Search results for: uncertainty quantification

Authors: Lisandy Arinta Suryana, Santi Novani, Utomo Sarjono

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Paradox of business strategic is associated with the contradictory practice. It becomes one of the critical way to survive and win in the dynamic competitive landscape – high level of uncertainty and rapid change in the business environment. Those characteristics are similar with the environment of hijab fashion business, especially in Indonesia. This paper aims to describe the success of paradoxical strategic based on historical data of hijab fashion business which have been validated by qualitative approach. This paper discusses two main aspects of paradoxical strategic such as paradox in human resource management, and logistic center management. Then, the detail effects from each practice are described in term of causal loop diagram. Moreover, the practice of paradoxical strategic depends on leadership that can make a brave and dynamic decision by capturing the main problems and opportunities in their business, and also build commitment to achieve a specific goal.

Keywords: paradox of business strategic, paradoxical strategic, causal loop diagram, sustainable business, hijab fashion business, business strategic

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Authors: Maria Luskova, Maria Hudakova, Katarina Buganova

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Established objective and subjective preconditions for entrepreneurship, forming the business organically related whole, are the necessary condition of successful entrepreneurial activities. Objective preconditions for entrepreneurship are developed by the market economy that should stimulate entrepreneurship by allowing the use of economic opportunities for all those who want to do business in respective field while providing guarantees to all owners and creating a stable business environment for entrepreneurs. Subjective preconditions of entrepreneurship are formed primarily by personal characteristics of the entrepreneur. These are his properties, abilities, skills, physiological, and psychological preconditions which may be inherited, inborn or sequentially developed and obtained during his life on the basis of education and influences of surrounding environment. The paper is dealing with issues of objective and subjective preconditions for entrepreneurship and provides their analysis in view of the current situation in Slovakia. It presents risks of the business environment in Slovakia that the Slovak managers considered the most significant in 2014 and defines the dominant attributes of the entrepreneur in the current business environment in Slovakia.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, innovations, opportunity, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: S. Obregon-Cano, R. Moreno-Rojas, E. Cartea-Gonzalez, A. De Haro-Bailon

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The potential of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for screening the total glucosinolate (t-GSL) content, and also, the aliphatic glucosinolates gluconapin (GNA), progoitrin (PRO) and glucobrassicanapin (GBN) in turnip greens and turnip tops was assessed. This crop is grown for edible leaves and stems for human consumption. The reference values for glucosinolates, as they were obtained by high performance liquid chromatography on the vegetable samples, were regressed against different spectral transformations by modified partial least-squares (MPLS) regression (calibration set of samples n= 350). The resulting models were satisfactory, with calibration coefficient values from 0.72 (GBN) to 0.98 (tGSL). The predictive ability of the equations obtained was tested using a set of samples (n=70) independent of the calibration set. The determination coefficients and prediction errors (SEP) obtained in the external validation were: GNA=0.94 (SEP=3.49); PRO=0.41 (SEP=1.08); GBN=0.55 (SEP=0.60); tGSL=0.96 (SEP=3.28). These results show that the equations developed for total glucosinolates, as well as for gluconapin can be used for screening these compounds in the leaves and stems of this species. In addition, the progoitrin and glucobrassicanapin equations obtained can be used to identify those samples with high, medium and low contents. The calibration equations obtained were accurate enough for a fast, non-destructive and reliable analysis of the content in GNA and tGSL directly from NIR spectra. The equations for PRO and GBN can be employed to identify samples with high, medium and low contents.

Keywords: brassica rapa, glucosinolates, gluconapin, NIRS, turnip greens

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Authors: Youn Young Shim, Ji Hye Kim, Jae Youl Cho, Martin JT Reaney

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Flaxseed (Linumusitatissimum L.) is gaining popularity in the food industry as a superfood due to its health-promoting properties. Linusorbs (LOs, a.k.a. Cyclolinopeptide) are bioactive compounds present in flaxseed exhibiting potential health effects. The study focused on the effects of processing and storage on the stability of flaxseed-derived LOs added to various bakery products. The flaxseed meal fortified gluten-free (GF) bakery bread was prepared, and the changes of LOs during the bread-making process (meal, fortified flour, dough, and bread) and storage (0, 1, 2, and 4 weeks) at different temperatures (−18 °C, 4 °C, and 22−23 °C) were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography-diode array detection. The total oxidative LOs and LO1OB2 were almost kept stable in flaxseed meals at storage temperatures of 22−23 °C, −18 °C, and 4 °C for up to four weeks. Processing steps during GF-bread production resulted in the oxidation of LOs. Interestingly, no LOs were detected in the dough sample; however, LOs appeared when the dough was stored at −18 °C for one week, suggesting that freezing destroyed the sticky structure of the dough and resulted in the release of LOs. The final product, flaxseed meal fortified bread, could be stored for up to four weeks at −18 °C and 4 °C, and for one week at 22−23 °C. All these results suggested that LOs may change during processing and storage and that flaxseed flour-fortified bread should be stored at low temperatures to preserve effective LOs components.

