Search results for: ecological risk index

Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

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Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

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Authors: Toan Vu Duc, Son Ha Viet

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This research presents the first comprehensive survey of congener profiles (7 indicator congeners) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in sediment samples covering ten sites in CauBay River, Vietnam. Chemical analyses were carried out in gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) for tri- to hepta- brominated congeners. Results pointed out a non-homogenous contamination of the sediment with ∑7 PBDE values ranging from 8.93 to 25.64ng g−1, reflecting moderate to low contamination closely in conformity to other Asian aquatic environments. The general order of decreasing congener contribution to the total load was: BDE 47 > 99 > 100 > 154, similar to the distribution pattern worldwide. PBDEs had rare risks in the sediment of studied area. However, due to the propensity of PBDEs to accumulate in various compartments of wildlife and human food webs, evaluation of biological tissues should be undertaken as a high priority.

Keywords: residue, risk assessment, PBDEs, sediment

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Authors: Vladimir Korovkin, Albert Park, Evgeny Kaganer

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The paper studies the second-level digital divide (the one defined by the way how digital technology is used in everyday life) between regions of the Russian Federation. The paper offers a systemic review of literature on the measurement of the digital divide; based upon this it suggests a composite Digital Life Index, that captures the complex multi-dimensional character of the phenomenon. The model of the index studies separately the digital supply and demand across seven independent dimensions providing for 14 subindices. The Index is based on Internet-borne data, a distinction from traditional research approaches that rely on official statistics or surveys. Regression analysis is used to determine the relative importance of factors like income, human capital, and policy in determining the digital divide. The result of the analysis suggests that the digital divide is driven more by the differences in demand (defined by consumer competencies) than in supply; the role of income is insignificant, and the quality of human capital is the key determinant of the divide. The paper advances the existing methodological literature on the issue and can also inform practical decision-making regarding the strategies of national and regional digital development.

Keywords: digital transformation, second-level digital divide, composite index, digital policy, regional development, Russia

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Authors: Xincheng He, Weijun Gao, Gangwei Cai

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In the process of rapid urbanization, large-scale industrial production, and unreasonable planning and construction have caused various ecological and environmental problems, while hindered the sustainable development of cities. The ecological district not only realizes the coordinated development of society, economy, and environment but also conforms to the trend of smart contraction of the development of cities in China from the periphery to the center. This paper reviews the development of China's ecological district, including the full life cycle process of policy, planning, implementation, and operation. Based on sorting out the concept, connotation, and development status of China’s ecological district, the relationship between the construction of the ecological district and the sustainable city is discussed. Summarizing the development trend of the ecological district, the ecological district should combine the construction of smart cities, actively respond to the digital information era, and improve the construction of the ecological district system. It proposes that the future direction of city's sustainable development needs to change from a thematic focus on ecology to the common urbanization of humanity, society, and nature. Focusing on people-oriented, ecological, and digital future communities will become an important construction method for the city's sustainable smart contraction.

Keywords: eco-district, smart contraction, sustainable development, future community

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Authors: Mohammad Alkhatatbeh, Nehad Ayoub, Nizar Mhaidat, Nesreen Saadeh, Lisa Lincz

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CD36 is involved in the development of atherosclerosis by enhancing macrophage endocytosis of oxidized-low density lipoproteins and foam cell formation. Soluble CD36 (sCD36) was found to be elevated in type 2 diabetic patients and was supposed to act as a marker of insulin resistance and atherosclerosis. In young subjects, sCD36 was associated with cardiovascular risk factors including obesity and hypertriglyceridemia. This study was conducted to further investigate the relationship between plasma sCD36 and cardiovascular risk factors among middle-aged patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and healthy controls. SCD36 concentrations were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) for 41 patients with MetS and 36 healthy controls. Data for other variables were obtained from patients' medical records. SCD36 concentrations were relatively low compared to most other studies and were not significantly different between the MetS group and controls (P-value=0.17). SCD36 was also not correlated with age, body mass index, glucose, lipid profile, serum electrolytes and blood counts. SCD36 was not significantly different between subjects with obesity, hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, hypertension or cardiovascular disease and those without these abnormalities (P-value > 0.05). The inconsistency between results reported in this study and other studies may be unique to the study population or be a result of the lack of a reliable standardized method for determining absolute sCD36 concentrations. However, further investigations are required to assess CD36 tissue expression in the study population and to assess the accuracy of various commercially available sCD36 ELISA kits. Thus, the availability of a standardized simple sCD36 ELISA that could be performed in any basic laboratory would be more favorable to the specialized flow cytometry methods that detect CD36+ microparticles if it was to be used as a biomarker.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, CD36, cardiovascular risk, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

