Search results for: epidemic spreading

Authors: Mohammed Al-Shalabi

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In recent years, the Internet of Things (IoT) has become an important technology for connecting various smart objects in many applications, especially in health monitoring applications. The IoT technology develops healthcare applications from traditional to personalized ones by making the treatment and monitoring of patients easier. Nowadays, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the necessity of enhancing healthcare monitoring applications to avoid the spreading of this pandemic is increased. In this paper, a mechanism is proposed to minimize direct contact with COVID-19 patients who need ventilators by using IoT technology. The proposed mechanism saves medical providers from COVID-19 infection and then minimizes the spreading of this disease.

Keywords: internet of things, healthcare monitoring, COVID-19, ventilators, thingspeak, clouds

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Authors: Sami Khan, Kripa Varanasi

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Corrosion is a widespread problem in several industries and developing surfaces that resist corrosion has been an area of interest since the last several decades. Superhydrophobic surfaces that combine hydrophobic coatings along with surface texture have been shown to improve corrosion resistance by creating voids filled with air that minimize the contact area between the corrosive liquid and the solid surface. However, these air voids can incorporate corrosive liquids over time, and any mechanical faults such as cracks can compromise the coating and provide pathways for corrosion. As such, there is a need for self-healing corrosion-resistance surfaces. In this work, the anti-corrosion properties of textured surfaces impregnated with a lubricant have been systematically studied. Since corrosion resistance depends on the area and physico-chemical properties of the material exposed to the corrosive medium, lubricant-impregnated surfaces (LIS) have been designed based on the surface tension, viscosity and chemistry of the lubricant and its spreading coefficient on the solid. All corrosion experiments were performed in a standard three-electrode cell using iron, which readily corrodes in a 3.5% sodium chloride solution. In order to obtain textured iron surfaces, thin films (~500 nm) of iron were sputter-coated on silicon wafers textured using photolithography, and subsequently impregnated with lubricants. Results show that the corrosion rate on LIS is greatly reduced, and offers an over hundred-fold improvement in corrosion protection. Furthermore, it is found that the spreading characteristics of the lubricant are significant in ensuring corrosion protection: a spreading lubricant (e.g., Krytox 1506) that covers both inside the texture, as well as the top of the texture, provides a two-fold improvement in corrosion protection as compared to a non-spreading lubricant (e.g., Silicone oil) that does not cover texture tops. To enhance corrosion protection of surfaces coated with a non-spreading lubricant, pyramid-shaped textures have been developed that minimize exposure to the corrosive solution, and a consequent twenty-fold increased in corrosion protection is observed. An increase in viscosity of the lubricant scales with greater corrosion protection. Finally, an equivalent cell-circuit model is developed for the lubricant-impregnated systems using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. Lubricant-impregnated surfaces find attractive applications in harsh corrosive environments, especially where the ability to self-heal is advantageous.

Keywords: lubricant-impregnated surfaces, self-healing surfaces, wettability, nano-engineered surfaces

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Authors: Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O. Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin Leeuwen, Steven Riley

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Traditional syndromic surveillance for influenza has substantial public health value in characterizing epidemics. Because the relationship between syndromic incidence and the true infection events can vary from one population to another and from one year to another, recent studies rely on combining serological test results with syndromic data from traditional surveillance into epidemic models to make inference on epidemiological processes of influenza. However, despite the widespread availability of serological data, epidemic models have thus far not explicitly represented antibody titre levels and their correspondence with immunity. Most studies use dichotomized data with a threshold (Typically, a titre of 1:40 was used) to define individuals as likely recently infected and likely immune and further estimate the cumulative incidence. Underestimation of Influenza attack rate could be resulted from the dichotomized data. In order to improve the use of serosurveillance data, here, a refinement of the concept of the stratified immunity within an epidemic model for influenza transmission was proposed, such that all individual antibody titre levels were enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Haemagglutination inhibition titres from 523 individuals and 465 individuals during pre- and post-pandemic phase of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong were collected. The model was fitted to serological data in age-structured population using Bayesian framework and was able to reproduce key features of the epidemics. The effects of age-specific antibody boosting and protection were explored in greater detail. RB was defined to be the effective reproductive number in the presence of stratified immunity and its temporal dynamics was compared to the traditional epidemic model using use dichotomized seropositivity data. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was used to measure the fitness of the model to serological data with different mechanisms of the serological response. The results demonstrated that the differential antibody response with age was present (ΔDIC = -7.0). The age-specific mixing patterns with children specific transmissibility, rather than pre-existing immunity, was most likely to explain the high serological attack rates in children and low serological attack rates in elderly (ΔDIC = -38.5). Our results suggested that the disease dynamics and herd immunity of a population could be described more accurately for influenza when the distribution of immunity was explicitly represented, rather than relying only on the dichotomous states 'susceptible' and 'immune' defined by the threshold titre (1:40) (ΔDIC = -11.5). During the outbreak, RB declined slowly from 1.22[1.16-1.28] in the first four months after 1st May. RB dropped rapidly below to 1 during September and October, which was consistent to the observed epidemic peak time in the late September. One of the most important challenges for infectious disease control is to monitor disease transmissibility in real time with statistics such as the effective reproduction number. Once early estimates of antibody boosting and protection are obtained, disease dynamics can be reconstructed, which are valuable for infectious disease prevention and control.

