Search results for: statistical modeling

Authors: Chaoge Wang, Xiquan Weng, Yan Meng, Wentao Lin

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Objective: Cold exposure and exercise serve as two physiological stimuli to glycolipid metabolism and insulin sensitivity. So far, it remains to be elucidated whether exercise plus cold exposure can produce an addictive effect on promoting glycolipid metabolism and insulin sensitivity. Methods: 64 SD rats were subjected to high-fat and high-sugar diets for 9-week and sucessfully to establish an obesity model. They were randomly divided into 8 groups: normal control group (NC), normal exercise group (NE), continuous cold control group (CC), continuous cold exercise group (CE), acute clod control group (AC), acute cold exercise group (AE), intermittent cold control group (IC) and intermittent cold exercise group (IE). For continuous cold exposure, the rats stayed in a cold environment all day; for acute cold exposure, the rats were exposed to cold for only 4h before the end of the experiment; for intermittent cold exposure, the rats were exposed to cold for 4h per day. The protocol for treadmill runnings were as follows: 25m/min (speed), 0°C (slope), 30 mins each time, an interval for 10 mins between two runnings, twice/two days, lasting for 5 weeks. Sampling were conducted on the 5th weekend. Blood lipids, free fatty acids, blood glucose (FBG), and serum insulin (FINS) were examined, and the insulin resistance index (HOMA-IR = FBG (mmol/L)×FINS(mIU/L)/22.5) was calculated. SPSS 22.0 was used for statistical analysis of the experimental results, and the ANOVA analysis was performed between groups (p < 0.05 was significant). Results: (1) Compared with the NC group, the FBG of the rats was significantly declined in the NE, CE, AC, AE, and IE groups (p < 0.05), the FINS of the rats was significantly declined in the AE group (p < 0.05), the HOMA-IR of the rats was significantly declined in the NE, CE, AC, AE and IE groups (p < 0.05). Compared with the NE group, the FBG of the rats was significantly declined in the CE, AE, and IE groups (p < 0.05), the FINS and HOMA-IR of the rats were significantly declined in the AE group (p < 0.05). (2) Compared with the NC group, the CHO, TG, LDL-C, and FFA of the rats were significantly declined in CE and IE groups (p < 0.05), the HDL-C of the rats was significantly higher in NE, CC, CE, AE, and IE groups (p < 0.05). Compared with the NE group, the HDL-C of the rats was significantly higher in the CE and IE groups (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Sedentariness or exercise in the acute cold doesn't make sense in the treatment of type 2 diabetes, which led to one-off increases of the body's insulin sensitivity. Exercise in the continuous and intermittent cold can effectively decline the FBG, TC, TG, LDL-C, and FFA levels and increase the HDL-C level and insulin sensitivity in obese rats. These results can impact the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes.

Keywords: cold, exercise, insulin sensitivity, obesity

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Authors: Philipp Galkin

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Government policy is a critical factor in the understanding of energy markets. Regardless, it is rarely approached systematically from a research perspective. Gaining a precise understanding of what policies exist, their intended outcomes, geographical extent, duration, evolution, etc. would enable the research community to answer a variety of questions that, for now, are either oversimplified or ignored. Policy, on its surface, also seems a rather unstructured and qualitative undertaking. There may be quantitative components, but incorporating the concept of policy analysis into quantitative analysis remains a challenge. The KAPSARC Energy Policy Database (KEPD) is intended to address these two energy policy research limitations. Our approach is to represent policies within a quantitative library of the specific policy measures contained within a set of legal documents. Each of these measures is recorded into the database as a single entry characterized by a set of qualitative and quantitative attributes. Initially, we have focused on the major laws at the national level that regulate coal in China. However, KAPSARC is engaged in various efforts to apply this methodology to other energy policy domains. To ensure scalability and sustainability of our project, we are exploring semantic processing using automated computer algorithms. Automated coding can provide a more convenient input data for human coders and serve as a quality control option. Our initial findings suggest that the methodology utilized in KEPD could be applied to any set of energy policies. It also provides a convenient tool to facilitate understanding in the energy policy realm enabling the researcher to quickly identify, summarize, and digest policy documents and specific policy measures. The KEPD captures a wide range of information about each individual policy contained within a single policy document. This enables a variety of analyses, such as structural comparison of policy documents, tracing policy evolution, stakeholder analysis, and exploring interdependencies of policies and their attributes with exogenous datasets using statistical tools. The usability and broad range of research implications suggest a need for the continued expansion of the KEPD to encompass a larger scope of policy documents across geographies and energy sectors.

Keywords: China, energy policy, policy analysis, policy database

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Dawd Ahmed, Venkatesh Uddameri

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Agriculture in Ethiopia is the main economic sector influenced by agricultural drought. A simultaneous assessment of drought trends using multiple drought indicators is useful for drought planning and management. Intra-season and seasonal drought trends in Ethiopia were studied using a suite of drought indicators. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Z-index for long-rainy, dry, and short-rainy seasons are used to identify drought-causing mechanisms. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction and data analyses. Trend analysis indicated shifts in late-season long-rainy season precipitation into dry in the southwest and south-central portions of Ethiopia. Droughts during the dry season (October–January) were largely temperature controlled. Short-term temperature-controlled hydrologic processes exacerbated rainfall deficits during the short rainy season (February–May) and highlight the importance of temperature- and hydrology-induced soil dryness on the production of short-season crops such as tef. Droughts during the long-rainy season (June–September) were largely driven by precipitation declines arising from the narrowing of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Increased dryness during long-rainy season had severe consequences on the production of corn and sorghum. PDSI was an aggressive indicator of seasonal droughts suggesting the low natural resilience to combat the effects of slow-acting, moisture-depleting hydrologic processes. The lack of irrigation systems in the nation limits the ability to combat droughts and improve agricultural resilience. There is an urgent need to monitor soil moisture (a key agro-hydrologic variable) to better quantify the impacts of meteorological droughts on agricultural systems in Ethiopia.

Keywords: autocorrelation, climate change, droughts, Ethiopia, food security, palmer z-index, PDSI, SPEI, SPI, trend analysis

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Authors: A. Soria-Salinas, M.-P. Zorzano, J. Martín-Torres, J. Sánchez-García-Casarrubios, J.-L. Pérez-Díaz, A. Vakkada-Ramachandran

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The current state-of-the-art methods of mass gauging of Electric Propulsion (EP) propellants in microgravity conditions rely on external measurements that are taken at the surface of the tank. The tanks are operated under a constant thermal duty cycle to store the propellant within a pre-defined temperature and pressure range. We demonstrate using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations that the heat-transfer within the pressurized propellant generates temperature and density anisotropies. This challenges the standard mass gauging methods that rely on the use of time changing skin-temperatures and pressures. We observe that the domes of the tanks are prone to be overheated, and that a long time after the heaters of the thermal cycle are switched off, the system reaches a quasi-equilibrium state with a more uniform density. We propose a new gauging method, which we call the Improved PVT method, based on universal physics and thermodynamics principles, existing TRL-9 technology and telemetry data. This method only uses as inputs the temperature and pressure readings of sensors externally attached to the tank. These sensors can operate during the nominal thermal duty cycle. The improved PVT method shows little sensitivity to the pressure sensor drifts which are critical towards the end-of-life of the missions, as well as little sensitivity to systematic temperature errors. The retrieval method has been validated experimentally with CO₂ in gas and fluid state in a chamber that operates up to 82 bar within a nominal thermal cycle of 38 °C to 42 °C. The mass gauging error is shown to be lower than 1% the mass at the beginning of life, assuming an initial tank load at 100 bar. In particular, for a pressure of about 70 bar, just below the critical pressure of CO₂, the error of the mass gauging in gas phase goes down to 0.1% and for 77 bar, just above the critical point, the error of the mass gauging of the liquid phase is 0.6% of initial tank load. This gauging method improves by a factor of 8 the accuracy of the standard PVT retrievals using look-up tables with tabulated data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Keywords: electric propulsion, mass gauging, propellant, PVT, xenon