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In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Ngonidzashe Moyo, Mmaditshaba Rapatsa

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The primary objective of this study was to determine heavy metal contamination in the water, sediment, grass and fish in Sand River, South Africa. This river passes through an urban area and sewage effluent is discharged into it. Water from the Sand river is subsequently used for irrigation downstream of the sewage treatment works. The suitability of this water and the surrounding boreholes for irrigation was determined. This study was undertaken between January, 2014 and January, 2015. Monthly samples were taken from four sites. Sites 1 was upstream of the Polokwane Wastewater Treatment Plant, sites 2, 3 and 4 were downstream. Ten boreholes in the vicinity of the Sand River were randomly selected and the water was tested for heavy metal contamination. The concentration of heavy metals in Sand River water followed the order Mn>Fe>Pb>Cu≥Zn≥Cd. Manganese concentration averaged 0.34 mg/L. Heavy metal concentration in the sediment, grass and fish followed the order Fe>Mn>Zn>Cu>Pb>Cd. The bioaccumulation factor from grass to fish was highest in manganese (19.25), followed by zinc (16.39) and iron (14.14). Soil permeability index (PI) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) were used to determine the suitability of Sand River and borehole water for irrigation. The PI index for Sand River water was 75.1% and this indicates that Sand River water is suitable for irrigation of crops. The PI index for the borehole water ranged from 65.8-72.8% and again this indicates suitability of borehole water for crop irrigation. The sodium adsorption ratio also indicated that both Sand River and borehole water were suitable for irrigation. A risk assessment study is recommended to determine the suitability of the fish for human consumption.

Keywords: bioaccumulation, bioavailability, heavy metals, sodium adsorption ratio

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Authors: S. B. D. Samarasinghe, Malini Herath

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Participatory planning is a very important process for decision making and choosing the best alternative options for community welfare, development of the society and its interactions among community and professionals. People’s involvement is considered as the key guidance in participatory planning. Presently, Participatory planning is being used in many fields. It's not only limited to planning but also to disaster management, poverty, housing, etc. In the past, Disaster management practice was a top-down approach, but it raised many issues as it was converted to a bottom-up approach. There are several approaches that can aid disaster management. Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) is a very successful participatory approach to risk management that is often successfully applied by other disaster-prone countries. In the local context, CBDRM has been applied to prevent Diseases as well as to prevent disasters such as landslides, tsunamis and floods. From three years before, Sri Lanka has initiated the CBDRM approach to minimize landslide vulnerability. Hence, this study mainly focuses on the impact of CBDRM approaches on landslide hazards. Also to identify their successes and failures from both implementing parties and community. This research is carried out based on a qualitative method combined with a descriptive research approach. A successful framework was prepared via a literature review. Case studies were selected considering landslide CBDRM programs which were implemented by Disaster Management Center and National Building Research Organization in Badulla. Their processes were evaluated. Data collection is done through interviews and informal discussions. Then their ideas were quantified by using the Relative Effectiveness index. The resulting numerical value was used to rank the program effectiveness and their success, failures and impacting factors. Results show that there are several failures among implementing parties and the community. Overcoming those factors can make way for better conduction of future CBDRM programs.

