Search results for: multivariate linear regression

Authors: Jack Nash, Chris Simpson, Holly Hurn, Ronel Terblanche, Alan Mistlin

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There is an increasing incidence of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) cases throughout sport and with this, a growing interest from governing bodies to ensure these are managed appropriately and player welfare is prioritised. The Berlin consensus statement on concussion in sport recommends a multidisciplinary approach when managing those patients who do not have full resolution of mTBI symptoms. There are as of yet no standardised guideline to follow in the treatment of complex cases mTBI in athletes. The aim of this project was to analyse the outcomes, both clinical and vocational, of all patients admitted to the mild Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI) service at the UK’s Defence Military Rehabilitation Centre Headley Court between 1st June 2008 and 1st February 2017, as a result of a sport induced injury, and evaluate potential predictive indicators of outcome. Patients were identified from a database maintained by the mTBI service. Clinical and occupational outcomes were ascertained from medical and occupational employment records, recorded prospectively, at time of discharge from the mTBI service. Outcomes were graded based on the vocational independence scale (VIS) and clinical documentation at discharge. Predictive indicators including referral time, age at time of injury, previous mental health diagnosis and a financial claim in place at time of entry to service were assessed using logistic regression. 45 Patients were treated for sport-related mTBI during this time frame. Clinically 96% of patients had full resolution of their mTBI symptoms after input from the mTBI service. 51% of patients returned to work at their previous vocational level, 4% had ongoing mTBI symptoms, 22% had ongoing physical rehabilitation needs, 11% required mental health input and 11% required further vestibular rehabilitation. Neither age, time to referral, pre-existing mental health condition nor compensation seeking had a significant impact on either vocational or clinical outcome in this population. The vast majority of patients reviewed in the mTBI clinic had persistent symptoms which could not be managed in primary care. A consultant-led, multidisciplinary approach to the diagnosis and management of mTBI has resulted in excellent clinical outcomes in these complex cases. High levels of symptom resolution suggest that this referral and treatment pathway is successful and is a model which could be replicated in other organisations with consultant led input. Further understanding of both predictive and individual factors would allow clinicians to focus treatments on those who are most likely to develop long-term complications following mTBI. A consultant-led, multidisciplinary service ensures a large number of patients will have complete resolution of mTBI symptoms after sport-related mTBI. Further research is now required to ascertain the key predictive indicators of outcome following sport-related mTBI.

Keywords: brain injury, concussion, neurology, rehabilitation, sports injury

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Authors: Martyna Chotomska, Aleksandra Studzinska, Marta Lisowska, Justyna Szubert, Aleksandra Tabis, Jacek Bania, Arkadiusz Miazek

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Objectives: Assessing antigen-specific T cell responses is of utmost importance for the pre-clinical testing of prototype vaccines against intracellular pathogens and tumor antigens. Mainly two types of in vitro assays are used for this purpose 1) enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISpot) and 2) intracellular cytokine staining (ICS). Both are time-consuming, relatively expensive, and require manual dexterity. Here, we assess if a straightforward detection of luciferase activity in blood samples of transgenic reporter mice expressing a secreted Lucia luciferase under the transcriptional control of IFN-γ promoter parallels the sensitivity of IFNγ ELISpot assay. Methods: IFN-γ-LUCIA mouse strain carrying multiple copies of Lucia luciferase transgene under the transcriptional control of IFNγ minimal promoter were generated by pronuclear injection of linear DNA. The specificity of transgene expression and mobilization was assessed in vitro using transgenic splenocytes exposed to various mitogens. The IFN-γ-LUCIA mice were immunized with 50mg of ovalbumin (OVA) emulsified in incomplete Freund’s adjuvant three times every two weeks by subcutaneous injections. Blood samples were collected before and five days after each immunization. Luciferase activity was assessed in blood serum. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were separated and assessed for frequencies of OVA-specific IFNγ-secreting T cells. Results: We show that in vitro cultured splenocytes of IFN-γ-LUCIA mice respond by 2 and 3 fold increase in secreted luciferase activity to T cell mitogens concanavalin A and phorbol myristate acetate, respectively but fail to respond to B cell-stimulating E.coli lipopolysaccharide. Immunization of IFN-γ-LUCIA mice with OVA leads to over 4 fold increase in luciferase activity in blood serum five days post-immunization with a barely detectable increase in OVA-specific, IFNγ-secreting T cells by ELISpot. Second and third immunizations, further increase the luciferase activity and coincidently also increase the frequencies of OVA-specific T cells by ELISpot. Conclusions: We conclude that minimally invasive monitoring of luciferase secretions in blood serum of IFN-γ-LUCIA mice constitutes a sensitive method for evaluating primary and memory Th1 responses to protein antigens. As such, this method may complement existing methods for rapid immunogenicity assessment of prototype vaccines.

Keywords: ELISpot, immunogenicity, interferon-gamma, reporter mice, vaccines

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Authors: Naresh Kumar, Radhika Sharma, A. K. Singh

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Granites from Khanak and Devsar areas, a part of Malani Igneous Suite (MIS) were investigated for their geochemical characteristics to understand the petrogenetic aspect of the research area. Neoproterozoic rocks of MIS are well exposed in Jhunjhunu, Jodhpur, Pali, Barmer, Jalor, Jaisalmer districts of Rajasthan and Bhiwani district of Haryana and also occur at Kirana hills of Pakistan. The MIS predominantly consists of acidic volcanic with acidic plutonic (granite of various types), mafic volcanic, mafic intrusive and minor amount of pyroclasts. Based on the field and petrographical studies, 28 samples were selected and analyzed for geochemical analysis of major, trace and rare earth elements at the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun by X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (XRF) and ICP-MS (Inductively Coupled Plasma- Mass Spectrometry). Granites from the studied areas are categorized as grey, green and pink. Khanak granites consist of quartz, k-feldspar, plagioclase, and biotite as essential minerals and hematite, zircon, annite, monazite & rutile as accessory minerals. In Devsar granites, plagioclase is replaced by perthite and occurs as dominantly. Geochemically, granites from Khanak and Devsar areas exhibit typical A-type granites characteristics with their enrichment in SiO2, Na2O+K2O, Fe/Mg, Rb, Zr, Y, Th, U, REE (except Eu) and significant depletion in MgO, CaO, Sr, P, Ti, Ni, Cr, V and Eu suggested about A-type affinities in Northwestern Peninsular India. The amount of heat production (HP) in green and grey granites of Devsar area varies upto 9.68 & 11.70 μWm-3 and total heat generation unit (HGU) i.e. 23.04 & 27.86 respectively. Pink granites of Khanak area display a higher enrichment of HP (16.53 μWm-3) and HGU (39.37) than the granites from Devsar area. Overall, they have much higher values of HP and HGU than the average value of continental crust (3.8 HGU), which imply a possible linear relationship among the surface heat flow and crustal heat generation in the rocks of MIS. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns show enriched LREE, moderate to strong negative Eu anomalies and more or less flat heavy REE. In primitive mantle-normalized multi-element variation diagrams, the granites show pronounced depletions in the high-field-strength elements (HFSE) Nb, Zr, Sr, P, and Ti. Geochemical characteristics (major, trace and REE) along with the use of various discrimination schemes revealed their probable correspondence to magma derived from the crustal origin by a different degree of partial melting.

Keywords: A-type granite, neoproterozoic, Malani igneous suite, Khanak, Devsar

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Authors: Aritra Majumdar

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While organizations strive to expand their new customer base, retaining existing relationships is a key aspect of improving overall profitability and also showcasing how successful an organization is in holding on to its customers. It is an experimentally proven fact that the lion’s share of profit always comes from existing customers. Hence seamless management of renewal journeys across different channels goes a long way in improving trust in the brand. From a quality assurance standpoint, time travel testing provides an approach to both business and technology teams to enhance the customer experience when they look to extend their partnership with the organization for a defined phase of time. This whitepaper will focus on key pillars of time travel testing: time travel planning, time travel data preparation, and enterprise automation. Along with that, it will call out some of the best practices and common accelerator implementation ideas which are generic across verticals like healthcare, insurance, etc. In this abstract document, a high-level snapshot of these pillars will be provided. Time Travel Planning: The first step of setting up a time travel testing roadmap is appropriate planning. Planning will include identifying the impacted systems that need to be time traveled backward or forward depending on the business requirement, aligning time travel with other releases, frequency of time travel testing, preparedness for handling renewal issues in production after time travel testing is done and most importantly planning for test automation testing during time travel testing. Time Travel Data Preparation: One of the most complex areas in time travel testing is test data coverage. Aligning test data to cover required customer segments and narrowing it down to multiple offer sequencing based on defined parameters are keys for successful time travel testing. Another aspect is the availability of sufficient data for similar combinations to support activities like defect retesting, regression testing, post-production testing (if required), etc. This section will talk about the necessary steps for suitable data coverage and sufficient data availability from a time travel testing perspective. Enterprise Automation: Time travel testing is never restricted to a single application. The workflow needs to be validated in the downstream applications to ensure consistency across the board. Along with that, the correctness of offers across different digital channels needs to be checked in order to ensure a smooth customer experience. This section will talk about the focus areas of enterprise automation and how automation testing can be leveraged to improve the overall quality without compromising on the project schedule. Along with the above-mentioned items, the white paper will elaborate on the best practices that need to be followed during time travel testing and some ideas pertaining to accelerator implementation. To sum it up, this paper will be written based on the real-time experience author had on time travel testing. While actual customer names and program-related details will not be disclosed, the paper will highlight the key learnings which will help other teams to implement time travel testing successfully.