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Authors: María Teresa Baquero, Ester Higueras

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One of the challenges facing 21st century cities, is their adaptation to the phenomenon of an ageing population. International policies have been developed, such as the "Global Network for Age-friendly Cities and Communities". These cities must recognize the diversity of the elderly population, and facilitate an active, healthy, satisfied aging and promote inclusion. In order to promote active and healthy aging, older people should be encouraged to engage in physical activity, sunbathe, socialize and enjoy the public open spaces in the city. Some studies recognize thermal comfort as one of the factors that most influence the use of public open spaces. However, although some studies have shown vulnerability to thermal extremes and environmental conditions in older people, there is little research on thermal comfort for older adults, because it is usually analyzed based on the characteristics of the ¨average young person¨ without considering the physiological, physical and psychological differences that characterize the elderly. This study analyzes the relationship between the microclimate parameters as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sky view factor (SVF) with the personal thermal perception of older adults in three public spaces in Madrid, through a mixed methodology that combines weather measurements with interviews, made during the year 2018. Statistical test like Chi-square, Spearman, and analysis of variance were used to analyze the relationship between preference votes and thermal sensation votes with environmental and personal parameters. The results show that there is a significant correlation between thermal sensation and thermal preference with the measured air temperature, age, level of clothing, the color of clothing, season, time of the day and kind of space while no influence of gender or other environmental variables was detected. These data would contribute to the design of comfortable public spaces that improve the welfare of the elderly contributing to "active and healthy aging" as one of the 21st century challenges cities face.

Keywords: healthy ageing, older adults, outdoor public space, thermal perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Dale Dzemydiene, Aurelija Burinskiene, Arunas Miliauskas, Kristina Ciziuniene

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Data flow and the purpose of reporting the data are different and dependent on business needs. Different parameters are reported and transferred regularly during freight delivery. This business practices form the dataset constructed for each time point and contain all required information for freight moving decisions. As a significant amount of these data is used for various purposes, an integrating methodological approach must be developed to respond to the indicated problem. The proposed methodology contains several steps: (1) collecting context data sets and data validation; (2) multi-objective analysis for optimizing freight transfer services. For data validation, the study involves Grubbs outliers analysis, particularly for data cleaning and the identification of statistical significance of data reporting event cases. The Grubbs test is often used as it measures one external value at a time exceeding the boundaries of standard normal distribution. In the study area, the test was not widely applied by authors, except when the Grubbs test for outlier detection was used to identify outsiders in fuel consumption data. In the study, the authors applied the method with a confidence level of 99%. For the multi-objective analysis, the authors would like to select the forms of construction of the genetic algorithms, which have more possibilities to extract the best solution. For freight delivery management, the schemas of genetic algorithms' structure are used as a more effective technique. Due to that, the adaptable genetic algorithm is applied for the description of choosing process of the effective transportation corridor. In this study, the multi-objective genetic algorithm methods are used to optimize the data evaluation and select the appropriate transport corridor. The authors suggest a methodology for the multi-objective analysis, which evaluates collected context data sets and uses this evaluation to determine a delivery corridor for freight transfer service in the multi-modal transportation network. In the multi-objective analysis, authors include safety components, the number of accidents a year, and freight delivery time in the multi-modal transportation network. The proposed methodology has practical value in the management of multi-modal transportation processes.

Keywords: multi-objective, analysis, data flow, freight delivery, methodology

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Authors: Djeddi Khaled, Houssou Hind, Miloudi Abdellatif, Rabah Siham

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In the field of veterinary medicine, there is a growing application of artificial intelligence (AI) for diagnosing bovine mastitis, a prevalent inflammatory disease in dairy cattle. AI technologies, such as automated milking systems, have streamlined the assessment of key metrics crucial for managing cow health during milking and identifying prevalent diseases, including mastitis. These automated milking systems empower farmers to implement automatic mastitis detection by analyzing indicators like milk yield, electrical conductivity, fat, protein, lactose, blood content in the milk, and milk flow rate. Furthermore, reports highlight the integration of somatic cell count (SCC), thermal infrared thermography, and diverse systems utilizing statistical models and machine learning techniques, including artificial neural networks, to enhance the overall efficiency and accuracy of mastitis detection. According to a review of 15 publications, machine learning technology can predict the risk and detect mastitis in cattle with an accuracy ranging from 87.62% to 98.10% and sensitivity and specificity ranging from 84.62% to 99.4% and 81.25% to 98.8%, respectively. Additionally, machine learning algorithms and microarray meta-analysis are utilized to identify mastitis genes in dairy cattle, providing insights into the underlying functional modules of mastitis disease. Moreover, AI applications can assist in developing predictive models that anticipate the likelihood of mastitis outbreaks based on factors such as environmental conditions, herd management practices, and animal health history. This proactive approach supports farmers in implementing preventive measures and optimizing herd health. By harnessing the power of artificial intelligence, the diagnosis of bovine mastitis can be significantly improved, enabling more effective management strategies and ultimately enhancing the health and productivity of dairy cattle. The integration of artificial intelligence presents valuable opportunities for the precise and early detection of mastitis, providing substantial benefits to the dairy industry.

Keywords: artificial insemination, automatic milking system, cattle, machine learning, mastitis

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Authors: Joshua Adan Valdez, Shawn Gallaher

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Global climate change has impacted atmospheric temperatures contributing to rising sea levels, decreasing sea ice, and increased freshening of high latitude oceans. This freshening has contributed to increased stratification inhibiting local mixing and nutrient transport, modifying regional circulations in polar oceans. In recent years, the Western Arctic has seen an increase in freshwater volume at an average rate of 397+-116km3/year across the Beaufort Gyre. The majority of the freshwater volume resides in the Beaufort Gyre surface lens driven by anticyclonic wind forcing, sea ice melt, and Arctic river runoff, and is typically defined as water fresher than 34.8. The near-isothermal nature of Arctic seawater and non-linearities in the equation of state for near-freezing waters result in a salinity-driven pycnocline as opposed to the temperature-driven density structure seen in the lower latitudes. In this study, we investigate the relationship between freshwater content and dynamic ocean topography (DOT). In situ measurements of freshwater content are useful in providing information on the freshening rate of the Beaufort Gyre; however, their collection is costly and time-consuming. Utilizing NASA’s ICESat-2’s DOT remote sensing capabilities and Air Expendable CTD (AXCTD) data from the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys (SIZRS), a linear regression model between DOT and freshwater content is determined along the 150° west meridian. Freshwater content is calculated by integrating the volume of water between the surface and a depth with a reference salinity of ~34.8. Using this model, we compare interannual variability in freshwater content within the gyre, which could provide a future predictive capability of freshwater volume changes in the Beaufort-Chukchi Sea using non-in situ methods. Successful employment of the ICESat-2’s DOT approximation of freshwater content could potentially demonstrate the value of remote sensing tools to reduce reliance on field deployment platforms to characterize physical ocean properties.