Keywords: community-based disaster risk management, disaster management, preparedness, landslide

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Authors: Ahmed Sami Hammami, Mohamed Jellazi

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Background: The aim of the study is to evaluate the magnitude of different psychological outcomes among Tunisian health care professionals (HCP) during the COVID-19 pandemic and to identify the associated factors. Methods: HCP completed a cross-sectional questionnaire from April 4th to April, 28th 2020. The survey collected demographic information, factors that may interfere with the psychological outcomes, behavior changes and mental health measurements. The latter was assessed through 3 scales; the 7-item questions Insomnia Severity Index, the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire and the 2-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify factors associated with psychological outcomes. Results: A total of 503 HCP successfully completed the survey; among those, n=493 consented to enroll in the study, 411 [83.4%] were physicians, 323 [64.2%] were women and 271 [55%] had a second-line working position. A significant proportion of HCP had anxiety 35.7%, depression 35.1% and insomnia 23.7%. Females, those with psychiatric history and those using public transport exhibited the highest proportions for overall symptoms compared to other groups e.g., depression among females vs. males: 44,9% vs. 18,2%, P=0.00. Those with a previous medical history and nurses, had more anxiety and insomnia compared to other groups e.g. anxiety among nurses vs. interns/residents vs. attending 45,1% vs 36,1% vs 27,5%; p=0.04. Multivariable logistic regression showed that female gender was a risk factor for all psychological outcomes e.g. female sex increased the odds of anxiety by 2.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1, 78-4, 60; P=0.00, whereas having a psychiatric history was a risk factor for both anxiety and insomnia. (e.g. for insomnia OR=2,86; 95% [CI], 1,78-4,60; P=0.00), Having protective equipment was associated with lower risk for depression (OR=0,41; 95% CI, 0,27-0,62; P=0.00) and anxiety. Physical activity was also protective against depression and anxiety (OR=0,41, 95% CI, 0,25-0,67, P=0.00). Conclusion: Psychological symptoms are usually undervalued among HCP, though the COVID-19 pandemic played a major role in exacerbating this burden. Prompt psychological support should be endorsed and simple measures such as physical activity and ensuring the necessary protection are paramount to improve mental health outcomes and the quality of care provided to patients.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, health care professionals, mental health, protective factors, psychological symptoms, risk factors

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Authors: Waleed Afzal Naveed, Muhammd Dildar Gogi, Muhammad Sufian, Muhammad Junaid Nisar, Mubashir Iqbal, Hafiz Muhammad Waqas Amjad, Muhammad Hamza Khaliq

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Present study was carried out to evaluate the performance of Slow-Released Formulations (SRF) of methyl eugenol with Carnauba wax in orchard of University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Pakistan against fruit flies. Carnauba wax was mixed with methyl eugenol in nine ratios (10:90, 20:80, 30:70, 40:60, 50:50, 60:40, 70:30, 80:20 and 90:10). The results revealed that SRFCN-9 trapped 35.3 flies/day/trap, exhibited an attractancy index (AI) of 50.35%, proved strongly attractive SRFCN for B. zonata and was categorized as Class-III slow-released formulation (Attractive Index > 50%). The SRFCN-1, SRFCN-2, SRFCN-3, SRFCN-4, SRFCN-5, SRFCN-6, SRFCN-7 and SRFCN-8 trapped 2.0, 5.3, 3.3, 4.0, 5.7, 12.0, 9.7 and 14.3 flies/day/trap respectively exhibited an attractancy index (AI) of -70.73%, -37.25%, -55.55%, -48.93%, -34.61%, 1.40%, -9.37% and 10.25% Attractive Index respectively, proved little or non attractive slow-released formulation and was categorized as Class-I slow-released formulation for B. zonata (Attractive Index < 11%). Results revealed that the Slow-Released Formulation containing 10% Carnauba wax with 90% methyl eugenol trapped maximum number of flies of over 30 days.

