Search results for: extreme flow

Authors: Dimitrios Akrivos, Alexandros K. Antoniou

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This paper looks at the crucial role of the British news media in the construction of extreme pornography as a social problem, suggesting that this paved the way for the subsequent criminalization of such material through the introduction of the Criminal Justice and Immigration Act 2008. Focusing on the high-profile case of Graham Coutts, it examines the British national press’ reaction to Jane Longhurst’s murder through a qualitative content analysis of 251 relevant news articles. Specifically, the paper documents the key arguments expressed in the corresponding claims-making process. It considers the different ways in which the consequent ‘trial by media’ presented this exceptional case as the ‘tip of the iceberg’ and eventually translated into policy. The analysis sheds light on the attempts to ‘piggyback’ the issue of extreme pornography on child sexual abuse images as well as the textual and visual mechanisms used to establish an ‘us versus them’ dichotomy in the pertinent media discourse. Finally, the paper assesses the severity of the actual risk posed by extreme pornography, concluding that its criminalization should not merely be dismissed as the outcome of an institutionalized media panic.

Keywords: criminalization, extreme pornography, social problem, trial by media

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Authors: Mahmoud Roushdi, Hany Mostafa, Khaled Kheireldin

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Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor are promising and important economic regions in Egypt due to the unique location and development opportunities. Thus, the climate change impacts should be assessed over the mentioned area. Accordingly, this paper aims to assess the climate extreme indices in through the last 35 year over Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor in addition to predict the climate extreme indices up to 2100. Present and future climate indices were analyzed with using different RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 from 2010 until 2100 for Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor. Furthermore, both CanESM and HadGEM2 global circulation models were used. The results indicate that the number of summer days is predicted to increase, on the other hand the frost days is predicted to decrease. Moreover, it is noted a slight positive trend for the percentile of wet and extremely days R95p and R99p for RCP4.5 and negative trend for RCP8.5.

Keywords: climate change, extreme indices, RCP, Sinai Peninsula

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Authors: Mohamed Elshobaki, Alessandro Valiani, Valerio Caleffi

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In this paper, we solve 1-D shallow water equation for sub-critical and super-critical water flow at junction. The water flow at junction has been studied for the last 50 years from the physical-hydraulic point of views and for numerical computations need more attention. For numerical simulation, we need to establish an inner boundary condition at the junction to avoid an oscillation which rise from the waves interactions at the junction. Indeed, we introduce a new boundary condition at the junction based on the mass conservation, total head, and the admissible wave relations between the flow parameters in the three branches to predict the water depths and discharges at the junction. These boundary conditions are valid for sub-critical flow and super-critical flow.

Keywords: numerical simulation, junction flow, sub-critical flow, super-critical flow

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Authors: A. J. Nazari, S. Honma

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This paper evaluates oil displacement by water in Hauterivian sandstone reservoir of Kashkari oil field in North of Afghanistan. The core samples of this oil field were taken out from well No-21^st, and the relative permeability and fractional flow are analyzed. Steady state flow laboratory experiments are performed to empirically obtain the fractional flow curves and relative permeability in different water saturation ratio. The relative permeability represents the simultaneous flow behavior in the reservoir. The fractional flow approach describes the individual phases as fractional of the total flow. The fractional flow curve interprets oil displacement by water, and from the tangent of fractional flow curve can find out the average saturation behind the water front flow saturation. Therefore, relative permeability and fractional flow curves are suitable for describing the displacement of oil by water in a petroleum reservoir. The effects of irreducible water saturation, residual oil saturation on the displaceable amount of oil are investigated through Buckley-Leveret analysis.

Keywords: fractional flow, oil displacement, relative permeability, simultaneously flow

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Authors: Pawel Flaszynski, Piotr Doerffer, Jan Holnicki-Szulc, Grzegorz Mikulowski

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Results of numerical simulations for transonic flow in a piezoelectric valve are presented. The valve is the main part of an adaptive pneumatic shock absorber. Flow structure in the valve domain and the influence of the flow non-uniformity in the valve on a mass flow rate is investigated. Numerical simulation results are compared with experimental data.