Keywords: Cryosphere, remote sensing, Arctic oceanography, climate modeling, Ekman transport

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Zsuzsanna Schnell, Francesca Ervas

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Background: Our study aims to clarify how language fosters further cognitive development and how we eventually arrive at the complex human specific skill of pragmatic competence and reveal what levels of mentalization and theory of mind are in place before language. Method: Our experimental pragmatic investigation maps the interaction of mentalization and pragmatic competence. We map the different levels of mentalization that empower different levels of pragmatic meaning construction and evaluate the results with statistical analysis (MannWhitney and ANOVA). Analyzing the comprehension of literal and non-compositional (figurative) utterances, we apply linguistic trials, among them metaphor-, irony-, irony with surface cue-, humor- and the recognition of maxim infringements trial in neurotypical (NT) preschoolers with a coherent and comparative methodology. Results: The findings reveal the relationship and direction of interaction between Language and theory of mind. On the one hand social-cognitive skills enhance, facilitate and provide a basis for language acquisition, and in return linguistic structures (DeVilliers 2000, 2007) provide a framework for further development of mentalizing skills. Conclusions: Findings confirm that this scaffolding becomes a mutually supportive system where language and social cognition develops in interaction. Certain stages in ToM development serve as a precursor of understanding grammatically complex sentences, like embedded phrases which mirror embedded mental states; which, in turn, facilitates the development of pragmatic competence, thus, the social use of language, integrating social, cognitive, linguistic and psychological factors in discourse. Future implications: Our investigation functions as a differential-diagnostic measure, with typically developing results thus serve as a baseline in further empirical research for atypical cases. This enables the study of populations where language and ToM development is disturbed, reveals how language and ToM are acquired and interact, and gives an insight into what this has to do with clinical symptoms. This in turn can reveal the causal link to the syndrome at hand, which can set directions for therapeutic development and training.

Keywords: theory of mind, language development, mentalization, language philosophy, experimental pragmatics

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Authors: Burçin Saltık, Levent Genç

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In this study, it was aimed to determine a route for identification of rice cultivation areas within Thrace and Marmara regions of Turkey using remote sensing and GIS. Landsat 8 (OLI-TIRS) imageries acquired in production season of 2013 with 181/32 Path/Row number were used. Four different seasonal images were generated utilizing original bands and different transformation techniques. All images were classified individually using supervised classification techniques and Land Use Land Cover Maps (LULC) were generated with 8 classes. Areas (ha, %) of each classes were calculated. In addition, district-based rice distribution maps were developed and results of these maps were compared with Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkSTAT; TSI)’s actual rice cultivation area records. Accuracy assessments were conducted, and most accurate map was selected depending on accuracy assessment and coherency with TSI results. Additionally, rice areas on over 4° slope values were considered as mis-classified pixels and they eliminated using slope map and GIS tools. Finally, randomized rice zones were selected to obtain maximum-minimum value ranges of each date (May, June, July, August, September images separately) NDVI, LSWI, and LST images to test whether they may be used for rice area determination via raster calculator tool of ArcGIS. The most accurate classification for rice determination was obtained from seasonal LSWI LULC map, and considering TSI data and accuracy assessment results and mis-classified pixels were eliminated from this map. According to results, 83151.5 ha of rice areas exist within study area. However, this result is higher than TSI records with an area of 12702.3 ha. Use of maximum-minimum range of rice area NDVI, LSWI, and LST was tested in Meric district. It was seen that using the value ranges obtained from July imagery, gave the closest results to TSI records, and the difference was only 206.4 ha. This difference is normal due to relatively low resolution of images. Thus, employment of images with higher spectral, spatial, temporal and radiometric resolutions may provide more reliable results.

Keywords: landsat 8 (OLI-TIRS), LST, LSWI, LULC, NDVI, rice

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Authors: Abram Zoltan

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Over the past hundred years, human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, have released enough carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to dissipate additional heat into the lower atmosphere and affect the global climate. Climate change affects many social and environmental determinants of health: clean air, safe drinking water, and adequate food. Our aim is to draw attention to the effects of climate change on the health and health care system. Improving climate awareness and the knowledge related to climate change's health impacts are essential among medical students and practicing medical doctors. Therefore, in their everyday practice, they also need some assistance and up-to-date knowledge of how climate change can endanger human health and deal with these novel health problems. Our activity, based on the cooperation of more universities, aims to develop new curriculum outlines and learning materials on climate change's health impacts for medical schools. Special attention is intended to pay to the possible preventative measures against these impacts. For all of this, the project plans to create new curriculum outlines and learning materials for medical students, elaborate methodological guidelines and create training materials for medical doctors' postgraduate learning programs. The target groups of the project are medical students, educational staff of medical schools and universities, practicing medical doctors with special attention to the general practitioners and family doctors. We had searched various surveys, domestic and international studies about the effects of climate change and statistical estimation of the possible consequences. The health effects of climate change can be measured only approximately by considering only a fraction of the potential health effects and assuming continued economic growth and health progress. We can estimate that climate change is expected to cause about 250,000 more deaths. We conclude that climate change is one of the most serious problems of the 21st century, affecting all populations. In the short- to medium-term, the health effects of climate change will be determined mainly by human vulnerability. In the longer term, the effects depend increasingly on the extent to which transformational action is taken now to reduce emissions. We can contribute to reducing environmental pollution by raising awareness and by educating the population.

Keywords: climate change, health impacts, medical students, education

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Authors: Dilek Cetin Alisar, Oya Umit Yemisci, Selin Ozen, Seyhan Sozay

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New approaches and treatment modalities are being developed to make patients more functional and independent in stroke rehabilitation. One of these approaches is transcranial direct stimulation therapy (tDCS), which aims to improve the hemiplegic upper limb function of stroke patients. tDCS therapy is not in the routine rehabilitation program; however, the studies about tDCS therapy on stroke rehabilitation was increased in recent years. Evaluate the effect of tDCS treatment on upper extremity motor function in patients with subacute stroke was aimed in our study. 32 stroke patients (16 tDCS group, 16 sham groups) who were hospitalized for rehabilitation in Başkent University Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Clinic between 01.08.2016-20.01-2018 were included in the study. The conventional upper limb rehabilitation program was used for both tDCS and control group patients for 3 weeks, 5 days a week, for 60-120 minutes a day. In addition to the conventional stroke rehabilitation program in the tDAS group, bihemispheric tDCS was administered for 30 minutes daily. Patients were evaluated before treatment and after 1 week of treatment. Functional independence measure self-care score (FIM), Brunnstorm Recovery Stage (BRS), and Fugl-Meyer (FM) upper extremity motor function scale were used. There was no difference in demographic characteristics between the groups. There were no significant differences between BRS and FM scores in two groups, but there was a significant difference FIM score (p=0.05. FIM, BRS, and FM scores are significantly in the tDCS group, when before therapy and after 1 week of therapy, however, no difference is found in the shame group (p < 0,001). When FBS and FM scores were compared, there were statistical significant differences in tDCS group (p < 0,001). In conclusion, this randomized double-blind study showed that bihemispheric tDCS treatment was found to be superior to upper extremity motor and functional enhancement in addition to conventional rehabilitation methods in subacute stroke patients. In order for tDCS therapy to be used routinely in stroke rehabilitation, there is a need for more comprehensive, long-termed, randomized controlled clinical trials in order to find answers to many questions, such as the duration and intensity of treatment.