Keywords: slow-released formulation, Bactrocera zonata, Carnauba wax, methyl euginol

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Authors: Namik Kemal Sonmez

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Based passive remote sensing technologies have been widely used in many plant species. However, use of these techniques in orange trees is limited. In this study, the relationships between chlorophyll content (Chl) and calculated red edge (RE) and vegetation index values of the citrus leave at different growth stages were formed the basis for the analysis. Canopy reflectance by hand-held spectroradiometer and total Chl analysis at the lab were measured simultaneously, from the random samples taken from four different parts of an orange orchard. Plant materials consisted of four different age groups of 15, 20, 25, and 30 years old orange trees. Reflectance measurements were conducted between 450 and 900 nanometer (nm) wavelength at four different bands (3 visible bands and 1 near-infrared band) at the four basic physiological periods (flowering, fruit setting, fruit maturity, and dormancy) of orange trees. According to the statistical analysis conducted, there was a strong relationship between the chlorophyll content and calculated indexes (p ≤ 0.01; R²= 0.925 at red edge and R²= 0.986 at vegetation index) at the fruit setting stage of 20 years old trees. Again at this stage, fruit setting, total Chl content values among all orange trees were significantly correlated at the RE and VI with the R² values of 0.672 and 0.635 at the 0.001 level, respectively. This indicated that the relationships between Chl content and index values were very strong at this stage, in comparison to the other stages.

Keywords: spectroradiometer, citrus, chlorophyll, reflectance, index

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity

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Authors: Zewdneh Zana Zate

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The study focuses on the evolutionary and ecological genomics of both wild and cultivated Coffea arabica L. at its center of origin, Ethiopia, aiming to uncover how this vital species may withstand future climate changes. Utilizing bioclimatic models, we project the future distribution of Arabica under varied climate scenarios for 2050 and 2080, identifying potential conservation zones and immediate risk areas. Through whole-genome resequencing of accessions from Ethiopian gene banks, this research assesses genetic diversity and divergence between wild and cultivated populations. It explores relationships, demographic histories, and potential hybridization events among Coffea arabica accessions to better understand the species' origins and its connection to parental species. This genomic analysis also seeks to detect signs of natural or artificial selection across populations. Integrating these genomic discoveries with ecological data, the study evaluates the current and future ecological and genomic vulnerabilities of wild Coffea arabica, emphasizing necessary adaptations for survival. We have identified key genomic regions linked to environmental stress tolerance, which could be crucial for breeding more resilient Arabica varieties. Additionally, our ecological modeling predicted a contraction of suitable habitats, urging immediate conservation actions in identified key areas. This research not only elucidates the evolutionary history and adaptive strategies of Arabica but also informs conservation priorities and breeding strategies to enhance resilience to climate change. By synthesizing genomic and ecological insights, we provide a robust framework for developing effective management strategies aimed at sustaining Coffea arabica, a species of profound global importance, in its native habitat under evolving climatic conditions.

Keywords: coffea arabica, climate change adaptation, conservation strategies, genomic resilience

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Authors: Sunita Patel

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Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity as well as mortality in India. Objective of this study is to examine CVDs prevalence and identify their behavioral and cultural risk factors with the help of SAGE-2007 data conducted on 6th states in India. Findings reveal that 18.3% of people diagnosed with CVDs in India. Higher disease occurs in an increasing rate between ages of 30-39 having OR 2.45 (CI: 1.66-3.63) and 70+ age OR 7.45 (CI: 4.82-11.49) times higher compare to 18-29 age group respectively. Wealth quintile higher CVD occurs as 3rd in 60% (CI: 1.16-2.21) and in richest 5th quintile 58% (CI: 1.13-2.21) contrast to lowest quintile. Relative risk depicted that 22.4% in moderate and 44% in vigorous activity have less chance of diseases compare to who performed no work and those who consumed alcohol. Results reveal that policy prospect should be recommended and that it would be beneficial for awareness of people and their future.

Keywords: behavioral risk, cultural risk, cardio-vascular diseases, wealth quintile

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Authors: George Mariano Soriano

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In this study, a Rapid Earthquake Risk Ranking Criteria was formulated by integrating various existing maps and databases by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) software, the above-mentioned maps and databases were used in extracting seismic hazard parameters and bridge vulnerability characteristics in order to rank the seismic damage risk rating of bridges in the National Capital Region.