Keywords: effective reproductive number, epidemic model, influenza epidemic dynamics, stratified immunity

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Authors: S. A. Kondratyev, O. I. Ibragimova

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The authors discuss the collecting abilities of desorbable species (DS) of saturated fatty acids. The DS species of the reagent are understood as species capable of moving from the surface of the mineral particle to the bubble at the moment of the rupture of the interlayer of liquid separating these objects of interaction. DS species of carboxylic acids (molecules and ionic-molecular complexes) have the ability to spread over the surface of the bubble. The rate of their spreading at pH 7 and 10 over the water surface is determined. The collectibility criterion of saturated fatty acids is proposed. The values of forces exerted by the spreading DS species of reagents on liquid in the interlayer and the liquid flow rate from the interlayer are determined.

Keywords: criterion of action of physically adsorbed reagent, flotation, saturated fatty acids, surface pressure

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-COV-2 epidemic, SIR model

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Authors: Dinku Seyoum Zeleke, Rong Fung Huang, Ching Min Hsu

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Comparison of flow and mixing characteristics between non-oscillating jet and transversely oscillating jet was investigated experimentally. Flow evolution process was detected by using high-speed digital camera, and jet spread width was calculated using binary edge detection techniques by using the long-exposure images. The velocity characteristics of transversely oscillating jet induced by a V-shaped fluidic oscillator were measured using single component hot-wire anemometer. The jet spread width of non-oscillating jet was much smaller than the jet exit gap because of behaving natural jet behaviors. However, the transversely oscillating jet has a larger jet spread width, which was associated with the excitation of the flow by self-induced oscillation. As a result, the flow mixing characteristics desperately improved both near-field and far-field. Therefore, this transversely oscillating jet has a better turbulence intensity, entrainment, and spreading width so that it augments flow-mixing characteristics desperately.

Keywords: flow mixing, transversely oscillating, spreading width, velocity characteristics

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Authors: Elaf N. Mahrous, Fares Al Mushref, Turkey Al Dossary

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An embedded particle finite element model has been developed to simulate the transient capillary forces acting on a moving contact line of spreading liquid drop on a smooth solid surface. Three common dissipative force models were tested numerically to account for the capillary effect at the solid-liquid interface. Among those models, Jiang’s model was found to be the most stable one. Our proposed numerical model was validated experimentally for a wide variety of surface wettability. A dimensionless relationship between the spreading rate and time was established, and the results showed good agreement with the experimental data.

Keywords: PFEM-embedded, Eulerian-PFEM, surface tension, capillary forces, moving contact line, non-dimensional analysis

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Authors: Sang-Tae Ji, Jeong-Woo Park, Jun-Ho Park, Kwang-Woo Nam

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This study aims is to suggest the basic factors by considering the priority of intersection in the diffusion project of Smart intersection. Busan Metropolitan City is conducting a smart intersection project for efficient traffic management. The smart intersection project aims to make breakthrough improvement of the intersection congestion by optimizing the signal system using CCTV (closed-circuit television camera) image analysis technology. This study investigated trends of existing researches and analyzed by setting three things of traffic volume, characteristics of intersection road, and whether or not to conduct the main arterial road as factors for selecting new intersection when spreading smart intersection. Using this, we presented the priority of the newly installed intersection through the present situation and analysis for the Busan Metropolitan City which is the main destination of the spreading project of the smart intersection. The results of this study can be used as a consideration in the implementation of smart intersection business.

