Search results for: facility data model

Authors: S. F. Wong, W. I. Ho, B. Lin, Q. Huang

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ERP has been used in many enterprises for management, the accuracy of the production forecasting module is vital to the decision making of the enterprise, and the profit is affected directly. Therefore, enhancing the accuracy of the production forecasting module can also increase the efficiency and profitability. To deal with a lot of data, a suitable, reliable and accurate statistics model is necessary. LSSVM and Grey System are two main models to be studied in this paper, and a case study is used to demonstrate how the combination model is effective to the result of forecasting.

Keywords: ERP, grey system, LSSVM, production forecasting

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Authors: O. P. Oladipo, O. A. Falode

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The determination of Recovery Factor is of great importance to the reservoir engineer since it relates reserves to the initial oil in place. Reserves are the producible portion of reservoirs and give an indication of the profitability of a field Development. The core objective of this project is to develop an artificial neural network model using selected reservoir data to predict Recovery Factors (RF) of hydrocarbon reservoirs and compare the model with a couple of the existing correlations. The type of Artificial Neural Network model developed was the Single Layer Feed Forward Network. MATLAB was used as the network simulator and the network was trained using the supervised learning method, Afterwards, the network was tested with input data never seen by the network. The results of the predicted values of the recovery factors of the Artificial Neural Network Model, API Correlation for water drive reservoirs (Sands and Sandstones) and Guthrie and Greenberger Correlation Equation were obtained and compared. It was noted that the coefficient of correlation of the Artificial Neural Network Model was higher than the coefficient of correlations of the other two correlation equations, thus making it a more accurate prediction tool. The Artificial Neural Network, because of its accurate prediction ability is helpful in the correct prediction of hydrocarbon reservoir factors. Artificial Neural Network could be applied in the prediction of other Petroleum Engineering parameters because it is able to recognise complex patterns of data set and establish a relationship between them.

Keywords: recovery factor, reservoir, reserves, artificial neural network, hydrocarbon, MATLAB, API, Guthrie, Greenberger

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Authors: Yoon- Ho Shin, Jin-Seung Choi, Dong-Won Kang, Jeong-Woo Seo, Joo-Hack Lee, Ju-Young Kim, Dae-Hyeok Kim, Seung-Tae Yang, Gye-Rae Tack

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It is difficult to study the effect of various variables on cycle fitting through actual experiment. To overcome such difficulty, the forward dynamics of a musculoskeletal model was applied to cycle fitting in this study. The measured EMG data were compared with the muscle activities of the musculoskeletal model through forward dynamics. EMG data were measured from five cyclists who do not have musculoskeletal diseases during three minutes pedaling with a constant load (150 W) and cadence (90 RPM). The muscles used for the analysis were the Vastus Lateralis (VL), Tibialis Anterior (TA), Bicep Femoris (BF), and Gastrocnemius Medial (GM). Person’s correlation coefficients of the muscle activity patterns, the peak timing of the maximum muscle activities, and the total muscle activities were calculated and compared. BIKE3D model of AnyBody (Anybodytech, Denmark) was used for the musculoskeletal model simulation. The comparisons of the actual experiments with the simulation results showed significant correlations in the muscle activity patterns (VL: 0.789, TA: 0.503, BF: 0.468, GM: 0.670). The peak timings of the maximum muscle activities were distributed at particular phases. The total muscle activities were compared with the normalized muscle activities, and the comparison showed about 10% difference in the VL (+10%), TA (+9.7%), and BF (+10%), excluding the GM (+29.4%). Thus, it can be concluded that muscle activities of model & experiment showed similar results. The results of this study indicated that it was possible to apply the simulation of further improved musculoskeletal model to cycle fitting.

Keywords: musculoskeletal modeling, EMG, cycle fitting, simulation

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Authors: Jinan Fiaidhi, Sabah Mohammed

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Diagnosing cataract severity is an important factor in deciding to undertake surgery. It is usually conducted by an ophthalmologist or through taking a variety of fundus photography that needs to be examined by the ophthalmologist. This paper carries out an investigation using a Siamese neural net that can be trained with small anchor samples to score cataract severity. The model used in this paper is based on a triplet loss function that takes the ophthalmologist best experience in rating positive and negative anchors to a specific cataract scaling system. This approach that takes the heuristics of the ophthalmologist is generally called the thick data approach, which is a kind of machine learning approach that learn from a few shots. Clinical Relevance: The lens of the eye is mostly made up of water and proteins. A cataract occurs when these proteins at the eye lens start to clump together and block lights causing impair vision. This research aims at employing thick data machine learning techniques to rate the severity of the cataract using Siamese neural network.