Keywords: time travel planning, time travel data preparation, enterprise automation, best practices, accelerator implementation ideas

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Authors: Anatoliy A. Alabugin, Nikolay K. Topuzov, Sergei V. Aliukov

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It is well known, that while we do a quantitative evaluation of the quality control of some economic processes (in particular, resource saving) with help innovation factors, there are three groups of problems: high uncertainty of indicators of the quality management, their considerable ambiguity, and high costs to provide a large-scale research. These problems are defined by the use of contradictory objectives of enhancing of the quality control in accordance with innovation factors and preservation of economic stability of the enterprise. The most acutely, such factors are felt in the countries lagging behind developed economies of the world according to criteria of innovativeness and effectiveness of management of the resource saving. In our opinion, the following two methods for reconciling of the above-mentioned objectives and reducing of conflictness of the problems are to solve this task most effectively: 1) the use of paradigms and concepts of evolutionary improvement of quality of resource-saving management in the cycle "from the project of an innovative product (technology) - to its commercialization and update parameters of customer value"; 2) the application of the so-called integrative-cyclical approach which consistent with complexity and type of the concept, to studies allowing to get quantitative assessment of the stages of achieving of the consistency of these objectives (from baseline of imbalance, their compromise to achievement of positive synergies). For implementation, the following mathematical tools are included in the integrative-cyclical approach: index-factor analysis (to identify the most relevant factors); regression analysis of relationship between the quality control and the factors; the use of results of the analysis in the model of fuzzy sets (to adjust the feature space); method of non-parametric statistics (for a decision on the completion or repetition of the cycle in the approach in depending on the focus and the closeness of the connection of indicator ranks of disbalance of purposes). The repetition is performed after partial substitution of technical and technological factors ("hard") by management factors ("soft") in accordance with our proposed methodology. Testing of the proposed approach has shown that in comparison with the world practice there are opportunities to improve the quality of resource-saving management using innovation factors. We believe that the implementation of this promising research, to provide consistent management decisions for reducing the severity of the above-mentioned contradictions and increasing the validity of the choice of resource-development strategies in terms of parameters of quality management and sustainability of enterprise, is perspective. Our existing experience in the field of quality resource-saving management and the achieved level of scientific competence of the authors allow us to hope that the use of the integrative-cyclical approach to the study and evaluation of the resulting and factor indicators will help raise the level of resource-saving characteristics up to the value existing in the developed economies of post-industrial type.

Keywords: integrative-cyclical approach, quality control, evaluation, innovation factors. economic sustainability, innovation cycle of management, disbalance of goals of development

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Authors: Varun Agarwal

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Introduction: With the advent of personalized medicine, histopathological review of whole slide images (WSIs) for cancer diagnosis presents an exceedingly time-consuming, complex task. Specifically, detecting metastatic regions in WSIs of sentinel lymph node biopsies necessitates a full-scanned, holistic evaluation of the image. Thus, digital pathology, low-level image manipulation algorithms, and machine learning provide significant advancements in improving the efficiency and accuracy of WSI analysis. Using Camelyon16 data, this paper proposes a deep learning pipeline to automate and ameliorate breast cancer metastasis localization and WSI classification. Methodology: The model broadly follows five stages -region of interest detection, WSI partitioning into image tiles, convolutional neural network (CNN) image-segment classifications, probabilistic mapping of tumor localizations, and further processing for whole WSI classification. Transfer learning is applied to the task, with the implementation of Inception-ResNetV2 - an effective CNN classifier that uses residual connections to enhance feature representation, adding convolved outputs in the inception unit to the proceeding input data. Moreover, in order to augment the performance of the transfer learning CNN, a stack of convolutional denoising autoencoders (CDAE) is applied to produce embeddings that enrich image representation. Through a saliency-detection algorithm, visual training segments are generated, which are then processed through a denoising autoencoder -primarily consisting of convolutional, leaky rectified linear unit, and batch normalization layers- and subsequently a contrast-normalization function. A spatial pyramid pooling algorithm extracts the key features from the processed image, creating a viable feature map for the CNN that minimizes spatial resolution and noise. Results and Conclusion: The simplified and effective architecture of the fine-tuned transfer learning Inception-ResNetV2 network enhanced with the CDAE stack yields state of the art performance in WSI classification and tumor localization, achieving AUC scores of 0.947 and 0.753, respectively. The convolutional feature retention and compilation with the residual connections to inception units synergized with the input denoising algorithm enable the pipeline to serve as an effective, efficient tool in the histopathological review of WSIs.

Keywords: breast cancer, convolutional neural networks, metastasis mapping, whole slide images

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Authors: Savas Yildiz

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The article assesses the performance of international aid donors to determine the sub-national distribution of their aid projects dependent on recipient countries’ governance. The present paper extends the scope from a cross-country perspective to a more detailed analysis by looking at the effects of institutional qualities on the sub-national distribution of foreign aid. The analysis examines geo-referenced aid project in 37 countries and 404 regions at the first administrative division level in Sub-Saharan Africa from the World Bank (WB) and the African Development Bank (ADB) that were approved between the years 2000 and 2011. To measure the influence of institutional qualities on the distribution of aid the following measures are used: control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality and rule of law from the World Governance Indicators (WGI) and the corruption perception index from Transparency International. Furthermore, to assess the importance of ethnic heterogeneity on the sub-national distribution of aid projects, the study also includes interaction terms measuring ethnic fragmentation. The regression results indicate a general skew of aid projects towards regions which hold capital cities, however, being incumbent presidents’ birth region does not increase the allocation of aid projects significantly. Nevertheless, with increasing quality of institutions aid projects are less skewed towards capital regions and the previously estimated coefficients loose significance in most cases. Higher ethnic fragmentation also seems to impede the possibility to allocate aid projects mainly in capital city regions and presidents’ birth places. Additionally, to assess the performance of the WB based on its own proclaimed goal to aim the poor in a country, the study also includes sub-national wealth data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DSH), and finds that, even with better institutional qualities, regions with a larger share from the richest quintile receive significantly more aid than regions with a larger share of poor people. With increasing ethnic diversity, the allocation of aid projects towards regions where the richest citizens reside diminishes, but still remains high and significant. However, regions with a larger share of poor people still do not receive significantly more aid. This might imply that the sub-national distribution of aid projects increases in general with higher ethnic fragmentation, independent of the diverse regional needs. The results provide evidence that institutional qualities matter to undermine the influence of incumbent presidents on the allocation of aid projects towards their birth regions and capital regions. Moreover, even for countries with better institutional qualities the WB and the ADB do not seem to be able to aim the poor in a country with their aid projects. Even, if one considers need-based variables, such as infant mortality and child mortality rates, aid projects do not seem to be allocated in districts with a larger share of people in need. Therefore, the study provides further evidence using more detailed information on the sub-national distribution of aid projects that aid is not being allocated effectively towards regions with a larger share of poor people to alleviate poverty in recipient countries directly. Institutions do not have any significant influence on the sub-national distribution of aid towards the poor.

