Search results for: markov chain monte carlo

Authors: Abdikarim Barqadle Igale

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to find out the indicators of excellent supply chain management based on game theory. The study employed a survey design to collect data. A total of 268 respondents participated in this research. The results indicate that both companies (Coca-cola & Yousran International) managed to effectively use the physical and information flows but were different from the focus on the items in the two key areas. The Coca-cola, for instance, sustained to utilize the flows of excellent planning, starting from row materials, timing, transformation, transportation, and storage of goods to reach consumer’s hands on one side and solid linkage to strategic partners to plan and work together for long-term control of better day-to-day supply chains of goods and materials down to customers’ consumption on the other. Meanwhile, the Yousran International heavily concentrated on the physical side with moderate rapports with strategic partners for long-term improvement on supply chain. The study proposes that strong combination of effective use of both physical and information flows are good indicators of better supply chain management in today’s emerging companies.

Keywords: game theory, physical flow, supply chain management, indicators

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Victoria Siriaki Jorry, I. S. Mbalawata, Hayong Shin

Abstract:

The main objective in a change detection problem is to develop algorithms for efficient detection of gradual and/or abrupt changes in the parameter distribution of a process or time series data. In this paper, we present a modified cumulative (MCUSUM) algorithm to detect the start and end of a time-varying linear drift in mean value of a time series data based on likelihood ratio test procedure. The design, implementation and performance of the proposed algorithm for a linear drift detection is evaluated and compared to the existing CUSUM algorithm using different performance measures. An approach to accurately approximate the threshold of the MCUSUM is also provided. Performance of the MCUSUM for gradual change-point detection is compared to that of standard cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart designed for abrupt shift detection using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of the expected time for detection, the MCUSUM procedure is found to have a better performance than a standard CUSUM chart for detection of the gradual change in mean. The algorithm is then applied and tested to a randomly generated time series data with a gradual linear trend in mean to demonstrate its usefulness.

Keywords: average run length, CUSUM control chart, gradual change detection, likelihood ratio test

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Randolf Von N. Salindo

Abstract:

The study was conducted to measure the logistics integration capabilities of selected companies in the Bahrain construction industry using the Supply Chain 2000 framework; and, determine the extent and direction of influence of these logistics capabilities and integration competencies on the supply chain performance of the firm. A total of 50 executive respondents (from supervisor to managing director level) from 22 construction and construction supplier firms participated in the study from September to November 2014. The results reveal that respondent Bahraini construction firms have significantly lower levels of logistics capabilities, but higher levels of logistics integration competencies compared to international benchmarks. Using stepwise multiple regression analysis, eight logistics capabilities of Bahraini constructions firms were identified to be positively associated with firm performance; with comprehensive metrics as the most positively dominant influential logistics capability. Activity based and total cost methodology is found to be the most negatively dominant influential logistics capability. In terms of logistics integration competencies, the study revealed that that customer integration, internal integration, and, measurement integration are negatively associated with firm performance. There was no logistics integration competency found to be positively associated with the supply chain performance among the companies who participated in the study. The research reveals that there are areas for improvement in supply chain capabilities and logistics integration competencies of the construction firms in the Kingdom of Bahrain to improve their supply chain performance to a global level.

Keywords: comprehensive metrics, customer integration, logistics integration capabilities, logistics integration competencies

Procedia PDF Downloads 642

Authors: Ali Ben Abbes, Imed Riadh Farah

Abstract:

Due to the considerable advances in Multi-Temporal Satellite Images (MTSI), remote sensing application became more accurate. Recently, many advances in modeling MTSI are developed using various models. The purpose of this article is to present an overview of studies using Hidden Markov Model (HMM). First of all, we provide a background of using HMM and their applications in this context. A comparison of the different works is discussed, and possible areas and challenges are highlighted. Secondly, we discussed the difference on vegetation monitoring as well as urban growth. Nevertheless, most research efforts have been used only stationary data. From another point of view, in this paper, we describe a new non-stationarity HMM, that is defined with a set of parts of the time series e.g. seasonal, trend and random. In addition, a new approach giving more accurate results and improve the applicability of the HMM in modeling a non-stationary data series. In order to assess the performance of the HMM, different experiments are carried out using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI time series of the northwestern region of Tunisia and Landsat time series of tres Cantos-Madrid in Spain.