Keywords: bridge, earthquake, GIS, hazard, risk, vulnerability

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Authors: Dalal Tarfaoui, Salah Zkim

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Today, environmental sustainability is everyone’s concern as it contributes in many aspects to a country's development. Morocco is also aware of the increasing threats to its natural resources. Accordingly, many projects and research have been discussed pointing mainly to water security, pollution, desertification, and land degradation, but few studies bothered to dig into the human demeanor to disclose its ecological behavior. Human behavior is accountable for environment deterioration in the first place, but we keep fighting the symptoms instead of limiting the root causes. In the conceptual framework highlighted in the present article, semi-structured interviews have been conducted using a grounded theory approach. Initially this study will serve as a pilot study and a cornerstone to approve a bigger project now in progress. Beyond the existing general ecological measures (GEM), this study has chosen the grounded theory approach to bring out firsthand insights, and probe to which extent an ecological dimension exists in Morocco as a developing country. The discourse of the ecological behavior within the Moroccan context is seen in more realist, social, and community philosophy. The study has revealed an appreciative ecological behavior that is unfortunately repressed by variables beyond people’s control, which would prevent the people’s environmental good intentions to be translated into real ecological actions.

Keywords: ecological behavior, ecological dimension, variables beyond people’s control, Morocco

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Authors: Mohamed Fairooz Abdul Khir

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The linkage between liability for risk and legitimacy of reward is a governing principle that must be fully observed in financial transactions. It is the cornerstone of any Islamic business or financial deal. The absence of risk taking principle may give rise to numerous prohibited elements such as ribā, gharar and gambling that violate the objectives of financial transactions. However, fiqhī domains from which it emanates have not been clearly spelled out by the scholars. In addition, the concept of risk taking in relation to contemporary risks associated with financial contracts, such as credit risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and market risk, needs further scrutiny as regard their Sharīʿah bases. Hence, this study is imperatively significant to prove that absence of risk taking concept in Islamic financial instruments give rise to prohibited elements particularly ribā. This study is primarily intended to clarify the concept of risk in Islamic financial transactions from the fiqhī perspective and evaluate analytically the selected issues involving risk taking based on the established concept of risk taking from fiqhī viewpoint. The selected issues are amongst others charging cost of fund on defaulting customers, holding the lessee liable for total loss of leased asset under ijārah thumma al-bayʿ and capital guarantee under mushārakah based instruments. This is a library research in which data has been collected from various materials such as classical fiqh books, regulators’ policy guidelines and journal articles. This study employed deductive and inductive methods to analyze the data critically in search for conclusive findings. It suggests that business risks have to be evaluated based on their subjects namely (i) property (māl) and (ii) work (ʿamal) to ensure that Islamic financial instruments structured based on certain Sharīʿah principles are not diverted from the risk taking concept embedded in them. Analysis of the above selected cases substantiates that when risk taking principle is breached, the prohibited elements such as ribā, gharar and maysir do arise and that they impede the realization of the maqāṣid al-Sharīʿah intended from Islamic financial contracts.

Keywords: Islamic finance, ownership risk, ribā, risk taking

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Authors: Yuan Tian, Benhe Gao

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This paper aims to investigate a two stage supply chain of one leading supplier and one following retailer that experiences two factors perturbation out of supplier's production cost, retailer's marginal cost and retail price in stochastic demand environment. Granted that risk neutral condition has long been discussed, little attention has been given to disruptions under the premise of risk neutral supplier and risk aversion retailer. We establish the optimal order quantity and revealed the profit distribution coefficient in risk-neutral static model, make adjustment under disruption scenario, and then select utility function method for risk aversion model. Using buy-back contract policy, the improvement of parameters can achieve channel coordination where Pareto optimal is realized.

