a diversity and inclusion policy.

Keywords: opportunities and limits, reasonable adjustment, social work education, students with disabilities

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Authors: Kanika Saxena, Sunita Balani

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Purpose - The aim of the study is to compare the reported sustainability activities in areas of emission, water management and gender equality, currently undertaken by the seven major pharmaceutical companies. Methodology: The published corporate sustainability activity reports for the year 2017 for seven pharmaceutical companies have been studied. The two main criteria for the inclusion of pharmaceutical companies in this study are that they are globally recognized and active in the field of sustainability reporting. Company’s actions and initiatives have been grouped under three categories: (i) Emissions (ii) Water management (iii) Gender Equality in terms of employee workforce. Findings: Based on the sustainability reports, quantification and grading of the companies showed interesting results. Johnson & Johnson and Bayer are leading their activities under emissions and water management categories. The number of activities under emission and water management in case of Eli Lily, Roche, Sanofi, Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline were 19, 16, 16, 11 and 6 respectively. Johnson & Johnson and Eli Lily are leading in taking the initiatives to curb the problem of emissions as compared with other 5 companies. Under the category of gender equality in terms of employee workforce, Eli Lily is leading the group of sampled companies with 47% of women employee workforce globally followed by Sanofi with 46.2% (42.2% of managers) female employees. It has also been observed that in some of the reports, gender diversification in the workforce has not been mentioned though the total number of employees were mentioned. Conclusion: This study could serve as the informative material for future in-depth industry-specific studies in order to find out the participation of the pharmaceutical companies in the reporting of the sustainability activities especially in reference to emission, water management and gender equality in the workforce. In addition to it, this can be helpful as a reference point for other companies in the pharmaceutical sector who are yet to explore the field of sustainability initiatives and reporting. Due to the limited scope of this study, only seven major players of the pharmaceutical sector who are active in the field of sustainability have been considered.

Keywords: emission, gender equality workforce, pharmaceutical, sustainability, water management

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Authors: H. K. Ratre, M. Roy, S. Roy, M. S. Parmar, V. Bhagat

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Mastitis is a common problem of dairy industries. Reduction in milk production and an irreparable damage to the udder associated with the disease are common causes of culling of dairy cows. Milk from infected animals is not suitable for drinking and for making different milk products. So, it has a major economic importance in dairy cattle. The aims of this study were to investigate the bacteriological panorama in milk from udder quarters with subclinical mastitis and to carried out for the molecular characterization of the major isolated organisms, from subclinical mastitis-affected cows in and around Durg and Rajnandgaon district of Chhattisgarh. Isolation and identification of bacteria from the milk samples of subclinical mastitis-affected cows were done by standard and routine culture procedures. A total of 78 isolates were obtained from cows and among the various bacteria isolated, Staphylococcus spp. occupied prime position with occurrence rate of 51.282%. However, other bacteria isolated includeStreptococcus spp. (20.512%), Micrococcus spp. (14.102%), E. coli (8.974%), Klebsiela spp. (2.564%), Salmonella spp. (1.282%) and Proteus spp. (1.282%). Staphylococcus spp. was isolated as the major causative agent of subclinical mastitis in the studied area. Molecular characterization of Staphylococus aureusisolates was done for genetic expression of the virulence genes like ‘nuc’ encoding thermonucleaseexoenzyme, coa and spa by PCR amplification of the respective genes in 25 Staphylococcus isolates. In the present study, 15 isolates (77.27%) out of 20 coagulase positive isolates were found to be genotypically positive for ‘nuc’ where as 20 isolates (52.63%) out of 38 CNS expressed the presence of the same virulence gene. In the present study, three Staphylococcus isolates were found to be genotypically positive for coa gene. The Amplification of the coa gene yielded two different products of 627, 710 bp. The amplification of the gene segment encoding the IgG binding region of protein A (spa) revealed a size of 220 and 253bp in twostaphylococcus isolates. The X-region binding of the spa gene produced an amplicon of 315 bp in one Staphylococcal isolates. Staphylococcus aureus was found to be major isolate (51.28%) responsible for causing subclinical mastitis in cows which also showed expression of virulence genesnuc, coa and spa.

Keywords: mastitis, bacteria, characterization, expression, gene

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Authors: Ramesh Bhat, Ammu Somanath, A. K. Nayanatara

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Background: The increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity is a critical public health problem for women. The negative effect of stress on memory and cognitive functions has been widely explored for decades in numerous research projects using a wide range of methodology. Deterioration of memory and other brain functions are hallmarks of Alzheimer’s disease. Estrogen fluctuations and withdrawal have myriad direct effects on the central nervous system that have the potential to influence cognitive functions. Aim: The present study aims to compare the effect of stress on the cognitive functions in overweight/obese women before and after menopause. Material and Methods: A total of 142 female subjects constituting women before menopause between the age group of 18–44 years and women after menopause between the age group of 45–60 years were included in the sample. Participants were categorized into overweight/obese groups based on the body mass index. The Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) the major tool was used for measuring the perception of stress. Based on the stress scale measurement each group was classified into with stress and without stress. Addenbrooke’s cognitive Examination-III was used for measuring the cognitive functions. Results: Premenopausal women with stress showed a significant (P<0.05) decrease in the cognitive parameters such as attention and orientation Fluency, language and visuospatial ability. Memory did not show any significant change in this group. Whereas, in the postmenopausal stressed women all the cognitive functions except fluency showed a significant (P<0.05) decrease after menopause stressed group. Conclusion: Stress is a significant factor on the cognitive functions of obese and overweight women before and after menopause. Practice of Yoga, Encouragement in activities like gardening, embroidery, games and relaxation techniques should be recommended to prevent stress. Insights into the neurobiology before and after menopause can be gained from future studies examining the effect on the HPA axis in relation to cognition and stress.