Keywords: aid allocation, georeferenced data, institutions, spatial analysis

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Authors: M. Beusink, E. W. C. Coenen

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The increased application of novel structural materials, such as high grade asphalt, concrete and laminated composites, has sparked the need for a better understanding of the often complex, non-linear mechanical behavior of such materials. The effective macroscopic mechanical response is generally dependent on the applied load path. Moreover, it is also significantly influenced by the microstructure of the material, e.g. embedded fibers, voids and/or grain morphology. At present, multiscale techniques are widely adopted to assess micro-macro interactions in a numerically efficient way. Computational homogenization techniques have been successfully applied over a wide range of engineering cases, e.g. cases involving first order and second order continua, thin shells and cohesive zone models. Most of these homogenization methods rely on Representative Volume Elements (RVE), which model the relevant microstructural details in a confined volume. Imposed through kinematical constraints or boundary conditions, a RVE can be subjected to a microscopic load sequence. This provides the RVE's effective stress-strain response, which can serve as constitutive input for macroscale analyses. Simultaneously, such a study of a RVE gives insight into fine scale phenomena such as microstructural damage and its evolution. It has been reported by several authors that the type of boundary conditions applied to the RVE affect the resulting homogenized stress-strain response. As a consequence, dedicated boundary conditions have been proposed to appropriately deal with this concern. For the specific case of a planar assumption for the analyzed structure, e.g. plane strain, axisymmetric or plane stress, this assumption needs to be addressed consistently in all considered scales. Although in many multiscale studies a planar condition has been employed, the related impact on the multiscale solution has not been explicitly investigated. This work therefore focuses on the influence of the planar assumption for multiscale modeling. In particular the plane stress case is highlighted, by proposing three different implementation strategies which are compatible with a first-order computational homogenization framework. The first method consists of applying classical plane stress theory at the microscale, whereas with the second method a generalized plane stress condition is assumed at the RVE level. For the third method, the plane stress condition is applied at the macroscale by requiring that the resulting macroscopic out-of-plane forces are equal to zero. These strategies are assessed through a numerical study of a thin walled structure and the resulting effective macroscale stress-strain response is compared. It is shown that there is a clear influence of the length scale at which the planar condition is applied.

Keywords: first-order computational homogenization, planar analysis, multiscale, microstrucutures

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Authors: Ladda Thiamwong, Renata Komalasari

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Falls are the leading cause of disability and hospitalization in low-income older adults. Fear of falling is present in 20% to 85 % of older adults and has been identified as an independent risk factor of fall risk, activity restriction, and loss of independence. About 12% of American older adults have subjective cognitive decline. Cognitive impairment is also an established factor of fall risk. However, it is unclear whether measures of fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline have the greatest association with fall risk in low-income older adults. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between fear of falling, subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (SCD-FP), and fall risk using simple screening tools. In this cross-section study, we collected data from community-dwelling older adults 60 years or older in low-income settings in Central Florida, and 86 participants were included in the data analysis. Fear of falling was assessed by the Short Fall Efficacy Scale- International (Short FES-I) with seven items. Subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (SCD-FP) was assessed by a self-reported experience of worsening or more frequent confusion or memory loss in the past 12 months and its functional implications. Fall risk was evaluated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Stay Independent checklist with 12 items. The majority of participants were female, and more than half of the participants were African American. More than half of the participants had a higher school degree or higher, and less than 20% had no financial problems. Less than 30% of the participants perceived their general health as very good- excellent. More than half of the participants lived alone, and less than 15% lived with a partner or spouse. About 60% of the participants had hypertension, 40% had diabetes, 16% had cancer, and 50% had arthritis. About 30% of the participants had difficulty walking up ten steps without resting, more than 40% felt unsteady when walking, and 30% had been advised to use a cane or walker to get around safely. Regression analysis showed that fall risk was associated with fear of falling ( = .524, p <.001) and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance ( = .465, p =.027). The structure coefficient showed that fear of falling (rs2 = .922) was a stronger predictor of fall risk than subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (rs2= .200). Fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance are growing public health issues, and addressing those issues is a public priority. Proactive screening for fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance is critical in fall prevention. A combination of all three self-reported tools (Short FES-I, SCD-FP, and CDC's Stay Independent checklist) takes less than 5 minutes to complete. Primary care providers or public health professionals should consider including these tools to screen fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance as part of fall risk assessment, especially in low-income settings. Thus, encouraging older adults and healthcare professionals to discuss fear of falling, subjective cognitive decline, and fall risk during routine medical office visits.

Keywords: falls, fall risk, fear of falling, cognition, subjective cognitive decline, low-income, older adults, community, screening, nursing, primary care

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Authors: Mark Darius Juszczak

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While epistemology, as a sub-field of philosophy, is generally concerned with theoretical questions about the nature of knowledge, the explosion in digital media technologies has resulted in an exponential increase in the storage and transmission of human information. That increase has resulted in a particular non-linear dynamic – digital epistemological functions are radically altering how and what we know. Neither the rate of that change nor the consequences of it have been well studied or taken into account in developing state-level strategies for epistemological functions. At the current time, US Federal policy, like that of virtually all other countries, maintains, at the national state level, clearly defined boundaries between various epistemological agencies - agencies that, in one way or another, mediate the functional use of knowledge. These agencies can take the form of patent and trademark offices, national library and archive systems, departments of education, departments such as the FTC, university systems and regulations, military research systems such as DARPA, federal scientific research agencies, medical and pharmaceutical accreditation agencies, federal funding for scientific research and legislative committees and subcommittees that attempt to alter the laws that govern epistemological functions. All of these agencies are in the constant process of creating, analyzing, and regulating knowledge. Those processes are, at the most general level, epistemological functions – they act upon and define what knowledge is. At the same time, however, there are no high-level strategic epistemological directives or frameworks that define those functions. The only time in US history where a proxy state-level epistemological strategy existed was between 1961 and 1969 when the Kennedy Administration committed the United States to the Apollo program. While that program had a singular technical objective as its outcome, that objective was so technologically advanced for its day and so complex so that it required a massive redirection of state-level epistemological functions – in essence, a broad and diverse set of state-level agencies suddenly found themselves working together towards a common epistemological goal. This paper does not call for a repeat of the Apollo program. Rather, its purpose is to investigate the minimum structural requirements for a national state-level epistemological strategy in the United States. In addition, this paper also seeks to analyze how the epistemological work of the multitude of national agencies within the United States would be affected by such a high-level framework. This paper is an exploratory study of this type of framework. The primary hypothesis of the author is that such a function is possible but would require extensive re-framing and reclassification of traditional epistemological functions at the respective agency level. In much the same way that, for example, DHS (Department of Homeland Security) evolved to respond to a new type of security threat in the world for the United States, it is theorized that a lack of coordination and alignment in epistemological functions will equally result in a strategic threat to the United States.

Keywords: strategic security, epistemological functions, epistemological agencies, Apollo program

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Authors: Olena Kavats, Dmitry Khramov, Kateryna Sergieieva, Vladimir Vasyliev, Iurii Kavats

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Geoinformation technologies of space agromonitoring are a means of operative decision making support in the tasks of managing the agricultural sector of the economy. Existing technologies use satellite images in the optical range of electromagnetic spectrum. Time series of optical images often contain gaps due to the presence of clouds and haze. A geoinformation technology is created. It allows to fill gaps in time series of optical images (Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, PROBA-V, MODIS) with radar survey data (Sentinel-1) and use information about agrometeorological conditions of the growing season for individual monitoring years. The technology allows to perform crop classification and mapping for spring-summer (winter and spring crops) and autumn-winter (winter crops) periods of vegetation, monitoring the dynamics of crop state seasonal changes, crop yield forecasting. Crop classification is based on supervised classification algorithms, takes into account the peculiarities of crop growth at different vegetation stages (dates of sowing, emergence, active vegetation, and harvesting) and agriculture land state characteristics (row spacing, seedling density, etc.). A catalog of samples of the main agricultural crops (Ukraine) is created and crop spectral signatures are calculated with the preliminary removal of row spacing, cloud cover, and cloud shadows in order to construct time series of crop growth characteristics. The obtained data is used in grain crop growth tracking and in timely detection of growth trends deviations from reference samples of a given crop for a selected date. Statistical models of crop yield forecast are created in the forms of linear and nonlinear interconnections between crop yield indicators and crop state characteristics (temperature, precipitation, vegetation indices, etc.). Predicted values of grain crop yield are evaluated with an accuracy up to 95%. The developed technology was used for agricultural areas monitoring in a number of Great Britain and Ukraine regions using EOS Crop Monitoring Platform (https://crop-monitoring.eos.com). The obtained results allow to conclude that joint use of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images improve separation of winter crops (rapeseed, wheat, barley) in the early stages of vegetation (October-December). It allows to separate successfully the soybean, corn, and sunflower sowing areas that are quite similar in their spectral characteristics.