Keywords: linum usitatissimum L., flaxseed, linusorb, stability, gluten-free, peptides, cyclolinopeptide

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Authors: Amokrane Boufares, Elise Provost, Veronique Osswald, Pascal Clain, Anthony Delahaye, Laurence Fournaison, Didier Dalmazzone

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Gas hydrates have long been considered as problematic for flow assurance in natural gas and oil transportation. On the other hand, they are now seen as future promising materials for various applications (i.e. desalination of seawater, natural gas and hydrogen storage, gas sequestration, gas combustion separation and cold storage and transport). Nonetheless, a better understanding of the crystallization mechanism of gas hydrate and of their formation kinetics is still needed for a better comprehension and control of the process. To that purpose, measuring the real-time evolution of the dissolved gas concentration in the aqueous phase during hydrate formation is required. In this work, CO₂ hydrates were formed in a stirred reactor equipped with an Attenuated Total Reflection (ATR) probe coupled to a Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectroscopy analyzer. A method was first developed to continuously measure in-situ the CO₂ concentration in the liquid phase during solubilization, supersaturation, hydrate crystallization and dissociation steps. Thereafter, the measured concentration data were compared with those of equilibrium concentrations. It was observed that the equilibrium is instantly reached in the liquid phase due to the fast consumption of dissolved gas by the hydrate crystallization. Consequently, it was shown that hydrate crystallization kinetics is limited by the gas transfer at the gas-liquid interface. Finally, we noticed that the liquid-hydrate equilibrium during the hydrate crystallization is governed by the temperature of the experiment under the tested conditions.

Keywords: gas hydrate, dissolved gas, crystallization, infrared spectroscopy

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

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In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation, permeability coefficient

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Authors: Mahasa Zahirnia

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The purpose of this paper is to explore new and effective ways of optimizing satellite images using artificial intelligence, and the process of implementing reinforcement learning to enhance the quality of data captured within the image. In our implementation of Bellman's Reinforcement Learning equations, associated state diagrams, and multi-stage image processing, we were able to enhance image quality, detect and define objects. Reinforcement learning is the differentiator in the area of artificial intelligence, and Q-Learning relies on trial and error to achieve its goals. The reward system that is embedded in Q-Learning allows the agent to self-evaluate its performance and decide on the best possible course of action based on the current and future environment. Results show that within a simulated environment, built on the images that are commercially available, the rate of detection was 40-90%. Reinforcement learning through Q-Learning algorithm is not just desired but required design criteria for image optimization and enhancements. The proposed methods presented are a cost effective method of resolving uncertainty of the data because reinforcement learning finds ideal policies to manage the process using a smaller sample of images.

Keywords: Q-learning, image optimization, reinforcement learning, Markov decision process

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Authors: Priya Pawar, Rithika Susan Thomas, Emmanuel Blonkowski

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Due to the solar geometry of Singapore, which lay within the geographical classification of equatorial tropics, there is a great deal of thermal energy transfer to the inside of the buildings. With changing face of economic development of cities like Singapore, more and more buildings are designed to be lightweight using transparent construction materials such as glass. Increased demand for energy efficiency and reduced cooling load demands make it important for building designer and operators to adopt new and non-invasive technologies to achieve building energy efficiency targets. A real time performance evaluation study was undertaken at School of Art Design and Media (SADM), Singapore, to determine the efficiency potential of a new generation solar insulation film. The building has a window to wall ratio (WWR) of 100% and is fitted with high performance (low emissivity) double glazed units. The empirical data collected was then used to calibrate a computerized simulation model to understand the annual energy consumption based on existing conditions (baseline performance). It was found that the correlations of various parameters such as solar irradiance, solar heat flux, and outdoor air-temperatures quantification are significantly important to determine the cooling load during a particular period of testing.