Keywords: cognition, stress, premenopausal, body mass index

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Authors: Beata Bilska, Marzena Tomaszewska, Danuta Kolozyn-Krajewska

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Food loss and food waste are a global problem of the modern economy. The research undertaken aimed to analyze how food is handled in catering establishments when it comes to food waste and to demonstrate the main ways of management with foods/dishes not served to consumers. A survey study was conducted from January to June 2019. The selection of catering establishments participating in the study was deliberate. The study included establishments located only in Mazowieckie Voivodeship (Poland). Forty-two completed questionnaires were collected. In some questions, answers were based on a 5-point scale of 1 to 5 (from "always" / "every day" to "never"). The survey also included closed questions with a suggested cafeteria of answers. The respondents stated that in their workplaces, dishes served cold and hot ready meals are discarded every day or almost every day (23.7% and 20.5% of answers respectively). A procedure most frequently used for dealing with dishes not served to consumers on a given day is their storage at a cool temperature until the following day. In the research, 1/5 of respondents admitted that consumers "always" or "usually" leave uneaten meals on their plates, and over 41% "sometimes" do so. It was found additionally that food not used in the foodservice sector is most often thrown into a public container for rubbish. Most often thrown into the public container (with communal trash) were: expired products (80.0%), plate waste (80.0%) and inedible products (fruit and vegetable peels, eggshells) (77.5%). Most frequently into the container dedicated only to food waste were thrown out used deep-frying oil (62.5%). 10% of respondents indicated that inedible products in their workplaces are allocated for animal feeds. Food waste in the foodservice sector remains an insufficiently studied issue, as owners of these objects are often unwilling to disclose data about the subject. Incorrect ways of management with foods not served to consumers were observed. There is a need to develop educational activities for employees and management in the context of food waste management in the foodservice sector.

Keywords: food waste, inedible products, plate waste, used deep-frying oil

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Authors: C. F. Alegretti, F. R. Cunha, R. G. Gontijo

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This work investigates the effects of an applied magnetic field on the geometry-driven boundary layer detachment flow of a ferrofluid over a sudden expansion. Both constitutive equation and global magnetization equation for a ferrofluid are considered. Therefore, the proposed formulation consists in a coupled magnetic-hydrodynamic problem. Computational simulations are carried out in order to explore, not only the viability to control flow instabilities, but also to evaluate the consistency of theoretical aspects. The unidirectional sudden expansion in a ferrofluid flow is investigated numerically under the perspective of Ferrohydrodynamics in a two-dimensional domain using a Finite Differences Method. The boundary layer detachment induced by the sudden expansion results in a recirculating zone, which has been extensively studied in non-magnetic hydrodynamic problems for a wide range of Reynolds numbers. Similar investigations can be found in literature regarding the sudden expansion under the magnetohydrodynamics framework, but none considering a colloidal suspension of magnetic particles out of the superparamagnetic regime. The vorticity-stream function formulation is implemented and results in a clear coupling between the flow vorticity and its magnetization field. Our simulations indicate a systematic decay on the length of the recirculation zone as increasing physical parameters of the flow, such as the intensity of the applied field and the volume fraction of particles. The results all are discussed from a physical point of view in terms of the dynamical non-dimensional parameters. We argue that the decrease/reduction in the recirculation region of the flow is a direct consequence of the magnetic torque balancing the action of the torque produced by viscous and inertial forces of the flow. For the limit of small Reynolds and magnetic Reynolds parameters, the diffusion of vorticity balances the diffusion of the magnetic torque on the flow. These mechanics control the growth of the recirculation region.

Keywords: boundary layer detachment, ferrofluid, ferrohydrodynamics, magnetization, sudden expansion

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Authors: Yeganeh Attari, Gudmund Reidar Eiksund, Hans Peter Jostad

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In Geotechnical practice, there is no standard method recognized by the industry to account for the reduction of safety factor of a slope as an effect of soil displacement and pore pressure build-up during pile installation. Pile driving disturbs causes large strains and generates excess pore pressures in a zone that can extend many diameters from the installed pile, resulting in a decrease of the shear strength of the surrounding soil. This phenomenon may cause slope failure. Moreover, dissipation of excess pore pressure set-up may cause weakening of areas outside the volume of soil remoulded during installation. Because of complex interactions between changes in mean stress and shearing, it is challenging to predict installation induced pore pressure response. Furthermore, it is a complex task to follow the rate and path of pore pressure dissipation in order to analyze slope stability. In cohesive soils it is necessary to implement soil models that account for strain softening in the analysis. In the literature, several cases of slope failure due to pile driving activities have been reported, for instance, a landslide in Gothenburg that resulted in a slope failure destroying more than thirty houses and Rigaud landslide in Quebec which resulted in loss of life. Up to now, several methods have been suggested to predict the effect of pile driving on total and effective stress, pore pressure changes and their effect on soil strength. However, this is still not well understood or agreed upon. In Norway, general approaches applied by geotechnical engineers for this problem are based on old empirical methods with little accurate theoretical background. While the limitations of such methods are discussed, this paper attempts to capture the reduction in the factor of safety of a slope during pile driving, using coupled Finite Element analysis and cavity expansion method. This is demonstrated by analyzing a case of slope failure due to pile driving in Norway.