Keywords: pneumatic valve, transonic flow, numerical simulations, piezoelectric valve

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye, Edouard Singirankabo, Alexis Habineza, Yunvirusaba Nelson

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Temperature is one of the most important climatic factors for crop production. However, severe temperatures cause drought, feverish and cold spells that have various consequences for human life, agriculture, and the environment in general. It is necessary to provide reliable information related to the incidents and the probability of such extreme events occurring. In the 21st century, the world faces a huge number of threats, especially from climate change, due to global warming and environmental degradation. The rise in temperature has a direct effect on the decrease in rainfall. This has an impact on crop growth and development, which in turn decreases crop yield and quality. Countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture use to suffer a lot and need to take preventive steps to overcome these challenges. The main objective of this study is to model the statistical behaviour of extreme maximum temperature values in Rwanda. To achieve such an objective, the daily temperature data spanned the period from January 2000 to December 2017 recorded at nine weather stations collected from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency were used. The two methods, namely the block maxima (BM) method and the Peaks Over Threshold (POT), were applied to model and analyse extreme temperature. Model parameters were estimated, while the extreme temperature return periods and confidence intervals were predicted. The model fit suggests Gumbel and Beta distributions to be the most appropriate models for the annual maximum of daily temperature. The results show that the temperature will continue to increase, as shown by estimated return levels.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, extreme value theory, rwanda, temperature, generalised extreme value distribution, generalised pareto distribution

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC). By considering two sets of data (raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data, while in the simulated data the return values show an increasing trend with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend with an upper bound. This clearly shows that although temperatures in the tropics show a sign of increase in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedance. The results of this paper are very vital in agricultural and environmental research.

Keywords: forecasting, generalized extreme value (GEV), meteorology, return level

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Authors: Mohammad Sadegh Narges, Zahra Ghadampour

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Due to the specific condition, offshore pipelines are given careful consideration and care in both design and operation. Most of the offshore pipeline flows are multi-phase. Multi-phase flows construct different pattern or flow regimes (in simultaneous gas-liquid flow, flow regimes like slug flow, wave and …) under different circumstances. One of the influencing factors on the flow regime is the pipeline roughness value. So far, roughness value influences and the sensitivity of the present models to this parameter have not been taken into consideration. Therefore, roughness value influences on the flow regimes in offshore pipelines are discussed in this paper. Results showed that geometry, absolute pipeline roughness value (materials that the pipeline is made of) and flow phases prevailing the system are of the influential parameters on the flow regimes prevailing multi-phase pipelines in a way that a change in any of these parameters results in a change in flow regimes in all or part of the pipeline system.

Keywords: absolute roughness, flow regime, multi-phase flow, offshore pipelines

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Authors: Y.Galerkin, O. Solovieva

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Flow parameters are calculated in vaneless diffusers with relative width 0,014 – 0,10 constant along radii. Inlet flow angles and similarity criteria were varied. Information about flow structure is presented – meridian streamlines configuration, information on flow full development, flow separation. Polytrophic efficiency, loss and recovery coefficient are used to compare diffusers’ effectiveness. The sample of narrow diffuser optimization by conical walls application is presented. Three tampered variants of a wide diffuser are compared too. The work is made in the R&D laboratory “Gas dynamics of turbo machines” of the TU SPb.

Keywords: vaneless diffuser, relative width, flow angle, flow separation, loss coefficient, similarity criteria

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Authors: Tadashi Watanabe, Jinya Katsuyama, Akihiro Mano

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The estimation of leak flow rates through narrow cracks in structures is of importance for nuclear reactor safety, since the leak flow could be detected before occurrence of loss-of-coolant accidents. The two-phase critical leak flow rates are calculated using the system analysis code, and two representative non-homogeneous critical flow models, Henry-Fauske model and Ransom-Trapp model, are compared. The pressure decrease and vapor generation in the crack, and the leak flow rates are found to be larger for the Henry-Fauske model. It is shown that the leak flow rates are not affected by the structural temperature, but affected largely by the roughness of crack surface.