Keywords: cortical stimulation, motor function, rehabilitation, stroke

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Authors: Ni'mal Baroya, Andrei Ramani, Irma Prasetyowati

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The access to reproduction health services, including with safe and effective contraception were human rights regardless of social stratum and residence. In addition to individual factors, family and contextual factors were also believed to be the cause in the use of contraceptive methods. This study aimed to assess the determinants of long-term contraceptive methods (LTCM) by considering all the factors at either the individual level or contextual level. Thereby, this study could provide basic information for program development of prevalence enhancement of MKJP in East Java. The research, which used cross-sectional design, utilized Riskesdas 2013 data, particularly in East Java Province for further analysis about multilevel modeling of MKJP application. The sample of this study consisted of 20.601 married women who were not in pregnant that were drawn by using probability sampling following the sampling technique of Riskesdas 2013. Variables in this study were including the independent variables at the individual level that consisted of education, age, occupation, access to family planning services (KB), economic status and residence. As independent variables in district level were the Human Development Index (HDI, henceforth as IPM) in each districts of East Java Province, the ratio of field officers, the ratio of midwives, the ratio of community health centers and the ratio of doctors. As for the dependent variable was the use of Long-Term Contraceptive Method (LTCM or MKJP). The data were analyzed by using chi-square test and Pearson product moment correlation. The multivariable analysis was using multilevel logistic regression with 95% of Confidence Interval (CI) at the significance level of p < 0.05 and 80% of strength test. The results showed a low CPR LTCM was concentrated in districts in Madura Island and the north coast. The women which were 25 to 35 or more than 35 years old, at least high school education, working, and middle-class social status were more likely to use LTCM or MKJP. The IPM and low PLKB ratio had implications for poor CPR LTCM / MKJP.

Keywords: multilevel, long-term contraceptive methods, east java, contextual factor

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Authors: Larissa Pliska, Isabel Neitzel, Michael Buschermöhle, Olga Kunina-Habenicht, Ute Ritterfeld

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Visual preferences, which can be assessed using eye tracking technologies, are considered one of the defining hallmarks of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Specifically, children with ASD show a decreased preference for social images rather than geometric images compared to typically developed (TD) children. Such differences are already prevalent at a very early age and indicate the severity of the disorder: toddlers with ASD who preferred geometric images when confronted with social and geometric images showed higher ASD symptom severity than toddlers with ASD who showed higher social attention. Furthermore, the complexity of social pictures (one child playing vs. two children playing together) as well as the mode of stimulus presentation (video or image), are not decisive for the marker. The average age of diagnosis for ASD in Germany is 6.5 years, and visual preference data on this age group is missing. In the present study, we therefore investigated whether visual preferences persist into school age. We examined the visual preferences of 16 boys aged 6 to 11 with ASD and unimpaired cognition as well as TD children (1:1 matching based on children's age and the parent's level of education) within an experimental setting. Different stimulus presentation formats (images vs. videos) and different levels of stimulus complexity were included. Children with and without ASD received pairs of social and non-social images and video stimuli on a screen while eye movements (i.e., eye position and gaze direction) were recorded. For this specific use case, KIZMO GmbH developed a customized, native iOS app (KIZMO Face-Analyzer) for use on iPads. Neither the format of stimulus presentation nor the complexity of the social images had a significant effect on the visual preference of children with and without ASD in this study. Despite the tendency for a difference between the groups for the video stimuli, there were no significant differences. Overall, no statistical differences in visual preference occurred between boys with and without ASD, suggesting that gaze preference in these groups is similar at primary school age. One limitation is that the children with ASD were already receiving Autism-specific intervention. The potential of a visual preference task as an indicator of ASD can be emphasized. The article discusses the clinical relevance of this marker in elementary school children.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, eye tracking, hallmark, visual preference

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Authors: Amanda T. Badaró, Douglas F. Barbin, Sofia T. Garcia, Maria Teresa P. S. Clerici, Amanda R. Ferreira

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Food fortification is the intentional addition of a nutrient in a food matrix and has been widely used to overcome the lack of nutrients in the diet or increasing the nutritional value of food. Fortified food must meet the demand of the population, taking into account their habits and risks that these foods may cause. Wheat and its by-products, such as semolina, has been strongly indicated to be used as a food vehicle since it is widely consumed and used in the production of other foods. These products have been strategically used to add some nutrients, such as fibers. Methods of analysis and quantification of these kinds of components are destructive and require lengthy sample preparation and analysis. Therefore, the industry has searched for faster and less invasive methods, such as Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (NIR). NIR is a rapid and cost-effective method, however, it is based on indirect measurements, yielding high amount of data. Therefore, NIR spectroscopy requires calibration with mathematical and statistical tools (Chemometrics) to extract analytical information from the corresponding spectra, as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). PCA is well suited for NIR, once it can handle many spectra at a time and be used for non-supervised classification. Advantages of the PCA, which is also a data reduction technique, is that it reduces the data spectra to a smaller number of latent variables for further interpretation. On the other hand, LDA is a supervised method that searches the Canonical Variables (CV) with the maximum separation among different categories. In LDA, the first CV is the direction of maximum ratio between inter and intra-class variances. The present work used a portable infrared spectrometer (NIR) for identification and classification of pure and fiber-fortified semolina samples. The fiber was added to semolina in two different concentrations, and after the spectra acquisition, the data was used for PCA and LDA to identify and discriminate the samples. The results showed that NIR spectroscopy associate to PCA was very effective in identifying pure and fiber-fortified semolina. Additionally, the classification range of the samples using LDA was between 78.3% and 95% for calibration and 75% and 95% for cross-validation. Thus, after the multivariate analysis such as PCA and LDA, it was possible to verify that NIR associated to chemometric methods is able to identify and classify the different samples in a fast and non-destructive way.