Keywords: solar insulation film, building energy efficiency, tropics, cooling load

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Authors: João Madureira, Ricardo Lagido, Inês Sousa, Fraunhofer Portugal

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Surf is an increasingly popular sport and its performance evaluation is often qualitative. This work aims at using a smartphone to collect and analyze the GPS and inertial sensors data in order to obtain quantitative metrics of the surfing performance. Two approaches are compared for detection of wave rides, computing the number of waves rode in a surfing session, the starting time of each wave and its duration. The first approach is based on computing the velocity from the Global Positioning System (GPS) signal and finding the velocity thresholds that allow identifying the start and end of each wave ride. The second approach adds information from the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) of the smartphone, to the velocity thresholds obtained from the GPS unit, to determine the start and end of each wave ride. The two methods were evaluated using GPS and IMU data from two surfing sessions and validated with similar metrics extracted from video data collected from the beach. The second method, combining GPS and IMU data, was found to be more accurate in determining the number of waves, start time and duration. This paper shows that it is feasible to use smartphones for quantification of performance metrics during surfing. In particular, detection of the waves rode and their duration can be accurately determined using the smartphone GPS and IMU.

Keywords: inertial measurement unit (IMU), global positioning system (GPS), smartphone, surfing performance

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Authors: F. Allag, S. Bouharati, M. Belmahdi, R. Zegadi

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The rapid expansion of deserts in recent decades as a result of human actions combined with climatic changes has highlighted the necessity to understand biological processes in arid environments. Whereas physical processes and the biology of flora and fauna have been relatively well studied in marginally used arid areas, knowledge of desert soil micro-organisms remains fragmentary. The objective of this study is to conduct a diversity analysis of bacterial communities in unvegetated arid soils. Several biological phenomena in hot deserts related to microbial populations and the potential use of micro-organisms for restoring hot desert environments. Dry land ecosystems have a highly heterogeneous distribution of resources, with greater nutrient concentrations and microbial densities occurring in vegetated than in bare soils. In this work, we found it useful to use techniques of artificial intelligence in their treatment especially artificial neural networks (ANN). The use of the ANN model, demonstrate his capability for addressing the complex problems of uncertainty data.

Keywords: desert soil, climatic changes, bacteria, vegetation, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Renata Adriana Labanca, Gabriela Rezende Costa, Nilton de Oliveira Couto e Silva, José Marcos Gontijo Mandarino, Rodrigo Santos Leite, Nilson César Castanheira Guimarães, Roberto Gonçalves Junqueira

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the differences in composition between six brands of conventional soybean and six genetically modified cultivars (GM), all of them from Minas Gerais State, Brazil. We focused on the isoflavones profile and mineral content questioning the substantial equivalence between conventional and GM organisms. The statement of compliance label for conventional grains was verified for the presence of genetic modified genes by real time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We did not detect the presence of the 35S promoter in commercial samples, indicating the absence of transgene insertion. For mineral analysis, we used the method of inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). Isoflavones quantification was performed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The results showed no statistical difference between the conventional and transgenic soybean groups concerning isoflavone content and mineral composition. The concentration of potassium, the main mineral component of soy, was the highest in conventional soybeans compared to that in GM soy, while GM samples presented the highest concentrations of iron.

Keywords: glycine max, genetically modified organism, bioactive compounds, ICP-OES, HPLC

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Authors: Rym Sassi, Franck Fayon, Mohend Chaouche, Emmanuel Veron, Valerie Montouillout

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The chemical phenomena occurring during cement hydration are complex and interdependent, and even after almost two centuries of studies, they are still difficult to solve for complex mixtures combining different hydraulic binders. Powder-XRD has been widely used for characterizing the crystalline phases in both anhydrous and hydrated cement, but only limited information is obtained in the case of strongly disordered and amorphous phases. In contrast, local spectroscopies like solid-state NMR can provide a quantitative description of noncrystalline phases. In this work, the structural modifications occurring during hydration of a fast-setting ternary binder based on white Portland cement, white calcium aluminate cement, and calcium sulfate were investigated using advanced solid-state NMR methods. We particularly focused on the early stage of the hydration up to 28 days, working with samples whose hydration was controlled and stopped. ²⁷Al MQ-MAS as well as {¹H}-²⁷Al and {¹H}-²⁹Si Cross- Polarization MAS NMR techniques were combined to distinguish all of the aluminum and silicon species formed during the hydration. The NMR quantification of the different phases was conducted in parallel with the XRD analyses. The consumption of initial products, as well as the precipitation of hydraulic phases (ettringite, monosulfate, strätlingite, CSH, and CASH), were unambiguously quantified. Finally, the drawing of the consumption and formation of phases was correlated with mechanical strength measurements.