Keywords: CCTV, GIS, ICT, Smart City, smart intersection

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Authors: N. S. Achour, M. Hamdaoui, S. Ben Nasrallah, A. Perwuelz

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The main idea of this work is to investigate the effect of knitted fabrics characteristics on moisture management properties. Wetting and transport properties of single jersey, Rib 1&1 and English Rib fabrics made out of cotton and blended Cotton/Polyester yarns were studied. The dynamic water sorption of fabrics was investigated under same isothermal and terrestrial conditions at 20±2°C-65±2% by using the Moisture Management Tester (MMT) which can be used to quantitatively measure liquid moisture transfer in one step in a fabric in multi directions: Absorption rate, moisture absorbing time of the fabric's inner and outer surfaces, one-way transportation capability, the spreading/drying rate, the speed of liquid moisture spreading on fabric's inner and outer surfaces are measured, recorded and discussed. The results show that fabric’s composition and knit’s structure have a significant influence on those phenomena.

Keywords: knitted fabrics characteristics, moisture management properties, multi directions, the moisture management tester

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Authors: Haowei Chen, Kaiqi Xiong

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This paper aims to answer how malware will propagate in Wireless Mesh Networks (WMNs) and how communication radius and distributed density of nodes affects the process of spreading. The above analysis is essential for devising network-wide strategies to counter malware. We answer these questions by developing an improved dynamical system that models malware propagation in the area where nodes were uniformly distributed. The proposed model captures both the spatial and temporal dynamics regarding the malware spreading process. Equilibrium and stability are also discussed based on the threshold of the system. If the threshold is less than one, the infected nodes disappear, and if the threshold is greater than one, the infected nodes asymptotically stabilize at the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are investigated about communication radius and distributed density of nodes in WMNs, which allows us to draw various insights that can be used to guide security defense.

Keywords: Bluetooth security, malware propagation, wireless mesh networks, stability analysis

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Authors: Seyedfateh Moradi

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Medical issues mark the beginning of a new form of epistemology in nineteenth-century Iran. The emergence of epidemic diseases led to the formation of a medical discourse and conflict over the body which displayed itself in the concept of health progress and development. The discourse attributed to this development in the health system defines the general structure of the given period. This discourse manifested itself in the conflict between the traditional and new medicine. The regulation and classification of body and population reveal the nature of this period. The government attempted to adapt itself to the modern and progressive discourse. This paper seeks to reveal part of this rupture and adaptation around epidemics and modern medical discourse. Also, accepting part of the traditional discourse in the new era, or adapting and integrating parts of it indicate a delegation of part of the power of traditional authorities. The delegation of power arose in the context of the discursive hegemony of Western modernism from which there was no escape. This provided the ground for the acceptance of government and emergence of other discourses. Finally, during the reign of Reza Shah (1922-1942), body and population planning changed into the key issues of government, which created serious tensions in society.

Keywords: epidemic, population, body, cholera, plague

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Authors: Jiwon Lee, Chanho Jung, Si-Hwan Jang, Kyung-Ill Kim, Sanghyun Joo, Wook-Ho Son

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Since the advances in digital imaging technologies have led to development of high quality digital devices, there are a lot of illegal copies of copyrighted video content on the internet. Thus, we propose a high-quality (HQ) video watermarking scheme that can prevent these illegal copies from spreading out. The proposed scheme is applied spatial and temporal gradient methods to improve the fidelity and detection performance. Also, the scheme duplicates the watermark signal temporally to alleviate the signal reduction caused by geometric and signal-processing distortions. Experimental results show that the proposed scheme achieves better performance than previously proposed schemes and it has high fidelity. The proposed scheme can be used in broadcast monitoring or traitor tracking applications which need fast detection process to prevent illegally recorded video content from spreading out.