Keywords: multi-temporal satellite image, HMM , nonstationarity, vegetation, urban

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Chattrarat Hotrawaisaya

Abstract:

This research aims to formulate the logistics collaborative model which is the management tool for orchid flower exporter. The researchers study logistics activities in orchid supply chain that stakeholders can collaborate and develop, including demand forecasting, inventory management, warehouse and storage, order-processing, and transportation management. The research also explores logistics collaboration implementation into orchid’s stakeholders. The researcher collected data before implementation and after model implementation. Consequently, the costs and efficiency were calculated and compared between pre and post period of implementation. The research found that the results of applying the logistics collaborative model to orchid exporter reduces inventory cost and transport cost. The model also improves forecasting accuracy, and synchronizes supply chain of exporter. This research paper contributes the uniqueness logistics collaborative model which value to orchid industry in Thailand. The orchid exporters may use this model as their management tool which aims in competitive advantage.

Keywords: logistics, orchid, supply chain, collaboration

Procedia PDF Downloads 437

Authors: Maryam Ziaee, Himanshu Shee, Amrik Sohal

Abstract:

Big Data Analytics (BDA) in supply chain management has recently drawn the attention of academics and practitioners. Big data refers to a massive amount of data from different sources, in different formats, generated at high speed through transactions in business environments and supply chain networks. Traditional statistical tools and techniques find it difficult to analyse this massive data. BDA can assist organisations to capture, store, and analyse data specifically in the field of supply chain. Currently, there is a paucity of research on BDA in the pharmaceutical supply chain context. In this research, the Australian pharmaceutical supply chain was selected as the case study. This industry is highly significant since the right medicine must reach the right patients, at the right time, in right quantity, in good condition, and at the right price to save lives. However, drug shortages remain a substantial problem for hospitals across Australia with implications on patient care, staff resourcing, and expenditure. Furthermore, a massive volume and variety of data is generated at fast speed from multiple sources in pharmaceutical supply chain, which needs to be captured and analysed to benefit operational decisions at every stage of supply chain processes. As the pharmaceutical industry lags behind other industries in using BDA, it raises the question of whether the use of BDA can improve transparency among pharmaceutical supply chain by enabling the partners to make informed-decisions across their operational activities. This presentation explores the impacts of BDA on supply chain management. An exploratory qualitative approach was adopted to analyse data collected through interviews. This study also explores the BDA potential in the whole pharmaceutical supply chain rather than focusing on a single entity. Twenty semi-structured interviews were undertaken with top managers in fifteen organisations (five pharmaceutical manufacturers, five wholesalers/distributors, and five public hospital pharmacies) to investigate their views on the use of BDA. The findings revealed that BDA can enable pharmaceutical entities to have improved visibility over the whole supply chain and also the market; it enables entities, especially manufacturers, to monitor consumption and the demand rate in real-time and make accurate demand forecasts which reduce drug shortages. Timely and precise decision-making can allow the entities to source and manage their stocks more effectively. This can likely address the drug demand at hospitals and respond to unanticipated issues such as drug shortages. Earlier studies explore BDA in the context of clinical healthcare; however, this presentation investigates the benefits of BDA in the Australian pharmaceutical supply chain. Furthermore, this research enhances managers’ insight into the potentials of BDA at every stage of supply chain processes and helps to improve decision-making in their supply chain operations. The findings will turn the rhetoric of data-driven decision into a reality where the managers may opt for analytics for improved decision-making in the supply chain processes.

Keywords: big data analytics, data-driven decision, pharmaceutical industry, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: H. R. Kamali, A. Sadegheih, M. A. Vahdat-Zad, H. Khademi-Zare

Abstract:

In this paper, a single product, multi-echelon, multi-period closed loop supply chain is surveyed, including a variety of costs, time conditions, and capacities, to plan and determine the values and time of the components procurement, production, distribution, recycling and disposal specially for high-tech products that undergo a decreasing production cost and sale price over time. For this purpose, the mathematic model of the problem that is a kind of mixed integer linear programming is presented, and it is finally proved that the problem belongs to the category of NP-hard problems.