Keywords: geoinformation technology, crop classification, crop yield prediction, agricultural monitoring, EOS Crop Monitoring Platform

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Authors: Dipendra Kumar Yadav, Nabaraj Paudel, Anjana Yadav

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Background: Low Birth weight (LBW) is defined as the weight at birth less than 2500 grams, irrespective of the period of their gestation. LBW is an important indicator of general health status of population and is considered as the single most important predictors of infant mortality especially of deaths within the first month of life that is birth weight determines the chances of newborn survival. Objective of this study was to identify the maternal risk factors associated with low birth weight neonates. Materials and Methods: A hospital based case-control study was conducted in maternity ward of Manipal Teaching Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal from 23 September 2014 to 12 November 2014. During study period 59 cases were obtained and twice number of control group were selected with frequency matching of the mother`s age with ± 3 years and total controls were 118. Interview schedule was used for data collection along with record review. Data were entered in Epi-data program and analysis was done with help of SPSS software program. Results: From bivariate logistic regression analysis, eighteen variables were found significantly associated with LBW and these were place of residence, family monthly income, education, previous still birth, previous LBW, history of STD, history of vaginal bleeding, anemia, ANC visits, less than four ANC visits, de-worming status, counseling during pregnancy, CVD, physical workload, stress, extra meal during pregnancy, smoking and alcohol consumption status. However after adjusting confounding variables, only six variables were found significantly associated with LBW. Mothers who had family monthly income up to ten thousand rupees were 4.83 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (1.5-40.645) and p value 0.014 compared to mothers whose family income NRs.20,001-60,000. Mothers who had previous still birth were 2.01 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (0.69-5.87) and p value 0.02 compared to mothers who did not has previous still birth. Mothers who had previous LBW were 5.472 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (1.2-24.93) and p value 0.028 compared to mothers who did not has previous LBW. Mothers who had anemia during pregnancy were 3.36 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (0.77-14.57) and p value 0.014 compared to mothers who did not has anemia. Mothers who delivered female newborn were 2.96 times more likely to have LBW with 95% CI (1.27-7.28) and p value 0.01 compared to mothers who deliver male newborn. Mothers who did not get extra meal during pregnancy were 6.04 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (1.11-32.7) and p value 0.037 compared to mothers who getting the extra meal during pregnancy. Mothers who consumed alcohol during pregnancy were 4.83 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (1.57-14.83) and p value 0.006 compared to mothers who did not consumed alcohol during pregnancy. Conclusions: To reduce low birth weight baby through economic empowerment of family and individual women. Prevention and control of anemia during pregnancy is one of the another strategy to control the LBW baby and mothers should take full dose of iron supplements with screening of haemoglobin level. Extra nutritional food should be provided to women during pregnancy. Health promotion program will be focused on avoidance of alcohol and strengthen of health services that leads increasing use of maternity services.

Keywords: low birth weight, case-control, risk factors, hospital based study

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Authors: Shinji Ukita, Naohiro Nakamura, Yuji Miyazu

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In considering the dynamic characteristics of structure, natural frequency and damping ratio are useful indicator. When performing dynamic design, it's necessary to select an appropriate initial damping model and hysteretic model. In the linear region, the setting of initial damping model influences the response, and in the nonlinear region, the combination of initial damping model and hysteretic model influences the response. However, the dynamic characteristics of structure in the nonlinear region remain unclear. In this paper, we studied the effect of setting of initial damping model and hysteretic model on the dynamic characteristics of structure. On initial damping model setting, Initial stiffness proportional, Tangent stiffness proportional, and Rayleigh-type were used. On hysteretic model setting, TAKEDA model and Normal-trilinear model were used. As a study method, dynamic analysis was performed using a lumped mass model of base-fixed. During analysis, the maximum acceleration of input earthquake motion was gradually increased from 1 to 600 gal. The dynamic characteristics were calculated using the ARX model. Then, the characteristics of 1st and 2nd natural frequency and 1st damping ratio were evaluated. Input earthquake motion was simulated wave that the Building Center of Japan has published. On the building model, an RC building with 30×30m planes on each floor was assumed. The story height was 3m and the maximum height was 18m. Unit weight for each floor was 1.0t/m2. The building natural period was set to 0.36sec, and the initial stiffness of each floor was calculated by assuming the 1st mode to be an inverted triangle. First, we investigated the difference of the dynamic characteristics depending on the difference of initial damping model setting. With the increase in the maximum acceleration of the input earthquake motions, the 1st and 2nd natural frequency decreased, and the 1st damping ratio increased. Then, in the natural frequency, the difference due to initial damping model setting was small, but in the damping ratio, a significant difference was observed (Initial stiffness proportional≒Rayleigh type>Tangent stiffness proportional). The acceleration and the displacement of the earthquake response were largest in the tangent stiffness proportional. In the range where the acceleration response increased, the damping ratio was constant. In the range where the acceleration response was constant, the damping ratio increased. Next, we investigated the difference of the dynamic characteristics depending on the difference of hysteretic model setting. With the increase in the maximum acceleration of the input earthquake motions, the natural frequency decreased in TAKEDA model, but in Normal-trilinear model, the natural frequency didn’t change. The damping ratio in TAKEDA model was higher than that in Normal-trilinear model, although, both in TAKEDA model and Normal-trilinear model, the damping ratio increased. In conclusion, in initial damping model setting, the tangent stiffness proportional was evaluated the most. In the hysteretic model setting, TAKEDA model was more appreciated than the Normal-trilinear model in the nonlinear region. Our results would provide useful indicator on dynamic design.

Keywords: initial damping model, damping ratio, dynamic analysis, hysteretic model, natural frequency

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Authors: Ali H. Daraji, Jack M. Hale, Ye Jianqiao

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With the extensive use of high specific strength structures to optimise the loading capacity and material cost in aerospace and most engineering applications, much effort has been expended to develop intelligent structures for active vibration reduction and structural health monitoring. These structures are highly flexible, inherently low internal damping and associated with large vibration and long decay time. The modification of such structures by adding lightweight piezoelectric sensors and actuators at efficient locations integrated with an optimal control scheme is considered an effective solution for structural vibration monitoring and controlling. The size and location of sensor and actuator are important research topics to investigate their effects on the level of vibration detection and reduction and the amount of energy provided by a controller. Several methodologies have been presented to determine the optimal location of a limited number of sensors and actuators for small-scale structures. However, these studies have tackled this problem directly, measuring the fitness function based on eigenvalues and eigenvectors achieved with numerous combinations of sensor/actuator pair locations and converging on an optimal set using heuristic optimisation techniques such as the genetic algorithms. This is computationally expensive for small- and large-scale structures subject to optimise a number of s/a pairs to suppress multiple vibration modes. This paper proposes an efficient method to determine optimal locations for a limited number of sensor/actuator pairs for active vibration reduction of a flexible structure based on finite element method and Hamilton’s principle. The current work takes the simplified approach of modelling a structure with sensors at all locations, subjecting it to an external force to excite the various modes of interest and noting the locations of sensors giving the largest average percentage sensors effectiveness measured by dividing all sensor output voltage over the maximum for each mode. The methodology was implemented for a cantilever plate under external force excitation to find the optimal distribution of six sensor/actuator pairs to suppress the first six modes of vibration. It is shown that the results of the optimal sensor locations give good agreement with published optimal locations, but with very much reduced computational effort and higher effectiveness. Furthermore, it is shown that collocated sensor/actuator pairs placed in these locations give very effective active vibration reduction using optimal linear quadratic control scheme.

Keywords: optimisation, plate, sensor effectiveness, vibration control

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Authors: William Creighton, Jan Smitheram

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Queer discourse has been tied to a middle-class, urban-centric, white approach to the discussion of queerness. In doing so, the multilayeredness of queer existence has been washed away in favour of palatable queer occupation. This paper uses design to explore a queer anti-urbanist approach to facilitate a more egalitarian architectural occupancy. Scott Herring’s work on queer anti-urbanism is key to this approach. Herring redeploys anti-urbanism from its historical understanding of open hostility, rejection and desire to destroy the city towards a mode of queer critique that counters normative ideals of homonormative metronormative gay lifestyles. He questions how queer identity has been closed down into a more diminutive frame where those who do not fit within this frame are subjected to persecution or silenced through their absence. We extend these ideas through design to ask how a queer anti-urbanist approach facilitates a more egalitarian architectural occupancy. Following a “design as research” methodology, the design outputs allow a vehicle to ask how we might live, otherwise, in architectural space. A design as research methodologically is a process of questioning, designing and reflecting – in a non-linear, iterative approach – establishes itself through three projects, each increasing in scale and complexity. Each of the three scales tackled a different body relationship. The project began exploring the relations between body to body, body to known others, and body to unknown others. Moving through increasing scales was not to privilege the objective, the public and the large scale; instead, ‘intra-scaling’ acts as a tool to re-think how scale reproduces normative ideas of the identity of space. There was a queering of scale. Through this approach, the results were an installation that brings two people together to co-author space where the installation distorts the sensory experience and forces a more intimate and interconnected experience challenging our socialized proxemics: knees might touch. To queer the home, the installation was used as a drawing device, a tool to study and challenge spatial perception, drawing convention, and as a way to process practical information about the site and existing house – the device became a tool to embrace the spontaneous. The final design proposal operates as a multi-scalar boundary-crossing through “private” and “public” to support kinship through communal labour, queer relationality and mooring. The resulting design works to set adrift bodies in a sea of sensations through a mix of pleasure programmes. To conclude, through three design proposals, this design research creates a relationship between queer anti-urbanism and design. It asserts that queering the design process and outcome allows a more inclusive way to consider place, space and belonging. The projects lend to a queer relationality and interdependence by making spaces that support the unsettled, out-of-place, but is it queer enough?