Keywords: thick data analytics, siamese neural network, triplet-loss model, few shot learning

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Authors: Amal M. Alrayes

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Data and system quality play a central role in organizational success, and the quality of any existing information system has a major influence on the effectiveness of overall system performance.Given the importance of system and data quality to an organization, it is relevant to highlight their importance on organizational performance in the Kingdom of Bahrain. This research aims to discover whether system quality and data quality are related, and to study the impact of system and data quality on organizational success. A theoretical model based on previous research is used to show the relationship between data and system quality, and organizational impact. We hypothesize, first, that system quality is positively associated with organizational impact, secondly that system quality is positively associated with data quality, and finally that data quality is positively associated with organizational impact. A questionnaire was conducted among public and private organizations in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The results show that there is a strong association between data and system quality, that affects organizational success.

Keywords: data quality, performance, system quality, Kingdom of Bahrain

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Authors: C. Slim

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This paper presents an integrated model, which hybridized data envelopment analysis (DEA) and support vector machine (SVM) together, to class countries according to their efficiency and performance. This model takes into account aspects of multi-dimensional indicators, decision-making hierarchy and relativity of measurement. Starting from a set of indicators of performance as exhaustive as possible, a process of successive aggregations has been developed to attain an overall evaluation of a country’s competitiveness.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support vector machine (SVM), Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Aggregations, indicators of performance

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Authors: Aakansha Gupta, Neha Vadnere, Tapasvi Soni, M. Anbarsi

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Protein secondary structure prediction is one of the most important goals pursued by bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry; it is highly important in medicine and biotechnology. Some aspects of protein functions and genome analysis can be predicted by secondary structure prediction. This is used to help annotate sequences, classify proteins, identify domains, and recognize functional motifs. In this paper, we represent protein secondary structure as a mathematical model. To extract and predict the protein secondary structure from the primary structure, we require a set of parameters. Any constants appearing in the model are specified by these parameters, which also provide a mechanism for efficient and accurate use of data. To estimate these model parameters there are many algorithms out of which the most popular one is the EM algorithm or called the Expectation Maximization Algorithm. These model parameters are estimated with the use of protein datasets like RS126 by using the Bayesian Probabilistic method (data set being categorical). This paper can then be extended into comparing the efficiency of EM algorithm to the other algorithms for estimating the model parameters, which will in turn lead to an efficient component for the Protein Secondary Structure Prediction. Further this paper provides a scope to use these parameters for predicting secondary structure of proteins using machine learning techniques like neural networks and fuzzy logic. The ultimate objective will be to obtain greater accuracy better than the previously achieved.

Keywords: model parameters, expectation maximization algorithm, protein secondary structure prediction, bioinformatics

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Authors: Fatemeh Yazdanmehr, Iulian Nistor

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The scope of the current study is the evaluation of the electric field effect on electrostatic desalting mathematical modeling with laboratory data. This research study was focused on developing a model for an existing operation desalting unit of one of the Iranian heavy oil field with a 75 MBPD production capacity. The high temperature of inlet oil to dehydration unit reduces the oil recovery, so the mathematical modeling of desalter operation parameters is very significant. The existing production unit operating data has been used for the accuracy of the mathematical desalting plant model. The inlet oil temperature to desalter was decreased from 110 to 80°C, and the desalted electrical field was increased from 0.75 to 2.5 Kv/cm. The model result shows that the desalter parameter changes meet the water-oil specification and also the oil production and consequently annual income is increased. In addition to that, changing desalter operation conditions reduces environmental footprint because of flare gas reduction. Following to specify the accuracy of selected electrostatic desalter electrical field, laboratory data has been used. Experimental data are used to ensure the effect of electrical field change on desalter. Therefore, the lab test is done on a crude oil sample. The results include the dehydration efficiency in the presence of a demulsifier and under electrical field (0.75 Kv) conditions at various temperatures. Comparing lab experimental and electrostatic desalter mathematical model results shows 1-3 percent acceptable error which confirms the validity of desalter specification and operation conditions changes.