Keywords: closed loop supply chain, continuous price decrease, NP-hard, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: K. Shiba, T. Kaburagi, Y. Kurihara

Abstract:

With global aging, people who require care, such as people with dementia (PwD), are increasing within many developed countries. And PwDs may wander and unconsciously set foot outdoors, it may lead serious accidents, such as, traffic accidents. Here, round-the-clock monitoring by caregivers is necessary, which can be a burden for the caregivers. Therefore, an automatic wandering detection system is required when an elderly person wanders outdoors, in which case the detection system transmits a ‘moving’ followed by an ‘absence’ state. In this paper, we focus on the transition from the ‘resting’ to the ‘absence’ state, via the ‘moving’ state as one of the wandering transitions. To capture the transition of the three states, our method based on the hidden Markov model (HMM) is built. Using our method, the restraint where the ‘resting’ state and ‘absence’ state cannot be transmitted to each other is applied. To validate our method, we conducted the experiment with 10 subjects. Our results show that the method can classify three states with 0.92 accuracy.

Keywords: wander, microwave Doppler sensor, respiratory frequency band, the state transition, hidden Markov model (HMM).

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Hiroaki Nasu, Ryota Miyamoto, Yuta Kodera, Yasuyuki Nogami

Abstract:

To promote Industry 4.0 and Society 5.0 and so on, it is important to connect and share data so that every member can trust it. Blockchain (BC) technology is currently attracting attention as the most advanced tool and has been used in the financial field and so on. However, the data collaboration using BC has not progressed sufficiently among companies on the supply chain of manufacturing industry that handle sensitive data such as product quality, manufacturing conditions, etc. There are two main reasons why data utilization is not sufficiently advanced in the industrial supply chain. The first reason is that manufacturing information is top secret and a source for companies to generate profits. It is difficult to disclose data even between companies with transactions in the supply chain. In the blockchain mechanism such as Bitcoin using PKI (Public Key Infrastructure), in order to confirm the identity of the company that has sent the data, the plaintext must be shared between the companies. Another reason is that the merits (scenarios) of collaboration data between companies are not specifically specified in the industrial supply chain. For these problems this paper proposes a Business to Business (B2B) collaboration system using homomorphic encryption and BC technique. Using the proposed system, each company on the supply chain can exchange confidential information on encrypted data and utilize the data for their own business. In addition, this paper considers a scenario focusing on quality data, which was difficult to collaborate because it is a top secret. In this scenario, we show a implementation scheme and a benefit of concrete data collaboration by proposing a comparison protocol that can grasp the change in quality while hiding the numerical value of quality data.

Keywords: business to business data collaboration, industrial supply chain, blockchain, homomorphic encryption

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Hong-Yi Lin, Feng-Tyan Lin

Abstract:

In a Bike-sharing system (BSS), users can easily rent bikes from any station in the city for mid-range or short-range trips. BSS can also be integrated with other types of transport system, especially Green Transportation system, such as rail transport, bus etc. Since BSS records time and place of each pickup and return, the operational data can reflect more authentic and dynamic state of user behaviors. Furthermore, land uses around docking stations are highly associated with origins and destinations for the BSS users. As urban researchers, what concerns us more is to take BSS into consideration during the urban planning process and enhance the quality of urban life. This research focuses on the simulation of travel behavior of BSS users in Kaohsiung. First, rules of users’ behavior were derived by analyzing operational data and land use patterns nearby docking stations. Then, integrating with Monte Carlo method, these rules were embedded into a travel behavior simulation model, which was implemented by NetLogo, an agent-based modeling tool. The simulation model allows us to foresee the rent-return behaviour of BSS in order to choose potential locations of the docking stations. Also, it can provide insights and recommendations about planning and policies for the future BSS.

Keywords: agent-based model, bike-sharing system, BSS operational data, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Sajjad Farahani, Wilkistar Otieno, Xiaohang Yue

Abstract:

This paper develops a model for the optimal disposition decision for product returns in a remanufacturing system with limited recoverable inventory capacity. In this model, a constant demand is satisfied by remanufacturing returned products which are up to the minimum required quality grade. The quality grade of returned products is uncertain and remanufacturing cost increases as the quality level decreases, and remanufacturer wishes to determine which returned product to accept to be remanufactured for reselling, and any unaccepted returns may be salvaged at a value that increases with their quality level. Accepted returns can be stocked for remanufacturing upon demand requests, but incur a holding cost. A Markov decision problem is formulated in order to evaluate various performance measures for this system and obtain the optimal remanufacturing policy. A detailed numerical study reveals that our approach to the disposition problem outperforms the current industrial practice ignoring quality grade of returned products. In addition, we identify conditions under which this improvement is the highest.