Keywords: cement, hydration, hydrates structure, mechanical strength, NMR

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Authors: Morten Stigaard Laursen, Rasmus Nyholm Jørgensen, Henrik Skov Midtiby, Anders Krogh Mortensen, Sanmohan Baby

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This work contributes a statistical model and simulation framework yielding the best estimate possible for the potential herbicide reduction when using the MoDiCoVi algorithm all the while requiring a efficacy comparable to conventional spraying. In June 2013 a maize field located in Denmark were seeded. The field was divided into parcels which was assigned to one of two main groups: 1) Control, consisting of subgroups of no spray and full dose spraty; 2) MoDiCoVi algorithm subdivided into five different leaf cover thresholds for spray activation. In addition approximately 25% of the parcels were seeded with additional weeds perpendicular to the maize rows. In total 299 parcels were randomly assigned with the 28 different treatment combinations. In the statistical analysis, bootstrapping was used for balancing the number of replicates. The achieved potential herbicide savings was found to be 70% to 95% depending on the initial weed coverage. However additional field trials covering more seasons and locations are needed to verify the generalisation of these results. There is a potential for further herbicide savings as the time interval between the first and second spraying session was not long enough for the weeds to turn yellow, instead they only stagnated in growth.

Keywords: herbicide reduction, macrosprayer, weed crop discrimination, site-specific, sprayer boom

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Authors: Zhenyu Zhang, Hsi-Hsien Wei

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Highway network systems play a vital role in disaster response for disaster-damaged areas. Damaged bridges in such network systems can impede disaster response by disrupting transportation of rescue teams or humanitarian supplies. Therefore, emergency inspection and repair of bridges to quickly collect damage information of bridges and recover the functionality of highway networks is of paramount importance to disaster response. A widely used measure of a network’s capability to recover from disasters is resilience. To enhance highway network resilience, plenty of studies have developed various repair scheduling methods for the prioritization of bridge-repair tasks. These methods assume that repair activities are performed after the damage to a highway network is fully understood via inspection, although inspecting all bridges in a regional highway network may take days, leading to the significant delay in repairing bridges. In reality, emergency repair activities can be commenced as soon as the damage data of some bridges that are crucial to emergency response are obtained. Given that emergency bridge inspection and repair (EBIR) activities are executed simultaneously in the response phase, the real-time interactions between these activities can occur – the blockage of highways due to repair activities can affect inspection routes which in turn have an impact on emergency repair scheduling by providing real-time information on bridge damages. However, the impact of such interactions on the optimal emergency inspection routes (EIR) and emergency repair schedules (ERS) has not been discussed in prior studies. To overcome the aforementioned deficiencies, this study develops a routing and scheduling model for EBIR while accounting for real-time inspection-repair interactions to maximize highway network resilience. A stochastic, time-dependent integer program is proposed for the complex and real-time interacting EBIR problem given multiple inspection and repair teams at locations as set post-disaster. A hybrid genetic algorithm that integrates a heuristic approach into a traditional genetic algorithm to accelerate the evolution process is developed. Computational tests are performed using data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, based on a regional highway network in Sichuan, China, consisting of 168 highway bridges on 36 highways connecting 25 cities/towns. The results show that the simultaneous implementation of bridge inspection and repair activities can significantly improve the highway network resilience. Moreover, the deployment of inspection and repair teams should match each other, and the network resilience will not be improved once the unilateral increase in inspection teams or repair teams exceeds a certain level. This study contributes to both knowledge and practice. First, the developed mathematical model makes it possible for capturing the impact of real-time inspection-repair interactions on inspection routing and repair scheduling and efficiently deriving optimal EIR and ERS on a large and complex highway network. Moreover, this study contributes to the organizational dimension of highway network resilience by providing optimal strategies for highway bridge management. With the decision support tool, disaster managers are able to identify the most critical bridges for disaster management and make decisions on proper inspection and repair strategies to improve highway network resilience.