Keywords: crack, critical flow, leak, roughness

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Authors: Zineddine Bouyahiaoui, Rabah Haoui

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The aim of this work is to analyze a flow around the axisymmetric blunt body taken into account the chemical and vibrational nonequilibrium flow. This work concerns the entry of spacecraft in the atmosphere of the planet Mars. Since the equations involved are non-linear partial derivatives, the volume method is the only way to solve this problem. The choice of the mesh and the CFL is a condition for the convergence to have the stationary solution.

Keywords: blunt body, finite volume, hypersonic flow, viscous flow

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Authors: Cemre Polat, Mustafa Soyler, Bulent Yaniktepe, Coskun Ozalp

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In this study, it was aimed to control the flow actively by giving an oscillating rotational motion to a vertically placed cylinder, and flow characteristics were determined. In the study, firstly, the flow structure around the flat cylinder was investigated with dye experiments, and then the cylinders with different oscillation angles (θ = 60°, θ = 120°, and θ = 180°) and different rotation speeds (15 rpm and 30 rpm) the flow structure around it was examined. Thus, the effectiveness of oscillation and rotation speed in flow control has been investigated. In the dye experiments, the dye/water mixture obtained by mixing Rhodamine 6G in powder form with water, which shines under laser light and allows detailed observation of the flow structure, was used. During the experiments, the dye was injected into the flow with the help of a thin needle at a distance that would not affect the flow from the front of the cylinder. In dye experiments, 100 frames per second were taken with a Canon brand EOS M50 (24MP) digital mirrorless camera at a resolution of 1280 * 720 pixels. Then, the images taken were analyzed, and the pictures representing the flow structure for each experiment were obtained. As a result of the study, it was observed that no separation points were formed at 180° swing angle at 15 rpm speed, 120° and 180° swing angle at 30 rpm, and the flow was controlled according to the fixed cylinder.

Keywords: active flow control, cylinder, flow visualization rotationally oscillating

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Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah, Mehdi Jorabloo

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Water flow management is one of the most important parts of river engineering. Non-uniformity distribution of rainfall and various flow demand with unreasonable flow management will be caused destroyed of the river ecosystem. Then, it is severe to determine ecosystem flow requirement. In this paper, Flow duration curve indices method which has hydrological based was used to evaluate environmental flow in Gharasou River, Ardabil, Iran. Using flow duration curve, Q90 and Q95 for different return periods were calculated. Their magnitude was determined as 1-day, 3-day, 7-day, and 30 days. According to the second method, hydraulic alteration indices often had low and medium range. To maintain river at an acceptable ecological condition, minimum daily discharge of index Q95 is 0.7 m^3.s^-1.

Keywords: Gharasou River, water flow management, non-uniformity distribution, ecosystem flow requirement, hydraulic alteration

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Authors: Xinyi Le

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In this paper, 3D printing orientations were determined through our perceptual model. Some FDM (Fused Deposition Modeling) 3D printers, which are widely used in universities and industries, often require support structures during the additive manufacturing. After removing the residual material, some surface artifacts remain at the contact points. These artifacts will damage the function and visual effect of the model. To prevent the impact of these artifacts, we present a fuzzy extreme learning machine approach to find printing directions that avoid placing supports in perceptually significant regions. The proposed approach is able to solve the evaluation problem by combing both the subjective knowledge and objective information. Our method combines the advantages of fuzzy theory, auto-encoders, and extreme learning machine. Fuzzy set theory is applied for dealing with subjective preference information, and auto-encoder step is used to extract good features without supervised labels before extreme learning machine. An extreme learning machine method is then developed successfully for training and learning perceptual models. The performance of this perceptual model will be demonstrated on both natural and man-made objects. It is a good human-computer interaction practice which draws from supporting knowledge on both the machine side and the human side.