Keywords: desalter, electrical field, demulsification, mathematical modeling, water-oil separation

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Authors: M. Hossain, A. H. Khan, M. A. R. Sarkar

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Primary containment structure is one of the five safety layers of a nuclear facility which is needed to be designed in such a manner that it can withstand the pressure and excessive radioactivity during accidental situations. It is also necessary to ensure minimization of cost with maximum possible safety in order to make the design economically feasible and attractive. This paper attempts to identify the optimum design conditions for primary containment structure considering both mechanical and radiation safety keeping the economic aspects in mind. This work takes advantage of commercial simulation software to identify the suitable conditions without the requirement of costly experiments. Generated data may be helpful for further studies.

Keywords: PWR, concrete containment, finite element approach, neutron attenuation, Von Mises stress

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Authors: Mohamed Roudane

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The objective of this study is to know the dynamic behavior of a multi swirling jet used for air conditioning inside a room. To conduct this study, we designed a facility to ensure proper conditions of confinement in which we placed five air blowing devices with adjustable vanes, providing multiple swirling turbulent jets. The jets were issued in the same direction and the same spacing defined between them. This study concerned the numerical simulation of the dynamic mixing of confined swirling multi-jets, and examined the influence of important parameters of a swirl diffuser system on the dynamic performance characteristics. The CFD investigations are carried out by a hybrid mesh to discretize the computational domain. In this work, the simulations have been performed using the finite volume method and FLUENT solver, in which the standard k-ε RNG turbulence model was used for turbulence computations.

Keywords: simulation, dynamic behavior, swirl, turbulent jet

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Authors: Vivian Isaac, A. T. Joteeshwaran, Craig McLachlan

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The University of New South Wales (UNSW) Rural Clinical School has a strategic collaborative focus on chronic disease and public health. Our objectives are to understand rural environmental and biological interactions in vulnerable community populations. The UNSW Rural Clinical School translational model is a spoke and hub network. This spoke and hub model connects rural data and biological specimens with city based collaborative public health research networks. Similar spoke and hub models are prevalent across research centers in India. The Australia-India Council grant was awarded so we could establish sustainable public health and community research collaborations. As part of the collaborative network we are developing strategies around data and biological sharing platforms between Indian Institute of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), Hyderabad and Rural Clinical School UNSW. The key objective is to understand how research collaborations are conducted in India and also how data can shared and tracked with external collaborators such as ourselves. A framework to improve data sharing for research collaborations, including DNA was proposed as a project outcome. The complexities of sharing biological data has been investigated via a visit to India. A flagship sustainable project between Rural Clinical School UNSW and PHFI would illustrate a model of data sharing platforms.

Keywords: data sharing, collaboration, public health research, chronic disease

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Authors: Pratima Thapa

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Background: It is very critical to understand that awareness of family planning and proper utilization of contraceptives is an important indicator for reducing maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity. It also plays an important role in promoting reproductive health of the women in an underdeveloped country like ours. Objective: To assess knowledge, attitude and practices of contraception among married women of reproductive age group in selected wards of Dharan Sub-Metropolitan City. Materials and methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted among 209 married women of reproductive age. Simple random sampling was used to select the wards, population proportionate sampling for selecting the sample numbers from each wards and purposive sampling for selecting each sample. Semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect data. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to interpret the data considering p-value 0.05. Results: The mean ± SD age of the respondents was 30.01 ± 8.12 years. Majority 92.3% had ever heard of contraception. Popular known method was Inj. Depo (92.7%). Mass media (85.8%) was the major source of information. Mean percentage score of knowledge was 45.23%.less than half (45%) had adequate knowledge. Majority 90.4% had positive attitude. Only 64.6% were using contraceptives currently. Misbeliefs and fear of side effects were the main reason for not using contraceptives. Education, occupation, and total income of the family was associated with knowledge regarding contraceptives. Results for Binary Logistic Regression showed significant correlates of attitude with distance to the nearest health facility (OR=7.97, p<0.01), education (OR=0.24, p<0.05) and age group (0.03, p<0.01). Regarding practice, likelihood of being current user of contraceptives increased significantly by being literate (OR=5.97, p<0.01), having nuclear family (OR=4.96, p<0.01), living in less than 30 minute walk distance from nearest health facility (OR=3.34, p<0.05), women’s participation in decision making regarding household and fertility choices (OR=5.23, p<0.01) and husband’s support on using contraceptives (OR=9.05, p<0.01). Significant and positive correlation between knowledge-attitude, knowledge-practice and attitude-practice were observed. Conclusion: Results of the study indicates that there is need to increase awareness programs in order to intensify the knowledge and practices of contraception. The positive correlation indorses that better knowledge can lead to positive attitude and hence good practice. Further, projects aiming to increase better counselling about contraceptives, its side effects and the positive effects that outweighs the negative aspects should be enrolled appropriately.