Keywords: disaster management, emergency bridge inspection and repair, highway network, resilience, uncertainty

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: crack size, fatigue crack propagation, magnesium alloys, probability distribution, specimen thickness

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Authors: Pijush Roy, Vinay Kumar Rai

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The present study highlights the estimation of soil loss and identification of critical area for implementation of best management practice is central to the success of soil conservation programme. The quantification of morphometric and Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) factors using remote sensing and GIS for prioritization of micro-watersheds in Asan River catchment, western Doon valley at foothills of Siwalik ranges in the Dehradun districts of Uttarakhand, India. The watershed has classified as a dendritic pattern with sixth order stream. The area is classified into very high, high, moderately high, medium and low susceptibility zones. High to very high erosion zone exists in the urban area and agricultural land. Average annual soil loss of 64 tons/ha/year has been estimated for the watershed. The optimum management practices proposed for micro-watersheds of Asan River basin are; afforestation, contour bunding suitable sites for water harvesting structure as check dam and soil conservation, agronomical measure and bench terrace.

Keywords: erosion susceptibility zones, morphometric characteristics, prioritization, remote sensing and GIS, universal soil loss equation

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Authors: Olufemi Olupe

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Within linguistics, various approaches have been adopted to the study of language. One of such approaches is the syntax. The syntax is an aspect of the grammar of the language which deals with how words are put together to form phrases and sentences and how such structures are interpreted in language. Ambiguity, which is also germane in this discourse is about the uncertainty of meaning as a result of the possibility of a phrase or sentence being understood and interpreted in more than one way. In the light of the above, this paper attempts a syntactic study of syntactic ambiguities in The English Language, using the Transformational Generative Grammar (TGG) Approach. In doing this, phrases and sentences were raised with each description followed by relevant analysis. Finding in the work reveals that ambiguity cannot always be disambiguated by the means of syntactic analysis alone without recourse to semantic interpretation. The further finding shows that some syntactical ambiguities structures cannot be analysed on two surface structures in spite of the fact that there are more than one deep structures. The paper concludes that in as much as ambiguity remains in language; it will continue to pose a problem of understanding to a second language learner. Users of English as a second language, must, however, make a conscious effort to avoid its usage to achieve effective communication.

Keywords: language, syntax, semantics, morphology, ambiguity

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Authors: Paula Linna

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During the recent years interest in inclusive business has increased. Still, research on inclusive business development is at infancy. This study provides empirical evidence on inclusive business development of mini-grid solution for the rural African communities. This study tests how well the insights of creation theory can explain inclusive business development process which often occurs under uncertainty due to demands for developing new technology, new business model and establishing business in new market. These several uncertain elements of business development impact what kind of business strategies the entrepreneur can practice and what kind of decision making tools to use. In addition, community engagement is essential for the successful operative management of a mini-grid solution. This study advances the understanding of inclusive business development and can be used as the foundation for future work to facilitate the process of new business venture creation at the BOP particularly when developing community-operated entrepreneurship model.

Keywords: creation theory, base of the pyramid (BOP), community-operated entrepreneurship, rural African communities

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Authors: Jeong Woo Kang, MiYoung Baek, Ki-Suk Kim, Kwang-Jick Lee, ByungJae So

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Introduction: A fast, easy and sensitive detection method was developed and validated by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry for the determination of marbofloxacin in pig plasma which was further applied to study the pharmacokinetics of marbofloxacin. Materials and Methods: The plasma sample (500 μL) was mixed with 1.5 ml of 0.1% formic acid in MeCN to precipitate plasma proteins. After shaking for 20 min, The mixture was centrifuged at 5,000 × g for 30 min. It was dried under a nitrogen flow at 50℃. 500 μL aliquot of the sample was injected into the LC-MS/MS system. Chromatographic analysis was carried out mobile phase gradient consisting 0.1% formic acid in D.W. (A) and 0.1% formic acid in MeCN (B) with C18 reverse phase column. Mass spectrometry was performed using the positive ion mode and the selected ion monitoring (MRM). Results and Conclusions: The method validation was performed in the sample matrix. Good linearities (R2>0.999) were observed and the quantified average recoveries of marbofloxacin were 87 - 92% at level of 10 ng g-1 -100 ng g-1. The percent of coefficient of variation (CV) for the described method was less than 10 % over the range of concentrations studied. The limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) were 2 and 5 ng g-1, respectively. This method has also been applied successfully to pharmacokinetic analysis of marbofloxacin after intravenous (IV), intramuscular (IM) and oral administration (PO). The mean peak plasma concentration (Cmax) was 2,597 ng g-1at 0.25 h, 2,587 ng g-1at 0.44 h and 2,355 ng g-1at 1.58 h for IV, IM and PO, respectively. The area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC0–t) was 24.8, 29.0 and 25.2 h μg/mL for IV, IM and PO, respectively. The elimination half-life (T1/2) was 8.6, 13.1 and 9.5 for IV, IM and PO, respectively. Bioavailability (F) of the marbofloxacin in pig was 117 and 101 % for IM and PO, respectively. Based on these result, marbofloxacin does not have any obstacles as therapeutics to develop the oral formulations such as tablets and capsules.