Keywords: supply chain coordination, disruption management, buy-back contract, lose aversion

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Authors: Mary L. G. S. Senna, Afonso R. Aquino, Veruska C. Dutra, Carlos H. C. Tolentino

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The quality of life index, despite elucidating many discussions, the conceptual subjectivity of the term does not show precision, and consequently, many researchers seek to develop methods aiming to measure this concept, bringing it to a more concrete approach. In this study, the quality of life index method was used to analyze the population of Mateiros, Tocantins, Brazil for quality of life. After data collection, it was compared the quality of life index between the population and the group of beneficiaries of the Brazilian government assistance program Bolsa Família (Family Allowance). Some of the people interviewed receive financial aid from the federal government program Bolsa Família (22%). Comparisons were made among the final score of the quality of life index of the Mateiros population and the following factors: Gender, age, education, those working or not with tourism and those who receive or do not receive the Bolsa Família. It was observed that only the factor, Bolsa Família (p-score 0.0138), shows an association with quality of life improvement, noticing that those who have financial aid had a higher quality of life improvement than the rest of the population. It was concluded that, government assistance has shown a decisive element on the enhancement of Mateiros population quality of life, indicating that similar actions should be maintained.

Keywords: quality of life index, government aid to families, sustainable tourism, Bolsa Familia

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Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Atieh Asgari Toorzani

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Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users since they do not have a protective shell. One of the most common collisions for them is pedestrian-vehicle at intersections. In order to develop appropriate countermeasures to improve safety for them, researches have to be conducted to identify the factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such collisions. More specifically, this study investigates factors such as the influence of walking alone or having a baby while crossing the street, the observable age of pedestrian, the speed of pedestrians and the speed of approaching vehicles on risk perception of pedestrians. A nested logit model was used for modeling the behavioral structure of pedestrians. The results show that the presence of more lanes at intersections and not being alone especially having a baby while crossing, decrease the probability of taking a risk among pedestrians. Also, it seems that teenagers show more risky behaviors in crossing the street in comparison to other age groups. Also, the speed of approaching vehicles was considered significant. The probability of risk taking among pedestrians decreases by increasing the speed of approaching vehicle in both the first and the second lanes of crossings.

Keywords: pedestrians, intersection, nested logit, risk

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Authors: Ezri Coda, Kris Justine Miparanum, Relvin Jay Sale

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The study dealt on suicide risk level of college students in UM Tagum College. The primary goal of the study was to assess the level of suicide risk among students at the UM Tagum College in terms of perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation and acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury utilizing quantitative non- experimental study with 380 students in UM Tagum College as respondents of the study. Mean was the statistical tools used for the data treatment. Moreover, the study aims to determine the mean of the level of the suicide risk assessment in terms of program, type of student, age, year level, civil status and gender, and lastly, to design an intervention program for those identified students with high suicide risk. Results showed a low level of suicide risk in terms of perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation and acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury.

Keywords: suicide risk, perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation, acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury, UM Tagum College, Philippines

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Authors: Mohamed Chabi

Abstract:

The project of helping students at risk started at the Math department in the new foundation program at Qatar University in the fall 2012 semester. The purpose was to find ways to help students who were struggling with their math courses Elementary algebra or Precalculus course due to many factors. Department had formed the Committee “students at Risk” at the start of 12-13 to assist struggling students in our math courses to get their studies on track. A mechanism was developed to support students who are at risk using a developed E-Monitoring system. E-Monitoring system was developed to manage automatically all transactions relevant to the students’ attendance, Students ‘‘warning Students’’ grading, etc. E-Monitoring System produce various statistics such as, Overall course statistics, Performance, Students at Risk… to help department to develop a higher quality of education in the Foundation Program at Math department. The mechanism was studies and evaluated. Whatever the cause, the sooner we identify students who are not performing well academically, the sooner we can provide, or direct them to the resources that are available to them. In this paper, we outline the mechanism and its effect on students’ performance. The collected data from various exams shows that students had benefited from the mechanism.

Keywords: students at risk, e-monitoring system, warning students, performance

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Authors: Puttharapong Sakulwaropas, Uraiwan Jaroengeratikun

Abstract:

Casualty insurance business, the optimal premium pricing and adequate cost for an insurance company are important in risk management. Normally, the insurance pure premium can be determined by multiplying the claim frequency with the claim cost. The aim of this research was to study in the application of generalized linear models to select the risk factor for model of claim frequency and claim cost for estimating a pure premium. In this study, the data set was the claim of comprehensive motor insurance, which was provided by one of the insurance company in Thailand. The results of this study found that the risk factors significantly related to pure premium at the 0.05 level consisted of no claim bonus (NCB) and used of the car (Car code).