Keywords: cavity expansion method, excess pore pressure, pile driving, slope failure

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Authors: Mohamed Moheyeldin Mahmoud

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Egypt suffers from a severe shortage of data and charts concerning the physical dimensions, measurements, qualities and consumer behavior. The shortage of needed information and appropriate methods has forced the Egyptian designer to use any other foreign standard when designing a product for the Egyptian consumer which has led to many problems. The urgently needed database concerning the physical specifications, measurements of the Egyptian consumers, as well as the need to support the Ergonomics given courses in many colleges and institutes with the latest technologies, is stated as the research problem. Descriptive analytical method relying on the compiling, comparing and analyzing of information and facts in order to get acceptable perceptions, ideas and considerations is the used methodology by the researcher. The research concludes that: 1. Good interaction relationship between users and products shows the success of that product. 2. An integration linkage between the most prominent fields of science specially Ergonomics, Interaction Design and Ethnography should be encouraged to provide an ultimately updated database concerning the nature, specifications and environment of the Egyptian consumer, in order to achieve a higher benefit for both user and product. 3. Chinese economic policy based on the study of market requirements long before any market activities should be emulated. 4. Using Ethnography supports the design activities creating new products or updating existent ones through measuring the compatibility of products with their environment and user expectations, While contracting a joint cooperation between military colleges, sports education institutes from one side, and design institutes from the other side to provide an ultimately updated (annually updated) database concerning some specifications about students of both sexes applying in those institutes (height, weight, etc.) to provide the Industrial designer with the needed information when creating a new product or updating an existing one concerning that category is recommended by the researcher.

Keywords: adapt, ergonomics, ethnography, interaction design

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Authors: Karim Monir Halim Salib

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The article discusses the use of modern technology to achieve environmental marketing goals in business and customer relations. The purpose of this article is to show the possibilities of the application of modern technology. In B2C relationships, marketing departments face challenges arising from the need to quickly segment customers and share information across multiple systems, which seriously hinders the achievement of marketing objectives. Therefore, the Article states that modern IT solutions are used in the marketing of business activities, taking into account environmental objectives. For this reason, its importance in the economic and social development of developing countries has increased. While traditional companies emphasize profit as the most important business principle, social enterprises have to address social issues at the expense of profit. This mindset gives social enterprises more than traditional businesses to meet the needs of those at the bottom of the pyramid. This also poses a great challenge for social business, as social business works for the public good on the one hand and financial stability on the other. Otherwise, the company cannot be evacuated. Cultures are involved in business communication and research. Using the example of language in international relations, the article poses the problem of cultural discourse in management and linguistic and cultural studies. After reviewing current research on language in international relations, this article presents communication methods in the international economy from a linguistic perspective and attempts to explain communication problems in business from the perspective of linguistic research. A step towards multidisciplinary research combining research in management and linguistics.

Keywords: international marketing, marketing mix, marketing research, small and medium-sized enterprises, strategic marketing, B2B digital marketing strategy, digital marketing, digital marketing maturity model, SWOT analysis consumer behavior, experience, experience marketing, marketing employee organizational performance, internal marketing, internal customer, direct marketing, mobile phones mobile marketing, Sms advertising.

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Authors: Ferdi Sönmez, Nihal Yorulmaz

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Decision making on the true planning of the public transportation systems to serve potential users is a must for metropolitan areas. To take attraction of travelers to projected modes of transport, adequately fair overall travel times should be provided. In this fashion, other benefits such as lower traffic congestion, road safety and lower noise and atmospheric pollution may be earned. The congestion which comes with increasing demand of public transportation is becoming a part of our lives and making residents’ life difficult. Hence, regulations should be done to reduce this congestion. To provide a constructive and balanced regulation in public transportation systems, right stations should be located in right places. In this study, it is aimed to design and implement a Decision Support System (DSS) Application to determine the optimal bus stop places for public transport in Istanbul which is one of the biggest and oldest cities in the world. Required information is gathered from IETT (Istanbul Electricity, Tram and Tunnel) Enterprises which manages all public transportation services in Istanbul Metropolitan Area. By using the most real-like values, cost assignments are made. The cost is calculated with the help of equations produced by bi-level optimization model. For this study, 300 buses, 300 drivers, 10 lines and 110 stops are used. The user cost of each station and the operator cost taken place in lines are calculated. Some components like cost, security and noise pollution are considered as significant factors affecting the solution of set covering problem which is mentioned for identifying and locating the minimum number of possible bus stops. Preliminary research and model development for this study refers to previously published article of the corresponding author. Model results are represented with the intent of decision support to the specialists on locating stops effectively.