Keywords: attitude, contraceptives, knowledge, practice

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Authors: Chen Xi, Liu Xuebing, Lao Xueru, Kuan Sinman, Jiang Yike, Wang Hanwei, Yang Xiaolang, Zhou Junjie, Xie Jinpeng

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To further promote the development of smart cities, the microscopic "nerve endings" of the City Intelligent Model (CIM) are extended to be more sensitive. In this paper, we develop a pedestrian trajectory twin terminal based on the CIM and CNN technology. It also uses 5G networks, architectural and geoinformatics technologies, convolutional neural networks, combined with deep learning networks for human behavior recognition models, to provide empirical data such as 'pedestrian flow data and human behavioral characteristics data', and ultimately form spatial performance evaluation criteria and spatial performance warning systems, to make the empirical data accurate and intelligent for prediction and decision making.

Keywords: urban planning, urban governance, CIM, artificial intelligence, sustainable development

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Authors: Xin Yuan, Yuji Ryu

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The indoor environment has a significant impact on occupants and a suitable indoor thermal environment can improve the children’s physical health and study efficiency during school hours. In this study, we explored the thermal environment in infant facilities classrooms for infants and children aged 1-5 and evaluated their thermal comfort. An infant facility in Fukuoka, Japan was selected for a case study to capture the infant and children’s thermal comfort characteristics in summer and winter from August 2019 to February 2020. Previous studies have pointed out using PMV indices to evaluate the thermal comfort for children could create errors that may lead to misleading results. Thus, to grasp the actual thermal environment and thermal comfort characteristics of infants and children, we retrieved the operative temperature of each child through the thermal model, based on the sensible heat transfer from the skin to the environment, and the measured classroom indoor temperature, relative humidity, and pocket temperature of children’s shorts. The statistical and comparative analysis of the results shows that (1) the operative temperature showed a large individual difference among children, with the maximum reached 6.25 °C. (2) The children might feel slightly cold in the classrooms in summer, with the frequencies of operative temperature within the interval of 26-28 ºC were only 5.33% and 16.6% for children respectively. (3) The thermal environment around children is more complicated in winter the operative temperature could exceed or fail to reach the thermal comfort temperature zone (20-23 ºC interval). (4) The environmental conditions surrounding the children may account for the reduction of their thermal comfort. The findings contribute to improving the understanding of the infant and children’s thermal comfort and provide valuable information for designers and governments to develop effective strategies for the indoor thermal environment considering the perspective of children.

Keywords: infant and children, thermal environment, thermal model, operative temperature.

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Authors: Zainab Fadil, Mouath Alawadhi, Abdullah Alhusainan, Fahad Alqadiri, Abdulaziz Alqadiri

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This study investigates how lightweight a fire resistance door will perform with under types of insulation materials. Data is initially collected from various websites, scientific books and research papers. Results show that different layers of insulation in a single door can perform better than one insulator. Furthermore, insulation materials that are lightweight, high strength and low thermal conductivity are the most preferred for fire-rated doors. Whereas heavy weight, low strength, and high thermal conductivity are least preferred for fire-resistance doors. Fire-rated doors specifications, theoretical test methodology, structural analysis, and comparison between five different models with diverse layers insulations are presented. Five different door models are being investigated with different insulation materials and arrangements. Model 1 contains an air gap between door layers. Model 2 includes phenolic foam, mild steel and polyurethane. Model 3 includes phenolic foam and glass wool. Model 4 includes polyurethane and glass wool. Model 5 includes only rock wool between the door layers. It is noticed that model 5 is the most efficient model and its design is simple compared to other models. For this model, numerical calculations are performed to check its efficiency and the results are compared to data from experiments for validation. Good agreement was noticed.