Keywords: 3d printing, perceptual model, fuzzy evaluation, data-driven approach

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Authors: Youness Laaroussi, Zine Elabidine Guennoun, Amine Amar

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Modeling and forecasting dynamics of rainfall occurrences constitute one of the major topics, which have been largely treated by statisticians, hydrologists, climatologists and many other groups of scientists. In the same issue, we propose in the present paper a new hybrid method, which combines Extreme Values and fractal theories. We illustrate the use of our methodology for transformed Emberger Index series, constructed basing on data recorded in Oujda (Morocco). The index is treated at first by Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach, to identify excess observations over an optimal threshold u. In the second step, we consider the resulting excess as a fractal object included in one dimensional space of time. We identify fractal dimension by the box counting. We discuss the prospect descriptions of rainfall data sets under Generalized Pareto Distribution, assured by Extreme Values Theory (EVT). We show that, despite of the appropriateness of return periods given by POT approach, the introduction of fractal dimension provides accurate interpretation results, which can ameliorate apprehension of rainfall occurrences.

Keywords: extreme values theory, fractals dimensions, peaks Over threshold, rainfall occurrences

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wan, Kalim Ullah

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Hydrological frequency analysis has been conducted to estimate the minimum flow elevation of the Indus River in Pakistan to protect the ecosystem. The Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique is used to estimate the best-fitted distribution for Minimum Ecological Flows at nine stations of the Indus River in Pakistan. The four selected distributions, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, Generalized Logistics (GLO) distribution, Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution, and Pearson type 3 (PE3) are fitted in all sites, usually used in hydro frequency analysis. Compare the performance of these distributions by using the goodness of fit tests, such as the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, Anderson darling test, and chi-square test. The study concludes that the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method recommended that GEV and GPA are the most suitable distributions which can be effectively applied to all the proposed sites. The quantiles are estimated for the return periods from 5 to 1000 years by using MLE, estimations methods. The MLE is the robust method for larger sample sizes. The results of these analyses can be used for water resources research, including water quality management, designing irrigation systems, determining downstream flow requirements for hydropower, and the impact of long-term drought on the country's aquatic system.

Keywords: minimum ecological flow, frequency distribution, indus river, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: V. Khosravi, F. D. Ardejani, A. Aryafar, M. Sedighi

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Heavy metals have a damaging impact for the environment, animals and humans due to their extreme toxicity and removing them from wastewaters is a very important and interesting task in the field of water pollution control. Biosorption is a relatively new method for treatment of wastewaters and recovery of heavy metals. In this study, a continuous fixed bed study was carried out by using Bacillus thuringiensis as a biosorbent for the removal of Cu and Mn ions from Sarcheshmeh Acid Mine Drainage (AMD). The effect of operating parameters such as flow rate and bed height on the sorption characteristics of B. thuringiensis was investigated at pH 6.0 for each metal ion. The experimental results showed that the breakthrough time decreased with increasing flow rate and decreasing bed height. The data also indicated that the equilibrium uptake of both metals increased with decreasing flow rate and increasing bed height. BDST, Thomas, and Yoon–Nelson models were applied to experimental data to predict the breakthrough curves. All models were found suitable for describing the whole dynamic behavior of the column with respect to flow rate and bed height. In order to regenerate the adsorbent, an elution step was carried out with 1 M HCl and five adsorption-desorption cycles were carried out in continuous manner.

Keywords: acid mine drainage, bacillus thuringiensis, biosorption, cu and mn ions, fixed bed

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Authors: Zaaraoui Abdelkader, Kerfah Rabeh, Noura Belkheir, Matene Elhacene

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The trapezoidal bluff body is a typical configuration of vortex shedding bodies. The aim of this work is to study flow behaviour over a trapezoidal cylinder at low Reynolds number. The geometry was constructed from a prototype device for measuring the volumetric flow-rate by counting vortices. Simulations were run for this geometry under steady and unsteady flow conditions using finite volume discretization. Laminar flow was investigated in this model with rigid walls and homogeneous incompressible Newtonian fluid. Calculations were performed for Reynolds number range 5 ≤ Re ≤ 180 and several flow parameters were documented. The present computations are in good agreement with the experimental observations and the numerical calculations by several investigators.