Keywords: operator cost, bi-level optimization model, user cost, urban transportation

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Authors: Hesti Ghassani, Tessa Septiadi

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In the world we live on today, young generation highly influences the future of a nation. We have to concern that the condition of the country in 20 years later depending by the character of young adults these days. Therefore, it is important that we have to support and control the teenagers especially in one of developing countries in which I live in: Indonesia. Indonesia is a home to 240 million people. It diverse in languages, cultures, as well as attitudes. The differences among each individual lead us to think that there is something we have to take care of. It is necessary to pay attention to the nutrition consumed by the nation. We initiate to control the food consumed by young generation as early as a primary students. Nutrition affects the immune of the body, neuron system, and, most importantly brain. One of the nutrition that has to be fulfilled is milk. However, most of the population in Indonesia isn’t aware of the importance of consuming milk as their daily basis. We’ve formed an innovation called the Brilliant Candy which is affordable and rich in nutrition. So that is why the paper made by literature study to solve the problem with effective ways using available resources, practice and cheap. Brilliant Candy consists of Centella asiatica extract mixed with Soy milk. Centella asiatica contains of alkaloid which give the energy to brain and circulate oxygen. Based on the research of Sathya and Ganga, Centella asiatica can increase the intelligence. Indeed, Centella asiatica can relieve stress, and help us in staying focus. Soy milk is a kind of milk which come from extracted soybean. Soybean is rich in flafonoid. It has various advantages for our body. Which can also support child nutrition consumed. Soybean boosts immune system, helps digestive system, and in terms of food, soy bean exists as a source of nutrition. A method to get extraction of Centella asiatica is namely maserasi using ethanol. While making soybean milk with got the pollen of soybean. Both materials get mixed processed into hard candy with congelation of.

Keywords: Indonesia, Centella asiatica, Soy milk, alkaloid, flafonoid

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Authors: Abdelsalam Elawwad, Mostafa Ragab, Hisham Abdel-Halim

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Leakage in sewerage system can cause groundwater and soil contamination in urban areas, especially in area with a high groundwater table. This is a serious problem in small villages in developing countries that rely on ground water as a source for irrigation and drinking purposes. In the developed countries, the recent trend in areas with low population densities is vacuum sewerage system, which is environmentally safer than conventional gravity system, protecting public health, preventing exfiltration to the ground water, very easily applied in a relatively short time and can cope with a faster expansion of the urbanized areas. The aim of this work is to assess the feasibility of using vacuum sewerage in developing country, such as Egypt. Knowledge of local conditions can determine the most suitable sewer system for a specific region. Technical, environmental and financial comparisons between conventional sewerage system and vacuum sewerage system were held using statistical analysis. Different conditions, such as population densities, geometry of area, and ground water depths were evaluated. Sample comprising of 30 Egyptian villages was selected, where a complete design for conventional sewerage system and vacuum sewerage system was done. Based on this study, it is recommended from the environmental point of view to construct the vacuum sewerage system in such villages with low population densities; however, it is not economic for all cases. From financial point of view, vacuum sewerage system was a good competitor to conventional systems in flat areas and areas with high groundwater table. The local market supplying of the construction equipment especially collection chambers will greatly affect the investment cost. Capacity building and social mobilization will also play a great role in sustainability of this system. At the end, it is noteworthy that environmental sustainability and public health are more important than the financial aspects.

Keywords: ground water, conventional system, vacuum system, statistics, cost, density, terrain

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Authors: Legkikh Victoria

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The purpose of keeping bi/multilingualism is usually a way to let the child speak two/three languages at the same level. The main problem which normally appears is a mixed language or a domination of one language. The same level of two or more languages would be ideal but practically not easily reachable. So it was made an experiment with a girl with a natural multilingualism as an attempt to avoid a dominant language in the preschool age. The girl lives in Germany and the main languages for her are Italian, Russian and German but she also hears every day English. ‘One parent – one language’ strategy was used since the beginning so Italian and Russian were spoken to her since her birth, English was spoken between the parents and when she was 1,5 it was added German as a language of a nursery. In order to avoid a dominant language, she was always put in international groups with activity in different languages. Even if it was not possible to avoid an interference of languages in this case we can talk not only about natural multilingualism but also about balanced bilingualism in preschool time. The languages have been developing in parallel with different accents in a different period. Now at the age of 6 we can see natural horizontal multilingualism Russian/Italian/German/English. At the moment, her Russian/Italian bilingualism is balanced. German vocabulary is less but the language is active and English is receptive. We can also see a reciprocal interference of all the three languages (English is receptive so the simple phrases are normally said correctly but they are not enough to judge the level of language interference and it is not noticed any ‘English’ mistakes in other languages). After analysis of the state of every language, we can see as a positive and negative result of the experiment. As a positive result we can see that in the age of 6 the girl does not refuse any language, three languages are active, she differentiate languages and even if she says a word from another language she notifies that it is not a correct word, and the most important are the fact, that she does not have a preferred language. As a prove of the last statement it is to be noticed not only her self-identification as ‘half Russian and half Italian’ but also an answer to the question about her ‘mother tongue’: ‘I do not know, probably, when I have my own children I will speak one day Russian and one day Italian and sometimes German’. As a negative result, we can notice that not only a development of all the three languages are a little bit slower than it is supposed for her age but since she does not have a dominating language she also does not have a ‘perfect’ language and the interference is reciprocal. In any case, the experiment shows that it is possible to keep at least two languages without a preference in a pre-school multilingual space.