Keywords: Chemometrics, fiber, linear discriminant analysis, near-infrared spectroscopy, principal component analysis, semolina

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Authors: Živilė Jurgelėnė, Vitalijus Karabanovas, Augustas Morkvėnas, Reda Dzingelevičienė, Nerijus Dzingelevičius, Saulius Raugelė, Boguslaw Buszewski

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The short- and long-term effects of COVID-19 antiviral drug molnupiravir and micro/nanoplastics on the early development of Salmo trutta were investigated using accumulation and exposure studies. Salmo trutta were used as standardized test organisms in toxicity studies of COVID-19 waste contaminants. The 2D/3D imaging was performed using confocal fluorescence spectral imaging microscopy to assess the uptake, bioaccumulation, and distribution of molnupiravir and micro/nanoplastics complex in live fish. Our study results demonstrated that molnupiravir may interact with a micro/nanoplastics and modify their spectroscopic parameters and toxicity to S. trutta embryos and larvae. The 0.2 µm size microplastics at a concentration of 10 mg/L were found to be stable in aqueous media than 0.02 µm, and 2 µm sizes polymeric particles. This study demonstrated that polymeric particles can adsorb molnupiravir that are present in mixtures and modify the accumulation of molnupiravir in Salmo trutta embryos and larvae. In addition, 2D/3D confocal fluorescence imaging showed that the single polymeric particle hardly accumulates and couldn't penetrate outer tissues of the tested organism. However, co-exposure micro/nanoplastics and molnupiravir could significantly enhance the polymeric particles capability of accumulating on surface tissues and penetrating surface tissue of fish in early development. Exposure to molnupiravir at 2 g/L concentration and co-exposure to micro/nanoplastics and molnupiravir did not bring about survival changes in in the early stages of Salmo trutta development, but we observed the reduction in heart rate and decrease in gill ventilation. The statistical analysis confirmed that micro/nanoplastics used in combination with molnupiravir enhance the toxicity of the latter micro/nanoplastics to embryos and larvae. This research has received funding from the European Regional Development Fund (project No 13.1.1-LMT-K-718-05-0014) under a grant agreement with the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT), and it was funded as part of the European Union’s measure in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: fish, micro/nanoplastics, molnupiravir, toxicity

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Authors: Sungpil Ha, Ju Yong Kang, Sangbaek Park, Seung-Ju Lee, Soo-Won Chae

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The growing number of obese patients in aging societies has led to an increase in the number of patients with knee medial osteoarthritis (OA). Artificial joint insertion is the most common treatment for knee medial OA. Surgery is effective for patients with serious arthritic symptoms, but it is costly and dangerous. It is also inappropriate way to prevent a disease as an early stage. Therefore Non-operative treatments such as toe-in gait are proposed recently. Toe-in gait is one of non-surgical interventions, which restrain the progression of arthritis and relieves pain by reducing knee adduction moment (KAM) to facilitate lateral distribution of load on to knee medial cartilage. Numerous studies have measured KAM in various foot progression angle (FPA), and KAM data could be obtained by motion analysis. However, variations in stress at knee cartilage could not be directly observed or evaluated by these experiments of measuring KAM. Therefore, this study applied motion analysis to major gait points (1st peak, mid –stance, 2nd peak) with regard to FPA, and to evaluate the effects of FPA on the human lower extremity, the finite element (FE) method was employed. Three types of gait analysis (toe-in, toe-out, baseline gait) were performed with markers placed at the lower extremity. Ground reaction forces (GRF) were obtained by the force plates. The forces associated with the major muscles were computed using GRF and marker trajectory data. MRI data provided by the Visible Human Project were used to develop a human lower extremity FE model. FE analyses for three types of gait simulations were performed based on the calculated muscle force and GRF. We observed the maximum stress point during toe-in gait was lower than the other types, by comparing the results of FE analyses at the 1st peak across gait types. This is the same as the trend exhibited by KAM, measured through motion analysis in other papers. This indicates that the progression of knee medial OA could be suppressed by adopting toe-in gait. This study integrated motion analysis with FE analysis. One advantage of this method is that re-modeling is not required even with changes in posture. Therefore another type of gait simulation or various motions of lower extremity can be easily analyzed using this method.

Keywords: finite element analysis, gait analysis, human model, motion capture

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Authors: Puran Prasad Adhikari

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Considering the fact that when we are able to communicate science and economics effectively to broader nonprofessional audiences, it promotes a great understanding of its wider relevance to society and encourages more informed and confident decision-making at all levels, from the government to communities to individuals. The study has been conducted. This study is aimed to examine the understanding of the general public of economics and the basic sciences functioning in our surroundings in our day-to-day life. Data was gathered through historical documents related to science communication and through interviews with the public. The statistical result shows that there is a great lack of knowledge in the general public about the basic sciences and how economics impacts their life daily. The difficulties faced by the public include the view that these things can only be understood by professionals and it is beyond their capacity to grasp these concepts, the use of technical words and jargon by the professionals, and the lack of the medium to understand even if they want to learn it. The result further indicates that the lack of this basic knowledge also leads to bad decision-making, which causes frustration and anxiety. The result shows the great correlation between the confidence level of a person and the knowledge of basic science and economics. The factor behind this was the right decision-making capacity of the individual, which boosts the happy hormones of the individual. So indirectly, we found the correlation between mental health and the understanding of science and economics. The public wants to have a basic understanding and concepts of these topics, but they complain that there is no effective medium through which they can gain the understanding; the medium which is available is full of jargon and technical terms directed to professional and highly educated which they consider is beyond their reach. So, communicating the basic concepts to the general public is of great importance in the 21st century for the overall progress of society. The professional one can make this possible by considering the level of public understanding and making the communication and the programs comprehensible to the layman. Various means can be used to make this successful and effective, e.g., cartoon guide books, Q&A with the layman, animations use, and daily life examples. This study’s implication will help educators of high-level institutions and policymakers improve general public [layman] access to comprehensible knowledge.

Keywords: layman, comprehensible, decision making, frustration, confidence

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Authors: Menna Ewida, Dalal Abou El-Ella, Dina Lasheen, Huessin El-Subbagh

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Introduction: Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor receptor (VEGF) is a signal protein produced by cells that stimulates vasculogenesis to create new blood vessels. VEGF family binds to three trans-membrane tyrosine kinase receptors,Dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) is an enzyme of crucial importance in medicinal chemistry. DHFR catalyzes the reduction 7,8 dihydro-folate to tetrahydrofolate and intimately couples with thymidylate synthase which is a pivotal enzyme that catalysis the reductive methylation of deoxyuridine monophosphate (dUMP) to deoxythymidine monophosphate (dTMP) utilizing N5,N10-methylene tetrahydrofolate as a cofactor which functions as the source of the methyl group. Purpose: Novel substituted Thiazole agents were designed as DHFR and VEGF-TK inhibitors with increased synergistic activity and decreased side effects. Methods: Five series of compounds were designed with a rational that mimic the pharmacophoric features present in the reported active compounds that target DHFR & VEGFR. These molecules were docked against Methotrexate & Sorafenib as controls. An in silico ADMET study was also performed to validate the bioavailability of the newly designed compounds. The in silico molecular docking & ADMET study were also applied to the non-classical antifolates for comparison. The interaction energy comparable to that of MTX for DHFRI and Sorafenib for VEGF-TKI activity were recorded. Results: Compound 5 exhibited the highest interaction energy when docked against Sorafenib, While Compound 9 showed the highest interaction energy when docked against MTX with the perfect binding mode. Comparable results were also obtained for the ADMET study. Most of the compounds showed absorption within (95-99) zone which varies according to the type of substituents. Conclusions: The Substituted Thiazole Analogues could be a suitable template for antitumor drugs that possess enhanced bioavailability and act as DHFR and VEGF-TK inhibitors.