Keywords: fire resistance, insulation, strength, thermal conductivity, lightweight, layers

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Authors: Masaumi Nakahara, Sou Watanabe, Hiromichi Ogi, Atsuhiro Shibata, Kazunori Nomura

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In the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, three types of experimental research, advanced reactor fuel reprocessing, radioactive waste disposal, and nuclear fuel cycle technology, have been carried out at the Chemical Processing Facility. The facility has generated high level radioactive liquid and solid wastes in hot cells. The high level radioactive solid waste is divided into three main categories, a flammable waste, a non-flammable waste, and a solid reagent waste. A plastic product is categorized into the flammable waste and molten with a heating mantle. The non-flammable waste is cut with a band saw machine for reducing the volume. Among the solid reagent waste, a used adsorbent after the experiments is heated, and an extractant is decomposed for its stabilization. All high level radioactive solid wastes in the hot cells are packed in a high level radioactive solid waste can. The high level radioactive solid waste can is transported to the 2nd High Active Solid Waste Storage in the Tokai Reprocessing Plant in the Japan Atomic Energy Agency.

Keywords: high level radioactive solid waste, advanced reactor fuel reprocessing, radioactive waste disposal, nuclear fuel cycle technology

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Authors: Murat Iskender Aktaş, Sadi Ergin, Rasime Acar Aktaş

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In the light of fast-paced changes and developments in the health sector, the Ministry of Health started a new structuring with decree law numbered 663 within the scope of the Project of Transformation in Health. Accordingly, hospitals should ensure patient satisfaction through more efficient, more effective use of resources and sustainable finance by placing patients in the centre and should operate to increase efficiency to its maximum level while doing these. Within this study, in order to find out how efficient the hospitals were in terms of medical waste management between the years 2011-2014, the data from six hospitals of Amasya Public Hospitals Union were evaluated separately through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. First of all, input variables were determined. Input variables were the number of patients admitted to polyclinics, the number of inpatients in clinics, the number of patients who were operated and the number of patients who applied to the laboratory. Output variable was the cost of medical wastes in Turkish liras. Each hospital’s total medical waste level before and after public hospitals union; the amounts of average medical waste per patient admitted to polyclinics, per inpatient in clinics, per patient admitted to laboratory and per operated patient were compared within each group. In addition, average medical waste levels and costs were compared for Turkey in general and Europe in general. Paired samples t-test was used to find out whether the changes (increase-decrease) after public hospitals union were statistically significant. The health facilities that were unsuccessful in terms of medical waste management before and after public hospital union and the factors that caused this failure were determined. Based on the results, for each health facility that was ineffective in terms of medical waste management, the level of improvement required for each input was determined. The results of the study showed that there was an improvement in medical waste management applications after the health facilities became a member of public hospitals union; their medical waste levels were lower than the average of Turkey and Europe while the averages of cost of disposal were the highest.

Keywords: medical waste management, cost of medical waste, public hospitals, data envelopment analysis

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Authors: L. Siva Rama Krishna, Sriram Venkatesh, M. Sastish Kumar, M. Uma Maheswara Chary

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Rapid Prototyping (RP) is a technology that produces models and prototype parts from 3D CAD model data, CT/MRI scan data, and model data created from 3D object digitizing systems. There are several RP process like Stereolithography (SLA), Solid Ground Curing (SGC), Selective Laser Sintering (SLS), Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM), 3D Printing (3DP) among them SLS and FDM RP processes are used to fabricate pattern of custom cranial implant. RP technology is useful in engineering and biomedical application. This is helpful in engineering for product design, tooling and manufacture etc. RP biomedical applications are design and development of medical devices, instruments, prosthetics and implantation; it is also helpful in planning complex surgical operation. The traditional approach limits the full appreciation of various bony structure movements and therefore the custom implants produced are difficult to measure the anatomy of parts and analyse the changes in facial appearances accurately. Cranioplasty surgery is a surgical correction of a defect in cranial bone by implanting a metal or plastic replacement to restore the missing part. This paper aims to do a comparative study on the dimensional error of CAD and SLS RP Models for reconstruction of cranial defect by comparing the virtual CAD with the physical RP model of a cranial defect.