Keywords: balanced bilingualism, language interference, natural multilingualism, preschool multilingual education

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Authors: Moetazza M. Alshafei, Ahmed M. Mabrouk, Emtenan M. Hanafi, Manal M. Ramadan, Reda M. S. Korany, Seham S. Kassem, Dina Mostafa Mohammed

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Metabolic syndrome (MeS) is a major health problem with a high incidence of obese individuals worldwide. Increased related morbidity of diabetes, hypertension and fatty liver disease, and complicated cardiovascular disease are inevitable. Boswellia serrata gum (Bos) is a promising traditional medicinal plant; it has several pharmacological properties, including anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and antilipase activities. Probiotics (Bac) supplements have good benefits on health and MeS, whether it is supplemented in combination with prebiotics or alone. Microencapsulation helps to mask unpalatable taste and odor and deliver active ingredients to targeted organs. Methodology MeS rat model was produced by feeding rats with a high fat, high CHO diet (HFD). Bos was extracted, and both Bos and the probiotic were microencapsulated with a spray drier. Female rats were divided into 5 groups (N8). HFD control, control normal receiving basic diet, HFD treated, from the start of the experiment, either with encapsulated Bos, Bac and Bos or Bac only, all treatments were received for eight weeks (after approval from NRC animal ethical committee). Serum was collected to analyze lipid profile, blood sugar, liver and kidney functions, antioxidants, leptin, and progesterone. Rat's organs and body fat were weighed and collected for histopathology. Statistical analysis was done by use of one way Anova test in the SPSS program. Results showed control of elevated body weight, lipid profile, and glucose levels as well as decrease of body fat index and improvement of histopathology of liver and heart, especially in combination. Conclusion: We concluded that both microencapsulated Bos and probiotics have a controlling effect on MeS parameters.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, Boswellia serata, probiotic, micro-encapsulation, histopathology, liver steatosis

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Authors: Bekir Turedi

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Exploiting the potential of perovskite single-crystal solar cells in optoelectronic applications necessitates overcoming a significant challenge: the low charge collection efficiency at increased thickness, which has restricted their deployment in radiation detectors and nuclear batteries. Our research details a promising approach to this problem, wherein we have successfully fabricated single-crystal MAPbI3 solar cells employing a space-limited inverse temperature crystallization (ITC) methodology. Remarkably, these cells, up to 400-fold thicker than current-generation perovskite polycrystalline films, maintain a high charge collection efficiency even without external bias. The crux of this achievement lies in the long electron diffusion length within these cells, estimated to be around 0.45 mm. This extended diffusion length ensures the conservation of high charge collection and power conversion efficiencies, even as the thickness of the cells increases. Fabricated cells at 110, 214, and 290 µm thickness manifested power conversion efficiencies (PCEs) of 20.0, 18.4, and 14.7% respectively. The single crystals demonstrated nearly optimal charge collection, even when their thickness exceeded 200 µm. Devices of thickness 108, 214, and 290 µm maintained 98.6, 94.3, and 80.4% of charge collection efficiency relative to their maximum theoretical short-circuit current value, respectively. Additionally, we have proposed an innovative, self-consistent technique for ascertaining the electron-diffusion length in perovskite single crystals under operational conditions. The computed electron-diffusion length approximated 446 µm, significantly surpassing previously reported values for this material. In conclusion, our findings underscore the feasibility of fabricating halide perovskite single-crystal solar cells of hundreds of micrometers in thickness while preserving high charge extraction efficiency and PCE. This advancement paves the way for developing perovskite-based optoelectronics necessitating thicker active layers, such as X-ray detectors and nuclear batteries.

Keywords: perovskite, solar cell, single crystal, diffusion length

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Authors: Kabrambam D. Singh, Dinabandhu Sahoo, Yallappa Rajashekar

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Evolution has caused many insects to develop resistance to several synthetic insecticides. This problem along with the persisting concern regarding the health and environmental safety issues of the existing synthetic insecticides has urged the scientific fraternity to look for a new plant-based natural insecticide with inherent eco-friendly nature. Colocasia esculenta var. esculenta (L.) Schott (Araceae family) is widely grown throughout the South- East Asian Countries for its edible corms and leaves. Various physico-chemical and spectroscopic techniques (IR, 1H NMR, 13C NMR and Mass) were used for the isolation and characterization of isolated bioactive molecule named 2, 3-dimethylmaleic anhydride (3, 4-dimethyl-2, 5-furandione). This compound was found to be highly toxic, even at low concentration, against several storage grain pests when used as biofumigant. Experimental studies on the mode of action of 2, 3-dimethylmaleic anhydride revealed that the biofumigant act as inhibitor of acetylcholinesterase enzyme in cockroach and stored grain insects. The knockdown activity of bioactive compound is concurrent with in vivo inhibition of AChE; at KD99 dosage of bioactive molecule showed more than 90% inhibition of AChE activity in test insects. The molecule proved to affect the antioxidant enzyme system; superoxide dismutase (SOD), and catalase (CAT) and also found to decrease reduced glutathione (GSH) level in the treated insects. The above results indicate involvement of inhibition of AChE activity and oxidative imbalance as the potential mode of action of 2, 3-dimethylmaleic anhydride. In addition, the study reveals computational docking programs elaborate the possible interaction of 2, 3-dimethylmaleic anhydride with enzyme acetylcholinesterase (AChE) of Periplaneta americana. Finally, the results represent that toxicity of 2, 3-dimethylmaleic anhydride might be associated with inhibition of AChE activity and oxidative imbalance.