Keywords: marbofloxacin, LC-MS/MS, pharmacokinetics, chromatographic

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Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

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In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

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Authors: Malte Brettel, David Bendig, Michael Keller, Marius Rosenberg

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What are the core competences necessary in order to sustain manufacturing in high-wage countries? Aspiring countries all over the world gain market share in manufacturing and rapidly close the productivity and quality gap that has until now protected some parts of the industry in Europe and the United States from dislocation. However, causal production planning and manufacturing, the basis for productivity and quality, is challenged by the ever-greater need for flexibility and customized products in an uncertain business environment. This article uses a case-study-based approach to assess how production managers in high-wage countries can apply decision-making principals from successful entrepreneurs. 'Effectuation' instead of causal decision making can be applied to handle uncertainty of mass customization, to seek the right partners in alliances and to advance towards virtual production. The findings help managers to use their resources more efficiently and contribute to bridge the gap between production research and entrepreneurship.

Keywords: case studies, decision-making behavior, effectuation, production planning

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Authors: Ashok Kumar, Anjali Sharma

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As cities grow and expand spatially, redevelopment in urban India is beginning to emerge as a new mode of urban expansion sweeping low-income informal settlements. This paper examines the extent and nature of expanding urban frontier before examining implications for the families living in these settlements. Displacement of these families may appear to be an obvious consequence. However, we have conducted ethnographic studies over the past several months in a Delhi slum named Kathputli Colony, Delhi. In depth analysis of the study for this slum appears to present a variegated set of consequences for the residents of informal settlements including loss of livelihoods, dismantling of family ties, and general anxiety arising out of uncertainty about resettlement. Apart from Delhi case study, we also compare and contrast another redevelopment case from Mumbai located at Bhendi Bazar. These examples from the two mega cities of Mumbai and Delhi are analysed to understand and explore expanding urban frontiers and their consequences for informing future public policy.

Keywords: informal settlements, policy, redevelopment, urban

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

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Authors: Irina Canco, Amela Malaj

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It is evident that there exists a relationship between supply chain management and business performance. Surveys have showed that in many cases the manager's beliefs and expectations on supply chain management do not match the reality of the business. In this context, the study of supply chain issues is of particular importance and interest considering specifically the current period. The economic problems of this period, are present in Albania as well. The complexity of the supply chain focuses on order fulfilment. Therefore, in this paper, attention will be paid to the impact of supply chain management on business performance. The objective of the paper is to find a relationship between the good supply chain management and business performance. This research is based on the results of surveys referring to the experience of successful businesses on issues related to sustainable supply chain management and its synchronization with the provision of products and services required by the final customers. This study clearly evidenced the impact of the speed of meeting customer requirements on AMAZONA performance. This was also confirmed mathematically through one of the decision criteria in conditions of uncertainty—Laplace criterion.

Keywords: supply chain management, AMAZONA, business performance, Laplace criteria

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number

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Authors: S. Jain, R. Savalia, V. Saini

Abstract:

A simple, accurate, precise, sensitive and specific RP-HPLC method was developed and validated for simultaneous estimation of Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil in bulk and tablet dosage form. The RP-HPLC method has shown adequate separation for Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil from its degradation products. The separation was achieved on a Phenomenex luna ODS C18 (250mm X 4.6mm i.d., 5μm particle size) with an isocratic mixture of acetonitrile: 50mM phosphate buffer pH 4.0 adjusted with glacial acetic acid in the ratio of 55:45 v/v. The mobile phase at a flow rate of 1.0ml/min, Injection volume 20μl and wavelength of detection was kept at 225nm. The retention time for Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil was 2.451±0.1min and 6.167±0.1min, respectively. The linearity of the proposed method was investigated in the range of 5-50μg/ml and 2-20μg/ml for Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil, respectively. Correlation coefficient was 0.999 and 0.9996 for Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil, respectively. The limit of detection was 0.2847μg/ml and 0.1251μg/ml for Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil, respectively and the limit of quantification was 0.8630μg/ml and 0.3793μg/ml for Metoprolol and Olmesartan, respectively. Proposed methods were validated as per ICH guidelines for linearity, accuracy, precision, specificity and robustness for estimation of Metoprolol Succinate and Olmesartan Medoxomil in commercially available tablet dosage form and results were found to be satisfactory. Thus the developed and validated stability indicating method can be used successfully for marketed formulations.