Keywords: green supply chain management, matrix geometric method, production recovery, reverse supply chains

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

Abstract:

Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: probability-based damage detection (PBDD), Kriging, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, artificial intelligence, enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: V. Jagadeesh, K. Venkata Subbaiah, P. Govinda Rao

Abstract:

This paper explaining about the significance of information technology tools and software packages in supply chain management (SCM) in order to manage the entire supply chain. Managing materials flow and financial flow and information flow effectively and efficiently with the aid of information technology tools and packages in order to deliver right quantity with right quality of goods at right time by using right methods and technology. Information technology plays a vital role in streamlining the sales forecasting and demand planning and Inventory control and transportation in supply networks and finally deals with production planning and scheduling. It achieves the objectives by streamlining the business process and integrates within the enterprise and its extended enterprise. SCM starts with customer and it involves sequence of activities from customer, retailer, distributor, manufacturer and supplier within the supply chain framework. It is the process of integrating demand planning and supply network planning and production planning and control. Forecasting indicates the direction for planning raw materials in order to meet the production planning requirements. Inventory control and transportation planning allocate the optimal or economic order quantity by utilizing shortest possible routes to deliver the goods to the customer. Production planning and control utilize the optimal resources mix in order to meet the capacity requirement planning. The above operations can be achieved by using appropriate information technology tools and software packages for the supply chain management.

Keywords: supply chain management, information technology, business process, extended enterprise

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Clarinda V. Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

Abstract:

Weather Derivatives are financial instruments used to cover non-catastrophic weather events and can be expressed in the form of standard or plain vanilla products, structured or exotics products. The underlying asset, in this case, is the weather index, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and snowfall. The complexity of the Weather Derivatives structure shows the weakness of the Black Scholes framework. Therefore, under the risk-neutral probability measure, the option price of a weather contract can be given as a unique solution of a two-dimensional partial differential equation (parabolic in one direction and hyperbolic in other directions), with an initial condition and subjected to adequate boundary conditions. To calculate the price of the option, one can use numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo simulations and implicit finite difference schemes conjugated with Semi-Lagrangian methods. This paper is proposed two explicit methods, namely, first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with Lax-Wendroff in the parabolic direction and first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with second-order upwind in the parabolic direction. One of the advantages of these methods is the fact that they take into consideration the boundary conditions obtained from the financial interpretation and deal efficiently with the different choices of the convection coefficients.

Keywords: incomplete markets, numerical methods, partial differential equations, stochastic process, weather derivatives

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Shan Jia, Jinbao Chen, Jinhua Zhou, Jiacheng Qian

Abstract:

In response to the functional limitations of the fixed landers, those are to expand the detection range by the use of wheeled rovers with unavoidable path-repeatability in deep space exploration currently, a movable lander based on the leg-foot walking mechanism is presented. Firstly, a quadruped landing mechanism based on pushrod-damping is proposed. The configuration is of the bionic characteristics such as hip, knee and ankle joints, and the multi-function main/auxiliary buffers based on the crumple-energy absorption and screw-nut mechanism. Secondly, the workspace of the end of the leg-foot mechanism is solved by Monte Carlo method, and the key points on the desired trajectory of the end of the leg-foot mechanism are fitted by cubic spline curve. Finally, an optimal time-jerk trajectory based on weight coefficient is planned and analyzed by an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA). The simulation results prove the rationality and stability of walking motion of the movable leg-foot lander in the star catalogue. In addition, this research can also provide a technical solution integrating of soft-landing, large-scale inspection and material transfer for future star catalogue exploration, and can even serve as the technical basis for developing the reusable landers.

Keywords: motion performance, trajectory planning, movable, leg-foot lander

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Jeaha Yang, Ahmed Khan, Donna L. Rodela, Mohammed A. Qaudeer

Abstract:

Traditional supply chain silos still exist today due to the difficulty of establishing trust between various partners and technological barriers across industries. Companies lose opportunities and revenue and inadvertently make poor business decisions resulting in further challenges. Blockchain technology can bring a new level of transparency through sharing information with a distributed ledger in a decentralized manner that creates a basis of trust for business. Blockchain is a loosely coupled, hub-style communication network in which trading partners can work indirectly with each other for simpler integration, but they work together through the orchestration of their supply chain operations under a coherent process that is developed jointly. A Blockchain increases efficiencies, lowers costs, and improves interoperability to strengthen and automate the supply chain management process while all partners share the risk. Blockchain ledger is built to track inventory lifecycle for supply chain transparency and keeps a journal of inventory movement for real-time reconciliation. State design patterns are used to capture the life cycle (behavior) of inventory management as a state machine for a common, transparent and coherent process which creates an opportunity for trading partners to become more responsive in terms of changes or improvements in process, reconcile discrepancies, and comply with internal governance and external regulations. It enables end-to-end, inter-company visibility at the unit level for more accurate demand planning with better insight into order fulfillment and replenishment.