Keywords: 2, 3-dimethylmaleic anhydride, Colocasia esculenta var. esculenta (L.) Schott, Biofumigant, acetylcholinesterase, antioxidant enzyme, molecular docking

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Lydia Novozhilova, Vladimir Urazhdin

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An optimization problem for reinforced thin-walled vessels under uniform external pressure is considered. The conventional approaches to optimization generally start with pre-defined geometric parameters of the vessels, and then employ analytic or numeric calculations and/or experimental testing to verify functionality, such as stability under the projected conditions. The proposed approach consists of two steps. First, the feasibility domain will be identified in the multidimensional parameter space. Every point in the feasibility domain defines a design satisfying both geometric and functional constraints. Second, an objective function defined in this domain is formulated and optimized. The broader applicability of the suggested methodology is maximized by implementing the Support Vector Machines (SVM) classification algorithm of machine learning for identification of the feasible design region. Training data for SVM classifier is obtained using the Simulation package of SOLIDWORKS®. Based on the data, the SVM algorithm produces a curvilinear boundary separating admissible and not admissible sets of design parameters with maximal margins. Then optimization of the vessel parameters in the feasibility domain is performed using the standard algorithms for the constrained optimization. As an example, optimization of a ring-stiffened closed cylindrical thin-walled vessel with semi-spherical caps under high external pressure is implemented. As a functional constraint, von Mises stress criterion is used but any other stability constraint admitting mathematical formulation can be incorporated into the proposed approach. Suggested methodology has a good potential for reducing design time for finding optimal parameters of thin-walled vessels under uniform external pressure.

Keywords: design parameters, feasibility domain, von Mises stress criterion, Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Muhammed Gündoğan

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Permaculture is an important source of science and experience that can ensure the integration of sustainable architecture with nature. Since the past, many applications have been applied in rural areas for generations with the principle of benefiting from the self-renewal potential of nature. This culture, which has been transferred from generation to generation with architectural disciplines, has the potential to significantly improve the sustainability of the rural area and is an important guide with its nature-based solution proposals. Şanlıurfa has arid and semi-arid climate characteristics. Although it has substantial agricultural potential, water is limited, especially in rural areas. In the region, rainwater harvesting practices such as artificial water canals and cisterns have been used for a long time. However, these solutions remained mostly at the urban scale, and their reflections at the building scale were restricted and inadequate solutions. Impermeable surfaces are required for water harvesting, but water harvesting is not possible as rural buildings are mostly surrounded by cultivated land. Therefore, existing structures are important in terms of applicability. In this context, considering the typology of Traditional Şanlıurfa Houses, the aim of the project was to create a proposal for limited potable and utility water, which is a serious problem, especially for rural buildings in Şanlıurfa. In the project proposal, roof systems that can work integrated with the structural shape of Traditional Şanlıurfa Houses, rainwater collection systems in the inner courtyard, and greywater recycling were provided. While the average precipitation amount was 453.7 kg/m3 between 1929 and 2012, this value was measured as 622.7 kg/m3 in 2012. Greywater was used to produce natural fertilizers and compost for small-scale fruit and vegetable gardens, and it was combined with the principles of Permaculture to make it a lifestyle. As a result, it has been estimated that a total of 976.4 m3 kg of water can be saved, with an annual average of 158.8 m3 of rainwater recycling and 817.6 m3 of greywater recycling within the scope of the project.

Keywords: rural, traditional residential building, permaculture, rainwater harvesting, greywater recycling

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Patrick Nurse, Professor Neil Sebire, Polly Livermore

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The use of digital systems in healthcare is now highly prevalent. With further advancement of technology, these systems will become increasingly utilised within the healthcare sector. Therefore understanding how clinicians (for example, doctors, nurses) interact with technology and digital systems is critical to making care safer. Seven members from the Parent/Carers’ Research Advisory Group and the Young-Persons’ Research Group at a healthcare Trust in London and three staff members contributed to an engagement workshop to assess the impact of digital systems on the practice of nurses. The group also advised on the viability of a research study to investigate this further. A wide range of issues within digital system implementation in healthcare were raised, such as ‘workarounds’, system’s training, and upkeep and regulation of usage, which all emerged as early themes during the discussion. Further discussion focused on the subject of escalation of issues, ‘workarounds’, and problem solving. While challenging to implement, digital systems are hugely beneficial to healthcare providers. The workshop indicated that there is scope for investigation of the prevalence, nature, and escalation of ‘workarounds’, this was of key interest to the advisory group. An interesting concern of the group was their worry from a patient and parental perspective regarding how nurses might feel when needing to complete a ‘workaround’ during a busy shift. This is especially relevant if the reasons to complete the ‘workaround’ were outside the nurse’s control, driven by clinical need and urgency of care. This showed the level of insight that those using healthcare services have into the reality of workflows of those providing care. Additionally, it reflects the desire for patients and families to understand more about the administration and methodology of their care. Future study should be dedicated to understanding why nurses deploy ‘workarounds’, as well as their perspective and experience of them and subsequent escalation through leadership hierarchies

Keywords: patient engagement/involvement, workarounds, medication-administration, digital systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Gulnaz Erkomaishvili