Keywords: metoprolol succinate, olmesartan medoxomil, RP-HPLC method, validation, ICH

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Αlexios Kotsakis, Stefanos Katsavounis, Dimitra Alexiou

Abstract:

Networks can be utilized to represent project planning problems, using nodes for activities and arcs to indicate precedence relationship between them. For fixed activity duration, a simple algorithm calculates the amount of time required to complete a project, followed by the activities that comprise the critical path. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) generalizes the above model by incorporating uncertainty, allowing activity durations to be random variables, producing nevertheless a relatively crude solution in planning problems. In this paper, based on the findings of the relevant literature, which strongly suggests that a Beta distribution can be employed to model earthmoving activities, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation, to estimate the project completion time distribution and measure the influence of skewness, an element inherent in activities of modern technical projects. We also extract the activity criticality index, with an ultimate goal to produce more accurate planning estimations.

Keywords: beta distribution, PERT, Monte Carlo simulation, skewness, project completion time distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Khavieya Anandhan, Soundarapandian Santhanakrishnan, Vijayaraghavan Laxmanan

Abstract:

In general, measurement of surfaces is carried out by using traditional methods such as contact type stylus instruments. This prevalent approach is challenged by using non-contact instruments such as optical profiler, co-ordinate measuring machine, laser triangulation sensors, machine vision system, etc. Recently, confocal sensor is trying to be used in the surface metrology field. This sensor, such as a confocal sensor, is explored in this study to determine the surface roughness value for various turned surfaces. Turning is a crucial machining process to manufacture products such as grooves, tapered domes, threads, tapers, etc. The roughness value of turned surfaces are in the range of range 0.4-12.5 µm, were taken for analysis. Three instruments were used, namely, perthometer, optical profiler, and confocal sensor. Among these, in fact, a confocal sensor is least explored, despite its good resolution about 5 nm. Thus, such a high-precision sensor was used in this study to explore the possibility of measuring turned surfaces. Further, using this data, measurement uncertainty was also studied.

Keywords: confocal sensor, optical profiler, surface roughness, turned surfaces

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: V. S. S. Kumar, B. Vikram

Abstract:

The development of effective decision support tools that adopted in the construction industry is vital in the world we live in today, since it can lead to substantial cost reduction and efficient resource consumption. Solving the time-cost trade off problems and its related variants is at the heart of scientific research for optimizing construction planning problems. In general, the classical optimization techniques have difficulties in dealing with TCT problems. One of the main reasons of their failure is that they can easily be entrapped in local minima. This paper presents an investigation on the application of meta-heuristic techniques to two particular variants of the time-cost trade of analysis, the time-cost trade off problem (TCT), and time-cost trade off optimization problem (TCO). In first problem, the total project cost should be minimized, and in the second problem, the total project cost and total project duration should be minimized simultaneously. Finally it is expected that, the optimization models developed in this paper will contribute significantly for efficient planning and management of construction project.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, uncertainty, optimization, time cost trade off problems

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Zhongmin Wang, Lin Wei, Hengshan Zhang, Tianhua Chen, Yimin Zhou

Abstract:

The assembly line balancing problems are signficant in mass production systems. In order to deal with the uncertainties that practically exist but barely mentioned in the literature, this paper develops a mathematic model with an optimisation algorithm to solve the assembly line balancing problem with uncertainty operation time. The developed model is able to work with a variable number of workstations under the uncertain environment, aiming to obtain the minimal number of workstation and minimal idle time for each workstation. In particular, the proposed approach first introduces the concept of protection time that closely works with the uncertain operation time. Four dominance rules and the mechanism of determining up and low bounds are subsequently put forward, which serve as the basis for the proposed branch and bound algorithm. Experimental results show that the proposed work verified on a benchmark data set is able to solve the uncertainties efficiently.

Keywords: assembly lines, SALBP-UOT, uncertain operation time, branch and bound algorithm.

Procedia PDF Downloads 150