Keywords: supply chain management, inventory trace-ability, perpetual inventory system, inventory lifecycle, blockchain, inventory consignment, supply chain transparency, digital thread, demand planning, hyper ledger fabric

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Atikah Nurhayati, Asep A. Handaka

Abstract:

Indonesia is a world’s major fish producer which can feed not only its citizens but also the people of the world. Currently, the total annual production is 11 tons and expected to double by the year of 2050. Given the potential, fishery has been an important part of the national food security system in Indonesia. Despite such a potential, a big challenge is facing the Indonesians in making fish the reliable source for their food, more specifically source of protein intake. The long geographic distance between the fish production centers and the consumer concentrations has prevented effective supply chain from producers to consumers and therefore demands a good logistic system. This paper is based on our research, which aimed at analyzing the fish supply chain and is to suggest relevant improvement to the chain. The research was conducted in the Year of 2016 in selected locations of Java Island, where intensive transaction on fishery commodities occur. Data used in this research comprises secondary data of time series reports on production and distribution and primary data regarding distribution aspects which were collected through interviews with purposively selected 100 respondents representing fishers, traders and processors. The data were analyzed following the supply chain management framework and processed following logistic regression and validity tests. The main findings of the research are as follows. Firstly, it was found that improperly managed connectivity and logistic chain is the main cause for insecurity of availability and affordability for the consumers. Secondly, lack of quality of most local processed products is a major obstacle for improving affordability and connectivity. The paper concluded with a number of recommended strategies to tackle the problem. These include rationalization of the length of the existing supply chain, intensification of processing activities, and improvement of distribution infrastructure and facilities.

Keywords: fishery, food security, logistic, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Jens Ehm

Abstract:

Manufacturing in supply chains requires an efficient organisation of production and transport processes in order to guarantee the supply of all partners within the chain with the material that is needed for the reliable fulfilment of tasks. If one partner is not able to supply products for a certain period, these products might be missing as the working material for the customer to perform the next manufacturing step, potentially as supply for further manufacturing steps. This way, local disruptions can influence the whole supply chain. In order to avoid material shortages, an efficient scheduling of tasks is necessary. However, the occurrence of unexpected disruptions cannot be eliminated, so that a modification of the schedule should be arranged as fast as possible. This paper discusses the challenges for the implementation of real-time scheduling and control methods and presents a graph-based approach that enables the integrated scheduling of production and transport processes for multiple supply chain partners and offers the potential for quick adaptations to parts of the initial schedule.

Keywords: production, logistics, integrated scheduling, real-time scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Eric Shannon, Mark J. McGuire, John P. Parmigiani

Abstract:

A hazard associated with the use of timber harvesters is chain shot. Harvester saw chain is subjected to large dynamic mechanical stresses which can cause it to fracture. The resulting open loop of saw chain can fracture a second time and create a projectile consisting of several saw-chain links referred to as a chain shot. Its high kinetic energy enables it to penetrate operator enclosures and be a significant hazard. Accurate data on projectile composition, mass, and speed are needed for the design of both operator enclosures resistant to projectile penetration and for saw chain resistant to fracture. The work presented here contributes to providing this data through the use of a test machine designed and built at Oregon State University. The machine’s enclosure is a standard shipping container. To safely contain any anticipated chain shot, the container was lined with both 9.5 mm AR500 steel plates and 50 mm high-density polyethylene (HDPE). During normal operation, projectiles are captured virtually undamaged in the HDPE enabling subsequent analysis. Standard harvester components are used for bar mounting and chain tensioning. Standard guide bars and saw chains are used. An electric motor with flywheel drives the system. Testing procedures follow ISO Standard 11837. Chain speed at break was approximately 45.5 m/s. Data was collected using both a 75 cm solid bar (Oregon 752HSFB149) and 90 cm solid bar (Oregon 902HSFB149). Saw chains used were 89 Drive Link .404”-18HX loops made from factory spools. Standard 16-tooth sprockets were used. Projectile speed was measured using both a high-speed camera and a chronograph. Both rotational and translational kinetic energy are calculated. For this study 50 chain shot events were executed. Results showed that projectiles consisted of a variety combinations of drive links, tie straps, and cutter links. Most common (occurring in 60% of the events) was a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link combination having a mass of approximately 10.33 g. Projectile mass varied from a minimum of 2.99 g corresponding to a drive link only to a maximum of 18.91 g corresponding to a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link / cutter-link / drive-link combination. Projectile translational speed was measured to be approximately 270 m/s and rotational speed of approximately 14000 r/s. The calculated translational and rotational kinetic energy magnitudes each average over 600 J. This study provides useful information for both timber harvester manufacturers and saw chain manufacturers to design products that reduce the hazards associated with timber harvesting.