Keywords: queer, queer anti-urbanism, design as research, design

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Authors: Celeste E. van Rinsum, Sanne M. P. L. Gerards, Geert M. Rutten, Ien A. M. van de Goor, Stef P. J. Kremers

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Combined lifestyle interventions have shown to be effective in changing and maintaining behavioral lifestyle changes and reducing overweight and obesity. A lifestyle coach is expected to promote lifestyle changes in adults related to physical activity and diet. The present Coaching on Lifestyle (CooL) study examined participants’ physical activity level, dietary behavioral, and motivational changes immediately after the intervention and at 1.5 years after baseline. In CooL intervention a lifestyle coach coaches individuals from eighteen years and older with (a high risk of) obesity in group and individual sessions. In addition a process evaluation was conducted in order to examine the implementation process and to be able to interpret the changes within the participants. This action-oriented research has a pre-post design. Participants of the CooL intervention (N = 200) completed three questionnaires: at baseline, immediately after the intervention (on average after 44 weeks), and at 1.5 years after baseline. T-tests and linear regressions were conducted to test self-reported changes in physical activity (IPAQ), dietary behaviors, their quality of motivation for physical activity (BREQ-3) and for diet (REBS), body mass index (BMI), and quality of life (EQ-5D-3L). For the process evaluation, we used individual and group interviews, observations and document analyses to gain insight in the implementation process (e.g. the recruitment) and how the intervention was valued by the participants, lifestyle coaches, and referrers. The study is currently ongoing and therefore the results presented here are preliminary. On average, the participants that finished the intervention and those that have completed the long-term measurement improved their level of vigorous-intense physical activity, sedentary behavior, sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and BMI. Mixed results were observed in motivational regulation for physical activity and nutrition. Moreover, an improvement on the quality of life dimension anxiety/depression was found, also in the long-term. All the other constructs did not show significant change over time. The results of the process evaluation have shown that recruitment of clients was difficult. Participants evaluated the intervention positively and the lifestyle coaches have continuously adapted the structure and contents of the intervention throughout the study period, based on their experiences and feedback from research. Preliminary results indicate that the CooL-intervention may have beneficial effects on overweight and obese participants in terms of energy balance-related behaviors, weight reduction, and quality of life. Recruitment of participants and embedding the position of the lifestyle coach in traditional care structures is challenging.

Keywords: combined lifestyle intervention, effect evaluation, lifestyle coaching, process evaluation, overweight, the Netherlands

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Authors: Delaram Hosseinioun

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In their collections, Shirin Neshat, Mitra Tabrizian, Gohar Dashti and Newsha Tavakolian adopt a hybrid form of narrative to confront the restrictions imposed on women in hegemonic public and private spaces. Focusing on motives such as social marginalisation, crisis of belonging, as well as lack of agency for women, the artists depict the regression of women’s rights in their respective generations. Based on the ideas of Michael Bakhtin, namely his concept of polyphony or the plurality of contradictory voices, the views of Judith Butler on giving an account to oneself and Henri Leverbre’s theories on social space, this study illustrates the artists’ concept of identity in crisis through time and space. The research explores how the artists took their art as a novel dimension to depict and confront the hardships imposed on Iranian women. Henri Lefebvre makes a distinction between complex social structures through which individuals situate, perceive and represent themselves. By adding Bakhtin’s polyphonic view to Lefebvre’s concepts of perceived and lived spaces, the study explores the sense of social fragmentation in the works of Dashti and Tavakolian. One argument is that as the representatives of the contemporary generation of female artists who spend their lives in Iran and faced a higher degree of restrictions, their hyperbolic and theatrical styles stand as a symbolic act of confrontation against restrictive socio-cultural norms imposed on women. Further, the research explores the possibility of reclaiming one's voice and sense of agency through art, corresponding with the Bakhtinian sense of polyphony and Butler’s concept of giving an account to oneself. Works of Neshat and Tabrizian as the representatives of the previous generation who faced exile and diaspora, encompass a higher degree of misplacement, violence and decay of women’s presence. In Their works, the women’s body encompasses Lefebvre’s dismantled temporal and special setting. Notably, the ongoing social conviction and gender-based dogma imposed on women frame some of the concurrent motives among the selected collections of the four artists. By applying an interdisciplinary lens and integrating the conducted interviews with the artists, the study illustrates how the artists seek a transcultural account for themselves and women in their generations. Further, the selected collections manifest the urgency for an authentic and liberal voice and setting for women, resonating with the concurrent Women, Life, Freedom movement in Iran.

Keywords: persian modern female photographers, transcultural studies, shirin neshat, mitra tabrizian, gohar dashti, newsha tavakolian, butler, bakhtin, lefebvre

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Authors: Yohanna Panshak

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The impact of macroeconomic instability on economic growth and prosperity has been at forefront in many discourses among researchers and policy makers and has generated a lot of controversies over the years. This has generated series of research efforts towards understanding the remote causes of this phenomenon; its nature, determinants and how it can be targeted and mitigated. While others have opined that the root cause of macroeconomic flux in Nigeria is attributed to Oil-Price volatility, others viewed the issue as resulting from some constellation of structural constraints both within and outside the shores of the country. Research works of scholars such as [Akpan (2009), Aliyu (2009), Olomola (2006), etc] argue that oil volatility can determine economic growth or has the potential of doing so. On the contrary, [Darby (1982), Cerralo (2005) etc] share the opinion that it can slow down growth. The earlier argument rest on the understanding that for a net balance of oil exporting economies, price upbeat directly increases real national income through higher export earnings, whereas, the latter allude to the case of net-oil importing countries (which experience price rises, increased input costs, reduced non-oil demand, low investment, fall in tax revenues and ultimately an increase in budget deficit which will further reduce welfare level). Therefore, assessing the precise impact of oil price volatility on virtually any economy is a function of whether it is an oil-exporting or importing nation. Research on oil price volatility and its outcome on the growth of the Nigerian economy are evolving and in a march towards resolving Nigeria’s macroeconomic instability as long as oil revenue still remain the mainstay and driver of socio-economic engineering. Recently, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil- United States made a historic breakthrough in more efficient source of energy for her economy with the capacity of serving significant part of the world. This undoubtedly suggests a threat to the exchange earnings of the country. The need to understand fluctuation in its major export commodity is critical. This paper leans on the Renaissance growth theory with greater focus on theoretical work of Lee (1998); a leading proponent of this school who makes a clear cut of difference between oil price changes and oil price volatility. Based on the above background, the research seeks to empirically examine the impact oil-price volatility on government expenditure using quarterly time series data spanning 1986:1 to 2014:4. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) econometric approach shall be used. The structural properties of the model shall be tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron. Relevant diagnostics tests of heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and normality shall also be carried out. Policy recommendation shall be offered on the empirical findings and believes it assist policy makers not only in Nigeria but the world-over.