Keywords: editing prevention technique, gradient method, luminance change, video watermarking

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Authors: Enjia Zhang

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During the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic, all communities in China were gated and under strict management, which was highly effective in preventing the spread of the epidemic from spreading. Based on the TRIZ theory, this paper intends to propose green design strategies of community control in response to public health emergencies and to optimize community control facilities according to the principle of minimum transformation. Through the questionnaire method, this paper investigates and summarizes the situation and problems of community control during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on these problems, the TRIZ theory is introduced to figure out the problems and associates them with prefabricated facilities. Afterward, the innovation points and solutions of prefabricated community control measures are proposed by using the contradiction matrix. This paper summarizes the current situation of community control under public health emergencies and concludes the problems such as simple forms of temporary roadblocks, sudden increase of community traffic pressure, and difficulties to access public spaces. The importance of entrance and exit control in community control is emphasized. Therefore, the community control measures are supposed to focus on traffic control, and the external access control measures, including motor vehicles, non-motor vehicles, residents and non-residents access control, and internal public space access control measures, including public space control shared with the society or adjacent communities, are proposed in order to make the community keep the open characteristics and have the flexibility to deal with sudden public health emergencies in the future.

Keywords: green design, community control, prefabricated structure, public health emergency

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Authors: Vishnu Raj, Chockalingam Prathap

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The objective of this study was to explore the impact of variation in the exit annular area on the local flow field features and the flame stability of an annular premixed swirl burner (unconfined) operated with premixed n-butane air mixture at equivalence ratio (ϕ) = 1, 1 bar, and 300K. A swirl burner with an axial swirl generator having a swirl number of 1.5 was used. Three different burner heads were chosen to have the exit area increased from 100%, 160%, and 220% resulting in inner and outer diameters and cross-sectional areas as (1) 10mm&15mm, 98mm2 (2) 17.5mm&22.5mm, 157mm2 and (3) 25mm & 30mm, 216mm2. The bulk velocity and Reynolds number based on the hydraulic diameter and unburned gas properties were kept constant at 12 m/s and 4000. (i) Planar PIV with TiO2 seeding particles and (ii) OH* chemiluminescence were used to measure the velocity fields and reaction zones of the swirl flames at 5Hz, respectively. Velocity fields and the jet spreading rates measured at the isothermal and reactive conditions revealed that the presence of a flame significantly altered the flow field in the radial direction due to the gas expansion. Important observations from the flame measurements were: the height and maximum width of the recirculation bubbles normalized by the hydraulic diameter, and the jet spreading angles for the flames for the three exit area cases were: (a) 4.52, 1.95, 28ᵒ, (b) 6.78, 2.37, 34ᵒ, and (c) 8.73, 2.32, 37ᵒ. The lean blowout was also measured, and the respective equivalence ratios were: 0.80, 0.92, and 0.82. LBO was relatively narrow for the 157mm2 case. For this case, particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements showed that Turbulent Kinetic Energy and turbulent intensity were relatively high compared to the other two cases, resulting in higher stretch rates and narrower lean blowout (LBO).

Keywords: chemiluminescence, jet spreading rate, lean blowout, swirl flow

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Authors: Abhishek Kumar, Nilam

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As we know that, time delay exists almost in every biological phenomenon. Therefore, in the present study, we propose a susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) epidemic model along with time delay, modulated incidence rate of infection, and Holling Type II nonlinear treatment rate. The present model aims to provide a strategy to control the spread of epidemics. In the mathematical study of the model, it has been shown that the model has two equilibriums which are named as disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE). Further, stability analysis of the model is discussed. To prove the stability of the model at DFE, we derived basic reproduction number, denoted by (R₀). With the help of basic reproduction number (R₀), we showed that the model is locally asymptotically stable at DFE when the basic reproduction number (R₀) less than unity and unstable when the basic reproduction number (R₀) is greater than unity. Furthermore, stability analysis of the model at endemic equilibrium has also been discussed. Finally, numerical simulations have been done using MATLAB 2012b to exemplify the theoretical results.

Keywords: time delayed SIR epidemic model, modulated incidence rate, Holling type II nonlinear treatment rate, stability

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Authors: Barış Ozluoymak, Emin Guzel, Ahmet İnce

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Since chemical fertilizers are used for meeting the deficiency of plant nutrients, its many harmful effects are not taken into consideration for the structure of the earth. These fertilizers are hampering the work of the organisms in the soil immediately after thrown to the ground. This interference is first started with a change of the soil pH and micro organismic balance is disrupted by reaction in the soil. Since there can be no fragmentation of plant residues, organic matter in the soil will be increasingly impoverished in the absence of micro organismic living. Biological activity reduction brings about a deterioration of the soil structure. If the chemical fertilization continues intensively, soils will get worse every year; plant growth will slow down and stop due to the intensity of chemical fertilizers, yield decline will be experienced and farmer will not receive an adequate return on his investment. In this research, a prototype of automatic farm manure spreading machine for orange orchards that not just manufactured in Turkey was designed, constructed, tested and eliminate the human drudgery involved in spreading of farm manure in the field. The machine comprised several components as a 5 m3 volume hopper, automatic controlled hydraulically driven chain conveyor device and side delivery conveyor belts. To spread the solid farm manure automatically, the machine was equipped with an electronic control system. The hopper and side delivery conveyor designs fitted between orange orchard tree row spacing. Test results showed that the control system has significant effects on reduction in the amount of unnecessary solid farm manure use and avoiding inefficient manual labor.