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Introduction. One of the most important issues of state economic policy in the 21st century is the problem of environmental protection. The Georgian government considers the green economy as one of the most important means of sustainable economic development and takes the initiative to implement voluntary measures to promote sustainable development. In this context, it is important to promote the development of ecosystem services, clean production, environmental education and green jobs.The development of the green economy significantly reduces the inefficient use of natural resources, waste generation, emissions into the atmosphere and the discharge of untreated water into bodies of water.It is, therefore, an important instrument in the environmental orientation of sustainable development. Objectives.The aim of the paper is to analyze the current status of the green economy in Georgia and identify effective ways to improve the environmental, economic policy of sustainable development. Methodologies: This paper uses general and specific methods, in particular, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, scientific abstraction, comparative and statistical methods, as well as experts’ evaluation. bibliographic research of scientific works and reports of organizations was conducted; Publications of the National Statistics Office of Georgia are used to determine the regularity between analytical and statistical estimations. Also, theoretical and applied research of international organizations and scientist-economists are used. Contributions: The country should implement such an economic policy that ensures the transition to a green economy, in particular, revising water, air and waste laws, strengthening existing environmental management tools and introcing new tools (including economic tools). Perfecting the regulatory legal framework of the environmental impact assessment system, which includes the harmonization of Georgian legislation with the requirements of the European Union. To ensure the protection and rational use of Georgia's forests, emphasis should be placed on sustainable forestry, protection and restoration of forests.

Keywords: green economy, environmental protection, environmental protection economic policy, environmental protection policy challanges

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Norzaliza Md. Nor, Sh-Hussain Salleh, Mahyar Hamedi, Hadrina Hussain, Wahab Abdul Rahman

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Motivational factor is mainly the students’ desire to involve in learning process. However, it also depends on the goal towards their involvement or non-involvement in academic activity. Even though, the students’ motivation might be in the same level, but the basis of their motivation may differ. In this study, it focuses on the intrinsic motivational factor which student enjoy learning or feeling of accomplishment the activity or study for its own sake. The intrinsic motivational factor of students in learning mathematics and science has found as difficult to be achieved because it depends on students’ interest. In the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) for mathematics and science, Malaysia is ranked as third lowest. The main problem in Malaysian educational system, students tend to have extrinsic motivation which they have to score in exam in order to achieve a good result and enrolled as university students. The use of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals has found to be scarce especially to identify the students’ intrinsic motivational factor in learning science and mathematics. In this research study, we are identifying the correlation between precursor emotion and its dynamic emotion to verify the intrinsic motivational factor of students in learning mathematics and science. The 2-D Affective Space Model (ASM) was used in this research in order to identify the relationship of precursor emotion and its dynamic emotion based on the four basic emotions, happy, calm, fear and sad. These four basic emotions are required to be used as reference stimuli. Then, in order to capture the brain waves, EEG device was used, while Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) was adopted to be used for extracting the features before it will be feed to Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) to classify the valence and arousal axes for the ASM. The results show that the precursor emotion had an influence the dynamic emotions and it identifies that most students have no interest in mathematics and science according to the negative emotion (sad and fear) appear in the EEG signals. We hope that these results can help us further relate the behavior and intrinsic motivational factor of students towards learning of mathematics and science.

Keywords: EEG, MLP, MFCC, intrinsic motivational factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 369

Authors: Tadesse Menjetta, Daniel Dana, Serkadis Debalke

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Schistosomiasis/Bilharziasis is one of the neglected tropical parasitic diseases caused by different species of genus Schistosoma. Among the species, S. mansoni (causative agents of intestinal schistosomiasis) is one of the causes of severe intestinal parasitic infections with high public and medical importance in Ethiopia. There is a scarcity of information about the status of S. mansoni infection among the fisherman in our study area and in the country at large. Therefore, this study was designed to determine the prevalence and risk factors of S.mansoni infection among fishermen at Lake Hawassa, southern Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study was conducted among the fishermen from April to June 2013 in Hawassa, Southern Ethiopia. A total of 243 fishermen were included by systematic sampling from the lists of the fishermen members in the registration book of fishermen associations in the Hawassa Town. Data on socio-demographic features and risk factors were collected by using semi-structured questionnaires. Stool samples were collected and processed using Kato-Katz thick smear techniques and examined between 30- 40 minute for hookworm and after 24 hours for S. mansoni and other soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). The overall prevalence of S.mansoni among the fishermen was 29.21% (71/243), and the mean intensity of infection was 158.88 egg per gram (EPG). The prevalence of intestinal helminths including S. mansoni was 69.54% (169/243). Moreover, the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) was 40.74% (99/243), 35.80% (87/243) and 5.76% (14/243) for A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworm species, respectively. Almost similar prevalence of S.mansoni, 31.82%, 31.75%, 31.94% were recorded in age groups of 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 years, respectively. Fishermen who are swimming always were 2.92 times [95% CI: 1.554, 5.502] more likely to acquire S. mansoni infection than other water contacting habit of the study participants. The results of the current investigation indicated the moderate endemicity of S. mansoni among the fishermen at Lake Hawassa, southern Ethiopia. Fishermen could be the potential risk group for S. mansoni infection and might be responsible for the transmission of S. mansoni to other segments of the communities. Since the high prevalence of STH was recorded among the fishermen, integrated prevention and control strategies from different sectors might be important to tackle the problem.