Keywords: oil-price, volatility, prosperity, budget, expenditure

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Authors: Shamsulhaq Amin

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Unbound granular materials (UGMs) are pivotal in ensuring long-term quality, especially in the layers under the surface of flexible pavements and other constructions. This study seeks to better understand the behavior of the UGMs by looking at popular models for predicting lasting deformation under various levels of stresses and load cycles. These models focus on variables such as the number of load cycles, stress levels, and features specific to materials and were evaluated on the basis of their ability to accurately predict outcomes. The study showed that these factors play a crucial role in how well the models work. Therefore, the research highlights the need to look at a wide range of stress situations to more accurately predict how much the UGMs bend or shift. The research looked at important factors, like how permanent deformation relates to the number of times a load is applied, how quickly this phenomenon happens, and the shakedown effect, in two different types of UGMs: granite and limestone. A detailed study was done over 100,000 load cycles, which provided deep insights into how these materials behave. In this study, a number of factors, such as the level of stress applied, the number of load cycles, the density of the material, and the moisture present were seen as the main factors affecting permanent deformation. It is vital to fully understand these elements for better designing pavements that last long and handle wear and tear. A series of laboratory tests were performed to evaluate the mechanical properties of materials and acquire model parameters. The testing included gradation tests, CBR tests, and Repeated load triaxial tests. The repeated load triaxial tests were crucial for studying the significant components that affect deformation. This test involved applying various stress levels to estimate model parameters. In addition, certain model parameters were established by regression analysis, and optimization was conducted to improve outcomes. Afterward, the material parameters that were acquired were used to construct graphs for each model. The graphs were subsequently compared to the outcomes obtained from the repeated load triaxial testing. Additionally, the models were evaluated to determine if they demonstrated the two inherent deformation behaviors of materials when subjected to repetitive load: the initial phase, post-compaction, and the second phase volumetric changes. In this study, using log-log graphs was key to making the complex data easier to understand. This method made the analysis clearer and helped make the findings easier to interpret, adding both precision and depth to the research. This research provides important insight into picking the right models for predicting how these materials will act under expected stress and load conditions. Moreover, it offers crucial information regarding the effect of load cycle and permanent deformation as well as the shakedown effect on granite and limestone UGMs.

Keywords: permanent deformation, unbound granular materials, load cycles, stress level

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Authors: Caterina Muzzi, Sergio Albertini, Davide Giacomini

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The research is aimed to investigate the role of young entrepreneurs’ personality traits and their contextual background on the success of entrepreneurial initiatives. In the literature, the debate is still open about the main drivers in predicting entrepreneurial success. Classical theories are focused on looking at specific personality traits that could lead to successful start-ups initiatives, while emerging approaches are more interested in young entrepreneurs’ contextual background (such as the family of origin, the previous experience and their professional network). An online survey was submitted to the participants of an entrepreneurial training initiative organised by the Italian Young Entrepreneurs Association (Confindustria) in Brescia headquarter (AIB). At the time the authors started data collection for this research, the third edition of the initiative was just concluded and involved a total amount of 37 young future entrepreneurs. In the literature General self-efficacy (GSE) and, more specifically, entrepreneurial self-efficacy (ESE) have often been associated to positive performances, as they allow future entrepreneurs to effectively cope with entrepreneurial activities, both at an early stage and in new venture management. In a counter-intuitive manner, optimism is not always associated with entrepreneurial positive results. Too optimistic people risk taking hazardous risks and some authors suggest that moderately optimistic entrepreneurs achieve more positive results than over-optimistic ones. Indeed highly optimistic individuals often hold unrealistic expectations, discount negative information, and mentally reconstruct experiences so as to avoid contradictions The importance of context has been increasingly considered in entrepreneurship literature and its role strongly emerges starting from the earliest entrepreneurial stage and it is crucial to transform the “intention of entrepreneurship” into the actual start-up. Furthermore, coherently with the “network approach to entrepreneurship”, context embeddedness allow future entrepreneurs to leverage relationships built through previous experiences and/or thanks to the fact of belonging to families of entrepreneurs. For the purpose of this research, entrepreneurial success was measured by the fact of having or not founded a new venture after the training initiative. In this research, the authors measured GSE, ESE and optimism using already tested items that showed to be reliable also in this case. They collected 36 completed questionnaires. The t-test for independent samples run to measure significant differences in means between those that already funded the new venture and those that did not. No significant differences emerged with respect to all the tested personality traits, but a logistic regression analysis, run with contextual variables as independent ones, showed that personal and professional networking, made both before and during the master, is the most relevant variable in determining new venture success. These findings shed more light on the process of new venture foundation and could encourage national and local policy makers to invest on networking as one of the main drivers that could support the creation of new ventures.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, networking, new ventures, personality traits

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Authors: Hansraj Bookun, Rachel Xuan, Angela Tan, Kejia Wang, Animesh Singla, David Kim, Christopher Loupos, Jim Iliopoulos

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Introduction: Complex endovascular aortic aneursymal repairs with fenestrated and branched endografts require customised devices to exclude the pathology while reducing morbidity and mortality, which was historically associated with open repair of complex aneurysms. Such endovascular procedures have predominantly been performed in a large volume dedicated tertiary centres. We present here our nine year multidisciplinary experience with this technology in an Australian tertiary centre. Method: This was a cross-sectional, single-centre observational study of 670 patients who had undergone complex endovascular aortic aneurysmal repairs with conventional endografts, fenestrated endografts, and iliac-branched devices from January 2010 to July 2019. Descriptive statistics were used to characterise our sample with regards to demographic and perioperative variables. Homogeneity of the sample was tested using multivariant regression, which did not identify any statistically significant confounding variables. Results: 670 patients of mean age 74, were included (592 males) and the comorbid burden was as follows: ischemic heart disease (55%), diabetes (18%), hypertension (90%), stage four or greater kidney impairment (8%) and current or ex-smoking (78%). The main indications for surgery were elective aneurysms (86%), symptomatic aneurysms (5%), and rupture aneurysms (5%). 106 patients (16%) underwent fenestrated or branched endograft repairs. The mean length of stay was 7.6 days. 2 patients experienced reactionary bleeds, 11 patients had access wound complications (6 lymph fistulae, 5 haematoms), 11 patients had cardiac complications (5 arrhythmias, 3 acute myocadial infarctions, 3 exacerbation of congestive cardiac failure), 10 patients had respiratory complications, 8 patients had renal impairment, 4 patients had gastrointestinal complications, 2 patients suffered from paraplegia, 1 major stroke, 1 minor stroke, and 1 acute brain syndrome. There were 4 vascular occlusions requiring further arterial surgery, 4 type I endoleaks, 4 type II endoleaks, 3 episodes of thromboembolism, and 2 patients who required further arterial operations in the setting of patient vessels. There were 9 unplanned returns to the theatre. Discussion: Our numbers of 10 years suggest that we are not a dedicated high volume centre focusing on aortic repairs. However, we have achieved significantly low complication rates. This can be attributed to our multidisciplinary approach with the intraoperative involvement of skilled interventional radiologists and vascular surgeons as well as postoperative protocols with particular attention to spinal cord protection. Additionally, we have a ratified perioperative pathway that involves multidisciplinary team discussions of patient-related factors and lesion-centered characteristics, which allows for holistic, patient-centered care.

Keywords: aneurysm, aortic, endovascular, fenestrated

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Authors: Vinay A. Sharma, Shiva Prasad H. C.

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The initial stages of any project are often observed to be in a mixed set of conditions. Setting up the project is a tough task, but taking the initial decisions is rather not complex, as some of the critical factors are yet to be introduced into the scenario. These simple initial decisions potentially shape the timeline and subsequent events that might later be plotted on it. Proceeding towards the solution for a problem is the primary objective in the initial stages. The optimization in the solutions can come later, and hence, the resources deployed towards attaining the solution are higher than what they would have been in the optimized versions. A ‘logic’ that counters the problem is essentially the core of the desired solution. Thus, if the problem is solved, the deployment of resources has led to the required logic being attained. As the project proceeds along, the individuals working on the project face fresh challenges as a team and are better accustomed to their surroundings. The developed, optimized solutions are then considered for implementation, as the individuals are now experienced, and know better of the consequences and causes of possible failure, and thus integrate the adequate tolerances wherever required. Furthermore, as the team graduates in terms of strength, acquires prodigious knowledge, and begins its efficient transfer, the individuals in charge of the project along with the managers focus more on the optimized solutions rather than the traditional ones to minimize the required resources. Hence, as time progresses, the authorities prioritize attainment of the required logic, at a lower amount of dedicated resources. For empirical analysis of the stated theory, leaders and key figures in organizations are surveyed for their ideas on appropriate logic required for tackling a problem. Key-pointers spotted in successfully implemented solutions are noted from the analysis of the responses and a metric for measuring logic is developed. A graph is plotted with the quantifiable logic on the Y-axis, and the dedicated resources for the solutions to various problems on the X-axis. The dedicated resources are plotted over time, and hence the X-axis is also a measure of time. In the initial stages of the project, the graph is rather linear, as the required logic will be attained, but the consumed resources are also high. With time, the authorities begin focusing on optimized solutions, since the logic attained through them is higher, but the resources deployed are comparatively lower. Hence, the difference between consecutive plotted ‘resources’ reduces and as a result, the slope of the graph gradually increases. On an overview, the graph takes a parabolic shape (beginning on the origin), as with each resource investment, ideally, the difference keeps on decreasing, and the logic attained through the solution keeps increasing. Even if the resource investment is higher, the managers and authorities, ideally make sure that the investment is being made on a proportionally high logic for a larger problem, that is, ideally the slope of the graph increases with the plotting of each point.