Keywords: generalized linear models, risk factor, pure premium, regression model

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Authors: Nuha Alamro

Abstract:

Besides achieving of weight loss, Bariatric surgery (BS) shown metabolic improvement including reduction of cardiovascular disease, insulin resistance and diabetes. This study aimed to measure BS effects on Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) among patients who underwent BS. Additionally, to determine the effect of BS on TSH among euthyroid obese patients. A Retrospective follow-up study was conducted in King Abdullah Medical City. A total of 160 participants who underwent BS and completed one year of follow ups. Medical history, biochemical, anthropometric, and hormonal parameters were evaluated at baseline and 3-12 months after BS. International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria were used to diagnose MetS pre and postoperative. The mean age of participants was 41.9 ± 10.6 with Body Mass Index (BMI) of 48.8 ± 7.3. After 3 months, Systolic, Diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), glycated haemoglobin (HBA1C), Low-density lipoprotein (LDL), cholesterol, triglycerides and Thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) were significantly decrease (P < 0.001). Significant decrease was seen in Mets, BMI, FRS, SBP, DBP, HBA1C, LDL, triglycerides, cholesterol, liver enzyme, with significant increase in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) level 12 months post-op (P < 0.001). After 1 year, the prevalence of MetS, DM, HTN, FRS were significantly decrease from 72.5%, 43.1%, 78.1%, 11.4 to 16.3%, 9.4%, 22.5% and 5.4, respectively. Besides achieving substantial weight loss, MetS resolution was linked to improvement in cardiovascular risk profile.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, cardiovascular disease, metabolic syndrome, thyroid stimulating hormone

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Authors: N. Fuad, M. N. Taib, R. Jailani, M. E. Marwan

Abstract:

This paper discusses on power spectral density (PSD) characteristics which are extracted from three-dimensional (3D) electroencephalogram (EEG) models. The EEG signal recording was conducted on 150 healthy subjects. Development of 3D EEG models involves pre-processing of raw EEG signals and construction of spectrogram images. Then, the values of maximum PSD were extracted as features from the model. These features are analysed using mean relative power (MRP) and different mean relative power (DMRP) technique to observe the pattern among different brain balancing indexes. The results showed that by implementing these techniques, the pattern of brain balancing indexes can be clearly observed. Some patterns are indicates between index 1 to index 5 for left frontal (LF) and right frontal (RF).

Keywords: power spectral density, 3D EEG model, brain balancing, mean relative power, different mean relative power

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Authors: Mohammad Hosseini

Abstract:

Ultrafast transistor laser investigated here has the graded index separate confinement heterostructure (GRIN-SCH) in its base region. Resonance-free optical frequency response with -3dB bandwidth of more than 26 GHz has been achieved for a single quantum well transistor laser by using graded index layers of AlξGa1-ξAs (ξ: 0.1→0) on the left side of the quantum well and AlξGa1-ξAs (ξ: 0.05→0) in the right side of quantum well. All required parameters, including quantum well and base transit time, optical confinement factor and spontaneous recombination lifetime, have been calculated using a self-consistent charge control model.

Keywords: transistor laser, ultrafast, GRIN-SCH, -3db optical bandwidth, AlξGa1-ξAs

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Authors: Zahra Yazdani Paraii, Zohreh Yazdani Paraei

Abstract:

Many urban designers and planners have been involved in the design of environmentally friendly or nature adaptable urban development models due to increase in urban populations in the recent century, limitation on natural resources, climate change, and lack of enough water and food. Ecological city is one of the latest models proposed to accomplish the latter goal. In this work, the existing establishing indicators of the ecological city are used regarding energy, water, land use and transportation issues. The model is used to compare the function of traditional settlements of Iran. The result of investigation shows that the specifications and functions of the traditional settlements of Iran fit well into the ecological city model. It is found that the inhabitants of the old cities and villages in Iran had founded ecological cities based on their knowledge of the environment and its natural opportunities and limitations.

Keywords: ecological city, traditional city, urban design, environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 237