Keywords: automatic control system, conveyor belt application, orchard, solid farm manure

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Authors: Amrah Maryam

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The emergence of online social networks (OSNs) has transformed the way we pursue and share information. On the one hand, OSNs provide great ease for the spreading of positive information while, on the other hand, they may also become a channel for the spreading of malicious rumors and misinformation throughout the social network. Thus, to assure the trustworthiness of OSNs to its users, it is of vital importance to detect the misinformation propagation in the network by placing network monitors. In this paper, we aim to place monitors near the suspected nodes with the intent to limit the diffusion of misinformation in the social network, and then we also detect the most significant nodes in the network for propagating true information in order to minimize the effect of already diffused misinformation. Thus, we initiate two heuristic monitor placement using articulation points and truth propagation using eigenvector centrality. Furthermore, to provide real-time workings of the system, we integrate both the monitor placement and truth propagation entities as well. To signify the effectiveness of the approaches, we have carried out the experiment and evaluation of Stanford datasets of online social networks.

Keywords: online social networks, monitor placement, independent cascade model, spread of misinformation

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Authors: Jang-hyun Oh, Kyoung-ho Choi, Jea-sun Lee

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The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic brought reconsiderations and doubts about urban density as compact cities became epidemic hot spots. Density, though, provides an upside in that medical services required to protect citizens against the spread of disease are concentrated within compact cities, which helps reduce the mortality rate. Sociodemographic characteristics are also a crucial factor in determining the vulnerability of the population, and the purpose of this study is to empirically discover how these three urban factors affect the severity of the epidemic impacts. The study aimed to investigate the influential relationships between urban factors and epidemic impacts and provide answers to whether superb medical service in compact cities can scale down the impacts of COVID-19. SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) was applied as a suitable research method for verifying interrelationships between factors based on theoretical grounds. The study accounted for 144 municipalities in South Korea during periods from the first emergence of COVID-19 to December 31st, 2022. The study collected data related to infection and mortality cases from each municipality, and it holds significance as primary research that enlightens the aspects of epidemic impact concerning urban settings and investigates for the first time the mediated effects of medical service. The result of the evaluation shows that compact cities are most likely to have lower sociodemographic vulnerability and better quality of medical service, while cities with low density contain a higher portion of vulnerable populations and poorer medical services. However, the quality of medical service had no significant influence in reducing neither the infection rate nor the mortality rate. Instead, density acted as the major influencing factor in the infection rate, while sociodemographic vulnerability was the major determinant of the mortality rate. Thus, the findings strongly paraphrase that compact cities, although with high infection rates, tend to have lower mortality rates due to less vulnerability in sociodemographics, Whereas death was more frequent in less dense cities due to higher portions of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and low-income classes. Findings suggest an important lesson for post-pandemic urban planning-intrinsic characteristics of urban settings, such as density and population, must be taken into account to effectively counteract future epidemics and minimize the severity of their impacts. Moreover, the study is expected to contribute as a primary reference material for follow-up studies that further investigate related subjects, including urban medical services during the pandemic.

Keywords: urban planning, sociodemographic vulnerability, medical service, COVID-19, pandemic

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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Authors: Tajudeen Yusuf

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Arabic Literature of Nigerian Authorship, like others, has contributed widely to the spread of morality and values in human Society. There is no doubt that the relationship between literature and society has been widely conceived, for it reflects society and serves as a means of social control. Indeed, the influence of literature on attitude and human behaviors cannot be underestimated. Focused on some selected themes and verses in a literary work of Isa Abubakar Alabi known as (Ar-Ryaadh), the paper aims to reveal the contributions of the Arabic literary icon of Nigerian origin in spreading values and morality in society through his literary works. The study employs a descriptive method. Isa Abubakar Alabi, a Nigerian Arabic scholar, is known as a wise and famous poet not only in Nigeria but throughout West Africa and Arab countries at large. He has produced a sort of poetry that is distinguished with superiority in spreading peace, harmony, societal values and morality. Indeed, his literary works address humanism, kindness, honesty, law, justice, truthfulness, and patriotism, which may positively influence humans.