Keywords: rapid prototyping, selective laser sintering, cranial defect, dimensional error

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Authors: Zainab Yahaya Suleiman

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Physical fitness, as one of the most important keys to a healthy wellbeing, is the basis of dynamic and creative intellectual activity. As a result, the fitness world is expanding every day. It is believed that a fitness centre is a place of healing and also the natural environment is vital to speedy recovery. The aim of this paper is to propose and designs a suitable location for a fitness centre in Batagarawa metropolis. Batagarawa city is enriched with four tertiary institutions with diverse commerce and culture but lacks the facility of a well-equipped fitness centre. The proposed fitness centre intends to be an organically sound centre that will make use of principles of organic architecture to create a new pleasant environment between man and his environments. Organic architecture is the science of designing a building within pleasant natural resources and features surrounding the environment. It is regarded as visual poetry and reinterpretation of nature’s principles; as well as embodies a settlement of person, place, and materials. Using organic architecture, the design was interlaced with the dynamic, organic and monumental features surrounding the environment. The city has inadequate/no facility that is considered organic where one can keep fit in a friendly, conducive and adequate location. Thus, the need for establishing a fitness centre to cater for this need cannot be over-emphasised. Conclusively, a fitness centre will be an added advantage to this fast growing centre of learning.

Keywords: organic architecture, fitness center, environment, natural resources, natural features, building design

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Authors: Ruchika Malhotra, Megha Khanna

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The development of change prediction models can help the software practitioners in planning testing and inspection resources at early phases of software development. However, a major challenge faced during the training process of any classification model is the imbalanced nature of the software quality data. A data with very few minority outcome categories leads to inefficient learning process and a classification model developed from the imbalanced data generally does not predict these minority categories correctly. Thus, for a given dataset, a minority of classes may be change prone whereas a majority of classes may be non-change prone. This study explores various alternatives for adeptly handling the imbalanced software quality data using different sampling methods and effective MetaCost learners. The study also analyzes and justifies the use of different performance metrics while dealing with the imbalanced data. In order to empirically validate different alternatives, the study uses change data from three application packages of open-source Android data set and evaluates the performance of six different machine learning techniques. The results of the study indicate extensive improvement in the performance of the classification models when using resampling method and robust performance measures.

Keywords: change proneness, empirical validation, imbalanced learning, machine learning techniques, object-oriented metrics

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Authors: Elnaz Saeedi, Jamileh Abolaghasemi, Mohsen Nasiri Tousi, Saeedeh Khosravi

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Goals and Objectives: A typical analysis of survival data involves the modeling of time-to-event data, such as the time till death. A frailty model is a random effect model for time-to-event data, where the random effect has a multiplicative influence on the baseline hazard function. This article aims to investigate the use of gamma frailty model with concomitant variable in order to individualize the prognostic factors that influence the liver cirrhosis patients’ survival times. Methods: During the one-year study period (May 2008-May 2009), data have been used from the recorded information of patients with liver cirrhosis who were scheduled for liver transplantation and were followed up for at least seven years in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Iran. In order to determine the effective factors for cirrhotic patients’ survival in the presence of latent variables, the gamma frailty distribution has been applied. In this article, it was considering the parametric model, such as Exponential and Weibull distributions for survival time. Data analysis is performed using R software, and the error level of 0.05 was considered for all tests. Results: 305 patients with liver cirrhosis including 180 (59%) men and 125 (41%) women were studied. The age average of patients was 39.8 years. At the end of the study, 82 (26%) patients died, among them 48 (58%) were men and 34 (42%) women. The main cause of liver cirrhosis was found hepatitis 'B' with 23%, followed by cryptogenic with 22.6% were identified as the second factor. Generally, 7-year’s survival was 28.44 months, for dead patients and for censoring was 19.33 and 31.79 months, respectively. Using multi-parametric survival models of progressive and regressive, Exponential and Weibull models with regard to the gamma frailty distribution were fitted to the cirrhosis data. In both models, factors including, age, bilirubin serum, albumin serum, and encephalopathy had a significant effect on survival time of cirrhotic patients. Conclusion: To investigate the effective factors for the time of patients’ death with liver cirrhosis in the presence of latent variables, gamma frailty model with parametric distributions seems desirable.