Keywords: bluff body, confined flow, numerical calculations, steady and unsteady flow, vortex shedding flow meter

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque probability density functions even though decreases at these extreme wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also found that it is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output power) above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters. This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.

Keywords: probability, probability density function, stochastic, turbulence

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Authors: Oyenike Eludoyin

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Extreme climate conditions are deviation from the norms and are capable of causing upsets in many important environmental parameter including disruption of water balance and air temperature balance. Studies have shown that extreme climate conditions can foretell disaster in regions with inadequate early warning systems. In this paper, we combined geographical information systems, statistics and social surveys to evaluate the physiologic indices [(Dewpoint Temperature (Td), Effective Temperature Index (ETI) and Relative Strain Index (RSI)] and extreme climate conditions in different parts of southwest Nigeria. This was with the view to assessing the nature and the impact of the conditions on the people and their coping strategies. The results indicate that minimum, mean and maximum temperatures were higher in 1960-1990 than 1991-2013 periods at most areas, and more than 80% of the people adapt to thermal stress by changing wear type or cloth, installing air conditioner and fan at home and/or work place and sleeping outside at certain period of the night and day. With respect to livelihoods, about 52% of the interviewed farmers indicated that too early rainfall, late rainfall, prolonged dryness after an initial rainfall, excessive rainfall and windstorms caused low crop yields. Main (76%) coping strategies were changing of planting dates, diversification of crops, and practices of mulching and intercropping. Government or institutional support was less than 20%.

Keywords: coping strategies, extreme climate, livelihoods, physiologic comfort

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Authors: Pushpendra Kumar, Sanjeev Kumar, R. Balasubramanian

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Estimation of optical flow from a sequence of images using variational methods is one of the most successful approach. Discontinuity between different motions is one of the challenging problem in flow estimation. In this paper, we design a new anisotropic diffusion operator, which is able to provide smooth flow over a region and efficiently preserve discontinuity in optical flow. This operator is designed on the basis of intensity differences of the pixels and isotropic operator using exponential function. The combination of these are used to control the propagation of flow. Experimental results on the different datasets verify the robustness and accuracy of the algorithm and also validate the effect of anisotropic operator in the discontinuity preserving.

Keywords: optical flow, variational methods, computer vision, anisotropic operator

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Authors: Sonal Khosla

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A research is proposed in the present paper to explore the role of flow in coping with traumatic experiences and attaining post-traumatic growth. A grounded theory research is proposed to be carried by analyzing memoirs of people who have been through trauma. A pilot study was carried out on two memoirs of women who were held captive for over ten years and were sexually assaulted repeatedly. The role of flow in their coping experiences was explored by analyzing the books. Some of the flow activities that were used by them were- drawing and daydreaming. Their narratives show the evidence for flow as having cathartic and healing effects on them. Applicability of the findings can take two forms: 1. Flow can be applied as a preventive technique to help the people who are going through trauma, 2. Flow can be adopted into a positive intervention to help people suffering from PTSD.

Keywords: flow, positive intervention, PTSD, PTG

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Authors: F. Calderón-Vega, A. D. García-Soto, C. Mösso

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Recorded significant wave heights sometimes exhibit large uncommon values (outliers) that can be associated with extreme phenomena such as hurricanes and cold fronts. In this study, some extremely large wave heights recorded in NOAA buoys (National Data Buoy Center, noaa.gov) are used to investigate their effect in the prediction of future wave heights associated with given return periods. Extreme waves are predicted through a time-dependent model based on the so-called generalized extreme value distribution. It is found that the outliers do affect the estimated wave heights. It is concluded that a detailed inspection of outliers is envisaged to determine whether they are real recorded values since this will impact defining design wave heights for coastal protection purposes.