Keywords: Arabic, literature, moral, Nigeria, values

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Authors: Wang Yanli, Cheng Yun, Yang Jiarui

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Due to the separation of teachers and students, online teaching during the COVID-19 epidemic was faced with many problems, such as low enthusiasm of students, distraction, low learning atmosphere, and insufficient interaction between teachers and students. The essay designed the elaborate online learning activities of the course 'Research Methods of Educational Science' based on the APT model from three aspects of multiple assessment methods, a variety of teaching methods, and online learning environment and technology. Student's online learning experience was examined from the perception of online course, the perception of the online learning environment, and satisfaction after the course’s implementation. The research results showed that students have a positive overall evaluation of online courses, a high degree of engagement in learning, positive acceptance of online learning, and high satisfaction with it, but students hold a relatively neutral attitude toward online learning. And some dimensions in online learning experience were found to have positive influence on students' satisfaction with online learning. We suggest making the good design of online courses, selecting proper learning platforms, and conducting blended learning to improve students’ learning experience. This study has both theoretical and practical significance for the design, implementation, effect feedback, and sustainable development of online teaching in the post-epidemic era.

Keywords: APT model, online learning, online learning activities, learning experience

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Authors: Muhamad Sahir Bin Ahmad Shatiry, Wan Normeza Wan Zakaria, Mohamad Zaki Hassan

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The pandemic Covid19 has significantly impacted the world; the spreading of the Covid19 virus initially from China has dramatically impacted the world's economy. Therefore, the world reacts with establishing the new way or norm in daily life. The rapid rise of the latest technology has been seen by introducing many technologies to ease human life to have a minor contract between humans and avoid spreading the virus Covid19. Digital twin technologies are one of the technologies created before the pandemic Covid19 but slow adoption in the industry. Throughout the Covid19, most of the companies in the world started to explore to use it. The digital twin technology provides the virtual platform to replicate the existing condition or setup for anything such as office, manufacturing line, factories' machine, building, and many more. This study investigates the effect on the economic perspective after the companies use the Digital Twin technology in the industry. To minimize the contact between humans and to have the ability to operate the system digitally remotely. In this study, the explanation of the digital twin technology impacts the world's microeconomic and macroeconomic.

Keywords: productivity, artificially intelligence, IoT, digital twin

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Authors: Aneta Nitsch-Osuch, Damian Okrucinski, Magdalena Dawgialło, Izabela Gołębiak, Ernest Kuchar

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The Hospital Antibiotic Policy (HAP) should be implemented to rationalize the antibiotic use and to decrease the risk of spreading of spreading of resistant bacteria. The aim of our study was to describe the antibiotic consumption patterns at the single oncosurgery ward before and after implementation of the HAP. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the antibiotic use at the Oncosurgery Ward in Warsaw (Poland) in years 2011-2016. Calculations were based on daily defined doses (DDDs), DDDs/100 hospitalizations and DDDs/100 person-days, drug utilization rates (DU 90% and DU 100%) were also analysed. After implementation of the HAP, the total antibiotic consumption increased (365.35 DDD in 2011 vs. 1359,22 DDD in 2016). The significant change was observed in antibiotic consumption patterns: the use of amoxicillin clavulanate and carbapenems or glycopeptides decreased significantly (p < 0,05), while the use of ciprofloxacin and aminoglycosides increased (p < 0,05). The DU100% rate varied from 6 in 2011 to 12 in 2016; while DU 90% rate varied from 2 in 2011 to 3-5 in 2013-2016. Although the implementation of the HAP did not result in the decreased total antibiotic consumption, it provided favorable changes in the antibiotic consumption patterns.