Keywords: chain shot, timber harvesters, safety, testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Wuttigrai Ngamsirijit

Abstract:

Talent management in today’s modern organizations has become data-driven due to a demand for objective human resource decision making and development of analytics technologies. HR managers have been faced with some obstacles in exploiting data and information to obtain their effective talent management decisions. These include process-based data and records; insufficient human capital-related measures and metrics; lack of capabilities in data modeling in strategic manners; and, time consuming to add up numbers and make decisions. This paper proposes a framework of talent management through integration of talent value chain and human capital analytics approaches. It encompasses key data, measures, and metrics regarding strategic talent management decisions along the organizational and talent value chain. Moreover, specific predictive and prescriptive models incorporating these data and information are recommended to help managers in understanding the state of talent, gaps in managing talent and the organization, and the ways to develop optimized talent strategies.    

Keywords: decision making, human capital analytics, talent management, talent value chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Desiree Vandenberghe, Johan Albrecht

Abstract:

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for the vast majority of deaths in the European Union (EU) and represent a large share of total health care spending. A future increase in this health and financial burden is likely to be driven by population ageing, lifestyle changes and technological advances in medicine. Without adequate prevention measures, this burden can severely threaten population health and economic development. To tackle this challenge, a correct assessment of the current burden of NCDs is required, as well as a projection of potential increases of this burden. The contribution of this paper is to offer perspective on the evolution of the NCD burden towards the future and to give an indication of the potential of prevention policy. A Non-Homogenous, Semi-Markov model for the EU was constructed, which allowed for a projection of the cost burden for the four main NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes mellitus) towards 2030 and 2050. This simulation is done based on multiple baseline scenarios that vary in demand and supply factors such as health status, population structure, and technological advances. Finally, in order to assess the potential of preventive measures to curb the cost explosion of NCDs, a simulation is executed which includes increased efforts for preventive health care measures. According to the Markov model, by 2030 and 2050, total costs (direct and indirect costs) in the EU could increase by 30.1% and 44.1% respectively, compared to 2015 levels. An ambitious prevention policy framework for NCDs will be required if the EU wants to meet this challenge of rising costs. To conclude, significant cost increases due to Non-Communicable Diseases are likely to occur due to demographic and lifestyle changes. Nevertheless, an ambitious prevention program throughout the EU can aid in making this cost burden manageable for future generations.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, preventive health care, health policy, Markov model, scenario analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Komeil Valipourian

Abstract:

Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

Keywords: numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method (FDM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Mohammad Ebrahim Arbabian

Abstract:

This paper investigates the impact of 3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing, on a multi-item supply chain comprising a manufacturer and retailer. Operating under a wholesale-price contract and catering to stochastic customer demand, this study delves into the largely unexplored realm of how 3D printing technology reshapes supply chain dynamics. A distinguishing aspect of 3D printing is its versatility in producing various product types, yet its slower production pace compared to traditional methods poses a challenge. We analyze the trade-off between 3D printing's limited capacity and its enhancement of production flexibility. By delineating the economic circumstances favoring 3D printing adoption by the manufacturer, we establish the Stackelberg equilibrium in the retailer-manufacturer game. Additionally, we determine optimal order quantities for the retailer considering 3D printing as an option for the manufacturer, ascertain optimal wholesale prices in the presence of 3D printing, and compute optimal profits for both parties involved in the supply chain.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, supply chain management, contract theory, Stackelberg game, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Maurice Bilioniere, Katie Lanneau

Abstract:

Suddenly appeared in 2011, invasions of sargasso seaweeds Fluitans and Natans are a climatic hazard which causes many problems in the Caribbean. Faced with the growth and frequency of the phenomenon of massive sargasso stranding on their coasts, the French West Indies are moving towards the path of industrial recovery. In this context of innovative projects, we will analyze the necessary requirements for the management and performance of the supply chain, taking into account the observed volatility of the sargasso input. Our prospective approach will consist in studying the theoretical framework of modeling a hybrid supply chain by coupling the discreet event simulation (DES) with a valuation of the process costs according to the "activity-based costing" method (ABC). The PREVA approach (PRocess EVAluation) chosen for our modeling has the advantage of evaluating the financial flows of the logistic process using an analytical model chained with an action model for the evaluation or optimization of physical flows.