Keywords: S. mansoni, soil transmitted helminths, fishermen, Lake Hawassa, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Teguh R. Hakim, Frenny F. F. Kairupan, Alberta M. Mantiri

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The face of the coastal city is generally the same as other cities face showing the dualistic, traditional and modern, rural and urbanity, planned and unplanned, slum and high quality. Manado city is located on the northern coastal areas of the island of Sulawesi, Indonesia. Manado city is located on the northern coastal areas of the island of Sulawesi, Indonesia. Urban environmental problems ever occurred in this city, which is the impact of dualistic urban. Overcrowding, inadequate infrastructure, and limited human resources become the main cause of untidiness the coastal settlements in Malalayang. This has an impact on the activities of social, economic, public health level in the environment of coastal City of Manado, Malalayang. This is becoming a serious problem which must be tackled jointly by the government, private parties, and the community. Community-based settlement environment setup, into one solution to realize the city's coastal settlements livable. As for this research aims to analyze the involvement of local communities in arrangements of the settlement. The participatory approach of the model used in this study. Its application is mainly at macro and meso-scale (region, city, and environment) or community architecture. Model participatory approach leads more operational research approach to find a solution/answer to the problems of settlement. The participatory approach is a model for research that involves researchers and society as an object at the same time the subject of research, which in the process in addition to researching also developed other forms of participation in the design and build together. The expected results of this study were able to provide education to the community about environmental and set up a livable settlement for the sake of improving the quality of life. The study also becomes inputs to the government in applying the pattern of development that will be implemented in the future.

Keywords: arrangements the coastal environment, community participation, urban environmental problems, livable settlement

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Yujie Zhao, Jiantao Weng

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In the past decade, with the rapid development of China's economy, the purchasing power and physical demand of residents have been improved, which results in the vast emergence of public buildings like large shopping malls. However, the architects usually focus on the internal functions and streamlines of these buildings, ignoring the impact of the environment on the subjective feelings of building users. Only in Zhejiang province, the infiltration of cold air in winter frequently occurs at the entrance of sizeable commercial complex buildings that have been in operation, which will affect the environmental comfort of the building lobby and internal public spaces. At present, to reduce these adverse effects, it is usually adopted to add active equipment, such as setting air curtains to block air exchange or adding heating air conditioners. From the perspective of energy consumption, the infiltration of cold air into the entrance will increase the heat consumption of indoor heating equipment, which will indirectly cause considerable economic losses during the whole winter heating stage. Therefore, it is of considerable significance to explore the suitable entrance forms for improving the environmental comfort of commercial buildings and saving energy. In this paper, a commercial complex with apparent cold air infiltration problem in Hangzhou is selected as the research object to establish a model. The environmental parameters of the building entrance, including temperature, wind speed, and infiltration air volume, are obtained by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation, from which the heat consumption caused by the natural air infiltration in the winter and its potential economic loss is estimated as the objective metric. This study finally obtains the optimization direction of the building entrance form of the commercial complex by comparing the simulation results of other local commercial complex projects with different entrance forms. The conclusions will guide the entrance design of the same type of commercial complex in this area.

Keywords: air infiltration, commercial complex, heat consumption, CFD simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Bikram Jung Kunwar

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Forests have central roles in climate change. The conservation of forests sequestrates the carbon from the atmosphere and also regulates the carbon cycle. However, knowingly and unknowingly the world’s forests were deforested and degraded annually at the rate of 0.18% and emitted the carbon to the atmosphere. The IPCC reports claimed that the deforestation and forest degradation accounts 1/5th of total carbon emission, which is second position after fossil fuels. Since 1.6 billion people depend on varying degree on forests for their daily livelihood, not all deforestation are undesirable. Therefore, to conserve the forests and find the livelihood opportunities for forest surrounding people is prerequisites to address the climate change problems especially in developing countries, and also a growing concern to the forestry sector researchers, planners and policy makers. The study examines the role of community based forest management in carbon mitigation and adaptation taking the examples of Nepal’s community forestry program. In the program, the government hands over a part of national forests to the local communities with sole forest management authorities. However, the government itself retained the ownership rights of forestland. Local communities organized through a local institution called Community Forest User Group (CFUG) managed the forests. They also formed an operational plan with technical prescriptions and a constitution with forest management rules and regulations. The implementation results showed that the CFUGs are not only found effective to organize the local people and construct a local institution to forest conservation and management activities, but also they are able to collect a community fund from the sale of forest products and carried out various community development activities. These development activities have decisive roles to improve the livelihood of forest surrounding people and eventually to address the climate change problems.

Keywords: climate change, community forestry, local institution, Nepal

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Anshika Kankane, Dongshik Kang

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Marine debris has a significant influence on coastal environments, damaging biodiversity, and causing loss and damage to marine and ocean sector. A functional cost-effective and automatic approach has been used to look up at this problem. Computer vision combined with a deep learning-based model is being proposed to identify and categorize marine debris of seven kinds on different beach locations of Japan. This research compares state-of-the-art deep learning models with a suggested model architecture that is utilized as a feature extractor for debris categorization. The model is being proposed to detect seven categories of litter using a manually constructed debris dataset, with the help of Mask R-CNN for instance segmentation and a shape matching network called HOGShape, which can then be cleaned on time by clean-up organizations using warning notifications of the system. The manually constructed dataset for this system is created by annotating the images taken by fixed KaKaXi camera using CVAT annotation tool with seven kinds of category labels. A pre-trained HOG feature extractor on LIBSVM is being used along with multiple templates matching on HOG maps of images and HOG maps of templates to improve the predicted masked images obtained via Mask R-CNN training. This system intends to timely alert the cleanup organizations with the warning notifications using live recorded beach debris data. The suggested network results in the improvement of misclassified debris masks of debris objects with different illuminations, shapes, viewpoints and litter with occlusions which have vague visibility.

Keywords: computer vision, debris, deep learning, fixed live camera images, histogram of gradients feature extractor, instance segmentation, manually annotated dataset, multiple template matching

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

Procedia PDF Downloads 207