Keywords: anti-tumor agents, DHFR, drug design, molecular modeling, VEGFR-TKIs

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Authors: Ubon Asuquo Essien, Okwudili Bismark Ibeagwa, Daberechi Peace Ubabuko

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The Broiler Poultry subsector is dominated by small scale production with low aggregate output. The high cost of inputs currently experienced in Nigeria tends to aggravate the situation; hence many broiler farmers struggle to break-even. This study was designed to examine income and input factors in small scale deep liter broiler production in Imo state, Nigeria. Specifically, the study examined; socio-economic characteristics of small scale deep liter broiler producing Poultry farmers; estimate cost and returns of broiler production in the area; analyze input factors in broiler production in the area and examined marketability, age and profitability of the enterprise. A multi-stage sampling technique was adopted in selecting 60 small scale broiler farmers who use deep liter system from 6 communities through the use of structured questionnaire. The socioeconomic characteristics of the broiler farmers and the profitability/ marketability age of the birds were described using descriptive statistical tools such as frequencies, means and percentages. Gross margin analysis was used to analyze the cost and returns to broiler production, while Cobb Douglas production function was employed to analyze input factors in broiler production. The result of the study revealed that the cost of feed (P<0.1), deep liter material (P<0.05) and medication (P<0.05) had a significant positive relationship with the gross return of broiler farmers in the study area, while cost of labour, fuel and day old chicks were not significant. Furthermore, Gross profit margin of the farmers who market their broiler at the 8th week of rearing was 80.7%; and 78.7% and 60.8% for farmers who market at the 10th week and 12th week of rearing, respectively. The business is, therefore, profitable but at varying degree. Government and Development partners should make deliberate efforts to curb the current rise in the prices of poultry feeds, drugs and timber materials used as bedding so as to widen the profit margin and encourage more farmers to go into the business. The farmers equally need more technical assistance from extension agents with regards to timely and profitable marketing.

Keywords: broilers, factor analysis, income, small scale

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Authors: Hsueh-Hsing Lu, Thi-Cuc Le, Tung-Sheng Tsai, Chuen-Jinn Tsai

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This study designed and tested a novel wet electrostatic precipitators (WEP) system featuring a Pulse-Air-Jet-Assisted Water Flow (PJWF) to shorten water cleaning time, reduce water usage, and maintain high particle removal efficiency. The PJWF injected cleaning water tangentially at the cylinder wall, rapidly enhancing the momentum of the water flow for efficient dust cake removal. Each PJWF cycle uses approximately 4.8 liters of cleaning water in 18 seconds. Comprehensive laboratory tests were conducted using a single-tube WEP prototype within a flow rate range of 3.0 to 6.0 cubic meters per minute(CMM), operating voltages between -35 to -55 kV, and high-frequency power supply. The prototype, consisting of 72 sets of double-spike rigid discharge electrodes, demonstrated that with the PJWF, -35 kV, and 3.0 CMM, the PM2.5 collection efficiency remained as high as the initial value of 88.02±0.92% after loading with Al2O3 particles at 35.75± 2.54 mg/Nm3 for 20-hr continuous operation. In contrast, without the PJWF, the PM2.5 collection efficiency drastically dropped from 87.4% to 53.5%. Theoretical modeling closely matched experimental results, confirming the robustness of the system's design and its scalability for larger industrial applications. Future research will focus on optimizing the PJWF system, exploring its performance with various particulate matter, and ensuring long-term operational stability and reliability under diverse environmental conditions. Recently, this WEP was combined with a preceding CT (cooling tower) and a HWS (honeycomb wet scrubber) and pilot-tested (40 CMM) to remove SO2 and PM2.5 emissions in a sintering plant of an integrated steel making plant. Pilot-test results showed that the removal efficiencies for SO2 and PM2.5 emissions are as high as 99.7 and 99.3 %, respectively, with ultralow emitted concentrations of 0.3 ppm and 0.07 mg/m3, respectively, while the white smoke is also eliminated at the same time. These new technologies are being used in the industry and the application in different fields is expected to be expanded to reduce air pollutant emissions substantially for a better ambient air quality.

Keywords: wet electrostatic precipitator, pulse-air-jet-assisted water flow, particle removal efficiency, air pollution control

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Authors: Rigers Dodaj

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Nowadays, the environment is a critical goal for civil engineers, human activity, construction projects, economic growth, and whole national development. Regarding the development of Albania's economy, people's living standards are increasing, and the requirements for the living environment are also increasing. Under these circumstances, environmental protection and sustainability this is the critical issue. The rising industrialization, urbanization, and energy demand affect the environment by emission of carbon dioxide gas (CO2), a significant parameter known to impact air pollution directly. Consequently, many governments and international organizations conducted policies and regulations to address environmental degradation in the pursuit of economic development, for instance in Albania, the CO2 emission calculated in metric tons per capita has increased by 23% in the last 20 years. This paper analyzes the importance of civil engineering and economic growth in the sustainability of the environment focusing on CO2 emission. The analyzed data are time series 2001 - 2020 (with annual frequency), based on official publications of the World Bank. The statistical approach with vector error correction model and time series forecasting model are used to perform the parameter’s estimations and long-run equilibrium. The research in this paper adds a new perspective to the evaluation of a sustainable environment in the context of carbon emission reduction. Also, it provides reference and technical support for the government toward green and sustainable environmental policies. In the context of low-carbon development, effectively improving carbon emission efficiency is an inevitable requirement for achieving sustainable economic and environmental protection. Also, the study reveals that civil engineering development projects impact greatly the environment in the long run, especially in areas of flooding, noise pollution, water pollution, erosion, ecological disorder, natural hazards, etc. The potential for reducing industrial carbon emissions in recent years indicates that reduction is becoming more difficult, it needs another economic growth policy and more civil engineering development, by improving the level of industrialization and promoting technological innovation in industrial low-carbonization.

Keywords: CO₂ emission, civil engineering, economic growth, environmental sustainability

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Authors: M. Mirmohammadi, S. Taghdisi, F. Anali

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Gossypol is a yellow anti-nutritional compound found in the cotton plant. This substance exists in the cottonseed and other parts of the cotton plant, such as bark, leaves, and stems. Chemically, gossypol is a very active polyphenolic aldehyde compound, and due to this polyphenolic structure, it has antioxidant and therapeutic properties. On the other hand, this compound, especially in free form, has many toxic effects, that its excessive consumption can be very dangerous for humans and animals. In this study, gossypol was extracted as a derivative compound of gossypol acetic acid from cottonseed using the n-hexane solvent with an efficiency of 0.84 ± 0.04, which compared to the Gossypol extracted from cottonseed oil with the same method (cold press) showed a significant difference with its efficiency of 1.14 ± 0.06. Therefore, it can be suggested to use cottonseed oil to extract this valuable compound. In the other part of this research, cottonseed extracts and cotton bolls extracts were obtained by two methods of soaking and Soxhlet with hydroalcoholic solvent taken with a ratio of (25:75), then by using extracts and corn starch powder, four herbal medicine code was created and after receiving the code of ethics (IR.SSU.REC.1398.136) the therapeutic effect of each one on the Cutaneous leishmaniasis resistant to drugs (caused by the leishmaniasis parasite) was investigated in real patients and its results was compared with the common drug glucantime (local ampoule) (n = 36). Statistical studies showed that the use of herbal medicines prepared with cottonseed extract and cotton bolls extract has a significant positive effect on the treatment of the disease’s wounds (p-value > 0.05) compared to the control group (only ethanol). Also, by comparing the average diameter of the wounds after a two-month treatment period, no significant difference was found between the use of ointment containing extracts and local glucantime ampoules (p-value < 0.05). Bolls extract extracted with the Soxhlet method showed the best therapeutic effects, although there was no significant difference between them (p-value < 0.05). Therefore, there is acceptable reliability to recommend this medicine for the treatment of Cutaneous leishmaniasis resistant to drugs without the side effects of the chemical drug glucantime and the pain of injecting the ampoule.