Keywords: frailty model, latent variables, liver cirrhosis, parametric distribution

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Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin

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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.

Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data

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Authors: Parthasarathy J., Ramshankar C. S.

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Engineering drawings these days play an important role in every part of an industry. By and large, Engineering drawings are influential over every phase of the product development process. Traditionally, drawings are used for communication in industry because they are the clearest way to represent the product manufacturing information. Until recently, manufacturing activities were driven by engineering data captured in 2D paper documents or digital representations of those documents. The need of engineering drawing is inevitable. Still Engineering drawings are disadvantageous in re-entry of data throughout manufacturing life cycle. This document based approach is prone to errors and requires costly re-entry of data at every stage in the manufacturing life cycle. So there is a requirement to eliminate Engineering drawings throughout product development process and to implement 3D Model Based Engineering (3D MBE or 3D MBD). Adopting MBD appears to be the next logical step to continue reducing time-to-market and improve product quality. Ideally, by fully applying the MBD concept, the product definition will no longer rely on engineering drawings throughout the product lifecycle. This project addresses the need of Engineering drawing and its influence in various parts of an industry and the need to implement the 3D Model Based Engineering with its advantages and the technical barriers that must be overcome in order to implement 3D Model Based Engineering. This project also addresses the requirements of neutral formats and its realisation in order to implement the digital product definition principles in a light format. In order to prove the concepts of 3D Model Based Engineering, the screw jack body part is also demonstrated. At ZF Windpower Coimbatore Limited, 3D Model Based Definition is implemented to Torque Arm (Machining and Casting), Steel tube, Pinion shaft, Cover, Energy tube.

Keywords: engineering drawing, model based engineering MBE, MBD, CAD

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Authors: Kai Liu

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Remote sensing-derived land surface temperature (LST) can provide an indication of the temporal and spatial patterns of surface evapotranspiration (ET). However, the spatial resolution achieved by existing commonly satellite products is ~1 km, which remains too coarse for ET estimations. This paper proposed a model that can disaggregate coarse resolution MODIS LST at 1 km scale to fine spatial resolutions at the scale of 250 m. Our approach attempted to weaken the impacts of soil moisture and growing statues on LST variations. The proposed model spatially disaggregates the coarse thermal data by using a non-linear model involving Bowen ratio, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and photochemical reflectance index (PRI). This LST disaggregation model was tested on two heterogeneous landscapes in central Iowa, USA and Heihe River, China, during the growing seasons. Statistical results demonstrated that our model achieved better than the two classical methods (DisTrad and TsHARP). Furthermore, using the surface energy balance model, it was observed that the estimated ETs using the disaggregated LST from our model were more accurate than those using the disaggregated LST from DisTrad and TsHARP.

Keywords: Bowen ration, downscaling, evapotranspiration, land surface temperature

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Authors: Valentina Futoryanova, Hugh Hunt

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One of the common failure modes of the diesel engine turbochargers is high cycle fatigue of the turbine wheel blades. Mistuning of the blades due to the casting process is believed to contribute to the failure mode. Laser vibrometer is used to characterize mistuning for a population of turbine wheels through the analysis of the blade response to piezo speaker induced noise. The turbine wheel design under investigation is radial and is typically used in 6-12 L diesel engine applications. Amplitudes and resonance frequencies are reviewed and summarized. The study also includes test results for a paddle wheel that represents a perfectly tuned system and acts as a reference. Mass spring model is developed for the paddle wheel and the model suitability is tested against the actual data. Randomization is applied to the stiffness matrix to model the mistuning effect in the turbine wheels. Experimental data is shown to have good agreement with the model.

Keywords: vibration, radial turbines, mistuning, turbine blades, modal analysis, periodic structures, finite element

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Authors: Mahacine Amrani

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This paper aims at reviewing some Moroccan industrial applications of wavelet especially in the dynamic identification of a process model using Haar wavelet mother response. Two recent Moroccan study cases are described using dynamic data originated by a distillation column and an industrial polyethylene process plant. The purpose of the wavelet scheme is to build on-line dynamic models. In both case studies, a comparison is carried out between the Haar wavelet mother response model and a linear difference equation model. Finally it concludes, on the base of the comparison of the process performances and the best responses, which may be useful to create an estimated on-line internal model control and its application towards model-predictive controllers (MPC). All calculations were implemented using AutoSignal Software.