Keywords: decision-making, leadership, logic, strategic management

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Authors: Sempiga Olivier, Dominika Latusek-Jurczak

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The conflict in Ukraine has had far-reaching economic consequences, not only for the countries directly involved in it but also for their trading partners and allies, and on the global economy in general. Different European Union (EU) countries, being some of Ukraine and Russia's major trading partners, have also felt the impact of the conflict on their economy. In a special way, the energy sector has suffered the most due to the fact that Russia is a huge exporter of gas and other energy sources on which rely European countries. Energy is a locomotive of the economy and once energy prices skyrocket there is a spill over effects in other areas causing different commodities’ prices to rise thereby affecting people’s social economic lifestyles. To minimise the impact energy crisis’ socio-political and economic consequences, the EU and countries have tightened their regulatory mechanisms to stop some energy firms exploit the crisis at the expense of the vulnerable mass. The key question is to what extent these regulatory instruments put in place during the energy crisis times have an affect on citizen trust in the governing institutions. The question is of paramount importance after years of declining trust in the EU and in most countries in Europe. Earlier research have analysed how wars or global political risks relate to citizen trust in government and organizations but very few empirical research have examined the relationship between regulatory instruments during the time of crisis on citizen trust in government and institutions. Using data from INSEE (the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) and European Social Survey (ESS), it carry out a multilinear regression analysis and investigate the impact of regulation both from the EU and different countries on energy prices on citizen trust. To understand the dynamics between regulatory actions during crises and citizen trust, this study draws on the theoretical framework of institutional trust and regulatory legitimacy. Institutional trust theory posits that citizens’ trust in government and institutions is influenced by perceptions of fairness, transparency, and efficacy in governance. Regulatory legitimacy, a related concept, suggests that regulatory measures, especially in response to crises, are more effective when perceived as just, necessary, and in the public interest. Results of this cross sectional study show that regulatory frameworks strongly affect the levels of trust, the association varying from strong to moderate depending on countries and period. This study contributes to the understanding of the vital relationship between regulatory measures implemented during crises and citizen trust in government institutions. By identifying the conditions under which trust is fostered or eroded, the findings provide policymakers with valuable insights into effective strategies for enhancing public confidence, ultimately guiding interventions that can mitigate the socio-political impacts of future energy crises.

Keywords: energy crisis, price, regulation, russia-Ukraine conflict, trust

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Authors: Abderrazak Bannari, Ghadeer Kadhem

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The objectives of this paper are the validation and the evaluation of MBES-CARIS BASE surface data performance for bathymetric mapping of shallow water in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The latter is an archipelago with a total land area of about 765.30 km², approximately 126 km of coastline and 8,000 km² of marine area, located in the Arabian Gulf, east of Saudi Arabia and west of Qatar (26° 00’ N, 50° 33’ E). To achieve our objectives, bathymetric attributed grid files (X, Y, and depth) generated from the coverage of ship-track MBSE data with 300 x 300 m cells, processed with CARIS-HIPS, were downloaded from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). Then, brought into ArcGIS and converted into a raster format following five steps: Exportation of GEBCO BASE surface data to the ASCII file; conversion of ASCII file to a points shape file; extraction of the area points covering the water boundary of the Kingdom of Bahrain and multiplying the depth values by -1 to get the negative values. Then, the simple Kriging method was used in ArcMap environment to generate a new raster bathymetric grid surface of 30×30 m cells, which was the basis of the subsequent analysis. Finally, for validation purposes, 2200 bathymetric points were extracted from a medium scale nautical map (1:100 000) considering different depths over the Bahrain national water boundary. The nautical map was scanned, georeferenced and overlaid on the MBES-CARIS generated raster bathymetric grid surface (step 5 above), and then homologous depth points were selected. Statistical analysis, expressed as a linear error at the 95% confidence level, showed a strong correlation coefficient (R² = 0.96) and a low RMSE (± 0.57 m) between the nautical map and derived MBSE-CARIS depths if we consider only the shallow areas with depths of less than 10 m (about 800 validation points). When we consider only deeper areas (> 10 m) the correlation coefficient is equal to 0.73 and the RMSE is equal to ± 2.43 m while if we consider the totality of 2200 validation points including all depths, the correlation coefficient is still significant (R² = 0.81) with satisfactory RMSE (± 1.57 m). Certainly, this significant variation can be caused by the MBSE that did not completely cover the bottom in several of the deeper pockmarks because of the rapid change in depth. In addition, steep slopes and the rough seafloor probably affect the acquired MBSE raw data. In addition, the interpolation of missed area values between MBSE acquisition swaths-lines (ship-tracked sounding data) may not reflect the true depths of these missed areas. However, globally the results of the MBES-CARIS data are very appropriate for bathymetric mapping of shallow water areas.

Keywords: bathymetry mapping, multibeam echosounder systems, CARIS-HIPS, shallow water

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Authors: Anchal Rana

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Indian Himalayas with their diverse climatic conditions are home to many rare and endangered medicinal flora. One such species is Polygonatum verticillatum Linn., popularly known as King Solomon’s Seal or Solomon’s Seal. Its mention as an incredible medicinal herb comes from 5000 years ago in Indian Materia Medica as a component of Ashtavarga, a poly-herbal formulation comprising of eight herbs illustrated as world’s first ever revitalizing and rejuvenating nutraceutical food, which is now commercialised in the name ‘Chaywanprash’. It is an erect tall (60 to 120 cm) perennial herb with sessile, linear leaves and white pendulous flowers. The species grows well in an altitude range of 1600 to 3600 m amsl, and propagates mostly through rhizomes. The rhizomes are potential source for significant phytochemicals like flavonoids, phenolics, lectins, terpenoids, allantoin, diosgenin, β-Sitosterol and quinine. The presence of such phytochemicals makes the species an asset for antioxidant, cardiotonic, demulcent, diuretic, energizer, emollient, aphrodisiac, appetizer, glactagogue, etc. properties. Having profound concentrations of macro and micronutrients, species has fine prospects of being used as a diet supplement. However, due to unscientific and gregarious uprooting, it has been assigned a status of ‘vulnerable’ and ‘endangered’ in the Conservation Assessment and Management Plan (CAMP) process conducted by Foundation for Revitalisation of Local Health Traditions (FRLHT) during 2010, according to IUCN Red-List Criteria. Further, destructive harvesting, land use disturbances, heavy livestock grazing, climatic changes and habitat fragmentation have substantially contributed towards anomaly of the species. It, therefore, became imperative to conserve the diversity of the species and make judicious use in future research and commercial programme and schemes. A Gene Bank was therefore established at High Altitude Herbal Garden of the Forest Research Institute, Dehradun, India situated at Chakarata (30042’52.99’’N, 77051’36.77’’E, 2205 m amsl) consisting 149 accessions collected from thirty-one geographical locations spread over three Himalayan States of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. The present investigations purport towards sampling and collection of divergent germplasm followed by planting and cultivation techniques. The ultimate aim is thereby focussed on analysing genetic diversity of the species and capturing promising genotypes for carrying out further genetic improvement programme so to contribute towards sustainable development and healthcare.