Keywords: cottonseed oil, gossypol, cotton boll, cutaneous leishmaniasis

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Authors: Luz Hurtado, Rodrigo Rojas, Jaime Romero, Christopher Concha

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The culture of the marine fish red cusk eel Genypterus chilensis is currently considered a priority for Chilean aquaculture which is a Chilean native species of high gastronomic demand and market value. The microbiota was analyzed in terms of diversity and structure using massive Illumina sequencing. The analysis of alpha diversity was performed in samples of G. chilensis larvae of 6, 18 and 32 dph (days post-hatching) and it was observed that there were significant differences (P = 0.05) between the days of culture for the Chao1 index, being the larvae of 18 dph the one with the highest index followed by the larvae of 6 dph, The lowest value for this index was presented in larvae of 32 dph. There were no significant differences in larvae between the days of culture for the Shannon (P=0.0857) and Simpson (P=0.0714) indices. In general, the larvae of G. chilensis have high rates of diversity. When analyzing the beta diversity, a differentiation between the bacterial communities is observed depending on the day of the culture of the larvae. Considering the PCoA elaborated from the unweighted UniFrac statistic, the explained variance was 46.2% (PC1 29.2% and PC2 17.0%) and in the case of the PCoA elaborated with the weighted UniFrac statistic; the explained variance was 65.5% (PC1 41.8% and PC2 23.7%) these differences were significant based on the Permanova statistical analysis (P= 0.002 and 0.037 respectively). When analyzing the taxonomic composition of the microbiota of the larvae in the different days of culture it was observed that at the phyla level the most abundant in the larvae of 6 dph were Proteobacteria (57%) Verrucomicrobia (24%) and Firmicutes (14%), for the larvae of 18 dph the predominant phyla were Proteobacteria (90%), Dependientiae (5%), Actinobacteria (2%) and Plactomyces (2%), for the larvae of 32 dph the phyla that presented the highest relative abundance were Proteobacteria (57%), Firmicutes (29%), Verrucomicrobia (5%) and Actinobacteria (5%), when comparing the larvae between the days it was observed that the phylum Proteobacteria was the most abundant in the samples of larvae of 6, 18 and 32 dph being the larvae of 18 dph those that present the highest relative abundance, the larvae of 6 dph were those that presented the highest relative abundance for the phylum Verrucomicrobia and in the larvae of 32 dph was observed greater abundance of the phylum Firmicutes compared to the other days of larval culture. At the level of genera, those with the highest relative abundance in larvae of 6 dph were Rubritalea (30%), Psychrobacter (28%), staphylococcus (17%) and Ralstonia (10%), for the larvae of 18 dph the genera with the highest abundance were Psychrobacter (47%), Litoreibacter (13%), Nautella (9%) and Cohesibacter (8%), for the larvae of 32 dph the most abundant genera were Alloiococcus (25%), Dialister (14%), Neptunomonas (13%) and Piscirickettsia (11%). When observing the taxonomic composition of the larvae between the days of larval culture, it is observed that there are differences between them.

Keywords: microbiota, diversity, G. Chilensis, larvae

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Authors: Priyanka Agrawal, Janou Koskamp, Amir Raoof, Mariette Wolthers

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Calcite is the main mineral found in carbonate rocks, which form significant hydrocarbon reservoirs and subsurface repositories for CO2 sequestration. The injected CO2 mixes with the reservoir fluid and disturbs the geochemical equilibrium, triggering calcite dissolution. Different combinations of fluid chemistry and injection rate may therefore result in different evolution of porosity, permeability and dissolution patterns. To model the changes in porosity and permeability Kozeny-Carman equation K∝〖(∅)〗^n is used, where K is permeability and ∅ is porosity. The value of n is mostly based on experimental data or pore network models. In pore network models, this derivation is based on accuracy of relation used for conductivity and pore volume change. In fact, at a single pore scale, this relationship is the result of the pore shape development due to dissolution. We have prepared a new reactive transport model for a single pore which simulates the complex chemical reaction of carbonic-acid induced calcite dissolution and subsequent pore-geometry evolution at a single pore scale. We use COMSOL Multiphysics package 5.3 for the simulation. COMSOL utilizes the arbitary-Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) method for the free-moving domain boundary. We examined the effect of flow rate on the evolution of single pore shape profiles due to calcite dissolution. We used three flow rates to cover diffusion dominated and advection-dominated transport regimes. The fluid in diffusion dominated flow (Pe number 0.037 and 0.37) becomes less reactive along the pore length and thus produced non-uniform pore shapes. However, for the advection-dominated flow (Pe number 3.75), the fast velocity of the fluid keeps the fluid relatively more reactive towards the end of the pore length, thus yielding uniform pore shape. Different pore shapes in terms of inlet opening vs overall pore opening will have an impact on the relation between changing volumes and conductivity. We have related the shape of pore with the Pe number which controls the transport regimes. For every Pe number, we have derived the relation between conductivity and porosity. These relations will be used in the pore network model to get the porosity and permeability variation.

Keywords: single pore, reactive transport, calcite system, moving boundary

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Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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In biomedical researches and randomized clinical trials, the most commonly interested outcomes are time-to-event so-called survival data. The importance of robust models in this context is to compare the effect of randomly controlled experimental groups that have a sense of causality. Causal estimation is the scientific concept of comparing the pragmatic effect of treatments conditional to the given covariates rather than assessing the simple association of response and predictors. Hence, the causal effect based semiparametric transformation model was proposed to estimate the effect of treatment with the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Due to its high flexibility and robustness, the semiparametric transformation model which shall be applied in this paper has been given much more attention for estimation of a causal effect in modeling left-truncated and right censored survival data. Despite its wide applications and popularity in estimating unknown parameters, the maximum likelihood estimation technique is quite complex and burdensome in estimating unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function in the presence of possibly time-varying covariates. Thus, to ease the complexity we proposed the modified estimating equations. After intuitive estimation procedures, the consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators were derived and the characteristics of the estimators in the finite sample performance of the proposed model were illustrated via simulation studies and Stanford heart transplant real data example. To sum up the study, the bias of covariates was adjusted via estimating the density function for truncation variable which was also incorporated in the model as a covariate in order to relax the independence assumption of failure time and truncation time. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm was described for the estimation of iterative unknown parameters and unspecified transformation function. In addition, the causal effect was derived by the ratio of the cumulative hazard function of active and passive experiments after adjusting for bias raised in the model due to the truncation variable.