Keywords: antibiotics, hospital, policy, stewardship

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Authors: Ali Gheshmi

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The highest rate of death, after World War II, is due to the Coronavirus epidemic and more than 2 million people have died since the epidemic outbreak in December 2019, so the word “death” is one of the highest frequency words in social media; moreover, the use of social media has grown due to quarantine and successive restrictions and lockdowns. The most important aspects of the approach used by this study include the analysis of Iranian social media users’ reactions to the images of those who died due to Coronavirus, investigating if seeing such images via social media is effective on the users’ perception of the closeness of death, and evaluating the extent to which the fear of Coronavirus death is instrumental in persuading users to observe health protocols or causing mental problems in social media users. Since the goal of this study is to discover how social media users perceive and react to the images of people who died of Coronavirus, the cultural studies approach is used Receipt analysis method and in-depth interviews will be used for collecting data from Iranian users; also, snowball sampling is used in this study. The probable results would show that cyberspace users experience the closeness of “death” more than any time else and to cope with these annoying images, avoid viewing them or if they view, it will lead them to suffer from mental problems.

Keywords: death, receipt analysis method, mental health, social media, Covid-19

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Authors: Manit Pollar

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Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

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Authors: Orod Zarrin, Mohesn Ramezan Shirazi, Hassan Moniri

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The use of pile foundations technique is developed to support structures and buildings on soft soil. The most important dynamic load that can affect the pile structure is earthquake vibrations. From the 1960s the comprehensive investigation of pile foundations during earthquake excitation indicate that, piles are subject to damage by affecting the superstructure integrity and serviceability. The main part of these research has been focused on the behavior of liquefiable soil and lateral spreading load on piles. During an earthquake, two types of stresses can damage the pile head, inertial load that is caused by superstructure and deformation which caused by the surrounding soil. Soil deformation and inertial load are associated with the acceleration developed in an earthquake. The acceleration amplitude at the ground surface depends on the magnitude of earthquakes, soil properties and seismic source distance. According to the investigation, the damage is between the liquefiable and non-liquefiable layers and also soft and stiff layers. This damage crushes the pile head by increasing the inertial load which is applied by the superstructure. On the other hand, the cracks on the piles due to the surrounding soil are directly related to the soil profile and causes cracks from small to large. And researchers have been listed the large cracks reason such as liquefaction, lateral spreading and inertial load. In the field of designing, elastic response of piles are always a challenge for designer in liquefaction soil, by allowing deflection at top of piles. Moreover, absence of plastic hinges in piles should be insured, because the damage in the piles is not observed directly. In this study, the performance and behavior of pile foundations during liquefaction and lateral spreading are investigated. And emphasize on the soil behavior in the liquefiable and non-liquefiable layers by different aspect of piles damage such as ranking, location and degree of damage are going to discuss.

Keywords: self-compacting concrete, fiber, tensile strength, post-cracking, direct and inverse technique

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Authors: Maja Čović, Josipa Bojčić, Bruna Bacalja, Gorana Jelić Mrčelić

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The appearance of the COVID-19 disease and its fast-spreading brought global pandemic and health crisis. In order to prevent the further spreading of the virus, the governments had implemented mobility restriction rules which left a negative mark on the world’s economy. Although there is numerous research on the impact of COVID-19 on marine traffic around the world, the objective of this paper is to consider the impact of COVID-19 on passenger and cargo traffic in Port of Split, in the Republic of Croatia. Methods used to make the theoretical and research part of the paper are descriptive method, comparative method, compilation, inductive method, deductive method, and statistical method. Paper relies on data obtained via Port of Split Authority and analyses trends in passenger and cargo traffic, including the year 2020, when the pandemic broke. Significant reductions in income, disruptions in transportation and traffic, as well as other maritime services are shown in the paper. This article also observes a significant decline in passenger traffic, cruising traffic and also observes the dynamic of cargo traffic inside the port of Split.

Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, passenger traffic, ports, trends, cargo traffic

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Authors: Waleed Alanzi

Abstract:

The purpose of this qualitative study was to add to the existing literature and provide a more detailed understanding of the individual experiences and perceptions of 15 Deans at the University of Kuwait regarding their first year of planning, developing, and implementing crisis distance education (CDE) in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. An interpretative phenomenological approach was applied, using the thematic analysis of interview transcripts to describe the challenging journeys taken by each of the Deans from the first-person point of view. There was objective evidence, manifested by four primary themes (“Obstacles to the implementation of CDE”; “Planning for CDE”; “Training for CDE,” and “Future Directions”) to conclude that the faculty members, technical staff, administrative staff, and students generally helped each other to overcome the obstacles associated with planning and implementing CDE. The idea that CDE may turn homes into schools and parents into teachers was supported. The planning and implementation of CDE were inevitably associated with a certain amount of confusion, as well as disruptions in the daily routines of staff and students, as well as significant changes in their responsibilities. There were contradictory ideas about the future directions of distance education after the pandemic. Previous qualitative research on the implementation of CDE at higher education institutions in the Arab world has focused mainly on the experiences and perceptions of students; however, little is known about the experiences and perceptions of the students at the University of Kuwait during the COVID19 pandemic, providing a rationale and direction for future research.