Keywords: GEV model, non-stationary, seasonality, outliers

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Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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Authors: Hadush Kidane Meresa

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The hydrological extremes frequency analysis is the foundation for the hydraulic engineering design, flood protection, drought management and water resources management and planning to utilize the available water resource to meet the desired objectives of different organizations and sectors in a country. This spatial variation of the statistical characteristics of the extreme flood and drought events are key practice for regional flood and drought analysis and mitigation management. For different hydro-climate of the regions, where the data set is short, scarcity, poor quality and insufficient, the regionalization methods are applied to transfer at-site data to a region. This study aims in regional high and low flow frequency analysis for Poland River Basins. Due to high frequent occurring of hydrological extremes in the region and rapid water resources development in this basin have caused serious concerns over the flood and drought magnitude and frequencies of the river in Poland. The magnitude and frequency result of high and low flows in the basin is needed for flood and drought planning, management and protection at present and future. Hydrological homogeneous high and low flow regions are formed by the cluster analysis of site characteristics, using the hierarchical and C- mean clustering and PCA method. Statistical tests for regional homogeneity are utilized, by Discordancy and Heterogeneity measure tests. In compliance with results of the tests, the region river basin has been divided into ten homogeneous regions. In this study, frequency analysis of high and low flows using AM for high flow and 7-day minimum low flow series is conducted using six statistical distributions. The use of L-moment and LL-moment method showed a homogeneous region over entire province with Generalized logistic (GLOG), Generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson type III (P-III), Generalized Pareto (GPAR), Weibull (WEI) and Power (PR) distributions as the regional drought and flood frequency distributions. The 95% percentile and Flow duration curves of 1, 7, 10, 30 days have been plotted for 10 stations. However, the cluster analysis performed two regions in west and east of the province where L-moment and LL-moment method demonstrated the homogeneity of the regions and GLOG and Pearson Type III (PIII) distributions as regional frequency distributions for each region, respectively. The spatial variation and regional frequency distribution of flood and drought characteristics for 10 best catchment from the whole region was selected and beside the main variable (streamflow: high and low) we used variables which are more related to physiographic and drainage characteristics for identify and delineate homogeneous pools and to derive best regression models for ungauged sites. Those are mean annual rainfall, seasonal flow, average slope, NDVI, aspect, flow length, flow direction, maximum soil moisture, elevation, and drainage order. The regional high-flow or low-flow relationship among one streamflow characteristics with (AM or 7-day mean annual low flows) some basin characteristics is developed using Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and Generalized Least Square (GLS) regression model, providing a simple and effective method for estimation of flood and drought of desired return periods for ungauged catchments.

Keywords: flood , drought, frequency, magnitude, regionalization, stochastic, ungauged, Poland

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Authors: Vathanachannbo Veth, Ilan Ich, Sophea Rom Phy, Ty Sok, Layheang Song, Sophal Try, Chantha Oeurng

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Climate change is one of the major global challenges inducing disaster risks and threatening livelihoods and communities through adverse impacts on food and water security, ecosystems, and services. Prek Thnot River Basin of Cambodia is one of the largest tributaries in the Lower Mekong that has been exposed to hazards and disasters, particularly floods and is said to be the effect of climate change. Therefore, the assessment of precipitation and streamflow changes under the effect of climate change was proposed in this river basin using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and different flow indices under baseline (1997 to 2011) and climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with three General Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL, GISS, and IPSL) in two time-horizons: near future (the 2030s: 2021 to 2040) and medium future (2060s: 2051 to 2070). Both intensity and frequency indices compared with the historical extreme rainfall indices significantly change in the GFDL under the RCP8.5 for both 2030s and 2060s. The average rate change of Rx1day, Rx10day, SDII, and R20mm in the 2030s and 2060s of both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 was found to increase in GFDL and decrease in both GISS and IPSL. The mean percentage change of the flow analyzed in the IHA tool (Group1) indicated that the flow in the Prek Thnot River increased in GFDL for both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in both 2030s and 2060s, oppositely in GISS, the flow decreases. Moreover, the IPSL affected the flow by increasing in five months (January, February, October, November, and December), and in the other seven months, the flow decreased accordingly. This study provides water resources managers and policymakers with a wide range of precipitation and water flow projections within the Prek Thnot River Basin in the context of plausible climate change scenarios.