Keywords: causal estimation, EM algorithm, semiparametric transformation models, time-to-event outcomes, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Muhammad Asif Syed, Mirza Amir Baig

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Background: Pakistan is one of the two remaining polio-endemic countries, posing a significant public health challenge for global polio eradication due to failure to interrupt polio transmission. Country specific seroprevalence studies help in the evaluation of immunization program performance, the susceptibility of population against polio virus and identification of existing level of immunity with factors that affect seroconversion of the oral polio vaccine (OPV). The objective of the study was to find out factors associated with seroconversion of the OPV among children 6-59 months in Pakistan. Methods: A Hospital based cross-sectional serosurvey was undertaken in May-June 2015 at District Mirpurkhas, Sindh-Pakistan. Total 180 children aged 6–59 months were selected by using systematic random sampling from Muhammad Medical College Hospital, Mirpurkhas. Demographic, vaccination history and risk factors information were collected from the parents/guardian. Blood sample was collected and tested for the detection of poliovirus IgG antibodies by using ELISA Kit. The IgG titer <10 IU/ml, 50 to <150 IU/ml and >150 IU/ml was defined as negative, weak positive and positive immunity respectively. Pearson Chi-square test was used to determine the difference in seroprevalence in univariate analysis. Results: A total of 180 subjects were enrolled mean age was 23 months (7 -59 months). Off these 160 (89%) children were well and 18 (10%) partially protected against polio virus. Two (1.1%) children had no protection against polio virus as they had <10 IU/ml poliovirus IgG antibodies titer. Both negative cases belong from the female gender, age group 12-23 months, urban area and BMI <50 percentile. There was a difference between normal and the wasting children; it did attain statistical significance (χ2= 35.5, p=0.00). The difference in seroconversion was also observed in relation to the gender (χ2=6.23, p=0.04), duration of breast feeding (χ2=18.6, p=0.04), history of diarrheal disease before polio vaccine administration (χ2=7.7, p=0.02), and stunting (χ2= 114, p=0.00). Conclusion: This study demonstrated that near 90% children achieve seroconversion of OPV and well protected against polio virus. There is an urgent need to focus on factors like duration of breast feeding, diarrheal diseases and malnutrition (acute and chronic) among the children as an immunization strategy.

Keywords: seroconversion, oral polio vaccine, Polio, Pakistan

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Anthropometric obesity indices such as waist circumference (WC), indices derived from anthropometric measurements such as waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and indices created from body fat mass composition such as trunk-to-leg fat ratio (TLFR) are commonly used for the evaluation of mild or severe forms of obesity. Their clinical utilities are being compared using body mass index (BMI) percentiles to classify obesity groups. The best of them is still being investigated to make a clear-cut discrimination between healthy normal individuals (N-BMI) and overweight or obese (OB) or morbid obese patients. The aim of this study is to derive a new index, which best suits the purpose for the discrimination of children with N-BMI from OB children. A total of eighty-three children participated in the study. Two groups were constituted. The first group comprised 42 children with N-BMI, and the second group was composed of 41 OB children, whose age- and sex- adjusted BMI percentile values vary between 95 and 99. The corresponding values for the first group were between 15 and 85. This classification was based upon the tables created by World Health Organization. The institutional ethics committee approved the study protocol. Informed consent forms were filled by the parents of the participants. Anthropometric measurements were taken and recorded following a detailed physical examination. Within this context, weight, height (Ht), WC, hip C (HC), neck C (NC) values were taken. Body mass index, WHR, (WC+HC)/2, WC/Ht, (WC/HC)/Ht, WC*NC were calculated. Bioelectrical impedance analysis was performed to obtain body’s fat compartments in terms of total fat, trunk fat, leg fat, arm fat masses. Trunk-to-leg fat ratio, trunk-to-appendicular fat ratio (TAFR), (trunk fat+leg fat)/2 ((TF+LF)/2) were calculated. Fat mass index (FMI) and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment-II (D2I) index values were calculated. Statistical analysis of the data was performed. Significantly increased values of (WC+HC)/2, (TF+LF)/2, D2I, and FMI were observed in OB group in comparison with those of N-BMI group. Significant correlations were calculated between BMI and WC, (WC+HC)/2, (TF+LF)/2, TLFR, TAFR, D2I as well as FMI both in N-BMI and OB groups. The same correlations were obtained for WC. (WC+HC)/2 was correlated with TLFR, TAFR, (TF+LF)/2, D2I, and FMI in N-BMI group. In OB group, the correlations were the same except those with TLFR and TAFR. These correlations were not present with WHR. Correlations were observed between TLFR and BMI, WC, (WC+HC)/2, (TF+LF)/2, D2I as well as FMI in N-BMI group. Same correlations were observed also with TAFR. In OB group, correlations between TLFR or TAFR and BMI, WC as well as (WC+HC)/2 were missing. None was noted with WHR. From these findings, it was concluded that (WC+HC)/2, but not WHR, was much more suitable as an anthropometric obesity index. The only correlation valid in both groups was that exists between (WC+HC)/2 and (TF+LF)/2. This index was suggested as a link between anthropometric and fat-based indices.

Keywords: children, hip circumference, obesity, waist circumference

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Authors: Ishaq Kashif, Muhammad Younas, Muhammad Riaz, Mubarak Ali

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Poor feeding management during pre-weaning period is one of the factors resulting in compromised growth of Beetal kids fattened for meat purpose. The main reason for this anomaly may be less milk offered to kids and non-serious efforts for its management. This study was planned to find the most appropriate protein level suiting the age of the weaning while shifting animals to high input feeding system. Total of 42 Beetal male kids having 30 (±10), 60 (±10) and 90 (±10) days of age were selected with 16 in each age group. They were designated as G30, G60 and G90, respectively. The weights of animals were; 8±2 kg (G30), 12±2 kg (G60) and 16±2 kg (G90), respectively. All animals were weaned by introducing the total mix feed gradually and withdrawing the milk during the adjustment period of two weeks. The pelleted starter ration (total mix feed) with three various dietary protein levels designated as R1 (16% CP), R2 (20% CP) and R3 (26% CP) were introduced. The control group was reared on the fodder (Maize). The starter rations were iso-caloric and were offered for six-week duration. All animals were exposed to treatment using two-factor factorial (3×3) plus control treatment arrangement under completely randomized design. The data were collected on average daily feed intake (ADFI), average daily gain (ADG), gain to intake ratio, Klieber ratio (KR), body measurements and blood metabolites of kids. The data was analyzed using aov function of R-software. The statistical analysis showed that starter feed protein levels and age of weaning had significant interaction for ADG (P < 0.001), KR (P < 0.001), ADFI (P < 0.05) and blood urea nitrogen (P < 0.05) while serum creatinine and feed conversion had non-significant interaction. The trend analysis revealed that ADG had significant quadratic interaction (P < 0.05) within protein levels and age of weaning. It was found that animals weaned at 30 or 60 days, on R2 diet had better ADG (46.8 gm/day and 87.06 gm/day, respectively) weaned at 60 days of age. The animals weaned at 90 days had best ADG (127 gm/day) with R1. It is concluded that animal weaned at 30 or 40 days required 20% CP for better growth performance while animal at 90 days showed better performance with 16% CP.

Keywords: average daily gain, starter protein levels, weaning age, gain to intake ratio

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