Keywords: Polygonatum verticillatum Linn., phytochemicals, genetic diversity, conservation, gene bank

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Authors: Dada Durojaye Joshua

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The study examined the combined effect of internal control system and whistle blowing policy while it pursues the following specific objectives, which are to: examine the relationship between monitoring activities and fraud’s detection and prevention; investigate the effect of control activities on fraud’s detection and prevention in Nigerian Deposit Money Banks (DMBs). The population of the study comprises the 89,275 members of staff in the 20 DMBs in Nigeria as at June 2019. Purposive and convenient sampling techniques were used in the selection of the 80 members of staff at the supervisory level of the Internal Audit Departments of the head offices of the sampled banks, that is, selecting 4 respondents (Audit Executive/Head, Internal Control; Manager, Operation Risk Management; Head, Financial Crime Control; the Chief Compliance Officer) from each of the 20 DMBs in Nigeria. A standard questionnaire was adapted from 2017/2018 Internal Control Questionnaire and Assessment, Bureau of Financial Monitoring and Accountability Florida Department of Economic Opportunity. It was modified to serve the purpose for which it was meant to serve. It was self-administered to gather data from the 80 respondents at the respective headquarters of the sampled banks at their respective locations across Nigeria. Two likert-scales was used in achieving the stated objectives. A logit regression was used in analysing the stated hypotheses. It was found that effect of monitoring activities using the construct of conduct of ongoing or separate evaluation (COSE), evaluation and communication of deficiencies (ECD) revealed that monitoring activities is significant and positively related to fraud’s detection and prevention in Nigerian DMBS. So also, it was found that control activities using selection and development of control activities (SDCA), selection and development of general controls over technology to prevent financial fraud (SDGCTF), development of control activities that gives room for transparency through procedures that put policies into actions (DCATPPA) contributed to influence fraud detection and prevention in the Nigerian DMBs. In addition, it was found that transparency, accountability, reliability, independence and value relevance have significant effect on fraud detection and prevention ibn Nigerian DMBs. The study concluded that the board of directors demonstrated independence from management and exercises oversight of the development and performance of internal control. Part of the conclusion was that there was accountability on the part of the owners and preparers of the financial reports and that the system gives room for the members of staff to account for their responsibilities. Among the recommendations was that the management of Nigerian DMBs should create and establish a standard Internal Control System strong enough to deter fraud in order to encourage continuity of operations by ensuring liquidity, solvency and going concern of the banks. It was also recommended that the banks create a structure that encourages whistleblowing to complement the internal control system.

Keywords: internal control, whistleblowing, deposit money banks, fraud prevention, fraud detection

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Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone

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Authors: Dada Durojaye Joshua

Abstract:

The study examined the combined effect of internal control system and whistle blowing policy while it pursues the following specific objectives, which are to: examine the relationship between monitoring activities and fraud’s detection and prevention; investigate the effect of control activities on fraud’s detection and prevention in Nigerian Deposit Money Banks (DMBs). The population of the study comprises the 89,275 members of staff in the 20 DMBs in Nigeria as at June 2019. Purposive and convenient sampling techniques were used in the selection of the 80 members of staff at the supervisory level of the Internal Audit Departments of the head offices of the sampled banks, that is, selecting 4 respondents (Audit Executive/Head, Internal Control; Manager, Operation Risk Management; Head, Financial Crime Control; the Chief Compliance Officer) from each of the 20 DMBs in Nigeria. A standard questionnaire was adapted from 2017/2018 Internal Control Questionnaire and Assessment, Bureau of Financial Monitoring and Accountability Florida Department of Economic Opportunity. It was modified to serve the purpose for which it was meant to serve. It was self-administered to gather data from the 80 respondents at the respective headquarters of the sampled banks at their respective locations across Nigeria. Two likert-scales was used in achieving the stated objectives. A logit regression was used in analysing the stated hypotheses. It was found that effect of monitoring activities using the construct of conduct of ongoing or separate evaluation (COSE), evaluation and communication of deficiencies (ECD) revealed that monitoring activities is significant and positively related to fraud’s detection and prevention in Nigerian DMBS. So also, it was found that control activities using selection and development of control activities (SDCA), selection and development of general controls over technology to prevent financial fraud (SDGCTF), development of control activities that gives room for transparency through procedures that put policies into actions (DCATPPA) contributed to influence fraud detection and prevention in the Nigerian DMBs. In addition, it was found that transparency, accountability, reliability, independence and value relevance have significant effect on fraud detection and prevention ibn Nigerian DMBs. The study concluded that the board of directors demonstrated independence from management and exercises oversight of the development and performance of internal control. Part of the conclusion was that there was accountability on the part of the owners and preparers of the financial reports and that the system gives room for the members of staff to account for their responsibilities. Among the recommendations was that the management of Nigerian DMBs should create and establish a standard Internal Control System strong enough to deter fraud in order to encourage continuity of operations by ensuring liquidity, solvency and going concern of the banks. It was also recommended that the banks create a structure that encourages whistleblowing to complement the internal control system.

Keywords: internal control, whistleblowing, deposit money banks, fraud prevention, fraud detection

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Authors: M. Shukry

Abstract:

According to the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights in 1948, every human being is entitled to rights in life that should be respected by others and protected by the state and community. Such rights are inherent regardless of colour, ethnicity, gender, religion or otherwise, and it is expected that all humans alike have the right to live without discrimination of any sort. However, that has not been the case with Aborigines in Australia. Over a long period of time, the governments of the State and the Territories and the Australian Commonwealth denied the Aboriginal and Indigenous inhabitants of the Torres Strait Islands such rights. Past Australian governments set policies and laws that enabled them to forcefully remove Indigenous children from their parents, which resulted in creating lost generations living the trauma of the loss of cultural identity, alienation and even their own selfhood. Intending to reduce that population of natives and their Aboriginal culture while, on the other hand, assimilate them into mainstream society, they gave themselves the right to remove them from their families with no hope of return. That practice has led to tragic consequences due to the trauma that has affected those children, an experience that is depicted by Jane Harrison in her play Stolen. The drama is the outcome of a six-year project on lost children and which was first performed in 1997 in Melbourne. Five actors only appear on the stage, playing the role of all the different characters, whether the main protagonists or the remaining cast, present or non-present ones as voices. The play outlines the life of five children who have been taken from their parents at an early age, entailing a disastrous negative impact that differs from one to the other. Unknown to each other, what connects between them is being put in a children’s home. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the play’s text in light of the 1948 Declaration of Human Rights, using it as a lens that reflects the atrocities practiced against the Aborigines. It highlights how such practices formed an outrageous violation of those natives’ rights as human beings. Harrison’s dramatic technique in conveying the children’s experiences is through a non-linear structure, fluctuating between past and present that are linked together within each of the five characters, reflecting their suffering and pain to create an emotional link between them and the audience. Her dramatic handling of the issue by fusing tragedy with humour as well as symbolism is a successful technique in revealing the traumatic memory of those children and their present life. The play has made a difference in commencing to address the problem of the right of all children to be with their families, which renders the real meaning of having a home and an identity as people.

Keywords: aboriginal, audience, Australia, children, culture, drama, home, human rights, identity, Indigenous, Jane Harrison, memory, scenic effects, setting, stage, stage directions, Stolen, trauma

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Tianyu Wang, Nikita Karandikar

Abstract:

The uncertainty around cost, safety, and feasibility of the decarbonized shipping fuels has made it increasingly complex for the shipping companies to set pricing strategies and forecast their freight revenues going forward. The increase in the green fuel surcharges will ultimately influence the automobile’s consumer prices. The auto shipping demand (ton-miles) has been gradually shifting from long-haul to short-sea trade over the past years following the relocation of the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing to regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. The objective of this paper is twofold: 1) to investigate the car-carriers freight revenue development over the years when the trade pattern is gradually shifting towards short-sea exports 2) to empirically identify the quantitative impact of such trade pattern shifting to mainly freight rate, but also vessel size, fleet size as well as Green House Gas (GHG) emission in Roll on-Roll Off (Ro-Ro) shipping. In this paper, a model of analyzing and forecasting ton-miles and freight revenues for the trade routes of AS-NA (Asia to North America), EU-NA (Europe to North America), and SA-NA (South America to North America) is established by deploying Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and the financial results of a selected car carrier company. More specifically, Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WALWIL), the Norwegian Ro-Ro carrier listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, is selected as the case study company in this paper. AIS-based ton-mile datasets of WALWIL vessels that are sailing into North America region from three different origins (Asia, Europe, and South America), together with WALWIL’s quarterly freight revenues as reported in trade segments, will be investigated and compared for the past five years (2018-2022). Furthermore, ordinary‐least‐square (OLS) regression is utilized to construct the ton-mile demand and freight revenue forecasting. The determinants of trade pattern shifting, such as import tariffs following the China-US trade war and fuel prices following the 0.1% Emission Control Areas (ECA) zone requirement after IMO2020 will be set as key variable inputs to the machine learning model. The model will be tested on another newly listed Norwegian Car Carrier, Hoegh Autoliner, to forecast its 2022 financial results and to validate the accuracy based on its actual results. GHG emissions on the three routes will be compared and discussed based on a constant emission per mile assumption and voyage distances. Our findings will provide important insights about 1) the trade-off evaluation between revenue reduction and energy saving with the new ton-mile pattern and 2) how the trade flow shifting would influence the future need for the vessel and fleet size.

Keywords: AIS, automobile exports, maritime big data, trade flows

Procedia PDF Downloads 120