Keywords: distance learning, qualitative research, COVID-19 epidemic, Kuwait university

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Authors: Shlomit Paz, Meir Broza

Abstract:

Cholera is an acute intestinal infection caused by ingestion of food or water contaminated with the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. It has a short incubation period and produces an enterotoxin that causes copious, painless, watery diarrhoea that can quickly lead to severe dehydration and death if treatment is not promptly given. In an epidemic, the source of the contamination is usually the feces of an infected person. The disease can spread rapidly in areas with poor treatment of sewage and drinking water. Cholera remains a global threat and is one of the key indicators of social development. An estimated 3-5 million cases and over 100,000 deaths occur each year around the world. The relevance of climatic events as causative factors for cholera epidemics is well known. However, the examination of the involvement of winds in intra-continental disease distribution is new. The study explore the hypothesis that the spreading of cholera epidemics may be related to the dominant wind direction over land by presenting the influence of the wind direction on windborn dissemination by flying insects, which may serve as vectors. Chironomids ("non-biting midges“) exist in the majority of freshwater aquatic habitats, especially in estuarine and organic-rich water bodies typical to Vibrio cholerae. Chironomid adults emerge into the air for mating and dispersion. They are highly mobile, huge in number and found frequently in the air at various elevations. The huge number of chironomid egg masses attached to hard substrate on the water surface, serve as a reservoir for the free-living Vibrio bacteria. Both male and female, while emerging from the water, may carry the cholera bacteria. In experimental simulation, it was demonstrated that the cholera-bearing adult midges are carried by the wind, and transmit the bacteria from one body of water to another. In our previous study, the geographic diffusions of three cholera outbreaks were examined through their linkage with the wind direction: a) the progress of Vibrio cholerae O1 biotype El Tor in Africa during 1970–1971 and b) again in 2005–2006; and c) the rapid spread of Vibrio cholerae O139 over India during 1992–1993. Using data and map of cholera dissemination (WHO database) and mean monthly SLP and geopotential data (NOAA NCEP-NCAR database), analysis of air pressure data at sea level and at several altitudes over Africa, India and Bangladesh show a correspondence between the dominant wind direction and the intra-continental spread of cholera. The results support the hypothesis that aeroplankton (the tiny life forms that float in the air and that may be caught and carried upward by the wind, landing far from their origin) carry the cholera bacteria from one body of water to an adjacent one. In addition to these findings, the current follow-up study will present new results regarding the possible involvement of winds in the spreading of cholera in recent outbreaks (2010-2013). The findings may improve the understanding of how climatic factors are involved in the rapid distribution of new strains throughout a vast continental area. Awareness of the aerial transfer of Vibrio cholerae may assist health authorities by improving the prediction of the disease’s geographic dissemination.

Keywords: cholera, Vibrio cholerae, wind direction, Vibrio cholerae dissemination

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Authors: Kanica Goel, Nilam

Abstract:

Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death worldwide and hence a great challenge for every nation. Thus, it becomes utmost essential to prevent and reduce the spread of infectious disease among humans. Mathematical models help to better understand the transmission dynamics and spread of infections. For this purpose, in the present article, we have proposed a nonlinear time-delayed SVIRS (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) mathematical model with nonlinear type incidence rate and nonlinear type treatment rate. Analytical study of the model shows that model exhibits two types of equilibrium points, namely, disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Further, for the long-term behavior of the model, stability of the model is discussed with the help of basic reproduction number R₀ and we showed that disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is less than one and unstable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is greater than one for the time lag τ≥0. Furthermore, when basic reproduction number R₀ is one, using center manifold theory and Casillo-Chavez and Song theorem, we showed that the model undergoes transcritical bifurcation. Moreover, numerical simulations are being carried out using MATLAB 2012b to illustrate the theoretical results.

Keywords: nonlinear incidence rate, nonlinear treatment rate, stability, time delayed SVIRS epidemic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 127