Keywords: sargasso, PREVA modeling, supply chain, ABC method, discreet event simulation (DES)

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Kai Pei Huang, Ting Chung Hung, Li Ching Wu

Abstract:

Amyloidosis refers to a variety of conditions wherein amyloid proteins are abnormally deposited in organ or tissues and cause harm. Among the several forms of amyloidosis, the principal types of that in inpatient medical services are the AL amyloidosis (primary) and AA amyloidois (secondary). AL Amyloidois is due to deposition of protein derived from overproduction of immunoglobulin light chain in plasma cell myeloma. Furthermore, it is a systemic disorder that can present with a variety of symptoms, including heavy proteinemia and edema, heptosplenomegaly, otherwise unexplained heart failure. We reported a 78-year-old female presenting dysuria, oliguria and leg edema for several months. Laboratory data showed proteinuria (UPCR:1679.8), leukocytosis (WBC:16.2 x 10^3/uL), results of serum urea nitrogen (39mg/dL), creatinine (0.76 mg/dL), IgG (748 mg/dL.), IgA (635 mg/dL), IgM (63 mg/dL), kappa light chain(18.8 mg/dL), lambda light chain (110.0 mg/dL) and kappa/lambda ratio (0.17). Renal biopsy found amyloid fibrils in glomerular mesangial area, and Congo red stain highlights amyloid deposition in glomeruli. Additional lab studies included serum protein electrophoresis, which shows a major monoclonal peak in β region and minor small peak in gamma region, and the immunotyping studies for serum showed two IgA/λ type. We treated sample with beta-mercaptoethanol which reducing the polymerized immunoglobulin to clarify two IgA/λ are secreted from the same plasma cell clone in bone marrow. Later examination confirmed it existed plasma cell infiltration in bone marrow, and the immunohistochemical staining showed monotypic for λ light chain and are positive for IgA. All findings mentioned above reveal it is a case of plasma cell myeloma with λ Light Chain Amyloidosis.

Keywords: amyloidosis, immunoglobulin light chain, plasma cell myeloma, serum protein electrophoresis

Procedia PDF Downloads 214

Authors: Pankhuri Dagaonkar, Charumani Singh, Poornima Krothapalli, Krishna Karthik

Abstract:

The backbone of any retail e-commerce success story is a unique design of supply chain network, providing the business an unparalleled speed and scalability. Primary goal of the supply chain strategy is to meet customer expectation by offering fastest deliveries while keeping the cost minimal. Meeting this objective at the large market that India provides is the problem statement that we have targeted here. There are many models and optimization techniques focused on network design to identify the ideal facility location and size, optimizing cost and speed. In this paper we are presenting a tactical approach to optimize cost of an existing network for a predefined speed. We have considered both forward and reverse logistics of a retail e-commerce supply chain consisting of multiple fulfillment (warehouse) and delivery centers, which are connected via sortation nodes. The mathematical model presented here determines if the shipment from a node should get sorted directly for the last mile delivery center or it should travel as consolidated package to another node for further sortation (resort). The objective function minimizes the total cost by varying the resort percentages between nodes and provides the optimal resource allocation and number of sorts at each node.

Keywords: distribution strategy, mathematical model, network design, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Carlos Gordon, Patricio Encalada, Henry Lema, Diego Leon, Dennis Chicaiza

Abstract:

The following work presents a proposal of autonomous navigation of mobile robots implemented in an omnidirectional robot Kuka Youbot. We have been able to perform the integration of robotic operative system (ROS) and machine learning algorithms. ROS mainly provides two distributions; ROS hydro and ROS Kinect. ROS hydro allows managing the nodes of odometry, kinematics, and path planning with statistical and probabilistic, global and local algorithms based on Adaptive Monte Carlo Localization (AMCL) and Dijkstra. Meanwhile, ROS Kinect is responsible for the detection block of dynamic objects which can be in the points of the planned trajectory obstructing the path of Kuka Youbot. The detection is managed by artificial vision module under a trained neural network based on the single shot multibox detector system (SSD), where the main dynamic objects for detection are human beings and domestic animals among other objects. When the objects are detected, the system modifies the trajectory or wait for the decision of the dynamic obstacle. Finally, the obstacles are skipped from the planned trajectory, and the Kuka Youbot can reach its goal thanks to the machine learning algorithms.