Keywords: process performance, model, wavelets, Haar, Moroccan

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Authors: Danielle M. Barna, Kolbjørn Engeland, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Chong-Yu Xu

Abstract:

Design flood values give estimates of flood magnitude within a given return period and are essential to making adaptive decisions around land use planning, infrastructure design, and disaster mitigation. Often design flood values are needed at locations with insufficient data. Additionally, in hydrologic applications where flood retention is important (e.g., floodplain management and reservoir design), design flood values are required at different flood durations. A statistical approach to this problem is a development of a regression model for extremes where some of the parameters are dependent on flood duration in addition to being covariate-dependent. In hydrology, this is called a regional flood-duration-frequency (regional-QDF) model. Typically, the underlying statistical distribution is chosen to be the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. However, as the support of the GEV distribution depends on both its parameters and the range of the data, special care must be taken with the development of the regional model. In particular, we find that the GEV is problematic when developing a GAMLSS-type analysis due to the difficulty of proposing a link function that is independent of the unknown parameters and the observed data. We discuss these challenges in the context of developing a regional QDF model for Norway.

Keywords: design flood values, bayesian statistics, regression modeling of extremes, extreme value analysis, GEV

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Authors: Panagiota Koliousi, Natasha Miaouli

Abstract:

We compare product and labour market liberalization under the two trade union bargaining models: the Right-to-Manage (RTM) model and the Efficient Bargaining (EB) model. The vehicle is a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model that incorporates two types of agents (capitalists and workers), imperfectly competitive product and labour markets. The model is solved numerically employing common parameter values and data from the euro area. A key message is that product market deregulation is favourable under any labour market structure while opting for labour market deregulation one should provide special attention to the structure of the labour market such as the bargaining system of unions. If the prevailing way of bargaining is the RTM model then restructuring both markets is beneficial for all agents.

Keywords: market structure, structural reforms, trade unions, unemployment

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Elias K. Maragos, Petros E. Maravelakis

Abstract:

In Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis (DDEA), which is a subfield of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the productivity of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is considered in relation to time. In this case, as it is accepted by the most of the researchers, there are outputs, which are produced by a DMU to be used as inputs in a future time. Those outputs are known as intermediates. The common models, in DDEA, do not take into account the shape of the distribution of those inputs, outputs or intermediates data, assuming that the distribution of the virtual value of them does not deviate from linearity. This weakness causes the limitation of the accuracy of the analytical power of the traditional DDEA models. In this paper, the authors, using the concept of piecewise linear inputs and outputs, propose an extended DDEA model. The proposed model increases the flexibility of the traditional DDEA models and improves the measurement of the dynamic performance of DMUs.

Keywords: Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis, DDEA, piecewise linear inputs, piecewise linear outputs

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Ali Raouli, Amin Chegenizadeh, Hamid Nikraz

Abstract:

The Perth metropolitan area and its surrounding regions have been expanding rapidly in recent decades and it is expected that this growth will continue in the years to come. With this rapid growth and the resulting increase in population, consideration should be given to strategic planning and modelling for the future expansion of Perth. The accurate estimation of projected traffic volumes has always been a major concern for the transport modelers and planners. Development of a reliable strategic transport model depends significantly on the inputs data into the model and the calibrated parameters of the model to reflect the existing situation. Trip distribution is the second step in four-step modelling (FSM) which is complex due to its behavioral nature. Gravity model is the most common method for trip distribution. The spatial separation between the Origin and Destination (OD) zones will be reflected in gravity model by applying deterrence functions which provide an opportunity to include people’s behavior in choosing their destinations based on distance, time and cost of their journeys. Deterrence functions play an important role for distribution of the trips within a study area and would simulate the trip distances and therefore should be calibrated for any particular strategic transport model to correctly reflect the trip behavior within the modelling area. This paper aims to review the most common deterrence functions and propose a calibrated deterrence function for work trips within the Perth Metropolitan Area based on the information obtained from the latest available Household data and Perth and Region Travel Survey (PARTS) data. As part of this study, a four-step transport model using EMME software has been developed for Perth Metropolitan Area to assist with the analysis and findings.

Keywords: deterrence function, four-step modelling, origin destination, transport model

Procedia PDF Downloads 159