Keywords: IHA, climate change, disaster risk, Prek Thnot River Basin, Cambodia

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Authors: Asiye Ciftci, Zeki Kaya

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Populus nigra is one of the most economically and ecologically important forest trees in Turkey, well known for its rapid growth, good ability to vegetative propagation and the extreme uses of its wood. Due to overexploitation, loss of natural distribution area and extreme hybridization and introgression, Populus nigra is one of the most threatened tree species in Turkey and Europe. Using 20 nuclear microsatellite loci, the genetic structure of European black poplar populations along the two largest rivers of Turkey was analyzed. All tested loci were highly polymorphic, displaying 5 to 15 alleles per locus. Observed heterozygosity (overall Ho = 0.79) has been higher than the expected (overall He = 0.58) in each population. Low level of genetic differentiation among populations (FST= 0,03) and excess of heterozygotes for each river were found. Human-mediated dispersal, phenotypic selection, high level of gene flow and extensive circulations of clonal materials may cause those situations. The genetic data obtained from this study could provide the basis for efficient in situ and ex-situ conservation and restoration of species natural populations in its natural habitat as well as having sustainable breeding and poplar plantations in the future.

Keywords: populus, clonal, loci, ex situ

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Authors: Ojetunde Ojewola, Mark Morgan, Sonja Wilhelm-Stanis

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State parks and historic sites are vulnerable to extreme weather events which can affect visitor experiences, management priorities, and legislative requests for disaster relief funds. Recently, global attention has been focused on the perceptions of global warming and how the presence of extreme weather events might impact protected areas, both now and in the future. The effects of climate change are not equally distributed across the United States, leading to varied perceptions based on personal experience with extreme weather events. This study describes employee perceptions of vulnerability and resilience in Missouri State Parks & Historic Sites due to extreme weather events that occur across the state but grouped according to physiographic provinces. Using a four-point rating scale, perceptions of vulnerability and resilience were divided into high and low sub-groups, thus allowing researchers to construct a two by two typology of employee responses. Subsequently, this data was used to develop a three-point continuum of environmental concern (higher scores meant more concern). Employee scores were then compared against a statewide assessment which combined social, economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators of vulnerability and resilience. State park employees thought the system was less vulnerable and more resilient to climate change than data found in statewide assessment This result was also consistent in three out of five physiographic regions across Missouri. Implications suggest that Missouri state park should develop a climate change adaptation strategy for emergency preparedness.

Keywords: extreme weather events, resilience, state parks, vulnerability

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Authors: Mustafa Soyler, Mustafa M. Yavuz, Bulent Yaniktepe, Coskun Ozalp

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In this study, unsteady two-dimensional turbulent flow around a circular cylinder and passive control of the flow with groove on the cylinder was examined. In the CFD analysis, solutions were made using turbulent flow conditions. Steady and unsteady solutions were used in turbulent flow analysis. Numerical analysis of the flow around the circular cylinder is difficult since flow is not in a stable regime when Reynold number is between 1000 and 10000. The analyses in this study were performed at a subcritical Re number of 5000 and the results were compared with available experimental results of the drag coefficient (Cd) and Strouhal (St) number values in the literature. The effect of different groove types and depths on the Cd coefficient has been analyzed and grooves increase the Cd coefficient compared to the smooth cylinder.

Keywords: CFD, drag coefficient, flow over cylinder, passive flow control

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Authors: Afshin J. Ghajar, Swanand M. Bhagwat

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The main purpose of this work is to experimentally investigate the effect of pipe orientation on two phase flow phenomenon. Flow pattern, void fraction and two phase pressure drop is measured in a polycarbonate pipe with an inside diameter of 12.7mm for inclination angles ranging from -20° to +20° using air-water fluid combination. The experimental data covers all flow patterns and the entire range of void fraction typically observed in two phase flow. The effect of pipe orientation on void fraction and two phase pressure drop is justified with reference to the change in flow structure and two phase flow behavior. In addition to this, the top performing void fraction and two phase pressure drop correlations available in the literature are presented and their performance is assessed against the experimental data in the present study and that available in the literature.

Keywords: flow patterns, inclined two phase flow, pressure drop, void fraction

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