Keywords: autonomous navigation, machine learning, path planning, robotic operative system, open source computer vision library

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Mario M. J. Musonda

Abstract:

Access to health care is a human right, which includes having timely access to affordable and quality essential medicines at the right place and in sufficient quantity. However, inefficient public sector supply chain management contributes to constant shortages of essential medicines at health facilities. Literature review involved a desktop study of published research studies and reports on risk management, supply chain management of essential medicines and their integration to increase the efficiency of the latter. The research was conducted on a sample population of offices under Ministry of Health Headquarters, Lusaka Provincial and District Offices, selected health facilities in Lusaka, Medical Stores Limited, Zambia Medicines Regulatory Authority and Cooperating Partners. Individuals involved in study were selected judgmentally by their functions under selection and quantification, regulation, procurement, storage, distribution, quality assurance, and dispensing of essential medicines. Structured interviews and discussions were held with selected experts and self-administered questionnaires were distributed. Collected and analysed data of 35 returned and usable questionnaires from the 50 distributed. The highest prioritised risks were; inadequate and inconsistent fund disbursements, weak information management systems, weak quality management systems and insufficient resources (HR and infrastructure) among others. The results for this research can be used to increase the efficiency of the public sector supply chain of essential medicines and other pharmaceuticals. The results of the study showed that there is need to implement effective risk management systems by participating institutions and organisations to increase the efficiency of the entire supply chain in order to avoid and/or reduce shortages of essential medicines at health facilities.

Keywords: essential medicine, risk assessment, risk management, supply chain, supply chain risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Barbora Chmelova, Radek Sachl

Abstract:

Gangliosides are amphipathic membrane lipids. Due to the composition of bulky oligosaccharide chains containing one or more sialic acids linked to the hydrophobic ceramide base, gangliosides are classified among glycosphingolipids. This unique structure induces a high self-aggregating tendency of gangliosides and, therefore, the formation of nanoscopic clusters called nanodomains. Gangliosides are preferentially present in an extracellular membrane leaflet of all human tissues and thus have an impact on a huge number of biological processes, such as intercellular communication, cell signalling, membrane trafficking, and regulation of receptor activity. Defects in their metabolism, impairment of proper ganglioside function, or changes in their organization lead to serious health conditions such as Alzheimer´s and Parkinson´s diseases, autoimmune diseases, tumour growth, etc. This work mainly focuses on ganglioside organization into nanodomains and their dynamics within the plasma membrane. Current research investigates static ganglioside nanodomains characterization; nevertheless, the information about their diffusion is missing. In our study, fluorescence correlation spectroscopy is implemented together with stimulated emission depletion (STED-FCS), which combines the diffraction-unlimited spatial resolution with high temporal resolution. By comparison of the experiments performed on model vesicles containing 4 % of either GM1, GM2, or GM3 and Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion on the plasma membrane, the description of ganglioside clustering, diffusion of nanodomains, and even diffusion of ganglioside molecules inside investigated nanodomains are described.

Keywords: gangliosides, nanodomains, STED-FCS, flourescence microscopy, membrane diffusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Rudolph Carl Barrientos, Juwaln Diego Descallar, Rainer James Palmiano

Abstract:

Household Appliance Scheduling Systems (HASS) coupled with a Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing scheme, a form of Demand Side Management (DSM), is not widely utilized in the Philippines’ residential electricity sector. This paper’s goal is to encourage distribution utilities (DUs) to adopt HASS and TOU by analyzing the effect of household schedulers on the electricity price and load profile in a residential environment. To establish this, a city based on an implemented survey is generated using Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA). Then, a Binary Particle Swarm Optimization (BPSO) algorithm-based HASS is developed considering user satisfaction, electricity budget, appliance prioritization, energy storage systems, solar power, and electric vehicles. The simulations were assessed under varying levels of user compliance. Results showed that the average electricity cost, peak demand, and peak-to-average ratio (PAR) of the city load profile were all reduced. Therefore, the deployment of the HASS and TOU pricing scheme is beneficial for both stakeholders.

Keywords: appliance scheduling, DSM, TOU, BPSO, city-wide simulation, electric vehicle, appliance prioritization, energy storage system, solar power

Procedia PDF Downloads 99